Indian Economy - Next Chapter

Cygnus-X1 · Mar 28, 2024

NeolibShill said:
Yes, China has certain unique advantages that will be difficult to replicate. Also agreed that the feasibility studies should be done, if even just to ensure that lines are optimally aligned instead of going over areas that shouldn't have them.

However, India doesn't need authoritarianism or massive financial muscle to rezone the land around stations and then allow the private sector to naturally take advantage of it. Zone for high density, increase FSI, and create the conditions that allow private sector builders to bring the ridership to your system. Here's a great example from Hong Kong- an empty land parcel turned into an entire neighborhood, clustered around a single station.

View attachment 6958122

Another reason to look at China is because India will have many massive "lower tier" cities in the future, and the only nation which compares in scale is China. So, how do they make their many cities of between 5-10 million work?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_cities#List

For cities with more than 5 million people, there's basically three broad groups. Megacities in developing nations, which are generally not nice places to live. The likes of Dhaka, Kinshasa, Karachi.

Then, developed megacities across Europe and Asia, which almost all rely heavily on using both metro and bus networks to reduce congestion, pollution and basically make their cities livable. Everything from Tokyo at the high end of the population scale, to St. Petersburg and Qingdao.

Then you have a handful of extremely sprawled out North American cities which rely on personal cars, like Houston or Phoenix.

If we know that places like Surat, Jaipur, Lucknow etc will end up with massive populations between 6-10 million in the next couple of decades, there is nothing wrong with building up infrastructure in advance of those people arriving. And yes, that quick urbanization happens naturally and will occur even in democratic India, Chinese cities didn't become what they are because people were forced into them by the CCP. Urbanization is natural with industrialization.

India's problem since independence has been that it waits too long to build the things that the population desperately needs. Doing the opposite has its own unique issues (such as building out lines that are currently underutilized) but I'd take it any day over the former.

I think you haven't got the context right....
The print article is rightly pointing out that enormously expensive metro systems is not the way to start public transport services in most Indian cities because Indian cities do not even have basic bus services, let alone proper bus services, which is where the quest for a city's public transport must begin.

Instead, most Indian cities are jumping headlong to very high cost, very high-capacity metro systems without having the basics of urban transport in place, which at the very least, is a vast network of buses that can enable movement & feed passengers from one mode to the other. The reason why the metro is being chased is for status /bragging & for vote-bank politics & does very little to solve city transport issues.

For example, Jakarta has an extensive & far cheaper BRT system with over 250km routes, also commuter rail (over 200km), light rail (over 60km). They have started building a metro system after building & operating all the above cheaper options & developing a network that can eventually feed the metro rapid transit.
But most Indian cities are chasing metro without any other public transport modes, mostly for status /bragging /politics is the point of the article.

KalashniKaul · Mar 28, 2024

Another under appreciated change since Modi came, India's NIIP has remained pretty much stable since UPA was kicked out. The amount of "Modi desh bech raha hai" crap congis pull, truth is the exact opposite.

Archylove69 · Mar 28, 2024

Cygnus-X1 said:
I think you haven't got the context right....
The print article is rightly pointing out that enormously expensive metro systems is not the way to start public transport services in most Indian cities because Indian cities do not even have basic bus services, let alone proper bus services, which is where the quest for a city's public transport must begin.

Instead, most Indian cities are jumping headlong to very high cost, very high-capacity metro systems without having the basics of urban transport in place, which at the very least, is a vast network of buses that can enable movement & feed passengers from one mode to the other. The reason why the metro is being chased is for status /bragging & for vote-bank politics & does very little to solve city transport issues.

For example, Jakarta has an extensive & far cheaper BRT system with over 250km routes, also commuter rail (over 200km), light rail (over 60km). They have started building a metro system after building & operating all the above cheaper options & developing a network that can eventually feed the metro rapid transit.
But most Indian cities are chasing metro without any other public transport modes, mostly for status /bragging /politics is the point of the article.

In the year 2017 MoHUA had released guidelines for mass transport services for Indian cities

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...Ic5IbzAJ9Vod-273d7z0[/URL]"]Untitled Document

They had Clearly stated that Metro system are very expensive and they should be the last option

Afer that, many cities like Prayagraj,Nashik etc proposed building of Metro Neo and Metro lite stuff

Now in 2024 none of the proposal for Metrolite/Metro Neo/LRT etc have actually come on ground

The main reasons could be lack of technological partnership with foreign companies to build any of such systems and the prevalence of Metro lobby which is still pushing for expensive projects in other cities

For the upgradation of Bus facilities the CG is already providing assistance to buy 50k of E-buses for various cities... Even though they aren't enough then the local municipals should lease couple of more buses to there fleet

sankar tho · Mar 28, 2024

My Opinion differs to that of Cygnus-X1 . If China can do that 100 , we can do at least 10 with our faulty system . Plus any kind of infrastructure isnt a waste Infrastructure . It works some way or other- directly or indirectly . I would even say to the extent of pumping more money to order more Monorail trains for Mumbai despite knowing the fact that it is in running loss currently . Coming to Jaipur Metro , Last summer I visited City of Jaipur & very surprisingly system is useful for a visitor reaching Railway station or Bus stand to connect with most of Tourist places possibly with the exception of Forts on Hill top . Footfall pick up gradually with more extensions .

KalashniKaul · Mar 28, 2024

rscla · Mar 28, 2024

Sure. Best wishes to everyone too.

Cygnus-X1 · Mar 28, 2024

sankar tho said:
any kind of infrastructure isnt a waste Infrastructure

I might agree with you for those infra like roads that govts do not need to keep spending lot of money to keep the infra from degrading & becoming useless, whether poorly used or not used.

But fixed guide rail systems for mass transits are completely different & in a league on their own. They are several hundred times more expensive than any other type of infra & are hugely capital hungry just to keep them running. Being highly automated with use of electronics, if operations are halted to save on costs, they will rot in no time. All components such as stations, access controls, signaling systems, power utilities, control systems, tracks etc will degrade & will need massive capital infusion to get them operational again. On the other hand, they suck up huge money just to keep them running.

Thus, one can't say build them & they will be useful someday - because by the time that some day arrives, even if it ever comes, heavy burdensome costs would have been incurred just to keep them running, which is national wastage at a very high level that is completely avoidable. Specially building them not as transport solutions but just for bragging /status /vote-bank politics.

ramjesh · Mar 28, 2024

All the cities in which metro is currently operational in India truly does need the rail based public transit. These cities surely does need atleast one and max 2 full fledged metro lines to connect their Airport, Main Bazaar, Railway Station and other denser region. But I don't see building other full fledged extensions. These main trunk lines should be integrated with an extensive network of light metros.
For example: The current two lines of Nagpur Metro are more than sufficient to act as a trunk. There is no need to build other full scale metro lines there. Instead Nagpur will be better off spending that money on light metro networks.

SSCwarrior · Mar 28, 2024

Adani starts $1.2 billion copper plant; to boost India's metal production

Adani Group launches world's largest copper plant in Gujarat to boost India's self-reliance and energy transition.

www.thehindu.com

rscla · Mar 28, 2024

An eye opener about Meesho.

Number of orders delivered by e-commerce companies in India per day.

Amazon - 26 lakh
Flipkart -24 lakh
Meesho - 37.5 lakh

A 9-year-old Indian startup, Meesho has overtaken the e-commerce giants in order volume, and became the fastest-growing e-commerce company in India.(Src: ET)

Meesho, founded in 2015 by IIT Delhi alumni, started as Fashnear - a platform connecting fashion stores with local customers.

Meesho identified a huge opportunity:

Millions of customers seeking value purchases were overlooked by traditional e-commerce platforms.

They created a model that resonated with this demographic. Wide assortment at everyday low prices mirroring local markets!

I must confess I knew nothing about this Meesho.

KalashniKaul · Mar 28, 2024

Domestic drug firms to witness 8-10 pc revenue growth in FY25: Report

Following the high base of 2023-24, the revenue growth momentum from the US and Europe markets is expected to moderate to 8-10 per cent and 7-9 per cent, respectively, Icra said. The markets are expected to witness a year-on-year expansion of 18-20 per cent and 16-18 per cent, respectively, in...

economictimes.indiatimes.com

Luminous Power Technologies inaugurates solar panel manufacturing factory in Uttarakhand

According to the statement, the inauguration event was graced by legendary cricketer and Luminous Brand Ambassador Sachin Tendulkar, accompanied by Preeti Bajaj, CEO & MD, Luminous Power Technologies, and Manish Pant, Chairman of Luminous Board & Executive VP - International Operations...

economictimes.indiatimes.com

India's fixed communication revenue to grow to $13.2 bn in 2028 vs $11.5 bn in 2023: GlobalData

According to a GlobalData report out Thursday, revenue from fixed broadband services will grow at a CAGR of 3.5% in the 2023-2028 period, driven by a growth in broadband subscription and higher average revenue per user (ARPU) from fiber broadband.

economictimes.indiatimes.com

rscla said:
An eye opener about Meesho.

Number of orders delivered by e-commerce companies in India per day.

Amazon - 26 lakh
Flipkart -24 lakh
Meesho - 37.5 lakh

A 9-year-old Indian startup, Meesho has overtaken the e-commerce giants in order volume, and became the fastest-growing e-commerce company in India.(Src: ET)

Meesho, founded in 2015 by IIT Delhi alumni, started as Fashnear - a platform connecting fashion stores with local customers.

Meesho identified a huge opportunity:

Millions of customers seeking value purchases were overlooked by traditional e-commerce platforms.

They created a model that resonated with this demographic. Wide assortment at everyday low prices mirroring local markets!

I must confess I knew nothing about this Meesho.

My mom loves Meesho tho

SSCwarrior · Mar 28, 2024

India adds 24 GW of solar PV manufacturing capacity in 2023: Report

Gujarat is the leader with a share of 46% in total installed capacity

www.thehindubusinessline.com

India needs deeper investment into cell, wafer and polisilicon manufacturing. Modules make up <15% of the value of a solar

avishar · Mar 28, 2024

Blackstone plans to add $25 billion in India private equity assets over five years

Blackstone Inc. plans to increase its Indian private equity assets by an additional $25 billion over the next five years, citing India's growing appeal to global investors. The New York-based firm also intends to expand its investment team in India and double its office space in Mumbai...

economictimes.indiatimes.com

KalashniKaul · Mar 28, 2024

Jindal Advanced Materials ties up with Italy's MAE to invest ₹2,700 crore ($340 million) in carbon fibre plant

Jindal Advanced Materials ties up with Italy's MAE to invest Rs 2,700 cr in carbon fibre plant

Jindal Advanced Materials and MAE S.p.A. join forces to invest in a carbon fibre plant, aiming to lead in carbon fibre production. Abhyuday Jindal's investment drives expansion plans for a diverse range of composite materials.

economictimes.indiatimes.com

Renault-Nissan To Invest $600-700 Million To Make India An Export Hub

Renault-Nissan aims to manufacture in India multiple powertrains, including those for hybrid cars, but not for electric vehicles as that's still a work in progress.

www.ndtvprofit.com

Hotels to see 9-11% revenue growth in FY25; third straight year in current upcycle: CareEdge Ratings Report

CareEdge Ratings predicts a 12-14% revenue per available room growth for the hospitality industry in FY2024, followed by a 9-11% growth in FY2025. The sector's recovery in occupancy rates and average rates has boosted revenue per available room. Average room rates are expected to rise, reaching...

economictimes.indiatimes.com

Bank credit to industry rises 8.6 pc in February, shows RBI data

RBI data revealed 8.6% year-on-year industry credit growth in February 2024, up from 6.8% in February 2023. Agriculture, food processing, and vehicle loans sectors showed significant credit variations compared to the previous year.

economictimes.indiatimes.com

Japan's Sumitomo Mitsubishi Banking Corp to open branch in GIFT City, Gandhinagar

Sumitomo Mitsubishi Banking Corp. (SMBC) has been granted approval to establish a branch in GIFT City, Gandhinagar. This move aims to streamline Japanese investments into India by reducing regulatory barriers. GIFT City operates within a special economic zone, encouraging exports and foreign...

economictimes.indiatimes.com

Loans to real estate rise four-fold in February

In February, bank lending increased by 16.5 percent, with loans to industry and services growing faster while retail loans growth moderated, as per RBI data. Non-food bank credit rose by 16.5 percent year-on-year, compared to 15.9 percent last year. Retail loans growth slowed to 18.1 percent...

economictimes.indiatimes.com

SSCwarrior · Mar 28, 2024

https://www.business-standard.com/companies/news/jam-ties-up-with-mae-to-invest-rs-2-700-crore-in-carbon-fibre-plant-124032800819_1.html

SSCwarrior · Mar 28, 2024

KalashniKaul said:
Jindal Advanced Materials ties up with Italy's MAE to invest ₹2,700 crore ($340 million) in carbon fibre plant

Jindal Advanced Materials ties up with Italy's MAE to invest Rs 2,700 cr in carbon fibre plant

Jindal Advanced Materials and MAE S.p.A. join forces to invest in a carbon fibre plant, aiming to lead in carbon fibre production. Abhyuday Jindal's investment drives expansion plans for a diverse range of composite materials.

economictimes.indiatimes.com

bruh same timing

KalashniKaul · Mar 29, 2024

India can achieve 10% growth rate in next decade: RBI deputy guv

Read more at:

India can achieve 10 pc growth rate in next decade: RBI deputy guv

RBI Deputy Governor predicts India's economy to become the world's largest by 2050, driven by 10% growth rate. Challenges include increasing female labor participation and enhancing exports, with a focus on high-value tourism and financial services.

economictimes.indiatimes.com

dreadathecontrols · Mar 29, 2024

KalashniKaul said:
India can achieve 10% growth rate in next decade: RBI deputy guv

Read more at:

India can achieve 10 pc growth rate in next decade: RBI deputy guv

RBI Deputy Governor predicts India's economy to become the world's largest by 2050, driven by 10% growth rate. Challenges include increasing female labor participation and enhancing exports, with a focus on high-value tourism and financial services.

economictimes.indiatimes.com

Sorry but there's always some joker throwing around big numbers , could be railways minister saying they be 500 VB's by next Xmas or this RBI wallah.
I'll be more than happy if the country sustains 6-7% over a full decade or even two.

great india · Mar 29, 2024

The goal should be sustaining a growth rate of 7%+ for the next 2 decades which will lead to compounding growth. As much as I would love to see 10% growth, this shouldn't be achieved by giving up fiscal responsibility. Fiscal prudence will keep our growth rate growing past our demographic dividend.

barrykul · Mar 30, 2024

Growth is a funny thing, you don't want growth for growth sake, since you end up making foolish compromises. eg. China overbuilt their entire nation, now they have empty buildings, their airports are white elephants with no customers since no one has the money for high price tickets, same is the case with their new fangled stolen tech high speed railway another brihad white elephant. With exports pipeline pretty much stopped they have excess capacity and they don't know what to do about such investments.

India requires sensible growth. Those states that are leading maybe it is prudent to tampen down the growth. Laggard states can press the accelerator, these states require 10% or more growth.

Two reform that are absolutely needed: Judicial and Babucracy/admin. Both of them tend to drag growth substantially. If they are reformed with IT systems and people are tracked on every thing for timeliness, everything can move much faster. We don't need judges writing long judgements, a smart GENerative AI program can do the job. All cases can be tracked with BPM tools, if time exceeds a default judgement is provided based on precedent. Babus must be given 10x goals otherwise time to fire them.

Indian Economy - Next Chapter

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