Liverpool have all but guaranteed their place in next season’s Champions League following Tottenham‘s 3-2 loss to Arsenal, barring a huge goal difference swing.
While the Reds are widely considered out of the title race as they sit five points off leaders Arsenal with three games to play, they are now all but safe in the top four.
This comes after Tottenham‘s failed comeback attempt in the north London derby on Sunday, fighting back from 3-0 down only to lose 3-2.
Liverpool now need just one point from the remaining clashes with Tottenham, Aston Villa and Wolves to guarantee qualification for the newly expanded Champions League.
They are likely to have already done so, however, given their goal difference advantage over Spurs, with Liverpool on +41 and Tottenham on +15.
It means the only way in which Tottenham can still beat Liverpool to the Champions League is if:
- Tottenham win all of their remaining five games
- Liverpool lose all of their remaining three games
- The goal difference between the two sides swings by 27
While it is not impossible, it is certainly unlikely, with Tottenham still to play Chelsea (A), Liverpool (A), Burnley (H), Man City (H) and Sheffield United (A) in the space of three weeks.
Even then, Aston Villa would also need to win all three of their remaining games and swing their goal difference by 21.
Arsenal and Man City are already booked for next season’s Champions League, with only Liverpool, Aston Villa and Tottenham in the running for the final two spots.
Neither Liverpool nor Aston Villa can finish below fifth, with eight clubs below them still technically in the fight for a European spot.
Next season’s Champions League will be the first since UEFA announced its expansion to a 36-team competition with no group stage.
The group stage will be replaced by a league format, with each club playing eight fixtures before the Champions League then separates for the knockout phase.
While the top eight teams from the league setup will go straight into the last 16, the remaining eight spots will be determined by two-legged playoffs between those who finished ninth to 24th.
Teams who are eliminated from the league setup by finishing 25th and below will not enter the Europa League as was the case in the previous group stage.
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