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It might seem strange that last Friday’s Israeli missile strike against Iran was greeted with relief in the West, but the attack was at the low end of the range of possible responses. In a world of elevated geopolitical risk the limited nature of the Israeli strike was, in the jargon, ‘de-escalatory’.
Tensions in the Middle East and the conflict in Gaza coincide with a full-scale war in Ukraine and the resurgence of superpower competition, with the West at loggerheads with Russia and, increasingly, China.
In 2015 the Paris Agreement set a goal to limit the increase in global temperatures to well below 2°C, ideally 1.5°C, above pre-industrial levels. In January, for the first time, the average global temperature breached this 1.5°C benchmark over a 12-month period. The Paris accord is based on average temperatures over a much longer period, so the January record does not break the target. Nevertheless, it is a stark warning of the challenges ahead in seeking to meet it.
Optimism among the Chief Financial Officers (CFOs) of the UK’s largest businesses is on a rising trend. The latest Deloitte CFO survey, conducted between 12–25 March, shows sentiment among the CFOs of large UK businesses rising for the third consecutive quarter. Sentiment is well above the average since the survey started 16 years ago and at levels that preceded periods of good growth in 2010, 2014 and 2021.
The last couple of years have been hard for the UK economy. Growth has ground to a halt and consumer spending power has come under heavy pressure. The economy dipped into recession in the second half of last year. The general narrative about the UK remains downbeat, with a focus on weak growth and poor productivity. We think this underplays some of the more recent developments.