Week 12 NFL Props – Best Team and Player Prop Bets for Sunday, November 29

• Sunday of Week 12 was potentially going to have 13 games on schedule, but we’re back to 12 with the Ravens vs Steelers moved to Tuesday
• Our prop bets from Week 11 went 5-4 and we made 0.67 units
• See the player props and touchdown props for every game on Sunday below

My Week 11 would have been much better if Lamar Jackson could have found four more yards on the ground, or if Nick Chubb didn’t have his goal line carries stolen by Kareem Hunt. We still ended up in the plus, nonetheless.

We were originally supposed to have another 12 games on tap for Sunday of Week 12, but the Ravens vs Steelers game, originally scheduled for Thanksgiving Thursday, was added to the slate. You’ll find the over/unders for the major players in all of Sunday’s games, outside of the Sunday night game, as well as the odds for all significant players to score a touchdown below.

Week 12 NFL Player Props

Odds as of November 28

Michael Thomas Shines with Taysom Hill

Michael Thomas is coming off his best week of the season, turning 12 targets into nine catches for 104 yards. This came in Taysom Hill’s first career start, against a very bad Falcons pass defense.

Taysom finds Michael Thomas for 22 yards 🎯

(via @NFL) pic.twitter.com/9csp7JMXzd

— B/R Gridiron (@brgridiron) November 22, 2020

He faces a much tougher pass defense in Week 12 and a much tougher individual matchup. Denver has allowed the ninth-fewest yards through the air and Bryce Callahan has been enjoying a fantastic season.

Here’s why he can overcome it: Taysom Hill is not Drew Brees. This benefits Michael Thomas in two ways: (1) he sees targets further than 15 yards downfield, and (2) Hill does not spread the ball around the way Brees does. As mentioned, Thomas saw 12 targets last week, which is good for a 52.2% target share.

Thomas is healthy and has a quarterback forcing the ball into him. He’ll go over 68.5 yards on Sunday.

Pick: Michael Thomas over 68.5 receiving yards (-112) – 1 unit 

Justin Herbert Goes Over His Passing Yards Total

The total in the Chargers vs Bills game is set at 53. Buffalo boasts the league’s 11th-ranked offense in points scored, while the Chargers rank 15th. LA has averaged 29.7 points per game since Week 4, though. These points are not a result of strong running games, either.

The total in this game is also high because neither team possesses a very good defense. The Chargers have allowed the ninth-most points, while the Bills have allowed the 13th-most.

What I’m saying here is that neither offense is going to have trouble scoring. Get ready for a shootout in this one, where Justin Herbert will have to throw nearly 50 times. The rookie is averaging 299.9 passing yards per game and has gone over 275 yards in seven of his nine starts.

Pick: Justin Herbert over 275.5 passing yards (-112) – 1 unit

Odds to Score a Touchdown in Week 12

Which Players Should You Bet to Score a Touchdown?

As you know, I’m not in the business of taking lottery tickets. So you won’t find me betting anyone to score the first touchdown of the game in Week 12. Here are a handful of players I like to score a touchdown at anytime in their respective games:

1. Wayne Gallman anytime touchdown (+105): The Giants running back has a touchdown in four consecutive games and a total of five touchdowns in that span. The Bengals allow a league-worst 5.0 yards per carry, and based on the spread, the G-Men expect to be playing with a lead for much of this game. (1.5 units)
2. Tyreek Hill anytime touchdown (-125): the Chiefs’ speedy wide receiver has scored a touchdown eight of ten games this season. Kansas City loves his speed in the red zone and Tampa Bay will not be able to match. (1 unit)
3. Zack Moss anytime touchdown (+130): The Chargers gave La’Mical Perine his second career touchdown last week and allow 4.6 yards per carry. Moss has emerged as Buffalo’s lead back since returning from injury, and has six carries from inside the five-yard-line in his seven games this season. In what should be a high-scoring game, evident by the 53-point total, I like Moss to get more red zone carries. (1 unit)
4. Cam Akers anytime touchdown (+225): I’m of the belief that it’s only a matter of time before Akers takes over the Rams’ backfield. He scored his first career touchdown last week and is averaging 8.7 touches in his last three games. The likelihood of the Rams playing with a lead against the Niners tells me we’ll see plenty of Akers on Sunday. (0.5 units)
5. Kareem Hunt anytime touchdown (-112): As I’ve been saying for a couple of weeks now, I’m betting on the Browns running game. Sportsbooks have finally shortened Nick Chubb’s touchdown odds, limiting our edge, but I still see value in Hunt finding the endzone against a banged-up Jags defense this weekend. Hunt has a touchdown in four of the six games where Chubb plays this year, and Cleveland should find themselves in plenty of goal-to-go situations on Sunday. (1 unit)
6. Taysom Hill anytime touchdown (+110): Hill found the endzone twice in his first start last week, and I like Sean Payton to continue leaning on him in the red zone against a strong Broncos secondary. (1 unit)