Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 67.27%. A draw had a probability of 19.1% and a win for Nottingham Forest had a probability of 13.65%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.51%) and 2-1 (9.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.04%), while for a Nottingham Forest win it was 0-1 (4.17%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Arsenal would win this match.
Result | ||
Arsenal | Draw | Nottingham Forest |
67.27% ( 0.57) | 19.07% ( -0.32) | 13.65% ( -0.25) |
Both teams to score 51.05% ( 0.4) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
58.25% ( 0.88) | 41.75% ( -0.89) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
35.85% ( 0.88) | 64.15% ( -0.89) |
Arsenal Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
88.53% ( 0.41) | 11.46% ( -0.41) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
63.7% ( 0.88) | 36.29% ( -0.88) |
Nottingham Forest Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
57.66% ( 0.19) | 42.33% ( -0.19) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
21.27% ( 0.16) | 78.72% ( -0.16) |
Score Analysis |
Arsenal | Draw | Nottingham Forest |
2-0 @ 11.38% ( -0.08) 1-0 @ 10.51% ( -0.24) 2-1 @ 9.79% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 8.22% ( 0.08) 3-1 @ 7.07% ( 0.1) 4-0 @ 4.45% ( 0.11) 4-1 @ 3.83% ( 0.12) 3-2 @ 3.04% ( 0.06) 5-0 @ 1.93% ( 0.08) 5-1 @ 1.66% ( 0.08) 4-2 @ 1.64% ( 0.06) Other @ 3.76% Total : 67.27% | 1-1 @ 9.04% ( -0.16) 0-0 @ 4.85% ( -0.2) 2-2 @ 4.21% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.98% Total : 19.07% | 0-1 @ 4.17% ( -0.15) 1-2 @ 3.88% ( -0.05) 0-2 @ 1.79% ( -0.05) 2-3 @ 1.21% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 1.11% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.49% Total : 13.65% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Arsenal | 34 | 24 | 5 | 5 | 82 | 26 | 56 | 77 |
2 | Liverpool | 33 | 22 | 8 | 3 | 75 | 32 | 43 | 74 |
3 | Manchester CityMan City | 32 | 22 | 7 | 3 | 76 | 32 | 44 | 73 |
4 | Aston Villa | 34 | 20 | 6 | 8 | 71 | 50 | 21 | 66 |
5 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 32 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 65 | 49 | 16 | 60 |
6 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 32 | 15 | 5 | 12 | 69 | 52 | 17 | 50 |
7 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 32 | 15 | 5 | 12 | 47 | 48 | -1 | 50 |
8 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 54 | 63 | -9 | 48 |
9 | Chelsea | 32 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 61 | 57 | 4 | 47 |
10 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 32 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 52 | 50 | 2 | 44 |
11 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 33 | 12 | 7 | 14 | 46 | 53 | -7 | 43 |
12 | Fulham | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 50 | 54 | -4 | 42 |
13 | Bournemouth | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 48 | 60 | -12 | 42 |
14 | Crystal Palace | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 42 | 56 | -14 | 36 |
15 | Brentford | 34 | 9 | 8 | 17 | 52 | 59 | -7 | 35 |
16 | Everton | 33 | 10 | 8 | 15 | 34 | 48 | -14 | 30 |
17 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 34 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 42 | 60 | -18 | 26 |
18 | Luton TownLuton | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 47 | 75 | -28 | 25 |
19 | Burnley | 34 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 37 | 69 | -32 | 23 |
20 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 33 | 3 | 7 | 23 | 31 | 88 | -57 | 16 |
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