If the San Francisco Giants have any postseason aspirations, they need to get going, and they need to get going in a hurry. The Giants trail the Dodgers by 12.5 games in the division, and they’re currently a half-game out of a possible wild card spot.
However, San Francisco has been up to the task when facing its rivals, as it won three of the five meetings against Los Angeles this season.
On Thursday, the two teams will meet again in Los Angeles for a four-game series. Carlos Rodón will get the start for San Francisco, while Los Angeles will counter with Mitch White.
Even with the Dodgers’ vaunted lineup, the Giants should have the edge in this pitching matchup. We’ll break down the numbers and explain why the Giants have value as road underdogs.
Giants vs. Dodgers MLB odds
Odds provided by BetMGM
Moneyline: SFG (+125) vs. LAD (-150)
Spread: SFG +1.5 (-160) vs. LAD -1.5 (+135)
Total: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)
Giants vs. Dodgers probable pitchers
Carlos Rodón (2.66) vs. Mitch White (4.20)
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Giants vs. Dodgers prediction
Both teams come into this series on a winning streak, with the Dodgers winning four straight games and the Giants winning three. However, given the Dodgers’ ten-game lead over the second-place Padres, it wouldn’t surprise me if they’re a bit fat and happy coming out of the All-Star break.
If not for injuries to the Dodgers’ pitching staff, White wouldn’t be anywhere near the starting rotation. His lone victory is the fewest among Dodgers’ pitchers, with at least five starts on the year.
Through eight starts and 13 appearances, White is 1-2 with a 4.20 ERA. His advanced metrics suggest his numbers are right around where they should be, given his 4.24 FIP.
While he’s yet to register a start against the visitors, the Giants lineup does have five plate appearances against him. In those meetings, Giants hitters have a .375 xBA, .388 xWOBA, and a .537 xSLG.
As for Rodón, he’s followed up the 2021 season with another brilliant campaign. Through 18 starts, the left-hander is 8-5 with a 2.66 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. And if we look at his 2.14 FIP, Rodón has arguably pitched even better than his traditional ERA might suggest.
Rodón also has tremendous head-to-head numbers against the Dodgers. In 78 plate appearances, the Dodgers lineup is hitting just .113 with a .167 wOBA. Even their predictive numbers are less than flattering, as evidenced by a .191 xBA, .235 xWOBA, and a .254 xSLG.
Los Angeles is also slightly weaker against lefties compared to righties. The Dodgers have a .249/.327/.414 line against left-handers vs. a .257/.336/.447 split when facing a right-hander. Yet, as minuscule as it may be, opposing teams must cling to any edge possible against the National League-leading Dodgers.
The Giants have performed admirably as underdogs with odds at +125 or higher this season.
Our Action Labs database shows that the Giants are 5-3 for 4.58 units in this spot. And with the better pitcher on the mound, I think the value lies with the road underdogs.
However, be sure to shop around for the best price, as some books tend to hang a higher number on the Dodgers based on their profile as a public team.
Giants vs. Dodgers pick
Giants ML +110 (Caesars Sportsbook)