This could be the end of the line for Bill Belichick in New England.
But as we all know, Brady was more than ready to depart after a playoff loss to Tennessee at the end of the 2019 season, and owner Robert Kraft — mediating a long-simmering cold war between arguably the greatest player in the history of the NFL and arguably its greatest coach — signed off on life without Brady. And life with Belichick and the likes of Cam Newton, Brian Hoyer and Mac Jones (and even a smidgen of Bailey Zappe) has proved far below grade, even by the most modest of parity-tinged standards.
Sunday’s 34-0 capitulation to the Saints — which began without much of a pulse and featured another quick Jones pick-six and a collective whimper down 24 points early in the second half — was the exclamation point on a horrible start to the season and years of roster rot. Belichick, who oversees every nuance of Patriots football operations, has suffered the two most lopsided losses of his head coaching career in the last two weeks (a combined 72-3; the worst back-to-back New England losses since 1970). His team is averaging 11 points a game, and opponents have scored as many points off Patriots turnovers (55) as his club has mustered on offense all season.
They are 1-4; the win came in a 15-10 rock fight with the Jets, a franchise Belichick has topped 15 straight times. They are underdogs Sunday to the lowly Raiders, who happen to be coached by longtime Belichick protégé Josh McDaniels. New England’s record since Brady left is 26-29, same as the Raiders, tied for 20th in the NFL. They are 20th or worse in points per game, yards per game and passing yards per game since the GOAT went down to Tampa.
“Is he on the hot seat?” said one NFL general manager, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss another franchise, while using a distinctly incredulous tone. “How can he not be on the hot seat? He has to be on the hot seat. That’s a bad roster, and it’s been bad for years. The quarterback is terrible, and [Belichick’s] fingerprints are on literally everything they do. That’s one of the worst teams in the league.”
The same questions are being asked all over the NFL. How much of this can Kraft stomach? What’s his breaking point? It’s clear that Brady’s unique greatness will only gain greater sheen over time; it did not take long for this franchise to become a bit of a mess without him. Some whisper that perhaps Belichick, at 71 the second-oldest coach in the league, is ready to move on as well, and that if he’s motivated by the prospect of passing Don Shula’s all-time wins mark — Shula has 347 including the postseason, 17 more than Belichick — he’s not necessarily sentimentally tied to doing so in New England.
“There isn’t a doubt in my mind that Robert Kraft has the [guts] to fire Bill Belichick,” said someone who has worked in the NFL for a generation and knows Kraft and Belichick well, speaking on the condition of anonymity to preserve those relationships. “Think about the [guts] it took to hire him in the first place — when he did it and the circumstances around how he did it. This is the NFL. The Browns eventually pushed out Paul Brown. Of course it’s on his mind.”
No one I spoke with suggested Kraft would mull an in-season coaching change, but this could be a January unlike any other this millennium in New England, with some NFL executives believing Jonathan Kraft, the team president and son of the owner, might prefer a younger coach with less autonomy over football operations. There is already chatter in industry circles about the Bears being a potential destination if they fire Coach Matt Eberflus but retain General Manager Ryan Poles, who broke into the league in Kansas City under longtime Belichick personnel man Scott Pioli. Indeed, chasing history from inside Halas Hall might resonate deeply with the football historian in Belichick. The Mara family has long let Belichick, an esteemed defensive coordinator during the Giants’ zenith with Bill Parcells, have outsize sway over their coaching searches; would they go after the icon himself if available despite it being just the second year of the team’s current regime?
“It’s Bill Belichick. Of course there would be a market for him,” said one coaching agent who is an authority on the market but does not represent Belichick. “The age and maybe the energy level would be a factor. It might not be a huge market. But there would be a market, and at this point, I wonder if in a perverse sort of way if Bill would prefer to be let go and be a free agent in this [upcoming] market.”
What’s not up for debate is the roster decay, poor quarterback play and atrocious fundamental football that have become the new Patriot Way. Most troubling, a lack of passion and pride has stood out to many who have watched their film. (“I didn’t like what I saw down 30 points,” one scout said. “That’s not how Bill’s teams play.”) The holdovers from the Patriots’ golden days are becoming fewer and further between on this roster, and embarrassment about the current state of affairs surely runs deep.
Belichick is getting almost nothing out of handpicked recent additions such as Ezekiel Elliott, Hunter Henry, Mike Gesicki and JuJu Smith-Schuster, and his defense is without its two best individual performers — game-changing edge rusher Matt Judon and rookie cornerback Christian Gonzalez — because of long-term injuries. The talent imbalance between New England and much of the league at the most impactful positions in modern football — quarterback, left tackle, pass rusher, wide receiver — is stark, with Belichick’s predilection for his type of guys leaving the Patriots devoid of sufficient acceleration and explosion.
Would Kraft oversee a sell-off of sorts at the trade deadline with what enticing talent the Patriots still retain? Would Belichick, at this stage of his career, be the right man to oversee a thorough rebuild? Now is when we mention that Belichick is 219-64 with Brady in the regular season and 80-92 without him — which would be the fourth-worst mark among all head coaches with at least 150 games. He’s also 44-48 in New England when someone other than Brady starts at quarterback.
The coach outlasted Brady in New England, though the quarterback immediately won a Super Bowl with Tampa Bay. And for all his unparalleled brilliance, Brady’s last pass as a Patriot was a season-ending pick-six to former teammate Logan Ryan with seconds remaining in a first-round playoff game. It’s fair to wonder whether Belichick’s last act in New England will be considerably more inglorious.
