Jets vs. Canadiens odds, prediction: Crooked number coming in Montreal

There’s just one NHL game on Monday night, and it isn’t exactly going to be a ratings bonanza when the Winnipeg Jets travel to Montreal to take on the Canadiens. 

At this point of the NHL season, it is fair to incorporate motivation levels into your handicap. While the numbers still should dictate where your money is going, there will be some teams that bettors can add to a “do not bet list” as the season winds down.

Jets vs. Canadiens predictions

The Jets are seven points out of the playoffs with nine games to play. Winnipeg would need to win every game left on its schedule to even have a hope of getting into the postseason. It’s fair to say the Jets are done and will be playing out the string over the last two weeks of the season. 

Montreal, on the other hand, has been out of the playoff picture since Thanksgiving. Fresh off a trip to the Stanley Cup Final, the Habs opened the 2021/22 season with just four wins in their first 19 games. They continued to struggle until a coaching change was made, with Martin St. Louis hired to replace Dominique Ducharme. 

The Canadiens reacted quite positively to the move, skating to a 12-11-4 record in St. Louis’ first 27 games. A .519 points percentage isn’t exactly setting the world on fire, but Montreal was 8-30-7 under Ducharme, so it’s a marked improvement. And while their underlying numbers suggest some negative regression is to be expected, Montreal has a +5 goal differential at 5-on-5 under St. Louis. They were at -42 when Ducharme was handed his walking papers. 

The Jets also underwent a coaching change in the middle of this season, though theirs was unexpected. Paul Maurice, who had been behind the bench in Winnipeg since 2014, stepped down and assistant coach Dave Lowry took over on an interim basis. The switch didn’t produce a huge bounce, as Winnipeg has skated to a .533 points percentage in the 45 games since Lowry took over. 

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What’s more concerning is that Winnipeg’s defensive metrics — which have been poor for a few seasons now — got worse under Lowry. The Jets have allowed 2.72 expected goals against per 60 minutes over their last 45 games, which puts them in the bottom-six in the league over that span. 

And as well as Montreal has played for St. Louis, the defense remains a mess. Since St. Louis took over, the Habs are allowing over 14 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes, which is easily the worst mark in the NHL over that span. 

Usually, playing an over in a Jets game carries some risk because of Connor Hellebuyck’s ability to stand on his head in net. But with the Jets on a back-to-back, it looks likely that Eric Comrie will start in goal against Sam Montembeault.

Even though Comrie has a .912 save percentage and a +5.4 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) in 13 games for Winnipeg, he’s still a few tiers below Hellebuyck and his defense rarely does him any favors. Montembeault has struggled to an .896 save percentage and a -10.7 GSAx in 33 games for Montreal. 

Two poor defenses playing in front of two goaltenders that have plenty of potentials to struggle is a good recipe for an over. 

The bet: Over 6.5 (-120 or better)