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By NOAH KEATE
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Good Sunday afternoon. This is Noah Keate steering the good ship Sunday Crunch. Happy Ed Balls Day.
You know the drill: The latest episode of the essential Politics at Jack and Sam’s podcast is out later today. POLITICO’s U.K. Editor Jack Blanchard and Sky News’ Deputy Political Editor Sam Coates will be previewing the week ahead in Westminster — the new edition should appear in your feeds at around 6.30 p.m.
THINGS TO KNOW
STING IN THE TAIL: Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s final weekend ahead of the local elections has been blown somewhat off course by Suffolk MP Dan Poulter’s shock defection to Labour. The PM had been trying to get on the front foot in the last days of campaigning by speaking to Sky’s Trevor Phillips, in a big interview (conducted on Friday) which aired this morning.
Stick with the plan: Sunak was keen to stress the effectiveness of his Rwanda plan after the much-delayed bill finally got royal assent — despite flights not being due to take off for another 10 to 12 weeks. The PM argued that “the deterrent is … already having an impact” after Ireland’s deputy prime minister Micheál Martin said the threat of being deported to Rwanda had caused migrants to cross from Northern Ireland into the Republic.
Removal service: “People are worried about coming here and that demonstrates exactly what I’m saying,” Sunak told Sky News. “If people come to our country illegally, but know that they won’t be able to stay, they’re much less likely to come and that’s why the Rwanda scheme is so important.”
Channel crossings: The latest loss of life in the English Channel was highlighted by Sunak as a reason for the scheme to get going: “They tragically lost their lives because they’re exploited by criminal gangs. Do you think any life lost is acceptable? I don’t.”
Good morning Vietnam: Sunak put the increase in small boat crossings this year down to one country — Vietnam — and suggested his previous returns agreement with Albania can be repeated. “We saw the numbers drop. That shows you that deterrence works, and we will be able to do that with Vietnamese as well.”
While on the continent: The prime minister argued in a Mail on Sunday op-ed that his policy has now been vindicated after the European People’s Party (the EU Parliament grouping whose membership includes European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen) proposed using (safe) “third countries” for asylum processing. Sunak wrote: “I said when I first became prime minister that others would recognise a meaningful deterrent is the only way to stop the boats — and now even top parties in the EU are following our lead.”
Checking in to the Plaza: Sunak may be less jubilant to read warnings in the Sunday Telegraph that his genius plan to divert judges to hear Rwanda appeal cases will only increase the backlog for other asylum cases … leading to higher spending on hotel bills for those waiting to be processed.
Here we go then: In a story published on its website in the past hour, the Guardian says the Home Office will begin detaining asylum seekers on Monday in preparation for deportation. “Officials plan to hold refugees who turn up for routine meetings at immigration service offices,” Severin Carrell and Rajeev Syal report. “It is thought the launch of the operation has been timed to coincide with Thursday’s local council elections in England, to boost Rishi Sunak’s claims he is cracking down on illegal migration.” No comment as yet from No. 10.
Not on side: Shadow Health Secretary Wes Streeting remained Rwanda-skeptic on his Sunday morning broadcast round, telling Sky “it is still not going to deal with the problem of small boats.”Streeting called for “serious solutions” and said money should be invested in the National Crime Agency. Streeting did also make clear that Labour in power would not be brining back people once they’ve been deported, saying “once people are settled in Rwanda, they’re settled in Rwanda.”
Domestic workforce: Streeting also made clear to the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg he thinks net migration is currently too high, stressing the NHS workforce had become too dependent on overseas labor. “We’re actually taking people from countries like Nepal, which have chronic shortages of their own,” he said. “I think that’s immoral in the case of countries like Nepal, I think it’s unfair in the case of homegrown talent.”
Unimpressed: Conservative critics who warn that the PM isn’t being hard line enough on immigration continue to swirl, with former Immigration Minister Robert Jenrick, tipped as a future leadership contender, telling GB News’ Camilla Tominey “a few symbolic flights is not a deterrent.” He’s instead calling for a net migration cap in the “tens of thousands” set by parliament. Speaking on the panel on Laura Kuenssberg’s show, Jenrick said: “Dor the last 30 years, politicians of all political stripes have made promises to control and to reduce the levels of legal migration, only to do the opposite.” He argued a cap was the only way of ensuring such “broken promises never happen again.”
Bad sign: That promise was, of course, made by one David Cameron as leader of the opposition in 2010. In an Sunday Telegraph op-ed, Jenrick accused the government of sticking “two fingers” up to the public by liberalizing immigration.
No confirmation: Home Office Minister Chris Philp would not endorse Jenrick’s argument on his Sunday morning broadcast round, telling the BBC the government is “committed to substantially reducing legal migration” but was “not in a position to sit here and advocate for a hard cap today.”
More than unimpressed: Though now very much a serial rebel, Jenrick hasn’t gone so far as defecting. Westminster was instead taken by collective surprise on Saturday afternoon by the announcement that Dan Poulter, Tory MP for Central Suffolk and North Ipswich since 2010, was defecting to Labour. It marks the first Tory to Labour defection since Christian Wakeford in January 2022. Poulter will not stand again for the traditionally safe Tory seat, but will take the Labour whip until the general election.
In poor health: Speaking to the BBC, Poulter, who works part-time as an NHS doctor and served as a health minister under David Cameron, said he found it “increasingly difficult to look my NHS colleagues in the eye,” arguing the focus of today’s Tory Party “is not on delivering or supporting high quality public services.” He added in the interview: “We now have a Tory party that resembles sometimes a little bit more a nationalist National Party rather than a party of the center right.”
In campaigning terms: Such comments may increase the focus on the NHS in the final few days before the local elections, typically an area of strength for Labour — and weakness for the Conservatives.
Breaking point: Poulter expands on his reason for defecting in an Observer op-ed, contrasting “radically improved and transformed” patient care when he began working in the NHS in 2006 under the New Labour government with a “service stretched close to breaking point” under the current government.
Tight circle: The paper had splashed with a pic of the now-Labour MP signing his membership forms with Deputy National Campaign Coordinator Ellie Reeves. It reports discussions between Labour figures and Poulter about the timing and organization of his defection had been taking place for many months, while “only half a dozen people in the party” knew it was coming.
Safe with us: Philp rejected Poulter’s arguments, telling the BBC: “The NHS was one of only two departments that was protected during those years of necessary spending restraint, after the last Labour government bankrupt the country.” He also told Times Radio’s Kate McCann and Adam Boulton: “I haven’t seen [Poulter] around parliament that much recently, but obviously one would rather not lose a colleague.” Tory Suffolk councilor Sam Murray told the duo that Poulter is “known as the invisible man in North Ipswich.”
Decision time: Streeting was (predictably) supportive of Poulter’s move, telling Sky “it’s a reflection of the state of the modern Conservative Party.” Streeting linked the move to the forthcoming elections, adding “it reflects the disaffection and disillusionment felt by millions of Conservative voters across the country who are thinking about who to vote for.” The shadow health secretary later told the BBC: “He’s abandoned the Conservative Party to save the NHS” and said he was not aware of any plans to offer Poulter a place in the Lords.
Advisers advise: Labour Leader Keir Starmer has tweeted supportively about the defection, welcoming Poulter to “today’s changed Labour Party.” While he may be out of parliament after the next election, the Suffolk MP says he sees a role advising Labour on the NHS. Starmer said he was “delighted that Dan will be helping us get the NHS back on its feet.”
You don’t say: If the Tory MPs ‘ WhatsApp chat is anything to go by, Poulter is unlikely to enjoy any leaving drinks with his former colleagues — the Spectator reports Deputy Tory Chair Sara Britcliffe wrote “I didn’t even know he was an MP” while backbencher Chris Clarkson labeled him “an arse.”
TAXING POLLS: Sunak will hope to minimize the number of Tory voters who follow Poulter’s lead Thursday as numerous councils, mayoralties and police and crime commissioners face the verdict of voters (as well as the people of Blackpool South in a parliamentary by-election — read a dispatch from POLITICO’s Andrew McDonald here). The majority of these local elections were last held in 2021, at the height of Boris Johnson’s popularity as the Covid-19 vaccine was rolled out.
Incumbency factor: Sunak told Sky “local elections are always difficult for incumbent parties,” using the interview to highlight Labour administrations in London and Birmingham City Council. “Labour have bankrupted the largest local authority in Europe, and people in Birmingham are paying the price for the council tax increase of 21 percent,” he said.
Core vote: In print, the PM urged supporters to “stick with us” in a Sunday Express interview where he reinforced his promise to eventually abolish National Insurance. “It’s a double-taxation on work. It’s unfair, we want hard work to be rewarded and that’s the benefits you get from sticking to the plan.”
Nail biter: More in Common polling for the Sunday Times shows many of the all important mayoral contests are on a knife-edge, with Labour’s Kim McGuinness in a dead heat with the former Labour North of Tyne mayor turned independent candidate Jamie Driscoll for the North East mayoralty on 35 percent to 33 percent. The gap is wider between Tory MP Ben Bradley and Labour’s Claire Ward for the East Midlands mayoralty, on 28 percent to 41 percent respectively.
Big Ben: Labour officials tell the paper they have conceded defeat in the Tees Valley, pulling activists into the West Midlands instead. “Houchen will win,” a Labour source tells the paper. “We are pulling people out. It’s 50-50 in the West Midlands.” This may or may not be expectations management, of course.
Bit awks: West Midlands Mayor Andy Street faces a dead heat against Labour, polling 41 percent to his main opponent Richard Parker’s 39 percent. Challenged in a Sunday Times interview to express enthusiasm for Sunak, Street pauses. “I don’t even know what you’re getting at,” he eventually splutters. “He is the prime minister. I am supportive to the party.” It’s perhaps little wonder Sunak has been “conspicuously absent” from the campaign.
Indeed: Both Bloomberg and the i’s weekend reads stress the PM’s focus is on Ben Houchen being reelected as Tees Valley mayor to show the party can win in Labour-facing areas. A Tory MP loyal to the PM told the Sun on Sunday: “If we lose Ben then things will be really bad. I don’t know what will happen.” Houchen’s Labour opponent Chris McEwan stressed no complacency in a Sunday Mirror interview, stating “there’s only one poll that matters, and that’s the one on May 2nd.” He needs a whopping 23 percent swing to win.
While in the capital: Tory London Mayoral candidate Susan Hall declared she was furious when Women2Win, the campaign group co-founded by one Theresa May to support female Conservatives, offered to transform her look, telling the Sun on Sunday: “I was so bloody mad I can’t begin to tell you. I really was livid. Women shouldn’t treat other women like that. I can’t tell you how cross I was.”
Another coronation? A Tory drubbing in the local elections could mark third time lucky for Commons Leader (and ace sword wielder) Penny Mordaunt’ in her attempt’s efforts to become Tory leader. The Sunday Telegraph splashes with Tory rebels planning a roadmap dubbed “100 days to save Britain” ( a phrase not dissimilar from the tile of a certain new book) which involves uniting around Mordaunt. One rebel tells the paper: “The reality is that we are facing an extinction-level event. It’s for colleagues to decide if they want to go down with the sinking ship.”
Not so fast! Any Mordaunt ascendancy would have to overcome MPs less than supportive of her getting the top job. The Mail on Sunday reports a “stop Penny Mordaunt” campaign is underway, with one former minister saying it would be “insanity” to replace a “failing leader with someone whose only apparent contribution to politics was holding a sword at a real coronation.” Ouch.
Sit down and support: The Commons leader herself has rowed in behind the prime minister, using a Sunday Times interview to deny she is on manoeuvres. “We’ve got to think of the people we are here to serve,” she said. “Further Westminster gymnastics and navel-gazing are not going to do that,” adding that the prime minister’s plan was the right one.
Shapps’ the spirit: Defense Secretary Grant Shapps, who’s also considered a future leadership contender, was similarly supportive of the PM in Saturday’s Times, telling Tory MPs to “let him get on with the job” and that “now is not the time or place” to remove another prime minister. The defense secretary notably didn’t rule himself out leadership aspirations, stating “the future is the future.”
Stuck with Sunak: It fell to political scientist and renowned pollster John Curtice to dismiss any change of leader having a significant electoral impact, telling the Telegraph the party was “stuck” with Rishi Sunak “for good or ill, for all practical purposes” until the next election.
On that election: Despite Westminster speculation about an election being called Monday hitting fever-pitch last week, it remains highly unlikely (famous last words). Though in his Sky interview, Sunak refused to rule out a July election — which would of course be in the “second half of the year”, as previously promised. “I’m not going to say anything more than I’ve already said.” When pushed, he declared: “You’re going to try and draw whatever conclusion you want from what I say. I’m going to always say the same thing.” So that’s helpful.
No chance: The Telegraph’s Saturday read had a senior Downing Street figure declaring the idea of a Monday announcement “bull****,” adding Sunak is due to be on a local visit away from Westminster that day.
Sticking to autumn: Philp said to the BBC an election was “most likely in the autumn,” a line which senior Downing Street and CCHQ sources confirmed to the Sunday Times as well. The most likely plan appears to be an announcement during Sunak’s Tory conference speech on October 2 of an election held November 14. A senior party figure tells the paper that June 27 is the plan B if the local elections deliver a drubbing so bad it triggers a series of unexpected events. The paper has an interview with Tory peer Sayeeda Warsi, who says “we have a weak prime minister” who should call an election “if he doesn’t have the strength to lead.”
Keeping in line: Indeed, some Tory MPs believe the threat of a summer election is being used by No. 10 to deter a rebellion against Sunak, the Observer reports, with quotes likely to make the PM wince. “The handicap he has is he wasn’t elected by the party members. He took over in the circumstances post-Johnson and post-Truss,” a former minister tells the paper. “No party leader has been quite in that situation. So people are saying, ‘well, what’s the point of being loyal?’”
No credit: The chance of a defeat whenever the election is called is leaving some ministers so despondent they are considering quitting before the election, Saturday’s Times says. “At the moment voters aren’t listening to us,” one Cabinet minister said. “Even if we found a cure for cancer and made the sun shine every day we still wouldn’t get the credit for it.”
AGE IS JUST A NUMBER: Labour sought to capitalize on the Tories’ trouble and eat further into their territory by pledging to maintain the pensions triple lock for the full five years of the first parliament. Streeting dismissed the move was subsidizing wealthy pensioners, telling Sky “it’s important to bear in mind with pensioners … if the economic circumstances change and the cost of living change, they can’t go out and earn more money.”
Retire comfortably: Streeting continued Labour’s strategy focusing on security, arguing to Sky the policy would “give pensioners the reassurance to know that as they have planned for retirement and as they are now in retirement, that a Labour government will protect the triple lock.” The shadow health secretary told the BBC the reason for Starmer’s decision was “Rishi Sunak’s claim that he will scrap National Insurance, creating a £46 billion hole in the public finances.”
Message discipline: The Sunday Express’ splash included an op-ed from Keir Starmer, who wrote “undermining the security of pensioners is the Tories’ unfunded £46 billion plan to scrap National insurance.” Labour’s plans to win over pensioner voters is dubbed the “silver wall”, the Sun on Sunday reports, with Shadow Paymaster General Jonathan Ashworth planning a tour of bingo halls, garden centers. and lunch clubs to talk to pensioners.
Mayors at work: Labour’s metro mayors including West Yorkshire Mayor Tracy Brabin and Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham penned a joint article for the Mirror urging the party to ignore “voices of doom” and maintain its proposed shake-up of workers’ rights, which would give all workers employment rights from their first day in a job and ban zero hours contracts.
GREAT SCOT: While no local elections are taking place in Scotland, the political drama remains at boiling point ahead of the looming no-confidence vote in Scottish First Minister Humza Yousaf after his power sharing agreement with the Scottish Greens collapsed. Yousaf’s predecessor-but-one, Alba Leader Alex Salmond, told Sky on his Sunday morning broadcast round he was sure the first minister was in “a listening mode” after ditching the agreement with the Greens, praising his housing proposals Friday as “the sort of announcement that people in Scotland are wanting to see.”
Salmond’s ultimatum? The former Scottish first minister had appeared to suggest Yousaf’s continuation in office would depend on the SNP standing aside in some Holyrood seats. Speaking to the Sunday Times, Salmond said the “top line” in discussions would be an electoral pact between Alba and the SNP. However, Salmond clarified his comments on the BBC, saying he “never made the proposal in the first place — that was an overwrite in a Sunday newspaper.”
Ash Wednesday: As things stand the sole Alba MSP — and former SNP leadership contender — Ash Regan holds the crucial swing vote which may decide whether Yousaf wins this week’s vote. “When you run a minority administration, you have to reach agreement with at least one of the opposition parties,” Salmond told Sky, having run one himself between 2007 and 2011.
Keeping the show on the road: The vote has inevitably left Yousaf in “panic” mode, the i reports, with a Scottish Greens’ “source” telling the paper: “It looks like we’re in the last throes of his time as first minister — he’s holed below the water line. We want to see him go.” An SNP “source” is meanwhile more positive about Yousaf speaking with Alba, telling the paper: “It’s sensible to talk to Alba. There’s no point in going back to the Greens.”
Together as one: Former SNP Westminster Leader Ian Blackford sought to strike a collegiate tone, telling the BBC: “Let’s think about the responsibilities that we all have collectively to deliver for the interests of the people of Scotland.”
Labour gain: The split between the SNP and Scottish Greens could result in the latter no longer standing down for the SNP in some seats to Labour’s benefit, the Observer reports … while the i warns Labour cannot take the SNP turmoil for granted, with a shadow Cabinet minister telling the paper: “SNP voters tend to back their party when it’s in trouble, so that could hurt us too.”
After Yousaf? Though the motion of no confidence in Yousaf does not legally require him to vacate office, he may decide the game is up should he lose. The Sunday Times reports former Scottish Finance Secretary Kate Forbes, who was narrowly pipped to the post by Yousaf last year, is “gearing up” for a campaign if a vacancy arises.
QUICK-FIRE CATCH-UP
SPECIAL RELATIONSHIP: Saturday’s Telegraph says Labour is launching a shadow diplomatic operation to try to win over Donald Trump’s allies in case the former president returns to the White House, as Shadow Foreign Secretary David Lammy visits the U.S. for the sixth’ time since being appointed in 2021.
WARNING WHIPS: Tory whips warned MPs the government would abandon pre-election tax cuts if they backed calls for immediate compensation for the contaminated blood scandal victims, which could cost between £4 billion and £22 billion — the story makes the Sunday Times’ splash.
FAMILY MATTERS: Coverage of Deputy Labour Leader Angela Rayner’s housing arrangements and whether she should have paid capital gains tax continues, with her father Martin Bowen telling the Sun on Sunday she was flitting in and out of the property: “She was in-between.” A Labour spokesperson said: “Angela has always made it clear she also spent time at her husband’s property when they had children. The house she owned remained her main home. Angela looks forward to sitting down with the authorities to draw a line under this.”
ON THE DEFENSE: Britain plans to equip the Armed Forces with a homegrown hypersonic cruise missile by the end of the 2020s, with the weapon being designed and built entirely in Britain, the Sunday Telegraph reports.
ICYMI: Speaking at a special recording of POLITICO’s Power Play podcast in front of a live audience at the British Embassy in Washington D.C., British Ambassador Karen Pierce paid tribute to Congress for passing the multi-billion package of aid to Ukraine. “The central message, which is going to give Ukraine a huge psychological boost, is that America is behind her and Congress is behind her and our will to support Ukraine is undimmed,” she told POLITICO’s Anne McElvoy. “So I salute the congressional leadership in the House and in the Senate on both sides … and it’s a collective expression of our determination to push back on President Putin’s ambitions.”
POLITICAL PROTESTS: Northern Ireland Minister Steve Baker triggered his MPs’ security device after being followed and filmed by a pro-Palestinian activist Saturday. Baker told a security control center: “We’ve got a situation arising on the street so I’d like you to stay where you are on the line please until the gentleman departs” (story via the Telegraph). Former Business Secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg meanwhile said protests against him at Cardiff University were “legitimate and peaceful, if noisy” after an incident Friday night received cross-party condemnation.
ON THE WEB: The Observer has dug into Tory party staff and activists secretly operating a network of Facebook groups which it says have become a hotbed of racism, misinformation and support for criminal damage. The Conservative party said it would review its “processes and policies” regarding Facebook groups in light of the findings. A spokesperson distanced CCHQ from the racist and abusive comments, saying the party “unequivocally condemns all discriminatory language, and never encourages nor condones vandalism or criminal activity”.
THE PLOT THICKENS: The FT Weekend has a fascinating piece from its Assistant Books and Arts Editor Rebecca Watson, whose friend she believes received messages from the Westminster honeytrapper in 2020 (a story first broken by my colleagues Dan Bloom and Aggie Chambre). The messenger, then known as Abbie, sent messages including “Still single?” and “How’s lockdown treating you?” Watson messaged the honeytrapper, detailing “the speed with which she distrusted and blocked me seemed to indicate the defensiveness of someone whose phone was only for initiating exchanges.”
HEY DOUGIE: Tory political adviser Dougie Smith led a team of power brokers who offered former Brexit Party Leader Nigel Farage a knighthood, 10 peerages for his Brexit Party members and influence over his government’s policy direction in return for withdrawing before the 2019 elections, the Mail on Sunday reckons. Johnson allies say he knew “knew nothing” about the meeting, with Farage telling the paper he will make his final decision about his political future upon returning from an imminent 10-day trip to the U.S. Smith declined to comment.
WHAT BORIS DID NEXT: With the Sunday Times reporting Boris Johnson has finished his memoir, the former prime minister may be looking for a new position. Friends of Johnson said he’d be the perfect candidate for the ceremonial role of Lord Warden of the Cinque Ports, the Sunday Telegraph reports. A role previously held by the Queen Mother and Johnson’s hero Winston Churchill, an ally said Johnson “defended the realm from the invasion of eurocrats.”
MEDIA ROUND
Ayesha Hazarika on Times Radio (4 p.m. to 7 p.m.): London School of Economics academic Tony Travers … Association of Cheshire Councils Chief Officer Jackie Weaver … Local Government Association Vice Chair Joe Harris … Mill Media founder Joshi Herrmann.
Westminster Hour (BBC Radio 4, 10 p.m.): Former Environment Secretary Theresa Villers … Shadow Lords Leader Angela Smith … Deputy Lib Dem Leader Daisy Cooper … the Telegraph’s Ben Riley-Smith.
WEEK AHEAD
MONDAY
COMMONS: Sits from 2.30 p.m. with education questions and the remaining stages of the Post Office (Horizon System) Offenses Bill.
LORDS: Peers debate the Genocide (Prevention and Response) Bill and the Leasehold and Freehold Reform Bill.
DEVOLUTION: The Resolution Foundation holds a conference on devolution with speakers including former First Minister of Wales Mark Drakeford and former Deputy First Minister of Scotland John Swinney, starting 9.30 a.m.
ENVIRONMENT: Greenhouse gas emissions for October to December 2023 released, 9.30 a.m.
HEALTH: The Centre for Social Justice launches a report on social care with speakers including Tory One Nation Caucus Chair Damian Green, 3 p.m.
TRANSPORT: Department for Transport Permanent Secretary Bernadette Kelly before the Public Accounts Committee about the rail transformation program, 4 p.m.
SPAIN: Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez makes a statement on his political future.
CONTINENT: POLITICO hosts the third edition of the Maastricht debate with Studio Europa Maastricht featuring eight of the recognized European political parties, 6 p.m. U.K. time.
TUESDAY
COMMONS: Sits from 11.30 a.m. with Foreign Office questions and consideration of Lords amendments to the Digital Markets, Competition and Consumers Bill.
LORDS: Peers debate the Victims and Prisoners Bill.
STATS: U.K. government debt and deficit figures for December 2023 released, 9.30 a.m.
LABOUR: The Reform think tank hosts a roundtable with Keir Starmer’s former Policy Director Claire Ainsley, 9.30 a.m.
BREXIT: New post-Brexit border checks and charges introduced.
COVID: The Covid-19 inquiry begins hearing evidence in Northern Ireland, starting 10 a.m.
LEADERSHIP: Former Department for Education Permanent Secretary Jonathan Slater appears before the Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Committee discussing civil service leadership, 10 a.m.
WHIPS: The Institute for Government has a panel on the Whips’ Office with speakers including former Lib Dem Chief Whip Alistair Carmichael, 12.30 p.m.
FOREIGN AFFAIRS I: Former MI6 Chief Alex Younger probed by the Foreign Affairs Committee on counter terrorism, 2 p.m.
FOREIGN AFFAIRS II: Foreign Secretary David Cameron questioned by the Lords’ International Relations and Defense Committee, 3 p.m.
POWER: Former Prime Minister Theresa May speaks at Chatham House about the abuse of power, 6 p.m.
WEDNESDAY
COMMONS: Sits from 11.30 a.m. with Scotland questions and PMQs followed by the remaining stages of the Automated Vehicles Bill [Lords].
LORDS: Peers debate the Alternative Investment Fund Designation Bill and the Leasehold and Freehold Reform Bill.
SCOTLAND: Earliest date MSPs could vote on a motion of no confidence in Scottish First Minister Humza Yousaf.
NORTHERN IRELAND: Troubles-related inquests halted under the Legacy and Reconciliation Act.
FOREIGN AFFAIRS: Foreign Office Minister David Rutley questioned by the Foreign Affairs Committee about Gibraltar, 9.30 a.m.
LAW: Supreme Court President Robert Reed and Vice President Patrick Hodge in front of the Lords’ Constitution Committee, 10.15 a.m.
IMMIGRATION: Legal Migration Minister Tom Pursglove and Transport Minister Guy Opperman probed by the European Scrutiny Committee about the U.K. border, 2.30 p.m.
DATA: The Reform think tank has an event on AI with Downing Street’s Chief Analyst and Director of Data Science Laura Gilbert, 4 p.m.
POLLS: The Institute for Government has a discussion previewing the local elections with speakers including political scientist John Curtice, 6.30 p.m.
THURSDAY
COMMONS: Sits from 9.30 a.m. with business and trade questions followed by Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt’s business statement and backbench debates on security in the Balkans and pension schemes.
ELECTION I: Voting in the local elections — covering councils, mayoralties and police and crime commissioners — takes place.
ELECTION II: The Blackpool South by-election to replace former Tory MP Scott Benton is held.
ECONOMY: OECD publishes its economic outlook ahead of a ministerial council meeting.
FRIDAY
STATS: Public sector productivity data for October to December 2023 released, 9.30 a.m.
SATURDAY
RESULTS: The winners of the West Midlands and London mayoralties announced.
Writing Monday morning Playbook: Stefan Boscia.
Thanks: To Jack Blanchard for giving Crunch some Sunday sparkle.
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