AJ Preller is entering his 10th full season as the Padres' chief baseball decision-maker. Here's a look at the biggest hits (and misses) of his tenure:
Acquired Wil Myers for Trea Turner (December 2014): The first of Preller's trades is in the running for his worst. In a three-team deal that brought Wil Myers to the Padres, Preller unloaded a shortstop the previous baseball operations regime selected 13th overall six months earlier. That shortstop's name was Trea Turner, who was the starting shortstop for the World Series champion Nationals in 2019, has won a batting title and is a two-time All-Star. Myers, who received a six-year, $83 million contract in 2016, was a serviceable and versatile player who was well-liked in the clubhouse but beset by inconsistency. From 2015-22, Turner compiled a 29.6 bWAR to Myers' 12.3 bWAR for the Padres in that span. José Castillo and Gerardo Reyes, also acquired in the deal, pitched briefly for the Padres. Catcher Ryan Hanigan was immediately traded to Boston for third baseman Will Middlebrooks, who played one season in San Diego. The Padres also parted with four players who essentially were/have been big-league journeymen.
Acquired Matt Kemp for Zach Eflin and Yasmani Grandal (December 2014): One of the cornerstones of Preller's attempt to build an immediate winner, Kemp became the embodiment of the failed experiment. His season-and-a-half with the Padres was among the worst stretches of his career. He was average (at best) on the field and aloof (at best) off it. By comparison, Grandal thrived in Los Angeles. Eflin has been a middling starter and has been dogged by injuries. Pitcher Joe Wieland was also sent to the Dodgers, spent most of the season in Triple-A and was pitching in Japan two years later. Catcher Tim Federowicz, acquired from L.A., injured his knee in spring training and never played for the Padres.
(1) Acquired Justin Upton for Max Fried (December 2014): Upton had a relatively down year (.790 OPS) but was the Padres' lone All-Star in 2015. The Padres received a compensatory first-round pick when Upton signed with the Tigers the following offseason. They used that pick on Eric Lauer, who pitched for them in 2018 and '19 before being used to help get Zach Davies and Trent Grisham from the Brewers. Fried has a 3.03 ERA in 139 games (122 starts) for the Braves, was runner-up in Cy Young voting in 2022 and finished fifth in 2020. The Padres also got minor league pitcher Aaron Northcraft, who bounced around organizations before returning the Padres and making five relief appearances for them in 2021. Of the three other players (Dustin Peterson, Jace Peterson and Mallex Smith) the Padres sent to Atlanta, Jace Peterson is the only one still in the majors. A line can also be drawn from Fried to Yu Darvish.
(2) Acquired Craig Kimbrel for Cameron Maybin, Carlos Quentin, Matt Wisler and Jordan Paroubeck (April 2015): The best thing the Braves got in this trade was the 41st pick in the 2015 draft, which they used to select third baseman Austin Riley, who is a two-time Silver Slugger winner. Kimbrel saved 39 games and posted a 2.58 ERA for a Padres team that ended up not really needing an elite closer, and the club parlayed him into a haul for four highly regarded prospects — Logan Allen, Carlos Asuaje, Javy Guerra and Manuel Margot — following the season. All played for the Padres, though none consistently excelled. Only Guerra remained by the 2020 season, and he had by then been converted from a shortstop to a pitcher. Through a series for trades, Margot can be considered a part of helping the Padres get future closers Taylor Rogers and Josh Hader.
Acquired Fernando Tatis Jr. for James Shields (June 2016): Undoubtedly the best trade of Preller's tenure and arguably one of the biggest heists in recent memory. Now, it did cost the Padres $31 million — the amount they sent to Chicago to cover about half of Shields' remaining salary. But the Padres got a 16-year-old who at the time had not played a minor league game and has since won two Silver Sluggers and one Gold Glove (and is still just 25) for a pitcher who had been one of baseball's most consistent and durable but went on to post a 5.31 ERA over the final 76 starts of his career.
Acquired Bryan Mitchell and Chase Headley for Jabari Blash (December 2017): It's difficult to get too worked up about any experimenting Preller did during this period when the Padres were clearly not focused on winning immediately. So other than essentially lighting $13 million on fire (the balance of Headley's contract), this trade was merely a speed bump. Headley, who had starred for the Padres earlier in the decade, was released a little more than a month into the 2018 season. Mitchell had a 5.42 ERA over 73 innings, spent 2019 in Triple-A and was let go after that season. Blash was traded to the Angels, played 24 games for them in 2018 and concluded his career in Japan.
Acquired Brett Nicholas for Emmanuel Clase (May 2018): Clase, 19 at the time and yet to advance to Single-A, was the player to be named later in a trade made a month earlier with the Rangers for catcher Brett Nicholas. The Padres stashed the 29-year-old Nicholas in Triple-A and granted his free agency after the season. Clase made his major league debut late in 2019, was traded to Cleveland that December and has led the major league in saves each
of the past two seasons.
Acquired Jake Cronenworth and Tommy Pham for Hunter Renfroe and two minor leaguers (December 2019): Pham was the headliner in the deal coming to San Diego, but it was Cronenworth who — after making his MLB debut — made the biggest contribution to the Padres' 2020 playoff run and who is still around as an intended core member of the team. The versatile infielder had a down year offensively in 2023, but in his first three seasons had a higher WAR than all but 18 other major leaguers and in the 2022 playoffs drove in the winning runs in a decisive playoff victory over the Dodgers. Renfroe, now on his sixth team since leaving the Padres, ranks 24th in the majors since 2020 with a home run every 18 at-bats. Xavier Edwards and Esteban Quiroz, also part of the package sent to Tampa, made their MLB debuts for different teams last season.
Acquired Mike Clevinger and two others for six players (August 2020): This was Preller's biggest "what-if" trade. As in, what if Clevinger — who had been one of MLB's top pitchers the previous 3½ seasons — hadn't injured his elbow near the end of that season? But he did — and so did Dinelson Lamet, which essentially doomed the Padres to being blown out by the Dodgers in the National League Division Series. That — along with Clevinger missing the following season and enduring a mediocre, injury-riddled 2022 — paints the jettisoning of a half-dozen players, all of whom were at the time or previously among the Padres' top prospects, in a less-flattering light. Josh Naylor continues to start for the Guardians, and Gabriel Arias is a utility player while left-hander Joey Cantillo is expected to make his major league debut in 2024. Austin Hedges, Owen Miller and Cal Quantrill are on other teams. The Padres also received outfielder Greg Allen, who played one game for them, and pitcher Matt Waldron, who started six games last season and could start more this year.
Acquired Austin Nola and two relievers for Ty France, Andrés Muñoz and Taylor Trammell (August 2020): Perhaps the only trade that can challenge the jettisoning of Trea Turner as a potentially career-defining blunder by Preller. France was an All-Star in 2021 and has put up a 118 OPS-plus while anchoring first base for the Mariners. The 25-year-old Muñoz, who throws 100 mph, is projected as the Mariners' closer in 2024. Neither Nola nor relievers Austin Adams or Dan Altavila remain with the club. Nola had an 82 OPS-plus over parts of four seasons and signed a minor league deal with the Brewers last month, Adams was designated for assignment by the Mets earlier this month, and Altavila pitched his last game in the majors in 2021.
Acquired Blake Snell for Luis Patiño, Francisco Mejia and two minor leaguers (December 2020): This was the first of three deals completed during the 2020-21 offseason that would create a new nucleus of the starting rotation. Snell struggled to adapt away from his adopted home of Tampa and the Rays organization before ascending into one of MLB's best starting pitchers over the past two-plus seasons, a run that culminated in his winning the NL Cy Young Award last year and becoming a free agent. Patiño is back with the Padres as a waiver claim after unremarkable stints with the Rays and White Sox. Mejia served as a serviceable backup catcher for the Rays before leaving after last season. The minor leaguers in the deal, Blake Hunt and Cole Wilcox, have yet to make it to the major leagues.
Acquired Yu Darvish and Victor Caratini for Zach Davies and four minor leaguers (December 2020): Preller acquired one of the game's most accomplished pitchers in what was essentially a simultaneous move with the Snell trade. Darvish has averaged more than 165 innings over his three seasons with the Padres and been exceptional when healthy. Caratini, his personal catcher, proved to be a bonus performer before being traded on opening day in 2022. Davies has largely struggled with the Cubs and Diamondbacks, who released him at the end of the 2023 season. The minor leaguers sent to Chicago were all ranked between 11th and 16th in the Padres' system and were all between the ages of 17 and 20. Owen Caissie remains one of the Cubs' highest-ranked prospects and is in major league camp; none of the others has advanced past Single-A.
Acquired Joe Musgrove for Joey Lucchesi, David Bednar and three minor leaguers (January 2021): The relatively rare trade that can be judged solely on the return. Musgrove has been outstanding in his return to his hometown. His 3.05 ERA ranks sixth in the majors (minimum 400 IP) since 2021, and he has turned in two of the most iconic performances in Padres history — the franchise's only no-hitter in 2021 and seven shutout innings in a wild-card clinching victory in New York in 2022. So it doesn't matter that Bednar became an effective closer for the Pirates or that Joey Lucchesi has shown promise as a Mets starter, or what any of the minor leaguers do in the future. The three-team deal also involved the Padres sending Lucchesi to the Mets. The lefty missed the 2022 season following Tommy John surgery but returned to post a 2.89 ERA in nine starts last season.
Acquired Josh Hader for Taylor Rogers, Dinelson Lamet, Esteury Ruiz and Robert Gasser (August 2022): The Padres got arguably the best closer in the game for the cost of a struggling closer, another fading pitcher and their eighth- and ninth-ranked prospects. Only Gasser, a starting pitcher who did well in Triple-A last season, remains with the Brewers. Hader helped the Padres to the National League Championship Series in 2022 and was an All-Star in 2023, but his strict usage rules made his tenure in San Diego somewhat mixed. He departed as a free agent and signed with the Astros earlier this year.
(3) Acquired Juan Soto and Josh Bell for CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, Luke Voit and three prospects (August 2022): In arguably the biggest trade-deadline deal in history, the Padres got a player they expected to have for three pennant races. They had him for two, only one of which involved an actual playoff appearance. Soto's arrival was so heralded that his superb numbers for the Padres (an .893 OPS, which was 73 points lower than his career average before joining the team) felt deflating. Bell was a severe disappointment in his 53 games with the team. Abrams and Gore, former No. 1 prospects for the Padres, are being allowed to develop on the Nationals' major league roster. Robert Hassell III, the organization's top prospect at the time of the trade, struggled at Double-A last year. James Wood, the Padres' No. 3 prospect at the time of the trade, hit 18 home runs in 323 at-bats in Double-A last year. Jarlin Susana, a hard-throwing starter, probably will be in Double-A as a 19-year-old this year. Soto, who was due more than $30 million in 2024, was flipped along with Trent Grisham in December for four highly touted pitchers and catcher Kyle Higashioka. One of them, Drew Thorpe, was packaged to the Chicago White Sox earlier this month for righty Dylan Cease.
This story originally appeared in San Diego Union-Tribune.
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