Columbus Weather: Flood watch in effect, tornadoes possible Tuesday

COLUMBUS, Ohio (WSYX) — Showers and thunderstorms will develop Monday night and some storms may be strong to severe. Be acutely #WeatherAware on Tuesday as we have a risk of widespread severe storms: the Storm Prediction Center suggests we have a significant chance of large tornadoes Tuesday afternoon and evening. Make sure you’re able to receive watches and warnings as severe storms develop.

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• MONDAY NIGHT (ALERT DAY): cloudy, breezy, showers and thunderstorms, some strong storms possible with gusty winds and hail, downpours, very mild, low 56.
• TUESDAY (ALERT DAY): cloudy, windy, showers and thunderstorms, widespread severe storms are possible with gusty winds, hail, and significant tornadoes, especially in the afternoon and evening, warm, high 71.
• WEDNESDAY: cloudy, rain and showers, heavy at times, dramatically cooler, high 46.
• THURSDAY: cloudy, wintry mix early becoming rain by midmorning and continuing in the afternoon, windy, brisk, high 45.
• FRIDAY: a few wintry mix and rain showers in the morning, gradual clearing in the afternoon, breezy, chilly, high 45.
• SATURDAY: mostly sunny, warmer, high 54.
• SUNDAY: mostly sunny in the morning becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon, warmer, high 60.
• ECLIPSE DAY MONDAY: partly cloudy and mild, chance of showers in the late evening, high 64.

FLOOD WATCH in effect for Central and Southern Ohio through Tuesday evening. Storms Monday and Tuesday could produce rainfall totals of 2” to 4” creating significant runoff issues. Rivers and streams may rise quickly. If you live in a flood-prone area, take precautions and be prepared to act quickly if water begins to rise.

At midday Monday, temperatures across Ohio were in the mid-50s and most of the state was reporting clouds. A few areas in Southeastern Ohio have broken clouds with sunshine adding warmth to the atmosphere. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along a stationary front this afternoon and evening. The front is draped along the Ohio River and will remain in place through the night. A series of low-pressure centers will track along the frontal boundary tonight and early Tuesday, generating plenty of showers and thunderstorms. A larger low will move through the state Tuesday evening, disrupting the pattern. That low will drag a strong cold front through Central Ohio in the early evening and has the potential to kick up some very strong storms.

Monday evening’s thunderstorms are likely to be at their strongest before midnight. Gusty winds and hail are the biggest threats but an isolated tornado is possible. The Storm Prediction Center has assigned a Marginal (Level 1 of 5) and Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) to Central and Southern Ohio.

Tuesday’s storms will come in waves but the strongest storms are likely to be in the afternoon and early evening. And the potential for severe storms is likely to be widespread across Ohio. While hail and gusty winds are the most significant threats, SPC suggests we have a better than 10% chance of significant tornadoes (EF2-EF5); most of Ohio is at a Moderate Risk (Level 4 of 5) for widespread severe storms.

It is imperative to have a reliable way to receive watches and warnings in the next 48 hours.

Another low-pressure center follows on Wednesday. This one drops down from the northwest, through the Upper Great Lakes and helps push the Mon/Tues storm system(s) out of the region. By then, the chance of thunder is mostly gone, but occasionally heavy rain is still possible. The Wednesday system brings in much cooler air behind it, and is likely to convert some of the rain showers to snow and mix showers by Thursday morning. Accumulations are unlikely, but some wet snowflakes may land on grassy areas. Windy, wet, colder conditions persist on Thursday even as the storm moves off the East Coast.

A few, leftover wintry mix and rain showers are possible Friday morning with clearing later in the day. As high pressure builds into the region Friday night, clearing will continue. The weekend looks beautiful with temperatures slowly warming back up toward average.

ECLIPSE DAY: April 8 has entered our seven-day forecast period. We’re seeing some discrepancies in the model solutions for Monday, Eclipse Day. So, for now, the confidence in the forecast is moderate to low. But... at the moment, it looks like a partly cloudy afternoon with mild temperatures and a chance of rain late in the evening. We’ll be watching closely as new data comes in and we’ll keep you updated!