Donald Trump won in North Carolina.

One thing to keep in mind as we've seen Biden's polling numbers vanish in states like Florida and North Carolina: His leads were much larger in Michigan and Wisconsin, and a bit larger in Pennsylvania. So he has a little cushion there to work with.

Alex's sources are likely right, and it's going to be a long wait. Now that California is in Biden's column, he's at 209 electoral votes, to Trump's 119. Let's assume Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas are going to Trump. Give him Hawaii, Biden needs to find 58 electoral votes somewhere — some combination of Minnesota (10), Arizona (11), Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10), Pennsylvania (20), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), Maine (3), ME-02 (1), NE-02 (1), Georgia (16). He can lose Georgia, but then he needs to win EVERYTHING ELSE if he also lost Pennsylvania.

Hearing more and more pessimism from NC Democrats that Biden will not be able to catch up there. Trump won NC by 3.6 points in 2016, so it'll obviously be far closer in 2020, but like I said, more pessimism that Biden won't catch up. (Again, usual caveats, it's not been called yet!)

Charlie Very nervous Dems in NC tell me that they're watching Wake, Mecklenburg, Durham extremely closely. Still about 10-15 percent outstanding in those three counties. But, like you said, this is going to be a nail-biter.

With 84% in, North Carolina is looking like a nailbiter. Biden leads Donald Trump 49.7 to 49.1. Both candidates have already surpassed 2016 vote totals

Yep, Charlie, Trump appears to have held on to and built support among Lumbee Indians and those non-college voters in that county. This is a red-leaning county, but any places where he can improve on his 2016 numbers will be important to hold off losses in suburban counties.

to Elena’s point, lot of vote still outstanding in NC and a lot of it could be overwhelmingly for Trump. Few Democrats I've talked with are feeling super confident about the state right now.

Elena Trump appears to be running much stronger than in 2016 in Robeson County, home to the Lumbee Indians and a county that twice voted for Obama before flipping to Trump.

Yep! But what about how Trump might make up some margins in other rural counties in NC? Still trying to do some fast math to do some comparisons here.

Jumping in to add some color from NC: From NC state Rep. Graig Meyer: "It's way closer than we thought it would be. Trump running strong in the mountains. His turnout is high." He noted that he's still watching Wake, Mecklenburg and Durham county come in more fully. (Still 15-20 percent outstanding in those three states.) But it's going to be very, very close in NC.

We're still waiting on a lot of rural counties in NC, but Dems should take some hope from driving up turnout in both Wake and Meck counties in NC.

Natasha North Carolina was the only swing state that Mitt Romney won in 2012, after Barack Obama won it in 2008. Donald Trump did even better than Romney in 2016, and he’s been focused pretty heavily on it with his rallies this fall. A Joe Biden win in Florida could have been a knockout, but if he takes North Carolina, it’s no small deal. 

Natasha Mecklenberg County (Charlotte), another key county for Biden, is also producing a solid result for him. To have any chance of flipping NC from Trump, Biden had to run better than Clinton in Mecklenberg and Wake counties, the two most populous in the state. He's doing that. But a few other things have to happen as well. It's not quite clear to me how well Trump is doing in the exurbs and rural areas.

Biden -- and Dems -- have been far more bullish about NC than FL

Looking at the NC results, Biden is crushing it in one of the two most important counties -- affluent and educated Wake County. To win the state, Biden had run better than Clinton in Wake County and he's on a trajectory to do so

For example, Holly, one example from Jen O’Malley Dillon, Biden’s campaign manager, that implied they were still counting on Pa could be seen in this quote. “If we just win one state between North Carolina and Georgia, then we could lose Michigan and Florida and still get over 270 electoral votes.”

Holly If Biden loses Fla, North Carolina and Georgia, his so-called greater Midwest certainly includes winning Pennsylvania. That’s a point that they made. Losing Pa would seem to require picking up something big elsewhere.

GOP strategist just made this point to me: If Florida goes red in 2020, while Georgia, NC, Texas are seen as more/just as competitive for Dems, it could totally change Florida's role in presidential politics. It's big, expensive and complicated, so what if Dems stop challenging it and focus on other SEC-type states?

Charlie I think the rural vs. the cities and burbs will tell the tale of the South tonight. North Carolina also comes to mind: Increasingly liberal cities and surrounding 'burbs, again with lots of outsiders and immigrant populations.

Good evening from the great Midwest. I’m just dying to know whether Team Biden can flip one of the tougher states on their map like AZ, NC or GA. The Biden campaign seems least confident about Florida but seemed to feel pretty good about reclaiming the Blue Wall. I’m also keeping an eye on Wisconsin, a battleground close to my heart (and to my home). Democrats there are feeling good because they ran up such a strong lead in early voting.

Hi everyone from D.C.! I'm watching to see what happens in Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin and the Upper Midwest states which seems to be the most crucial for a potential Trump victory given the recent polling and his path to winning in 2016....I'm also watching to see what emerges as the chief issue for voters: the economy (which historically has favored Trump), or his administration's handling of Covid (where he has been far weaker in the polls). And then, like Anita, I am watching to see how POTUS reacts. If we do not know the outcome of the election tonight, is he cool, or does he try to claim victory regardless?

Happy Election Day! No surprise, I'm watching the battle for Senate control. Republicans go into the night with a 53-47 majority. There are a huge number of potentially competitive races. The likeliest flip for Republicans is Alabama. The likeliest flips for Democrats are Colorado and Arizona, followed by tight races in Maine, North Carolina and Iowa. If Democrats can flip two of those three, they'll likely win back the majority six years after losing it. There are also races in Montana, South Carolina, Kansas, Alaska and Texas that could flip if Democrats are having a REALLY good night. And if Republicans are having a really strong night, Michigan is their next best opportunity. The possibilities are a little dizzying.

But one thing to keep a close eye on: Georgia. Two races in that state, and one is almost certain to head to a January 5 runoff, while the other is going to be extremely close and could potentially also go to a runoff. So the majority could be won tonight. Or... it could be won in January.

Hey, all! Reporting live from my couch, which is where I’ve been since … Super Tuesday. (Remember Super Tuesday?) To your question, Charlie, is ‘everything’ too broad of an answer? Ok, fine, I’ll specify slightly more. I got to cover the 2018 House midterms, and the themes for that election (suburban flight from GOP, deeper party polarization in suburban/urban vs. rural/exurban, gender gap between the two parties) are now, likely, to come into fuller view. For that reason, I’m keeping a close eye on the Sunbelt, especially Georgia and NC, for signs of what started in 2018 is now extending into 2020.

Two counties where we might be able to see that these trends converge are: Gwinnett County in Georgia and Wilson County, NC. Starting with Gwinnett, this northern Atlanta suburban county used to be solidly Republican territory. Now, it’s one of those quintessential 2020 examples of a place that’s booming, diversifying and turning away from Trump. If Democrats can run up a big, big score here, that’s how Biden manages to pull off a victory in Georgia, a state that hasn’t voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1992.

Wilson County, a suburban/exurban county in eastern NC, voted for Clinton in 2016, but barely. This is a spot where if Republicans can dig up some new non-college educated white voters, they might show up here. The Trump campaign recognized that – sending VP Mike Pence here last week to rally support. If Republicans can flip this county, that’s a very good sign that they’ll be able to hold on to NC.