Topline
Georgia, Kazakhstan and Mongolia are witnessing a massive influx of Russians fleeing their country to avoid being drafted into Moscow’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine following President Vladimir Putin’s mobilization order, which has prompted unprecedented anger and opposition in parts of the country.
A group of Russians walk after crossing the border at Verkhny Lars between Georgia and Russia.
Key Facts
On Tuesday, Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev—a long-time Putin-ally who has expressed opposition to the Ukraine invasion—said many Russians had entered his country in “recent days” due to the “current hopeless situation.
Tokayev—who survived a popular uprising earlier this year with the help of Putin’s military—said Kazakhstan will “take care of them and ensure their safety,” as he referred to their arrival as a “political and humanitarian issue.”
According to AFP, the number of Russians arriving in Georgia has doubled since Moscow began its partial mobilization effort.
Satellite images released by Maxar showed a massive traffic jam on the road leading from Russia to Georgia with Reuters reporting that there were more than 3,000 vehicles in the queue with wait times at the border stretching into 48 hours.
Similar scenes played out at the border crossing into Mongolia as people fleeing the draft were forced to wait as long as 16 hours, Reuters reported.
Some people are attempting to flee Russia and steeper than normal prices have not prevented flights to places such as Turkey, Armenia, Serbia and the UAE from being sold out, the Associated Press reported.
This satellite image provided by Maxar Technologies shows an overview of the traffic jam near the ... [+]
Tangent
The mobilization process has triggered unrest and opposition from Russians who had, until recently, remained ambivalent or even supportive of the invasion. According to the Financial Times, the largest of these protests took place on Sunday in the impoverished region of Dagestan—home to multiple ethnic minority groups—with many people chanting “No to war!” and confronting officials. Anger towards the mobilization process turned violent in the Irkutsk region of Siberia where a recruitment officer was shot dead by a man. The shooter was reportedly angry about the conscription of a friend who did not meet the criteria laid out by Moscow. Kremlin officials have since acknowledged the haphazard nature of the draft process and the fact that several people outside Putin’s mobilization criteria have been conscripted to fight in Ukraine.
What To Watch For
While the Kremlin and other regional officials have moved to swiftly crack down on protests against the mobilization efforts. So far no effort has been made to close the borders or ban military-aged men from leaving the country. The Kremlin on Monday said no decision has so far been made on closing the border, however, the Financial Times reports border and airport officials have been given lists of people who are barred from leaving the country. As the mobilization process appears to be unpopular, more heavy-handed crackdowns could trigger massive unrest in the country—a concern that might force Putin and the Kremlin to tread carefully. Voting in the Russian-orchestrated referendums—decried by Kyiv and the West as a sham—in occupied Ukrainian territories is set to end on Tuesday. Moscow is expected to announce the annexation of these territories soon and this could allow it forcibly draft Ukrainian men in these regions into its war efforts.
Key Background
In a televised address last week, Putin ordered “partial mobilization” to shore up Russia’s floundering invasion of Ukraine. Over the past month, the Russian military has faced a string of major battlefield losses and has been almost completely driven out of Ukraine’s Kharkiv region—which was under Russian occupation since the first few weeks of the war. In his address, Putin said the mobilization will only target people who are existing members of Russia’s reserves or have previously served in the Armed Forces.
Further Reading
Russians run and hide from Putin’s zealous draft officials (Financial Times)
Putin’s call-up fuels Russians’ anger, protests and violence (Associated Press)
