Another Diplomatic Gambit Risks Blowing Up in Xi’s Face
In brokering an agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, Beijing is taking a major gamble that its reach doesn’t exceed its grasp.
Will China come to regret its foray into the Middle East?
Photographer: Dmitry Astakhov/AFP via Getty Images
The recent diplomatic agreement between Saudi Arabia, Iran and China isn’t quite a geopolitical earthquake, but it’s more than a tremor. The deal shows how alignments in the Middle East are shifting as China moves into the region while the US looks for ways to get out. It is part of China President Xi Jinping’s global diplomatic strategy for navigating worsening relations with Washington. It’s also a major gamble on Beijing’s part, one that could hasten the transition to a multipolar Middle East, or simply show that China’s reach exceeds its grasp.
The core of the agreement involves normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, with China serving as mediator and guarantor. While the terms themselves aren’t particularly transformative — the deal simply reestablishes regular diplomatic interactions that were severed in 2016 — the real meaning is in what the deal symbolizes and who is left out.