来源：券商中国 作者：陈曦
港股兔年开门红！
1月26日，港股春节后首个交易日，恒生指数、恒生科技指数均实现高开高走。截至收盘，香港恒生指数收涨2.37%，续刷去年4月以来新高；恒生科技指数收涨4.26%，续刷去年7月以来新高。
多个热门板块迎来集体“爆发”，汽车板块大涨，“蔚小理”均涨超10%；春节档总票房破55亿，影视板块开盘走强，欢喜传媒一度涨近30%；此外，春节期间出行人数大幅增加，旅游股也迎来大涨，中国中免大涨8%再创上市新高；午后，港股半导体板块走强，华虹半导体涨超6%；港股地产和物业管理股走高，德信中国涨近10%，合景泰富集团、龙湖集团涨近8%，融创服务、碧桂园服务涨近5%；互联网科技股全线上涨，腾讯控股涨3.8%收复400港元关口，小米集团涨12%、哔哩哔哩涨8%。
有机构表示，看好港股主要基于三大逻辑，即跌幅足够深、估值足够低、政策足够好。虽然恒指已经自低位反弹近一半，但目前恒指市盈率距离历史中位数仍有可观的距离。盈利和估值预期都会恢复，今年的上涨空间可期，值得期待。
腾讯控股收复400港元，小米集团涨超12%
热门股方面，腾讯控股全天高开高走，截至收盘涨3.8%，报408.2港元/股，收复400港元关口，创去年3月3日以来约11个月新高。四季报数据显示，2022年第四季度，腾讯控股获公募基金主动增持的数据领跑。
值得注意的是，腾讯控股此前在1月20日公布发行新股以支付员工的“开年利是”。公告称决议发行合共977.16万股新股，以根据股份奖励计划向不少于6600位奖励人士发行合共671.22万股；及因实物分派作出的调整就相关奖励发行合共305.94万股额外奖励股份。认购款项195.43元。
小米集团大涨超12%。此前，针对网络曝光的关于小米MS11车型的图片，小米公关部总经理王化发文称，的确是二级供应商保密的设计文件泄密；该供应商仅仅是为模具打样的供应商，泄密的文件是非常早期的招标过程的设计稿，并非最终文件；公司一定会根据与该供应商签订的保密协议进行严肃处理。
其他互联网科技股中，哔哩哔哩涨8%，阿里健康、京东健康涨超4%，京东涨2.76%。
汽车股集体走强，“蔚小理”涨超10%
港股汽车板块集体走强，截至收盘，蔚来-SW涨12.94%、理想汽车-W涨12.16%、小鹏汽车-W涨10.47%、长城汽车涨7.75%、比亚迪股份涨6.01%。
值得注意的是，周三美股收盘后，特斯拉公布了2022年四季度财报。公司营收、季度利润好于预期。财报公布后，特斯拉盘后涨超1%。今年以来，特斯拉的股价累计上涨了17%，优于同期标普500指数累计4.6%的上涨。
财报显示，该公司四季度营业收入同比增长37%至243.18亿美元，超过分析师预期的241.56亿美元，上个季度为177.19亿美元。净利润为36.87亿美元，超过预期的23.21亿美元。该公司四季度调整后净利润同比增长43%至41.06亿美元。
该公司四季度自由现金流14.2亿美元，市场预估为31.3亿美元。特斯拉在四季度通过出售碳排放信用额度获得的收入达到4.67亿美元，环比增加63.3%。特斯拉表示，在第四季度，公司生产了超过43.9万辆汽车，交付了超过40.5万辆汽车。2022年，汽车交付量同比增长40%至131万辆，产量同比增长47%至137万辆。
春节档总票房破55亿，欢喜传媒一度涨近30%
猫眼专业版数据显示，2023年1月26日14时28分，2023年春节档（1月21日-1月27日）总票房（含预售）破55亿。《满江红》《流浪地球2》《熊出没·伴我“熊芯”》分列春节档票房前三位。
1月26日，港股影视股集体走强，早盘时欢喜传媒一度涨近30%，IMAX中国一度涨超10%。截至收盘，欢喜传媒涨10.42%、IMAX中国涨6.44%、数字王国涨4.42%、猫眼娱乐涨3.31%。
东吴证券认为，展望2023年，随着影院营业率回升，此前积压的优质库存影片有望陆续定档，同时2022年11月以来，国产及进口影片审核持续释放积极信号，我们看好影片审核边际向好，优质内容供给有望稳步扩容，提振观影需求，加速票房复苏。优质影片储备丰富，我们看好板块盈利、估值双修复机会。2022年国内电影票房仅为2019年的47%，相比2021年国内73%及2022年北美65%、日本70%的恢复率，票房复苏空间可期。
上海证券表示，近期电视剧、动画片、电影均有优质内容供给上线，影视剧行业开始出现积极信号，同时XR新型硬件终端也有望重塑影视板块长逻辑。内容行业供给决定需求，目前内容市场处于弱供给强需求的市场格局，叠加疫情影响，影视板块商业模式及长逻辑亟需重塑。我们认为传媒整体政策面仍处于边际改善的上升周期，预计影视板块将经历“需求复苏”及“价值重估”两个阶段，分别对应短周期逻辑及长周期逻。
旅游股大涨，中国中免涨超8%再创上市新高
此外，春节期间出行人数大幅增加，旅游股也迎来大涨。中国中免大涨8%再创上市新高、东瀛游涨2.38%、携程集团涨2.31%。
消息方面，在兔年春节前4天，包括酒店、民宿、门票在内的旅游多业态已反超2019年同期。与去年春节同期相比，民宿预订量同比增长超2倍，门票预订量同比增长超5成。内地游客的出境机票预订量同比增长超4倍，出境酒店预订量同比增长超2倍。
以飞猪发布的春节出游数据，在兔年春节前4天，境内长途游订单量同比增长超500%；出境游方面，33个国家及地区的出境游相关商品预订量翻倍增长。国内机票订单量同比增长超40%，火车票订单量同比增长近80%。成都、上海、广州、北京、重庆是热门目的地。
华泰证券发布港股策略研报称，截至1月24日，春节假期期间消费数据恢复良好，春运客运量修复至2019年同期57%水平，多项旅游业务反超2019年同期，电影票房修复至2019年同期105%水平，春节假期前四日北京超市等企业销售额较2019年同期增长13.7%，国内线下经济回暖；海外经济数据方面，欧元区1月PMI数据超预期转好，美元指数承压。资金面角度，2022四季度，公募基金对港股整体配置强度升至5.8%，预计或仍有一定配置空间。
编辑/lambor
Source: Securities firm Chinese author: Chen Xi
Hong Kong stocks get off to a good start in the year of the Rabbit!
1月26日，港股春节后首个交易日，恒生指数、恒生科技指数均实现高开高走。截至收盘，香港恒生指数收涨2.37%，续刷去年4月以来新高；恒生科技指数收涨4.26%，续刷去年7月以来新高。
On January 26, the first trading day of Hong Kong stocks after the Spring Festival, both the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Technology Index opened high. By the end of the day, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index closed up 2.37%, its highest level since April last year, while the Hang Seng Technology Index closed up 4.26%, its highest level since July last year.
多个热门板块迎来集体“爆发”，汽车板块大涨，“蔚小理”均涨超10%；春节档总票房破55亿，影视板块开盘走强，欢喜传媒一度涨近30%；此外，春节期间出行人数大幅增加，旅游股也迎来大涨，中国中免大涨8%再创上市新高；午后，港股半导体板块走强，华虹半导体涨超6%；港股地产和物业管理股走高，德信中国涨近10%，合景泰富集团、龙湖集团涨近8%，融创服务、碧桂园服务涨近5%；互联网科技股全线上涨，腾讯控股涨3.8%收复400港元关口，小米集团涨12%、哔哩哔哩涨8%。
A number of hot plates ushered in a collective "outbreak", the automobile plate rose sharply, and "Wei Xiaoli" all rose more than 10%; the total box office of the Spring Festival exceeded 5.5 billion, the film and television plate opened strong, and happy media once rose nearly 30%; in addition, during the Spring Festival, the number of travelers increased significantly, tourism stocks also ushered in a big rise, China Zhongjie rose 8% to hit a new listing high; in the afternoon, the Hong Kong stock semiconductor plate strengthened, Hua Hong Semiconductor rose more than 6%. Hong Kong real estate and property management stocks rose, with Dexin China up nearly 10%, Hexin Pacific Group and Longfor Group up nearly 8%, Sunac Services and Country Garden Services Holdings up nearly 5%, Internet technology stocks rose across the board, Tencent rose 3.8% to recover HK $400, XIAOMI Group rose 12%, Bilibili Inc. rose 8%.
有机构表示，看好港股主要基于三大逻辑，即跌幅足够深、估值足够低、政策足够好。虽然恒指已经自低位反弹近一半，但目前恒指市盈率距离历史中位数仍有可观的距离。盈利和估值预期都会恢复，今年的上涨空间可期，值得期待。
Some institutions said that being optimistic about Hong Kong stocks is mainly based on three major logic, that is, the decline is deep enough, the valuation is low enough, and the policy is good enough. Although the Hang Seng Index has rebounded by nearly half from its lows, the price-to-earnings ratio of the Hang Seng Index is still a considerable distance from the historical median. Earnings and valuation are expected to recover, and there is room for growth this year, which is worth looking forward to.
腾讯控股收复400港元，小米集团涨超12%
Tencent recovered HK $400, XIAOMI Group rose by more than 12%
热门股方面，腾讯控股全天高开高走，截至收盘涨3.8%，报408.2港元/股，收复400港元关口，创去年3月3日以来约11个月新高。四季报数据显示，2022年第四季度，腾讯控股获公募基金主动增持的数据领跑。
In terms of hot stocks, Tencent opened high throughout the day, closing up 3.8% at HK $408.2 per share and recovering HK $400, an 11-month high since March 3 last year. Four Seasons report data show that in the fourth quarter of 2022, Tencent took the lead in taking the lead in taking the initiative to increase the holdings of public offering funds.
值得注意的是，腾讯控股此前在1月20日公布发行新股以支付员工的“开年利是”。公告称决议发行合共977.16万股新股，以根据股份奖励计划向不少于6600位奖励人士发行合共671.22万股；及因实物分派作出的调整就相关奖励发行合共305.94万股额外奖励股份。认购款项195.43元。
It is worth noting that Tencent previously announced the issuance of new shares on January 20 to pay employees'"annual interest." The announcement stated that it resolved to issue a total of 9.7716 million new shares to issue a total of 6.7122 million shares to not less than 6600 awardees under the share incentive scheme, and a total of 3.0594 million additional award shares for the related awards as a result of adjustments made in kind distribution. The subscription amount is 195.43 yuan.
小米集团大涨超12%。此前，针对网络曝光的关于小米MS11车型的图片，小米公关部总经理王化发文称，的确是二级供应商保密的设计文件泄密；该供应商仅仅是为模具打样的供应商，泄密的文件是非常早期的招标过程的设计稿，并非最终文件；公司一定会根据与该供应商签订的保密协议进行严肃处理。
XIAOMI Group rose more than 12%. Previously, in response to the pictures of XIAOMI's MS11 model exposed on the Internet, Wang Hua, general manager of the public relations department of XIAOMI, said that the design documents confidential by the secondary supplier were indeed leaked; the supplier was only a supplier for mold proofing, and the leaked documents were the design draft of the very early bidding process, not the final document; the company will certainly deal with it seriously in accordance with the confidentiality agreement signed with the supplier.
其他互联网科技股中，哔哩哔哩涨8%，阿里健康、京东健康涨超4%，京东涨2.76%。
Among other Internet technology stocks, Bilibili Inc. is up 8%, Alibaba Health Information Technology and JD Health are up more than 4%, and JD.com is up 2.76%.
汽车股集体走强，“蔚小理”涨超10%
Automobile stocks strengthened collectively, and "Wei Xiaoli" rose more than 10%.
港股汽车板块集体走强，截至收盘，蔚来-SW涨12.94%、理想汽车-W涨12.16%、小鹏汽车-W涨10.47%、长城汽车涨7.75%、比亚迪股份涨6.01%。
Hong Kong auto stocks collectively strengthened. By the close, NIO Inc.-SW was up 12.94%, Li Auto Inc.-W was up 12.16%, XPeng Inc.-W was up 10.47%, Great Wall Motor was up 7.75%, and Byd Company Limited was up 6.01%.
值得注意的是，周三美股收盘后，特斯拉公布了2022年四季度财报。公司营收、季度利润好于预期。财报公布后，特斯拉盘后涨超1%。今年以来，特斯拉的股价累计上涨了17%，优于同期标普500指数累计4.6%的上涨。
It is worth noting that Tesla, Inc. released his results for the fourth quarter of 2022 after the close of US stocks on Wednesday. The company's revenue and quarterly profit are better than expected. After the announcement of the financial results, Tesla, Inc. rose more than 1% in after-hours trading. Tesla, Inc. 's share price has risen 17 per cent so far this year, outperforming the 4.6 per cent rise in the S & P over the same period.
财报显示，该公司四季度营业收入同比增长37%至243.18亿美元，超过分析师预期的241.56亿美元，上个季度为177.19亿美元。净利润为36.87亿美元，超过预期的23.21亿美元。该公司四季度调整后净利润同比增长43%至41.06亿美元。
The company's fourth-quarter revenue rose 37 per cent year-on-year to $24.318 billion, beating analysts' expectations of $24.156 billion and $17.719 billion last quarter, according to the results. Net profit was $3.687 billion, exceeding expectations of $2.321 billion. The company's adjusted net profit rose 43 per cent year-on-year to $4.106 billion in the fourth quarter.
该公司四季度自由现金流14.2亿美元，市场预估为31.3亿美元。特斯拉在四季度通过出售碳排放信用额度获得的收入达到4.67亿美元，环比增加63.3%。特斯拉表示，在第四季度，公司生产了超过43.9万辆汽车，交付了超过40.5万辆汽车。2022年，汽车交付量同比增长40%至131万辆，产量同比增长47%至137万辆。
The company has a free cash flow of $1.42 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with market estimates of $3.13 billion. Tesla, Inc. 's income from the sale of carbon credits reached $467 million in the fourth quarter, up 63.3 per cent from the previous quarter. Tesla, Inc. said that in the fourth quarter, the company produced more than 439000 cars and delivered more than 405000 vehicles. In 2022, car deliveries rose 40 per cent year-on-year to 1.31 million and production rose 47 per cent to 1.37 million.
春节档总票房破55亿，欢喜传媒一度涨近30%
The total box office of the Spring Festival exceeded 5.5 billion, and joy media once rose nearly 30%.
猫眼专业版数据显示，2023年1月26日14时28分，2023年春节档（1月21日-1月27日）总票房（含预售）破55亿。《满江红》《流浪地球2》《熊出没·伴我“熊芯”》分列春节档票房前三位。
According to Maoyan Professional Edition, the total box office (including pre-sale) of the 2023 Spring Festival (January 21-January 27) exceeded 5.5 billion at 14:28 on January 26, 2023. "Manjianghong", "wandering the Earth 2" and "Bear Heart" were among the top three at the box office during the Spring Festival.
1月26日，港股影视股集体走强，早盘时欢喜传媒一度涨近30%，IMAX中国一度涨超10%。截至收盘，欢喜传媒涨10.42%、IMAX中国涨6.44%、数字王国涨4.42%、猫眼娱乐涨3.31%。
On January 26, Hong Kong film and television stocks collectively strengthened, and happy media once rose nearly 30% in early trading. IMAX China once rose by more than 10%. As of the close, happy Media rose 10.42%, IMAX China rose 6.44%, Digital Kingdom rose 4.42%, and Cat's Eye Entertainment rose 3.31%.
东吴证券认为，展望2023年，随着影院营业率回升，此前积压的优质库存影片有望陆续定档，同时2022年11月以来，国产及进口影片审核持续释放积极信号，我们看好影片审核边际向好，优质内容供给有望稳步扩容，提振观影需求，加速票房复苏。优质影片储备丰富，我们看好板块盈利、估值双修复机会。2022年国内电影票房仅为2019年的47%，相比2021年国内73%及2022年北美65%、日本70%的恢复率，票房复苏空间可期。
Soochow Securities believes that looking forward to 2023, with the recovery of cinema operation rate, the previous backlog of high-quality inventory films is expected to be scheduled one after another, while domestic and imported film censorship has continued to release positive signals since November 2022. We are optimistic that the margin of film censorship is good, and the supply of high-quality content is expected to steadily expand, boost demand for cinema and accelerate box office recovery. The reserve of high-quality films is rich, and we are optimistic about the double repair opportunities of profitability and valuation. The domestic box office in 2022 is only 47% of that in 2019, compared with 73% in 2021, 65% in North America and 70% in Japan.
上海证券表示，近期电视剧、动画片、电影均有优质内容供给上线，影视剧行业开始出现积极信号，同时XR新型硬件终端也有望重塑影视板块长逻辑。内容行业供给决定需求，目前内容市场处于弱供给强需求的市场格局，叠加疫情影响，影视板块商业模式及长逻辑亟需重塑。我们认为传媒整体政策面仍处于边际改善的上升周期，预计影视板块将经历“需求复苏”及“价值重估”两个阶段，分别对应短周期逻辑及长周期逻。
Shanghai Securities said that recently, TV dramas, cartoons and movies have all provided high-quality content online, and the film and television industry has begun to show positive signals. at the same time, the new hardware terminal of XR is also expected to reshape the long logic of the film and television plate. The supply of the content industry determines the demand. At present, the content market is in a market pattern of weak supply and strong demand, superimposing the impact of the epidemic, and the business model and long-term logic of the film and television sector urgently need to be reshaped. We believe that the overall policy of the media is still in an upward cycle of marginal improvement, and it is expected that the film and television sector will go through two stages: "demand recovery" and "value revaluation", corresponding to short-cycle logic and long-cycle logic respectively.
旅游股大涨，中国中免涨超8%再创上市新高
Tourism stocks rose sharply, with China exempted from rising more than 8% to hit a new listing high.
此外，春节期间出行人数大幅增加，旅游股也迎来大涨。中国中免大涨8%再创上市新高、东瀛游涨2.38%、携程集团涨2.31%。
In addition, the number of travelers increased significantly during the Spring Festival, and tourism stocks also ushered in a big rise. China exemption rose 8 per cent to hit a new listing high, while Japan Travel rose 2.38 per cent and Trip.com rose 2.31 per cent.
消息方面，在兔年春节前4天，包括酒店、民宿、门票在内的旅游多业态已反超2019年同期。与去年春节同期相比，民宿预订量同比增长超2倍，门票预订量同比增长超5成。内地游客的出境机票预订量同比增长超4倍，出境酒店预订量同比增长超2倍。
In terms of news, in the four days before the Spring Festival of the year of the Rabbit, many forms of tourism, including hotels, accommodation and tickets, have surpassed the same period in 2019. Compared with the same period of the Spring Festival last year, residential accommodation bookings increased more than twice as much as the same period last year, and ticket bookings increased by more than 50% compared with the same period last year. Outbound air ticket bookings for mainland tourists have increased by more than 4 times compared with the same period last year, and outbound hotel bookings have increased by more than 2 times compared with the same period last year.
以飞猪发布的春节出游数据，在兔年春节前4天，境内长途游订单量同比增长超500%；出境游方面，33个国家及地区的出境游相关商品预订量翻倍增长。国内机票订单量同比增长超40%，火车票订单量同比增长近80%。成都、上海、广州、北京、重庆是热门目的地。
According to the Spring Festival travel data released by Flying Pig, four days before the Spring Festival of the year of the Rabbit, domestic long-distance travel orders increased by more than 500% compared with the same period last year. In terms of outbound travel, the number of outbound travel-related goods booked in 33 countries and regions doubled. Domestic air ticket orders increased by more than 40% over the same period last year, while train ticket orders increased by nearly 80% over the same period last year. Chengdu, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Beijing and Chongqing are popular destinations.
华泰证券发布港股策略研报称，截至1月24日，春节假期期间消费数据恢复良好，春运客运量修复至2019年同期57%水平，多项旅游业务反超2019年同期，电影票房修复至2019年同期105%水平，春节假期前四日北京超市等企业销售额较2019年同期增长13.7%，国内线下经济回暖；海外经济数据方面，欧元区1月PMI数据超预期转好，美元指数承压。资金面角度，2022四季度，公募基金对港股整体配置强度升至5.8%，预计或仍有一定配置空间。
Huatai released a report on the strategy of Hong Kong stocks, saying that as of January 24, the consumption data during the Spring Festival holiday recovered well, the passenger volume of Spring Festival transportation was restored to 57% in the same period in 2019, and many tourism businesses surpassed the same period in 2019. The film box office was restored to 105% in the same period in 2019. The sales of Beijing supermarkets and other enterprises in the first four days of the Spring Festival holiday increased by 13.7% over the same period in 2019, and the domestic offline economy picked up. In terms of overseas economic data, the euro zone's January PMI data turned better than expected, with the dollar index under pressure. From the capital point of view, in the fourth quarter of 2022, the overall allocation intensity of public funds to Hong Kong stocks rose to 5.8%, and it is expected that there may still be some room for allocation.
