“A Star is Born” is predicted to lead with the most Oscar nominations on Tuesday morning, racking up a whopping 11 bids. That isn’t surprising given that it has dominated the guild awards, with nominations from 12 of these 13 industry groups (it only missed out with the visual effects wizards). Right behind Bradley Cooper‘s remake of this Hollywood classic will be two very different movies — the Marvel comic book come to life “Black Panther” and the costume drama “The Favorite” — with 10 nominations apiece for the 2019 Oscars.
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While we figure “First Man” will earn nine nominations, we don’t have it pegged as much of a threat for Best Picture, with most of its bids in below-the-line categories. Likewise for “Vice,” which is tipped to get six nominations, including one for the top award. While it will reap several acting nominations and Adam McKay will pick up one for his original screenplay, we expect him to be snubbed for Best Director.
Conversely, we think that “Roma,” which is expected to get eight nominations is a strong contender for Best Picture. Multi-hyphenate Alfonso Cuaron will figure in five of those bids for producing, directing, writing, lensing and editing this memoir of his early years in Mexico.
Two of the other leading Best Picture hopefuls — “BlacKkKlansman” and “Green Book” — will be represented in just five races apiece but they will be the marquee categories like directing and acting. And with “Green Book” having just won Best Picture at the PGA Awards, it is now the frontrunner to take that top award at the 91st annual Academy Awards.
SEE ‘Green Book’ win at PGA Awards boosts its Best Picture Oscar odds: Could SAG Awards change that?
If the Best Picture race, which can have as few as five nominees, expands to the maximum of 10, we are predicting bids by “Bohemian Rhapsody” and “If Beale Street Could Talk,” which are both expected to reap three nominations in other races.
Before making your predictions in this category as well as the other 23 Academy Awards races, take a look at our rankings of the likeliest nominees (as of this writing). These Oscar odds are derived from 30 Experts, who are journalists covering Hollywood year-round; our in-house team of nine Editors; the Top 24 readers who got the highest scores predicting last year’s nominations; the All-Stars, who’ve done the best predicting the past several years; and upwards of 7,500 readers like you.
BEST PICTURE
“A Star Is Born” — 7/1
“Roma” — 7/1
“Green Book” — 8/1
“The Favourite” — 17/2
“BlacKkKlansman” — 17/2
“Black Panther” — 19/2
“Vice” — 21/2
“If Beale Street Could Talk” — 13/1
“Bohemian Rhapsody” — 14/1
“First Man” — 25/1
Spoiler: “Mary Poppins Returns” — 48/1
SEE Best Picture nominations: Voting and ballot counting explained in three easy steps
BEST DIRECTOR
Alfonso Cuaron (“Roma”) — 82/25
Bradley Cooper (“A Star Is Born”) — 4/1
Spike Lee (“BlacKkKlansman”) — 9/2
Yorgos Lanthimos (“The Favourite”) — 6/1
Peter Farrelly (“Green Book”) — 21/2
Spoiler: Adam McKay (“Vice”) — 22/1
BEST ACTRESS
Glenn Close (“The Wife”) — 71/20
Lady Gaga (“A Star Is Born”) — 39/10
Olivia Colman (“The Favourite”) — 4/1
Melissa McCarthy (“Can You Ever Forgive Me?”) — 5/1
Emily Blunt (“Mary Poppins Returns”) — 19/2
Spoiler: Yalitza Aparicio (“Roma”) — 13/1
BEST ACTOR
Christian Bale (“Vice”) — 19/5
Bradley Cooper (“A Star Is Born”) — 39/10
Rami Malek (“Bohemian Rhapsody”) — 4/1
Viggo Mortensen (“Green Book”) — 9/2
John David Washington (“BlacKkKlansman”) — 9/1
Spoiler: Ethan Hawke (“First Reformed”) — 13/1
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Regina King (“If Beale Street Could Talk”) — 17/5
Amy Adams (“Vice”) — 39/10
Rachel Weisz (“The Favourite”) — 9/2
Emma Stone (“The Favourite”) — 9/2
Claire Foy (“First Man”) — 15/2
Spoiler: Nicole Kidman (“Boy Erased”) — 42/1
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali (“Green Book”) — 17/5
Richard E. Grant (“Can You Ever Forgive Me?”) — 4/1
Sam Elliott (“A Star Is Born”) — 5/1
Timothee Chalamet (“Beautiful Boy”) — 11/2
Adam Driver (“BlacKkKlansman”) — 6/1
Spoiler: Michael B. Jordan (“Black Panther”) — 25/1
SEE Oscar nominations: Voting and ballot counting explained in three easy steps
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
“BlacKkKlansman” — 71/20
“If Beale Street Could Talk” — 39/10
“Can You Ever Forgive Me?” — 9/2
“A Star Is Born” — 9/2
“Black Panther” — 19/2
Spoiler: “First Man” — 25/1
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
“The Favourite” — 7/2
“Roma” — 4/1
“Green Book” — 9/2
“Vice” — 11/2
“First Reformed” — 8/1
Spoiler: “Eighth Grade” — 10/1
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
“Roma” — 16/5
“First Man” — 9/2
“The Favourite” — 9/2
“A Star Is Born” — 6/1
“Cold War” — 19/2
Spoiler: “If Beale Street Could Talk” — 21/2
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
“The Favourite” — 17/5
“Black Panther” — 19/5
“Mary Poppins Return” 9/2
“Mary Queen of Scots” — 9/2
“Bohemian Rhapsody” — 12/1
Spoiler: “Fantastic Beasts 2” — 18/1
SEE How many votes do you need in each of the 24 categories?
BEST FILM EDITING
“Roma” — 39/10
“First Man” — 9/2
“A Star Is Born” — 5/1
“The Favourite” — 13/2
“Vice” — 15/2
Spoiler: “BlacKkKlansman” — 16/1
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
“Vice” — 8/5
“Black Panther” — 57/20
“Mary Queen of Scots” — 15/2
Spoiler: “Bohemian Rhapsody” — 11/1
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
“The Favourite” — 71/20
“Black Panther” — 37/10
“Mary Poppins Return” — 5/1
“First Man” — 11/2
“Roma” — 19/2
Spoiler: “A Star Is Born” — 14/1
BEST SCORE
“First Man” — 69/20
“If Beale Street Could Talk” — 4/1
“Black Panther” — 9/2
“Mary Poppins Returns” — 5/1
“Isle of Dogs” — 7/1
Spoiler: “BlacKkKlansman” — 16/1
BEST SONG
“Shallow” (“A Star Is Born”) — 16/5
“All the Stars” (“Black Panther”) — 4/1
“I’ll Fight” (“RBG”) — 5/1
“The Place Where Lost Things Go” (“Mary Poppins Returns”) — 6/1
“Trip a Little Light Fantastic” (“Mary Poppins Returns”) — 9/1
Spoiler: “Girl in the Movies” (“Dumplin'”) — 21/2
BEST SOUND EDITING
“First Man” — 7/2
“Black Panther” — 4/1
“A Quiet Place” — 4/1
“A Star Is Born” — 11/2
“Roma” — 13/2
Spoiler: “Mission Impossible: Fallout” — 22/1
BEST SOUND MIXING
“A Star Is Born” — 18/5
“First Man” — 39/10
“Black Panther” — 11/2
“A Quiet Place” — 11/2
“Bohemian Rhapsody” — 7/1
Spoiler: “Mary Poppins Returns” — 12/1
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
“Black Panther” — 18/5
“Avengers: Infinity War” — 4/1
“Ready Player One” — 9/2
“First Man” — 5/1
“Mary Poppins Returns” — 7/1
Spoiler: “Solo: A Star Wars Story” — 18/1
SEE Who are the 7,902 voting members who decide the Academy Awards?
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
“Incredibles 2” — 37/10
“Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse” –37/10
“Isle of Dogs” — 4/1
“Ralph Breaks the Internet” — 9/2
“Mirai” — 11/2
Spoiler: “Early Man” — 92/1
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
“Won’t You Be My Neighbor?” — 10/3
“Free Solo” — 4/1
“RBG” — 9/2
“Three Identical Strangers” — 11/2
“Minding the Gap” — 11/2
Spoiler: “Hale County This Morning, This Evening” — 28/1
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
“Roma” — 16/5
“Cold War” — 39/10
“Shoplifters” — 9/2
“Capernaum” — 5/1
“Burning” — 15/2
Spoiler: “Never Look Away” — 18/1
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
“Bao” — 17/5
“Bilby” — 9/2
“Lost and Found” — 5/1
“Weekends” — 11/2
“Animal Behaviour” — 6/1
Spoiler: “Bird Karma” — 18/1
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
“Black Sheep” — 19/5
“Zion” — 19/5
“End Game” — 9/2
“Period. End of Sentence.” — 11/2
“Women of the Gulag” — 6/1
Spoiler: “Los Comandos” — 33/1
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
“Caroline” — 18/5
“Marguerite” — 4/1
“Detainment” — 9/2
“Skin” — 11/2
“Icare” — 6/1
Spoiler: “Fauve” — 20/1
PREDICT the Oscar nominations now; change them until January 22
Be sure to check out how our experts rank this year’s Oscar contenders. Then take a look at the most up-to-date combined odds before you make your own 2019 Oscar predictions. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before nominations are announced on January 22.
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