Simulation of ridesourcing using agent-based demand and supply regional models : potential market demand for first-mile transit travel and reduction in vehicle miles traveled in the San Francisco Bay Area.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-01-01

In this study, we use existing modeling tools and data from the San Francisco Bay Area : (California) to understand the potential market demand for a first mile transit access service : and possible reductions in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) (a...

Microsimulation of household and firm behaviors : coupled models of land use and travel demand in Austin, Texas

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-12-01

Households and firms are key drivers of urban growth, yet models for forecasting travel demand often : ignore their dynamic evolution and several key decision processes. An understanding of household and : firm behavior over time is critical in antic...

A unifying framework of the demand for transnational medical travel.

PubMed

Osterle, August; Johnson, Tricia; Delgado, Jose

2013-01-01

Transnational medical travel has gained attention recently as a strategy for patients to obtain care that is higher quality, costs less, or offers improved access relative to care provided within their home countries. This article examines institutional environments in the European Union and United States that influence transnational medical travel, describes the conceptual model of demand for medical travel, and illustrates individual dimensions in the conceptual model of medical travel using a series of case studies. The conceptual model of medical travel is predicated on Andersen's behavioral model of health services. Transnational medical travel is a heterogeneous phenomenon that is influenced by a number of patient-related factors and by the institutional environment in which the patient resides. While cost, access, and quality are commonly cited factors that influence a patient's decision regarding where to seek care, multiple factors may simultaneously influence the decision about the destination for care, including culture, social factors, and the institutional environment. The conceptual framework addresses the patient-related factors that influence where a patient seeks care. This framework can help researchers and regulatory bodies to evaluate the opportunities and the risks of transnational medical travel and help providers and governments to develop international patient programs.

Effect of fare and travel time on the demand for domestic air transportation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eriksen, S. E.; Liu, E. W.

1979-01-01

An econometric travel demand model was presented. The model was used for analyzing long haul domestic passenger markets in the United States. The results showed the sensitivities of demand to changes in fares and speed reflecting technology through more efficient aircraft designs.

Selection and evaluation of travel demand management measures

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-01-01

Travel demand management (TDM) measures are designed to alter the attractiveness of competing travel modes to prompt individuals to carpool or use transit instead of driving alone. Determining the best set of measures for a given area and estimating ...

Roadway network productivity assessment : system-wide analysis under variant travel demand

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-11-01

The analysis documented in this report examines the hypothesis that the system-wide productivity of a metropolitan freeway system in peak periods is higher in moderate travel demand conditions than in excessive travel demand conditions. The approach ...

NAS Demand Predictions, Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM) Compared with Other Forecasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Viken, Jeff; Dollyhigh, Samuel; Smith, Jeremy; Trani, Antonio; Baik, Hojong; Hinze, Nicholas; Ashiabor, Senanu

2006-01-01

The current work incorporates the Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM) to predict the future demand for airline travel. TSAM is a multi-mode, national model that predicts the demand for all long distance travel at a county level based upon population and demographics. The model conducts a mode choice analysis to compute the demand for commercial airline travel based upon the traveler s purpose of the trip, value of time, cost and time of the trip,. The county demand for airline travel is then aggregated (or distributed) to the airport level, and the enplanement demand at commercial airports is modeled. With the growth in flight demand, and utilizing current airline flight schedules, the Fratar algorithm is used to develop future flight schedules in the NAS. The projected flights can then be flown through air transportation simulators to quantify the ability of the NAS to meet future demand. A major strength of the TSAM analysis is that scenario planning can be conducted to quantify capacity requirements at individual airports, based upon different future scenarios. Different demographic scenarios can be analyzed to model the demand sensitivity to them. Also, it is fairly well know, but not well modeled at the airport level, that the demand for travel is highly dependent on the cost of travel, or the fare yield of the airline industry. The FAA projects the fare yield (in constant year dollars) to keep decreasing into the future. The magnitude and/or direction of these projections can be suspect in light of the general lack of airline profits and the large rises in airline fuel cost. Also, changes in travel time and convenience have an influence on the demand for air travel, especially for business travel. Future planners cannot easily conduct sensitivity studies of future demand with the FAA TAF data, nor with the Boeing or Airbus projections. In TSAM many factors can be parameterized and various demand sensitivities can be predicted for future travel. These

Development of speed models for improving travel forecasting and highway performance evaluation : [technical summary].

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-12-01

Travel forecasting models predict travel demand based on the present transportation system and its use. Transportation modelers must develop, validate, and calibrate models to ensure that predicted travel demand is as close to reality as possible. Mo...

Mental maps and travel behaviour: meanings and models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hannes, Els; Kusumastuti, Diana; Espinosa, Maikel León; Janssens, Davy; Vanhoof, Koen; Wets, Geert

2012-04-01

In this paper, the " mental map" concept is positioned with regard to individual travel behaviour to start with. Based on Ogden and Richards' triangle of meaning (The meaning of meaning: a study of the influence of language upon thought and of the science of symbolism. International library of psychology, philosophy and scientific method. Routledge and Kegan Paul, London, 1966) distinct thoughts, referents and symbols originating from different scientific disciplines are identified and explained in order to clear up the notion's fuzziness. Next, the use of this concept in two major areas of research relevant to travel demand modelling is indicated and discussed in detail: spatial cognition and decision-making. The relevance of these constructs to understand and model individual travel behaviour is explained and current research efforts to implement these concepts in travel demand models are addressed. Furthermore, these mental map notions are specified in two types of computational models, i.e. a Bayesian Inference Network (BIN) and a Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM). Both models are explained, and a numerical and a real-life example are provided. Both approaches yield a detailed quantitative representation of the mental map of decision-making problems in travel behaviour.

Responding to traveling patients' seasonal demand for health care services.

PubMed

Al-Haque, Shahed; Ceyhan, Mehmet Erkan; Chan, Stephanie H; Nightingale, Deborah J

2015-01-01

The Veterans Health Administration (VHA) provides care to over 8 million Veterans and operates over 1,700 sites of care across 21 regional networks in the United States. Health care providers within VHA report large seasonal variation in the demand for services, especially in the southern United States because of arrival of "snowbirds" during the winter. Because resource allocation activities are primarily carried out through an annual budgeting process, the seasonal load imposed by "traveling Veterans"-Veterans that seek care at VHA sites outside of their home network-make providing high-quality services more challenging. This work constitutes the first major effort within VHA to understand the impact of traveling Veterans. We discovered strong seasonal fluctuations in demand at a clinic located in the southeastern United States and developed a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model to help the clinic forecast demand for its services with significantly less error than historical averaging. Monte Carlo simulation of the clinic revealed that physicians are overutilized, suggesting the need to re-evaluate how the clinic is currently staffed. More broadly, this study demonstrates how operations management methods can assist operational decision making at other clinics and medical centers both within and outside VHA. Reprint & Copyright © 2015 Association of Military Surgeons of the U.S.

Modeling hurricane evacuation traffic : development of a time-dependent hurricane evacuation demand model.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-04-01

The objective of this research is to develop alternative time-dependent travel demand models of hurricane evacuation travel and to compare the performance of these models with each other and with the state-of-the-practice models in current use. Speci...

Use of travel cost models in planning: A case study

Treesearch

Allan Marsinko; William T. Zawacki; J. Michael Bowker

2002-01-01

This article examines the use of the travel cost, method in tourism-related decision making in the area of nonconsumptive wildlife-associated recreation. A travel cost model of nonconsumptive wildlife-associated recreation, developed by Zawacki, Maninko, and Bowker, is used as a case study for this analysis. The travel cost model estimates the demand for the activity...

Future travel demand and its implications for transportation infrastructure investments in the Texas Triangle.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-03-01

This study takes a megaregion approach to project future travel demand and choice of transport : modes in the Texas Triangle, which is encompassed by four major metropolitan areas, Dallas-Fort : Worth, Houston, San Antonio, and Austin. The model was ...

Integrating Land Use and Socioeconomic Factors into Scenario-Based Travel Demand and Carbon Emission Impact Study

EPA Science Inventory

Urban sprawl continues since the last century, leading to a rapid increase in automobile ownership and vehicle travel demand, while resulting in more traffic congestion and automobile emissions. Land use, serving as a source of travel demand, can significantly impact travel behav...

Activity-Based Travel Demand Modeling for Metropolitan Areas in Texas: Model Components and Mathematical Formulations

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-09-01

The goal of this project is to comprehensively model the activity-travel patterns of workers as well as non-workers in a household. The activity-travel system will take as input various land use, socio-demographic, activity system, and transportation...

How Travel Demand Affects Detection of Non-Recurrent Traffic Congestion on Urban Road Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anbaroglu, B.; Heydecker, B.; Cheng, T.

2016-06-01

Occurrence of non-recurrent traffic congestion hinders the economic activity of a city, as travellers could miss appointments or be late for work or important meetings. Similarly, for shippers, unexpected delays may disrupt just-in-time delivery and manufacturing processes, which could lose them payment. Consequently, research on non-recurrent congestion detection on urban road networks has recently gained attention. By analysing large amounts of traffic data collected on a daily basis, traffic operation centres can improve their methods to detect non-recurrent congestion rapidly and then revise their existing plans to mitigate its effects. Space-time clusters of high link journey time estimates correspond to non-recurrent congestion events. Existing research, however, has not considered the effect of travel demand on the effectiveness of non-recurrent congestion detection methods. Therefore, this paper investigates how travel demand affects detection of non-recurrent traffic congestion detection on urban road networks. Travel demand has been classified into three categories as low, normal and high. The experiments are carried out on London's urban road network, and the results demonstrate the necessity to adjust the relative importance of the component evaluation criteria depending on the travel demand level.

A Contingent Trip Model for Estimating Rail-trail Demand

Treesearch

Carter J. Betz; John C. Bergstrom; J. Michael Bowker

2003-01-01

The authors develop a contingent trip model to estimate the recreation demand for and value of a potential rail-trail site in north-east Georgia. The contingent trip model is an alternative to travel cost modelling useful for ex ante evaluation of proposed recreation resources or management alternatives. The authors estimate the empirical demand for trips using a...

Community structure in traffic zones based on travel demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Li; Ling, Ximan; He, Kun; Tan, Qian

2016-09-01

Large structure in complex networks can be studied by dividing it into communities or modules. Urban traffic system is one of the most critical infrastructures. It can be abstracted into a complex network composed of tightly connected groups. Here, we analyze community structure in urban traffic zones based on the community detection method in network science. Spectral algorithm using the eigenvectors of matrices is employed. Our empirical results indicate that the traffic communities are variant with the travel demand distribution, since in the morning the majority of the passengers are traveling from home to work and in the evening they are traveling a contrary direction. Meanwhile, the origin-destination pairs with large number of trips play a significant role in urban traffic network's community division. The layout of traffic community in a city also depends on the residents' trajectories.

POLARIS: Agent-based modeling framework development and implementation for integrated travel demand and network and operations simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Auld, Joshua; Hope, Michael; Ley, Hubert

This paper discusses the development of an agent-based modelling software development kit, and the implementation and validation of a model using it that integrates dynamic simulation of travel demand, network supply and network operations. A description is given of the core utilities in the kit: a parallel discrete event engine, interprocess exchange engine, and memory allocator, as well as a number of ancillary utilities: visualization library, database IO library, and scenario manager. The overall framework emphasizes the design goals of: generality, code agility, and high performance. This framework allows the modeling of several aspects of transportation system that are typicallymore » done with separate stand-alone software applications, in a high-performance and extensible manner. The issue of integrating such models as dynamic traffic assignment and disaggregate demand models has been a long standing issue for transportation modelers. The integrated approach shows a possible way to resolve this difficulty. The simulation model built from the POLARIS framework is a single, shared-memory process for handling all aspects of the integrated urban simulation. The resulting gains in computational efficiency and performance allow planning models to be extended to include previously separate aspects of the urban system, enhancing the utility of such models from the planning perspective. Initial tests with case studies involving traffic management center impacts on various network events such as accidents, congestion and weather events, show the potential of the system.« less

The Impact of Bicycle Corridors on Travel Demand in Utah

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-03-01

The purpose of this document is to report the results of the study that reviewed the impact of bicycle corridors on travel demand throughout the state of Utah. To meet the objectives of the study, bicycle rate data were collected and evaluated at num...

Bicycle and pedestrian travel demand forecasting : summary of data collection activities

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-09-01

This report summarizes data collection activities performed at eight different sites in Texas urban areas. The data : were collected to help develop and test bicycle and pedestrian travel demand forecasting techniques. The : research team collected d...

Using Count Data and Ordered Models in National Forest Recreation Demand Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simões, Paula; Barata, Eduardo; Cruz, Luis

2013-11-01

This research addresses the need to improve our knowledge on the demand for national forests for recreation and offers an in-depth data analysis supported by the complementary use of count data and ordered models. From a policy-making perspective, while count data models enable the estimation of monetary welfare measures, ordered models allow for the wider use of the database and provide a more flexible analysis of data. The main purpose of this article is to analyse the individual forest recreation demand and to derive a measure of its current use value. To allow a more complete analysis of the forest recreation demand structure the econometric approach supplements the use of count data models with ordered category models using data obtained by means of an on-site survey in the Bussaco National Forest (Portugal). Overall, both models reveal that travel cost and substitute prices are important explanatory variables, visits are a normal good and demographic variables seem to have no influence on demand. In particular, estimated price and income elasticities of demand are quite low. Accordingly, it is possible to argue that travel cost (price) in isolation may be expected to have a low impact on visitation levels.

Quantifying recreation use values from removing dams and restoring free-flowing rivers: A contingent behavior travel cost demand model for the Lower Snake River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loomis, John

2002-06-01

A travel cost demand model that uses intended trips if dams are removed and the river restored is presented as a tool for evaluating the potential recreation benefits in this counterfactual but increasingly policy relevant analysis of dam removal. The model is applied to the Lower Snake River in Washington using data from mail surveys of households in the Pacific Northwest region. Five years after dam removal, about 1.5 million visitor days are estimated, with this number growing to 2.5 million annually during years 20-100. Using the travel cost method model estimate of the value of river recreation, if the four dams are removed and the 225 km river is restored, the annualized benefits at a 6.875% discount rate would be $310 million. This gain in river recreation exceeds the loss of reservoir recreation but is about $60 million less than the total costs of the dam removal alternative. The analysis suggests this extension of the standard travel cost method may be suitable for evaluating the gain in river recreation associated with restoration of river systems from dam removal or associated with dam relicensing conditions.

Evaluating effects of travel demand management in a medium-sized urban area : the study of I-40 Greensboro-Winston-Salem corridor

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-08-01

Travel demand management (TDM) is a set of procedures that have been shown to alleviate unlimited use of automobiles. Demand is managed by limiting highway capacity to meet demand to travel by car and providing incentives or disincentives to increase...

Regional travel survey

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1992-04-01

Mid-America Regional Council, the designated Metropolitan Planning Organization for the Kansas City Metropolitan Area, performed a Small Sample Travel Survey for the Kansas City region to collect data to update the MARC travel demand models. The resu...

An examination of sources of sensitivity of consumer surplus estimates in travel cost models.

PubMed

Blaine, Thomas W; Lichtkoppler, Frank R; Bader, Timothy J; Hartman, Travis J; Lucente, Joseph E

2015-03-15

We examine sensitivity of estimates of recreation demand using the Travel Cost Method (TCM) to four factors. Three of the four have been routinely and widely discussed in the TCM literature: a) Poisson verses negative binomial regression; b) application of Englin correction to account for endogenous stratification; c) truncation of the data set to eliminate outliers. A fourth issue we address has not been widely modeled: the potential effect on recreation demand of the interaction between income and travel cost. We provide a straightforward comparison of all four factors, analyzing the impact of each on regression parameters and consumer surplus estimates. Truncation has a modest effect on estimates obtained from the Poisson models but a radical effect on the estimates obtained by way of the negative binomial. Inclusion of an income-travel cost interaction term generally produces a more conservative but not a statistically significantly different estimate of consumer surplus in both Poisson and negative binomial models. It also generates broader confidence intervals. Application of truncation, the Englin correction and the income-travel cost interaction produced the most conservative estimates of consumer surplus and eliminated the statistical difference between the Poisson and the negative binomial. Use of the income-travel cost interaction term reveals that for visitors who face relatively low travel costs, the relationship between income and travel demand is negative, while it is positive for those who face high travel costs. This provides an explanation of the ambiguities on the findings regarding the role of income widely observed in the TCM literature. Our results suggest that policies that reduce access to publicly owned resources inordinately impact local low income recreationists and are contrary to environmental justice. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling hurricane evacuation traffic : development of a time-dependent hurricane evacuation demand model.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-04-01

Little attention has been given to estimating dynamic travel demand in transportation planning in the past. However, when factors influencing travel are changing significantly over time such as with an approaching hurricane - dynamic demand and t...

Responses of Lower-Body Power and Match Running Demands Following Long-Haul Travel in International Rugby Sevens Players.

PubMed

Mitchell, John A; Pumpa, Kate L; Pyne, David B

2017-03-01

Mitchell, JA, Pumpa, KL, and Pyne, DB. Responses of lowerbody power and match running demands after long-haul travel in international rugby sevens players. J Strength Cond Res 31(3): 686-695, 2017-This study determined the effect of long-haul (>5 hours) travel on lower-body power and match running demands in international rugby sevens players. Lower-body power was assessed in 22 male international rugby sevens players (age 21.7 ± 2.7 years, mass 89.0 ± 6.7 kg, stature 180.5 ± 6.2 cm; mean ± SD) monitored over 17 rugby sevens tournaments. A countermovement jump was used to monitor lower-body power (peak and mean power) over repeated three week travel and competition periods (pretravel, posttravel, and posttournament). Small decreases were evident in peak power after both short and long-haul travel (-4.0%, ±3.2%; mean, ±90% confidence limits) with further reductions in peak and mean power posttournament (-4.5%, ±2.3% and -3.8%, ±1.5%) culminating in a moderate decrease in peak power overall (-7.4%, ±4.0%). A subset of 12 players (completing a minimum of 8 tournaments) had the effects of match running demands assessed with lower-body power. In this subset, long-haul travel elicited a large decrease in lower-body peak (-9.4%, ±3.5%) and mean power (-5.6%, ±2.9%) over the monitoring period, with a small decrease (-4.3%, ±3.0% and -2.2%, ±1.7%) posttravel and moderate decrease (-5.4%, ±2.5% and -3.5%, ±1.9%) posttournament, respectively. Match running demands were monitored through global positioning system. In long-haul tournaments, the 12 players covered ∼13%, ±13% greater total distance (meter) and ∼11%, ±10% higher average game meters >5 m·s when compared with short-haul (<5 hours) travel. Effective pretravel and posttravel player management strategies are indicated to reduce neuromuscular fatigue and running load demands in rugby sevens tournaments after long-haul travel.

Challenges and solutions for applying the travel cost demand model to geographically remote visitor destinations: A case study of bear viewing at Katmai National Park and Preserve

USGS Publications Warehouse

Richardson, Leslie; Huber, Christopher; Loomis, John

2017-01-01

Remote and unique destinations present difficulties when attempting to construct traditional travel cost models to value recreation demand. The biggest limitation comes from the lack of variation in the dependent variable, defined as the number of trips taken over a set time frame. There are various approaches that can be used for overcoming limitations of the traditional travel cost model in the context of remote destinations. This study applies an adaptation of the standard model to estimate recreation benefits of bear viewing at Katmai National Park and Preserve in Alaska, which represents a once-in-a-lifetime experience for many visitors. Results demonstrate that visitors to this park’s Brooks Camp area are willing to pay an average of US$287 per day of bear viewing. Implications of these findings for valuing recreation at other remote destinations are discussed.

Analysis of the Effects of Connected–Automated Vehicle Technologies on Travel Demand

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Auld, Joshua; Sokolov, Vadim; Stephens, Thomas S.

Connected–automated vehicle (CAV) technologies are likely to have significant effects not only on how vehicles operate in the transportation system, but also on how individuals behave and use their vehicles. While many CAV technologies—such as connected adaptive cruise control and ecosignals—have the potential to increase network throughput and efficiency, many of these same technologies have a secondary effect of reducing driver burden, which can drive changes in travel behavior. Such changes in travel behavior—in effect, lowering the cost of driving—have the potential to increase greatly the utilization of the transportation system with concurrent negative externalities, such as congestion, energy use,more » and emissions, working against the positive effects on the transportation system resulting from increased capacity. To date, few studies have analyzed the potential effects on CAV technologies from a systems perspective; studies often focus on gains and losses to an individual vehicle, at a single intersection, or along a corridor. However, travel demand and traffic flow constitute a complex, adaptive, nonlinear system. Therefore, in this study, an advanced transportation systems simulation model—POLARIS—was used. POLARIS includes cosimulation of travel behavior and traffic flow to study the potential effects of several CAV technologies at the regional level. Various technology penetration levels and changes in travel time sensitivity have been analyzed to determine a potential range of effects on vehicle miles traveled from various CAV technologies.« less

An analysis of short haul air passenger demand, volume 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blumer, T. P.; Swan, W. M.

1978-01-01

Several demand models for short haul air travel are proposed and calibrated on pooled data. The models are designed to predict demand and analyze some of the motivating phenomena behind demand generation. In particular, an attempt is made to include the effects of competing modes and of alternate destinations. The results support three conclusions: (1) the auto mode is the air mode's major competitor; (2) trip time is an overriding factor in intermodal competition, with air fare at its present level appearing unimportant to the typical short haul air traveler; and (3) distance appears to underly several demand generating phenomena, and therefore, must be considered very carefully to any intercity demand model. It may be the cause of the wide range of fare elasticities reported by researchers over the past 15 years. A behavioral demand model is proposed and calibrated. It combines the travel generating effects of income and population, the effects of modal split, the sensitivity of travel to price and time, and the effect of alternative destinations satisfying the trip purpose.

Developing tolled-route demand estimation capabilities for Texas : opportunities for enhancement of existing models.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-08-01

The travel demand models developed and applied by the Transportation Planning and Programming Division : (TPP) of the Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) are daily three-step models (i.e., trip generation, trip : distribution, and traffic assi...

Estimating the Effects of Urban Travel Policies

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1976-04-01

The report presents models and procedures for quick evaluation of transportation policy options on urban travel behavior. The methods described in this report can be used to estimate the travel demand effects of a wide variety of transportation polic...

Integrated Mode Choice, Small Aircraft Demand, and Airport Operations Model User's Guide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yackovetsky, Robert E. (Technical Monitor); Dollyhigh, Samuel M.

2004-01-01

A mode choice model that generates on-demand air travel forecasts at a set of GA airports based on changes in economic characteristics, vehicle performance characteristics such as speed and cost, and demographic trends has been integrated with a model to generate itinerate aircraft operations by airplane category at a set of 3227 airports. Numerous intermediate outputs can be generated, such as the number of additional trips diverted from automobiles and schedule air by the improved performance and cost of on-demand air vehicles. The total number of transported passenger miles that are diverted is also available. From these results the number of new aircraft to service the increased demand can be calculated. Output from the models discussed is in the format to generate the origin and destination traffic flow between the 3227 airports based on solutions to a gravity model.

Investigating the determining factors for transit travel demand by bus mode in US metropolitan statistical areas.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-05-01

Proper understanding of the nature of the transit travel demand is at the heart of transportation policy making and the success of : transit systems. Unfortunately, most of the existing studies have focused on a single or few transit systems or metro...

HIV and travel.

PubMed

Schuhwerk, M A; Richens, J; Zuckerman, Jane N

2006-01-01

There is a high demand for travel among HIV-positive individual. This demand arises partly from those who have benefited from advances in antiretroviral therapy as well as those with disease progression. The key to a successful and uneventful holiday lies in careful pre-trip planning, yet many patients fail to obtain advice before travelling. Travel advice for HIV patients is becoming increasingly specialized. In addition to advice on common travel-related infectious diseases, HIV-positive travellers are strongly advised to carry information with them and they need specific advice regarding country entry restrictions, HIV inclusive travel insurance, safety of travel vaccinations and highly active antiretroviral therapy-related issues. A wide range of relevant issues for the HIV-positive traveller are discussed in this review and useful websites can be found at the end.

Alternative methods for developing external travel survey data.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-10-01

The Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) has a comprehensive on-going travel survey : program that supports the travel demand models being developed for transportation planning efforts in urban : areas throughout Texas. One component of the sur...

Projecting Future Scheduled Airline Demand, Schedules and NGATS Benefits Using TSAM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dollyhigh, Samuel; Smith, Jeremy; Viken, Jeff; Trani, Antonio; Baik, Hojong; Hinze, Nickolas; Ashiabor, Senanu

2006-01-01

The Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM) developed by Virginia Tech s Air Transportation Systems Lab and NASA Langley can provide detailed analysis of the effects on the demand for air travel of a full range of NASA and FAA aviation projects. TSAM has been used to project the passenger demand for very light jet (VLJ) air taxi service, scheduled airline demand growth and future schedules, Next Generation Air Transportation System (NGATS) benefits, and future passenger revenues for the Airport and Airway Trust Fund. TSAM can project the resulting demand when new vehicles and/or technology is inserted into the long distance (100 or more miles one-way) transportation system, as well as, changes in demand as a result of fare yield increases or decreases, airport transit times, scheduled flight times, ticket taxes, reductions or increases in flight delays, and so on. TSAM models all long distance travel in the contiguous U.S. and determines the mode choice of the traveler based on detailed trip costs, travel time, schedule frequency, purpose of the trip (business or non-business), and household income level of the traveler. Demand is modeled at the county level, with an airport choice module providing up to three airports as part of the mode choice. Future enplanements at airports can be projected for different scenarios. A Fratar algorithm and a schedule generator are applied to generate future flight schedules. This paper presents the application of TSAM to modeling future scheduled air passenger demand and resulting airline schedules, the impact of NGATS goals and objectives on passenger demand, along with projections for passenger fee receipts for several scenarios for the FAA Airport and Airway Trust Fund.

New Approaches to Travel Forecasting Models: A Synthesis of Four Research Proposals

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1994-01-01

In July 1992, the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) issued a solicitation for proposals to redesign the travel demand forecasting process. The purpose of the solicitation was to enable travel behavior researchers to explain how transportation pla...

Exploring the Positive Utility of Travel and Mode Choice

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-08-01

Why do people travel? Underlying most travel behavior research is the derived-demand paradigm of travel analysis, which assumes that travel demand is derived from the demand for spatially separated activities, traveling is a means to an end (reaching...

Synthesis of traveler choice research: improving modeling accuracy for better transportation decisionmaking.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-08-01

"Over the last 50 years, advances in the fields of travel behavior research and travel demand forecasting have been : immense, driven by the increasing costs of infrastructure and spatial limitations in areas of high population density : together wit...

APPLICATION OF TRAVEL TIME RELIABILITY FOR PERFORMANCE ORIENTED OPERATIONAL PLANNING OF EXPRESSWAYS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehran, Babak; Nakamura, Hideki

Evaluation of impacts of congestion improvement scheme s on travel time reliability is very significant for road authorities since travel time reliability repr esents operational performance of expressway segments. In this paper, a methodology is presented to estimate travel tim e reliability prior to implementation of congestion relief schemes based on travel time variation modeling as a function of demand, capacity, weather conditions and road accident s. For subject expressway segmen ts, traffic conditions are modeled over a whole year considering demand and capacity as random variables. Patterns of demand and capacity are generated for each five minute interval by appl ying Monte-Carlo simulation technique, and accidents are randomly generated based on a model that links acci dent rate to traffic conditions. A whole year analysis is performed by comparing de mand and available capacity for each scenario and queue length is estimated through shockwave analysis for each time in terval. Travel times are estimated from refined speed-flow relationships developed for intercity expressways and buffer time index is estimated consequently as a measure of travel time reliability. For validation, estimated reliability indices are compared with measured values from empirical data, and it is shown that the proposed method is suitable for operational evaluation and planning purposes.

1988/1989 household travel survey

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1989-07-01

The primary objectives of this study were to provide the data: (1) : to update the trip generation rates used in the Maricopa Association of Governments (MAG) travel demand forecasting process, and; (2) to validate the MAG trip distribution model. Th...

Empirical and model study on Travel-entering China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Xue-Fang; Chen, Qi-Juan; Chang, Hui; He, Da-Ren

2006-03-01

We have done an empirical investigation on the travel-entering China from abroad to 31 regions of Chinese Mainland in recent ten years, including the development of the traveler's number, the traveler's number distribution for the traveler's home regions, the traveler's number distribution for the traveler's destination regions in Chinese mainland, and so on. We also suggest a dynamic model for simulating the competition between the 31 regions in the traveling market by considering two main influence factors, the attracting factor of the travel destinations and the distance between the destination and the home regions of the travelers. The simulation results show a good agreement with the empirical data. We expect the model could suggest some advice and thoughts to the travel-entering management departments in China and may be also for other countries.

Modeling of plug-in electric vehicle travel patterns and charging load based on trip chain generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Dai; Gao, Junyu; Li, Pan; Wang, Bin; Zhang, Cong; Saxena, Samveg

2017-08-01

Modeling PEV travel and charging behavior is the key to estimate the charging demand and further explore the potential of providing grid services. This paper presents a stochastic simulation methodology to generate itineraries and charging load profiles for a population of PEVs based on real-world vehicle driving data. In order to describe the sequence of daily travel activities, we use the trip chain model which contains the detailed information of each trip, namely start time, end time, trip distance, start location and end location. A trip chain generation method is developed based on the Naive Bayes model to generate a large number of trips which are temporally and spatially coupled. We apply the proposed methodology to investigate the multi-location charging loads in three different scenarios. Simulation results show that home charging can meet the energy demand of the majority of PEVs in an average condition. In addition, we calculate the lower bound of charging load peak on the premise of lowest charging cost. The results are instructive for the design and construction of charging facilities to avoid excessive infrastructure.

Wildfire effects on hiking and biking demand in New Mexico: a travel cost study.

PubMed

Hesseln, Hayley; Loomis, John B; González-Cabán, Armando; Alexander, Susan

2003-12-01

We use a travel cost model to test the effects of wild and prescribed fire on visitation by hikers and mountain bikers in New Mexico. Our results indicate that net benefits for mountain bikers is $150 per trip and that they take an average of 6.2 trips per year. Hikers take 2.8 trips per year with individual net benefits per trip of $130. Both hikers' and mountain bikers' demand functions react adversely to prescribed burning. Net benefits for both groups fall as areas recover from prescribed burns. Because both visitation and annual recreation benefits decrease to these two types of visitors, this gives rise to multiple use costs associated with prescribed burning. With respect to wildfire, hikers and mountain bikers both exhibit decreased visitation as areas recover from wildfires, however, only hikers indicate an increase in per trip net benefits. Bikers' demand effectively drops to zero. These results differ from previous findings in the literature and have implications for efficient implementation of the National Fire Plan and whether prescribed burning is a cost effective tool for multiple use management of National Forests. Specifically, that fire and recreation managers cannot expect recreation users to react similarly to fire across recreation activities, or different geographic regions. What is cost effective in one region may not be so in another.

Modeling a Spatio-Temporal Individual Travel Behavior Using Geotagged Social Network Data: a Case Study of Greater Cincinnati

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saeedimoghaddam, M.; Kim, C.

2017-10-01

Understanding individual travel behavior is vital in travel demand management as well as in urban and transportation planning. New data sources including mobile phone data and location-based social media (LBSM) data allow us to understand mobility behavior on an unprecedented level of details. Recent studies of trip purpose prediction tend to use machine learning (ML) methods, since they generally produce high levels of predictive accuracy. Few studies used LSBM as a large data source to extend its potential in predicting individual travel destination using ML techniques. In the presented research, we created a spatio-temporal probabilistic model based on an ensemble ML framework named "Random Forests" utilizing the travel extracted from geotagged Tweets in 419 census tracts of Greater Cincinnati area for predicting the tract ID of an individual's travel destination at any time using the information of its origin. We evaluated the model accuracy using the travels extracted from the Tweets themselves as well as the travels from household travel survey. The Tweets and survey based travels that start from same tract in the south western parts of the study area is more likely to select same destination compare to the other parts. Also, both Tweets and survey based travels were affected by the attraction points in the downtown of Cincinnati and the tracts in the north eastern part of the area. Finally, both evaluations show that the model predictions are acceptable, but it cannot predict destination using inputs from other data sources as precise as the Tweets based data.

Critical capacity, travel time delays and travel time distribution of rapid mass transit systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Legara, Erika Fille; Monterola, Christopher; Lee, Kee Khoon; Hung, Gih Guang

2014-07-01

We set up a mechanistic agent-based model of a rapid mass transit system. Using empirical data from Singapore's unidentifiable smart fare card, we validate our model by reconstructing actual travel demand and duration of travel statistics. We subsequently use this model to investigate two phenomena that are known to significantly affect the dynamics within the RTS: (1) overloading in trains and (2) overcrowding in the RTS platform. We demonstrate that by varying the loading capacity of trains, a tipping point emerges at which an exponential increase in the duration of travel time delays is observed. We also probe the impact on the rail system dynamics of three types of passenger growth distribution across stations: (i) Dirac delta, (ii) uniform and (iii) geometric, which is reminiscent of the effect of land use on transport. Under the assumption of a fixed loading capacity, we demonstrate the dependence of a given origin-destination (OD) pair on the flow volume of commuters in station platforms.

Modeling, implementation, and validation of arterial travel time reliability : [summary].

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-11-01

Travel time reliability (TTR) has been proposed as : a better measure of a facilitys performance than : a statistical measure like peak hour demand. TTR : is based on more information about average traffic : flows and longer time periods, thus inc...

Consumer Expectations of Capacity Constrains and Their Effect on the Demand for Multi-Class Air Travel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Battersby, Bryn D.

2003-01-01

This paper argues that a consumer's decision on ticket class takes into account the expected likelihood of obtaining a seat in a particular class which, in turn, partially depends on an optimum "transaction cost". Taking into account the preferences of the consumer and the information that the consumer is endowed with, the consumer will select a ticket that includes its own optimal transaction cost. This motivates the inclusion of the capacity constraint as a proxy independent variable for these consumer expectations This then forms the basis of a model of air-travel demand with specific reference to Australia. A censored likelihood function allowing for correlation in the disturbance term across k classes is introduced. The correlation in the disturbances arises as a result of the interdependence of the capacity constraints in k different ticket classes on each flight.

Forecasting paratransit services demand : review and recommendations.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-06-01

Travel demand forecasting tools for Floridas paratransit services are outdated, utilizing old national trip : generation rate generalities and simple linear regression models. In its guidance for the development of : mandated Transportation Disadv...

Multivariate time series modeling of short-term system scale irrigation demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perera, Kushan C.; Western, Andrew W.; George, Biju; Nawarathna, Bandara

2015-12-01

Travel time limits the ability of irrigation system operators to react to short-term irrigation demand fluctuations that result from variations in weather, including very hot periods and rainfall events, as well as the various other pressures and opportunities that farmers face. Short-term system-wide irrigation demand forecasts can assist in system operation. Here we developed a multivariate time series (ARMAX) model to forecast irrigation demands with respect to aggregated service points flows (IDCGi, ASP) and off take regulator flows (IDCGi, OTR) based across 5 command areas, which included area covered under four irrigation channels and the study area. These command area specific ARMAX models forecast 1-5 days ahead daily IDCGi, ASP and IDCGi, OTR using the real time flow data recorded at the service points and the uppermost regulators and observed meteorological data collected from automatic weather stations. The model efficiency and the predictive performance were quantified using the root mean squared error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (NSE), anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) and mean square skill score (MSSS). During the evaluation period, NSE for IDCGi, ASP and IDCGi, OTR across 5 command areas were ranged 0.98-0.78. These models were capable of generating skillful forecasts (MSSS ⩾ 0.5 and ACC ⩾ 0.6) of IDCGi, ASP and IDCGi, OTR for all 5 lead days and IDCGi, ASP and IDCGi, OTR forecasts were better than using the long term monthly mean irrigation demand. Overall these predictive performance from the ARMAX time series models were higher than almost all the previous studies we are aware. Further, IDCGi, ASP and IDCGi, OTR forecasts have improved the operators' ability to react for near future irrigation demand fluctuations as the developed ARMAX time series models were self-adaptive to reflect the short-term changes in the irrigation demand with respect to various pressures and opportunities that farmers' face, such as

Effects of travel cost and participation in recreational activities on national forest visits

Treesearch

Seong-Hoon Cho; J.M. Bowker; Donald B.K. English; Roland K. Roberts; Taeyoung Kim

2014-01-01

In the face of higher travel costs due to rising gasoline prices and scarce budget resources,we explored differences in the impacts of travel costs on recreational demand for visitors participating in various recreational activities. Five individual travel cost models were estimated, one for each of 5 national forests (i.e., Allegheny, Coconino, Mount Baker-Snoqualmie...

A Statistical Analysis of Induced Travel Effects in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Region

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-04-01

We investigate the hypothesis of induced travel demand. County level data from Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, and Washington, DC are used to estimate "fixed-effects" cross-sectional time-series models that relate travel levels, measured as daily...

Travel time reliability modeling.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-07-01

This report includes three papers as follows: : 1. Guo F., Rakha H., and Park S. (2010), "A Multi-state Travel Time Reliability Model," : Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, n 2188, : pp. 46-54. : 2. Park S.,...

Travel health: sun protection and skin cancer prevention for travellers.

PubMed

Wood, Cate

The UK population likes to travel to sunny parts of the world, where the risk of sunburn is greater than it is at home. Sunburn and the cultural desire for a tan is one of the risk factors for the increase in skin cancer. The rise in foreign travel has resulted in an increased demand for pre-travel health services, with nurses in primary care acting as the main providers.Within these consultations, the traveller and their travel plans are risk assessed.Travel health consultations give an ideal opportunity to discuss and advise the public regarding sun burn and skin cancer protection. However, there are also other ways to impart safety in the sun message to travellers. Skin protection is a health promoting activity provided as a part of public health provision and all nurses can play a role in prevention.

When travel is a challenge: Travel medicine and the 'dis-abled' traveller.

PubMed

Bauer, Irmgard

Travellers with recognised disabilities or the dis-ability to function as required during a trip have been overlooked in the travel medicine literature. This paper provides a starting point for further discussion and research into this neglected traveller population. In contrast, tourism research has explored travel with a disability for some time in order to understand the travellers' needs and to improve services accordingly. The contemporary bio-psycho-social understanding of disability serves as the framework for exploring motivations to travel as well as barriers, such as inter and intrapersonal, economic, structural and attitudinal obstacles. The demands of complex travel planning are acknowledged. Attention is also drawn to the particular issue of acquired disability. The theoretical discussion is complemented by travellers' own accounts using as examples mobility impairment on aeroplanes, sensory impairments, and obesity. These insights should inform high quality travel health care starting with an exploration of the health professionals' own views on such endeavours. Important are appropriate communication skills, an understanding of the travellers'/carers' views, wishes and judgment of abilities, as well as the appreciation of the reason for the trip, destination and planned activities. Challenging may be the need to accept that the traveller/carer will be more knowledgeable about the disability, needs, potential problems and solutions than the health professional. Finally, medical requirements for destination and activity need to be combined with the medical requirements for the dis-abling condition. Scarce literature and increasing numbers of travellers with disabilities should make this field a research priority in travel medicine. Unless there is an absolute medical contraindication, travel health professionals should encourage and support travellers for whom travel is a challenge. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Understanding congested travel in urban areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Çolak, Serdar; Lima, Antonio; González, Marta C.

2016-03-01

Rapid urbanization and increasing demand for transportation burdens urban road infrastructures. The interplay of number of vehicles and available road capacity on their routes determines the level of congestion. Although approaches to modify demand and capacity exist, the possible limits of congestion alleviation by only modifying route choices have not been systematically studied. Here we couple the road networks of five diverse cities with the travel demand profiles in the morning peak hour obtained from billions of mobile phone traces to comprehensively analyse urban traffic. We present that a dimensionless ratio of the road supply to the travel demand explains the percentage of time lost in congestion. Finally, we examine congestion relief under a centralized routing scheme with varying levels of awareness of social good and quantify the benefits to show that moderate levels are enough to achieve significant collective travel time savings.

Studies in the demand for short haul air transportation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kanafani, A.; Gosling, G.; Taghavi, S.

1975-01-01

Demand is analyzed in a short haul air transportation corridor. Emphasis is placed on traveler selection from available routes. Model formulations, estimation techniques, and traffic data handling are included.

Regularities in travel demand : an international perspective

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-12-01

The major mobility variables from about 30 travel surveys in more than 10 countries are compared in this paper. The analysis of cross-sectional and longitudinal data broadly confirms some earlier findings of regularities in time and money expenditure...

A travel time forecasting model based on change-point detection method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LI, Shupeng; GUANG, Xiaoping; QIAN, Yongsheng; ZENG, Junwei

2017-06-01

Travel time parameters obtained from road traffic sensors data play an important role in traffic management practice. A travel time forecasting model is proposed for urban road traffic sensors data based on the method of change-point detection in this paper. The first-order differential operation is used for preprocessing over the actual loop data; a change-point detection algorithm is designed to classify the sequence of large number of travel time data items into several patterns; then a travel time forecasting model is established based on autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. By computer simulation, different control parameters are chosen for adaptive change point search for travel time series, which is divided into several sections of similar state.Then linear weight function is used to fit travel time sequence and to forecast travel time. The results show that the model has high accuracy in travel time forecasting.

Nonlinear models for estimating GSFC travel requirements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buffalano, C.; Hagan, F. J.

1974-01-01

A methodology is presented for estimating travel requirements for a particular period of time. Travel models were generated using nonlinear regression analysis techniques on a data base of FY-72 and FY-73 information from 79 GSFC projects. Although the subject matter relates to GSFX activities, the type of analysis used and the manner of selecting the relevant variables would be of interest to other NASA centers, government agencies, private corporations and, in general, any organization with a significant travel budget. Models were developed for each of six types of activity: flight projects (in-house and out-of-house), experiments on non-GSFC projects, international projects, ART/SRT, data analysis, advanced studies, tracking and data, and indirects.

Understanding congested travel in urban areas

PubMed Central

Çolak, Serdar; Lima, Antonio; González, Marta C.

2016-01-01

Rapid urbanization and increasing demand for transportation burdens urban road infrastructures. The interplay of number of vehicles and available road capacity on their routes determines the level of congestion. Although approaches to modify demand and capacity exist, the possible limits of congestion alleviation by only modifying route choices have not been systematically studied. Here we couple the road networks of five diverse cities with the travel demand profiles in the morning peak hour obtained from billions of mobile phone traces to comprehensively analyse urban traffic. We present that a dimensionless ratio of the road supply to the travel demand explains the percentage of time lost in congestion. Finally, we examine congestion relief under a centralized routing scheme with varying levels of awareness of social good and quantify the benefits to show that moderate levels are enough to achieve significant collective travel time savings. PMID:26978719

An integrated communications demand model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doubleday, C. F.

1980-11-01

A computer model of communications demand is being developed to permit dynamic simulations of the long-term evolution of demand for communications media in the U.K. to be made under alternative assumptions about social, economic and technological trends in British Telecom's business environment. The context and objectives of the project and the potential uses of the model are reviewed, and four key concepts in the demand for communications media, around which the model is being structured are discussed: (1) the generation of communications demand; (2) substitution between media; (3) technological convergence; and (4) competition. Two outline perspectives on the model itself are given.

Travel demand management : a toolbox of strategies to reduce single\\0x2010occupant vehicle trips and increase alternate mode usage in Arizona.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-02-01

The report provides a suite of recommended strategies to reduce single-occupant vehicle traffic in the urban : areas of Phoenix and Tucson, Arizona, which are presented as a travel demand management toolbox. The : toolbox includes supporting research...

The impact of changing technology on the demand for air transportation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kneafsey, J. T.; Taneja, N. K.

1978-01-01

Demand models for air transportation that are sensitive to the impact of changing technology were developed. The models are responsive to potential changes in technology, and to changing economic, social, and political factors as well. In addition to anticipating the wide differences in the factors influencing the demand for long haul and short haul air travel, the models were designed to clearly distinguish among the unique features of these markets.

Forecasting the demand potential for STOL air transportation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fan, S.; Horonjeff, R.; Kanafani, A.; Mogharabi, A.

1973-01-01

A process for predicting the potential demand for STOL aircraft was investigated to provide a conceptual framework, and an analytical methodology for estimating the STOL air transportation market. It was found that: (1) schedule frequency has the strongest effect on the traveler's choice among available routes, (2) work related business constitutes approximately 50% of total travel volume, and (3) air travel demand follows economic trends.

The cost of simplifying air travel when modeling disease spread.

PubMed

Lessler, Justin; Kaufman, James H; Ford, Daniel A; Douglas, Judith V

2009-01-01

Air travel plays a key role in the spread of many pathogens. Modeling the long distance spread of infectious disease in these cases requires an air travel model. Highly detailed air transportation models can be over determined and computationally problematic. We compared the predictions of a simplified air transport model with those of a model of all routes and assessed the impact of differences on models of infectious disease. Using U.S. ticket data from 2007, we compared a simplified "pipe" model, in which individuals flow in and out of the air transport system based on the number of arrivals and departures from a given airport, to a fully saturated model where all routes are modeled individually. We also compared the pipe model to a "gravity" model where the probability of travel is scaled by physical distance; the gravity model did not differ significantly from the pipe model. The pipe model roughly approximated actual air travel, but tended to overestimate the number of trips between small airports and underestimate travel between major east and west coast airports. For most routes, the maximum number of false (or missed) introductions of disease is small (<1 per day) but for a few routes this rate is greatly underestimated by the pipe model. If our interest is in large scale regional and national effects of disease, the simplified pipe model may be adequate. If we are interested in specific effects of interventions on particular air routes or the time for the disease to reach a particular location, a more complex point-to-point model will be more accurate. For many problems a hybrid model that independently models some frequently traveled routes may be the best choice. Regardless of the model used, the effect of simplifications and sensitivity to errors in parameter estimation should be analyzed.

Multiple-Use Site Demand Analysis: An Application to the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Peterson, George L.; And Others

1982-01-01

A single-site, multiple-use model for analyzing trip demand is derived from a multiple site regional model based on utility maximizing choice theory. The model is used to analyze and compare trips to the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness for several types of use. Travel cost elasticities of demand are compared and discussed. (Authors/JN)

Demand forecast model based on CRM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Yuancui; Chen, Lichao

2006-11-01

With interiorizing day by day management thought that regarding customer as the centre, forecasting customer demand becomes more and more important. In the demand forecast of customer relationship management, the traditional forecast methods have very great limitation because much uncertainty of the demand, these all require new modeling to meet the demands of development. In this paper, the notion is that forecasting the demand according to characteristics of the potential customer, then modeling by it. The model first depicts customer adopting uniform multiple indexes. Secondly, the model acquires characteristic customers on the basis of data warehouse and the technology of data mining. The last, there get the most similar characteristic customer by their comparing and forecast the demands of new customer by the most similar characteristic customer.

A Discrete Velocity Kinetic Model with Food Metric: Chemotaxis Traveling Waves.

PubMed

Choi, Sun-Ho; Kim, Yong-Jung

2017-02-01

We introduce a mesoscopic scale chemotaxis model for traveling wave phenomena which is induced by food metric. The organisms of this simplified kinetic model have two discrete velocity modes, [Formula: see text] and a constant tumbling rate. The main feature of the model is that the speed of organisms is constant [Formula: see text] with respect to the food metric, not the Euclidean metric. The uniqueness and the existence of the traveling wave solution of the model are obtained. Unlike the classical logarithmic model case there exist traveling waves under super-linear consumption rates and infinite population pulse-type traveling waves are obtained. Numerical simulations are also provided.

Measuring and modeling travel well-being in a dynamic context.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-03-01

Travel behavior models typically assume that people base their travel choices on time and cost : considerations and do not account sufficiently for qualitative factors that affect the choice. Travel : choices are however more likely to be motivated b...

Travel health preparation and travel-related morbidity of splenectomised individuals.

PubMed

Boeddha, Christien; de Graaf, Wilmar; Overbosch, David; van Genderen, Perry J J

2012-07-01

Asplenic or hyposplenic patients are at an increased risk of encapsulated bacterial and intraerythrocytic parasitic infections, which are endemic at many travel destinations. With proper travel health advice and preparation splenectomised individuals could have comparable travel-related morbidity as healthy control subjects. We conducted a prospective case-control study with 21 travel pairs. Each pair consisted of a splenectomised patient (case) and a healthy, non-splenectomised travel companion (control) in order to match for travel destination, duration and potential exposures to travel-related health risks. All participants filled out a questionnaire detailing travel health preparation including vaccination and malaria prophylaxis as well as travel-related morbidity. Cases and controls were comparable for age and gender. Cases received significantly more information about on demand use of antibiotics in case of fever. Immunisation coverage against encapsulated bacteria and adherence to malaria prophylaxis guidelines was suboptimal. There were no significant differences in the occurrence of travel-related ailments nor differences in severity of ailments. The immunisation coverage against encapsulated bacteria and adherence to malaria prophylaxis guidelines was suboptimal in some splenectomised patients and should be improved. Strict adherence to national travel health advice guidelines and specific guidelines for asplenic patients is advisable. However, with regard to travel-related morbidity there are no significant differences in morbidity between splenectomised patients and healthy controls, at least in the setting of short-term travel. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Accounting for ethnicity in recreation demand: a flexible count data approach

Treesearch

J. Michael Bowker; V.R. Leeworthy

1998-01-01

The authors examine ethnicity and individual trip-taking behavior associated with natural resource based recreation in the Florida Keys. Bowker and Leeworthy estimate trip demand using the travel cost method. They then extend this model with a varying parameter adaptation to test the congruency of' demand and economic value across white and Hispanic user subgroups...

Air Charter - The Business Airline of the Future...But, Does the Business Traveler Know?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaps, Robert W.; Gardner, Robin C.; Hartung, Jeffrey W.

2001-01-01

Historically, FAR Part 121 commercial carriers have provided efficient, economical and safe air transportation for corporate and business users. Recently, however, corporate and business travelers find their travel plans disrupted by delays, bankruptcies, poor service, lost baggage, fare increases, labor strikes and other systemic difficulties that degrade their travel experience to unsatisfactory levels. This article examines these Part 121 service delivery problems and, utilizing a tripartite investigative methodology, examines an alternative air transport mode: FAR Part 135 on-demand charter travel products. This long extant segment of our national air transportation system is set prime to support increased demand for charter services. Corporate and business travelers are set prime to utilize viable, cost effective alternatives to commercial travel products. Two research questions emerge. First is whether corporate and business travelers are aware of Part 135 travel alternatives. Second is whether Part 135 charter service providers are aware of this latent demand and are effectively targeting this demand segment in their marketing efforts. The three-part surveys employed to investigate these questions examined demand side

Dynamic Bus Travel Time Prediction Models on Road with Multiple Bus Routes

PubMed Central

Bai, Cong; Peng, Zhong-Ren; Lu, Qing-Chang; Sun, Jian

2015-01-01

Accurate and real-time travel time information for buses can help passengers better plan their trips and minimize waiting times. A dynamic travel time prediction model for buses addressing the cases on road with multiple bus routes is proposed in this paper, based on support vector machines (SVMs) and Kalman filtering-based algorithm. In the proposed model, the well-trained SVM model predicts the baseline bus travel times from the historical bus trip data; the Kalman filtering-based dynamic algorithm can adjust bus travel times with the latest bus operation information and the estimated baseline travel times. The performance of the proposed dynamic model is validated with the real-world data on road with multiple bus routes in Shenzhen, China. The results show that the proposed dynamic model is feasible and applicable for bus travel time prediction and has the best prediction performance among all the five models proposed in the study in terms of prediction accuracy on road with multiple bus routes. PMID:26294903

Dynamic Bus Travel Time Prediction Models on Road with Multiple Bus Routes.

PubMed

Bai, Cong; Peng, Zhong-Ren; Lu, Qing-Chang; Sun, Jian

2015-01-01

Accurate and real-time travel time information for buses can help passengers better plan their trips and minimize waiting times. A dynamic travel time prediction model for buses addressing the cases on road with multiple bus routes is proposed in this paper, based on support vector machines (SVMs) and Kalman filtering-based algorithm. In the proposed model, the well-trained SVM model predicts the baseline bus travel times from the historical bus trip data; the Kalman filtering-based dynamic algorithm can adjust bus travel times with the latest bus operation information and the estimated baseline travel times. The performance of the proposed dynamic model is validated with the real-world data on road with multiple bus routes in Shenzhen, China. The results show that the proposed dynamic model is feasible and applicable for bus travel time prediction and has the best prediction performance among all the five models proposed in the study in terms of prediction accuracy on road with multiple bus routes.

Regional demand and supply projections for outdoor recreation

Treesearch

Donald B. K. English; Carter J. Betz; J. Mark Young; John C. Bergstrom; H. Ken Cordell

1993-01-01

This paper develops regional recreation supply and demand projections, by combining coefficients from the national 1989 RPA Assessment models with regional regressor values. Regional recreation opportunity estimates also are developed, based on regional travel behavior. Results show important regional variations in projections of recreation opportunities, trip supply,...

A travel cost analysis of nonconsumptive wildlife-associated recreation in the United States

Treesearch

William T. Zawacki; Allan Marsinko; J. Michael Bowker

2000-01-01

Increased emphasis on sustainable resource management in forestry has effectuated a demand for various nontimber values. Nonconsumptive wildlife recreation is an important nontimber service produced on forest and rangeland. Travel cost models and data from the 1991 National Survey of Fishing, Hunting and Wildlife-Associated Recreation are used to estimate the demand...

Sampling model of government travel vouchers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hu, P.S.; Wright, T.

1987-02-01

A pilot survey was designed and executed to better understand the structure of the universe of all government travel vouchers. Thirteen civilian and military sites were selected for the pilot survey. A total of 3916 travel vouchers with attached tickets were sampled. During the course of the pilot survey, it was felt that the compounding problems of the relative rarity of the expired, unused tickets and the enormously huge universe were too much of an obstacle to overcome in sampling the entire universe (including the US Air Force, US Army, US Navy, US Marines, other Department of Defense offices, andmore » civil) in the first year. The universe was then narrowed to the US Air Force, and US Army which have to two largest government travel expenditures. Based on the results of the pilot survey, ORNL recommends a stratified two-stage cluster sampling model. With probability of 0.90, a sample of size 78 (sites) will be needed to estimate the amounts per airline which will not be more than $50,000 from the true values. This sampling model allows one to estimate the total dollar amounts of expired, unused tickets for individual airlines.« less

World Air Travel Demand, 1950-1980

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sarames, G. N.

1972-01-01

Total world scheduled air passenger traffic carried by the airlines of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), excluding the U.S.S.R., increased from 17.4 billion passenger miles in 1950 to 237.4 billion in 1970. This represents an average annual growth rate of 14% during the past two decades. The U.S.S.R. became a member of ICAO in 1970, and Aeroflot - the only Russian airline - reported 49 billion passenger miles for 1970. This traffic, which encompasses both domestic and international travel as well as some nonscheduled flights, is not included in the ICAO world totals shown in this report.

An Analysis of the Demand for and Value of Outdoor Recreation in the United States.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bergstrom, John C.; Cordell, H. Ken

1991-01-01

Results of a study of demand equations for 37 outdoor recreational activities using a multicommunity, multisite travel cost model suggest that determinants of the demand for outdoor recreation include population, residence, income, age, price, quality, and recreational opportunity substitutes. (JD)

Use of Prolonged Travel to Improve Pediatric Risk-Adjustment Models

PubMed Central

Lorch, Scott A; Silber, Jeffrey H; Even-Shoshan, Orit; Millman, Andrea

2009-01-01

Objective To determine whether travel variables could explain previously reported differences in lengths of stay (LOS), readmission, or death at children's hospitals versus other hospital types. Data Source Hospital discharge data from Pennsylvania between 1996 and 1998. Study Design A population cohort of children aged 1–17 years with one of 19 common pediatric conditions was created (N=51,855). Regression models were constructed to determine difference for LOS, readmission, or death between children's hospitals and other types of hospitals after including five types of additional illness severity variables to a traditional risk-adjustment model. Principal Findings With the traditional risk-adjustment model, children traveling longer to children's or rural hospitals had longer adjusted LOS and higher readmission rates. Inclusion of either a geocoded travel time variable or a nongeocoded travel distance variable provided the largest reduction in adjusted LOS, adjusted readmission rates, and adjusted mortality rates for children's hospitals and rural hospitals compared with other types of hospitals. Conclusions Adding a travel variable to traditional severity adjustment models may improve the assessment of an individual hospital's pediatric care by reducing systematic differences between different types of hospitals. PMID:19207591

Freeway travel speed calculation model based on ETC transaction data.

PubMed

Weng, Jiancheng; Yuan, Rongliang; Wang, Ru; Wang, Chang

2014-01-01

Real-time traffic flow operation condition of freeway gradually becomes the critical information for the freeway users and managers. In fact, electronic toll collection (ETC) transaction data effectively records operational information of vehicles on freeway, which provides a new method to estimate the travel speed of freeway. First, the paper analyzed the structure of ETC transaction data and presented the data preprocess procedure. Then, a dual-level travel speed calculation model was established under different levels of sample sizes. In order to ensure a sufficient sample size, ETC data of different enter-leave toll plazas pairs which contain more than one road segment were used to calculate the travel speed of every road segment. The reduction coefficient α and reliable weight θ for sample vehicle speed were introduced in the model. Finally, the model was verified by the special designed field experiments which were conducted on several freeways in Beijing at different time periods. The experiments results demonstrated that the average relative error was about 6.5% which means that the freeway travel speed could be estimated by the proposed model accurately. The proposed model is helpful to promote the level of the freeway operation monitoring and the freeway management, as well as to provide useful information for the freeway travelers.

Active travel co-benefits of travel demand management policies that reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-04-01

There is increasing evidence that improved health outcomes may be a significant co-benefit of land use plans and transport policies : that increase active transport (or active travel)walking, biking or other physical activity for the purpose...

Atlanta congestion reduction demonstration. National evaluation : travel demand management (TDM) data test plan.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-01-01

Internet-based Advanced Traveler Information Services (ATIS) provide the urban traveler with estimated travel times based on current roadway congestion. Survey research indicates that the vast majority of current ATIS users are satisfied consumers wh...

Projected Demand and Potential Impacts to the National Airspace System of Autonomous, Electric, On-Demand Small Aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Jeremy C.; Viken, Jeffrey K.; Guerreiro, Nelson M.; Dollyhigh, Samuel M.; Fenbert, James W.; Hartman, Christopher L.; Kwa, Teck-Seng; Moore, Mark D.

2012-01-01

Electric propulsion and autonomy are technology frontiers that offer tremendous potential to achieve low operating costs for small-aircraft. Such technologies enable simple and safe to operate vehicles that could dramatically improve regional transportation accessibility and speed through point-to-point operations. This analysis develops an understanding of the potential traffic volume and National Airspace System (NAS) capacity for small on-demand aircraft operations. Future demand projections use the Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM), a tool suite developed by NASA and the Transportation Laboratory of Virginia Polytechnic Institute. Demand projections from TSAM contain the mode of travel, number of trips and geographic distribution of trips. For this study, the mode of travel can be commercial aircraft, automobile and on-demand aircraft. NASA's Airspace Concept Evaluation System (ACES) is used to assess NAS impact. This simulation takes a schedule that includes all flights: commercial passenger and cargo; conventional General Aviation and on-demand small aircraft, and operates them in the simulated NAS. The results of this analysis projects very large trip numbers for an on-demand air transportation system competitive with automobiles in cost per passenger mile. The significance is this type of air transportation can enhance mobility for communities that currently lack access to commercial air transportation. Another significant finding is that the large numbers of operations can have an impact on the current NAS infrastructure used by commercial airlines and cargo operators, even if on-demand traffic does not use the 28 airports in the Continental U.S. designated as large hubs by the FAA. Some smaller airports will experience greater demand than their current capacity allows and will require upgrading. In addition, in future years as demand grows and vehicle performance improves other non-conventional facilities such as short runways incorporated into

Tour-based model development for TxDOT : implementation steps for the tour-based model design option and the data needs.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-10-01

Travel demand modeling, in recent years, has seen a paradigm shift with an emphasis on analyzing travel at the : individual level rather than using direct statistical projections of aggregate travel demand as in the trip-based : approach. Specificall...

2011 Atlanta, Georgia, Regional Travel Survey | Transportation Secure Data

Science.gov Websites

Center | NREL Atlanta, Georgia, Regional Travel Survey 2011 Atlanta, Georgia, Regional Travel Survey To improve regional travel demand forecasts, the 2011 Regional Travel Survey collected trip data the Atlanta Regional Commission (ARC), the survey was conducted by PTV NuStats, GeoStats, and PG

Development and Evaluation of the Air Travel Stress Scale

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bricker, Jonathan B.

2005-01-01

Despite anecdotal evidence suggesting that air travel is personally demanding, little research has examined air travel stress. To address these issues, the author developed and evaluated the 1st known measure of air travel stress-the Air Travel Stress Scale-in 3 studies. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis indicated 3 components: (a)…

Distributed Generation Market Demand Model | NREL

Science.gov Websites

Demand Model The Distributed Generation Market Demand (dGen) model simulates the potential adoption of distributed energy resources (DERs) for residential, commercial, and industrial entities in the dGen model can help develop deployment forecasts for distributed resources, including sensitivity to

Revisions to the Wharton EFA Automobile Demand Model : The Wharton EFA Motor Vehicle Demand Model (Mark I)

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1980-12-01

The report documents revisions made to the Wharton EFA Automobile Demand Model to produce the Wharton EFA Motor Vehicle Demand Model (Mark I). Equations are reestimated for the total desired stock of autos and for desired shares by size class, includ...

Long-distance travel modeling: proof of concept : research results digest.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-04-01

This research project was established to provide ADOT with direction on the best sources of data and best practices for updating its long-distance personal travel models to better reflect observed travel behavior. Its original intent was to recommend...

Understanding Air Transportation Market Dynamics Using a Search Algorithm for Calibrating Travel Demand and Price

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kumar, Vivek; Horio, Brant M.; DeCicco, Anthony H.; Hasan, Shahab; Stouffer, Virginia L.; Smith, Jeremy C.; Guerreiro, Nelson M.

2015-01-01

This paper presents a search algorithm based framework to calibrate origin-destination (O-D) market specific airline ticket demands and prices for the Air Transportation System (ATS). This framework is used for calibrating an agent based model of the air ticket buy-sell process - Airline Evolutionary Simulation (Airline EVOS) -that has fidelity of detail that accounts for airline and consumer behaviors and the interdependencies they share between themselves and the NAS. More specificially, this algorithm simultaneous calibrates demand and airfares for each O-D market, to within specified threshold of a pre-specified target value. The proposed algorithm is illustrated with market data targets provided by the Transportation System Analysis Model (TSAM) and Airline Origin and Destination Survey (DB1B). Although we specify these models and datasources for this calibration exercise, the methods described in this paper are applicable to calibrating any low-level model of the ATS to some other demand forecast model-based data. We argue that using a calibration algorithm such as the one we present here to synchronize ATS models with specialized forecast demand models, is a powerful tool for establishing credible baseline conditions in experiments analyzing the effects of proposed policy changes to the ATS.

Health hazards of international travel.

PubMed

Cossar, J H; Reid, D

1989-01-01

The growth of travel and the increasing numbers of those affected by travel-related illnesses, some of a serious nature, will cause this subject to demand the attention of the medical profession, the travel trade, travellers themselves and the health authorities of countries receiving tourists. Provision of appropriate advice for the traveller is a shared responsibility, best channelled mainly through travel agencies; it can moreover be shown to be cost-beneficial. Continued monitoring of illness in travellers and provision of information systems geared to this problem and its prevention are fully justified. They should be based on traditional channels of communication and currently-available modern technology, and be readily accessible to medical and related workers. Increased collaboration between medical workers, health educators and those involved in the travel trade would be a positive and useful contribution towards the reduction of illness and discomfort among travellers and the associated expense incurred by the various national health services concerned. There are clearly economic benefits from the development of international tourism, but these have to be balanced in countries accepting tourists by attention to the prevention of illnesses associated with travel.

A Low Cost Traveling Wave Tube for Wireless Communications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vancil, Bernard Kenneth; Wintucky, Edwin G.; Williams, W. D. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Demand for high data rate wireless communications is pushing up amplifier power, bandwidth and frequency requirements. Some systems are using vacuum electron devices again because solid-state power amplifiers are not able to efficiently meet the new requirements. The traveling wave tube is the VED of choice because of its excellent broadband capability as well as high power efficiency and frequency. But TWTs are very expensive on a per watt basis below about 200 watts of output power. We propose a new traveling wave tube that utilizes cathode ray tube construction technology and electrostatic focusing. We believe the tube can be built in quantity for under $1,000 each. We discuss several traveling wave tube slow wave circuits that lend themselves to the new construction. We will present modeling results and data on prototype devices.

Modeling the Commuting Travel Activities within Historic Districts in Chinese Cities

PubMed Central

Yin, Fengjun; Hu, Qizhou

2014-01-01

The primary objective of this study is to analyze the characteristics of commuting activities within the historical districts in cities of China. The impacts of various explanatory variables on commuters' travels are evaluated using the structural equation modeling (SEM) approach. The household survey was conducted in the historical districts in Yangzhou, China. Based on the data, various individual and household attributes were considered exogenous variables, while the subsistence activity characteristics, travel times, numbers of three typical home-based trip chains, trip chains, and travel mode were considered as the endogenous variables. Commuters in our study were classified into two main groups according to their working location, which were the commuters in the historic district and those out of the district. The modeling results show that several individual and household attributes of commuters in historic district have significant impacts on the characteristics of travel activities. Additionally, the characteristics of travel activities within the two groups are quite different, and the contributing factors related to commuting travels are different as well. PMID:25435864

Modeling the commuting travel activities within historic districts in Chinese cities.

PubMed

Ye, Mao; Yu, Miao; Li, Zhibin; Yin, Fengjun; Hu, Qizhou

2014-01-01

The primary objective of this study is to analyze the characteristics of commuting activities within the historical districts in cities of China. The impacts of various explanatory variables on commuters' travels are evaluated using the structural equation modeling (SEM) approach. The household survey was conducted in the historical districts in Yangzhou, China. Based on the data, various individual and household attributes were considered exogenous variables, while the subsistence activity characteristics, travel times, numbers of three typical home-based trip chains, trip chains, and travel mode were considered as the endogenous variables. Commuters in our study were classified into two main groups according to their working location, which were the commuters in the historic district and those out of the district. The modeling results show that several individual and household attributes of commuters in historic district have significant impacts on the characteristics of travel activities. Additionally, the characteristics of travel activities within the two groups are quite different, and the contributing factors related to commuting travels are different as well.

Multi-day activity scheduling reactions to planned activities and future events in a dynamic model of activity-travel behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nijland, Linda; Arentze, Theo; Timmermans, Harry

2014-01-01

Modeling multi-day planning has received scarce attention in activity-based transport demand modeling so far. However, new dynamic activity-based approaches are being developed at the current moment. The frequency and inflexibility of planned activities and events in activity schedules of individuals indicate the importance of incorporating those pre-planned activities in the new generation of dynamic travel demand models. Elaborating and combining previous work on event-driven activity generation, the aim of this paper is to develop and illustrate an extension of a need-based model of activity generation that takes into account possible influences of pre-planned activities and events. This paper describes the theory and shows the results of simulations of the extension. The simulation was conducted for six different activities, and the parameter values used were consistent with an earlier estimation study. The results show that the model works well and that the influences of the parameters are consistent, logical, and have clear interpretations. These findings offer further evidence of face and construct validity to the suggested modeling approach.

Ridesharing: Transportation demand management

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Valdez, R.; Wang, J.; Flynn, C.P.

1989-01-01

The 13 papers in the report deal with the following areas: Comparison of transportation demand management market research study results and transportation management association development in three suburban activity centers; Ten cities' strategies for transportation demand management; Key considerations for developing local government transportation system management programs; First Hill Action Plan: A unique public/private approach to transportation demand management; Comparison of travel behavior before and after the opening of HOV lanes in a suburban travel corridor; Evaluation of Springfield instant carpooling; George Washington Bridge bus-carpool lane: 1-Year Operational Report; Guaranteed Ride Home: An insurance program for HOV users; Evaluation ofmore » Ridefinders and Central Richmond Association's transportation and parking information service; Vanpools: Pricing and market penetration; Cost-effectiveness of private employer ridesharing programs: An employer's assessment; Temporal analysis of handicapped ridership in specialized transportation service: Lexington/Fayette County experience; Characterization of the 'publico' system of Puerto Rico.« less

The substantative knowledge base for travel and tourism: a systems model

Treesearch

David S. Solan

1992-01-01

Strategies for education and professional preparation in travel and tourism have generally been based in traditional tourism-related disciplines providing somewhat narrow perspectives of the tourism phenomenon. The need exists for models that provide comprehensive, holistic perspectives of travel and tourism. This paper presents one such systems model showing that...

2000-2001 California statewide household travel survey. Final report

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2002-06-01

The California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) maintains a statewide database of household socioeconomic and travel information, which is used in regional and statewide travel demand forecasting. The 2000-2001 California Statewide Household T...

Integrated travel network model for studying epidemics: Interplay between journeys and epidemic.

PubMed

Ruan, Zhongyuan; Wang, Chaoqing; Hui, Pak Ming; Liu, Zonghua

2015-06-15

The ease of travelling between cities has contributed much to globalization. Yet, it poses a threat on epidemic outbreaks. It is of great importance for network science and health control to understand the impact of frequent journeys on epidemics. We stress that a new framework of modelling that takes a traveller's viewpoint is needed. Such integrated travel network (ITN) model should incorporate the diversity among links as dictated by the distances between cities and different speeds of different modes of transportation, diversity among nodes as dictated by the population and the ease of travelling due to infrastructures and economic development of a city, and round-trip journeys to targeted destinations via the paths of shortest travel times typical of human journeys. An example is constructed for 116 cities in China with populations over one million that are connected by high-speed train services and highways. Epidemic spread on the constructed network is studied. It is revealed both numerically and theoretically that the traveling speed and frequency are important factors of epidemic spreading. Depending on the infection rate, increasing the traveling speed would result in either an enhanced or suppressed epidemic, while increasing the traveling frequency enhances the epidemic spreading.

Teaching Aggregate Demand and Supply Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wells, Graeme

2010-01-01

The author analyzes the inflation-targeting model that underlies recent textbook expositions of the aggregate demand-aggregate supply approach used in introductory courses in macroeconomics. He shows how numerical simulations of a model with inflation inertia can be used as a tool to help students understand adjustments in response to demand and…

Development of Ensemble Model Based Water Demand Forecasting Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwon, Hyun-Han; So, Byung-Jin; Kim, Seong-Hyeon; Kim, Byung-Seop

2014-05-01

In recent years, Smart Water Grid (SWG) concept has globally emerged over the last decade and also gained significant recognition in South Korea. Especially, there has been growing interest in water demand forecast and optimal pump operation and this has led to various studies regarding energy saving and improvement of water supply reliability. Existing water demand forecasting models are categorized into two groups in view of modeling and predicting their behavior in time series. One is to consider embedded patterns such as seasonality, periodicity and trends, and the other one is an autoregressive model that is using short memory Markovian processes (Emmanuel et al., 2012). The main disadvantage of the abovementioned model is that there is a limit to predictability of water demands of about sub-daily scale because the system is nonlinear. In this regard, this study aims to develop a nonlinear ensemble model for hourly water demand forecasting which allow us to estimate uncertainties across different model classes. The proposed model is consist of two parts. One is a multi-model scheme that is based on combination of independent prediction model. The other one is a cross validation scheme named Bagging approach introduced by Brieman (1996) to derive weighting factors corresponding to individual models. Individual forecasting models that used in this study are linear regression analysis model, polynomial regression, multivariate adaptive regression splines(MARS), SVM(support vector machine). The concepts are demonstrated through application to observed from water plant at several locations in the South Korea. Keywords: water demand, non-linear model, the ensemble forecasting model, uncertainty. Acknowledgements This subject is supported by Korea Ministry of Environment as "Projects for Developing Eco-Innovation Technologies (GT-11-G-02-001-6)

Tests of transferability and validation of disaggregate behavioral demand models for evaluating the energy conservation potential of alternative transportation policies in nine US cities. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1977-04-01

A transportation policy analysis methodology described in Guidelines for Travel Demand Analyses of Program Measures to Promote Carpools, Vanpools, and Public Transportation, November, 1976 (EAPA 4:1921) is demonstrated. The results reported build upon the two levels of analysis capabilities (a fully calibrated and operational computer package based on a set of disaggregate travel demand models that were estimated on a random sample of urban travelers and a manual procedure or sketch planning pivot-point version of the above methodology) and have undertaken to accomplish the following objectives: transferability, testing the manual approach on actual applications, and validating the method. The firstmore » objective was investigated by examining and comparing disaggregate models that were estimated in 7 US cities by eight different organizations. The next two objectives were investigated using separate case studies: the Washington, DC, Shirley Highway preferential transit and carpool lanes; the Portland, Oregon, Banfield Highway Expressway preferential transit and carpool lanes; the Los Angeles, Santa Monica Freeway preferential Diamond Lane and ramp metering facilities for transit and carpools; the Minneapolis, express bus on metered freeway project; and the Portland, Oregon, carpool matching and promotion programs for the general public and for employer-based groups. Principal findings are summarized and results consolidated. (MCW)« less

Evaluation of origin-destination matrix estimation techniques to support aspects of traffic modeling.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-05-01

Travel demand forecasting models are used to predict future traffic volumes to evaluate : roadway improvement alternatives. Each of the metropolitan planning organizations (MPO) in : Alabama maintains a travel demand model to support planning efforts...

A Small Aircraft Transportation System (SATS) Demand Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Long, Dou; Lee, David; Johnson, Jesse; Kostiuk, Peter; Yackovetsky, Robert (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The Small Aircraft Transportation System (SATS) demand modeling is a tool that will be useful for decision-makers to analyze SATS demands in both airport and airspace. We constructed a series of models following the general top-down, modular principles in systems engineering. There are three principal models, SATS Airport Demand Model (SATS-ADM), SATS Flight Demand Model (SATS-FDM), and LMINET-SATS. SATS-ADM models SATS operations, by aircraft type, from the forecasts in fleet, configuration and performance, utilization, and traffic mixture. Given the SATS airport operations such as the ones generated by SATS-ADM, SATS-FDM constructs the SATS origin and destination (O&D) traffic flow based on the solution of the gravity model, from which it then generates SATS flights using the Monte Carlo simulation based on the departure time-of-day profile. LMINET-SATS, an extension of LMINET, models SATS demands at airspace and airport by all aircraft operations in US The models use parameters to provide the user with flexibility and ease of use to generate SATS demand for different scenarios. Several case studies are included to illustrate the use of the models, which are useful to identify the need for a new air traffic management system to cope with SATS.

Traveling waves in an optimal velocity model of freeway traffic.

PubMed

Berg, P; Woods, A

2001-03-01

Car-following models provide both a tool to describe traffic flow and algorithms for autonomous cruise control systems. Recently developed optimal velocity models contain a relaxation term that assigns a desirable speed to each headway and a response time over which drivers adjust to optimal velocity conditions. These models predict traffic breakdown phenomena analogous to real traffic instabilities. In order to deepen our understanding of these models, in this paper, we examine the transition from a linear stable stream of cars of one headway into a linear stable stream of a second headway. Numerical results of the governing equations identify a range of transition phenomena, including monotonic and oscillating travelling waves and a time- dependent dispersive adjustment wave. However, for certain conditions, we find that the adjustment takes the form of a nonlinear traveling wave from the upstream headway to a third, intermediate headway, followed by either another traveling wave or a dispersive wave further downstream matching the downstream headway. This intermediate value of the headway is selected such that the nonlinear traveling wave is the fastest stable traveling wave which is observed to develop in the numerical calculations. The development of these nonlinear waves, connecting linear stable flows of two different headways, is somewhat reminiscent of stop-start waves in congested flow on freeways. The different types of adjustments are classified in a phase diagram depending on the upstream and downstream headway and the response time of the model. The results have profound consequences for autonomous cruise control systems. For an autocade of both identical and different vehicles, the control system itself may trigger formations of nonlinear, steep wave transitions. Further information is available [Y. Sugiyama, Traffic and Granular Flow (World Scientific, Singapore, 1995), p. 137].

Traveling waves in an optimal velocity model of freeway traffic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berg, Peter; Woods, Andrew

2001-03-01

Car-following models provide both a tool to describe traffic flow and algorithms for autonomous cruise control systems. Recently developed optimal velocity models contain a relaxation term that assigns a desirable speed to each headway and a response time over which drivers adjust to optimal velocity conditions. These models predict traffic breakdown phenomena analogous to real traffic instabilities. In order to deepen our understanding of these models, in this paper, we examine the transition from a linear stable stream of cars of one headway into a linear stable stream of a second headway. Numerical results of the governing equations identify a range of transition phenomena, including monotonic and oscillating travelling waves and a time- dependent dispersive adjustment wave. However, for certain conditions, we find that the adjustment takes the form of a nonlinear traveling wave from the upstream headway to a third, intermediate headway, followed by either another traveling wave or a dispersive wave further downstream matching the downstream headway. This intermediate value of the headway is selected such that the nonlinear traveling wave is the fastest stable traveling wave which is observed to develop in the numerical calculations. The development of these nonlinear waves, connecting linear stable flows of two different headways, is somewhat reminiscent of stop-start waves in congested flow on freeways. The different types of adjustments are classified in a phase diagram depending on the upstream and downstream headway and the response time of the model. The results have profound consequences for autonomous cruise control systems. For an autocade of both identical and different vehicles, the control system itself may trigger formations of nonlinear, steep wave transitions. Further information is available [Y. Sugiyama, Traffic and Granular Flow (World Scientific, Singapore, 1995), p. 137].

SALSA3D: A Tomographic Model of Compressional Wave Slowness in the Earth’s Mantle for Improved Travel-Time Prediction and Travel-Time Prediction Uncertainty

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ballard, Sanford; Hipp, James R.; Begnaud, Michael L.

The task of monitoring the Earth for nuclear explosions relies heavily on seismic data to detect, locate, and characterize suspected nuclear tests. In this study, motivated by the need to locate suspected explosions as accurately and precisely as possible, we developed a tomographic model of the compressional wave slowness in the Earth’s mantle with primary focus on the accuracy and precision of travel-time predictions for P and Pn ray paths through the model. Path-dependent travel-time prediction uncertainties are obtained by computing the full 3D model covariance matrix and then integrating slowness variance and covariance along ray paths from source tomore » receiver. Path-dependent travel-time prediction uncertainties reflect the amount of seismic data that was used in tomography with very low values for paths represented by abundant data in the tomographic data set and very high values for paths through portions of the model that were poorly sampled by the tomography data set. The pattern of travel-time prediction uncertainty is a direct result of the off-diagonal terms of the model covariance matrix and underscores the importance of incorporating the full model covariance matrix in the determination of travel-time prediction uncertainty. In addition, the computed pattern of uncertainty differs significantly from that of 1D distance-dependent travel-time uncertainties computed using traditional methods, which are only appropriate for use with travel times computed through 1D velocity models.« less

SALSA3D: A Tomographic Model of Compressional Wave Slowness in the Earth’s Mantle for Improved Travel-Time Prediction and Travel-Time Prediction Uncertainty

DOE PAGES

Ballard, Sanford; Hipp, James R.; Begnaud, Michael L.; ...

2016-10-11

The task of monitoring the Earth for nuclear explosions relies heavily on seismic data to detect, locate, and characterize suspected nuclear tests. In this study, motivated by the need to locate suspected explosions as accurately and precisely as possible, we developed a tomographic model of the compressional wave slowness in the Earth’s mantle with primary focus on the accuracy and precision of travel-time predictions for P and Pn ray paths through the model. Path-dependent travel-time prediction uncertainties are obtained by computing the full 3D model covariance matrix and then integrating slowness variance and covariance along ray paths from source tomore » receiver. Path-dependent travel-time prediction uncertainties reflect the amount of seismic data that was used in tomography with very low values for paths represented by abundant data in the tomographic data set and very high values for paths through portions of the model that were poorly sampled by the tomography data set. The pattern of travel-time prediction uncertainty is a direct result of the off-diagonal terms of the model covariance matrix and underscores the importance of incorporating the full model covariance matrix in the determination of travel-time prediction uncertainty. In addition, the computed pattern of uncertainty differs significantly from that of 1D distance-dependent travel-time uncertainties computed using traditional methods, which are only appropriate for use with travel times computed through 1D velocity models.« less

A Simultaneous Equation Demand Model for Block Rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agthe, Donald E.; Billings, R. Bruce; Dobra, John L.; Raffiee, Kambiz

1986-01-01

This paper examines the problem of simultaneous-equations bias in estimation of the water demand function under an increasing block rate structure. The Hausman specification test is used to detect the presence of simultaneous-equations bias arising from correlation of the price measures with the regression error term in the results of a previously published study of water demand in Tucson, Arizona. An alternative simultaneous equation model is proposed for estimating the elasticity of demand in the presence of block rate pricing structures and availability of service charges. This model is used to reestimate the price and rate premium elasticities of demand in Tucson, Arizona for both the usual long-run static model and for a simple short-run demand model. The results from these simultaneous equation models are consistent with a priori expectations and are unbiased.

Optimization of hybrid model on hajj travel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cahyandari, R.; Ariany, R. L.; Sukono

2018-03-01

Hajj travel insurance is an insurance product offered by the insurance company in preparing funds to perform the pilgrimage. This insurance product helps would-be pilgrims to set aside a fund of saving hajj with regularly, but also provides funds of profit sharing (mudharabah) and insurance protection. Scheme of insurance product fund management is largely using the hybrid model, which is the fund from would-be pilgrims will be divided into three account management, that is personal account, tabarru’, and ujrah. Scheme of hybrid model on hajj travel insurance was already discussed at the earlier paper with titled “The Hybrid Model Algorithm on Sharia Insurance”, taking the example case of Mitra Mabrur Plus product from Bumiputera company. On these advanced paper, will be made the previous optimization model design, with partition of benefit the tabarru’ account. Benefits such as compensation for 40 critical illness which initially only for participants of insurance only, on optimization is intended for participants of the insurance and his heir, also to benefit the hospital bills. Meanwhile, the benefits of death benefit is given if the participant is fixed die.

Reduced rank models for travel time estimation of low order mode pulses.

PubMed

Chandrayadula, Tarun K; Wage, Kathleen E; Worcester, Peter F; Dzieciuch, Matthew A; Mercer, James A; Andrew, Rex K; Howe, Bruce M

2013-10-01

Mode travel time estimation in the presence of internal waves (IWs) is a challenging problem. IWs perturb the sound speed, which results in travel time wander and mode scattering. A standard approach to travel time estimation is to pulse compress the broadband signal, pick the peak of the compressed time series, and average the peak time over multiple receptions to reduce variance. The peak-picking approach implicitly assumes there is a single strong arrival and does not perform well when there are multiple arrivals due to scattering. This article presents a statistical model for the scattered mode arrivals and uses the model to design improved travel time estimators. The model is based on an Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of the mode time series. Range-dependent simulations and data from the Long-range Ocean Acoustic Propagation Experiment (LOAPEX) indicate that the modes are represented by a small number of EOFs. The reduced-rank EOF model is used to construct a travel time estimator based on the Matched Subspace Detector (MSD). Analysis of simulation and experimental data show that the MSDs are more robust to IW scattering than peak picking. The simulation analysis also highlights how IWs affect the mode excitation by the source.

Using an agent-based model to simulate children's active travel to school.

PubMed

Yang, Yong; Diez-Roux, Ana V

2013-05-26

Despite the multiple advantages of active travel to school, only a small percentage of US children and adolescents walk or bicycle to school. Intervention studies are in a relatively early stage and evidence of their effectiveness over long periods is limited. The purpose of this study was to illustrate the utility of agent-based models in exploring how various policies may influence children's active travel to school. An agent-based model was developed to simulate children's school travel behavior within a hypothetical city. The model was used to explore the plausible implications of policies targeting two established barriers to active school travel: long distance to school and traffic safety. The percent of children who walk to school was compared for various scenarios. To maximize the percent of children who walk to school the school locations should be evenly distributed over space and children should be assigned to the closest school. In the case of interventions to improve traffic safety, targeting a smaller area around the school with greater intensity may be more effective than targeting a larger area with less intensity. Despite the challenges they present, agent based models are a useful complement to other analytical strategies in studying the plausible impact of various policies on active travel to school.

Solidarity by demand? Exit and voice in international medical travel - the case of Indonesia.

PubMed

Ormond, Meghann

2015-01-01

Globally, more patients are intentionally travelling abroad as consumers for medical care. However, while scholars have begun to examine international medical travel's (IMT) impacts on the people and places that receive medical travellers, study of its impacts on medical travellers' home contexts has been negligible and largely speculative. While proponents praise IMT's potential to make home health systems more responsive to the needs of market-savvy healthcare consumers, critics identify it as a way to further de-politicise the satisfaction of healthcare needs. This article draws from work on political consumerism, health advocacy and social movements to argue for a reframing of IMT not as a 'one-off' statement about or an event external to struggles over access, rights and recognition within medical travellers' home health systems but rather as one of a range of critical forms of on-going engagement embedded within these struggles. To do this, the limited extant empirical work addressing domestic impacts of IMT is reviewed and a case study of Indonesian medical travel to Malaysia is presented. The case study material draws from 85 interviews undertaken in 2007-08 and 2012 with Indonesian and Malaysian respondents involved in IMT as care recipients, formal and informal care-providers, intermediaries, promoters and policy-makers. Evidence from the review and case study suggests that IMT may effect political and social change within medical travellers' home contexts at micro and macro levels by altering the perspectives, habits, expectations and accountability of, and complicity among, medical travellers, their families, communities, formal and informal intermediaries, and medical providers both within and beyond the container of the nation-state. Impacts are conditioned by the ideological foundations underpinning home political and social systems, the status of a medical traveller's ailment or therapy, and the existence of organised support for recognition and

Integrated travel network model for studying epidemics: Interplay between journeys and epidemic

PubMed Central

Ruan, Zhongyuan; Wang, Chaoqing; Ming Hui, Pak; Liu, Zonghua

2015-01-01

The ease of travelling between cities has contributed much to globalization. Yet, it poses a threat on epidemic outbreaks. It is of great importance for network science and health control to understand the impact of frequent journeys on epidemics. We stress that a new framework of modelling that takes a traveller’s viewpoint is needed. Such integrated travel network (ITN) model should incorporate the diversity among links as dictated by the distances between cities and different speeds of different modes of transportation, diversity among nodes as dictated by the population and the ease of travelling due to infrastructures and economic development of a city, and round-trip journeys to targeted destinations via the paths of shortest travel times typical of human journeys. An example is constructed for 116 cities in China with populations over one million that are connected by high-speed train services and highways. Epidemic spread on the constructed network is studied. It is revealed both numerically and theoretically that the traveling speed and frequency are important factors of epidemic spreading. Depending on the infection rate, increasing the traveling speed would result in either an enhanced or suppressed epidemic, while increasing the traveling frequency enhances the epidemic spreading. PMID:26073191

Integrated travel network model for studying epidemics: Interplay between journeys and epidemic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruan, Zhongyuan; Wang, Chaoqing; Ming Hui, Pak; Liu, Zonghua

2015-06-01

The ease of travelling between cities has contributed much to globalization. Yet, it poses a threat on epidemic outbreaks. It is of great importance for network science and health control to understand the impact of frequent journeys on epidemics. We stress that a new framework of modelling that takes a traveller’s viewpoint is needed. Such integrated travel network (ITN) model should incorporate the diversity among links as dictated by the distances between cities and different speeds of different modes of transportation, diversity among nodes as dictated by the population and the ease of travelling due to infrastructures and economic development of a city, and round-trip journeys to targeted destinations via the paths of shortest travel times typical of human journeys. An example is constructed for 116 cities in China with populations over one million that are connected by high-speed train services and highways. Epidemic spread on the constructed network is studied. It is revealed both numerically and theoretically that the traveling speed and frequency are important factors of epidemic spreading. Depending on the infection rate, increasing the traveling speed would result in either an enhanced or suppressed epidemic, while increasing the traveling frequency enhances the epidemic spreading.

Multilevel Modeling and Policy Development: Guidelines and Applications to Medical Travel.

PubMed

Garcia-Garzon, Eduardo; Zhukovsky, Peter; Haller, Elisa; Plakolm, Sara; Fink, David; Petrova, Dafina; Mahalingam, Vaishali; Menezes, Igor G; Ruggeri, Kai

2016-01-01

Medical travel has expanded rapidly in recent years, resulting in new markets and increased access to medical care. Whereas several studies investigated the motives of individuals seeking healthcare abroad, the conventional analytical approach is limited by substantial caveats. Classical techniques as found in the literature cannot provide sufficient insight due to the nested nature of data generated. The application of adequate analytical techniques, specifically multilevel modeling, is scarce to non-existent in the context of medical travel. This study introduces the guidelines for application of multilevel techniques in public health research by presenting an application of multilevel modeling in analyzing the decision-making patterns of potential medical travelers. Benefits and potential limitations are discussed.

Multilevel Modeling and Policy Development: Guidelines and Applications to Medical Travel

PubMed Central

Garcia-Garzon, Eduardo; Zhukovsky, Peter; Haller, Elisa; Plakolm, Sara; Fink, David; Petrova, Dafina; Mahalingam, Vaishali; Menezes, Igor G.; Ruggeri, Kai

2016-01-01

Medical travel has expanded rapidly in recent years, resulting in new markets and increased access to medical care. Whereas several studies investigated the motives of individuals seeking healthcare abroad, the conventional analytical approach is limited by substantial caveats. Classical techniques as found in the literature cannot provide sufficient insight due to the nested nature of data generated. The application of adequate analytical techniques, specifically multilevel modeling, is scarce to non-existent in the context of medical travel. This study introduces the guidelines for application of multilevel techniques in public health research by presenting an application of multilevel modeling in analyzing the decision-making patterns of potential medical travelers. Benefits and potential limitations are discussed. PMID:27252672

Absolute instabilities of travelling wave solutions in a Keller-Segel model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, P. N.; van Heijster, P.; Marangell, R.

2017-11-01

We investigate the spectral stability of travelling wave solutions in a Keller-Segel model of bacterial chemotaxis with a logarithmic chemosensitivity function and a constant, sublinear, and linear consumption rate. Linearising around the travelling wave solutions, we locate the essential and absolute spectrum of the associated linear operators and find that all travelling wave solutions have parts of the essential spectrum in the right half plane. However, we show that in the case of constant or sublinear consumption there exists a range of parameters such that the absolute spectrum is contained in the open left half plane and the essential spectrum can thus be weighted into the open left half plane. For the constant and sublinear consumption rate models we also determine critical parameter values for which the absolute spectrum crosses into the right half plane, indicating the onset of an absolute instability of the travelling wave solution. We observe that this crossing always occurs off of the real axis.

Modeling demand for public transit services in rural areas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Attaluri, P.; Seneviratne, P.N.; Javid, M.

1997-05-01

Accurate estimates of demand are critical for planning, designing, and operating public transit systems. Previous research has demonstrated that the expected demand in rural areas is a function of both demographic and transit system variables. Numerous models have been proposed to describe the relationship between the aforementioned variables. However, most of them are site specific and their validity over time and space is not reported or perhaps has not been tested. Moreover, input variables in some cases are extremely difficult to quantify. In this article, the estimation of demand using the generalized linear modeling technique is discussed. Two separate models,more » one for fixed-route and another for demand-responsive services, are presented. These models, calibrated with data from systems in nine different states, are used to demonstrate the appropriateness and validity of generalized linear models compared to the regression models. They explain over 70% of the variation in expected demand for fixed-route services and 60% of the variation in expected demand for demand-responsive services. It was found that the models are spatially transferable and that data for calibration are easily obtainable.« less

Travelers' Diarrhea and Other Gastrointestinal Symptoms Among Boston-Area International Travelers

PubMed Central

Stoney, Rhett J.; Han, Pauline V.; Barnett, Elizabeth D.; Wilson, Mary E.; Jentes, Emily S.; Benoit, Christine M.; MacLeod, William B.; Hamer, Davidson H.; Chen, Lin H.

2017-01-01

This prospective cohort study describes travelers' diarrhea (TD) and non-TD gastrointestinal (GI) symptoms among international travelers from the Boston area, the association of TD with traveler characteristics and dietary practices, use of prescribed antidiarrheal medications, and the impact of TD and non-TD GI symptoms on planned activities during and after travel. We included adults who received a pre-travel consultation at three Boston-area travel clinics and who completed a three-part survey: pre-travel, during travel, and post-travel (2–4 weeks after return). TD was defined as self-reported diarrhea with or without nausea/vomiting, abdominal pain, or fever. Demographic and travel characteristics were evaluated by χ2 test for categorical and Wilcoxon rank-sum test for continuous variables. Analysis of dietary practices used logistic generalized estimating equation models or logistic regression models. Of 628 travelers, 208 (33%) experienced TD and 45 (7%) experienced non-TD GI symptoms. Of 208 with TD, 128 (64%), 71 (36%), and 123 (62%) were prescribed ciprofloxacin, azithromycin, and/or loperamide before travel, respectively. Thirty-nine (36%) of 108 took ciprofloxacin, 20 (38%) of 55 took azithromycin, and 28 (28%) of 99 took loperamide during travel. Of 172 with TD during travel, 24% stopped planned activities, and 2% were hospitalized. Of 31 with non-TD GI symptoms during travel, six (13%) stopped planned activities. International travelers continue to experience diarrhea and other GI symptoms, resulting in disruption of planned activities and healthcare visits for some. Although these illnesses resulted in interruption of travel plans, a relatively small proportion took prescribed antibiotics. PMID:28719282

Travelers' Diarrhea and Other Gastrointestinal Symptoms Among Boston-Area International Travelers.

PubMed

Stoney, Rhett J; Han, Pauline V; Barnett, Elizabeth D; Wilson, Mary E; Jentes, Emily S; Benoit, Christine M; MacLeod, William B; Hamer, Davidson H; Chen, Lin H

2017-06-01

AbstractThis prospective cohort study describes travelers' diarrhea (TD) and non-TD gastrointestinal (GI) symptoms among international travelers from the Boston area, the association of TD with traveler characteristics and dietary practices, use of prescribed antidiarrheal medications, and the impact of TD and non-TD GI symptoms on planned activities during and after travel. We included adults who received a pre-travel consultation at three Boston-area travel clinics and who completed a three-part survey: pre-travel, during travel, and post-travel (2-4 weeks after return). TD was defined as self-reported diarrhea with or without nausea/vomiting, abdominal pain, or fever. Demographic and travel characteristics were evaluated by χ 2 test for categorical and Wilcoxon rank-sum test for continuous variables. Analysis of dietary practices used logistic generalized estimating equation models or logistic regression models. Of 628 travelers, 208 (33%) experienced TD and 45 (7%) experienced non-TD GI symptoms. Of 208 with TD, 128 (64%), 71 (36%), and 123 (62%) were prescribed ciprofloxacin, azithromycin, and/or loperamide before travel, respectively. Thirty-nine (36%) of 108 took ciprofloxacin, 20 (38%) of 55 took azithromycin, and 28 (28%) of 99 took loperamide during travel. Of 172 with TD during travel, 24% stopped planned activities, and 2% were hospitalized. Of 31 with non-TD GI symptoms during travel, six (13%) stopped planned activities. International travelers continue to experience diarrhea and other GI symptoms, resulting in disruption of planned activities and healthcare visits for some. Although these illnesses resulted in interruption of travel plans, a relatively small proportion took prescribed antibiotics.

Standardized training in nurse model travel clinics.

PubMed

Sofarelli, Theresa A; Ricks, Jane H; Anand, Rahul; Hale, Devon C

2011-01-01

International travel plays a significant role in the emergence and redistribution of major human diseases. The importance of travel medicine clinics for preventing morbidity and mortality has been increasingly appreciated, although few studies have thus far examined the management and staff training strategies that result in successful travel-clinic operations. Here, we describe an example of travel-clinic operation and management coordinated through the University of Utah School of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases. This program, which involves eight separate clinics distributed statewide, functions both to provide patient consult and care services, as well as medical provider training and continuing medical education (CME). Initial training, the use of standardized forms and protocols, routine chart reviews and monthly continuing education meetings are the distinguishing attributes of this program. An Infectious Disease team consisting of one medical doctor (MD) and a physician assistant (PA) act as consultants to travel nurses who comprise the majority of clinic staff. Eight clinics distributed throughout the state of Utah serve approximately 6,000 travelers a year. Pre-travel medical services are provided by 11 nurses, including 10 registered nurses (RNs) and 1 licensed practical nurse (LPN). This trained nursing staff receives continuing travel medical education and participate in the training of new providers. All nurses have completed a full training program and 7 of the 11 (64%) of clinic nursing staff serve more than 10 patients a week. Quality assurance measures show that approximately 0.5% of charts reviewed contain a vaccine or prescription error which require patient notification for correction. Using an initial training program, standardized patient intake forms, vaccine and prescription protocols, preprinted prescriptions, and regular CME, highly trained nurses at travel clinics are able to provide standardized pre-travel care to

Small traveling clusters in attractive and repulsive Hamiltonian mean-field models.

PubMed

Barré, Julien; Yamaguchi, Yoshiyuki Y

2009-03-01

Long-lasting small traveling clusters are studied in the Hamiltonian mean-field model by comparing between attractive and repulsive interactions. Nonlinear Landau damping theory predicts that a Gaussian momentum distribution on a spatially homogeneous background permits the existence of traveling clusters in the repulsive case, as in plasma systems, but not in the attractive case. Nevertheless, extending the analysis to a two-parameter family of momentum distributions of Fermi-Dirac type, we theoretically predict the existence of traveling clusters in the attractive case; these findings are confirmed by direct N -body numerical simulations. The parameter region with the traveling clusters is much reduced in the attractive case with respect to the repulsive case.

People's Risk Recognition Preceding Evacuation and Its Role in Demand Modeling and Planning.

PubMed

Urata, Junji; Pel, Adam J

2018-05-01

Evacuation planning and management involves estimating the travel demand in the event that such action is required. This is usually done as a function of people's decision to evacuate, which we show is strongly linked to their risk awareness. We use an empirical data set, which shows tsunami evacuation behavior, to demonstrate that risk recognition is not synonymous with objective risk, but is instead determined by a combination of factors including risk education, information, and sociodemographics, and that it changes dynamically over time. Based on these findings, we formulate an ordered logit model to describe risk recognition combined with a latent class model to describe evacuation choices. Our proposed evacuation choice model along with a risk recognition class can evaluate quantitatively the influence of disaster mitigation measures, risk education, and risk information. The results obtained from the risk recognition model show that risk information has a greater impact in the sense that people recognize their high risk. The results of the evacuation choice model show that people who are unaware of their risk take a longer time to evacuate. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Traveling waves in a continuum model of 1D schools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oza, Anand; Kanso, Eva; Shelley, Michael

2017-11-01

We construct and analyze a continuum model of a 1D school of flapping swimmers. Our starting point is a delay differential equation that models the interaction between a swimmer and its upstream neighbors' wakes, which is motivated by recent experiments in the Applied Math Lab at NYU. We coarse-grain the evolution equations and derive PDEs for the swimmer density and variables describing the upstream wake. We study the equations both analytically and numerically, and find that a uniform density of swimmers destabilizes into a traveling wave. Our model makes a number of predictions about the properties of such traveling waves, and sheds light on the role of hydrodynamics in mediating the structure of swimming schools.

Route-choice modeling using GPS-based travel surveys.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-06-01

The advent of GPS-based travel surveys offers an opportunity to develop empirically-rich route-choice models. However, the GPS traces must first be mapped to the roadway network, map-matching, to identify the network-links actually traversed. For thi...

Development of an urban truck travel model for the Phoenix metropolitan area

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1992-02-01

The primary objectives of the Phoenix urban truck travel model project were to conduct a travel survey of commercial vehicles operating within the Phoenix metropolitan area and to use the data collected in this survey to develop commerial vehicle tri...

Comparative benefit of malaria chemoprophylaxis modelled in United Kingdom travellers.

PubMed

Toovey, Stephen; Nieforth, Keith; Smith, Patrick; Schlagenhauf, Patricia; Adamcova, Miriam; Tatt, Iain; Tomianovic, Danitza; Schnetzler, Gabriel

2014-01-01

Chemoprophylaxis against falciparum malaria is recommended for travellers from non-endemic countries to malarious destinations, but debate continues on benefit, especially with regard to mefloquine. Quantification of benefit for travellers from the United Kingdom (UK) was modelled to assist clinical and public health decision making. The model was constructed utilising: World Tourism Organization data showing total number of arrivals from the UK in countries with moderate or high malaria risk; data from a retrospective UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) drug utilisation study; additional information on chemoprophylaxis, case fatality and tolerability were derived from the travel medicine literature. Chemoprophylaxis with the following agents was considered: atovaquone-proguanil (AP), chloroquine with and without proguanil (C ± P), doxycycline (Dx), mefloquine (Mq). The model was validated for the most recent year with temporally matched datasets for UK travel destinations and imported malaria (2007) against UK Health Protection Agency data on imported malaria. The median (mean) duration of chemoprophylaxis for each agent in weeks (CPRD) was: AP 3.3 (3.5), C ± P 9 (12.1), Dx 8 (10.3), Mq 9 (12.3): the maximum duration of use of all regimens was 52 weeks. The model correctly predicted falciparum malaria deaths and gave a robust estimate of total cases--model: 5 deaths from 1118 cases; UK Health Protection Agency: 5 deaths from 1153 cases. The number needed to take chemoprophylaxis (NNP) to prevent a case of malaria considered against the 'background' reported incidence in non-users of chemoprophylaxis deemed in need of chemoprophylaxis was: C ± P 272, Dx 269, Mq 260, AP 252; the NNP to prevent a UK traveller malaria death was: C ± P 62613, Dx 61923, Mq 59973, AP 58059; increasing the 'background' rate by 50% yielded NNPs of: C ± P 176, Dx 175, Mq 171, AP 168. The impact of substituting atovaquone-proguanil for all mefloquine usage resulted in a 2

Understanding Activity Engagement Across Weekdays and Weekend Days: A Multivariate Multiple Discrete-Continuous Modeling Approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Garikapati, Venu; Astroza, Sebastian; Bhat, Prerna C.

This paper is motivated by the increasing recognition that modeling activity-travel demand for a single day of the week, as is done in virtually all travel forecasting models, may be inadequate in capturing underlying processes that govern activity-travel scheduling behavior. The considerable variability in daily travel suggests that there are important complementary relationships and competing tradeoffs involved in scheduling and allocating time to various activities across days of the week. Both limited survey data availability and methodological challenges in modeling week-long activity-travel schedules have precluded the development of multi-day activity-travel demand models. With passive and technology-based data collection methods increasinglymore » in vogue, the collection of multi-day travel data may become increasingly commonplace in the years ahead. This paper addresses the methodological challenge associated with modeling multi-day activity-travel demand by formulating a multivariate multiple discrete-continuous probit (MDCP) model system. The comprehensive framework ties together two MDCP model components, one corresponding to weekday time allocation and the other to weekend activity-time allocation. By tying the two MDCP components together, the model system also captures relationships in activity-time allocation between weekdays on the one hand and weekend days on the other. Model estimation on a week-long travel diary data set from the United Kingdom shows that there are significant inter-relationships between weekdays and weekend days in activity-travel scheduling behavior. The model system presented in this paper may serve as a higher-level multi-day activity scheduler in conjunction with existing daily activity-based travel models.« less

Modeling chloride transport using travel time distributions at Plynlimon, Wales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benettin, Paolo; Kirchner, James W.; Rinaldo, Andrea; Botter, Gianluca

2015-05-01

Here we present a theoretical interpretation of high-frequency, high-quality tracer time series from the Hafren catchment at Plynlimon in mid-Wales. We make use of the formulation of transport by travel time distributions to model chloride transport originating from atmospheric deposition and compute catchment-scale travel time distributions. The relevance of the approach lies in the explanatory power of the chosen tools, particularly to highlight hydrologic processes otherwise clouded by the integrated nature of the measured outflux signal. The analysis reveals the key role of residual storages that are poorly visible in the hydrological response, but are shown to strongly affect water quality dynamics. A significant accuracy in reproducing data is shown by our calibrated model. A detailed representation of catchment-scale travel time distributions has been derived, including the time evolution of the overall dispersion processes (which can be expressed in terms of time-varying storage sampling functions). Mean computed travel times span a broad range of values (from 80 to 800 days) depending on the catchment state. Results also suggest that, in the average, discharge waters are younger than storage water. The model proves able to capture high-frequency fluctuations in the measured chloride concentrations, which are broadly explained by the sharp transition between groundwaters and faster flows originating from topsoil layers. This article was corrected on 22 JUN 2015. See the end of the full text for details.

Traveling Salesman Problem: A Foveating Pyramid Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pizlo, Zygmunt; Stefanov, Emil; Saalweachter, John; Li, Zheng; Haxhimusa, Yll; Kropatsch, Walter G.

2006-01-01

We tested human performance on the Euclidean Traveling Salesman Problem using problems with 6-50 cities. Results confirmed our earlier findings that: (a) the time of solving a problem is proportional to the number of cities, and (b) the solution error grows very slowly with the number of cities. We formulated a new version of a pyramid model. The…

A longitudinal test of the demand-control model using specific job demands and specific job control.

PubMed

de Jonge, Jan; van Vegchel, Natasja; Shimazu, Akihito; Schaufeli, Wilmar; Dormann, Christian

2010-06-01

Supportive studies of the demand-control (DC) model were more likely to measure specific demands combined with a corresponding aspect of control. A longitudinal test of Karasek's (Adm Sci Q. 24:285-308, 1) job strain hypothesis including specific measures of job demands and job control, and both self-report and objectively recorded well-being. Job strain hypothesis was tested among 267 health care employees from a two-wave Dutch panel survey with a 2-year time lag. Significant demand/control interactions were found for mental and emotional demands, but not for physical demands. The association between job demands and job satisfaction was positive in case of high job control, whereas this association was negative in case of low job control. In addition, the relation between job demands and psychosomatic health symptoms/sickness absence was negative in case of high job control and positive in case of low control. Longitudinal support was found for the core assumption of the DC model with specific measures of job demands and job control as well as self-report and objectively recorded well-being.

Modeling Mode Choice Behavior Incorporating Household and Individual Sociodemographics and Travel Attributes Based on Rough Sets Theory

PubMed Central

Chen, Xuewu; Wei, Ming; Wu, Jingxian; Hou, Xianyao

2014-01-01

Most traditional mode choice models are based on the principle of random utility maximization derived from econometric theory. Alternatively, mode choice modeling can be regarded as a pattern recognition problem reflected from the explanatory variables of determining the choices between alternatives. The paper applies the knowledge discovery technique of rough sets theory to model travel mode choices incorporating household and individual sociodemographics and travel information, and to identify the significance of each attribute. The study uses the detailed travel diary survey data of Changxing county which contains information on both household and individual travel behaviors for model estimation and evaluation. The knowledge is presented in the form of easily understood IF-THEN statements or rules which reveal how each attribute influences mode choice behavior. These rules are then used to predict travel mode choices from information held about previously unseen individuals and the classification performance is assessed. The rough sets model shows high robustness and good predictive ability. The most significant condition attributes identified to determine travel mode choices are gender, distance, household annual income, and occupation. Comparative evaluation with the MNL model also proves that the rough sets model gives superior prediction accuracy and coverage on travel mode choice modeling. PMID:25431585

The demand for sports and exercise: results from an illustrative survey.

PubMed

Anokye, Nana Kwame; Pokhrel, Subhash; Buxton, Martin; Fox-Rushby, Julia

2012-06-01

There is a paucity of empirical evidence on the extent to which price and perceived benefits affect the level of participation in sports and exercise. Using an illustrative sample of 60 adults at Brunel University, West London, we investigate the determinants of demand for sports and exercise. The data were collected through face-to-face interviews that covered indicators of sports and exercise behaviour; money/time price and perceived benefits of participation; and socio-economic/demographic details. Count, linear and probit regression models were fitted as appropriate. Seventy eight per cent of the sample participated in sports and exercise and spent an average of £27 per month and an average of 20 min travelling per occasion of sports and exercise. The demand for sport and exercise was negatively associated with time (travel or access time) and 'variable' price and positively correlated with 'fixed' price. Demand was price inelastic, except in the case of meeting the UK government's recommended level of participation, which is time price elastic (elasticity = -2.2). The implications of data from a larger nationally representative sample as well as the role of economic incentives in influencing uptake of sports and exercise are discussed.

Using an agent-based model to simulate children’s active travel to school

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Despite the multiple advantages of active travel to school, only a small percentage of US children and adolescents walk or bicycle to school. Intervention studies are in a relatively early stage and evidence of their effectiveness over long periods is limited. The purpose of this study was to illustrate the utility of agent-based models in exploring how various policies may influence children’s active travel to school. Methods An agent-based model was developed to simulate children’s school travel behavior within a hypothetical city. The model was used to explore the plausible implications of policies targeting two established barriers to active school travel: long distance to school and traffic safety. The percent of children who walk to school was compared for various scenarios. Results To maximize the percent of children who walk to school the school locations should be evenly distributed over space and children should be assigned to the closest school. In the case of interventions to improve traffic safety, targeting a smaller area around the school with greater intensity may be more effective than targeting a larger area with less intensity. Conclusions Despite the challenges they present, agent based models are a useful complement to other analytical strategies in studying the plausible impact of various policies on active travel to school. PMID:23705953

Understanding urban travel demand : problems, solutions, and the role of forecasting

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-08-01

This report is a general examination and critique of transportation policy making, focusing on the role of traffic and land use forecasting. There are four major components: (1) Current, historical, and projected travel behavior in the Twin Cities; (...

Modelling Per Capita Water Demand Change to Support System Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia, M. E.; Islam, S.

2016-12-01

Water utilities have a number of levers to influence customer water usage. These include levers to proactively slow demand growth over time such as building and landscape codes as well as levers to decrease demands quickly in response to water stress including price increases, education campaigns, water restrictions, and incentive programs. Even actions aimed at short term reductions can result in long term water usage declines when substantial changes are made in water efficiency, as in incentives for fixture replacement or turf removal, or usage patterns such as permanent lawn watering restrictions. Demand change is therefore linked to hydrological conditions and to the effects of past management decisions - both typically included in water supply planning models. Yet, demand is typically incorporated exogenously using scenarios or endogenously using only price, though utilities also use rules and incentives issued in response to water stress and codes specifying standards for new construction to influence water usage. Explicitly including these policy levers in planning models enables concurrent testing of infrastructure and policy strategies and illuminates interactions between the two. The City of Las Vegas is used as a case study to develop and demonstrate this modeling approach. First, a statistical analysis of system data was employed to rule out alternate hypotheses of per capita demand decrease such as changes in population density and economic structure. Next, four demand sub-models were developed including one baseline model in which demand is a function of only price. The sub-models were then calibrated and tested using monthly data from 1997 to 2012. Finally, the best performing sub-model was integrated with a full supply and demand model. The results highlight the importance of both modeling water demand dynamics endogenously and taking a broader view of the variables influencing demand change.

Measuring demand for flat water recreation using a two-stage/disequilibrium travel cost model with adjustment for overdispersion and self-selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKean, John R.; Johnson, Donn; Taylor, R. Garth

2003-04-01

An alternate travel cost model is applied to an on-site sample to estimate the value of flat water recreation on the impounded lower Snake River. Four contiguous reservoirs would be eliminated if the dams are breached to protect endangered Pacific salmon and steelhead trout. The empirical method applies truncated negative binomial regression with adjustment for endogenous stratification. The two-stage decision model assumes that recreationists allocate their time among work and leisure prior to deciding among consumer goods. The allocation of time and money among goods in the second stage is conditional on the predetermined work time and income. The second stage is a disequilibrium labor market which also applies if employers set work hours or if recreationists are not in the labor force. When work time is either predetermined, fixed by contract, or nonexistent, recreationists must consider separate prices and budgets for time and money.

Modeling highway travel time distribution with conditional probability models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oliveira Neto, Francisco Moraes; Chin, Shih-Miao; Hwang, Ho-Ling

ABSTRACT Under the sponsorship of the Federal Highway Administration's Office of Freight Management and Operations, the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI) has developed performance measures through the Freight Performance Measures (FPM) initiative. Under this program, travel speed information is derived from data collected using wireless based global positioning systems. These telemetric data systems are subscribed and used by trucking industry as an operations management tool. More than one telemetric operator submits their data dumps to ATRI on a regular basis. Each data transmission contains truck location, its travel time, and a clock time/date stamp. Data from the FPM program providesmore » a unique opportunity for studying the upstream-downstream speed distributions at different locations, as well as different time of the day and day of the week. This research is focused on the stochastic nature of successive link travel speed data on the continental United States Interstates network. Specifically, a method to estimate route probability distributions of travel time is proposed. This method uses the concepts of convolution of probability distributions and bivariate, link-to-link, conditional probability to estimate the expected distributions for the route travel time. Major contribution of this study is the consideration of speed correlation between upstream and downstream contiguous Interstate segments through conditional probability. The established conditional probability distributions, between successive segments, can be used to provide travel time reliability measures. This study also suggests an adaptive method for calculating and updating route travel time distribution as new data or information is added. This methodology can be useful to estimate performance measures as required by the recent Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act (MAP 21).« less

Travelling Wave Solutions in Multigroup Age-Structured Epidemic Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ducrot, Arnaut; Magal, Pierre; Ruan, Shigui

2010-01-01

Age-structured epidemic models have been used to describe either the age of individuals or the age of infection of certain diseases and to determine how these characteristics affect the outcomes and consequences of epidemiological processes. Most results on age-structured epidemic models focus on the existence, uniqueness, and convergence to disease equilibria of solutions. In this paper we investigate the existence of travelling wave solutions in a deterministic age-structured model describing the circulation of a disease within a population of multigroups. Individuals of each group are able to move with a random walk which is modelled by the classical Fickian diffusion and are classified into two subclasses, susceptible and infective. A susceptible individual in a given group can be crisscross infected by direct contact with infective individuals of possibly any group. This process of transmission can depend upon the age of the disease of infected individuals. The goal of this paper is to provide sufficient conditions that ensure the existence of travelling wave solutions for the age-structured epidemic model. The case of two population groups is numerically investigated which applies to the crisscross transmission of feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV) and some sexual transmission diseases.

The job demands-resources model of burnout.

PubMed

Demerouti, E; Bakker, A B; Nachreiner, F; Schaufeli, W B

2001-06-01

The job demands-resources (JD-R) model proposes that working conditions can be categorized into 2 broad categories, job demands and job resources. that are differentially related to specific outcomes. A series of LISREL analyses using self-reports as well as observer ratings of the working conditions provided strong evidence for the JD-R model: Job demands are primarily related to the exhaustion component of burnout, whereas (lack of) job resources are primarily related to disengagement. Highly similar patterns were observed in each of 3 occupational groups: human services, industry, and transport (total N = 374). In addition, results confirmed the 2-factor structure (exhaustion and disengagement) of a new burnout instrument--the Oldenburg Burnout Inventory--and suggested that this structure is essentially invariant across occupational groups.

Prediction Models for Dynamic Demand Response

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aman, Saima; Frincu, Marc; Chelmis, Charalampos

2015-11-02

As Smart Grids move closer to dynamic curtailment programs, Demand Response (DR) events will become necessary not only on fixed time intervals and weekdays predetermined by static policies, but also during changing decision periods and weekends to react to real-time demand signals. Unique challenges arise in this context vis-a-vis demand prediction and curtailment estimation and the transformation of such tasks into an automated, efficient dynamic demand response (D 2R) process. While existing work has concentrated on increasing the accuracy of prediction models for DR, there is a lack of studies for prediction models for D 2R, which we address inmore » this paper. Our first contribution is the formal definition of D 2R, and the description of its challenges and requirements. Our second contribution is a feasibility analysis of very-short-term prediction of electricity consumption for D 2R over a diverse, large-scale dataset that includes both small residential customers and large buildings. Our third, and major contribution is a set of insights into the predictability of electricity consumption in the context of D 2R. Specifically, we focus on prediction models that can operate at a very small data granularity (here 15-min intervals), for both weekdays and weekends - all conditions that characterize scenarios for D 2R. We find that short-term time series and simple averaging models used by Independent Service Operators and utilities achieve superior prediction accuracy. We also observe that workdays are more predictable than weekends and holiday. Also, smaller customers have large variation in consumption and are less predictable than larger buildings. Key implications of our findings are that better models are required for small customers and for non-workdays, both of which are critical for D 2R. Also, prediction models require just few days’ worth of data indicating that small amounts of historical training data can be used to make reliable predictions

Long-range airplane study: The consumer looks at SST travel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Landes, K. H.; Matter, J. A.

1980-01-01

The attitudes of long-range air travelers toward several basic air travel decisions, were surveyed. Of interest were tradeoffs involving time versus comfort and time versus cost as they pertain to supersonic versus conventional wide-body aircraft on overseas routes. The market focused upon was the segment of air travelers most likely to make that type of tradeoff decision: those having flown overseas routes for business or personal reasons in the recent past. The information generated is intended to provide quantifiable insight into consumer demand for supersonic as compared to wide-body aircraft alternatives for long-range overseas air travel.

Indonesia’s Electricity Demand Dynamic Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulistio, J.; Wirabhuana, A.; Wiratama, M. G.

2017-06-01

Electricity Systems modelling is one of the emerging area in the Global Energy policy studies recently. System Dynamics approach and Computer Simulation has become one the common methods used in energy systems planning and evaluation in many conditions. On the other hand, Indonesia experiencing several major issues in Electricity system such as fossil fuel domination, demand - supply imbalances, distribution inefficiency, and bio-devastation. This paper aims to explain the development of System Dynamics modelling approaches and computer simulation techniques in representing and predicting electricity demand in Indonesia. In addition, this paper also described the typical characteristics and relationship of commercial business sector, industrial sector, and family / domestic sector as electricity subsystems in Indonesia. Moreover, it will be also present direct structure, behavioural, and statistical test as model validation approach and ended by conclusions.

Estimating reaction rate coefficients within a travel-time modeling framework.

PubMed

Gong, R; Lu, C; Wu, W-M; Cheng, H; Gu, B; Watson, D; Jardine, P M; Brooks, S C; Criddle, C S; Kitanidis, P K; Luo, J

2011-01-01

A generalized, efficient, and practical approach based on the travel-time modeling framework is developed to estimate in situ reaction rate coefficients for groundwater remediation in heterogeneous aquifers. The required information for this approach can be obtained by conducting tracer tests with injection of a mixture of conservative and reactive tracers and measurements of both breakthrough curves (BTCs). The conservative BTC is used to infer the travel-time distribution from the injection point to the observation point. For advection-dominant reactive transport with well-mixed reactive species and a constant travel-time distribution, the reactive BTC is obtained by integrating the solutions to advective-reactive transport over the entire travel-time distribution, and then is used in optimization to determine the in situ reaction rate coefficients. By directly working on the conservative and reactive BTCs, this approach avoids costly aquifer characterization and improves the estimation for transport in heterogeneous aquifers which may not be sufficiently described by traditional mechanistic transport models with constant transport parameters. Simplified schemes are proposed for reactive transport with zero-, first-, nth-order, and Michaelis-Menten reactions. The proposed approach is validated by a reactive transport case in a two-dimensional synthetic heterogeneous aquifer and a field-scale bioremediation experiment conducted at Oak Ridge, Tennessee. The field application indicates that ethanol degradation for U(VI)-bioremediation is better approximated by zero-order reaction kinetics than first-order reaction kinetics. Copyright © 2010 The Author(s). Journal compilation © 2010 National Ground Water Association.

Estimating Reaction Rate Coefficients Within a Travel-Time Modeling Framework

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gong, R; Lu, C; Luo, Jian

A generalized, efficient, and practical approach based on the travel-time modeling framework is developed to estimate in situ reaction rate coefficients for groundwater remediation in heterogeneous aquifers. The required information for this approach can be obtained by conducting tracer tests with injection of a mixture of conservative and reactive tracers and measurements of both breakthrough curves (BTCs). The conservative BTC is used to infer the travel-time distribution from the injection point to the observation point. For advection-dominant reactive transport with well-mixed reactive species and a constant travel-time distribution, the reactive BTC is obtained by integrating the solutions to advective-reactive transportmore » over the entire travel-time distribution, and then is used in optimization to determine the in situ reaction rate coefficients. By directly working on the conservative and reactive BTCs, this approach avoids costly aquifer characterization and improves the estimation for transport in heterogeneous aquifers which may not be sufficiently described by traditional mechanistic transport models with constant transport parameters. Simplified schemes are proposed for reactive transport with zero-, first-, nth-order, and Michaelis-Menten reactions. The proposed approach is validated by a reactive transport case in a two-dimensional synthetic heterogeneous aquifer and a field-scale bioremediation experiment conducted at Oak Ridge, Tennessee. The field application indicates that ethanol degradation for U(VI)-bioremediation is better approximated by zero-order reaction kinetics than first-order reaction kinetics.« less

Supply based on demand dynamical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levi, Asaf; Sabuco, Juan; Sanjuán, Miguel A. F.

2018-04-01

We propose and numerically analyze a simple dynamical model that describes the firm behaviors under uncertainty of demand. Iterating this simple model and varying some parameter values, we observe a wide variety of market dynamics such as equilibria, periodic, and chaotic behaviors. Interestingly, the model is also able to reproduce market collapses.

Forecasting Hourly Water Demands With Seasonal Autoregressive Models for Real-Time Application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Jinduan; Boccelli, Dominic L.

2018-02-01

Consumer water demands are not typically measured at temporal or spatial scales adequate to support real-time decision making, and recent approaches for estimating unobserved demands using observed hydraulic measurements are generally not capable of forecasting demands and uncertainty information. While time series modeling has shown promise for representing total system demands, these models have generally not been evaluated at spatial scales appropriate for representative real-time modeling. This study investigates the use of a double-seasonal time series model to capture daily and weekly autocorrelations to both total system demands and regional aggregated demands at a scale that would capture demand variability across a distribution system. Emphasis was placed on the ability to forecast demands and quantify uncertainties with results compared to traditional time series pattern-based demand models as well as nonseasonal and single-seasonal time series models. Additional research included the implementation of an adaptive-parameter estimation scheme to update the time series model when unobserved changes occurred in the system. For two case studies, results showed that (1) for the smaller-scale aggregated water demands, the log-transformed time series model resulted in improved forecasts, (2) the double-seasonal model outperformed other models in terms of forecasting errors, and (3) the adaptive adjustment of parameters during forecasting improved the accuracy of the generated prediction intervals. These results illustrate the capabilities of time series modeling to forecast both water demands and uncertainty estimates at spatial scales commensurate for real-time modeling applications and provide a foundation for developing a real-time integrated demand-hydraulic model.

Metapopulation epidemic models with heterogeneous mixing and travel behaviour

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Determining the pandemic potential of an emerging infectious disease and how it depends on the various epidemic and population aspects is critical for the preparation of an adequate response aimed at its control. The complex interplay between population movements in space and non-homogeneous mixing patterns have so far hindered the fundamental understanding of the conditions for spatial invasion through a general theoretical framework. To address this issue, we present an analytical modelling approach taking into account such interplay under general conditions of mobility and interactions, in the simplifying assumption of two population classes. Methods We describe a spatially structured population with non-homogeneous mixing and travel behaviour through a multi-host stochastic epidemic metapopulation model. Different population partitions, mixing patterns and mobility structures are considered, along with a specific application for the study of the role of age partition in the early spread of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza. Results We provide a complete mathematical formulation of the model and derive a semi-analytical expression of the threshold condition for global invasion of an emerging infectious disease in the metapopulation system. A rich solution space is found that depends on the social partition of the population, the pattern of contacts across groups and their relative social activity, the travel attitude of each class, and the topological and traffic features of the mobility network. Reducing the activity of the less social group and reducing the cross-group mixing are predicted to be the most efficient strategies for controlling the pandemic potential in the case the less active group constitutes the majority of travellers. If instead traveling is dominated by the more social class, our model predicts the existence of an optimal across-groups mixing that maximises the pandemic potential of the disease, whereas the impact of variations in

Metapopulation epidemic models with heterogeneous mixing and travel behaviour.

PubMed

Apolloni, Andrea; Poletto, Chiara; Ramasco, José J; Jensen, Pablo; Colizza, Vittoria

2014-01-13

Determining the pandemic potential of an emerging infectious disease and how it depends on the various epidemic and population aspects is critical for the preparation of an adequate response aimed at its control. The complex interplay between population movements in space and non-homogeneous mixing patterns have so far hindered the fundamental understanding of the conditions for spatial invasion through a general theoretical framework. To address this issue, we present an analytical modelling approach taking into account such interplay under general conditions of mobility and interactions, in the simplifying assumption of two population classes. We describe a spatially structured population with non-homogeneous mixing and travel behaviour through a multi-host stochastic epidemic metapopulation model. Different population partitions, mixing patterns and mobility structures are considered, along with a specific application for the study of the role of age partition in the early spread of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza. We provide a complete mathematical formulation of the model and derive a semi-analytical expression of the threshold condition for global invasion of an emerging infectious disease in the metapopulation system. A rich solution space is found that depends on the social partition of the population, the pattern of contacts across groups and their relative social activity, the travel attitude of each class, and the topological and traffic features of the mobility network. Reducing the activity of the less social group and reducing the cross-group mixing are predicted to be the most efficient strategies for controlling the pandemic potential in the case the less active group constitutes the majority of travellers. If instead traveling is dominated by the more social class, our model predicts the existence of an optimal across-groups mixing that maximises the pandemic potential of the disease, whereas the impact of variations in the activity of each group

An integrated framework for modeling freight mode and route choice.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-10-01

A number of statewide travel demand models have included freight as a separate component in analysis. Unlike : passenger travel, freight has not gained equivalent attention because of lack of data and difficulties in modeling. In : the current state ...

Epidemic spreading by objective traveling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Ming; Liu, Zonghua; Li, Baowen

2009-07-01

A fundamental feature of agent traveling in social networks is that traveling is usually not a random walk but with a specific destination and goes through the shortest path from starting to destination. A serious consequence of the objective traveling is that it may result in a fast epidemic spreading, such as SARS etc. In this letter we present a reaction-traveling model to study how the objective traveling influences the epidemic spreading. We consider a random scale-free meta-population network with sub-population at each node. Through a SIS model we theoretically prove that near the threshold of epidemic outbreak, the objective traveling can significantly enhance the final infected population and the infected fraction at a node is proportional to its betweenness for the traveling agents and approximately proportional to its degree for the non-traveling agents. Numerical simulations have confirmed the theoretical predictions.

AMPO Travel Modeling Working Group Meeting on Dynamic Traffic Assignment

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-03-01

On December 17-18, 2015, the Association of Metropolitan Planning Organizations (AMPO) convened a travel modeling working group meeting for the purpose of discussing Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTA). Participants discussed the uses of DTA, challenges...

A comparison of exposure to risk factors for giardiasis in non-travellers, domestic travellers and international travellers in a Canadian community, 2006-2012.

PubMed

Swirski, A L; Pearl, D L; Peregrine, A S; Pintar, K

2016-04-01

The purpose of this study is to determine how demographic and exposure factors related to giardiasis vary between travel and endemic cases. Exposure and demographic data were gathered by public health inspectors from giardiasis cases reported from the Region of Waterloo from 2006 to 2012. Logistic regression models were fit to assess differences in exposure to risk factors for giardiasis between international travel-related cases and Canadian acquired cases while controlling for age and sex. Multinomial regression models were also fit to assess the differences in risk profiles between international and domestic travel-related cases and endemic cases. Travel-related cases (both international and domestic) were more likely to go camping or kayaking, and consume untreated water compared to endemic cases. Domestic travel-related cases were more likely to visit a petting zoo or farm compared to endemic cases, and were more likely to swim in freshwater compared to endemic cases and international travel-related cases. International travellers were more likely to swim in an ocean compared to both domestic travel-related and endemic cases. These findings demonstrate that travel-related and endemic cases have different risk exposure profiles which should be considered for appropriately targeting health promotion campaigns.

The Distributed Geothermal Market Demand Model (dGeo): Documentation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McCabe, Kevin; Mooney, Meghan E; Sigrin, Benjamin O

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed the Distributed Geothermal Market Demand Model (dGeo) as a tool to explore the potential role of geothermal distributed energy resources (DERs) in meeting thermal energy demands in the United States. The dGeo model simulates the potential for deployment of geothermal DERs in the residential and commercial sectors of the continental United States for two specific technologies: ground-source heat pumps (GHP) and geothermal direct use (DU) for district heating. To quantify the opportunity space for these technologies, dGeo leverages a highly resolved geospatial database and robust bottom-up, agent-based modeling framework. This design is consistentmore » with others in the family of Distributed Generation Market Demand models (dGen; Sigrin et al. 2016), including the Distributed Solar Market Demand (dSolar) and Distributed Wind Market Demand (dWind) models. dGeo is intended to serve as a long-term scenario-modeling tool. It has the capability to simulate the technical potential, economic potential, market potential, and technology deployment of GHP and DU through the year 2050 under a variety of user-defined input scenarios. Through these capabilities, dGeo can provide substantial analytical value to various stakeholders interested in exploring the effects of various techno-economic, macroeconomic, financial, and policy factors related to the opportunity for GHP and DU in the United States. This report documents the dGeo modeling design, methodology, assumptions, and capabilities.« less

Basic Investigations of Dynamic Travel Time Estimation Model for Traffic Signals Control Using Information from Optical Beacons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okutani, Iwao; Mitsui, Tatsuro; Nakada, Yusuke

In this paper put forward are neuron-type models, i.e., neural network model, wavelet neuron model and three layered wavelet neuron model(WV3), for estimating traveling time between signalized intersections in order to facilitate adaptive setting of traffic signal parameters such as green time and offset. Model validation tests using simulated data reveal that compared to other models, WV3 model works very fast in learning process and can produce more accurate estimates of travel time. Also, it is exhibited that up-link information obtainable from optical beacons, i.e., travel time observed during the former cycle time in this case, makes a crucial input variable to the models in that there isn't any substantial difference between the change of estimated and simulated travel time with the change of green time or offset when up-link information is employed as input while there appears big discrepancy between them when not employed.

Managing the travel model process : small and medium-sized MPOs. Participant handbook.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-09-01

The learning objectives of this course were to: explain fundamental travel model concepts; describe the model development process; identify key inputs and describe the quality control process; and identify and manage resources.

Managing the travel model process : small and medium-sized MPOs. Instructor guide.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-09-01

The learning objectives of this course were to: explain fundamental travel model concepts; describe the model development process; identify key inputs and describe the quality control process; and identify and manage resources.

The TimeGeo modeling framework for urban mobility without travel surveys

PubMed Central

Jiang, Shan; Yang, Yingxiang; Gupta, Siddharth; Veneziano, Daniele; Athavale, Shounak; González, Marta C.

2016-01-01

Well-established fine-scale urban mobility models today depend on detailed but cumbersome and expensive travel surveys for their calibration. Not much is known, however, about the set of mechanisms needed to generate complete mobility profiles if only using passive datasets with mostly sparse traces of individuals. In this study, we present a mechanistic modeling framework (TimeGeo) that effectively generates urban mobility patterns with resolution of 10 min and hundreds of meters. It ties together the inference of home and work activity locations from data, with the modeling of flexible activities (e.g., other) in space and time. The temporal choices are captured by only three features: the weekly home-based tour number, the dwell rate, and the burst rate. These combined generate for each individual: (i) stay duration of activities, (ii) number of visited locations per day, and (iii) daily mobility networks. These parameters capture how an individual deviates from the circadian rhythm of the population, and generate the wide spectrum of empirically observed mobility behaviors. The spatial choices of visited locations are modeled by a rank-based exploration and preferential return (r-EPR) mechanism that incorporates space in the EPR model. Finally, we show that a hierarchical multiplicative cascade method can measure the interaction between land use and generation of trips. In this way, urban structure is directly related to the observed distance of travels. This framework allows us to fully embrace the massive amount of individual data generated by information and communication technologies (ICTs) worldwide to comprehensively model urban mobility without travel surveys. PMID:27573826

The TimeGeo modeling framework for urban motility without travel surveys.

PubMed

Jiang, Shan; Yang, Yingxiang; Gupta, Siddharth; Veneziano, Daniele; Athavale, Shounak; González, Marta C

2016-09-13

Well-established fine-scale urban mobility models today depend on detailed but cumbersome and expensive travel surveys for their calibration. Not much is known, however, about the set of mechanisms needed to generate complete mobility profiles if only using passive datasets with mostly sparse traces of individuals. In this study, we present a mechanistic modeling framework (TimeGeo) that effectively generates urban mobility patterns with resolution of 10 min and hundreds of meters. It ties together the inference of home and work activity locations from data, with the modeling of flexible activities (e.g., other) in space and time. The temporal choices are captured by only three features: the weekly home-based tour number, the dwell rate, and the burst rate. These combined generate for each individual: (i) stay duration of activities, (ii) number of visited locations per day, and (iii) daily mobility networks. These parameters capture how an individual deviates from the circadian rhythm of the population, and generate the wide spectrum of empirically observed mobility behaviors. The spatial choices of visited locations are modeled by a rank-based exploration and preferential return (r-EPR) mechanism that incorporates space in the EPR model. Finally, we show that a hierarchical multiplicative cascade method can measure the interaction between land use and generation of trips. In this way, urban structure is directly related to the observed distance of travels. This framework allows us to fully embrace the massive amount of individual data generated by information and communication technologies (ICTs) worldwide to comprehensively model urban mobility without travel surveys.

The comfort and satisfaction of air travelers - Basis for a descriptive model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jacobson, I. D.; Martinez, J.

1974-01-01

The results of a questionnaire and interview survey are used as a basis for proposing a descriptive model of the comfort and satisfaction of the commercial air traveler. Passenger attitudes toward the present commercial air travel system are examined. Comfort is interpreted as being represented by a four-dimensional composite of commonly encountered environmental variables. Satisfaction is represented as a composite of safety, cost-benefit, luxury, and in-flight activity dimensions.

Role of Travel Motivations, Perceived Risks and Travel Constraints on Destination Image and Visit Intention in Medical Tourism: Theoretical model.

PubMed

Khan, Mohammad J; Chelliah, Shankar; Haron, Mahmod S; Ahmed, Sahrish

2017-02-01

Travel motivations, perceived risks and travel constraints, along with the attributes and characteristics of medical tourism destinations, are important issues in medical tourism. Although the importance of these factors is already known, a comprehensive theoretical model of the decision-making process of medical tourists has yet to be established, analysing the intricate relationships between the different variables involved. This article examines a large body of literature on both medical and conventional tourism in order to propose a comprehensive theoretical framework of medical tourism decision-making. Many facets of this complex phenomenon require further empirical investigation.

A cost comparison of travel models and behavioural telemedicine for rural, Native American populations in New Mexico.

PubMed

Horn, Brady P; Barragan, Gary N; Fore, Chis; Bonham, Caroline A

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study was to model the cost of delivering behavioural health services to rural Native American populations using telecommunications and compare these costs with the travel costs associated with providing equivalent care. Behavioural telehealth costs were modelled using equipment, transmission, administrative and IT costs from an established telecommunications centre. Two types of travel models were estimated: a patient travel model and a physician travel model. These costs were modelled using the New Mexico resource geographic information system program (RGIS) and ArcGIS software and unit costs (e.g. fuel prices, vehicle depreciation, lodging, physician wages, and patient wages) that were obtained from the literature and US government agencies. The average per-patient cost of providing behavioural healthcare via telehealth was US$138.34, and the average per-patient travel cost was US$169.76 for physicians and US$333.52 for patients. Sensitivity analysis found these results to be rather robust to changes in imputed parameters and preliminary evidence of economies of scale was found. Besides the obvious benefits of increased access to healthcare and reduced health disparities, providing behavioural telehealth for rural Native American populations was estimated to be less costly than modelled equivalent care provided by travelling. Additionally, as administrative and coordination costs are a major component of telehealth costs, as programmes grow to serve more patients, the relative costs of these initial infrastructure as well as overall per-patient costs should decrease. © The Author(s) 2015.

Positive feedback : exploring current approaches in iterative travel demand model implementation.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-01-01

Currently, the models that TxDOTs Transportation Planning and Programming Division (TPP) developed are : traditional three-step models (i.e., trip generation, trip distribution, and traffic assignment) that are sequentially : applied. A limitation...

Using a numerical model to understand the connection between the ocean and acoustic travel-time measurements.

PubMed

Powell, Brian S; Kerry, Colette G; Cornuelle, Bruce D

2013-10-01

Measurements of acoustic ray travel-times in the ocean provide synoptic integrals of the ocean state between source and receiver. It is known that the ray travel-time is sensitive to variations in the ocean at the transmission time, but the sensitivity of the travel-time to spatial variations in the ocean prior to the acoustic transmission have not been quantified. This study examines the sensitivity of ray travel-time to the temporally and spatially evolving ocean state in the Philippine Sea using the adjoint of a numerical model. A one year series of five day backward integrations of the adjoint model quantify the sensitivity of travel-times to varying dynamics that can alter the travel-time of a 611 km ray by 200 ms. The early evolution of the sensitivities reveals high-mode internal waves that dissipate quickly, leaving the lowest three modes, providing a connection to variations in the internal tide generation prior to the sample time. They are also strongly sensitive to advective effects that alter density along the ray path. These sensitivities reveal how travel-time measurements are affected by both nearby and distant waters. Temporal nonlinearity of the sensitivities suggests that prior knowledge of the ocean state is necessary to exploit the travel-time observations.

Integrated health impact assessment of travel behaviour: model exploration and application to a fuel price increase.

PubMed

Dhondt, Stijn; Kochan, Bruno; Beckx, Carolien; Lefebvre, Wouter; Pirdavani, Ali; Degraeuwe, Bart; Bellemans, Tom; Int Panis, Luc; Macharis, Cathy; Putman, Koen

2013-01-01

Transportation policy measures often aim to change travel behaviour towards more efficient transport. While these policy measures do not necessarily target health, these could have an indirect health effect. We evaluate the health impact of a policy resulting in an increase of car fuel prices by 20% on active travel, outdoor air pollution and risk of road traffic injury. An integrated modelling chain is proposed to evaluate the health impact of this policy measure. An activity-based transport model estimated movements of people, providing whereabouts and travelled kilometres. An emission- and dispersion model provided air quality levels (elemental carbon) and a road safety model provided the number of fatal and non-fatal traffic victims. We used kilometres travelled while walking or cycling to estimate the time in active travel. Differences in health effects between the current and fuel price scenario were expressed in Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY). A 20% fuel price increase leads to an overall gain of 1650 (1010-2330) DALY. Prevented deaths lead to a total of 1450 (890-2040) Years Life Gained (YLG), with better air quality accounting for 530 (180-880) YLG, fewer road traffic injuries for 750 (590-910) YLG and active travel for 170 (120-250) YLG. Concerning morbidity, mostly road safety led to 200 (120-290) fewer Years Lived with Disability (YLD), while air quality improvement only had a minor effect on cardiovascular hospital admissions. Air quality improvement and increased active travel mainly had an impact at older age, while traffic safety mainly affected younger and middle-aged people. This modelling approach illustrates the feasibility of a comprehensive health impact assessment of changes in travel behaviour. Our results suggest that more is needed than a policy rising car fuel prices by 20% to achieve substantial health gains. While the activity-based model gives an answer on what the effect of a proposed policy is, the focus on health may make

Variable population exposure and distributed travel speeds in least-cost tsunami evacuation modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraser, S. A.; Wood, N. J.; Johnston, D. M.; Leonard, G. S.; Greening, P. D.; Rossetto, T.

2014-06-01

Evacuation of the population from a tsunami hazard zone is vital to reduce life-loss due to inundation. Geospatial least-cost distance modelling provides one approach to assessing tsunami evacuation potential. Previous models have generally used two static exposure scenarios and fixed travel speeds to represent population movement. Some analyses have assumed immediate evacuation departure time or assumed a common departure time for all exposed population. In this paper, a method is proposed to incorporate time-variable exposure, distributed travel speeds, and uncertain evacuation departure time into an existing anisotropic least-cost path distance framework. The model is demonstrated for a case study of local-source tsunami evacuation in Napier City, Hawke's Bay, New Zealand. There is significant diurnal variation in pedestrian evacuation potential at the suburb-level, although the total number of people unable to evacuate is stable across all scenarios. Whilst some fixed travel speeds can approximate a distributed speed approach, others may overestimate evacuation potential. The impact of evacuation departure time is a significant contributor to total evacuation time. This method improves least-cost modelling of evacuation dynamics for evacuation planning, casualty modelling, and development of emergency response training scenarios.

Using Enrollment Demand Models in Institutional Pricing Decisions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weiler, William C.

1984-01-01

Issues in the application of enrollment demand analysis to institutions' pricing policy are discussed, including price change impact on enrollment, the role of enrollment demand models on long-range financial and personnel planning, use of tuition and financial aid policy in optimizing policymakers' enrollment objectives, and the redistribution…

An Analysis of Delay and Travel Times at Sao Paulo International Airport (AISP/GRU): Planning Based on Simulation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Santana, Erico Soriano Martins; Mueller, Carlos

2003-01-01

The occurrence of flight delays in Brazil, mostly verified at the ground (airfield), is responsible for serious disruptions at the airport level but also for the unchaining of problems in all the airport system, affecting also the airspace. The present study develops an analysis of delay and travel times at Sao Paulo International Airport/ Guarulhos (AISP/GRU) airfield based on simulation model. Different airport physical and operational scenarios had been analyzed by means of simulation. SIMMOD Plus 4.0, the computational tool developed to represent aircraft operation in the airspace and airside of airports, was used to perform these analysis. The study was mainly focused on aircraft operations on ground, at the airport runway, taxi-lanes and aprons. The visualization of the operations with increasing demand facilitated the analyses. The results generated in this work certify the viability of the methodology, they also indicated the solutions capable to solve the delay problem by travel time analysis, thus diminishing the costs for users mainly airport authority. It also indicated alternatives for airport operations, assisting the decision-making process and in the appropriate timing of the proposed changes in the existing infrastructure.

Taxonomy for Modeling Demand Response Resources

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Olsen, Daniel; Kiliccote, Sila; Sohn, Michael

2014-08-01

Demand response resources are an important component of modern grid management strategies. Accurate characterizations of DR resources are needed to develop systems of optimally managed grid operations and to plan future investments in generation, transmission, and distribution. The DOE Demand Response and Energy Storage Integration Study (DRESIS) project researched the degree to which demand response (DR) and energy storage can provide grid flexibility and stability in the Western Interconnection. In this work, DR resources were integrated with traditional generators in grid forecasting tools, specifically a production cost model of the Western Interconnection. As part of this study, LBNL developed amore » modeling framework for characterizing resource availability and response attributes of DR resources consistent with the governing architecture of the simulation modeling platform. In this report, we identify and describe the following response attributes required to accurately characterize DR resources: allowable response frequency, maximum response duration, minimum time needed to achieve load changes, necessary pre- or re-charging of integrated energy storage, costs of enablement, magnitude of controlled resources, and alignment of availability. We describe a framework for modeling these response attributes, and apply this framework to characterize 13 DR resources including residential, commercial, and industrial end-uses. We group these end-uses into three broad categories based on their response capabilities, and define a taxonomy for classifying DR resources within these categories. The three categories of resources exhibit different capabilities and differ in value to the grid. Results from the production cost model of the Western Interconnection illustrate that minor differences in resource attributes can have significant impact on grid utilization of DR resources. The implications of these findings will be explored in future DR valuation studies.« less

Stochastic optimization model for order acceptance with multiple demand classes and uncertain demand/supply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Wen; Fung, Richard Y. K.

2014-06-01

This article considers an order acceptance problem in a make-to-stock manufacturing system with multiple demand classes in a finite time horizon. Demands in different periods are random variables and are independent of one another, and replenishments of inventory deviate from the scheduled quantities. The objective of this work is to maximize the expected net profit over the planning horizon by deciding the fraction of the demand that is going to be fulfilled. This article presents a stochastic order acceptance optimization model and analyses the existence of the optimal promising policies. An example of a discrete problem is used to illustrate the policies by applying the dynamic programming method. In order to solve the continuous problems, a heuristic algorithm based on stochastic approximation (HASA) is developed. Finally, the computational results of a case example illustrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the HASA approach, and make the application of the proposed model readily acceptable.

Model Information Exchange System (MIXS).

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-08-01

Many travel demand forecast models operate at state, regional, and local levels. While they share the same physical network in overlapping geographic areas, they use different and uncoordinated modeling networks. This creates difficulties for models ...

Variable population exposure and distributed travel speeds in least-cost tsunami evacuation modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraser, S. A.; Wood, N. J.; Johnston, D. M.; Leonard, G. S.; Greening, P. D.; Rossetto, T.

2014-11-01

Evacuation of the population from a tsunami hazard zone is vital to reduce life-loss due to inundation. Geospatial least-cost distance modelling provides one approach to assessing tsunami evacuation potential. Previous models have generally used two static exposure scenarios and fixed travel speeds to represent population movement. Some analyses have assumed immediate departure or a common evacuation departure time for all exposed population. Here, a method is proposed to incorporate time-variable exposure, distributed travel speeds, and uncertain evacuation departure time into an existing anisotropic least-cost path distance framework. The method is demonstrated for hypothetical local-source tsunami evacuation in Napier City, Hawke's Bay, New Zealand. There is significant diurnal variation in pedestrian evacuation potential at the suburb level, although the total number of people unable to evacuate is stable across all scenarios. Whilst some fixed travel speeds approximate a distributed speed approach, others may overestimate evacuation potential. The impact of evacuation departure time is a significant contributor to total evacuation time. This method improves least-cost modelling of evacuation dynamics for evacuation planning, casualty modelling, and development of emergency response training scenarios. However, it requires detailed exposure data, which may preclude its use in many situations.

Variable population exposure and distributed travel speeds in least-cost tsunami evacuation modelling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fraser, Stuart A.; Wood, Nathan J.; Johnston, David A.; Leonard, Graham S.; Greening, Paul D.; Rossetto, Tiziana

2014-01-01

Evacuation of the population from a tsunami hazard zone is vital to reduce life-loss due to inundation. Geospatial least-cost distance modelling provides one approach to assessing tsunami evacuation potential. Previous models have generally used two static exposure scenarios and fixed travel speeds to represent population movement. Some analyses have assumed immediate departure or a common evacuation departure time for all exposed population. Here, a method is proposed to incorporate time-variable exposure, distributed travel speeds, and uncertain evacuation departure time into an existing anisotropic least-cost path distance framework. The method is demonstrated for hypothetical local-source tsunami evacuation in Napier City, Hawke's Bay, New Zealand. There is significant diurnal variation in pedestrian evacuation potential at the suburb level, although the total number of people unable to evacuate is stable across all scenarios. Whilst some fixed travel speeds approximate a distributed speed approach, others may overestimate evacuation potential. The impact of evacuation departure time is a significant contributor to total evacuation time. This method improves least-cost modelling of evacuation dynamics for evacuation planning, casualty modelling, and development of emergency response training scenarios. However, it requires detailed exposure data, which may preclude its use in many situations.

Traveling waves in a delayed SIR model with nonlocal dispersal and nonlinear incidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Shou-Peng; Yang, Yun-Rui; Zhou, Yong-Hui

2018-01-01

This paper is concerned with traveling waves of a delayed SIR model with nonlocal dispersal and a general nonlinear incidence. The existence and nonexistence of traveling waves of the system are established respectively by Schauder's fixed point theorem and two-sided Laplace transform. It is also shown that the spread speed c is influenced by the dispersal rate of the infected individuals and the delay τ.

Comparing Exponential and Exponentiated Models of Drug Demand in Cocaine Users

PubMed Central

Strickland, Justin C.; Lile, Joshua A.; Rush, Craig R.; Stoops, William W.

2016-01-01

Drug purchase tasks provide rapid and efficient measurement of drug demand. Zero values (i.e., prices with zero consumption) present a quantitative challenge when using exponential demand models that exponentiated models may resolve. We aimed to replicate and advance the utility of using an exponentiated model by demonstrating construct validity (i.e., association with real-world drug use) and generalizability across drug commodities. Participants (N = 40 cocaine-using adults) completed Cocaine, Alcohol, and Cigarette Purchase Tasks evaluating hypothetical consumption across changes in price. Exponentiated and exponential models were fit to these data using different treatments of zero consumption values, including retaining zeros or replacing them with 0.1, 0.01, 0.001. Excellent model fits were observed with the exponentiated model. Means and precision fluctuated with different replacement values when using the exponential model, but were consistent for the exponentiated model. The exponentiated model provided the strongest correlation between derived demand intensity (Q0) and self-reported free consumption in all instances (Cocaine r = .88; Alcohol r = .97; Cigarette r = .91). Cocaine demand elasticity was positively correlated with alcohol and cigarette elasticity. Exponentiated parameters were associated with real-world drug use (e.g., weekly cocaine use), whereas these correlations were less consistent for exponential parameters. Our findings show that selection of zero replacement values impact demand parameters and their association with drug-use outcomes when using the exponential model, but not the exponentiated model. This work supports the adoption of the exponentiated demand model by replicating improved fit and consistency, in addition to demonstrating construct validity and generalizability. PMID:27929347

Demand projections for the northeast corridor : financial analysis

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1976-06-30

This report describes the development and results of intercity travel demand projections by city-pair prepared for the Northeast Corridor financial analysis. In addition associated analyses of projected passenger volumes by station and of selected al...

Some comments on the World Energy Conference (WEC) energy demand model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brandell, L.

1982-04-01

The WEC model, relating the energy demand for a region in a year to gross national product (GNP), aggregated energy prices and elasticity constants, is generalized. The changes that result from the assumption that the elasticity factors are not constant are examined. The resulting differential equation contains the variables energy demand per capita and GNP per capita for the region considered. The effect of time lag in energy demand and the influence of the population growth rate are also included in the model. No projections of the future energy demand were made, but model sensitiveness to the modifications were studied. Time lag effects and population growth effects can raise the projected energy demand for a region by 10% or more.

Psychosocial work environment and health in U.S. metropolitan areas: a test of the demand-control and demand-control-support models.

PubMed

Muntaner, C; Schoenbach, C

1994-01-01

The authors use confirmatory factor analysis to investigate the psychosocial dimensions of work environments relevant to health outcomes, in a representative sample of five U.S. metropolitan areas. Through an aggregated inference system, scales from Schwartz and associates' job scoring system and from the Dictionary of Occupational Titles (DOT) were employed to examine two alternative models: the demand-control model of Karasek and Theorell and Johnson's demand-control-support model. Confirmatory factor analysis was used to test the two models. The two multidimensional models yielded better fits than an unstructured model. After allowing for the measurement error variance due to the method of assessment (Schwartz and associates' system or DOT), both models yielded acceptable goodness-of-fit indices, but the fit of the demand-control-support model was significantly better. Overall these results indicate that the dimensions of Control (substantive complexity of work, skill discretion, decision authority), Demands (physical exertion, physical demands and hazards), and Social Support (coworker and supervisor social supports) provide an acceptable account of the psychosocial dimensions of work associated with health outcomes.

Development of discrete choice model considering internal reference points and their effects in travel mode choice context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarif; Kurauchi, Shinya; Yoshii, Toshio

2017-06-01

In the conventional travel behavior models such as logit and probit, decision makers are assumed to conduct the absolute evaluations on the attributes of the choice alternatives. On the other hand, many researchers in cognitive psychology and marketing science have been suggesting that the perceptions of attributes are characterized by the benchmark called “reference points” and the relative evaluations based on them are often employed in various choice situations. Therefore, this study developed a travel behavior model based on the mental accounting theory in which the internal reference points are explicitly considered. A questionnaire survey about the shopping trip to the CBD in Matsuyama city was conducted, and then the roles of reference points in travel mode choice contexts were investigated. The result showed that the goodness-of-fit of the developed model was higher than that of the conventional model, indicating that the internal reference points might play the major roles in the choice of travel mode. Also shown was that the respondents seem to utilize various reference points: some tend to adopt the lowest fuel price they have experienced, others employ fare price they feel in perceptions of the travel cost.

Monopoly models with time-varying demand function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cavalli, Fausto; Naimzada, Ahmad

2018-05-01

We study a family of monopoly models for markets characterized by time-varying demand functions, in which a boundedly rational agent chooses output levels on the basis of a gradient adjustment mechanism. After presenting the model for a generic framework, we analytically study the case of cyclically alternating demand functions. We show that both the perturbation size and the agent's reactivity to profitability variation signals can have counterintuitive roles on the resulting period-2 cycles and on their stability. In particular, increasing the perturbation size can have both a destabilizing and a stabilizing effect on the resulting dynamics. Moreover, in contrast with the case of time-constant demand functions, the agent's reactivity is not just destabilizing, but can improve stability, too. This means that a less cautious behavior can provide better performance, both with respect to stability and to achieved profits. We show that, even if the decision mechanism is very simple and is not able to always provide the optimal production decisions, achieved profits are very close to those optimal. Finally, we show that in agreement with the existing empirical literature, the price series obtained simulating the proposed model exhibit a significant deviation from normality and large volatility, in particular when underlying deterministic dynamics become unstable and complex.

The role of workaholism in the job demands-resources model.

PubMed

Molino, Monica; Bakker, Arnold B; Ghislieri, Chiara

2016-07-01

The present study tries to gain more insight in workaholism by investigating its antecedents and consequences using the job demands-resources model. We hypothesized that job demands would be positively related to workaholism, particularly when job resources are low. In addition, we hypothesized that workaholism would be positively related to negative outcomes in three important life domains: health, family, and work. The research involved 617 Italian workers (employees and self-employed). To test the hypotheses we applied structural equation modeling (SEM) and moderated structural equation modeling (MSEM) using Mplus 6. The results of SEM showed a good model where workload, cognitive demands, emotional demands, and customer-related social stressors were positively related to workaholism and work-family conflict (WFC) (partial mediation). Additionally, workaholism was indirectly related to exhaustion and intentions to change jobs through WFC. Moreover, MSEM analyses confirmed that job resources (job security and opportunities for development) buffered the relationship between job demands and workaholism. Particularly, the interaction effects were statistically significant in five out of eight combinations. These findings suggest that workaholism is a function of a suboptimal work environment and predicts unfavorable employee outcomes. We discuss the theoretical and practical implications of these findings.

Demand for Light Duty Trucks : The Wharton EFA Motor Vehicle Demand Model (Mark II).

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1981-01-01

A preliminary model of U.S. light-duty vehicle demand is presented which contains an integrated analysis of automobiles and light trucks (under 10,000 lbs. GVW). The model has been estimated using both cross-section and time-series data, and is a dev...

Remote sensing inputs to water demand modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Estes, J. E.; Jensen, J. R.; Tinney, L. R.; Rector, M.

1975-01-01

In an attempt to determine the ability of remote sensing techniques to economically generate data required by water demand models, the Geography Remote Sensing Unit, in conjunction with the Kern County Water Agency of California, developed an analysis model. As a result it was determined that agricultural cropland inventories utilizing both high altitude photography and LANDSAT imagery can be conducted cost effectively. In addition, by using average irrigation application rates in conjunction with cropland data, estimates of agricultural water demand can be generated. However, more accurate estimates are possible if crop type, acreage, and crop specific application rates are employed. An analysis of the effect of saline-alkali soils on water demand in the study area is also examined. Finally, reference is made to the detection and delineation of water tables that are perched near the surface by semi-permeable clay layers. Soil salinity prediction, automated crop identification on a by-field basis, and a potential input to the determination of zones of equal benefit taxation are briefly touched upon.

Interactive, open source, travel time scenario modelling: tools to facilitate participation in health service access analysis.

PubMed

Fisher, Rohan; Lassa, Jonatan

2017-04-18

Modelling travel time to services has become a common public health tool for planning service provision but the usefulness of these analyses is constrained by the availability of accurate input data and limitations inherent in the assumptions and parameterisation. This is particularly an issue in the developing world where access to basic data is limited and travel is often complex and multi-modal. Improving the accuracy and relevance in this context requires greater accessibility to, and flexibility in, travel time modelling tools to facilitate the incorporation of local knowledge and the rapid exploration of multiple travel scenarios. The aim of this work was to develop simple open source, adaptable, interactive travel time modelling tools to allow greater access to and participation in service access analysis. Described are three interconnected applications designed to reduce some of the barriers to the more wide-spread use of GIS analysis of service access and allow for complex spatial and temporal variations in service availability. These applications are an open source GIS tool-kit and two geo-simulation models. The development of these tools was guided by health service issues from a developing world context but they present a general approach to enabling greater access to and flexibility in health access modelling. The tools demonstrate a method that substantially simplifies the process for conducting travel time assessments and demonstrate a dynamic, interactive approach in an open source GIS format. In addition this paper provides examples from empirical experience where these tools have informed better policy and planning. Travel and health service access is complex and cannot be reduced to a few static modeled outputs. The approaches described in this paper use a unique set of tools to explore this complexity, promote discussion and build understanding with the goal of producing better planning outcomes. The accessible, flexible, interactive and

Modeling water demand when households have multiple sources of water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coulibaly, Lassina; Jakus, Paul M.; Keith, John E.

2014-07-01

A significant portion of the world's population lives in areas where public water delivery systems are unreliable and/or deliver poor quality water. In response, people have developed important alternatives to publicly supplied water. To date, most water demand research has been based on single-equation models for a single source of water, with very few studies that have examined water demand from two sources of water (where all nonpublic system water sources have been aggregated into a single demand). This modeling approach leads to two outcomes. First, the demand models do not capture the full range of alternatives, so the true economic relationship among the alternatives is obscured. Second, and more seriously, economic theory predicts that demand for a good becomes more price-elastic as the number of close substitutes increases. If researchers artificially limit the number of alternatives studied to something less than the true number, the price elasticity estimate may be biased downward. This paper examines water demand in a region with near universal access to piped water, but where system reliability and quality is such that many alternative sources of water exist. In extending the demand analysis to four sources of water, we are able to (i) demonstrate why households choose the water sources they do, (ii) provide a richer description of the demand relationships among sources, and (iii) calculate own-price elasticity estimates that are more elastic than those generally found in the literature.

Population-Level Exposure to Particulate Air Pollution during Active Travel: Planning for Low-Exposure, Health-Promoting Cities.

PubMed

Hankey, Steve; Lindsey, Greg; Marshall, Julian D

2017-04-01

Providing infrastructure and land uses to encourage active travel (i.e., bicycling and walking) are promising strategies for designing health-promoting cities. Population-level exposure to air pollution during active travel is understudied. Our goals were a ) to investigate population-level patterns in exposure during active travel, based on spatial estimates of bicycle traffic, pedestrian traffic, and particulate concentrations; and b ) to assess how those exposure patterns are associated with the built environment. We employed facility-demand models (active travel) and land use regression models (particulate concentrations) to estimate block-level ( n = 13,604) exposure during rush-hour (1600-1800 hours) in Minneapolis, Minnesota. We used the model-derived estimates to identify land use patterns and characteristics of the street network that are health promoting. We also assessed how exposure is correlated with indicators of health disparities (e.g., household income, proportion of nonwhite residents). Our work uses population-level rates of active travel (i.e., traffic flows) rather than the probability of walking or biking (i.e., "walkability" or "bikeability") to assess exposure. Active travel often occurs on high-traffic streets or near activity centers where particulate concentrations are highest (i.e., 20-42% of active travel occurs on blocks with high population-level exposure). Only 2-3% of blocks (3-8% of total active travel) are "sweet spots" (i.e., high active travel, low particulate concentrations); sweet spots are located a ) near but slightly removed from the city-center or b ) on off-street trails. We identified 1,721 blocks (~ 20% of local roads) where shifting active travel from high-traffic roads to adjacent low-traffic roads would reduce exposure by ~ 15%. Active travel is correlated with population density, land use mix, open space, and retail area; particulate concentrations were mostly unchanged with land use. Public health officials and

Measuring the Social Recreation Per-Day Net Benefit of the Wildlife Amenities of a National Park: A Count-Data Travel-Cost Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendes, Isabel; Proença, Isabel

2011-11-01

In this article, we apply count-data travel-cost methods to a truncated sample of visitors to estimate the Peneda-Gerês National Park (PGNP) average consumer surplus (CS) for each day of visit. The measurement of recreation demand is highly specific because it is calculated by number of days of stay per visit. We therefore propose the application of altered truncated count-data models or truncated count-data models on grouped data to estimate a single, on-site individual recreation demand function, with the price (cost) of each recreation day per trip equal to out-of-pocket and time travel plus out-of-pocket and on-site time costs. We further check the sensitivity of coefficient estimations to alternative models and analyse the welfare measure precision by using the delta and simulation methods by Creel and Loomis. With simulated limits, CS is estimated to be €194 (range €116 to €448). This information is of use in the quest to improve government policy and PNPG management and conservation as well as promote nature-based tourism. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to measure the average recreation net benefits of each day of stay generated by a national park by using truncated altered and truncated grouped count-data travel-cost models based on observing the individual number of days of stay.

Measuring the social recreation per-day net benefit of the wildlife amenities of a national park: a count-data travel-cost approach.

PubMed

Mendes, Isabel; Proença, Isabel

2011-11-01

In this article, we apply count-data travel-cost methods to a truncated sample of visitors to estimate the Peneda-Gerês National Park (PGNP) average consumer surplus (CS) for each day of visit. The measurement of recreation demand is highly specific because it is calculated by number of days of stay per visit. We therefore propose the application of altered truncated count-data models or truncated count-data models on grouped data to estimate a single, on-site individual recreation demand function, with the price (cost) of each recreation day per trip equal to out-of-pocket and time travel plus out-of-pocket and on-site time costs. We further check the sensitivity of coefficient estimations to alternative models and analyse the welfare measure precision by using the delta and simulation methods by Creel and Loomis. With simulated limits, CS is estimated to be 194 (range 116 to 448). This information is of use in the quest to improve government policy and PNPG management and conservation as well as promote nature-based tourism. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to measure the average recreation net benefits of each day of stay generated by a national park by using truncated altered and truncated grouped count-data travel-cost models based on observing the individual number of days of stay.

An inventory model with random demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitsel, A. A.; Kritski, O. L.; Stavchuk, LG

2017-01-01

The article describes a three-product inventory model with random demand at equal frequencies of delivery. A feature of this model is that the additional purchase of resources required is carried out within the scope of their deficit. This fact allows reducing their storage costs. A simulation based on the data on arrival of raw and materials at an enterprise in Kazakhstan has been prepared. The proposed model is shown to enable savings up to 40.8% of working capital.

Comparing exponential and exponentiated models of drug demand in cocaine users.

PubMed

Strickland, Justin C; Lile, Joshua A; Rush, Craig R; Stoops, William W

2016-12-01

Drug purchase tasks provide rapid and efficient measurement of drug demand. Zero values (i.e., prices with zero consumption) present a quantitative challenge when using exponential demand models that exponentiated models may resolve. We aimed to replicate and advance the utility of using an exponentiated model by demonstrating construct validity (i.e., association with real-world drug use) and generalizability across drug commodities. Participants (N = 40 cocaine-using adults) completed Cocaine, Alcohol, and Cigarette Purchase Tasks evaluating hypothetical consumption across changes in price. Exponentiated and exponential models were fit to these data using different treatments of zero consumption values, including retaining zeros or replacing them with 0.1, 0.01, or 0.001. Excellent model fits were observed with the exponentiated model. Means and precision fluctuated with different replacement values when using the exponential model but were consistent for the exponentiated model. The exponentiated model provided the strongest correlation between derived demand intensity (Q0) and self-reported free consumption in all instances (Cocaine r = .88; Alcohol r = .97; Cigarette r = .91). Cocaine demand elasticity was positively correlated with alcohol and cigarette elasticity. Exponentiated parameters were associated with real-world drug use (e.g., weekly cocaine use) whereas these correlations were less consistent for exponential parameters. Our findings show that selection of zero replacement values affects demand parameters and their association with drug-use outcomes when using the exponential model but not the exponentiated model. This work supports the adoption of the exponentiated demand model by replicating improved fit and consistency and demonstrating construct validity and generalizability. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

A novel medical information management and decision model for uncertain demand optimization.

PubMed

Bi, Ya

2015-01-01

Accurately planning the procurement volume is an effective measure for controlling the medicine inventory cost. Due to uncertain demand it is difficult to make accurate decision on procurement volume. As to the biomedicine sensitive to time and season demand, the uncertain demand fitted by the fuzzy mathematics method is obviously better than general random distribution functions. To establish a novel medical information management and decision model for uncertain demand optimization. A novel optimal management and decision model under uncertain demand has been presented based on fuzzy mathematics and a new comprehensive improved particle swarm algorithm. The optimal management and decision model can effectively reduce the medicine inventory cost. The proposed improved particle swarm optimization is a simple and effective algorithm to improve the Fuzzy interference and hence effectively reduce the calculation complexity of the optimal management and decision model. Therefore the new model can be used for accurate decision on procurement volume under uncertain demand.

Model documentation report: Commercial Sector Demand Module of the National Energy Modeling System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1998-01-01

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Commercial Sector Demand Module. The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated through the synthesis and scenario development based on these components. The NEMS Commercial Sector Demand Module is a simulation tool based upon economic and engineering relationships that models commercial sector energy demands at the nine Census Division level of detail for eleven distinct categories of commercial buildings. Commercial equipment selections are performed for the major fuels of electricity, natural gas,more » and distillate fuel, for the major services of space heating, space cooling, water heating, ventilation, cooking, refrigeration, and lighting. The algorithm also models demand for the minor fuels of residual oil, liquefied petroleum gas, steam coal, motor gasoline, and kerosene, the renewable fuel sources of wood and municipal solid waste, and the minor services of office equipment. Section 2 of this report discusses the purpose of the model, detailing its objectives, primary input and output quantities, and the relationship of the Commercial Module to the other modules of the NEMS system. Section 3 of the report describes the rationale behind the model design, providing insights into further assumptions utilized in the model development process to this point. Section 3 also reviews alternative commercial sector modeling methodologies drawn from existing literature, providing a comparison to the chosen approach. Section 4 details the model structure, using graphics and text to illustrate model flows and key computations.« less

Effect of a Starting Model on the Solution of a Travel Time Seismic Tomography Problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yanovskaya, T. B.; Medvedev, S. V.; Gobarenko, V. S.

2018-03-01

In the problems of three-dimensional (3D) travel time seismic tomography where the data are travel times of diving waves and the starting model is a system of plane layers where the velocity is a function of depth alone, the solution turns out to strongly depend on the selection of the starting model. This is due to the fact that in the different starting models, the rays between the same points can intersect different layers, which makes the tomography problem fundamentally nonlinear. This effect is demonstrated by the model example. Based on the same example, it is shown how the starting model should be selected to ensure a solution close to the true velocity distribution. The starting model (the average dependence of the seismic velocity on depth) should be determined by the method of successive iterations at each step of which the horizontal velocity variations in the layers are determined by solving the two-dimensional tomography problem. An example illustrating the application of this technique to the P-wave travel time data in the region of the Black Sea basin is presented.

Model documentation report: Residential sector demand module of the national energy modeling system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach, and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Residential Sector Demand Module. The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and FORTRAN source code. This reference document provides a detailed description for energy analysts, other users, and the public. The NEMS Residential Sector Demand Module is currently used for mid-term forecasting purposes and energy policy analysis over the forecast horizon of 1993 through 2020. The model generates forecasts of energy demand for the residential sector by service, fuel, and Census Division. Policy impacts resulting from new technologies,more » market incentives, and regulatory changes can be estimated using the module. 26 refs., 6 figs., 5 tabs.« less

The Job Demands-Resources Model: An Analysis of Additive and Joint Effects of Demands and Resources

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hu, Qiao; Schaufeli, Wilmar B.; Taris, Toon W.

2011-01-01

The present study investigated the additive, synergistic, and moderating effects of job demands and job resources on well-being (burnout and work engagement) and organizational outcomes, as specified by the Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) model. A survey was conducted among two Chinese samples: 625 blue collar workers and 761 health professionals. A…

Calculating Path-Dependent Travel Time Prediction Variance and Covariance fro a Global Tomographic P-Velocity Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballard, S.; Hipp, J. R.; Encarnacao, A.; Young, C. J.; Begnaud, M. L.; Phillips, W. S.

2012-12-01

Seismic event locations can be made more accurate and precise by computing predictions of seismic travel time through high fidelity 3D models of the wave speed in the Earth's interior. Given the variable data quality and uneven data sampling associated with this type of model, it is essential that there be a means to calculate high-quality estimates of the path-dependent variance and covariance associated with the predicted travel times of ray paths through the model. In this paper, we describe a methodology for accomplishing this by exploiting the full model covariance matrix and show examples of path-dependent travel time prediction uncertainty computed from SALSA3D, our global, seamless 3D tomographic P-velocity model. Typical global 3D models have on the order of 1/2 million nodes, so the challenge in calculating the covariance matrix is formidable: 0.9 TB storage for 1/2 of a symmetric matrix, necessitating an Out-Of-Core (OOC) blocked matrix solution technique. With our approach the tomography matrix (G which includes Tikhonov regularization terms) is multiplied by its transpose (GTG) and written in a blocked sub-matrix fashion. We employ a distributed parallel solution paradigm that solves for (GTG)-1 by assigning blocks to individual processing nodes for matrix decomposition update and scaling operations. We first find the Cholesky decomposition of GTG which is subsequently inverted. Next, we employ OOC matrix multiplication methods to calculate the model covariance matrix from (GTG)-1 and an assumed data covariance matrix. Given the model covariance matrix, we solve for the travel-time covariance associated with arbitrary ray-paths by summing the model covariance along both ray paths. Setting the paths equal and taking the square root yields the travel prediction uncertainty for the single path.

Multiscale model for pedestrian and infection dynamics during air travel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Namilae, Sirish; Derjany, Pierrot; Mubayi, Anuj; Scotch, Mathew; Srinivasan, Ashok

2017-05-01

In this paper we develop a multiscale model combining social-force-based pedestrian movement with a population level stochastic infection transmission dynamics framework. The model is then applied to study the infection transmission within airplanes and the transmission of the Ebola virus through casual contacts. Drastic limitations on air-travel during epidemics, such as during the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa, carry considerable economic and human costs. We use the computational model to evaluate the effects of passenger movement within airplanes and air-travel policies on the geospatial spread of infectious diseases. We find that boarding policy by an airline is more critical for infection propagation compared to deplaning policy. Enplaning in two sections resulted in fewer infections than the currently followed strategy with multiple zones. In addition, we found that small commercial airplanes are better than larger ones at reducing the number of new infections in a flight. Aggregated results indicate that passenger movement strategies and airplane size predicted through these network models can have significant impact on an event like the 2014 Ebola epidemic. The methodology developed here is generic and can be readily modified to incorporate the impact from the outbreak of other directly transmitted infectious diseases.

Accounting for Water Insecurity in Modeling Domestic Water Demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galaitsis, S. E.; Huber-lee, A. T.; Vogel, R. M.; Naumova, E.

2013-12-01

Water demand management uses price elasticity estimates to predict consumer demand in relation to water pricing changes, but studies have shown that many additional factors effect water consumption. Development scholars document the need for water security, however, much of the water security literature focuses on broad policies which can influence water demand. Previous domestic water demand studies have not considered how water security can affect a population's consumption behavior. This study is the first to model the influence of water insecurity on water demand. A subjective indicator scale measuring water insecurity among consumers in the Palestinian West Bank is developed and included as a variable to explore how perceptions of control, or lack thereof, impact consumption behavior and resulting estimates of price elasticity. A multivariate regression model demonstrates the significance of a water insecurity variable for data sets encompassing disparate water access. When accounting for insecurity, the R-squaed value improves and the marginal price a household is willing to pay becomes a significant predictor for the household quantity consumption. The model denotes that, with all other variables held equal, a household will buy more water when the users are more water insecure. Though the reasons behind this trend require further study, the findings suggest broad policy implications by demonstrating that water distribution practices in scarcity conditions can promote consumer welfare and efficient water use.

Code for Calculating Regional Seismic Travel Time

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

BALLARD, SANFORD; HIPP, JAMES; & BARKER, GLENN

The RSTT software computes predictions of the travel time of seismic energy traveling from a source to a receiver through 2.5D models of the seismic velocity distribution within the Earth. The two primary applications for the RSTT library are tomographic inversion studies and seismic event location calculations. In tomographic inversions studies, a seismologist begins with number of source-receiver travel time observations and an initial starting model of the velocity distribution within the Earth. A forward travel time calculator, such as the RSTT library, is used to compute predictions of each observed travel time and all of the residuals (observed minusmore » predicted travel time) are calculated. The Earth model is then modified in some systematic way with the goal of minimizing the residuals. The Earth model obtained in this way is assumed to be a better model than the starting model if it has lower residuals. The other major application for the RSTT library is seismic event location. Given an Earth model, an initial estimate of the location of a seismic event, and some number of observations of seismic travel time thought to have originated from that event, location codes systematically modify the estimate of the location of the event with the goal of minimizing the difference between the observed and predicted travel times. The second application, seismic event location, is routinely implemented by the military as part of its effort to monitor the Earth for nuclear tests conducted by foreign countries.« less

Traveling-Wave Tubes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kory, Carol L.

1998-01-01

The traveling-wave tube (TWT) is a vacuum device invented in the early 1940's used for amplification at microwave frequencies. Amplification is attained by surrendering kinetic energy from an electron beam to a radio frequency (RF) electromagnetic wave. The demand for vacuum devices has been decreased largely by the advent of solid-state devices. However, although solid state devices have replaced vacuum devices in many areas, there are still many applications such as radar, electronic countermeasures and satellite communications, that require operating characteristics such as high power (Watts to Megawatts), high frequency (below 1 GHz to over 100 GHz) and large bandwidth that only vacuum devices can provide. Vacuum devices are also deemed irreplaceable in the music industry where musicians treasure their tube-based amplifiers claiming that the solid-state and digital counterparts could never provide the same "warmth" (3). The term traveling-wave tube includes both fast-wave and slow-wave devices. This article will concentrate on slow-wave devices as the vast majority of TWTs in operation fall into this category.

Accurate Time-Dependent Traveling-Wave Tube Model Developed for Computational Bit-Error-Rate Testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kory, Carol L.

2001-01-01

The phenomenal growth of the satellite communications industry has created a large demand for traveling-wave tubes (TWT's) operating with unprecedented specifications requiring the design and production of many novel devices in record time. To achieve this, the TWT industry heavily relies on computational modeling. However, the TWT industry's computational modeling capabilities need to be improved because there are often discrepancies between measured TWT data and that predicted by conventional two-dimensional helical TWT interaction codes. This limits the analysis and design of novel devices or TWT's with parameters differing from what is conventionally manufactured. In addition, the inaccuracy of current computational tools limits achievable TWT performance because optimized designs require highly accurate models. To address these concerns, a fully three-dimensional, time-dependent, helical TWT interaction model was developed using the electromagnetic particle-in-cell code MAFIA (Solution of MAxwell's equations by the Finite-Integration-Algorithm). The model includes a short section of helical slow-wave circuit with excitation fed by radiofrequency input/output couplers, and an electron beam contained by periodic permanent magnet focusing. A cutaway view of several turns of the three-dimensional helical slow-wave circuit with input/output couplers is shown. This has been shown to be more accurate than conventionally used two-dimensional models. The growth of the communications industry has also imposed a demand for increased data rates for the transmission of large volumes of data. To achieve increased data rates, complex modulation and multiple access techniques are employed requiring minimum distortion of the signal as it is passed through the TWT. Thus, intersymbol interference (ISI) becomes a major consideration, as well as suspected causes such as reflections within the TWT. To experimentally investigate effects of the physical TWT on ISI would be

Vaccinations for international travellers travelling from Greece.

PubMed

Pavli, Androula; Spilioti, Athina; Lymperi, Ioanna; Katerelos, Panagiotis; Maltezou, Helena C

2013-01-01

The aim of this prospective, questionnaire-based study is to assess pre-travel vaccinations for international travellers who receive pre-travel advice in Greece. A total of 2494 travellers were studied from January 1, 2009 through December 31, 2010. Travellers sought pre-travel advice at a median of 16 days (range: 0-349 days) before departure. Sub-Saharan Africa was the most common destination (34.7%). Most travellers (60.8%) travelled for <1 month, for recreation purposes (58.9%), stayed in hotels (65.3%), and in urban areas (53.6%). Yellow fever, tetravalent meningococcal, typhoid fever, cholera, and rabies vaccines were administered to 1629 (65.3%), 666 (26.7%), 615 (24.7%), 28 (1.1%), and/or 12 (0.5%) travellers, respectively. Of those who received Yellow fever vaccine, 737 (45.2%) travelled to sub-Saharan Africa, 332 (20.4%) travelled to South America, 949 (58.3%) stayed for short term, and 762 (46.8%) stayed in urban areas. Of the 1629 travellers vaccinated against Yellow fever, 150 (9.2%) and 226 (13.8%) travelled to areas of sub-Saharan Africa and South America respectively, where the vaccine is not or generally not recommended. Of those travellers who received meningococcal vaccine, 327 (49.1%) travelled to the Middle East for the Hajj, 251 (29%) travelled to sub-Saharan Africa, 410 (61.6%) for short term, and 540 (64.4%) stayed in urban areas. Of those travellers who received typhoid vaccine, 241 (39.2%) travelled to sub-Saharan Africa, 78 (12.7%) to the Indian subcontinent, 234 (38%) for short term, and 419 (68.1%) stayed in urban areas. Regarding routine vaccines, tetanus-diphtheria, poliomyelitis, and measles-mumps-rubella vaccines were administered to 707 (28.3%), 639 (25.6%) and/or 149 (6%) travellers, respectively. Of those to whom poliomyelitis vaccine was recommended, 295 (46.2%) and 137 (21.4%) travelled to sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East, respectively, and 362 (56.7%) travelled for short term. In conclusion, this study revealed that

The future of transportation planning : dynamic travel behavior analyses based on stochastic decision-making styles : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2003-08-01

Over the past half-century, the progress of travel behavior research and travel demand forecasting has been spear : headed and continuously propelled by the micro-economic theories, specifically utility maximization. There is no : denial that the tra...

Seismic Travel Time Tomography in Modeling Low Velocity Anomalies between the Boreholes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Octova, A.; Sule, R.

2018-04-01

Travel time cross-hole seismic tomography is applied to describing the structure of the subsurface. The sources are placed at one borehole and some receivers are placed in the others. First arrival travel time data that received by each receiver is used as the input data in seismic tomography method. This research is devided into three steps. The first step is reconstructing the synthetic model based on field parameters. Field parameters are divided into 24 receivers and 45 receivers. The second step is applying inversion process for the field data that consists of five pairs bore holes. The last step is testing quality of tomogram with resolution test. Data processing using FAST software produces an explicit shape and resemble the initial model reconstruction of synthetic model with 45 receivers. The tomography processing in field data indicates cavities in several place between the bore holes. Cavities are identified on BH2A-BH1, BH4A-BH2A and BH4A-BH5 with elongated and rounded structure. In resolution tests using a checker-board, anomalies still can be identified up to 2 meter x 2 meter size. Travel time cross-hole seismic tomography analysis proves this mothod is very good to describing subsurface structure and boundary layer. Size and anomalies position can be recognized and interpreted easily.

Kinetic Monte Carlo simulations of travelling pulses and spiral waves in the lattice Lotka-Volterra model.

PubMed

Makeev, Alexei G; Kurkina, Elena S; Kevrekidis, Ioannis G

2012-06-01

Kinetic Monte Carlo simulations are used to study the stochastic two-species Lotka-Volterra model on a square lattice. For certain values of the model parameters, the system constitutes an excitable medium: travelling pulses and rotating spiral waves can be excited. Stable solitary pulses travel with constant (modulo stochastic fluctuations) shape and speed along a periodic lattice. The spiral waves observed persist sometimes for hundreds of rotations, but they are ultimately unstable and break-up (because of fluctuations and interactions between neighboring fronts) giving rise to complex dynamic behavior in which numerous small spiral waves rotate and interact with each other. It is interesting that travelling pulses and spiral waves can be exhibited by the model even for completely immobile species, due to the non-local reaction kinetics.

Estimating Travel Time in Bank Filtration Systems from a Numerical Model Based on DTS Measurements.

PubMed

des Tombe, Bas F; Bakker, Mark; Schaars, Frans; van der Made, Kees-Jan

2018-03-01

An approach is presented to determine the seasonal variations in travel time in a bank filtration system using a passive heat tracer test. The temperature in the aquifer varies seasonally because of temperature variations of the infiltrating surface water and at the soil surface. Temperature was measured with distributed temperature sensing along fiber optic cables that were inserted vertically into the aquifer with direct push equipment. The approach was applied to a bank filtration system consisting of a sequence of alternating, elongated recharge basins and rows of recovery wells. A SEAWAT model was developed to simulate coupled flow and heat transport. The model of a two-dimensional vertical cross section is able to simulate the temperature of the water at the well and the measured vertical temperature profiles reasonably well. MODPATH was used to compute flowpaths and the travel time distribution. At the study site, temporal variation of the pumping discharge was the dominant factor influencing the travel time distribution. For an equivalent system with a constant pumping rate, variations in the travel time distribution are caused by variations in the temperature-dependent viscosity. As a result, travel times increase in the winter, when a larger fraction of the water travels through the warmer, lower part of the aquifer, and decrease in the summer, when the upper part of the aquifer is warmer. © 2017 The Authors. Groundwater published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of National Ground Water Association.

A novel contact model of piezoelectric traveling wave rotary ultrasonic motors with the finite volume method.

PubMed

Renteria-Marquez, I A; Renteria-Marquez, A; Tseng, B T L

2018-06-06

The operating principle of the piezoelectric traveling wave rotary ultrasonic motor is based on two energy conversion processes: the generation of the stator traveling wave and the rectification of the stator movement through the stator-rotor contact mechanism. This paper presents a methodology to model in detail the stator-rotor contact interface of these motors. A contact algorithm that couples a model of the stator which is discretized with the finite volume method and an analytical model of the rotor is presented. The outputs of the proposed model are the normal and tangential force distribution produced at the stator-rotor contact interface, contact length, height and shape of the stator traveling wave and rotor speed. The torque-speed characteristic of the USR60 is calculated with the proposed model, and the results of the model are compared versus the real torque-speed of the motor. A good agreement between the proposed model results and the torque-speed characteristic of the USR60 was observed. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Traveling-Wave Tube Amplifier Model to Predict High-Order Modulation Intersymbol Interference

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kory, Carol L.; Andro, Monty; Williams, W. D. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Demands for increased data rates in satellite communications necessitate higher order modulation schemes, larger system bandwidth, and minimum distortion of the modulated signal as it is passed through the traveling wave tube amplifier (TWTA). One type of distortion that the TWTA contributes to is intersymbol interference (ISI), and this becomes particularly disruptive with wide-band, complex modulation schemes. It is suspected that in addition to the dispersion of the TWT, frequency dependent reflections due to mismatches within the TWT are a significant contributor to ISI. To experimentally investigate the effect of these mismatches within the physical TWT on ISI would be prohibitively expensive, as it would require manufacturing numerous amplifiers in addition to the acquisition of the required digital hardware. In an attempt to develop a more accurate model to correlate IS1 with the TWTA and the operational signal, a fully three-dimensional (3D), time-dependent, TWT interaction model has been developed using the electromagnetic particle-in-cell (PIC) code MAFIA (solution of Maxwell's equations by the Finite-Integration-Algorithm). The model includes a user defined slow-wave circuit with a spatially tapered region of loss to implement a sever, and spatially varied geometry (such as helical pitch) to implement a phase velocity taper. The model also includes user defined input/output coupling and an electron beam contained by solenoidal, electrostatic, or periodic permanent magnet (PPM) focusing allowing standard or novel TWTs to be investigated. This model comprehensively takes into account the effects of frequency dependent nonlinear distortions (MAM and AMPM); gain ripple due to frequency dependent reflections at the input/output coupling, severs, and mismatches from dynamic pitch variations; drive induced oscillations; harmonic generation; intermodulation products; and backward waves.

A Regional Seismic Travel Time Model for North America

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-09-01

velocity at the Moho, the mantle velocity gradient, and the average crustal velocity. After tomography across Eurasia, rigorous tests find that Pn...velocity gradient, and the average crustal velocity. After tomography across Eurasia rigorous tests find that Pn travel time residuals are reduced...and S-wave velocity in the crustal layers and in the upper mantle. A good prior model is essential because the RSTT tomography inversion is invariably

Path-Dependent Travel Time Prediction Variance and Covariance for a Global Tomographic P- and S-Velocity Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hipp, J. R.; Ballard, S.; Begnaud, M. L.; Encarnacao, A. V.; Young, C. J.; Phillips, W. S.

2015-12-01

Recently our combined SNL-LANL research team has succeeded in developing a global, seamless 3D tomographic P- and S-velocity model (SALSA3D) that provides superior first P and first S travel time predictions at both regional and teleseismic distances. However, given the variable data quality and uneven data sampling associated with this type of model, it is essential that there be a means to calculate high-quality estimates of the path-dependent variance and covariance associated with the predicted travel times of ray paths through the model. In this paper, we describe a methodology for accomplishing this by exploiting the full model covariance matrix and show examples of path-dependent travel time prediction uncertainty computed from our latest tomographic model. Typical global 3D SALSA3D models have on the order of 1/2 million nodes, so the challenge in calculating the covariance matrix is formidable: 0.9 TB storage for 1/2 of a symmetric matrix, necessitating an Out-Of-Core (OOC) blocked matrix solution technique. With our approach the tomography matrix (G which includes a prior model covariance constraint) is multiplied by its transpose (GTG) and written in a blocked sub-matrix fashion. We employ a distributed parallel solution paradigm that solves for (GTG)-1 by assigning blocks to individual processing nodes for matrix decomposition update and scaling operations. We first find the Cholesky decomposition of GTG which is subsequently inverted. Next, we employ OOC matrix multiplication methods to calculate the model covariance matrix from (GTG)-1 and an assumed data covariance matrix. Given the model covariance matrix, we solve for the travel-time covariance associated with arbitrary ray-paths by summing the model covariance along both ray paths. Setting the paths equal and taking the square root yields the travel prediction uncertainty for the single path.

A Model for Measured Traveling Waves at End-Diastole in Human Heart Wall by Ultrasonic Imaging Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bekki, Naoaki; Shintani, Seine A.; Ishiwata, Shin'ichi; Kanai, Hiroshi

2016-04-01

We observe traveling waves, measured by the ultrasonic noninvasive imaging method, in a longitudinal beam direction from the apex to the base side on the interventricular septum (IVS) during the period from the end-diastole to the beginning of systole for a healthy human heart wall. We present a possible phenomenological model to explain part of one-dimensional cardiac behaviors for the observed traveling waves around the time of R-wave of echocardiography (ECG) in the human heart. Although the observed two-dimensional patterns of traveling waves are extremely complex and no one knows yet the exact solutions for the traveling homoclinic plane wave in the one-dimensional complex Ginzburg-Landau equation (CGLE), we numerically find that part of the one-dimensional homoclinic dynamics of the phase and amplitude patterns in the observed traveling waves is similar to that of the numerical homoclinic plane-wave solutions in the CGLE with periodic boundary condition in a certain parameter space. It is suggested that part of the cardiac dynamics of the traveling waves on the IVS can be qualitatively described by the CGLE model as a paradigm for understanding biophysical nonlinear phenomena.

Cloud-based design of high average power traveling wave linacs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kutsaev, S. V.; Eidelman, Y.; Bruhwiler, D. L.; Moeller, P.; Nagler, R.; Barbe Welzel, J.

2017-12-01

The design of industrial high average power traveling wave linacs must accurately consider some specific effects. For example, acceleration of high current beam reduces power flow in the accelerating waveguide. Space charge may influence the stability of longitudinal or transverse beam dynamics. Accurate treatment of beam loading is central to the design of high-power TW accelerators, and it is especially difficult to model in the meter-scale region where the electrons are nonrelativistic. Currently, there are two types of available codes: tracking codes (e.g. PARMELA or ASTRA) that cannot solve self-consistent problems, and particle-in-cell codes (e.g. Magic 3D or CST Particle Studio) that can model the physics correctly but are very time-consuming and resource-demanding. Hellweg is a special tool for quick and accurate electron dynamics simulation in traveling wave accelerating structures. The underlying theory of this software is based on the differential equations of motion. The effects considered in this code include beam loading, space charge forces, and external magnetic fields. We present the current capabilities of the code, provide benchmarking results, and discuss future plans. We also describe the browser-based GUI for executing Hellweg in the cloud.

Improvements of Travel-time Tomography Models from Joint Inversion of Multi-channel and Wide-angle Seismic Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Begović, Slaven; Ranero, César; Sallarès, Valentí; Meléndez, Adrià; Grevemeyer, Ingo

2016-04-01

Commonly multichannel seismic reflection (MCS) and wide-angle seismic (WAS) data are modeled and interpreted with different approaches. Conventional travel-time tomography models using solely WAS data lack the resolution to define the model properties and, particularly, the geometry of geologic boundaries (reflectors) with the required accuracy, specially in the shallow complex upper geological layers. We plan to mitigate this issue by combining these two different data sets, specifically taking advantage of the high redundancy of multichannel seismic (MCS) data, integrated with wide-angle seismic (WAS) data into a common inversion scheme to obtain higher-resolution velocity models (Vp), decrease Vp uncertainty and improve the geometry of reflectors. To do so, we have adapted the tomo2d and tomo3d joint refraction and reflection travel time tomography codes (Korenaga et al, 2000; Meléndez et al, 2015) to deal with streamer data and MCS acquisition geometries. The scheme results in a joint travel-time tomographic inversion based on integrated travel-time information from refracted and reflected phases from WAS data and reflected identified in the MCS common depth point (CDP) or shot gathers. To illustrate the advantages of a common inversion approach we have compared the modeling results for synthetic data sets using two different travel-time inversion strategies: We have produced seismic velocity models and reflector geometries following typical refraction and reflection travel-time tomographic strategy modeling just WAS data with a typical acquisition geometry (one OBS each 10 km). Second, we performed joint inversion of two types of seismic data sets, integrating two coincident data sets consisting of MCS data collected with a 8 km-long streamer and the WAS data into a common inversion scheme. Our synthetic results of the joint inversion indicate a 5-10 times smaller ray travel-time misfit in the deeper parts of the model, compared to models obtained using just

Travel Health Advisory Group: a joint travel industry and travel health Special Interest Group promoting healthy travel in Australia.

PubMed

Leggat, Peter A; Zwar, Nicholas; Hudson, Bernie

2012-09-01

The Travel Health Advisory Group (THAG), established in 1997, is a joint initiative between the travel industry and travel health professionals in Australia that aims to promote healthy travel. THAG seeks to promote cooperation in improving the health of travellers between the travel industry and travel medicine professionals and to raise public awareness of the importance of travel health. From 2011, THAG has been a Special Interest Group of The Australasian College of Tropical Medicine and its membership has been active in several areas, including web-based travel health information, travel health promotion, media releases, research and education in Australia. Information is given on the objectives, membership and an overview of the various activities of the group. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Freight model improvement project for ECWRPC.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-08-01

In early 2009 WisDOT, HNTB and ECWRPC completed the first phase of the Northeast Region Travel Demand Model. : While the model includes a truck trip generation based on the quick response freight manual, the model lacks enough : truck classification ...

School of Travel: An Exploration of the Convergence of Andragogy and Travel.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roberson, Donald N., Jr.

Travel can incorporate issues of adult education; in fact, andragogy can provide the impetus for education in a new school of travel. Knowles' andragogical model (1984) is comprised of these five tenets: the learner is self-directing and in charge; the learner's background and individual experiences are taken into consideration; a readiness and…

Nonlinear refraction and reflection travel time tomography

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhang, Jiahua; ten Brink, Uri S.; Toksoz, M.N.

1998-01-01

We develop a rapid nonlinear travel time tomography method that simultaneously inverts refraction and reflection travel times on a regular velocity grid. For travel time and ray path calculations, we apply a wave front method employing graph theory. The first-arrival refraction travel times are calculated on the basis of cell velocities, and the later refraction and reflection travel times are computed using both cell velocities and given interfaces. We solve a regularized nonlinear inverse problem. A Laplacian operator is applied to regularize the model parameters (cell slownesses and reflector geometry) so that the inverse problem is valid for a continuum. The travel times are also regularized such that we invert travel time curves rather than travel time points. A conjugate gradient method is applied to minimize the nonlinear objective function. After obtaining a solution, we perform nonlinear Monte Carlo inversions for uncertainty analysis and compute the posterior model covariance. In numerical experiments, we demonstrate that combining the first arrival refraction travel times with later reflection travel times can better reconstruct the velocity field as well as the reflector geometry. This combination is particularly important for modeling crustal structures where large velocity variations occur in the upper crust. We apply this approach to model the crustal structure of the California Borderland using ocean bottom seismometer and land data collected during the Los Angeles Region Seismic Experiment along two marine survey lines. Details of our image include a high-velocity zone under the Catalina Ridge, but a smooth gradient zone between. Catalina Ridge and San Clemente Ridge. The Moho depth is about 22 km with lateral variations. Copyright 1998 by the American Geophysical Union.

Self-Efficacy and Workaholism as Initiators of the Job Demands-Resources Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Guglielmi, Dina; Simbula, Silvia; Schaufeli, Wilmar B.; Depolo, Marco

2012-01-01

Purpose: This study aims to investigate school principals' well-being by using the job demands-resources (JD-R) model as a theoretical framework. It aims at making a significant contribution to the development of this model by considering not only job demands and job resources, but also the role of personal resources and personal demands as…

The Integrated Airport Competition Model, 1998

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Veldhuis, J.; Essers, I.; Bakker, D.; Cohn, N.; Kroes, E.

1999-01-01

This paper addresses recent model development by the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) and Hague Consulting Group (HCG) concerning long-distance travel, Long-distance travel demand is growing very quickly and raising a great deal of economic and policy issues. There is increasing competition among the main Western European airports, and smaller, regional airports are fighting for market share. New modes of transport, such as high speed rail, arc also coming into the picture and affect the mode split for medium distance transport within Europe. Developments such as these are demanding the attention of policy makers and a tool is required for their analysis. For DGCA, Hague Consulting Group has developed a model system to provide answers to the policy questions posed by these expected trends, and to identify areas where policy makers can influence the traveller choices. The development of this model system, the Integrated Airport Competition Model/Integral Luchthaven Competitive Model (ILCM), began in 1992. Since that time the sub-models, input data and user interface have been expanded, updated and improved. HCG and DGCA have transformed the ILCM from a prototype into an operational forecasting tool.

The Integrated Airport Competition Model, 1998

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Veldhuis, J.; Essers, I.; Bakker, D.; Cohn, N.; Kroes, E.

1999-01-01

This paper addresses recent model development by the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) and Hague Consulting Group (HCG) concerning long-distance travel. Long-distance travel demand is growing very quickly and raising a great deal of economic and policy issues. There is increasing competition among the main Western European airports, and smaller, regional airports are fighting for market share. New modes of transport, such as high speed rail, are also coming into the picture and affect the mode split for medium distance transport within Europe. Developments such as these are demanding the attention of policy makers and a tool is required for their analysis. For DGCA, Hague Consulting Group has developed a model system to provide answers to the policy questions posed by these expected trends, and to identify areas where policy makers can influence the traveller choices. The development of this model system, the Integrated Airport Competition Model/integraal Luchthaven Competitie Model (ILCM), began in 1992. Since that time the sub-models, input data and user interface have been expanded, updated and improved. HCG and DGCA have transformed the ILCM from a prototype into an operational forecasting tool.

Regional models of bicycle and pedestrian travel in Chittenden County, Vermont.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-02-01

Encouraging travelers to walk and bicycle in lieu of motorized modes of travel : benefits both the traveler and the community at large. The traveler benefits from : health improvements that have been shown to accompany increases in physical : activit...

Travel-related health problems in Japanese travelers.

PubMed

Mizuno, Yasutaka; Kudo, Koichiro

2009-09-01

Although the number of Japanese individuals traveling abroad has increased steadily, reaching approximately 17.3 million in 2007, the incidence of various travel-related health problems in Japan remains unknown. The travel-related health problems of Japanese travelers returning to Japan from abroad are analyzed by assessing the records. Data were collected retrospectively on returning travelers who visited the authors' travel clinic during the period from January 2005 through to December 2006 with any health problem acquired overseas. A total of 345 patients were included in this study (200 male, 145 female; average age, 34+/-12.3 years). Reasons for travel included leisure (45.8%); business (39.1%); visiting friends and relatives or accompanying other travelers (8.7%); volunteering (3.8%); and long stays in order to study or live (2.6%). The most visited destination was Asia (n=260), followed by Africa (n=105). The most commonly reported health problems were gastro-intestinal infections (39.1%), followed by respiratory tract infections (16.2%), animal bites (8.1%), and skin problems (5.8%). Together, malaria and dengue accounted for 10% of diagnoses in 125 febrile patients (36.2%). Although the profile of travel-related health problems in Japanese travelers is similar to that of Western travelers, the characteristics of travel were quite different. Therefore Japanese travel advice should be tailored to suit the Japanese traveler.

Distance traveled for Medicaid-covered abortion care in California.

PubMed

Johns, Nicole E; Foster, Diana Greene; Upadhyay, Ushma D

2017-04-19

Access to abortion care in the United States is limited by the availability of abortion providers and their geographic distribution. We aimed to assess how far women travel for Medicaid-funded abortion in California and identify disparities in access to abortion care. We obtained data on all abortions reimbursed by the fee-for-service California state Medicaid program (Medi-Cal) in 2011 and 2012 and examined distance traveled to obtain abortion care by several demographic and abortion-related factors. Mixed-effects multivariable logistic regression models were constructed to examine factors associated with traveling 50 miles or more. County-level t-tests and linear regressions were conducted to examine the effects of a Medi-Cal abortion provider in a county on overall and urban/rural differences in utilization. 11.9% (95% CI: 11.5-12.2%) of women traveled 50 miles or more. Women obtaining second trimester or later abortions (21.7%), women obtaining abortions at hospitals (19.9%), and rural women (51.0%) were most likely to travel 50 miles or more. Across the state, 28 counties, home to 10% of eligible women, did not have a facility routinely providing Medi-Cal-covered abortions. Efforts are needed to expand the number of abortion providers that accept Medi-Cal. This could be accomplished by increasing Medi-Cal reimbursement rates, increasing the types of providers who can provide abortions, and expanding the use of telemedicine. If national trends in declining unintended pregnancy and abortion rates continue, careful attention should be paid to ensure that reduced demand does not lead to greater disparities in geographic and financial access to abortion care by ensuring that providers accepting Medicaid payment are available and widely distributed.

Energy demand and environmental implications in urban transport — Case of Delhi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bose, Ranjan Kumar

A simple model of passenger transport in the city of Delhi has been developed using a computer-based software called—Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) and the associated Environmental Database (EDB) model. The hierarchical structure of LEAP represents the traffic patterns in terms of passenger travel demand, mode (rail/road), type of vehicle and occupancy (persons per vehicle). Transport database in Delhi together with fuel consumption values for the vehicle types, formed the basis of the transport demand and energy consumption calculations. Emission factors corresponding to the actual vehicle types and driving conditions in Delhi is introduced into the EDB and linked to the energy consumption values for estimating total emission of CO, HC, NO x, SO 2 Pb and TSP. The LEAP model is used to estimate total energy demand and the vehicular emissions for the base year-1990/91 and extrapolate for the future—1994/95, 2000/01, 2004/05 and 2009/10, respectively. The model is run under five alternative scenarios to study the impact of different urban transport policy initiatives that would reduce total energy requirement in the transport sector of Delhi and also reduce emission. The prime objective is to arrive at an optimal transport policy which limits the future growth of fuel consumption as well as air pollution.

German travelers' preferences for travel vaccines assessed by a discrete choice experiment.

PubMed

Poulos, Christine; Curran, Desmond; Anastassopoulou, Anastassia; De Moerlooze, Laurence

2018-02-08

Many travelers to regions with endemic infectious diseases do not follow health authorities' recommendations regarding vaccination against vaccine-preventable infectious diseases, before traveling. The determinants of individual travelers' decisions to vaccinate before traveling are largely unknown. This study aimed to provide this information using a discrete choice experiment (DCE) administered to four types of German travelers: (1) business travelers; (2) travelers visiting friends and relatives (VFR); (3) leisure travelers; and (4) backpackers. A DCE survey was developed, pretested and administered online. It included a series of choice questions in which respondents chose between two hypothetical vaccines, each characterized by four disease attributes with varying levels describing the of risk, health impact, curability and transmissibility of the disease they would prevent (described with four disease attributes with varying levels of risk, health impact, curability and transmissibility), and varying levels of four vaccine attributes (duration of protection, number of doses required, time required for vaccination, and vaccine cost). A random-parameters logit model was used to estimate the importance weights each traveler type placed on the various attribute levels. These weights were used to calculate mean monetary equivalents (MMEs) of changes in each attribute (holding all others constant) and of hypothetical disease-vaccine combinations. All traveler types' choices indicated that they attached the greatest importance to the risk and health impact of disease and to the vaccine cost whereas the other disease and vaccine attributes were less important for their decisions about travel vaccines. An option of not choosing any of the vaccine-pairs presented was rarely selected indicating that travelers' generally prefer to be vaccinated rather than not. The MMEs of changes in vaccine attributes indicated a very high variability between the individual travelers

Distributed Generation Market Demand Model (dGen): Documentation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sigrin, Benjamin; Gleason, Michael; Preus, Robert

The Distributed Generation Market Demand model (dGen) is a geospatially rich, bottom-up, market-penetration model that simulates the potential adoption of distributed energy resources (DERs) for residential, commercial, and industrial entities in the continental United States through 2050. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed dGen to analyze the key factors that will affect future market demand for distributed solar, wind, storage, and other DER technologies in the United States. The new model builds off, extends, and replaces NREL's SolarDS model (Denholm et al. 2009a), which simulates the market penetration of distributed PV only. Unlike the SolarDS model, dGen can modelmore » various DER technologies under one platform--it currently can simulate the adoption of distributed solar (the dSolar module) and distributed wind (the dWind module) and link with the ReEDS capacity expansion model (Appendix C). The underlying algorithms and datasets in dGen, which improve the representation of customer decision making as well as the spatial resolution of analyses (Figure ES-1), also are improvements over SolarDS.« less

Development of S-ARIMA Model for Forecasting Demand in a Beverage Supply Chain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mircetic, Dejan; Nikolicic, Svetlana; Maslaric, Marinko; Ralevic, Nebojsa; Debelic, Borna

2016-11-01

Demand forecasting is one of the key activities in planning the freight flows in supply chains, and accordingly it is essential for planning and scheduling of logistic activities within observed supply chain. Accurate demand forecasting models directly influence the decrease of logistics costs, since they provide an assessment of customer demand. Customer demand is a key component for planning all logistic processes in supply chain, and therefore determining levels of customer demand is of great interest for supply chain managers. In this paper we deal with exactly this kind of problem, and we develop the seasonal Autoregressive IntegratedMoving Average (SARIMA) model for forecasting demand patterns of a major product of an observed beverage company. The model is easy to understand, flexible to use and appropriate for assisting the expert in decision making process about consumer demand in particular periods.

Alternative Transportation System Demand Estimation for Federal Land Management Agencies.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-09-30

Estimating travel demand for alternative transportation systems (ATS) is challenging in any context, but is even more daunting for Federal Land Management Agencies (FLMAs). Federal public land sites vary widely in their characteristics. Moreover, tra...

Implementation of a mezzo-level HOV carpool model for Texas. Final report, September 1986-April 1990

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Benson, J.D.; Mullins, J.A.; Stokes, R.W.

1989-11-01

The report presents the results of an evaluation and adaptation of three existing high-occupancy vehicle (HOV) lane carpool demand estimation models for possible use in Houston and other large Texas cities. These models use trip tables, networks and zone structures that are consistent with the regional travel demand modeling process currently in use in Texas. By implementing the HOV carpool models in a structure that is consistent with the regional travel demand modeling process, it is possible to estimate the carpool demand for an HOV facility and to evaluate the effects of the following changes in HOV lane configuration andmore » operating strategies: (1) Effects of additional and/or alternative access points; (2) Effects of extending and HOV lane; and (3) Effects of changing the definition of eligible HOV carpools. The models have produced promising results in test applications in Houston.« less

Winter weather demand considerations.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-04-01

Winter weather has varied effects on travel behavior. Using 418 survey responses from the Northern Virginia : commuting area of Washington, D.C. and binary logit models, this study examines travel related changes under : different types of winter wea...

Numerical Study of Periodic Traveling Wave Solutions for the Predator-Prey Model with Landscape Features

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yun, Ana; Shin, Jaemin; Li, Yibao; Lee, Seunggyu; Kim, Junseok

We numerically investigate periodic traveling wave solutions for a diffusive predator-prey system with landscape features. The landscape features are modeled through the homogeneous Dirichlet boundary condition which is imposed at the edge of the obstacle domain. To effectively treat the Dirichlet boundary condition, we employ a robust and accurate numerical technique by using a boundary control function. We also propose a robust algorithm for calculating the numerical periodicity of the traveling wave solution. In numerical experiments, we show that periodic traveling waves which move out and away from the obstacle are effectively generated. We explain the formation of the traveling waves by comparing the wavelengths. The spatial asynchrony has been shown in quantitative detail for various obstacles. Furthermore, we apply our numerical technique to the complicated real landscape features.

Developing and Validating Path-Dependent Uncertainty Estimates for use with the Regional Seismic Travel Time (RSTT) Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Begnaud, M. L.; Anderson, D. N.; Phillips, W. S.; Myers, S. C.; Ballard, S.

2016-12-01

The Regional Seismic Travel Time (RSTT) tomography model has been developed to improve travel time predictions for regional phases (Pn, Sn, Pg, Lg) in order to increase seismic location accuracy, especially for explosion monitoring. The RSTT model is specifically designed to exploit regional phases for location, especially when combined with teleseismic arrivals. The latest RSTT model (version 201404um) has been released (http://www.sandia.gov/rstt). Travel time uncertainty estimates for RSTT are determined using one-dimensional (1D), distance-dependent error models, that have the benefit of being very fast to use in standard location algorithms, but do not account for path-dependent variations in error, and structural inadequacy of the RSTTT model (e.g., model error). Although global in extent, the RSTT tomography model is only defined in areas where data exist. A simple 1D error model does not accurately model areas where RSTT has not been calibrated. We are developing and validating a new error model for RSTT phase arrivals by mathematically deriving this multivariate model directly from a unified model of RSTT embedded into a statistical random effects model that captures distance, path and model error effects. An initial method developed is a two-dimensional path-distributed method using residuals. The goals for any RSTT uncertainty method are for it to be both readily useful for the standard RSTT user as well as improve travel time uncertainty estimates for location. We have successfully tested using the new error model for Pn phases and will demonstrate the method and validation of the error model for Sn, Pg, and Lg phases.

Improving the cost effectiveness of financial incentives in managing travel demand management (TDM).

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-10-01

Providing financial incentives to commuters to use alternative modes is a common element of managing transportation demand. Although these incentives have become common during the past two decades as elements of transportation demand management (TDM)...

Modelling Pedestrian Travel Time and the Design of Facilities: A Queuing Approach

PubMed Central

Rahman, Khalidur; Abdul Ghani, Noraida; Abdulbasah Kamil, Anton; Mustafa, Adli; Kabir Chowdhury, Md. Ahmed

2013-01-01

Pedestrian movements are the consequence of several complex and stochastic facts. The modelling of pedestrian movements and the ability to predict the travel time are useful for evaluating the performance of a pedestrian facility. However, only a few studies can be found that incorporate the design of the facility, local pedestrian body dimensions, the delay experienced by the pedestrians, and level of service to the pedestrian movements. In this paper, a queuing based analytical model is developed as a function of relevant determinants and functional factors to predict the travel time on pedestrian facilities. The model can be used to assess the overall serving rate or performance of a facility layout and correlate it to the level of service that is possible to provide the pedestrians. It has also the ability to provide a clear suggestion on the designing and sizing of pedestrian facilities. The model is empirically validated and is found to be a robust tool to understand how well a particular walking facility makes possible comfort and convenient pedestrian movements. The sensitivity analysis is also performed to see the impact of some crucial parameters of the developed model on the performance of pedestrian facilities. PMID:23691055

511, America's traveler information number. Deployment assistance report #1, Business models and cost considerations

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2002-01-01

Business models and cost recovery are the critical factors for determining the sustainability of the traveler information service, and 511. In March 2001 the Policy Committee directed the 511 Working Group to investigate plausible business models and...

Traveling Magnetic Field Applications for Vertical Bridgman Growth: Modeling and Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mazuruk, Konstantin

2004-01-01

Traveling magnetic fields offer a direct control of the metallic melt meridional flow in long cylinders. It induces the Lorentz body force that can counteract with the buoyancy force induced by radial temperature non-uniformity. It can significantly offset a natural convection in the system, or it can even set up the flow in opposite direction, thus affecting the interface shape, the growth rate and macrosegregation. Results of our numerical modeling of the Vertical Bridgman crystal growth of InSb will be discussed. The experimental part of this investigation will address the effect of the applied traveling magnetic fields on the interface shape of InSb crystals. Specifics of the growth apparatus design for this research will be provided in details.

Meeting Air Transportation Demand in 2025 by Using Larger Aircraft and Alternative Routing to Complement NextGen Operational Improvements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Jeremy C.; Guerreiro, Nelson M.; Viken, Jeffrey K.; Dollyhigh, Samuel M.; Fenbert, James W.

2010-01-01

A study was performed that investigates the use of larger aircraft and alternative routing to complement the capacity benefits expected from the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) in 2025. National Airspace System (NAS) delays for the 2025 demand projected by the Transportation Systems Analysis Models (TSAM) were assessed using NASA s Airspace Concept Evaluation System (ACES). The shift in demand from commercial airline to automobile and from one airline route to another was investigated by adding the route delays determined from the ACES simulation to the travel times used in the TSAM and re-generating new flight scenarios. The ACES simulation results from this study determined that NextGen Operational Improvements alone do not provide sufficient airport capacity to meet the projected demand for passenger air travel in 2025 without significant system delays. Using larger aircraft with more seats on high-demand routes and introducing new direct routes, where demand warrants, significantly reduces delays, complementing NextGen improvements. Another significant finding of this study is that the adaptive behavior of passengers to avoid congested airline-routes is an important factor when projecting demand for transportation systems. Passengers will choose an alternative mode of transportation or alternative airline routes to avoid congested routes, thereby reducing delays to acceptable levels for the 2025 scenario; the penalty being that alternative routes and the option to drive increases overall trip time by 0.4% and may be less convenient than the first-choice route.

Travel characteristics and health practices among travellers at the travellers' health and vaccination clinic in Singapore.

PubMed

Lee, Vernon J; Wilder-Smith, Annelies

2006-10-01

Singapore has a fast-growing travel industry, but few studies have been done on travel characteristics and travel health practices. This study describes the profile and healthseeking behaviour of travellers attending a travel health clinic in Singapore. A cross-sectional survey was conducted on travellers attending the Traveller's Health and Vaccination Centre (THVC) between September and November 2002 using a standardised questionnaire. Information obtained included individual demographic and medical information, travel patterns, vaccination status and travel health practices. Four hundred and ninetyfive (74%) eligible travellers seen at THVC responded to the questionnaire. Their mean age was 36 years; 77% were professionals, managers, executives, and businessmen, students, and white collar workers. Asia was the main travel destination, and most travelled for leisure and resided in hotels or hostels. The median duration of travel was 16 days. Although >90% had previously travelled overseas, only 20% had previously sought pre-travel advice. Malays were significantly underrepresented (P < 0.01); and Caucasians and Eurasians were significantly more likely (P < 0.01) to have previously sought pre-travel advice compared with Chinese, Indians and Malays. Factors associated with seeking pre-travel advice included travel outside of Asia, especially Africa and South America. Singaporean travellers travel more often to cities rather than rural areas, compared with non-Asian travellers. Asia is the preferred destination, and travel outside of Asia is perceived as more risky and is associated with seeking pre-travel advice and vaccinations. Travel patterns and behaviours need to be taken into account when developing evidence-based travel medicine in Asia.

Developing high-resolution urban scale heavy-duty truck emission inventory using the data-driven truck activity model output

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perugu, Harikishan; Wei, Heng; Yao, Zhuo

2017-04-01

Air quality modelers often rely on regional travel demand models to estimate the vehicle activity data for emission models, however, most of the current travel demand models can only output reliable person travel activity rather than goods/service specific travel activity. This paper presents the successful application of data-driven, Spatial Regression and output optimization Truck model (SPARE-Truck) to develop truck-related activity inputs for the mobile emission model, and eventually to produce truck specific gridded emissions. To validate the proposed methodology, the Cincinnati metropolitan area in United States was selected as a case study site. From the results, it is found that the truck miles traveled predicted using traditional methods tend to underestimate - overall 32% less than proposed model- truck miles traveled. The coefficient of determination values for different truck types range between 0.82 and 0.97, except the motor homes which showed least model fit with 0.51. Consequently, the emission inventories calculated from the traditional methods were also underestimated i.e. -37% for NOx, -35% for SO2, -43% for VOC, -43% for BC, -47% for OC and - 49% for PM2.5. Further, the proposed method also predicted within ∼7% of the national emission inventory for all pollutants. The bottom-up gridding methodology used in this paper could allocate the emissions to grid cell where more truck activity is expected, and it is verified against regional land-use data. Most importantly, using proposed method it is easy to segregate gridded emission inventory by truck type, which is of particular interest for decision makers, since currently there is no reliable method to test different truck-category specific travel-demand management strategies for air pollution control.

A multivariate time series approach to modeling and forecasting demand in the emergency department.

PubMed

Jones, Spencer S; Evans, R Scott; Allen, Todd L; Thomas, Alun; Haug, Peter J; Welch, Shari J; Snow, Gregory L

2009-02-01

The goals of this investigation were to study the temporal relationships between the demands for key resources in the emergency department (ED) and the inpatient hospital, and to develop multivariate forecasting models. Hourly data were collected from three diverse hospitals for the year 2006. Descriptive analysis and model fitting were carried out using graphical and multivariate time series methods. Multivariate models were compared to a univariate benchmark model in terms of their ability to provide out-of-sample forecasts of ED census and the demands for diagnostic resources. Descriptive analyses revealed little temporal interaction between the demand for inpatient resources and the demand for ED resources at the facilities considered. Multivariate models provided more accurate forecasts of ED census and of the demands for diagnostic resources. Our results suggest that multivariate time series models can be used to reliably forecast ED patient census; however, forecasts of the demands for diagnostic resources were not sufficiently reliable to be useful in the clinical setting.

Pre-travel advice seeking from GPs by travellers with chronic illness seen at a travel clinic.

PubMed

Gagneux-Brunon, Amandine; Andrillat, Carole; Fouilloux, Pascale; Daoud, Fatiha; Defontaine, Christiane; Charles, Rodolphe; Lucht, Frédéric; Botelho-Nevers, Elisabeth

2016-03-01

Travellers are ageing and frequently report chronic illness. Pre-travel health advice is crucial, particularly in this subgroup, and general practitioners (GPs) are first in line for treatment adjustment before departure. Our aim is to evaluate pre-travel health advice seeking from GPs by travellers with chronic illness seen at a travel clinic. A cross-sectional observational survey using a questionnaire was conducted between August 2013 and July 2014 in travellers attending the travel medicine clinic of a tertiary university hospital in France. During the study, 2019 travellers were included. Mean age was 39.4 years (±18.8). Three hundred and ninety-one (19.4%) travellers reported a history of a chronic illness. Arterial hypertension and diabetes mellitus were the most frequently reported illnesses, affecting, respectively, 168 (8.3%) travellers and 102 (5.1%). Hajj pilgrims were more likely to report a history of chronic illness than other travellers. Only 810 (40.1%) travellers sought pre-travel advice from their GP. Six hundred and fifty-two (40.1%) healthy travellers and 158 (40.5%) travellers reporting chronic illness sought pre-travel advice from their GP (P = 0.96). Travellers with a history of chronic illness do not seek pre-travel health advice from their GP more frequently than healthy travellers. Travel health specialists are generally not the best practitioners to manage the care of underlying medical conditions presenting risks during travel. However, GPs offer continuity and disease management expertise to improve the specificity of pre-travel planning. Thus, ongoing collaboration between the traveller, GP and travel health specialist is likely to yield the best outcomes. © International Society of Travel Medicine, 2016. All rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

A System Dynamics Modeling of Water Supply and Demand in Las Vegas Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parajuli, R.; Kalra, A.; Mastino, L.; Velotta, M.; Ahmad, S.

2017-12-01

The rise in population and change in climate have posed the uncertainties in the balance between supply and demand of water. The current study deals with the water management issues in Las Vegas Valley (LVV) using Stella, a system dynamics modeling software, to model the feedback based relationship between supply and demand parameters. Population parameters were obtained from Center for Business and Economic Research while historical water demand and conservation practices were modeled as per the information provided by local authorities. The water surface elevation of Lake Mead, which is the prime source of water supply to the region, was modeled as the supply side whereas the water demand in LVV was modeled as the demand side. The study was done from the period of 1989 to 2049 with 1989 to 2012 as the historical one and the period from 2013 to 2049 as the future period. This study utilizes Coupled Model Intercomparison Project data sets (2013-2049) (CMIP3&5) to model different future climatic scenarios. The model simulates the past dynamics of supply and demand, and then forecasts the future water budget for the forecasted future population and future climatic conditions. The results can be utilized by the water authorities in understanding the future water status and hence plan suitable conservation policies to allocate future water budget and achieve sustainable water management.

Population-Level Exposure to Particulate Air Pollution during Active Travel: Planning for Low-Exposure, Health-Promoting Cities

PubMed Central

Hankey, Steve; Lindsey, Greg; Marshall, Julian D.

2016-01-01

Background: Providing infrastructure and land uses to encourage active travel (i.e., bicycling and walking) are promising strategies for designing health-promoting cities. Population-level exposure to air pollution during active travel is understudied. Objectives: Our goals were a) to investigate population-level patterns in exposure during active travel, based on spatial estimates of bicycle traffic, pedestrian traffic, and particulate concentrations; and b) to assess how those exposure patterns are associated with the built environment. Methods: We employed facility–demand models (active travel) and land use regression models (particulate concentrations) to estimate block-level (n = 13,604) exposure during rush-hour (1600–1800 hours) in Minneapolis, Minnesota. We used the model-derived estimates to identify land use patterns and characteristics of the street network that are health promoting. We also assessed how exposure is correlated with indicators of health disparities (e.g., household income, proportion of nonwhite residents). Our work uses population-level rates of active travel (i.e., traffic flows) rather than the probability of walking or biking (i.e., “walkability” or “bikeability”) to assess exposure. Results: Active travel often occurs on high-traffic streets or near activity centers where particulate concentrations are highest (i.e., 20–42% of active travel occurs on blocks with high population-level exposure). Only 2–3% of blocks (3–8% of total active travel) are “sweet spots” (i.e., high active travel, low particulate concentrations); sweet spots are located a) near but slightly removed from the city-center or b) on off-street trails. We identified 1,721 blocks (~ 20% of local roads) where shifting active travel from high-traffic roads to adjacent low-traffic roads would reduce exposure by ~ 15%. Active travel is correlated with population density, land use mix, open space, and retail area; particulate concentrations were

Immunocompromised Travelers: Demographic Characteristics, Travel Destinations, and Pretravel Health Care from the U.S. Global TravEpiNet Consortium

PubMed Central

Schwartz, Brian S.; Rosen, Jessica; Han, Pauline V.; Hynes, Noreen A.; Hagmann, Stefan H.; Rao, Sowmya R.; Jentes, Emily S.; Ryan, Edward T.; LaRocque, Regina C.

2015-01-01

An increasing number of immunocompromised individuals are pursuing international travel, and a better understanding of their international travel patterns and pretravel health care is needed. We evaluated the clinical features, itineraries, and pretravel health care of 486 immunocompromised international travelers seen at Global TravEpiNet sites from January 2009 to June 2012. We used bivariate analyses and logistic regressions using random intercept models to compare demographic and travel characteristics, vaccines administered, and medications prescribed for immunocompromised travelers versus 30,702 immunocompetent travelers. Immunocompromised travelers pursued itineraries that were largely similar to those of immunocompetent travelers, with nearly one-third of such travelers visiting countries with low human development indices. Biological agents, including tumor necrosis factor blockers, were commonly used immunosuppressive medications among immunocompromised travelers. A strong collaboration between travel-medicine specialists, primary care doctors, and specialist physicians is needed to prepare immunocompromised people for international travel. Incorporating routine questioning and planning regarding travel into the primary care visits of immunocompromised people may be useful. PMID:26304922

Transportation Sector Model of the National Energy Modeling System. Volume 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1998-01-01

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Transportation Model (TRAN). The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated by the model. The NEMS Transportation Model comprises a series of semi-independent models which address different aspects of the transportation sector. The primary purpose of this model is to provide mid-term forecasts of transportation energy demand by fuel type including, but not limited to, motor gasoline, distillate, jet fuel, and alternative fuels (such as CNG) not commonly associated with transportation. Themore » current NEMS forecast horizon extends to the year 2010 and uses 1990 as the base year. Forecasts are generated through the separate consideration of energy consumption within the various modes of transport, including: private and fleet light-duty vehicles; aircraft; marine, rail, and truck freight; and various modes with minor overall impacts, such as mass transit and recreational boating. This approach is useful in assessing the impacts of policy initiatives, legislative mandates which affect individual modes of travel, and technological developments. The model also provides forecasts of selected intermediate values which are generated in order to determine energy consumption. These elements include estimates of passenger travel demand by automobile, air, or mass transit; estimates of the efficiency with which that demand is met; projections of vehicle stocks and the penetration of new technologies; and estimates of the demand for freight transport which are linked to forecasts of industrial output. Following the estimation of energy demand, TRAN produces forecasts of vehicular emissions of the following pollutants by source: oxides of sulfur, oxides of nitrogen, total carbon, carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, and volatile organic

[Application of job demands-resources model in research on relationships between job satisfaction, job resources, individual resources and job demands].

PubMed

Potocka, Adrianna; Waszkowska, Małgorzata

2013-01-01

The aim of this study was to explore the relationships between job demands, job resourses, personal resourses and job satisfaction and to assess the usefulness of the Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) model in the explanation of these phenomena. The research was based on a sample of 500 social workers. The "Psychosocial Factors" and "Job satisfaction" questionnaires were used to test the hypothesis. The results showed that job satisfaction increased with increasing job accessibility and personal resources (r = 0.44; r = 0.31; p < 0.05). The analysis of variance (ANOVA) indicated that job resources and job demands [F(1.474) = 4.004; F(1.474) = 4.166; p < 0.05] were statistically significant sources of variation in job satisfaction. Moreover, interactions between job demands and job resources [F(3,474) = 2.748; p <0.05], as well as between job demands and personal resources [F(3.474) = 3.021; p <0.05] had a significant impact on job satisfaction. The post hoc tests showed that 1) in low job demands, but high job resources employees declared higher job satisfaction, than those who perceived them as medium (p = 0.0001) or low (p = 0.0157); 2) when the level of job demands was perceived as medium, employees with high personal resources declared significantly higher job satisfaction than those with low personal resources (p = 0.0001). The JD-R model can be used to investigate job satisfaction. Taking into account fundamental factors of this model, in organizational management there are possibilities of shaping job satisfaction among employees.

Network Structure and Travel Time Perception

PubMed Central

Parthasarathi, Pavithra; Levinson, David; Hochmair, Hartwig

2013-01-01

The purpose of this research is to test the systematic variation in the perception of travel time among travelers and relate the variation to the underlying street network structure. Travel survey data from the Twin Cities metropolitan area (which includes the cities of Minneapolis and St. Paul) is used for the analysis. Travelers are classified into two groups based on the ratio of perceived and estimated commute travel time. The measures of network structure are estimated using the street network along the identified commute route. T-test comparisons are conducted to identify statistically significant differences in estimated network measures between the two traveler groups. The combined effect of these estimated network measures on travel time is then analyzed using regression models. The results from the t-test and regression analyses confirm the influence of the underlying network structure on the perception of travel time. PMID:24204932

Network structure and travel time perception.

PubMed

Parthasarathi, Pavithra; Levinson, David; Hochmair, Hartwig

2013-01-01

The purpose of this research is to test the systematic variation in the perception of travel time among travelers and relate the variation to the underlying street network structure. Travel survey data from the Twin Cities metropolitan area (which includes the cities of Minneapolis and St. Paul) is used for the analysis. Travelers are classified into two groups based on the ratio of perceived and estimated commute travel time. The measures of network structure are estimated using the street network along the identified commute route. T-test comparisons are conducted to identify statistically significant differences in estimated network measures between the two traveler groups. The combined effect of these estimated network measures on travel time is then analyzed using regression models. The results from the t-test and regression analyses confirm the influence of the underlying network structure on the perception of travel time.

The Model of Children's Active Travel (M-CAT): a conceptual framework for examining factors influencing children's active travel.

PubMed

Pont, Karina; Ziviani, Jenny; Wadley, David; Abbott, Rebecca

2011-06-01

The current decline in children's participation in physical activity has attracted the attention of those concerned with children's health and wellbeing. A sustainable approach to ensuring children engage in adequate amounts of physical activity is to support their involvement in incidental activity such as active travel (AT), which includes walking or riding a bicycle to or from local destinations, such as school or a park. Understanding how we can embed physical activity into children's everyday occupational roles is a way in which occupational therapists can contribute to this important health promotion agenda. To present a simple, coherent and comprehensive framework as a means of examining factors influencing children's AT. Based on current literature, this conceptual framework incorporates the observable environment, parents' perceptions and decisions regarding their children's AT, as well as children's own perceptions and decisions regarding AT within their family contexts across time. The Model of Children's Active Travel (M-CAT) highlights the complex and dynamic nature of factors impacting the decision-making process of parents and children in relation to children's AT. The M-CAT offers a way forward for researchers to examine variables influencing active travel in a systematic manner. Future testing of the M-CAT will consolidate understanding of the factors underlying the decision-making process which occurs within families in the context of their communities. © 2010 The Authors. Australian Occupational Therapy Journal © 2010 Australian Association of Occupational Therapists.

Travel Schooling: Helping Children Learn through Travel.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Byrnes, Deborah A.

2001-01-01

Provides information for teachers to help parents create rewarding and educational travel experiences for children. Examines the benefits of travel schooling, fundamental elements of a meaningful travel schooling experience, fostering cross cultural sensitivity through travel, and returning to the traditional classroom. (SD)

The traveling salesman problem: a hierarchical model.

PubMed

Graham, S M; Joshi, A; Pizlo, Z

2000-10-01

Our review of prior literature on spatial information processing in perception, attention, and memory indicates that these cognitive functions involve similar mechanisms based on a hierarchical architecture. The present study extends the application of hierarchical models to the area of problem solving. First, we report results of an experiment in which human subjects were tested on a Euclidean traveling salesman problem (TSP) with 6 to 30 cities. The subject's solutions were either optimal or near-optimal in length and were produced in a time that was, on average, a linear function of the number of cities. Next, the performance of the subjects is compared with that of five representative artificial intelligence and operations research algorithms, that produce approximate solutions for Euclidean problems. None of these algorithms was found to be an adequate psychological model. Finally, we present a new algorithm for solving the TSP, which is based on a hierarchical pyramid architecture. The performance of this new algorithm is quite similar to the performance of the subjects.

Aggregate modeling of fast-acting demand response and control under real-time pricing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chassin, David P.; Rondeau, Daniel

This paper develops and assesses the performance of a short-term demand response (DR) model for utility load control with applications to resource planning and control design. Long term response models tend to underestimate short-term demand response when induced by prices. This has two important consequences. First, planning studies tend to undervalue DR and often overlook its benefits in utility demand management program development. Second, when DR is not overlooked, the open-loop DR control gain estimate may be too low. This can result in overuse of load resources, control instability and excessive price volatility. Our objective is therefore to develop amore » more accurate and better performing short-term demand response model. We construct the model from first principles about the nature of thermostatic load control and show that the resulting formulation corresponds exactly to the Random Utility Model employed in economics to study consumer choice. The model is tested against empirical data collected from field demonstration projects and is shown to perform better than alternative models commonly used to forecast demand in normal operating conditions. Finally, the results suggest that (1) existing utility tariffs appear to be inadequate to incentivize demand response, particularly in the presence of high renewables, and (2) existing load control systems run the risk of becoming unstable if utilities close the loop on real-time prices.« less

Aggregate modeling of fast-acting demand response and control under real-time pricing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chassin, David P.; Rondeau, Daniel

This paper develops and assesses the performance of a short-term demand response (DR) model for utility load control with applications to resource planning and control design. Long term response models tend to underestimate short-term demand response when induced by prices. This has two important consequences. First, planning studies tend to undervalue DR and often overlook its benefits in utility demand management program development. Second, when DR is not overlooked, the open-loop DR control gain estimate may be too low. This can result in overuse of load resources, control instability and excessive price volatility. Our objective is therefore to develop amore » more accurate and better performing short-term demand response model. We construct the model from first principles about the nature of thermostatic load control and show that the resulting formulation corresponds exactly to the Random Utility Model employed in economics to study consumer choice. The model is tested against empirical data collected from field demonstration projects and is shown to perform better than alternative models commonly used to forecast demand in normal operating conditions. The results suggest that (1) existing utility tariffs appear to be inadequate to incentivize demand response, particularly in the presence of high renewables, and (2) existing load control systems run the risk of becoming unstable if utilities close the loop on real-time prices.« less

Aggregate modeling of fast-acting demand response and control under real-time pricing

DOE PAGES

Chassin, David P.; Rondeau, Daniel

2016-08-24

This paper develops and assesses the performance of a short-term demand response (DR) model for utility load control with applications to resource planning and control design. Long term response models tend to underestimate short-term demand response when induced by prices. This has two important consequences. First, planning studies tend to undervalue DR and often overlook its benefits in utility demand management program development. Second, when DR is not overlooked, the open-loop DR control gain estimate may be too low. This can result in overuse of load resources, control instability and excessive price volatility. Our objective is therefore to develop amore » more accurate and better performing short-term demand response model. We construct the model from first principles about the nature of thermostatic load control and show that the resulting formulation corresponds exactly to the Random Utility Model employed in economics to study consumer choice. The model is tested against empirical data collected from field demonstration projects and is shown to perform better than alternative models commonly used to forecast demand in normal operating conditions. Finally, the results suggest that (1) existing utility tariffs appear to be inadequate to incentivize demand response, particularly in the presence of high renewables, and (2) existing load control systems run the risk of becoming unstable if utilities close the loop on real-time prices.« less

Pre-Travel Medical Preparation of Business and Occupational Travelers

PubMed Central

Khan, Nomana M.; Jentes, Emily S.; Brown, Clive; Han, Pauline; Rao, Sowmya R.; Kozarsky, Phyllis; Hagmann, Stefan H.F.; LaRocque, Regina C.; Ryan, Edward T.

2016-01-01

Objectives: The aim of the study was to understand more about pre-travel preparations and itineraries of business and occupational travelers. Methods: De-identified data from 18 Global TravEpiNet clinics from January 2009 to December 2012 were analyzed. Results: Of 23,534 travelers, 61% were non-occupational and 39% occupational. Business travelers were more likely to be men, had short times to departure and shorter trip durations, and commonly refused influenza, meningococcal, and hepatitis B vaccines. Most business travelers indicated that employers suggested the pre-travel health consultation, whereas non-occupational travelers sought consultations because of travel health concerns. Conclusions: Sub-groups of occupational travelers have characteristic profiles, with business travelers being particularly distinct. Employers play a role in encouraging business travelers to seek pre-travel consultations. Such consultations, even if scheduled immediately before travel, can identify vaccination gaps and increase coverage. PMID:26479857

Performances estimation of a rotary traveling wave ultrasonic motor based on two-dimension analytical model.

PubMed

Ming, Y; Peiwen, Q

2001-03-01

The understanding of ultrasonic motor performances as a function of input parameters, such as the voltage amplitude, driving frequency, the preload on the rotor, is a key to many applications and control of ultrasonic motor. This paper presents performances estimation of the piezoelectric rotary traveling wave ultrasonic motor as a function of input voltage amplitude and driving frequency and preload. The Love equation is used to derive the traveling wave amplitude on the stator surface. With the contact model of the distributed spring-rigid body between the stator and rotor, a two-dimension analytical model of the rotary traveling wave ultrasonic motor is constructed. Then the performances of stead rotation speed and stall torque are deduced. With MATLAB computational language and iteration algorithm, we estimate the performances of rotation speed and stall torque versus input parameters respectively. The same experiments are completed with the optoelectronic tachometer and stand weight. Both estimation and experiment results reveal the pattern of performance variation as a function of its input parameters.

Balancing the Scholarship Demands of Forensics and Graduate Study.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kuper, Glenn

It is difficult to strike a balance between the demands placed on graduate students and those placed on graduate forensics assistants. The combination of duties as Graduate Forensics Assistants (GFAs)--baby sitters, confidants, teachers, travel agents, administrators, clerical workers, psychologists, proofreaders, authority figures, and finally,…

2001 New York State NHTS: Travel Patterns of Special Populations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hu, Patricia S; Reuscher, Tim

Policymakers rely on transportation statistics, including data on personal travel behavior, to formulate strategic transportation policies, and to improve the safety and efficiency of the U.S. transportation system. Data on personal travel trends are needed to examine the reliability, efficiency, capacity, and flexibility of the Nation's transportation system to meet current demands and accommodate future demands; to assess the feasibility and efficiency of alternative congestion-alleviating technologies (e.g., high-speed rail, magnetically levitated trains, intelligent vehicle and highway systems); to evaluate the merits of alternative transportation investment programs; and to assess the energy-use and air-quality impacts of various policies. To address thesemore » data needs, the U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) initiated an effort in 1969 to collect detailed data on personal travel. The 1969 survey was the first Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey (NPTS). The survey was conducted again in 1977, 1983, 1990, 1995, and 2001. Data on daily travel were collected in 1969, 1977, 1983, 1990 and 1995. Longer-distance travel was collected in 1977 and 1995. The 2001 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) collected both daily and longer-distance trips in one survey. The 2001 survey was sponsored by three USDOT agencies: Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS), and National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). The primary objective of the survey was to collect trip-based data on the nature and characteristics of personal travel so that the relationships between the characteristics of personal travel and the demographics of the traveler can be established. Commercial and institutional travel was not part of the survey. New York State participated in the 2001 NHTS by procuring additional 12,000 sample households. These additional sample households allowed New York State to address transportation planning

A genetic-algorithm-based remnant grey prediction model for energy demand forecasting.

PubMed

Hu, Yi-Chung

2017-01-01

Energy demand is an important economic index, and demand forecasting has played a significant role in drawing up energy development plans for cities or countries. As the use of large datasets and statistical assumptions is often impractical to forecast energy demand, the GM(1,1) model is commonly used because of its simplicity and ability to characterize an unknown system by using a limited number of data points to construct a time series model. This paper proposes a genetic-algorithm-based remnant GM(1,1) (GARGM(1,1)) with sign estimation to further improve the forecasting accuracy of the original GM(1,1) model. The distinctive feature of GARGM(1,1) is that it simultaneously optimizes the parameter specifications of the original and its residual models by using the GA. The results of experiments pertaining to a real case of energy demand in China showed that the proposed GARGM(1,1) outperforms other remnant GM(1,1) variants.

A genetic-algorithm-based remnant grey prediction model for energy demand forecasting

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Energy demand is an important economic index, and demand forecasting has played a significant role in drawing up energy development plans for cities or countries. As the use of large datasets and statistical assumptions is often impractical to forecast energy demand, the GM(1,1) model is commonly used because of its simplicity and ability to characterize an unknown system by using a limited number of data points to construct a time series model. This paper proposes a genetic-algorithm-based remnant GM(1,1) (GARGM(1,1)) with sign estimation to further improve the forecasting accuracy of the original GM(1,1) model. The distinctive feature of GARGM(1,1) is that it simultaneously optimizes the parameter specifications of the original and its residual models by using the GA. The results of experiments pertaining to a real case of energy demand in China showed that the proposed GARGM(1,1) outperforms other remnant GM(1,1) variants. PMID:28981548

Control of spiral waves and turbulent states in a cardiac model by travelling-wave perturbations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Peng-Ye; Xie, Ping; Yin, Hua-Wei

2003-06-01

We propose a travelling-wave perturbation method to control the spatiotemporal dynamics in a cardiac model. It is numerically demonstrated that the method can successfully suppress the wave instability (alternans in action potential duration) in the one-dimensional case and convert spiral waves and turbulent states to the normal travelling wave states in the two-dimensional case. An experimental scheme is suggested which may provide a new design for a cardiac defibrillator.

Immunocompromised Travelers: Demographic Characteristics, Travel Destinations, and Pretravel Health Care from the U.S. Global TravEpiNet Consortium.

PubMed

Schwartz, Brian S; Rosen, Jessica; Han, Pauline V; Hynes, Noreen A; Hagmann, Stefan H; Rao, Sowmya R; Jentes, Emily S; Ryan, Edward T; LaRocque, Regina C

2015-11-01

An increasing number of immunocompromised individuals are pursuing international travel, and a better understanding of their international travel patterns and pretravel health care is needed. We evaluated the clinical features, itineraries, and pretravel health care of 486 immunocompromised international travelers seen at Global TravEpiNet sites from January 2009 to June 2012. We used bivariate analyses and logistic regressions using random intercept models to compare demographic and travel characteristics, vaccines administered, and medications prescribed for immunocompromised travelers versus 30,702 immunocompetent travelers. Immunocompromised travelers pursued itineraries that were largely similar to those of immunocompetent travelers, with nearly one-third of such travelers visiting countries with low human development indices. Biological agents, including tumor necrosis factor blockers, were commonly used immunosuppressive medications among immunocompromised travelers. A strong collaboration between travel-medicine specialists, primary care doctors, and specialist physicians is needed to prepare immunocompromised people for international travel. Incorporating routine questioning and planning regarding travel into the primary care visits of immunocompromised people may be useful. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

Travel health knowledge, attitudes and practices among Australasian travelers.

PubMed

Wilder-Smith, Annelies; Khairullah, Nor S; Song, Jae-Hoon; Chen, Ching-Yu; Torresi, Joseph

2004-01-01

Although the Asia Pacific region is the focus of the fastest-growing tourist and travel industry, few data are available on the knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) of travelers from this region with regard to travel-related infectious diseases. We conducted a cross-sectional survey among travelers at the departure lounges of five airports in Australasia (Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, Taipeh, Melbourne, Seoul) whose travel destinations were Asia, Africa or South America. Two standardized questionnaires directed towards KAP in travel health, travel immunizations and malaria were administered. Of 2,101 respondents (82% Asian, 17% Western), 31% had sought pretravel health advice and only 4% sought travel health advice from the travel medicine specialist. The risk of vaccine-preventable infectious diseases and malaria at the destination country was perceived to be low. Overall, fewer than 5% of travelers had been vaccinated in preparation for their trip. The most frequent travel vaccinations were for hepatitis A and B. Only 40% of travelers to malaria-endemic areas carried malaria prophylaxis. Compared to Western travelers, those of Asian nationality were significantly less likely to obtain pretravel advice and malaria prophylaxis and to receive travel vaccinations. There is an urgent need for increased awareness about travel-related infectious diseases among Asian travelers, and greater uptake of pretravel health advice, vaccinations and malaria prophylactic measures.

Travel medicine

PubMed Central

Aw, Brian; Boraston, Suni; Botten, David; Cherniwchan, Darin; Fazal, Hyder; Kelton, Timothy; Libman, Michael; Saldanha, Colin; Scappatura, Philip; Stowe, Brian

2014-01-01

Abstract Objective To define the practice of travel medicine, provide the basics of a comprehensive pretravel consultation for international travelers, and assist in identifying patients who might require referral to travel medicine professionals. Sources of information Guidelines and recommendations on travel medicine and travel-related illnesses by national and international travel health authorities were reviewed. MEDLINE and EMBASE searches for related literature were also performed. Main message Travel medicine is a highly dynamic specialty that focuses on pretravel preventive care. A comprehensive risk assessment for each individual traveler is essential in order to accurately evaluate traveler-, itinerary-, and destination-specific risks, and to advise on the most appropriate risk management interventions to promote health and prevent adverse health outcomes during travel. Vaccinations might also be required and should be personalized according to the individual traveler’s immunization history, travel itinerary, and the amount of time available before departure. Conclusion A traveler’s health and safety depends on a practitioner’s level of expertise in providing pretravel counseling and vaccinations, if required. Those who advise travelers are encouraged to be aware of the extent of this responsibility and to refer all high-risk travelers to travel medicine professionals whenever possible. PMID:25500599

A Transportation Modeling Primer

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-06-01

This primer is intended to explain the urban transportation modeling process works, the assumptions made and the steps used to forecast travel demand for urban transportation planning. This is done in order to help to understand the process and its i...

International business travel: impact on families and travellers

PubMed Central

Espino, C; Sundstrom, S; Frick, H; Jacobs, M; Peters, M

2002-01-01

Objectives: Spouses and staff of the World Bank Group (WBG) were questioned about the impact of international business travel on families and travellers. Dependent variables were self reported stress, concern about the health of the traveller, and negative impact on the family. We hypothesised that several travel factors (independent variables) would be associated with these impacts. These travel factors had to do with the frequency, duration, and predictability of travel and its interference with family activities. Methods: Survey forms were developed and distributed to all spouses of travelling staff as well as a small sample of operational staff. Kendall's tau b correlation coefficients of response frequencies were computed with the data from scaled items. Written responses to open ended questions were categorised. Results: Response rates for spouses and staff were 24% and 36%, respectively. Half the spouse sample (n=533) and almost 75% of the staff sample (n=102) reported high or very high stress due to business travel. Self reported spouse stress was associated with six out of eight travel factors. Female spouses, those with children, and younger spouses reported greater stress. Self reported staff stress was significantly associated with four out of nine travel factors. Further insight into how business travel affects families and staff (including children's behavioural changes) and how families cope was gained through responses to written questions. Conclusions: The findings support the notion that lengthy and frequent travel and frequent changes in travel dates which affect family plans, all characteristic of WBG missions, negatively affects many spouses and children (particularly young children) and that the strain on families contributes significantly to the stress staff feel about their travel. Policies or management practices that take into consideration family activities and give staff greater leeway in controlling and refusing travel may help relieve

International business travel: impact on families and travellers.

PubMed

Espino, C M; Sundstrom, S M; Frick, H L; Jacobs, M; Peters, M

2002-05-01

Spouses and staff of the World Bank Group (WBG) were questioned about the impact of international business travel on families and travellers. Dependent variables were self reported stress, concern about the health of the traveller, and negative impact on the family. We hypothesised that several travel factors (independent variables) would be associated with these impacts. These travel factors had to do with the frequency, duration, and predictability of travel and its interference with family activities. Survey forms were developed and distributed to all spouses of travelling staff as well as a small sample of operational staff. Kendall's tau b correlation coefficients of response frequencies were computed with the data from scaled items. Written responses to open ended questions were categorised. Response rates for spouses and staff were 24% and 36%, respectively. Half the spouse sample (n=533) and almost 75% of the staff sample (n=102) reported high or very high stress due to business travel. Self reported spouse stress was associated with six out of eight travel factors. Female spouses, those with children, and younger spouses reported greater stress. Self reported staff stress was significantly associated with four out of nine travel factors. Further insight into how business travel affects families and staff (including children's behavioural changes) and how families cope was gained through responses to written questions. The findings support the notion that lengthy and frequent travel and frequent changes in travel dates which affect family plans, all characteristic of WBG missions, negatively affects many spouses and children (particularly young children) and that the strain on families contributes significantly to the stress staff feel about their travel. Policies or management practices that take into consideration family activities and give staff greater leeway in controlling and refusing travel may help relieve stress.

Long-term evaluation of individualized marketing programs for travel demand management

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-07-01

This research examines the use of individualized marketing as a transportation demand : management (TDM) strategy, using the City of Portlands SmartTrips program. This research : project has two specific aims: (1) to evaluate whether the benefits ...

Estimating the Economic Value of Ice Climbing in Hyalite Canyon: An Application of Travel Cost Count Data Models that Account for Excess Zeros*

PubMed Central

Anderson, D. Mark

2009-01-01

Recently, the sport of ice climbing has seen a drastic increase in popularity. This paper uses the travel cost method to estimate the demand for ice climbing in Hyalite Canyon, Montana, one of the premier ice climbing venues in North America. Access to Hyalite and other ice climbing destinations have been put at risk due to liability issues, public land management agendas, and winter road conditions. To this point, there has been no analysis on the economic benefits of ice climbing. In addition to the novel outdoor recreation application, this study applies econometric methods designed to deal with “excess zeros” in the data. Depending upon model specification, per person per trip values are estimated to be in the range of $76 to $135. PMID:20044202

Refusal of recommended travel-related vaccines among U.S. international travellers in Global TravEpiNet.

PubMed

Lammert, Sara M; Rao, Sowmya R; Jentes, Emily S; Fairley, Jessica K; Erskine, Stefanie; Walker, Allison T; Hagmann, Stefan H; Sotir, Mark J; Ryan, Edward T; LaRocque, Regina C

2016-07-01

International travellers are at risk of travel-related, vaccine-preventable diseases. More data are needed on the proportion of travellers who refuse vaccines during a pre-travel health consultation and their reasons for refusing vaccines. We analyzed data on travellers seen for a pre-travel health consultation from July 2012 through June 2014 in the Global TravEpiNet (GTEN) consortium. Providers were required to indicate one of three reasons for a traveller refusing a recommended vaccine: (1) cost concerns, (2) safety concerns or (3) not concerned with the illness. We calculated refusal rates among travellers eligible for each vaccine based on CDC recommendations current at the time of travel. We used multivariable logistic regression models to examine the effect of individual variables on the likelihood of accepting all recommended vaccines. Of 24 478 travellers, 23 768 (97%) were eligible for at least one vaccine. Travellers were most frequently eligible for typhoid (N = 20 092), hepatitis A (N = 12 990) and influenza vaccines (N = 10 539). Of 23 768 eligible travellers, 6573 (25%) refused one or more recommended vaccine(s). Of those eligible, more than one-third refused the following vaccines: meningococcal: 2232 (44%) of 5029; rabies: 1155 (44%) of 2650; Japanese encephalitis: 761 (41%) of 1846; and influenza: 3527 (33%) of 10 539. The most common reason for declining vaccines was that the traveller was not concerned about the illness. In multivariable analysis, travellers visiting friends and relatives (VFR) in low or medium human development countries were less likely to accept all recommended vaccines, compared with non-VFR travellers (OR = 0.74 (0.59-0.95)). Travellers who sought pre-travel health care refused recommended vaccines at varying rates. A lack of concern about the associated illness was the most commonly cited reason for all refused vaccines. Our data suggest more effective education about disease risk is needed for

Market Assessment For Traveler Services, A Choice Modeling Study Phase Iii, Fast-Trac Deliverable, #16B: Final Choice Modeling Report

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-02-12

FAST-TRAC : THIS REPORT DESCRIBES THE CHOICE MODEL STUDY OF THE FAST-TRAC (FASTER AND SAFER TRAVEL THROUGH TRAFFIC ROUTING AND ADVANCED CONTROLS) OPERATIONAL TEST IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. CHOICE MODELING IS A STATED-PREFERENCE APPROACH IN WHICH RESP...

[Pre-travel advice and patient education of Hungarian travellers].

PubMed

Lengyel, Ingrid; Felkai, Péter

2018-03-01

According to international surveys, over half of the travellers face some kind of health issue when travelling. The overwhelming majority of travel-related illnesses can be prevented with pre-travel medical consultations, but the syllabus and content of the consultation have to match the travel habits and culture of the given society. This publication explores the specificities and travel habits of Hungarian travellers. One hundred participants of a travel exhibition completed a survey about their international travel. As the survey was not representative, the data could only be processed through simple statistical methods. However, since the exhibition was presumably attended by those wishing to travel, the conclusions drawn from the results are worth publishing, since no similar survey in Hungary has been published before. Based on the suitable classification of age groups in travel medicine, 11% of the participants were adolescents / young adults (aged 15-24), 81% adults (25-59) and 8% elderly (60-74). Twenty-eight percent of the participants travel multiple times a year, 40% yearly and 32% of them less frequently; 16% of the adults, 8% of the adolescents and 4% of the elderly age group travel multiple times a year. The travel destinations of Hungarian travellers have remained practically unchanged since a study was conducted 13 years ago: the vast majority (95%) travelled within Europe, 2% to the United States, and 11% of them elsewhere. Since Hungarians do not travel to endemic areas, only 5% consulted their general practitioners (GPs) prior to travelling, and 29% did when they had to be vaccinated. Forty-two percent of those wishing to travel never consult their GPs, even though 29% of them are aware of some chronic illness. Instead, 51% gather their health information from the internet and only 6% from their doctors. By the contradiction between the poor health status of the majority of Hungarian travellers and the negligence of seeking pre-travel advice

Complex groundwater flow systems as traveling agent models

PubMed Central

Padilla, Pablo; Escolero, Oscar; González, Tomas; Morales-Casique, Eric; Osorio-Olvera, Luis

2014-01-01

Analyzing field data from pumping tests, we show that as with many other natural phenomena, groundwater flow exhibits complex dynamics described by 1/f power spectrum. This result is theoretically studied within an agent perspective. Using a traveling agent model, we prove that this statistical behavior emerges when the medium is complex. Some heuristic reasoning is provided to justify both spatial and dynamic complexity, as the result of the superposition of an infinite number of stochastic processes. Even more, we show that this implies that non-Kolmogorovian probability is needed for its study, and provide a set of new partial differential equations for groundwater flow. PMID:25337455

PRT Impact Study - Operational Phase : Volume 1. Travel Analysis.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1979-03-01

Part of a three-volume work, this report describes the analysis performed on travel data collected for the Pre-PRT Impact Study. The data analyzed consist of travel behavior, travel patterns, model utilization and travel costs of various modes of tra...

Integrating the simulation of domestic water demand behaviour to an urban water model using agent based modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koutiva, Ifigeneia; Makropoulos, Christos

2015-04-01

The urban water system's sustainable evolution requires tools that can analyse and simulate the complete cycle including both physical and cultural environments. One of the main challenges, in this regard, is the design and development of tools that are able to simulate the society's water demand behaviour and the way policy measures affect it. The effects of these policy measures are a function of personal opinions that subsequently lead to the formation of people's attitudes. These attitudes will eventually form behaviours. This work presents the design of an ABM tool for addressing the social dimension of the urban water system. The created tool, called Urban Water Agents' Behaviour (UWAB) model, was implemented, using the NetLogo agent programming language. The main aim of the UWAB model is to capture the effects of policies and environmental pressures to water conservation behaviour of urban households. The model consists of agents representing urban households that are linked to each other creating a social network that influences the water conservation behaviour of its members. Household agents are influenced as well by policies and environmental pressures, such as drought. The UWAB model simulates behaviour resulting in the evolution of water conservation within an urban population. The final outcome of the model is the evolution of the distribution of different conservation levels (no, low, high) to the selected urban population. In addition, UWAB is implemented in combination with an existing urban water management simulation tool, the Urban Water Optioneering Tool (UWOT) in order to create a modelling platform aiming to facilitate an adaptive approach of water resources management. For the purposes of this proposed modelling platform, UWOT is used in a twofold manner: (1) to simulate domestic water demand evolution and (2) to simulate the response of the water system to the domestic water demand evolution. The main advantage of the UWAB - UWOT model

Refusal of recommended travel-related vaccines among U.S. international travellers in Global TravEpiNet

PubMed Central

Lammert, Sara M.; Rao, Sowmya R.; Jentes, Emily S.; Fairley, Jessica K.; Erskine, Stefanie; Walker, Allison T.; Hagmann, Stefan H.; Sotir, Mark J.; Ryan, Edward T.

2017-01-01

Background: International travellers are at risk of travel-related, vaccine-preventable diseases. More data are needed on the proportion of travellers who refuse vaccines during a pre-travel health consultation and their reasons for refusing vaccines. Methods: We analyzed data on travellers seen for a pre-travel health consultation from July 2012 through June 2014 in the Global TravEpiNet (GTEN) consortium. Providers were required to indicate one of three reasons for a traveller refusing a recommended vaccine: (1) cost concerns, (2) safety concerns or (3) not concerned with the illness. We calculated refusal rates among travellers eligible for each vaccine based on CDC recommendations current at the time of travel. We used multivariable logistic regression models to examine the effect of individual variables on the likelihood of accepting all recommended vaccines. Results: Of 24 478 travellers, 23 768 (97%) were eligible for at least one vaccine. Travellers were most frequently eligible for typhoid (N = 20 092), hepatitis A (N = 12 990) and influenza vaccines (N = 10 539). Of 23 768 eligible travellers, 6573 (25%) refused one or more recommended vaccine(s). Of those eligible, more than one-third refused the following vaccines: meningococcal: 2232 (44%) of 5029; rabies: 1155 (44%) of 2650; Japanese encephalitis: 761 (41%) of 1846; and influenza: 3527 (33%) of 10 539. The most common reason for declining vaccines was that the traveller was not concerned about the illness. In multivariable analysis, travellers visiting friends and relatives (VFR) in low or medium human development countries were less likely to accept all recommended vaccines, compared with non-VFR travellers (OR = 0.74 (0.59–0.95)). Conclusions: Travellers who sought pre-travel health care refused recommended vaccines at varying rates. A lack of concern about the associated illness was the most commonly cited reason for all refused vaccines. Our data suggest more effective

A dynamic model of the piezoelectric traveling wave rotary ultrasonic motor stator with the finite volume method.

PubMed

Renteria Marquez, I A; Bolborici, V

2017-05-01

This manuscript presents a method to model in detail the piezoelectric traveling wave rotary ultrasonic motor (PTRUSM) stator response under the action of DC and AC voltages. The stator is modeled with a discrete two dimensional system of equations using the finite volume method (FVM). In order to obtain accurate results, a model of the stator bridge is included into the stator model. The model of the stator under the action of DC voltage is presented first, and the results of the model are compared versus a similar model using the commercial finite element software COMSOL Multiphysics. One can observe that there is a difference of less than 5% between the displacements of the stator using the proposed model and the one with COMSOL Multiphysics. After that, the model of the stator under the action of AC voltages is presented. The time domain analysis shows the generation of the traveling wave in the stator surface. One can use this model to accurately calculate the stator surface velocities, elliptical motion of the stator surface and the amplitude and shape of the stator traveling wave. A system of equations discretized with the finite volume method can easily be transformed into electrical circuits, because of that, FVM may be a better choice to develop a model-based control strategy for the PTRUSM. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Calibrating Physical Parameters in House Models Using Aggregate AC Power Demand

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sun, Yannan; Stevens, Andrew J.; Lian, Jianming

For residential houses, the air conditioning (AC) units are one of the major resources that can provide significant flexibility in energy use for the purpose of demand response. To quantify the flexibility, the characteristics of all the houses need to be accurately estimated, so that certain house models can be used to predict the dynamics of the house temperatures in order to adjust the setpoints accordingly to provide demand response while maintaining the same comfort levels. In this paper, we propose an approach using the Reverse Monte Carlo modeling method and aggregate house models to calibrate the distribution parameters ofmore » the house models for a population of residential houses. Given the aggregate AC power demand for the population, the approach can successfully estimate the distribution parameters for the sensitive physical parameters based on our previous uncertainty quantification study, such as the mean of the floor areas of the houses.« less

Disparities in Patterns of Health Care Travel Among Inpatients Diagnosed With Congestive Heart Failure, Florida, 2011.

PubMed

Jia, Peng; Xierali, Imam M

2015-09-17

Congestive heart failure (CHF) is a major public health problem in the United States and is a leading cause of hospitalization in the elderly population. Understanding the health care travel patterns of CHF patients and their underlying cause is important to balance the supply and demand for local hospital resources. This article explores the nonclinical factors that prompt CHF patients to seek distant instead of local hospitalization. Local hospitalization was defined as inpatients staying within hospital service areas, and distant hospitalization was defined as inpatients traveling outside hospital service areas, based on individual hospital discharge data in 2011 generated by a Dartmouth-Swiss hybrid approach. Multiple logistic and linear regression models were used to compare the travel patterns of different groups of inpatients in Florida. Black patients, no-charge patients, patients living in large metropolitan areas, and patients with a low socioeconomic status were more likely to seek local hospitalization than were white patients, those who were privately insured, those who lived in rural areas, and those with a high socioeconomic status, respectively. Findings indicate that different populations diagnosed with CHF had different travel patterns for hospitalization. Changes or disruptions in local hospital supply could differentially affect different groups in a population. Policy makers could target efforts to CHF patients who are less likely to travel to seek treatment.

Disparities in Patterns of Health Care Travel Among Inpatients Diagnosed With Congestive Heart Failure, Florida, 2011

PubMed Central

Xierali, Imam M.

2015-01-01

Introduction Congestive heart failure (CHF) is a major public health problem in the United States and is a leading cause of hospitalization in the elderly population. Understanding the health care travel patterns of CHF patients and their underlying cause is important to balance the supply and demand for local hospital resources. This article explores the nonclinical factors that prompt CHF patients to seek distant instead of local hospitalization. Methods Local hospitalization was defined as inpatients staying within hospital service areas, and distant hospitalization was defined as inpatients traveling outside hospital service areas, based on individual hospital discharge data in 2011 generated by a Dartmouth–Swiss hybrid approach. Multiple logistic and linear regression models were used to compare the travel patterns of different groups of inpatients in Florida. Results Black patients, no-charge patients, patients living in large metropolitan areas, and patients with a low socioeconomic status were more likely to seek local hospitalization than were white patients, those who were privately insured, those who lived in rural areas, and those with a high socioeconomic status, respectively. Conclusion Findings indicate that different populations diagnosed with CHF had different travel patterns for hospitalization. Changes or disruptions in local hospital supply could differentially affect different groups in a population. Policy makers could target efforts to CHF patients who are less likely to travel to seek treatment. PMID:26378896

On the validity of travel-time based nonlinear bioreactive transport models in steady-state flow.

PubMed

Sanz-Prat, Alicia; Lu, Chuanhe; Finkel, Michael; Cirpka, Olaf A

2015-01-01

Travel-time based models simplify the description of reactive transport by replacing the spatial coordinates with the groundwater travel time, posing a quasi one-dimensional (1-D) problem and potentially rendering the determination of multidimensional parameter fields unnecessary. While the approach is exact for strictly advective transport in steady-state flow if the reactive properties of the porous medium are uniform, its validity is unclear when local-scale mixing affects the reactive behavior. We compare a two-dimensional (2-D), spatially explicit, bioreactive, advective-dispersive transport model, considered as "virtual truth", with three 1-D travel-time based models which differ in the conceptualization of longitudinal dispersion: (i) neglecting dispersive mixing altogether, (ii) introducing a local-scale longitudinal dispersivity constant in time and space, and (iii) using an effective longitudinal dispersivity that increases linearly with distance. The reactive system considers biodegradation of dissolved organic carbon, which is introduced into a hydraulically heterogeneous domain together with oxygen and nitrate. Aerobic and denitrifying bacteria use the energy of the microbial transformations for growth. We analyze six scenarios differing in the variance of log-hydraulic conductivity and in the inflow boundary conditions (constant versus time-varying concentration). The concentrations of the 1-D models are mapped to the 2-D domain by means of the kinematic (for case i), and mean groundwater age (for cases ii & iii), respectively. The comparison between concentrations of the "virtual truth" and the 1-D approaches indicates extremely good agreement when using an effective, linearly increasing longitudinal dispersivity in the majority of the scenarios, while the other two 1-D approaches reproduce at least the concentration tendencies well. At late times, all 1-D models give valid approximations of two-dimensional transport. We conclude that the

Travel patterns in China.

PubMed

Garske, Tini; Yu, Hongjie; Peng, Zhibin; Ye, Min; Zhou, Hang; Cheng, Xiaowen; Wu, Jiabing; Ferguson, Neil

2011-02-02

The spread of infectious disease epidemics is mediated by human travel. Yet human mobility patterns vary substantially between countries and regions. Quantifying the frequency of travel and length of journeys in well-defined population is therefore critical for predicting the likely speed and pattern of spread of emerging infectious diseases, such as a new influenza pandemic. Here we present the results of a large population survey undertaken in 2007 in two areas of China: Shenzhen city in Guangdong province, and Huangshan city in Anhui province. In each area, 10,000 randomly selected individuals were interviewed, and data on regular and occasional journeys collected. Travel behaviour was examined as a function of age, sex, economic status and home location. Women and children were generally found to travel shorter distances than men. Travel patterns in the economically developed Shenzhen region are shown to resemble those in developed and economically advanced middle income countries with a significant fraction of the population commuting over distances in excess of 50 km. Conversely, in the less developed rural region of Anhui, travel was much more local, with very few journeys over 30 km. Travel patterns in both populations were well-fitted by a gravity model with a lognormal kernel function. The results provide the first quantitative information on human travel patterns in modern China, and suggest that a pandemic emerging in a less developed area of rural China might spread geographically sufficiently slowly for containment to be feasible, while spatial spread in the more economically developed areas might be expected to be much more rapid, making containment more difficult.

Travelling wave solutions of the homogeneous one-dimensional FREFLO model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, B.; Hong, J. Y.; Jing, G. Q.; Niu, W.; Fang, L.

2018-01-01

Presently there is quite few analytical studies in traffic flows due to the non-linearity of the governing equations. In the present paper we introduce travelling wave solutions for the homogeneous one-dimensional FREFLO model, which are expressed in the form of series and describe the procedure that vehicles/pedestrians move with a negative velocity and decelerate until rest, then accelerate inversely to positive velocities. This method is expect to be extended to more complex situations in the future.

A global food demand model for the assessment of complex human-earth systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

EDMONDS, JAMES A.; LINK, ROBERT; WALDHOFF, STEPHANIE T.

Demand for agricultural products is an important problem in climate change economics. Food consumption will shape and shaped by climate change and emissions mitigation policies through interactions with bioenergy and afforestation, two critical issues in meeting international climate goals such as two-degrees. We develop a model of food demand for staple and nonstaple commodities that evolves with changing incomes and prices. The model addresses a long-standing issue in estimating food demands, the evolution of demand relationships across large changes in income and prices. We discuss the model, some of its properties and limitations. We estimate parameter values using pooled cross-sectional-time-seriesmore » observations and the Metropolis Monte Carlo method and cross-validate the model by estimating parameters using a subset of the observations and test its ability to project into the unused observations. Finally, we apply bias correction techniques borrowed from the climate-modeling community and report results.« less

Energy demand analytics using coupled technological and economic models

EPA Science Inventory

Impacts of a range of policy scenarios on end-use energy demand are examined using a coupling of MARKAL, an energy system model with extensive supply and end-use technological detail, with Inforum LIFT, a large-scale model of the us. economy with inter-industry, government, and c...

Metabolic energy demand and optimal walking speed in post-polio subjects with lower limb afflictions.

PubMed

Ghosh, A K; Ganguli, S; Bose, K S

1982-12-01

The metabolic demand, using the relationship between speed and energy cost, and the optimal speed of walking, estimated by means of speed and energy cost per unit distance travelled, were studied in 16 post-polio subjects with lower limb affliction and 20 normal subjects with sedentary habits. It was observed that the post-polio subjects consumed higher energy than the normal persons at each walking speed between 0.28 and 1.26 m/s. The optimal speed of walking in post-polio subjects was lower than that of the normal persons and was associated with a higher energy demand per unit distance travelled. It was deduced that the post-polio subjects. not having used any assistive devices for a long time, have acquired severe degrees of disability which not only hindered their normal gait but also demanded extra energy from them.

The noisy edge of traveling waves

PubMed Central

Hallatschek, Oskar

2011-01-01

Traveling waves are ubiquitous in nature and control the speed of many important dynamical processes, including chemical reactions, epidemic outbreaks, and biological evolution. Despite their fundamental role in complex systems, traveling waves remain elusive because they are often dominated by rare fluctuations in the wave tip, which have defied any rigorous analysis so far. Here, we show that by adjusting nonlinear model details, noisy traveling waves can be solved exactly. The moment equations of these tuned models are closed and have a simple analytical structure resembling the deterministic approximation supplemented by a nonlocal cutoff term. The peculiar form of the cutoff shapes the noisy edge of traveling waves and is critical for the correct prediction of the wave speed and its fluctuations. Our approach is illustrated and benchmarked using the example of fitness waves arising in simple models of microbial evolution, which are highly sensitive to number fluctuations. We demonstrate explicitly how these models can be tuned to account for finite population sizes and determine how quickly populations adapt as a function of population size and mutation rates. More generally, our method is shown to apply to a broad class of models, in which number fluctuations are generated by branching processes. Because of this versatility, the method of model tuning may serve as a promising route toward unraveling universal properties of complex discrete particle systems. PMID:21187435

A cross-sectional study of pre-travel health-seeking practices among travelers departing Sydney and Bangkok airports

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Pre-travel health assessments aim to promote risk reduction through preventive measures and safe behavior, including ensuring travelers are up-to-date with their immunizations. However, studies assessing pre-travel health-seeking practices from a variety of medical and non-medical sources and vaccine uptake prior to travel to both developing and developed countries within the Asia-Pacific region are scarce. Methods Cross-sectional surveys were conducted between July and December 2007 to assess pre-travel health seeking practices, including advice from health professionals, health information from other sources and vaccine uptake, in a sample of travelers departing Sydney and Bangkok airports. A two-stage cluster sampling technique was used to ensure representativeness of travelers and travel destinations. Pre-travel health seeking practices were assessed using a self-administered questionnaire distributed at the check-in queues of departing flights. Logistic regression models were used to identify significant factors associated with seeking pre-travel health advice from a health professional, reported separately for Australian residents, residents of other Western countries and residents of countries in Asia. Results A total of 843 surveys were included in the final sample (Sydney 729, response rate 56%; Bangkok 114, response rate 60%). Overall, pre-travel health information from any source was sought by 415 (49%) respondents with 298 (35%) seeking pre-travel advice from a health professional, the majority through general practice. Receipt of a pre-travel vaccine was reported by 100 (12%) respondents. Significant factors associated with seeking pre-travel health advice from a health professional differed by region of residence. Asian travelers were less likely to report seeking pre-travel health advice and uptake of pre-travel vaccines than Australian or other Western travelers. Migrant Australians were less likely to report seeking pre-travel health

A cross-sectional study of pre-travel health-seeking practices among travelers departing Sydney and Bangkok airports.

PubMed

Heywood, Anita E; Watkins, Rochelle E; Iamsirithaworn, Sopon; Nilvarangkul, Kessarawan; MacIntyre, C Raina

2012-05-02

Pre-travel health assessments aim to promote risk reduction through preventive measures and safe behavior, including ensuring travelers are up-to-date with their immunizations. However, studies assessing pre-travel health-seeking practices from a variety of medical and non-medical sources and vaccine uptake prior to travel to both developing and developed countries within the Asia-Pacific region are scarce. Cross-sectional surveys were conducted between July and December 2007 to assess pre-travel health seeking practices, including advice from health professionals, health information from other sources and vaccine uptake, in a sample of travelers departing Sydney and Bangkok airports. A two-stage cluster sampling technique was used to ensure representativeness of travelers and travel destinations. Pre-travel health seeking practices were assessed using a self-administered questionnaire distributed at the check-in queues of departing flights. Logistic regression models were used to identify significant factors associated with seeking pre-travel health advice from a health professional, reported separately for Australian residents, residents of other Western countries and residents of countries in Asia. A total of 843 surveys were included in the final sample (Sydney 729, response rate 56%; Bangkok 114, response rate 60%). Overall, pre-travel health information from any source was sought by 415 (49%) respondents with 298 (35%) seeking pre-travel advice from a health professional, the majority through general practice. Receipt of a pre-travel vaccine was reported by 100 (12%) respondents. Significant factors associated with seeking pre-travel health advice from a health professional differed by region of residence. Asian travelers were less likely to report seeking pre-travel health advice and uptake of pre-travel vaccines than Australian or other Western travelers. Migrant Australians were less likely to report seeking pre-travel health advice than Australian

Travel health attitudes among Turkish business travellers to African countries.

PubMed

Selcuk, Engin Burak; Kayabas, Uner; Binbasioglu, Hulisi; Otlu, Baris; Bayindir, Yasar; Bozdogan, Bulent; Karatas, Mehmet

The number of international travellers is increasing worldwide. Although health risks related to international travel are important and generally well-understood, the perception of these risks was unclear among Turkish travellers. We aimed to evaluate the attitudes and health risk awareness of Turkish travellers travelling to African countries. A survey was performed of Turkish travellers bound for Africa from Istanbul International Ataturk Airport in July 2013. A total of 124 travellers were enrolled in the study. Among them, 62.9% had information about their destination but only 11.3% had looked for information on health problems related to travel and their destination. Of all travellers, 53.2% had at least one vaccination before travelling. The most commonly administered vaccine was for typhoid. Among the travellers, 69.3% and 80.6% had "no idea" about yellow fever vaccination and malaria prophylaxis, respectively. A positive correlation was found between a higher level of travellers' education and receiving the recommended vaccination for the destination. Our study revealed significant gaps in the vaccination and chemoprophylaxis uptake of Turkish travellers departing to Africa. An awareness and training program should be developed for travellers, as well as public health workers, to address health risks related to travel. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Filling gaps in notification data: a model-based approach applied to travel related campylobacteriosis cases in New Zealand.

PubMed

Amene, E; Horn, B; Pirie, R; Lake, R; Döpfer, D

2016-09-06

Data containing notified cases of disease are often compromised by incomplete or partial information related to individual cases. In an effort to enhance the value of information from enteric disease notifications in New Zealand, this study explored the use of Bayesian and Multiple Imputation (MI) models to fill risk factor data gaps. As a test case, overseas travel as a risk factor for infection with campylobacteriosis has been examined. Two methods, namely Bayesian Specification (BAS) and Multiple Imputation (MI), were compared regarding predictive performance for various levels of artificially induced missingness of overseas travel status in campylobacteriosis notification data. Predictive performance of the models was assessed through the Brier Score, the Area Under the ROC Curve and the Percent Bias of regression coefficients. Finally, the best model was selected and applied to predict missing overseas travel status of campylobacteriosis notifications. While no difference was observed in the predictive performance of the BAS and MI methods at a lower rate of missingness (<10 %), but the BAS approach performed better than MI at a higher rate of missingness (50 %, 65 %, 80 %). The estimated proportion (95 % Credibility Intervals) of travel related cases was greatest in highly urban District Health Boards (DHBs) in Counties Manukau, Auckland and Waitemata, at 0.37 (0.12, 0.57), 0.33 (0.13, 0.55) and 0.28 (0.10, 0.49), whereas the lowest proportion was estimated for more rural West Coast, Northland and Tairawhiti DHBs at 0.02 (0.01, 0.05), 0.03 (0.01, 0.08) and 0.04 (0.01, 0.06), respectively. The national rate of travel related campylobacteriosis cases was estimated at 0.16 (0.02, 0.48). The use of BAS offers a flexible approach to data augmentation particularly when the missing rate is very high and when the Missing At Random (MAR) assumption holds. High rates of travel associated cases in urban regions of New Zealand predicted by this approach are

Travel Patterns in China

PubMed Central

Garske, Tini; Yu, Hongjie; Peng, Zhibin; Ye, Min; Zhou, Hang; Cheng, Xiaowen; Wu, Jiabing; Ferguson, Neil

2011-01-01

The spread of infectious disease epidemics is mediated by human travel. Yet human mobility patterns vary substantially between countries and regions. Quantifying the frequency of travel and length of journeys in well-defined population is therefore critical for predicting the likely speed and pattern of spread of emerging infectious diseases, such as a new influenza pandemic. Here we present the results of a large population survey undertaken in 2007 in two areas of China: Shenzhen city in Guangdong province, and Huangshan city in Anhui province. In each area, 10,000 randomly selected individuals were interviewed, and data on regular and occasional journeys collected. Travel behaviour was examined as a function of age, sex, economic status and home location. Women and children were generally found to travel shorter distances than men. Travel patterns in the economically developed Shenzhen region are shown to resemble those in developed and economically advanced middle income countries with a significant fraction of the population commuting over distances in excess of 50 km. Conversely, in the less developed rural region of Anhui, travel was much more local, with very few journeys over 30 km. Travel patterns in both populations were well-fitted by a gravity model with a lognormal kernel function. The results provide the first quantitative information on human travel patterns in modern China, and suggest that a pandemic emerging in a less developed area of rural China might spread geographically sufficiently slowly for containment to be feasible, while spatial spread in the more economically developed areas might be expected to be much more rapid, making containment more difficult. PMID:21311745

Interim analysis report : model deployment of a regional, multi-modal 511 traveler information system

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2004-02-17

This document presents the results of the analysis of baseline, or "pre-enhancement," data describing the operation of the existing 511 telephone traveler information system operated by the Arizona Department of Transportation (ADOT). The model deplo...

Travel for transplantation in iran: pros and cons regarding Iranian model.

PubMed

Ossareh, Shahrzad; Broumand, Behrooz

2015-04-01

Transplant tourism is one of the main unacceptable aspects of medical tourism, implicating travel to another country to receive an allograft. Organ shortages in wealthier countries have persuaded patients to preclude organ waiting lists and travel to other countries for getting organs especially kidneys. On the other hand, in many countries, there is no transplant program, and hemodialysis is expensive. Hence, patients with end-stage kidney disease may have to travel to get a kidney allograft for the sake of their lives. In Iran, a legal compensated and regulated living unrelated donor kidney transplant program has been adopted since 1988, in which recipients are matched with liveunrelated donors through the Iran Kidney Foundation and the recipients are compensated dually by the government and the recipient. In this model regulations were adopted to prevent transplant tourism: foreigners were not allowed to receive a kidney from Iranian donors or donate a kidney to Iranian patients; however, they could be transplanted from donors of their own nationality, after full medical workup, with the authorization of the Ministry of Health. This was first considered as a humanitarian assistance to patients of the countries with no transplant program and limited and low quality dialysis. However, the policy of "foreign nationality transplant" gradually established a spot where residents of many countries, where living-unrelated donor transplant was illegal, could bring their donors and be transplanted mainly in private hospitals, with high incentives for the transplant teams. By June 2014, six hundred eight foreign nationality kidney transplants were authorized by Ministry of Health for citizens for 17 countries. In this review, we examine the negative aspects of transplant for foreign citizens in Iran and the reasons that changed "travel for transplant" to "transplant tourism " in our country and finally led us to stop the program after more than 10 years.

Modelling a demand driven biogas system for production of electricity at peak demand and for production of biomethane at other times.

PubMed

O'Shea, R; Wall, D; Murphy, J D

2016-09-01

Four feedstocks were assessed for use in a demand driven biogas system. Biomethane potential (BMP) assays were conducted for grass silage, food waste, Laminaria digitata and dairy cow slurry. Semi-continuous trials were undertaken for all feedstocks, assessing biogas and biomethane production. Three kinetic models of the semi-continuous trials were compared. A first order model most accurately correlated with gas production in the pulse fed semi-continuous system. This model was developed for production of electricity on demand, and biomethane upgrading. The model examined a theoretical grass silage digester that would produce 435kWe in a continuous fed system. Adaptation to demand driven biogas required 187min to produce sufficient methane to run a 2MWe combined heat and power (CHP) unit for 60min. The upgrading system was dispatched 71min following CHP shutdown. Of the biogas produced 21% was used in the CHP and 79% was used in the upgrading system. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Residential demand for energy. Volume 1: Residential energy demand in the US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, L. D.; Blattenberger, G. R.; Rennhack, R. K.

1982-04-01

Updated and improved versions of the residential energy demand models that are currently used in EPRI's Demand 80/81 Model are presented. The primary objective of the study is the development and estimation of econometric demand models that take into account in a theoretically appropriate way the problems caused by decreasing-block pricing in the sale of electricity and natural gas. An ancillary objective is to take into account the impact on electricity, natural gas, and fuel oil demands of differences and changes in the availability of natural gas. Econometric models of residential demand are estimated for all three fuel tyes using time series data by state. Price and income elasticities for a number of alternative models are presented.

Characteristics and pre-travel preparation of travelers at a Canadian pediatric tertiary care travel clinic: A retrospective analysis.

PubMed

Ma, Xiao Wei; Pell, Lisa G; Akseer, Nadia; Khan, Sarah; Lam, Ray E; Louch, Debra; Science, Michelle; Morris, Shaun K

2016-01-01

International travelers are susceptible to a wide spectrum of travel related morbidities. Despite rising number of international travelers in Canada, the demographics, risk profiles, and preventative strategies of high-risk traveler groups, including pediatric travelers visiting friends and relatives (VFRs) are not well described. A descriptive analysis was conducted on pre-travel consultations completed between January 2013 and August 2014 at a large pediatric tertiary care center in Toronto, Canada. Data on demographics, travel characteristics, and pre-travel interventions were extracted from 370 pre-travel consultations. Results were compared between all VFR and non-VFR travelers, as well as between children traveling to visit friends and relatives, for vacation, and for education and/or volunteer purposes. Forty-eight percent of consultations were for children <18 years of age (n = 177), of which 31% were for young children (<5 years of age). Young children were more likely to travel to visit friends and/or relatives than for other purposes (29% vs 9%, p < 0.0001). Children VFRs (cVFRs) were more likely to travel for >28 days than children traveling for vacation (43% vs 1%, p < 0.0001), and children traveling for education/volunteer purposes (43% vs 21%, p = 0.03). Around half of cVFRs traveled to destinations in Asia (51%). The majority stayed with locals, friends and/or relatives (85%), and nearly all traveled to urban destinations (98%). The most prescribed interventions for children were azithromycin (84%), Dukoral (66%), and the hepatitis A vaccine (60%). Atovaquone/proguanil was the most commonly prescribed antimalarial for children. Children that travel to visit friends and relatives represent a unique travel group and may require specific considerations during pre-travel preparations. Our findings can help develop targeted pre-travel strategies for children VFRs. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Travel Medical Kit.

PubMed

Terry, Anne C; Haulman, N Jean

2016-03-01

"The traveler's medical kit is an essential tool for both the novice and expert traveler. It is designed to treat travel-related illness and injury and to ensure preexisting medical conditions are managed appropriately. Travelers are at increased risk for common gastrointestinal issues during travel. Respiratory illnesses make up approximately 8% of the ailments present in returned international travelers. Approximately 12% of travelers experience a travel-related skin condition. First aid treatment for minor injuries is essential to all travel medical kits. The complexity ranges from a small, simple case for the urban traveler to a larger, extensive case for wilderness travel." Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A model of the demand for Islamic banks debt-based financing instrument

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jusoh, Mansor; Khalid, Norlin

2013-04-01

This paper presents a theoretical analysis of the demand for debt-based financing instruments of the Islamic banks. Debt-based financing, such as through baibithamanajil and al-murabahah, is by far the most prominent of the Islamic bank financing and yet it has been largely ignored in Islamic economics literature. Most studies instead have been focusing on equity-based financing of al-mudharabah and al-musyarakah. Islamic bank offers debt-based financing through various instruments derived under the principle of exchange (ukud al-mu'awadhat) or more specifically, the contract of deferred sale. Under such arrangement, Islamic debt is created when goods are purchased and the payments are deferred. Thus, unlike debt of the conventional bank which is a form of financial loan contract to facilitate demand for liquid assets, this Islamic debt is created in response to the demand to purchase goods by deferred payment. In this paper we set an analytical framework that is based on an infinitely lived representative agent model (ILRA model) to analyze the demand for goods to be purchased by deferred payment. The resulting demand will then be used to derive the demand for Islamic debt. We also investigate theoretically, factors that may have an impact on the demand for Islamic debt.

Component Design Report: International Transportation Energy Demand Determinants Model

EIA Publications

2017-01-01

This Component Design Report discusses working design elements for a new model to replace the International Transportation Model (ITran) in the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS ) that is maintained by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The key objective of the new International Transportation Energy Demand Determinants (ITEDD) model is to enable more rigorous, quantitative research related to energy consumption in the international transportation sectors.

Demographics, health and travel characteristics of international travellers at a pre-travel clinic in Marseille, France.

PubMed

Aubry, Camille; Gaudart, Jean; Gaillard, Catherine; Delmont, Jean; Parola, Philippe; Brouqui, Philippe; Gautret, Philippe

2012-09-01

With the aim to identify at-risk individuals among a cohort of international travellers, 3442 individuals who sought advice at Marseille travel health centre in 2009 were prospectively included. Demographics, travel characteristics, chronic medical conditions, vaccinations and antimalarial chemoprophylaxis were documented. Chronic medical conditions were reported by 11% of individuals, including hypertension (39%), asthma (20%), thyroid disease (15%) and depression (13%). 4% reported taking a daily medication, and psychotropic and cardiovascular medications were the most commonly used. Older travellers (≥60 years) accounted for 10% of the travellers and the prevalence of chronic medical conditions was 27% in this group. Individuals aged 15 years or less accounted for 13% of the travellers. Age, last minute travel (17%) and neurological and psychiatric diseases were the most frequent factors that influenced Yellow fever vaccination and malaria chemoprophylaxis, with more than one tenth of the travellers reporting at least one risk factor for which adjusted advice may be necessary. Migrants visiting their relatives in their origin country accounted for 14% of travellers and 73% of this group travelled with their family including young children. We demonstrate that a significant proportion of travellers are at-risk (43%) because of their travel conditions (VFR), their age, or their health status, and should be targeted for risk reduction strategies. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Analysis of prevention of diseases in travellers on the basis of latest results in travel medicine].

PubMed

Felkai, Péter

2008-09-07

medicine: biomedical prophylaxis, assistance medicine, wilderness medicine and travel-insurance medicine. This "four-leaf clover" model is fit for the complex approach of the newly generated peritravel medical problems, both in Hungary and abroad. This kind of approach makes the doctor (who contacted the travellers at any respect: travel medicine specialists, GPs, occupational medicine specialists, insurance physicians) able to participate in the peritravel treatment or pretravel advising of travellers. The basic ideas of the prevention levels have to be established in each subdiscipline of travel medicine. Another urgent task is to establish a countrywide network of travel medicine facilities as well as the organisation of gradual and postgraduate education of physicians and professionals. We have to implement new forms and methods during training. Travel advising and peritravel prevention require well and continuously trained doctors.

Estimating the economic value of ice climbing in Hyalite Canyon: An application of travel cost count data models that account for excess zeros.

PubMed

Anderson, D Mark

2010-01-01

Recently, the sport of ice climbing has seen a dramatic increase in popularity. This paper uses the travel cost method to estimate the demand for ice climbing in Hyalite Canyon, Montana, one of the premier ice climbing venues in North America. Access to Hyalite and other ice climbing destinations have been put at risk due to liability issues, public land management agendas, and winter road conditions. To this point, there has been no analysis on the economic benefits of ice climbing. In addition to the novel outdoor recreation application, this study applies econometric methods designed to deal with "excess zeros" in the data. Depending upon model specification, per person per trip values are estimated to be in the range of $76 to $135. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

School Burnout and Engagement in the Context of Demands-Resources Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Salmela-Aro, Katariina; Upadyaya, Katja

2014-01-01

Background: A four-wave longitudinal study tested the demands-resources model in the school context. Aim: To examine the applicability of the demands-resources to the school context. Method: Data of 1,709 adolescents were gathered, once during the transition from comprehensive to post-comprehensive education, twice during post-comprehensive…

Air freight demand models: An overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dajani, J. S.; Bernstein, G. W.

1978-01-01

A survey is presented of some of the approaches which have been considered in freight demand estimation. The few existing continuous time computer simulations of aviation systems are reviewed, with a view toward the assessment of this approach as a tool for structuring air freight studies and for relating the different components of the air freight system. The variety of available data types and sources, without which the calibration, validation and the testing of both modal split and simulation models would be impossible are also reviewed.

Travellers' profile, travel patterns and vaccine practices--a 10-year prospective study in a Swiss Travel Clinic.

PubMed

Boubaker, Rim; Meige, Pierrette; Mialet, Catherine; Buffat, Chantal Ngarambe; Uwanyiligira, Mediatrice; Widmer, Francine; Rochat, Jacynthe; Fossati, Annie Hérard; Souvannaraj-Blanchant, Manisinh; Payot, Sylvie; Rochat, Laurence; de Vallière, Serge; Genton, Blaise; D'Acremont, Valérie

2016-01-01

The travel clinic in Lausanne serves a catchment area of 700 000 of inhabitants and provides pre- and post-travel consultations. This study describes the profile of attendees before departure, their travel patterns and the travel clinic practices in terms of vaccination over time. We included all pre-travel first consultation data recorded between November 2002 and December 2012 by a custom-made program DIAMM/G. We analysed client profiles, travel characteristics and vaccinations prescribed over time. Sixty-five thousand and forty-six client-trips were recorded. Fifty-one percent clients were female. Mean age was 32 years. In total, 0.1% were aged <1 year and 0.2% ≥80 years. Forty-six percent of travellers had pre-existing medical conditions. Forty-six percent were travelling to Africa, 35% to Asia, 20% to Latin America and 1% (each) to Oceania and Europe; 19% visited more than one country. India was the most common destination (9.6% of travellers) followed by Thailand (8.6%) and Kenya (6.4%). Seventy-three percent of travellers were planning to travel for ≤ 4 weeks. The main reasons for travel were tourism (75%) and visiting friends and relatives (18%). Sixteen percent were backpackers. Pre-travel advice were sought a median of 29 days before departure. Ninety-nine percent received vaccine(s). The most frequently administered vaccines were hepatitis A (53%), tetanus-diphtheria (46%), yellow fever (39%), poliomyelitis (38%) and typhoid fever (30%). The profile of travel clinic attendees was younger than the general Swiss population. A significant proportion of travellers received vaccinations that are recommended in the routine national programme. These findings highlight the important role of travel clinics to (i) take care of an age group that has little contact with general practitioners and (ii) update vaccination status. The most commonly prescribed travel-related vaccines were for hepatitis A and yellow fever. The question remains to know whether

PRT Impact Study Pre-PRT Phase : Volume 1. Travel Analysis.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1976-03-01

Part of a three-volume work, this report describes the analysis performed on travel data collected for the Pre-PRT Impact Study. The data analyzed consist of travel behavior, travel patterns, model utilization and travel costs of various modes of tra...

Individual traveller health priorities and the pre-travel health consultation.

PubMed

Flaherty, Gerard T; Chen, Bingling; Avalos, Gloria

2017-09-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the principal travel health priorities of travellers. The most frequently selected travel health concerns were accessing medical care abroad, dying abroad, insect bites, malaria, personal safety and travel security threats. The travel health risks of least concern were culture shock, fear of flying, jet lag and sexually transmitted infections. This study is the first to develop a hierarchy of self-declared travel health risk priorities among travellers. © International Society of Travel Medicine, 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

FHWA travel analysis framework : development of VMT forecasting models for use by the Federal Highway Administration

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-05-12

This document details the process that the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center (Volpe) used to develop travel forecasting models for the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA). The purpose of these models is to allow FHWA to forecast future c...

The variability, structure and energy conversion of the northern hemisphere traveling waves simulated in a Mars general circulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Huiqun; Toigo, Anthony D.

2016-06-01

Investigations of the variability, structure and energetics of the m = 1-3 traveling waves in the northern hemisphere of Mars are conducted with the MarsWRF general circulation model. Using a simple, annually repeatable dust scenario, the model reproduces many general characteristics of the observed traveling waves. The simulated m = 1 and m = 3 traveling waves show large differences in terms of their structures and energetics. For each representative wave mode, the geopotential signature maximizes at a higher altitude than the temperature signature, and the wave energetics suggests a mixed baroclinic-barotropic nature. There is a large contrast in wave energetics between the near-surface and higher altitudes, as well as between the lower latitudes and higher latitudes at high altitudes. Both barotropic and baroclinic conversions can act as either sources or sinks of eddy kinetic energy. Band-pass filtered transient eddies exhibit strong zonal variations in eddy kinetic energy and various energy transfer terms. Transient eddies are mainly interacting with the time mean flow. However, there appear to be non-negligible wave-wave interactions associated with wave mode transitions. These interactions include those between traveling waves and thermal tides and those among traveling waves.

Connected Traveler

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

2016-06-01

The Connected Traveler framework seeks to boost the energy efficiency of personal travel and the overall transportation system by maximizing the accuracy of predicted traveler behavior in response to real-time feedback and incentives. It is anticipated that this approach will establish a feedback loop that 'learns' traveler preferences and customizes incentives to meet or exceed energy efficiency targets by empowering individual travelers with information needed to make energy-efficient choices and reducing the complexity required to validate transportation system energy savings. This handout provides an overview of NREL's Connected Traveler project, including graphics, milestones, and contact information.

[Travel times of patients to ambulatory care physicians in Germany].

PubMed

Schang, Laura; Kopetsch, Thomas; Sundmacher, Leonie

2017-12-01

The time needed by patients to get to a doctor's office represents an important indicator of realised access to care. In Germany, findings on travel times are only available from surveys or for some regions. For the first time, this study examines nationwide and physician group-specific travel times in the ambulatory care sector in Germany and describes demographic, supply-side and spatial determinants of variations. Using a full review of patient consultations in the statutory health insurance system from 2009/2010 for 14 physician groups (approximately 518 million cases), case-related travel times by car between patients' places of residence and physician's practices were estimated at the municipal level. Physicians were reached in less than 30 min in 90.8% of cases for primary care physicians and up to 63% of cases for radiologists. Patients between 18 and under 30 years of age travel longer to get to the doctor than other age groups. The average travel time at the county level systematically differs between urban and rural planning areas. In the case of gynecologists, dermatologists and ophthalmologists, the average journey time decreases with increasing physician density at the county level, but remains approximately constant from a recognisable point of inflection. There is no association between primary care physician density and travel time at the district level. Spatial analyses show physician group-specific patterns of regional concentrations with an increased proportion of cases with very long travel times. Patients' travel times are influenced by supply- and demand-side determinants. Interactions between influential determinants should be analysed in depth to examine the extent to which the time travelled is an expression of regional under- or over-supply rather than an expression of patient preferences.

Testing simulation and structural models with applications to energy demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolff, Hendrik

2007-12-01

This dissertation deals with energy demand and consists of two parts. Part one proposes a unified econometric framework for modeling energy demand and examples illustrate the benefits of the technique by estimating the elasticity of substitution between energy and capital. Part two assesses the energy conservation policy of Daylight Saving Time and empirically tests the performance of electricity simulation. In particular, the chapter "Imposing Monotonicity and Curvature on Flexible Functional Forms" proposes an estimator for inference using structural models derived from economic theory. This is motivated by the fact that in many areas of economic analysis theory restricts the shape as well as other characteristics of functions used to represent economic constructs. Specific contributions are (a) to increase the computational speed and tractability of imposing regularity conditions, (b) to provide regularity preserving point estimates, (c) to avoid biases existent in previous applications, and (d) to illustrate the benefits of our approach via numerical simulation results. The chapter "Can We Close the Gap between the Empirical Model and Economic Theory" discusses the more fundamental question of whether the imposition of a particular theory to a dataset is justified. I propose a hypothesis test to examine whether the estimated empirical model is consistent with the assumed economic theory. Although the proposed methodology could be applied to a wide set of economic models, this is particularly relevant for estimating policy parameters that affect energy markets. This is demonstrated by estimating the Slutsky matrix and the elasticity of substitution between energy and capital, which are crucial parameters used in computable general equilibrium models analyzing energy demand and the impacts of environmental regulations. Using the Berndt and Wood dataset, I find that capital and energy are complements and that the data are significantly consistent with duality

Towards a Job Demands-Resources Health Model: Empirical Testing with Generalizable Indicators of Job Demands, Job Resources, and Comprehensive Health Outcomes.

PubMed

Brauchli, Rebecca; Jenny, Gregor J; Füllemann, Désirée; Bauer, Georg F

2015-01-01

Studies using the Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) model commonly have a heterogeneous focus concerning the variables they investigate-selective job demands and resources as well as burnout and work engagement. The present study applies the rationale of the JD-R model to expand the relevant outcomes of job demands and job resources by linking the JD-R model to the logic of a generic health development framework predicting more broadly positive and negative health. The resulting JD-R health model was operationalized and tested with a generalizable set of job characteristics and positive and negative health outcomes among a heterogeneous sample of 2,159 employees. Applying a theory-driven and a data-driven approach, measures which were generally relevant for all employees were selected. Results from structural equation modeling indicated that the model fitted the data. Multiple group analyses indicated invariance across six organizations, gender, job positions, and three times of measurement. Initial evidence was found for the validity of an expanded JD-R health model. Thereby this study contributes to the current research on job characteristics and health by combining the core idea of the JD-R model with the broader concepts of salutogenic and pathogenic health development processes as well as both positive and negative health outcomes.

Towards a Job Demands-Resources Health Model: Empirical Testing with Generalizable Indicators of Job Demands, Job Resources, and Comprehensive Health Outcomes

PubMed Central

Brauchli, Rebecca; Jenny, Gregor J.; Füllemann, Désirée; Bauer, Georg F.

2015-01-01

Studies using the Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) model commonly have a heterogeneous focus concerning the variables they investigate—selective job demands and resources as well as burnout and work engagement. The present study applies the rationale of the JD-R model to expand the relevant outcomes of job demands and job resources by linking the JD-R model to the logic of a generic health development framework predicting more broadly positive and negative health. The resulting JD-R health model was operationalized and tested with a generalizable set of job characteristics and positive and negative health outcomes among a heterogeneous sample of 2,159 employees. Applying a theory-driven and a data-driven approach, measures which were generally relevant for all employees were selected. Results from structural equation modeling indicated that the model fitted the data. Multiple group analyses indicated invariance across six organizations, gender, job positions, and three times of measurement. Initial evidence was found for the validity of an expanded JD-R health model. Thereby this study contributes to the current research on job characteristics and health by combining the core idea of the JD-R model with the broader concepts of salutogenic and pathogenic health development processes as well as both positive and negative health outcomes. PMID:26557718

Verification of Bayesian Clustering in Travel Behaviour Research – First Step to Macroanalysis of Travel Behaviour

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Satra, P.; Carsky, J.

2018-04-01

Our research is looking at the travel behaviour from a macroscopic view, taking one municipality as a basic unit. The travel behaviour of one municipality as a whole is becoming one piece of a data in the research of travel behaviour of a larger area, perhaps a country. A data pre-processing is used to cluster the municipalities in groups, which show similarities in their travel behaviour. Such groups can be then researched for reasons of their prevailing pattern of travel behaviour without any distortion caused by municipalities with a different pattern. This paper deals with actual settings of the clustering process, which is based on Bayesian statistics, particularly the mixture model. An optimization of the settings parameters based on correlation of pointer model parameters and relative number of data in clusters is helpful, however not fully reliable method. Thus, method for graphic representation of clusters needs to be developed in order to check their quality. A training of the setting parameters in 2D has proven to be a beneficial method, because it allows visual control of the produced clusters. The clustering better be applied on separate groups of municipalities, where competition of only identical transport modes can be found.

Retrieval-travel-time model for free-fall-flow-rack automated storage and retrieval system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metahri, Dhiyaeddine; Hachemi, Khalid

2018-03-01

Automated storage and retrieval systems (AS/RSs) are material handling systems that are frequently used in manufacturing and distribution centers. The modelling of the retrieval-travel time of an AS/RS (expected product delivery time) is practically important, because it allows us to evaluate and improve the system throughput. The free-fall-flow-rack AS/RS has emerged as a new technology for drug distribution. This system is a new variation of flow-rack AS/RS that uses an operator or a single machine for storage operations, and uses a combination between the free-fall movement and a transport conveyor for retrieval operations. The main contribution of this paper is to develop an analytical model of the expected retrieval-travel time for the free-fall flow-rack under a dedicated storage assignment policy. The proposed model, which is based on a continuous approach, is compared for accuracy, via simulation, with discrete model. The obtained results show that the maximum deviation between the continuous model and the simulation is less than 5%, which shows the accuracy of our model to estimate the retrieval time. The analytical model is useful to optimise the dimensions of the rack, assess the system throughput, and evaluate different storage policies.

Three Essays on National Oil Company Efficiency, Energy Demand and Transportation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eller, Stacy L.

This dissertation is composed of three separate essays in the field of energy economics. In the first paper, both data envelopment analysis and stochastic production frontier estimation are employed to provide empirical evidence on the revenue efficiency of national oil companies (NOCs) and private international oil companies (IOCs). Using a panel of 80 oil producing firms, the analysis suggests that NOCs are generally less efficient at generating revenue from a given resource base than IOCs, with some exceptions. Due to differing firm objectives, however, structural and institutional features may help explain much of the inefficiency. The second paper analyzes the relationship between economic development and the demand for energy. Energy consumption is modeled using panel data from 1990 to 2004 for 50 countries spanning all levels of development. We find the relationship between energy consumption and economic development corresponds to the structure of aggregate output and the nature of derived demand for electricity and direct-use fuels in each sector. Notably, the evidence of non-constant income elasticity of demand is much greater for electricity demand than for direct-use fuel consumption. In addition, we show that during periods of rapid economic development, one in which the short-term growth rate exceeds the long-run average, an increase in aggregate output is met by less energy-efficient capital. This is a result of capital being fixed in the short-term. As additional, more efficient capital stock is added to the production process, the short-term increase in energy intensity will diminish. In the third essay, we develop a system of equations to estimate a model of motor vehicle fuel consumption, vehicle miles traveled and implied fuel efficiency for the 67 counties of the State of Florida from 2001 to 2008. This procedure allows us to decompose the factors of fuel demand into elasticities of vehicle driving demand and fuel efficiency. Particular

Evaluating the use of transfers for improving demand responsive systems adopting zoning strategies.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-08-01

Due to widely dispersed population density over large and sparsely suburban/rural areas, : conventional fixed route transit services hardly satisfy the travel needs of their residents. As an : alternative, demand responsive transit (DRT) systems have...

Transportation Sector Model of the National Energy Modeling System. Volume 2 -- Appendices: Part 2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

The attachments contained within this appendix provide additional details about the model development and estimation process which do not easily lend themselves to incorporation in the main body of the model documentation report. The information provided in these attachments is not integral to the understanding of the model`s operation, but provides the reader with opportunity to gain a deeper understanding of some of the model`s underlying assumptions. There will be a slight degree of replication of materials found elsewhere in the documentation, made unavoidable by the dictates of internal consistency. Each attachment is associated with a specific component of themore » transportation model; the presentation follows the same sequence of modules employed in Volume 1. The following attachments are contained in Appendix F: Fuel Economy Model (FEM)--provides a discussion of the FEM vehicle demand and performance by size class models; Alternative Fuel Vehicle (AFV) Model--describes data input sources and extrapolation methodologies; Light-Duty Vehicle (LDV) Stock Model--discusses the fuel economy gap estimation methodology; Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Model--presents the data development for business, utility, and government fleet vehicles; Light Commercial Truck Model--describes the stratification methodology and data sources employed in estimating the stock and performance of LCT`s; Air Travel Demand Model--presents the derivation of the demographic index, used to modify estimates of personal travel demand; and Airborne Emissions Model--describes the derivation of emissions factors used to associate transportation measures to levels of airborne emissions of several pollutants.« less

Reduced Risk of Importing Ebola Virus Disease because of Travel Restrictions in 2014: A Retrospective Epidemiological Modeling Study.

PubMed

Otsuki, Shiori; Nishiura, Hiroshi

An epidemic of Ebola virus disease (EVD) from 2013-16 posed a serious risk of global spread during its early growth phase. A post-epidemic evaluation of the effectiveness of travel restrictions has yet to be conducted. The present study aimed to estimate the effectiveness of travel restrictions in reducing the risk of importation from mid-August to September, 2014, using a simple hazard-based statistical model. The hazard rate was modeled as an inverse function of the effective distance, an excellent predictor of disease spread, which was calculated from the airline transportation network. By analyzing datasets of the date of EVD case importation from the 15th of July to the 15th of September 2014, and assuming that the network structure changed from the 8th of August 2014 because of travel restrictions, parameters that characterized the hazard rate were estimated. The absolute risk reduction and relative risk reductions due to travel restrictions were estimated to be less than 1% and about 20%, respectively, for all models tested. Effectiveness estimates among African countries were greater than those for other countries outside Africa. The travel restrictions were not effective enough to expect the prevention of global spread of Ebola virus disease. It is more efficient to control the spread of disease locally during an early phase of an epidemic than to attempt to control the epidemic at international borders. Capacity building for local containment and coordinated and expedited international cooperation are essential to reduce the risk of global transmission.

Reduced Risk of Importing Ebola Virus Disease because of Travel Restrictions in 2014: A Retrospective Epidemiological Modeling Study

PubMed Central

Otsuki, Shiori

2016-01-01

Background An epidemic of Ebola virus disease (EVD) from 2013–16 posed a serious risk of global spread during its early growth phase. A post-epidemic evaluation of the effectiveness of travel restrictions has yet to be conducted. The present study aimed to estimate the effectiveness of travel restrictions in reducing the risk of importation from mid-August to September, 2014, using a simple hazard-based statistical model. Methodology/Principal Findings The hazard rate was modeled as an inverse function of the effective distance, an excellent predictor of disease spread, which was calculated from the airline transportation network. By analyzing datasets of the date of EVD case importation from the 15th of July to the 15th of September 2014, and assuming that the network structure changed from the 8th of August 2014 because of travel restrictions, parameters that characterized the hazard rate were estimated. The absolute risk reduction and relative risk reductions due to travel restrictions were estimated to be less than 1% and about 20%, respectively, for all models tested. Effectiveness estimates among African countries were greater than those for other countries outside Africa. Conclusions The travel restrictions were not effective enough to expect the prevention of global spread of Ebola virus disease. It is more efficient to control the spread of disease locally during an early phase of an epidemic than to attempt to control the epidemic at international borders. Capacity building for local containment and coordinated and expedited international cooperation are essential to reduce the risk of global transmission. PMID:27657544

Model Orlando regionally efficient travel management coordination center (MORE TMCC), phase II : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-09-01

The final report for the Model Orlando Regionally Efficient Travel Management Coordination Center (MORE TMCC) presents the details of : the 2-year process of the partial deployment of the original MORE TMCC design created in Phase I of this project...

Worldwide transportation/energy demand, 1975-2000. Revised Variflex model projections

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ayres, R.U.; Ayres, L.W.

1980-03-01

The salient features of the transportation-energy relationships that characterize the world of 1975 are reviewed, and worldwide (34 countries) long-range transportation demand by mode to the year 2000 is reviewed. A worldwide model is used to estimate future energy demand for transportation. Projections made by the forecasting model indicate that in the year 2000, every region will be more dependent on petroleum for the transportation sector than it was in 1975. This report is intended to highlight certain trends and to suggest areas for further investigation. Forecast methodology and model output are described in detail in the appendices. The reportmore » is one of a series addressing transportation energy consumption; it supplants and replaces an earlier version published in October 1978 (ORNL/Sub-78/13536/1).« less

Backus-Gilbert inversion of travel time data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, L. E.

1972-01-01

Application of the Backus-Gilbert theory for geophysical inverse problems to the seismic body wave travel-time problem is described. In particular, it is shown how to generate earth models that fit travel-time data to within one standard error and having generated such models how to describe their degree of uniqueness. An example is given to illustrate the process.

Travel Demand Model Development and Application Guidelines (Rev.)

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1995-06-01

There is a new challenge confronting state and regional agencies -- the : selection and development of appropriate analysis tools for application to the : planning problems presented by the 1990 Federal Clear Air Act Amendments (CAAA), : the 1991 Fed...

Travel and transplantation: travel-related diseases in transplant recipients.

PubMed

Kotton, Camille N

2012-12-01

Travel-related diseases may be seen in transplant recipients after travel, after transplant tourism, and via transmission from blood and organ donors, augmented by recent increases in travel, migration, and globalization. Such infections include tuberculosis, Plasmodium (malaria), Babesia, Trypanosoma cruzi (Chagas disease), Strongyloides, Coccidioides, Histoplasma, Leishmania, Brucella, HTLV, dengue, among numerous others. Review of cohorts of transplant recipients show that they tend to have minimal or suboptimal preparation prior to travel, with limited pretravel vaccination, medications, and education, which poses a greatly increased risk of travel-related infections and complications. The epidemiology of such travel-related infections in transplant recipients, along with methods for prevention, including vaccines, chemoprophylaxis, and education may help SOT recipients avoid travel-related infections, and are discussed in this review. Optimizing the understanding of the risk of tropical, geographically restricted, and other unusual or unexpected, travel-related infections will enhance the safety of vulnerable transplant recipients from potentially life-threatening infections.

Gibbon travel paths are goal oriented.

PubMed

Asensio, Norberto; Brockelman, Warren Y; Malaivijitnond, Suchinda; Reichard, Ulrich H

2011-05-01

Remembering locations of food resources is critical for animal survival. Gibbons are territorial primates which regularly travel through small and stable home ranges in search of preferred, limited and patchily distributed resources (primarily ripe fruit). They are predicted to profit from an ability to memorize the spatial characteristics of their home range and may increase their foraging efficiency by using a 'cognitive map' either with Euclidean or with topological properties. We collected ranging and feeding data from 11 gibbon groups (Hylobates lar) to test their navigation skills and to better understand gibbons' 'spatial intelligence'. We calculated the locations at which significant travel direction changes occurred using the change-point direction test and found that these locations primarily coincided with preferred fruit sources. Within the limits of biologically realistic visibility distances observed, gibbon travel paths were more efficient in detecting known preferred food sources than a heuristic travel model based on straight travel paths in random directions. Because consecutive travel change-points were far from the gibbons' sight, planned movement between preferred food sources was the most parsimonious explanation for the observed travel patterns. Gibbon travel appears to connect preferred food sources as expected under the assumption of a good mental representation of the most relevant sources in a large-scale space.

Travel determinants and multi-scale transferability of national activity patterns to local populations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Henson, Kriste M; Gou; ias, Konstadinos G

The ability to transfer national travel patterns to a local population is of interest when attempting to model megaregions or areas that exceed metropolitan planning organization (MPO) boundaries. At the core of this research are questions about the connection between travel behavior and land use, urban form, and accessibility. As a part of this process, a group of land use variables have been identified to define activity and travel patterns for individuals and households. The 2001 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) participants are divided into categories comprised of a set of latent cluster models representing persons, travel, and land use.more » These are compared to two sets of cluster models constructed for two local travel surveys. Comparison of means statistical tests are used to assess differences among sociodemographic groups residing in localities with similar land uses. The results show that the NHTS and the local surveys share mean population activity and travel characteristics. However, these similarities mask behavioral heterogeneity that are shown when distributions of activity and travel behavior are examined. Therefore, data from a national household travel survey cannot be used to model local population travel characteristics if the goal to model the actual distributions and not mean travel behavior characteristics.« less

National Freight Demand Modeling - Bridging the Gap between Freight Flow Statistics and U.S. Economic Patterns

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chin, Shih-Miao; Hwang, Ho-Ling

2007-01-01

This paper describes a development of national freight demand models for 27 industry sectors covered by the 2002 Commodity Flow Survey. It postulates that the national freight demands are consistent with U.S. business patterns. Furthermore, the study hypothesizes that the flow of goods, which make up the national production processes of industries, is coherent with the information described in the 2002 Annual Input-Output Accounts developed by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The model estimation framework hinges largely on the assumption that a relatively simple relationship exists between freight production/consumption and business patterns for each industry defined by the three-digit Northmore » American Industry Classification System industry codes (NAICS). The national freight demand model for each selected industry sector consists of two models; a freight generation model and a freight attraction model. Thus, a total of 54 simple regression models were estimated under this study. Preliminary results indicated promising freight generation and freight attraction models. Among all models, only four of them had a R2 value lower than 0.70. With additional modeling efforts, these freight demand models could be enhanced to allow transportation analysts to assess regional economic impacts associated with temporary lost of transportation services on U.S. transportation network infrastructures. Using such freight demand models and available U.S. business forecasts, future national freight demands could be forecasted within certain degrees of accuracy. These freight demand models could also enable transportation analysts to further disaggregate the CFS state-level origin-destination tables to county or zip code level.« less

Paediatric international travellers from Greece: characteristics and pre-travel recommendations.

PubMed

Maltezou, Helena C; Pavli, Androula; Spilioti, Athina; Katerelos, Panos; Theodoridou, Maria

2012-05-01

The aim of this study was to describe the children who seek pre-travel advice in Greece. During 2008-2010, 4065 persons sought pre-travel services in the 57 Prefectures, including 128 (3.15%) children <15 years. Main travel destinations were sub-Saharan Africa (54 children; 42.2%), South America (18; 14.1%), the Middle East (16; 12.5%), the Indian subcontinent (12; 9.4%), and South East Asia (7; 5.5%). Seventy-six children (59.4%) stayed for <1 month, 34 (26.6%) for 1-6 months, and 10 (7.8%) for >6 months. Recreation was the main purpose of travel (81 children; 63.3%), followed by work (24; 18.8%), and to visit friends and relatives (VFRs) (14; 10.9%). Paediatric travellers VFRs stayed more frequently in local residences compared to non-VFR paediatric travellers (85.7% and 20.2%). Children stayed more frequently in local residences and travelled more frequently for recreational purposes or to VFRs (27.3%, 63.3%, and 10.9%, respectively), compared to older travellers (11.9%, 58.8%, and 4%, respectively). Malaria chemoprophylaxis was prescribed for 64.8% of children travelling to sub-Saharan Africa. This study demonstrated clearly that only a very small number of international paediatric travellers seek pre-travel services in Greece. Communication strategies to access paediatric travellers should be developed in order to improve travel medicine services for children in Greece. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

25 CFR 700.533 - Restrictions affecting travel and travel expense reimbursement.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... 25 Indians 2 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Restrictions affecting travel and travel expense... travel and travel expense reimbursement. (a) When an employee is on officially authorized travel his or... in cash or kind for travel expenses from any other source, even when the employee's expenses exceed...

25 CFR 700.533 - Restrictions affecting travel and travel expense reimbursement.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... 25 Indians 2 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Restrictions affecting travel and travel expense... travel and travel expense reimbursement. (a) When an employee is on officially authorized travel his or... in cash or kind for travel expenses from any other source, even when the employee's expenses exceed...

25 CFR 700.533 - Restrictions affecting travel and travel expense reimbursement.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 25 Indians 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Restrictions affecting travel and travel expense... travel and travel expense reimbursement. (a) When an employee is on officially authorized travel his or... in cash or kind for travel expenses from any other source, even when the employee's expenses exceed...

25 CFR 700.533 - Restrictions affecting travel and travel expense reimbursement.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 25 Indians 2 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Restrictions affecting travel and travel expense... travel and travel expense reimbursement. (a) When an employee is on officially authorized travel his or... in cash or kind for travel expenses from any other source, even when the employee's expenses exceed...

25 CFR 700.533 - Restrictions affecting travel and travel expense reimbursement.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 25 Indians 2 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Restrictions affecting travel and travel expense... travel and travel expense reimbursement. (a) When an employee is on officially authorized travel his or... in cash or kind for travel expenses from any other source, even when the employee's expenses exceed...

Travel and Tourism Module. An Advanced-Level Option For Distribution and Marketing.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

New York State Education Dept., Albany. Bureau of Occupational Education Curriculum Development.

Intended as an advanced option for distributive education students in the twelfth grade, this travel and tourism module is designed to cover a minimum of ten weeks or a maximum of twenty weeks. Introductory material includes information on employment demands, administrative considerations, course format, teaching suggestions, expected outcomes,…

Socioeconomic and travel demand forecasts for Virginia and potential policy responses : a report for VTrans2035 : Virginia's statewide multimodal transportation plan.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-01-01

VTrans2035, Virginia's statewide multimodal transportation plan, requires 25-year forecasts of socioeconomic and travel activity. Between 2010 and 2035, daily vehicle miles traveled (DVMT) will increase between 35% and 45%, accompanied by increases i...

Vaccination knowledge, attitude and practice among Chinese travelers who visit travel clinics in Preparation for international travel.

PubMed

Zhang, Min; Zhang, Jianming; Hao, Yutong; Fan, ZhengXing; Li, Lei; Li, Yiguang; Ju, Wendong; Zhang, Hong; Liu, Wei; Zhang, Mengzhang; Wu, Di; He, Hongtao

2016-06-01

Although international travel has become increasingly more common in main land China, few data are available on vaccination knowledge, attitude and practice (KAP) among Chinese travelers. In each of 14 International Travel Healthcare Centers (ITHCs) situated in mainland China 200 volunteers were recruited for a cross-sectional investigation by questionnaire on KAP related to travel vaccinations. For the evaluation the study subjects were grouped by demographic data, past travel experience, travel destination, duration of stay abroad, purpose of travel. Among the 2,800 Chinese travelers who participated in the study, 67.1% were aware of national and travel vaccination recommendations. The knowledge about vaccine preventable diseases was low. The most common sources (73.4%) of information were requirements by destination countries obtained in connection with the visa application, Chinese companies employing workers/laborers for assignments overseas, and foreign schools. The overall acceptance rate of recommended vaccines was 68.7%, but yellow fever was accepted by 99.8% of the participants when recommended. Among 81.1% respondents who recalled to have received vaccinations in the past, only 25.9% of them brought the old vaccination records with them to their ITHC consultations. The results indicate that increased awareness of the importance of pre-travel vaccination is needed among the travellers in order to improve their KAP. © International Society of Travel Medicine, 2016. All rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Estimation of the demand for commercial truck parking on interstate highways in Virginia

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2003-01-01

The steady growth of commercial truck traveling on most Interstate and primary highways has resulted in increasing demand for both public rest areas and private truck stops in Virginia. In addition, inadequate parking spaces for commercial trucks may...

77 FR 5252 - Federal Travel Regulation; GSA E-Gov Travel Service (ETS) Transition to E-Gov Travel Service 2...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-02-02

... Travel Regulation; GSA E-Gov Travel Service (ETS) Transition to E-Gov Travel Service 2 (ETS2) AGENCY... (QMC), at [email protected]gov or (703) 605-2151. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The Federal Travel...-GOV TRAVEL SERVICE GSA Bulletin ETS 12-01 TO: Heads of Federal Agencies SUBJECT: GSA E-Gov Travel...

Time-Dependent Traveling Wave Tube Model for Intersymbol Interference Investigations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kory, Carol L.; Andro, Monty; Downey, Alan (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

For the first time, a computational model has been used to provide a direct description of the effects of the traveling wave tube (TWT) on modulated digital signals. The TWT model comprehensively takes into account the effects of frequency dependent AM/AM and AM/PM conversion, gain and phase ripple; drive-induced oscillations; harmonic generation; intermodulation products; and backward waves. Thus, signal integrity can be investigated in the presence of these sources of potential distortion as a function of the physical geometry of the high power amplifier and the operational digital signal. This method promises superior predictive fidelity compared to methods using TWT models based on swept-amplitude and/or swept-frequency data. The fully three-dimensional (3D), time-dependent, TWT interaction model using the electromagnetic code MAFIA is presented. This model is used to investigate assumptions made in TWT black-box models used in communication system level simulations. In addition, digital signal performance, including intersymbol interference (ISI), is compared using direct data input into the MAFIA model and using the system level analysis tool, SPW.

Electric Water Heater Modeling and Control Strategies for Demand Response

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Diao, Ruisheng; Lu, Shuai; Elizondo, Marcelo A.

2012-07-22

Abstract— Demand response (DR) has a great potential to provide balancing services at normal operating conditions and emergency support when a power system is subject to disturbances. Effective control strategies can significantly relieve the balancing burden of conventional generators and reduce investment on generation and transmission expansion. This paper is aimed at modeling electric water heaters (EWH) in households and tests their response to control strategies to implement DR. The open-loop response of EWH to a centralized signal is studied by adjusting temperature settings to provide regulation services; and two types of decentralized controllers are tested to provide frequency supportmore » following generator trips. EWH models are included in a simulation platform in DIgSILENT to perform electromechanical simulation, which contains 147 households in a distribution feeder. Simulation results show the dependence of EWH response on water heater usage . These results provide insight suggestions on the need of control strategies to achieve better performance for demand response implementation. Index Terms— Centralized control, decentralized control, demand response, electrical water heater, smart grid« less

Travelers' thrombosis.

PubMed

Johnston, Raymond V; Hudson, Martin F

2014-02-01

The suggestion that venous thromboembolism (VTE) is associated with air travel has for several decades been the subject of both "media hype" and extensive debate in the medical literature. As emotion and anecdote is often a feature in this debate, it is therefore necessary to separate evidence from anecdote. "Travelers' thrombosis" is a more appropriate term because the evidence suggests that any form of travel involving immobility lasting more than 4 h can predispose to thrombosis. There is no unique factor in the air travel cabin environment that has been shown to have any effect on the coagulation cascade. Prevention of thrombosis in any form of travel, including air travel, requires being aware of the issue and making an adequate risk assessment together with appropriate prophylactic measures.

Travelers' Health

MedlinePlus

... Minute Travel Long-Term Travel Mass Gatherings Medical Tourism Mental Health Motion Sickness Natural Disasters Pregnant Travelers Road Safety Senior Citizens Sex Tourism STDs Sun Exposure Swimming and Diving Study Abroad ...

Florida Model Information eXchange System (MIXS).

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-08-01

Transportation planning largely relies on travel demand forecasting, which estimates the number and type of vehicles that will use a roadway at some point in the future. Forecasting estimates are made by computer models that use a wide variety of dat...

Job Demand and Job Resources related to the turnover intention of public health nurses: An analysis using a Job Demands-Resources model.

PubMed

Iguchi, Aya

2016-01-01

Objectives The purpose of this study was to investigate the job demands and job resources of public health nurses based on the Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) model, and to build a model that can estimate turnover intention based on job demands and job resources.Method By adding 12 items to the existing questionnaire, the author created a questionnaire consisting of 10 factors and 167 items, and used statistical analysis to examine job demands and job resources in relation to turnover intention.Results Out of 2,668 questionnaires sent, 1993 (72.5%) were returned. Considering sex-based differences in occupational stress, I analyzed women's answers in 1766 (66.2%) mails among the 1798 valid responses. The average age of respondents was 41.0±9.8 years, and the mean service duration was 17.0±10.0 years. For public health nurses, there was a turnover intention of 9.2%. The "job demands" section consisted of 29 items and 10 factors, while the "job resources" section consisted of 54 items and 22 factors. The result of examining the structure of job demands and job resources, leading to turnover intention was supported by the JD-R model. Turnover intention was strong and the Mental Component Summary (MCS) is low in those who had many job demands and few job resources (experiencing 'burn-out'). Enhancement of work engagement and turnover intention was weak in those who had many job resources. This explained approximately 60% of the dispersion to "burn-out", and approximately 40% to "work engagement", with four factors: work suitability, work significance, positive work self-balance, and growth opportunity of job resources.Conclusion This study revealed that turnover intention is strong in those who are burned out because of many job demands. Enhancement of work engagement and turnover intention is weak in those with many job resources. This suggests that suitable staffing and organized efforts to raise awareness of job significance are effective in reducing

Alaska North Slope Tundra Travel Model and Validation Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harry R. Bader; Jacynthe Guimond

2006-03-01

The Alaska Department of Natural Resources (DNR), Division of Mining, Land, and Water manages cross-country travel, typically associated with hydrocarbon exploration and development, on Alaska's arctic North Slope. This project is intended to provide natural resource managers with objective, quantitative data to assist decision making regarding opening of the tundra to cross-country travel. DNR designed standardized, controlled field trials, with baseline data, to investigate the relationships present between winter exploration vehicle treatments and the independent variables of ground hardness, snow depth, and snow slab thickness, as they relate to the dependent variables of active layer depth, soil moisture, and photosyntheticallymore » active radiation (a proxy for plant disturbance). Changes in the dependent variables were used as indicators of tundra disturbance. Two main tundra community types were studied: Coastal Plain (wet graminoid/moist sedge shrub) and Foothills (tussock). DNR constructed four models to address physical soil properties: two models for each main community type, one predicting change in depth of active layer and a second predicting change in soil moisture. DNR also investigated the limited potential management utility in using soil temperature, the amount of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) absorbed by plants, and changes in microphotography as tools for the identification of disturbance in the field. DNR operated under the assumption that changes in the abiotic factors of active layer depth and soil moisture drive alteration in tundra vegetation structure and composition. Statistically significant differences in depth of active layer, soil moisture at a 15 cm depth, soil temperature at a 15 cm depth, and the absorption of photosynthetically active radiation were found among treatment cells and among treatment types. The models were unable to thoroughly investigate the interacting role between snow depth and disturbance due to

Travelers' Diarrhea

MedlinePlus

... Climates Humanitarian Aid Workers Humanitarian Aid Workers in Ecuador Insurance International Adoption Jet Lag Last-Minute Travel Long-Term Travel Mass Gatherings Medical Tourism Mental Health Motion Sickness Natural Disasters Pregnant Travelers ...

Short-term electric power demand forecasting based on economic-electricity transmission model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Wenfeng; Bai, Hongkun; Liu, Wei; Liu, Yongmin; Wang, Yubin Mao; Wang, Jiangbo; He, Dandan

2018-04-01

Short-term electricity demand forecasting is the basic work to ensure safe operation of the power system. In this paper, a practical economic electricity transmission model (EETM) is built. With the intelligent adaptive modeling capabilities of Prognoz Platform 7.2, the econometric model consists of three industrial added value and income levels is firstly built, the electricity demand transmission model is also built. By multiple regression, moving averages and seasonal decomposition, the problem of multiple correlations between variables is effectively overcome in EETM. The validity of EETM is proved by comparison with the actual value of Henan Province. Finally, EETM model is used to forecast the electricity consumption of the 1-4 quarter of 2018.

Life-cycle energy implications of different residential settings : recognizing buildings, travel, and public infrastructure.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-08-01

The built environment can be used to influence travel demand, but very few studies consider the relative energy : savings of such policies in context of a complex urban system. This analysis quantifies the day-to-day and embodied : energy consumption...

An Integrated Computer Modeling Environment for Regional Land Use, Air Quality, and Transportation Planning

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-04-01

The Land Use, Air Quality, and Transportation Integrated Modeling Environment (LATIME) represents an integrated approach to computer modeling and simulation of land use allocation, travel demand, and mobile source emissions for the Albuquerque, New M...

A Model for the Stop Planning and Timetables of Customized Buses.

PubMed

Ma, Jihui; Zhao, Yanqing; Yang, Yang; Liu, Tao; Guan, Wei; Wang, Jiao; Song, Cuiying

2017-01-01

Customized buses (CBs) are a new mode of public transportation and an important part of diversified public transportation, providing advanced, attractive and user-led service. The operational activity of a CB is planned by aggregating space-time demand and similar passenger travel demands. Based on an analysis of domestic and international research and the current development of CBs in China and considering passenger travel data, this paper studies the problems associated with the operation of CBs, such as stop selection, line planning and timetables, and establishes a model for the stop planning and timetables of CBs. The improved immune genetic algorithm (IIGA) is used to solve the model with regard to the following: 1) multiple population design and transport operator design, 2) memory library design, 3) mutation probability design and crossover probability design, and 4) the fitness calculation of the gene segment. Finally, a real-world example in Beijing is calculated, and the model and solution results are verified and analyzed. The results illustrate that the IIGA solves the model and is superior to the basic genetic algorithm in terms of the number of passengers, travel time, average passenger travel time, average passenger arrival time ahead of schedule and total line revenue. This study covers the key issues involving operational systems of CBs, combines theoretical research and empirical analysis, and provides a theoretical foundation for the planning and operation of CBs.

The 30/20 GHz fixed communications systems service demand assessment. Volume 1: Executive summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gamble, R. B.; Seltzer, H. R.; Speter, K. M.; Westheimer, M.

1979-01-01

Demand for telecommunications services is forecasted for the period 1980-2000, with particular reference to that portion of the demand associated with satellite communications. Overall demand for telecommunications is predicted to increase by a factor of five over the period studied and the satellite portion of demand will increase even more rapidly. Traffic demand is separately estimated for voice, video, and data services and is also described as a function of distance traveled and city size. The satellite component of projected demand is compared with the capacity available in the C and Ku satellite bands and it is projected that new satellite technology and the implementation of Ka band transmission will be needed in the decade of the 1990's.