MLB futures markets can be fertile ground for finding betting value, especially with end-of-season awards markets such as the MVP, rookie of the year and Cy Young winners. Before the 2022 season, we highlighted Miami’s Sandy Alcantara as a sneaky smart pick for the National League’s ultimate pitching accolade at +1600 odds. He went on to produce a 14-9 record with a 2.28 ERA and 207 strikeouts in 228⅔ innings pitched. It was good enough to earn all 30 first-place votes and the first Cy Young Award of his career.
This year we are going to take a similar approach, albeit later in the season, to find potential value in this market — and right now, no pitcher offers more betting value than Framber Valdez of the Houston Astros. The left-handed ace has showcased excellent command and control, consistently delivering quality starts. With his nearly unique array of pitches and ability to work deep into games, Valdez has become a nightmare for opposing batters, and an intriguing choice for the American League’s top end-of-season pitching award.
Valdez is 5-4 with a 2.38 ERA, striking out 77 batters in 72 innings pitched. He’s delivered a quality start (six or more innings pitched, three or fewer earned runs allowed) in nine of his 11 starts, tied for the highest rate in the AL this season, and his numbers would look a lot better if he was getting more than 3.7 runs per start in support. Only six qualified AL starters have gotten less run support than Valdez this season.
Using individual projections to estimate each pitcher’s enhanced Cy Young Award points — a metric developed by Tom Tango, now a senior data architect at MLB Advanced Media — we can forecast that Valdez is expected to lead the league in this metric by season’s end. For context, every Cy Young winner since 2006 finished first or second in enhanced Cy Young points. Now for the interesting part: Valdez isn’t even listed in the top five choices at many sportsbooks offering this market. He can be had for +1600 odds to win the AL Cy Young at DraftKings, and at +1550 odds at GambetDC, Washington, D.C.’s only city-wide betting operation. Shane McClanahan, the betting favorite at around +350 odds, is expected to finish a narrow second in Cy Young Award points behind Valdez, followed by Luis Castillo (+1400 odds), Gerrit Cole (+400) and Kevin Gausman (+1200).
The race for the NL Cy Young Award is better aligned with the betting markets. Arizona’s Zac Gallen, +220 at DraftKings and +250 at FanDuel, is a deserving name near the top of the market. The 27-year-old is 7-2 with a 2.72 ERA and 82 strikeouts in 72⅔ innings. His seven wins lead the National League and so does his 2.09 FIP, a metric that estimates what his ERA would be had he experienced league average results on balls in play and league average timing. He’s also allowing 0.2 home runs per nine innings, the lowest rate in the NL.
Zac Gallen recorded his 5th start of at least 6 scoreless innings this season, the most in MLB.
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) May 31, 2023
Gallen is the first pitcher with 5 such outings before June since Justin Verlander in 2018. Verlander went on to finish 2nd in AL Cy Young voting that season. pic.twitter.com/a8NYAmqvSh
Atlanta’s Spencer Strider (+210) is the favorite at both DraftKings and FanDuel. Strider, in his third year in the majors, is 5-2 with a 2.97 ERA plus an MLB-leading 106 strikeouts in 63⅔ innings.
If you are looking for value, Logan Webb (+2000, +2100) is a good choice. The San Francisco Giants right-hander is 4-5 with a 2.75 ERA, striking out 76 batters in 72 innings, but more importantly, his projections suggest he could become more competitive in the NL Cy Young Award race as the season goes on. And as Alcantara showed last year, early season favorites do not always deliver.
