Feinberg Forecast: Scott’s Latest Read of the Oscar Race

PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter’s executive editor of awards Scott Feinberg, reflects his best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these standings by drawing upon consultations with voters and industry insiders, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars and the history of the Oscars ceremony itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.

* * *

*BEST PICTURE*

Frontrunners
The Fabelmans (Universal)
Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount)
The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight)
Women Talking (UAR)
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Disney)
Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)
She Said (Universal)
Tár (Focus)
Elvis (Warner Bros.)
The Woman King (Sony)

Major Threats
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix)
Triangle of Sadness (Neon)
Till (UAR)
Armageddon Time (Focus)
Living (Sony Classics)
The Whale (A24)

Possibilities
Good Night Oppy (Amazon)
Nope (Universal)
Thirteen Lives (Amazon)
Decision to Leave (MUBI)
Causeway (Apple)
Close (A24)
RRR (Variance)

Still to See or Under Embargo
Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century/Disney)
Babylon (Paramount)
Emancipation (Apple)
A Man Called Otto (Sony)

*BEST DIRECTOR*

Frontrunners
Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans) — podcast
Sarah Polley (Women Talking)
Todd Field (Tár)
Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave)
Gina Prince-Bythewood (The Woman King)

Major Threats
Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Daniel Scheinert & Daniel Kwan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Ryan Coogler (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Lukas Dhont (Close)
Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness)
Maria Schrader (She Said)
Joseph Kosinski (Top Gun: Maverick)
Rian Johnson (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery)

Possibilities
Baz Luhrmann (Elvis)
Ron Howard (Thirteen Lives) — podcast
James Gray (Armageddon Time)
Chinonye Chukwu (Till)
Darren Aronofsky (The Whale)
Sam Mendes (Empire of Light)
Jordan Peele (Nope) — podcast
Luca Guadagnino (Bones and All)

Still to See or Under Embargo
James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water)
Damien Chazelle (Babylon) — podcast
Marc Forster (A Man Called Otto)
Antoine Fuqua (Emancipation)

*BEST ACTOR*

Frontrunners
Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
Austin Butler (Elvis)
Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick)
Gabriel LaBelle (The Fabelmans)

Major Threats
Adam Sandler (Hustle) — podcast
Bill Nighy (Living)
Jeremy Pope (The Inspection)
Hugh Jackman (The Son) — podcast
Mark Wahlberg (Father Stu)

Possibilities
Paul Mescal (Aftersun)
Song Kang-ho (Broker)
Park Hae-il (Decision to Leave)
Jonathan Majors (Devotion)

Still to See or Under Embargo
Christian Bale (The Pale Blue Eye)
Diego Calva (Babylon)
Tom Hanks (A Man Called Otto) — podcast 1 and 2
Will Smith (Emancipation) — podcast
Sam Worthington (Avatar: The Way of Water)

*BEST ACTRESS*

Frontrunners
Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once) — podcast
Cate Blanchett (Tár) — podcast
Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)
Danielle Deadwyler (Till)
Viola Davis (The Woman King)

Major Threats
Olivia Colman (Empire of Light)
Vicky Krieps (Corsage)
Rooney Mara (Women Talking)
Jennifer Lawrence (Causeway) — podcast
Zoe Kazan (She Said)
Letitia Wright (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Emma Thompson (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande)
Ana de Armas (Blonde)

Possibilities
Jessica Chastain (The Good Nurse) — podcast
Léa Seydoux (One Fine Morning)
Emma Corrin (Lady Chatterley’s Lover)
Tang Wei (Decision to Leave)
Keke Palmer (Nope)
Zar Amir Ebrahimi (Holy Spider)
Mia Goth (Pearl)

Still to See or Under Embargo
Anna Diop (Nanny)
Margot Robbie (Babylon) — podcast
Sigourney Weaver (Avatar: The Way of Water)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR*

Frontrunners
Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Paul Dano (The Fabelmans)
Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans)
Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway)

Major Threats
Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse) — podcast
Jeremy Strong (Armageddon Time) — podcast
Ben Whishaw (Women Talking)
Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Micheal Ward (Empire of Light)

Possibilities
Andre Braugher (She Said)
Anthony Hopkins (Armageddon Time) — podcast
Woody Harrelson (Triangle of Sadness)
Bokeem Woodbine (The Inspection)

Still to See or Under Embargo
Ben Foster (Emancipation)
Harry Melling (The Pale Blue Eye)
Brad Pitt (Babylon)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS*

Frontrunners
Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Dolly de Leon (Triangle of Sadness)
Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Claire Foy (Women Talking) — podcast
Jessie Buckley (Women Talking)

Major Threats
Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Carey Mulligan (She Said) — podcast
Hong Chau (The Whale)
Janelle Monáe (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery) — podcast
Nina Hoss (Tár)
Thuso Mbedu (The Woman King)

Possibilities
Gabrielle Union (The Inspection)
Anne Hathaway (Armageddon Time)
Laura Dern (The Son)
Jennifer Ehle (She Said)
Samantha Morton (She Said)
Patricia Clarkson (She Said) — podcast
Frankie Corio (Aftersun)

Still to See or Under Embargo
Charmaine Bingwa (Emancipation)
Michelle Monaghan (Nanny)
Jean Smart (Babylon)

*BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY*

Frontrunners
Women Talking (Sarah Polley)
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Rian Johnson)
She Said (Rebecca Lenkiewicz)
The Whale (Samuel D. Hunter)
White Noise (Noah Baumbach)

Major Threats
Lady Chatterley’s Lover (David Magee)
The Good Nurse (Krysty Wilson-Cairns)
Living (Kazuo Ishiguro)
The Wonder (Alice Birch & Sebastián Lelio)

Possibilities
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Joe Robert Cole & Ryan Coogler)
Top Gun: Maverick (Peter Craig, Ehren Kruger, Justin Marks, Christopher McQuarrie & Eric Warren Singer)
Bones and All (David Kajganich)
The Son (Christopher Hampton)

Still to See or Under Embargo
Avatar: The Way of Water (James Cameron, Rick Jaffa & Amanda Silver)

*BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY*

Frontrunners
Everything Everywhere All at Once (Daniel Scheinert & Daniel Kwan)
The Fabelmans (Tony Kushner & Steven Spielberg) — podcast (Spielberg)
The Banshees of Inisherin (Martin McDonagh)
The Woman King (Dana Stevens)
Triangle of Sadness (Ruben Östlund)

Major Threats
Tár (Todd Field)
Nope (Jordan Peele) — podcast
Armageddon Time (James Gray)
Decision to Leave (Park Chan-wook & Seo-kyeong Jeong)
Close (Lukas Dhont & Angelo Tijssens)
Till (Keith Beauchamp, Chinonye Chukwu & Michael Reilly)

Possibilities
Aftersun (Charlotte Wells)
Cha Cha Real Smooth (Cooper Raiff)
Elvis (Jeremy Doner, Baz Luhrmann, Sam Bromell & Craig Pearce)
Broker (Hirokazu Koreeda)
Empire of Light (Sam Mendes)
The Inspection (Elegance Bratton)

Still to See or Under Embargo
Babylon (Damien Chazelle) — podcast
Emancipation (William N. Collage)
Nanny (Nikyatu Jusu)

*BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE*

Frontrunners
Decision to Leave (South Korea)
Close (Belgium)
All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
Corsage (Austria)
Holy Spider (Denmark)

Major Threats
Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
The Quiet Girl (Ireland)
EO (Poland)
Saint Omer (France)
Bardo (Mexico)

Still to See or Under Embargo
Alcarràs (Spain)
Cinema Sabaya (Israel)
Eternal Spring (Canada)
Girl Picture (Finland)
Joyland (Pakistan)
Klondike (Ukraine)
Narcosis (Netherlands)
Nostalgia (Italy)
Plan 75 (Japan)
War Sailor (Norway)

*BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE*

Frontrunners
Good Night Oppy (Amazon)
Navalny (Warner Bros./CNN)
Retrograde (Nat Geo)
Last Flight Home (MTV)
Fire of Love (Nat Geo/Neon)

Rest of Shortlist
All That Breathes (HBO)
Descendant (Netflix)
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (Neon)
Moonage Daydream (Neon)
Bad Axe (IFC)
Sr. (Netflix)
The Return of Tanya Tucker (Sony Classics)
The Territory (Nat Geo)
Gabby Giffords Won’t Back Down (Briarcliff/CNN)
Turn Every Page (Sony Classics)

Possibilities
The Janes (HBO)
Freedom on Fire (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, a Journey, a Song (Sony Classics)
Icarus: The Aftermath (still seeking U.S. distribution)
In Her Hands (Netflix)
Civil (Netflix)
Bitterbrush (Magnolia)
Salvatore: Shoemaker of Dreams (Sony Classics)

Still to See or Under Embargo
2nd Chance (Showtime)
Aftershock (Hulu)
Art & Krimes (MTV)
The Corridors of Power (Showtime)
Eternal Spring (self-distributing)
The Exiles (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Hidden Letters (Cargo)
I Didn’t See You There (POV)
If These Walls Could Sing (Disney)
Is That Black Enough for You?!? (Netflix)
Louis Armstrong’s Black and Blues (Apple)
Mickey: The Story of a Mouse (Disney)
Mija (Disney)
Nothing Compares (Showtime)
The Pez Outlaw (Gravitas)
The Princess (HBO)
Punch 9 for Harold Washington (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Riotsville, U.S.A. (Magnolia)
Selena Gomez: My Mind and Me (Apple)
Sidney (Apple)
The Voice of Dust and Ash (still seeking U.S. distribution)
The Volcano: Rescue From Whakaari (Netflix)
We Are Art: Through the Eyes of Annalaura (Cinedigm)
Wildcat (Amazon)

*BEST ORIGINAL SONG*

Frontrunners
“Lift Me Up” (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) — Rihanna
“Hold My Hand” (Top Gun: Maverick) — Lady Gaga
“New Body Rhumba” (White Noise) — James Murphy
“Vegas” (Elvis) — Doja Cat
“Naatu Naatu” (RRR) — Kala Bhairava, M. M. Keeravani & Rahul Sipligunj

Major Threats (rest of shortlist)
“This Is a Life” (Everything Everywhere All at Once) — David Byrne, Ryan Lott & Mitski
“Nobody Like U” (Turning Red) — Billie Eilish & Finneas
“Time” (Amsterdam) — Aubrey ‘Drake’ Graham, Giveon Evans, Daniel Pemberton & Jahaan Akil Sweet
“Carolina” (Where the Crawdads Sing) — Taylor Swift
“Stand Up” (Till) — D’Mile & Jazmine Sullivan
“My Mind and Me” (Selena Gomez: My Mind and Me) — Selena Gomez
“(You Made It Feel Like) Home” (Bones and All) — Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross
“Not Alone” (Devotion) — Joe Jonas
“Ciao Papa” (Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio) — Guillermo del Toro & Roeban Katz

Possibilities
“I Ain’t Worried” (Top Gun: Maverick) — One Republic
“Heartbeat” (Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile) — Shawn Mendes
“At the Automat” (The Automat) — Mel Brooks
“Applause” (Tell It Like a Woman) — Diane Warren
“On My Way” (Marry Me) — Ivy Adara, Leroy Clampitt & Michael Pollack
“Dust & Ash” (The Voice of Dust and Ash) — J. Ralph
“Do A Little Good” (Spirited) — Benj Pasek & Justin Paul
“Good Afternoon” (Spirited) — Benj Pasek, Khiyon Hursey, Sukari Jones, Justin Paul & Mark Sonnenblick
“A Sky Like I’ve Never Seen” (Wildcat) — Robin Pecknold
“Lift Your Wings” (My Father’s Dragon) — Frank Danna, Jeff Danna, Mychael Danna, Meg LeFauve & Nora Twomey
“We Are Art” (We Are Art: Through the Eyes of Annalaura) — Annalaura di Luggo & Paky Di Maio