College Football Playoff contenders and pretenders 3 weeks into the season

Identifying the pretenders and contenders in college football after three weeks.

Brandon MarcelloSep 22nd, 2021, 11:30 AM

Not all teams begin a college football season clicking on all cylinders, punishing opponents in the trenches with their hulking bruisers and firing unreachable passes to their world-class speedsters at receiver.

Some teams explode out of the gate and never look back at the pack of wannabe contenders on their way to the College Football Playoff three months later. The 2021 season seems much different than the others in the playoff era, however. The elite have noticeable weaknesses and the wannabes suddenly look like could-bes in what is shaping up to be wild races across conferences and, ultimately, the four-team field at the end of the season.

Already we have seen our fair share of drama among the nation's best. Nineteen teams ranked in the AP poll have fallen, the most ever in the first three weeks of a season. Ohio State was shocked by Oregon at home. Alabama's offense slowed to a crawl as Florida mounted a comeback that sent the Tide scrambling for answers before ultimately hanging on for a two-point win in The Swamp. Clemson's offense, the pillar of college football over the last decade, suddenly looks pedestrian with a new quarterback at the helm.

And then there are those teams on the periphery, doing just enough to hang around and make it seem like anything is possible as the elite hang on to their precious spots, not knowing if their once-strong grasp on the sport will slip or tighten as conference games hit the schedule.

"You look across the country, you might have four or five teams that are playing exceptionally well right now, and most everybody else is essentially beating themselves," Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy said Saturday. "If you can avoid beating yourself, it gives you a chance in most games."

That was once only the case for the wannabes and those teams on the periphery. Now, in 2021, with Super Seniors on rosters across the country and an influx of new quarterbacks, it seems anything is possible. Still, with a quarter of the season already expired, we can more easily identify the true contenders and pretenders in the playoff race.

Pretender: Iowa

Iowa (3-0) might have impressive wins on its resume but the ever-so-boring way of success under Kirk Ferentz does not translate into exciting TV or, for that matter, into positive trends for the program in the realm of advanced analytics that usually pave the road to a championship. The Hawkeyes' offense ranks 56th and the defense is 36th, according to Pro Football Focus' advanced grades, even with the scoring defense (10 points per game) ranking fourth nationally. It's entirely possible the Hawkeyes own two wins against ranked teams that are, well, teams that might not be ranked at the end of the season (Indiana and Iowa State).

The offense is not exactly explosive. Plays gaining more than 15 yards occur on only 8.1% of their pass completions, which is the seventh-lowest rate in the Power Five, according to Pro Football Focus.

Explosive offenses win titles in this era of college football and the Hawkeyes are not explosive.

Contender: Oregon

Oregon (3-0) provided college football with the first shocking victory of the season with a impressive showing on the road at Ohio Sate in Week 2. Quarterback Anthony Brown, who many believed could hold the Ducks' offense back from being an elite group, proved himself worthy of being considered among the greats with several clutch throws late in that 35-28 victory at The Shoe.

The defense did just fine against the Buckeyes and did so without the two best defenders on the field. Pass-rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux will be the difference in a playoff-like game later this season, but the Ducks might not need a career-defining game from him until they've actually reached the playoff. The Pac-12 is in disarray and the Ducks, on paper, should push and shove their way through the conference on their way to securing an undefeated regular season and a spot in the playoff.

One loss, however, will probably sink the Ducks. There's no room for error in Eugene.

Pretender: Clemson

D.J. Uiagalelei has yet to provide an eye-popping performance in his first season as Clemson's full-time starter. In fact, it's been an eye-opening experience with lackluster showings, misfired passes, turnovers and an incredibly-disturbing close call against Georgia Tech in a span of three weekends.

That's too bad for Clemson (2-1), which has a championship defense (and it might be the best ever under veteran coordinator Brent Venables) and enough skill players on offense to carry the team to the playoff. The Tigers may very well still reach the CFP but does anyone have confidence they would make any noise with Uiagalelei performing at this level?

Uiagalelei ranks 111th among quarterbacks in big-time throw rate (3.2%), according to Pro Football Focus, a metric defined by "a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and into a tighter window." In other words, the elite throws that elite quarterbacks need to make more often than the average player.

He is also 7 of 20 passing on intermediate routes (10-19 yards) and 3 of 9 beyond 20 yards, combining for a completion percentage of 52.6% on throws beyond 10 yards.

The Tigers rank second nationally in scoring defense (7 points per game) and No. 10 in third-down defense. The scoring offense is tied for 105th nationally, which includes a terrible 14-point performance against Tech.

Contender: Alabama

Alabama (3-0) owns two wins against nationally-ranked foes, and though one is against a worse-than-expected Miami squad, the victory against Florida last week is the second-most impressive victory among the playoff contenders.

The Tide has work to do on defense, particularly on the edge, and the offense isn't invincible like it was last season, but the roster is built to make another championship run, even if Tide fans will just have to get used to a season without shattering every record available.

The analysts at Pro Football Focus broached an interesting subject that might signal more shakiness on the horizon: the passing offense relied too much on Bryce Young to be successful under pressure and third downs (which he excelled against Florida) to move the offense. That means the Tide was at their best in bad situations offensively, which isn't sustainable for an entire season. Those games against Ole Miss and Texas A&M over the next month loom large.

Pretender: Ohio State

Ohio State's defense is worse than we thought. Defensive coordinator Kerry Coombs was softly demoted (secondary coach Matt Barnes called plays last week) and the Buckeyes are just going to have to figure this mess out on the fly. It appears Ohio State (2-1) is destined for a slump after a run to the national championship game last season.

Quarterback C.J. Stroud has received his fair share of criticism (including our Week 3 Overreactions) but he's not why the Buckeyes lost to Oregon or struggled against Tulsa, though there is one area he needs to improve (as a runner). Stroud is seventh nationally in big-time throw rate (9.6%) and practically carried the team within striking distance of a comeback against Oregon in Week 2, and even as he deals with shoulder pain, he should be the starting quarterback when the Bucks re-enter conference play.

The issue is that defense, which ranks 92nd in scoring (28.7), 117th in passing yards (289.7) and grades overall at No. 80 in PFF's advanced analytics. The Buckeyes' tackling is sharp, ranking ninth in the Power Five, according to PFF. The discipline is there but the schematic creativity has made production moot.

Contender: Texas A&M

Texas A&M (3-0) has the defense but do the Aggies have the offense to win a national title?

Zach Calzada has taken over at quarterback after Haynes King suffered an ankle injury in Week 2 at Colorado. Calzada seems to have two speeds with his arm . He ranks 111th nationally with a passer grade (minimum 20 snaps) of 60.8, according to Pro Football Focus. The passing offense has featured average to below average grades in each of the last two weeks, including the 34-0 victory against hapless New Mexico.

The Aggies, not Georgia or Clemson, have the nation's best scoring defense at 5.7 points per game but will it hold weight later the season? Texas A&M defeated Colorado 10-7 and the Buffaloes haven't scored in the last seven quarters, including a 30-0 shutout loss to Minnesota last week. Much more explosive offenses await after opening the season against Kent State, Colorado and New Mexico.

The Aggies face their toughest opponent yet this week in Arlington, Texas, where they'll meet nationally-ranked Arkansas. Calzada, who was sacked three times next week, needs to prove himself capable of delivering accurate passes and moving the offense when under pressure by the Razorbacks' defense.

Pretender: Notre Dame

Notre Dame (3-0) is undefeated but for how much longer? The Irish escaped Tallahassee with an overtime win against Florida State and has yet to look impressive on offense, with victories against Toledo (a comeback win in the final 69 seconds) and Purdue. The real test is this week against No. 18 Wisconsin, which is coming off a bye week, in Chicago.

The offensive line is struggling more than expected and the receivers are not helping Wisconsin transfer quarterback Jack Coan. They dropped six passes last week in the two-touchdown win against the Boilermakers.

Notre Dame is too inconsistent to be a championship player this fall.

Contender: Penn State

Penn State (3-0) might not have an electric passer in Sean Clifford or a great run-blocking offensive line, but it does have a solid pass rush and amazing coverage specialists.

If Clifford can just hit a few more explosive plays, the Nittany Lions would be a much easier pick to win the Big Ten with Ohio State taking a step back, particularly on defense, this fall. He had an incredible stat line in a 28-20 victory against Auburn (28 of 33 with two touchdowns against one interception) but he rarely was under pressure thanks to the stellar pass blocking in the trenches.

The Nittany Lion secondary has also been impressive, grading no lower than 73.3 in a game this season, according to PFF.

James Franklin has won seven straight games after starting the 2020 season with an 0-5 record, the worst start in school history. That's quite the turnaround by the Nittany Lions, but does he have what it takes to take the second-winningest program to never reach the playoff in the College Football Playoff era (63 wins since 2014) to a national semifinal?

Pretender: Iowa State

Iowa State (2-1) entered the season a dark horse, a player on the national stage, but that all ended with yet another loss to rival Iowa in Week 2 as Matt Campbell continued his 0-for streak against the Hawkeyes.

So, what's next for the best team in Iowa State history? The Big 12 is still up for grabs, of course, but competing for a national championship is all but dead heading into the middle part of the schedule. Purdy is still in the upper echelon of quarterbacks in the Power Five, ranking 10th with a passing grade of 84.3, according to PFF, but there are too many missing pieces for the Cyclones to be a national player.

The biggest culprit is the rushing offense, ranking in a tie for 90th nationally at 135.7 yards per game. Breece Hall, the nation's leading rusher during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, is averaging only 3.9 yards per carry.

Contender: Georgia

Georgia (3-0) has the defense to beat any team in the country. The offense is still a work in progress, but with Clemson's defense still playing lights-out after the season opener, it's clear the Bulldogs' offense is not in a dire situation after that low-scoring victory against the Tigers raised temporary red flags.

Keeping quarterback JT Daniels upright is paramount to Georgia being a championship team. The days of relying on game managers at quarterback are over. Daniels is an elite thrower capable of breaking a game open with a few passes downfield and in tight windows.

Georgia owns the nation's best defense with an overall grade of 91.3, according to Pro Football Focus. The Bulldogs have been especially impressive in pass coverage and haven't been getting enough credit for that. The front seven is, by far, the best in the country with Jordan Davis in the middle of that gigantic defensive line. Should the Bulldogs stay healthy, that might be the difference in the gigantic showdown with Florida in Jacksonville on Oct. 30.

"It’s been a good vibe on defense," Georgia coach Kirby Smart said. "Those guys have really done a tremendous job. This is a different group. This is a really athletic group. I don’t know that I’ve had an athletic front seven like this one. I’ve been much deeper in the secondary but I don’t know if I’ve had a group as athletic as this group that can move and twist. In today’s college football world, that gives you a chance because of all the spread stuff.”

Pretender: Miami

Miami (1-2) was the Jekyll and Hyde pick across college football in the offseason, and it didn't take long for the Hurricanes to show their true colors. The Hurricanes might be the biggest disappointment of the season, dropping two games in the first three weeks to cement their status as a non-player in the national title race.

Quarterback D'Eriq King is dealing with shoulder pain, which he played through while firing a school-record 59 passes in a 38-17 loss to Michigan State last week. Remember, the Hurricanes also had to sneak past Appalachian State in a 25-23 win in Week 2.

Contender: Ole Miss

Elite quarterbacks almost always trump great defenses in this era, and it appears Ole Miss (3-0) has its best quarterback since Eli Manning directed the offense.

Matt Corral broke a school record with seven touchdowns in a 61-point outburst through three quarters last week against Tulane. No one has slowed the Rebels on offense but much better defenses await them on the schedule, including Alabama and Texas A&M. What's scary for opponents is his passer rating has improved each week this season, jumping to an incredible 136.8 NFL rating with an adjusted completion percentage of 86.7 last week against the Green Wave.

The Rebels' defense is not as terrible as last season, when they were on pace to record one of the worst performances in FBS history before a late-season turnaround. They now have the nation's 51st-best defensive grade, according to Pro Football Focus, which is 43 spots higher than where they finished 2020. The Rebels are yielding 4.8 yards per play compared to 6.67 a year ago, though of course the sample size is still small.

We'll know soon enough whether Ole Miss will be in the playoff conversation at the end of the year. The trip to Tuscaloosa is Oct. 2, and if history is a guide, a loss would eliminate the Rebels from contention. Just ask Texas A&M, which lost only one game last season (a 52-24 blowout at Alabama) and missed the playoff field.

Pretender: North Carolina

North Carolina (2-1) is on the rise after a disappointing loss at Virginia Tech to open the season but it might not matter at the end of the season.

The two-point loss set the tone and the trajectory for the remainder of the season, dropping the program from the top 15 nationally while also prompting questions about quarterback Sam Howell's effectiveness behind a struggling offensive line. He looked out of sync with his receivers the opener and threw three interceptions.

Howell has since rebounded and was named the Maxwell Award Player of the Week following a five-touchdown performance in a 59-39 victory against Virginia last week. Tar Heels fans were ecstatic to see wideout Josh Downs go off for a 200-yard, two-touchdown performance vs. the Cavaliers.

Nothing less than winning out and blowing the doors off Clemson in the ACC Championship Game will suffice in the chase for a playoff spot but considering the weaknesses already exposed (and we warned about in this space in the offseason), it doesn't appear probable.

Contender: Oklahoma

Oklahoma (3-0) might not be as good as we thought but the Sooners have done enough to be considered a contender. The defense has done just enough to win tight games and the offense, while sporadic, is built on the incredible arm of Spencer Rattler and some of the best speed in the Big 12.

What makes the Sooners a bit of a boom-or-bust team this fall is its incredible success rate in the pass rush, which carries the nation's highest grade (91) heading into Week 4, according to Pro Football Focus. Is that sustainable throughout the season and what happens when they need to lean on the secondary, which ranks 65th in pass coverage, according to PFF's advanced analytics? Bad things could pop up down the line against the spread offenses in the country if the pass rush slips at any point.

The wide variety of receivers, along with the trustworthy hands and game-breaking ability of true freshman Mario Williams (three forced missed tackles after the catch against Nebraska last week), has the Sooners set up to have a breakout performance soon on offense.

Pretender: USC

USC (2-1) was blown out at home by Stanford, a team that was demolished by Kansas State in its season opener. USC athletics director Mike Bohn fired Clay Helton following the loss in Week 2, and now the Trojans' top two quarterbacks (veteran Kedon Slovis and freshman star Jaxson Dart) are battling injuries. One loss in the Pac-12 is a death sentence for playoff hopes and second loss is probably lurking elsewhere on the schedule.

Winningest Power Five programs to not reach playoff (since 2014)

68 wins: Wisconsin
63: Penn State
63: Oklahoma State
63: Iowa
61: Florida
60: TCU
60: Texas A&M
59: Utah
58: Auburn
58: USC
57: Michigan
55: Miami
52: Northwestern
50: Texas