Growth and Decline: Visualizing U.S. Population Change by County

Visualizing U.S. Population Change by County (2010-2018)

The American Heartland continues to feed the growth of urban centers — not only with its agricultural products and natural resources, but with its people as well.

Across the nation, coastal urban centers are adding new citizens, while rural counties are seeing their populations decline. Outside of this general trend, fracking has created some rare pockets of growth in rural areas, while coal mine closures have had the opposite effect.

Today’s map comes to us from Reddit user jinkinson, and it maps U.S. population change by county from 2010 to 2018, using data from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Uneven Growth

From 2010 to 2018, the total United States population increased by 6% from 308,745,538 to 327,167,434. However, it’s clear that not all counties participated in this uptrend.

There are 3,142 counties counted as part of this map (Puerto Rico and U.S. territories excluded). Of these, 1,489 experienced positive growth, while 1,653 saw a decline.

Which Counties are Growing the Fastest?

America’s economy has grown for over a decade, but that growth increasingly concentrates in 1% of the nation’s counties.

In fact, just 31 counties were responsible for 32.3% of the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) in 2018, according to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Although economic concentration tells part of the story, a view of changing population patterns can help us see where physical growth is happening across the country.

Top 20 Counties for U.S. Population Growth

Rank	State	County Name	2010 Population	2018 Population	% Change
#1	North Dakota	McKenzie County	6,360	13,632	114%
#2	Texas	Loving County	82	152	85%
#3	North Dakota	Williams County	22,398	35,350	58%
#4	Texas	Hays County	157,107	222,631	42%
#5	Utah	Wasatch County	23,530	33,240	41%
#6	Tennessee	Trousdale County	7,870	11,012	40%
#7	Texas	Hudspeth County	3,476	4,795	38%
#8	Florida	Sumter County	93,420	128,754	38%
#9	Florida	Osceola County	268,685	367,990	37%
#10	Texas	Comal County	108,472	148,373	37%
#11	Texas	Kendall County	33,410	45,641	37%
#12	Iowa	Dallas County	66,135	90,180	36%
#13	Georgia	Forsyth County	175,511	236,612	35%
#14	Texas	Fort Bend County	585,375	787,858	34%
#15	Texas	Williamson County	422,679	566,719	34%
#16	Florida	St. Johns County	190,039	254,261	34%
#17	North Dakota	Mountrail County	7,673	10,218	33%
#18	Georgia	Long County	14,464	18,998	31%
#19	South Dakota	Lincoln County	44,828	58,807	31%
#2	Virginia	Loudoun County	312,311	406,850	30%

At the top of the list is McKenzie County, North Dakota, which experienced a growth of 114% in its population from 2010 to 2018. This is due to the shale gas industry that flourished in the area. Interestingly, all of North Dakota’s active oil and gas rigs are in just four counties: McKenzie, Dunn, Williams, and Mountrail, three of which make the top 20 list above.

The fracking boom also fueled growth in Texas, where six counties made the list.

However, immediate economic success built on fracking sands and sensitive commodity prices may not be sustainable over the longer term. In fact, counties from a previous energy era are already seeing what happens when demand dries up.

Which Counties are Declining the Fastest?

If you look at a map of coal operations in the U.S. and compare it to the list of declining counties below, a stark pattern appears.

Half of country’s coal miners work in just 25 counties, and as mines close there are fewer economic opportunities available in those areas.

Top 20 Counties for U.S. Population Decline

Rank	State	County Name	2010 Population	2018 Population	% Change
#1	Illinois	Alexander County	8,238	6,060	-26%
#2	Oklahoma	Blaine County	11,943	9,485	-21%
#3	West Virginia	McDowell County	22,113	18,223	-18%
#4	Kansas	Morton County	3,233	2,667	-18%
#5	Arkansas	Phillips County	21,757	18,029	-17%
#6	Texas	Terrell County	984	823	-16%
#7	Texas	Schleicher County	3,461	2,895	-16%
#8	Alaska	Petersburg Borough	3,815	3,221	-16%
#9	Arkansas	Monroe County	8,149	6,900	-15%
#10	Louisiana	Tensas Parish	5,252	4,462	-15%
#11	South Carolina	Allendale County	10,419	8,903	-15%
#12	Michigan	Ontonagon County	6,780,	5,795	-15%
#13	Mississippi	Quitman County	8,223	7,051	-14%
#14	Alabama	Macon County	21,452	18,439	-14%
#15	Arkansas	Lee County	10,424	8,985	-14%
#16	Alabama	Perry County	10,591	9,140	-14%
#17	Virginia	Emporia city	5,927	5,121	-14%
#18	Mississippi	Coahoma County	26,151	22,628	-13%
#19	Colorado	Kit Carson County	8,270	7,163	-13%
#20	Texas	Mitchell County	9,403	8,145	-13%

While coal counties have grim figures due to the changing domestic energy story, it’s Alexander County in Illinois that tops the list with a 26% decline in population over the time period.

In fact, the harsh reality is that 93% of Illinois’ counties have seen a decrease in population between 2010-2018.

State by State: Winners and Losers

The number of declining counties within a state reveals a larger picture. Visual Capitalist aggregated county level data to reveal the patterns of U.S. states.

Illinois tops the list with the most people leaving its counties, while areas such as the District of Columbia and Delaware experienced no declines.

What happens to a state where the majority of its counties are losing residents?

The Big Picture

Americans are seeking out opportunity where it resides: in the cities. The pursuit of fracking oil and gas created opportunities in regions beyond the coast or traditional urban centers.

However, the long term trend of concentration of people on coasts and in major urban centers will continue to impact infrastructure spending, labor mobility, and economic activity. America no longer derives the majority of its economic success from rural counties and industries.

It is unclear how rural counties will fare as their denizens continue to dwindle. What is clear is that the few that rely on natural resources for success will continue to experience the ups and downs of volatile commodity markets.