Gavin Newsom is basically untouchable, California poll says

California Gov. Gavin Newsom is cruising to another four years in office, a new poll says.

Newsom, who first won his gubernatorial race by more than 20 percentage points in 2018, then defeated a 2021 recall attempt by a similar margin, is leading Republican state Sen. Brian Dahle 58% to 31% in a new Public Policy Institute of California poll released Wednesday.

The vote breakdown by political party strongly suggests Newsom's lead is insurmountable. Newsom is leading independent voters 55% to 35%, which is very bad news for Dahle. Furthermore, Newsom has the support of 90% of California Democrats, and in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans 2-1, that's a death knell for his opponent. No non-Democrat is going to win statewide office without garnering significant support from Democratic voters. Dahle also has support from only 81% of California Republicans, meaning Newsom is doing a better job of consolidating his party's voters than Dahle is.

Newsom's approval rating is down slightly from May (it dropped from 53% to 52%), but that figure has been remarkably stable in PPIC polls conducted since the start of 2021. In the past two years of PPIC polls, his approval rating has always been somewhere between 52% and 56%.

The PPIC poll, conducted among 1,705 residents between Sept. 2 and Sept. 11, also surveyed three of the state's biggest ballot measures. It found that "yes" on Proposition 1, the measure that amends the state constitution to include a right to abortion, is leading "no" 69% to 25%, and Proposition 27, the measure that would legalize online sports betting is likely fail, with "no" leading "yes" 54% to 34%. The pollster did not ask respondents about Proposition 26, the measure that would legalize in-person sports gambling at race tracks and casinos owned by Native American tribes.

Finally, the PPIC found that "yes" on Proposition 30, a tax increase on high-income earners that would pay for more electric vehicles, is leading "no" 55% to 40%. Earlier this week, Newsom made news when he appeared in ad urging residents to vote "no" on the measure, placing him at odds with the California Democratic Party and several environmental groups.

Newsom argues that the measure is a "Trojan horse" and "cynical scheme" from ride-hailing app Lyft "to grab a huge taxpayer-funded subsidy." Lyft faces a state requirement to have most of its fleet comprised of electric vehicles by 2030.

The "no" campaign has internal polling showing that opposition rises when voters are informed of Newsom's stance, so if the governor's ads are able to turn the tide against Prop. 30 between now and Election Day, it would further speak to his untouchable status in the state.