[Ukraine] vladimir putin: yiff in hell - The Something Awful Forums
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What is the most powerful flying bug?
This poll is closed.
🦋 15 3.71%
🦇 115 28.47%
🪰 12 2.97%
🐦 67 16.58%
dragonfly 94 23.27%
🦟 14 3.47%
🐝 87 21.53%
Total: 404 votes

 
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Ardennes
May 12, 2002

Sanlav posted:

The CFR report is so ideological at this point. They did an accounting of the war in february that amounts to fantasy. They list all these appropriations of arms without counts or delivery involved. It's a sliver of a sliver of the overal package, only a portion got to Ukraine, all of it is nearly spent, and whats on the way in no way meets their needs. Yet they conclude we're doing the best, bang up job ever in supporting a war effort and a teensy bit more will slay Ruussia.

Mearshimer had a debate with Dobriansky last week that was just abysmal. Every talking point she made was this wishful thinking. She keeps countering every material weakness on the ground with "but we could send more and close that gap" ignoring the material realities abound.

There is no time, there is no productive capactiy, wishing and hoping time is long gone. If they need 5 million 155mm shells a year to fight Russia, either we deliver 5 million shells now or face the music. There's no tomorrow, but our official policy planning has no urgency. They are looking at it as a long term stalemate still.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rdtCyiKHtqE

It is a good reason why the Russians don't want to push that hard, boil the frog. Arguably, some more shells and AD is going to help the Ukrainians at this point...since they almost have none it seems, but it isn't going to resurrect their army and all the material that got lost along the way.

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Phigs
Jan 23, 2019

Sanlav posted:

There is no time, there is no productive capactiy, wishing and hoping time is long gone. If they need 5 million 155mm shells a year to fight Russia, either we deliver 5 million shells now or face

Russia's approach is making it look very much like a long term stalemate. It's probably an accidental side-effect of their strategy but it looks like it's helping keep urgency low. NATO just keeps learning the wrong lessons from what the Russians are doing.

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

�stalemate� implies ukriane has an army that is pressuring Russia in some way

Sanlav
Feb 10, 2020

We'll Meet Again

euphronius posted:

�stalemate� implies ukriane has an army that is pressuring Russia in some way

That's just it, either these budget tzars who administrate our liberal state are so plugged into msnbc and spook fiction they think the Ukranians are whittling down Russia and just need to last

Or they're monsters. Hideous murdering monsters.

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

yea I see Phigs point now

Zeppelin Insanity
Oct 28, 2009

Wahnsinn
Einfach
Wahnsinn

Dancer posted:

I am having an exchange with a normie in my personal life. Can someone who has a better grasp of the scale of these things tell me some guidelines for the following two questions? Are these ratios closer to 2:1 or 20:1?

- how much aid Ukraine got for free vs how much came via loans
- the "real value" of the aid they get vs the nominal value (since, like in the 61 billion mentioned above, "aid" will often come in the form of the US obtaining the stuff, handing it over, then promising this is totally 10 billion worth of stuff bro)

Edit: I see that some recent posts directly contradict the model I have suggested. Evidently I'm confused and might benefit even more from some answer. Obviously I know no one can give me a fixed number.

This isn't a direct answer to your question but I think can illustrate the scale of how things are priced:
-As of October 2023 the US is quoted as doing about $75 billion of aid. I can't find a more updated figure. This makes the US by far the biggest "donor".
-This includes a bunch of things, but as a quick reference, this includes 31 Abrams and apparently 45 T-72s
-Poland provided between 300-400 tanks (depending on source) and at least 14 jets and doesn't even appear on lists of big donors because they did it for free

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_military_aid_to_Ukraine_during_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War

Here's a list, though I don't think it's fully accurate.



lol

Zeppelin Insanity has issued a correction as of 14:47 on Apr 19, 2024

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

Sanlav posted:

That's just it, either these budget tzars who administrate our liberal state are so plugged into msnbc and spook fiction they think the Ukranians are whittling down Russia and just need to last

Or they're monsters. Hideous murdering monsters.

They may be monsters, but it isn't a strategy that is going to win. They simply arn't doing the damage they need to serious hem in Russian capabilities, if anything Russian capabilities are better than they were at the start of the war.

The Russians have their own long term strategy, but it simply cannot fit within the Beltway's framework so they have moved in the favor of fantasy.

Ardennes has issued a correction as of 15:05 on Apr 19, 2024

Flournival Dixon
Jan 29, 2024
Considering how much better off the average Russian is now than they have been at any time in the last thirty some years I feel like the worst thing that could happen to them is for this war to end. It's probably just a return to slow decline and neoliberalism if the American empire stops harassing them.

Buffer
May 6, 2007
I sometimes turn down sex and blowjobs from my girlfriend because I'm too busy posting in D&D. PS: She used my credit card to pay for this.
They've always wishcasted RE: adversarial motivations.

Can't take the russians seriously, can't figure out the houthis motivations likely match their stated ones, yada yada.

Dokapon Findom
Dec 5, 2022

They hated Futanari because His posts were shit.

RedSky posted:

Probably just the drm on the javelin makes it troublesome

Locked to fire in Region 2 only, most likely

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

Flournival Dixon posted:

Considering how much better off the average Russian is now than they have been at any time in the last thirty some years I feel like the worst thing that could happen to them is for this war to end. It's probably just a return to slow decline and neoliberalism if the American empire stops harassing them.

Admittedly, I think being tied to the Chinese economy and forced to focus more fully on the global south is a long term trend that isn't going to change, but yeah a return to the status quo may not be the best thing for average Russians.

I think the breaking point is just going to be the Ukrainian army at this point and how thin their ranks are, and it really doesn't seem moving to mass conscription is going to help. Perhaps the US can get some more PR attacks out of the latest bill, maybe shoot a few more Russian planes down, but the Ukrainian army has been smashed, and unless the West is willing to cannibalize their standing forces more fully, there isn't just a bunch of equipment to send them beyond maybe some Patriot batteries or whatever shells are being produced.

Buffer posted:

They've always wishcasted RE: adversarial motivations.

Can't take the russians seriously, can't figure out the houthis motivations likely match their stated ones, yada yada.

It got a lot worse with the Ukraine conflict. There is just nothing there.

Buffer
May 6, 2007
I sometimes turn down sex and blowjobs from my girlfriend because I'm too busy posting in D&D. PS: She used my credit card to pay for this.

Sanlav posted:

The CFR report is so ideological at this point. They did an accounting of the war in february that amounts to fantasy. They list all these appropriations of arms without counts or delivery involved. It's a sliver of a sliver of the overal package, only a portion got to Ukraine, all of it is nearly spent, and whats on the way in no way meets their needs. Yet they conclude we're doing the best, bang up job ever in supporting a war effort and a teensy bit more will slay Ruussia.

Mearshimer had a debate with Dobriansky last week that was just abysmal. Every talking point she made was this wishful thinking. She keeps countering every material weakness on the ground with "but we could send more and close that gap" ignoring the material realities abound.

There is no time, there is no productive capactiy, wishing and hoping time is long gone. If they need 5 million 155mm shells a year to fight Russia, either we deliver 5 million shells now or face the music. There's no tomorrow, but our official policy planning has no urgency. They are looking at it as a long term stalemate still.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rdtCyiKHtqE

Just from the opening it's so loving stark.

YES - because of XYZ material facts Ukraine can't win
NO - we must save face and not embolden putin

Flournival Dixon
Jan 29, 2024

Ardennes posted:

It got a lot worse with the Ukraine conflict. There is just nothing there.

It feels like they're so averse to admitting that they backed a nazi coup in ukraine that they're not even capable of admitting it internally for fear of it leaking, so they just can't manage the conflict in any way that acknowledges the cause and purpose of the conflict.

Truga
May 4, 2014
Lipstick Apathy

Flournival Dixon posted:

Considering how much better off the average Russian is now than they have been at any time in the last thirty some years I feel like the worst thing that could happen to them is for this war to end. It's probably just a return to slow decline and neoliberalism if the American empire stops harassing them.

on one hand, without the war russia could easily fare much better than with the war, but on the other hand i bet putin would immediately try rapprochement with the west in the worst neoliberal way possible, which is honestly just sad

Officer Sandvich
Feb 14, 2010
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/19/russia-weapons-production-ukraine-war/

Russia ramps up weapons production, using mass quantity to outgun Ukraine

quote:

Russia has ramped up military production by replenishing stocks of standard weapons and ammunition and probably can sustain its onslaught in Ukraine for at least the next two years, analysts say — a sobering assessment for Kyiv, which is short on weapons and soldiers and losing ground on the battlefield.

While the Kremlin is struggling to expand capacity and to develop modern arms that could improve its army’s battlefield performance, it has capitalized on its overwhelming advantage in numbers of soldiers, its ability to arm them with old but reliable weaponry and a willingness to endure heavy casualties.

By recalibrating its economy on a war footing, forcing existing facilities to work in overdrive to produce or refurbish older equipment, and buying parts from Iran, China and North Korea, Russia has made a surprising recovery from its early losses in Ukraine.

“Russia is not producing more of its modern fighting equipment,” said Nikolai Kulbaka, a Russian economist. “But it has been making a lot more of simpler working equipment, rifles, shells, mass weapons for mass soldiers.”

As Western military aid for Kyiv has slowed in recent months, including in the United States, Russian forces have retaken the initiative in Ukraine, where they can now fire artillery and deploy drones at a far higher rate than the Ukrainians.

[....]

The Soviet-era equipment, including missiles and guided aerial bombs, has compensated for Russia’s failure, at least so far, to produce and deploy new, advanced weapons such as the T-14 Armata tank that theoretically could rival the U.S.-made Abrams and German-made Leopards that the West has given Ukraine.

U.S. officials initially believed the war in Ukraine had seriously degraded Russia’s military. But Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top U.S. commander in Europe, testified in Congress this month that Moscow now had more soldiers than at the start of its invasion, and that its armed forces have “shown an accelerating ability to learn and adapt to battlefield challenges both tactically and technologically.”

Late last year, Russian President Vladimir Putin approved a record increase in military spending for 2024, planning to spend around $115 billion, nearly one-third of the country’s total annual budget and double the amount allocated for the military in 2021, the year before the invasion of Ukraine.

In recent months, top Russian officials, including Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, have claimed record numbers, reporting to Putin that the military-industrial complex has quadrupled production of armored vehicles, quintupled the supply of tanks and boosted manufacturing of drones and artillery shells by nearly 17 times.

[....]

In early 2023, Russian state media published reports citing unnamed military officials that the Armata had been tested on Ukrainian front lines, prompting speculation it would soon be supplied to units there.

But last month, the head of Russia’s defense manufacturer, Rostec, Sergei Chemezov, said the Armata will not be deployed in Ukraine because of its high cost.

“Of course, it is much superior to other tanks in terms of functionality, but it is too expensive,” Chemezov said, according to state media. “Therefore, the army is unlikely to use it now. It’s easier to buy T-90.”

Neither the manufacturer, Uralvagonzavod, nor officials have disclosed the cost of the tank, but in 2011, Russian experts estimated it to be around $7.9 million, compared with about $3.6 million for the T-90S modification.

[....]

“They didn’t have enough time to nail it down before the war,” he said. “And although it was logical to begin that level of modernization, because Soviet technology is very outdated, and the invasion showed this, a war requires a different approach.”

“You need reliable equipment steadily supplied to the front line, one that is well-known to the troops, has no childhood diseases and plenty of spare parts to fix it,” Aksenov continued.

[....]

“They’ve been converting old shopping centers into drone production facilities, where they were apparently able to scale up the production quite a bit,” said Fabian Hinz, a drone expert with IISS.

“Russia doesn’t have to become the most innovative army in the world,” Hinz added. “If they managed to get a few systems that work well, like the Lancet, and then they managed to just brutally force through production, that’s already dangerous enough.”

[....]

A recent report by the Kyiv School of Economics concluded: “Russia continues to be able to acquire large amounts of the inputs that it needs for its military production.” Imports of priority goods are down just 10 percent since sanctions were imposed, the report found.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

Truga posted:

on one hand, without the war russia could easily fare much better than with the war, but on the other hand i bet putin would immediately try rapprochement with the west in the worst neoliberal way possible, which is honestly just sad

How so? Growth is up, and unemployment is at historical lows, the ruble has been stable and the state isn't in significant debt. In addition, a bunch of moribund industries have been revitalized, and that along with soldier pay has been flowing into the regions.

The war has been a good thing for Russia, quite a bit in fact. Putin was willing to give quite a bit away except NATO membership, Crimea, and the Donbass. Those were the red lines, personally I think the peace terms he was giving was by far the best deal the Ukrainians would got gotten.

Truga
May 4, 2014
Lipstick Apathy
accidentally decoupling from neoliberal stupidity is what fixed russian economy, war was just the reason why that happened

e: which is why this so stupid. us/eu fixed the sliding russian economy by forcing the issue where kremlin thought their best way out is a goddamn war and had to reverse policy lmao

Truga has issued a correction as of 15:28 on Apr 19, 2024

VoicesCanBe
Jul 1, 2023

"Cóż, wygląda na to, że zostaliśmy łaskawie oszczędzeni trudu decydowania o własnym losie. Jakże uprzejme z ich strony, że przearanżowali Europę bez kłopotu naszego zdania!"

Buffer posted:

Just from the opening it's so loving stark.

YES - because of XYZ material facts Ukraine can't win
NO - we must save face and not embolden putin

I might watch it myself because I'm curious but I feel like I'll get frustrated early on lol

Even another liberal like Mearsheimer can run circles around these natsec dorks just by analyzing things as they currently stand.

Lostconfused
Oct 1, 2008

Losing the war in Ukraine isn't important, and everyone can wishcast all they want about it for all it matters.

The bigger issue is that economic warfare failed, and that's what western liberal governments and economies need to come to terms with.

VoicesCanBe
Jul 1, 2023

"Cóż, wygląda na to, że zostaliśmy łaskawie oszczędzeni trudu decydowania o własnym losie. Jakże uprzejme z ich strony, że przearanżowali Europę bez kłopotu naszego zdania!"

Buffer posted:

They've always wishcasted RE: adversarial motivations.

Can't take the russians seriously, can't figure out the houthis motivations likely match their stated ones, yada yada.

This is an important point, and it applies to every US adversary.

No attempt is ever made to seriously discern the motivations of these countries. Because usually their motivations tend to be fairly reasonable aka some variation of "please leave us alone"

This ties into how the West no longer believes in diplomacy and has no ability to conduct it even if they did.

Dixon Chisholm
Jan 2, 2020

Homeless Friend posted:

we're about to teach this SOB why the victims of communism list is so long

lmfao

crepeface
Nov 5, 2004

r*p*f*c*

Dancer posted:

I am having an exchange with a normie in my personal life. Can someone who has a better grasp of the scale of these things tell me some guidelines for the following two questions? Are these ratios closer to 2:1 or 20:1?

- how much aid Ukraine got for free vs how much came via loans
- the "real value" of the aid they get vs the nominal value (since, like in the 61 billion mentioned above, "aid" will often come in the form of the US obtaining the stuff, handing it over, then promising this is totally 10 billion worth of stuff bro)

Edit: I see that some recent posts directly contradict the model I have suggested. Evidently I'm confused and might benefit even more from some answer. Obviously I know no one can give me a fixed number.

it's all over the place and basically impossible to figure out without going through every thing with a fine-toothed comb.

like there will be some bill that's ostensibly $10 billion for ukraine aid and it turns out they were being sent $5 billion worth of weapons and the other $5 billion was to replenish US stocks.

there's also a bunch of "loans" that are never going to be paid back in full (if at all) or restructured (that will force them to privatise even more of their poo poo that western oligarchs can buy up).

as usual, it's a just a money laundering through MIC and vulture capital firms.

VoicesCanBe
Jul 1, 2023

"Cóż, wygląda na to, że zostaliśmy łaskawie oszczędzeni trudu decydowania o własnym losie. Jakże uprzejme z ich strony, że przearanżowali Europę bez kłopotu naszego zdania!"

Lostconfused posted:

Losing the war in Ukraine isn't important, and everyone can wishcast all they want about it for all it matters.

The bigger issue is that economic warfare failed, and that's what western liberal governments and economies need to come to terms with.



Russia not only surviving the "mother of all sanctions" regime but outright shrugging it off is the true mark of the end of US unipolarity.

DaysBefore
Jan 24, 2019


Ardennes posted:

How so? Growth is up, and unemployment is at historical lows, the ruble has been stable and the state isn't in significant debt. In addition, a bunch of moribund industries have been revitalized, and that along with soldier pay has been flowing into the regions.

The war has been a good thing for Russia, quite a bit in fact. Putin was willing to give quite a bit away except NATO membership, Crimea, and the Donbass. Those were the red lines, personally I think the peace terms he was giving was by far the best deal the Ukrainians would got gotten.

The Foreign Affairs article says that the Russians were even willing to negotiate around Crimea in their peace overtures, which they had never signalled before. I don't doubt the negotiations would have been 'we're keeping it because the people want us there' lol but still. The opportunity thrown away to satisfy the rabid ghouls of NATO is insane

DaysBefore
Jan 24, 2019


Homeless Friend posted:

we're about to teach this SOB why the victims of communism list is so long

crepeface
Nov 5, 2004

r*p*f*c*

Truga posted:

on one hand, without the war russia could easily fare much better than with the war, but on the other hand i bet putin would immediately try rapprochement with the west in the worst neoliberal way possible, which is honestly just sad

depends if they're ready to embrace xi jinping thought.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

DaysBefore posted:

The Foreign Affairs article says that the Russians were even willing to negotiate around Crimea in their peace overtures, which they had never signalled before. I don't doubt the negotiations would have been 'we're keeping it because the people want us there' lol but still. The opportunity thrown away to satisfy the rabid ghouls of NATO is insane

They may have been willing to allow of a referendum, it is just they almost certainly would win it. That said, if you were Crimean, you would wander what the hell is Moscow doing.

Granted, the loss isn't just the weakness of sanctions, but frankly that they couldn't control Russia specifically, and if anything, Russia, which was suppose to be "on the way out" is now back to be an expanding power.

Perhaps it would be manageable again to deal with them...it is just that China is sitting there, and now they are loving around with Iran. They gambled a lot on Ukraine and is just was a loss, and now they are stuck "showing their commit to their allies" because of a situation they created themselves.

Ardennes has issued a correction as of 15:37 on Apr 19, 2024

KomradeX
Oct 29, 2011

Orange Devil posted:

Could be much worse. Could be American.

Means more if the Dutch weren't ruled by America

Sanlav
Feb 10, 2020

We'll Meet Again

Buffer posted:

Just from the opening it's so loving stark.

YES - because of XYZ material facts Ukraine can't win
NO - we must save face and not embolden putin

More than half of their analysis, was framing the dollar amount of the contributions against various state/federal/national budgets. Abstract yourself away from reality for a moment, and just pat yourself on the back. This is epic folks!

KomradeX
Oct 29, 2011

Ardennes posted:

ATGMs are a big issue, it is just particularly the Javelin actually didn't perform as expected. The big issue for the Russians was tripod mounted Ukrainian-made ATGMs which had much heavier or tandem warheads.

The Javelin when attempting a top attack mode usually just hit the top of the sides of the turret, and it generally has a small warhead for an ATGM otherwise. It isn't ideal. The NLAW is even smaller. They could theoretically still do damage close range if targeting a specific point on a tank, but they also have a minimum distance as well (there are shots of frustrated Ukrainian soldiers fighting with it).

Hamas usually when they confront Israeli tanks they hit them with pretty huge HE/thermobartic warheads on their RPGs, and they come in extreme close range to target a specific point on the tank.

Drones are generally a much bigger issue.

Wasn't the idea that the Javelin wouldn't need a larger warhead because it was going to attack the thinner top armor?

Buffer
May 6, 2007
I sometimes turn down sex and blowjobs from my girlfriend because I'm too busy posting in D&D. PS: She used my credit card to pay for this.

VoicesCanBe posted:

I might watch it myself because I'm curious but I feel like I'll get frustrated early on lol

Even another liberal like Mearsheimer can run circles around these natsec dorks just by analyzing things as they currently stand.

It's making me angry in a unique way.

These women are terrible - they have literally nothing but atrocity porn and western chauvinism. Then a bunch of ghouls laugh.

VoicesCanBe posted:

This is an important point, and it applies to every US adversary.

No attempt is ever made to seriously discern the motivations of these countries. Because usually their motivations tend to be fairly reasonable aka some variation of "please leave us alone"

This ties into how the West no longer believes in diplomacy and has no ability to conduct it even if they did.

We don't care what their motivations are, fundamentally, because they must accept our control.

crepeface
Nov 5, 2004

r*p*f*c*

suck my woke dick posted:

more like countries aren't morally pure people and most of them are terrible

don't handwave away US intervention as standard practice and gently caress off dipshit :gb2gbs:

Sanlav
Feb 10, 2020

We'll Meet Again
I wish Mearshimer wasn't just mad we're gonna lose. He has all the info to be a radical, but he sees the American project as worthwhile in the end. If people like him were still in nat sec they'd prolly of pulled this garbage off...

VoicesCanBe
Jul 1, 2023

"Cóż, wygląda na to, że zostaliśmy łaskawie oszczędzeni trudu decydowania o własnym losie. Jakże uprzejme z ich strony, że przearanżowali Europę bez kłopotu naszego zdania!"

Sanlav posted:

I wish Mearshimer wasn't just mad we're gonna lose. He has all the info to be a radical, but he sees the American project as worthwhile in the end. If people like him were still in nat sec they'd prolly of pulled this garbage off...

If people like him were the actual decision makers then they would've taken the April 2022 deal and sold it as a win for NATO (and they wouldn't be entirely wrong)

Then again, if people like him were the actual decision makers then the invasion probably never happens to begin with

Truga
May 4, 2014
Lipstick Apathy
yeah mearsheimer has been yelling at everyone for like 10 years now that going after russia is stupid not because he thinks russia is good but because he's a big ol' anti-communist and thinks russia would be a great ally/asset in a (cold) war against china

Buffer
May 6, 2007
I sometimes turn down sex and blowjobs from my girlfriend because I'm too busy posting in D&D. PS: She used my credit card to pay for this.
I don't think there's anyone in that "community" who would wind up on TV/a debate stage that I like as a human being but at least the realists haven't been trying to melt my brain's connection to physical reality vis a vis this specific conflict. (because they want to do it about china, but whatever, that's a different thread)

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

KomradeX posted:

Wasn't the idea that the Javelin wouldn't need a larger warhead because it was going to attack the thinner top armor?

The problem is they ended up attacking not the top of the turret directly, but the top of the sides, which usually still had thick armor and ERA plating.

Sanlav
Feb 10, 2020

We'll Meet Again

Officer Sandvich posted:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/19/russia-weapons-production-ukraine-war/

Russia ramps up weapons production, using mass quantity to outgun Ukraine

Putin plays hoi4.

Sanlav
Feb 10, 2020

We'll Meet Again

VoicesCanBe posted:

If people like him were the actual decision makers then they would've taken the April 2022 deal and sold it as a win for NATO (and they wouldn't be entirely wrong)

Then again, if people like him were the actual decision makers then the invasion probably never happens to begin with

Yeh, but he'd still be strategizing daily on how to eff Russia and not get caught pants down til the end of time.

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DJJIB-DJDCT
Feb 1, 2024

Buffer posted:

These women are terrible - don't care what their motivations are, they must accept our control.

See? Throw in some wrestling with your pals, and this is how you build an empire.

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