WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. — When the Washington Nationals’ buses arrived in Williamsport, Pa., for the Little League Classic in August, fans congregated near the parking lot to watch the team’s march into the stadium.
“There he is! There he is!” the boy said as he stretched on his tip toes and patted his friend’s shoulder. “There’s the dreads! There’s the dreads!”
He had spotted Nationals shortstop CJ Abrams, who had just stepped off the bus. And he wasn’t alone. Another kid stopped Abrams as he walked from the buses to tell Abrams he liked his drip. Many Nationals coaches and staff would note that day how kids swarmed around Abrams, who was surprised himself.
“All you saw was a smile from cheek to cheek,” third base coach Ricky Gutierrez said last year. “He even said, ‘I see what Michael Jordan feels like.’ I said, ‘Okay, so you don’t mind being the face of the team?’ ”
Abrams is one of the most recognizable players on Washington’s rebuilding roster. He is part of a young core that includes catcher Keibert Ruiz, right-hander Josiah Gray and lefty MacKenzie Gore, a group tasked with leading the Nationals into a new era. Keeping that core together would certainly help them sustain success, if they find it.
The 23-year-old, who arrived in Washington in 2022 as part of the Juan Soto trade, has had an up-and-down tenure as a National but enters the 2024 season after a solid spring. His 2023 campaign had a rocky start — including three errors on Opening Day. As the months rolled by, he was inconsistent but at times electrifying, and as fall approached, he showed flashes of the player the Nationals hoped he could be. Abrams, who went 0 for 4 on Opening Day, won’t be a free agent for several years — not until after the 2028 season. But now, as baseball begins anew, it’s okay to wonder: Could Abrams commit to a long-term future in Washington? And would Washington commit to him?
“Thoughts arise, but you got to stay focused,” Abrams said. “Whenever it happens, it happens. Just take care of business and the task at hand.”
A strong second half
Last season, when the Nationals were visiting the Bronx to face the New York Yankees, a kid stood near Washington’s dugout with an alien chain similar to the one Abrams wears, hoping to trade it for one of his bats. The moment came amid his second-half emergence at the plate. That series was bookended by Abrams’s go-ahead homer in the series opener and another blast in the finale.
The Abrams of the second half was confident and self-assured — that wasn’t consistently the case in the first. Before the all-star break, Abrams chased pitches out of the zone 37.2 percent of the time, according to the website TruMedia — specifically balls low and away. He also swung at balls too far on the inside part of the plate, got jammed and grounded out weakly.
Defensively, his inconsistent mechanics resulted in errant throws early in the season. He didn’t have a solid pregame routine. And when he would make a mistake, Gutierrez said last year, he looked “like a deer in headlights.”
“I got a little hard on myself when things didn’t go my way,” Abrams said. “Something I want to do personally — and get better at — is staying levelheaded.”
Then Manager Dave Martinez moved Abrams to the top of the order before the all-star break. And in July, he hit .327 with an .891 OPS. Perhaps more significantly, he chased 29.8 percent that month and 32.6 percent in the season’s second half, according to TruMedia. He hit 11 of his 18 home runs in the second half, struck out at a lower rate and walked at a higher rate, though his walks were well below the major league average.
“With that comes a lot of responsibility,” hitting coach Darnell Coles said of batting leadoff. “You have to control the strike zone. You have to put yourself in position to get on base so that the guy behind you has an easier at-bat. So CJ’s done that, but also he can impact the game with one swing.”
Abrams stole 33 bases in the second half, more than any player in baseball. Coaches raved about his pregame work, which started to pay off during games. His throws were on target, and he was smoother defensively, specifically on balls hit to his glove side.
But July was the only month in which Abrams’s batting average was above .250. And he has to prove he can maintain phis late discipline and defense for a full season. It was evident at spring training that he believes he can. And as his confidence has grown, Abrams — who has always been a bit reserved, at least around reporters — has been more willing to show his personality.
He would make his teammates laugh and take part in clubhouse chatter. He was at times goofy, such as the day he pretended to tackle first base coach Gerardo Parra, or when he ran around with his arms stretched wide like an airplane when his team won the cabbage relay, an annual rite of spring for the Nationals.
“The more time I spend with everybody, the more comfortable I am,” Abrams said. “I can feel it, for sure. I’m sure people can see it as well.”
A risk for both player and team
Abrams’s progression is a welcome sight for the Nationals, who have signed only three players to significant deals before they reached free agency: Ryan Zimmerman (in 2009 and 2012), Stephen Strasburg (2016) and Ruiz.
Ruiz’s deal — an eight-year, $50 million contract — came in March 2023 as the switch-hitting catcher entered his second full season with the Nationals. It felt like a notable moment for Washington, which in recent years saw MVP outfielder Bryce Harper depart for Philadelphia and several stars — Trea Turner, Max Scherzer, Soto — traded amid the rebuild.
Gore, who will start the home opener for Washington on Monday; Dylan Crews, the No. 2 pick in the 2023 draft; and prospect James Wood, who impressed at spring training, are represented by Scott Boras, who typically advises players to maximize their value via free agency. Abrams is not, which could present something of an opportunity. Long-term deals can be difficult to pull off, and there’s always risk for both the player, who might be leaving money on the table, and the team, which must trust that the player will develop into the star it hopes he can be.
A helpful comparison to Abrams’s situation might be that of Bobby Witt Jr., the Kansas City Royals shortstop who signed an 11-year, $288.8 million contract extension in the offseason. Here’s how the stats from their first full years in the majors line up:
Witt, in 2022: .254 batting average, .294 on-base percentage and .428 slugging percentage with 20 home runs in 632 plate appearances, a 102 OPS+, 30 stolen bases and 2.3 FanGraphs wins above replacement.
Abrams, in 2023: .245 batting average, .300 on-base percentage and .412 slugging percentage, with 18 home runs in 614 plate appearances, a 95 OPS+, 47 stolen bases and 2.1 FanGraphs WAR.
The comparison is helpful to a point. Witt finished 2023 with 5.7 fWAR to go with 30 home runs, 11 triples and 49 stolen bases — a season difficult for anyone to replicate.
Ezequiel Tovar, a 22-year-old shortstop for the Colorado Rockies, signed a seven-year, $63.5 million extension this week, which provides another comparison. Tovar, like Abrams, was a top-100 prospect who played his first full season in the majors last year. He had 1.6 WAR per FanGraphs; Abrams produced 2.1.
Abrams is the better offensive player (95 OPS+ vs. Tovar’s 77), but Tovar is better defensively (16 outs above average compared with Abrams’s minus-9).
Abrams, who plays such a pivotal position, is still relatively inexperienced, which is why his development should be viewed with patience as he enters his third MLB season. This is an important year for the Nationals and their shortstop. If his play continues to elevate, he could raise his value, too.
“I think that last year,” Coles said, “was just the start of something special.”
