Mar 7, 2024 10:40am PT

Final Oscar Predictions: Who Will Win and Should Win at the Academy Awards

Everett Collection / Variety

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:

OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS

Awards Circuit Column: (Updated March 5, 2024): As Frodo famously whispered to Samwise after casting the One Ring into the fiery abyss in the epic finale of “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King”: “It is done.”

The curtains have closed on final Oscar voting, and the air is thick with anticipation as the envelopes are primed to reveal the chosen ones in 23 categories. But first, let’s delve into what we already know.

Christopher Nolan’s blockbuster “Oppenheimer,” which recounts the saga of the father of the atomic bomb, is poised to sweep the night. Having clinched every major guild and industry accolade — Golden Globes, Critics Choice, DGA, BAFTA, SAG and PGA — it’s the first movie to have a “perfect season” since “Argo” (2012). The Universal Pictures biopic might match the record set by 1961’s “West Side Story,” which claimed a breathtaking 10 awards, the second most in history.

Locked and loaded are the supporting acting categories: Robert Downey Jr. (“Oppenheimer”) and Da’Vine Joy Randolph (“The Holdovers”) have stolen hearts with their captivating performances, and they lead the pack with critical acclaim and endearing speeches.

Yet, amid the certainty, the lead acting races offer a twist or two. The realm of lead actor has long been ruled by Cillian Murphy’s magnetic portrayal of the conflicted scientist in Nolan’s magnum opus. However, the final stretch of voting has seen two seasoned stalwarts — Paul Giamatti from “The Holdovers” and Jeffrey Wright from “American Fiction” — make formidable strides. Murphy maintains a firm grip, but the allure of a career actor getting his due might sway voters.

In best actress, the competition is as fierce as it gets. Emma Stone’s transformation into a woman with a child’s brain in Yorgos Lanthimos’ “Poor Things” has garnered substantial support. Yet Lily Gladstone’s groundbreaking win at the SAG Awards for her riveting performance in Martin Scorsese’s “Killers of the Flower Moon” may bring enough momentum to clinch victory in the heat of voting. Furthermore, Sandra Hüller’s ferocious turn in French legal thriller “Anatomy of a Fall” could split votes with Stone among international members, paving the way for Gladstone’s ascent.

Greta Gerwig’s “Barbie” drew a lukewarm reception at the guild awards, though it appears to be the frontrunner in the original song category, with the Grammy-winning “What Was I Made For?” positioned to claim the prize. But that could be it for 2023’s box office leader. The film does stand on the precipice in adapted screenplay and might snag a tech award or two, which could add further glitter to its night.

Based on the forecast, only two films are projected to win two or more stauettes: “Oppenheimer” with eight, and “Barbie” with two. This would be the first time of such an occurrence since “The English Patient” and “Fargo” (1997), which won nine and two respectively.

Variety’s final Oscar predictions are below.

The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10, 2024.

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.

*** = PREDICTED WINNER