Derrick Henry Trade Should Be Titans' Priority, but How, When and to Which NFL Team?

The Tennessee Titans haven't pulled the trigger on a trade involving Derrick Henry, and the team hasn't stated he's available. General manager Ran Carthon also told the media last month he'd received no calls regarding the 29-year-old running back.

But if you know how the NFL works, you know that doesn't mean much.

The reality is the Titans should be determined to trade Henry. He's a legendary player coming off the third 1,500-plus-yard season of his career, but he's also approaching 30 at a fragile position with the shortest shelf life in professional football.

The Titans might fancy themselves contenders, but that they ain't. They lost 10 games with a minus-61 scoring margin and ranked in the bottom 10 in DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) at Football Outsiders in 2022, and only three teams have lower Super Bowl odds at DraftKings.

The AFC South might not be strong, but the conference is loaded and Tennessee is extremely unlikely to make a sudden Super Bowl run even if Henry and veteran quarterback Ryan Tannehill remain healthy and effective.

The team was thinking long-term (and possibly even rebuild) when it used a critical second-round draft pick last month on Tannehill's ideal successor, Will Levis, and it would actually make sense to move on from both Henry and the soon-to-be 35-year-old, declining Tannehill sooner than later.

Both possess contracts that are scheduled to expire following the 2023 season anyway, so now's the time to get something of significant value back.

But because quarterback is a more important position and Levis is no sure thing and Henry can become a special piece for a contender right now, we're focusing on him in this analysis.

How, when and where should he go?

How?

In other words, what should the Titans expect in return?

Considering they'd be giving in to a rebuild with this deal, draft capital is the key. Nobody is likely parting with a first-round pick for a running back with as much wear and tear as Henry, but this spring/summer/fall should present chances for Tennessee to milk a desperate team for a Day 2 draft selection.

For comparison's sake, the Philadelphia Eagles recently traded a fourth-round pick to the Detroit Lions for D'Andre Swift, who is younger but also far less accomplished than Henry. Swift has yet to rush for 700 yards in three NFL seasons.

Christian McCaffrey is closer to Henry in terms of accolades and three years his junior. Last fall, the San Francisco 49ers acquired McCaffrey from the Carolina Panthers in exchange for draft capital that, when tallied together on the draft trade value chart, was the equivalent of a high first-round pick.

Again, that might be a stretch, but the Titans should fully expect to land a second- or third-round selection (at the very least) in return for Henry.

When?

Running backs get hurt, though, and I wouldn't blame the Titans for holding out until the inevitable happens in training camps or early in the regular season. The trade deadline typically takes place after Week 8, so there's plenty of time and little reason to rush this.

Besides, they may want to wait for the market to crystalize. Right now, there's a lot up in the air with trade rumors surrounding veterans Dalvin Cook and Austin Ekeler, and with New York Giants' franchise-tag recipient Saquon Barkley seemingly squabbling with the team. Plus, Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette and Kareem Hunt remain on the open market.

Still, anyone willing to take him Henry off the Titans' hands for a second-round pick should be greeted with a welcoming smile.

Where?

As for teams that should consider making runs at Henry, you've got to be a realistic contender (forget it, Chicago Bears, Carolina Panthers and Houston Texans) willing to sacrifice some future draft capital for an obvious offensive upgrade (not easy for the Denver Broncos, Minnesota Vikings and New Orleans Saints, all of whom have given away some 2024 Day 2 capital), and you probably can't be in salary-cap poverty (looking at you, Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins).

Take out teams that don't really need a new No. 1 back (the Giants for now, along with the Eagles, Lions and Falcons following the draft, as well as teams with standout backs like the 49ers, Vikings, Cleveland Browns, Las Vegas Raiders, Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Chargers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Seattle Seahawks, Pittsburgh Steelers and Dallas Cowboys), and the rest of teams that have lower-half Super Bowl odds (Arizona Cardinals, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New England Patriots, Washington Commanders and Los Angeles Rams), and you're left with the following squads:

Baltimore Ravens: They have three decent backs in J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards and Justice Hill, but none are game-changers like Henry, and Dobbins and Edwards have had have some trouble remaining on the field. If they're going all-in with Lamar Jackson, this would be the move.

Cincinnati Bengals: After June 1, the Super Bowl-or-bust Bengals save $10 million in salary-cap space by releasing veteran Joe Mixon. A one-for-one replacement with Henry would make a lot of sense as they bridge the gap to rookie fifth-round pick Chase Brown and/or 2019 sixth-rounder Trayveon Williams.

New York Jets: This would be one way to make Aaron Rodgers happy, and this was a bottom-eight rushing game in terms of DVOA in 2022 that could use an upgrade over Breece Hall (who is coming off a torn ACL) and Michael Carter (who averaged just 3.5 yards per carry last year).

Of course, that's barring unpredictable injuries. A lot could still happen, but the market and the logic exist regardless.