ANDREAS Libavius, in his 1597 "Alchemia" ("Alchymia"), and Mikhail Lomonosov in 1763, first introduced the theory that fossil fuels are formed from the fossilized remains of dead plants by exposure to heat and pressure in the Earth's crust over millions of years.
Today, fossil fuel is known as "a hydrocarbon-containing material such as coal, oil and natural gas, formed naturally in the Earth's crust from the remains of dead plants and animals that is extracted and burned as fuel. Fossil fuels may be burned to provide heat for use directly (as in cooking), to power engines (as in motor vehicles) or to generate electricity. Some fossil fuels are refined into derivatives such as kerosene, gasoline and propane before burning." (Wikipedia)
Tipping point
Wikipedia reports, "In 2022, over 80 percent of primary energy consumption in the world and over 60 percent of its electricity was from fossil fuels. The large-scale burning of fossil fuels causes serious environmental damage. Over 70 percent of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions due to human activity in 2022 was CO2 from burning them. Natural processes on Earth, mostly absorption by the ocean, can remove only a small part of this CO2. Therefore, there is a net increase of many billion metric tons of atmospheric carbon dioxide per year." (Wikipedia)
There seems to be a higher level of awareness of the fact that fossil fuels are the main causes of today's environmental problems, including global warming, climate crisis and pollution. The fossil fuel industry is heavily integrated into the global economy, and therefore, a sudden stop in the usage of fossil fuels can prove disastrous to many. On the other hand, scientists argue that a transition from fossil fuel to clean energy can save millions of lives. Many stakeholders, therefore, seem to agree that a "just transition" is needed.
Climate analysts believe 2023 is the warmest year, as it is also the year in which annual emissions of GHGs, CO2, and other forms of carbon from energy use have reached a pinnacle before the global fossil fuel economy should begin a terminal decline.
On Dec. 30, 2023, The Guardian reported: "The world's leading climate scientists have consistently warned that the buildup of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere means it is critical to drive down emissions before 2030 if leaders hope to keep global heating to a maximum of 1.5 C above pre-industrialized levels. The rate at which emissions would need to be reduced will require, most experts agree, global transformation on a scale not yet in the pipeline."
Dave Jones, director of climate think tank Ember, said, "We can take a small pause to celebrate this tipping point. But in a way, it's worrying that we are still talking about when emissions might peak. The reality of the situation is that we need deep and fast reductions in emissions if we hope to stay within the vanishingly small budget for carbon which remains."
The International Energy Agency (IEA) raised hopes earlier this year of an end to the fossil fuel era when it predicted for the first time that the consumption of oil, gas and coal would peak before 2030 and begin to fall as climate policies took effect. (The Guardian)
The milestone is considered a crucial tipping point in the race to drive emissions to net zero. But for many climate experts it's an inflexion point that was due years ago and which, although encouraging, falls far short of the rapid reduction the world needs. (The Guardian)
Transition
The Ember report studied power generation across 78 countries, representing 92 percent of global electricity demand. Ember found a) a 16 percent rise in the amount of solar power generated and b) a 10 percent jump in global wind power output.
The IEA report also found a) the steady rise of wind and solar power could outpace the growing demand for energy, and b) the rollout of electric vehicles could start eroding the demand for road fuels, which make up 50 percent of oil demand in developed countries.
The IEA report is based on "a detailed review of the current policy landscape — what governments are doing rather than what they are saying they will do."
IEA's analysis shows China produces the "highest carbon emissions in the world, more than the emissions of the US, India and Russia combined." It also said that "they may reach a peak in 2023 before falling into a structural decline by 2024. The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air study, undertaken for Carbon Brief, found that China's rollout of wind and solar power had been faster than expected this year (2023) and could eclipse the country's growing energy appetite."
Dr. Neil Grant, an author of the report by Climate Analytics in 2023, said: "For years, energy demand growth has outstripped renewables deployment, despite record additions of wind and solar. We're now approaching the tipping point, where renewables overtake demand growth and start displacing coal, oil and gas. This would mark the beginning of the end for the fossil economy."
Claire Fyson, another author of the Climate Analytics report, however, warned that the existing trends that see rising renewables and electric motoring would need to continue to allow emissions to begin falling.
"This won't just happen by itself," Fyson said. "Technologies often follow an 'S' curve where they really take off, but over time, their progress can slow. You need government policy to continue to incentivize renewables and disincentivize fossil fuels."
Not everyone agrees that fossil fuels have reached the beginning of the end. Some reports say that some of the biggest oil producers in the world have publicly stated that oil demand — and emissions — show no sign of falling.
On Jan. 23, 2024, the International Trade Administration (ITA) published a report on the Philippine energy situation. The ITA reported: "The current energy mix in 2022 is made up of coal (31 percent), natural gas (4.2 percent), renewable energy (32.7 percent) and oil-based solutions (32.2 percent). While the country has indicated an interest in clean energy, this clearly will not come at the expense of development, and there are not any penalties or disincentives in place for utilizing different types of energy sources."
This means that the Philippines uses roughly 67.4 percent fossil fuels and 32.7 percent renewable energy to generate power or electricity.
The ITA concluded: "The need for electricity and solutions outside the main islands and major population centers is critical, but often is not commercially viable ... Recent global trends have made the Philippines more aware of the need for energy diversification, including nuclear energy/small modular reactors (SMRs) and energy storage."
We need to stop polluting the Earth before it's too late. It seems that renewable energy is the future.
Like the wind turbine says, "I'm a huge fan."
Ernie Cecilia is the chairman of the Human Capital Committee and the Publication Committee of the American Chamber of Commerce of the Philippines (AmCham); chairman of the Employers Confederation of the Philippines' (ECOP's) TWG on Labor and Social Policy Issues; and past president of the People Management Association of the Philippines (PMAP). He can be reached at [email protected].