I keep waiting for a pundit to suggest this; it’s apparently up to me :)
Kevin McCarthy is feckless, craven and hypocritical, but he’s not illiterate. He can read the things people are saying about him. So why did he persist in removing Liz Cheney? I think his calculus goes like this:
. The Idiot has raised a lot of money.
. The Idiot plans to use it in ways potentially harmful to Kevin McCarthy’s future.
. With sufficient obeisance, the Idiot can be persuaded to direct his money in ways helpful to Kevin McCarthy’s future.
. The price the Idiot exacts is revenge against his enemies.
Liz Cheney is ambitious, calculated and Machiavellian (in the modern sense of the word). Why did she persist in a losing battle for her position? I think her calculus goes like this:
. The Idiot can’t be trusted to keep up his end of any bargain.
. There’s a lot of money sitting on the sidelines — more than the Idiot can raise.
. Liz Cheney’s future depends on marginalizing the Idiot.
. Candidates the Idiot supports can be defeated by Democrats or by ratfucking, especially in swing districts.
I think Liz Cheney can outraise the Idiot, and she can outmaneuver McCarthy. To the protagonists, then, this is not about the soul of the Republican Party; it’s about control of the Republican Party. If Liz Cheney is anything like her father, my bet is on her. She’s already commandeered the media attention with her speeches, interviews and the public letters. I have no doubt she’s lined up donors and candidates already, plus a cadre of Lee Atwater types. Being Dick Cheney’s daughter has some real advantages, after all, if you want to practice the dark political arts.
Can Liz pull it off? I don’t know; but I will be heavily invested in popcorn futures.
