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TECHNOLOGICAL TRENDS 

AND 

NATIONAL POLICY 



JUNE 1937 

NATIONAL RESbURCES COMMITTEE 



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From the collection of the 



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Prelinger 



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V JJibrary 



San Francisco, California 
2008 



TECHNOLOGICAL TRENDS 

AND 

NATIONAL POLICY 

INCLUDING THE SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS 
OF NEW INVENTIONS 



JUNE 1937 



REPORT OF THE 

SUBCOMMITTEE ON TECHNOLOGY 

TO THE 

NATIONAL RESOURCES COMMITTEE 



UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1937 



For sale by the 

Superintendent of Documents, Washington, D. C. 

Price SI. 00 (Paper cover) 



H. Con. Res. 21 



CONCUKKKNT KESOI.UTION 

Resolved by the House of Representatives {the Senate concurring). 
That tlic Kt'port of the Subcommittee on Technology, submitted to the 
National Resources Committee, entitled "Technological Trends and Na- 
tional Policy, Including the Social Imi)licati<)ns of the New Inventions"', 
be printed as a House document; and that ten thousand additional copies 
shall te printed, of which two thousand nine hundred copies shall be for 
the use of the Senate and seven thousand one hundred copies shall be for 
tlie use of the House. 

Passed the House of Representatives duly 'i'i, l!»;i7. 

Attest : 

South Titr.MiiLK. Clerk. 

In the Senate of the Unitcil Slates. June 'I'l (calendar liay August ('))•» 
1937. 

Resolved, '\\\i\i the Senate agree to the foregoing Couciuierit Resolu- 
tion of the House of Representatives. 

Attest : 

E. A. Halsey, Secretary. 



National RESOimcES Committee 

INTEKIOB Building 

Washington 



June 18. 1937. 

The President, 

The White House, 

Washington, D. C. 

My Dear Mr. Presidext: , . , 

We have the honor to trans,nit herewith a report on Technolog al 
Trends and Their Social luiplieations. Our Science Comnuttee, includ- 
^ S.Xrs designated by the National Acad.ny "^ Scien... d.e^Soc.d 
since Research Council, and the American Council on I ducn_Uonh^^ 
prepared, through a special subconnnittee headed by Di. ^\illiam F. 
Ogburn, the materials ^^■hich comprise this report. 

This do.-ument is the first major attempt to show the kinds of ne^^ 
inventions which may alTect living and working conditions m Ainer ca n 
thr eT 10 to 25 years. It indicates some of the problems which the 
adoSn and use of these inventions will inevitably bring in their trail. 
I filasizes the importance of national ellbrts to bring aboiU promp 
adi" tent to these changing situations, with the least possible social 
suEng and loss, and sketches some of the lines of national policy 

directed to this end. 

Sincerely yours, 

Hakold L. Ickes 
fiecretani ol the Interior, Chairman 

-'"jijr:»i.. "T.^/?^; "• 

Henry A. Wallace, Fbedeuic A. Delano. 

Secretary of Agriculture. Charles E. JIebriam. 
Daniel C. Roper, • 

Secretary of Commerce. ^^^^^_ ^ dennison. 

FRANCES PERKINS RkARDSLEY RUML. 

Secretary of Lahot. 



NATIONAL RESOURCES COMMITTEE 



Frederic A. Dei^\no 

Vice Chairman 

Daniel C. RorER 
Secretary of Commerce 



Charles E. MERRiAjr 



IIakiild L. Ickes, Chairman 
Secretary of the Interior 

HaRRT H. WOODRING 

Secretary of ^Var 

Haret L. Hopkins 
Works Progress Administrator 

Charles E. JIerriam 

ADVISORY COMMITTEE 

Frederic A. Delano, Chairman 
Henry ^^. Dexxisox 



Henry A. Wallace 

Secretary of Agriculture 

Frances Perkins 
Secretary of Labor 



Be-vkdsley Ruml 



STAFF 



CuAiti.ES A\'. Kliot, 2d 
Executive Officer 



Harold ^Ieukill 
Assistant Executive Officer 



Frank Lillie 
E. B. Wilson 
J. C. Merriam 



J. C. Mekkiam 



SCIENCE COMMITTEE 

E. C. Elliott 

C. H. Judd 

W. D. Cocking 

SUBCOMIMITTEE OX TECHNOLOGY 

W. V. Ogbcrx", Chairman 



W. F. 0(;burn 
H. a. Miilis 
Carter Goodrich 



E. C. Elliott 



ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 

This report on Technological Trends and National Policy was instituted through the eli'orts of 
the Science Conunittee of the National Resources Committee. The Science Committee is composed 
of nine members, three each designated respectively by the National Academy of Sciences, Social 
Science Research Council, and the National Council of Education. The subcommittee on technology 
was constituted, consisting of William F. Ogburn, chairman, John Merriam, and Edward C. Elliott. 
This Committee appointed William F. Ogburn as director of reseanli for the repori. He was 
assisted by S. McKee Rosen. 

The report could not have been prepared witlioiit the assistance of various universities, labora- 
tories, and governmental bureaus. Acknowledgment and appreciation is due especially to the United 
States Department of Agriculture, United Stales Department of Commerce, United States Bureau of 
Mines, United States Government Printing Office, Federal Communications Conuuission, Federal 
Power Commission, Columbia University, the University of Chicago. Yale University, and Purdue 
University in making it possible for the contributors to aid in the preparation of the special reports in 
the volume. These various contributors have in turn been able to present their reports only with the 
cooperation of various individuals and institutions. Appreciation for these services is expressed in 
connection with the separulc r("|K)rts. 

VI 



TECHNOLOGICAL TRENDS AND THEIR SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS 



Contents 

Page 

Foreword \t 1 1 

Part One — Social Aspects of Technology 

Section I.^-National Policy and Technology 3 

Section II. — The Prediction of Inventions 15 

Section III. — Social Effects of Inventions 24 

Section IV. — Resistances to the Adoption of Technological In novations ' 39 

Section V. — Unemployment and Increasing Pioductivity 67 

Part Two — Science and Technology 

Section I. — Tlie Relation of Science to Technological Trends 91 

Section II. — The InttM-dependcTicc of Science and Technolog;v 93 

Part Three — Technology in Various Fields 

Section I. — Agricnltnre' 97 

Section II. — The Mineral Industries 145 

Section III. — Transportation 177 

Section IV. — Conniuuiication 210 

Section V. — Power 249 

Section VI. — The Chemical Indnstries 289 

Section VII. — The Electrical Goods Industries 315 

Section VIII. — Metallurgy 329 

Section IX. — Tlio Construction Industries 367 



NATIONAL RESOURCES COMMITTEE 



FOREWORD 

By the Science Committee 



Anticipation of the future is tlie key to adequate 
planning for the best use of our national resources. 
It is, however, more difficult to look forward without 
the aid of precise instruments, than it is to look back- 
ward, with the aid of memory and records. Though 
this report attempts to deal with the future, it is 
fully realized that the future grows out of the past 
and hence that past trends must be studied to 
determine future trends. 

Planning is usually carried on in relation to a spe- 
cific task, for a definite time, in a limited territory; 
but changes coming from without these limits may 
upset the best laid programs. Tluis the chemical in- 
ventions making substitutes of wool and cotton from 
cellulose, gasoline from coal, and rubber from coal 
and chalk, may affect cotton, coal, and timber produc- 
tion, and no doubt policies in regard to other natural 
resources. So closely interrelated is the mechanism of 
modern civilization that a change occurring in one 
part, say in industry, will produce an effect in a quite 
different and unexpected part, as for instance, in the 
schools, or the use of natural I'esources. Hence we 
need a view of the general causes, types, and trends 
over a broad front, since any specific program may be 
affected by forces origiiuiting elsewhere. 

Invention is a great disturber and it is fair to say 
that the greatest general cause of change in our mod- 
ern civilization is invention; although it is recognized 
that social forces in turn encourage or discourage 
inventions. Certainly developments in technology 
cause a vast number of changes in a great variety of 
fields. A banker once defined invention as that which 
makes his securities insecure. Hence a study of the 
trends of inventions furnishes a broad perspective of 
many great movements of change and basic general 
information for auy ])lanuiug body, however, general 
or specific their plans may be. 

The Nature of the Report 

This report presents a survey of most of tlie great 
fields of technology and applied science, namely, agri- 
culture, mining, transportation, communication, the 
construction industries, power production, the metal- 
lurgical and chemical industries, and the electrical 
mamifactures. Chapters on these subjects comprise 
part III of the report. The purpose is to cover a wide 
range; for the specialization so necessary for progress 
needs to be accompanied by broader vision. It was 
possible to obtain this wider perspective by dealing 
only witli the more significant inventions. Since in- 



ventions were selected for this report on the basis of 
their social significance, omissions are important as 
truly as inclusions, especially as the surveys were 
conducted by competent authorities in the different 
fields. 

It has been thought best to focus on the near future, 
which is defined as the next 20 years; but any blinders 
that cut off sharply the present, the more distant fu- 
ture, or even the recent past, would mean an inadequate 
investigation, since change is a process. 

Most planning is not concerned with invention as 
such; but with the effects of inventions. These social 
effects come only after widespread use, which luay 
follow long after the patent has been granted. Thus, 
telephoning for considerable distances has been possible 
for some time; but it is onlj" in the future tluit the 
volume of long distance telephoning will be suffi- 
ciently large to have much effect on the relationship 
of location of residence to location of business, or 
upon the growth of suburb and village. Some inven- 
tions that are already highly developed today are re- 
j)()rted in the pages that follow since the influences 
they precipitate will be occurring in the near futui'e. 
Still more recent inventions will also have iufluences 
in the immediate future. The air conditioning de- 
velopments which lower inside temperatures during 
hot weather may or may not within the next genera- 
tion affect southern cities and stimulate the growth 
of factories in warmer regions. Or again, tray agri- 
culture, which produces a high yield ])er ])lant when 
the roots are suspended in a tray of licjuid ciiemicals 
instead of in the soil, may or may not be used suffi- 
ciently to be of much social significance within the 
reader's lifetime. The particular social influences 
which the inventions here surveyed may have are 
indicated in many cases by the authors of the chapters 
in the third part of the report. 

Part I of the report is devoted to the social aspects 
of teclmology and its relationship to planning in a 
series of selected topics of special imjjortauce, sucli 
as technological change and unemployment or resist- 
ances to the adoption of inventions. Tliroughout the 
report, then, there will be found discussions of the 
effects of inventions on society, although the many 
different effects are difficult to foresee. In the case 
of the airplane, for example, few persons even at the 
time of the World War foresaw the present influences 
of the bomber on international relations. There is as 
yet no science capable of predicting the social effects 
of inventions and decades will be required for such 



Foreword 



IX 



a development. Until that time each planninjT unit 
of jjovernnient or industi-y will try to [)rcdict the 
future by drawing its own conclusions as to possible 
influences of inventions, known and foreseeable. 

Findings 

1. The largo number of inventions made every year 
shows no tendency to diminish. On the contrary the 
trend is toward further increases. No cessation of 
social changes due to invention is to be expected. It 
is cust(nnary to speak of the present age as one of 
great change, as though it were a turbulent transition 
period between two plateaus of calm, but such a con- 
clusion is illusory. Though the rate of change may 
vary in the future there is no evidence whatever of 
a changeless ])eace ahead. 

2. Although technological unemployment is one of 
the most tragic effects of the sudden adoption of 
many new inventions (which may be likened to an 
immigration of iron men), inventions create jobs as 
well as take them away. While some technological 
changes have resulted in the complete elimination of 
occupations and even entire industries, the same or 
other changes have called into being new occupations, 
services, and industries. 

3. No satisfactory measures of the volume of tech- 
nological unemployment have as yet been developed, 
but at least part of the price for this constant change 
in the employment requirements of industry is paid 
by labor since many of the new machines and tech- 
niques result in "occupational obsolescence." The 
growth and decay of industries and occupations 
caused by technological progress necessitate continu- 
ous and widespread — and not always successful — re- 
adjustments and adaptations on the part of workers 
whose jobs are affected by these changes. 

4. The question whether there will be a large amount 
of unemployment during the next period of business 
pi'osperity rests only in part on the introduction of 
new inventions and more efficient industrial tech- 
niques. The other important elements are changes in 
the composition of the country's production (such as 
appreciable changes in the proportion which service 
activities constitute of the total), the gi'owth of pop- 
idation, changes in the demands for goods and serv- 
ices, shift in markets, migration of industry, hiring 
age policies of industries, and other factors dis- 
cussed in the body of the report.^ For instance, even 
if industrial techniques remained the same, the vol- 
ume of production would have to be gi'eater in the 
future than in 1929 in order to absorb the increase in 
the working population and keep unemployment to 
the level of that date. If the productivity of 1935 

^ See pt. I, sec. 5. 
8778° — 37 :; 



(the latest year for which figures are available) con- 
tinues the same in 1937, and the composition of the 
nation's total product remains unchanged, produc- 
tion would have to be increased 20 percent over that 
of 1929 to have as little unemployment as existed then. 
Failing this there will be more unemployment and if 
labor efficiency is increased by new inventions or 
otherwise, then the jiroduction of physical goods and 
ser\dces must be more than 120 percent of what it 
was in 1929. 

5. Aside from jobs, subtracted or added, new in- 
ventions affect all the great social institutions; family, 
church, local community. State, and industry. The 
Committee finds that in all the fields of technology 
and applied science which were investigated there 
are many new inventions that will have important 
influences upon society and hence upon all planning 
problems. Particularly impressive were new inven- 
tions in agriculture, communication, aviation, metal- 
lurgy, chemistry, and electrical tools and api)liaucis. 

6. A large and increasing part of industrial devel- 
opment and of the correlated technological advances 
arises out of science and research. Invention is com- 
monly an intermediate step between science and tech- 
nological application, but this does not make less im- 
portant the i^oint that the basic ideas upon which 
these programs are developed come out of scientific 
discovery or creative activity. 

7. Advance of many aspects of industry and the 
correlated technologies is dependent upon scientific 
research and discovery. This fact is made clear by 
the increasing importance of research laboratories in 
the great industries. The research conducted is not 
only well organized but it is carried forward with the 
cooperation of investigators having high rank in the 
field of science. If the contribution of research were 
to be reduced, the industries would tend to freeze 
in a particular pattern. 

8. Though the influence of invention may be so 
great as to be immeasurable, as in the case of gun- 
powder or the printing press, there is usually oppor- 
tunity to anticipate its impact upon society since it 
never comes instantaneously taithout signals. For in- 
vention is a process and there are faint beginnings, 
development, diffusion, and social influences, occur- 
ring in sequence, all of which require tune. From the 
early origins of an invention to its social effects the 
time interval averages about 30 years. 

9. "Wliile a serious obstacle to considering invention 
in planning is lack of precise knowledge, this is not 
irremediable nor the most difficult fact to overcome. 
Other equally serious obstacles are inertia of peoples, 
pi-ejudice, lack of unity of purpose, and the difficulties 
of concerted action. 



Foreword 



10. Among the resistances to the adoption of new 
inventions and hence to the spread of tlie advantages 
of technological j)rogress there is si)eciiilly noted those 
resistances arising in connection with scrapping equip- 
ment in order to install the new. Better accounting 
methods and greater appreciation of the rate of in- 
ventional ilevelopnient facilitate the spread of im- 
proved capital goods. The rate of capital obsolescence 
is especially a major problem under monopolistic con- 
ditions, which probably favor the adoption of tech- 
nological improvements less than do conditions of 
keen competition. 

11. The time lag between the first development and 
the full use of an invention is ofter a period of grave 
social and economic maladjustment, as, for example, 
the delay in the adoption of workmen's compensation 
and the institution of "safety first" campaigns after the 
introduction of rapidly moving steel machines. This 
lag emphasized the necessity of planning in regard to 
inventions. 

Kecommendations 

1. The reports herewith presented reveal the im- 
minence of a few very important inventions that may 
soon be widely used with resultant social influences of 
significance. Since these inventions may deeply affect 
planning it is recommended that a series of studies be 
untlertaken by the planning agencies herein recom- 
mended or by existing planning boards, with the aid 
of such natural and social scientists as may be needed, 
on the following inventions: the mechanical cotton 
picker, air conditioning equipment, plastics, the photo- 
electric cell, artificial cotton and wooienlike fibres made 
from cellulose, synthetic rubber, prefabricated houses, 
television, facsimile transmission, the automobile 
trailer, gasoline produced from coal, steep-flight air- 
craft jilanes, and tray agriculture. 

2. A special case of the influence of invention is 
technological unemployment. It is recommended that 
a joint committee be formed from the Department of 
Laboi-, the Department of Commerce, the Department 
of Agriculture, Bureau of Mines, Interstate Commerce 
Commission, Social Security Board, and the Works 
Progress Administration with such other cooperation 
as may be needed, for the purposes of keeping abreast 
with technological developments ami asceitaining and 
noting the occupations and industries which are likely 
to be affected by innninent technological changes and 
the extent to which these inventions are likely to result 
in unemployment. It is recommended that such in- 
formation be made available through the appropriate 
tlepartments to the industry and laboi- likely to be 
affected. 

3. In view of the findings regarding the importance 
of technolog}- and api)lied science, it is recommended 



that the Federal govei'nment develop apDropriate 
agencies for continuous study of them; and more spe- 
cifically that there be set up in the respective depart- 
ments science committees with the definite function 
of investigating and reporting at regular periods on the 
progress and trends of science and invention and the 
possible and economic efTecls flowing therefrom as they 
affect the work of the departments and of the agencies 
to whom they render service. Copies of such reports 
should be supplied to the National Resources Board 
and it is recommended that insofar as is feasible they 
be made available to the various city, county, and State 
planning boards, and to the public. 

4. Since the patent laws have considerable influence 
on the rate of technological progress, it is recom- 
mended that the whole system be reviewed by a group 
of social scientists and economists. This review, un- 
like others dealing with specific reforms, technical 
operations, scientific aspects, or ethical implications 
should be concerned with the articulation of the pat- 
enting process with the fundamental processes of 
human progress and the types of economic systems. 
From such basic relationships the better adaptation of 
the system to changing conditions can be worked out 
in the necessary detail. 

5. It is reconnnended that the Science Committee of 
the National Resources Committee, with the coopera- 
tion of other scientists that may be needed, make an 
investigation of the adequacy c)f the reporting of in- 
ventions and of discoveries in applied science and 
advise on the feasibility (a) of more balanced cover- 
age, (?>) of selecting those more socially significant, 
and (c) of assembling of such data in some central 
location or locations. 

G. The most important general conclusion to be 
drawn from these studies is the contimiing growth 
of the already high and rapidly developing technol- 
ogy in the social structure of the Nation, and hence 
the hazard of any planning that does not take this 
fact into consideration. This pervasive interrelation- 
ship so clearly manifest throughout the pages of this 
report points to one great need, namely, a permanent 
over-all planning board. Such a board is needed to 
give breadth of consideration to the variety of factors 
which affect specific plans. This board would take its 
place in the governmental pattern as coordinator for 
the many special planning boards, of which thei-e are 
now 47 State boards, 400 county boards, and 1,100 city 
boards. The Technology Committee, therefore, makes 
to the National Resources Committee, as a major rec- 
ommendiition of this report, the creation of a Na- 
tional Resources Board, as reconnnended In" the I'resi- 
dent's Committee on Administrative Management in 
their report of January 8, 1937. 



PART ONE 
SOCIAL ASPECTS OF TECHNOLOGY 



Contents 

Page 

Section I. National Policy and Technology 3 

Ry \\'illi;im F. Ogburn 
Section II. The Prediction of Inventions 15 

By S. C. Gilfillan 

Section III. Social Effects of Inventions • 24 

H.v S. C. Gilfillan 
Section IV. Resistances to the Adoption of Technolooical liinovations 39 

By Bernhard J. Stern 
Section V. Unemployment and Increasing Productivitj- 67 

By David Weintraub 



I. NATIONAL POLICY AND TECHNOLOGY 

By William F. Ogburn ' 



When conditions arc changing i-apidly, policies for 
national welfare are especially in need of guiding 
principles. To this end, knowledge of probable tech- 
nological trends is, in modern times, of very great 
help. This idea which is the subject of this section 
of the report of the National Resources Committee 
may bo set forth briefly in a paragraph. 

In an age of great change, anticipation of what 
will probably happen is a necessity for the executives 
at the helm of the ship of state. A study of invention 
offers a very good clue to future social conditions and 
problems of a nation. For, of four material factors 
that determine the economic well-being of nations, to 
wit, invention, population, natural resources, and 
economic organization, the first changes the most fre- 
quently in the modern world and hence is most often 
a cause. Thus, there ai'e 50,000 jiatents a year and 
some of them have great influence. For instance, the 
airplane \\ill change the nature of national defense 
in case of war. In this case the growth of the air- 
plane precedes the development of national defense. 
This sequence is common. The scientific achievement 
comes first and the social effects later. The fact that 
there is a lag makes invention a social barometer. 
The production curve of automobiles forecasts the 
growth of suburbs. Furthermore, since it requires a 
quarter of a century more or less for an invention to- 
be perfected and to be put into wide use, it is possible 
to anticipate their results some years ahead. Whether 
the social effects of inventions can in practice be read 
off this barometer with sureness is doubtful in the 
present stage of the advancement of social science. 
But that inventions are an indicator seems clear 
thougii it may require special education so to use them. 
The usefulness of scientific discovery as a guide for 
national policy is also strengthened because of (a) 
the great variety of inventions and (b) the number 
of points of contact between a modern government 
and tlie affairs of its citizens. It follows, then, that 
whether plans are made and executed or not, trying 
to anticipate is an endeavor of iirime importance, 
unless drifting is to be the course. 

These conclusions were at the basis of the i-ecom- 
mendations of the President's Research Committee on 
Social Trends appointed by President Hoover in the 
autumn of 1929 and which reported their findings 3 
years later in tlieir i-eport. Recent Social Trends. In 



' Professor of Sociology, University of Chicago. 



discussing the vast complexity of problems that con- 
front our Nation, tliat connnittee found "* * * that 
the clue to their understanding as well as the hope 
for improvement lies in the fact of social change. 
Not all parts of our organization are changing at the 
same speed, or at the same time. Some are rapidly 
moving forward and others arc lagging. These un- 
equal rates of change in economic life, in government, 
in education, in science and religion make zones of 
danger and points of tension * * *_ Scientific dis- 
coveries and inventions instigate changes first in the 
economic organization and social habits which are 
most closely associated with them * * *. The next 
set of changes occurs in organizations one step further 
removed, namely, in institutions such as the family, 
the govermnent, the schools, and the churches. Some- 
what later as a rule come changes in social philos- 
ophies and codes of behavior * * *." 

Thus the analysis in the Committee's report, which 
is here quoted because of its significance for national 
policies, was based upon a recognized lack of balance 
in civilization occasioned by unequal rates of change 
in the different parts of the social organism, begin- 
ning in point of time with mechanical invention and 
scientific discovery. Thus invention and discovery 
become guides to future changes, though, of course, 
not the only ones; nor are they infallible. 

This report of the National Resources Committee 
then begins where the President's Committee on 
Social Trends left off. The de\elopment proceeds 
from this jioint in the sections wliich follow. 

Great Inventions and Progress 
in the Twentieth Century 

The significance of technology for economic and 
social life may be shown by considering certain de- 
velopments of the twentieth century. Only 35 years 
have elapsed since the beginning of the century, dur- 
ing which time the Nation has exiJerienced a phase of 
unparalleled development. Most of the Members of 
the present Congress liad at that time finished school 
and college, and were already launched on the career 
that was to place them among the policy-makers of 
the Nation. It would have been enlightening for 
them to have looked ahead tlien at the probable course 
of technology. A scanning of the technological hori- 
zon,.at that time would have revealed the beginnings 
of several of our largest industries, based upon inven- 
tions then relatively new. 

3 



4 



National Resources Committee 



For instance, there were not many telephones in 
use in 1900. around a million in number. Yet the 
telephone industry was destined to grow into the 
third largest public utility in the United States, with 
an investment of nearly $r),000,000,()00 and giving 
employment to hundreds of thousands. Its influence 
has been far reaching. It broke the isolation of the 
farms, increased the number of business transactions, 
and speeded the tempo of modern life. Its im- 
portance to special industries, such as newspapers, 
has been of inestimable value. It has tended to break 
down State lines, to eradicate regional differences, 
and to increase international contacts. It has been of 
aid in safety, in transportation, in fighting fires, and 
crime. 

The automobile was just coming into use in 1900, as 
is illustrated by the newspaper comments of the time 
commending Theodore Roosevelt for his "charac- 
teristic courage", when he rode in an automobile. 
Thirty-five years later there is one automobile to 
every five persons in the United States. The auto- 
mobile has had a profound effect on cities. Just as 
the railroads caused cities to spring up all over the 
country, so the automobile is changing them, hurling 
their po])uIation with a centrifugal force outward 
into the suburbs and (h-awing into an ever-widening 
trading area many millions of inliabitants drawn 
from remoter regions. Thus it has created a new 
unit of population neither city, town, nor liamlet, for 
which there is as yet no name, but which is often 
referred to as a metropolitan area. As the railroad 
built up the big city, so the truck is helping to build 
up the small place within the metropolitan area. 
Some metropolitan areas have many hundreds of dif- 
ferent goverimiental units when one or at least a few 
would make many economies and produce efficiencies 
impossible in small units. In addition, the gas en- 
gine has brought the industrial revolution to the farm, 
has been of great aid to the criminal, and has become 
an engine of death to thousands of tlie people every 
year. There is therefore reason to the remark that 
the inventors of the automobile have had more in- 
fluence than Caesar, Xajioleon, and Ghengis Khan. 

Most of the present Members of Congress did not 
go to moving-picture shows as children, for there were 
none for them to attend. This is probably no matter 
of regret, but it meant that thej- had little ojjpor- 
tunity to speculate on the future of this industry 
which today in the United States draws every 10 
days patrons equivalent in number to the whole po))- 
ulation, a truly marvelous growth within a (puirter 
of a century. This great industry, like that of the 
telephone and the automobile, has helped to knit the 
territory together in a psychological sense, for the 
entire population is now exposed to the same stimuli. 



which brings them news, tells them the same stories, 
familiarizes them with the same types of manners 
and morals and hence opens up a new agency of edu- 
cation and {propaganda. Florida sees the same mov- 
ing pictures as Oregon; the fanner learns better than 
before the ways of a city. A great new competition 
for leisure time arose, affecting home, church, and 
school. It was difficult to foresee these consequences 
in 1900. 

Tiie airplane was not taken seriously at that time. 
Simon Newcomb, dean of science, wrote in 1903 : "May 
not our mechanicians be ultimately forced to admit 
that aerial flight is one of that great class of problems 
with which man can never hope to cope and give up 
all attempts to grapple with it ?" That passengers 
woidd be flown across the Atlantic Ocean to Europe 
was not contemplated. Nor was it envisioned that a 
thousand enemy airplanes of the bomber type could 
swoop down on a city and utterly destroy it, with 
hardly an effective gesture of defense on the part of 
the helpless inhabitants. Clearly the airplane haa 
brought about changes that affect the functions of both 
Congress and the Chief Executive. 

Other inventions liave been developed since the be- 
ginning of the century which have influenced public 
policy less directly, but yet effectively. It is reporteil 
that a visitor came to this country recently from the 
land of Aladdin, who, according to all accounts, pos- 
sessed a wonderful lamp that could do truly miracu- 
lous things such as transporting a person from one city 
to another on a rug or creating a ship full of jewels. 
This visitor, though nurtured on tales so stmiulating to 
the imagination, was truly astounded when he saw fac- 
tories in the United States where a wooden box was 
turned into a pair of silk stockings, where a lump of 
coal yielded colors more beautiful than royal purple 
and perfumes more delicate than attar of roses. 
Rayon has blurred lines between the social classes, once 
looked upon as barriers that were beginning to form 
even in the homeland of .Vndrew Jackson. Perhaps 
more impressive, this chemical jirodnct with other 
influences has helped to imperil a cotton kingdom and a 
textile industry which brought on the industrial revo- 
luti(jii, and clothed the world with cotton garments. 

The development of the radio, unlieralded in 1900, 
must have ajijieared equally miraculous to the visitor 
from the East when he heard a man at the South Pole 
talking through the air to hundred of thousands of 
listeners in continents separated V\v oceans. The radio 
broadcast has affected profoundly public policies, since 
it is an agency of unparalleled power for propaganda. 
But it has influenced the lives of the people more by 
bringing thena recreation and education with dramatic 
ease, especially in the relatively isolated farms and 
villaues. 



Technological Trends 

There are other iinlustries built on inventions that 
have been developed since the beginnin<i of the cen- 
tury. But tliese six industries based on the telephone, 
the automobile, the airplane, the motion picture, 
rav'on, aud tlie radio represent areat accumulations of 
capital and give employment to millions, besides hav- 
ing had social influences so vast in number and I'xieut 
as to be impossible to calculate. 

If the Legislators, Governors, and Presidents since 
the beginning of the century could have foreseen the 
development of these six great industries and could 
have anticipated their influence on society and the 
changes precipitated, they would have been in a much 
better position for directing the policies of the State. 
Highways are too narrow. The metropolitan area 
could have been planned better; much crime could 
have been prevented. Industries could have been lo- 
cated to greater advantage. The growing inadequa- 
cies of small local governments could have been more 
clearly foreseen, and the transfer of some of their 
functions to a more capable centralized government 
would have been facilitated. In hundreds of ways 
the governments, industries, and individuals could 
have planned more soundly. 

What has been written in the preceding paragraphs 
is past history. This is 1936 and not 1900. The Na- 
tion does not stand on the threshold of a new century. 
But progress is not confined to calendar arrangement. 
A new hundi-ed years begins at any time. The ques- 
tion that naturally arises is, Will the second third of 
the twentieth century see the rise of such great indus- 
tries based on new inventions as was seen in the first 
third? There may very well be six equally significant 
inventions during the next phase of our national 
growth as in the one just concluded. 

For instance, all are agreed that one such invention 
is the electron tube, said to be the greatest invention 
of the twentieth century. Its most brilliant form is 
the photoelectric cell, popularly known as the electric 
eye. This eye sees evei'ything that the human eye can 
see and more. It is even said to be able to detect cer- 
tain types of counterfeit money. It will distinguish 
colors better than hunum beings can do. When it is 
joined with another form of the electron tube, the 
vacuum tube, it becomes able to act on what it sees. 
Thus it sees a waitress approaching a door with trays 
in both hands and at once swings the door open for her 
to pass. Unlike a human l)eing it does not suffer from 
fatigue. For instance, in a factory it can watch the 
tin cans go by on a belt, pick out the defective ones, 
letting only the <rood ones go bv. This monotonous 
work can be done without strain for as long hours as 
the manager wishes. That it will cause unemployment 
is obvious, but it will also lijihten the tasks of the 



workmen. Indeed it brings the automatic factory and 
the automatic man one step closer. It may be used to 
regulate automobili> traffic, to measure the density of 
smoke, to time horse i-acing, to read, to perform niathe- 
matical calculations. Hardly a month passes without 
some new use of the photo-electric cell being reported. 
Indeed it will Te([uire decades to leaiii the many things 
this versatile instrument can do. 

There are other such new inventions described in the 
chapter which follow — inventions which will carry 
the Nation on to even greater achievement during the 
yeai"S to come. But it should be remarked here that 
the changes of the future do not rest wholly on these 
new inventions. While the six inventions mentioned 
in previous paragraphs are past history, their social 
effects are by no means all past. Many of these inven- 
tions will continue to precipitate i)rol)lems of policy 
for the Congressmen yet to come. The full effects of 
artificial fibers have not yet been felt. Tlie influence 
of the airplane lias just begun. E\en tiie familiar 
telephone will have many new and profound effects, 
when long distance telepiioning becomes more widx;- 
spread, upon the distribution of population between 
metropolis and smaller city, upon the physical separa- 
tion of management control from production, upon 
remote controls in general. The telephone wire may 
be used to record messages, bulletins, even newspapers 
in the home and office. Nor ai'e the influences of the 
very common automobile uuitters of i)ast history either. 
The new social and economic unit of population called 
the metropolitan area so encouraged by the automobile 
is in its infancy, while the trailer may be destined to 
change the habits of living and working of vast num- 
bers of the people. 

The problem is thus posed. The \arious papers 
Avhich follow are attempts to answer this question in 
the light of present knowledge. But prior to their 
presentation the problem needs to be further amplified. 
This is done inuler the accompanying headings. 

The Probability of Invention in the Future 

That invention will continue in the future may be 
taken for granted. Still, it is desirable to support this 
assumption with some evidence. Such evidence is the 
record of patents in the United States. The mmiber of 
thousands of patents issued every lu years since 1880 
are the following: 218, 235, 334, 401, and 442 in the 
decade 1921-30. It would be most unusual if such a 
contimious series of inventions should suddenly cease. 
In the first third of the twentietli century there were 
1,330,000 patents issued in the United States. In the 
secoiul tliird of the centui-y even more than one and 
a third million patents may be expected, since the 
line showing the number of patents per decade is a 
rising one. But e\en if the curve should turn down- 



National Resources Committee 



ward, there would still be a ver\- large number of in- 
ventions made. 

The statistics arc sufficiently convincing, but the 
message tlicy bring is not often remembered, possibly 
because curiosity concerns particular inventions, not 
aggregates. The importance of the inventions pre- 
vioTisly discussed is not that they were six in number, 
but that they were the telephone, automobile, radio, 
rayon, motion picture, and airplane. Similarly, it 
may be argued that though there may be in the next 
30 years more than 1,300,000 patents, there is no as- 
surance that out of so large a number of inventions, 
there will be any of the rank or importance of the 
radio and the other five that were discussed. The 
point is discussed much more fully in the papers which 
follow. It is only necessary to note here that patents 
are of very unequal value; that while most of them 
are minor and at the base of the pyramid there are 
others of great importance at the peak. So, out of a 
million or more inventions, it seems reasonable to 
assume that some will be very important. 

It should be observed that not all of these six in- 
ventions were made in the twentieth century. The 
patent on the telephone was granted to Bell in 1876. 
As regards the airplane, though the Wright brothers 
secured a patent in 1906, flights had been made hero 
and abroad earlier and the heavier-than-air flying 
machine was recognizably under advanced develop- 
ment in the latter half of the nineteenth century. 
Automobiles were in use in the last quarter of the 
nineteenth century; and though the motion picture 
was made practicable in the 1890's the date of its 
invention has been pushed still further back. Hence, 
many new inventions that will aid in shaping our 
destiny in the next 30 years are in embryonic existence 
now. 

Invention is a process, the granting of a patent be- 
ing only an incident in the process. The idea of the 
invention is first conceived with some definiteness. It 
may then be demonstrated as a plan on paper or in the 
form of a model. Many years may be required before 
it takes concrete form. Tlion follows a period in 
which the design is constructed in a form that is work- 
able. Improvements are then nuido and sales promo- 
tion efforts applied. If these two developments are 
successful, a point is finally reached where the inven- 
tion is marketable. Only some time later does it 
become sufficiently sturdy, simple, and low priced that 
a relatively large sale is possible. The process is gen- 
erally to be measured in decades and sometimes in 
centuries. 

Since this report deals with the social implications 
of inventions, and since these implications manifest 
themselves where there is extended use of these inven- 
tions, it is possible to have considerable knowledge of 



these implications before the inventions attain large 
connnercial success. JNIany of the inventions that will 
have marked social influence in the next generation 
are well along in the process by this time. So that 
the problem of finding out what will be the inventions 
that will have the widest and most significant social 
influence in the near future is not a problem of pre- 
dicting inventions as much as it is of selecting inven- 
tions which will prove to be effective among those that 
are already known. While it is possible to do some- 
thing toward the actual prediction of invention, as is 
shown in a later chapter, that is a different task from 
choosing among existing inventions those that will 
have great influence. 

What Inventions Will Be Great 

Since invention is not so much an act as a process, 
there is a lapse of time before the invention is per- 
fected sufficiently to have extensive use. This period 
of time focuses then the search for existing inventions 
significant for the future. But even though this task 
may be loss difficult than predicting inventions, it is 
sufficiently diflicult to discourage anyone, not urged 
on by an appreciation of the great value to society of 
success, or not under pressure to do so by organizations 
that must plan and act in anticipation of the future. 

Tlie problem is difficult because the death rate of 
inventions is so high. The death rate has never been 
calculated, but it is much greater than the death rate 
ever was for human babies. For invention is in process 
from the fertilization of the idea on through various 
successive stages of development. On the other hand, 
perhaps, other reasons for anticipating a premature 
death of an invention are more discernible than in the 
case of a human infant. Xatuially tiie nearer the end 
of its evolution the easier it is to pick the successful 
inventions. 

For instance, 25 years ago a good deal was heard 
about the telegraphone, an invention that recorded a 
conversation or music on a magnetized wire, which 
could be used over again after demagnetizing. This 
invention would probably have been chosen at that 
time as a jirospective successful invention of consider- 
able social influence. Yet today nothing is heard of it. 
A quarter of a century ago these machines were put 
into commercial use. Indeed, stock in the corporation 
was sold generally to the public. As to why it is not 
in general use today many reasons are given ; technical 
defects, suppression of the invention by others, the 
success of the phonograph, etc. Of course, the inven- 
tion may not be dead. It may be revived. 

The teletypcsetter was announced about a decade 
ago, making it possible for one person sitting at one 
machine to set up the type for an indefinite lunnber of 
newspapers, thus forecasting technological unomjiloy- 



Technological Trends 



lueiit ainoiiy tjpesetters. IrKleed, the type of whole 
newspapei-s were actuallj' set up by the teletypesetter, 
but the invention has not come into genei-al use as yet. 
If it becomes widely used, as is expected, the lesson is 
that delays are often longer than anticipated at the 
time of announcement. The making of sugar from 
sawdust was known in 1927, but there is no news of its 
use. Newspapers were printed in Iowa on paper made 
from cornstalks several years ago, but no paper is made 
from cornstalks now, so far as could be learned from 
inquiry. Some years ago it was announced that clocks 
and watches could be kept accurate by radio waves. 
Tliere have been thousands of similar anuouncements 
of inventions and discoveries which have not been 
used enough to leave any significant social influence. 

Of many such discoveries announced, but not used, 
it may be incorrect to refer to them as dead. They 
may at some future time be brought into use. But 
when the purpose is to pick inventions that will bo 
used in the next 20 or 30 years, then if they lie dormant 
during this period, the effect is the same as if they 
were dead. 

So, also, if an invention is being selected that will be 
exploited from 1936 to 1950 or 1960, errors may occur 
because of the length of time required for perfecting 
an invention, a length of time often much greater than 
is anticipated. Thus cotton-picking machines have 
been announced at various times during the past two 
generations. Indeed, it is a fact that 900 patents 
have been granted on cotton-picking machines by the 
United States Patent Office. Also many reports in the 
past have been made that synthetic rubber was "just 
around the corner"; only recently are types of syn- 
thetic rubber appearing on the market. Several years 
ago discoveries for the cure of cancer were reported at 
the rate of one a week, but the death rate from cancer 
is about the same today as it was 20 yeare ago. The 
tractor was in use many years before it was made fully 
practicable for use on farms. In the case of television, 
it seems to be a case of the watched pot never boiling. 
Television and the cotton picker seem about to come 
through as do some of the others mentioned; but it 
takes a longer time than is expected. The making of 
wool from cellulose and of gasoline from coal are like- 
wise slow in their development. So, with the uncer- 
tainties of the inventive process indicated by these 
illustrations it is quite difficult to say what inventions 
will be put successfully into commercial use in any 
given period of time, to a sufficient degree that they 
will have extensive influence on society. 

If it is asked why inventions die early and what ob- 
stacles delay their use, a variety of answers may be 
made. One very great cause lies in technical faults. 
If an electric organ is built on the principle of photo- 
graphing sounds on glass, it is readily seen that there 



are innuuierable possibilities of imperfections. A 
chain is no stronger than its weakest link. Some years 
ago a multiplying machine was sold that would nuUti- 
ply two large figures with only one pressure on a key 
recording multiplicand, multiplier, and product on 
paper, but the machine got out of order so frequently 
that it had to be given up. Other inventions are un- 
successful because their promoters do not solve prob- 
lems of repair service. Some inventions are so com- 
plex that special training is required to use them. 
New consumers' goods have a wider sale if they are 
simple to operate. Other inventions yield only some 
of the properties desired, but not all. Such is the case 
with many of the existing synthetic products used for 
rubber. 

Obstacles of another nature to the adoption of in- 
ventions are the ready availability of substitutes 
which render very nearly the same service. Thus, 
paper may be made from wood pulp as truly as from 
cornstalks. A very large number of inventions are 
held back for this reason. 

A difficulty of a difl'erent order is the cost of pro- 
duction, which must be relatively low for the inven- 
tion to find a market. Such is the difficulty at the 
present time with gasoline made from hydrogenated 
coal. 

A different class of difficulties lies in the economic 
sphere. The business enterprise and ability required 
to manufacture and market an invention are not 
always quickly available. Monopolies do not adopt 
inventions as readily as do competitive industries. 
Existing capital equipnient that would be scrapped if 
the iiivention were used is another obstacle. Vested 
interests that will lose because of a new invention are 
lined up against its use. A State may hold back an 
invention for social reasons, for example, because it 
may bring unemployment. Popular opinion may not 
favor the new invention, as in the case of the intro- 
duction of a new calendar. 

It is clear from the discussion, then, that tlie task 
of choosing the important inventions that will be used 
enough to have influence on society is a hazardous 
one, even though the particular inventions to choose 
from be in existence at some stage of their develop- 
ment. In closing this phase of the discussion, it may 
be remarked that there is no fully satisfactory report- 
ing of scientific discovery and invention, hence an ex- 
pert is required for even a small segment of the field. 
However, the contributors to this report have been re- 
quested to try their hand at attempting to indicate 
the technological trends in certain rather large areas 
of advance. The importance of such attempts lies in 
the 'great significance of technology for government, 
industry, and the other social organizations, which is 
the next subject to be discussed. 



8 



National Resources Committee 



Technology and National Welfare 

The Uiiiti'tl States is greater today than were the 
Indian tribes that lived here before the sixteenth cen- 
tury, in part, at least, because of a superior technology. 
With tlie Indians it was relatively crude. The differ- 
ence was not due to natural resources, for tliey were 
the same for both peoples. England's prestige and 
power during the nineteenth century rested in \>a.vt 
upon her early acquisition of the machines and trans- 
portation agencies over the iieigliboring powers who 
still used the handicrafts. Germany has been in the 
vanguard in industrial chemistry, which has greatly 
atlded to her power. 

But this investigation is not concerned wiili tech- 
nology as such nor national power in general, but 
rather with the influences of specific technological de- 
velopments, as may affect various national interests. 
Thus poison gas is a scientific discovery that places a 
l)owerful weajjon of attack in the possession of an 
enemy, and affects tlie balance of powers among nations 
I giving advantage to bold offensive states. Similarly, 
in an earlier age, tiie use of gunpowder was a jjower- 
ful factor in breaking down the system of life built 
around the feudal lord and his castle. It is well 
known tliat the use of steam in connection with 
nuichinery made of hard metals has greatly changed 
family life, taking industrial production from the 
home and somewhat later a proportion of married 
women too, eventually aiding the extension of siiffra<re 
and encoui'aging tlie entrance of women into political 
life. The automobile has changed the problem of the 
ai)prehensi()n of tlie criminal and was a factor in the 
assumption of new police responsibilities bj- the Fed- 
eral Government. Sometimes relatively simple tech- 
nological developments may raise profound problems. 
Thus discoveries in regard to methods of birth control 
are affecting the relative strength of military estab- 
lishments of different nations, and are objects for sup- 
pression by the most aggressively warlike powers. 
On the other hand, the differential diffusion of these 
methods leads to a contribution of one-half the popu- 
lation of the next generation by one-quarter of the 
present generation, and that one-qmirter is made up 
disproportionately of those with low income. 

It is clearly seen then that scientific discoveries in 
applied science and invention do have important social 
consequences that greatly affect public policies. The 
subject is then inipoitant. not because there may be 
isolated cases of influential technologies as might be 
inferred from the few illusti-ations cited, but because 
the technological equipment is of such great magni- 
tude, a fact which calls for a brief discussion. 



The Volume of Technological Change 

Our limes liave been called tlie machine age, be- 
cause of the almost inconceivable variety and number 
of inventions and discoveries affecting every field of 
human endeavor. Not all those inventions are of the 
order of the airplane nor do tliey all have the far- 
reacliing effects of the automobile. But there are 
several that do; with many more less significant ones 
exerting smaller social influences. To conceive of the 
role of technology one must think of the influence of 
any one invention, or of a manageable number multi- 
plied many thousands of times. 

The magnitudes aie ditlicult to appreciate; but it is 
commonly said that a greater part of all social changes 
of modern times are precipitated by technological 
changes. Indeed it is not easy to think of a single 
social problem whose present nature is not influenced 
in part by one or more inventions of recent times. 

For instance, the problem of social security can 
readily be related to a number of inventions witliout 
undertaking any extensive analysis. The large pro- 
portion of elders insecure in tlieir old age is affected 
by various inventions, such as those making possible 
a smaller jn-oportion of cliildren. by urban factories 
anil agricultural niacliiiieiy which increased the pop- 
ulation of cities, by transportation inventions which 
move .s(»ns and daughters to various i)arts of the 
United States and even to otlier lands, and by ma- 
chines the tending of wliich emploj'ers prefer young 
persons to old ones. Thus new inventions bring in- 
security to the aged. There is also the problem of 
security of em{)loyment. The large numbers of un- 
employed are in part due to machines talcing jobs 
away and in part to business depressions wliich tlo not 
last long in civilizations not based on machines. The 
insecurity of the sick is occasioned in part by the high 
cost of medical service resulting from the development 
of science in medicine which gives rise to expensive 
specialists and to a technological medical equipment 
whicli means a large capital outlay for the physician, 
necessitating a charge of high prices to pay interest on 
the investment. The modern problem of workmen's 
compensation is directly traceable to whirling steel. 

Even problems that are common to all societies and 
hence are not caused by changing technologies, as war, 
crime, divorce, disease, take on new forms or new de- 
grees of expression under the imjiact of changes pre- 
cipitated by technology. 

The environment of modern men is to a surprising 
degree made up of machines, much as the enviromnent 
of wild animals is made up of fauna, flora, wind, rain, 
and temperature. E\en tliose men and women who 
do not work on a machine for a living are only once 
removed from it or its products. Modern man's prob- 



Technological Trends 



9 



lem of adaptation to his machine-made environment 
is different from tlie problem of primitive man in 
adapting to nature because the macliine-niade environ- 
ment is rapidly tliaiigiui:-. and this is not the case 
with nature. 

How Scientific Achievements 
Produce Social Changes 

An invention usually affects first the persons using 
it directly. If it be a producer's goods such as a farm 
tractor, it means at once the replacement of horses or 
mules, the purchasing of gasoline, and cluinges in va- 
rious other farm practices. If it be a consumer's goods 
such as an air conditioning unit in a home, it affects 
the construction and use of the house, but of course 
the units must be fabricated and hence, for that pur- 
pose, factories must be created, marketing machinery 
set lip, etc. All such results are called the primary 
influences of the new technology. 

These primarj- effects may flow out in different di- 
rections. Thus the X-ray is used for purposes of di- 
agnosis in medicine and in dentistry. At the same 
time it is used in therapy as in the treatment of endo- 
crine glands. It is also used in industry to detect 
minute flaws in the interior of steel castings or other 
solid objects. Indeed, manufacturers of the X-ray ap- 
paratus have noted some sixty different uses of the 
X-ray. 

Similarly there are many different influences of ra- 
dio. Some 150 were reported in the study of inven- 
tions in Recent Social Trends. Radio waves are 
used in guiding ships to port, as danger signals when 
a navigator is in distress, in flying airplanes, in pro- 
gram broadcasting, in point-to-point telephoning, in 
medicine, and in e.xterminating parasites. 

These primary effects are not all exerted at once. 
Just as it sometimes requires 30 or 40 inventors work- 
ing over a long nvunber of years to evolve a complex 
major invention, and just as it may require hundreds 
of thousands of improvements spread out over time 
after the invention has been produced ; so it recpiires 
a long time for the various uses of an invention to be 
determined. The phonograph was early used for re- 
cording dictation. Only later did it evolve into a 
musical instrument. Indeed, Edison, the inventor, 
did not think much of the possibility for the ]>hono- 
graph as a musical instrument, but thought it might 
have some use as a toy. and for recording the last 
words of dying persons. One does not yet know what 
may be the possible uses of the cathode ray. 

Each of these primary effects may, in turn, produce 
derivative effects. Thus, as the tractor replaces ani- 
mals on the farms there follows as a derivative influ- 
ence less need for horse feed, which means that the 
hind used for growing such feed is turned to other 



uses. This is a secondary effect. As land formerly 
used for stock feed yields otlier crops, tlie quantity is 
increased of other agricultural jjroducts. which tends 
to lower their prices. These lower prices are, in turn, 
mirroi'ed in land values, ])erha])s in demands for tariff 
protection. Thus, these various derivative influences 
occasion effects secondary, tertiary, and so on. Each 
effect follows the other nuich like links in a chain, 
(■xcej)t that, the succeeding derivative effects become 
smaller and smaller in influence. The effect of the 
tractor on lobbying for a higher tariff is very slight 
in comparison with other forces. A derivative effect 
in another direction is the stimulation the tractor 
brings to the cooperative movement in various ways, 
but especially in the purchase of gasoline. 

In general, the first primary effect of an invention is 
found in (a) the economic practices of ]iroducliou 
and (b) in the habits of the consumers using the fin- 
ished product. The economic organization as a whole 
may be the secondary influence if the technologies 
concerned are inqjortant ones. Thus, the tractor has 
the influence of making farms larger because on the 
smaller farms a tractor will not pay. Time is required 
to purchase additional laud and to consolidate farms. 
In other ways tractors influence the agricultural eco- 
nomic organization. They make the adjustment to a 
business depression more difficult than in the case of 
horses and mules, for in a depression it is easier to 
raise feed than to buy gasoline. The tractor also 
moves the farmer a bit closer toward specialized com- 
mercial farming as contrasted to subsistence farming. 
Very many of the great inventions following the so- 
called Industrial Revolution have been nuichines af- 
fecting industrial and economic life, namely, gasoline 
engines, motors, steamboats, chemical and metallurgi- 
cal inventions. Very often, then, the first great social 
institution affected by these changes has been the 
economic organization. 

Later derivative effects impinge on other social in- 
stitutions, such as family, government, church. Thus, 
the great economic changes that followed the power 
inventions modified the organization of the family. 
Women went to work outside the home. Children 
were em))loyed in factories. The home gradually lost 
its economic functions. The father ceased to be much 
of an employer or manager of household labor, at 
least in cities and towns. There followed a shift of 
authority from father and home to industry and 
State. In cities homes became quite limited as to 
space. More time was spent outside by the members 
of the famity. In general, then, these changes in in- 
dustry reacted on the family life. 

In a similar way inventions have impinged upon 
government. In some industries the nature of inven- 
tion was to encourage monopolistic corporations deal- 



10 



National Resources Committee 



ing in services used by a large number of individuals 
or other corporations. Hence governments took on 
regulatory functions as in the case of the public 
utilities. Taxation measures shifted from genei-al 
property, tariffs, and excises on consumption goods 
to taxes on personal and corporate incomes and on 
inheritances. In many other ways the goverimient 
was forced to extend its functions, as in the case of 
interstate commerce. City governments, especially, 
had to assume many more activities than those exer- 
cised by counties, where wealth was produced largely 
on farms without the use of power machines. 

Thus, the great inventions which first changed in- 
dustry produced derivative ctl'ects on other social in- 
stitutions, such as government and the family. 
Finally these, in turn, have produced still another 
derivative effect upon social views and political 
philosophies. The attitude toward the philosophy of 
laissez faire eventually undergoes change as more and 
more governmental services are demanded, despite 
professions of the old faith to the contrary. The 
philosophy regarding home changes too. It is not 
so clear under the new conditions of the machine age 
that woman's place is in the home or that the 
authority of paternalism in the family is exercised 
as wisely as it was thought to be in the days of our 
forefathers. Also attitudes toward recreation and 
leisure time change, with city conditions and repeti- 
tive labor in factories. That these attitudes are so 
slow to change and are often near the last of the 
derivative effects of invention may apjiear surprising. 
It is true that these new attit\ules always appear quite 
early with some few advanced individuals, leaders, 
and martyrs. The social philosophies of the mass of 
citizens do not change so early. Observation seems to 
indicate that the ideational philosophies hang on, be- 
come subjects of reverence, and are in general the 
last to change in any large way. 

In concluding the observations of the way technol- 
ogies exei-cise influence, an invention may be likened 
to a billiard ball, which strikes another ball, which in 
turn still another, and so on until the force is spent. 
Changes are started on one institution which impinge 
on others, and those on still others. There is great 
variety in these sequences; but in the past in many 
important cases the change occurred first in the tech- 
nology, which changed the economic institutions, 
which in turn changed the social and governmental 
organizations, which finally changed the social beliefs 
and philosophies. This conclusion does not preclude, 
of course, the importance and prevalence of other 
social forces originating from sources other than in- 
vention and following this or other sequences. These 
are not, however, the subject of this report which deals 
with technology. 



Those, then, wlio would anticipate the social conse- 
quences of technologic changes must recognize the 
process of derivative influences. The preceding de- 
scription of this process, it may be noted, applies to 
groups of inventions as well as to particular invention. 
The reason of this is that often a multitude of inven- 
tions all lead toward the same general social effect. 
This phenomenon must next be discussed. 

The Same Social End 

From Many Different Inventions 

The importance of this observation that different 
inventions lead to much the same social result lies in 
the fact that because of it the prediction of social con- 
sequences of inventions is aided. It may be indeed less 
diflScult for this reason than the prediction of tech- 
nological changes. The growth of the suburbs might 
have been forecast for the reason that they are en- 
couraged by a number of recent inventions, not just 
one. Some of these are the steam railroad, the elec- 
tric railway, the automobile, the truck, the telephone, 
the chain store, the radio, and the motion picture. 

Another case is the influence of inventions on pri- 
vacy and isolation, that is, the transmission of com- 
munications into the home community or place of 
work. Mail delivery was early in bringing changes. 
Then came the telephone, which was quite an intrusion. 
Lately there is the radio. There are now further pos- 
sibilities, an instrument that will record a message de- 
livered by telephone whether the ring is answered 
orally or not. The teletype is still another device for 
bringing messages, which is found now in different 
offices. If facsimile transmission does not print news- 
papers in the home, or at least leave bulletins of news, 
stock market quotations, or weather reports they may 
be had by radio broadcast. The phonograph brought 
music into the home before the radio. In addition tel- 
evision will further bring intrusions and break down 
isolation. One may then foresee the individual as be- 
ing more and more subject to the influences of propa- 
ganda or education. The power of mass appeals will 
be greatly strengthened because of these inventions all 
pointing in varying degrees to the same end. 

This principle spoken of as that of substitute in- 
ventions is discussed more fully in a later chapter, in 
regard not only to forecasting social effects of inven- 
tions but also inventions themselves. Why is it that 
the influences of different inventions are grouped in 
clusters? It would seem as though demand is the 
answer, commoidy implied in the old saying that 
necessity is the mother of invention. Such a proverb 
is only a part truth, for there are many cases to show 
that necessity did not produce the invention needed. 
But there are also plenty of illustrations that social 
demands influence the direction of invention. 



Technological Trends 



11 



A very good illustration is one discussed in anothei" 
cliapter, that of securinj^ useful information about an 
individual. In a stable community with aggregations 
of population little larger than a village an individual 
becomes generally quite well known even to his mi- 
nute idiosyncrasies. The requirements of the tasks 
which he or she is sought to perfonn are also generally 
known. The situation is quite different in a complex 
society undergoing rapid change with large popula- 
tions and a good deal of mobility. There is thus an 
urgent demand to know more about individuals. So 
there are psychological tests, school grades, finger- 
2)rints, lie detectoi's, case history records, vocational 
guidance agencies, etc. The influences of these various 
inventions all flow into the same groove leading to- 
ward more information about the person concerned. 
It is the social need that determines the groove. From 
this point of view it would appear that social influence 
creates invention as truly as inventions have social in- 
fluences. Such is the case. Social valuations do help 
to produce inventions but it must be recognized that 
there are limits to the jiower of necessity to bring 
forth invention. The discovery of effective cures for 
insanit}' has yet to come despite the long-standing 
need. On the other hand an invention will not be 
used if there is no need or if a desire for it cannot be 
stimulated. There must be some receptivity for a 
discovery before its influence can be felt, particularly 
the primary influence. The derivative influences are 
not however the result of the need of the invention 
itself and sometimes occur not only when thej' are not 
needed but when they are harmful, as in the case of 
automobile accidents. Workmen's compensation is a 
derivative influence of the use of dangerous machinerj"" 
but such an insurance was not the necessity which 
helped to encourage the use of fast moving machines. 

If then a survey of a nimiber of inventions points 
toward one social end, there is more assurance in look- 
ing forward toward such a result as a probability. 
Tliis conclusion is not however the basis of organiza- 
tion of this report to the National Resources Connnit- 
tee. That is to say, the contributors who are special- 
ists in technology and science do not choose such 
topics as satellite cities, vocational guidance, isolation, 
marketing, the home, and try to trace out the inven- 
tions whose influences are flowing in on them to see 
whether there is an accumulation or not. A program 
of research of this nature would be, though, a very de- 
sirable one to undertake with the proper time and sup- 
port. The basis of organization of this report is rather 
to canvass the new inventions in the different fields of 
technological advance as a basis for tracing outward 
the influences that flow from them. The first step in 
such a plan is to secure experts in the different fields 



to report on the probable technological developments 
in tliese fields. These reports can then be the basis 
for attempts to ascertain the social implications. 

The Time Lag Between Innovation 
and Social Effect 

Some time elapses before the full effects of an in- 
vention are worked out. Tliis time element furnishes 
an opportunity of studying and forecasting what the 
social consequences may be. 

Some of the effects take place after only a very 
short delaj'. Tlie talking pictures threw the orches- 
tras of the moving picture theaters out of work 
(juickv. Similarly the tractor when it luul been made 
suitable to the farm brought unemployment to horses 
quickly. The automobile affected the carriage manu- 
factures soon. In these cases the effect on a single 
unit is almost instantaneous. The woman who uses 
an electric washing machine does not use the old hand 
washtub. But one case does not make a social situa- 
tion. Many tractors must be used before the transfer 
of lands from horse feed to other uses will affect the 
prices of agricultural products. The displacement of 
one orchestra by the talking picture adds only a few 
to the unemployed but after a time ten thousand or 
more may be thrown out of work. The social signifi- 
cance of an invention dejjends on the frecpiency of its 
use. One automobile will not congest a city street, but 
a sufficient number will necessitate traffic police and 
signal lights. 

It is not oidy the frequency of a single type of use 
of an invention that indicates its social significance, 
but also the variety of its uses. Thus the automobile 
forced city govermnents to abandon the old fire horses. 
But there was a delay. The city governments did not 
always make the change as soon as the opportunity 
was presented. In these cases it is not unreasonable 
to expect that it could have been foreseen that fire 
engines would be driven by combustion engines rather 
than by horses. So also one might have foreseen the 
greater use of traffic police because of the automobiles, 
though such a prediction would necessarily have to 
be based on a consideration, amons other thinss. of 
the future price of motorcars, which would present 
difficulties. 

The derivative effects of inventions are more diffi- 
cult to anticipate than the primary effects, but there is 
also more time for studying them, for the derivative 
effects are delayed longer. The effect of the tractor 
on agricultural prices because of the shift in uses of 
the land takes some time, partly because of the influ- 
ence in volume of use, but also because agricultural 
l^ric'e is a derivative influence. 

These derivative influences are delayed because there 
are usually a number of other determining factors 



12 



National Resources Committee 



afl'ectiiiix tluMii ili;m the one of invention alone. Thus 
agriciihural prices are affected often in a world mar- 
ket b}- many other factors such as climate, business 
cycles, volume of credit, and so forth. These other 
factors tend to minimize the magnitutle of these deriv- 
ative influences of an invention and also to slow them 
up. Tlie cotton gin increased the production of cot- 
ton, and this greater yield might have been foreseen. 
The derivative influence of increasing the number of 
slaves is less easily seen, for the number of slaves de- 
jiends upon their availability througli purchase from 
other lands, for which capital was required, or from 
natural increase, wjiich took time. That the Civil 
War coidd have been foreseen as a derivative influ- 
ence of the cotton gin is e.xtremely doubtful, for there 
were too many factors other tlian the cotton gin caus- 
ing the war, many of which were subject to human 
control. 

Derivative influences of inventions ilo not seem nec- 
essarily to be inevitable, as the term is generally used. 
Such, theoretically, was the case of the Civil War. 
There was an element of choice or will power. An- 
other illustration. Modern industrialism and the in- 
ventions leading to the growth of intangible property 
have rendered inadequate the general jiroperty tax, 
still common, however, as a source of State revemie. 
These inventions should have made this ta.\ obsolete, 
but it is a derivative effect far removed. Human ac- 
tion, based on will, is needed to change the general 
property tax. The delay in this case is measured in 
terms of centuries. 

Delays of this nature are sometimes occasioned by 
the difficulty of making a collective choice. Concerted 
action requires more time than that of a single indi- 
vidual and meets with more obstacles. Thus modern 
transportation, together with some other recent inven- 
tions, has rendered the size of counties less suitable 
as an administrative unit in numy areas, especially 
wliere the counties are small. In some States a citizen 
can ride in an automobile on a paved highway from 
his home to the State capital in as short a time as he 
could drive in a horse and buggy over the bad roads 
from his farm to the county seat when the county sys- 
tem was founded. Many county governments cannot 
provide the necessai-y social services. Yet delays oc- 
cur in either widening their boundaries or providing 
other adequate machinery. These delays are due in 
part to the diffii-idty of collective action, particularly 
as the local politicians have great influence with the 
voters. There are, no doubt, other influences, such as 
local pride in being a county seat. But whatever the 
factors, this adjustment of local administrative units 
to proper boundaries is not made because of the diffi- 
cultv of collective action. 



These lags in tlie derivative effects of technologies 
then precipitate the issue of values, whether one effect 
is desirable or not. In the case of the general prop- 
erty tax and of the count}* government there is gen 
eral agreement that the delay is undesirable but in 
other cases there is no such imanimity of agreement 
Such is the illustration of closer contacts with Europe 
brought about by the transportation and communica- 
tion inventions. Some observers would make the 
choice of further isolation for the United States while 
others woidtl i)ropose one or more of various types 
of closer relationsliip. In the case of these derivative 
effects of invention, delays are long, collective choices 
are difficult, and the issue of policy is raised. 

While the delay between the origin of an invention 
and its various social consequences may be quite long 
and thus allow time for the anticii)ation of these 
social consequences, planned action may not neces- 
sarily follow even a successful anticipation, for plan- 
ning means choice and a decision to act on the plans. 
Thus it becomes desirable to extend the discussion of 
technology with its delayed social effects into con- 
siderations of planning. 

Policy, Planning, and Technology 

One important lag in connection with tlie policy of 
society toward invention lies in the rate of adoption of 
new invention in the place of existing machinery. A 
conspicuous trait of the dynamic age in which we live 
is to be seen in the rapid pace at which existing capital 
equipment is nuide obsolete by technical inventions and 
other innovations in the design and construction of 
consumption and capital goods. Economists and busi- 
ness men have always been aware of the effects of this 
i-apid rate of change in bringing capital obsolescence. 
But special attention has been focused on the obsoles- 
cence of capital e(iui]iment by the industries nuiking 
new equipment. Ti-ade jt)urnals and industry associa- 
tions have stinuilated study aiul collected data on the 
extent of obsolescence. In 1934, the trade journal 
Power made a study of A'A "better-than-average"' in- 
dustrial power plants constituting nearly 10 percent 
of industrial primemover capacity and found 6'2 per- 
cent of the equipment was over 10 years old while 25 
percent was over 20 j'ears. Some of the older equip- 
ment was presumably used as standby plant for emer- 
gencies, but the bulk of the older equipment was 
regarded as obsolete to such an extent that, by replac- 
ing it by facilities of the most advanced design, 50 
cents could be saved, on the average, out of each dollar 
spent in the older plants for industrial power. In 
1935 the American Machinist made a study of the 
obsolescence of metal-working equipment, concluding 
that, because of the rapid ini]irovement in machine 
design, metal working equii)ment was as a rule obsolete 



Technological Trends 



13 



if not produced witliiii the last 10 years. It took an 
inventory of the a<j;e of .siicli machinery and found that 
65 percent of all the metal-vorking equipment in the 
country was over 10 years old and presumably obsolete. 
Tlie Interstate Conuiierce Connnissiou records indicate 
that 61 percent of tlie steam locomotives in the country 
were built over 20 years ago. These figures suggest 
the magnitude of capital obsolescence. 

Further light on the niagniiude of caijilal obsoles- 
cence is thrown by the estimates of tlie potential ma- 
chinery re<iuirements of all iiulustry made in llUJ.") by 
the Machinery and Allietl Pioducts Institute. This 
institute made an extensive survey, sampling the re- 
quirements of industries covering over 85 percent of 
all industry, antl on the basis of this survey estimated 
that the jiotential machinery re(iuirements of all in- 
dustry amounted to over 18 million doihn-s worth. Of 
this amount over 10 billion consisted of new equipment 
to replace old equipment which was for the most part 
obsolete. 

Obsolescence surveys like the ones above referred to 
clearly indicate the magnitude of capital obsolescence. 
Yet the social implications of capital obsolescence have 
received very little study and a whole series of ques- 
tions are waiting to be answered. When equipment 
becomes obsolete and therefore loses value who suffers 
a loss ? Does obsolescence involve a social cost or only 
a business cost? Is capital obsolescence a cause of in- 
dustrial maladjustment? Does the existence of exten- 
sive obsolete equipment prevent the using of better 
industrial techniques? Can the risks of capital obso- 
lescence be reduced without impeding the use of better 
techniques ? Should the losses due to capital obsoles- 
cence be distributed throughout industry? So little is 
known of the actual imjjact of capital obsolescence on 
industrial activity that no answer can be given to these 
questions. Yet they are questions forced on us by our 
rapidly improving technology and deserve the most 
careful study. Capital obsolescence and all that it 
involves needs to be extensively studied if the full 
social implication of current trends of improving tech- 
nology are to be appreciated and the problems pre- 
sented by improving technology are to be met. 

But after inventions are adopted, the social effects do 
not come immediately as has been shown in the pre- 
ceding section. There would thus seem to be time to 
consider the social implications of inventions. The 
difficulties in plamiing lie in other directions. 

One of these difficulties is the unwillingness to admit 
the great role which so material a thing as technology 
plays in causing problems in society. It is only re- 
cently that one would admit that a man was imem- 
ployed because a machine had destroyed his job. The 
explanation, all but universal, was that a man was out 
of work because he wouldn't work. The forces of 



society were wholly moral. The driving forces that 
changed things were great ideas. With the requisite 
great men and the proper leadership, all problems 
could be solved. Solutions were seen in terms of 
moral conduct, the ])roper choices and the necessary 
will power. That a nation could not be a gi'eat power 
without coal and iron was not readily admitted for it 
posited a materialistic limitation. ]5ut wilh machines 
all about us during our daily life in tiiis tiie great 
machine age, their great influence cannot be gainsaid. 
iSuch an awareness of material things makes no denial 
of the power of ideas, of ethics, of will power, of great 
leatlers. But it does insist on the necessity of taking 
into consideration in planning the great influence of 
machines and scientific discoveries. The plamied use 
or distribution of natural resources of any nation are 
of little value without knowledge of what uses tech- 
nologies will make of them. Will oil be made from 
coal? Will plastics take the place of wf)od? Will 
alcohol be used as a motor fuel? Will more food 
stuffs be produced chemically? These questions sug- 
gest the importance of a knowledge of scientific devel- 
opment in any planning in regard to natural resources. 

Social institutions as well as natural resources are 
affected by technology as has been shown. The liome | 
was changed because a steam engine and the machines' 
it drove were too large for a dwelling. Now there has 
come a new source of i)ower readily available for home 
use, electricity. Will it restore to family life some- 
thing of its former glory before steam reduced its 
functions? Another illustration is war, a function of 
all states in the past. It is affected by the discoveries 
of poison gases as a weapon of military offense par- 
ticularly their distribution among civilian populations 
by airplanes. Such technological tlevelopments nuist 
be_considered by governments for they affect the veiy 
life and death of states. 

Granting that sound plans must be based on tech- 
nological knowledge, and granting that technological 
development is sufficiently slow to permit time for 
study and planning, the task still remains very diffi- 
cult. Also the task of forecasting a trend within a 
limited period, say the next 20 years, is a more diffi- 
cult assignment than to have an unlimited time. And 
since plans are expected to be carried out in a definite 
time, what is needed is not to say that something will 
occur in the future, but within a definite time limit. 

The difficulties in forecasting the social influences 
of mechanical inventions and scientific discoveries and 
the status of the effort at this time should not be 
considered as obstacles so great as to make the method 
useless for the very practical task of governmental 
planning. Indeed, the experience gained from this 
first attempt at describing the technological trends of 
the near future is such as to give confidence that 



14 



National RcHources Committee 



furllier efforts will be more fruitful and that much 
information increasingly reliable can be made avail- 
able for governmental executives and legislators. 

Wliat, of course, is needed is a group of thinkers 
who will make it their business to devote a continuing 
study of some duration to future trends, and whose 
work will be given adequate recognition. The move- 
ment to study future trends would be furthered by 
the aid of new scientific journals devoted to this field 
or else by the granting of adequate space in the exist- 
ing scientific publication media for studies of fore- 
casting of both technological and social trends. In 
the world of social change of today, such a division 
of labor and specialization is altogether reasonable. 
Indeed it is more, it is essential for adequate attack 
upon the problems ushered in by social change. A 
decade of organized etl'ort devoted to such incjuiries 
into future trends would result in contributions of 
the utmost value to the formation of gcvenmiontal 
policies and plans. 

How the govermnents will act on the basis of such 
contributions is another question. For presenting 
conclusions is different from acting on the basis of 
those conclusions. Plans of action involve policies 
which arc based often on values and choices. Gov- 
ermnents are verj' often at the crossroads of im- 
portant decisions. Government is not a passive agent 
molded by tlie forces evolving from technology. 

For these reasons the effect of invention on the 
State is often longer delayed than is the case with 
other social organizations. For instance, it is ob- 
vious that modern transi)ortation carries its freight 
and passengers across State boundary lines much 
more frequently than in the early history of the 
Nation. Los Angeles is now as close to New York 
as Philadelphia was at the time the Supreme Court 
was founded. Industry transcends State lines and 
the market for most economic goods is Nation-wide. 
Though these things be true, yet the people and the 
Go\ernment are not decided as to just what policy 
to follow in regard to the reduction of distances by 
the transportation inventions. There are some who 
would try to keep business small and within bounds 
manageable by the 48 different States. But thei'e are 
others who feel the need of one strong centralized 
government to deal with industries, so many of which 
it is claimed are extending in influence beyond the 
boundaries of any one State. This illustration shows 
that though the growth of ti-ansportation is well 
recognized and that its effect on State boundary lines 
and local govermnent may be seen, yet decisive action 
on the part of Government may be tlelayed. 

In other words, even though changing technology 
may give information about future social conditions 
which may be used as the basis of planning, such 



knowledge may not be acted upon. For successful 
planning rests upon other factors than knowledge, par- 
ticularly unanimity of purpose, the will to act. The 
jjlace which a knowledge of technological trends occu- 
pies in planning is oidy to furnish information with- 
out which plans are likely to be uncertain. Even 
though unanimity of purpose exists and the will to 
act is present, without knowledge as to what is likely 
to happen in the future, such plans as m.ay be made 
will be to that extent defective. 

At the beginning of the twentieth century it was 
shown that the Nation stood on the threshold of a great 
development of important inventions, such as the tele- 
phone, the airplane, the radio, the motion picture, the 
automobile, and the manufacture of artificial fibers 
which were to affect profoundly all phases of national 
life. The Nation faces now tlie second third of the 
twentieth century. What may be expected in techno- 
logical development ? 

How far reaching will be the effects of the mechan- 
ical cotton picker? Will the surplus labor of the 
South flood the northern and western cities? Will the 
governments plan and act in time, once the spread of 
this invention is certain? The influence on Negroes 
may be catastrophic. Farm tenancy will be affected. 
The political system of the southern States may be 
greatly altered. 

In another field, science has gone far on the road 
to producing artificial clunate in all its aspects, which 
may have effects on the distribution of population, 
upon health, upon production, and upon the trans- 
formation of the night into day. 

Then again television may become widely distrib- 
uted, placing theaters into millions of homes and in- 
creasing even more the already astounding possibilities 
of propaganda to be imposed on a none too critical 
human race. 

Talking books may come as a boon to the blind, but 
with revoluntionary effects upon libraries and which, 
together with the talking picture and television, may 
affect radically schools and the educational process. 

The variety of alloys gives to metals amazing adapt- 
abilities to the purposes of man. 

The use of chemistry in the production of new ob- 
jects in contrast to the use of mechanical fabrication 
on the basis of power continues to develop with re- 
markable rapidity, in the production of oil, of woolen- 
like fibers, of substitutes for wood, and of agencies 
of destruction. 

So the innnediate future will see the application of 
new scientific discoveries that will bring not only en- 
ticing prospects but uncertainties and difficulties as 
well. This report is offered as a first study of the basis 
of the ini]ien(ling changes which shape the Nation's 
course in the future. 



II. THE PREDICTION OF INVENTIONS 

By S. C. Gilfillan ' 



In dealing with the i^redictability of inventions a 
first step obviously is to turn to past experiences, 
where considerable time has elapsed between the pre- 
dictions and their success or failure as shown by actual 
events. A long list of inventions wliich had been fore- 
told aright could be tlrawn up easily. But particular 
predictions from anyone's pen might be riglit through 
sheer accident, whereas other predictions by the same 
writer might be mostly wrong. 

Can Inventions Be Foreseen? 

A surer proof of the fact that prediction may be 
carried on with a high average of success can be found 
by considering all the predictions within a given cate- 
gory, perhaps all those in a single book, or in articles 
by certain writers. A great number of books and 
articles can be found whose forecasts have been highly 
mistaken. Some of their authors, like Jules Verne, 
were not seriously trying to predict the nearer future ; 
others may have been using wrong methods. Careful 
examination of the work of wi'iters who have repeat- 
edly pre^licted inventions with a high percentage of 
success, may lead to successful imitation or even im- 
provement of their methods. 

In the Scientific American of October 1920, there 
appeared a long editorial article. The Future as Sug- 
gested by the Devel()]uneuts of the Past 75 Years, by 
A. C. Lescarboura and others.- It was aimed not more 
than 75 years in the future, and commonly less, and 
reads today as a very reasonable, clear-sighted preview 
of the developments of the past 16 years, and of those 
that we would still predict today. It is hard to meas- 
ure the degree of correctness, from the difficulties of 
counting prophecies, evaluating those whose possible 
fulfillment is still in the future, and taking account of 
conditional and hesitant predictions. Still \vc may say 
that, of the 65 definite predictions of invention in this 
article, 38 percent have been already verified ; 20 per- 
cent are nearly certain to be verified, according to the 
writer's opinion today; 8 percent have been proved 
wrong ; 3 percent will be proved wrong, in the writer's 
opinion ; and 22 percent are doubtful. Separating the 
doubtful equally between right and wrong, and adding 
the classes, the writer would say that probably 78 per- 



cent of these definite predictions have been or will be 
verified, and 22 percent found wrong. The proportion 
I'ight is much larger than one would expect from mere 
luck, \vithout any power of foreknowledge. But we 
do not know how to estimate ^ the number of hits that 
could ]ia\e been obtained by slieer luck. 

Some limitation of the alternatives facing the fore- 
caster appears in tlio cases where he chose only to say 
that the trend would be in a certain direction, as to- 
ward more canals, or progress in overcoming static. 
There were 14 technical predictions of this sort, not 
counted above, in the article, and all were right. 

There were no gross blunders in this article, and no 
evidence of lack of technological competence. But 
there were two striking failures to foresee — first, 
radio-telephonic broadcasting, whose beginning is 
usually taken as KDKA's, just one month later, in 
November 1920. Radiotele{)hony is not even men- 
tioned in the article, although an old art, and one cited 
elsewhere in the same issue. We shall note later how 
its broadcast ^Dossibilities were overlooked by almost 
everyone. The article under study gave 6 percent of 
its space to radiotelegraphy and phototelegraphy, and 
correctly predicted broadcasting — "subscribing to con- 
certs and motion pictures for tlie home, the sei'vice be- 
ing distributed over the usual telephone lines by a 
central studio", thus managing to predict broadcasting 
due to the important principle of equivalent invention, 
to be discussed later. 

Tlie other most important invention introduced in 
the period covered, the talking picture, was likewise 
omitted, with the movies, from this article. Yet the 
talking picture had been realized since about 1887. 
and had been a favorite item for prophets since 1890. 
In the same issue of this 1920 journal a cautious writer 
on photographic inventions says that talking and color 
mo^'ies have been created and expected by some, but 
are hardly needed. Failure to foresee the uses and 



^ Formerly Curator of Social Sciences, Museum of Science and Indus- 
try, Cliicago, III., and author of The Sociology of Invention. 

= Sci. Am., V. 12.3, pp. 320-321; Oct. 2, 1920. By Austin C. Lescar- 
boura with collaboration of J. B. Walker on civil engineering and J. M. 
Bird on science. 



' It would be very helpful if we could estimate the number of pos- 
sible forecasts, among wliich choice was made: for the greater the 
range of possibilities, the less is the chance of a hit by sheer luck. 
One might artificially restrict the number of chances by a question- 
naire, asking various competent people to mark the statu.s, say, of 
radio control 20 years hence, as either nothing, slight, considerable, 
or vast ; then reexamining the questionnaires 10, 20, and 50 years 
hence, study statistically how nearly people were right, and what sort 
of predictions were correct and why. This would be an easy and 
excellent inquiry to start now, for future utility— the measurement of 
foresight. It might improve prediction as much as other arts have 
been bettered, once statistical and exact measurement was introduced. 
But wfth other arts the mea.surement was promptly u.seful, whereas 
with prediction we must wait for years to test our experimental data. 

15 



16 



National Resources Committee 



usefulness of known inventions has been a conspicuous 
shortcoming — and one wliicli the present vohime en- 
deavors to correct. 

Home talking pictures and transoceanic radio 
hroailcasting both were foretokl in another remark- 
ably soinid and prescient article, by the great elec- 
ti-ician, Steinmetz, 21 j'ears ago.* Looking ahead he 
saw housekeeping thoi-oughly electrified, automatic air 
conditioning, current so cheap that meters would not 
be installed, but flat rates charged, a law against light- 
ing any fire in the smokeless city, the power plants all 
placed at coal mines, oil or gas wells or waterfalls. It 
is a Utopian picture, yet .seemingly well justified by 
developments to date. Of the 25 predictions, there 
can be figured 28 percent fulfilled, 48 percent destined, 
none wrong, and 24 percent doubtful. There is only 
one sheer blunder, and that was not prophecy, but an 
attempt at botany. 

Somewhat similar were the optimistic views of Edi- 
son 4 years earlier, though still mostly to be tested by 
the future.' Hudson Maxim did well in 190S." 

George Sutherland's 20th Century Inventions, writ- 
ten in 1900, is mostly wasted through his attempt to 
tell just how things could be done in the future, his 
proposed inventions being uniformly bad. But where 
he speaks of the inventions of others he has been veri- 
fied 50 percent of the time, according to a sample of 
36 cases, and apparently will be in 10 percent more, iii 
error a third of the time, and 2 cases doubtful, or say 
in all C4 i)ercent right. He foresaw picture teleg- 
raphy, radiotelephony, wireless clocks, controls, and 
perhaps power, and an equivalent of the recording 
telephone. But as to aviation and the submarine he 
shuts his eyes to the light : "The amount of misguided 
ingenuity which has been expended on these two prob- 
lems of submarine and aerial navigation during the 
nineteenth century will otfer one of the most curious 
and interesting studies to the future historian of tech- 
nologic progress." 

A similar book, but less ciuscd by personal in- 
genuity and alive to others' inventions and their con- 
sequences, was written in lOOG by another English 
writer, T. Baron Russell, A Hundred Years Hence." 
In a sample of 33 technologic predictions, 46 percent 



* You Will Think This a Dream, by Chas. P. .Steinmetz ; in Ladies 
Home Journal, Sept. 15. inio. 32: 12. 

"Tlie Wonderful New World Ahead of Us — some startling prophecies 
of the future as dPscribe<l by Edison and reported by Allan L. Beuson : 
In Cosmopolitan, 1911. 50: 294 ff. 

The Inventions of the Future ; interview with John R. McMahon : 
in Indep. G8 : 15-18, 1910. 

Today and Tomorrow; interview with John R. McMahon; in Indep. 
77 : 24-7, 1914. 

"Hudson Jlaxlm : Man's Machine- .Made Millennium; in I'oiimopolitan. 
45: 569-76. 

'A Hundred Years Hence — the expectations of an optimist. Edin- 
burgh and Chicago. 1906. 



hare been and 24 percent will apparently be verified, 21 
percent seem erroneous, and jicrccnt doubtful, or in 
all, 74 percent riglit. 

Still earlier successful forecasters were Elsdale * 
and Crookes." H. G. Wells has predicted miK-h. but 
not often to our point, smce his forecasts of inventions 
have usually been too remotely in the future, and his 
.short-range predications are usually in the social 
realm, not about inventions. But he issued in 1902 an 
inspiring appeal for a science of prediction,*" and his 
Anticipations that year is about as successful as his 
contemporaries' books, with numerous forecasts on the 
automobile age, housekeeping, and war. 

The predictive capacity of the present writer may 
also be tested on the basis of five articles published 
as long as 25 years ago.^^ One on future, or Utopian 
housekeeping, proposed no dates, and allowed for un- 
limited delay. "The centralized kitchen will come, 
not when (pneumatic) tubes are invented, but when 
women will see the merit in someone else's cooking, 
or the grocer, the teamster, the sho])keeper see the 
rightfulness in a cliange that would witiier their oc- 
cupations." The article remains as good, or poor, 
prophecy as ever, no great progress having been made 
toward the rational centralization and professional- 
ization of the various housekeeping tasks. A 1913 
article was on tlie growth of future liners, with a 
graph of their future lengths. Many have presented 
the like, but this article alone predicted a decline 
of length from 1.200 feet, beginning in 1935, just when 
two of the three last record-breaking leviathans we 
may ever see were being unwillingly completed. The 
progress of aircraft and of railroads to be built paral- 
lel to marine routes was given as the reason for the 
liner's decline, since if these removed the fastest and 
best-paying traffic, smaller and slower ships would be 
wanted. The aircraft j^rediction seems about to be 
verified ; the railroad one has not been. A 1912 article 
on the Future Home Theater, quite correctly predicted 
the home talking picture and television set of today 
and tomorrow and their uses, although the writer was 
so ill-informed as quite to overlook radio, succeeding 
only as a result of the principle hereafter discussed 



• Lt. Col. llinry Elsdale: Scicntifie I'roblems of the Future; in Smith- 
son. Instn. An. Rept. for 1894. 

° Sir William Crookes : Some Possibilities of Electricity ; in Fort- 
nightly Rev.. February 1S02. 

1° niscovery of the Future; in Smithson. .\n. Rept. for 1902, pp. 
STS-.-iOi. 

" S. C. Giltillaii : Housekeeping in the Future : in Indep., 72 : 1000- 
1062, 1912. 

The Size of Future I.iner.s ; in Indep.. 7-1 : 541-513, 1913, 

Tlie Future Home Theater : in Indep., 73 : SS6-S91. 1912. 

In a most obscure print, Gilfillans Oazet, New Years 1917, 30 proph- 
ecies still for the future. 

In Scarlet and Black, of Grinnell College. Iowa. Feb. 2, 1925. a dis- 
cussion of television, clear fused quartz, the rotorship, and mercury 
engine, as particularly promising inventions. 



Technological Treruls 



17 



of equivalent invention. If a revised edition of each 
article were to be published today, there would be few- 
words recjuiring change. 

Prediction in Various Special Fields 

Some brief examinations of the success of predic- 
tion generally in certain special fields — military, air- 
planes, radio, and television — should lie instructive. 
These categories have not been covered fully enough 
for statistical analysis to be used. Rather, this review 
is intended to give a general idea of how prediction 
has gone, why it has been more successful in certain 
fields and by certain kinds of seers than by others, 
and how it might have been done much better, had the 
most ca])able predictors been fully awake to the latest 
developments and thought of their time and of one 
another. 

In tlie forecasting of military inventions, what is 
striking is the usual poor success of those who pub- 
lished. H. G. Wells claims an exception for Bloch, 
a Polish l)anker who, in 1897, predicted that war must 
lead to a deadlock of trenches, and of economic exhaus- 
tion, such as did arrive for Central and Eastern 
Europe after 3 or 4 years' fighting.'- His jii-edic- 
tions in more detail ■were largely mistaken. Wells' 
revision of 1902 was a more successful study. It 
seems that the military arts are so progressive, and 
the value and possibility of invention so well recog- 
nized (despite claims that all revolutionary military 
inventions have been made by civilians), and the 
latest developments and projects are held so closely 
secret, that it is impossible for an outside author to 
outguess the silent inside experts, unless he ranges 
far into the future. 

Thus, a humorous French article " of 1883 did suc- 
ceed in predicting tanks, gas shells and masks, liquid 
fire, mine-laying by submarines, railway guns, the 
importance of artillery, dirigibles, airplanes, air tor- 
pedoes, anti-aircraft artillerj- and observation posts, 
and telephoning from an airplane by a trailing wire, 
which can be done if the airplane circles about. In 
short, this article foretold about all the novel im- 
plements of the war 35 years later. 

The airplane has had no lack of forward-looking 
inventors since the first attempts in the Middle Ages, 
on through Ailer '^ who flew 50 meters in 1890, and 
was then financed for 6 years by the French Army, 
down to the definite success of the Wrights in 1903. 



The guesses of the early aviation enthusiasts, e. g., 
Baden-Powell, as to tyj)es, dates of success, speeds to 
be attained, and uses for flying, seem to have been 
about right, while as much cannot be said for the 
professional predictors, in the decade when airplanes 
were just beginning to fly. Fair forecasts of the 
present of aviation and its uses were made by the 
specially informed Kaempffert in 1911.'* 

Wireless telegraphy, or at least the transmission of 
electric shocks through a body of water, or by con- 
duction or induction, is nigh 2 centuries old, and was? 
practiced for communication by Morse in 1842. 
Wireless telephony by electromagnetic waves was ob- 
served in 1884.'" The familiar radio waves were 
suggested for conununication by Klihu Thompson in 
1889, the year after Hertz first detected them. Pres- 
ently, Crookes proposed the same. About that time 
Sylvanus Thompson offered for £10,000 to establish 
communication by induction with South Africa. So 
there has been no lack of suggestions for the fore- 
casters, long before wireless telegraphy burst on tlie 
world about 1900, and radiotelephony in 1922. 
Sutherland in 1900 proposed, as has been noted, radio 
control of clocks (an invention which various manu- 
facturers are racing to realize today) and radio- 
telephony. 

Telephony with Hertzian waves, our own radio, was 
first achieved by Fessenden in 1900, and on Christmas 
Eve of 1906 he broadcast music, and the next year 
speech clearly over 200 miles. DeForest at the same 
time broadcast Caruso singing, and the ethereal music 
of the telhaimonium. But in an article wherein Fes- 
senden discussed well the uses of point-to-point wire- 
less telephony, he did not mention broadcasting. 
There were very few others who thought of it mitil 
the opening of KDKA on election night, 1920." Dr. 
Frank Conrad had begun broadcasting soon after the 
war, leading to the establishment of this first regular 
station by Westinghouse, the furor over radio in 1922, 
and the fixing of program principles since followed. 
In fact we see that while radiotelephony was early 
foreseen and used, the possibility of its broadcast use 
was strangely overlooked by almost all people. Prob- 
ably it was because they could not imagine the receiv- 
ing apparatus as simple and cheap enough. It is hard 



"A summary volume entitled The Future of War in its technical, 
economic, and political relations, translated b.v R. C. Long, Was pub- 
lished in New York in 1899. 

"By Robida, artist and editor of La Caricature, in the same for 
Oct. 27, 1S.S3 : reviewed as the Jules Verne of Caricature, in New 
France. 2 : 107-110, June 1918. 

" Clement Ader : La Premiere ^tape de I'aviatinn militaire en France. 
1907. 



"^ Waldemar Kaempfffrt : The New .\rt of FlyinR. New York, April 
1911. The Future of Flying ; in Country Life, 20 : 2.3 ff., July 15. 1911. 
Aircraft and the Future ; in Outlook, 104 : 452— IGO, 191."!. 

'" Sir W. II. Preece : Signaling Through Space Without Wires ; in 
Smithson. Instn. An. Rept. for 1898, pp. 249^257, esp. 251. He later 
telephoned a mile by this means, and 3 miles by conduction, while 
wireless telephony by induction was realized by another contemporary. 
Cf. Sylvanus P. Thompson : Telegraphing Across Space ; in the same, 
pp. 235-246. Thompson in 1898 was certain that wireless communica- 
tion between England and America could be established either by 
conduction or by induction ; as to radio he was less sure. 

''Wireless Telephony; in Smithson. Instn. An. Rept. for 1908, pp. 
161-195. 



18 



National Resources Committee 



to find a propliet other tlian Steinmetz who mentioned 
it. But many prcdictetl tlie same result by other 
means, and there was commercial telephone broadcast- 
ing from 1889. 

Television has had a iinicli more common and early 
prediction, though not achieved till 1911. (But its 
slow form, picture telegraphy, dates from 1847.) 
Souvestre" .satirically foretold it in 1846, Senlecq" 
built an apparatus in 1877, only 4 years after the dis- 
cpvery that selenium varies in conductivity according 
to its illumination. Nipkow invented the scanning disk 
in 1882 and Fessenden designed a wireless system in 
1901.'» Plessner =" in 1892 wrote a book about the pos- 
sibilities of this and other future communication de- 
vices, proposing ways to combine television with the 
telephone for wired broadcasting, and to broadcast mo- 
tion pictures, and use sound-film, picture, and facsimile 
telegraphy. To the uses which he foresaw for television 
we can add little further today, except to show the 
animated cartoon and its scientific brothers, the ani- 
mated diagram and drawing. T. B. Russell, the pres- 
ent writer, and so many other forecasters have likewise 
talked of television, that it is hard to add anything 
new on the subject of this invention whose effective 
realization has scarce begun. 

From our survey of prediction in the four fields 
above as well as in others, the following conclusions 
may be drawn: 

1. War has been an unfavorable field for outside 
predictors, while transportation, communication, and 
optics seem unusually full of successes. 

2. Those midei-taking general prophecy have not 
written in the scientific manner. But no reason ap- 
pears why one shoidd not use science in estimating the 
future, as in anj' other business. A scientific worker 
would diligently study both the past and latest inven- 
tive developments, and comb all the best opinions and 
guesses about the future, in whatever language pub- 
lished.-^ Furthermore he would study, criticize, and 
improve the technique of jirediction, from the evidence 
of past success and failure in foresight. At least no 
reason appears against predictive science, except the 
cost of labor, and the difficulty of finding special stu- 
dents of this field who have some acquaintance with all 
branches of technology and their history, and with 
social science, and languages. 

3. Inventors are necessarily forecasters, but are 
rather mute aside from their own projects. 

4. Distinguished technical and scientific men. who 
choose to predict in their own general field, make the 
best seers of all. Yet they are liable to upsets from 



" Emilp Souvostre : Lp Monde tel qu'il sera (in the year 3000). 

"Sci. Am.. Mar. 8, 1S79: S. A. Sup.. II : 4382. 1881. C. Scnlccq : Le 
Teiectroscope, 1881. R. Fessendfn : The Deluded Civilization, p. 123 ff. 

=°Max Plessner: ein Bllck auf die grosseii Erflndungen dcs 20. Jahr- 
hundcrts. Perd. Diimmlers Verlagsbuchhandlung, Berlin, 1892. 92 pp. 



developments in outside lines, and from the tendency 
of the ordinary scientific or technical man to see little 
change ahead. For these are usually much impressed 
with the failure of all past inventors to achieve this 
and that, because of supposed scientific principles that 
bar the path. 

5. A broad view, considering every quarter from 
which change could come, is clearly called for. 

6. There seems to be a clear case for a committee of 
technical men uniting their labors, together with those 
of social scientists and students of prediction. This 
has been the basic assimiption underlying the arrange- 
ment of this present volume. 

Why and How Invention Is Predicted 

Having pointed out, fi-om experience, that inven- 
tions can be predicted and have been 15 and more years 
ahead of their effective use, it would seem wise to ex- 
amine the reasons why this is possible, as well as the 
methods of prediction that are and should be used. 

Inventions can first of all be predicted because they 
form trends, which can be projected into the future, 
extrapolated as the statistician says. An important 
invention, like the airplane or television, is not the 
product of one inventive act by one heroic, titular 
inventor at one date. Instead that great invention is 
an agglomeration of a vast number of detail inventions, 
like the thousands that have been added to the auto. 
Some are inventions no longer used, like the scanning 
disk that for 50 years built up television. The multi- 
plicity of these inventions brings in the law of large 
numbers, making possible statistics, and the predictive 
extrapolation of a curve. Just as a merchant whose 
figures show a steady growth of his business expects 
still more business in the future, so when we see 
patents piled ever thicker upon food syntheses, or see 
aircraft capable of landing in less and less space, or 
television screens growing larger and finer, we readily, 
confidently, and justifiedlj' project these trends forward 
a short M'ay into tlie future. This is the favorite 
method of the more technical writers, such as in the 
first article quoted, and appears to give the best results 
for short prognostications. 

As a corollarj- of this principle that an invention of 
importance is a multitudinous collection of little ones, 
we observe that the first start in a new line practically 
never brings immediate success; that many further in- 
ventions, many j^ears and decades, and many inventors 
must be added to the first before full success and wide 
use, bearing social consequences, will be attained. This 
makes much easier the range of prediction commonly 
attempte<l in this volume. One sets down for the fu- 
ture certain inventions already started. We have seen 
how television began to be invented in 1877, picture 
telegraphy about 88 years before it attained important 



Technological Trends 



19 



use, wireless 15 to 70 years, radiotclephony 23, the air- 
plane 70 or more and the talking picture 40 years, 
before they had any importance. 

Taking 19 inventions voted most useful, introduced 
in 1888-1913, the average-^ intervals were: Between 
when the invention was first merely thought of, and the 
first working model or patent, 176 years; thence to 
the first practical use, 24 years; to commercial success 
14 years; to important use 12 years, or say 50 years 
from the first serious work on the invention. Again, 
in the study of the most important inventions of the 
last generation before 1930, in Kecent Social Trends, a 
median lapse was found of 33 years, between the "con- 
ception date" corresponding to the second above, and 
the date of commercial success.-- Searching for excep- 
tions, it is hardly possible to find an invention which 
became important in less than 10 years from the time 
it or some fullj' equivalent substitute was worked on, 
and few did in less than 20. Here is then, an excellent 
rule of prediction for the present study — to predict 
only inventions already born, whose physical possibil- 
ity has therefore been demonstrated, but which are. 
usually not yet practical, and whose future significance 
is not commonly appi'eciated. 

This is very different from predicting future success 
for all present embryonic inventions. Their death 
rate is high — most will never be any good, like the 
eleven remarkable ship and engine projects of 1882, 
with which Admiral Preble closed his history, none of 
which has ever got anywhere, save for the modest suc- 
cess of the electric launch. 

It may be useful to point out that a great reason why 
inventions progress so slowly through their incubating 
stage is that our laws pi'ovide no effective support for 
inventors who make basic starts in new lines. Let us 
cite two typical fundamentally novel inventions. A 
voice-operated writing machine was proposed in detail 
by Plessner in 1892 and Fessenden in 1907. Flowers -' 
in 1916 made several such machines that would work 
after a fashion. But we hear of no other inventors 
trying to perfect the invention. Everybody's business 
is nobodj'^s business, when no one can justifiedly hope 
to be repaid for the labor which will undoubtedly be 
required in perfecting the invention. An inventor 
may advance an embryonic art most usef ullj' ; but he 
can hardly advance it to the point of wide practical 
use, and hence he receives no recompense at all. For 
another example, the helicopter is needed for vertical 
or hovering flight, and for landing on ships, roofs, and 
rough places. People have been working since Leo- 



nardo da Vinci on this costly device. Some have even 
been flown, but no one has received a dollar of recom- 
pense except occasionally from a philanthropist or a 
government. Pioneer invention in new basic lines 
needs noncommercial support exactly as pure science 
does. France does a little to support and guide such 
inventors, through its Office National des Recherches 
et Inventions, and we have a few foundations that do 
something, but the costly starting of fundamental in- 
ventions is virtually unassisted, hence very slow.-* 

The second basic reason why inventions can be pre- 
dicted is that they have causes. They are not just 
accidents, nor the inscrutable products of sporadic 
genius, but have abundant and clear causes in prior 
scientific and technological development. And they 
have social causes and retarding factors, both new 
and constant, of changed needs and opportunities, 
growth of technical education, of buying power, of 
capital, ]>atent and commercial systems, corporation 
laboratories, and what not.-° All such basic factors 
causing invention give means of predicting the same. 

The existence and overwhelming influence of causes 
for invention is proved by the frequency of duplicate 
invention, where the same idea is hatched by different 
minds independently about the same time. Pi-ofessor 
Ogburn and Dr. Thomas have drawn up a list of 40 
such duplicated inventions and 108 discoveries.-" 
Striking proof is offered by American patent office 
experience in that about half of all inventions that 
2)ass the already advanced stage of patent applica- 
tion are thereafter dropped, mainly because of the dis- 
covery of prior inventors, not to mention the number 
dropped for this reason at earlier stages. Inventors 
are constantly advised to keep proofs of their priority, 
their dates of conception. Dr. Stern has well demon- 
strated the abundance of duplicate discovery in medi- 
cine.^' And certainly the observations of duplicate in- 
vention would be much more numerous than they are, 
did not the published fact that an invention is made, 
prevent others from thinking up the same thing. It 
is only where the two inventors worked at almost the 
same time, or in remote isolation from each other, 
that we ever hear of the invention as being duplicated. 

Having thus shown by the obsei-ved and potential 
frequency of duplicate invention that invention has 
widespread causes, not confined to the genius or luck 
of a single, indispensable inventor, it remains to show 
how this wide, causative base can be used for the pre- 
diction of an invention. And this we have not learned 
to do scientifically. The influences from need and pos- 



='GilfiIIan: Sociology of Invention, p. 96, from Sci. Am. 109:352. 
See note 24. 

== Recent Social Trends in the United States. 1:16,3. 

-"John B. riowers' inventions are desciibed in Sci. Am.. Feb. 12. 1916, 
p. 174 : and Fessendeu's cited in R. Fessenden : The Deluged Civilization, 
p. 134. 



=•" S. C. Gilflllan : The Sociology of Invention. Follett Pub. Co., Chi- 
cago, .1935 ; 203 pp. Ch. 5, The Hard Starting of Fundamental Inven- 
tions. 

=" S. C. Gilflllan : The Sociology of Invention. 

=" William F. Ogburn : Social Change, pt. 2, ch. 5. 

" Bernhard Stern : Social Factors in Medical Progress, 1927. 



20 



National Resources Committee 



sibility that point to a comino; invention are so ex- 
ceedingly varied in nature that it is difficult to know 
liow to generalize about them. But everyone knows 
how to use them, how to reason from such bases. We 
say that a given situation would naturally produce a 
certain adaptive step, either at once, or after a certain 
cultural lag or delay. 

For instance, we would predict the early arrival, 
probably within 5 or 10 years, of a stereoscopic sound 
effect or auditory perspective, in the radio and perhaps 
in plionographs and talking i)icturcs, from the follow- 
in"- reasoning: A need has long existed for a means 
of varying the direction from which sound comes, so 
as to give an impression of solid space, and to facil- 
itate understanding. This need has been increased 
by the talking picture, the loud speaker for the deaf, 
the flying and detection of airplanes in fog, and 
presently and especially, by radio television plays. 
There are established trends toward better and more 
complicated acoustical ai)paratus, and a rapid growth 
of acoustical science, and of devices for aviation and 
the deaf. Fairly simple means of achieving stereo- 
scopic sound are readily imagined, and have already 
been built. The resistances to popularizing and per- 
fecting the invention are a small cost, met by a grow- 
ing income; unfamiliarity and complexity, mot by 
growing popular knowledge of physics and especially 
acoustics. There are also the difficulty of making 
over old radio sets, etc., met by the apju-oaching need 
to replace them anyway for purposes of television and 
perhaps other innovations, the need of standard- 
ization met by the capacity of our interstate laws, and 
the high degree of patent monopoly in these indus- 
tries. In short the track is clear for this invention. 

One may note that in the above reasoning use has 
been made of unchanging facts, such as knowledge of 
magnetism; recently changed facts, such as the start- 
ing of the invention in question; assumed future 
events, as the coming of television; numerous trends, 
as toward more acoustical knowledge ; influences from 
diverse fields — deafness, aviation and war; obstruc- 
tions; and oi)portunities. 

This complex type of prediction based on reasoning 
as to causation, as well as on extrapolation of various 
trends, is evidently far more complicated than the 
empirical type of prediction discussed before, based 
simply on the exti-apolation of one observed trend. 
Comjilication makes it much the less reliable, for the 
short range, although the evidence may be very strong, 
as for stereoscopic sound. But the empirical trend 
method maj' be inapplicable, from the absence of any 
direct trend. In the present case, e. g., we may not 
know that the invention has been put to use at all. so 
could not establish any trend of usage. 



For a longer range forecasting the complex type may 
be nuicii better than the simple projection of a single 
trend. For any curve becomes more and more un- 
certain the farther it is extrapolated into the future, 
for geometric reasons; and trends seemingly secure, 
may be upset by interference from outside. For ex- 
ample, in 19l;j the designing of bigger and bigger 
liners seemed a well established and secure prediction, 
yet because of progress in aviation and railways there 
was predicted a cessation of the trend about 1929. 
The prediction has proved to be partially correct, as 
explained in the previous section. 

If the inferences from numerous trends and other 
facts converge to the same conclusion, one may be more 
confident one is right. If the indications be somewhat 
contradictory we must express doubt, or make our pre- 
diction conditional, or make none, while still perhaps 
2)redicting social ell'ects, for reasons given hereafter. 

Difficulties of Prediction 

The most persistent danger, in the perilous business 
of forecasting, is what might be called a third regular 
method of 2>rediction, to wit, sheer optimism. "Have 
faith, believe that what is gootl shall come to pass, 
and it shall be so" is offered us as a more or less 
religious motto, not only for the individual, but for 
society. And as Caesar long ago remarked, for the 
most part what men desire they believe to be easy. 
Man's mind normally works optimistically, save when 
he is out of sorts. A vast deal of Utopian prophesy- 
ing of the fine days to come, like Bellamy's Looking 
Backward, has been little more than optimism, future 
music. And even the best of prophets are continually 
beset by wishful thinking, predicting much more of 
good than of evil, partly because tlieir readers will 
wish to hear of pleasant things. We need wireless 
power, or popular enlightenment, or rational costume, 
therefore some inventions will bring them. This 
method of prophecy is most unreliable ; yet it has often 
produced good single predictions, since these were 
made in an age of advancing civilization, and what 
the predictor desired, say faster airplanes, or color 
movies, many inventors and their backers also wanted, 
and by setting themselves to discover it, satisfied at 
least two conditions for success — effort, with a re- 
ceptive market. 

Another variety of wishfid thinking is overlooking 
the fact that the social basis for invention provides 
obstacles to it as well as incitements and facilities. 
There are all the resistances discussed in the accom- 
panying papers against making an invention or accept- 
ing it after it is made. 

Wliile there are numerous resistances on grounds 
other than econimiics, the question of how technolog- 



Technological Trends 



21 



ical cliaii<j;os are to be paid for is a preemiiipiit ono. 
Inventions niaj' be blocked not 01U3' because they de- 
valuate the capital and knowledge directly concerned 
in that line, but also because they devaluate the acces- 
sory capital. Thus trains and tracks are tied tojrether, 
so there is no future for the monorail car nor any other 
device that would call for rebuilding; our railroads, and 
even electrification is Iiekl back by the great costs in- 
volved. Simply faster trains call for track improve- 
ments that cannot well be provided, so sjieeding can be 
accepted only if the train can be nuide uuich lighter. 

Three other aspects of the world into which inven- 
tions must fit if accepted are tastes, customs, and laws, 
all very resistant to called-for changes. The sodium 
and mercury lamps are very efficient, but people don't 
like their respective yellow and blue lights. The tel- 
harmoniiun can play more beautiful music than was 
ever heard before, in the just intonation instead of the 
false, tempered intonation which all present instru- 
ments use by necessity. But to make the best use of 
the telharmonium will call for recomposing our music. 
Meals from central kitchens, perhaps delivered at high 
speed by pneumatic tubes which could serve many 
other purposes too, would eliminate much toil. But 
people like to do things their own way, which is an old 
way, so this prediction made in 1912 shows little prog- 
ress toward fulfillment. The lie detector, universal fin- 
gerprinting, and various psychological and psychiatric 
discoveries, would be wonderful helps in the prevention 
of crime and the rehabilitation or permanent i-emoval 
of criminals. But all such changes run up against the 
conservatism of the law. Lawyers are apt to be con- 
servative, objecting to changes not only when they 
ju-ejudice a client, but l)y natural tendency because their 
professional business is to interpret the law as it stands. 

Predictors are often right that an invention can and 
will be made and will also be appreciated, but they 
still go wrong as to when, because they are too opti- 
mistic as to the reductions of cost, or of complexity. 
Color photography is a most attractive and valuable 
art that has existed for three-quarters of a century, 
and still it is little used except by a few professionals. 
The home talking picture, long predicted, is only be- 
ginning to find many buj'ers who are willing to pay 
its cost. The substitute means of entertainment or in- 
struction are so simply and cheaply available — ^books, 
pictures, and the theater. 

Advertisements tell us we can jiick up our telephone 
and talk across the ocean to any subscriber in Hun- 
gary or Java, but for practical purposes that is impos- 
sible, because we have not the money, language, nor 
any need to make such calls. At any rate, haixUy one 
in a million has, so the invention of transoceanic teleph- 
ony to such countries does not yet exist as a factor of 
influence. 



The dales of future inventions or of their use are in- 
deed difficult to predict, because they depend on the 
total balance of so many separate considerations of 
technical difficulties, cost, usefulness, and the progress 
of substitutes. The stereoscopic and full-color home 
talking picture, with auditory perspective, could bo 
made today and will surelj' come; but when will it be 
important? 

The question is usually dodged by leaving the pre- 
diction dateless. But in a study like the present one, 
which aims at guidance for {)ractical measures to meet 
impending situations, dating cannot be dodged. One 
may, however, get along with much uncertainty of 
dating,, in two ways. First, if we know what to expect 
some time within the next generation, say the destruc- 
tion of a certain trade, or the airplane bringing dis- 
eases in 18 hours from Africa, we nuiy be prepared to 
take immediate practical steps whenever the first defi- 
nite dating becomes possible, the better because we 
were predictively prepared beforehand. Secondly, we 
may be quite wrong in our prediction that such air- 
planes will be practical and common in 1945, and still 
be right in what essentially matters of our prediction, 
viz., that in 1945 yellow fever or other diseases will be 
brought amongst us from Africa and points east and 
west, by either airplanes, airships, helicopters, rockets, 
or some other means of fast traffic. 

When Thurston, a good historian-engineer, pre- 
dicted in 1893 that the speeds of the then 5-day liner 
and 20-hour New Yoi-k-Chicago train would be doubled 
in the next generation, he was wrong — the ships sped 
hardly faster, and those fastest trains made the trip 
in the same time in 1923. But if he had made his 
prophecy more general by saying that through various 
means, traffic speeds woukl increase markedly, he 
would have been right, through the speeding up of the 
slow trains and shijxs and through the auto and air- 
2)lane. We shall speak later of this princiijle of func- 
tionally equivalent invention, which is so helpful in 
predicting the consequences of invention. 

Another error of wishful origin is to predict one's own 
invention — or rather a mere basic idea of how some- 
thing can be done. It rarely happens that such ideas 
have value, or ever are followed with important use. 

The last conspicuous source of error in prediction is 
sheer ignorance of the latest advances in the sciences 
and arts involved. This has been avoided in the pres- 
ent volume, so far as time has allowed, by obtaining 
the collaboratio7i of able scientists, and by consulting 
technical literature on the various points as well as 
the better recent predictive writings, of which a 
bibliography is appended.^' 



^ In addition to the earlier writers cited in our first section (Note 
1 ff.). the following recent writings containing numerous predictions 
of invention seem most worthy of citation : 



22 

Predicting the Effects of an Invention 

Since the elfects follow after the invention, the 
dillieiilties of predicting them might seem to be nml- 
tiplied, since one must risk first the errors in fore- 
seeing the invention, and tlicn the errors in forecasting 
its consequences. However, a powerful principle comes 
to one's aid, making it easier to predict the effects 
tlian the inventions themselves, tlie principle, namely, 
of functionally equivalent invention.-"^ 

Inventions are not only duplicated very often by 
identical solutions arrived at by different men about 
the same time, as noted above, but inventions are also 
paralleled by otlier, equivalent devices to the same 
end or effect, on other pi-inciples, perhaps utterly 
different principles, but coming into use around the 
same time. They promise jointly, though not singly, 
the effects which would naturally flow from such a 
function. If one invention fails to arrive and bring 
the effect, some otlier or others will. For instance, 
there are half a dozen recent means of geophysical 
prospecting — examining what is underground without 
sinking shaft or bore hole, nor remaining content with 
surface indications. 



Footnote 2S — Coniinuod. 

Biibson. R. W. : Air Flivvprs and the Future; and 20 Ways to Make a 
Million; in Forum. 81:157-164 and 277-281. 1029. 

Fonrnior d'Albe. E. E. : Quo Vadinuis. Some Glimpses of the Future, 
nultiin's Today and Tomorrow ser., 1925. 100 Years Hence. 

Fuller, Col. .1 F. C. : Pegasus ; or Problems of Transportation. Today 
and T. ser.. 1926. 

F^irnas, C. C. : The Next Hundred Year."!. 19.35. 

Haldane. J. B. S. : Chemistry and Peace ; in Atl. Mo.. 131 : 1-18. 
1925. 

If You Were Alive in 212S A. P.; in Century. 106: 519-566. 

(Equivalent to his Daedulus. or Science and the Future.) 

Hale. Wm. J. : Chemistry Triumphant. 1932. 

IIonninKcr. A. B. : Predictions for 2026. Rev'd in Sci. and Inv., 
May 1927. p. 9. 

Ilubhard. Hen. D. : The Motion Pictures of Tomorrow ; and Wonder- 
lands of Tomorrow. Mimeographed addresses, 1921 and 1926. 

Leonard. .1. N. : Tools of Tomorrow. 1935. 

LIddeli Hart. Capt. B. H. : Paris, or the Future of War. Today and 
T. ser., 1925. 

Low, Alfred M. : The Future. I.rf>ndon and New York, 1925. 202 pp. 

Low. Archibald JI. : Wireless Possibilities. Today and T. ser.. 1924. 

:Maurois, .\ndr6 : The Formidable Future : in Liv. .\ge. 332 : 732-734, 
1927. 

Myers. Oustavus : How Inventions are ChanEing the Course of Busi- 
ness and Industry ; in Mag. of Wall St., 41 : GG9 ff., 1928. 

Parsons, noyd W. : Facts and Fancies — New Industries, a National 
Remedy ; in Gas Age Rec.,05 : II : 731 (T., 1930. 

Now Things and Better Ones; in .Sat. Eve. Post, Sept. 18, 1926, 

pp. 12 ff. .Vlso Science and Everyday Lite ; in Feb. 0, pp. 14 ff. 

Popular Jlechanlcs, 63 : 362-367, 1935. Do Prophecies About Inven- 
tions Come True? A symposium. 

Popular Sci. Mc, May 1922, pp. 21. 22, and 26-28. A symposium of 
predictors of invention. 

Russell. Bertrand : Icarus, or the Future of Science, Today and T. 
Bcr., 1924. 

Stearns. Myron M. : (What) Babies Born Today May See; in Pop. 
Sci. Mo.. Ill : 21, 22, 106. October 1927. 

Stine, C. M. A.: Change Rules the Rails; in Vital Speeches of the 
Day, Mar. 9, 19.36. pp. 346-351. 

Whitney, W. R: What Won't They Do Next? in .Vmer. Mag., August 
1930. 

Willielm, Donald : Tomorrow's Gadgets ; in New Outlook. February 
1934, 1,'<-17. 

'"Gilflllan (see note 24), pp. 137-148 on equivalent invention. 



National Resources Committee 

Sixteen different means of flying have been experi- 
mented with in recent years, of which the airplane, 
airship, and glider are the three most familiar. 

The great bogey of flight, fog. has recently beei. or 
may soon be conquered by some of the 2;") known 
means. There are means contained within the air- 
craft itself: 

Training the pilot, especially to My by the feel of 
his sitting. 

Instruments to sliow the directions and speed of 
flight by sight. 

And by binaural hearing. 

The sonic altimeter, for learning height above the 
ground, to 4 feet. 

Seeing the ground or the sun by infra-red light, 
tiirough the electron telescope just invented by 
Zworykin. 

Trailing a television transmitter in clear air far 
below the plane. 

Flying high to surmount clouds. 
Ability to land gently on any ground or water. 
Plane designed lor automatic stability and no stall- 
ing. 

Gyro pilot. 

There are also means involving cooperation (or 
sometimes hostility) from the ground: 
Moduiated-light landing beacon. 
Sound-ranging, from sounds emitted at grouiul sta- 
tions. 

Shooting smoke bombs up above the fog. 
Induction guide cable in the grouiul. 
Radio messages or signals. 
Radio direction finder of orilinaiy type. 
Radio control. 

Radio beam, ordinary straight. 

Radio beams adapted to lead the pilot in a proper 
cm-ved path for landing. 

Locating aircraft from the grouiul by their sound, 
or by radio ranging, from signals or the sparking of 
the engine, or by the heat of the exhaust sending infra- 
red I'ays. 

Dispelling fog by calcium chloriile droplets, or by 
projected electric heat, or by spraying electrified sand. 
With all these 25 different means apparently avail- 
able for coiujuering fog, we may quite confidently 
predict that by some means or other fog will be ef- 
fectively overcome for aviators soon. We may be con- 
fident even though several of the 2.5 means should turn 
out to be wortliless, and no others be added by future 
invention in this now very active field. And hence 
we have a firm basis for predicting the social effects 
of aviation without danger from fog. 

But furthermore, conquering fog and determining 
the general type of aircraft are only two of many con- 



Technological Trends 



23 



siderations controlling future aviation, as to its safety, 
regularity, speed, popularity, and utilitj-. The total 
of inventions and other influences making for the prog- 
ress of aviation is so vastly numerous that we might 
give up trying to appraise them separately, and simply 
consider that they are added, subtracted, and multi- 
plied together to make up the observed total progress 
of aviation in the past. This total of flight history, 
graphed as ascending curves measuring various achieve- 
ments, may be simply extrapolated a few years into 
the future, to show us the coming state of aviation 
year by year, without understanding being necessi- 
tated of how or why it will be so. On such predic- 
tion (and probably on any other kind available) our 
Government staked half a billion dollars, in building 
the Panama Canal with locks 1,000 by 110 by 41 feet, 
larger than any ship afloat in 1907. But this was 
justified by the evolution of ships during the past 30 
years and by their expected development. 

Even when we add together all the inventions touch- 
ing aviation, including engines, better alloys, ground 
equipment, meteorological discoveries, etc., we have 
still not assembled the total inventive base on which 
should be erected our social predictions. Aviation's 



expected effects of more and faster travel, mail and 
express carriage, encouraging wider organization of 
businesses and Federal functions, more national uni- 
formity of interests, customs and sentiments, more in- 
ternational contacts similarly, and a faster tempo of 
life — all are identical with some of the effects expected 
from faster trains, autos, ships, radio, television, and 
most of the other inventions in or affecting transporta- 
tion and communication. 

This again eidarged base of possible instruments 
makes the prediction of the social influences still more 
certain. The principle of functionally equivalent in- 
vention entails that the wider one's definition of an in- 
vention, or field of invention, the more certain, fore- 
seeable and measurable become the social effects. And 
it is the widest definitions that matter most — what 
Ijroduces the total effect, the great effect that concerns 
people and should be appropriately met. So clear, in- 
deed, are these general effects to be expected from 
technology, that they are largely well-known already. 
The i^urposa of this volume is, therefore, not so much 
to dwell on them, as on the somewhat narrower, more 
specific effects, and on inventions, as of aviation, tele- 
vision, and often more closelj' limited inventions. 



III. SOCIAL EFFECTS OF INVENTIONS 

By S. C. Gilfillan 



Manufacturing and Labor 

The chapters of part three discuss, in more or less 
ehiborate detail, many inventions which are likeh* to 
alter manufacturing processes and the utilization of 
labor in the immediate future. To attempt here a com- 
prehensive forecast of tluMiianifold economic and social 
aspects of these dramatic developments is impossible, 
because of the hazards of such forecasts and because 
limitations of space pr(>clu(le the introduction of ade- 
(juate supporting details. Only a few basic develop- 
ments will be cited, those that affect wide reaches of 
manufacturing. 

Indirectly, the social and ecuuomic effects of tech- 
nological changes in manufacturing processes touch 
every jihase of human life. Directly, the effects of a 
particular invention in manufacturing may be pri- 
marily in its saving of labor, in its saving of capital, 
in its improvement of working conditions, in its clieap- 
ening of the product and increase of consumption, in 
its improvement of the product, or in its creation of a 
new kind of goods. Some inventions in manufacturing 
may liave most or all of these effects combined; other 
inventions may have only one or two of these effects. 

The effect of an invention wliii'li ,'^eenis to be most in 
people's minds is that of displacing labor. The usual 
fdiinuia lor tlie origin of labor-saving inventions is as 
follows: First, a job is divided up among many work- 
men, and the specialized tasks of some become so 
simple and monotonous, like pushing a lever or feeding 
a machine, that, while efficiency is increased, crafts- 
mansliip is destro_yed. Xext, the task having become 
so simple, it is comparatively easy to invent a me- 
chanical device to do it instead, and to do it better and 
far faster, with mere supervision by a workman. 
Hence, the more monotonous a job has become, the 
closer it has been brought to abolition. In good times 
the disjilaced worker, especially of iniskilled or semi- 
skilled, normally finds another simple job. the maiui- 
facturer sells more cheaply, and the consumer has 
more to spend for other tilings. 

The monotonous jobs displaced by machines in the 
past have been those that could be entirely controlled 
by other perceiving senses than seeing. Machines could 
duplicate man's power to feel form, size, weight, 
temperature, pressure, etc., but no machine could see. 
A host of simjile jobs like candling eggs, that re- 
quired seeing, still have to be done by men instead of 
machines, however monotonous. Therefore, the de- 
velopment of a device which can see, namely, the 
photoelectric cell, carries with it a vast range of future 
24 



economic effects. The photoelectric cell is doing an in- 
creasing number of tasks better than the most keen- 
eyed, skillful, faitiiful, and tireless workman. And it 
brings electrical action on what it sees, instantly, at 
any distance, and 24 hours a day if desired. The 
photoelectric cell has been set already to a remarkable 
variety of tasks (part three, ch. VII). It makes a 
l)articularly good combination with the vacuum tube 
and various automatic registering and controlling de- 
vices, jnaking possible continuous operation and dis- 
tant control. It seems reasonable to expect a rapid 
and wide application of this mechanism, with the re- 
sults of ending many a dull job, speeding manufacture, 
impro\ing (piality, and encouraging multiple shifts 
and processes. Its use will probably have more capi- 
tal than is needed for the new a]iparatus. The saving 
of labor to the manufacturer shouUl be even greater. 

Not only can machines see; they can also hear. The 
implications of the televox and other acoustical equip- 
ment which might be called the "electric ear" are, how- 
ever, probably nuich less varied and important than 
tluise of the photoelectric cell. Moreover, nuich of the 
acoustical development is too near the laboratory to 
justify one forecasting effects with the same confidence 
as in the case of the "electric eye." Yet the new prin- 
ciple is a dramatic one. Sounds can be siftetl out and 
selectively heaid by novel devices, so that a door has 
been fitted to open only to the words "Open Sesame", 
and machinery to stoji on "hearing" the cry "Help." 
Televox exemplifies another idea likely to have exten- 
sion, that of using ordinary telephone lines to convey 
sounds which can actuate distant mechanisms. 

It seems likely that such electrical ears and voices 
frequently will fit well into such complexes as have 
been inilicated for the electric eye. They will save 
employment of observei-s at scattered posts, and listen 
for jiarticular sounds which indicate how a process 
is going, or for sound signals. They will actuate ap- 
propriate controls, promote safety, give directions, 
and pcrhajis even distinguish individuals, accomplish- 
ments all demonstrated today. Again, there should 
result much reduction of monotonous jobs, and an in- 
creased demand for electricians, inspectors, and skilled 
mechanics instead of mere operatives. 

Four characteristic trends of modern manufacturing, 
(1) toward continuous processes, (2) automatic opera- 
tion, (3) use of registering devices, and (4) of con- 
trolling devices are conspicuous.^" The last two may 



" Sec Technology and the Cliemic.il nidustrics. Pt. Throe. Ch. VI. 



Technological Trends 



25 



embody the new electric eye or ear or only the older 
mechanical "senses." Or they may automatically 
make chemical tests, such as sampling furnace gas 
every few minutes for its proportion of carbon dioxide, 
to enable eflicient and smokeless combust ion, or measur- 
ing acidity, or chemical content by an automatic 
spectrophotometer. Such controls serve to improve 
the product as much as to save labor. One must be 
cautious in forecasts, however, and remember that 
mere technical possibility does not in itself insure 
future economic usefulness. 

Timing devices increasingly used, the prerecording 
oscillograph, and numerous other machines can almost 
parallel powers of the human mind." It appears tliat 
no limit can be set to the work which might be taken 
over by machinery, although the rule holds that it is 
the most simple and most monotonous tasks, whether 
physical or mental, that are the most readily replace- 
able through invention. While such tasks are being 
mechanized, new monotonous tasks are being created, 
through subdivision of old jobs who.se product has be- 
come available for larger scale production. 

Amid all the diversity of manufacturing operations, 
an invention with wide and increasing use is welding, 
by three basic methods, as well as the promising devel- 
opment of brazing. Tlie results affect much more than 
just the direct engineering economy. The more skilled 
trade of welder replaces that of riveter. The fearful 
noise of riveting is eliminated. Metal is economized, 
and capital is further saved through assembly sav- 
ings and the greater durability of welded products. 
Longer life, by diminishing replacement, tends to slow 
up invention. Welding, more than riveting, but less 
than casting, fosters neatness of form, curves, stream- 
lining, and the new art style of metal architecture. It 
helps especially in the manufacture of airplanes, auto- 
mobiles, high-speed trains and many other devices, 
mostly in transportation that especially need lightness, 
trimness, or permanently tight joints. Welded ships 
are being built. The shipbuilding trades of riveter and 
caulker may eventually become obsolete. By related 
devices, nuichining is being reduced by "flame machin- 
ing" with the oxyacetylene torch, and metal is being 
cut by the electric arc cutting saw. 

The work of machining is being speeded to a revolu- 
tionary degree by new, super-hard alloys for cutting 
tools. Machining is being further reduced by drop 
forging, and by the introduction of plastics, which 
reach final form and finish in the mold, and may en- 
close metal parts. New metals and alloys are being 
added, and the number of possible combinations of ele- 
ments, proportions, and treatments increases much 
faster than the number of usable metals. Such prog- 



" See Technology and the Electrical Goods Industry by Cruse, Pt. 
Three, Ch. VII. 



ress speeds up the obsolescence of machinery and there- 
fore may encourage in some cases the construction of 
machinery with less rather tlum greater durability. 
Another result is that the scrap-metal supply, which 
has become .so important that it now contributes the 
larger i)art of some metals, is becoming corrui)tetl with 
alloying metals. These elements are beneficial for 
many uses, but they disturb the uniformity of product 
always striven for today, or require expensive detection 
and lemoval or proper distribution. 

The growth of manufacturing industries is de- 
pendent to a large extent on the production of cheap 
power. The various inventions which combine to make 
power show many directions of progressing economy. 
There are also increasing tendencies for the power to 
be electrical, or from internal combustion engines, and 
for heating to be increasingly furnished by exhaust 
steam (at rising pressures) from large electrical gen- 
erating plants. Other developments still in the ex- 
perimental stage indicate that much higher thermal 
efficiencies than at present will be general before nuiny 
years. 

Still cheaper power is not likely to be of increasing 
importance in the future in encouraging the use of 
further ordinary machinery. The wholesale power 
cost is already so low that the main obstacles to the 
introduction of new power machinery are other fac- 
tors — the costs of devising, building, and perfecting 
the new machinery and its housing, and difficulties of 
selling the increased production. But important in- 
creases in power use may be expected in fields in which, 
power or heat costs are a main factor. Such are elec- 
tro-chemistry, alumiiuim and magnesium production, 
air reduction, air conditioning, large-scale lighting and 
ultraviolet radiation, fast navigation, and aviation. 
Further increased u.se of cheapened electricity may like- 
wise be expected in lines in which electricity has ready 
rivals, especially for heating industrial and other 
equipment and occasional room warming. With all 
increased uses of electricity will come more inventions 
on the ways to use it. Particularly notable may be 
the fostering of air conditioning, steep-flight aircraft, 
ferrous, aluminum, and magnesium alloys, nitrog- 
enous fertilizers, copper, and the whole strong-current 
electric industry. 

A socially important influence of the increased use 
of electricity, especially as power plants tend to be 
concentrated into great generating stations often out- 
side the city, is to reduce the sooty smoke in cities. The 
sulphur dioxide in coal smoke, however, which eats im- 
partially clothes and paper, throats, buildings, and 
vegetation, is not removed by the better burning in 
large furnaces, but only by costly smoke purification, 
or removal of the plant. Numerous remedies, especi- 
ally tlie fast-growing domestic mechanical stoker, are 



26 



National Resources Committee 



available to i-educe greatly the various evils of smoke, 
but require social enforccMiient. For smoke always 
hurts the community more than it hurts the owner 
of the chimney. 

Among important technological improvements in 
the manufacturing processes are those which alter the 
working conditions of labor, although they may or 
may not replace labor. Two examples of such de- 
velopments which have implications for the future are 
inventions pertaining to lighting and air-conditioning 
in factories. The increasing efficiency and economy 
of artificial light encourage the trend toward the use 
of night shifts — a trend which, of course, was inter- 
rupted during the depression. Transportation, print- 
ing, mining, and cliemical and metallurgical works 
have long used multiple shifts, thus getting double 
or treble the use out of their billions of capital. The 
stream of new mechanical inventions, which hasten 
the obsolescence of machinery in manufacturing gen- 
erally, encourages more intensive working than before 
in order to wear out equipment before it is obsolete. 
Transition to the two- or three-shift system is fre- 
quently retarded because workers object to the night 
shift, involving social isolation, difficulties of sleep, 
and, for women employees, housekeeping fatigues, 
while employers have found night work less efficient. 
Some of these difficulties would be lessened as night 
work became more general and as social institutions 
made adjustments to the new conditions. 

Air conditioning, which was first applied in factories 
for the benefit of the goods, is likely to be extended 
gradually as it becomes cheaper and as more thought 
is given to the efficiency and comfort of the worker. 
With air conditioning also will come better insulation 
against noise. 

One concern of manufacturing with invention has 
come into the public and congressional eye of late. 
namely, patent pooling.^- Particularly when invention 
starts a new industry, the situation is apt to arise 
where patents, some only desirable, some indispensable, 
are scattered among numerous companies, with the 
result that none should i)ractice the new art without the 
consent of others. Usually there ensues a protracted 
and costly series of lawsuits over patents. Finally, 
to end this obstruction and enable production to go 
aheail unhampered, using all the best ideas, either 
a pooling of patents is agreed to, or one company ob- 
tains a monopoly of all the essential patents. Pools 
have developed from time to time in the American 
airplane, automobile, solid rubber tire, movie, talking 



pictiH'e, incandescent lanq). bicycle, coaster brake, sew- 
ing machine, slioe macliinery, radio, vacuiun tube, and 
several other industries. ^^ Even in the old indus- 
tries, the constant arrival of new inventions keeps 
in the foreground the problem of the patent pool. 
But we are most strongly reminded of it by the 
l)rospect of new industries, based on aviation, tele- 
vision, j)hototelegraphy. air conditioning, the pre- 
fabricated house, nuignesium, the cotton picker, and 
many other inventions discussed in this volume. 
Tliere is the question of whether complete freedom 
of patent ownership should prevail in these coming 
industries and others — including the freedom of each 
important j)atentee to balk the others and fight ad 
lihitmn in the courts, and the freedom to organize 
private patent pools, such as have sometimes proved 
f)ppressive and sometimes very helpful — or whether 
some attempt will be made to prevent all patent 
pools, or to restrict or regulate them in the public 
interest. The fimdamcntal problem of the working 
of our social institutions for eliciting, paying for, and 
securing early and wide use of desirable inventions 
has never been completely examined. It is a problem 
calling for a national policy.^' 

Travel and Fast Transport 

Technological changes in passenger transportation 
usually have more direct and obvious effects on the 
general public than changes in the mamifacture of 
goods, especially of producers goods. Inventions in 
manufacturing, even when ultimately revolutionary, 
usually touch the general public indirectly and in a 
gradually diffusive and pervasive form. 

The details of various inventions in the field of 
transj)ortation are treated elsewhere.'' Since a rigid 
selection is necessary for the jjresent section, the ef- 
fects of changes in slow traffic, as in most freight, will 
not be considered. The discussion here is limited to 
a few of the future social and economic consequences 
of significant technological developments of passenger 
travel and fast transport of goods. 

The future of air transport is a happy hunting 
giound of romancers and it is indeed difficult to avoid 
the temptation to unleash the imagination with little 
reference to present-day realizations. Forecasts writ- 
ten 20 years ago in a spirit of scientific caution. 



* Pooling of Patent.i. hearings before the Committee on Patents. 
House of Representatives. 74th Cong., on H. R. 452.'? (Chairman 
Sirovlch's bill for recording patent pooling agreements). 4 vols., 
19.35-30. Also The Storm over Patent Pools ; Business Week. Oct. 26. 
1935, p. 30; and Dec. 28. 



" Patent pools have existed also in the cordage, harrow, wind stacker, 
bath tub. oil crackinp. seeded raisin, and cigarette Industries, according 
to the authorlt.v of Dr. Warren M Persons and F. L. Vaughan : Kcon. 
of Our Pat. S.vstem. p. 169 ; Wni. Beard : Govt, and Technoiogj-, pp. 
453 tU and the hearings noted above. 

" Cf. author's Sociology of Invention, ch. VI, The Decline of Patent- 
ing, and Recommendations. A commission of inquiry is proposed on 
pp. 122-130. Also science advisory 1 onrd : Kepurt of the committee on 
relation of patent system to stimulation of new industries; Washington 
1935. F. L. Vauchan : Economy of our Patent System, 1925 ; T. II. Low. 
The Inventor. December 1935. 

•» See Osgood's chapter on Technology and Transportation, 



Technological Trends 



27 



seem stupidly unimiifiinative today- Almost any- 
thing that can l)e written today in the same spirit runs 
the similar risk of appearing stodgy when read in 
1956. There appears some justification, therefore, for 
using guardedly a little imagination, even though not 
all of the more conservative aircraft engineers of to- 
day would accept the conclusions. On the timing of 
these inventions especially, we nuiy err. But certain 
previsions seem realizable witli a lii^h degree of ])rob- 
ability, though it is vei'j' hard to say whether they will 
take place in 10 years or 40. 

For fast transport of passengers, mail, and express 
over long distances, aviation is, of course, tiie pre- 
eminent field of anticipation. Superoxygenation of 
the air, already practiced in some passenger planes, 
or pressure cabins, can make up for thin air in high 
altitudes. Long distance fiights nuiy be considerably 
helped by modifying the gasoline or by use of Diesel 
engines as in German trans-Atlantic planes. Recipro- 
cating and turbine steam engines are also being fur- 
ther improved. The Diesel engine is heaviei- than the 
gasoline one, and therefore less suitable for short 
fiights; but its obtaining 30% instead of 20% of the 
energy of the fuel may some day favor it for long 
flights, as soon as its reliability is assured. Its safety 
against fire adds to its advantages. 

For flj'ing on regular and year-round schedules 
across storniy and fog-bound polar and temperate re- 
gions, better navigating instruments will be needed 
than are now available. But at the present rate of 
progress thej' should soon be supplied, and planes will 
be large enough to carry them easily. Already in- 
vented are the radio guidance and control and the 
automatic gyro stabilizer and pilot, that needs no 
eyes and makes no mistakes about flying angle. Other 
means of combatting fog, 25 in all, have been pro- 
posed. Better organization of weather and radio serv- 
ice, with automatically reporting radio polar and 
ocean stations (pt. three, ch. I) and higher flight possi- 
bilities, should make it possible to dodge storms. The 
conquest of ice formation is progressing. Multiple 
engines make forced landings because of engine 
trouble very rare. 

In anticipation of air and radio needs, all over the 
world the nations are seeing a new importance in little, 
unproductive, forgotten islands, like Clipperton 
Island, disputed recently by France and Mexico, be- 
tween Hawaii and the Panama Canal; and like How- 
land, Baker, and Jarvis, south of Hawaii, to which we 
have recently reaffirmed our sovereignty. If there are 
other islands or reefs unoccupied and unclaimed, whose 
foreign occupancy in the future might become disad- 
vantageous to us, it would be possible for the United 
States to occupy them with crewless radio stations. 
These stations, incidentally, could continually report 



the weather. Similar radio sending stations will be 
needed in tht Arctic to serve meteorology, especially 
if intercontinental airplanes begin to use the shortest 
great circle route over the polar regions. 

In addition to polar land and Pacific islet stations, 
floating stations may be established farther south in 
midocean, according to various plans which have been 
advanced, and one put in practice. All such stations, 
floating or on islands, will involve new problems of 
inter-company and international cooperation. For 
unduplicated bases are clearly called for; further- 
more the same routes that serve conunerce might serve 
bombers. 

All trans- Atlantic flying will greatly speed mail, 
passenger, and express traffic, especially in connection 
with overland flying to complete the journey. Tours 
and brief oversea visits, especially by people who prize 
their time more than money, will be particidarly en- 
couraged. The possibility of getting a letter from a 
distant home regularly in two days will also encourage 
ordinary tours and business travel. Today, with the 
infrequency of mails, the time usually required is 
much more than the seven days or so nominally 
requisite. 

But the social and economic changes to follow the 
shrinking of the globe by long distance aviation ai-e, 
in some respects, less significant than the changes in 
habits of life which would result if the promises of 
steep-flight aircraft come to realization. Ex]iert opin- 
ion is divided; every word here written about such 
craft as the helicopter and the autogiro must be read 
with the reservation that many years may elapse be- 
fore the technical problems, such as that of providing 
adequate forwai'd speed, have been solved. Yet the 
winged horse which could leap into the air, soar or 
hover in the skies, and drop gently to a constricted land- 
ing spot, is no chimera — experimentally, at least, it has 
arrived. ^''' The familiar autogiro has recently been 
developed on an experimental basis for a take-off with 



3^ De la Ciorva's recent autopiro. able to leap into the air. fly away, 
and land almost vertically with a nin of a few feet, is discussed 
in Scientific American 152: 317, 1935; and with the gyroplane, ver- 
taplane, and "roadable" autogiro in R. M. Cleveland ; Wings That 
Turn — possibilities of rotating wing aircraft — vertical rising — high 
speed — roof-top landings ; in Scientific .American 153 ; 32, 33. 1935. Cf. 
also Autogiro, liebirth ; in Fortune, 13 : 88-93, March 1936. The 
helicopter and other types are discussed by E. Teale : Planes That Go 
Straight Up Open New Fields for Aviation ; in Popular Science Monthly, 
June 1936, pp. 31 ffi. One type of steep-flight craft depends on planes 
set in the horizontal propeller blast. The paddle-wheel type of Rohrbach 
or Piatt has feathering blades revolving about a parallel, horizontal 
axis. Another type has propellers with large blades of constantly re- 
adjustable pitch, the shaft directed downward and backward and .a 
small airplane added. Dr. A, F. Zahni's orthoplane plans are given in 
Scientific .\nierican 153 ; 268. .Ml steep-flight cj-aft, like airplanes, de- 
pend on the lift from airfoils (planes) moving swiftly and almost 
edge-on. They differ from airplanes in that they can maintain this swift 
motion ifiid strong lift even when the body of the aircraft is moving 
slowly, because their wing planes rotate. Preferably they can also 
maintain the rotation from the energy recovered during a descent, in 
case of engine failure. 



28 



National Resources Committee 



no run at all. The helicopter, which screws itself into 
the air, first sketched by I^eonardo da Vinci, has been 
made to rise and fly about under control, although its 
flight is as yet only a crude beginning. And there are 
other types, for example, the vertaplane, which is a 
biplane whose upper wing is rotated for reconnoitering 
and landing but fixed for efficient ordinary flight. It 
has flown experimentally in both forms. 

The consequences to aviation and civilization, from 
the power of landing and taking off almost anywhere, 
promise to be immense, multiplying the usefulness and 
safety of aircraft many fold. Almost all of the globe 
would be open to air traffic, including the places today 
least accessible to fast land or air transport, such 
as wildernesses, mountains, ships, and city centers. 
The present airplane type doubtless will continue in 
use for high-speed, long-distance, large-unit traffic; 
steep-flight aircraft may be expected to supplement 
the airplane, not to supplant it. For example, the 
highest paying demand for aviation is for transporting 
passengers, mail, and express between the centers 
of great cities. The slow trip through crowded streets 
to the airport at the edge of a city is a drawback to 
long flights and a preventive of short fliglits. But the 
"roof-hopper" would know no such difficulties. The 
new Philadelphia postoffice has a roof planned for 
aviation. If it will soon bo practicable to put pas- 
sengers or mail aboard a steep-flight aircraft in the 
center of a city and fly to a suburban airport on cheap 
land in a few minutes it may not be worthwhile today 
to build airports and buy expensive land near city 
centers. 

Aircraft, being light, could be housed on roofs, or 
the folding ones brought to the next lower floors on 
elevators. If aircraft were everywhere, like taxies and 
trucks, they could be vastly convenient. ^Modifica- 
tions of architecture might well be entailed. The fog 
difficulty is yielding to science. Steep-flight aircraft 
could be far safer in traffic than an airplane. For by 
definition it is capable of slow, and of steep or verti- 
cal flight, and perhaps of hovering and going back- 
ward, and of landing almost anywhcic in emergency 
without injury to itself or to the buildings or people 
beneath it. Such aircraft will have more freedom of 
movement than our present automobiles, since tliey can 
move in three dimensions instead of two. And they 
will have mucli more control than our airplanes whicli 
must rush unstoppably ahead while in the air. 

With the increase of aircraft, national and State 
boundaries and physical walls will mean less to the law- 
breaker. Wliile some ])olice operations, especially in 
a rugged terrain, would be aided, some offenses, such 
as smuggling and the conveyance of illegal immi- 
grants, promise to become easier when aircraft flying 
and landing are such everyday matters that they do 



not attract notice. The increasing ease of illegal en- 
try into the country may stimulate demand for 
legislation requiring identification cards for all 
foreigners. 

The cheap, safe airplane for umaleurs, whose in- 
vention our Department of Commerce has been en- 
couraging, is advancing more slowly than some 
enthusiasts had hoped, but eventual success seems cer- 
tain. AVhile private planes within another decade 
jirobably will be used by the ten-thousands, more time 
doubtless will elapse before they become serious com- 
petitors to the private automobile. The steep-flight 
jjrinciple, with its adaptation to landing on one's own 
office roof, back yard, or favored spot for recreation, 
antl with its relative safety, may some day provide the 
most popular aircraft for amatem-s. Types of auto- 
giro or airplane already demonstrated, which can land 
on any usable field, fold up like a beetle, and proceed 
along the highways like an automobile, to be housed 
in the home garage, have intriguing lecreation 
possibilities. 

Automohile transport, aided by constant technologi- 
cal improvements in automobile production and in 
highway design, may be ex[)ected to contimie its work 
of increasing mobility, destroying provincialism, 
speeding suburban growth (with the steep-flight air- 
craft for more remote suburbs), and spreading urban 
ways of life and thought throughout rural America. 
Incidental byproduct effects are likely to be numerous. 
To mention but one exam[)le; the lighting of highways 
with sodium or higli-i)ressure mercury lamps, if it 
proves extensively feasible, not only Avould help safety 
and provide 24-hour capacity for highways, but also 
would fit in with a rural electrification program, since 
the same costly line can serve the highway and the 
adjacent rural areas. 

The new development in motor transport which 
has the most direct social and economic possibilities 
is, however, the house trailer. The trailer may be a 
passing fad, but the odds are in favor of a rapid 
and persisting development. A highly mobile popula- 
tion of problematical size may be created, in which 
the traditional home, which has its roots in a single 
locality and is controlled by neighborhood mores, 
may be abandoned, yet, at the same time, family soli- 
darity may be fostered. Along with the freedom to 
follow the seasons for occupation and for [)leasuro 
would go certain losses, especially to children who 
may suffer breaks in schooling, in friendships, and in 
community loyalties. Insofar as the trailer becomes 
a permanent residence of a household, its limitations 
of space would possibly encourage the trend to smaller 
families. The service institutions, such as camp- 
grounds and filling stations, must enlarge their func- 
tions, since a trailer is not suited for crowded streets 



Technological Trends 



29 



in the city sltoppin*; area. Xew problems of govern- 
ment seem likely to arise, relating to taxation, car 
registration, police and sanitary regulations, and 
establishment of place of residence for voting. More 
interstate uniformity of the laws affecting travelers 
may be called for. The trailer, when mass production 
leads to cheaper prices, is likely to supplement rather 
iJiaii rephico the stationary home. 

In the railways we find a vast industry that lagged 
in applying now technological aids, but is now making 
striking moves to match its competitors. Bus coordi- 
nation, motor-rail cai'S for local service, faster ex- 
presses, electrification of the few most used lines, and 
the introduction of new luxuries will help the fast 
traffic. But the mileage of lines abandoned, and of 
those used for freight only, is expected to increase, 
and tendencies to be strengthened toward consolidation 
of roads and terminals, for economy, and because there 
are no longer new empires ahead to compete for. Elec- 
trification and dieselization of terminal traffic are mak- 
ing cities less smoky and noisy, and may tend, as in 
New York, to bring leading business districts nearer 
to the railway station. Faster and laucli longer runs 
by all kinds of locomotives tend to undermine the 
"division point" type of town. 

In water-borne traffic the increase in steamboat 
speed is and will be slow, that on the Hudson River 
having hardly been increased in a century. Hence 
goods calling for rapid transportation are no longer 
shipped on our inland and coastal waters, nor pas- 
sengers, save where reci-eation enters. And now fast 
ocean traffic is meeting increased competition by rail 
and air. For now there are rail and air lines across 
and along Asia, Africa, and South America, air mail 
across the Pacific and South Atlantic trans-Atlan- 
tic dirigibles, and probably there will shortly be j)as- 
senger and mail airplanes across the North Atlantic. 
It seems likely that much fast traffic over water will 
go by plane within 10 years, as happened long ago with 
gold shipments aci"oss the English Channel. 

Ocean ships will be safer, through perfection of 
many nnn(jr inxcntions for fire protection, cclio soiuiil- 
ing, etc., and especially through means for overcom- 
ing fog, the principal source of the remaining marine 
disasters. Seventeen of the 25 different remedies 
against fog listed for aircraft are applicable, with 
modifications to ships. Usually they are easier to use 
afloat, since the ships can contain, pay for, and take 
time to use more apparatus. Particularly promising 
and perhaps some day needing legislative enforcement, 
are the uses of infrared light, with the electron tele- 
scope, for sighting through fog the sun, the signal 
lights and hot funnels of an approaching ship, and 
lights or special signals from lighthouses. Light- 
houses and fog-horn stations may eventually be trans- 



formed into radio, infrared, and tmdei-water sound 
stations. 

A major social significance of all inventions for 
travel and fast transport is that they serve also for 
communication. The people who travel, as tourists, 
businessmen, and immigrants, carry the ideas of one 
region to another. Swift movement of goods is com- 
monly of letters, jjrinted ideas, examples of art, or 
highly manufactured goods which serve often as sam- 
ples or suggestions. National business and political 
organization, as against local and State, with the ac- 
companiment of national ways of thinking, are built 
up by every improvement of long-distance transport 
and communication. 

Entertainment and Education 

Few inventions have captured the imagination more 
than those which seem destined to alter habits of life 
and social and economic institutions associated with 
entertainment and information. The wonders of mo- 
tion pictures and the radio, now commonplace, would 
have appeared to an earlier generation as adventures 
into a world of magic rivaling or outdoing the bizarre 
di'eams of ancient fairy tales. Today, with the immi- 
nence of television and other inventions in the field 
of commmiication, there appear before us new wonders 
which even within our own lifetime, seem likely to 
become commonplace. 

The recent technological progress in communication 
will be described in chapter IV, part three. 

Principal attention will be given in this cha])ter to 
television,^' while other inventions and tlioir possible 
effects will be discussed very briefly. Television is of 
such great popular interest that it seems worthwhile to 
consider carefully, yet somewhat boldly, some details 
of its expected impact on American life. 

In ordinai-y life the eye is used more in perception 
than the ear. It has been suggested, therefore, that 
visual broadcasting when perfected will have even 
more important social effects than aural broadcasting. 
Such an idea must be accepted with caution. From 
the social standpoint, the most significant development 
took place when the radio made it possible to send 
news, music, and propaganda through the air into the 
home. Six years ago, the authors of the chapter on. 
"Invention" in Recent Social Trends were able to list 
150 social effects of the radio in its aural form. It 
does not seem likely that television will introduce a 
new list of social effects which is longer or more im- 
portant. Addition of sound to pictui-es doubtless pro- 
duced relatively few new social effects of the cinema. 
Addition of pictures to sound should be more im- 
portant in the case of the radio, because of the greater 

^ See all ch. IV, pt. Three. 



30 



National Resources Committee 



use of the sense of vision than of the sense of hearinjr. 
Yet it is likely that the main impact of television will 
be to intensify the social eflFects which broadcasting 
already is producing. 

The probable uses for television were pretty well 
foreseen by Plessner in 1892, when he wrote that it 
would present the stage, opera, important events, par- 
liament, lectures with demonstrations, church services, 
visits to watering places, races, regattas, parades, city 
sights, and the head of the state addressing the whole 
nation on opening parliament or declaring war. To 
this prevision of 44 years ago modern civilization has 
added advertising, movies, the animated cartoon and 
drawing, and new sports. 

It seems reasonable to expect that the most popular 
type of entertainment by television will be the drama. 
The dranui may grow in importance at the expense of 
music, which, not requiring the sense of vision, has 
occupied such a large share of aural broadcasting 
lime. The motion pictures, rather than the legitimate 
stage, doubtless will provide the dramatic patterns, 
since the televised dranui need not be limited to the 
walls of a single indoor stage and since the same 
variety of scenes, close-ups, angle shots, and the like 
can be achieved in television as in the cinenni. The 
competition of the home theater with the moving pic- 
ture theater may lead to important economic read- 
justments, rajiidly or gradiuilly, depending on the 
enlargeability of television screens, the abundance of 
televisors in homes, and on tlie controlling of patents 
and programs. The motion i)icture producers are not 
likely to suffer so much as tiie exhibitors, since it is 
likely that most television programs will be recorded 
as talking pictures before being broadcast. The ad- 
vantages would be to gain time for careful staging, 
facilitate repetition, permit simultaneous presentations 
without the difliculties of long-distance television trans- 
mission, and make easier adjustment of programs to 
local differences of time, taste, and advertising demands. 

As the visual drama enters the home, a strict cen.sor- 
ship against anything markedly objectionable to num- 
bers of people doubtless will be imposed, following the 
example of radio programs, which nuiy be stumbled 
into by any person, includiug chihlren. Indeed, an 
even more drastic censorship seems likely than in 
aural radio, since there will doubtless be fewer broad- 
casting bands for television. Due to their necessary 
great width in the spectrum, there will be, it appears, 
only one or a few television bands for each citj-. As 
the progress of invention heightens the perfection and 
detail of television, e. g. adding color and stereoscopy, 
one would infer that the wave band must widen. 
Unlimited entertainment programs will be offered anil 
open to such a powerful medium ; from these a select 
few must be chosen, and planned to the last detail. 



This is not formal censorship, but the necessity of se- 
lecting only a few among the many types of programs 
available might produce essentially the same result. 
Tf the maiuigement sells time on the air to the highest 
bidder, more freedom from censorship of the drama 
might prevail than if some other principle of financ- 
ing programs were adopted. Yet an advertiser in his 
own intei'est would probably tend, as at present, to 
avoid giving unnecessary offense to prospective cus- 
tomers. 

The televised drama has vast potentialities of utiliza- 
tion for political campaigns and advertising promo- 
tion. 

Of course, political addresses will be more effective 
when the candidate is both seen and heard and is able 
to supplement his address with charts or even motion 
pictures, (rood looks and presence will help, but suc- 
cess frequenth' may tend to favor those presenting 
the most skillfully managed professional shows, rather 
than the candidates best at radio talking, or at going 
about his constituency, or at capitalizing a loud and 
durable voice in speech-making. An advertising 
morsel may be woven into drama, as into other radio 
offerings today. Although trade associations could 
use plays better than single firms, television is likely 
to be a powerful sales medium for a wide variety of 
businesses. In addition to the drama, straight sales 
talks can be mo.st effective, in which goods are dis- 
played, even under a nucro.scope, and turned over to 
show the trade mark and the manner of using, while 
the salesman orates in the background. An evening 
telephone staff might be on hand to receive orders and 
perhaps to show further goods by point-to-point wired 
television. If informal agreements and consumer 
pressure do not operate to keep sales talks within 
bounds there may be new demands for goveriunent 
action. The limited number of bands available for 
television should tend to strengthen powerful firms 
with large funds for advertising, at the expense of 
smaller concerns. 

The use which newspapers will make of television 
and radio phototelegraphy in supplying news bulletins 
and pictures to the home depends on the availability 
of broadcast bands and on the extent to which wired 
as well as radio television and phototelegraphy will 
be cheaply available is used. Facsimile news bulle- 
tin could supplement the oral report by the present 
radio, while the opportunity to broadcast pictorial 
news, bringing scenes of sports events, state occasions, 
or disasters directly from the place of occurrence 
would afford a striking iimovation. The transmission 
of whole newspapers (or parts of newspapers giving 
the national news) bj- wire facsimile telegraph, from 
chain newspapers headquarters to provincial news- 
paper offices, is described in chapter IV, part three. It 



Technological Trends 



31 



will have the effect of strengthening metropolitan and 
chain newspaper influence. 

Thus far have been considered some of the implica- 
tions of television as broadcast by radio into the home. 
Television should also be expected to be widely dis- 
tributed by wire; how widely will depend on whether 
the ordinaiy telephone wires can be used, or only spe- 
cial wires. By wire will be broadcast all sorts of 
visible entertainment not sufficiently popular to win 
the very scarce broadcasting channels, but which 
could pay for themselves through charges for the wire 
service. These would supplement the radio programs. 
They would be received in snuill (heaters, hotels, clubs, 
restaurants, and billiard rooms, in homes able to pay 
for them, and in schools. Censorship will be less im- 
portant with this wired television than with radio, 
if many progi-ams can be available at once. One of 
the most significant probable uses of wired television, 
from the standpoint of social effects, needs more de- 
tailed treatment, namely, the role it may come to play 
in the school. 

Although education is one of our major activities, 
with a fourth of the American population attending 
school and with a budget which uses up more tax 
money in normal times than any other single outlay, 
education has been slow to adopt mechanical inven- 
tion. The phonograph and radio have been used con- 
siderably in teaching music, and the silent motion pic- 
ture has been used here and there for pedagogical 
purposes. The expense of educational talking pictures, 
especially animated drawings and dramatizations, to- 
gether with the notable lack of organization among 
schools to absorb what necessarily must be a large- 
scale output, has limited the production and utilization 
of films such as the University of Chicago has pro- 
duced in the sciences and Yale University in American 
history. The public schools serving four-fifths of our 
l)opulation are managed on a town or smaller district 
basis, and comprise over a hundred thousand separate 
public-school administrations, beside great numbers of 
colleges, parochial and private school organizations. 
Naturally it is difficult for all these authorities to agree 
sufficiently to bring about the production and easy 
distribution of expensive films. And the films must 
remain expensive so long as their costs must be assessed 
upon few users. Wii"ed television, however, will have 
the power of carrying such educational talking pictures 
directly into the school room, with probably less 
expense. The only drawback, once the technical 
problems are solved of presenting on the screen an 
image large enough and clearly enough defined to be 
seen by a classroom would be that many schools would 
need to adjust their schedules to tune in at a uniform 
hour. This would seem like a simple adjustment, yet 
one must not be too sanguine about the highly unor- 

8778°— 37 4 



ganized schools awakening at once to the new 
pedagogical opportunities. 

One must be cautious about predictions from know- 
ing how slow the schools have been to adopt other 
mechanical teaching aids. Yet may one not imagine 
for a moment what might be done, if the average 
elementary school teacher, instead of talking herself 
about the lesson or depending on the textbook, should 
step to the rear of the classroom and switcli on the 
televisor, or a talking moving picture program? 
By it she could present to the children a speaking, 
colored, moving, perhaps depth-showing image, strik- 
ingly lifelike, of one of the best teachers in the land, 
of a great scientist performing experiments as he 
talkotl al)out them to the children, an artist drawing, 
and explaining why he drew as he did, a musician, 
statesman, inventor, capitalist or handicraftsnuin dem- 
onstrating his work. The performance would have 
been carefully prepared in collaboration with educa- 
tion specialists, to be as interesting and effective as 
possible for childi-en of just that school grade. The 
animated drawings and movies already produced for 
schools and sometimes used in them, far exceed the 
specific pedagogic powers of even the best teachers 
in science and art. They telescope into a few sec- 
onds, millions of years of geologic time, make the 
movements of gases and electricity visible, present ex- 
plosions without doing damage, gather the four cor- 
ners of the world, with their living, singing people, 
into each classroom, and make the past live again in 
the present, in moving dramas of history. 

How long it would be before such a prospect could 
be realized on an extensive scale no one can tell. Grad- 
ually, however, the use of television, as well as the 
radio, direct talking moving picture, and phonograph 
may be expected to reach out farther and farther, 
from schools in metropolitan centei's to those in 
smaller connnunities, from colleges and high schools 
down to the primary grades. Among the general influ- 
ences might be the following: (a) An increase in coop- 
eration ami interschool organization; (b) moi'e atten- 
tion to the sciences, social studies, and the arts, grow- 
ing subjects in which the machine is best fitted to sup- 
plement the average teacher and textbook; (c) greater 
influence from the intellectual elite in contrast to the 
poorly trained provincial teacher; (d) extension of 
adult education, since the same programs used in the 
schools might be desired for leisure use in the home; 
(e) increase in the danger of propaganda invading the 
school system. 

An important question may be raised as to the pos- 
sible effects of television on motion pictures and music. 
With respect to movies, the previous discussion has 
indicated that television is eventually likely to depend 
extensively on broadcasting of motion pictures, with 



32 



National Resources Committee 



the possible strengthening lather than weakening of 
the jjosition of tlie movie producers. Tlie movie ex- 
hibitors face definite competition, however, from the 
liome theater. This competition should provide an 
added stimulus to the early development and utiliza- 
tion of inventions for the improvement of the direct, 
not televised, motion picture. The two lines of de- 
velopment which wouUl appear to give the movie 
houses a marked superiority over the home theater, at 
least for a considerable period of time, are color 
photography and stereoscopy. Color photography is 
steadily improving, while stereoscopy has not yet 
emerged from the experimental stage. Stereoscopic 
movies, based on various principles, some without 
special viewing apparatus, have been produced by 
the Bell laboratories and others. A recourse which 
may or may not be useful is the novelty polaroid, the 
first glass or other transparent material available in 
large pieces which can polarize light. Although the 
first fidl-color stereoscopic movies already have been 
produced experimentally, with startling realism, there 
are two drawbacks, namely, much of the light is 
stopped and the viewer must wear polaroid spectacles. 
Color and stereoscopj' may be largely confined to the 
movie theaters for a time, but it seems reasonable to 
expect that the problems of adding these features 
practically to television Avill be solved eventually. 

Music, as has been indicated, probably will jiekl 
some ground to the drama when television becomes 
general. Yet television may not be wanted much in 
day-time entertainments, especially when tlie listeners 
are women busy with housework, and the aural part 
of a television program could still be listened to with- 
out having or using the visual apparatus. Sight cannot 
add nmch to music. The beauty and fidelity of radio 
sound, Avith or without television, is being improved 
by inventions giving a greater range in overtones and 
loudness, while the reduction of extraneous radio noise, 
automatic volume control, reduction of fading, and 
improvements in remote control will add to the pleas- 
ure of hearing musical broadcasts. The addition of 
stereoscopic sound, if current experimental success 
bears further fruit, will add to the realism of radio 
music and of phonograph music as well, but be chiefly 
useful with television drama. Progress in music also 
is fostered by various other electrical inventions, which 
have produced organs of novelty and beauty with the 
power of playing as loud as one pleases or so softly 
as to be heard only by earphones. The whole char- 
acter of music may, indeed, some day be directly in- 
fluenced by a new musical instrument, still in the 
laboratory, with 144: notes per octave, which is able, 
like Cahill's telharmonium, to play in the just in- 
stead of the false, tempered intonation, and which 
contains Cahill's and Fischinger's principles of vari- 



able tone and sjTithetic sound.'* Ideal tones could 
first be designed as waves on paper, then sounded, 
making umiecessary the dependence on tones which our 
voices and ancient instruments can furnish. While the 
future of music is alluring, television doubtless will 
intensify the trend already begun by the radio and 
talking picture to reduce the number of professional 
musicians, permitting a greater concentration of re- 
wards to the excellent few. 

Acoustical progress fostered by entertainment needs 
and World War inventions, has led to many develop- 
ments in the musical loudspeaker and phonograph 
fields, and in particular to a growing attention to 
noise prevention. The study of fatigue also has been 
leading to claims that noise contributes to fatigue, 
neurasthenia, deafness, and loss of efficiency. At the 
same time noise is tending to become worse, with the 
growth of cities, of power consumed, radio in autos, 
advertising loudspeakers, aviation, and the need of 
protecting more daytime sleepers. Noise can be pre- 
vented by so man\- dilferent basic principles and par- 
ticular applications of them,'* that the progress to be 
made will evidently depend not on individual inven- 
tions; but on the general desire for (juiet ; legislation 
to demand quiel : wealth to pay for it ; and on the 
])rogress of measuring devices and basic science.*" 

When to the spoken woi-d is added the living image, 
the effect is to magnify the potential dangers of a 
machine which can subtly instill ideas, strong beliefs, 
profound disgusts, and affections. There is danger 



^ For Oscar Fischinper's work on synthetic sound see Pop. Set Mo., 
Mar. 1933, p. 36 ; or Les Ornements Sonores de M. Fischinger, In La 
yature 00 : pt. 2 : 437-9, Nov. 19, 1932. On the telharmonium c(. E. H. 
Pierce: A Colossal Experiment in Just Intonation; In Mus. Quarterly, 
10 : 32G-32, 1924 : an<l K. S. Baker : ^ew Music fur an Old World, 
McClurc's Mag. 27: 291-.'f01. The invention is now being worked up to 
nriglnate the notes through film discs or other means much easier than 
Cahill's dynamos. 

^ Noises can be prevented by stopping an unnecessary noise before 
it starts, or by changing an especially distressing sound element, or by 
tightening nia<-hinery to prevent useless vibrations, or by streamlining, 
or by slowing the tips of an air propeller. A noise once started can 
be cut off by separating a sound-carrying connection, or the noise may 
be imprisoned in a hood, or caught and deadened by a soft surface, or 
entangled and broken up by baffles or a filter-like glass wool, or 
reflected away. 

" Some devices may be mentioned that will most likely be used for 
quiet. Kubber Is increasingly used in all sorts of machinery, street- 
cars, airplanes, flooring, pavements, and even horseshoes. The means 
of insulating rooms for sound fit in admirably with the tendencies to 
insulate them from heat and cold, for air conditioning, and with the 
use of artificial ventilation, light and ultraviolet. For deadening 
sound, loose materials, like celotex, and soft materials like boards made 
from cornstalks, straw, etc., are often needed, made of agricultural 
wastes, although not fireproof. All of these are much easier in new 
construction than in rebuilding, so the day of soundproofing will not 
come till building resumes. Household electric appliances like vacuum 
cle-iners and fans can be silenced, and may need public-oflicial attention 
at the same time on account of radio disturbances, especially in the 
day of television. Welding instead of riveting is a great noise saver, 
especi.illy in the most populous districts, but sometimes its tise needs 
legal permission. Welding has nowhere been yet re<iuired in build- 
ing. A new street car invented for half a million dollars, put up by 
25 street car companies acting together, is so silent that the trolley wire 
noise is the principal one left ; and the car is much Improved otherwise. 



Technological Trends 



33 



from propaganda enterinp- the scliools. and perliai)S 
much greater danger from the propaganda entering 
the home. How great is the power in tlie control of 
mass communication, especially when helped by mod- 
ern inventions, has been made clear recently in coun- 
tries that liave had social revolutions, and which have 
promptly, in a very short period, brought extraordi- 
nary changes in the expressed beliefs and actions of 
vast populations. These have been led to accept whole 
ideologies contrary to their former beliefs, and to ac- 
cept as the new gospel what many outsiders would 
think ridiculous. The most powerful means of com- 
munication, especially for rai)id action in case of rev- 
olution, are the electric forms like radio and television, 
which spread most skillfully presented ideas to every 
corner of the land with tlie speed of light and a mini- 
mum of propaganda labor. Compared with these the 
impromptu soap-box orator with his audience of a 
dozen, or a local preacher with his 200, are at a grave 
disadvantage. Certainly no advertiser would expect 
to sell as many goods by an amateurish appeal reach- 
ing 10 dozen, as by a captivating one reaching 10 
million. Television will have the power of mobilizing 
the best of writers and scene designers, the most win- 
ning of actors, the most attractive acti'esses. 

A fundamental question of national policy is there- 
fore raised. Wliat ideas, whose ideas, shall be mass- 
connnunicated ? ^Vlio shall control television? To 
control the doors to people's minds, even of the child in 
the home, is to have considerable power to control their 
minds. AVliatever body wields such power might con- 
ceivably be able in time to undermine all opposition 
to its power. The question is evidently raised whether 
the control should be in the hands of private capital, 
presumably under Government supervision, or under 
direct Government management and control. 

A vital aspect of this problem is the patent situa- 
tion. The British Government has met this problem 
by demanding a pool of all British television patents. 
If they were not pooled, patent holders might block 
one another. In American television, the high degree 
of monopoly and cooperation already existing in radio 
and elsewhere in the weak-current electric field may 
perhaps be considered as paving the way for pooling 
satisfactory to the public interest. Two things seem 
sure — that we shall not help matters by letting pro- 
ducers balk each other with patents, or spend millions 
figliting over them ; and that there are great technical 
economies in permitting the weak-current electric in- 
dustry to remain an integrated whole. Particularly 
with the wires, where the same wire can carry simulta- 
neous telephone, telegraph, ticker, telephotography, 
and chain broadcasting messages, and the same line of 
poles can carry all the electric communications between 



two cities, it is logical engineering not to start dupli- 
cating the lines. 

Akin to the patent and control problems is the need 
of a standardized but improvable electrical system, so 
that any receiving-set owner may receive any broad- 
casts within his reach, and continue to receive them 
for years despite improvements added, such as finer 
definition. Nation-wide standardization of apparatus 
is also desirable so that large-scale manufacturing 
could reduce the cost of uuiking and servicing the sets. 

International standardization is desirable witli Can- 
ada and middle America, and maybe some day with 
Europe, but not, it appears, in the present short-radius 
stage. Along with international standardization and 
regulation, some enthusiasts have foreseen a need for 
an international language, such as the easy and neutral 
Esperanto which has been used by several interna- 
tional radio organizations. But the day when such 
a need will be generally felt still seems distant. 

For good or for ill, a new day is dawning in enter- 
tainment, and eventually will dawn in school educa- 
tion. Technology has provided the power to enrich 
the leisure hours, to promote family solidarity by 
bringing the theater into the home, to develop national 
uniformity and unity at the cost of provincialism, and 
to widen man's knowledge of the world in which ho 
lives. 

Some Agencies of Control 
Inventions Affecting Law and Order 

Numerous inventions, both technical and social, are 
being developed as an aid to law enforcement. But 
many of these inventions have a much wider potential 
effect in creating order and regularity in the com- 
munity as a whole. At best, in the modern scene, we 
can hardly know our fellows as well as in the older, 
stable village community. For the increases of 
])opulation, cities, and mobility between residences, 
cities, and jobs, and the swift passage by auto, make 
it harder than ever to tell whether our neighbor is 
a man to greet, shun, elect to office, arrest, employ, or 
discharge. 

The polygraph," commonly called "lie detector", 
does not automatically detect lies, but does enable a 
highly trained user to detect emotion aroused by 
questions, and so usually to determine guilt or in- 
nocence, and to learn whatever facts the suspect is 
trying to conceal, providing the expert has some no- 
tion of what to ask and the suspect can be prevailed 
on to take the test. The polygraph of Prof. Leonardo 
Keeler is a device which measures blood pressure and 
respiration, wliile carefully chosen questions are asked, 



" Keeler, Leonarde : Debunking the Lie Detector ; in Jol. of Crim. 
Law ; 25 : 153-9, 1934. Inbau, Fred E. : Methods of Detecting Decep- 
tion ; in .Jol. of Crim. Law ; 24 : 1140-58, 1934. 



34 



National Resources Committee 



some harmless, some fitted to arouse emotion in a 
guilty but not an innocent i^erson. AMiile the guilty 
person tries to control one S3'mptom, e. g., his breath- 
ing, he gives himself away by others. 

The poh'graph, in thousands of cases under the di- 
rection of Prof. Keeler, lias proved highly successful. 
It met rapid accejitance from the police of Chicago 
and neighboring cities, and from 45 different Cliicago 
financial institutions in the years 1931-34. In police 
circles it has been useful for obtaining confessions 
and evidence, freeing innocent suspects, and saving 
time of detectives by terminating false leads. 

This invention does not come alone. As per the 
principle of functional equivalents it comes paralleled 
by three or more other means of reaching the same 
end — notably scopolamin. sodium amytal, and hypno- 
tism. Scopolamin and sodium amytal are drugs 
which, while they have been applied with successful 
results *- by medical experts on various types of pris- 
oners, nevertheless encounter a great deal of opposi- 
tion both on professional and ethical grounds. Sim- 
ilarly, the use of hypnotism is subject to widespread 
objection. 

Nevertheless, the third degree as a means of lie de- 
twting is being displaced steadily by the many new, 
humane, and scientific means, though many police de- 
partments still cling to the third degree from habit, 
lack of information, and the general conservatism of 
our legal system as a whole. As yet any defense law- 
yer can object to these new devices. Their proponents 
have hitherto avoided asking their acceptance, either 
by courts or legislatures. There are no controlling 
decisions, and the devices have never been used to 
prove guilt directly and legally. But they are useful 
in getting confessions and other evidence, in freeing 
innocent people; and have been successful also in 
])rivate business. Their proponents delay asking ap- 
propriate legal changes mitil their case is not only 
conclusive but also widely known, as when the capacity 
of fingerprints to prove identity became well known. 

Identification. — Numerous scientific inventions •will 
facilitate the identification of individuals, whether 
dead, mute, or lying. The chief one is fingerprints, 
by no means a new invention, since the Chinese have 
long used it for documents and bank notes. The new 
silver nitrate method of raising latent fingerprints 
from paper, cloth, and rough wood, and even reveal- 
ing a print made through a glove, should increase their 
police usefulness. The Federal Government has now 
the prints of 5,000,000 people at Washington, and is 
receiving 300 a day sent voluntarily by people ap- 
preciating this protection in case of impersonation, 
desertion, kidnaped or wandering children, amnesia, 

"Inbau, supra; anil Time, Nov. 18. 1935. Inbau and Lit. Dig. Feb. 
16, 1936, p. 32. 



(loath, loss of mind in a strange place, or a general 
disaster. Some banks use the fingerprint in lieu of 
signature by people unable to write, or require it 
from all visiting a safety deposit vault. It is expected 
by some that insurance companies will soon unite in 
demanding that all policies be fingerprinted both by 
the insured and the beneficiaries. The prints woidd 
l)e similarly useful on wills against impersonation. 
The recent discovery that fingerprints can be effec- 
tively forged will require caution in accepting prints 
of people otlier than the person offering them. But 
a print made on the spot, with a bare finger, cannot 
jKjSsibly be false. 

Argentina takes the ))rints of all males reaching 
18, and gives an identity card to any jierson of good 
conduct who asks for one. In the United States the 
facilities for gathering of official prints have been 
increased not only by voluntary offering but by taking 
them for all World War and other soldiei-s, Federal 
civil service employes, postal savings depositors, and 
most offenders. The new millions of old age pension- 
ers, relief clients, and would-be immigrants offer wider 
possibilities if fingerprinting should grow in the 
futui-e. 

Various other bodily charactei-s have been proposed 
as substitutes for fingerprints — toe prints, which mir- 
ror those of tlie person's fingei-s, foot])rints, finger- 
nails, and the capillaries on the retina of the eye. But 
none are so convenient for universal use as finger- 
prints which are not likely to be replaced. But from 
time to time they will be supplemented, as by a file and 
catalog of handwritings, voice records, and a criminal's 
"modus operandi", portrait, regular description (por- 
trait parle), and a talking picture showing him in 
normal activity. All of these are beginning to be used. 

A new devolo])ment which increases the need for 
such identifications is plastic surgery, to which major 
criminals hpve recently turned. By modern facial 
surgery the jirofile of nose, forehead, and chin may be 
widely alteretl, the ears, especially trusted by police, 
changed completely, the face "lifted", and old scars, 
birthmarks, and tattooing removed. This is done usu- 
ally with no conspicuous new scarring, though close 
looking and feeling will reveal it. For the final cap- 
ture, a man must usually be recognized by sight, how- 
ever well his fingerprints and other traits are known; 
so plastic surgery remains a new problem for the 
jiolice, and for voliuitary and perhaps obligatory pre- 
cautions by the surgical profession.''^ 

The identification of criminals by relics they leave 
behind or carry about them is a rapidly advancing art, 
which tends to reduce crime and may transform police 
departments, as soon as the inventions spread more 



" Malinial;. Jacques W. : The Plastic Surgeon and Crime; in .Tour, of 
Crim. Law, 26 : 594-COO, 1935. 



Technological Trends 



35 



widely. A liair, a match, the dust in a man's pockets, 
tlie dirt on liis shoes, may tliroiigh scientific study 
become crucial clues. ISIoulage enables preserving for 
years a perfect cast of an impression left by a hand, 
foot, teeth, or a burglar's tool, or a lifelike reproduc- 
tion of any perishable object. 

The identification of bullets and firearms by Iheir 
individual grooves is becoming well known: the like 
may be done with burglar tools. Serial luunbers filed 
off a gun, auto engine, or some stolen article may be 
bi-ought out again. Blood stains that have been 
washed for concealment can still be distinguished, by 
two methods, from any other stain save that of blood 
from a human being or a great ape. With a better 
sample, and the new technique of Zangenmeister, a 
single individual's blood or oven a fingernail may be 
used for identification. The standardized description 
of a criminal seen, and his habitual dress and be- 
havioi-, have recently come to be cataloged on punch 
cards, so that all the people showing a certain com- 
bination of traits can rapidly and mechanically be 
sorted out. 

Handwriting is a clue to identity often available, 
and may i-eveal to a special student whether a hand 
was disguised and often what are the characteristic 
features of the writer's own hand.** 

All these and many other developments in scientific 
criminology are creating a situation where a ])olice 
personnel capable of using them can do far better 
work than an unintelligent and untrained stalT. The 
recently established United States Police School covers 
in 12 weeks 77 different subjects, including photo- 
graphy identification of typed and handwritten docu- 
ments, elementary chemistry, drawing and charting, 
finding and developing latent fingerprints, glass frac- 
(Ures, gunpowder tests (e. g., to tell whether a man 
has fired a pistol since he washed his hands), record- 
ing crime-scene data, toxicology, statistics, records, 
spot maps, uniform crime reports, firing from autos, 
bobbing and moving targets, gas grenades, flares, ab- 
normal psychology, and expert testimony. Post- 
graduate specialized courses are also given. 

Another consequence of the elaboration of police 
methods is the impossibility of a village, town, or 
county police force having all the ecjuipment and ex- 
perts, and especially the identification files, that may 
be needed. Scientific progress brings a strong tend- 
ency', therefore, for our 39,000 separate police agencies 
to establish closer connections with others in their 
State, Nation, and even foreign countries. Greater 
standardization and centralization of authority are in- 



evitable features of such wider organization. Here, 
as elsewhere, local liberty and diversity yield ground 
before wider authoritj' when improvements of com- 
munication and transportation have made wider con- 
tacts feasible, and when science, specialization, and in- 
tegralitm have enabled a single worker with ver}' spe- 
cial knowledge, records, and tools to function far more 
efficiently than could scattered, amateurish, and un- 
equipped workers. 

Not onl}' in police preparatory work but also in 
court trial we may expect to see increased emphasis 
upon expert testimony, and a legal regularization of 
the position of the expert, perhaps giving him public 
and official rather than partisan status, and letting him 
determine conclusively the facts in his specialty. The 
spectacle of experts hired by opposing sides, arguing 
against each other in a courtiooni, to win a decision 
from a jury and judge quite unuc([uainted with the 
chemistry, psychology, or other sciences they are 
arguing about, becomes anomalous, not to say dis- 
tressing, in a scientific age. 

Not only in identification but throughout police and 
penal methods and the opposing criminal ones we 
observe a rapid progi-ess in the science available, and 
a lagging recourse to it.*^ The radio-receiving squad 
car can be equipped with a transmitter, as in several 
cities, for two-way short-wave communication, accu- 
rately crystal-tuned.*" Indeed, a one-meter wave 
transmitter has been produced that transmits speech 
4 miles, using less i:)ower than a flashlight, packed into 
a 3-inch cube,*' and another set put in a hat, with a 
telescoping spike for antenna. It seems plausible that 
at least one policeman in every squad will be equipped 
both to send and receive by radiotelephone, so as to 
keep in constant touch with headquarters and with 
coo[)crating policemen, to work better and more safely. 

In the fields of courts, law, and punishment we see 
few mechanical inventions, a number of social ones, 
and some jjrogress in penological science. But there 
are strong legal and traditional obstacles to ajiplying 
this science. The penologist's work is based iqjon 
])rinciples of first directing youths away fi-om crime, 
then treating the criminal, not punishing according 
to the crime; curing the curable and finishing off or 
imprisoning for life tlie incorrigible. But the penol- 
ogist is not sure of his methods, nor is he allowed to 
experiment extensively. Some social inventions which 
he is permitted to use increasingly are the juvenile 
court, indeterminate sentence, socialized prison for 
segregated types and especially of late, the release of 
prisoners on supervised parole after scientific, socio- 



"■ Quirke. A. J. : Forged. Anonymous, and Suspect Document.s. Lon., 
1930. Saudek, R. : Writing Movements as Indications of the Writer's 
Social Behavior ; in .Tour, ot Soc. Psy.. 2 : 337-73. 



'= Improved burglar alarms are di.scussod in pt. tliree, eh. VII. 

" Sci. Amer. 153 : 77, August 1935. 

"Pop. Sci. Mo.. April 1930. p. 22. and .Tanuary 1930. 



36 



National Resources Committee 



logical study of their personal records and of the 
whole problem of predicting the probable success or 
failure of parolees. 

There are growing scientific bases for attempting 
to understand the natures of individuals, to distinguish 
and measure to some extent the different types of 
cliaracter, intellect, and physique. Analysis is also 
going forward of the dilTerent jobs, responsibilities 
and domestic situations which different types of people 
are fitted to fill. New institutional means are further 
being devised for helping people to be placed most 
effectively. Formerly we depended largely upon 
courts, elections, and private employment agencies. 
Today, there have been developed juvenile courts, psj'- 
chiatric bureaus for child, court, and obvious mental 
cases, and psychiatric and intelligence tests in schools, 
clinics, and prisons, classificatioii of prisoners; parole 
boards handling indeterminate sentences with scientific 
prognostic methods; placement service for discharged 
convicts; supervised 2>arole; vocational guidance; em- 
ployment agencies on altruistic and public bases and 
civil service commissions and private personnel depart- 
ments using intelligence, psychological and trade 
tests. 

Against the sweep toward more public and private 
knowledge of (he individual, there are, however, cer- 
tain countervailing tendencies. Note has been made 
of the growths of population, urbanism and mobility. 
To a large degree the most intelligent criminals can 
thwart or twist the police sciences to their purposes, 
by avoiding leaving identifying traces, remodeling 
their faces, communicating by photophone perhaps, 
forging fingerprints, fooling the psychologist, cor- 
rupting file clerks, etc., especially with gang help. 
But the more science advances, diversifies into special- 
ties, and establishes a closer knit police organization, 
the more helpless against the police becomes the single 
rebel or gang, and especially the ignorant criminal. 
They can all learn, but will probably not be able to 
keep pace with police science. 

In fine, there have emerged many inventions oppos- 
ing crime. But the army of disorganization has on 
its side important social forces we mentioned, of in- 
creases in mobility, urban population, crimes defined, 
and movable property, beside the abiding American 
traditions of libertarianism, local independence, and in 
some circles, admiration of crime. 

The Areas of Government 

Government, like other activities, feels the impact 
of technological changes. The drive toward organi- 
zation and consolidation, which science and invention 
have brought in industry and economic life generally, 
results in problems of adjustment which concern all 
citizens. To enumerate the maladjustments which 



government has come to concern itself with and in 
the cause of which technological change has played 
an important role would require an extensive list in 
itself. Unemployment, industrial instability, agricul- 
tural distress, currency and banking, protection of 
labor, tariffs, crime, monopolies — these are all prob- 
lems of vital concern to government — problems which 
the present machine age has brought to the fore. 

AVliile there has occurred steady growth of govern- 
mental functions in the last few decades at all levels 
of Government — Federal, State, and local — of partic- 
ular note in light of technological developments is the 
recent trend toward consolidation and centralization. 
Some may view such tendencies with alarm. Almost 
every invention of transportation and communication, 
however, tends toward the enlargement of the areas 
of government. Such inventions are so numerous and 
important that more than one-third of the entire sec- 
ond part of this report is devoted to them. All inven- 
tions which make it possible for goods to be moved 
cheaper or more quickly, people to trav^el faster and 
more comfortably, or ideas to be better conveyed, in 
point-to-point or wholesale communication, tend, first, 
to build up larger, more widespread businesses. These 
tend to outrun the jjowers of local regulation and tax- 
ation and to become more and more subject to wider 
areas of governance. 

At the same time businesses are thus enlarged, the 
desires of the purchasing public are being unified 
around national standards by communication, especi- 
ally by national advertising and the movies, which 
spread over the whole nation desires for the same 
kinils of clothes, furniture, foods etc. Thus a large 
scale market is built up for national businesses with 
large-scale jiroduction. The uneciualietl productive 
efficiency and wealth of the American people can be 
traced mainly to their large-scale production of manu- 
factures and excellent transportation and communica- 
tion systems, accompanied by free trade and exchange 
among the 48 States. 

At the same tima that better transportation and com- 
munication are building wiiler business and mental 
uniformity, they are enabling governmental areas to 
grow wider to match them, by facilitating wider ])ub- 
lic business. By means of auto, telephone, and pres- 
ently steep-flight aircraft, closer contact is coming 
between town and county seat, and between the many 
parts of a metropolitan area, often located in different 
States, Technological developments have brought 
such concentration into metropolitan areas that not 
only have increased services of government been called 
for, but also sucli services are depending more and 
more upon wider areas of administration for their 
eflScient functioning. Similarly there arise closer 
Hides between all these areas and the state capital, by 



Technological Trends 



37 



faster trains and cheaper telegraphing and telephon- 
ing, and easier communication between all these and 
Washington by these means and by aviation, radio, 
and eventually television. All these inventions will 
help officials to confer with each other and with their 
staffs, experts to advise, every kind of distant business 
to be more easily handled, elected officers to be known 
to wider constituencies, and voters to be somewhat 
informed on and interested in broader issues. 

Many shifts of power from smaller to larger units 
of government have been made by law, but many 
others are effected in more indirect fashion, by a trans- 
fer upward of interest, prestige, legislative, and ad- 
ministrative vigor and efficiency. Sometimes the in- 
ventional origin of a change is evident, as when the 
auto bus and better roads bring in the consolidated 
school and district, when the auto brings national road 
financing and need of wider police organization, when 
the superpower line and national holding comi)any 
bring Federal regulation of electric power, and when 
the radio and airplane develop to require national 
and international regulation. More often than from 
single inventions, and indeed always in part, the 
change really comes largely because of the whole mass 
of thousands of transport and communication inven- 
tions which all go to encourage centralization of 
authority, even though among these only a few may 
be conspicuous. 

One quiet force making for wider areas of control is 
the need of a wider source for taxation. So long as 
the country's wealth was mostly in real estate, espe- 
cially agricultural land, the general property tax and 
local administration of it sufficed very well for most 
purposes. But new inventions in agriculture and in- 
dustry have helped cut the farm pojjulation to a 
quarter of the whole, and communication and trans- 
port progress have gathered much of the Nation's 
wealth into the hands of great national corpora- 
tions, of which 200 are said to control 38 percent 
of the business wealth of the country, according to 
Berle and Means. The ownership of the cor i)orat ions 
is scattered among people who live mostly in the metro- 
politan centers, far from their industrial properties, 
and who can be taxed most effectively only through 
the national income tax. Hence the growing inability 
of the small, local governments to bear their burdens of 
education, relief, etc., and a disposition to support 
and administer such services from the State and 
National capitals. 

Just as the improvements of communication and 
transportation all tend to involve the different regions 
of the country more with one another, and therefore to 
l^uild up the central, national authority as the only 
possible harmonizer of conflicting intei'ests, so the 
same inventions, but especially those for transoceanic 



freighl. passenger, and ideal traffic, tend strongly to 
build up international cooperation and oi'ganization. 
Take such problems as international postal and tele- 
graph services, the repartition of radio wave lengths, 
the repression of the illicit drug traffic, the protection 
of labor, the establishment of international languages 
such as the marine signal code and the scientific termi- 
nologies, calendar reform, the business of the many 
world conferences occurring each year and drawing 
up international agreements, and any encouragement 
of world peace — such problems can be solved only in- 
ternationally. The world-spread cultui'e gives a basis 
for mutual understanding, and whether the League of 
Nations be followed or not, there result inevitably 
international conventions and common action, involv- 
ing every important country. This means that we 
follow not simply our own will, but more that of the 
consensus of the nations; whence national government 
is, in some small degree, superseded Ijy international 
organization. 

On the other hand, increasing contacts in some ways 
bring new frictions, as through radio propaganda, and 
the fear of airplane raids. In such ways international 
disorganization is promoted; but probably the uniting 
effect is the greater. While invention modifies polit- 
ical practices, in turn political principles modify what 
will be done with inventions. For illustration, when 
the first railway cars were being built in America, 
far from making them identical or at least intercon- 
nectible, some little roads even deliberately adopted 
a different rail gage, to prevent all possibility of 
through movement of cars. Much later rival single- 
track roads were built side by side for great dis- 
tances. Unity would always have been technically 
desirable, and was enforced in Europe, but in Amer- 
ica the i^olitical philosophy of that age saw more ad- 
vantage in free competition. The standardized, in- 
terconnectible, and life-saving Janney car coupler 
was not insisted on initil the beginning of the 
century. But when, at later epochs, the airplane and 
radio came along, national and even international 
standardization and control were enforced early, not 
because the needs of these devices were essentially very 
different from those of the railroads, but because the 
political philosophy had changed, and no strong 
vested interests nor established customs stood in the 
way. 

Every page of this cliajiter has been pointing out 
inventions of significance to government, i. e., forth- 
coming technological developments in which the fed- 
eral or a minor government might probably, if it 
wished to, accomplish some progress or ward off some 
impertding evil by taking some sort of legislative or 
administrative action with reference to the new in- 
vention. As examples, there have been pointed out 



38 



National Resources Committee 



the immense political power of television, the oppor- 
tunity for machines in education, and the tendencies 
for noise to increase. References have been on the 
basis of the political principles usual today; accordinfi 
to those of the lS80"s, such niattei-s wore nf) concern of 
government. 

Examples of how, under modern conditions, inven- 
tion may invite governmental action are found in the 
case of all sorts of materials for consumers' goods. 
Technological improvements introduce vast numbers 
of new products, notably chemical products and foods. 
The consmner is confused by the multiplicity of the 
substances which he has no waj' of distinguishing. 
Trade names add to his confusion. Acetate rayon, for 
example, commonly bearing some trade name, needs 
quite ditfcrent treatment in cleaning and dyeing from 
ordinary cellulose rayon and from all natural fibers. 
One plastic may be heated with impunity, while an- 
other would soften or catch fire. The need that people 
generally shall know how the materials which they 
have bought can be pi-otected. cleaned, resurfaced, re- 
paired, altered, and finally salvaged or used for scrap, 
may call for action by Government or trade associa- 
tions, for pi'oper labeling, as already in the case of 
drugs. 

Bi-oadly considered, tlic drive toward integration 
which has accompanied technological developments 
has meant that the activities of government have 
come to concern themselves more and more with sit- 
uations and organizations, rather than witli individuals 
as such. In past decades, many a person was killed by 
horse traffic. But with horses and vehicles unstand- 
ardized and so fully in the control of individuals and 
small dealers, the Government made little attempt to 
regulate them, almost wholly confining itself to 



ordaining that whoever did injury by recldess driving 
should pay damages or be punished. Today, with 
nearly all the autos in the country being built by a 
dozen companies, they seem more "get-at-able", and 
governments try to prevent accidents before they hap- 
])en, by requiring In-akes and lights up to certain 
standards, and establishing traffic signals and rules, 
and folice to command eacli move where tlie traffic 
is thickest. Today we are inclined to regulate sit- 
uations and group units, by many special laws. For- 
merly we i)unished people after the wrong was done, 
by general laws, <ni the theory that they chose to be 
reckless or malicious, and that their punishment would 
deter others in the future. When every American 
familj- made its own light from tallow, pitch pine, 
or what they could find. State regulation of the light 
business would have been absurd. But when the lights 
in a city are dependent upon one generating station 
and one company, regulation becomes feasible and de- 
sirable. The growing interdependence of economic'life 
with its high degree of organization, and the fact that 
now almost every vital concern of life is at some stage 
on a wholesale basis, make it both easier and often 
needful to regulate the large-scale stage, rather than 
to attem])t to ))ick out and punish some individual 
wi'ongdoer alter the hai'm is done. 

Acknowledgments 

The author's hearty thanks are due to Drs. Samuel 
A. Stoutfer, William F. Ogburn, and S. McKee 
Rosen, Chicago. Technical advice is gratefully ac- 
knowledged from Urs. Richard O. Cunmiings, Mar- 
tin J. Freeman, Marius Hansome, Paul S. Hai'tsuch, 
Lloyd W. Mints, Barkev 8. Sanders, and Robert N. 
Wenzel. 



IV. RESISTANCES TO 



THE ADOPTION 
INNOVATIONS 

By Bernhard J. Stern ' 



OF TECHNOLOGICAL 



Introduction 

Prognoses iiiii be nmde as to inventions in the 
oiling through a knowledge of the cumulative de- 
velopments and lines of research in specific fields of 
technology. But such predictions arc nonrealistic un- 
less they take into consideration the social and eco- 
nomic setting of these innovations. Basic inventions 
may be still-born and entire lines of j)olcntial dovelo})- 
ment be prevented, not because of deficiency in engi- 
neering plans, but because of factors entirely beyond 
their scope. Predictions based uj)on the assumption 
that if valuable or profitable technological inventions 
ai'e but conceived, they will be incorporated into in- 
dustrial life, ignore the evidence of past experience. 
For the history of inventions in technology is replete 
with frustrations and protracted delays in the accept- 
ance of innovations which subsequently have proven 
of inestimable value to mankind. 

The acceptance or rejection of technological innova- 
tions depends to a large measure on whether they are 
introduced at a time when an economy is static, con- 
tracting or expanding ; whether they appear in a set- 
ting of social stratification, of anarchic competition 
and class struggle, or in a plamied industrial order. 
Within these varied frameworks there are other 
psychological and cultural factors that determine re- 
ceptivity to technological innovation which can be 
brought into perspective by a study of specific cases 
of opposition to technological change. 

The purpose of this report is twofold. It is to pre- 
sent evidence through historical, analytical inquiry 
tliat resistance to technological innovation is frequent 
and powerful enough that it must bo taken into con- 
sideration when discussing trends, and it is to investi- 
gate the socio-economic and psychological factors 
which are involved in this resistance. 

1. Resistances to Technological 
Innovations in Various Fields 

There will be no attempt here to make an exhaustive 
compilation of all cases where technological change 
has met resistance. The high frequency of such op- 
position makes selection imperative. The basis of 
choice has been not the spectacular, but the normal oc- 
currence of resistance to teclinological innovations, 
throughout history, but particularly in recent w-estern 
societies, in fields which most influence man's life and 
livelihood, and permit his control and effective utiliza- 
tion of his natural environment. The number of cases 



discussed will be sufficiently diveise and adeciuate to 
give insight into (he causes of such resistance and to 
permit generalizations that have wider applicability. 

Transportation 

It is clearly to man's advantage to be able to traverse 
distances with facility and in ease, yet innovations 
j)ei-mitting moi-e comfortable and more rapitl mobility 
geneially have encountered apathy or overt resistance, 
and their utilization has repeatedly been restricted 
by vested interests. In the thirteenth century such 
resistance manifested itself in the case of the use 
of cai-riages. Philip the Fair ordered the wives of 
citizens of Paris not to ride in carriages in order to 
preserve the prerogatives of the ladies of the court.^ 
A law likewise sought to prevent the use of coaches in 
Hungary in 1523, and the Duke Julius of Brunswick 
in 1588 made riding in coaches by his vassals a crime 
l^unishable as a felony, largely on the grounds that it 
would interfere with military preparedness, for men 
would lose tlieir equestrian skill. Philip II, Duke of 
Pomerania-Stettin, also commanded his vassals in 1608 
that they should use horses and not carriages.^ In 
England, coaches were not widely used until the time of 
Elizabeth, who rode only reluctantly in this effeminate 
conveyance which yomig men scorned.^ In Donegal, 
Ireland, as late as 1821, carts to carry produce, which 
had previously been carried in creels on ponies' backs, 
were rejected as useless.^ 

There were manj- impediments placed in the way of 
stagecoaches in all countries. Local authorities often 
kept the roads in disrepair lest business be diverted 
elsewhere. Strangers were taxed excessively for 
horses, repairs, and stoppages. Tolls and passport 
requirements were onerous. Even at the beginning of 
the nineteenth century one traveling from Gottingen 
to Rome had to have his passport vised about 20 
times.** Such jiolitical interference involved delays 



'Department of Soci:il Science, Columbia University. 

= Yeats, John, The Technical History of Commerce (London 1872), 
p. 178. 

^necltman, Johann. Boytriige zuv Gesctiichte der Erfindunsen. 2 vols, 
ri.eipzic 1783-1805) tr. by William Johnston as A History of Inven- 
tions. Discoveries, .and Origins. 2 vols. (4tli ed. by William Francis 
and J. W, Grimth (London, 1846i, pp. 72-7.3.) 

' Bishop, J. L., A History of American Manufactures From 1608 to 
1860, 3 vols. (3d cd.. Philadelphia, 1S68) vol. i. p. 20. 

^ Hamilton, John, Sixty Years' E.tperience as an Irish Landlord, ed. 
by H. G. White (London, 1894), pp. 47-48. 

° Boebn, Max von, and Fischel, Oskar, Die Mode : Menschen und Moden 
in neunzehnten Jahrhundert. 4 vols. (Munich, 1907-19) tr. by Marian 
Edwardes as Modes and Manners of the Nineteenth Century. 4 vols. 
(Rev. ed., London, 1927) vol. i, pp. 177-178. 

39 



40 



National Resources Committee 



and expense, and discouraged travel by stagecoaches 
long after they were well equipped for distance travel. 

Railroads. — Turnpike companies profiting by tolls, 
and owners of stagecoaches were among the most 
active opponents of railroads. They were supported 
by tavernkeepers along the route of the roads, and by 
farmers who felt that the introduction of the railroad 
^\•ould dei)rive them of markets for horses and for haj'. 
In the United States, Congress had initiated an exten- 
sive program of road-building and had already built 
a national road and many post roads that facilitated 
travel. The argimient that a system of macadamized 
public highways would better serve the Nation than 
railways deserved serious consideration when the dis- 
persion of the i)oi)ulation and the crudeness of early 
railroad development is considered. At tlus time, also, 
steam carriages were being considered as a commercial 
possibility to supersede horses in propelling stage- 
coaches, and the conflict therefore was not merely 
between slow railroads and fast horses, which often 
beat the trains on good roads, but rival forms of steam 
conveyance, one confined to fixed routes on the rails, 
the other more mobile. Tlie current competition 
between the railroads and autobuses was thus antici- 
pated. The railroads emerged as victors in such a 
decisive fashion that extensive roadbuilding and the 
development of mechanical conveyances on these roads 
were checked for decades. 

Advocacy of the "people's road" as against monop- 
olistic railroads became one of the political issues of 
the Jacksonian period. It was argued in Congress 
that railways were "vastly inferior" to roads and that 
"Democrat ic-Kei^ublicans" wanted a road on which 
all could travel together "no toll, no monopoly, noth- 
ing exclusive — a real "people's road.' " ' This opposi- 
tion was engendered not merely by the fact that the 
railways business required a considerable capital and 
a corporate form that made it a "moneyed power", 
but also by the fact that the railroad operators could 
hardly have been said to have repiesented the people's 
interest, or to have acted in a manner to elicit public 
confidence. Speculative financing which ruined small 
investors, the many fraudulent construction contracts, 
the sale of stock on "through-lines" which remained 
only branches, the wasteful wars between competing 
companies, the "squeezing out" of minority stockhold- 
ers, the high stipends of tlie railroad directors, the 
land grabs and excessive subsidies obtained through 
the bribery of corrupt legislators, and other sharp 
dealings roused public sentiment against the railroad 
interests and stimulated hostility to their projects. 



In England the resistance to the railroad was largely 
from the landlord class which, with its feudal priv- 
ileges, arrayed itself against the aggressive industrial 
bourgeoisie. The temper of the opposition is to be 
seen in the remarks of Craven Fitzhardinge Berkeley, 
a member of Parliament for Cheltenham : "Nothing is 
more distasteful to me than to hear the echo of our 
hills reverberating with the noise of hissing railroad 
engines running through the heart of our hunting 
coiuitry, and destroying that noble sport [fox hunt- 
ing] to which I have been accustomed from my child- 
hood." Sir Astley Cooper, the eminent surgeon, is 
quoted as saying to Stevenson : "You are proposing 
to cut up our estates in all directions for the purpose 
of making an unnecessary road. Do you tliink for 
one moment of the destruction of property involved 
in it ? Why, gentlemen, if this sort of thing is al- 
lowed to go on, you will in a very few years destroy 
the noblesse !" ^ It was in protest against the mount- 
ing spirit of industrialism that Rtiskin, rejecting the 
"nonsensical" railroad, drove through England in a 
mail coach.® 

In the United States likewise there was opposition 
to the railroad in a similar strain. It was argued that 
its use would: "introduce manufactures into the 
heart of the country, divert industry from the primi- 
tive healthful and moral pursuits of agriculture, and 
bring on us the vices and miseries of manufacturing 
and commercial places." " Many small towns joined 
the opposition, some on the grounds that their quiet, 
would be interrupted by steam cars and the influx of 
strangers, others because business would be diverted 
to the larger cities. Stephen Van Rensselaer, for ex- 
ample, who was originally one of the wealth}' backers 
of a charter for a railroad between Albany and New 
York, later opposed the plan on the ground that 
Albau}- would be ruined because the railway would 
divert travel and traffic to Manhattan.'^ 

The vested interests of canal owners, and the senti- 
ments of legislators committed to the building of 
public canals in which there were already consider- 
able investments, were arrayed against the railroads. 
Surveyors laying out the road for the Liverpool and 
Alanchester Railway were threatened with violence 
by the manager of canal properties on the estate of 
the Duke of Bridgewater and by Lords Derby and 



'Haney, L. H.. A Congressional History of Railways In tlie United 
States to ISCO, in University of Wisconsin Bulletin, Economics and 
roliUcal Science Series, vol. ill (Madison, 190S), pp. 167-438. 247-248. 



" Quoted in P.urpess, E. W., The Function of Socialization in Social 
Evolution (Chicago. 1916), pp. lS-19. 

" Ludwig, Emil. In Defense of Our Machine Age, in New Torit Times 
Maaazine (Oct. 21, IQi."*), pp. 1-2. 23. 

" Haddock, Charles B.. An Address Delivered before the Railroad 
Convention at Montpelier, Vt. (Montpelier, 1844 ». pp. 10-14. Quoted 
in Corey. Lewis, House of Morgan (New York, 1930), p. 25. 

" Laut. A. C, The Romance of the Rails. 2 vols. (New York, 1929). 
vol. 1, p. 17. 



Technological Trends 



41 



Scfton, and farmers were incited against theni.'- 
Aided by the landed gentry and the turnpike owners, 
the canal companies campaigned so vigorously against 
the railroad that the expenditure of £27,000 was re- 
quired by the railroad interests to win Pai-liamentary 
approval." 

In the United States when, in 1812, John Stevens 
wrote liis Docinuents Tending to Prove tlie Superior 
Advantages of Railways and Steam-carriages over 
Canal Navigation addressed to the commissioners ap- 
pointed by the State of New York to explore a route 
for the Erie Canal, his proi)osals were regarded as 
ingenious but visionary, and dismissed in the face of 
the recommendation for the canal by DeWitt Clin- 
ton, Gouverneur Morris, and Robert R. Livingston. 
The latter, Steven's brother-in-law, had been granted 
a monopoly to navigate the watei's of New York State 
by steamboat and could, therefore, not be expected to 
be receptive. His letter, dated March 11, 1812, gives 
the reaction of an "expert" of the time : 

Albany, llih March 1812. 

* * * I had before heard your very ingenious 
propositions as to tlie railway communication. 
I fear, however, on matvu'e rellection, that they 
will be liable to serious objections, and ultimately 
more expensive than a canal. They must be 
double, so as to prevent the danger of two such 
heavy bodies meeting. The walls on which they 
are placed must at least be four feet below the 
surface, and three above, and must be clamped 
with iron, and even then would hardly sustain so 
heavy a weight as you propose moving at the rate 
of four miles an hour on wheels. As to wood, it 
would not last a week ; they must be covered with 
iron, and that, too, very thick and strong. The 
means of stopping these heavy carriages without a 
great shock, and of preventing them from running 
upon each other (for there would be many on the 
road at once) would be very difficult. In ca.sc of 
accidental stops, or the necessary stops to take 
wood and water, etc. many accidents would luip- 
pen. The carriage of condensed water would be 
very troublesome. Upon the whole, I fear the 
expense would be much greater than that of 
canals, without being so convenient." 

When later in 1815 in New Jersey, and in i82;j in 
Pennsylvania, Stevens received a charter for railroads, 
capitalists could not be sufficiently convinced of the 
efficacy of his proposals to give him adequate funds." 



"Smiles, Samuel, The Life of George Stephenson (Bo.ston. 1858), pp. 
197-20J. 

" Kaempffert, Waldemar, When the Locomotive Was a Mad Idea, in 
New Yorl; Times Magazine (Oct. 6, 1929). pp. 4-5, 20. 

" Stevens, John, Document.s Tending to Prove the Superior Advan- 
tages of Railways and Steam-carriages Over Canal Navigation (New 
Yorli, 1812), p. 21. 

^ Mitman, C. W., The Beginning of the Mechanical Transport Era 
in America, in Smithsonian Inst. Ann. Rept., 1929 (Washington 1930). 
pp. 507:558. 



After New York had incurred a heavy debt in the 
construction of the Erie Canal, mass meetings 
throughout the State demanded that railroad com- 
petition should not be permitted to affect the receipts 
of the canal. AVhen the charter of the Utica and 
Schenectady Railroad was gi-anted in 1833, the line 
was i)rohibitcd from carrying any property except 
the baggage of passengers, a prohibition which pre- 
vailed until 1844, when permission to carry freight 
was granted but only when navigation was suspended 
and upon the payment of canal tolls. The general 
railroad incorporation act of 1848 levied canal tolls 
from railroads parallel to canals and within 30 miles, 
and not until 1851 were restrictions of this character 
removed. In Pennsylvania also, where there were 
many State canals, popular sentiment was strong 
against railroad competition and tonnage taxes were 
imposed on the Pennsylvania Railroad that were not 
lifted until 1861.'" 

Propaganda of vested interest groups was potent. 
It was ea.sy to arouse opposition of farmers along the 
right-of-way, on the grounds that the roaring loco- 
motives would startle the cattle and prevent thein from 
grazing in safety, that hens would not lay, that the 
poisoned air from the locomotives would kill the wild 
birds and destroy vegetation, that farmhouses would 
be ignited by sparks, and property would deteriorate. 
Farmers likewise were made apprehensive lest through 
competition there would be no market for horses, and 
that their crops of oats and hay would be valueless.'' 
But the propaganda did not stop with such argu- 
ments. An eloquent divine in the United States went 
so far as to declare that the introduction of the rail- 
road would require the building of many insane asy- 
lums, as people would be driven mad with terror at 
the sight of locomotives rushing across the country 
with nothing to draw them. Railroads were likewise 
tienounced as impious because they were not foreseen 
in the Bible.'^ 

The railroad deviated from its predecessors slowly. 
Before steam power was used on the railroads, horse- 
drawn cars were employed as well as horsepower 
treadmill cars. First, wooden, and then short-lived 
and expensive cast-iron rails were used for the horse- 
drawn railroad coaches that differed so little from the 
stage coaches that they were sometimes equipped with 
arm straps to ease the jolts of the journey. In 1829 
a horse treadmill car carrying 24 passengers was given 
a price of $500 by the Charleston and Hamburg Rail- 
road. Cars equipped with a mast and sail were tried 



'« Cleveland, F. A., and Powell, F. W., Railroad Promotion and 
Capitalfzation in the United States (New Yorls, 1909), pp. 73-75. 

"Francis. John, A History of the English Railway, 2 vols. (London, 
1851), vol. i, pp. lOt-102, 107-lO.S. 

"Laut, op. fit. vol. i, pp. 12-13. 



42 



National Resources Committee 



by two railroads that would not commit themselves 
to steam until the success of George Stephenson's 
"Rocket" in England in 1829 removed most doubts.'^ 

The early inventors of steam-drawn vehicles had 
all been discouraged (see p. 43). Stephenson, too, 
had had his difficulties. In 1814 he had developed 
an engine for a coal tramway that drew 8 loaded 
wagons weighing .'50 tons at 4 miles an hour. Yet 
7 years later, when he became engineer for the 
Stockton and Darlington line, the projectors of the 
company were so doubtful of steam trans])()rtatioii 
that the act which they had passed by Parliament 
specified only that the haul should be "with men and 
horses or otherwise." -" The indiffei'ence and resist- 
ance to steam for transportation provoked Oliver 
Evans to indignant observation : "WIumi we reflect 
upon the obstinate opposition that has been made by 
a great majority at every step toward improvement ; 
from bad roads to turnpikes, from turnpike to canal, 
from canal to railways for horse carriages, it is too 
much to expect the monstrous leap from bad roads 
to railways for steam carriages at once. One step in 
a generation is all we can hope for. If the present 
shall adopt canals, the next may try the railways with 
iiorses, and the third generation use the steam 
carriage." -^ 

Dispai-ageinent of the efficiency and jiotentialities of 
the steam railroad flourished on fertile soil. Passen- 
gers were frightened by the danger that boilers would 
burst, as they sometimes did. Some asserted that loco- 
motives would never be a success l)ecause their weight 
prevented them from attaining speed. It was fre- 
quently argued that mud and dust in summer and 
snow in winter would render a railroad impractical. 
Daniel Webster, for example, doubted its ultimate suc- 
cess, arguing that frost on the rails would prevent a 
train fi-om moving, or if it did move, from being 
stopped. No reputable engineer would appear before 
the British Parliamentary Committee to testify in 
favor of steam locomotives, aiul Stephenson's request 
for a charter was at first refused. The early locomo- 
tives could in fact nin only on almost level ground; 
they lacked much power and were expensive. "- 

In 1826 an engineer, quoted with approval in Am- 
royd's work on internal navigation, declared "a i-ate of 
speed of more than G miles an hour would exceed the 
bounds set by prudence, though some of the sanguine 
advocates of railways extend this limit to 9 miles an 
hour." -' John Steven's prediction of the possibilities 



of 20 miles an hour or more was satirized in a news- 
paper in a manner that i-eveals latent fears: 

Twenty miles an hour, sir ! Wliy you will not be able to 
keep an apprentice lioy at his work! Every Saturday evening 
he must h.Tve a trip to Ohio to spend a Sunday with liis sweet- 
heart. It will encourage fliglitiness of intellect. All concep- 
tions will be exaggerated by the magnificent notions of dis- 
tance. Only a hundred miles off! Tut, nonsense, I'll step 
across, madam, and bring you your fan.^ 

In England, Nicholas Wood, whose position was 
that of "'railway expert" declared Stephenson's claim 
of a possible speed of 20 miles an hour absurd and 
added "Nobody could do more harm to the pros- 
jiects of building or generally improving such coaches 
than by spreading abroad this kind of nonsense." In 
Germany, it was proven by experts that if trains 
went at the frightful speed of 1.5 miles an hour on the 
proposed Rothschild railroads, blood would spurt 
from the travelers' noses, mouths, and ears, and also 
that the passengers would suffocate going through tun- 
nels.-'^ As late as 1834 tlie average rate of speed of 
railroads was not much greater than that attained by 
horses on good roads, so that mail contracts were some- 
times awarded to stages for making better time."" 
Almost universally there was a stress on hazards and 
iuijierfections, and a failure to conceive of the poten- 
tialities of the railways. It was not until 1800 in Ger- 
many, for example, that the use of railways for the 
transport of troops in case of war was considered.-' 
The derogatory attitude toward the steam locomotives 
is reflected in the bantering designations given them, 
such as "hell on wheels", "puffing John Bulls", "devil 
wagons", "black dragons", "snorting race horses." The 
commercial profit-making drive of the railroad buikl- 
ers did much to augment the revulsion of the agricul- 
tural groups to tliis symbol of industrialism, for they 
were not conceriieil with remedying its ugliness, smoke, 
and grime. Aesthetic considerations were con- 
sidered outside of their province. When a famous 
artist volunteered to paint a mural in a railway ter- 
minal in London his offer was refused on the ground 
that art had notliing to do with machinei-y. 

Each improvement in railroad eciuipmenl and ov- 
ganization has been marked by opposition and delay 
especially when it involved costly equipment rendering 
the older stock obsolete. Commodore Vanderbilt dis- 
missed Westinghouse and his new air brakes with the 
remark that he had lU) time to waste on fools.-^ When 
W. R. Sykes in 1874 presented plans for a system of 



'" Mitman, op. cit. p. 536. 
=° Smiles, op. cit. pp. 92, 159. 
" Mitman, op. cit. p. 529. 

=» Il.inoy, op. cit. pp. 200-201 : Cleveland and Powell, op. cit. pp. 46-66. 

"Crozet, C. in George Amio.vd. .\ Connected View of the Whole 

Inlernal Navigation of the United States (Thiladelphia. 1830). p. 570. 



=* Mitman. op. cit. p. 534. 

==Corti. E. C, Das Haus Rothschild in der Zeit seiner Blutc. 1S30- 
1871 (Leipzic, 1928) tr. by Brian and Beatrix Lunn as The Reign 
of the House of Rothschild (New Yorl,, 1928). p. 77, 94. 

''H.iney, op. cit. pp. 237-238. 

=^ Boehn and Fischel. op. cit. vol. iii. p. 129. 

= nart, nornell. The Technique of Social Progress (New ITorlc, 1931), 
p. 631. 



Technological Trends 

iuiloniatic si<rnalliiiir "n British railroads, the board of 
trade and tlio diri'ftorato of the railway companies 
maintained that personal care by signalmen was 
much better than any automatic system.-" It was 
cliarged in l!)l-2, before a Senate committee that a rail- 
road company had taken out patents on safety devices 
and had refused to mamifacture them.^" It took Jan- 
ney 10 years before he could get a founder to manu- 
facture his car-coni)ler." The design ol' Pullman 
sleepers in the United States has remained relatively 
static since it was first built in 1859. 

The wide use of electric locomotives has been de- 
layed because of capital loss on old equipment, and the 
belief that the costs of electrification and new equi])- 
ment are not justified by the volume of traffic. Rail- 
road companies vigorously opposed the legislation re- 
(juiring their installation on trains entering the limits 
of New York City through tunnels. Streamlined 
trains were tried on the continent as far back as the 
nineties, and in 1900 the Baltimore and Ohio ran one 
that made 82 miles an hour on open road with a six- 
car train. ^- But the cost of replacing the old engines 
and the rolling stock, and the need for improvement 
of road beds, have delayed their extensive introduction. 

Recent attempts to coordinate railway terminal fa- 
cilities have been marked by strenuous opposition from 
many of the directors of large railroad systems be- 
cause such coordination threatens to disrupt the hold 
they have on freight traffic in many of the important 
centers of the country, and by the railroad brother- 
hoods who seek protection for railroad workers, who 
will be displaced. 

The railroad interests are now in the position that 
the turnpike and canal interests were at the beginning 
of railroad history. As entrenched groups having 
difficulty to compete because of the costs of moderniz- 
ing their obsolete equipment, they are combating the 
increasing competition of auto trucking and bus 
transportation by devious obstructions — legislative and 
otherwise. They are likewise arrayed in opposition 
through lobbies and through widespread pi-opaganda 
against the extension of waterways. 

Automohile. — There were many preciu'sors of the 
modern automobile that failed to survive the opposi- 
tion and apathy of their times. A three- wheeled car- 
riage driven by two steam cylinders was invented by 
Joseph Cugnot in 1769 which actually moved a load 
in addition to its own weight, but it did not succeed 
in capturing popular support. In England when Wil- 
liam Murdock built a one-cvlinder steam-driven ve- 



^Hatfleld. H. S, The Inventor and His World (London. 1933). 
p. 10.5, 

'"U. S. Congress. Senate. Committee on Patents. Revision of Statutes 
Relating to Patents: Hearings. 67th Cong.. 2d Sess. (1922), p. 205. 

'^ Mitman, op. clt. p. 545. 

" Leonard, J. N,, Tools of Tomorrow, New York, 1935, pp, 205-206, 



43 

hide about 1784. Watt, his employer, who opposed the 
use of steam engines for road transportation, dis- 
couraged him. Maryland in 1787 granted Oliver 
Evans rights for a steam wagon with the comment 
that "it woidd doubtless do no good, but certainly 
could do no harm", and later his project was called 
chimerical. Sir Goldsworthy Gurney's steam coach 
made regular trips between Cheltenham and Gloucester 
in the 182G's, and although it was financially success- 
ful, it was abandoned because of the opposition of the 
landowners, stagecoach proprietors, and the breeders 
and users of horses. All aninud lovers were mar- 
shaled in defense of the horse by vested-interest 
groups, and the steam coach was denounced as dan- 
gerous to the health of the community because of the 
smoke, steam, and hot ashes it left in the streets. 

In the iseo's it appeared that mechanical trans- 
portation had come to stay in England, but again the 
opposition of horse breeders and railroads stood in the 
way. They secured passage of an act of Parliament, 
in 1861, for the regulation of horseless vehicles which 
practically made it impossible for them to operate. 
This act provided that tires must be at least 3 inches 
wide, that engines must consume their own smoke, that 
each vehicle must have at least two drivers, and that 
no vehicle was to exceed 10 miles an hour in the 
country and 5 miles an hour in the towns. In 1865 
an even more drastic act was passed requiring three 
drivers for each vehicle, one of whom must precede 
the carriage at a distance of 60 yards, carrying a red 
flag by day and a red lantern by night. Speed was 
reduced to 4 miles an hour for the country and 2 
miles an hour for the towns, and local communities 
were given the right to tax the operation of vehicles 
and to prescribe hours of operation which they did 
in a discriminatory manner. With such restrictions, 
v.-hich were not repealed until 1896, the steam carriage 
was doomed.'" In the United States, George Brayton 
fitted a gasoline engine to a Providence streetcar in 
1873, and another to a Pittsburgh omnibus in 1878, 
but both were denied the streets.''* 

The automobile propelled by the internal-combustion 
engine made its way slowly against ignorance, apathy, 
and competition. In 1890 and 1891 the Chicago 
World's Fair advertised universally for exhibits in 
"steam, electric, and other road vehicles propelled by 
other than animal power", but made no specific men- 
tion of the internal-combustion engine. One of the 
greatest sales obstacles the gasoline car had to over- 
come was the widespread conviction that Edison would 
invent a superior and cheaper electric automobile. As 



•^ Hunt, F. B,, Self-Propelled Cars Sought .500 Years Ago, in New 
York Times, Apr. 27. 1930, p. 11. 

" Duryea, C. E., "It Doesn't Pay to Pioneer", in Saturday Evening 
Post, vol, cciil (1931), pp, 30, 98. 102. 



44 



National Resources Committee 



late as 1896, A. R. Sennett read a paper before the 
British Association for the Advancement of Science 
iii which he maintained that the steam engine rather 
than the internal-combustion engine would prevail 
and that petroleum propulsion had to improve a great 
deal before heavy loads could be dealt with or pas- 
sengere conveyed "free from excessive vibration and 
offensive exhalations and with a degree of luxury at 
all comparable witli that whicli we have come to 
identify with horse-drawn veliicles." He likewise con- 
tended that horseless carriages could not be widely 
use<l because they required great skill, inasmuch as 
the driver "has not the advantage of the intelligence 
of the horse in shaping his path."'^^ In a coiiununica- 
tion to the city council in 1908, the mayor of Cin- 
chmati declared that the driving of an automobile 
requires such tjuaiifications that no woman is physically 
fit to undertake the task. 

Automobiles did not develop beyond an embryonic 
stage for many years and their possibilities were not 
envisioned. The first cars were really only horse car- 
riages with crude power plants. It was not until 1909 
that left-hand drive and center conti'ol were intro- 
duced. The first Packard car body delivered to the 
manufacturers had a whip.stock on the dash-board. 
Breakdowns were frequent. Repairs were distress- 
ingly difficult and expensive. Parts were not standard- 
ized and not easy to get. The automobile came to be 
known as the "'rich man's toy", and there was no con- 
ception of it as a reliable and indispensable means 
of transportation. As late as 1902, when President 
Theodore Ropsevelt rode in an automobile it was fol- 
lowed by a horse-drawn carriage in case of an acci- 
dent. Not until 1909 did production figures of pas- 
senger cars pass the 100,000 mark, and the production 
of motor trucks did not reach 10,000 until 1911.=" 

The attitude toward the automobile was more than 
apathetic; it was scornful. In 1895 Samuel Bowles 
II, the editor of the Springfield Republican, refused 
an invitation to ride in the car with which Duryea 
had won the first American automobile race, on the 
grounds that it was incompatible with the dignity of 
his position.^' Lord Montague vividly describes the 
prevalent hostile attitudes toward the early motorists: 
"Among our friends we were considered mad. In the 
press we were held up to public derision, sometimes 
as fools, sometimes as knaves; and every accident that 
happened, even remotely connected with the motor car, 
was attributed to the 'new Juggernaut' as it was called. 
The papers were almost without exception hostile." =' 



=* Quoted in Bobbins, I.. IT.. "Old Cry 'Got a Ilorsc' Echoed In the 
Sky". In New York Times M.-inazine. Dec. 23. 1928. pp. 4. 13. 

"i AutomoMle Mnnnfncturers Association. Automobile Facts anil Fig- 
ures (New York. 1935). p. 4. 

" Duryea, op. clt., p. 102. 

"* Bobbins, op. cit., p. 4. 



Tlie task of changing pojiiilar attitudes was a para- 
mount one before automobiles could be sold. Slogans 
such as "Get a Horse" and "Down with Road Hogs" 
had to be replaced by "Goodbye Horse" and "Nothing 
to Watch but the Road." Songs like "Get Out and 
Get Under" were counteracted by "My Merry Olds- 
mobile." Active propaganda was necessary to combat 
the influence of clerg3'men, who Hayed "automobilitis" 
as deleterious to morals and religion. European 
monarchs delayed long before they admitted that an 
automobile was dignified enough for them. Emperor 
Francis Joseph I of Austria, who died in 1916, for 
exami)le never entered an automobile. Horse-drawn 
carriages are still used in royal processions, and they 
likewise are utilized widely for funerals in all 
countries. 

Financiers were in nowise ahead of popular senti- 
ment in reference to the automobile. They had no 
conception of its future devcloi)ment, and looked 
askance upon it. Both R. E. Olds and Charles E. 
Duryea testifj' as to the hostile reception they received 
in Wall Street where the bankers could not see the 
wisdom of investing a few thousand dollars in what 
they considered a plaything. Chauncey M. Depew 
confessed that he warned his nephew not to invest 
$5,000 in Ford stocks because "nothing has come along 
to beat the horse." W. C. Durant's prediction that 
some day 500.000 automobiles would bo manufactured 
annually in the United States is said to have pi'ovoked 
George W. Perkins to declare "If he has any sense, 
he'll keep those notions to himself if he ever tries to 
borrow money." J. P. Morgan & Co. refused to buy 
for $5,000,000 in 1908 a block of securities which were 
later incorporated in General Motors and rose to a 
value of $200,000,000.=" The financiers exaggerated 
the numerous mechanical imperfections that existed in 
the early cars, stressed the absence of good roads, were 
deterred by litigations over the early patents, and 
above all could not envisage a profitable market. 

Changes in the automobile that would increase its 
sales possibilities by making its use simpler and its 
power greater were accepted slowly. The self-starter 
was invented in 1899, and installed on one brand of car 
in 1902. It was impossible, however, to get manu- 
facturers to spend money on "refinements", and by 
1912 less than 5 percent of the manufacturers were 
offering cars with self-starters as standard equipment.*" 

French auto manufacturers perfected a V-shaiied 
eight-cylinder motor several years before American 
manufacturers showed the feasibility of producing an 
eight-cj'linder car in quantity. In 1914, such a car was 



^' MncManus. T. F., and Beasley, Norman. Men, Money, and Motors 
(New York, 1929), pp. 5, 113, 117. 

•o Epstein, R. C The Automobile Industry (Chicago, 1928) . pp. 105- 
107, 110. 



Technological Trends 



45 



produced, yet by 192(), production still consisted of 64 
2)ercent fours, 34 percent sixes and 2 percent eights. 
It was not until 1932 that Ford — who had likewise 
delayed adopting the standard selective three-speed 
transmission until December 1927 — deserted the four- 
cylinder types to manufacture eiglits. By 19154, when 
fours practically ceased being manufactured, eight- 
cylinder cars still comprised only 40 percent of pro- 
duction/' A large portion of British automobiles were 
equipped with four-wheel brakes in 1923, when only 
3 percent of American cars were so equipped; it was 
not until 1927 that as many as 90 percent had four- 
wlieel brakes as standard equipment/- It required 7 
years for the sui^erior balloon tire to lead over tlie 
high-pressure tire. The large difference in costs be- 
tween the closed car and (he open car caused the manu- 
facture of open cars to exceed closed until 1925; by 
1935 the open car had practically disappeared/^ The 
problem of disturbing the market, through deprecia- 
tion of price of products, and the rigidity of large- 
scale enterprise, have been potent factors in delaying 
acceptance of innovations in automobile production. 

The delay in the development of interurban bus 
transportation due to the competition of railroads has 
already been mentioned. The equally intense and dis- 
criminatory competition against busses by streetcar 
comjjanies possessing "jjerpetual" franchises delayed 
the development of auto-bus transportation for 
decades. 

Streetcars. — The history of streetcar transportation 
was likewise marked by insistent opposition in all its 
phases. The franchise granted the New York and Har- 
lem Railroad in 1831, authorized tracks only in what 
was then an outlying district of New York City and 
even these were to be removed if they proved to be an 
impediment. AVealthy citizens successfully opposed 
the extension of the tracks southward for many years. 
A. T. Stewart, the department-store owner, spent over 
a half million dollars in a quarter-of-a-century fight 
against replacing the old stages with more modern 
horse cars, on the grounds that the streetcars would 
keep his fashionable isatrons from dri\'ing their car- 
riages to his store.^^ 

When in 1858-59 George Francis Train got permis- 
sion to lay tracks for streetcars in Great Britain, his 
plans had to be abandoned as unsuccessful largely be- 
cause the rails projected above the surface of the high- 
way obstructing other vehicular traffic.*^ 



"Automotive Inaustrirs (Feb. 22, 193G>, p. 2.39. 

"Epstein, op. cit.. p. 110-115. 

♦^Automobile Manufacturer.s .Association, Automobile Facts and Fig- 
ures (New York, 1035). p. 11. 

■"L.vnch, D. T., "Boss" Tweed (New York, 10271, p. SO. 

"Talbot, Frederick A., AW About Inventions and Discoveries (New 
York, 1016). p. 87. 



Horse car lines continued to be installed in the 
1880's in New York City after cable cars had proven 
successful in San Francisco and they persisted in use 
until the 1900's. Strenuous opposition of civic and 
municipal authorities to posts planted in streets and 
wiles across highways for overhead conductors delayed 
the introduction of electric trolley lines. Cincinnati, 
whicli began with a two-trolley overhead system, has 
continued it. 

The decision of the Appellate Division, First De- 
partment of the New York Courts in 1896, which re- 
fused to approve the building of a subway, began with 
a quotation from St. Luke and continued: "The proba- 
bilities indicate that after sinking $51,000,000 in it 
(the subway) without being able to complete it, the 
enterprise would liave to be abandoned * * * ^\\ 
that beheld it would begin to mock, saying 'this city 
began to build and was not able to finish'." ^^ Pi-op- 
erty owners prevented the first subway from being dug 
along the most desirable routes. Plans for building 
a subway in Chicago have never been realized, al- 
though they have repeatedly been considered. The 
costs of obsolescence and the vested rights of francliise 
have prevented urban transportation from keeping 
abreast of technological changes. 

Marine Transportation. — GilfiUan, who has made a 
sociological study of the invention of the shifD, de- 
clares in reference to resistance to change in marine 
transportation: 

The jib anil oilier fore-.Tiid-nft .sails, tlic nidtler, steamboat, 
screw, high pressure, surface condensation, compound and 
triple expansion. Improved rudders and rotorship have had to 
fight their way. Only the compensated compass do we recall 
as meeting what might be called an immediate acceptance." 

Thei'e is especially well-documented evidence on the 
ojiposition to the use of steamboats. John Fitch was 
reviled and harassed as a deranged and suspicious 
character. In his memoirs he tells of his reception 
when in 1787 he appealed for financial support : 

[I was treated] more lil^e a slave than a freeman. * * • 
Not only that ; I have been continually seized with duns from 
our workmen, and inbarassed with Constables, for debts; and 
I was of so bare and mean an appearance that every decent 
man must and ought to dispize me from my appearance. Not 
only that, but dare not scarsely show my face in my own 
Lodgings; * * * [i] -^vas obliged to suffer just indignities 
from my landlord and be henpecked by the women. Added to 
this, there was the Most Powerful combination against me, 
who thought that they could not serve God or themselves 
better than by saying every ill natured thing they could of 
me." 



"Quoted in Sullivan, .Mark. Our Times, 6 vols. (New Y'ork. ]026-:i5), 
vol. i, pp. 51.5-516. 

"Gillillan, S. C, The Sociology of Invention (ChicaKO, 1035), p. 108. 

"Quoted in Boyd, Thomas, Poor John Fitch (New York. 1035), pp. 
213-214. 



46 



National Resources Committee 



Tbe Pcnnsj'lvania Assembly, which had at that time 
subsidized Whitehead Humphries' experiments with a 
steel furnace, refused a year's loan to Fitch by a vote 
of 32 to 28. To raise monej- which he urgently needed, 
Fitch wrote to Benjamin Franklin as head of the 
American Philosophical Societj', offering to sell to the 
societj- for a nominal sum, a model of the steam engine 
which Franklin had suggested sliould be made. The lat- 
ter never responded and the society took no action. In 
1790, when Fitch's steamboat was making technically 
successful trips on the Delaware River, with its schetl- 
ule of daily sailings advertised in the Philadelphia 
daily newspapers, Benjamin Franklin Buche, the 
philosopher's grandson, ridiculed the boat us follows: 

A boat on this construction, barring all accidents of breaking 
paddles, cranks, gudgeons, watehwhcels. chiuns, Loggerheads, 
cocks, valves, condensers, pins, bolts, pistons, cylinders, boilers, 
and God only knows how many more useful iiarts, would almost 
stem the tide of the Delaware • • » " 

The chief difficulty was in drawing passengers away 
from the shallops and the stagecoaches; lures of beer, 
sausages, rum, comfortable cabins, and faster trips did 
not succeed in doing so. 

"The God of Fortune was a Blind whimsical Jade !", 
Fitch once wrote, '"Here she got Job caimonized for a 
Saint while I must bair the Ridicule of the World." 
His difficulties were not diminished by the fact that 
he was an anti-Federalist and a Deist.'" His more 
conventional rival, James Rumsey, who independently 
and in secret invented the steamboat about the same 
time, also met ridicule and disparagement. 

Robert Fulton made a connnercial success of the 
steamboat and was acclaimed. But a note written in 
1807 shows how his work was scorned while he was 
experimenting: 

When I was building my first steamboat, the project was 
viewed liy the pviblic either with indifference, or with contempt, 
as a visionary scheme. My friends, indeed, were civil, but they 
were shy. They listened with patience to my explanations, 
but with a settled cast of incredulity on their countenances. 
As I had occasion daily to pass to and from the shipyard 
while my boat was in progress, I have often loitered unknown 
near the idle groups of strangers, gathering in little circles, 
and heard various inquiries as to the object of this new vehi- 
cle. The language was uniformly that of scoru, sneer, or 
ridicule. The loud laugh often rose at my expense : the dry 
jest; the wise calculation of losses and expenditures; the dull 
but endless repetition of "Fulton's folly." Never did a single 
encouraging remark, a bright hope, a warm wish, cross my 
path. Silence itself was but politeness, veiling its doubts, or 
hiding its reproaches." 

Those who loaned him money to coiitiiiiie his plans 
on the steamboat stipulated that their names be with- 



hehl for fear of ridicide and loss of status were it 
known that they supported so "foolhardy" a project. 

The idea of propelling ships by steam met opjiosition 
in Englanel and on the Continent as well. In 1804, a 
bill was introduced in the House of Commons at the 
instance of the British Admiralty, against the intro- 
duction of steam power in the British navy. England 
had only 20 steamers by 1815, and it was not until 183:3 
that Britain built her first steam-driven warship. The 
first steamer on the Continent was one that ran between 
Paris and Rouen in 1816. There were no steamers on 
the Rhine or the Elbe until 1818, nor on the Danube 
until 1830." 

Other advances in marine transportation met resist- 
ance. The United States Navy hesitated about adopt- 
ing Ericsson's screw propeller." "Incredulously and 
pityingly they [shippers and shipbuilders] often 
looked upon me", writes Flettner, "and they often 
shrugged their shoulders when I mentioned that in a 
storm or hurricane this free rudder thrown about by 
the huge waves would swing back and forth without 
tlie steadiness of the ship's course being affected in the 
slightest degree * * * they even looked upon me 
as an iinj)ractical dreamer."'* 

Although the first iron barge luul been made to float 
in Yorkshire in 1777, arguments against the use of iron 
ships continued for decades. Wilkinson wrote in 1787, 
when his iron boat was launched: "It answers all my 
expectations, and lias convinced the unbelievers who 
were 999 in a thousand. It will be only a 9-days 
wonder and then will be like Columbus' egg." But 
the relative cheapness of wood, the early difficulties in- 
volved in jireparing iron plate, and the opposition of 
the powerful shipbuilding interests, long delayed the 
building of iron ships. Men continued to insist, more- 
over, that iron ships would not float, that they woidd 
damage more easily than wooden ships when grouiul- 
ing, that it would be difficult to preserve the iron bot- 
toms from rust, weeds, and barnacles, and that iron 
would deflect the compass.'"' Ericsson's plan for the 
Monitor was first rejected by the United States Navy 
because it was claimed (hat this iron battleship lacked 
stability. 

Leonardo de Vinci records that he suppressed his 
invention of the submarine because "it was too satanic 
to be i)laced in the hands of unregenerate men." '° The 
inventor of the submarine, John P. Holland, was con- 
sidered insane for his persistent experiments with 
imder-water transportation. The fact that the experi- 
ments were financed with money of the Fenian move- 



'• Quoted In Boyd. op. clt. p. 229-230. 
"Boyd. op. cit. p. 187, 205. 

"lies, George, Leading American Inventors (New York. 1912), p. 
60-61. 



'■= Bochn and Fischel. op. clt. vol. ii, p. 24-20. 
" llo!*. op. clt. p. 232. 

"Kk'ttnor. .\nton. Mcin Wee zum Rotor (Leipzlc. 192C) tr. by F. O. 
Wlllhofft a,s The Story of the Rotor (New York, 1926). p. 19. 
"Gilfillan. S. C, InvcntinB tlip Ship (Chicago. 1935). p. 149. 
MMumford, Lewis. Technics and Civilization (New York, 1934), p. 85 



Technological Trends 



47 



ment which sought to free Ireland from Britisli 
imperialism enhanced the ridicule and skepticism that 
greeted his work.^" H. G. Wells joined the popular 
disparagement of submarine, writing : "I must confess 
that my imagination, in spite even of spurring, refuses 
to see any sort of subuuirines doing anything but suf- 
focate its crew and founder at sea." ** By 1898 Hol- 
land had built a successful submarine which was sold 
to the United States Government. It was not how- 
ever, until the World War that the submarine came 
generally into use. 

Airplane. — Attitudes toward the possibility of the 
invention of the airplane went beyond healtliy skepti- 
cism even on the part of engineers and scientists. Tlie 
early trials which ended in disasti'ous failure and the 
many fantastic attempts to realize man's hopes to 
imitate the birds gave gi'ounds for doubt of success 
and occasioned ridicule of those that hazarded. In 
1871, the New York Times proclaimed editorially that 
there was "abundant precedent for the supposition 
that the laws of gravity will always prove too much, 
in the aerial field, for the ambitious dexterity of 
man." ^° Later when Professor Samuel Pierpont 
Langley, secretary of the Smithsonian Institution, pre- 
dicted early establishment of an air transportation 
that could attain unprecedented speeds, the Popular 
Science Monthly rebuked him, saying : 

The secretary of the Smithsonian Institution should Ije the 
representative of American science and should be extremely 
careful not to do anything that may lend itself to an inter- 
pretation that will bring injury on the scientific work of the 
Government or of the country * * *. He could have placed 
his scientific knowledge at the disposal of Army otficers and 
expert mechanicians, and this would have been better than to 
attempt to become an inventor in a field where success is 
doubtful and where failure is likely to bring discredit, however 
\mdeserved, on scientific work." 

An editorial in the New York Times in 1904 saw 
no possible objection if those interested in flying cared 
to indulge in "aii"j' persiflage" across the "walnuts 
and wine", but averred that they "should not expect 
those who have not dined with them to take them quite 
seriously." "' Simon Newcomb's attitude was defeat- 
ist. He did nothing to use his scientific authority to 
stimulate further research, in fact discouraged it, at 
a time when success was just in the offing, by his 
widely publicized statement: 

Tlio demonstration tlint no possible combination of known 
substances, known forms of machinery, and known forms of 
force can be united in a practicable machine by which men 
shall fiy long distances through the air, seems to the writer 



as complete as it is possible for the (leraonstration of any 
l)liysical fact to be." 

Helmholtz likewise questioned the possibility of the 
success of a heavier than air machine.*"' H. G. Wells 
acknowledged that air flying would be nuistered, but 
he failed to see its possibilities declaring: "I do not 
think it at all probable that aeronautics will ever come 
into play as a serious modification of transport and 
communication." "^ 

With the invention of the light-weight internal-com- 
bustion engine, successful airplanes were flown. Yet 
the British AVar Ministry refused to negotiate with 
manufacturers of airplanes in 1907, 2 j'ears after 
AVright's first flight was officially recorded and 4 years 
after his first actual flight."^ Previous to April 192G, 
when it established a separate class for aircraft, the 
German I'atent Office had the same classification for 
airplanes as for children's toys, popular amusements, 
and shooting galleries.'^'' 

It has not been merely fear of flying that has de- 
layed the popular use of flying as a means of transpor- 
tation. The establishment of airdromes at great dis- 
tances from the centers of large cities because of the 
high prices demanded for the land by property hold- 
ers has contributed toward retarding the development 
of air service. The owners of existing transportation 
services, the railroads, steamboats, and autobus lines, 
as well as automobile manufacturers have propagan- 
dized against the extension of air routes. Recently in 
Alaska the drivers of dog teams and those that sold 
them fish, were vigorous in their opposition to air mail 
service. Established airplane companies have dis- 
couraged new capital from entering the field as is re- 
flected in an editorial in the Business Chonicle, 
January 27, 1930 : 

The airplane business is to gravitate into control of com- 
paratively few strong corporations as has the manufacture of 
automobiles. The day for creation of new factories doubtless 
passed during 1928 and 1929. A few infant industries to sup- 
ply airplane materials might yet gain foothold in Pacific Coast 
States, but community boosters will do wisely to move very 
slowly now in encouraging any new plane manufacturing en- 
terprise. In most cases the money and effort can better be 
devoted to some other more promising project." 

Communication 

Wriflnr/. — Innovations in the field of communica- 
tion have likewise been opposed at every step, in spite 
of their utility in diffusing and perpetuating knowl- 
edge and thus augmenting man's control over his en- 



>" Talbot, op. cit. p. 71-84. 

=« Wells, H. G.. Anticipations (London, 1902). p. 217. 
"■ New York Times, June 25, 1871. 

""The Progress of Science: Aerial Navigation, in Popular Science 
Montlily, vol. l.xiv (1903-4) 95-96. 

I" Quoted in editorial in New York Times. Mar. 30 1931. 



=* Newcomb. Simon, Sidelights on Astronomy (New York, 1906). p. 345. 

" Flettner, op. cit. p. 92. 

" Wells, op. cit. p. 35. 

■"Literary Digest, vol. xciii (June 2."i, 1927). p. 9. 

"Flettner, op. cit. p. 92. 

"Business Cbronicle, vol. xxx (1930), p. 1. 



48 



National Resources Committee 



vironmont. Priestly classes in many early societies 
resisted the recording of tradition in writing, and the 
extension of literacy has frequently been opposed by 
ruling classes as a ferment to discontent. 

Writing as a conserving instrument is itself ex- 
tremely conservative. Scripts acquire highly emo- 
tionalized attachments, and become identified with cul- 
tural and nationalist symbolism. The result is that 
styles of ■writing and alphabets become tenacious. 
The ancient and medieval scripts prevailed for over 
five centuries, the Gothic for over eight centuries, and 
is today being revived in Nazi Germany. Even when 
one script displaces another, the older fonn persists 
in use for special purposes."* Organized resistanco 
has been made to changes in alphabets as when the 
elimination of three letters from the Bulgarian alpha- 
bet in 1922 provoked the resignation of two ministers."^ 
The Latinizing of the Turkish alphabet was strenu- 
ously opposed especially in religious circles. Simpli- 
fied spelling has aroused not only ridicule and dis- 
paragement, but at times bitter resentment. 

Tlie same conservatism is evident in nvnnerical nota- 
tion. In 1299 an edict was issued in Florence forbid- 
ding bankers to use Arabic numerals, and Roman 
numerals are still widely used especially for cere- 
monial purposes." Continued use of Newton's nota- 
tion by English mathematicians throughout the eight- 
eenth century, and even by many English writers on 
mechanics today, while the French and German mathe- 
maticians usually employed that of Leibnitz, created a 
barrier between English and Continental nuvthematics 
that impeded their development.'* Opposition to tho 
enforced or even optional use of the metric system of 
measurements in the United States has been based on 
sentimental appeals to a poetic tradition and postu- 
lated superiority of the English system as well as upon 
arguments based on the costs of the change. An 
attempt by leading silk merchants in Foochow to 
adopt a standardized lineal measure failed because 
most of the merchants refused to use it, and there 
remain in China several kinds of units of lineal meas- 
ure — the Shanghai foot, the tailor's foot, the carpen- 
ter's foot, and the engineering foot — all of differing 
lengths. 

Printing. — The spread of block printing westward 
from China was checked by the opposition of the 
Islamic world. Resistance arose among the callig- 
raphers in the scriptoria of Cordova and in other 
Islamic cultural centers where there was large scale 



"^ Stern. Bernhard .T.. Writinc in Encyclopaedia of the Social Sciences, 
vol. XV (New York. 1035). pp. .^)00-502. 

"•tJUmann. B. L.. Ancient Writing and Its Influence (New York, 
1932). p. 221. 

"•Taylor, Isaac, The Alphabet, 2 vols. (London. 1S83). vol. ii. p. 203. 

■" Wolf, Abraham, History of Science and Technology in the 16th and 
17th Centuries (London. 1935), p. 217. 



production of superb texts, far superior in artistic 
merit to the products of early printing. When per- 
mission was granted in 1727 for the establishment of a 
printing press in Constantinople, with the proviso that 
the Koran should not be lirinted, the venture none the 
less aroused such intense opposition that it was aban- 
doned and printing was not introduced again for about 
a century. The Koran was never printed in any 
Islamic country until a few years ago. The reason 
given was the belief that to touch the name of Allah 
witii a cleaning brush made of hog bristles was 
blasphemy. In India, the Brahman caste successfully 
resisted the introduction of printing until a printing 
press was set up at Goa by the Portuguese late in the 
sixteenth century.^- The introduction of printing was 
delayed in Paris 20 j'ears by the hostility of the guild 
of scribes. 

The first printed books w-ere crude, costly. ;iiul in- 
ferior to the artistic work of tlie skilled calligrajihers 
of the guilds, and therefore resistance is easily expli- 
cable. But even as printing improved, there was, for 
a long time, little realization of its possibilities as an 
agency in the dissemination of knowledge and propa- 
ganda. When this realization came, printing was 
hedged in by drastic gDvernmental restrictions, often 
initiated bj' church authorities, as when Leipzig 
])rinters were forbidden to print Protestant literature 
for about two decades.^^ A widespread sentiment 
against printing was expressed by Governor Berkeley 
of Virginia, when he said in 1670 : "* * * I thank 
God there are no free schools, nor printing, and I hope 
we shall not have them these hundred years; for learn- 
ing has brought disobedience and heresy and sects into 
the world, and printing has divulged them and libels 
against the best government.'" '* 

Types, as in the case of scripts, are exceedingly con- 
servative and become surcharged with emotional tones 
that form the basis of intense resentment to changes. 
Many newspapers and magazines retain the same types 
and formats for long periods after they have become 
outmoded, in order not to alienate their readers. 

New machinery in the printing industry in the com- 
posing room, the pressroom, and the bindery, has been 
delayed by the costs involved in the obsolescence of old 
equipment and by workers faced with unemployment. 
When the stereotyping machine was first introduced 
by William Ged in Edinburgh in 1725, opposition was 
so strong that it was discontinued. The linotype ma- 
chine, which, when originally patented, was not re- 
ganled by printers as a practical machine, supplanted 



"Carter, T. P., The Invention of Trinting and It.«; Spread Westward 
(rev. ed. by D. C. McMurtrie, New York, 1931), pp. 112-113. 

'^ Duffus, U. L.. "Printing and Publishing" Encyclopaedia of the Social 
Sciences, vol. xxi (New York, 1934), pp. 406-415. 

"* Quoted In Simons. .\. M., Social Forces in American History (New 
York. 1911), pp. 47, 48. 



Technological Trends 



49 



straight matter typesetting by hand slowly between 
188G and 1903, without strenuous opposition on the 
part of labor because of agreements with the printers' 
unions over employment and output. Mechanically 
fed platen and cylinder presses were adopted grad- 
ually in commercial printing, comprising less than 4 
percent of presses in 1913 and still only G6 percent in 
1921." Printers have led the opposition to lithograph- 
ing and photographic processes that compete with 
them. 

Typewriter. — For a long time after the typewriter 
was actually produced for sale in 1874, the response to 
it was apathetic when not overtly hostile. The question 
of costs loomed large. Many questioned the value of 
paying approximately $12.5 for a machine that would 
do the same work as a 1-cent pen. The description 
of the early typewriter given by J. G. Priestly clearly 
indicates one of the causes in the delay of its reception : 
"It (the typewriter) had the old double keyboard- 
typing then was a muscular activity. If you were not 
familiar with these vast keyboards, your hand wan- 
dered over them like a child lost in a wood. The noise 
might have been that of a shipyard on the Clyde. You 
would no more have thought of carrying about one 
of those grim structures than you would luive thought 
of travelling with a piano." ""■ 

Tlie value of the typewriter in commercial activities 
was hardly glimpsed even after it becamie more effi- 
cient. Questions of the status of women in society 
and of etiquette became involved in the controversies 
over its utilization. The girl typist became a symbol 
of women's emancipation and aroused responses ac- 
cordingly. In 1881 when the New York Y. W. C. A. 
announced typing lessons for women, vigorous pro- 
tests were made on the grounds that the female con- 
stitution would break down completely under the 
strenuous 6 months' course offered. As for etiquette, 
it was, and still is in some quarters, considered bad 
taste to use the typewriter for personal letters. The 
machine was long looked upon as affectation, a pretense 
to authorship or professionalism on the part of a 
layman. Some people loolved upon the receipt of typed 
letters as an aspersion upon their literacy. All these 
factors tended to delay the wide utilization of the type- 
writer until recent years. 

The production of typewriters is highly concentrated 
and there is no outlet for patents on new inventions 
except through a few manufacturers. Such monopolis- 
tic control is also characteristic of the mimeograpii 
industry where the dominant corporation which con- 
trolled, in 1915, 85.1 percent of the commerce in the 
United States in stencil duplicating machines, has sup- 



pressed innovations by compelling the users of such 
machines to purchase stencil duplicating paper, ink, 
and other duplicating supplies exclusively from them.'" 

Telegraph and Telephone. — There was an indif- 
ferent response to Morse's invention of the telegraph 
patented in 1837. Few were interested when he ex- 
hibited it, for its uses were not compi-ehended and it 
was regarded merely as a scientific toy. When Morse 
first asked for $;iO,000 as a governmental ajjpropria- 
tion for an experimental telegraph line, it was re- 
garded by some of the legislators as fantastic. One 
suggested (hat half that sum be spent on mesmerism 
aiul another that Millerism be the recipient of the 
other lialf. Morse was finally awarded the appropria- 
tion in 1843 by a margin of eight votes. Later the 
Government declined to buy the invention for $100,000. 
The first apparatus was clumsy, with a weight of 185 
pounds as compared to less than 4 ounces in 1912. 
So little confidence did the public have in the telegrajjh 
that 2 years after the line had been installed, the 
receipts for one quarter were only $203.4:5 at the rate 
of 1 cent for four characters. 

In England, wliere the British Admiralty had de- 
clared in 1816 that telegraphs were totally unneces- 
sary, Morse's telegraph met the opposition of a rival 
method. Wheatstone and Cooke's needle instrument, 
which required two lines to complete a circuit, had 
already been installed. On October 9, 1845, Morse 
wrote : 

I have many obstiicles to contend against, particularly the 
opposition of the proprietors of existing telegraphs. But that 
mine is the best system, I have now no doubt; all that I have 
seen, while they are ingenious, are more complicated, more ex- 
pensive, less eflicicMit, and easier deranged. It may take some 
time to establish the superiority of mine over the others, for 
there is the usual array of jirejudice and interest against a 
system which throws others out of use." 

The telegraph companies, once entrenched, did not 
encourage and were slow to respond to the innovations 
in their own and related fields. They did not encour- 
age the invention of the cable and even after the first 
cable had been laid they continued their efforts to 
have transoceanic communication by way of Alaska 
and Siberia. Neither the telegraph nor the cable com- 
panies invented the telephone. Bell's offer to sell it 
to the Western Union Telegraph Co. for $100,- 
000 was rejected. In 1883 eight leading business men 
in New York City met to decide whether to buy rights 
to the Bell telephone or the printing telegraph, both 
of which were offered at the same price, $300,000, and 
they decided to buy the latter."^ When the telephone 



''Baker. E. F., Displacement of Men by Machines (New Vorli. 1933), 
pp. 15. 16. 

"Priestley, J. B.. English Journey (London, 1934). pp. 122-123. 



" Federal Trade Commls.sion, Annual Report for the Fiscal Year Ended 
June 30,'l917 (Washington. D. C, 1917), pp. 60, 61. 

'"lies. op. cit. p. 160, 164, 167. 

" Pesssjnden, R. A., "The Inventions of Reginald A. Fessenden" in 
Radio News. vol. vi (1925), 1140-1142, 1851-185.3, 1999. 



50 



National Resources Committee 



began seriously to compete with the telegraph, and to 
menace its interests, the telegraph companies accentu- 
ated public skepticism by a campaign of ridicule and 
disparagement. The inventor was characterized as a 
crank and a charlatan. His work was the deviTs work, 
disturbing the tranquillity of the countryside, and in- 
ducing break-downs among its users. The widespread 
currency of this attitude even among the sophisticated 
is seen in Thorstein Veblen's statement as late as 1914 
that the use of the telephone "involves a very appre- 
ciable nervous strain and its ubiquitous presence con- 
duces to an unremitting nervous tension and unrest 
wherever it goes." '" Imperfections in the apparatus 
and in service were stressed. The plan to connect 
cities, villages, and isolated homes into one compre- 
hensive system was denounced as folly. 

The monopolistic control over the basic telephone 
patents which the Bell corporation acquired made it 
impossible to introduce improvements without its sanc- 
tion. Thus when Edison. Blake, and Berliner im- 
proved the Bell telephone, their important contribu- 
tions could not be utilized without the basic in- 
vention, and so they came under the control of the 
owners of Bell patents.'^ In 1937, the Federal 
Conmiunications Commission declared that the Bell 
Telephone Sj'stem suppressed 3,400 unused patents 
in order to forestall competition. Of these, 1,307, 
it said, were "patents voluntarily shelved bj- the Amer- 
ican company and its patent-holding subsidiaries for 
competitive jjurposes." In answer to the company's 
declaration that the other 2,126 patents wei'e not used 
because of "superior alternatives available", the Com- 
mission reported: "This is a type of patent shelving 
or patent suppression which results from excessive pat- 
ent protection acquired for the purpose of suppressing 
competition. The Bell System has at all times sup- 
pressed competition in wire telephony or telegraphy 
through patents. It has always withheld licenses to 
competitors in wire telephony and telegraphy under 
its telephone and telephonic appliance patents, and 
this exclusion is extended to patents covering any type 
of construction. Moreover the Bell System has added 
to its * * * patents any patent that might be of 
value to its competitors. This policy resulted in the 
acquisition of a large number of patents covering al- 
ternative devices and methods for which the Bell Sys- 
tem has no need. * * * 

"Provisions tending to suppress development are 
found to be present in patent license contracts between 



the Western Electric Co. and independent manufac- 
turing companies." *'* 

Automatic telephone switchboards were introduced 
slowly. The chief engineer of a leading telephone 
conqiany denounced the automatic system before the 
American Institute of Electrical Engineers. It was 
difficult for the public to orientate itself to the auto- 
matic system. The United States Senate, for example, 
had a new dial telephone system removed after a short 
trial. There were protests by workers against the in- 
stallation in terms of technological unemployment. 
But the delay was chiefly occasioned by the deprecia- 
tion costs on obsolete equipment. Similarly, the cradle 
or French telephones were long in use on the Conti- 
nent before they were installed in the United States 
and then a service charge was added largely in order 
to retard their introduction. 

Tlic telephone, cable, and telegraph companies did 
not invent the wireless telegraph; they at first de- 
clinetl to j^urchase it and later sought to suppress it. 
Jealous rivalry between the Italian and the German 
wireless telegraph systems led the German company 
to refuse to accept messages dispatched from German 
ships equipped with the Marconi instruments. The 
Italian company retaliated and service was crippled. 
As a result of this type of competition telegraphy 
v.'as discredited for a niunber of years.*' 

The telegraph, cable, and wireless companies declined 
to purchase the wireless telephone.*^ DeForest re- 
counts the great difficulties he had promoting his 
wireless telephone. He writes that when he exhibited 
his experiments in this field before five engineers of 
Western Electric Co., months passed and he heard 
nothing from them. Refused bv bankers, he sought 
to raise money from his classmates of the Yale Class 
of 1896 ; he succeeded in raising only $500.** 

There were vast time lags between the discovery 
of the scientific principles underlying radio by Joseph 
Henry, Hertz, Lodge, and others and the practical 
application of these finds. Even when in 1907 De- 
Forest put the radio tube in workable form at the same 
time as others had made like inventions independently, 
he was unable to sell his patent and let it lapse rather 
than pay $25 for its renewal.*^ The beginnings of 
radio were very crude, and there appears to have been 
no anticipation at all of its extensive development 
when the first broadcast occurred in 1920. Patent 
litigation in the radio industry particularly as between 



""Veblen, Thorstein. The Instinct of Workmanship (New York. 19141. 
p. 316. 

" Vaughan, F. L., Economics of our Patent Svstem (New York. 1925), 
p. 72. 



»• Federal Communications Comniissicn. Patent Stud.v of Boll Tele- 
phone System. Special Docliet No. 1, 1937 (Washington. D. C, 19371. 

*= Talbot, op. cit. p. 24. 

Tessenden. op. cit. p. 1140. 

**Carneal. Georgette, .\ Conqueror of Space (New Y"ork, 1930). p. 204. 

^'AEnew. P. G.. "Harnessing Scientific Discoveries" in Scientific 
Monthly, vol. xl (1935) 170-173. 



Technological Trends 



51 



the Armstrong patent controlled by Radio Corpora- 
tion of America and DeForest patents, with repeated 
reversals of the courts, made the ownership of the 
patent riojhts uncertain. This delayed the develop- 
ment of radio because of the fear of infringement 
suits. Concentrated control makes it imperative that 
all radio inventions clear through a few companies 
if they are to be marketed successfully, which involves 
their suppression when the new inventions disturb 
existing market conditions. Comjietition between 
newspapers and radio for advertising has repeatedly 
and in diverse ways interfered with the full utilization 
(if radio facilities. 

Rivalry between monopolistic groups lor its control 
led to the recent opposition to the construction of the 
coaxial cable between Xew York and Phiiadel])hia, 
over which 2,400 telegraph messages may be sent at 
one time, and which can carry a band of frequencies 
of at least one million cycles. It was argued before 
the Federal Communications Commission bj' the West- 
ern Union and Postal Telegraph & Cable companies, 
as well as by broadcasting companies that its use would 
disrupt existing communication and broadcasting 
services. After rehearings, each involving delays, 
during which the iVmerican Telephone & Telegraph 
Co. sought to use the cable exclusively, the F. C. C. 
ordered against monopolistic control.'" 

Power 

Steam Engine. — There were many anticipations of 
the steam engine that remained unfulfilled. Hero of 
Alexandria (c. 50 A. D.) in his treatise on pneimiatics, 
describes a machine which, by means of an altar fire, 
could be made to open temple doors, another which 
produced a steam jet on which a light ball could be 
supported, and an aeolipile which was essentially a 
reaction steam turbine. With the prevailing economic 
situation and attitude toward practical and mechani- 
cal activity in ancient Rome, the significance of his 
inventions was not appreciated. Steam was used in 
the tenth century by Sylvester II to operate an organ. 
The Italian chemist, Branca, used a jet of high pres- 
sure steam to turn a paddle wheel; his plan showed 
the boiler in the fomi of the head and body of a man. 
Kircher, Jesuit philosopher, in Rome; Baptista Porta, 
the mathematician, in Naples; and Solomon de Caus, 
the French architect and engineer, all operated foun- 
tains by steam in the sixteenth century. The English 
bishop, Wilkins, a brother-in-law of Oliver Cromwell, 
made experiments with aeolipiles. But there was then 
no conception of steam as an industrial motive power. 

In 1663, Edward Somerset, second Marquis of Wor- 
cester, obtained rights for 99 years by act of Parlia- 



ment, for his "water commanding engine" the first 
serious attempt known to make practical use of steam. 
But he, and his widow following him, were unsuccess- 
ful in forming a company to develop his invention. 
'J'homas Savcry around 1698 invented an engine de- 
signed to deal with accunudation of water in the 
Cornish mines. He circulated a i)amphk't in 1702 
among tlie mining operators — one of whom had to use 
500 iiorses in rai.siiig water by horsegins and buckets — • 
entitled "The miner's friend, or an engine to raise 
water by fire, described, and of the numner of fixing 
it in mines, with an account of several other uses it is 
applicable unto; and an answer to objections made 
against it." But his machine was costly, wasteful, 
and dangerous, largely because no one knew how to 
nuike boilers and pijx's strong enough to resist the 
requisite steam pressure, and so the minere continued 
to use their liorses. In 1712 Thomas Newcomen an- 
nounced his epoch-making atmospheric steam engine 
to pump water, but it failed to create any significant 
amount of public comment or excitement. James 
Watt, who worked under the patronage of Dr. John 
Roebuck, a wealth industrialist, got a patent in 1769 
on w^hat was originally oiUy an improvement of the 
Newcomen engine. By an extension of his patents 
until 1800 by an act of Parliament, he acquired a 
monopoly on the steam engine that, as Watt himself 
admitted, killed all further invention in this field in 
England until the next century. (For opposition to 
the application of the steam engine in the textile in- 
dustry see p. 55.) The restrictive laws of Great Brit- 
ain which prohibited machinery from being exported, 
delayed the development of the steam engine in other 
countries. Watt opposed the development of higher 
pressure engines, and was limited in his vision as to 
the uses of his invention '^ (see p. 40) . 

The invention of an efficient steam engine in Russia 
in 1763 by Ivan Ivanovich Polsunov was acknowledged 
by an award from Empress Catherine, but was still- 
born in an industrially backward setting.*^ In the 
United States, Oliver Evans was granted riglits on 
flour-mill machinery driven by steam, in 1786 by Penn- 
sylvania, and in the following year by Maryland. But 
not a single miller in Maryland, Pennsylvania, Dela- 
ware, or Virginia, would purchase "such rattle 
traps." '" The introduction of power machinery in 
shoe-making was vigorously opposed by the Lynn 
Laster's Union in Lynn, Mass. Ericsson demonstrated, 
in 1828, the effectiveness of a steam fire engine in 
London but municipal authorities decided against the 



»9 New York Times, May 25, July 16, July 25, 1935 ; Jan. 7, Feb. 
27. 193(5. 



"Wolf, op. cit. p. 543-556: Mitman, op. <lt. p. 507-515; Dickinson, 
11. W., James Watt (Cambridge. England, 1936). pp. 43, 45, 57. 
"Vasilevsky. E. M., The Land of Inventors (Moscow, 1933). p. 30. 
«" Mitman, op. cit. p. 531. 



52 



National Resources Committee 



engine anrl pumping was done by hand for 32 more 
years.*" 

Coal. — Ck)al encountered strenuous opposition be- 
fore it was accepted as a fuel. It was denounced 
in London during the reign of Edward I as a "public 
nuisance, con-upting the air with its stink and smoke, 
to the great detriment of their health", with the result 
that the king prohibited its use and in loOG a citizen 
was tried, condemned and executed for burning "sea 
cole."»^ In 1580 Queen Elizabeth prohibited the use 
of coal in Loiulon while Parliament was in session, be- 
cause "the health of the knights of the shires might 
suffer dui-ing their abode in the metropolis." A 
"health tax" was imposed on fii-eplaces by King 
Charles II in 1662."= 

In the United States coal was discovered in Kich- 
niond, Va., in 1702, but the mines were not opened 
until 1750. As late as 1795 coal users were ridiculed."^ 
Wlierever wood was in abundance, the iitilization of 
coal was delayed. 

Gas. — Oi)positi()n to the use of gas for lighting when 
it was first introduced in the begimiing of the nine- 
teenth century had manifold roots. There were fears 
of fires and sutFocation, which, though sometimes 
based on ignorance of the process involved, were often 
well grounded because of the defective methods of 
transmission causing frequent leaks and fatal explo- 
sions. But numerous other arguments were adduced. 
One group of objectors declared that the use of gas 
would deprive Britannia of lier ability to rule the 
waves, because by eliminating whale oil lamps it would 
destroy the whale oil industry, the nursery whence 
Britain drew her sons to man her fighting ships. This 
line of reasoning sounded cogent to many, as the 
]S'a])olennic Wars were then being waged. 

Relentless opposition arose when Samuel Clegg and 
Frederick Albert Winsor sought Parliamentary sanc- 
tion for their plan for a central gas distribution sys- 
tem to supply gas for private dwellings, factories, pub- 
lic buildings and thoroughfares. Their application 
for the incorporation of the London and Westminster 
Chartered Gas Light & Coke Co. was vehemently as- 
sailed. Scientists led the opposition by ridiculing the 
plan to store gas in reservoirs. Sir Humphrey Davy 
thought the plan impractical and sarcastically asked 
whether Clegg intended to use the dome of St. Paul's 
Cathedral as a gas-holder. Wollaston and Watt and 
the Royal Societj' likewise declared the project not feas- 



ible. Financiers and insurance companies ranged 
themselves in opposition and cited in proof a disas- 
trous explosion that had occurred in London. Street- 
lamp lighters went out on strike. Parish autliorities 
announced their intention of uprooting any lampposts 
and pikes planted in the streets within their juris- 
diction. Caricaturists such as Cruikshank and Row- 
landson satirized the plan, as did Byron. Sir Walter 
Scott wi'ote to a friend in incredulous amazement : 
"There is a madman pn)posing to light the streets of 
London — with what do you suppose — with smoke." 
Lighting with candles and torches was lauded as pic- 
turesque. Gas was denounced as a symbol of commer- 
cialism studding the landscape with unsightly reser- 
voirs. The charter was finally granted in 1810, but it 
was not until 3 years later tliat the [lublic accepted 
the new sj-stem of light ing.^^ 

Opposition to gas lighting was not restricted to Eng- 
land, but arose in some degree in all countries. 
Napoleon characterized the idea as une grande folic 
and when Paris attempted to introduce the new system 
in 1818, it met with little favor.»= Berlin did not 
install a gas system until 1823, and the streets were not 
lighted by gas until 1826. The bursting of the gas 
lanterns on the day it was introduced on Unter den 
Linden gave those who had predicted failure tem- 
porary elation." 

Gas was installed in Baltimore in 1821, but it was 
many years before popular prejudice was allayed 
against gas as a danger to health and safety, and the 
skeptical ceased to frown upon its efficacy. As late 
as 1833, a petition to the Philadelphia Connnon 
Council warned against the use of gas "as ignitable as 
gunpowder and as nearly fatal in its effects as regards 
the immense destruction of property." It was also 
argued that the city should continue to be lit witli 
oil, because the discharge of the tar from the gas works 
into tlie surrounding waters miglit drive away the shad 
and herring."' It was accepted with much more 
alacrity in the new cities where extensive street light- 
ing systems hud not already been set up, and there 
were no losses incurred through obsolescence. Long 
after gas became generally accepted as a means of 
illumination, churches continued the use of candles and 
oil. The lights of the Roman Catholic Cathedral of 
Westminster are still relit at Easter by flint and steel, 
although a modern mechanical device is used. 

Improvements in gas lighting also met resistance. 
Welsbach gas mantles were invented in 1885, but 



i» lies, op. cit. p. 222-23. 

" Massoii. E. O, and Chubb, L. W.. "Smoke" In Encyclopae<lia Britan- 
nlca, 11th ed., vol. xxv (1011). p. 275. 

'-Norman. O. E., The Romance of the Gas Industry (Chicago. 1922), 
p. 160. 

" narrow. F. L., "Burled Sunshine — The Story of Coal" in Kaempf 
fert. W., ed., A I'opulnr History of American Invention, 2 vols. (New 
York, 1924), vol. II. p. 116-117. 



"Tnlbot. op. cit. p. 49-58; Timbs. John. Wonderful Inventions (Lon- 
don, ISr.S), p. 172. 

'' Luckcisch, M., From Rusblicht to Incandescent Lamp in Kaempf- 
fcrt, W., ed.. Modern Wonder Workers (New York, 192t), pp. 54(>- 
547. 

"■ Bochn and Fischel, op. cit. vol. ii, pp. 145-147. 

" Luckeisch. op. cit. p. 554. 



Technological Trends 



53 



largely beciuise of their costs they were not used ex- 
tensively until 1890, although they gave a better light 
with lower gas consumption."* 

Electricity. — Early exp(M'inients with electricity were 
ignored or ridiculed. Franklin's letters to Collison, 
which described his experiment with the kite that 
charged a Leyden jar by electricity drawn from the 
clouds, performed in Jime 1752, were read before the 
Royal Society, but remained mmoticed."" Galvani, 
engaged in 1762 in experiments with reactions of 
frogs' legs to electric shocks, is reported to have said : 
"I am persecuted by two classes : The scientists and the 
know-it-alls. Both call me 'the frogs' dancing master.' 
Yet I know that I have discovered one of the greatest 
forces of the universe." ' The possibilities of elec- 
tricity were seen by Faraday in 1832, Init before effi- 
cient generators of large size were produced on a 
commercial basis the steam engine was firmly estab- 
lished and the costs of obsolescence in steam manufac- 
turing equipment delayed their wide use. 

The electrical companies themselves were long re- 
miss in understanding the uses to which electricity 
could be put. The chief engineer of one of the largest 
electrical companies declared that "electricity could 
never be used except as an auxiliary on shipboard." 
The high-frequency alternator was not invented by 
the electric companies and when one was made up at 
the inventor's expense, an electric comjiany returned it 
with a letter stating that in the opinion of its engi- 
neers "it could never be made to operate above 10,000 
cycles." ^ 

It can hardly be said that Edison's invention of the 
incandescent lamp was universally acclaimed. The 
issue of the New York Times of December 28, 1879, in 
which Edison's demonstrations at Menlo Park are de- 
scribed, carried a statement of Prof. Henry Mor- 
ton, the president of Stevens Institute of Technology, 
protesting against the trumpeting of the results of 
Edison's experiments in electric lighting as "a wonder- 
ful success" when "every one acquainted with the sub- 
ject will recognize it as a conspicuous failure." He 
declared that Edison "has done and is doing too much 
really good work to have his record defaced and his 
name discredited in the interests of any stock company 
or individual financier." He then predicted the fail- 
ure of the lamp inasmuch as all previous attempts had 
been failures. Other scientists denied the possibility 
that carbon could be used for filaments because carbon 
contained the elements of its own destruction. The 
managing editor of the New York Herald rebuked the 



city editor of his pajier for publishing a feature article 
on Edison's electric light on the grounds that such a 
light was against the laws of nature.^ 

Plarly demonstrations by Edison of tlie incandescent 
lamj) disturbed the London stock exchange. Uneasi- 
ness on gas share quotations in one day amounted to a 
veritable jianic because the sensational reports in the 
press led to the belief that gas was to be superseded 
entirely.^ But gas lighting yielded slowly to elec- 
tricity. The expense involved in making and operat- 
ing the lamps which M'ere very short lived seemed to 
many to negate any prospect of their wide use.'* By 
opposing franchises for electrical lighting, the gas 
companies retarded its application. Gas lighting was 
put forward as the model of safety and electricity was 
denounced as hazardous. Those installing electricity 
in dwellings were often obliged to use fixtures permit- 
ting the use of gas as well. Dim gas street lighting 
was characterized as romantic as contrasted with the 
glare of electric lighting and the lamplighter was sen- 
timentalized. As late as June 27, 1929, when gas lights 
were to be replaced in various parts of San Francisco, 
a local paper in a news report said : "Many people view 
the passing of the gas light with regret, because the 
lamj^lighter — either a young man working his way 
through school, or an old man trudging by at sunset — 
was a personality. Especially on Russian Hill the 
peoi)le are not anxious for speedy substitution of new 
lights. They feel that the gas lights iit the Bohemian 
character of the neighborhood." 

Changes within the electric industry have been 
retarded by the buying and suppressing of patents by 
the large corporations which dominate the field. From 
1896 to 1911 the General Electric and the Westing- 
house electric companies had a patent-purchasing 
agreement that neither would acquire a patent that 
would tend to injure the other, and many inventors 
could not find a uuirket for their patents." A superior 
electric lamp, which it is estimated will save electric 
light users $10,000,000 a year, has been invented but 
has not been put on the market.' 

For household uses the wood range held out a long 
time against the coal range and the oil burner. In 
turn the coal range has resisted the gas range, and the 
gas range the electric range. 

Metals 

When the artificers among the early Europeans 
first used copper for tools and weapons, they did not 



°' Norman, op. cit. pp. 54-55, 171. 

" Thompson, Holland, The Age of Invention, The Chronicles of Amer- 
ica Series, vol. xviii, pt. i (New Haven, 1921), p. 11. 
1 Quoted by Hart, op. clt. p. 629. 
^Fessenden, op. cit., p, 1140. 



' White, F. M., "Edison and the Incandescent Light" in Outlook, vol. 
.xciv (1910), 4S7-488. 

« Byrn, E. W.. The Progress of Invention in the Nineteenth Century 
(New York. 1900). p. 71. 

!> Ush.r, A. P., A History of Mechanical Inventions (New York, 1929), 
p. 360. 

« Vaughan, op. cit. p. 210-211. 

' New York Times, Jan. 2. 1936, p. 50. 



54 



National Resources GoTnmittee 



sense the possibilities of the metal and their copper 
celts closely resembled the shape of the stone celts. 
Iron was long regarded with susi)icion, and there were 
protracted delays before it was utilized in tlie place of 
bronze and stone. Certain tribes of East Africa, 
among them the Akamba, retain their objection to the 
iron hoe which they believe keeps away the rain. Iron 
was not worked by the Caribou Eskimos during the 
musk ox hunting season, and tlie Kadiak Eskimos con- 
tinued to use slate spearheads Ijccause of the belief that 
they brought on death more quickly than iron spear- 
heads.* In the Biblical stoi-y of the building of Solo- 
mon's temple, it is declared tliat the sound of iron tools 
was not heard,' and tlie Mormon temple at Salt Lake 
City was built without iron. No bolts or iron were per- 
mitted in the repair of the Publican Bridge across the 
Tiber as late as the fall of the Rouuin Republic." 
Stone knives were used by the Jews for circumcision 
and by the Egyptians for embaluiing, long after they 
were familiar with iron. The first successful cast-iron 
plow invented in the United States in 1797 was re- 
jected by New Jersey farmers under the theory that 
cast iron poisoned the lands and stimulated the growth 
of weeds.'' 

The prohibitive price of wrought iron prevented its 
wide utilization. In 1591 a forge could not make nioi'e 
than 2 tons a week, and owing to a shortage of water 
often made only 50 tons a year. Water tanks and 
pipes therefore continued to be constructed in pewter 
and lead. Sa^ery's engines seem to have failed because 
the lead i>ipes burst under the pressure he ai)plied. 
Even at the close of the seventeenth century tlie prod- 
uct of the forges was often insufficiently decarbonized 
and crumbled when hammered. '- 

Abraham Darby's discovery in 1709 of how to elim- 
inate the bad effects of the sulphurous fumes of coal 
in making iron was practically ignored. In France. 
Reaumur's process was neglected for many years. 
Henry Cort, wlio took out patents on the use of coal 
in forges and on the processes of puddling and rolling 
in 1783 and 1784, went bankrupt. An official report 
of the British government of his patents said in 1805 : 
"It does not seem that any opportunity has occurred, 
though endeavors have been used, to make them avail- 
able to any profitable purposes." The influence of 
early inventions was so negligible that a member of 
the House of Commons could declare in 1S06. nearly 
a century after Darby's discovery, and over 20 years 
after Cort's discoveries: '"Fornierlv and till within the 



last 5 or years, wood or charcoal was the only ma- 
terial by which it was supposed that iron could be 
made; but the ingenuity of the manufacturers led 
them to find a substitute in coak.'"' 

When, in 1850, Bessemer at Cheltenliam made pub- 
lic his process of making steel, many iron makers 
accejited his convertors readily, but their early efforts 
to produce steel proved a dismal failure because of the 
chemical composition of the pig iron which contained 
too much phosphorus. Bessemer repurchased the pat- 
ents and after a short period of experimentation he 
discovered the causes of the previous failure, and be- 
gan to manufacture the steel himself. For a time, 
however, his product appeared to be a drug on the 
market. His firm did little business during its first 
2 years, for the trade was slow to acknowledge the 
virtues of the new metal partly because of the failure 
of its first commercial exploitation.'^ In the United 
States, when, in 184C, AVilliam Kelly discovered inde- 
pendently the same process as Bessemer, his father- 
in-law, who believed the method ridiculous, and such 
experimentation harmful to the credit of his iron 
works, threatened to withdraw his financial support. 
Customers rejected the new jiroduct and insist I'd on 
iron refined by the regular methods.'^ 

The United States Steel Corporation has initiated 
few technological changes in the steel industry, and 
has been slow to respond to innovations. It rejected 
or neglected, largely because of its vast investments 
in other processes. Henry Gray's invention of a struc- 
tural section that could be rolled together in one piece; 
John B. Tytus's method of manufacturing steel sheets 
by a continuous process like that used in the manu- 
facture of paper; Gayleys process of supplying a dry 
blast to blast furnaces; the new centrifugal process 
of casting ingots whicli eliminates ingot molds, soak- 
ing pits and blooming mills. It lagged in the develop- 
ment of the stainless steel market. Because its prices 
are calculated in tonnage, it has discouraged and has 
I'efused to experiment or pioneer in alloy steels which 
make possible reduction in the weight of steel without 
sacrificing strength.'" Louis D. Brandeis in 1014 cited 
with approval the judgment of the editor of Electrical 
News : 

We are tod;iy somotliing like 5 years l)eliiiicl Germany in 
iron and steel metallurgy, and such Innovations as are being 
introduced by our iron and steel manufacturers are merely 
following the lead set by foreigners years ago. We believe 
the main cause is the wholesale consolidation that has taken 
place in Amoric.Tn industry. A huge organization is too clumsy 



"Sayco. R. U.. Primitive Arts anil Crafts (Cam'jridgo. EiiK., 19:^.3). 
p. 182. 181). 19.1-194. 

• I Kincs. 6 : 7. 

'° Burgi'.ss. E. W., The Funrtion of Socialization in Sorlal Kvolution 
(Chlraco. 1916). p. Ifi. 

"Thompson, op. cit. p. 112 

" Wolf, op. cit. p. 542. 



"Hammond. .T. I... and Barbara. The Rise of Modern Industr.v (I.on 
don. 192,'5>, p. 1.17. 140. 

" Bessenifr. Ilonr.v. An Autobiopraphy (I.nndr.n. 19051. ch. xii. 

"Sprlnc. I,. W. "The Siory of Iron and Ste.>l" In Kaempffert. W., 
ed . A I'npular lUstory of American Invention. 2 vols. (New York, 
1924), vol. il. p. 21. 

"O'Connor, Harvey, Steel Dictator (New York. 19,'?5). p. 126-29. 



Technological Trends 



55 



to take up the devolopment of an oriRinal idea. With tlie 
market closely controlled and certain of profits by developing 
standard methods, those who control our trusts do not want 
the bother of developing anything new." 

It is not that German industrialists were invariably 
responsive to innovation, for when, about 1880, a 
Canadian metallurgist suggested the use of iron-nickel 
alloys for guns. Krupp rejected the idea.'^ In 191G, 
a connnittee on foundry methods of the National 
Founders' Association estimated that not more than 25 
percent of the foundries of North America had in- 
stalled available mechanical appliances."" 

Great Britain is also faced with the problem of lag 
in the steel industry. The Committee on Industry 
and Trade reported: ''In the efficiency of its coking 
plant and in the organization of the coking industry, 
Great Britain still undoubtedly lags behind the United 
States and the continent of Europe * * *_ j^ i\yQ 
main the older ovens have been retained, and it is said 
that there are few plants that have been scrapped alto- 
gether since 19U6. The explanation given by the rep- 
resentatives of the coke oven owners is broadly that 
it does not pay to install new ovens in this country 
in view of their relatively high capital cost * * * 
the financial condition has made it difficult to raise 
new capital for replacements and extensions." °° 

In the United States monopoly control retards, for 
instance, the development of the alimiinum industry. 
Production of aluminum was originally so costly that 
Devi He and Bunsen regarded its use as impractical, but 
the process of obtaining metal by electrical reduction 
cheapened its production drastically. The Aluminum 
Co. of America obtained its monopolistic position by 
the purchase of this process patent for producing 
aluminum, issued to Charles M. Hall in 1889, and 
augmented it later by the purchase in 1903 of a 
conflicting and competing patent issued to Charles S. 
Bradley. In 1937, the United States Attorney Gen- 
eral's office charged that "By virtue of its lOU percent 
monopoly of the production and sale of alumina and 
virgin aluminum in the United States, Aluminum Co. 
has acquired and is maintaining a monopolistic control 
of the production and sale of alumina, aluniinnin, alu- 
minum sheet, alloy sheet, basic fabricated jiroducts, 
and through them of products manufactured there- 
from, sold in interstate and foreign commerce, and 
possesses the power to fix arbitrary, discriminatory, 
and unreasonable prices and to extend and perpetually 



maintain said monopolistic control and to exclude 
others who would, except for said monopolistic con- 
trol, engage in competition with Aluminum Co. in the 
production and sale of bauxite, alumina, virgin alu- 
minmn, and aluminum products niamifacturcd there- 
from. Because new enterprises desiring to engage in 
the aluminum industry would be placed at the mercy 
of a single powerful corporation controlling essential 
raw materials, and because of the great hazard neces- 
sarily involved in venturing into a business so com- 
pletely monopolized by Aluminum Co. and its wholly 
owned subsidiaries, said monopolistic control has had 
and will continue to have the direct and immediate 
effect of suppressing and preventing substantial com- 
petition which would otherwise arise in the production 
and sale in interstate and foreign commerce oi' bauxite, 
alumina, jiluminum, and alumimun ijroducts manufac- 
tured therefrom, and is inimical to the public inter- 
est * * *." Retardation in the development of the 
aluniinnm industry due to monopoly control is detri- 
mental to many fields of industrial growth, particu- 
larly because of the importance of alimiinum in the 
development of alloys.-"" 

Textile Machinery 

The textile industry was the lir.st battleground of 
machine technology against hand tools. The begin- 
nings of the conflict developed as early as the thir- 
teenth and fourteenth centuries on the Continent, and 
for three centuries guild and local authorities fre- 
quently ordered new machines destroyed and their in- 
ventors imprisoned. In 1397, for example, the tailors 
of Cologne were forbidden to use a machine for press- 
ing the head of pins. In 1272 Borghesano's automatic 
machine, run by a water wheel, for twisting silk 
threatl, was used in Bologna. Its secret appears to 
ha^e been maintained through fear of the death pen- 
alty, so that it did not become known in Switzerland 
until 1555 and in England until 1718.-^ It is reported 
that about 1579 the Council of Danzig had had stran- 
gled the inventor of a machine which would weave 
four to six pieces at once, lest his invention reduce 
many workers to beggary. Rev. William Lee, who, in 
1589, invented the first knitting machine, the so-called 
"stocking frame", was refused a patent of monopoly by 
Queen Elizabeth and James I. He then accepted an in- 
vitation from King Henry IV of France, and went to 
Rouen in Normandy with several looms, only to have 



»" Br.indeis. L. D.. Other People's Money (New York, 1914), p. 1.50- 
151. 

"Wadhams. \. J.. "The Story of the Nickel Industry" in Metals and 
AUoys, vol. ii (19-31), [>. 168. 

i» Stecker. M. L.. "The Founders, the Moulders, and the Moulding 
Machine" in Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. xxxii (1917-18), 
281 n. 

=° Great Britain, Committee on Industry and Trade, Survey of Indus- 
tries, 4 vols. (London, 1927-28), vol. iv, p. 25-27. 

877S°— 37 5 



^Tnited States of America v. AlHmin\im Co. of America et at., 
petition filed Apr. 23, 1937. in the District Court of the United States 
for the Southern District of New York. Equity No. 85-73, p. 21-22. See 
also "Aluminum Co. of America", Hearings before the Committee on the 
Judiciary, U. S. Senate, 69th Cong.. 1st se.ss. (Wiishington. D. C. 1926) ; 
and Federal Trade Commission, Report on the House Furnishing.s 
Industr.v. vol. lii (Washington, 10251. ch. iv. 

" Corey, Lewis. "Machines and Tools" in Encyclopaedia of The Social 
Sciences, vol. x (New York, 1933), p. 19. 



56 



National Resources Committee 



his inventions unrealized because of the king's assassi- 
nation. The manufacture of looms made bj- Giam- 
battista Carli of Gemona v.-as ordereel discontinued 
in consequence of the poverty of Venetian stocking- 
knitters. In England, it was not until 169G that looms 
were common, and then their exportation was forbid- 
den in order to keep the improvements secret. In 
Leyden about 1C21 magistrates interdicted the use of 
a weaving machine because of protests of workers. In 
numerous parts of Germany, in the late seventeenth 
and early eighteenth centuries, the ribbon-loom was 
prohibited, and it was sometimes publicly burned. It 
was not until 17G5 that the electorate of Saxony per- 
mitted the use of the looms.-- 

Kay's flying shuttle or "spring loom", invented in 
1733, was not in general use in England for cotton 
weaving until 1760, and its utilization in the woolen 
and worsted industries, while common in Gloucester- 
shire and parts of Wiltshire by 1803, still caused dis- 
turbances in Somerset as late as 1822. Blackburn spin- 
sters in 1768 invaded Hargreave's home and destroyed 
his spinning jennies which first operated 8, and before 
long 100, spindles. "Workers protested by demonstrat- 
ing against the jenny when it was first introduced in 
the South-West clothing district in 1776 and peti- 
tioned the House of Commons to abolish the use 
of the jenny lest it "tend greatly to the Damage and 
Ruin of many thousands of the industrious Poor." 
The objection to the spinning jenny symbolized tlie 
resistance to the factory system. "Spinning houses" 
had been organized by the clothiers on their own 
premises, and weavers feared that they too would 
be obliged to work under their employers' roofs. A 
sc-ribl)]iiig mill at Bradford. AVilts., was burned down 
about 1790. 

Beginning in Lancashire in 1776, and especially 
in 1779, there was a systematic attack throughout 
England on the use of new machines invented by 
Arkwright, which used water and horsepower for 
carding, roving, and spinning, and which forced spin- 
ning out of the cottage into the factory. In their 
petition to Parliament in 1780, the cotton spinners of 
Lancashire described the threat of total loss of em- 
ployment which made the patent machines "a Domes- 
tic Evil of very great Magnitude." They declared 
that the worker's plight was so "intolerable as to re- 
duce them to Despair, and many thousands assembled 
in different Parts to destroy the Causes of their 
Distress.'''' They gave evidence that the work pro- 
duced by the machines was inferior to hand work, and 
called the machines a mere monopoly "for the im- 
mense Profits and Advantages of the Patentees and 



Proprietors." After the parliamentarj' committee 
reported in favor of the new nnichinery, they again 
showed the larger social significance of the conflict 
by their complaint that "the Jennys are in the Hands 
of the Poor and the Patent Machines are generally 
in the Hands of the Rich." It is this monopolistic 
character of Arkwright's inventions that led to wide 
public s3-mpathy with the workers' attempt to check 
their use. xVrkwright was exceedingly unpopular with 
other manufacturers because he kept his inventions 
seci'et. The landed class not only resented the inven- 
tions as facilitating the grooving power of the indus- 
trialists, but feared that the poor rates would be in- 
creased by the burden of persons, whom the machines 
threw out of work.-^ 

The introduction of textile nuulunery continued to 
be opposed into the next century. When Cartwright 
argued that weaving should be done by machinery, 
experts derided him. His power loom, invented in 
1785, Heaton declares to have been in fact almost 
worthless in its original form.-* The introduction of 
weaving machinery was responsible for what has 
become known as the Nottingham Luddite riots of 
1811-12, during which framework knitters sought 
to break all frames that were being used to make 
"cut-ups'" — that is, pieces which could be cut up into 
gloves, socks, sandals, and stockings of an inferior 
kind — and the machines of manufacturers that failed 
to pay wages agreed upon. In Yorkshire a small band 
of highl}- organized and skilled workmen in the 
woolen industry sought to destroy the gig mills and 
shearing frames.-^ In France, Jacquard's looms for 
the weaving of brocaded silks, invented in 1801, were 
destroyed by displacetl workers. The inventor la- 
mented, "The iron was sold for iron, the wood for 
wood, and I, its inventor, was delivered up to public 
ignominy." -' 

Opposition to power-driven machinery flared when 
steam, used in 1785 for the first time in a cotton mill, 
began to be installed widely. In 1793 "respectable 
residents" at Bradford, England, protested success- 
fully against the use of the steam engine in worsted 
mills as "a smoky nuisance" by threatening the pro- 
prietor with legal proceedings.-' Strenuous resistance 
to the use of steam looms for cotton weaving arose at 
Lancashire.-" 

As new machinery, which allowed for increased 
production was invcTited in the textile industry, it 



= Bpckmnn. op. cit. vol. li. p. 371-!?75, 528-531: MnrT. Karl. Das 
Kapital. 3 vols. (4th ed. Hamburg, 18001, vol. 1, tr. by E. and C. Paul 
(London, 1928). p. 457-458. 



=^ Hammond. J. L., .ind Barbara. The Skilled Labourer, 1760-1832 
(London. I'Jllt). p. 49. 1(!0, f,^^-r^(^. 145-14G. 140. 

"Heaton. n. Inilu.'strial Revolution in Encyclopaedia of the Social 
Sciences, vol. viii (1932), p. 7. 

=^ Hammond, op cit. p. 257-260. 301-302, 171-174, 

=" Yeats, op. cit. p. 276. 

"Hammond, op. cit. p. 153. 

" Hammond. Kise of Modern Industry, p. 107. 



Technological Trends 



57 



met the opposition of the executives of the industry, 
who feared that overproduction would disturb exist- 
ing price levels, and who hesitated to scrap the 
older machinery until it was worn out physically.^® 
They likewise invariably aroused workers' hostility 
because of the dread of technological unemployment, 
the initial difficulties of ada])ting themselves to the new 
machinery, and the lowered wages and greater speed- 
up that usually accompanied their introduction. 

Competition between various textile products some- 
times impedes innovation, as is strikingly shown in the 
case of the campaign against rayon by the silk manu- 
facturers. When rayon was first i)ut on the market, a 
committee appointed by silk maiuifacturers to study 
its possibilities declared it a transient fad. "\^'^len it 
proved to be otherwise, large sums were spent in adver- 
tising to discredit the new product. 

Sewing machine. — The first sewing machines were 
regarded either with indiiference, amused curiosity, 
and skepticism as to their utility, or with hostility as 
to their effects on the livelihood of workers in the 
needle trades. The machine invented by Thomas Saint 
in 1790 was viewed as a mechanical toy. In 18o2 Wal- 
ter Hunter's machine was withdrawn by the promoter, 
George A. Arrowsmith, on the gromuls that the in- 
troduction of the machine woukl be injurious to the 
interests of the hand-sewers. The army uniform fac- 
tory of Bartholomey Thiunnonier in Paris, in which 
there were 80 of the sewing machines that he had in- 
vented in 1830, was destroyed in 1841 by workers who 
feared for their livelihood, and ii\ 1848 his second fac- 
tory was likewise destroyed. His machine was never 
widely used in France and when it was shown at the 
Crystal Palace Exhibition in London in 1851, no no- 
tice was taken of it in the English press. The resist- 
ance to the sewing machine patented by Elias Howe 
in the United States in 1846 was not primarily on ac- 
count of its displacement of hand workers, although 
his machine sewed more rapidly than five of the swift- 
est needle workers. The chief reasons were that it was 
very expensive, costing $200 to $300 (o build, that it 
could sew only a straight seam, and that break-downs 
were frequent.'" After the machine was improved by 
A. B. Wilson and mass production methods were intro- 
duced by Isaac Singer, patent controversies delayed 
progress. In 18.56 the leading manufacturers pooled 
their patents, and by their control of these basic pat- 
ents, suppressed any variants that would disturb the 
market.'^ 



The introduction of electric sewing machines was 
delayed long after they had been devised because they 
would ilepreciate the value of the hand- and loot-power 
machines. Consumers, moreover, hesitated to purchase 
new models in spite of their undoubted superiority, be- 
cause of costs, and because the previous nuichines gave 
sufhcient satisfaction not to make substitution 
imperative. 

-Vgricultural Machinery 

Tiiere has been strong consistent opposition to 
changes in technology in agricultui-e. The oi)position 
of farmers to the cast-iron plow has already been men- 
tioned. When Jetliro Tull sought to introduce me- 
chanical planting of grain by drilling nuichines to dis- 
]ilace broadcast sowing by hand, he was by threats of 
violence forced to leave many English farm villages.'^ 
Amos Bronson Alcott would not allow his land to be 
manured because he considered it "a base and corrupt- 
ing mode of forcing nature." '^ Whitney's cotton gin 
was not accepted at once, not only because of the ru- 
mor which had its source in Manchester, that the gin 
injured the cotton fiber, but because of the excessive 
levy which Whitney and his partner Miller, imposed 
on the planters who used it.'* The Hammonds write of 
the destruction of the threshing machines in England 
in 1830: "Threshing was one of the few kinds of work 
left that provided the laborer with a means of exis- 
tence above the starvation level. * * * It is easy 
to imagine what the sight of one of these hated engines 
meant to a parish; the 15 men, their wives and fam- 
ilies would have found cold comfort, when they be- 
come submerged in the morass of parish relief, in the 
reflection that the new machine extracted for their 
masters' and the public benefit 10 percent more corn 
than they could hauuner out by their free hands.'* 
James Buchanan's wind stacker was opposed in the 
1880's on the grounds that it would pull the grain out 
of the pipe or shoe with the straw, and that it would 
use too much power.'" Ownership of the Buchanan 
]3atents on wind stackers later enabled the Indiana 
Manufacturing Co. to control the introduction of im- 
provements and to suppress those that disturbed the 
market." 

Suuill-town Ijankers and businessmen refused for 
many years to lend money on tractors on the grounds 
that they were a menace to farmers. They argued not 
oidy that farmers could not operate the machine profit- 



=° Jerome, Harry, Mechanization in Industry. National Bureau of 
Economic Research, Inc.. Publication, no. 27 (New Yorls. 1934), p. 333. 

"Lewton. F. L., "The Servant in the House: A Brief History of the 
Sewing Machine" in Smithsonian Institution, Annual Report, 1929 
(1930), pp. 559-583. 

" Vaughan, op. cit., p. 36. 



'- Horine, M. C, "KarminR by Machine" in Kaompftert. W., cd., A Pop 
ular History of American Invention. 2 vols. (New York, 1924), vol. li, 
pp. 25G-257. 

>» Seldes, Gilbert, The Stammering Century (New Yorlt, 1928), p. 208. 

»« lies, oj). cit., pp. 82-83. 

«• Hammond, J. L., and Barbara, The Village Labourer, 17G0-1832 
(London. 1911). 220-221. 

"« Horine, op. cit., p. 297. 

" Vaughan, op. cit., p. 46. 



58 



National Resources Committee 



ably, but also that if they were successful, the farmer 
would have too much leisure time. They had invest- 
ments in horses and foresaw their eventual decline in 
price if tractors were utilized. The national horse as- 
sociations led in circulating propaganda against trac- 
tors and were joined by the local bankers. Farmers 
were easily susceptible to such a campaign for the 
price of tractors was high, horse-drawn implements be- 
came almost a total loss, and the farmers were often 
sentimentally attached to their horses. Farmers rare- 
ly had sufficient evidence one way or the other on 
the question wliether the breakage on the tractor and 
tlie amount of fuel required were excessive. The oppo- 
sition of the farm wage workers, displaced by the trac- 
tor, was also great. 

Delay in the effective utilization of tractors is in 
many countries and regions due to the system of land 
ownership prevailing, for in order to be exploited 
profitably, tractors require vast concentration of land 
areas, as in western United States and in the collec- 
tive farms of the Soviet Union. Any trend toward 
smaller lioldings as is advocated widely in the United 
States and especially in Fascist countries tends to 
negate and make impossible the application of mod- 
ern agricultural technology. 

Fear of overproduction of cotton with consequent 
shattering of existing price levels, and of drastic dis- 
placement of cotton jjickers, is deterring the intro- 
duction of the automatic cotton picker inA^ented by the 
Rust brothei-s. According to the estimate of the Delta 
Experiment Station of Stoneville, Tenn., the Eust 
machine, wliich can pick in 7i/^ liours as much as a 
good hand picker can pick in 5 weeks, will displace 
over 75 percent of the labor population in tlie southern 
cotton country if the invention is thrown upon the 
market in tlie regvilar manner. The inventors, cog- 
nizant of the revolutionary consequences attending 
their invention, are themselves withholding its appli- 
cation, except for its trial use on a cooperative farm 
in Mississippi and in the Soviet Union, where the 
problem of unemployment does not exist and the intro- 
duction of the machine can be regulated. 

In general, a situation such as exists in capitalist 
countries where food production is being curtailed in 
the interest of price maintenance for profit is hai'dly 
conducive to the introduction of improvements in agri- 
cultural technology. In fact, retrogression has been 
apparent, with technologies already introduced being 
abandoned, particularly during the depression. 

Building 

Architecture has always been conservative. Wlien 
the early dwellers on the Alpine lakes descended into 
the Italian plains, they continued to build pile dwell- 



ings, even when thej- settled on hilltops.^' It took 350 
years and 13 kings to eliminate inflammable straw 
roofs from Danish towns.^' In spite of their extreme 
combustibility and the inadequate protection from the 
colli that they afforded, and the easy availability of 
timber which was cheaper and better, thatched cottages 
survived for a long period in the American colonies.*" 
Cluirches and public buildings still cling to ancient 
and medieval forms. There was long delaj' in using 
iron in building, and when it was used it was either 
hidden, or when unavoidably shown, employed with no 
idea of its aesthetic possibilities. When Bullington 
took out patents for the steel-frame skyscraper in 
1888, the Architectural Xews predicted that the ex- 
pansion and contraction of iron would crack all the 
plaster, eventually leaving only the shell." 

The pressure of vested interests has been a decisive 
factor in retarding change in housing materials. The 
lumber companies long fought legislation prohib- 
iting the building of inflammable wooden buildings 
in large cities.*'" Wooden shingle companies lobbied 
against laws for fireproof roofing.*"" Brick manu- 
facturers carried on a persistent campaign for j-ears 
against concrete structures, predicting their collapse. 

Central heating systems have met stubborn and 
persistent opposition. In England particularly, ad- 
vances in heating methods have been widely ignored. 

Adequate toilet facilities, still regarded as incidental 
luxuries by many buildei-s of homes for workers, were 
only slowly introduced into the homes of the middle- 
class late in the nineteenth century. Earlier the bath- 
room was regarded as a superfluity in the palace of 
Versailles, and the bathtub was removed and put in 
I lie garden for a fountain.'- There is ample evidence 
that inhabitants of the palace acted in the spirit of 
Philip of Spain, who had authorized the destruction 
of all public baths left by the Mooi-s on the grounds 
that washing the body was a heathen ctistom dangerous 
to believers." In the 1840's the bathtub was denounced 
in the United States as an epicurean innovation from 
England designed to corrupt the democratic simplicity 
of the Republic. The medical profession warned 
against it as a procUicer of rheumatic fevers, inflam- 



" Giuffrlda-nuggeri, V., A Sketch of tlip Anthropology of Ualy. in 
Royal .\nthropnlogicnl Institute of Great Britain and Irpland, Journal, 
vol. xlvili (iniSl 99-100. 

»I,owie. R. 11.. Are We Civilized? (New York. 1029). pp. 72-73. 

<o Wertenbaker. T. J.. The First Americans. 1607-1690 (Nevr York. 
1927). pp. 2S4-2S5. 

" folk, Grace. Sire of the Skyscraper, In New York Times Magazine 
(Now York Nov. 21, 1926K p. 15. 

**" National Lumber Manufacturer's Association, Highlights of a 
Decade of Achievement (Washington. D. C, 1929). p. 33^0. 53-55. 62. 

*" Brief on behalf of the National Lumber Manufacturers Association 
before the Federal Trade Commission (Washington, D. C, 1916), p. 46, 51. 

*-■ Boehn and Fischel, op. cit. p. 79-80. 

" Hogben. Lancelot. Genetic Principles in Medicine and Social Science 
(London, 1932), p. 213. 



Technological Trends 



59 



raatory lunj,^s luid all zymotic diseases. Attempts 
■ivere made to legislate against it. An ordinance pro- 
hibiting bathing between November 1 and March 15 
failed of passage in tlie Philadelphia Common Coun- 
cil in 1843 by only two votes. Heavy water rates were 
levied against those who had bathtubs in Virginia, 
and a tax of $30 imposed on tlieir possessors in cer- 
tain towns. When President Filmore installed a 
bathtub in the White House in 1851, there was an 
outcry against it as a "uionarchical luxury" which could 
well be dispensed with inasnuich as former Presidents 
had gotten along without them.^' 

Organized skilled workers in the building trades 
have slowed down the introduction of pi-ocesses that 
threaten to endanger their health, destroy their skill, 
lower their wages, and cause technological unemploy- 
ment. Between 1911 and 1921, prohibitions against 
cutting, measuring, and Ihrcailing by macliinc, of irnii 
pipe of specific diameter were incorporated in agree- 
ments between plumbers' unions and buihlers' asso- 
ciations and there were restrictions in regard to the 
use of substitutes for ferrules and brass soldering 
devices.'" Granite cutters resisted the introduction of 
surfacing machines and of pneumatic hammers which, 
in addition to speeding up, involved the hazard of 
silicosis. Painters object to the paint spray which 
endangers health by benzol jioisoning. 

When recently the mechanized industries, particu- 
larly in metal, entered the housing field with the pro- 
duction of "prefabricated houses"', they were met by 
the resistance of property holders, especially of the 
banks, who hold mortgages on about 58 percent of 1933 
value of all urban real estate,'"' and who fear that an 
influx of cheap modern dwellings would subtract sub- 
stantially fi-om the market value of existing struc- 
tures.*" These banks and loan companies have been 
unwilling to finance prefabricated houses except in 
rare exceptions and then on a limited basis. Lmnber 
companies and manufacturers of other materials which 
are being displaced in the production of prefabricated 
houses, have sought to prevent their construction 
through building-code restrictions and by organizing 
boycotts by dealers and building crafts. Moral and 
ethical rationalizations have been used against pre- 
fabricated houses. The dii'ector of the New England 
division of the American Institute of Architects in 
May 1934 attacked prefabricated houses as tending 
"to substitute a life of vagrancy for responsible citi- 



"New York Times. Nov. 21. 192G. Sec, VIII. 12 : 1. 

« Montgomery, R. E., Industrial Relations in the Chicago BniUling 
Trades (Chicago, 1927), p. IGS. 

"Clark, Evans, The Internal Debts of the 'Dnilcd States (New 'i'ork, 
IQ-SS), p. 6. 

" Lonberg-Holm. K.. and Larson, C. T., Trends In Building Produc- 
tion, in Real Estate Record, vol. cxxxvii (Apr. 18, 19361. pp. 19-25. 



zenship in the community." ** The author of an arti- 
cle entitled, "Houses Cannot be Built Like Automo- 
biles", who speaks on behalf of architects against pre- 
fabrication, argues plaintively, "Spiritual, mental, and 
physical well-being is enhanced always by the exercise 
and development of individualism, especially when i-e- 
lated to the home and its environment. Housing that 
fails to respect these human values must be considered 
among the 'chats' to bo discarded." ^° 

Planned public housing projects such as slum clear- 
ance which afford the most efficient methods of utiliz- 
ing advanced technologies in the building industry, 
crash against the wall of vested private-property inter- 
ests. They meet the combined opposition of the own- 
ers of obsolete buildings, that nonetheless are still 
profitable, of landowners 'who demand prohibitive 
prices, of holders of mortgages who fear a deprecia- 
tion of housing values through the increase in avail- 
able homes. Achievements in building technology lie 
sterile in the face of the opposition of these interests. 
It has been calculated that at the rate of replacement 
between 1921 and 1933 of homes and apartments, the 
American house will be in use 142 years.'^" Such slow 
replacement, based on profits derived from old houses, 
impedes the building of new structures, hoMever press- 
ing the housing needs for the mass of the population 
of the United States may be. 

2. Psychological and Socio-economic 
Factors Involved in Resistance 
to Technological Innovations 

Each example of opposition to technological innova- 
tion that has here been given has obviously its unicjuei 
constellation of circumstances and causes. But com- 
parable situations appear frequently enough to permit 
a tabulation of the basic factors involved in resistance 
to technological advance. In every case there are both 
cultural and psychological factors pi'esent, related in 
an inextricable manner, as aspects of the same situa- 
tion; the cultural gives the historical and socio-eco- 
nomic setting which provoke a specific psychological 
response from the individuals participating. From 
the results of this study it is apparent that the psy- 
chological factors of habit, fear, desire for personality 
equilibrium and status, and the tendency of groups to 
coerce their members to conformity, are latent predis- 
posing factors toward resistance to change. The man- 
ner and degree in which these factors function depend 
on forces in the cultural environment. The most 
potent of the cultural factors are clearly economic : 
Efforts to maintain economic advantage and hegemony 



4s prp. Fabrication, in .-Vrchitect and Engineer, vol. cxvii (May 1934) 
73-74. 

'"I North. A. T., Houses Cannot Be Built Like Automobiles, in Amer- 
ican .\rchitect. vol. cxiii (December 1932). pp. 18-20. 

«> Clark, op. cit. p. 67. 



60 



National Resources Coimnittee 



over competing classes, and over competitors in the 
same industry and rivals for the same market in allied 
fields; costs of introducing the new method or product, 
which in its early form is usually crude and unstand- 
ardized, and but one of a number of innovations 
designed to solve the specific problem at hand; the 
losses incurred through the depreciation of machinery 
and goods made obsolete by the innovation; the un- 
wieldy structure and the rigidity of large scale cor- 
porate enterprises that hesitate to disturb a market 
which alreatly yields profits through restricted pro- 
duction; the difficulties of small-scale enterprise to 
make the necessary capital investments; the stultify- 
ing influence of capitalist crises; and labor's efforts 
within a profit system to prevent being victimized by 
technological uniMuployment, by loss of skill, by 
speed-up and lowered wages. There are also political 
factoi-s that have their own dynamics of functioning 
which may be directed to impede technological change, 
as for example the restricting iutluence of nationalism; 
faulty patent legislation and judicial decisions justify- 
ing suppression; the system of issuing "perpetual" 
franchises; the power of dominant industrial groups 
to control legislation to their interests as against bene- 
ficial innovations that imperil their profits. There are 
likewise religious forces that, as a rule, cement the 
status quo, and buttress resistant attitudes whose roots 
lie in more materialistic causes. 

A classification of causes in this manner tends to be 
too bare to be of much value, just as the diversity of 
their functioning in each particular case of resistance 
to tcehnolotrical chanjro. tends to obscure the common 
principles involved. For this reason, it is important 
that a framework of reference be given, by a picture 
of the psychological roots and the general socio-eco- 
nomic setting of this conservatism. 

Men, however variable, are everywhere of one species 
and for this reason similar psychological factors un- 
derlie all human behavior under whatever social insti- 
tutions men live. Resistance to change is, to this ex- 
tent, rooted in the individual, just as is its antithesis, 
receptivity to new experience. 

The tendency of an individual to persist in certain 
forms of set beha^•ior and to select experience in terms 
of these forms, ignoring or opposing variants, is based 
in part on what is vaguely called habit, or conditioned 
response. Although Pavlov and others have shown 
experimentally the genesis of these conditioned re- 
sponses, the physiology of retention at the basis of 
their formation is still little known."* Various the- 
ories have been proposed. Cason believes that the na- 



ture of the retention depends upon the degree of elas- 
ticity of the surface membranes of the nervous system, 
wliicii is determined by their chemical composition. '*- 
The theory of learrdng stemming from Sherrington 
regards tlie permeability of the synapse as the decisive 
factor.'^ Kappers holds that permanent connections 
in the nervous system are established through the 
growth of dendrites and axones under the influence of 
bio-electric currents." None of these theories are as 
yet conclusive; and the problem of the physiological 
basis of retention as one aspect of conservatism re- 
mains for future clarification. It should be recog- 
nized, moreover, that there is not necessarily any cor- 
relation between specific retention abilities and resist- 
ance to change. Conservatism is made possible by 
neural retention, but excellent retention can be asso- 
ciated with agile flexibility of behavior and attitude, 
while the archconservative may be weak in his power 
of retention. Resistant attitudes must be explained 
largely in terms of the symbolic rather than the neuro- 
physiological level of behavior. 

The adjustment of a person to his environment de- 
mands that he channelize his behavior to some extent 
in the interests of personality integration. He can- 
not be continuously expending his energies and under- 
going crises in making decisions. Judgments once 
made must serve as guiding precedents. A large part 
of his behavior of necessity becomes quasi-automatic 
involving little deliberation or judgment. This be- 
havior, oft -repeated, becomes suffused with emotional 
tones of pleasure, particularly when it involves skill- 
ful movements. One's personality becomes relatively 
at ease when it lias attained an element of equilibra- 
tion with the objects and persons with whom he comes '■ 
in contact. Personality becomes bound up with en- 
vironment by sentiments of intimacy. The strength 
of these attachments varj-, depending upon the degree 
of the stability of the culture in which one lives. 
Wliere social forms are moi-e dynamic and transient, 
the extent of permanency in adjustment is less than in 
a relatively static society. There is an emotional and 
aesthetic feeling of happiness derived from identifica- 
tion witli tiie customary forms when these forms pro- 
vide a minimum of gratification of human wants. 
Escape mechanisms facilitate a specious sense of ad- 
justment and fantasy creates a world of unreality 
which obscures actual discomfort particularly when 



" I'avlov. I P.. Conditioned Reflexes, tr, from flie Russian (Lenin 
grad. 1926) b.v G. V. Anrep (Oxford. 1927> ; Lectures on Conditioned 
Rcfloxos. tr. by W. H. Gantt (New York rev. ed. 19S6> ; and An At- 
tempt at a Physiological Interpretation of Obsessional Neurosis and 
Paranoia, in Journal of Mental Science, vol. Ixxx (1934> 1S7-97. 



"Cason. Ilulsey. The Physical Basis of tlic ComUtioncd Response, 
in American Journal of Psychology, vol. xxrvi (1925) 371-393. 

" Sherrington, C. S.. The Integrative .\ction of the Nervous System, 
Yale fniversity, Mrs. Hepsa Ely Silliman Memorial Lectures (New 
York. 1906 1. 

" Knppers. C. U. A... Further Contributions OE Neuroblotnxis : IX. 
.\n .\ttempt to Compare the Phenomena of Neurobiotaiis With Other 
Phenomena of Taxis and Tropism. The Dynamic Polarization of the 
Neurone, in Journal of Comparative Neurology, vol. ixvii (1916-17) 
261-298, 



Technological Trends 

the economics of a society offer no certainty of employ- 
ment and subsistence to its masses, and these live with- 
in the threatening shadow of insecurity. 

An innovation, especially one whicli affects one's 
economic status as in the case of technologies, rudely 
shatters whatever equilibrium a person has attained. 
It demands not only motor reconditioning but reor- 
ganization of personality to meet the needs of the new 
situation. Poise gives way to at least temporary un- 
certainty. One's place in the new configuration is 
uncertain. New decisions are demanded. Efforts must 
be expended; discomforts of readjustment experienced. 
Life becomes more complex, in that it is less routinized, 
and appeal's to teem with hazards. 

It is little wonder that an innovation, whatever its 
nature may be, provokes feelings of impropriety, and 
i-epelling defense attitudes of ridicule and disparage- 
ment, or is deliberately ignored and thus not permitted 
to enter experience. No matter how meager the ad- 
justment that has been attained, it is often viewed as 
superior to the seemingly tempestuous uncertainties 
involved in reorientation. Unless there are incentives 
which stimulate conscious effort toward change, ra- 
tionalizations ai'e used to justify the established be- 
havior by excuses which sanction it. This has been 
well expressed in the Declaration of Independence: 
" * * * all experience hath shewn that mankind 
are more disposed to suffer while evils are sufferable, 
than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to 
which they are accustomed." 

Resistances involving rationalizations are often made 
even if only slight changes in behavior are demanded 
because of the distrust of possible future connnitments. 
But the closer the new approximates the old, the more 
likely it is to be accepted. Innovations are smuggled 
in through transitional forms. The earlier forms of 
an innovation growing out of a specific culture — that 
is, not coming from without through diffusion — as a 
rule deviate little from the preceding forms that are 
being displaced. This happens sometimes by inten- 
tion, but primarily because of the limitations of in- 
novators, who, like their public, are bound by previous 
experience. Changes are made detail by detail and 
not at once, not only because of psychological inertias, 
but because an invention is circumscribed by existing 
knowledge and by the tools and materials available. 
To avoid the acceptance of the new, moreover, old 
forms of techniques may be reinterpreted or modified 
slightly, acquire new utility and value, and survive as 
rivals of the new. 

In the absence of unusual incentives, when an inno- 
vation is drastically novel, or because of its compli- 
cated nature, exacts fatiguing efforts for readjust- 
ment, or involves pain, however temporary and slight, 



Gl 

resistance is intense and rationalizations fiourish. To 
cling stubbornly to the old forms, however overwhelm- 
ing the details of their performance may be, is often 
regarded as preferable to going through the tem- 
porarily disturbing process of readjustment.'^^ 

Deliberation before accepting an innovation is of 
cour.se c<jnnnen<lable, for innovations are not always effi- 
cacious, and the hopes of the inventor are often illusory. 
Inventions, later to prove epoch-making, are sometimes 
in their initial form very crude, and even inferior to 
the forms in use. The social significance of many in- 
novations is hot realized, a fact well characterizetl by 
Maclver's analogy : "Inventions enter the world like 
new-born babes. Their power to change the modes of 
life and the thoughts of men does not appear until 
they are grown up." '° They often in their early 
trials prove failures. Furthermore, with innovations 
crowding upon one another, especially in modern 
times, when skills and fields of interests are specialized, 
it is difficult to know, and few are competent to judge, 
which will prove to be successful. Skepticism thrives 
on the fact that the annals of invention are crowded 
with innovations, originally hailed as epoch-mak- 
ing, that have come to naught. A mistake in judg- 
ment concerning one innovation leads to excessive cau- 
tion : "Once bitten ; twice shy." 

Opposition to imiovation is not invariably on a 
quasi-automatic level. Especially in economic and 
technological fields, there is involved conscious self- 
interest in the maintenance of status and, in some cases, 
even of life itself. Abstract "progress" usually rates 
insignificantly compared to the actual, immediate ef- 
fects which an innovation has directly on the person 
or class involved. 

Contemporary education in the United States ap- 
pears to do little to facilitate or promote receptivity 
to technological innovation and is rather occujjied with 
the organization and perpetuation of past experience 
and tradition. The majority of graduates, even of 
universities, remain ignorant of the relation of tech- 
nology to contemporary culture, and few technologists 
are educated outside of the narrow limits of their 
specialities. With few persons equipped with the ex- 
perimental or scientific method of verifying data, or 
accustomed or able to analyze proof as a criteria of 
truth, there must be recourse to authority. The vir- 
tue in such use of authority is counteracted by the 
fact that in the field of technology experts have 
been historically conservative, have been indifferent to 
and have lacked understanding of the social asjjects of 
their work, and have often been too biased in terms of 



'^'s stern, Bernhard J., Social Factors in Medical Progress (New York, 
1927), pp. 1-19. 

'" Maclver, R. M., "Civilization versus Culture", in University of 
Toronto Quarterly, vol. i (1931-32) 316-32. 



62 



Sational Resoin'oe/^ Committee 



their own schooling and specific research to give de- 
liberate and reasoned judgments. 

Tliere are factors involved in resistance to change 
that are implicit in group behavior. The collective 
behavior of groups is expedited by orderliness based on 
the ability to anticipate tlio behavior of their mem- 
bers. Innovations are disruptive in that they affect 
not isolated persons but members of groups who in- 
fluence the behavior of all witli whom they come in 
contact. There is in consequence group resentment 
against innovators because they disturb established re- 
lations, upset routines, and cause temporary confu- 
sion. Social pressure upon the deviant to conform 
follows. Caviling criticism, ridicule and disparage- 
ment, economic discrimination, social ostracism, and 
violence are utilized. In order to avoid such repris- 
als most persons endorse customary procedures and 
refrain from projecting or supporting innovations. 
Social approval gives the tone to personal adjustment, 
and the restraints imposed by group attitudes are 
thus powerful deterrents of change. The size of the 
community is a factor in determining the strength of 
its power of coercion. If it has many members, co- 
hesion is not as close, and the innovator, finding some 
sujjport, may be able to ignore detractors, but in a 
small community, contacts are more innnediate and 
the influence tends to be more direct. The deterrent 
of group criticism functions not only in the general 
group life of the comnumity, but within specific in- 
dustrial organizations. To avoid the impleasant, an 
individual tends to continue established routines rather 
than to venture with revolutionary innovations that 
will meet the resistance of his co-workers and superiors. 
"Not to venture, is not to lose", becomes a guiding 
principle unless incentives are strong. 

In different cultures, opposition to technological 
change has varied in its character and strength. 
The factors inhibiting innovation in primitive socie- 
ties, apply to a large extent to small isolated com- 
munities throughout history, and to rural communities 
in the modern world. Absence of a knowledge of 
writing in prelitcrate societies, and illiteracy in civi- 
lized societies, establish the need of conserving tradi- 
tion through speech and behavior. Sparcity of the 
technological base, a relatively scant margin of safety 
and wealth which permits few risks, the conformity 
demanded within closely related groups, little division 
of labor which diminishes the possibilities of experi- 
mentation, dominantly nonempirical attitudes, isola- 
tion which limits horizons and experience and permits 
few collisions with novel concepts from without, and 
close integration of different aspects of the cultural 
configuration — all intensify conservatism. 

In the ancient Morld, technological advances such as 
Hero's steam engine and mechanical appliances for 



construction work, were neglected mainly because of 
the abundance of the labor supplj-, because of the 
belief that it was degrading to science to put it to 
])ractical uses, and because of the disparaging social 
attitude toward artisans and manual labor. 

The cultural retrogression of the Middle Ages in 
Europe, which made the situation pi-evailing in many 
medieval connnunities approxiuuite in some respects 
that of primitive societies, was not conducive to in- 
novation, least of all in the field of technology. The 
hierarchic social stratification that was sanctioned as 
divinely ordained by the Church, which spiritualized 
poverty and denounced materialism and experimenta- 
tion, created an economic setting and authoritarian 
attitudes fatal to scientific progress and technological 
change. Medieval society was not entirely immobile 
and unprogressive. But local self-subsistence was a 
limiting economic frame, and the anti-scientific at- 
titude of the Church enfoi'ced hj heresj' trials afforded 
an environment hostile to scientific and technological 
innovations. 

The revival of interest in classical science, slowly 
followed by the beginnings of the experimental meth- 
ods: the discovery of new continents, the plunder of 
■which brought vast new wealth to Europe; the rise 
of cities with consequent increasing power of the 
burghers formed the social setting of capitalism that 
accelerated change and led the way to increasing re- 
ceptivity to technological progress. Delays were now 
occasioned not only by efforts of the aristocracy to 
check the rise of the industrial bourgeoisie, but fac- 
tors, peculiar to the structure and functioning of 
capitalism, impeded technological advance. 

Under capitalism, the almost exclusive incentive to 
the incorporation of technological improvements into 
industry has been the drive for profits. The profit 
motive undoubtedly served as a ferment, accelei-ating 
change, in the early days of capitalism in contrast to 
a relatively static feudal economy. Its effectiveness in 
this respect was and is dependent upon the availability 
of markets, and the need to acquire or maintain con- 
trol of that market in competition with rival capital- 
ists. When new continents were being opened as mar- 
kets, and capitalism was an expanding economy, new 
machinery could more readily be used to supplement 
the old. Competition between entrepreneurs, although 
it led to wasteful anarchic production and marketing, 
to some extent stimulated a response to technological 
innovation to keep ahead of competitors. But in the 
degree to which monopoly in the setting of the profit 
system is able to control prices, standardize products, 
and restrict production, alertness to technological 
change is diminished, a brake is put on inventions and 
their applications. 



Technological Trends 



63 



William ^M. Grosvenor has, in Chemical Markets, 
expressed the sentiments of modern corporate manage- 
ment toward the utilization of new inventions: 

I have even seen the lines of progress that were most promis- 
ing for the public benefit, wholly neglected or positively for- 
bidden just because they might revolutionize tlie industry. 
We have no right to expect a corporation to cut its own throat 
from purely elemosynary motives * * *. Wliy should a cor- 
poration spend its earnings and deprive its stockholders of 
dividends to develop something that will upset its own market 
or junk all its present equipment » • • when development 
is directed by trained and experienced men responsible to stock- 
holders for expenditures, they have little inducement to try to 
supersede that which they are paid to develop and improve." 

Harry Jerome, after a study of mechanization of 
industry under the auspices of the National Bureau of 
Economic Research, likewise formulated the principle 
that guides the relation of present-day capitalism to 
technological progress : 

Technical progress far outruns actual practice. This margin 
of nonuse is in part due to nonpecunlary factors, but the major 
explanation is simply that, on the whole, industry must be 
conducted with profits as the immediate goal ; hence the first 
and major consideration in any choice of method is not merely, 
Will it do the work? but also Will it pay?" 

The results upon technological invention of excessive 
rigidity of monopolistic enterprise, arising from its 
fear of imperiling its heavy investments, especially 
in durable goods, and from its elaborate mechanics of 
functioning, was noted before the Oldfield Hearings 
on Patents in 1912, by Louis D. Brandeis : 

These great organizations are constitutionally unprogressive. 
They will not take on the big thing. Take the gas companies 
of this country ; they would not touch the electric light. Take 
the telegraph company, the Western Union Telegraph Co., 
they would not touch the telephone. Neither the telephone 
company nor the telegraph company would touch wireless 
telegraphy. Now, you would have supposed that in each one 
of these instances those concerns if they had the ordinary 
progressiveness of Americans would have said at once, "We 
ought to go forward and develop this." But they turned it 
down, and it was necessary in each one of those instances, 
in order to promote those great and revolutionizing inventions, 
to take entirely new capital." 

Charles F. Kettering, vice president and director of 
research of the General Motors Corporations, likewise 
stated in this connection in 1927: 

Bankers regard research as most dangerous and a thing 
that makes banking hazardous, due to the rapid clianges it 
brings about in industry * * * "" 

Monopolies are themselves not only irresponsive to 
change, but through their control of basic patents and 



5' Grosvenor. W. M., The Seeds of Progress, In Chemical Markets, vol. 
xxiv (1929) 23-26. 

^ Jerome, op. cit. p. 33. 

" U. S. Congress, House, Committee on Patents. Oldflcld Revision 
and Codiflcation of the Patent Statutes : Hearings, 62d Cong., 2d sess. 
(1912) no. 18, p. 12. 

^ Address before Association of National Advertisers, in Detroit, 
May 9, 1927. 

8778^ — 37 <J 



improvements, and also of kindred patents, only a few 
of which tliey utilize or develop, they prevent others 
from making technological changes in the fields which 
they preempt. Such is the testimony of the Inventors' 
Guild: 

It is a well-known fact that modern trade combinations 
tend strongly toward constancy of processes and products, 
and by their very nature are opposed to new processes and 
new products originated by independent Inventors, and hence 
tend to restrain competition in the development and sale of 
patents and i)atent rights; and oon.sequently tend to discourage 
independent inventive thought."' 

Judicial decisions in United States courts have sanc- 
tioned the suppression of patents in decisions which 
are of primary importance when resistance to tech- 
nological change in the United States is being ap- 
praised. In 1896 the judgment of the court was that 
the patentee "may reserve to himself the exclusive use 
of his invention or discovery * * *. jjis title is 
exclusive, and so clearly with the constitutional pro- 
visions in respect of private property tiiat he is neither 
bound to use his discovery himself, nor permit others 
to use it." When this decision was reafRrmed in 1909, 
it was declared that 'the public has no right to compel 
the use of patented devices or of unpatented devices 
when that is inconsistent with fundamental rules of 
property." '^- Technological progress is thus inex- 
tricably made dependent upon property rights inter- 
preted in terms of individual rights and the rights of 
a specific industry as against the interests of the com- 
munity. In practice, this interpretation benefits large 
corporations. For it is the consistent experience of 
inventors that they are helpless to promote their pat- 
ents independently in fields which are dominated by 
such corporations. A chief obstacle is, of course, lack 
of capital to put their plans in operation."^ They hud 
themselves involved in costly infringement suits, and 
harassed by interference procedures, which oblige them 
to sell their patents to the large-scale enterprises with 
conceiitratetl capital resources, and in this way take 
a chance at their suppression. Patent pools often 
keep the benefit of patents within a small circle of 
corporations and restrain indeiiendents from their use, 
thus preventing broad technological advance. The 
rule of monopolies in technological change suggests at 
once an analogy ^vitli the restraining influence of the 
medieval guilds. 

It is often argued that the establislrment of labora- 
tories and research associations by large corporations 
and cartels dis^iroves the charge of inflexibility of 
giant industry. But these relatively few research de- 



"'Vauslian, op. cit. p. 212. 

»=Vaughan. op. cit. p. 161, 164. 

"Rossman, Joseph. The Ps.vcholog.v of the Inventor (Washington, 
1931). pp. 161-162; Wyman, W. I., Patents for Scientiflc Discoverie.s, 
in Patent Office Society Journal, vol. xi (1920). p. 552. 



64 



National Resources Committee 



partments give the corporations greater control over 
the innovations that miglit disturb the market. Ac- 
cording to Grosvenor, only 12 out of the 75 most 
important inventions made between 1889 and 1929 were 
products of corporations' research."^ Evidence tliat 
inventions under these auspices are not fully utilized 
is given in the British Report of the Committee on 
Industry and Trade, made in 1929, by Sir Arthur 
Balfour: 

It is when we come to consider the relation between the 
research associations and the industries themselves, and the 
extent to which these industries avail themselves in prac- 
tice of the results of research by their own associations, that 
we find most cause for disquietude ♦ * *. We have laid 
special stress on the importance of this aspect of the question 
of scientific research in relation to industry, because, in our 
opinion, it is the imperfect receptivity toward scientific ideas 
on the part of British industry which is at the moment the 
main obstacle to advance." 

The dominance of profit over these research activi- 
ties is seen in the drastic retrenchment in research staffs 
I concomitant with the economic crisis. 

While in its early periods capitalism was more re- 
sponsive to advance in technology, there have always 
been within it, forces which have checked maximum 
receptivity to technological innovations. Factors in- 
herent in the structure of capitalism have often made 
technological innovation overwhelmingly, and some- 
times exclusively, in the interests of a relatively few 
owners of industry, and to the disadvantage, some- 
times temporary, but often permanent, to the masses 
of the population. The technical innovations in the 
early phases of the industrial revolution were intro- 
duced with callous disregard of the havoc they wrought 
in the lives of the skilled artisans, as have such 
changes, with few exceptions, since. They have in 
fact been utilized repeatedly to curb the militance of 
labor. Andrew Ure acknowledged this already in 
1835 when he called the invention of the self-acting 
mule "a creation destined to restore order among the 
industrious classes * * *" and added "This inven- 
tion confirms the great doctrine already propounded, 
that when cai^ital enlists science in her service the 
refractory hand of labor will always be taught docil- 
ity."*" James Nasmyth is quoted to have declared 
that the desire to break strikes was a prime factor in 
the introduction of machinery: 

In the case of many of our most potent self-acting tools 
and machines, manufacturers could not be induced to adopt 
them- until compelled to do so by strikes. This was the case 



•' Gro-svenor, op. clt. p. 24. 

"Great Britain, I'omniittee on Indu.stry and Trade, Final Report, 
Comd. 3->S2 (London. 192!)). pp. 215, 21S. 

•'Ure, Andnw, Tlie I'liilosopliy of Jlanufacturo.'i (London, 1835), 
pp. 3CT-368. 



with the .^jelf-acting mule, the wool-combing machine, the 
planing machine, the slotting machine, Nasmyths steam-arm 
and many others." 

Workers can hardly be expected to be receptive to 
technological changes in the specific fields in which 
thej' are employed, when they are cognizant that their 
skills will be rendered worthless and their status im- 
periled by resulting unemployment. It is opposition 
so motivated that has sometimes reached dramatic 
proportions, in many industries, particularly in the 
textile, mining, iron and steel, shoe, machinery, cloth- 
ing, railroad, cigar, and glass industries. 

The degree of trade-union or class consciousness de- 
termines the extent to which workers in a situation 
of technological change understand, articulate, and 
act upon their resentment at being the victims of 
such change. It also decides the form which their 
expression takes. Among unorganized workers, action 
is often directed against the machine itself as the 
immediate cause of their degradation, with the result 
that machine wrecking occurs. Trade-unions i-eject 
the tactic of destroying machiner}' and seek to sub- 
stitute organized measures of bargaining with era- 
l^loyers to lessen the impact of the tragedy of dis- 
placement through the more gradual introduction of 
the machine or process, and by demands for compen- 
sation to those displaced. Socialists and communists 
likewise discourage wrecking of machinery, support 
trade-union methods to get as much for the workers 
involved as is possible in a given situation, advocate 
social insurance programs to take care of the unem- 
ployed, as do many trade-unionists, and at the same 
time seek to crystallize resentment in preparation for 
a seizure by power by labor to establish an economy 
in which technology will not be subject to the exi- 
gencies of a profit sj'stem but may be used to the 
tidiest in the interests of the entire population. 

The failure of industry to keep abreast of technique 
is due in part to the periodic crises in capitalist econ- 
omy. Even in periods of the upward swing of the 
cycle there is always the inliibiting fear of introducing 
technological changes that will cause overproduction 
and accelerate another crisis. Inasmuch as attempts 
at planning under capitalism have been directed to- 
ward restricting production, they have acted as curbs 
upon technological innovation. In the midst of 
a crisis, with available machinery working at but a 
fraction of its capacity, few new inventions are utilized 
except for the purpose of lowering labor costs. In 
1932, for example, purchases of industrial machinery 
in the United States are reported to have declined 74 



•'Smiles. Samuel. Industrial Biograpliy (new ed. London. 1876), pp. 
294-295. 



Technological Trends 



65 



percent under the aniuiiil average for 1919-29.''^ In 
hearinp:s before the House Committee on Patents in 
1932, Representative Hatton W. Sumners of Texas 
argued that the Patent Office should cease granting 
patents on labor-saving devices because of unemploy- 
ment."' Efforts were made to restrict productive 
capacity and thus to maintain or raise prices under the 
N. R. A. The Research and Planning Division of 
the N. R. A. reported in February 19:55, that all con- 
struction was restricted by code provisions in the fol- 
lowing industries : Cordage and twine, petroleum, glass 
container, excelsior, American glassware, crushed 
stone, structural claj', rooting tile, drain tile, China 
clay, floor tile, alloys, iron and steel, carbon black, 
pyrotechnics, candle, tool and implement, and ice. 
Ten of these codes merely stipulated that no construc- 
tion be made without authorization of the code 
authorities, and six permitted "modernization." Code 
amendments also restricted construction in the cotton 
textile and lace manufacturing industries." On the 
other hand, the raising of wage levels led many em- 
ployers to substitute machinery for labor, and to 
rationalize their plants, so that the influence of the 
N. R. A. in discouraging technological change varied 
in different industries.'' 

In public works and in private industry, there have 
been moreover in times of crisis definite evidences of 
retrogression in technology. Advocacy of the return 
to earlier mechanical processes in public works de- 
rives from an attempt to solve the problem of unem- 
ployment. The Engineering News Record of Decem- 
ber 11, 1930, declares replacement of machines by hand 
labor to be : 

a burning question with many city engineers and administra- 
tive officials. Some have already auswercd it in favor of 
hand labor. * * * Minneapolis is planning to use i)lck-aud- 
shovel men instead of machinery in its winter program of 
municipal improvements. Boston proposes to abolish the use 
of snow-loading machines in clearing its streets after a snow- 
fall. Newark has just begun hand excavation in converting 
the abandoned Morris Canal to a subway roadbed. Akron and 
Sacramento have put the pick-and-shovel plan into prac- 
tice. * * * And so the list goes." 



'^ Industy is Thirty Billion Dollars Bphind on New Equipment Pur- 
chases and Industry Needs Modernization but Awaits Low-Cost Capital 
in Business Week. no. 154 (1932) 20-21; no. 155 (1032) 1-1-lG. 

«° Sumners. H. W., in U. S. Congress, House, Committee on Patents, 
Patents : Hearing on General Revision of Patent Laws, 72d Cong., 
1st sess. (1932), pp. 39^6. 

™ U. S. National Recovery Administration. Research and Planning 
Division, Report on the Operation of the National Industrial Recovery 
Act (Washington 193.5), p. 53. 

'^ Strachey, John, The Two Wings of the Blue Eagle, in Nation, vol. 
cxxxvii (1934), 42-43; Lyon. L. S.. and others. The National Recovery 
Administration, Brookings Institution, the Institute of Economics, Pub- 
lication No. Is (Washington 1935) ; Standard Statistics Co., Inc., 
Standard Trade and Securities, vol. Ixxi, no. 2. sec. 1 (,Tan. 3, 1934), 
p. Mo— MS, vol. Ixxxvi, no. 35. .sec. 3 (.Tune 19, 193.-.), PM.\-9— M.\-ll. 

'= Schmitt, F. E., Hand Against Machine Work in Engineering News- 
Record, vol. cv (1930), 915. 



In private industry the shrinking of the markets 
which favored mass-production methods has necessi- 
tated in some cases the abandonment of the technolo- 
gies at the basis of such methods and the return to ma- 
chinery which produces more economically for a local 
market. Albert Kelsey, technical adviser to the Pan 
American Union, reported in 1931 that several South 
American countries were contemplating steps to abol- 
ish machine work and to substitute hand labor, that 
Bolivia had practically penalized the use of machines 
in mining, and that Chile was considering the aboli- 
tion of motor trucks.'" 

A return to small-scale pi-oduction methods in indus- 
try and agriculture cannot help but curtail technolog- 
ical progress at this period of history. Scientific re- 
.search upon which modern teclmological invention is 
based has too many ramifications and is too costly to 
be undertaken and financed by small producers. In- 
evitably, existing technology, which is the primary 
contribution of the western world to civilization, could 
not be maintained; its continuance has ah'cady met 
strenuous opi)osition wherever the theory or practice 
of small-scale production is current." 

Retrogression has been justified and even commended 
in antimachine polemics such as those of Sp^^-ngler 
who writes: '"The flight of the born leaders from the 
machine is beginning." Comparable sentiments are 
expressed in the works of publicists attached to agra- 
rian movements such as the Southern Agrarians in the 
United States.'^ In most of this literature love of the 
past degenerates into a flight from the present; and 
the Middle Ages has been idealized as an escape from 
the depressing conditions of a capitalist crisis. Nine- 
teenth century movements for the revival of handi- 
crafts, such as that led by William Morris, were simi- 
larly backward looking in their implications. They 
were not motivated, however, by aristocratic revulsion 
to the machine as invading the prerogatives of a land- 
lord class, as are primarily the social philosophies of 
Spengler in Germany, and comparable publicists in 
England, and in the United States, but rather by sym- 
pathy for the plight of machine workers and esthetic 
dissatisfaction with the ugly products of early ma- 
chine production. Gandhi's attempt to prevent the 
displacement of handicraft by machine economy is 
due to his identification of machine technology with 
British imperialism. In most countries there have 
been requests for "scientific holidays" and a "mora- 



■' New York Times, Dec. 29, 1931, p. 7. 

'■> The Frustration of Science, by Sir Daniel Hale, J. G. Crowther, 
J. D. Bernal. and others (London 1935) ; Rubinstein, M. I., Science, 
Technology, and Economics under Capitalism and in the Soviet Union 
(Moscow 1932). 

'-Spengler, Oswald, Der Mensch und die Technik (Munich 1931), tr. 
by C. I'\ Atkinson as Man and Technics (New York 1932). Agar, Her- 
bert, and Tate, Allen, eds., Who Owns America? (Boston, 1936). 



66 



National Resources Committee 



toriiim on inventions", whicli have found echo in busi- 
ness and scientific circles. Such climate of opinion is 
hardly healthy for technological advance. On the 
other liand, in the Soviet Union technological progress 
is being fostered as a means of achieving the govern- 
mental objective of a socialist, planned, large-scale 
economy for the satisfaction of ex])anding consumers' 
needs." 

In summary, resistance to technological change has 
been so much a i)art of the texture of the historical 
process, that it cannot be ignored when the future of 



'"Webb. Sidney and Beatrice. Soviet Coninumism : A New Civilization 
(New York 19.i6), pp. 767-71 : Moore. Harrief. The Stakhanov Movement 
In American Russian Institute. Uesearcli Bviiletin. vol, i. no. 2 tNew 
Xork 1936). 



teclmology is charted. There are psychological factors 
in individual and group beliavior wliicli predispose 
toward inertia in receptivity to innovation, but tliese 
may be countt'ibulanceil by potent incentives that 
promise material and nonmatorial rewards. The basic 
determinants of tlie presence or absence of impedi- 
ments to technological change lie therefore in the 
nature of the social, and primarily the economic, struc- 
tui'e of a society, in the degree to which it offers incen- 
tives to the masses of the po^mlation and in tlie man- 
ner in which these can be realized tlirough a phmned 
economy. Capitalism has inlierent in its structure and 
functioning, factors which militate against such reali- 
zation, and tlius prevent industrial [jractice from keep- 
ing apace with scientific knowledge. 



V. UNEMPLOYMENT AND INCREASING PRODUCTIVITY 



By David Wointraub ' 



Introduction 

The economic liieruturo of tlie past two centuries 
is interspersed with debates concerning the effects of 
tlie increasing use of machinery on the voknne of em- 
ployment. The introduction in the eighteenth and 
nineteenth centuries of the early forerunners of our 
modern machinery was in many instances considered 
by workers and government authorities alike as an 
evil to be averted. This was particularly true in Eng- 
land between 1725 and 1775 wlien new machines were 
being widely introduced in the textile industries. The 
■workers involved had no assurance that these labor- 
saving devices meant anything more to them than lost 
employment opportumties, and the land owners and 
sheep raisers saw in the coming rise of the cotton- 
manufacturing industry the destruction of their own 
markets for wool. The results were machine-breaking 
I'iots, persecution of inventors, and legal restrictions. 
John Kay, who invented the flying shuttle in 1733, was 
forced to flee the country; Hargreaves, the inventor 
of the sijinning jenny (1764), was compelled to cliange 
his residence; and Crompton, who invented the spin- 
ner's mule in 1779, was forced to go into hiding. The 
prohibition on the manufacture of all-cotton fabrics 
in England was not lifted until 1774. 

Since those early days of our industrial society, 
every period of widespread unemployment has brought 
with it a revival of the old protests and the old dis- 
cussions. The most recent protests against the intro- 
duction of labor-saving devices have been no less 
earnest, albeit less violent, than those of the eighteenth 
century. Yet we need only to look about us to ob- 
serve the tremendous multiplication of labor oppor- 
tunities which past technological improvements have 
provided in creating vast new industries and new 
services. The question is whether any economic 
changes have occurred during recent years and espe- 
cially during the last two decades which justify the 
dark prophecies of ever-increasing unemployment that 
have become current of late. 

The vast number of persons unemployed since 1929, 
and the apparent disparity between recent production 
increases in certain industries and the extent of re- 
employment in these industries ha\e aroused new in- 
terest in the problem of "technological displacement" 
and unemployment. With recovery in industry and 



' Dliector of the Works Progress Administration National Research 
Project on Reemployment Opportunities and Recent Changes in Indus- 
trial Techniques. He was assisted by Harold L. Posner. 



business manifesting itself in incrcaseil production 
and sales, increased employment, and increased profits 
and dividends, we face the disturbing realization that 
estimates of the number of unemployed show no pro- 
portionate decrease and that the relief burden remains 
at a high level. Numerous startling developments in 
production techniques and some recent dramatic in- 
stances of displacement of workers through the intro- 
duction of these new techniques have helped to focus 
attention on the effects of decreasing labor re<iuirc- 
ments per unit of production on the volume of 
employment. 

A full investigation of the effects of changing tech- 
nology on the volume of employment and unemploy- 
ment would involve an analysis of the effects of chang- 
ing prices of goods and services, of changing costs 
of capital and labor and the changing proportions of 
each employed in the production process, of changing 
demands for goods and services, and of a multitude 
of other factors which play an important part in 
determining the profitableness of employing workers. 
Only such an economic analysis, dealing with the 
fundamental elements of our economic society, could 
be exj^ected to arrive at conclusions concerning the 
underlying causes of unemployment in general and 
the particular type of unemployment which might be 
attributed to changing industrial techniques. Such an 
analysis would have to extend far beyond the size and 
scope of a i-ejiort of this nature. Since, however, the 
net effects of the underlying economic factors find 
their quantitative expression in the net changes of the 
volume of production and emiDloyment, a brief sta- 
tistical analysis of the relationship between the total 
volume of goods and services produced in the country 
and the number of hired workers engaged in this pro- 
duction offers an af^proach toward a better under- 
standing of the nature of a problem which has come 
to be referred to popularly as that of '•technological 
unemployment." While such a statistical analysis 
may not permit the drawing of any conclusions as to 
the underlying causes of what occurred during the 
jDeriod under consideration, it at least makes possible 
an examination of some of the measurable effects in 
a new light. It is therefore proposed, in this repoi-t, 
to subject the period since 1920 to a bird's-eye view — to 
examine the available statistical information on the 
volume of production and employment in the light of 
the changes in output per man-year which took place 
during this period, and to bring together data which 
indicate to what extent employment dislocations have 

67 



68 



National Resources Committee 



occurred and occiiiiatioiial readjustments have been 
made necessar}- by the clumges in the character and 
techniques of production.^ 

Production, Employment, and Unemployment 

An over-ail picture of the chan<i;ing number of 
ompioynient opportunities in the light of changing 
productivity ^ requires over-all measures of the volume 
of goods and services produced in the country and the 
volume of hired labor employed in the creation of this 
national product. The first question then is, How has 
the volume of goods and services produced varied 
frDiu year to year since 1920? 

The National Output 

The statistician faces a gi'eat many coin])lex ques- 
tions, freciuentJy bordering on tlie metaphysical, when 
he attempts to construct a measure of the changing 
volume of total physical production. But inasmuch 
as such measures, however, crude they may be. are 
extremely useful as indicators of liow well or how 
badly the economy of the country is faring, a mnnber 
of attempts have been made lo consti'uct them. The 
results are always hedged around with all manner of 
qualifications,^ but the \ery need for these indexes has 
resulted in their widespread acceptance. Aside from 
the usual deficiencies from which such indexes suffer, 
none of the available indexes of the "jihysical volume 
of jjroduction" takes into account the volume of com- 
mercial services which constitute an important section 
of our economy. The omission of this growing source 
of gainful eni[)loyment has been due primarily to the 
difficulty of applying appropriate physical measures 
to this type of economic activity. Since an over-all 
picture of the ciianging \olume of employment oppor- 
tunities cannot possibly leave out of consideration this 
expanding group of industries, it is necessary to use a 
different, an all-inclusive, measure of the growth of 
production — the national income. 

"Year in, year out the people of this country, as- 
sisted by the stock of goods in their po.ssessioii, render 
a vast volume of work toward the satisfaction of their 
wants. Some of this work eventuates in connnodities, 
such as coal, steel, clothing, furniture, automobiles; 
other takes the form of direct, personal services, such 
as are rendered by ]>hysicians, lawyers. Government 
officials, domestic servants, and the like. Botli types 



•A number of surveys designofl to collect and analyze both original 
and published data on these and other aspects of the relationship be- 
tween employment upportunitics and changes in industrial techniques 
are now in progress under the direction of the National Research 
Project. 

•The term "productivity" as used in this chapter means the ratio; 
quantity output per employee man-year. For further discussion of the 
concept, see the section on *'0ver-aII productivity." 

'.Arthur F. Burns. Production Trends in the United States Since 
JS70 (New York: National Iturcau of licononiic Research, l'J34), pp. 
254-2U1. 



of activity involve an effort on the part of an indi- 
vidual and an expenditure of some \y.\vt of the coun- 
try's stock of goods. If all connnodities produceil 
and all personal sen'ices rendered dming the year 
are added at their market value, and from the result- 
ing total we subtract tiie value of that part of the 
nation's stock of goods which was expended (both as 
raw materials and as capital etiiiipment) in produc- 
ing this total, then the remainder constitutes the net 
product of the national economy during the year. It 
is referred to as national income produced, and may 
be defined briefly as that part of the economy's end- 
l)roduct which is attributable to the efforts of the 
individuals who comprise a nation."* The "national 
income produced" thus represents the net value of the 
goods and services produced through the "efforts 
whose results appear on the market place of our 
economy." " 

In order to convert these monetary values of income 
produced into measures representing the varying 
((iiantities of goods and services jjrodiiced annually, it 
is necessary to adjust them for changes in the value 
of monej'. This may be done bj- applying an appro- 
priate index of prices to the monetary value, thus 
obtaining what may be referred to as the "volume of 
goods and services produced." It is virtually im- 
possible to construct a completely satisfactory index 
for deflating monetary national income. Since, how- 
ever, some index must be used in order to make even 
a i-()ugh adjustment rather than "leave the dollar 
totals completely uncorrected for the striking changes 
in the purchasing power of the dollar that occurred" 
during the period since 1920, it was decided to use the 
index of "prices of finished goods" constructed bj' Dr. 
Simon Kuznets and used by him to adjust "income 
produced" for changes in purchasing power.'' The 
index used is of course subject to all the limitations 
which are inherent in a fixed-weight composite of its 
nature. Insufficient importance, for example, is given 
to consumers' services and "nonessentials" which con- 
stituted an increasing proportion of the national in- 
come produced over the period. Another criticism 
might concern the fact that the })rices included in the 
index reflect the prices of goods sold during the year 
but not necessarily jiroduced that year, while the 
index of output covers goods i)rodncod but not neces- 
sarily sold. In general, however, the broad outlines 
of the deflater used here are much the same as those 



' U. S. Congress, Senate, National Income, 19S9-.11. S. Doc. No. 124, 73d 
Cong., 2d sess., 1934, p. 1. For detailed desscriptlon of the limitations 
of the concept "national income produced" see ch. I. 

" Ibid., p. 0. 

• Income Originating in \ine Basic Industries, I9l9-Si (National 
Hureau of Kconomic Research Bulletin D'J, May 4, 1936), p. C. The 
index was constructed by combining an index of the price of capital 
goods with the B. L. S. index of the cost of living, using the weights 
1 and 9, respectively. 



Technological Trends 



69 



of other indexes prepared for similar purposes and 
it is felt that despite the weaknesses iiJicrent in any 
index of this nature tlie resulting "volume of goods and 
services" fairlj* depicts the growth and decline of the 
national output it purports to represent. More com- 
plete data and more refined techniipies of measuring 
both national income and pi"ice changes would undoubt- 
edly improve the accuracy of the year-to-year fluctua- 
tions, but it is highly questionable whether such 
improvements would malorially change the general 
picture. 

Table 1. — Indexes of monetai-ji ineome prodiieed, prices of 
finished goods, and volume of goods and services produced, 
1920-35 

[1920=1001 



Year 


National 
monetary 

income 
produced ' 


Price of 
finished 
goods ' 


Volume of 

goods and 

services 

produced • 


(1) 


(2) 


(3) 


(4) 


1920 . 


100 
80 
90 
103 
105 
• 114 
116 
116 
120 
124 
104 
82 
60 
63 
72 
79 


100 
89 
82 
85 
85 
86 
87 
86 
84 
85 
83 
76 
68 
65 
68 
69 


100 


1921 


90 


1922 


110 


1923.- - 


122 


1924 - - 


125 


1925 - 


132 


1926 


133 


1927 


135 


1928 -- 


142 


1929 


146 


1930 


125 


1931 


108 


1932 ... . 


88 


1933 


97 


1934 


106 


1935' 


114 







1 For 1920-29, the index is based on "realized income", less "imputed income" 
plus "business savings" as shown in Levin, Moulton, and Warburton, America's 
Capacity to Consume (Washington, D. C, 1934), table 5, pp.152-153; this series was 
spliced to the "income produced" data, 1929-35, as shown in Survey of Current 
Business, July 193G, p. 18. Income from work relief was e.xcluded. 

> S. Kuznets, Income Originating in Nine Basic Industries, 1919-34 (National 
Bureau of Economic Kesearch Bulletin 59, 1936), table 3, p. 24. An index of the cost 
of capital goods was combined with the B. L. S. cost of living index with weights of 
1 and 9, respectively. The figtire for 1935 was constructed by the authors, using the 
same method. 

' Column (2) divided by column (3). 

* Preliminary. 

Note. — All figures were rounded after computations were made. 

The three statistical series, monetary income, prices, 
and the quantitative volume of goods and services 
produced, are shown in table 1. It will be observed 
that while the total national monetary income pro- 
duced i-ose 24 percent from 1920 to 1929, the total 
quantity of goods and services produced in the coun- 
try, according to these estimates, increased 46 percent. 
After the sharp declines during the years 1929 to 1932, 
the monetary income rose 19 points from 1932 to 1935 
to a point equal to 79 percent of the 1920 level, while 
the physical income climbed 26 points during the same 
period and reached a level 14 percent higher than the 



quantity of goods and services produced in 1920. It 
should be borne in mind, however, that since the i)op- 
iilation of the country increased 19 percent from 1920 
to 1935, the goods and services produced per capita 
in 1935 were still equal to only 96 percent of the 1920 
production. 

The National Labor Force 

With this over-all picture of (he fluctuations in the 
national output before us we now turn to the second 
question: How much hired labor was engaged in the 
creation of this annual product and how much of the 
labor available for employment remained unused? 
Again we run into statistical difficulties. While the 
obstacles encountered with respect to employment and 
unemployment statistics are different from those en- 
countered in the field of production statistics, it is 
perhaps equally difficult to determine the number of 
workers employed during the years from 1920 to 1935. 
Although the amount of information concerning the 
volume of employment has grown immensely during the 
last two decades, the data available for the period 
prior to 1930 are rather fragmentai-y and the statis- 
tics for the years since 1930, while representing a vast 
improvement over the preceding period, still leave 
many fields of economic activity unexplored. It thus 
again became necessary to gather whatever informa- 
tion was available and to construct the best estimates 
of employment and unemployment that could be ob- 
tained under the circumstances. 

United States Census occupation statistics for 1920 
and 1930 present data on the number of ''persons 10 
years old and over gainfully occupied." Since this 
chapter concerns itself only with the effects of chang- 
ing productivity on the employment opportunities of 
those who depend upon paid jobs for their livelihood 
and are, therefore, subject to unemployment, all enter- 
prisers, self-employed, and unpaid family workers on 
farms have been subtracted from the census figures in 
order to arrive at the number of workers "available 
for employment." The figures for the years between 
1920 and 1930 have been interpolated, taking into 
account the flow of immigration, emigration, and 
farm-city movements.^ For the years after 1930 the 
estimates are based on changes in the age distribution 
of the population, as well as immigration and farm- 
city movements, and therefore include those who un- 
der "normal" conditions would have obtained their first 
employment experience but who, during the period of 



* Gainful workrrs returning to farms are, likp farmers and their 
unpaid family workers, not considered part of the labor supply so long 
as they remain on the farm. Their inclu.sion, however, would make 
very little difference in tlie size of the labor supply, since there was a 
net movement to the farm during the depression of only some 26G,000 
persons (in 19.32), or approxim.ntely 100,000 gainful workers. See 
Farm Population Estimates (U. S. Dept. of Agr., mimeographed, Oct. 
27, 1936.) 



70 



National Resources Comviittee 



widespread unemployment, maj' never have worked." 
It was not found possible to make any adjustments 
which would take into account variations in the con- 
cept of "employability", although it is known that 
the drastic changes wrought by the depression have, 
on the one hand, compelled many persons to seek jobs 
who would otherwise not liave been available for em- 
ployment and, on the other hand, forced many people 
out of the labor market because of the realization of 
their inability to obtain employment. 

Including therefore, as far as jiossible, all persons in 
the United States who are ordinarily employed by 
others, we arrive at an estimate of the total of the 
country's supplj- of labor for hire each year. It is 
known, however, that a i:)ortion of the labor supply at 
any given time is actuallj^ not available for work be- 
cause of illness, vacations, voluntary transfers between 
jobs, labor disputes, and similar reasons for idleness. 
On the basis of the 1930 census data on unemploy- 
ment, it is estimated that ajiproximately 2i/2 percent 
of the total supply of workers is "unusable" for these 
reasons.'" The remainder of the labor supply repre- 
sents the country's total manpower available for liiro. 
(See table 2 and fig. 1.) 

The next step involved the construction of estimates 
of the proportion of this available manpower which 
was actually emploj'ed in the creation of the goods 
and services produced each year. Data available in 
the United States Bureau of the Census, the United 
States Bureau of Mines, the United States Bureau of 
Labor Statistics, and the Interstate Commerce Com- 
mission were used for this purpose, together with the 
data published by the Ohio State Department of In- 
dustrial Relations which give rather complete informa- 
tion on emploj'ment fluctuations in the various fields 
of economic activity. The annual estimates based on 
these sources represent averages of the total number of 
workers who appeared on pay rolls during each year 
since 1920. Since the sources make no distinction be- 
tween part-time and full-time employees, the imad- 



• Tile Census of Occupntions includes only those who either have or 
at one time hart a "usual occuiialinn." 

'"The 1930 Census of Unemployment reported that of the total 
"gainful persons" in 1930 approximately 1.000.000 workers, or 2 percent. 
were not available for work for these reasons. The groups included in 
this calculation consist of the following census classes : class C — per- 
sons out of a job and unable to work : class D — persons having jobs 
but idle on account of sickness or disability ; class E — persons out of 
a job and not looking for work ; class F — persons having jobs but 
voluntarily idle without pay. To these classes were also added that 
portion of those listed under cl.nss A (persons out of a job. able to 
work, and looking for work) and class B (persons having jobs but on 
lay-off without pay, excluding those sick and voluntarily idle) who 
were not working because of : voluntary absence, personal disability, 
family reasons, labor disputes, and dissatisfaction with the job. 

Inasmuch as these million workers probably belonged almost en- 
tirely to the employee group considered in this chapter as constituting 
labor supply (instead of the entire census class "gainful persons"). It 
is estimated that at any time approximately 2^4 percent of the total 
labor supply is not available for work. 



FIGURE I 

ESTIMATES O SUPPIY Cf LABOR F(DR HIRE. EMPlOrEO AND UNEMin.OTED.i920- 1935 

(TOTAL Suf'H.T TO" l»«.IOO) 



INOC> NUWKU 



INCO Mjwa»s 




justed averages considerably overstate the amount of 
labor-time used in production. It was essential, there- 
fore, to reduce the number employed to '"full-time 
equivalents" in order to arrive at the number of man- 
years of work that were actually employed. 

Table 2. — Estimates of the supply of labor for hire, employed 
and unemployed, 1920-35 



Year 



(1) 



1920.. 
1921.. 
1922.. 
1923.. 

1924.. 
1925.. 
1926.. 
1927.. 

1928.. 
1929.. 
1930.. 
1931.. 



Total 
supply 
of labor 
for hire ' 
(1920= 
100) 



(2) 



100.0 

102.2 
104.8 
107.4 

110.0 
112.4 
114.8 
117.1 



Unusable 

man- 
years, as 
percent 
of total 
supply 
in 1920 ' 



(3) 



.Available man-years 



Employed 



Unemployed 



Total 

as percent 

of total 

supply 

in 1920 > 



(4) 



Index ■ 

(1920= 

100) 



(5) 



1932.. 
1933.. 
1934.. 
1935.. 



121. 1 


122.8 


124.2 


125.1 


126.7 


128.5 


130.2 



2.5 


9S 


2.6 


100 


2.6 


102 


2.7 


105 


2.8 


107 


2.8 


110 


2.9 


112 


2.9 


114 


3.0 


116 


3.0 


118 


3.1 


120 


3.1 


121 


3.1 


122 


3.2 


124 


3.2 


125 


3.3 


127 



100 
81 
87 

102 

101 
104 
108 
110 

111 
116 
106 
90 

73 
72 



.\s per- 
cent of 
total 
supply 
in 1920S 



(6) 



93 



99 
101 



102 
107 



82 



As per- 
cent of 
total 
supply 
in 1920 • 



(T) 



.\s per- 
cent of 

available 
supply 

each year' 



(8) 



6 
25 
22 
11 

13 
13 
II 

12 

13 

10 
19 
32 

45 
47 
42 
41 



1 Excludes enterprisers, seU-employed, and unpaid labor on farms. 

' .allowance of 2.5 percent of the total labor supply for sickness and similar lost time. 

' Column (2) less column (3) 

• Estimated full-time man-year equivalents of the average annual number of wage 
and salaried workers employed. The adjustments for part-time unemployment 
were based on d.ita from 11 studies made in various cities. 

' Obtained by multiplying column (5) by the percentage foiud for 1920 (91.9). 

• Column (4) less column (6). 

' Column (7) divided by column (4). 

Note. — All figures except columns (2) and (3) have been roimded off after compu- 
tation. 



Technological Trends 



71 



While the concept '"man-hour' of work is definitely 
circumscribed in the sense that, every hour consists of 
GO minutes, the concepts "man-week" and "man-yeai-" 
are ever changing because over a period of j'ears the 
standard work week may vary in the number of man- 
da\-s it contains and the man-days in turn may vary 
in their man-hours content. It is known, for instance, 
that during the last few decades the man-hours con- 
tent of a standard man-year has declined considerably. 
When the standard work week consisted of 6 days of 

10 hours each, the man-year, allowing for 12 holidays, 
consisted of 3,000 man-hours; during more recent 
years the standard work-week in many industries has 
been limited to o^A days of 8 hours each or, allowing 
for holidays, to a little over 2,000 man-hours. For the 
purpose of measuring changing volume of output in 
relation to the time actually worked, it would there- 
fore be necessary to measure employment in terms of 
man-hours of work, but from the standpoint of the 
mimber of jobs, the 3,000-hour man-year represents 
one full-time job for 1 year in the same sense in which 
the 2,000-hour man-year represents one full-time job 
for another year. Thus, a worker employed 44 hours 
a week when the standard week consisted of 60 hours 
would be regarded as a part-time employee, while the 
same employee woi'king the same hours during a period 
when 44 hours constituted a standard work-week would 
be regarded as fully employed. For the purpose at 
hand it was therefore considered appropriate to use 
each year's pi-evailing-hours content as representing a 
man-year of work and to make the part-time adjust- 
ments with this flexible man-year concept in mind. 

If the term "fragmentary" is accepted as descriptive 
of the available employment statistics, some adjective 
connoting infinitesimally small particles would have to 
be used to describe the availability of data on part- 
time employment. However, utilizing the results of 

11 studies from which it was possible to obtain the 
amount of time lost by part-thne workers, adjustments 
were made in the estimates of the average number of 
workers employed each year." The resulting index of 
employment measured in full-time man-years is shown 
in cohunn (5) of table 2. 

Regarding the annual estimates of the available 
labor supply as representing man-years available for 
employment and deducting from them the man-years 
of labor actually employed, the balance may be re- 
ferred to as "unemployed man-years."^- (See col- 
umns (7) and (8), table 2.) 



The disparity between the amount of labor avail- 
able and the amount used for production is evident 
from the figures in table 2. Although employment (in 
man-years) increased 16 percent from 1920 to 1929, the 
total labor supply increased 21 percent during the same 
l^eriod. Unemployment — excluding the unusable man 
power— during the highly prosperous twenties fell to 
as low as 10 percent of the available manpower during 
only a single year. The expansion in output and em- 
ployment during this period did not suffice to bring 
unemployment down to its 1920 level, although it did 
etfect a substantial reduction from the 1921 figure of 
25 percent unemployed. 

The sharp drop in production subsequent to 1929 
and the continued growth of the labor supply resulted 
in an increase in the unemployed man-power to almost 
a third of the total available in 1931, and to 47 percent 
in 1933. With increasing production, the volume of 
unemployment has since declined gradually to two- 
fifths of the total available man-power in 1935 — still, 
however, nearly nine times the volume of unemploy- 
ment in 1920." 

Two important points emerge from the data pre- 
sented in tables 1 and 2. On the one hand, by 1935 
the disparity between the movement of production and 
employment had reached a point where the former 
stood at 114 percent of 1920 while the latter was at 
only 82 percent of the same year. On the other hand, 
it is clear that if the ratio of output to emploj-ment 
had not increased substantially the level of production 
of 1929 could not have been attained, since the avail- 
able labor supply increased only 21 percent between 
1920 and 1929 while output expanded 46 percent. In 
the following section some of the characteristics of 
the changing ratio of output per man-year will be 
discussed in relation to changes in total production 
and em23loyment. 

Productivity and Employment Opportunities 

It was pointed out previously that, while tlie volume 
of total employment in 1935 was still 18 percent below 
the 1920 level, the volume of goods and services pro- 
duced in 1935 was 14 percent higher than in 1920. 
Another way of stating the same thing would be to 
say that, while production in 1935 was 14 percent above 
1920, the "productivity" of hired workers was 39 
percent higher or the "unit labor recjuirement" was 



" The 11 studies were made In Columbus. Buffalo. Syracuse, and 
Louisville at different times during the lO-year period under considera- 
tion. 

" Since available labor supply and employment are given in terms of 
full-time equivalents, the unemployed manpower also represents full- 
time man-years, that is. 10 men employed half time are represented in 
these estimates as 5 man-years employed full time and 5 unemployed. 



^^ It sho\ild be kept in mind that the peroentaces of unemployed man- 
power, as given in this chapter, include part-time unemployment and 
are computed on a base which includes only wage and salaried workers. 
These percentages are therefore considerably higher than similar ratios 
which do not count part-time unemployment and are computed on the 
numerically larger base of total "gainful persons" which include enter- 
prisers, self-employed persons, and unpaid family labor on farms. 



72 



National Resources Committee 



28 percent lower." If we bring together tlie over-all 
production data given in table 1 and the over-all 
employment data given in table 2 we can obtain ratios 
similarly for each of the years from 1920 to 1935. 
Tliese ratios are presented in table 3 antl in figure 2. 

Over-all Productivity 

An examination of table 3 will show that while 146 
units of tlie Nation's output were being produced in 
1929 for every 100 units in 1920. only IC percent more 
man-years of work were employed in 1929. This dis- 
parity between the increases in production and em- 
ploj-ment is of course reflected in the productivity 
figures, wliich indicate that the major spurt took place 
during the depression of 1921 and the recovery of 
1922. It should also be noted that, while another sub- 
stantial increase in in'oductivity took place after 1930, 
during the period from 1922 to 1929 the productivity 
figures show only a slight upward tendency in spite 
of tiie fact that such other information as is available 
points to substantial and continuous increases in pro- 
ductivity in practically every field of economic activ- 
ity. These fluctuations raise a number of questions 
with reference both to the underlying statistical mate- 
rial and to the varied movements which are concealed 
by the over-all figures and the averages derived from 
them. 

First of all, it sliould be made very clear that tlie 
figures presented here do not measure tlie changing 
efficiency of labor in the sense that this is done in 
time-and-motion studies of operations and processes 
in the manufacture of a given product. Nor do the 
ratios measure the relationship between the total na- 
tional output and the labor time of everyone en- 
gaged in producing it, since the employment index is 
restricted to wage and salaried workers. Between 
these two extremes lie any number of meaningful 
ratios wliicii might be constructed to show the chang- 
ing relationsliip between the output of a plant, an 
industry, or a group of industries and all or any part 
of the labor force engaged in its production. The 
ratios presented here have been constructed to show 
the changing relationship between the volume of 
employment and the Nation's output, so that the unit- 
labor-requirement ratio indicates changes in man- 
years employed per unit of total output. The move- 
ment of tliis ratio is affected not only by changes in 
the character of the total output and in the industrial 
methods used in production, as described in succeed- 
ing pages, but also by the fact that a growing propor- 



FIGURE 2 

PRODUCTION. MAN-YEARS Of EMPtOCMEMT. AND EMPlOi-EE MAN-YEARS PER UNtT Of TOIAL 
^ ^ PfiCOUCDCN IN THE UNITED STATES. 1920-1935 „. 















esOOuCTON" 
































1 . 


' 






N, 














U.U 






/ 


'^ 


IMftOf 


IWtt) 


— - 


-- 


-^ 


N 


\ 






^ 


^ 










,i- 






^ 


^yA 
















^ 


y 




















Bi'^'SKSic'feff/ 








-c 


::=- 


=^ 


- 












































































„ 


- ""i 


=r.3 





\ . 


--:.-r: 


r"i.- 


!*«. 























iVM iwi ma >«£> ni* ma f^t mi m* i«2s km *%» tui 

tion of the Nation's work is performed by hired work- 
ers.. The mo\ement of this ratio therefore indicates 
the changes — whatever the causes — in employment 
opportunities per luiit of output. 

When we add the total of nonemployees (employers, 
self-employed, and unpaid family workers on farms) 
to the man-years employed each year, the resulting 
employment index rises more slowly from 1920 to 
1929 than the index which excludes nonemployees, due 

Table 3. — Indexes of production, employment, productivity, 
and unit labor requirement, 1920-35 





[1920= 


= 100] 






Year 


Production' 


Man-years 

of employ. 

ment > 


Productivity: 
Production 

per employee 
man-year ' 


Unit labor 
reqtiirement: 
Employee 
man-years 
per unit of 
production * 


(1) 


(2) 


(3) 


(4) 


(5) 


1920 


lOO 
90 
110 
122 

125 
132 
133 
135 

142 
146 
125 
IDS 

88 
97 
106 
114 


100 
81 
87 

102 

101 
104 
108 
110 

111 
116 
106 
90 

73 
72 
79 

82 


100 
111 
126 
120 

123 
127 
124 
123 

129 
128 
118 
120 

120 
134 
134 
139 


lOO 


1921 


90 


1922 


79 


1923 


84 


1924.. 


81 


1925 


79 


1928 


81 


1927 


81 


1928 


78 


1929 


79 


1930 


85 


1931 




1932 


83 


1933 


74 


1934 


74 


1935' 


72 







"The term "productivity" as used tliroughout tills cliapter, unless 
otherwise indicated, means the ratio: (ofoi output per employee man- 
year, and inversely, "unit labor requirement" means the ratio : em- 
ployee man-years per unit of total outpnt. The difrerencp between 
these latios and some other meaningful ratios of "productivity" is 
explained later. 



' Same as column (4), table 1. 
1 Same as column (5), table 2. 

• Column (2) divided by column (3). .\lthough the production series includes the 
output of the entire economy, the employment index excludes enterprisers, unpaid 
family workers on farms, and the self-employed. The productivity index therefore 
represents the ratio of total output to the man-yenrs of only wage and salaried workers, 
1. e., of those subject to unemployment. See footnote 14. 

' Column (3) divided by column (2). See note 3 above. 

* Preliminary. 

Note.— .\11 figures were rounded after computations were made. 



Technological Trends 



73 



to the long-term decline in the proportion of these 
nonemployee groups in tlie total. Nor does the index 
which includes nouemployees decline nearly so much 
during the depression periods because the nonem- 
l)ioyees are not subject to "unemployment" in any- 
where near the same degree as iiired workers. As is 
to be expected, the index of output per man-year wlieu 
the nonemployces are included is lower in depressions 
and higher in periods of activity than (he index based 
on employees alone. (The differences are shown in 
figs. 3a and 3b.) Since this cluipter is concerned pri- 
marily with the employment opportunities of work- 
ers, the pages whicli follow will discuss only the ratios 
based on employee man-years. 

Wliile the underlying statistical material has al- 
ready been sufficiently qualified, attention is again 
directed to tlie fact that the roughness of the raw ma- 
terial is, perhaps as much as any other factor, respon- 
sible for some of the year-to-year changes in the 
productivity figures. This may in part explain the 
declines in pi'oductivity shown in some years, although 

FIGURE 3A 

TOTAL PRODUCTION AND EMPLOYMENT IN THE 
UNITED STATES. i92o-i933 




1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 192^ 1926 1927 1926 1929 »30 1931 1932 1933 1934 <93& 1936 



FIGURE 38 

TOTAL PRODUCTION AND PRODUCTIVITY IN THE 
UNITED STATES, 1920-I93S 





















PROOUCTON 


























• 


^l-^'r' 








,~.J 




t— -i^-'^-C^. \ 




OnOTUl) 1 








/~ 


>(-i 








>.^\ 




i •■' 










^' 


''y 


)V 
















'^ 


^^ 


/' 




^ 






-^ 


^ 






















\^ 


y 






















































































































.V. " 


SH 


"-.■.T 


'.ni'»" 


™;'-. 


•~ii 


".„ 


'•Mil) 





















it is by no means improl)able that these figures reflect 
the effect of such other factors as declines in the annual 
level of utilized capacity or the employment of less 
efficient labor during i^eaks of production. The re- 
duced man-liour content of the full-time man-year 
should also be taken into consideration, especially in 
the interpretation of the productivity data for the 
period after 1929, inasnuicli as it serves to conceal the 
extent of the increase in man-hour productivity which 
occurred during the latter years. 

More important, however, is the fact that both the 
year-to-year fluctuations and the pi'oductivity plateau 
during the period from 1922 to 1929 also reflect the 
changing relative importance of the several fields of 
industrial activity and the different absolute levels of 
productivity characteristic of them. This point will 
perhaps be made clearer by a more detailed discussion 
of the character of the type of composite ratio shown 
in table 3. Let us assume that two plants produced 
tlie same product. Plant A, highly mechanized, main- 
tained a level of productivity approximately twice as 
high as that of jjlant B. Let us now assume that each 
plant increased both its production and productivity, 
but that the relative increases in the two plants were 
those siiven in the table below : 



Plant 


Year 


Percentago 


First 


Second 


change 


Plant A: 


2,000 
1,000 


2,100 
1,000 


+5.0 













2.00 


2.10 


+5.0 






riant B: 


2,000 
2,000 


3,100 
3,000 


+65.0 




+60.0 








1.00 


1.03 


f3.0 






Total, both plants: 


4.000 
3,000 


6,200 
4,000 


+ 30.0 




+33. 3 








1.33 


1.30 


-2.3 







1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 I92S 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1936 1936 



It will be noted that in spite of productivity in- 
ci-eases in both plants, the over-all productivity de- 
clined. In one sense this decline in productivity is 
real inasmuch as in the second year a larger jjroportion 
of the total product was produced at a lower level 
of productivity than in the first year. In another 
sense, however, the decline in the average is mislead- 
ing inasmuch as it fails to indicate that productivity 
increased in both plants — perhaps as a result of im- 
provements in production techniques. 

This highly simplified hypothetical example — which 
might have been constructed to show the opposite re- 



74 



National Resources Committee 



suit — illustrates the type of cliaiifre which actually 
takes place continuously in a competitive economy. 
Here not only the relative importance of different 
plants in the same industry changes, but the relative 
importance of entire industries shifts materially over 
relatively short periods of time. These shifts are fre- 
quently due, in large measure, to changes in indus- 
trial techniques, the discovery of new ways of doing 
old things, the invention of new machines, the devel- 
opment of new products, the growth of new indus- 
tries, and the rise of services which were formerly 
performed cither in the home or not at all. Because 
of these manifold reasons, any study of the effects of 
changing productivity on the volume of employment 
must attempt to get behind over-all figures and study 
the changes in the component industries. 

Trends in Basic and Service Industries 

The increase of IG percent in total employment from 
1920 to 1929 was the result of an increase of only 3 
percent in the "basic" industries — agriculture, mining, 
manufacture, construction, transportation, communi- 

FIGURE 4A 

COMPOSITION a TCTAL MANYEARS Of EMPLOYMENT, i92o-i933 




1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1926 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 



FIGURE 48 

COMPOSITION OF EMPLOYEE MAN-YEARS PER lOO UNffS 



a TOTAL PROaJCTDN.i920-i935 




cation, and public utilities — and of nearly 50 percent 
in the ".service" industries — trade, professional service, 
public service, and personal and domestic service. 
A^Hiile employment in the service industries after 1929 
never fell to the 11>20 level, even during the low point 
of the depression, and stood 13 percent higher in 1935 
than in 1920, the level of man-year emi)loyment in the 
basic industries was, even in 193r), still 32 percent be- 
low 1920. (See table 4.) 

The effect of this divergence in the trend of em- 
jjloymcnt in the basic and in the service industries 
on the pi'oportion each gi'oup comprised of the total 
eiuployinent is indicated in table 5 and figure 4a. The 
proportion of total man-years of employment repre- 
sented by service activities increased continuously ex- 
cept in the j'ears of recovery innnediately after a de- 
l)ression low : 1922-23 and 1933-35. From 30 percent 
of the total in 1920, service employment rose to 38 
percent in 1929; by 1932. because of the more rapid 
decline in basic employment, the proportion employed 
in the service industries had reached the high point 
of 44 percent, after which, with the growth of re- 
employment in the basic industries, it receded to 42 
percent in 1935. It remains to be seen whether the 
past long-term expansion of the service activities will 
again be resumed or whether the proportions which 
obtained during the late 1920's represent the saturation 
))oint in the proportion of service employment. 

Table 4. — Indexes of man-ticar.s of cmploi/ment in basic and in 
service industries. 1920-33 

[1920=1001 



Year 


Total man - 
years otem- 
ploymeot > 


Man-years of 
employment 
in Dasic in- 
dustries • 


Man-years of 
employment 
in service in- 
dustries ' 


(1) 


(2) 


(3) 


(4) 


1920 


100 
81 
87 
102 
101 
104 
108 

no 

111 
116 
106 
90 
73 
72 
79 
82 


100 
77 
83 
99 
96 
97 

100 

100 
99 

103 
91 
74 
59 
60 
65 
88 


100 


1921 


91 


1922 


96 


1923 


109 


1924 


114 


1925 


122 


1926 


126 


1927 .— .-......- 


133 


1928 


138 


1929 


146 


1930 


141 


1931 


125 


1932 


106 


1933 


lOO 


1934 


111 


1935 


113 







1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 t92& 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 193% 



1 Same as columa (5). table 2. See footnotes to table 2. 

) The basic industries include agriculture, forestry and 6sbing, mining, manufac- 
turing, construction, transportation, communication, and electric light and power. 
All other activities, such as recreation, trade, professional service, personal service, 
and public service are included under "service." All employees of the respective 
industries are included in each category. Thus, a bookkeeper or an engineer em- 
ployed by a manufacturing concern would be included in the "basic" industries, 
while a stenographer or porter employed in a physician's office would be in the 
"service" industries. In agriculture only hired labor is included. 



Technological Trends 



75 



The extent of the decline in the relative importance 
of basic industry emplovinent in the production of 
the total income of the country is shown in table 6 
and figure 4b. which present the changing composition 
of the hired-labor requirements per unit of the total 
output. From table G it appears that of each 100 
man-years of labor engaged in the production of 100 
units of the total output in 1920, 70 man-years were 
expended in basic industries and 30 in service, whereas 
of tiie 79 man-years of work i)er 100 units of the total 
output in 1929, only 49 were employed in basic and 
30 in service activities. By 1935 the total hired labor 
requirements per 100 units of the total output dropped 
to 72 man-years, of which 42 were expended on basic 
and 30 on service activities. 

Table 5. — Composition of total mayi-ycars of cmitloiiment, 
1920-33 



Tahi.k 0. — Employee man-years per unit of total output, 1920-33 

11920= 100] 



Year 


Total em- 
ployment 


Percent of total em- 
ployed in- 


Basic in- 
dustries 


Service in- 
duslries 


CI) 


(2) 


(3) 


(4) 


1920 - 


100 
100 
100 
100 
100 
100 
100 
100 
100 
100 
100 
100 
100 
100 
100 
100 


70 
66 
67 
68 
66 
65 
65 
64 
63 
62 
60 
58 
56 
58 
58 
58 


30 


1921 


34 


1922 - - 


33 


1923 _ - 


32 




34 


1925 - - 


35 


1926 - - 


35 


1927 -.- 


36 


1928 - 


37 


1929 - 


3S 


1930 --- 


40 


1931 - - 


42 


1932 - 


44 


1933 


42 


1934 - 


42 


1935 


42 







Note. — See table 4 for the indexes of each group. 

These figures should not be interpreted to mean that 
the increase in over-all i)roductivity was the net result 
of rising productivity in basic industries and stable 
or declining productivity in service industries, and 
that the productivity "plateau" from 1922 to 1929 is 
thei'efore the result of increases in productivity in 
basic industries, offset by productivity declines in 
service. The fact is that, even if similar relative in- 
creases in productivity had occurred in both fields, a 
leveling off of the index of labor required per unit of 
output would have taken place if, during the same 
period, service activities had accounted for a rapidly 
growing proportion of the total output. In the light 
of the available data it is not at all improbable that 
this situation actually obtained during the years from 
1922 to 1929. 





Total em- 
ployee 
man-years 
per unit of 
output 1 


Composition of total' 


Year 


Employoo 

man-years 

in basic 

industries 


Employee 
man-years 
in service 
industries 


(1) 


(2) 


(3) 


(4) 


1920 .. 


100 
911 
79 
84 
81 
79 
81 
81 
78 
79 
85 
83 
83 
74 
74 
72 


70 
59 
53 
57 
54 
61 
62 
52 
49 
49 
51 
48 
47 
43 
43 
42 


30 


1921 


31 


1922 


26 


1923 


27 


1924 


27 


1925 


28 


1926 ■ 


29 


1927 


30 


1928 


29 


1929 


3D 


1930 


34 


1931 


35 


1932 


36 


1933. 


31 


1934 - - 


32 


1935" 


30 







I Same as table 3. column (5). 

' Obtained by applying to column (2) the changing percentage distribution for each 
year shown in table 5. 
'Preliminary. 

Note.— All figures were rounded after computations were made. 

The sharp reduction in the volume of labor per unit 
of output which occurred between 1920 and 1922 may 
be attributed in large part to the fact that rapidly 
increasing productivity in the basic industries as a 
whole was not yet being offset by the expansion of 
service activities. As indicated in table 4, the tre- 
mendous growth of service employment did not begin 
until 1923, resulting in the productivity "plateau" of 
the twenties. 

In connection with the 1930 increase in labor em- 
ployed per unit of output, it should be noted that 
man-years of employment in the service industries 
held up very well in that year, but when service em- 
ployment started to fall it continued to do so for a 
year longer than did basic employment, which by 
1933 had begun to turn upward. In this year, when 
.service employment was still falling, total labor em- 
l^loyed per unit of output registered a decline of over 
10 percent. A large part of the inci'ease in produc- 
tivity after 1932 may be attributable to the improve- 
ments which Professor Clark has indicated "stand 
ready for introduction when confidence revives suffi- 
ciently and when the condition of the capital mai-ket 
makes it possible to raise the necessai'y funds." 

Employment Trends 
In Basic Industries 

In tlie same way in which light was thrown on the 
movements of over-all productivity by a breakdown 
of the total into two major groups, further clarifica- 



76 

tion may be obtained by a more detailed examination 
of one of these groups— the basic industries. Employ- 
ment in the basic industries as a whole did not expand 
very much from 1920 to 1929; in fact, employment 
exceeded the 1920 level only during the years 1926 to 
1929. This stability of employment with rcsjiect to the 
group as a whole did not, however, characterize the 
movements of the component industries. Some were 
shrinking in employment while maintaining produc- 
tion, some exjierienced declines in both employment 
and production, while others were increasing both em- 
ployment ami production at a rapid pace. 

Only two groups of the basic industries shown in 
table 7 were expanding in employment from 1920 to 
1929 — construction and conununication and transpor- 
tation (other than steam railroads). Agriculture and 
forestry and fishing maintained their proportion, to- 
gether comprising 13 percent of total employment both 
in 1920 and in 1929. Mineral extraction declined from 
6 to 5 percent of the total, steam railroads from 10 to 
8 percent, and manufacturing from 51 to 49 percent. 

The general depression after 1929 affected the sev- 
eral groups variously. Construction suffered the most 
marked decline, falling from 11 to 6 percent of the 
shrinking total. Steam railroads continued to lose in 
relative importance, dropping from 8 to 7 percent. 
The other groups increased their proportion of the 
total by resisting the general decline more effectively 
than these two industries. 

Just as employment in the service industries has 
become an increasing jiroportion of the total, so, within 
each of the basic industries, the ''service" occupations 
have increased their proportion of total employment. 
This tendency is illustrated by the following data for 
the State of Ohio:" 



National Resources Committee 



Industry and occupation groups 


Percent of total employees in each group 


1916 


1920 


1925 


1929 


Alanufacturing ., 


100.0 


100.0 


100.0 


100.0 








92.1 

7.2 

.7 


90.1 

9.2 

.7 


89.6 
9.4 
1.0 


89.0 


00ic6 workers.. 


9.8 




1.2 






Transportation and public utilities 


100.0 


100.0 


100 


lOO.O 


Wage earners . . .. 


89.9 

9.8 

3 


87.3 

12.3 

.4 


85.5 

13.8 

.7 


81.4 




17.4 


Salespeople . 


L2 






Construction 


100.0 


100.0 


100. 


100.0 


Wage earners 


0) 

(') 


93.9 

5.2 

.9 


93.4 
5.3 
1.3 


92.4 


Office worlEers __ 


6.2 


Salespeople 


1.4 







' Not available. 

Data for individual manufacturing industries in 
Ohio and in the United States as a whole reveal a 
similar and in many cases a more marked trend. 

Productivity Changes 

In Selected Basic Industries 

Very real and substantial increases in productivity 
took place in most of the industries whose output and 
emi)loyment go to make up the totals referred to in the 
preceding pages. With few exceptions, individual 
industries were able in one way or another to reduce 
the labor required per unit of output. While employ- 
ment increased in most of these industries during the 
1920's, although less rapidly than output, stmie indus- 
tries were actually able to reduce the number of em- 
ployees in the face of expanding production.'* 



" Computed from data in Average Annual Wage and Salary Payments 
in Ohio, 1916 to 1932 (U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Bull. No. 613), 
pp. 24, 39, 176. 



'"Tho National Research Project of the Works Procros.f Ad.iiinistra- 
tion Is conducting a number of surveys of changes in production, em- 
ployment, and productivity in various industries. Those surveys are 
being made In cooperation with other agencies, both public and pri- 
vate : Bureau of Labor Statistics. Bureau of Mines, Railroad Retire- 
ment Board, Dopartment of .\grlculture, National Bureau of Economic 
Kosearcb, and others. 



Table 7. — Distribution of employment in the basic industries, 1920-35^ 



Basic Industries 



Inde:[ of employment " (1920=100) 

Composition of total ' _-- 

Agriculture' 

Forestry and fishing - 

Extraction of minerals.. 

Manufacturing * — 

Construction 

Steam railroads 

Other transportation and communication ■ 

Industry not specified '. 



100.0 

lOO.O 

12.0 

1.1 

6.0 

51.0 

8.5 

10.2 

6.3 

4.9 



82.0 
100.0 

14.6 
1.3 
7.1 

46.6 
9.0 
9.7 
7.1 
4.6 



88.8 
100.0 

13.6 
1.2 
6.9 

47.7 
9.7 
9.8 
6.7 
4.4 



1923 



100.0 
100.0 
12.1 



48.8 
10. 1 



6.9 
4.5 



1924 



97.9 
100.0 

12.5 
1.1 
6.3 

47.7 

10.8 
9.5 
7.6 
4.5 



1926 



101. 5 

100.0 

12.2 

1.0 

5.9 

47.1 

11.3 

9.4 

8.7 

4.4 



101.8 

100.0 

12.2 

1.0 

5.9 

47.0 

11.7 

9.1 

8.7 

4.4 



101.2 

100.0 

12.3 

1.0 

5.5 

47.5 

11.8 

8.7 

9.0 

4.2 



104.4 

100.0 

12.0 

1.0 

5.3 

48 9 

11.0 

8.4 

9.0 

4.4 



94.4 
100.0 

13.3 
1.0 
4.9 

47.1 

11.1 
8.6 
9.4 
4.6 



81.2 
100.0 

14.9 
1.0 
4.8 

46.6 
9.6 
8,4 
9.5 
5.2 



1932 



69.1 
100.0 

15.9 

.9 

4.5 

49.1 
7.1 
8.1 
9.4 
5.0 



1934 



74.7 
100.0 

13.1 
1.0 
4,7 

53.2 
6.1 
7.4 
9.4 
5.1 



77.4 

loao 

13.2 
1.0 
4.5 

63.7 
6.0 
7.0 
9.2 
5.4 



' See text relating to table 2 for sources of estimates. 

' Not adjusted for part-time emplo>Tnent. Both wage and salaried workers are included. 

' Hired farm workers only. 

* Includes electric light and power; excludes steam railroad repair shops and automobile repair shops. 

■ Includes garages, automobile repair shops, air transportation, express companies, livery stables, pipe lines, radio broadcasting, street railways, telephone and telegraph com- 
munication, truck, transfer, and cab companies, and water transportation. 

* Includes nearly a million workers estimated as employed in various basic industries. 



Technological 7'rends 

The nature of the fluctuations in production, em- 
ployment, and unit hd)or requirements in several 
industrial fields for which data are at hand is shown 
in table 8. 

Man-hour requirements per unit of output in manu- 
facturing industries as a whole were cut nearlj' in half 
between 1920 and 1934. Except for minor set-backs 
in 1923, 1929, 1933, and 1934, man-hours required per 
100 units of output declined steadily from 100 in 1920 
to 5G in 1934. Tlie rise of 40 ]>ercent in output up to 
1929 took place with no additional num-hours; in fact, 
there was a drop of nearly 2 percent. 

In view of the progressive reduction in the labor 
reqiarements per unit of output in the extractive in- 
dustries, the number of man-days worked dropped 
nearly 20 percent between 1920 and 1929, although out- 
I)ut increased about 6 percent. The decline in out- 
put per man-day which occurred during 1933 and 1934 
is attributable j)rimarily to the decrease in the length 
of the working day and not to declines in technical 
cflic'iency. In general it should be kept in mind that 
many technological improvements in the extractive 
industries do not result in increased productivity but 
serve merely to offset the increased difficulties of 
operation growing out of the depletion of deposits. 



1 1 



The increased efficiency of railroad operation, com- 
bined with a relatively stable volume of traffic from 
1920 to 1929, resulted in a drop in total man-hours 
worked of more than 20 percent during the period. 
From 1929 to 1934 man-hours declined almost 50 per- 
cent more while traffic fell off 40 percent, so that by 
1934 the man-hours requirement per unit of output 
was only 74 pei'cent of the 1920 level. ^' 

Using a composite index of the number of local and 
toll telephone conversations, it is found that the out- 
put in the telephone industry rose from 100 in 1920 
to 185 in 1929, while enii)loyment increased only 68 
percent. The decline in the volume of business after 
1929 was accompanied by an even sharper di-op in em- 
ployment, so tliat output per employee increased al- 
most as much from 1929 to 1934 as it had in the pre- 
ceding 10 years. One of the significant technological 
factors in reducing the labor requirements per unit 
was the increasing utilization of the automatic dial 
system. After 1929, however, a number of factors 
contributed to raising the ratio of output to employ- 



■' A great deiil in the way of data essential for analysis of the 
changing output per man-hour in railroads has been compiled by the 
Bureau of Labor Statistics ; see Witt Bowden. "Productivity, Hours, 
and Compensation of Railroad Labor," Monthly Labor Review (U. S. 
Dept. qf Labor), December 1933, January and February 1934. 



Tabi.e 8. — Indexes of ovlpiil, cinploymeni, atid laiit labor requirement in 4 industries, 1920-34 

[1920=100] 



Manufactiu'ing: 

Output'.- 

Man-hours ^ 

Unit labor requirement ' 
Mining: 

Output' - 

Man-days * — .,. 

Unit labor requirement " 
Steam railroads; 

Output' 

Man-hours * 

Unit labor requirement ' 
Telephone communication: 

Output' 

Employment " 

Unit labor requirement " 



100.0 
100.0 
100. 

100.0 
100.0 
100.0 

100.0 
100.0 
100.0 

100.0 
100.0 
100.0 



78.3 
71.7 
91.6 

75.7 
72.8 



7.5.9 
76.1 
100.3 

107.2 
103.3 
96.4 



1922 



98.1 
85.1 
80.7 

76.3 
70.2 
92.0 

81. 1 
79.2 
97.7 

118.6 
105.9 
89.3 



111.3 
98.2 
88.2 

105.5 
94.1 
89. 2 

96.1 
90.5 
94.2 

128.0 
116.7 
91.2 



105.0 
86.7 
82.1 

95.8 
87.2 
91.0 

90.7 
83.3 
91.8 

135.0 
125.0 
92.6 



116.! 
91.! 
78.1 

96.1 
8.').! 



95. 
83. 
87. 

143. 
130. 
90. 



122. 
93. 

76. 

108. 
94. 
87. 

100. 
85. 
85. 

153.: 
134. ( 
87.1 



122. 
90. 
74. 

101. 
86. 
85. 



161. 
138. 



1928 



132. 
91. 



81. 
81. 

96. 
79. 
81. 

171.; 
145.1 
85. 



1929 



140.6 
98.1 
69.8 

105.5 
82.8 
78.5 

99.2 
79.8 
80.4 

185.0 
158,3 
85.6 



1930 



118.1 

77.: 

65.1 

91.' 
70. ■ 
76.1 



181. 
160. 
85. 



101.9 
60.1 
59.0 



63.9 
74.3 

68.7 
55.8 
81.2 

174.5 
140.3 
80.4 



78.3 
43.0 
54.9 

54.0 
40.4 
74.8 

52.1 
43.7 
83.9 

156. 3 
127.2 
81.4 



1933 



87.8 
48.3 
55.0 

57.5 
44.8 
77.9 

,54.7 
41.0 
75.0 

145.4 
116.7 
80.3 



94.4 
52.5 
65.6 

65.4 
52.8 
80.7 

59.2 
44.0 
74.3 

150.0 
112.8 
75.2 



' Physical volume ot production, based on Census of Manufactures data. From 
Simon Kuznets, Income Originating in Nine Basic Industries, 1919-34; National 
Bureau of Economic Research Bulletin 59, p. 24. Base sliitted to 1920. 

' Covers factory workers only. Constructed from Bureau of Labor Statistics index 
of factory employment and National Industrial Conference Board average hours 
worlted in manufacturing industries. 

3 Man-hours per unit of output. 

< Excludes petroleum, natural gas, sand, and gravel, since man-day data are not 
available for these industries. Constructed by the aggregative method, based on the 
1923-25 average unit value. From Bureau of Mines published and unpublished 
data. 

* Based on man-days worked in mines covering approximately 90 percent of the 
employment in their industries. Includes all major products except those mentioned 
in (<). Constructed by aggregating the man-days reported for each industry and 
dividing through by the 1920 total. From Bureau of Mines published and unpub- 
lished data. 

>• Man-days per unit of output. 



' Weighted average of freight-ton miles and passenger miles. From Kuznets, 
op. cit., p. 24. Base shifted to 1920. 

* Covers all class I railway employees, excluding terminal and switching com- 
panies. From annual reports of the Interstate Commerce Commission. 

" Weighted average of exchange and toll connections. From Kuznets, op. cit., 
p. 24. Base shifted to 1920. 

'° Based on the year-end employment of the Beli Telephone System, excluding 
Western Electric and Bell Laboratories, as reported in Moody's Manual of Invest- 
ments: Public Utility Secmities (192&'35). Annual employment was estimated by 
averaging the preceding and current year-end employment. Bell accounts for 
approximately 95 percent of the total telephone business. Index is biased upward 
slightly because of the growth of Bell System as compared with all telephone com- 
panies. » 

" Employees per unit of output. No data are available for making adjustments for 
changes in working hours, which were reduced after 1929. Such an adjustment 
would lower the unit labor requirements. Ehminationof bias indicated in (11) would 
have similar effect. 



78 



National Resources Committee 



ment witliout actually entailing an\' technological 
cliange. Among them are the decline in the amount 
of construction work, which reduced the number of 
employees without a corresponding effect on the meas- 
ure of output, and the reduction in the number of 
cni])loyees "in training"' for future expansion. ^^ 

Summary 

The divergency of the trends of employment in the 
several industrial groups discussed and the variations 
in the extent of their productivity changes make it 
clear that the over-all productivity ratios derived from 
the data on total national income and total employ- 
ment cannot be interpreted as measures of the extent 
of technological advance in individual industries any 
more tlian tlie per capita monetary national income 
figures can be used as measures of the incomes of 
individual groups in societ}-. If the total national 
income is regarded as a changing composite of goods 
and services, however, these over-all productivity fig- 
ures can be looked upon as measures of the changes 
in the relationship between total output and the size 
of the Nation's labor force employed in the creation 
of this composite or, inversely, as a measure of chang- 
ing employment o^jport unities per unit of total output. 
From this point of view there is definite meaning to 
the statement that the Nation's output increased 46 
percent from 19;iO to 192!) with a simultaneous increase 
of only 16 percent in the Nation's labor force. For 
it is this circumstance that represents part of the 
answer to the oft-repeated question: Wliy was there 
still a tremendous volume of unemployment in 193.) 
although most business indicators show that business 
was about as good during 1935 as it was during the 
prosperous years of 1923-25? 

Many people have become accustomed to thinking 
of the middle twenties as "normal" and so have come 
to imply a return to that normal as the desired goal. 
This attitude overlooks the fact that a country like 
the United States, with its continuously increasing 
population, must regard "nornuil'" as a process of ever- 
increasing levels of production, employment, and in- 
come. If labor productivity remained constant, the 
level of production would have to rise as fast as the 
labor sujjply in order to keep the volume of unemploy- 
ment from increasing. Given our progressive tech- 
nology and the fact that, with increasing productivity, 
a decline in production results in a more than propor- 
tional decline in employment and an increase in pro- 
duction results in a less than proportional increase in 



" The -Vmprican TelPphonp & Telegraph Co. estimates that spreading 
the work during the depression resulted In the retention of 40.000 em- 
ployees whose services would otherwise not have been used. Employee 
Information DuH. No. 12 (New York Telephone Co.), ,Iune 15, 1936. 



employment, we must contrive to increase the volume 
of production at a rate which is faster than the rate 
of increase of our labor supply or else we face the 
problem of an ever-increasing volume of unem- 
ployment. 

^Vhile the volume of production has from 1932 to 
1935 actually been increasing faster than the labor 
supply, the increase lias, in the light of the simul- 
laneously rising productivity, not been rapid enough 
to absorb more than a fraction of the total uiicinployed 
manpower. Although the physical volume of pro- 
duction in 1935 was approximately 30 percent higher 
than in 1932 and 14 percent higher than in 1920, a 
rough calculation indicates that a return to the 1929 
level of employment would, assuming the 1935 com- 
position of the national output and the 1935 rate of 
productivity, require an output of goods and services 
equal to 110 percent of the 1929 level, or more than 
140 percent of 1935. Using the same assumptions, a 
return to the 1929 level of imemployment by 1937 
would require an output equal to 120 percent of 1929, 
or nearly 55 percent greater than 1935. 

Of course neither technological progress in individ- 
ual industries nor the composition of the total national 
output will remain unchangetl. There is every reason 
to believe that productivity in individual industries 
will continue to rise as it has in the past and that the 
general product,ion level would therefore have to be 
liigher than indicated in order to attain the employ- 
ment or unemployment levels cited above. On the 
other hand, a further relative growth of service activi- 
ties would tend to have the opposite effect since, be- 
cause of the nature of these activities, they provide 
more employment per unit of the Nation s net i)roduct 
than the basic industries. In the event of such an 
expansion of service activities, it is not inconceivable 
that another productivity plateau similar to that of 
1922-29 should result, although on a much higher level. 

Although hedged about by many qualifications, these 
guesses still leave out of consideration many eventu- 
alities : Possible changes in the length of the full-time 
week and many factors which may affect the size of 
tlie labor supph', such as farm migratit)n, increased 
school attendance, child labor, and old-age pension 
legislation. Yet it. seems desirable to hazard these 
guesses in the interest of focusing attention on prob- 
lems which are likely to become increasingly important 
within the next few j-ears. 

"Technological Unemployment" 

The material presented in the preceding sections 
served to illustrate one phase of the two-fold charac- 
ter of the relationship between changes in productivity 
and in emjiloyment — the relationship between the vol- 



Technological Trends 



79 



lime of output, the volume of labor engaged in pro- 
ducing this output, and the size of the labor supply. 
The other phase concerns the extent to which em- 
jjloyees are displaced and occupational readjustment 
becomes necessary for reemployment. 

The preceding discussion contained a number of 
clues to the extent to which the diverging movements 
of employment and productivity in various industries 
must either have necessitated pi-ofound adjustments 
in occupational skills and social and professional sta- 
tus or else resulted in extended or permanent unem- 
ployment. In connection with this phase of the prob- 
lem there are several questions which one shovdd like 
to be able to answer in quantitative terms : How many 
workers are disjilaced, temporarily or permanently, by 
the inti'oduction of various technological improve- 
ments? What is the annual volume of the displace- 
ment and the absorption resulting from such improve- 
ments? What is the net effect, in terms of job op- 
portunities gained or lost, of changing industrial 
techniques? 

The succeeding pages will have served their purpose 
if they make clear some of the problems involved and 
give some inkling of the answers. 

Technological Change and Productivity 

Except in very rare cases, the effect of strictly tech- 
nical changes on employment in a single industry or 
even a single plant cannot be isolated. The ])i-oduc- 
tivity ratios presented in the preceding section can be 
regarded as indicative of the effects of technological 
change only in the broadest sense.^" These over-all 
productivity ratios (quantity output per unit of hired- 
labor time) reflect a variety of factors in addition to 
the mechanical improvements usually characterized as 
"technological." Thus productivity may change as a 
result of nonmechanical aids to labor, or managerial 
improvements, or in response to varying degrees of 
utilization of productive capacity, or changes in the 
hours of work, or any combination of these and other 
factors. On the other hand, technological improve- 
ments are frequently made without any resulting 
changes in the productivity ratio, although they may 
cause changes in the occupational requirements of the 
industry directly concerned or of a related industry. 

In general, it should be kept in mind that, quite 
apart from the possible direct displacement of work- 
ers as a result of the introduction of more efficient 
machines or better management, a technological im- 
provement or innovation may result in indirect dis- 
placement of workers in any or all of the following 
ways : 



{a) Diverting production from a compel lug ]>lant 
in the same industry. 

{h) Reducing the output of another indusiry by 
offering a cheaper or more effective substitute. 

{(■) Reducing the amount of raw material, fuel, or 
equipment used by eliminating waste and spoilage. 

{(l) Reducing the amount of labor recjuii-ed in the 
industries using a given product by improving its 
quality and efliciency. Improvements in tlie quality 
of steel used in machine tools make possible much 
higlier nuichine speeds and less frequent sharpening, 
thus reducing the amount of labor required in the 
industries using such tools. Similarly, improvements 
in the quality of steel rails reduces the requirements 
for maintenance, replacement, and repair labor on 
railroads. 

A technological change, however, uuiy also stimu- 
late employment in the same or other industries to 
such a degree as to offset its displacement effects by 
the absorption of an equivalent number, though not 
necessarily the same workers. As indicated in the 
following pages, there are no data available which 
would measure adequately the extent to which indi- 
vidual workers are affected by the displacement and 
al)sor])tion effects of technological inq)rovements. 

Industrial Displacement 

One attempt to throw some light on the problem of 
individual readjustment is represented by Dr. F. C. 
Mills' comparison of industrial accession and separa- 
tion rates in manufacturing industries during the 
period from 1899 to 1929.'-" Dr. Mdls' data relate to 
accessions and separations fi'om industries, not estab- 
lishments or occupations, and therefore understate the 
extent of the difficulties which workers face under 
modern industrial conditions, inasmuch as they throw 
light only on the more severe type of readjustment 
which requires the absorption of workers in industries 
other than those they left, voluntarily or otherwise. 
Furthermore, since the data refer to the net change in 
each industry between census intervals, they under- 
state by far the extent of the actual turn-over during 
the period. Dr. Mills found that during each 2-year 
period, on the average, between 1923 and 1929. 49 
men out of every thousand employees withdrew from 
or were forced out of the industry in which they 
were working, compared with 21 men out of every 
thousand during each 5-year interval from 1899 to 
1914. He linds it "an impressive fact that under the 
prosperous industrial conditions prevailing between 
1923 and 1929 one individual worker out of 20 was 
forced-, every 2 years, to seek employment in a new 



'* See preceding sertion on *'Over-aU productivity*' for further explana- 
tion of this ratio. 



■"Economic Tendencies in the United States (New Yorli : National 
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.. 1932), pp. 419-23. 



80 



National Resources Committee 



manufacturing inclusti\v, or in a nonmanufactur'.njj 
industry. These conditions placed lifrhter demands 
upon industry for the training of new men, but phicod 
much heavier demands upon waij;e earners, and en- 
foi'ced a degree of adaptability not required under 
pre-war conditions." The following data, indicating 
the increase in the separation rates for the major 
groups in the manufacturing industries, are presented 
by him as "most significant as regards the strain of 
readjustment placed on wage earners": 

Separations of wage earners, by industrial groups, JS09-1DI.', 
and mi^ ?.<) 



Industrial group (manufaciurinB) 



Foods 

Textiles 

Products or petroleum and cool.. 

Iron and steel 

Machinery 

Transportation 



Separations, as percent- 
age of average num- 
ber employed ' 



1923-29 




2, S 
4.8 
3.2 
4 
2.0 
11.5 



* Figures relate to average changes during census intervals. Such intervals were of 
5 years' duration during the period 1899-1914 and o( 2 years' duration during the 
period 1923-29. (Adapted from F. C. Mills, iVonoraic Temiencies in tht United Stales 
(Now York: Xational Hureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1932), table 167, p. 423.) 

Increasing I'loductivity and Displacement 

Utilizing data on production and employment, and 
calculating productivity changes, what might be done 
in the way of measuring displacement? Suppose that 
in 1 year 100 men were employed in a given industry 
to produce 100 units of output and that in the next 
year the use of labor-saving techniques made possible 
the manufacture of 110 units with only 90 men. 
Since employment declined by 10 men despite the in- 
crease in output, one might conclude that the techno- 
logical displacement amounted to 10 men. One might 
also point out that if the new techniques had not been 
used and production had increased 10 units, 110 men 
would have been employed instead of the i)0 actually 
at work. On tliat basis it is possible to state that the 
increased productivity affected 20 men — 10 who actu- 
ally lost jobs they had held the previous year and 10 
who would have been employed but for the increase 
in productivity. On the other hand, it is equally valid 
to maintain that if the improved techniques had been 
put into operation while production amounted to 100 
units only 82 men would have been required, indi- 
cating a displacement of 18 workers which, however, 
was offset in part by the actual increase in output 
requiring the services of 8 more men. 

Knowing only, as in the above example, the net 
change in the volume of output and employment, it 



is po.ssible to draw three different conclusions as to 
tiie displacement effect of improved efiiciency. The 
first cites only the net decline of 10 men as the dis- 
placement. The second presents the ditl'erence be- 
tween tlic number actually working the second year 
and tlie number who would have been employed if 
productivity had not clianged. The third suggests 
as the volume of disjjlacement the tlilference between 
the number actually employed the first year and the 
number who would have been employed if the in- 
creased productivity had not been accompanied by 
an increase in output. 

All three figures are useful in examining the net 
effect of the increased efiiciency on the number of 
available jobs in the indu.stry, but none of them can 
be said to describe the displacement effects of tech- 
nological iini>rovements so far as individual workers 
are concerned, and it is an individual who becomes 
unemployed. The net change in employment may 
very well have resulted fi-om (he dismissal of, say, oO 
workers whose skills were no longer required, and the 
hiring of 40 others. Only in rare instances would 
the com{>uted "displacement" figures depict accurately 
the number of individuals displaced from (he industry. 
Even if any one of the results of these computations 
were able to describe the effects of the improved effi- 
ciency on displacement in tliis industry, the picture 
would be far from complete. 

The increased ])roduction may have required the use 
of additional raw materials and transportation and 
distribution facilities, and may thus have resulted in 
additional employment in these activities, which, if 
added to the 90 men employed in (he nianufac(uring 
process may have resulted in a to(al employment of 
100 or 110, or even more. men. If the increased pro- 
duction was attributable to the introduction of im- 
proved production methods, it might have been re- 
s]i()nsil)le for a net increase in total employment. On 
(he other hand, the increased production may have 
resulted from (lie introduction of methods which also 
made ])ossible a more economical use of raw materials, 
and the machines may thus have reduced employment 
not only in the manufacturing process but in the 
industries supplying and transporting the raw mate- 
rials reipiired. 

To measure the full effect of even a single techno- 
logical change on displacement and absorption would 
therefore necessitate the virtually impossible task of 
tracing it through the innumerable factors which bear 
on the total volume of production and employment. 
Making direct inquiry among employers and workers 
would not be feasible either, since frequently neither 
the worker who loses his job nor the employer who 
lays him off knows whether the lay-off is the result of 



Technological Trends 



81 



technological improvenients or not. Assume, for ex- 
ample, two factories, A and B, located in different 
l^arts of the country and producing the same com- 
modity for sale on tlie national market. Factory A 
introduces labor-saving machinery which results in 
increased productivity and lower costs, making a le- 
duction in price possible. Factory B. wliich has not 
introduced the new machines and cannot meet the 
lower prices of A, fails to get its usual volume of 
orders and is forced to lay off part of its working force 
due to "slow" business. While neither the laid-off 
workers nor the employer may be aware of the situa- 
tion, the workers were displaced by the introduction 
of the new machines just as truly as if the machines 
had been installed in their own plant. Indeed, had 
the machines been installed in plant B they might 
have kept their jobs, with the displacement occurring 
elsewhere. A somewhat analogous situation presents 
itself when a producer operating a number of plants 
finds it profitable to modernize several plants, to shut 
down the least efficient ones, and to continue to pro- 
duce the same amount of goods as before. 

"Unrealized" Employment 

The difficulty of tracing the interindustry effects of 
technological changes may be met in part by treating 
the entire national economy as a single industry and 
measuring the net effects of changes in output and 
productivity. Thus the following question might be 
asked: How much of any year's unemployment can 
be ascribed to the difference between the total number 
of jobs available that year and the number which 
woidd have been required for the production of that 
year's total output had the over-all productivity re- 
mained at some previous year's level? Thus, if 100 
workers were needed to produce 100 units of produc- 
tion in 1 year and only 7!) men were needed to pro- 
duce 105 units of production in a subsequent year, the 
labor requirements per unit of production declined 
from 1 man to 0.75 (productivity increased from 
1.00 to 1.33) and the difference between the number 
of jobs available and the number which would have 
been available had productivity i-emained at the earlier 
level is equal to 26. These 26 jobs consist of 21 jobs 
which had previously existed and were eliminated by 
the increase in productivity, and 5 additional "jobs" 
which would have become available but for that same 
increase in productivity. One may therefore conclude 
that, if there are 26 unemploj'ed workers, they may 
be said to be unemployed due to increased produc- 
tivity; and that, if there are 50 unemployed workers, 
26 of them may be said to be unemployed due to in- 
creases in productivity. On the other hand, if there 
ai'e fewer than 26 unemployed workers, all of tliem 



could be designated as unemployed because of increases 
in i)roductivity.-' 

A little reflection will make it clear that if one 
chooses the "previous level of productivity" with 
which to make the comparison in a period sufficiently 
far in the past, one might find that the difference 
between the "number of jobs which would have been 
available" and the number actiuiUy available is greater 
than the total number of unemployed; it might even be 
in excess of the total available labor supply, if the in- 
creases in productivity and production were extremely 
large. These results reflect the assumption, inherent 
in the method outlined, that the volume of production 
is independent of technological progress. The fact 
is, however, that the volume of goods and services 
could not possibly have increased at the rate at which 
it has grown without the technological improvements 
which have taken place. 

If the periods chosen for comparison are relatively 
close, however, say 2 successive years, the error result- 
ing from an assumption of independence between 
changes in productivity and the volume of production 
is held to a minimum. Accepting such a degree of 
independence as a working assumption, the question 
can be rephrased as follows : How much of any year's 
unemploj'ment may be ascribed to the difference be- 
tween the number of jobs available that year and the 
number which would have been required for the pro- 
duction of that year's outjjut had the productivity 
remained at the level of the year immediately preced- 
ing it ? -- 



" The following data were presented in this example: 



Number of units produced --. 

Productivity - - 

Labor required per unit produced. 

Jobs: 

Number actually available,, 

Number which would have been available had 
productivity remained unchanged 

Difference in number available 




Second year 



105 
1.33 

.75 

79 

105 
26 



== Other questions could be presented and answered in statistical 
terms, rrofessor Harry .Terome. for instance, has formulated four dif- 
ferent questions, each of which is sulijcct to a quantitative answer : 
"How much less labor did it require to produce the current output than 
would be required at the productivity rate of the base year? • • • 
How much less labor would be required to produce the base-year out- 
put at the current productivity rate than actually was required at the 
base-year productivity rate? ♦ • • What Is the cumulative con- 
structive displacement when the displacement for each year is com- 
puted by multiplying the current year output by the differential be- 
tween the labor requirement ratios of the current and the imm''diately 
preceding year? * • * What is the cumulative constructive dis- 
placement when the displacement for each year is computed by multi- 
plying the output of the preceding year by the differential between the 
labor requirement ratios of the current and the immediately preceding 
year?" ^Mechanisation in Industry (New York: National Bureau of 
Economic Research. 10,'!4), pp. :;77-3"8. 

A number of surveys have been made by the U. S. Bureau 
of Labor Statistics to determine the extent of "technological dis- 
placement" in specific industries, answering either the first or the sec- 



82 



National Resources Committee 



If the material on total production and total em- 
ployment, presented earlier in this chapter, is sub- 
jected to the measurement implied in this question, it 
is possible to calculate the number of man-years which 
•would have been employed each year had productivity 
remained at the level of the year iinmodiately pre- 
ceding. The difference between this number and the 
number of man-years actually employed may be re- 
ferred to as '"unrealized" employment. The estimates 
shown in table 9 indicate the volume of "unrealized" 
employment as a proportion of the unemployed man- 
power which miglit have been used each year if pro- 
ductivity had remained at the preceding year's level 
and production had not been affected thereb}'. Thus, 
liad productivity remained in 1921 at the level of 1920, 
the volume of output produced in 1921 might have re- 
quired the employment of a volume of additional 
man-years equal to over one-third of the manpower 
unemployed in 1921. In 1922, nearly 50 percent of 
that year's unemployed mani)ower might have been 
used had productivity remained at the 1921 level (as- 
suming what could hardly have occurred — that pro- 
duction would have increased without the change in 
productivity). In 1933 over 13 percent of that year's 
unemployed manpower might have been put to work 
but for the rise in productivity over the preceding 
year. Expressed in terms of each year's employment, 
"unrealized" employment in 1933 was virtually the 
same as in 1921 and 1922, although it constituted a 
much smaller proportion of the total unemployed 
manpower. During the period surveyed, except for 
the period after 1929, when the sharp decline in output 
resulted in a tremendous increase in luiemployment, 
"unrealized" employment constituted from one-fifth 
to one-half of the uiu'inployed manpower in the years 
when over-all productivity increased. 

It should be kept in mind that inasmuch as these 
calculations were performed on the basis of the over- 
all figures of production, employment, and produc- 
tivity, all of the qualifications which were previously 
applied, both with respect to the concepts and the qual- 
ity of the data, apply to an even greater degree to the 
figures on "unrealized" emploj-meut. It must be re- 
membered further that for the various reasons dis- 



Table 9. — Estimates of "unrealized" employment, based on year- 
to-year increases in productivitii, 1920-35 



ond question listed above. Some of these may be found In the 
Monthly Labor Review, October and December, 1931, and February. 
March, April, and October, 1932. Kstlmatcs based on the year-to-year 
changes have be<'n less frequently made. Two such computations have 
been made by the Bureau of Ijihor Statistics for the rubber tire and 
the electric lamp industries : Boris Stern, I-abor Productivity in the 
Automobile Tire Industry (D. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Bull, No. 
585, 1933) ; and Witt Bowdon, Technological Changes and Employ- 
ment in the Electric-Lamp Industry (U, S, Bureau of Labor Statistics 
Bull. No. 593, 1933). Estimates for manufacturing, steam railroads, 
and coal mining were presented by David Weintarub in "The I'isplace- 
ment of Workers Through Increases in Efficiency and Their .\bsorption 
by Industry, 1920-31," Journal of the American Statistical -Vssocia- 
tion, XXVII, No. ISO (1032), 391. 





Man- 
years of 
actual 
employ- 
ment ' 
(1920= 
100) 


Man-years 
of possible 
employ- 
ment if 
productiv- 
ity had 
remained 
at the level 
of the pre- 
ceding 
year ' 


Man-years of "unrealized" 
employment as percent of— 


Year 


Employ- 
ment in 
1920 > 


Each 
year's 
employ- 
ment * 


Each 
year's 
unem 
ploy- 
ment > 


(1) 


(2) 


(3) 


(4) 


(5) 


(0) 


1920 


100 
81 
87 
102 
101 
104 
108 
110 
111 
116 
106 
90 
73 
72 
79 
82 


n. a. 
90 
99 
96 
104 
107 
105 
109 
116 
114 
99 
92 
73 
80 
79 
85 


n. a. 

9 
12 
(•) 

3 

3 
(•) 
(•) 

5 
(•) 
(•) 

2 
(*) 

8 
(•) 

3 


n. a. 
11 
14 

(•) 
3 
3 

/•\ 
f*l 

5 

2 
12 
4 




1921 


34 


1922 


49 


1923 


(•) 


1924 


1925 . . . 


19 


1928 


(•) 
(•) 
33 


1927 


1928 


1929 


(*) 


1930 


(•) 
4 


1931 


1932 


(•) 

14 


1933 


1934 


(•) 

5 


1935 «... 







1 Same as column (5), table 2. 

' Obtained by multiplying the index of actual employment for the preceding year 
by the percentage each ye.ir's production is of the preceding year. The resulting figure 
represents the volume of emplojTnent if productivity had remained at the level of the 
preceding year. (As percent of actual employment in 1920.) 

' Column (3) less column (2). 

' Column (4) divided by column (2). 

' Unemployment obtained from table 2. 

' Preliminary. 

•No "unrealized" employment: productivity declined or was unchanged. 

n. a. Not available. 

cussed earlier these figures do not constitute measures 
of the number of "technologically unemployed" 
workers. 

Summary 

Xo satisfactorj' method of measuring the effect of 
(eclmological changes on employment has yet been 
evolved. TJie complexity of tJie interrelationships be- 
tween industries and between productivity and pro- 
duction makes impossible an adequate quantitative 
description of llu' full effects of teciinological develop- 
ments. 

In view, however, of the number and variety of 
changes in industrial techniques during the twenties 
and the substantial volume of unemployment during 
the same period, it is reasonable to conclude that in 
any given year a considerable proportion of the unem- 
ployed consisted of workers who had been displaced 
in the various ways indicated earlier in this section. 
This conclusion is supported by the added circum- 
stance that the skills and other employment qualifica- 
tions required in the expanding service industries 
differ considerably from those possessed by workers 
displaced in those basic industries where increased 



Technological Trends 



83 



productivity was accompanied by declining employ- 
ment. Further substance is given to tliis surmise by 
the fact that the estimated unemployment for a "good" 
year like 1929, being based on the Census of Occupa- 
tions concept of "gainftil persons", includes only 
workers who had been previously employed. Aside 
from those whose unemployment was of a seasonal 
nature, a substantial proportion of these unemployed 
workers with "usual" occupations is likely to have con- 
sisted of those who were forced either out of industries 
the labor requirements of which had been reduced or 
changed or out of industries whose declining produc- 
tion was attributable to technological changes in other 
fields. 

What Happens to Displaced Workers? 

A number of questions come to mind in connection 
with the problem of determining what happens to 
the worker who has actuallj' been displaced because 
of technological improvements. Does he have diffi- 
culty in securing a new job? How long does it take? 
Does the new job pay more or less than the old one? 
Is the new job likely to be in an entirely different 
industrj', or elsewhere in the same one ? Wliat factors 
affect the ease of getting a new job? 

A number of studies made at various times throw 
a little light on these questions. Unfortunately, 
many of these studies have been made under depres- 
sion conditions, so that the results are hardly typical 
of what happens in periods of expansion. Likewise, 
few confine themselves to "technologically displaced" 
workers. In addition, these studies are still so few in 
number that valid generalizations cannot readily be 
made. The i-esults of these studies, however, taken 
separately and with due consideration of their indi- 
vidual limitations, do give us an idea of the answers 
to at least some of the questions raised. 

Duration of Unemployment 

In 1930 Ewan Clague and Walter J. Couper -^ stud- 
ied the experiences of 1,190 rubber worlcers in New 
Haven and Hartford who had been displaced by shut- 
clowns in 1929 occasioned by the shift of production 
to more efficient plants. This study revealed that, at 
the close of 11 months, 13 percent of the workers were 
still unemployed. Of those finding work, about 61 
percent were reemployed at the end of 2 months. The 
average time lost was about 4.3 months. Only 19 
percent of those placed succeeded in finding jobs that 
paid as well as their former jobs. Fully two-thirds 
were earning less than before. In some cases losses 
were as high as 50 and 60 percent of previous weekly 



earnings. Annual earnings, when expressed as per- 
centages of the incomes in 1928 (the year before dis- 
missal), were found to have fallen almost 50 percent. 

In a study conducted by Isador Lubin -' in three 
industrial cities in 1928, it was found that, out of a 
group of 754 men who had lost their jobs within the 
preceding year, 45 percent were still unemployed. 
These workers had been displaced for a variety of 
reasons. Some were displaced as a result of the in- 
troduction of technological improvements, others as 
a result of curtailed production, and still others be- 
cause the plants moved to otiier parts of the country. 

Almost one-half of those still unemployed had been 
out for 6 months or more, 18 percent for 9 months or 
more, and 8 percent for 1 year or more. Of those who 
succeeded in getting jobs, the majority had been out 
for more than 3 montlis. Almost one-half of the re- 
employed workers had incurred losses in earnings. 
Fewer than one-fifth found better-paying jobs. 

R. J. Myers' study -^ of 370 Chicago men's clothing 
cutters, displaced over the period from 1919 to 1926 
as a result of changes in the organization of the manu- 
facturing process caused by the mass production of 
popular-priced clothing, disclosed that 7 percent had 
found no work at all as late as 1928. Less than one- 
third of those who sought work were reemployed 
immediately and almost one-half were out for 4 months 
or more. The average time lost was 5.6 months. One 
group of cutters, some 236 in all, who had been paid 
a dismissal wage, lost an average of 5 months. The 
wages of 30 percent of the entire reemployment group 
showed increases over their previous earnings, while 
almost one-half showed reductions. 

Katherine DuPre Lumpkin -" conducted a study of 
the adjustments made by displaced workers in the de- 
pression period. Miss Lumpkin studied shut-downs in 
98 manufacturing plants in three counties in the Con- 
necticut Valle}' between 1929 and 1933. Four indus- 
tries — ^textiles, metals, foods, and paj^er — accounted 
for 54 percent of the shut-down establishments and more 
than 80 percent of the displaced workers. Most of the 
plants either moved to the South or other parts of 
New England or were merged with other plants. She 
made a detailed analysis of some 300 displaced textile 
workers in one of these communities and found that 
well over one-half of the workers she was able to trace 
were still unemployed in 1934. Since all of these 
workers were not dismissed at the same time, however, 
some of them had been out relatively short periods of 
time when the reports were made. Of those reem- 



=' "The Readjustment of Industrial Workers Displaced by Two Plant 
Shutdowns", Aftir the Shutdown (New Haven : Yale University Press. 
1934). pt. I. 



=* The Ab.sorption of the Unpmployod by American Industry (Wash- 
ington. D. C: Brookings Institution, 1929). 

== Occupational Read.iustmi'nts of Displaced Skilled Workers. Journal 
of PoUtical Economy, XXXVII, no. 4 (August 1919), 473-89. 

"-" Shutdowns in the Connecticut Valley, Smith College Studies in His- 
tory, vol. XIX. nos. 3 and 4 (April and .Inly 1934). 



84 



National Resources Committee 



ployed, only 11 percent reported increases, and fully 
three-quarters reported decreases, in full-time weekly 
earnings. A few of the losses reported were as high 
as 70 percent or more. Skilled workers were forced 
to resort to jobs requiring less skill and paying lower 
wages. 

Several other studies of unemployed workers and 
of applicants for employment throw some light on 
the duration of unemployment in "good" years. To be 
sure, the workers surveyed did not consist specifically 
of those displaced by technological improvements, but 
the results are nevertheless of some significance in that 
connection. 

A survey made in Philadelphia in April 1929, by 
F. D. Dewhurst and Ernest A. Tupi)er -" showed that 
about 10 percent of the employable persons were then 
totally unemployed. About one-half of these had been 
out of work for more than 3 months, between one- 
third and one-quarter for more than 6 months, and 
one-tenth for more than 1 year. This is an indicatit)n 
of the relative difficulty of obtaining work (in a large 
and diversified labor market) even in 1928 and 1929. 

A study, nuide in 1929, by Burton R. Morley,^^ of 
applicants for work at 39 Philadelphia establisliments 
showed that one-half had been unemployed for 1 
month or more, one-quarter had been out of work for 
2 months or more, one-tenth for more than 4 months, 
5 percent for more than 6 months, and 2 percent for 
1 year or more. 

Factors of Age, Skill, and Sex 

E. AVigiit Bakke's study,"' which followeil the dis- 
placed Hartford rubber workers through the first 3 
years of the depression, showed that the skilled work- 
ers lost 4.8 months in the first year. In that same 
year the unskilled lost only 4.6 months. The annual 
incomes of the former group fell to 50 percent of the 
1928 incomes, the latter to G2 percent. In the first 
year the incomes of the skilled workers declined 28 
percent more than those of the unskilled. In the 
third year following tlie shut-down, not only were the 
relative losses of the skilled greater than those of the 
unskilled, but the absolute average annual incomes 
were lower. As Dr. Bakke {)oints out, "apparently 
the qualities which helped men to rise to skilled jobs 
and high wages while at work are of limited use in 
helping men to readjust satisfactorily when the job 
goes." '" 



" Social and Economic Character of Unemployment in Philadelphia, 
April 19i;9 (U. S. Bureau of Labor StaUstlcs Bull. No. 520. 1930). 

* Occupational Experience of Applicants for Work in Philadelphia 
(University of Pennsylvania. 19301. 

=" "Former L. Candee Workers in the Depression", After the Shut- 
down (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1934), pt. II. 

"Ibid., p. 111. 



Women were placed more quickly than men, al- 
ihougli tlieir incomes suffered more. Clague and 
Couj)er found that, after 11 months, 77 percent of the 
women and only 70 percent of the men had been re- 
employed. Of tliese, 64 percent of the women and GI 
percent of the meii had been placed within 2 months. 
But among those who were placed, almost one-thiril 
of the men and only one-fourth of the women found 
jobs in which their wage rates were as high as they 
had l)oen in 1928 before they lost their jobs. The 
average weekly earnings exju-essed as percentages of 
the 1928 earnings fell to 76 percent for women and 
80 percent for men. Declines in annual incomes 
showed a verj' small difference between the sexes, with 
the women losing slightly more than the men. In- 
comes of men fell to 58 percent of the 1928 level and 
of women to 55 percent. 

Clague and Couper found that, at the end of 11 
months, 73 percent of those under 25 j'ears of age, 84 
l^ercent of those between 25 and 35, 73 percent of 
those between 35 and 45, and 61 percent of those over 
45 had been reemployed. Only 61 percent of all the 
workers had been placed within 2 months. It was also 
found tliat 23 percent of all the workers who were re- 
employed were paid wages as high as or higher than 
before. Some 31 percent of the workers under 25 
years of age were in this group while in the older 
groups the percentages were considerably under the 
average. Earnings, expressed as percentages of the 
1928 level, were 92 percent for workers under 25 3'ears 
of age, 80 percent for the group between the ages of 
25 and 35, 71 percent for those 35 to 45, and 78 percent 
for those over 45. 

Lubin found that of those getting jobs the group 
falling between the ages of 35 and 45 fared best, 65 
percent finding jobs. 

The study made by Katherine Lumpkin showed that, 
following the shutdown, those under 25 j-ears of age 
were unemployed 80 percent of the time during the 
years that followed ; those between the ages of 25 and 
35 were unemployed 72 percent of the time; those 35 
to 45, 75 jiercent : and those over 45, 87 percent. 

Absorption in Other Occupations and Industries 

In answer to questions concerning the occupations 
and the industries into which the workers were reab- 
sorbed, Lubin's figures showed that fewer than 1 in 10 
went back to their old work and that altogether only 
33 percent were reemployed in industries producing 
goods similar to those produced in their old jobs. 

Myer's figures revealed that by early summer of 1928 
only 20 percent of the Chicago cutters displaced be- 
tween 1919 and 1926 had gone back to their trade. 
All others who obtained work found it in a variety of 
employments, most of wliich had no connection witli 



Technological Trends 



85 



either their former skill or their foriuiT imlustiy. 
Only 7 percent of tliese highly skilled craftsmen found 
any kind of skilled work other than entting. 

As for the absorption of the displaced workers by 
the so-called "new" industries — personal service, auto- 
mobile and related activities, radio, motion pictures, 
and hotels and restaurants — Lubin's study showed 
that, although tliere were some reabsorptions into the 
"new" industries, they were not very numerous. Only 
53 of the 410, or 13 percent, were absorbed b}' them. 
Of these, the largest proportion entered occupations 
associated with the automobile: as chauffeurs, garage 
and filling station attendants, and allied occupations. 

Following their lay-off, some workers set themselves 
up in business. About one-fifth of the Chicago cut- 
ters and 18 of tlie 423 interviewed rubber workers, or 
3 percent, became small entrepreneurs. Of the lat- 
ter group, only five were successful; eight were dis- 
couraged, and five failed, losing $300 to $600. On the 
whole they fared badly because they had little of the 
necessary training and even less of the requisite capital. 

Most of the unemployed Philadelphia workers 
studied by Morley in 1929 had long, steady, and satis- 
factory jiast employment records. Fully two-thirds 
had held only two jobs since 1926; 87 percent had held 
only three jobs in that period. About one-third had 
made no job changes at all since 1926. Many of the 
jobs had been held for much longer than 3 years. 
Most of these, clearly, were workers whose services had 
been satisfactory and whose loss of jobs was through no 
fault of their own. This study showed, further, that 
very few of the workers had come from other com- 
munities in search of jobs. Fully 80 percent of those 
seeking employment in Philadelphia had been em- 
ployed there before dismissal, and fully 94 percent for- 
merly had jobs within a radius of 100 miles. Thei-e 
was, however, a considerable amount of occupational 
mobility. Over 70 percent of the workers holding 
more than one job since 1926 had held them in more 
than one industrj-. Only 21 {)ercent of those holding 
three jobs had remained in the same industry. 

In general, technological improvements which sub- 
stituted new processes for old have meant the displace- 
ment of workers whose special skill and training were 
no longer needed. In some few cases, generally be- 
cause a training period at the employer's expense is 
necessary anyhow, efforts had been made to retrain 
old workers and to fit them into the new jobs. At 
least one company manufacturing automobile bodies is 
known to have made successful use of this technique. 
Over the period from 1932 to 1935, this company 
shifted from the manufacture of composite auto bodies 
containing lumber to all-steel bodies. The company 
offered to train and transfer all of the affected wood- 
workers to any of the metal crafts that they chose. 



Dui-ing the jieriod of training they were guai-antced a 
niininnim wage. Following the training period, they 
became part of a gang and like the icst of the gang 
were paid on a piece-rate basis. Workers who failed 
at the crafts of their own choosing were transferred to 
any of the eight other crafts. No worker was "fired" 
unless he had failed in all crafts. Fully !^>9 percent of 
these transfers were successful. The estimated cost of 
this training was about $.")0 per worker, or about 
$15,000 in all.^" 

Summary 

As was indicated at the begiiuiing of this section, the 
material available concerning the question of what 
happens to workers who are displaced as the result of 
changing industrial techniques is very scattered and 
inconclusive. Only three of the studies described deal 
specifically with "technologically displaced" workers 
(Clague-Couper-Bakke, Myers, and Lubin) ; one deals 
with the experiences of workers displaced during the 
depression (Lumpkin) ; one deals with the workers 
displaced immediately prior to the depression and 
analyzes their experiences during 1929 (Clague- 
Couper) and during the first 3 years of the depression 
(Bakke) ; only two studies (Lubin and Myers) cover 
workers displaced prior to 1929, but both of these cover 
only male workers and one of them is concerned only 
with highly skilled workers (Myers). 

There is a cei-tain amount of agreement in the 
findings of the studies covering the displacement of 
workers in the larger communities, that is, communi- 
ties offering a fair degree of diversification in em- 
ployment opportunities. Thus, in almost every in- 
stance, it was found that the unskilled and the 
younger workers (under 25 years of age), who had 
comparatively little to lose, lost less in terms of oc- 
cupational status and earnings than the skilled work- 
ers; the middle-aged group, ranging in age from 35 
to 45, found it easier to obtain suitable employment 
than the older workers; the women found it easier to 
find jobs than the men but got poorer ones; the ma- 
jority of the workers who found jobs found them in 
industries and occupations other than those in which 
they had been previously employed. 

A great deal more should be known about the ex- 
periences of both employed and unemployed workers 
in different types of employment and unemployment 
situations and in diffei-ent parts of the country. 
Much more information is needed concerning the 
source of the labor supply in expanding occupations 
and the "new" industries. More needs to be known 
about Xhe mobility of labor in connection with the 
migi-ation of industries, and about the effect of mobil- 



" H. n. Seaman. Wooilworkers are Welders Now. Factory Management 
and Maintenance, XCIII, no. 9 (September 1935), 365-366. 



86 



Xational Resources Committee 



ity on communities which such migration often leaves 
"stranded." Information is needed concerniii'^ the 
degree of success with which retraining of workers 
from one skilled occupation to another may be ac- 
complished. Jfore knowledge is wanted on the sub- 
ject of the similarities in the character of skills re- 
required by different and seemingly unrelated occupa- 
tions. The National Research Project of the Works 
Progress Administration is attempting to find the 
answer to some of these questions through a series of 
special studies designed to throw more light on these 
problems. They must be thoroughly understood if 
proper measures are to be taken for the amelioration 
of the lot of those workers who find themselves with- 
out a source of income as a result of industrial, 
econonuc, and social change. 

Conclusions 

It was not the purpose of the foregoing discussion 
to examine in detail the inner workings of the vari(nis 
economic forces which reflect themselves in the fluclu- 
iitions of the volume of production, employment, and 
unemployment, nor was it intended to evolve a new 
and all-embracing "theory of technological unemploy- 
ment." This subject has been receiving extensive 
treatment since the beginnings of the industrial revo- 
lution; probably all of the theories, causes, and reme- 
dies now under discussion have been advanced at one 
time or another during the past one hundred years. 

Interestingly enough, the remedies which are now 
niost popularly advanced are also among the oldest. 
J. B. Say, who in the early nineteenth century was 
among the first to present a considered discussion of the 
effect of the introduction of new machines, advocated 
public intervention to consist of "restricting in the be- 
ginning the use of a new machine to certain districts 
where labor is scarce or required by other industries 
* * * providing in advance for the employment of 
the idle by undertaking at its own expense works of 
public utility, such as a canal, a highway, a big build- 
ing * * * promoting a transfer of population 
from one locality to another." In later editions of his 
works, the first suggestion was dropped on the ground 
that such intervention would "violate the property of 
the inventors." ^- The suggestion for public works, 
however, was retained. 

Since the days of Say there have been few outstand- 
ing economists who have held that technological ad- 
vances result in no employment dislocations whatever. 
Most economists have recognized the possibility or 
likelihood of temporary dislocations and displacement 
of workers as a result of improvements in production 
techniques; some have even advanced claims for the 



possibilitj- of permanent unemployment and the crea- 
tion of a "surplus population." Many of the econom- 
ists concerned themselves primarily with the problem 
of the marketability of the increased production made 
possible by changing techniques. Others have inter- 
ested themselves in the relationships between the 
volume of accumulated capital and the volume of em- 
l)l()yment it is capable of providing. Still others have 
devoted their attention to the disproportion between 
consumption and investment. Many of the writers 
who have empliasized one or the other of these factoi-s 
have at the same time been concernetl with the "fric- 
tions" and "rigidities" of the economic system wliich 
in one way or another jirevent the smooth working- 
out of the ])ai'ticular theory advanced. The enq)hasis 
on the frictional elements is especially marked in the 
more recent literature dealing with the subject. 

The current tiiinking of many economists concern- 
ing llu' problem under consideration is perhaps most 
adecpiately represented by J. M. Clark. In his recent 
work, Economics of Planning Public Works, ^^ Pro- 
fessor Clark indicates that material progress and in- 
creased output per worker may "create dislocations in 
our economic sj'stem because we cannot make the nec- 
essai-y adjustments fast enough." There is not suf- 
ficient evidence, in his opinion, to prove that these 
dislocations nuist take place, but there are prima facie 
grounds for believing that they do. Lacking the nec- 
essary adjustment, "mere technical progress seems 



L'apable 



)f brin<ring on a state of chronic 



inability to use all our labor power." 

In considering employment in the depression and 
the possibilities of a return to 1929 conditions, Clark 
stated : "Improvements have been made since 1929, 
enabling a given output to be jiroduced with less 
labor, and many more probably stand ready for inti'o- 
duction when confidence revives sufficiently and when 
the condition of the capital market makes it possible to 
raise the necessary funds. Thus, unless there is a 
shortening of hours in industry * * * there 
may be a considerable amount of unemployment even 
after the current rexival has gone as far as it can." 
He concludes that "among the possibilities which we 
may have to meet * * * are conditions of un- 
employment lasting a great deal longer than cyclical 
depressions or temporary emergencies produced by 
outside causes." 

Although the material presented in the foregoing 
sections of this chapter cannot be used either to affirm 
or deny any particular theory advanced, it does permit 
some tentative observations. 



' Traits d' fconomie poUtiquo i:;cl eil., ISl I). I. 55n. 



'^ A. study made for the Nallonal rianning Board of the Federal 
Emergency Administration of Public Works and printed by the V. S. 
Government Printing Office, 19."5. See especially cU. IV from which 
the quotations in the text arc taken. 



Technological Trends 



87 



The problem of "teclinological iinemploj-ment" is 
essentially twofold : One, the expansion of total produc- 
tion sniiiciently to ovei'come the effect on unemploy- 
ment of declining labor requirements and increasing 
labor supply; and two, adjustment of the individual 
employment dislocations which accompany technologi- 
cal progi'ess. 

The growth in total output from 1920 to 1929 was 
not sufficient, in the light of the increased productivity 
and the growth of the labor supply, to absorb all the 
available manpower; the result was a substantial vol- 
ume of unemployment during this entire period. The 
data examined indicate that, wMle the continued ad- 
vance in the material well-being of the country de- 
pends upon technological progress of the country's 
productive apparatus, we must look to a much more 
rapid expansion of production than has taken place 
between 193;5 and 1935 before we can expect a return 
either to tlie employment or to the unemployment 
levels of the predepression period. A rough calcula- 
tion indicates that, in order for unemployment to drop 
to the 1929 level by 1937, goods and services pro- 
duced would have to reach a point 20 percent higher 
than that in 1929, even if the productivity level of 
1935 remained unchanged. Further technological ad- 
vances in industries would necessitate an even greater 
expansion of production to restore predepression un- 
employment levels, while a continued relative growth 
of service activities would tend to minimize tlie volume 
of expansion required. 

An undetermined but substantial pi'oportion of the 
unemployed in any single year probably consisted of 



workers who had been displaced fi'om their jobs in one 
waj' or anotlier by the employment dislocations which 
accompany technological progress. The notable ex- 
pansion in employment which took place between 1920 
and 1929 was due almost entirely to the rapid growth 
of service activities; their occupational requirements 
dili'ered so widely from those of the basic industries 
which registered declines that it is extremely unlikely 
that all the workers displaced from basic industries 
obtained new jobs in the service industries. 

Such material as is available ou the question of 
adjustment of displaced workers indicates that the 
unskilled and younger workers lost less in occupa- 
tional status and earnings (since they had less to 
lose) than the skilled workers; the middle-aged group 
found it easier to obtain suitable reemployment than 
the older workers; women found it easier to obtain 
jobs than the men, but suffered greater income losses; 
the workers who did find jobs found them chiefly in 
occupations and industries other than those in which 
they had previously worked. 

The outlook for the immediate future seems to be 
in the direction of further technological progress to- 
ward a level of productivity substantially higher than 
that attained prior to 1929. The rate of advance of 
course differs in different industries, but since our 
economic system has not evinced an ability to make the 
necessary adjustments fast enough, it may be expected 
that the dislocations occasioned by technological prog- 
ress will continue to present serious problems of in- 
dustrial, economic, and social readjustment. 



8778°— 37- 



PART TWO 
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY 



Contents 

Page 

Section I. Tlie Relation of Science to Teclinological Trends 91 

By John C. Merriam 
Section II. The Interdependence of Science and Technology 93 

By Edward C. Elliott 



89 



I. THE RELATION OF 



SCIENCE 
TRENDS 

By John C. Merriam ' 



TO TECHNOLOGICAL 



Justification of a planning program in technology, 
as in other subjects, may arise from recognition of con- 
tiiuiing change cither as indicated in past records or 
in the conditions of any given time. If accurate pre- 
diction of future situations were possible, it would be 
important to ])lan the adjustment of flexible elements 
in all activities to conditions of the future. If precise 
forecasting is not feasible, forward-looking i)lans 
would still be desirable, as furnishing means for quick 
adaptation in order either to avoid cataclj'smic 
changes or to carry out constructive programs. The 
extent to which effective planning is possible will 
depend upon the accuracy of our knowledge concern- 
ing both individual features and the laws expressed in 
changes known to have taken place. 

Modification in what we call the result or contribu- 
tion of technology as illustrated in industry sometimes 
occurs so quickly that it produces distui'bing social in- 
fluences. If such shifts could be foreseen, many diffi- 
culties would be avoided. If they cannot be predicted, 
it may still be possible to understand the circum- 
stances sufficiently to avoid unfoiiunate effects if pre- 
cautionary measures are taken. 

The relation of science to technology has become in- 
creasingly important as the products of research come 
to have a more significant place in industry. In de- 
velopment of this relation connecting science and 
technology and industry, the responsibility of science 
to the contribution of technology is evident. But com- 
monly the relation of science to industry and tech- 
nology is only in part direct; generally it is the ap- 
plication of inventive genius in utilization of results 
coming from research that brings about the rapidly 
developing series of changes in engineering and 
industry. 

The importance of the relation of science to technol- 
ogy and to industry depends in considerable part upon 
the expectation of changes in science which nuiy affect 
technology and influence industry or even the general 
trend of thought. If we were known to be dealing 
with a static world in which our knowledge regarding 
all available materials and of man was approximately 
complete, it would be possible to formulate plans 
which, with slight variation, might operate almost in- 
definitely. It is, however, clear that by whatever 
means we view the history of science and research we 
are seen to be dealing with almost continuously chang- 



1 President, Cai'negie Institute of Washington. 



ing conditions to which adjustment must be made. 
Activities coming out of the growth of science have 
given us means for new development of transportation, 
geographic discovery, communication, and a multitude 
of other things, perliaps culminating in the automo- 
bile and the radio of the present day. A relatively 
large percentage of these recent advances has arisen 
from the contribution of science carried to application 
by engineering. A critical question in discussion of 
this subject concerns the expectation of a continuing 
sui^ply of new knowledge from science which may 
lead to technology and industry. 

We may perhaps set down as one of the most im- 
portant contributions from modern science and re- 
search the suggestion that we are probably very far 
from having a complete kjiowledge of anything in the 
world of physical, biological, or human values. In 
the universe of things physical alone, very great ad- 
vances have been made within the last generation in 
our knowledge of materials, forces, and conditions 
encountered on all sides in everyday life. In biology 
the degree of complication is still greater, and inves- 
tigators generally hold that we are just beginning to 
understand fundamental life conditions and processes. 

To those acquainted with the development of science 
there is little difficulty in accepting the suggestion that 
our knowledge of nature and man will increase greatly 
with the coming centuries. It is also to be expected 
that human constructive activity will bring about the 
creation of conditions and relationships which h.ave 
not previously existed. If this suggestion be accepted, 
development of any planning program of national 
scope must take into consideration the significance of 
these new factors in bringing about readjustment. 
While it is not possible to predict the direction which 
such changes will take, or the specific fields in which 
discoveries, inventions, or new creative activities may 
express themselves, it would be unfortunate if these 
possibilities were neglected in a general planning pro- 
gram. 

It is essential also that a planning program give at- 
tention to study of the actual applications being made 
of values derived from research in its various forms. 
Organization of means by which results of science al- 
ready available or arising through new discoveries 
could eome into human use might mean an enormous 
contribution to betterment of conditions for life. 

The law of survival of the fittest would ultimately 
care for new materials and new ideas. But our knowl- 

91 



92 

edge of evolutionary processes over the ages indicates 
clearly that intelligent grouping or cooperation or 
guidance, without the necessity of absolute restraint, 
may bring about relatively favorable conditions, and 
in a shorter time than is possible through influence of 
the law of survival of the fittest or the fight for exis- 
tence. It is a part of the responsibility of an intelli- 
gent people to consider values which it creates and 
their relation to other values. It is doubtful whether 
long range planning activity can perform a more im- 
portant service than that which may be contributed 
through study of possible situations in this field. 

Further study of all programs relating to protec- 
tion given by patents may aid in discussion of this 
question. In accepting responsibility for adjustment 
to advances through discovery and invention, it is pos- 
sible to plan a program of patenting which would 
consider public interest to a larger extent in directions 
where such interest needs protection. 

The means by which adequate balance can be estab- 
lished among the interests and contributions of science 
leading into technology and industry, and the elements 
arising out of studies on social, economic, and govern- 
mental questions cannot be determined through the 
thought of a moment only. They represent some of the 
most difficult among all human problems. They in- 
volve on one hand the possibility of high development 
of specialized knowledge and, on the other, the organi- 
zation of society for mutual benefit. The spread be- 
tween the highest expi'ession of these types of interests 
is wide. But there is an intermediate position which 
must be found in order to secure the benefits of all. 

From a number of directions we have the suggestion 
that for guidance in development of new ideas, and 
for the protection of society, it is desirable to set up 
types of organization which may bring together scien- 
tists, engineers, and forward-looking students of so- 
cial and economic problems with a view to keeping 
close watch upon related problems in these several 
fields. The finding of something like common view- 



National Resources Committee 

points for investigators in different subjects may be 
difficult, but it will have increasing importance. 
Such an activity might be established in the hope of 
fitting new ideas and new techniques to advancing 
industries and to new phases of social and economic 
endeavor. If developed guardedly, such a forward- 
looking program presumably would not hinder the 
advance of civilization, and might be expected to aid in 
adjustment of human groups to some of the changes 
which inevitably take place. 

It is important to note that a responsibility for 
keeping in view the possibility of social influences 
arising fi-om use of scientific techniques rests in part 
upon the scientist. Assuming that there will be an 
uneven movement in the economic-social stream, there 
is value in having those best acquainted with the na- 
ture of new materials and new activities keep in mind 
the fact that they, as the source of such influences, 
should have some acquaintance with ultimate applica- 
tion of their products. At the same time it must be 
realized that unwise use may be due to factors of so- 
cial significance Avith which the student of social prob- 
lems should plan to keep close acquaintance. 

In following the implications of these questions it 
is, among other things, important to examine the idea 
that scientific methods may function as techniques, 
which in various ways influence modes of thought and 
even concern aspects of judgment. If science exerts 
this influence, it is essential that its contribution be 
guarded with the greatest care as to its use in educa- 
tion, and also watched by the ablest students as to the 
manner in which it may affect or guide thought. As 
one possible influence of science upon thought, we may 
assume that if the minds of all citizens could be so 
informed and trained that as a rule there would be 
insistence upon having and using the elements of fact 
and reality, which are the basis of science and research, 
there would be guaranteed a relatively safer situation 
with reference to the handling of all human problems 
than has commonlj' obtained. 



II. THE INTERDEPENDENCE OF SCIENCE AND 

TECHNOLOGY 

By Edward C. Elliott ' 



It is erroneous to believe that a new induslrinl achievement, 
based on inventive research icork and on technical develop- 
ment, must necessarily be the result of an inventive idea. It 
is quite possible that the economic necessity to produce a ma- 
terial not only inspires the inventor but actually leads to the 
invention. We, therefore, have to distinguish between inven- 
tions resulting from strictly scientific research loorlc and in- 
ventions which are, so to speak, made to order. (Fi-iedrich 
Bergius, general director. Deutscho-Borsin. A.-G., before the 
American Clieraieal Society, rittslnirgh, ItKiC!.) 

As one takes a long:-range view of the m;uiy mnilein 
forms of productive human activity, to which the term 
"technology" is applied, one cannot fail to see the con- 
spicuous influence of science thereon. This is a com- 
monplace of contemporary thought. Yet tliere is an 
inclination to overlook one aspect of the relation of 
scientific research to modern industry. That is the 
modification of science itself througli the procedures 
of industrial development. Consequently any depend- 
able formida of planning for the future will include 
the recognition of the increasing interdependence of 
scientific research and that complex economic agency 
called industry. Such interdependence is obvious as 
to those fields of applied science commonly classified as 
industrial research. On the other hand, the contribu- 
tions to pure science coming from the search for new 
and more effective industrial processes may not be 
disregarded in any well-balanced planning scheme. In 
the world ahead, industry more and more will make 
use of the results of disinterested science. Likewise, 
more and more, industry will provide compensating 
contributions to the nature and the nurture of scientific 
concepts. 

It is natural that an industrial organization whose 
existence can be traced to discoveries in pure science 
continues to be interested in promoting further investi- 
gations in its own field. Therefore, it is not surpris- 
ing to observe companies such as du Pont, Carbide and 
Carbon Chemicals Corporation, General Electric, and 
Bell Telephone, carrying out purely scientific experi- 
mentation of the highest quality in their own labora- 
tories. If a specific example were needed to illustrate 
the scientific importance of such research it would 
suffice to mention Langmuir's contributions to the 
chemistry of surfaces which have resulted in a Nobel 
laureate. 



1 President Purdue University. 



The fact that this policy has not been more widely 
adopted has doubtless been in part due to the short- 
sightedness of certain executives, particularly those of 
old, well-established industries, who were either skep- 
tical of the value to their company of research in pure 
science, or were frankly unwilling to foster revolu- 
tionary advances. It should be said, however, that the 
one thing which may confidently be expected of re- 
search in pure science of the future is that its appli- 
cations will be unexpected. They are quite as apt to 
benefit some other industry as the one which initiated 
them. It is largely for this reason that small com- 
panies are, in general, not so likely to support this 
type of investigation as are large groups of affiliated 
corporations with activities covering a wide range of 
interests, and which consequently have a greater prob- 
ability of benefiting from an unexpected discovery. 

In addition to the pursuit of pure science within cor- 
porate laboratories, there has been much direct sub- 
sidization of university research. The distinction be- 
tween pure and applied science is at best an artificial 
one and the celerity with which a given fact, theory, or 
material will pass from the former to the latter category 
is a commonplace among scientists. Many research 
problems are not only of fundamental importance 
scientifically, but it is obvious that their successful 
solution would be of real or jDotential benefit to in- 
dustry. The question of the mechanism of chemical 
catalysis is an example of a fascinating scientific prob- 
lem, the elucidation of which would not only be a 
scientific achievement of the first order but wotild also 
be of immense economic value. It is this type of in- 
vestigation which has most frequently been carried 
on in universities as the result of industrial fellow- 
ships. The du Pont Co. and the Eli Lilly Co. have 
established a considerable number of university fel- 
lowships without any restrictions on the problem to 
be studied except that it should be in the general field 
of organic chemistry. 

The indirect effect of industrial research upon pure 
science investigations in the universities is much gi-eater 
than that of the fellowships previously mentioned. 
The bulk of university scientific work is carried out 
in the various graduate schools as a part of the pro- 
fessional training of young scientists. The majority 
of these men and women find employment somewhere 
in our elaborate technological structure. Wliether the 

93 



94 



National Resources Committee 



professor desires it or not, there is inevitably a strong 
preference upon the part of young men and women 
for study in those scientific curricula the graduates 
of which are demanded by industry. Tlie great ex- 
pansion of organic and physical chemistry in this 
country during the past two decades has been in re- 
sponse to a very definite commercial demand which has 
thus influenced the develojiment of those sciences as 
surely as though by direct financial subsidization. 

Another mode in which technology has been of 
tremendous benefit to pure scientific research is in the 
development of novel apparatus and materials for 
performing tasks which ]u-eviously could be done ineffi- 
ciently, or not at all. Precision balances, compound 
microscopes, reagent grade chemicals, micrometer 
calipers, thermionic tubes, and scientific glassware are 
so commonplace that we are apt to forget that we owe 
them, at least in their present form, to technological 



development to meet industrial demands. The Pod- 
bielniak apparatus for precise laboratory fractional 
distillation, which has made possible a new degree of 
accuracy in aliphatic chemistry, was developed as a 
result of a patent litigation! 

The motives which cause certain men and women to 
engage in the strenuous and exacting toil of scientific 
i-esearcli are numerous. One such motive, far from in- 
appreciable in its effect upon many scientists, is the 
conscious or subconscious desire to control tlie forces of 
nature for hmnan ends. The far-flung effects of this 
control and of these ends upon national plamiing have 
been tersely expressed recently by the British scien- 
tist, Sir William Bragg — "Pure science, that which I 
have referred to as long distance science, is interna- 
tional. At a scientific conference nationality disap- 
pears. It is when the results of science are incorpo- 
rated into business and trade that trouble begins." 



PART THREE 
TECHNOLOGY IN VARIOUS FIELDS 



Contents 

Page 

Section I. Agriculture 97 

By S. II. McCrory, R. F. Heiulrickson and Committee 
Section II. The Mineral IndiLstries 145 

By F. G. Tryon, T. T. Read, K. C. Heald, G. S. Rico, and Oliver Bowles 
Section III. Transportation 177 

Ey Harold A. Osgood and Committee 

Section TV. Conuniuiications 210 

By T. A. M. Craven and Committee and A. E. Giegengack 
Section V. Power 249 

By A. A. Potter and M. M. Samuels 

Section VI. Tiic Chemical Industries 289 

By Harrison E. Howe 
Section VII. The Electrical Goods Industries 315 

By Andrew W, Cruse 
Section VIII. Metallurgy 329 

By C. C. Furnas 
Section IX. The Construction Industries 367 

By Lowell J, Cliawner and Others 



877S — 37 s 95 



I. AGRICULTURE 

By S. H. McCrory, R. F. Hendrickson and Committee ' 



Introduction 

Few industries are influenced by as many and varied 
technologies as agriculture. These technologies are, of 
course, unequal in influence. Similarly, the numerous 
branches and types of agriculture represented in this 
country are very uneven in their responsiveness to 
technologies. 

To forecast scientific discovery, mechanical inven- 
tion, or the rise of new metliods is a hazardous under- 
taking. To weigh their probable influence is infinitely 
more hazardous. It is evident that the effects of many 
technological develojjments long known and widely ap- 
plied in farming have escaped accurate measurement. 

All this has been recognized in this effort to indicate 
future trends in technology as they may affect agri- 
culture. Because of the large variety of technologies 
which bear on agriculture, specialists in fields which 
have contributed greatly to technological change in 
agriculture — fields in which there is reasonable expec- 
tation for further advance — have been invited to indi- 



cate avenues of promise. They have been asked to 
relate these to past and, especially, to recently erected 
milestones of discovery so as to assist in throwing light 
on economic and social implications of developments 
ahead. 

Men are not possessed of equal amounts of hope and 
caution. The sections of this chapter which follow 
reflect this factor of human variability. Some con- 
tributors may prove to have been too optimistic with 
regard to both future developments and their impli- 
cations; others are doubtless cautious to an extent 
that will be handicapping to persons who are anxious 
to anticipate future technologies with a view to pre- 
paring for them. 

It should not be infeiTed that technological change 
affecting agriculture is limited to fields dealt with 
here. Such a view would be as unwarranted as opin- 
ions that new discoveries, inventions, and techniques 
will come only in the formalized areas of investiga- 
tion — or only from those who are seeking them. 



I. TECHNOLOGY: ITS ADVANCE AND IMPLICATIONS 



The productivity of the average worker in agi-i- 
culture has been stepped up greatly in the past 
100 years and this trend promises to continue. The 
rate of the increase has been almost steadily ris- 
ing. If this continues to be the trend numerous a-d- 
justments will be necessary in the future. And these 
adjustments will mean social and economic change 
as surely as the past 100 years have brought change 
affecting in some way every person engaged in 
agricultui'e. 

Contributions making possible the increase in pro- 
ductivity have come from many sources and not alone, 
as is often supposed, from the invention, improve- 
ment, and use of machinery and power. Major con- 
tributions have come through the introduction, 
adaptation, and improvement of plants and livestock; 



I This chapter was prepared under the direction of S. H. McCrory, 
chairman, and Roy F. Hendriclison, secretary, of the committee ou 
technology of the U. S. Department of Agriculture. Mr. McCrory is the 
Chief of the Bureau of Agricultural Engineering. Mr. Hendrickson is 
Director of Economic Information of the Bureau of Agricultural Eco- 
nomics, other members of the committee are : H. T. Herrick. Bureau 
of Chemistry and Soils ; Eussell S. Kifer, Bureau of .\gricultural Eco- 
nomics ; O. V. Wells, Agricultural Adjustment Administration ; S. C. 
Salmon, Bureau of Plant Industry ; Earl 0. Whittier, Bureau of Dairy 
Industry ; and Paul Howe, Bureau of Animal Inrhistry. The committee 
was assisted by Roman L. Home, Caroline B. Sherman, A. B. Genung, 
and other members of the Department's staff whose contributions are 
noted in the various sections of the chapter. The introduction and the 
section on Technology : Its Advance and Implications were written by 
Mr. Hendrickson. 



the increased ability to meet the challenges of insects, 
jDests, and diseases; increase in knowledge relating to 
the use and replenislmaent of soils; and improvement 
in managerial and marketing techniques. 

None of these sources has run dry. Few technolo- 
gies available to agriculture have been utilized fully. 
Maximum efficiency in farm production has not been 
reached and is not in sight. It could not be reached 
without social cost ; it cannot be stopjjed without social 
cost. 

The March of Change 

Twenty-five years after the signing of the Declara- 
tion of Independence farmers here and abroad were 
still employing largely the techniques of 3,000 years 
before. Plows were wooden, crude. In many areas 
hand tools were favored over plows in preparing 
soils for seeding. Cotton and corn were planted by 
dropping seed and covering it with a hoe — much as 
surburban gardeners of today plant radishes, endive, 
or sweet corn. Small grains were sown by hand. 
Cultivation and harvest were performed largely with 
hand methods. 

The cotton gin, invented soon after the Revolu- 
tionary War, was one of the earliest of a long series 
of inventions that changed greatly the character of 
American farm production. Authorities are not in 

97 



98 



National Resources Committee 



agreement as to the exact date the grain cradle was 
introduced. However, there is sufficient available in- 
formation to fix the date sometime between l7Gt) and 
1800. The iron plow came into general use about 1820 
to 1830. The hay rake and the first crude threshing 
machine came into use soon after. An abundance of 
land was available for crops and livestock. Export 
markets opened, especially for grain. 

The three decades, 1830 to 1860, constituted an out- 
standing period in the development of farm machin- 
ery. During the Civil War, with manpower on 
farms reduced and the demand for food increased, 
there were developed or greatly improved the mowing 
machine, the steam tractor, the grain separator, and 
the reaper. The war removed a million men from 
northern farms alone, while needs for farm products 
increased — incentives to change quite different from 
those which now exist. 

The stream of mechanical improvements continued 
to flow. The invention of the internal-combustion 
engine opened the way to development of the modern 
tractor. This in turn opened the way to development 
of more implements. Today farmers can obtain from 
merchants in nearly every connnunity, or bj' mail 
order, a large and growing variety of mechanical aids. 
Meanwhile, plants have been adapted to meet tests 
of higher efficiencj' from the standpoint of increased 
yields, better quality, and resistance to disease, and to 
meet a wide variety of growing conditions. Specific 
qualities in livestock have been stressed in breeding, 
particularly more efficient feed utilization. 

Areas of land that resisted profitable cultivation 
before have been utilized since the arrival of the trac- 
tor. The introduction and adaptation of plants have 
helped to make this possible. The Corn Belt was 
moved northward and westward by the corn breeder. 
The introduction of Russian strains of wheat pushed 
production westward into dry-farming areas. The 
develoi)nient of rust-resistant grains contributed to 
increasing yields in many wheat-producing areas. 

Numerous diseases affecting plants, trees, and ani- 
mals hiive been brought under control or weapons 
have been provided for fighting them effectively. It 
is said that every trace of hoof-and-mouth disease, 
which brought heavy losses and costly preventative 
measui-es on several occasions, has been stamped out 
of the United States, even out of research laboratories. 

Changes Affecting Rural Living 

Technological development has brought and will 
continue to bring other primary and derivative in- 
fluences affecting rural conditions of living and not 
alone in the fields of crop and livestock production. 
The automobile, the radio, the telephone, the daily and 
weekly newspaper have increased the means of com- 



munication, bringing farmers, in terms of time and 
distance, closer to each other and to centers of popula- 
tion, education, and entertainment. Motion pictures 
ha\e affected rural habits and customs. Although 
they elude adequate measure, their effects on the fash- 
ions, speech, and moral attitudes of rural people are 
many and evident. Rural mail delivery and improved 
roads have become available to very large numbers 
of country people. The opening of avenues of com- 
munication has meant the breaking down of many 
provincial barriers. 

But like technologies primarily influencing efficiency 
in production, these streams of influences have not 
spread out evenly over the country-side. Low incomes 
appear to be the most important limiting factor in 
accounting for the large numbers of farm families 
without telephones, automobiles, radios, electricity, 
and household labor-saving equipment. Many farms 
relatively well equipped with modern production tools 
and techniques ai-e without running water, bath- 
rooms, and electric lights, and other comforts and con- 
\eniences. It is frequently said that overemphasis has 
been placed on production efficiency by farmers gen- 
erally ; that they have passed on their gains too readily 
as a result of intense competition ; and that they have 
tended to overcapitalize their land, thus limiting their 
ability to acquire conveniences contributing to raising 
living standai'ds. 

Teclinology Often Blamed 

Technology is often charged with this responsibility. 
The difficulty is not with technology; it is with the 
failure of the economic and social S3'stem to make 
needed readjustments. 

There are extreme variations in planes of rural liv- 
ing measurable in terms of creature comforts. Wide 
variations occur in rural housing and the use of house- 
hold conveniences. Educational opportunities for 
rural people are unequal in the extreme. Conmiunity 
services vary widely, not alone between -regions, but 
between conmiunities. Resources that form the foun- 
dation of livelihood vary widely, of course. These 
variations point to the necessity of avoiding extremes 
in generalizing regarding farms and farmers. In con- 
sidering technology and the farmer, sight should not 
be lost of the fact that many forces beyond the im- 
mediate control of farmers as individuals operate to 
encourage and discourage utilization of many branches 
of science and invention. 

Although electricity has been ver^- generally used in 
cities and villages for many years, only about 12 per- 
cent of American farms are being served from a cen- 
tral power plant. In Holland 100 percent of the 
farms are electrified, while in Germany about 90 per- 
cent have electricity. It is true that conditions are 



Technological Trends 



99 



not similar liere and in those nations; the size of 
farm units and tlie character of the aixriciilture are 
among tlie notewortliy di lie I'e noes. Electrification of 
farms, with public support through creation of the 
Rural Electrification Administration, is proceeding 
more rapidly than before. Electrification means the 
addition of devices and services, many of whicli con- 
tribute directly to increase in productive efficiency of 
farm workers. The relatively great distance between 
American farms has been a major handicap to 
electrification. 

Increase in Productivity 

In 1787, the year the Constitution was framed, the 
surplus food produced by 19 farmers went to feed 
one city person. In recent average years 19 people 
on farms have produced enough food for 56 nonfarm 
people, plus 10 living abroad. 

Productivity per fann worker increased steadily, 
and at very nearly tlie same rate in agriculture as in 
industry during the 75 years after 1850. Between 
1910 and 1930, output per worker increased 39 percent 
in manufacturing and 41 percent in agriculture. 



The Institute of Economics of the Brookings Insti- 
tution = developed an index of labor efficiency in agri- 
cultural production, based in part on census reports. 
Agricultural production per male employed in agri- 
culture during the 5 years centering on 1899 was repre- 
sented by the figure 100. A decade later the index 
stood at 99.2, two decades later at 112.1, and during the 
5-year period centering on 1929 at 143.1. The index of 
agricultural production per year of labor for the 
same periods, it reported as follows: 1897-1901, 100; 
1907-11, 97.2; 1917-21, 107.6; 1927-31, 132.9. 

The decade of the tM'enties witnessed a striking 
increase in farm efficiency in terms of productivity. 
From 1922 to 1926, production increased 27 percent 
while crop acreage remained little changed and the 
number of workers in agriculture decreased. 

Studies by the Bureau of Agricultural Economics of 
estimated amounts of man labor used by growers for 
producing an acre of 100 bushels of wheat, of 100 
bushels of corn, and 500-pound gross-weight bales of 



= America's Capacity to Produce, 1034, p. 38 (published by the Brook- 
ings Institution, Washington, D. C.) 




U. S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 



NEG. 24018 



BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS 



Figure 5. As automobiles are liept both for use in farm business and for pleasure, a high percentage of the farms of the country are so equipped. Only in the Southeastern Stateu 
and in Arizona do the percentages run less than 50, while in the Northern States, from 60 to 85 percent of the farms reported automobiles. 



100 



National Resources Committee 



cotton for designated periods (5-year averages) reveal 
striking changes over a half century (table 10). 

Between 1930 and 1935, agricultural production de- 
clined more than 10 percent, owing principally to un- 
favorable weather. Meanwhile, because of urban un- 
employment conditions, nearly 2,000,000 people were 
living on farms on January 1, 1935, who were not liv- 
ing on farms 5 years before, and perhaps 2,0U0,0O0 
farm youth remained on farms who would have mi- 
grated to cities if jobs had been available. This had 
the effect of reducing per capita productivity on farms. 
Productivity per worker probably declined 20 per- 
cent between 1929-30 and 1934-35, with about one-half 
of this decline due to di'oughts. 

An important factor in increasing per worker pro- 
ductivity, especially during the twenties, was that as 
mechanical power increased, land formerlj- required 
for producing feed for hoi"ses and mules was released 
for the production of commodities offered for sale. 
The loss of about 9.000,000 hoi-ses and mules on farms 
between 1918 and 1932 — and probably a million more in 
cities — is credited with releasing more than 30,000,000 
acres each of crop land and pastures. 



In 1920 the production of butterfat per cow in herds 
owned by members of 452 dairy-herd-improvement as- 
sociations averaged 247 pounds amiually. By 1928 
the average had increased to 2S4 pounds; by 1930 to 
302 pounds, and by 1932 to 310 pomids. in the 5 
years preceding the depression the number of dairy 
cows in the Nation was about 5 percent greater than 
10 years before. The production of milk was 25 per- 
cent greater while it is estimated the consumption of 
feed did not increase over 15 percent. 

Fewer Farms — Fewer Farmers 

Fai'uiers do not and cannot ai)ply at equal rates the 
products of science and invention. Out of this fact 
arises one of the most significant impacts of technolog- 
ical change in agriculture. 

In some types of agriculture per capita productiv- 
ity has increased much more slowly than in others. 
The increase in efficiency has been most striking in 
the production of grain and hay crops. Cotton, fruit, 
and tobacco production have been given less mechan- 
ical assistance than grain and hay. Most cotton and 
fruit is still picked by hand. Science has aided the 




U. S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 



NEG. 24030 



BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS 



Figure o. Tbedisinbuliou of motor tracks on farms is somewhat less concentrated than is the distribution of tractors on farms. However, probably above 85 i)ercent of all motor 
trucks are located iu the eastern half of the United States, with the heaviest concentration in the general vicinity of New York City. Trucks are more plentiful in the South 
and West than are tractors. 



Technological Trends 



101 



Table 10. — Estimated amounts of man labor used to produce an 
acre of 100 bushels of wheat, of 100 bushels of com, and 500- 
pound gross weight bales of cotton for designated periods 





Yearly average for— 




1878-82 


1898-1902 


1928-32 


Wheat: 

Man labor per acre: 

Prior to harvest hours.. 

Harvest. do 


6 
U 


5 

7 


3 
4 




17 

3(5, 100, 000 

476.061,000 

13.2 

129 


12 

49, 929, 000 

694, 576, 000 

13.9 

86 


- 


Acreage hsirvested acres.. 

Production bushels.. 

Yield per acre do 

Man labor per 100 bushels.. .hours.. 


58, 722, 000 

844, 640, 000 

14.4 

49 


Com: 

Man labor per acre: 

Prior to harvest hours.. 

Harvest... do 


28 
18 


22 
16 


14 
12 


Total, hours 


46 

62,857,000 

1,609,966,000 

25.6 

180 


38 

94, 319, 000 

2,441,882,000 

25.9 

147 


26 


Acreage harvested acres.. 

Production bushels.. 

Yield per acre do 

Man labor used per 100 bushels 

hours.. 


102, 393, 000 

2, 557, 071, 000 

25.0 

104 


Cotton; 

Man labor per acre: 

Prior to h:irvest hours.. 

Harvest do 


67 
52 


62 
51 


48 
37 


Total, hours 


119 
15, 125, 000 

5, 917, 000 

196 
304 


113 
25,675,000 

10, 177, 000 

198 
285 


85 


Acreage harvested acres.. 

Production (500-pound gross- 


40, 535, 000 
14,656.000 


Yield per acre (pounds gross 
lint). _ 

Man labor per bale hours. - 


181 
235 



production of all of these, particularly in fighting off 
enemies, such as disease and pests. 

For topograpliical reasons many farms are not 
suited to effective use of tractors. Tliey may be hilly 
or poorly drained. A barrier to their use wliich is 
far more general is the size of the farming unit or 
the character of the farming enterprise. Tractors and 
machines mean a considerable investment. The in- 
vestment cannot be justified in terms of lower pro- 
duction costs and higher net income if equipment is 
idle beyond certain time limits. A four-row corn 
planter is not economically justified on a farm tliat 
lias only 10 to 20 acres of corn. Thus there has been 
added to "man-sized farm" and "family-sized farm" 
the term "tractor-sized farm." 

Generally, technological trends in agriculture liave 
been in the direction of larger and larger farm units. 
Recently in the case of machinery an influence tending 
to modify this trend has been emphasis on develop- 
ment of smaller units. Many of the smaller units, as 
in the case of tractors and combines, are high in 
efficiency relative to larger units. 



Many techniques do not require larger farm units 
and the emphasis on larger units varies a great deal 
between branches of agriculture and the i-egions where 
these are imjiortant. Larger-scale operations in some 
lines, particularly where extensive farming is the most 
efficient practice, are likely to increase, while at the 
same time other farms, offering opportunity for inten- 
sive land use, may tend to become smaller. 

The atljustments toward larger units is not readily 
made because of limitations on the ability of most 
farmers to acquire uiore land and the problem of an 
alteruative opportunity to make a livelihood by those 
who -would sell or lease their farms to others. 

Lai-ger units in many types of farming, particularly 
those which lend themselves to mechanization, lend to 
reduce production costs and increase net income. They 
make possible a greater division of labor with more 
specialization; thej' justify larger investments in ma- 
chinery; they make possible purchases of supplies in 
larger quantities and reduce overhead costs much in 
the way larger factory units achieve certain economicii 
that are impossible for smaller competitors. But, ex- 
cept for very rare cases incident to the production of 
specialties, the farm unit, no matter how large, cannot 
harvest the monopoly gains that in many cases grow 
out of consolidation of industrial units. 

Large units do not escape the fact that the propor- 
tion of fixed costs is relatively much higher in agri- 
culture than in industry. Production and prices of 
farm products are much less certain than production 
and prices of many, if not most, industrial products. 
The large farming enterprise is therefore subject to 
many risks — the vagaries of weather, pests, and dis- 
eases, even though technology has erected some effec- 
tive defenses against these. The farming enterprise 
built around a family has shown an extraordinary ca- 
pacity to weather these risks. The family will sacri- 
fice living standards and will continue producing even 
when returns on its labor are reduced to very low 
levels. 

Potential Farm Production 

Thus potential production cannot be dealt with 
realistically in terms of achieving maximum efficiency 
quickly. The readjustment, involving as it would 
widespread reorganization in terms of larger units, 
coidd not be acccmiplished speedily even if that were 
desirable. The risks involved are of limited attractive- 
ness to capital at the present time. With the existing 
limitation on alternative opportunities of employment 
for persons not engaged in agriculture, operating farm 
owners would not readily part with their holdings. 

More persons now are engaged in agriculture than 
can be supported if a steady rise in rural living stand- 
ards is to be achieved. Unless there is an increase in 



102 



National Resources Committee 



the rate at which rural people are absorbed in industry, 
the number of persons to be supj^orted by ajj^riculture 
will continue to increase. Rural bii'th rates are char- 
acteristically higher than are the rates for any other 
major population group. Rural areas are now respon- 
sible for most of the Nation's net increase in population. 
Some decline in rural birth rates has been indicated in 
recent j'ears and a trend toward a further decrease is 
probable, because tlie gradual spread of birth control 
is to be expected. 

But larger farms and a smaller proportion of the 
Nation's population engaged in agriculture do not ne- 
cessitate abandonment of the principle of familj'-sized 
farms, a traditional objective in American agriculture. 
Reorganization of family farms in terms of size and 
adjustments in practices has been going on steadily in 
response to technological and other factoi-s for genera- 
tions. This will continue. Many farms have decreased 
in size with gains in efficiency when the type of agri- 
culture has changed reflecting some factor such as a 
new road to a city market or establishment of a can- 
ning factory that has made truck growing profitable 
where more extensive farming was practiced before. 



Tliere liave been and there will continue to be decreases 
also where tliere are opijortunities for outside employ- 
ment, often i)art-time. But where the opportunity for 
an increased income arises only out of commercial 
farm production the chief trend will be toward that 
size unit which promises lower costs — and this promise 
generally is identified with more land. 

Production which is most highly efficient in terms 
of maximum income for labor and expense involved 
does not necessarily imply higher average per acre 
yields. The law of diminishing returns imposes a 
definite limitation on forcing output. It is a limiting 
factor which imposes a barrier of practicality to such 
spectacular feats as producing vast quantities of given 
pi'oducts in trays, in greenliouses, or on small areas 
of land intensively fertilized. The possibility that 
these methods may prove increasingly practical is, 
however, by no means closed. 

There are many individual estimates that applica- 
tion of maximum use of present available technologies 
in agriculture might mean an increase from 25 to 50 
percent in output, somewhat irregularly distributed 
among commodities. They cannot be proved, but they 




U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 



NE6. 24031 



BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS 



FioiBE 7. If a Dorth-south line were drawn across tho Great Plains area dividing the country in half it would be seen that fully 90 pcrccul of all tractors on farms are located in the 
eastern halt of the United Stales. This concentration, centering around the Great Lakes, is due in part to diflcrcnces in soil and tope graphy, t he grcatc^ density of population 
In the east and the type of agriculture practiced. Note the comparative absence of tractors on farms in the Cotton Belt and in the Western Mountain and range States. 



Technological Trends 



103 



have a sufficient basis of fact to deserve consideration. 
Assuming that the present area devoted to agricul- 
ture were not reduced, tiiis would mean, over a period 
of years with average weather, vast unsalable sur- 
pluses. For agriculture continues to stand face to face 
with the problem of an increasing potential capacity 
to produce out of proportion to its capacity to gain 
outlets for its products. 

Markets for Farm Products 

P'oreign markets for farm products are not being 
reopened rapidly. Yet the Nation's farm plant con- 
tinues to be on a scale capable of sending 12 to 25 
percent of its output abroad in years of average crop 
yields. 

Domestic i-equirements for farm products remain 
relatively inelastic. There is doubt wliether consump- 
tion at present levels of consumers incomes would in- 
crease more than 10 percent even if it were possible 
to reduce prices of farm products 25 to 50 percent. 
Domestic consumption of farm products remained 
relatively stable during the years 1930 to 1933 while 
farm prices were extremely low. Since food habits 
are relatively inflexible, it is doubtful that any but the 
very poor would consume much more as a result of a 
substantial increase in consumer income. New indus- 
trial uses, while promising, do not at present offer 
definite outlets for large quantities of products beyond 
present utilization. This subject is discussed in a 
separate section later in this chapter. 

In principle, gains in efficiency are largely passed on 
ultimately to consumers. In the case of gains in fann 
output they appear to be passed on at a rate which is 
rapid in relation to other industries which are not 
made up of so many units. In agriculture the factor 
of many competing units forestalls widespread group 
action in maintaining price levels. 

If all farmers adopted improvements simvdtaneously, 
consumers would get most of the benefits quickly under 
the system of competition that applies to most farm- 
ing enterprises. But there is a lag in their adoption. 
As a result farmers who first adopt methods contribut- 
ing to efficiency gain while the others are following 
up at an uneven pace. Often these gains are not so 
great as might be supposed because those who lag 
are usually the least capable or insistent in defending 
their living standards. 

Social cost would be reduced if the problem of re- 
adjusting to a change involving a major gain in effi- 
ciency could be solved by farmers, through concerted 
action. They might reduce their hours of labor or 
shift production to other lines, unaffected by the new 
technique, where consumption might be expanded. 

Long hours of labor during busy seasons is a farm 
characteristic. On diversified farms work mav be so 



arranged that llie busy season continues around the 
year with few if any vacations for the farmer or the 
housewife. 

For many other farmers i^rofitable employment 
during more days of the year is necessary if income 
is to be increased sufficiently to make higher living 
standards possible. A promising field exists here for 
science and invention to create moi-e opportunities of 
work to fit this need. 

As in the case of hours of labor, there are limits to 
avenues of escape through .shifting production. There 
are many commodities wliich are not produced in ex- 
cess in terms of consumer needs, particularly of low- 
income consumers including main' farmers. But 
farmers cannot jDroduce irrespective of price in terms 
of exchange value without going bankrupt. Depend- 
ent as they are on incomes of consumers, they cannot 
pi'oduce without respect for consumer demand. Thus 
their interest in consumers of farm products is a 
reflection of tlieir own ])lace as consumers of industrial 
and other products. If these were available to them 
at increasingly lower prices, their concern with main- 
taining historic price levels for their products would 
receive less emphasis. 

Marketing Techniques 

Motortruck transportation of farm products has 
increased rapidly. It is likely this trend will con- 
tinue. It has resulted in many changes in the com- 
parative advantages of various producing areas. It is 
discussed more fully in the chapter on transportation. 

Improvements in refrigeration have opened the way 
to improving the quality of products laid down in 
consuming centers and in reducing waste. This con- 
tribution to more efficiency in agriculture, discussed 
more fully later in this chapter, is only one of many 
which may be exjiected to contribute as much to im- 
proving utilization of products as to increasing re- 
quirements for them, with variations among commodi- 
ties. The reduction of waste, whatever its immediate 
effects may be, can deserve only encouragement in 
terms of the general welfai-e. 

Perhaps one of the most significant contributions 
to marketing has been the increase in use of grades 
and standards. Through these a common language 
for producers, middlemen, and consumers is being 
more firmly established. It encourages more emphasis 
on (juality in production; and purchases by consumei'S 
on the basis of quality factors. The farmer is also 
being enabled better to adjust his plans to the markets 
through improved techniques in market news report- 
ing. The Market News Service of the Bureau of Agri- 
cultural Economics distributes quotations on all prin- 
cipal farm products througli newspapers, the mail, and 
i-adio stations. Farmere who once were unaware of 



104 



National Resources Committee 



significant price changes for days and weeks now 
can hear them over radios within a very short time 
after they have taken place. 

Cooperation in Agriculture 

Cooperative marketing and cooperative buying are 
gaining a place of increasing significance in agricul- 
ture. This reflects, to a consider:il)le degree, advances 
in technology which have made them possible or neces- 
sary. It is probable that this trend will continue. It 
is probable that it will be extremely important in as- 
sisting the system of family farms to meet the 
challenge of new technologies. 

Cooperative ownership of farm equipment such as 
threshers, wood-sawing rigs, sorghum sirup plants, 
creameries, cheese factories, grain elevators, and ter- 
racing machinery may be expanded. Investment in 
a machine may not be justified for a single farm but 
the machine may pay its way when used on several 
farms. 

There has been a steady rise in the volume of busi- 
ness done by farmer consumer cooperatives, particu- 
larly in the purchase and distribution of production 
goods such as fertilizers, feeds, twine, gasoline, and 
oil. This trend is certain to continue. 

There has been another relatively new development — 
cooperative farm-management associations. In these, 
farmers jointly employ one or more experts to check 
their operations and to maintain cost and production 
records. Measures of labor, feed, machinery, and other 
factors are developed and from these measures are de- 
veloped programs for changing farm production plans. 
Individuals and firms are also offering similar services 
for a fee and many nonresident farm owners have 
placed their properties in the custody of these 
specialists. 

An important factor in assisting agriculture to nar- 
row the gap between the rise and use of a new tech- 
nique has been the erection of institutions. The public, 
through the land grant colleges, the United States 
and State departments of agriculture, supports scien- 
tific research and also the carrying of research residts 
to farmers. There are one or more extension workers 
in nearly every agricuhuial county. The task of 
bringing their research results to farmei-s and their 
families has resulted in the development of a vast 
field of interpretive techniques. 

Similarly the field of cooperative management has 
stimvdated the rise of principles and techniques which 
promise to increase the efficiency of cooperatives as 
operating entities. 

Corporate Organization 

Contributions of science and invention to agriculture 
are most quickly employed by farmers who are 



possessed of more than average capital. They are 
better prepared to buy a new machine or buy better 
livestock or improved seed than their poorer neighbors. 
Thus, they gain competitive advantages. In turn these 
farmers already face sterner competition from larger 
units adequately financed and employing corporate 
forms of organization. The larger unit, capable of 
supporting skilled management and specialists may, 
in some future time, provide farmers now considered 
wealthy with competition of equal or greater intensity 
than that now provided by the latter for farmers on 
undersized farms, on poor land, or handicapped by 
heavy debts and other burdens. It remains to be seen 
whether this will become a trend; tlie extremely large 
farm unit so far has not proved its capacity to weather 
the economic shocks to which agriculture has been 
subjected. 

Commercial Farming Stimulated 

The rise in technology has stimulated commerciali- 
zation in agriculture. Numerous functions have left 
the farms and are now carried on in population cen- 
ters, functions which once were an integral part of the 
farm enterprise. In only a few counties, found in 
the southern Appalachian Mountains, are self-suffic- 
ing farms more common than an_v other type. In 
1929 on most of the Nation's farms more than 80 
percent of all farm products were ''sold or traded", 
according to the census. 

On more tJian half of the farms, in 1929, conunercial 
production was valued at less than $1,000. On nearly 
one-half of the farms the aggregate value of products 
including those used by the family was valued at less 
(lian $1,000. 

The other half — those with products valued at more 
tlian $1.000 — accounted for nearly 90 percent of all 
products sold or traded in that year. The same group 
])roduced 58 percent of all products used by farm 
families. It is probable tluit this grou]i could, by 
utilizing some available technologies and with some 
increase in the area of land for tillage, produce 10 to 
11 percent more — thus accounting for all jn-oducts 
"sold or traded." 

Birth rates are highest among the half who ac- 
counted for only 10 to 11 percent of commercial pro- 
duction. Tliis group had lower cash incomes; in 
general, occupied poorer land, and employed fewer 
jiroducts of science and invention. Their children, by 
and large, have fewer educational oi:)portunities and 
more reason to leave their homes and communities to 
seek employment elsewhere. 

Technical progress in agriculture has a significant 
influence on birth rates. Technology promotes the 
division of labor and provides incentives to commer- 
cialize agriculture. Commercial experience tends to 



Technological Trends 



105 



empliasize economic considerations. A consciousness 
of economic considerations tends to sensitize jjarents 
to the economic responsibilities involved in a large 
number of dependents. Technologies, by reducing the 
need for hand labor in many types of farming, have 
also lowered the position of children as economic assets. 

Competitive Tensions Grow 

The advance of teclmologj' in agriculture has tended 
to widen tlie gap in general well-being between farm- 
ers who are able to embrace it and those who are un- 
able to utilize many of the fruits of science and in- 
vention. This gap is certain to widen. The hoe has 
not been relegated to the museum. The man with the 
hoe and the man with a tractor are not competitive 
equals where they are engaged in the same type of 
farming. 

Tliere is likely to be growth rather than relief in 
the tension created by the uneven impact of technology 
affecting large numbers of agricultural people. 

Unrestrained competition will lead toward greater 
concentration of commercial production on fewer 
farms witli an increase in the average size of these 
farms and fewer commercial farmers. This would 
mean an increase in the number of farmers with 
relatively small commercial production, swelling 
the ranks of self-sufficing farmers. This group will 
have increasing incentives for migrating to industrial 
centei's and competing thei'e for existing employment 
opportunities. These opportunities, unless increased 
as a result of greatly expanded industrial production, 
are likely to be so limited that migration would be 
possible for only a relatively small number of those 
ready and willing to leave rural areas. 

With an increase in the number of rural persons 
hemmed in by limited opportunity in both city and 
country, opposition to technological advance in agri- 
culture is likely to grow unless a means is devised to 
relieve tensions. 

Concentrations of land ownership and tenancy in 
commercial farm production are both increasing in the 
United States. Many legislative proposals have been 



advanced to check both trends. Pi'oposals to curb the 
growth of "corporation farming" have been made in 
several State legishitures. Programs for assisting 
tenants and sharecroppers to buy land have been 
offered, notably in tlie Bankhead- Jones farm tenancy 
bill before the last Congress. 

Alternative Courses of Action 

It has been said that the forces of technology cannot 
be stopped but they can be directed into more socially 
desirable channels. 

If guidance is attempted, "socially desirable goals" 
will have to be determined. And this determination 
rests upon decisions as to the character of agriculture 
that is wanted. 

Should agriculture strive for maximum efficiency in 
production with larger and larger units, more concen- 
trated ownership and management, and fewer and 
fewer farmers? 

Should it seek to support a larger population with 
small incomes, with an increase in the number of 
farms — an increase which would limit the application 
of technology ? 

Should it seek some middle ground in which the 
ideal of "family farms" is uppermost, that would 
limit, without eliminating, further technological 
advance ? 

Is there more justification for imposing a bar to 
technological advance in agriculture than in the case 
of numerous industries that have moved out of homes 
and small work shops into large factories? 

Instead of seeking to restrain technological advance 
would social ends be better served by concentrating on 
efforts to increase industrial production and employ- 
ment in the expectation that jobs would ultimately be 
available to many excess agricultural workers? 

The answers will be difficult to find and will necessi- 
tate reconciliation between many conflicting attitudes. 
The prospect of more rapid technological advances in 
coming years emphasizes the need for the early valua- 
tion of the social gains and social costs that are likely 
to arise out of each course. 



II. MECHANIZATION AND ENGINEERING 



Mechanization of agriculture depends for general 
utilization upon economic and physical feasibility. It 
is stimulated sometimes by scarcity of farm labor, at 
others by relatively high wage scales, or by the uncer- 
tainties and economic risks incident to use of transient 
labor in harvesting crops with high market value. 

The expansion of farming into new lands topo- 
graphically suited to lai-ge-scale methods of production 



^ Contribution fri'in staff of Bureau of Agricultural Engineering, U. S. 
Department of Agriculture. S. H. McCrory, Chief. 



accelerated the mechanization of American agricul- 
ture. Scarcity of labor caused by the World War 
influenced introduction of the combine east of the 
Rockies, after 40 years in use on the western slope. 
Development of the automotive and other industries in 
the North Central States reduced the migratory labor 
available for wheat harvesting to a degree that 
encoura^ged introduction of the combine there. 

Industrial developments in the Noi-thern and East- 
em States and continuation of the movement of the 




National Resources Committee 




FiGcr.E S. The oriuUe. 



FiaUEB 9. A liand-rake reaper. 





FiGORE 10. An early horse-drawn combine. 



riGiKE 11. A tractor-optM.u.i 



'^^ 





(k \ rHW 



__JJUMflB 




Figure 1:;. A pr.iirie-t.vpe combine wltii auxiliar.v motor. 



Figure 13. .\ small combine operated by power take-olf on tractor. 



Technological Trends 



107 



cotton spinning and textile industries to the South- 
eastern States caused a marked loss in rural population 
in the latter area. In Georgia the rural population 
in 1924 was 22 percent less than that in 1919. Cotton 
production and aci'eage declined steadily in tlie South- 
east, but it increased rapidly in Texas and Oklahoma 
where topography is suited to large-scale production 
and the climate is favorable to harvesting by snapping 
and stripping, which has become prevalent in that 
region in spite of the lower quality of cotton harvested 
in this manner. 

The luicertainty of transient labor was one of the 
reasons for introducing the combine into the Great 
Plains. The scarcity and unreliability of transient 
labor, and the undesirably low standard of the large 
alien portion of it, have been large factors in pro- 
moting the development of machinery for growing 
sugar beets. 

If the United States became engaged in another 
great war, adoption of a mechanical cotton hai-vester 
might be expected. The mechanical picker has reached 
a stage at which, in the face of labor scarcity, it would 
prove a very important help in harvesting cotton in 
the volume necessary for major war needs. Extensive 
use would provide opportumty for refinement in de- 
sign and lowering of cost, and for adaptation of cotton 
A-arieties to machine harvesting. This would have to 
be accompanied by further adaptations in ginning and 
cleaning equipment as have been made for the snapped 
and stripped cottons in Texas and Oklahoma. Ma- 
chine-picked cotton is inferior to hand-picked cotton 
and in view of present wage scales, mechanical har- 
vesting probably does not offer a sufficient saving in 
costs to offset the lowering in quality. 

Many mechanizations, such as for producing grade 
A whole milk and for washing spray residue from 
fruit, have been introduced to perform higlier quality, 
more satisfactory services than are practicable, or per- 
haps possible, by hand methods. The effective con- 
trol of many insect pests, weeds, and plant diseases de- 
pends in large measure upon use of mechanical devices. 

Farm Labor EflSciency 

The development in farm machinery during the past 
century has greatly increased the efficiency of farm 
workers. While the total population of the United 
States increased from 17,000,000 in 1840 to almost 
123,000,000 in 1930, the persons engaged in agricidtiu-e 
increased only from 3,720,000 to 10,480,000. In 1840, 
agricultural workers ^ comprised 77.5 percent of all 
persons gainfully employed in the United States; since 
then, the proportion has dropped steadily until in 1930 
it was only 21.5 percent. 



* All persons 10 years old and over, reported by the census as gain- 
fully employed, engaged in agriculture. 



That the income of the agricultural worker tends 
strongly to increase with increase in power and ma- 
chinery available for his use is indicated in comparing 
by States the average gross annual income, available 
power, and value of farm mechanical equipment. 
Alabama has the lowest gross income per worker, $492 
including the value of his products consumed by his 
own household, with 1.5 horsepower available and $142 
invested in machinery; Nevada shows the highest in- 
come, $2,263, with 9.5 horsepower and $739 investment. 
Montana shows the greatest horsepower per worker, 
22.5, with $953 invested in machinery, and a gross in- 
come of $1,798. North Dakota has the higjiest invest- 
ment per worker, $1,119, with 18.0 horsepower and 
$1,806 income. Fragmentary data from foreign coun- 
tries seem to indicate that throughout the world in- 
crease in amount of power available, within the limits 
observed, tends to increase the income of the agricul- 
tural worker. 

Rural Electrification 

Agriculture, although a large user of mechanical 
power, has thus far made relatively little use of 
electrical power as compared with other industries. 
In December 1935 less than 789,000, or 11.6 percent of 
American farmers, had electric power available other 
than individual lighting plants. The average con- 
sumption of central-station power per farm varied in 
1935 from 558 kilowatt-hours in West Virginia to 
11,799 kilowatt-hours in California. 

On certain types of farms electricity can be used 
in many ways to lower the cost of production or 
improve the quality of products. On dairy farms it 
can be used for milking, separating, cooling, pasteur- 
izing, sterilization of utensils, and refrigeration of 
products. On poultry farms it is used for heating 
incubators and brooders, for illuminating laying 
houses to increase egg production, and for mixing 
feed. In market gardening this power is used in 
pumping water for irrigation and for washing vege- 
tables, in heating hotbeds, and refrigeration for tem- 
porary storage of perishables. On grain and live- 
stock farms fewer jobs have been found for electric 
power, but it can be used for pumping water and for 
storing grain and hay. Where water is pumped from 
wells for irrigation of field crops, electric power is 
used extensively. More than 200 different uses of 
electricity on farms have been noted. Rural electri- 
fication has its most immediate effect in the home. 

Experience in other industries indicates that only a 
beginning has been made in adapting farm operations 
to economical use of electricity. Further research will 
make it practicable to increase greatly the farm elec- 
tric load so that this power will be very profitable to 
the user. Ultimately, there will be a considerable in- 



108 



National Resources Committee 



crease in the use of automatic and semiautomatic 
machinery for such purposes as punijjinf^ water and 
operating processing machinery; an extensive use of 
heating devices for hotbeds and stock-watering tanks; 
perhaps, air conditioning; and, possibly, substitution 
of electric for other power in field operations. Rapid 
extension of power lines to serve farms, which has 
been started under public auspices, will do much to 
stimulate progress and will make possible introduc- 
tion of many labor-saving devices in farm homes. 
The wise use of electricity in agriculture should lower 
cost of pi'oduction, improve quality of produce, 
lighten the labor of farm people, and make possible 
more comfortable living on the farm. 

Refrigeration 

The application of refrigeration to farm products 
has done much to insure that perishable farm products 
such as meat, milk, fruit, and vegetables reach the 
consiuner in good condition, and has made possible 
many improvements in diets. Refrigerator cars and 
refrigerated trucks provide even the smallest and most 
remote towns with dependable supplies of fresh meats. 
Fruits and vegetables can be shipped across the con- 
tinent and reach the consumer in perfect condition. 
Refrigeration in transportation has permitted shift 
of the production of perishables away from the locali- 
ties of consumption to the regions best suited for 
growing them. 

Household lofrigcrators have been greatly improved 
through mechanical operation until thej' can safely 
store perishables for considerable periods. Extension 
of electric power in rural areas will make this facil- 
ity possible in many homes not now satisfactorily 
equipped. Gas or kerosene refrigerators can be used 
where electric power is not available. Experiments 
with conununity storage houses in which units of dif- 
ferent sizes have been held at agreed temperatures have 
given indication that such storages would fill a need 
and be prolitable in many communities, particularly 
in warm climates. 

Researcii is needed to develop small, low-cost refrig- 
erated storages for farmers and small cooperatives, 
and to work out improved methods of storing perish- 
able products on the farm, so that surpluses of certain 
conunodities can be held longer and a better distribu- 
tion be obtained. 

Farm Buildings 

Changes in building types take place slowly because 
of the long life of well-built structures. In New Eng- 
land, for instance, the majority of farm dwellings 
were built more than 50 years ago and a great many 
more than 100 years ago. 



In recent years farm buildings have depreciated 
greatly in value both througli deterioration in phys- 
ical value, partly the result of depi'essed farm in- 
comes, and through obsolescence. The farm housing 
survey of 1934 showed about half of the farmhouses 
needed major repairs or replacement, with the other 
buildings in about the same condition. Changes in 
farming methods and in farm production have modi- 
fied the requirements for buildings, and adoption of 
automotive machinery in place of animal power, on the 
farm and in the city, has reduced the shelter and feed 
storage needed for work stock. 

A program of readjustment is needed that will take 
advantage of new or improved methods in farm-build- 
ing design and construction and of researches in farm- 
stead planning. Studies have developed arrange- 
ments more economical of labor in caring for live- 
stock, and including accommodations for such equip- 
ment as feed grinders and litter carriers. The bal- 
loon type of barn framing has been developed as more 
economical than the heavy frames of early days. Con- 
crete foundations and floors instead of the old log 
foundations and the pole and plank flooi"S, and con- 
crete walks, feeding floors, dipping vats, and other 
structures have permitted better sanitary conditions 
and thus contributed largely to more healthful milk 
supplies for city as well as for country people. Con- 
struction methods providing greater safety against 
fire and storm, and better protection against weather, 
have been developed. 

Use of insulating material on farms is comparatively 
new but is rapidly being accepted. A better under- 
standing of ventilation, moisture control, air condition- 
ing, and lighting requirements may be expected to 
bring about changes in building design that will pro- 
vide greater comfort for man and beast and improved 
quality in stored products. 

Much i^rogress has been made since the day of the 
pioneer whose large family was housed in a log cabin 
lighted by candles, heated bj* open fireplaces which 
also served for cooking, and supplied with water from 
the old oaken bucket. Yet the farm housing sur- 
vey showed that only about 15 percent of the farms 
have the safety and convenience of electricity; 27 per- 
cent have kitchen sinlvs and drains; 17 percent have 
cold water piped into the house ; 8 percent have piped 
hot water; 9 percent have flush toilets; 8 percent have 
furnace heat ; and 4 percent have gas or electricity 
for cooking. 

Reclamation of Wet and of Arid Lands 

Drainage. — Technology has developed the equipment 
and methods for building the drains which have con- 



Technological Trends 

verted more than 50 million acres of swampland into 
farms. Studies of run-off and of hydraulics have 
determined the drainage requirements of such areas 
and the fundamentals of designing the drainage 
works. The 1930 Census reported more than 84 
million acres in organized drainage enterprises. The 
States of Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, and Iowa rank high 
both in extent of drainage improvements constructed 
and in agricultural development. Where community 
drainage enterprises are operating, farm lands as a 
rule are highly developed. 

The drainage work thus far undertaken has re- 
claimed those lands most easily occupied. There are 
yet in the United States some GO million acres of vary- 
ing degrees of fertility that when needed can be made 
available for agriculture by drainage. But the cost 
of doing this will be much higher than that for the 
land already drained because of unfavorable loca- 
tion, heavy timber cover, or other disability. In their 
present condition these lands are valuable for grazing 
livestock, sheltering wild life, or growing timber. 
When increasing markets, deterioration of hill lands, 
or other conditions make it desirable, these areas can 
be drained and brought into cultivation. 

Underdrainage has been profitable to farmers, but 
in the past decade little of such work has been done 
because of low farm incomes and the extended period 
of scanty precipitation. There are indications that 
with return of normal conditions use of underdrains 
will greatly increase, and that they will become com- 
mon in many sections where now comparatively 
unknown. 

Irrigation. — Only through application of develop- 
ments in construction machinery and materials has it 
been possible to bring water to a large part of the 
19,500,000 acres irrigated in the United States in 1930, 
upon whicli is so largely based the agriculture of a 
great portion of the West. The huge dams, canals, 
tunnels, flumes, and siphons could have been neither 
built nor designed without engineering technique, and 
expansion of the productive acreage sufficiently to 
pay the cost has required further technology. 

The supply of water available for irrigation in some 
sections has been fully utilized, although with complete 
economy in very few localities. Studies of water re- 
quirements of crops and of methods of applying the 
water are gradually bringing about correction of 
wasteful use. While irrigation is as old as the Pyra- 
mids, only recently have devices been perfected for 
accurate measurement of flowing water. This achieve- 
ment has made possible detailed studies of the use 
of water by crops, losses of water in transit, and waste 
of water from fields and from canals. It has resulted 



109 

also in more equitable apportionment of limited water 
supplies to users, thus eliminating one of the chief 
causes of friction in irrigated areas. 

Areas that can be irrigated cheaply by direct diver- 
sion of water from streams have been almost com- 
pletely occupied. Any large areas yet to be brought 
under irrigation nnist be supplied with pumped or 
stored water. Creation of storages for this usually 
must be c()ui)led with development of power if the 
cost of obtaining water is not to be greater than the 
value of the crops that can be grown with it. Never- 
theless, indications are that for several decades the 
area irrigated will continue to increase, until the prac- 
tically available water supply is wholly utilized. 

Far more effective utilization of waters available for 
irrigation than has been possible heretofore is being 
promoted by the niaking of snow surveys high in the 
mountains from which streams flow, in the arid region. 
Irrigation water-supply forecasts based upon measure- 
ments of the water in the snow cover enable the farm- 
ers to plan their cropping programs so as to get the 
greatest return from the water that will be available, 
and permit economical regulation of releases from 
reservoirs. 

Pumping from wells to supplement other water sup- 
plies will increase in importance in many of the older, 
highly developed sections. Expansion of the area so 
irrigated is encouraged by improvements in pumping 
equipment, extension of electric power lines, and 
cheapening of fuel costs. In many areas the drafts 
upon the underground waters are seriously depleting 
that supplj'. Studies of means to increase natural re- 
charge by spreading floodwaters upon poi'ous tracts 
have met with sufficient success in southern California 
to encourage ambitious attempts of the same kind in 
other sections of the West. 

Irrigation agriculture, within the available water 
supply, escapes the greatest hazard of farming in a 
large part of the United States. Federal irrigation 
promotion was undertaken primarily to make public 
lands usable and to foster development of sparsely 
settled western States. The excessive drought of 1934 
stimulated migration from the semiarid region to 
localities where irrigation is the regular practice. 
Settlement upon unoccupied fertile lands in irrigation 
enterprises seems to offer aid in the relocation of peo- 
jjle from drought-stricken and wind-eroded areas, and 
would promote the prosperity of communities that lack 
farmers to utilize the irrigation facilities available. 

In the humid States there probably will be some ex- 
tension of irrigation for truck crops, fruit crops, and 
citrus, and probably for other high-priced crops such 
as hybrid seed corn and nursery stocks. 



no 



National Resources Committee 
III. PLANT BREEDING AND IMPROVEMENT^ 



Plant breeding and improvement is technology of 
a character which has had and will continue to have a 
signilicant bearing on processes ali'ecting all agricul- 
ture. Research covers many fields, including plant 
production, plant utilization, and sciences related to 
them. The range of activities covers practically all 
plants, wild and cultivated, for which man has found 
a use as food, clothing and fiber, drugs and medicines 
for man, or poisons and repellents for insects and 
diseases. 

Improvement in Varieties of Spring ^YTieat 

During the last -'iO years extensive efforts have been 
made to evolve iinj:)roved varieties of wheat for the 
northern Great Plains. In 1919 a stem-rust resistant 
\-ariet}^ was distributed to farmers, but proved un- 
satisfactory because of weak straw and susceptibility 
to leaf rust, loose smut, and bunt. It served a useful 
purpose, however, as one pai'ent of Ceres, a variety 
distributed in 1926 which has shown great resistance 
to both rust and drought. In 1935 approximately 
5,000,000 acres were grown. Ceres, and Mariiuis, which 
was introduced from Canada in 1912 and 1913, are 
now responsible for an estimated annual increase of 
50 to 55 million bushels over the crop that might have 
been produced on the same acreage with the varieties 
available 25 to 30 years ago. A new variety, Thatcher — 
distributed in 193-i^is expected further to reduce losses 
from stem rust in western Minnesota and the eastern 
Dakotas. 

Varieties of Wheat Resistant to Bunt 

Bunt, or stinking smut, takes an amiual toll of 
millions of dollars from wheat farmei-s all over the 
country. In recent years this disease has been in- 
creasing. This disease can be controlled by seed 
treatment, except in the Pacific Northwest where the 
organism that causes the disease lives over in the 
soil. The only remedy there, it seems, is to develop 
resistant varieties of wheat. 

The breeding of such varieties in the past has been 
complicated by the fact tliat there are several races 
of bunt. A particular variety of wheat might resist 
one or more races of bimt but succumb to others. 
In recent years a number of varieties of wheat 
that are resistant to a considerable number of races 
of bunt have been discovered or produced by scien- 
tific breeding. The result may be a material reduction 
in one of the hazards of wheat growing, with a con- 
sequent increase in the security of the farmer and a 
decrease in his costs of production. 



'' This section was prepared under the direction of S. C. Salmon, 
Bureau of Plant Industry, U. S. Department of .\grioulture. 



Hybrid Corn 

Extensive field-j)lc)t tests in the Corn Belt indicate 
beyond reasonable iloubt that materially better yields 
can be expected from the use of hybrid seed than is 
otherwise possible. This increase for the better hy- 
brids is as much as 20 percent for a considerable part 
of the area under consideration. The plants of most 
of these hybrids remain erect decidedly better than 
ordinary corn, a factor of great importance where 
mechanical pickers are used. Also some of them are 
more resistant to diseases and insects of various kinds, 
including the chinch bug, European corn borer, and 
the corn ear worm. 

On the other hand, no satisfactory hybrids have 
as j'et been produced for cei'tain portions of the Corn 
Belt, particularly the southern fringe. On poor soils 
and in areas of deficient rainfall whore yields are 
uncertain, the use of hybrid seed may not justify the 
extra expense. Where corn has come to be tlie main 
source of income, however, the extra expense and 
trouble involved in production of hybrid seed is meet- 
ing little resistance. When liybrid corn comes to be 
widely used, the average farmer jirobably will buy seed 
each year rather than try to produce his own. 

In recent years the supply of hybrid seed has about 
doubled each season. Even so. the demand in the 
Corn Belt has far exceeded the supply. At tlie present 
rate of increase there will be 12 to 15 million acres of 
hybrid corn in 1940 yielding, it is estimated, an aver- 
age of 35 bushels an acre, or an increase of about 15 
percent over present yields. If this development leads 
to a reduction in acreage, as is thought pi'obable, farm 
labor in the Coi'ii Belt will undoubtedly be affected. 

The Rice Industry in California 

Rice growing in the Sacramento and San Joaquin 
Valleys of California is an example of a new industry 
developed largely as a result of experimentation. 
Prior to the inception of research work at Biggs, Cal- 
ifornia, in 1912, no rice of consequence was grown in 
these valleys. At present, above 125,000 acres are 
annually devoted to this crop. With average yields 
of 50 to 60 bushels an acre, the yearly output is now 
valued at 6 to 7 million dollars. 

The Weed Fallow for Tobacco 

It is a unique outcome when an apparently careless 
and slip-shod method of growing a crop turns out to be 
the most profitable. This is about what has happened 
in tobacco growing. It has been known for many 
years that under a system of farming in which to- 
bacco is grown in rotation with other crops, better 
returns are obtained, with certain exceptions, than 



Technological Trends 



111 



from an equal acreage planted to tobacco year after 
year. It is also well known that some rotations are 
better than others. Recently, however, it has been 
shown that a weed fallow, that is, land that has been 
permitted to lie fallow with no cultivation whatever 
and with such weeds as will naturally grow, produces 
a better return per acre than can be produced by the 
best rotation with a cultivated crop. The yield is 
better than might be expected, but the principal gain 
lies in the superior quality of the tobacco. The in- 
ci'ease in the value of the crop may be as much as $200 
or $250 an acre. 

Curly Top Disease of Sugar Beets 

West of the Rocky Mountains the sugar beet is sub- 
ject to a disease known as curly top. It is a virus 
disease, known since 1897 and transmitted by the 
beet leafhopper whicli breeds on weed plants of the 
desert lands adjoining beet-producing areas. When 
the weeds dry up in the spring the leafhoppers migrate 
to the beets. Half or more of the plants may be 
infected by midseason, and by late summer or early 
autumn the infection has occasionally spread to the 
entire crop. During the last two decades the disease 
has become so serious that it is now recognized as the 
chief limiting factor to sugar-beet production west 
of the Rocky Mountains. In 1926 and again in 1929 
losses to growers were estimated at from $10,000,000 
to $15,000,000. 

In 1929, Congress, taking special notice of tliis 
threat to a large farming area, made an appropriation 
for special study. As a result, varieties of sugar beets 
resistant to curly top have been produced and a beet- 
seed industry has been developed in the United States. 
Until recently commercial beet growers in this coun- 
try had to import their seed fi"om Europe. By care- 
ful selection and breeding, resistant varieties have now 
been developed ; a new industry for the United States, 
the ])roduction of sugar-beet seed, is now firmly 
established. 

Improving the Quality of Cotton 

About 25 years ago the Bureau of Plant Industry 
of the United States Department of Agriculture 
undertook an extensive research program designed to 
improve the quality of the American cotton crop. 
Several factors, up to that time, had contributed to 
its progressive decline. In concentrating on early 
maturing varieties — in order to escape the ravages of 
the boll weevil — cotton growers had rather consist- 
entl}^ sacrificed quality of fiber. In many communities 
several varieties of cotton were planted in adjacent 
fields, resulting in cross-pollination and mongrelizing 
of good and bad varieties. Moreover, the gradual de- 
pletion of soil resources tended to encourage a general 



decline in quality. For more than 20 years experi- 
ments have been carried forward, resulting in suiwrior 
varieties of early maturing cotton where early ma- 
turity is a highly desirable quality. 

Along with these improvements from the point of 
view of quality has gone the development of the single- 
variety community plan for keeping the varieties pure 
and producing cotton of su])erior quality in large even 
running lots readily available to manufacturers and 
foreign markets. 

Mosaic-Resistant Sugarcane 

The history of sugarcane production in the southern 
United States illustrates in a striking way what can 
happen to any crop that is grown intensively. About 
1908 there began a more or less gradual decline in 
acreage planted to sugarcane, and a reduction in total 
output as well as in the output per acre. The prin- 
cipal features of the decline are illustrated in figure 1. 
Large areas of the best alluvial lands of the Missis- 
sijipi delta, to say nothing of other less productive 
areas, remained idle and grew up in weeds. Many 
factories there were closed and many of the small 
farms and large plantations were foreclosed. 

Several factors contributed to the disastrous decline 
in production and yields such as, for example, occa- 
sional plant diseases. Root rots and red rot had long 
been recognized as important yield-limiting factors, 
but the disease situation was not regarded as partic- 
ularly serious until the discovery of a mosaic disease 
in 1919. This was soon shown to be a virus disease 
and to be transmitted from diseased to healthy plants 
by the corn aphid. Numerous grasses occurring as 
weeds in sugarcane fields served not only as hosts for 
the aphids, but were also susceptible to the disease. 
Moreover, it was shown that the aphids were carried 
long distances by the wind. From these facts it 
seemed evident that control could not be effected 
through the means of seed-cane selection and roguing. 

Continued investigation revealed considerable varia- 
tion in the severity of the disease in susceptible va- 
rieties, and a few were found to be immune. One of 
the latter, known as Cayana, though unsuited for 
sugar production, found innnediate utilization in 
Georgia, Florida, Alabama, and Mississippi for sirup 
production. 

Many varieties of sugarcane were imported from 
foreign countries and tested by the Department of 
Agriculture. Some possessed suflBcient tolerance to 
mosaic and other diseases to justify their use in Loui- 
siana and were distributed in 1921 and 192.5. As a re- 
sult of these introductions the average yield for the 
Louisiana crop increased from the low figure of 6.8 
tons per acre in 1926 to 16.2 tons in 1938, and 18.8 
tons in 1929. Still other improved varieties, including 



112 



National Resources Committee 



four bred by the Department, were distributed dur- 
ing the period 1930 to 1935. 

As indicated in figure 14, (he industry seems defi- 
nitely on the way to recovery. 

Recent Advances in Horticulture 

As a result of crossing two varieties of tomatoes in 
1917, a selection was made which was introduced about 
1925 under the name Marglobe. This variety, because 
of its high resistance to Fusarium wilt and to nail- 
head rust, has done much to save the tomato industry 
of Florida and other winter-garden areas. 

Cabbage j-ellows is a serious disease which affects 
the cabbage crop from Long Island to Colorado. The 
disease is caused by a fungus that persists in the soil. 
In 1910 two cabbage plants were selected that had sur- 
vived the vellows disease on a badlv infested field. 




Boe O ■» IB 22 W 30 34 35 

Figure 14. Because of the combined damage from mosaic, red rot, ami 
root diseases of the cane, the Louisiana sugar industry suffered a 
long period of declining yields culminating in virtual bankruptcy in 
1020 and I'Jl;". Introduction of resistant varieties has restored the 
Industry, and promises stabilization of production on higher per acre 
levels following application of the results of further research by the 
department and cooperating State agencies. 



From these, a variety of cabbage strongly resistant to 
this particular disease has been developed over the 
years. 

Lettuce is subject to two diseases known as brown 
blight and lettuce mildew. Through scientific breed- 
ing, highly resistant varieties have been developed, re- 
sulting in a saving of many millions of dollars to the 
farmers in the Southwest. 

And so with other plants. Resistant varieties are 
constantly being sought out and cultivated with great 
care, and at the same time a relentless war is being 
waged against disease and pests. 

Soybeans in the Corn Belt 

Oialy about 5,000,000 bushels of soybeans were pro- 
duced in the L'nited States in 1925 while 10 years later 
prutluction was in excess of 39,000,000 bushels — a good 
example of what can happen as a result of constant 
research and impro\-emciit. 

The crop was introduced into this country more than 
125 years ago, but was never considered more than a 
forage or feed crop until after the "World War. The 
development of new varieties suited for growing in 
particular areas, and for particular purposes, has been 
an outstaiiding feature of the rapid increase in the 
crop. Kecugnition of the value of the crop in dry sea- 
sons, immunity to chinch-bug injury, and the in- 
creased demand for the crop for industrial and food 
purposes have been important contributing factors. 

Until recently the industrial outlet for soybeans was 
limited. But in the last few years new uses have been 
found, as in the manufacture of paints, enamels, var- 
nishes, lard and butter substitutes, linoleum, oilcloth, 
insecticides, lecithin, disinfectants, core oil, soap, 
printers ink, medicinal oil, and waterproof goods. 
Production of soybeans is now a stable and important 
industry. 



IV. TRENDS IN ANIMAL TECHNOLOGY' 



Our domestic farm animals represent millions of 
highly adaptable factories for the conversit)n of v&w 
materials into food, fiber, or power. Both as factories 
and as storehouses they tend to stabilize the land's 
production through the seasons and through years of 
highly fluctuating production. 

The purpose of Federal, State, and nongovernmental 
forces engaged in animal technology effoi-ts is to aid, 
through research, professional advice or law enforce- 
ment, in the fulfillment of livestock's greatest useful- 
ness. It is a constantly changing field in which man's 
increasing fund of knowledge widens the possibilities. 



'This section was prepared by Paul E. Howe. Principal Chemist, and 
William Jaclison, Associate .Vninial Husbandman, Bureau of Animal 
Industry. U. S. Department of Agriculture. 



presents new theories and problems for solution, and 
renders the future difficult of prediction. 

The trend is toward greater adaptability of live- 
stock to trying environmental conditions and to man's 
needs, better utilization of feeds, increased vigilance 
and skill in prevention of parasite and disease losses, 
and marked progress toward eradication of the most 
serious infections from our herds and flocks. The 
result should be to open new areas to livestock produc- 
tion, to increase the chances for success with livestock 
in all areas, and to contribute directly and indirectly 
to human health. 

On the other hand many advances in technology in 
all producing units of the livestock industry seem to be 
favorable to a trend toward concentration of produc- 



Technological Trends 



113 



tion and commei'cialization. Strains of animals bred 
for high efficiencj- require intelligence, appreciation, 
and care in their use as breeding stock if their use is 
to be profitable, for they cost more to produce than 
inferior or unproved stock. Carefully planned rations 
must be fed to make the greatest use of the animals' 
iiilieritance. The greater drain on the animals' con- 
stitutions resulting from high production calls for 
double precaution in feeding and management or the 
result may be greater susceptibility to disease. 

The producer who can succeed in breeding eificiency 
into his flock or herd will have a tremendous advantage 
over the one who does not. Registered Sliorthorn 
steers in controlled experiments have required as few 
as 373 days and as many as 566 days to reach a live 
weight of 900 pounds — a difference of more than 50 
percent. Similar differences have been found among 
swine and probably exist among sheep. The average 
hen in flocks of this country produces only about 80 
eggs a year according to census estimates, wliile super- 
ior flocks of progeny-tested birds produce more than 
200 eggs a year. Neither geneticists nor practical 
breeders have found a way to reproduce efficiency with- 
out fail, but the possibilities in that direction are in- 
creasing, as shown by many encouraging results, par- 
ticularly with poultry, dairy cattle, and swine. 

The production and proving of superior germ plasm 
in farm animals is expensive, and will probably con- 
tinue to be for decades to come. This also tends to 
concentrate superior stock and to encourage larger 
production units under highly skilled management. 
But a number of eventualities may result in discourag- 
ing concentration of production, and aid the smaller 
l^roducer. 

One of these is the development of breeding farms 
from which will be distributed superior germ plasm, 
possibly by mail, in capsules. Howevei", such a pos- 
sibility will, in itself, mean a highly specialized con- 
centration of superior breeding stock on a few farms 
producing such germ plasm. It is also possible that 
the larger jjroducers will make most of such a 
development. 

Another effect toward decentralization of produc- 
tion is to be found in breeding studies to develop types 
of animals suited to regions of harsh enviromnent, 
and in nutrition studies to find correctives for mineral 
and vitamin deficiencies of the pasturage, crops, or 
water of deficient regions. An example of the first 
is the work being done by both public and private 
exioerimenters in ciossing the Guzerat and Africander 
breeds of cattle with our beef breeds of British origin 
to develop strains of cattle better adapted than we 
now have to trying conditions of heat, sparse vegeta- 
tion, and insect and parasite menace in the South and 
Southwest. Examples of the second are studies of 



rations that will compensate for iron deficiency in 
grazing areas in Florida ; phosphorus deficiency in the 
coastal plains region and the Southwest; iodine de- 
ficiency in the goiter regions of the Northwest; and 
studies of protein, mineral, and vitamin content of 
forage and harvested crops at various stages of im- 
maturity and under advanced methods of preservation 
and handling. 

A third trend seemingly inimical to great concentra- 
tion is found in the greater possibilities of infection 
when animals are crowded. Both concentration and 
unlimited forcing of domestic animals and poultry 
for higher efficiency make it difficult to nuiintain vigor 
in breeding herds and flocks. Despite improvements 
in feeding and sanitation practice with swine during 
the last two decades, the best available information 
shows that there has been but little change in the 
average number of pigs weaned per litter. Advances 
by progressive farmers have apparently been counter- 
balanced by recessions among careless farmers. 

A study of a group of Illinois farms where the 
McLean Comity system of swine sanitation was fol- 
lowed showed 5.8 pigs weaned per litter as compared 
with 5.4 pigs per litter on farms practicing no especial 
precautions. There was also a saving of feed amount- 
ing to Xy^ bushels of corn per pig fed to market 
weight in favor of practicing sanitation. There is 
evidence that the McLean County system or some 
modification of it, and tlie greater use of pasturage 
have been adopted by swine growers in many sections 
of the country. In general, pigs raised under the 
sanitation system develop more rapidly and have a 
greater market value at a given age. And when the 
system is followed closely, as many pigs can be weaned 
and raised from two sows as from three under ordinary 
methods of swine management. 

Although parasites of livestock are widespread in 
practically all sections, economic loss from them is in- 
tensified in the South for such reasons as a favorable 
climate, an abundance of moisture, and tlie presence 
of insect intermediate hosts favorable to their multipli- 
cation and spread. In the ordinary run of hogs raised 
in the South, kidney-worm infestation is widespread. 

From 85 to 90 percent of the livers and about 90 
percent of the kidneys are infested. Such worms re- 
duce the host animal to a state of unthriftiness charac- 
terized by stunted growth, appearance of malnutrition, 
and a predisposition to disease because of lowered 
vitality. Research has developed a method of kidney- 
worm control whereby these losses can be sharply cur- 
tailed and can be eliminated eventually if the control 
measures are followed explicitly. 

Nation-wide efforts to eliminate altogether the pres- 
ence of some of the worst livestock scourges are meet- 
ing with gratifying success. Ninety-one percent of 



114 



National Resources Committee 



the original cattle-tick quarantined area of over 700.- 
000 square miles has been freed of ticks and released 
from quarantine in the 29 years since the campaign 
of eradication began, and the infested areas have been 
reduced to a total of 62 counties and G parts of 
counties in 3 States from the beginning of 985 infested 
counties in 15 States. 

The degree of infection of tuberculosis among cattle 
has been reduced from approximately 4 percent in 
1922 to less than one-half of 1 percent, with all the 
counties of 40 States now in the modified-accredited 
area. The fight against Bang's disease, or infectious 
abortion, is just getting well under way in this coun- 
try, with about 700,000 head of cattle being tested each 
month, on a voluntary- basis, and an indicated infec- 
tion for the entire country of from 13 to 15 percent. 

A number of diseases and parasites of animals such 
as anthrax and certain species of hookworms are di- 
rect menaces to human health. Beef and pork tape- 
worms are acquii'cd by humans as a result of eating 
raw or improperly cooked beef and pork, respectively. 
Creeping eruption, a painful and troublesome skin 
disease of man in certain parts of the South, is due 
to the invasion of the human skin by larvae of species 
of hookworm parasitic in dogs and cats. Control 
measures developed in recent years have helped to cut 
down such incidence of infestation of man. Quaran- 
tine measures, at our ports of entry from foreign 
countries, and inspections at public stockyards, are aid- 
ing in the prevention of outbreaks that can be of 
serious social consequence. 

Man's constant effort to increase the output of his 
animals, and particularly the tendency in some 
branches of the industry to concentrate in large pro- 
duction units, is bringing new problems in disease and 
parasite prevention and control. For example we 
have the "poultry factory", with thousands of breed- 
ing, hatching, brooding, laying, and fattening units 
in close confinement under one roof. As an outgrowth 
of the development of artificial incubation and brood- 
ing which began about 30 years ago, fully 700 million. 
or nearly half of the chicks hatched annually, today 
are produced by commercial hatcheries. An increas- 
ing percentage of these are being raised in inidti- 
storied liouses or similar close confinement, without 
access to sunlight or free range; in air-conditioned 
rooms kept at even temperature, and lighted by red 
bulbs, for chicks, to jjrevent cannibalism; with vita- 
min, mineral, and protein supplements provided to 
offset the absence of sunlight and diet deficiencies due 
to confinement ; and with segregation of adult birds 
from one another and from the droppings, and 
periodic sterilization of the cages with live steam to 
avoid losses from diseases or parasites. 



A new development is the possibility of detei'mining 
the gex of chicks when hatched, permitting a further 
specialization. About 70 percent of the Leghorn 
chicks hatched this year on the Pacific Coast were 
sexed, and a considerable percentage of the cockerels 
killed at once. The man who is in the poultry business 
for egg production only can now purchase day-old 
pullet chicks, enabling him twice the number of pullets 
with the same expenditure of feed and labor, and with 
the same equi]iment. The sexing of day-old chicks in 
the Middle AVest is already acting to stimulate com- 
mercial broiler production, which will likely in turn, 
affect the production of roasting chickens. 

A study of data from all parts of the United States 
shows a tendency for pullets and hens that are being 
forced for egg i)roduction to be much more susceptible 
to disease. Kecords from 1928 to 1933 on 126 farms 
in San Bernardino County, Calif., averaging 956 hens 
per farm, show an uninterrupted increase in laying- 
hen mortality from 19.49 per cent in 1928 to 38.9 per- 
cent in 1933. Records of mortality among pullets aJid 
hens in egg-laying contests show an increase of from 
11.5 to 1().3 percent in 7 years in Connecticut; of 
from 13.2 percent in 1921-25 to 55.5 percent in 1929- 
32 in Ohio; of from 14.0 to 26.6 percent in 9 years in 
Georgia; and fi"om 6.58 to 24.77 j^ercent in 14 j-ears 
in Xew Jersey. 

Studies of the causes of these losses show that dis- 
ease is the most important, and that diseases of the 
egg-laying function of the bird are the most prevalent 
of all diseases. The underlying causes are greater 
(jpl)ortunity for spread of infection when animals are 
concentrated in small space and failure of advances in 
technology to compensate for the forcing for produc- 
tion under conditions of unnatural environment. Both 
of these causes seem correctable. The uncertain quan- 
tities are man's ability to make full use of his own. 
technological advancement, and his willingness to do 
so. There is a point bej'ond which precautions cost 
more than they are worth ; and men are careless. 

Much progress in animal product technology has 
taken place. New uses have been found for animal 
jiroducts and valuable guides have been developed to 
im])rove ]>roduction practice. A recently invented de- 
vice for determining wool fineness and cross-sectional 
variability has been found useful also in the cotton, 
silk, and rayon industries. It promises to do much 
toward coordinating the aims of the producers of fibers 
with the needs of the manufacturers and the users of 
the finished fabrics. Human medicine has developed 
some amazing uses for animal glands and gland ex- 
tracts: the pancreas to supply insulin for treating 
tliabetes, the adrenals to sujiply cortin for treating 
Addison's disease, the parathyroid to supply para- 
thormone for treating abnormal calcium metabolism, 



Technological Trends 



115 



the anterior pituitary or its extract for treating \ari- 
ous sexual disorders and use in gynecology. Meats 
and meat-food products have been cured, processed, 
and merchandised in u great variety of more useful 
and more attractive ways, and recently the widespread 
extension of the use of subfreczing temperatures for 
the storage of fresh meats promises a new means of 
storing surpluses for times of scarcity, and of tlie use 
of fresh moats in all parts of the country at all times 
of the year. 

Summing up, it is probably fair to say that the time 
is decades distant when technology will give man a 
sure command of the production of livestock for spe- 
cialized purpose and to fit specialized agricultural 
conditions, such as he enjoys with many plant crops 
and with mechanical inventions. Aninuil germ plasm 
and behavior are less amenable to man's genius and 
will than are plants and machiiies. But it is possible 
that the many problems yet to be solved in animal 
technology obscure the fact of current progress. 

The geneticist and his ally, the experimental breeder, 
have produced livestock and poultry of great practical 



efficiency, and the nutrition specialist has cooperated 
to develop means of making meat, milk, and eggs of 
especial usefulness for food. 

This country is freer of serious livestock pests than 
most countries, and is making greater progress toward 
a clean bill of livestock health than ])erhaps any other. 
The livestock quarantine and meat-inspection services 
are unexcelled anywliere in their service to both 
pnxlucers and consumers of livestock and livestock 
products. 

Our civilization, like our animal husbandry, is highly 
artificial, and might decline rapidly without the con- 
slant application of research to tlie problems that are 
arising. Without the aid and protection afforded by 
science, disease would speedily result, in all likelihood, 
not only in a decline in the production of meat and 
milk and other animal products, but also in a decline 
in human population, particularly in cities. 

Health and security are major objectives of the 
human race. Domestic animals and their products, 
with the benefit of jnan's research and technology, 
seem to offer increasing aid toward those objectives. 



V. INSECT PESTS AND THEIR CONTROL 



Insect pests affect man's every activity. They de- 
stroy his food plants, his livestock, his clothing, his 
buildings, and indirectly through insect-borne disease, 
affect man himself. In the United States alone the 
annual tax paid to insect pests attacking agricultural 
crops and livestock often amounts to over 2 billion 
dollars. The cotton boll weevil, for example, destroys 
an average of nearly 2 million bales of cotton every 
year; the hessian fly takes an average annual toll of 
48 million bushels of wheat. 

Scope of Insect Control Work 

The most conservative estimates give the number of 
insects as about 4,500,000, of which only 750,000 have 
been described. Not all of these are detrimental to 
man. Some, such as the honeybee and those which 
prey on other insects, are beneficial. The destructive 
and annoying kinds number hundreds of thousands, 
however. 

More than 7,000 species cause economic losses to 
crops in the United States. The habits and hosts of 
tiiese all differ and controls vary with the kind of pest, 
region, and crop. The methods emjjloyed include the 
use of natural enemies, the adaptation of modifica- 
tions in crop practices, the detei-mination of tolerant 
or resistant varieties of crops, the use of meclianical 
devices, the use of poisons, attractants and repellents — 
in fact any device, material or agency wliich can be 



' Prepared by the Bureau of Entomology and Plant Quarantine. 
D. S. Department of Agriculture. Lee A. Strong, Chief. 



economically applied. In the use of insecticides alone 
developments in economic entomology have brought 
the control of insect pests from hand-picking and the 
sprinkling of a simple insecticide with a whiskbroom 
to the high-powered sprayers that reach the highest 
shade trees and the permanently installed spraying 
equipment by which several hundred acres of orchards 
can be treated from a central siJray plant, and the 
airplane duster that can cover several cotton planta- 
tions in one day. 

The field of insect control is very broad. It re- 
quires an extensive and specialized technique and the 
use of detailed knowledge in many fields of endeavor 
and science. To coordinate and use these effectively 
to a common end requires detailed planning. There 
is the intricate technique of rearing the insect to de- 
termine its habits, responses, and hosts; the develop- 
ment of ways of producing insect parasites under 
artificial conditions, of transporting these parasites 
sometimes half way around the earth, of cultivating 
these insects as pure cultures, and of successfully in- 
troducing tliem to the field. The work on bee culture 
requires specialized technique in handling the bees, 
in studying honey quality, wax production, and the 
artificial insemination of queens to produce improved 
varieties. The devising of mechanical and chemical 
ways af combating insect pests, such as the develop- 
ment of practical traps or new insecticides; improving 
and adapting spraying and dusting equipment to 
special agricultural practices and insect conditions; 



116 



National Resources Covimittee 



devising fumigation tanks, steam sterilizers, refrigera- 
tion plants, and other devices for treating plants and 
plant products to free them of insect pests at the 
ports of entry in order that their introduction may 
not serve as a means of establishing in this country 
noxious pests from foreign lands involves the use of 
highly specialized technique. 

Even brief description of the steps involved in 
developing various methods and planning operations 
for the control of insect pests would require many 
pages. Such a discussion would include reference to 
the principles involved and the techni(iue used in the 
development of methods and programs; an explana- 
tion of the mechanics in making results available for 
application by individuals and governmental agencies. 

The control of insect pests is increasing in com- 
plexity. The achievements of the past give assurance 
of future developments to meet ever-changing condi- 
tions. The constant development and change in agri- 
culture and improvement of public health accom- 
panied by the ever-increasing insect consciousness 
contribute to the complexity of the problem of insect 
control. The placing of large areas under cultivation 
and erecting cities and towns have contributed to mak- 



ing favorable environments for insects which in earlier 
times were of little importance. The rapid develop- 
ment of methods of transportation materially in- 
creased the opportunities for dangerous pests being 
transported to new areas. 

The vision of the entomologist is being modified to 
meet these changing conditions. Lines of investiga- 
tion little thought of in the early days are under way 
and basic studies on eviroimiental influences have been 
begun. That the work on insecticides will develop 
materials effective against insects attacking food prod- 
ucts without leaving residues hazardous to the con- 
simier seems only a matter of time. Who can say that 
more intimate knowledge of the enviromnent favor- 
able to grasshoppers will not permit some slight 
adjustment such as the elimination of some plants 
favorable in the development of grasshoppers which 
are of little importance as crops that will prevent 
general outbreaks of these pests. 

Full understanding of the effect of radiations on 
insects nuvy lead to the development of controls for 
many pests of households and storages without re- 
sorting to control measures now used requiring the 
application of powerful gases with accompanying 
health hazard. 



VI. WEATHER AND FORECASTS' 



Weather Forecasting 

Weather forecasting, as now practiced by most civi- 
lized governments, is of enormous and increasing value 
to mankind. Great efforts are in progress in America 
and elsewhere to improve its efficiency and especially 
to extend the range of forecasts, so that the character 
of coming months and seasons may be successfully 
foretold. There is every prospect that this technology 
will be much more useful a few years hence than it is 
today. If, however, we are asked to project our view 
into the more distant future, we must contemplate 
the possibility that these techniques may diminish in 
practical value even though they may increase in 
accuracy. 

Half a century ago a vast acreage in the tropics was 
devoted to growing indigo. The crop was sometimes 
damaged by drought. Accurate long-range forecasts 
of droughts might have made these events less harm- 
ful to the indigo-grower, though they would still have 
caused him serious trouble. Today drought has little 
effect on the production of indigo because it is nearly 
all made in factories from coal tar. Many other dyes, 
drugs, perfumes, leather substitutes, and bone substi- 
tutes, are now similarly prod»iced. Weather has no 
influence on their production. 



"This section was propared by the late C. F. Talman. Meteorological 
Consultaot. Weather Bureau, U. S. Department of Agriculture. 



Many more industries may be transferred from the 
field to the factory and thus be made weatherproof. 
Transportation by land, sea, and air will be made more 
and more independent of weather. The discomforts 
of weather have already been minimized by the arti- 
ficial control of weather indoors, where most of us 
spend nine-tenths of our lives. It would seem that, 
in proportion as mankind becomes less susceptible to 
the harmful effects of weather, the importance of pre- 
dicting the latter will decrease, though it may never 
reach the vanisliing point. 

Reverting to the present situation, while it cannot 
be honesth' claimed that weather forecasts are now 
rapidly improving in accuracy, a strongly optimistic 
feeling that they soon will prevails among meteorolo- 
gists. This is founded on the fact that methods of fore- 
casting recently introduced are definitely scientific, as 
contrasted with the empirical methods developed in 
the nineteenth century. 

There have been three stages in the history of 
weather prediction. In the first, dating from remote 
antiquity, purely local indications were relied upon 
to furnish clues to the coming weather at the place of 
observation. In the second, beginning a few decades 
ago, charts of weather occurring over extensive areas, 
drawn from telegraphic reports, enabled forecasters 
to apply a number of rules, derived from experience, 



Technological Trends 



117 




Figure 15. Weather map of the North Athintic Ocean as preijared iu 
New York and transmitted by facsimile radio to a ship in midoccan. 

concex'iiing the relations of weather in one region to 
weather in another. The rnles frequently failed to 
work, and the physical principles underlying them 
were, in general, unknown. 

The present era can best be described by saying that 
forecasting is now being rationalized. The forecast 
still requires the preparation of a weather map, but 
on this map it is now customary to mark the locations 
of so-called air masses, differing from one another in 
their physical properties — especially temperature, 
moisture content, and direction of movement — and not 
merging gradually into one another, but bounded by 
abrupt discontinuities, called fronts. 

The interplay of air currents along these fronts ex- 
plains the origin of the "lows" seen on the weather 
map and the distribution of rain, clouds, and other 
weather conditions surrounding them. Most signifi- 
cant, however, is the fact that the physical factors in- 
volved in weather processes, as thus conceived, are 
susceptible to somewhat exact measurements — derived 
partly from observations taken, from airplanes or 
otherwise, at high levels — and these processes are 
amenable to analysis according to the methods of 
mathematical physics. Within still modest limits, fu- 
ture weather has become calculable. The whole story 
of how this has come to pass would take up far more 
space than is here available. 

Attempts at long-range weather forecasting have 
also entered a new era. Having formerly been re- 
garded, to say the least, as "bad form" on the part of 
conservative men of science, they are now engaging 
the attention of first-rate minds in many parts of the 
world. Some of the methods proposed aim only at a 
moderate extension — by a few days or a few weeks — 
of the present range of forecasts. These are in some 
cases based on weather maps covering a large area of 
the globe, on which the forecaster watches develop- 



ments at so-called centers of action, which appear often 
to furnish clues to following weather in regions remote 
therefrom. 

Many attempts have been made to predict the gen- 
eral character of coming seasons, especially as to 
temperature and rainfall, from relationships that ap- 
parently exist between weather abnormalities in cer- 
tain parts of the world and the weather abnormalities 
occurring months later elsewhere. These supposed re- 
lationships are called teleconnections, and the degree 
to which each of them holds good, in the long run, as 
shown by past weather records, is expressed numer- 
ically as a correlation coefficient. A seasonal forecast 
for any region is based on a combination of several 
teleconnections applicable thereto that have been found 
to show high correlation coefficients. The classic ex- 
ample of such forecasting is the official announcement 
concerning the character of the summer monsoon rains 
iu India, which has been pi'epared each spring for 
more than half a century; with, however, only a mod- 
erate percentage of successes. It is based on telecon- 
nections extending halfway round the globe. 

Still other long-range predictions are founded upon 
the belief, still unproved, that curves of weather varia- 
tions, when suitably analyzed, reveal certain regular 
cycles or periodicities, sufficiently stable to be counted 
upon to repeat themselves indefinitely in the future. 

Probably the majority of meteorologists cherish little 
hope that these or other proposed methods of long- 
range forecasting will ever prove successful, except, 
perhaps, in increasing the present range of predictions 




Ii'.i i:k Hi mi I III iMr-jilier Wren"s weatherclock (1663). T. Sprat, in 
Ins llistnry nt tla' licijal Society, writes of Wren's invention : "Because 
the difficulty of a constant observation of the air, by night and d,iy, 
seemed invincible, he therefore devised a clock, to be annexed to a 
weatliercock, which moved a rundle, covered with paper, upon which 
the clock moved a black lead pencil ; so that the observer by the 
traces of the pencil on the paper might certainly conclude that winds 
had blown in his ab.sence for 12 hours space." 



lis 



National Resources Coinmittee 




FiGLUE 17. A iiiudL'in lui-ti-Hiugiapli. which makes a continuous retoiil 
of wind direction and velocity, sunshine and rainfall. 

to a slight extent. On the other hiiiid. it is jrcnerally 
recognized (li;it meteorology is under an imperative 
duty to the public to exhaust all efforts to reach this 
long-sought goal, unless somebody can demonstrate 
that its attainment is absolutely impossible. 

With respect to this venture the meteorologist is ap- 
parently in the position of a gambler who, at the cost 
of a moderate stake, earns a chance, however small, of 
winning a colossal fortune. 

Weather forecasts, as now issued, thongli brief in 
their range and frequently faulty, are valuable to the 
community because, in an endless variety of ways, 
peojjle adapt their undertakings to the predicted 
v.eather, and in the long run the foi-ecasts are far more 
often right than wrong. The value of the present fore- 
casts certainly implies that accurate long-range fore- 
casts — even in quite general terms as to place and 
time — would be correspondingly more valuable in any 
nation suitably organized for guiding the undertakings 
of its citizens according to the distant weather pro- 
gram. Forewarned is forearmed. A country can talvc 
measures to mitigate the disastrous effects of a 
drouglity summer or a severe winter, if foreseen 
months in advance, just as it can take steps to repel an 
alien army that has announced its intention of in- 
vading the country. 

Weather Recording and Reporting 

The vast business of observing weatlicr and inter- 
changing news about it is one of the most spectacular 
products of civilization. It is estimated that there are 
in the whole world upwards of 40,000 weather sta- 
tions—places at which weather is observed, once a day 
or oftener, with the aid of one or more instruments — 
as contrasted with a few hundred in existence a cen- 
tury ago. This estimate includes, in addition to fixed 
stations on land, possibly 4,000 mobile stations on 



ships, operated according to standard methods under 
the direction of official meteorological services. Apart 
from these regular shipboard stations, all other ships 
enter weather notes in their logs, but the information 
ihus recorded generally remains ujiutilized by the 
world at large. 

The majority of weather stations are maintained 
for the purpose of collecting climatic data — statistics 
concerning the weather conditions characteristic of 
(litl'erent localities. Such data are used for three prin- 
cipal purjjoses; first, in the investigation of meteoro- 
logical problems; second, in the investigation of the 
relations between weather and various nonmeteorologi- 
cal phenomena (the relations of weather to healtli, for 
example) ; and thii'd, as a means of anticipating in a 
general way the weather of the distant future, so that 
human activities may be planned in accordance. 

Climatic data are essentially long-range weather 
forecasts, and the most trustworthy that we possess 
at present. Farming operations are planned on the 
basis of past experience of weather in the region con- 
cerned, as embodied in climatic statistics. Travelers 
for health or comfort go to places where the records 
of climate show that, in the long run, the most de- 
sirable weather conditions prevail. Marine routes and 
airways are located in accord with similar information. 

A few thousand weather stations, besides contribut- 
ing to the statistics of climate, transmit reports of 
their o])servations by wire or wireless telegraphy to 
centralizing points, and there is a further interchange 
between these centere. Such reports are intended 
primarily for the use of forecasters, but they are also 
used by persons who, for one reason or another, desire 
information concerning current weather at distant 
])laces. rather than forecasts. 




Kua'RE 18. A i.iili.iiiirieorofraph attaciied to a sounding halloiui. M 
regular intervals throughout the ascent and drift of the balloon this 
device reports by radio signals the barometric pressure, temperature, 
and humidity encountered along its course. 



Technological Trends 



119 



A remiukablc international weather news service, 
operated by means of thoroughly coordinated radio 
broadcasts, has lately come into existence. One result 
is that it has become possible to chart current weather, 
by land and sea, over a large part of the globe. This 
international system is supplemented by .intensive 
systems of weather reporting in particular areas, 
especiallj' along airways. 

The advent of aviation introduced a new era, in 
which reports are assembled at brief intervals, day 
and night, from closely spaced points of observation; 
and the intensive news service thus developed for the 
benefit of aviators becomes more and more valuable 
to the public at large. 

A novelty in the transmission of weather news is 
the use of facsimile radio. This process is employed 
in a small experimental way for transmitting weather 
maps and weather bulletins. Hitherto reception of 
these documents has been limited to a few ships and 
ail-ships, but as the process is perfected it jiromises 
to become much more widely available. It will place 
Meather maps, drawn by experts, promptly at the dis- 
posal of many persons who now, when they need such 
docimients, must draw them themselves from the nu- 
merical data transmitted in radio broadcasts, a trouble- 
some task and one that, in the average case, is not 
very acciu-ately executed by the layman. In the 
United States facsimiles of current weather maps are 
transmitted by wire for publication in newspapei-s. 

Two other trends in the observation and recording 
of weatlier may be mentioned. First is the technical 
improvement in the compilation of climatic statistics 
and weather records and their subsequent utilization 
through the use of tabulating machines (the "punch 
card" system). Second, the geographical distribution 
of weather and climate is now registered in certain 
regions and for particular purposes at mnnerous points 
separated by very short horizontal and vertical dis- 
tances; as short, in some cases, as a few feet. Such 
procedures are classified under the terms "micromete- 
orology" and "microclimatology." They are employed, 
for example, in determining consistent differences be- 
tween the minimum temperatures occurring at a given 
time at different points in a fruit-growing area. A 
horticulturist may adapt a general prediction for such 
an area to liis own orchard or particular parts thereof, 
and thus make economical use of orchard-heaters as 
protection against frost. A number of analogous 
"temperature surveys" have been carried out for other 
jnirposes, and there have been intensive studies of the 
local variations of wind, rai)ifall, and other elements. 

"Robot" Weather Observers 

The substitution for the human weather observer of 
an instrument that makes a continuous or intermittent 

8778° — 37- 9 



automatic record of one or more meteorological ele- 
ments is hardly a new development, since one of the 
earliest instruments of this character was the "weather- 
clock" devised by Sir Christopher Wren in 16C3. Such 
instruments came into extensive use in the latter half 
of tlie nineteenth century. In more recent years a 
number of instruments, known as radiometcorographs, 
have been introduced for the purpose of trans- 
mitting automatic records of meteorological con- 
ditions by radio. These reports in some cases are auto- 
matically registered at the point of reception. Here- 
tofore this system of reporting and recording weather 
has been emi)loyed chiefly in connection with the 
flights of sounding balloons, but the same method can 
be used for obtaining reports from places at ground 
level where it is not feasible or convenient to maintain 
human observers. A few installations of this charac- 
ter already exist. 

We may expect to see the existing vast network of 
weather stations greatly enlarged in the near future 
by means of these devices. It has been proposed to 
attach some of these "robot" stations to buoys an- 
chored in shallow portions of the ocean or to beacons, 
analogous to lighthouses, high enough to protect the 
instruments from disturbance by waves. Others will 
probably be placed on islands, and still others on 
mountain tops. 

Lastly, a plausible plan was worked out a few years 
ago to install some of them (dropped from an airship) 
on drifting ice in the polar seas. In this case the drift- 
ing station woidd be operated in connection witli two 
fixed stations on neighboring shores from which, by 
means of radio bearings, its position could be obtained 
at the time of each report. The radio transmitters of 
such stations are operated by storage batteries. It is 
claimed that some of those already designed will be 
able to operate three times a day for a period of 2 
years without renewal, and to function at the low 
temperatures of the polar latitudes. 

Whatever advantage accrues to mankind through 
the maintenance of weather records at numerous points 
on land and sea should increase in jiroportion as the 
use of this new procedure becomes more general. One 
of its promising applications is as a means of securing 
reijorts of barometric pressure now urgently needed in 
the oceanic areas subject to tropical hurricanes to sup- 
plement the somewhat meager radio reports received 
from ships. 

Controlling Atmospheric Environment 

The subject of controlling the atmospheric enviro!i- 
ment and of the physiological benefits likely to result 
therefrom is enshrouded in controversy. Nevertheless, 
a number of facts that have lately come to light seem 
to suggest future possible developments that, in their 



120 



National Resources Committee 



value to mankind, may throw into the shade all other 
applications of meteorological knowledge. 

The perennial dream of controlling outdoor weather 
is not likely to be realized, except on a small and local 
scale, short of some millenniiun of unlimited scientific 
achievements. On the other hand the control of atmos- 
pheric conditions indoors — which began when primi- 
tive man built a fire in his cave to keep him warm — 
has recently made startling progress. 

Indoor climates are now modified at will, within 
wide limits, for the promotion of health and comfort, 
with respect to temperature, humidity, air movement, 



and the amount and quality of light. This is true not 
merely in the dwellings and workplaces of mankind, 
but also in ships, railway cars, and other vehicles. 
Indoor atmospheres are kept clean and germ-free. 
Interesting experiments liavc been made in regulating 
their electrical condition (ionization) and some serious 
investigators claim that the "freshness" of air can be 
thus maintained, and even that the process can be 
emi)loyed successfully in the treatment of disease. 
Lastly, it is conceivable that the chemical composition 
of indoor air may be altered to the advantage of the 
health and efficiency of those who breathe it. 



VII. SOIL: ITS USE AND CONSERVATION" 



Utilization 

Major developments in fertilization, liming, tillage, 
drainage, irrigation, and erosion control methods have 
their roots in western Europe as recently as 200 years 
ago. Slightlj- earlier, advanced minds attempted to 
arrive at the "Principle of Vegetation", with conflict- 
ing results as testified to by the theories advocated for 
water, saltpeter, air, fire, and fine earth. 

The fallowing of one-third of the land was a long 
established feudal practice because of the low pro- 
ductivity of the soils for grain. Owing to the insist- 
ence of Jethro Tull, inventor of the drill and horse 
hoe, that cultivation of the soil was imperative for 
l)lant growth, a change in methods preceded a change 
in crops. His teachings were accepted to the extent 
that turnips were introduced to facilitate cultivation 
of the soil given to grain production. As turnips 
were best utilized as feed for livestock, increased num- 
bers of livestock furnished an increased manure sup- 
ply. Yields increased and more livestock were kept. 
Grasses and legumes were introduced, and a succes- 
sion of crops known as the Norfolk system supplanted 
the fallow system. 

This change from a system of grain following grain 
with every third year in fallow to one of a rotation 
of crops doubled wheat yields, from 10 to 20 bushels. 
It was an important revolution in agi'iculture. Com- 
mercial fertilizers were as yet unknown. They are not 
to be confused with the liming and marling practiced 
under the Norfolk system. 

Fertilization, by other than animal manures, owes 
its development largely to Liebig who in 1840 in a 
report upon "Chemistry in its Application to Agricul- 
ture and Physiology" denounced and eventually killed 
the humus theory which stated that plants obtained 
carbon only from the soil. Believing that plants ob- 

•The first part of this section (Utilization) was prepared by J. K. 
Ablciter, Senior Soil Technologist. Bureau of Chemistry and Soils, U. S. 
Department of Asrriculture. The second part (Erosion Control) was 
prepared by Leland Barrows. Special Assistant, Soil Conservation Serv- 
ice, 17. S. Department of Agriculture. 



tallied a sufficient supply of carbonic acid from the 
air, Liebig introduced the mineral theory which 
stated that plant growth was related directly to the 
quantity of mineral elements in the soil. This doctrine 
gave added impetus to the "Balance Sheet" theory of 
nutrition which owed its beginnings to the careful ex- 
perimental work of Boussingault who had conducted 
research on his farm in France upon the gain and 
losses in soil nutrients vmder various rotations. 

Lawes and Gilbert at Rothamsted at a later date 
pointed out that the ash content is not a reliable index 
to the nutritional needs of a plant. Contradictory re- 
sults with the nitrogenous requirements of plants when 
legumes were included troubled investigators until 
after the rise of bacteriologj'. The development of 
bacteriology and its agricultural applications form 
an interesting chapter of agricultural history. 

Relation to Nutrition 

With the progress of time the scope of investiga- 
tions upon the questions of fertilization and technique 
of application have become moi'c profuse and inter- 
locking. Studies on the availability of phosphates and 
potash, the roles of the minor elements in nutrition, 
effect of placement of fertilizer in relation to seed 
and growing plant, recognition of physicochenical 
processes in soil and plant colloids, realization of in- 
herent differences of productivity in soils for plants, 
combined with questions of the economic feasibilities 
of practices, illustrate some of the branches of cur- 
rent fertilizer science. Recent trends of interest in 
fertilizer practice extend beyond the plants to the 
health of the animals and people who eat them as 
affected by their composition. Especially is this being 
considered in the dairy industry with studies in pas- 
ture fertilization. It appears probable that in the 
future certain physiological and morphological dif- 
ferences among mankind from various geographical 
regions may be explained by nutritional differences 
which in turn may be explained by differences in the 



Technological Trends 

aviiilability ol the phuit nutrients occurring in the 
respective soil types of those regions. Thus scientific 
research will continue to study the soil-plant relation- 
ships which center about tlie i)henouiena of plant feed- 
ing in the localized areas of contact between the root 
hair of the plant and the colloidal particle and solu- 
tions of the soil. Definite practices in fertilization 
will attempt to meet the individual needs of plants 
and soil types for particular cheuiical nutrients. 
The importance of tlie form, avaihibility, and concen- 
tration of phosphate fertilizere will be stressed, as 
will also the economic advantages of higher concentra- 
tions of mixed fertilizer. The role of minor elements 
in nutrition will become important as more nearly pure 
chemical fertilizers are placed on the market. 

With the establishment of the role of bacteria in 
soil fertility and their soil requirements, liming be- 
came more vital to successful farming on the acid 
soils of western Europe and eastern United States. 
Studies of soil acidity led to arbitrary methods for 
the determination of lime requirement and opened 
wide the field of investigation on the phenomenon of 
base exchange and the mineral constituents of soil 
colloids and base-exchange material. Indeed the con- 
flicting data and theories of today concerning the 
structure and composition of the colloidal soil com- 
plex challenge the investigator, and it is not too much 
to expect that future scientists will be enabled to 
comb out the tangled skeins of evidence now presented 
and formulate a more intelligent management of indi- 
vidual soils. 

Tillage, as a technique, has been improved consist- 
ently since the days of Tull. Straiglit and deep fur- 
rows and finely conditioned seedbeds had been the 
criteria of good farmers, without question, until these 
practices of the native forested areas were carried 
onto the drier grassland areas where a different cli- 
matic regime and different soils demanded other 
practices. 

Problems of Land Use 

After the opening of the grasslands to settlement, 
came power machinery suited for extensive operations. 
Only recently have manufacturers and financiers 
realized that economic and social stability was threat- 
ened by optimistic high-pressure salesmanship in these 
open grasslands which beclconed so promisingly. 
Changing points of view on tillage arc evidenced by 
the discard of the dust-mulch theory. Sweeping gen- 
eralities are being amended, and practices are being 
made to conform with climatic and soil conditions and 
economic trends. Tillage practices, land utilization, 
and social tenure of land are closely interwoven. The 
future gives promise that science will be permitted to 
develop programs of wiser land-use throughout the 



121 



Nation, particularly in the Tennessee Valley and in 
the semiarid regions where past practice? have proved 
to be economically hazardous. However, tne tremendous 
social implications decree that time is needed to malce 
the necessary voluntary i-eadjustments. 

The soils of western Europe and eastern United 
States have conunou characteristics, in that they are 
relatively low in inherent productivity, are acid, are 
low in organic matter, their structure is easily de- 
stroyed, and they did not lend thoniselves readily to 
agriculture in their native forested state. 

The efforts to increase their productivity were made 
by men who looked on the soil as a static and un- 
changing medium deficient in one or more component's, 
as compared to an ill-defined standard ;of perfection. 
In certain ways these efforts may be looked on as a 
study in soil pathology. Thus, much research was 
given to the study of the chemical and tcxtiu'al com- 
positions of soils without a consideration of their 
genesis or evolution, other than as geological material 
containing certain and lacking other specific elements 
of nutrition which could be corrected- through the 
techniques discussed. (^ 

Relative to the influences of the present techniques 
on the future developments in agricultiire, it is essen- 
tial to note the rise of pedology in Russia and the 
influence of its teachings on the scientific thought of 
soil technicians and agronomists in the jvestern world. 
This science considers the soil as a natilral body, dy- 
namically responsive to the enviromnent of which the 
active factors for soil development arc the climate, the 
vegetation, the relief, the age or length of time the 
environment as such has been active, and the parent 
material. Although it is recognized that the marked 
characteristic of the soil is its productivity for plants, 
the soil is not looked on exclusively as a medium for 
plant growth, but rather as a distinct entity whose 
physical and chemical characteristics have been shaped 
by an accord with the environment. Hence the soil of a 
specific area is not lacking, according to some stand- 
ardized concept, but is the accompaniment of a certain 
environment with a characteristic inherent productiv- 
ity for certain plants. 

Accordingly soils are studied as objects in them- 
selves, and differences in the structure, color, depth, 
and texture of the various horizons are noted. This 
has led to the establishment of soil types, de- 
fined by certain physical and chemicar .characteristics 
which have been developed by the environment. It 
follows necessarily that soil types are limited in geo- 
graphical extent, according as one or more factors of 
the environment may change. This newer concept 
carries the thought that all techniques of crop and 
livestock production are ultimately concerned with 
specific soil types as units of the landscape, having 



122 



National Resources Committee 



a distinctive profile, native vegetation, range of relief, 
drainage, response to fertilizer, inherent protluctivity. 
adaptations for crop plants, and other features. 

One of the technological trends of the future ap- 
pears to be the more exact niap])ing and study of tlicse 
land units, or soil types. Research will bo conducted 
on their chemical, physical, and biological character- 
istics as they pertain to crop i)lant growth and jjrodiic- 
tion. This means further intensive study in the lab- 
oratory, exi>erimental plot, and the farmer's field, 
along such lines as colloidal characteristics, soil-mois- 
ture movement and availability, soil structure, chemi- 
cal constitutents. and response to certain ti-eatments 
and managements. The inherent productivity and the 
response to amendments of the individual soil types 
for specified crops will become current knowledge 
among agricultui-al workers. The extension of funda- 
mental data and experience depend on classification of 
the soil on the basis of land units which may be given 
geographic extension. The study of plant adapta- 
tions will renew and continue interest in the biological 
sciences. Plant physiology, ecology, genetics, and 
pathology will In- emphasized, as will colloidal chem- 
istry and biochemistry. 

Erosion Control 

The problem of soil conservation is inevitably in- 
volved in any agricultural development. Breeding 
or introduction of a new crop may alter the balance 
of agriculture in wide areas. Its ])roduction may- 
require new and, to the soil, hazardous methods of 
cidtivation. It may open new regions to the plow. 
Thus the introduction and breeding of new drought- 
resistant varieties of wheat made profitable the cul- 
tivation of thousands of acres of western prairie land, 
with a resultant tremendous increase in the hazards 
of wind erosion dui-ing times of drought. New 
implements, new systems of cultivation, and new 
methods of processing, storing, and transi)orting crops 
may similarly alter the nattn-e of agricultural pro- 
duction and its cllect on the soil. 

Except on the relatively small area.s of perfectly 
flat land any form of agricultural development, how- 
ever primitive, s]>eeds u]i the process of ei'osion. 
There is ample evidence that erosion was an impor- 
tant factor in the destruction of primitive civilizations 
whose agriculture never progressed beyond the stage 
of the ox-drawn plow. But technological develop- 
ments affecting the soil have not been all on the debit 
side. The same large tractors that turned the virgin 
sod have been used to build terraces to conserve the 
rainfall and the soil. Plant exploration and scientific 
plant breeding have discovered and developed plants 
that protect the soil as well as those that expose it. 
The same engineerinjr skill that was used to drain the 



prairies of the upper Mississippi Valley now is used 
to build terraces, check-dams, and farm reservoirs. 

In short, if technology has brought ]>roblems it has 
also brought knowledge and skill with Mhich to help 
solve them. Technological development affecting ag- 
riculture, although it may have increased the rate at 
which new land has been affected by erosion, probably 
has not altered in the long run the fundamental effect 
of agricultural activity upon the soil. Perhaps there 
are a few exceptions to this statement. Large-scale 
lumbering, made possible by the use of machines and 
made profitable by our tremendous industrial develop- 
ment, probably has wrought irreparable damage to 
much forest land. But it is generally true that culti- 
vated soil is exjiosed to the erosive forces of wind and 
water with substantially the same effect whether the 
cultivation is by ox-team or gang plow. 

But pressure of necessity nuikes agi-icuiture natur- 
ally an exploitive process. The spur of hunger and 
want stimulates production. Conservation develops 
when it becomes apparent that onl}' on the basis of 
conservation can production be permanent. 

The application of scientific methods to the study 
of soil erosion and its control is a recent development. 
Prior to 1929, when the first erosion experiment sta- 
tions were established, a few pioneering State colleges 
and experiment stations had invest igatwl the subject 
but most knowledge of it has been gained incidentally. 
The first miderstanding of the widespread incidence 
of erosion was gained by soil scientists engaged pri- 
marily in the surv'ey and classification of soils. For- 
esters were investigating the importance of forest 
cover as a protection to the soil and the occurrence 
of disastrous soil washing as an aftermath of destruc- 
tive lumbering (jractices and forest fire. A few excep- 
tional farmers had taken adequate steps to prevent 
soil washing. 

In the papers of both George Washington and 
Thonuis Jefferson are letters to the numagers of their 
estates urging such practices as the filling of gullies 
with brush and straw and plowing across the slope 
rather than up and down. In certain Pennsylvania 
communities strip-cropping and the leaving of grass 
waterways through cultivated fields are traditional 
farming practices — with readily apparent benefit to 
the soil. 

The practice of building a system of hillside ditches 
or terraces in cultivated fields developed in the South 
more than half a century ago and has spread through- 
out most of the Southern States east of the Missis- 
sippi. Most of these early terraces were built without 
engineering knowledge, and without a full under- 
standing of their limitations. As early as 1890, after 
an effort to improve the terraces then in use. Priestly 
Mangum develo()ed the now famous Mangum ter- 



Technological Trends 



123 



race. Even until comparatively recently, however, 
scientific study of soil conservation had not progressed 
far enoiigli to ]irevent the widespread construction 
of terraces improperly designed to carry the run-otV 
of the fiekls and improperly related to agronomic 
])racti('e.s necessary to make them effective. Thou- 
sands of acres too steep and too erosible for any type 
of clean-tilled cultivation were terraced and planted 
to cotton. 

As the first studies of the problem of soil were 
generally incidental to other research and were carried 
on by engineers or foresters or soil specialists, they 
were for the most part linnted by the professional 
horizons of the men and agencies conducting them. 
To a large extent, we still have 'an engineer's, a 
forester's, an agronomist's, a soil si)ecialist's approach 
to the problem of soil conservation. 

As the scientific study of soil erosion progressed it 
became increasingly apparent that a synthesis of these 
divergent viewpoints was necessary. A technique of 
soil conservation was needed. Out of the knowledge 
of every scientific discipline wliich could contribute, 
from the technique of every agricultural profession 
which could be made to play a part, a coordinated plan 
of soil conservation is being built. 

Since 1933, wlien the Soil Erosion Service (now the 
Soil Con.servation Service of the U. S. Department of 
Agricultin-e) was established, there has been a tre- 
mendous expansion of work in soil conservation. New 
techniques have been developed and old ones tested 
and applied on a scale never befoie attempted. During 



the last 3 years great strides have been taken toward 
a synthesis of new points and plans. A coordinated 
attack on the problem of erosion lias been developed 
and applied under a wide variety of conditions. It is 
bringing the resources of agrononn^, forestry, engineer- 
ing, and soil science tooether in a unified, integrated 
program of erosion control. 

It is not too early to saj' that the concept, if not the 
final methods, of scientific soil conservation has been 
established, tested, and prt)\ed. This development 
of an integrated approacli to the study and control of 
erosion is the most important technological advance 
ill the field of soil con.servation. 

The essence of the coordinated plan of erosion con- 
trol, as practiced by the Soil Conservation Service, is 
flexibility. The aim is to treat each farm and field 
in accordance with its individual needs and adapta- 
bilities. Reliance has been placed on no single tech- 
nique. Instead, the soil con.servationist lias utilized 
every available method in liis program. Most of his 
actual technique can rightly be claimed as the develop- 
ment of some older agricultural profession. Strip- 
cropping, terracing, contour cultivation, range and 
pasture management, forestation, gully control, and 
many other practices have essential places in a coordi- 
nated erosion control program. 

The significance of technologies which will provide 
economical and adequate conservation of soil cannot 
be easily overstated in terms of social advantage. The 
wastage of soil is wastage of the basic asset on which 
society depends. 



VIII. CHEMICAL FERTILIZERS ' 



The cultivation of plants for sustenance dates from 
the remote past. In the course of ages, knowledge was 
gained fortuitously that the growth of vegetation was 
promoted by the addition to the soil of certain mate- 
rials and that the continued raising of crops without 
such additions frequently resulted in decreased yields. 

Although the Romans were aware of the social, eco- 
nomic, and political significance of such soil deteriora- 
tion, little or nothing was known of the principles of 
fertilization until the early years of the nineteenth 
century. With the understanding of these principles 
came the bii-th of the fertilizer industry which at first 
dealt in naturally occurring materials and various ani- 
mal and plant wastes, later supplemented by the by- 
products of other industries. The modern chemical 
fertilizer industry began with the discovery in 1840 
that the feitilizing value of bones was increased by 
their treatment with sulfuric acid and with the com- 



^"This sfction was prepared by A. R. Merz. Chemist. liurcau of 
Chemistry and Soils. II. S. Department of Agriculture. 



im-icial application thereof for the piodiiction of dis- 
solved bone and superphosphate. 

Commercial mixed fertilizers are mixtures primarily 
of materials that contain the three fertilizing elements, 
nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. Until compara- 
tively recent years, the United States was largely de- 
pendent upon foreign sources for its nitrogen and po- 
tassium and was self-sufficient only as regards phos- 
])horus. Our enormous deposits of phosphate rock, 
which for years not only met our own demands for 
l)lio.si)horus for fertilizer purposes but also supplied 
those of many European nations, still suffice for all our 
anticipated needs in the near future. As a result of 
technological progress, a synthetic nitrogen industry, 
based on the utilization of the inexhaustible supply of 
the nitrogen of the air, has been developed, the ca- 
pacity of which, together with our byproduct nitrogen 
capacity, is capable of expansion to supply all future 
needs, whether for fertilizers or explosives. The 
dearth of potassium during the period of the World 
War. resulting in a thousandfold rise in price, stimu- 



i 
124 

lated a successful search for native deposits of potas- 
sium salts. The discoveiy of laro;e natural beds of 
these salts, coupled with the development of proce- 
dures to explpit them, and other sources of potassium 
in this country', has freed us from dependence on for- 
(i'lgn monopoly for this element also. 

Supply Problem Arises 

During th^ early years of the fertilizer industry the 
materials thdt were available to the fertilizer manu- 
facturer for use in the production of commercial mixed 
fertilizers contained relatively little of the three ele- 
ments considei-ed of primary importance. The mix- 
tures prepared from them were necessarily low in these 
elements. Low-grade materials, however, are charac- 
terized by high costs of transportation and handling 
relative to their plant-nutrient content. This disad- 
vantage to their use resulted in a gradual increase in 
the concentration of many fertilizer materials that 
were already in use through improvements in methods 
of manufacture and the introduction of refining proc- 
esses. With increasing consumption of commercial 
fertilizers and the resultant growth of the fertilizer 
industry', the more serious question of supply arose. A 
number of materials extensively used, such as cotton- 
seed meal and tankage, were more and more diverted 
to use as feed for stock. In addition, tiie output of the 
industrial byproducts that found use in the fertilizer 
industr}- was dependent on the sale of the principal 
l^roducts and could not be increased independently to 
meet increased demands for the bj-products. The in- 
creased demands for fertilizer materials have there- 
fore been supplied more and more by high-grade 
chemical products. 

A corresponding increase in the concentration of 
the mixed featilizers did not occur. The primary rea- 
son is the fjict that the various grades of mixed fer- 
tilizers hadiiecome established when low-grade mate- 
rials only were available and farmers continued 
through conservatism to demand these grades. Ferti- 
lizer manufacturers were compelled, as they gradually 
substituted higher grade for lower grade materials in 
tlie prejiaration of their mixtures, to use increasing 
quantities ot inert materials or fillei-s to obtain the 
grades demanded. The chief causes for such rise as 
has taken place were (1) efforts of the manufacturer 
to sell higher grade fertilizer mixtures rather than to 
add increasi^ig quantities of filler to his mixtures, (2) 
the educatio^ial campaign of agronomists and other 
officials of vjirious agricultural experiment stations and 
of the Uni^d States Department of Agriculture to 
bring to the^attention of farmers the savings accruing 
in the purcliase of higher grade fertilizer mixtures and 
(3) the passage of laws in a number of States pro- 
hibiting the; sale of fertilizers containing less than a 



National Resources Committee 

minimum quantity of plant nutrients, a result of the 
efforts of the same officials. Nevertheless, mixtures 
containing double the content of nitrogen, phosphorus, 
and potassium in the fertilizer mixtures ordinarily 
sold can be readily prepared by the use of materials 
that have been made commei'cialiy available. Also, to 
meet the former objection that fertilizer distributors 
could not apply uniformly in the field the lesser quan- 
tities of such higher analysis fertilizers that would l>e 
required to supply the same quantities of plant nu- 
trients, distributors have been devised capable of uni- 
foi-mly applying as little as 50 pounds of fertilizer 
per acre. 

More Reliance on Chemistry 

Failures to obtain favorable responses on some soils 
when mixtui'es of only nitrogen, phosphorus, and 
potassimn are used have brought forcibly to attention 
the fact that plants require for their growth other ele- 
ments also and that certain soils may be so deficient 
in one or more of these "minor plant foods" as to limit 
tlie size of the crop obtainable. As the fertilizer in- 
dustrj' of the future relies more and more for its 
supplies of fertilizer matex-ials upon products manu- 
factured bj- chemical processes, increasing considera- 
tion will have to be paid to providing the secondary 
fertilizing elements in mixed fertilizers. This will 
have an influence in limiting the ultimate concentra- 
tion of higlier analysis fertilizers as regards the pri- 
mary fertilizing elements. Although most fertilizers 
of the present day supply more calcium and sulphur 
than are needed on the majority of soils, large areas 
of our lighter soils would, within a comparatively 
short time, develop calcium and sulphur deficiencies if 
these elements were omitted from fertilizers. The ad- 
dition of compounds of magnesium and manganese to 
fertilizer niixtures has already become quite extensive. 
Recent experiments h.ave shown that the application of 
small quantities of other elements sucli as copper, zinc, 
and boron to certain soils considerably increases the 
crop yields thereon. 

In consequence of the growing use of synthetic 
ammonia and ammonium compounds in fertilizers, at- 
tention has also been directed of late to the fact that 
fertilizer mixtures containing nitrogen in such forms 
only tend to make soils more acid in i-eaction and that 
continued application thereof finally causes the soil 
acidity to reach a point that affects growth of crops 
adverselj'. A method of calculation has been de- 
veloped for determining the potential acidic or basic 
reaction of fertilizer materials. By use of the values 
thus obtained, fertilizer manufacturei-s can know in 
advance the potential reactions of their various fer- 
tilizer mixtures. Extensive progress has been made 
toward tiie production of mixtures that are non-acid- 



Technological Trends 



125 



forming, particularly by the use of ground dolomitic 
limestone. The increasing necessity for use of neu- 
tralizing agents as well as need for provision of sec- 
ondary plant-nutrient elements are factors that will 
probably limit the ultimate concent ratioii of fertilizer 
mixtures as regards the three primary elements to the 
double-strength mixtures. Such mixtures, so adjusted 
as regards potential acidity or basicity and containing 
the secondary fertilizing elements best adapted to the 
particular soil and crop for which they ai-e intended, 
will probably constitute the greater proportion of the 
fertilizer mixtures of the future. 

Techniques of Application 

Recent work has shown that the maximum benefits 
obtainable from the use of fertilizers are frequently 
not attained because of improper methods of applica- 
tion. Proper placing of fertilizers with respect to the 
seed both as regards closeness and relative location 
has been found to considerably enhance the increased 
yields. Too close proximity of a fertilizer to the seed 
is usually the sole cause of delayed germination, or 
even failure to germinate, as well as of injury to the 
young plants. The usual method of mixing the fer- 
tilizer with the soil in the row, practiced in many 
localities, is frequently a poor one. Methods of ap- 
I>lication best adapted to the different types of soils 
and kinds of crops are being gradually learned, and 
the knowledge thus acquired is being used for the de- 
signing of new fertilizer distributors and attachments, 
the increasing use of which is certain to enhance the 
average yields now obtained per acre with the use of 
fertilizers. 

Prevention of the segregation of the materials con- 
tained in mixed fertilizers that occur during the 
handling processes between the fertilizer factory and 
final lodgement in the soil is receiving attention. The 
extent to which this segregation takes place increases 
with differences in the sizes and specific gravities of 
the individual particles of the materials used to pre- 
pare the mixtures. As a result of segregation the 



composition of the mixture ceases to be uniform 
tliroughout so that, when the mixture is applied in the 
field, the same relative (quantities of the different fer- 
tilizing elements do not become accessible to the roots 
of the individual plants. In consequence, a given plant 
may liave at its disposal more of one of the fertilizing 
elements than it requires while it is not supplied with 
enough of another element for its full development. 
Methods of granulation have recently been devised 
which not only prevent segregation but also reduce 
tlie (endency of tJie mixtures to cake or become sticky 
and facilitate the process of their distribution to the 
soil. 

Developments and improvements of fertilizers in 
the future have many important possibilities. Nation- 
ally, we have become self-contained as regards the 
elements on which we are dependent for the ])rodu(;tion 
of our f utiU'e crops. As a result of new and cheaper 
methods of manufacture, the cost of these elements 
in fertilizer materials has been considerably reduced. 
Further savings are possible by using these fertilizer 
materials for the production of double-strength fer- 
tilizers. The employment of such double-strength mix- 
tures, granulated, properly placed, and suitably 
adapted in composition to the soils and crops to which 
they are to be applied, will considerably inc7'ease crop 
yields per acre per unit of fertilizing element em- 
ployed. The use of fertilizers will thus be made more 
profitable and their more general employment and in 
larger quantities per acre will result. The increased 
yields per acre obtained will encourage the withdrawal 
of lands now nnsuited to cultivation and their sowing 
to grasses or their reforestation, and an intensification 
of the cultivation of the better suited lands with 
greater consideration given to the conservation of their 
fertility. In many farming sections the development 
and maintenance of pastures on the poorer land, with 
the aid of fertilizers, and cultivation of only a small 
portion of the land, will necessitate the expenditure 
of less labor on the part of the farmers in proportion 
to the financial returns. 



IX. MARKETING PRODUCTS 



Within virtually the space of a lifetime we have 
changed from an agricultural to an urban-industrial 
Nation. This transformation has necessarily revolu- 
tionized the methods of marketing farm products in 
the United States. No longer face to face on market 
days the farmers and consumers see most products 
pass through many channels and processes between the 
farm and the home. The next lifetime seems destined 



" This section was prepared by Caroline B. Slierman, Associate Agri- 
cultural Economist, and Carl H. Robinson, in charge Division of Cotton 
Marketing, Bureau of Agricultural Economics, U. S. Department of 
Agriculture. 



to witness the improvement, adaptation, and extension 
of the techniques and equipment now at work rather 
than any dramatic change. 

Development of Vast Marketing Machinery 

Development of different kinds of market places is 
one of the outstanding advances. The kinds of mar- 
kets have changed with changing years, but many of 
the earliest American markets still exist. Our present 
market places range from small uncovered local curb 
markets, through the large city or municipal markets 



120 



National Resources Committee 



of earlier clays, to llie newer jjreat terminal markets 
and outlying regional markets for receiving and redis- 
tributing motortruck receipts. Ownership may be 
public or i)rivate. Methods, technical eciuipment, reg- 
ulations, and autiiority vary with tlie markets — from 
the antiquated to the most modem. Then there are 
the exchanges and the auctions. Branch and chain 
stores with their accompanying problems are among 
the newer developments. 

Methods of marketing or shipping from the farm 
vary correspondingly. A relatively few farmers still 
market direct by wagon, motorcar, or motortruck. 
Others still act as their own salesmen on the local 
market. Others sell from roadside stands or by parcel 
post. The old personal relationships betw^een the con- 
sumers and those who sup]>ly their wants die hard. 

A large and increasing number sell through inter- 
mediaries of many kinds. Some find the methods 
involved in such selling satisfactory and some do not. 
Most farmers feel that the complicated systems are 
necessitated by modern conditions and demands. They 
may deplore th.e mechanized and commercialized meth- 
ods but they expect an increasing j)roportion of the 
farm commodities to be marketed through these chan- 
nels. They want the channels kept clear and open, 
they want them improved, and to a certain extent they 
want them regulated. 

Service to Improve Entire Marketing Machinery 

Federal and State agencies have been working to 
those ends actively since 1914, when a wave of interest 
in costs of living and costs of distribution reached a 
crest. Subsequent improvements in the marketing 
meclianism include the Nation-wide system of stand- 
ards for practically all farm products, formulated by 
the Bureau of Agricultural Economics and now widely 
used, the shi]iping ])oint and market inspection serv- 
ice, the Nation-wide market news service on farm 
products, the agricultural outlook service, and edu- 
cational regulatory services, both State and National, 
that tend to improve the ethics and the technique of 
marketing. 

Techniques involved in these services are many, 
varied, and ingenious. Each sex-vice could tell a tech- 
nological story in itself. In each case the service, soon 
after being inaugurated, has become vii'tually an indis- 
pensable part of our vast marketing machinery. 

Transportation and refrigeration, among the chief 
technological advances that have aided this revolution, 
are treated elsewhere in this report. The importance 
of their part in past, pi'esent, and future could scarcely 
be overemphasized. Among recent notable transpor- 
tation developments in marketing is the use of the 
motortruck. Marketing advantages and disadvantages 
attend its growing use. Direct buying of hogs, a vexing 



and unsettling question, is an example of the attendant 
developments. 

At present the most rapid technological changes and 
advances in marketing i)i-actice are found in the field 
of freezing and refrigeration. With adequate refrig- 
eration available to a rapidly increasing number of 
households the use of frozen products will expand 
rapidly. The subdivided refrigerator car is coming 
into use. The three box-like containers on one flatcar 
can be jjlaced on three separate trucks and sent to 
small towns or dealers not readily reached by rail- 
roads or not needing full carlots. or to summer resoi-ts. 
Railroads are being asked to provide for re-top-icing 
in transit. Presumably this means rctluction in rate 
of melting and consunq)tion of ice. In soil, we may 
be passing out of the "glacial period" of marketing. 

There are obvious advantages in preparing a frozen 
product in consumer packages. Frozen products are 
not to be regraded or resorted. There are different 
grades of the product and tliey will probably be stated 
on the package. 

Progress in the development of canning of foods 
has been marked and there is now a jiromising tend- 
ency toward informative labeling of canned goods. 
The marketing of carefully graded and accurately 
branded frozen foods may accelerate this tendency in 
the canned goods industry. 

Farmer Cooperation in Marketing 

Besides the farmers who sell direct and the farmers 
who sell through middlemen, we have the cooperative 
marketing of farm products by groups of farmers. 
Cooperative marketing in this country has reached 
huge proportions. These cooperative organizations 
vary from simple associations to large and conq)li- 
cated bodies enqiloying most of the techniques of the 
usual conmiercial marketing but employing them for 
the benefit of the farmer members. 

The cooperative marketing idea now seeks jjrima- 
rily to eliminate certain so-called wastes in the market- 
ing process. The principal difference between the 
chain-store idea and tlie farmers' cooperative today is 
the direction of integration. The chain-store integra- 
tion proceeds from the consumer back to the producer 
while the cooperative-marketing scheme integrates 
fi'om the producer forward to the consumer. 

It is impracticable in a short space to examine these 
two methods and apprai.se their effectiveness. Both 
have had influence in changing the marketing of farm 
products during the last 20 years, and upon the elim- 
ination of some physical waste and unnecessary costs 
in the process. Their future relative strength will de- 
pend largely upon their relative services to society as 
a whole. 



Technological Trends 

Technological Improvements 
in Marketing and Distribution 

'l\'cliiioi()<iical iiupiovcinents in marketing have 
aided farmers in disposing of their products and con- 
sumers in obtaining food and fibers that more nearly 
fit their wisiies and pocketbooks. Most of them prob- 
ably were designed to more nearly satisfy the con- 
Bumers' requirements. Many have lowered or will lower 
the costs of both food and clothing. Some have added 
to liA'ing costs. Many, but not all, are socially desir- 
able. Nearly all have arisen out of or are related to 
the gi'owing complexities of our American life. 

Some of the specific techniques developed in chan- 
nels of marketing and distribution may be illustrated 
in a discussion of technical developments in the mar- 
keting of cotton. In this respect cotton is perhaps 
classic. For the sake of brevity this discussion will 
be restricted chiefly to developments in which the 
United States Department of Agriculture has had a 
part. The developments occurring within the limits 
of a short lifetime will be discussed, principally. 

Parts of other sections, especially the one on dairy- 
ing, touch on other marketing improvements and 
changes. In general the techinques developed in mar- 
keting and distribution channels for cotton, as well 
as for other farm commodities, include the following : 
(1) Improved techniques in methods of harvesting and 
preparing products for market which may conserve 
labor, improve quality, and lower costs; (2) use of um- 
form standards to facilitate grading and expedite 
distribution of various qualities of products through 
the numerous channels from producer to consumer; 
(3) provision for and improvements in existing tech- 
niques of grading, inspection, and regulation of the 
distribution of most important farm products; (4) 
standardization and the development of new types of 
containers for products nioving through marketing 
channels — in some instances with standards for dif- 
ferent containers for farmers, wholesalers, and re- 
tailers; (5) improvement of business and accounting 
systems all along the line, and (6) developing and de- 
signing new uses for agricultural products. 

Farmers Adopt New Techniques Slowly 

Mechanical inventions usually require years of trial 
before their general acceptance and use. The same is 
true of new techniques in marketing and distribution. 
In cotton marketing, as in cotton production and man- 
ufacturing, new and old techniques may be observed 
in use side by side. The one-horse plow and the trac- 
tor may be seen in adjacent cotton fields in the South- 
eastern States. Cotton is still sold in the seed in some 
local markets, with only the most general reference to 
quality in pricing, but across the street, at the same 
time, in the same market, farmers may be selling lint 

8778° — 37 10 



127 

cotton in bales, on the basis of accurate quality classi- 
fication and receiving payment on the basis of central- 
market premiums and discounts for quality. One- 
horse wagons and up-to-date trucks are both used to 
transport cotton to tlie same local markets in the 
Cotton Belt. Likewise in cotton manufacturing it 
is not unusual to see equipment of the latest design 
cleaning, spinning, winding, and weaving in a mill 
which also has machinery bought 40 years ago per- 
forming similar functions. Perhaps new techniques 
are udoi)ted too slowly, but care in adoption of the 
new is often economically and socially desirable. 

Tlie basis for a nuich more nearly perfect marketing 
njechanism for cotton is gradually being built, but 
there have been no quick changes, nor are they likely 
to occur. The development of techniciues and informa- 
tion is always considerably in advance of their gen- 
eral utilization by farmers for whom they are i)ri- 
marily designed. For example, it is now possible for 
most farmers to be much more fully informed rela- 
tive to the supply and demand conditions for cotton 
than formerly and at little or no cost to the individual. 
It is possible for a great many more farmers to plant 
improved varieties of cotton than actually do plant 
such varieties. Facilities are available for supplying 
information on the quality of more cotton before it 
leaves the farmers' hands than is actually classified. 

Resistance to change on the part of both farmers 
and cotton buyers is perhaps the greatest obstacle to 
be overcome. The resistance of one group may have a 
different base from that of the other, but both fre- 
quently react against farmers and sometimes against 
buyers. This lack of complete effectiveness is per- 
hajjs due in part to a lack of facilities to demonstrate 
effectively the advantages of using new techniques 
and the results of the development of new techniques, 
such as informaticm on varieties, quality, and supply 
and demand conditions for cotton. 

Farmers Confronted With Many Technical Questions 

Beginning at the farm on or before planting time, 
farmers are confronted with such technical questions 
as the following: How much of the various qualities 
of cotton should be produced to obtain the lai-gest net 
income? Where can seed of tested cotton varieties be 
obtained, i^ossessing fairly stable known qualities for 
planting, such as those developed through years of 
teclmological experimentation and technical research 
by State and Federal agencies? How many times 
should cotton be plowed, hoed, and picked, so as 
to obtain a maximum net income? What type of 
cotton gin should be patronized? Should cotton be 
sold in the seed or in the lint? How can the quality 
of lint cotton be accurately ascertained ? When is the 



128 



National Resources Committee 



most advantageous time to sell? Many of these ques- 
tions obviously must be answered by the individual 
farmer. 

The marketing mechanism — which is so closely re- 
lated to the economics of production that the tech- 
nological phases of the two cannot be separated — 
can undoubtedly be improved a great deal more in the 
years to come. Tlic foundation for much of the work 
in improving cotton marketing and decreasing dis- 
tribution costs has been well laid. 

For example, through such technical developments 
as the crop meter (a device attached to an automobile 
that is driven along the highwaj' to register the ex- 
tent of a "sample" area planted to cotton) the accu- 
racy of crop estimating has been increased. This, of 
course, is a mere detail in the recent improvements in 
the techniques of the elaborate governmental system 
of cro]) estimating, reporting, and forecasting. Im- 
provements in this work have made it possible for 
most farmers to obtain the information regarding sup- 
plies of cotton comparable to that possessed by the 
largest commercial concerns. Estimates are also made 
of the quality of cotton carried over each year and of 
that ginned during each season and some individual 
farmers have been furnished with information regartl- 
ing the grade and staple length of each bale of their 
cotton. Other similar information is available but the 
accuracy and comprehensiveness of such data are be- 
ing improved yearl}\ Plans are continually being de- 
vised to improve the techniciues of distribution for 
various kinds of inforjnation needed by farmers and 
as a corollary to these changes will go a type of in- 
formation that will more nearly fit local needs. 

Quality is a basic factor affecting demand and 
through the development of a wealth of techniques and 
devices our investigators are learning much more about 
the character as well as the grade ami staple of cotton 
than had been jireviously known. This work is basic 
to improvements in the accuracy of quality measure- 
ments and to necessary revisions in standards for the 
grade and staple of American cotton. Along with 
improvements in the standards for quality and in 
classing will go changes in the tecliniques of super- 
vision and instruction for qualified cotton classers, so 
that the accuracy of this work will be further im- 
proved. It is not improbable that the techniques de- 
veloped in the field of quality measurement and prac- 
tical grading and classing will eventually lead to an 
accurate classification of the entire cotton crop be- 
fore it is sold by growers. As an additional definite 
practical step, an identification device was recently 
invented which may make it possible to maintain the 
identity of cotton bales in marketing channels. The 
general adoption and use of such a device would facili- 



tate the use throughout the marketing chain of an in- 
itial classification of the cotton and would tend to 
simplify marketing procedures. 

Official Standards for American Cotton 

Because of the many improvements in the cotton- 
marketing system that may be visualized but have not 
yet been adopted too much emphasis can easily be 
placed upon probable future developments. Out- 
standing among the technical developments that are 
now in general use are the standards for American- 
grown cotton, promulgated by the United States De- 
partment of Agriculture. These standards are rep- 
resented by practical forms for both grade and staple. 
As a result of the suitability and reliability of these 
standards, the world buys American-grown cotton 
largely upon American standards, which have thus 
become the universal standards for the grade of Ameri- 
can cotton. The reliability of these standards has 
ivieant economic savings within the field of distribu- 
tion and has aided in stabilizing and reducing the 
complexity of marketing machinery and made possi- 
ble more accurate price quotations for cotton. 

Cotton-Drying Machinery Developed 

Improvements in the technique of preparing cotton 
for market are expected. For example, new drying 
machinery has been developed for the drj'ing of seed 
cotton before giiniing. Ginning techniques are being 
improved in many ways. Increasingly precise and 
scientific knowledge of fibers made possible by in- 
genious methods and devices is helping. The actual 
machinery of the gins, the methods of using it, and 
the factors that make for success, are being studied 
in an experimental gin plant and laboratoiy built for 
these purposes. Attention of the research staff has 
been focused principally upon those problems of great 
concern to the cotton grower and ginner, such as the 
influence on ginning (1) of seed cottons of different 
staple lengths, moisture contents, and seed charac- 
teristics; (2) of different methods of harvesting and 
different periods of picking; (3) of varying degrees 
of cleaning and extracting; and (-1) of saw speeds, 
seed-roll densities, and number and design of saw 
teeth. Results obtained in this work are goinc into 
commercial practice with resultant economic savings. 

Cotton Utilization 

Efficient disposal of the cotton crop as a whole is 
dependent in part upon a comprehensive understand- 
ing of the techniques of utilization. Moreover, expan- 
sion of markets for cotton through tlie development 
of new uses is dependent upon adequate technological 
and economic information regarding the uses for cot- 
ton. The paucity of information on the technology 



I 



Technological Trends 

and economics of cotton utilization is evident in the 
literature of cotton marketing. 

For example, the effect of long-draft spinning upon 
the qualitative requii'ements of cotton mills that spin 
various kinds of yarn is as yet not fully understood, 
although cotton mills have been installing this type of 
machinery for about 15 years. It is known that long- 
draft spinning is probably the most important teclmical 
development that has taken place in the cotton-textile 
industry during recent years, from the standpoint of 
cost reduction. A complete understanding of the 
effect of changes in staple length and grade, upon 
the cost and quality of finished cotton goods, is lac-king. 
from both a technological and an economic point of 
view. Such information is basic to a quality-impi-ove- 
ment program for American cotton and more must be 
known about qualitative requirements in the future. 

More is known about quantitative requirements for 
cotton than about qualitative requirements. Tech- 
niques for obtaining information regarding the amount 
of cotton used for various purposes have been devel- 
oped. This information has been helpful in develop- 
ing techniques designed to widen the uses and thus the 
markets for cotton. The main ol)jecti\e of this work 
is to develop cotton materials that are better suited for 
various uses than the products no^v in use and thus 
increase the uses for cotton. Cognizance is taken of 
the fact that wool and other textile materials are better 
suited than cotton products in certain uses and that 
unless a more suitable or a cheaper cotton material of 
equal quality is available cotton will not be used in 
these instances. It would be uneconomical and socially 
undesirable to use cotton in such instances. 

Included among the new materials developed was a 
cotton airplane fabric, during the World War. More 
recently the United States Department of Agriculture 
has designed and directed the manufacture of open- 
mesh cotton bags for packaging fruits, nuts, and simi- 
lar products. A cotton material that is suitable for 
bagging for cotton and that would be economical in 
some years, if net-weight trading — which seems eco- 
nomically desirable and probably will eventually be 
generally jiracticed — were adopted, has been developed. 
The most recent development is a cotton fabric for 
reenforcing bituminous-surfaced roads, which may 
make possible the maintenance of improved country 
roads at a lower cost. 

The passage of the Federal Warehouse Act of 1916 
marked the beginning of vast improvements and mod- 
ernization of warehouses, equipment, and techniques. 
The warehouse receipt has become a universally ac- 
cepted collateral for loans. Insurance rates have been 
reduced. Accounting methods have been improved. 
Mechanical means for cheaper and more efficient han- 
dling of cotton have been developed. Weather dam- 



129 



age to cotton has been reduced. Virtually^all of these 
improved techniques have resulted in lower marketing- 
costs for cotton in transit from the farm to the ulti- 
mate users. 

No discussion of technological progress in cotton 
marketing and distribution would be complete with- 
out some mention of cottonseed. In a little over 60 
years cottonseed has been converted fi"pm a very 
troublesome waste into one of the major cash crops of 
the South. The grow'th of the commercial utilization 
of cottonseed has resulted principally from the tech- 
nological improvements ranging from the discovery, 
in 1879, that cottonseed oil could be purified for human 
consumption to the promulgation of official standards 
for grading, sampling, and analyzing of cottonseed 
sold for crushing by the United States Department of 
Agriculture in 1932. These standards are widely used 
and it seems pi'obabie that in the future much of the 
technical progress in the marketing and distribution 
of cottonseed will come through improvements in the 
extent and techniques of grading. These shoidd re- 
sult in stabilizing marketing practices, narrowing the 
price spread between producer and consumer, and pay- 
ment to individual farmers on the basis of the quality 
of their product. '■ 

% 
Lower Costs and Higher Living Standards , 

Most of the work that the United States Depart- 
ment of Agriculture has undertaken iii; connection 
with cotton marketing has been aimed directly or in- 
directly at lowering the price spread between pro- 
ducer and consumer. Both the cotton farmer and the 
cotton consumer have benefited and probably will ben- 
efit from most of tliis work. Not all of it has yielded 
immediate tangible results. Ultimately the savings 
from a more efficient marketing system will be re- 
flected in part in higher returns to growers and in 
part in lower costs to consumers. The standard of 
living of people generally should thus be taised. Our 
techniques for measuring the extent to |W'hich each 
group benefits have often lagged behind tangible ad- 
vances in marketing techniques, such as fhe in-onnd- 
gation and practical use of standards for the gi-ade 
and staple of cotton. ;'' 

\ 
Crisis Met With a Social Invention ' 

The crisis in cotton marketing brought about by 
declining world prices for cotton and excessive stocks 
and other developments associated with the economic 
depression was met by techniques revolutionary in 
character. The story of the Agricultural Adjustment 
prografti in all of its i-amifications and endeavors as re- 
lated to cotton is a chapter in economic and agricultural 
h.istory that is yet to be written in its entirety. The 
Triple A is a social mechanism that may be subject to 



130 



National Resources Committee 



as much improvement as was the first cotton gin. It or 
some otlicr means for securini; more equitable incomes 
for cotton farmers and conserving the agricultural re- 
sources of the South was long overdue. Social inven- 
tions such as this have been implemented by techniques 
previously develoited through nuirketing I'csearch and 
it is probable that the continuation of the Triple A 
may facilitate the use of other techniques now in the 
process of development by market research workers in 
the United States Department of Agriculture and else- 
where. 



Looking ahead along the tangled and complex paths 
tlirough which our farm products are marketed, 
whet her for food or for textiles, we see the problem 
of letting in the light, of straightening out and clear- 
ing channels, as receiving chief attention. Effort will 
be designed to help both farmers and consumers. The 
two aims are not incompatible. As our marketing pro- 
gram deals with the materials for the food and cloth- 
ing of this and other nations, perhaps in no other line 
of work is it more necessary that the technician and the 
social inventor work hand in hand. 



X. INDUSTRIAL UTILIZATION OF FARM PRODUCTS" 



There are a nun^ber of possibilities for the exten- 
sion of present uses of agricultural products in in- 
dustry, but before these can be properly evaluated 
consideration must be given to present industrial 
trends which might have a limiting effect on such 
expansion. 

Synthetic Products 

Acetic Acid, Acetone, Ethyl-Alcohol. — Acetic acid 
is produced by the fermentation of the natural sugar 
extracted from plants, and may be also made by 
hydrolyzing the starch or cellulose content of the plant 
into sugar. When sugar is fermented by yeast, ethyl 
alcohol and carbon dioxide gas are produced, and the 
alcohol can then be oxidized to acetic acid by the 
further fermentative action of vinegar bacteria. 
Acetic or other acids may also be produced directly 
from cellulose by employing special bacteria. The 
acetic acid in turn will produce acetone by suitable 
chemical or bacterial treatment. To produce these 
same compounds by chemical synthesis, lime and car- 
bon are combined to produce calcium carbide which 
yields acetylene by reaction with water. Acetylene 
can then be converted into acetaldehyde, acetic acid, 
and acetone under proper catalytic conditions. At 
present, this process constitutes an outlet for the waste 
products of the carbide industry, but by expansion 
the ferment atively produced products might be en- 
tirely supplanted, since the cost of the synthetic prod- 
uct is low. Acetic acid is also produced by the de- 
structive distillation of wood, by which process 
methanol (wood alcohol) and formaldehyde are also 
produced. 

Methanol and Formaldehyde. — Methanol and for- 
maldehyde result from the i>vrolytic decomposition of 
any cellidosic material and therefore can also be pro- 
duced from farm waste products such as oat hulls, 
corncobs, nutshells, and fruit pits, although at pi-esent 



"Thi3 section wns prepared by P. Burke Jacobs. Senior Chemical 
Kngineer, In charRe Agricultural Byproducts Laboratory. Bureau of 
Chemistry and Soils. U. S. Department of .Vpriculture. 



the commercial destructive distillation j)roducts are 
mainly produced by wood distillation. However, 
methanol is also commercially synthesized by com- 
bining carbon monoxide with hydrogen gas under 
pressure in the presence of a catalyst. Formaldehyde 
is an oxidation product of methanol. Because of its 
low cost, the present synthetic methanol has prac- 
tically driven the destructive distillation i)rodiict from 
the market, except in certain limited tields. such as 
denaturation of industrial alcohol. 

Ethyl, I so propyl, Butyl, and Amyl Alcohola. — By 
changing tlie conditions of the pressure catalytic proc- 
ess, or by changing the kind or percentage of the raw 
gases used, higher alcohols may be produced, such as 
ethyl (or grain), isopropyl, butyl, and amyl alcohols. 
Such alcohols may also be produced from the olefines 
j)reseiit in natural gas or in the distillation gases from 
the petroleum refining industry. Industrial plants have 
already functioned successfully in producing ethyl 
alcohol from both of these sources. Ethyl alcohol may 
also be produced from wood by hydrolysis of the cel- 
lulose of the wood into sugar and subsequent fer- 
mentation. Several plants have already been erected 
in which cliipped wooil is treated with mineral acids 
and the resulting product is either used directly as a 
stock food or is fermented into alcohol. 

Rubber. — Coinnu'ivial rubber has been produced 
heretofore from the sap of the rubber tree. However, 
not only are rubbers producible from what are now 
considered weed plants (golden rod. milkweed, etc.), 
but recently a synthetic product has been produced 
from acetylene gas, which is further synthesized into 
a product known as chloroprene rubber. Other 
synthetic rubberlike compounds are being made. 

Resins and Plastics. — Our present civilization is 
making increasing use of artificial resins and plastic 
compositions. Resins of the bakelite type are combi- 
nations of aldehydes and phenols. Aldehydes are pro- 
duced by fermentation of carbohyilrates, by chemical 
or bacterial oxidation of alcohols, and by destructive 
distillation of cellulosic products. Phenols are also 



J 



Technological Trends 



131 



produced, to some extent, by tlie destructive distilla- 
tion process. But phenol can also be produced from 
coal, and aldehyde from acetylene jjas. Furfural is 
a special aldehyde which is beinjf produced from the 
pentosan content of agricultural wastes by distillation 
with mineral acid. Plastics are also made from the 
casein recovered from skim milk, from the proteins of 
the soybean and other oil seeds. Other plastic resins 
are synthesized from urea. 

Other Synthetic Products. — The subs) it ut ion of arti- 
ficial coal-tar dyes for indigo and other natural vege- 
table dyes is a classic example of modern synthetic 
organic chemicals displacing natural products. Syn- 
thetic processes might conceivably be used to produce 
fats, carbohydrates, vitamins, and hormones. Such 
processes are seriously foreshadowed by the results of 
laboratory experimentation but are not economical as 
yet. It seems doubtful whether sugar, starch, or com- 
plex fats suitable for food can be produced syntheti- 
cally at a cost to compete with the natural products. 
In the case of vitamins, thei-e is some possibility that 
commercial sj'nthesis may be accomplished. Various 
organic drugs have been produced without resorting 
to plant life for the original material. 

Oil paints and varnishes dc])cnd for their protective 
power on the formation during the drying stage of an 
oxidized film that is hard and somewhat resinous in 
character. Vegetable oils are classified as "drying" 
or "semidrying", depending on the rapidity or com- 
pleteness with which they dry liy absorption of oxygen. 
The relatively cheaper petroleum oils do not have this 
drying or oxygen-absorbing property, but with modern 
synthetic methods compounds have been produced from 
petroleum which have some drying properties. 

From these examples it is evident that the supplant- 
ing of farm products by nonagricultural products, as 
industrial raw materials, is already- well under way in 
certain lines. There is, too, a possibility that unculti- 
vated agricultural jiroducts will become raw materials 
to compete with farm products. The use of wood 
waste at very low cost adversely affects the possible 
utilization of crop wastes. 

Increasing Utilization of Farm Products 

In expanding the use of agricultural surpluses in 
nonfood industries, certain trends are under way which 
may result in greatly increased consiunption. 

Cellulose Products. — We live in a cellulose age. 
Heretofore cellulose has been used mainly in the form 
of lumber (wood), paper, cotton, and linen. Tremen- 
dous quantities of cellulosic wastes are destroyed an- 
nually as crop byproducts, which are suitable for pro- 
ducing synthetic lumber, insulating board, paper, ab- 
sorbent paper products, and cellulose derivatives, such 
as rayon, lacquer, etc. The enormous consumption of 



cellulose l)y the jjaper industrj' continues to increase. 
The young industries of synthetic lumber and con- 
struction insulation board have established places for 
themselves in our economic life. Delayed somewhat by 
our general economic conditions they are again de- 
manding increasing amounts of cellulose. The world 
rayon output during the last 10 years has increased 
fivefold, and although today the production exceeds 
1 billion pounds annually the increase continues. For 
example, the increase in the rayon production in 1935 
nearly equaled the total world production 10 years 
ago. The rayon staple fiber production today only 
equals, the rayon yarn production of 12 years ago, 
but this production increased almost threefold in 
1985. Staple fiber is made into a distinctive separate 
textile which is becoming very populai-. Rayon staple 
fiber, cellulose plastics, and some of the lacquers are 
yearly demanding increasingly large amounts of in- 
dustrial alpha-cellulose. The shoe industry through 
new innovations in its processes is demanding large 
amounts in special grades of industrial cellulose. In 
producing 1 ton of cane sugar, about 1 ton of sugar- 
cane bagasse is also produced. This waste has until 
recent years been used as a fuel in the sugar factories. 
Now the fiber board industry uses large amounts of 
this waste, as well as some cornstalks and straw. It 
is easily ])ossible to go far beyond the present styles 
of boards produced and enter other fields of building 
material not at present competitively attacked. The 
use of wood waste for producing fiberboard can be 
supplanted by the use of cornstalks or straw, should 
competitive prices permit. A large variety of pressed 
jjroducts can be })roduced from such materials as 
straw, cornstalks, and sorghum cane waste, and several 
plants are already in operation. By further refining, 
many grades of paper can also be jn-otlucetl from these 
materials, and by still further chemical treatment it is 
possible to make cellulose derivatives from which tex- 
tiles, plastics, lacquers, films, cements, and explosives 
may be produced. More than a hundred million tons 
of cellulosic material are produced and wasted an- 
nually as byj)roducts of our grain crops. Seed flax 
straw, for instance, a byproduct of the linseed-oil in- 
dustry now largely wasted, can be processed to yield 
paper or fiber for textiles. 

By i)rocessing certain vegetable oils, such as lin- 
seed, soybean, and tung oils, many new industrial 
jn-oducts having special properties might be evolved. 
The new synthetic casein wool fiber ("lanital") made 
in Italy is based on the casein obtainable from that 
Nation's supply of skim milk. Soybean pi-otein might 
possibly be substituted for the skim milk casein. A 
1)()uikI of coagulated skim milk is needed for a pound 
of this yarn. Present production capacity is stated to 
be 11,000 pounds a day. Comparable production in 



132 



National Resources Committee 



this country would consume substantial amounts of 
soybean and skim milk casein. New oils can be re- 
covered from grape and tomato seeds, nut shells, and 
fruit pits. ' By hydrolyzing cellulose certain adhesives 
are theoretically possible. The present production of 
furfural from oat hulls might be greatly expanded 
and other crop wastes might be used as a source of 
supply. At present, furfural has been used for de- 
colorizing wood rosin, for producing plastics, and for 
treating lubricating oils used in internal ^mbustion 
engines. Furfural, however, forms the basis for a 
number of '^synthetic chemical reactions whereby dyes, 
perfumes, »nd other compounds are evolved. 

Furfural" exhibits antiknock and antioxidant prop- 
erties when added to motor gasoline and might be used 
alone as a motor fuel. It has been used to stabilize 
j)etroleum 'oils and as an ingredient of embalming 
fluids. The principal objection to its use in many lines 
of work lies in the fact that its compounds are dark 
colored. If this coloration difficulty could be obvi- 
ated a larjije field of uses would be opened. It is from 
the petroleum industry that the new increase in the 
demand fo)- furfural has come. It has proved very 
successful in the purification of petroleum oils and 
the needs of this giant industry ai-e such that the de- 
mand for liiis compound has been materially increased. 

The use jof ground materials such as cobs and nut 
shells to i*oduce substitutes for wood flour may bo 
greatly expanded. Large volumes of wood flour are 
used in tlu; explosive industry as a diluent and in 
the moldeq plastic industi-y as a filler. Much of this 
■wood floui' is imported and sells at a price that in- 
vites competition from processors of celhilosic farm 
waste. Experimental Avork has failed to show that 
flour fronii these wastes will not meet the specifica- 
tions upon which wood flour is purchased. Inciden- 
tal to the 'use of the cortex fiber of cornstalks for 
])aper or other purposes, pith may be obtained as a 
byproduct which will find use as an insulation ma- 
terial and "absorbent for nitroglycerine for the manu- 
facture of idynainite. The possible future growing of 
the Jerusalem ai'lichoke for the ju-oduction of a sugar 
known as levulose, from the tubers, would probably 
involve necessarily the utilization of the tops for paper 
or boai-d manufacture and would result in the pro- 
duction of a considerable quantity of certain crop by- 
product pith having unusual propei'ties. 

By hydrolizing cellulose wastes with acid and fer- 
menting \yith special micro-organisms, alcohols, or- 
ganic acids, and useful gases are obtainable which may 
find application in industry. By destructive distilla- 
tion of certain crop by-products, acetic acid, meth- 
anol, tars,: and activated carbons can be produced. 
Such activated carbons may bo used for decolorizing 
oils, deodorizing, purifying of municipal water sup- 



plies, recovery of vaporized organic solvents, etc. 
From the tars, creosols and oils having marked 
insect icidal properties can be recovered. From pecan 
shells a tanning extract might be recovered, and 
ground corn cobs might possibly be used to replace 
spent tan bark in the manufacture of white lead. 
Cobs, huUs, and other crop wastes, as well as the 
charcoal resulting from their destructive distillation, 
may be pressed to form fuel briquettes for fai-m use. 
Cellulose pulp might be pressed into shapes such as 
window frames and chair seats, replacing other 
industrial materials, or used in conjunction with other 
materials to secure lightness and porosity. Vegetable 
oils may be treated to increase their hibricating value 
for special purposes, especially in interual combustion 
engines. 

By fermentation, alcohols or special com]iounds may 
be evolved from pulp-mill wastes or from the Ijyprod- 
ucts of the const arch industry, from which also lactic 
and acetic acids are possible residting products. 
Oxalic acid can be produced from corn cobs or oat 
hulls. Xylose, a nonfood sugar of unknown value, can 
bo produced from cottonseed ludls or similar wastes. 
Insulating material might be produced from feathers 
or, by suitable treatment, feathers possibly could be 
converted into artificial silk. Cellulose fibers may be 
sid)stituted for rock wool or other mineral insulation. 
The further use of casein for new resins and plastics 
is possible. In addition, the incidental recovery of 
lignin in the processing of cellulosic wastes may result 
in new industrial uses of this product, which is now 
entirely wasted, and yet which constitutes 30 to 40 
percent of the original material. From the alcohols 
and organic acids derived from agricultural products 
various solvent esters may be produced. 

Alcohol may be used as fuel for automobile engines 
to compensate for a diminishing petroleiun supply. 
This would provide an enormous outlet for farm'ci'ops 
and byproducts high in fermentable matter. On 
the basis of present crop production the normal 
surplus of corn would supply only a small quantity 
of the alcohol required for even a 10-percent blend 
with gasoline. At present, alcohol costs approxi- 
mately five times as much as gasoline, and even with 
un increasing gasoline jn-ice the cost of alcohol must 
be further reduced, entailing the use of cheaper raw 
material as well as new economies in methods of 
]iroduction. 

Rubber is almost entirely imported. The produc- 
tion of satisfactoi-y rubbers from domestic plants which 
could be grown as new annual crops might affect the 
agricultural situation. There is also some possibility of 
synthesizing rubber from the forest product turpentine. 

Naval stoi-es, so-called, are usually not considered to 
be farm products, but their production is a factor in 



Technological Trends 



133 



certain southern rural areas. Heretofore, the main use 
of turpentine has been as a paint and varnish thinner, 
but with the increased use of petroleum thinners and 
tlie decided swing toward lacquers in recent years the 
turpentine market has suffered. Turpentine is an ex- 
cellent solvent and it is probably the cheapest available 
essential oil. It has certain peculiar chemical proper- 
ties wliich make it eminently suitable for certain uses. 
One can visualize a future development in the naval- 
stores industry whereby the commercial mixture now 
known as turpentine will be fractionated into its com- 
ponents such as alpha- and beta-pinene, limonene, and 
dipentcne, which will find enlai'gcd markets for sol- 



vent or other purposes. Furfural is now used in de- 
colorizing the rosin resulting as a byproduct from the 
solvent-extracted wood-turpentine industry. This fur- 
fural is largely recovered, but some possible new 
adaptations possibly in combination with turpentine 
constituents, might be visualized. 

There is a possibility of using either agricultural 
or nonagricultural raw materials, interchangeably for 
producing the same or similar derived products. Any 
prognostications are subject to tlic prevailing economic 
situation, to the relative obtaining prices of raw and 
finished materials, and to the existence of other com- 
peting raw materials. 



XL TRENDS IN FORESTRY 



Federal properties are but a part of all those wild 
lands which constitute more than GO percent of the 
area of the continental United States. This huge em- 
pire is sparsely jiopulated. Though much of it has 
been exploited and abused, it still contains vast forests 
to whicli we must look for present and future timber 
needs. It grows forage, harbors much of our remain- 
ing wildlife, furnishes outdoor recreation for millions 
of people each year; and its forest and other covei- 
help isrotect little waters which later flow through in- 
dustrial centers and fertile fields. So existing and 
potential values of this wild-land empire are enormous. 

Applied to this huge area, and with the impetus 
given by the current interest, many technologies being 
developed in regard to the national forests promise to 
have a profound effect upon other public and private 
forests and uidou the social structure of the entire 
Nation. 

Forest Influences 

Nature created forests, spacing them strategically on 
watersheds throughout the country, where they served 
in part as huge sponges for absorbing rainfall and 
maintaining the soil snd water supply. Similarly, na- 
ture clothed mountain slopes and hillsides, valleys, 
and plains with grass and other herbaceous vegeta- 
tion which helped percolate precipitation into the soil. 
But man has disturbed nature's balance. 

Without trees, shrubs, grass, and allied cover as 
deterrents, pi'eciijitation forms ever-growing little 
waters; rivers rush to the sea from their sources on 
exjiloited watersheds. This action, plus that of winds, 
leaves soil erosion and calamity behind. Specialists 
tell us that the dust storm of May 1934 swept 300 
million tons of fertile topsoil off the great wheat 
plains; that 400 million tons of remaining material are 
washed annually into the Gulf of Mexico by the Mis- 



" This section was adopted from material prepared by F. A. Silcox, 
Cbief of Forest Service, United States Department of Agriculture. 



sissippi; that generally water and wind erosion to- 
gether eacli year remove beyond use 3 billion tons of 
soil. 

Numerous measurements and tests are being made 
throughout the United States. Immense amounts of 
data have been collected and analyzed. Values of foi'- 
est, range, and other vegetative cover in flood preven- 
tion and soil absorptivity have been establislied. 

But technologies are as yet in the preliminary stages. 
They must be further developed and refined, and ap- 
])lied Nation-wide. For social significances of prevent- 
ing floods and erosion and regulating streamflow by 
means of vegetative control are broad and far reaching. 
They impinge upon agriculture and industry alike. 
The present and future of communities such as those 
of southern California are directly linked with proper 
water conservation and use. 

Technologies of Multiple Use 

There are several methods by which the national for- 
ests and their man}' resources, including water, forage, 
wildlife, and recreation as well as forests, might be 
conserved through management. One is by locking 
them up — conservation through abstention from use. 
Another is by permitting one planned use or type of 
use, in effect locking up most of their resources. This 
is the tendency on wild lands in private ownership. 
Under either of these two methods most of our renew- 
able resources and the lands themselves must inevitably 
be under utilized. Yet nature's gifts are the basis of 
all economic life. 

A third method of consei'vation is to provide such 
management as will assure the greatest social and eco- 
nomic good to the largest number of people in the long 
run. Called multiple-use, this socio-economic prin- 
ciple requires development, refinement, and applica- 
tion of many management techniques to the land, to 
every one of its resources, and to all the services that 
both may render to man. Above all, it requires plan- 



134 

ning and coordination of techniques, with vision and 
foretlioiight for tlie needs of the future. 

Invention of new socio-technical theories and prac- 
tices has made possible the demonstration on the na- 
tional forests of multiple-use land and resource man- 
agement. Because of mulliplc-use of such land tha 
net total yield of human, economic, social, and aesthetic 
values derived from a given land area exceed those ob- 
tainable from any customary single use. The result- 
ing influence on living standards is definitely upward. 

By means of these and other technologies the princi- 
ple of multiple use may he extended to forest, range, and 
other wild lands generally, including in large measure 
such lands as are and may remain in private ownership. 

Technologies of ProducinK, Managing, and 
Harvesting the Forest Crop 

Four-fifths of our commercial forest land is in pri- 
vate ownership. It still furnishes 98 percent of all our 
forest products. AVitli but minor exceptions, timber on 
it has been mined rather than cropped. For decades, 
fire protection was nonexistent or utterly inadequate. 
Inunediate economic necessity, rather than scientific 
knowledge, still rules in the selection of species and trees 
cut. Through ignorance and economic pressures, little 
attempt has been made to leave the land productive. 
Forest operations have been transitory. Cut out, burn 
out, and get out has been the order of the day. Ghost 
towns, depressed agriculture, distressed social struc- 
tures, have resulted. Xow, when ])hy^ical frontiers are 
gone, natural resources are limited, and many other 
conditions over the country have changed, these sores 
are dillicult to heal. New ones cannot be tolerated, for 
the cunuilative effect is very definitely felt on the social 
and economic structure of the Nation. 

Technologies developed, refined, and applied by the 
Forest Service in connection with growing, harvest- 
ing, and managing the Federal forest crop, promise 
relief from the consequences of past practices on other 
wild lands. Included are technologies having to do 
■nith forest protection; silvicultural, nursery, and 
planting methods necessai-y to insure forest reproduc- 
tion; selection and breeding of individual trees and 
tree species to inci'ease future forest values; methods 
and machinery for harvesting rather than exploiting 
the forest crop; current forest inventories, and sus- 
tained-yield forest management. 

Applied to a Great Plains area of some 70 million 
acres which includes more than 185.000 established 
farm units, some of these technologies will make of 
it a better place in which to live, will produce trees 
that grow faster, are less exacting as to soil and mois- 
ture, and will serve local needs to better advantage. 
And still wider application of all of them should make 
it possible to so manage our forest resources that — in 



National Resources Committee 

part through a new type of forest community — it may 

in the future help to su))port with security and sta- 
bility a greater share of the Nation's population. 

Technologies of Forest Taxation 

Reference has been made to the prominent part 
which private ownership must play in the develop- 
ment of sound forestry, and to the economic pressures 
which heretofore have tended to obstruct forestry and 
to promote destructive practices on privately owned 
lands. An element in tlicse economic pressures is fear 
of burdensome and inappropriate taxation. Studies 
in forest taxation have developed a program which, 
if adopted by the States, will go far to remove this 
fear and to place forestry, so far as taxation is con- 
cerned, on a par with other forms of land use. The 
solution of the forest-tax problem will contribute sub- 
stantially to bringing about better utilization of the 
forest resources which remain in jjrivate hands. 

Technologies of Wood Utilization 

During the i)ast 20 years our per capita consump- 
tion of wood fell greatly, even in predepression years. 
Despite increases in population, so did total consump- 
tion. Investigations show that many former markets 
for wood have lately been unprofitable or imsatisfac- 
tory. Not because the material lacked intrinsic prop- 
erties that were needed but partly because of improper 
preparation or unhandy forms for use, and faulty 
design of the commodity or the structure in which it 
\\as to be used. 

Technologies with respect to wood utilization, 
evolved and adapted hj the Forest Service point the 
way for wood and its products and byproducts to re- 
gain and broaden many old markets and capture new 
ones. Techniques in the pulp and paper industry in- 
clude those having to do Avith utilization of new 
woods, modifications of mechanical and chemical 
pulping and bleaching processes, and application of 
them to woods that are cheaper and more i)lentiful 
than those iieretofore used. In the construction in- 
dustry are techniques having to do with usable 
strength data and grading rules for lumber and tim- 
ber; use of cheuucals to preserve wood and make it 
fire resistant; construction of large wooden members 
from small dimension stock; development of new 
structural units and systems adapted to large-scale 
production and rapid field assembly with low first 
cost, depreciation, and maintenance. In the chemical 
conversion field, technological developments include 
those to make wood plastic, bacterial fermentation of 
cellulose to acetic acid and isopropyl alcohol, and the 
production of wood gas and alcohols. 

Application in industry and commerce of such 
technological developments presage things of wide 



Technological Trends 



135 



social import such as diversification of raw material 
for pulp, low-cost housing, and motor fuels that may 
successfully be used when gasoline becomes scarce or 
too high in price. They i)oint to more complete 
utilization of wood waste (which has in the past 
reached 50-60 percent of the actual material grown 
or available on the stump), and added employment 
by the forest industries. They lead to conservation 
of our remaining forest resources. 

Other Teohnolosies Applicable 

to Wild-Land Resources and Services 

(a) To forage. — ^Within (ho continental United 
States more than 334,000,000 acres of forest laud are 
grazed by domestic livestock. In southern pine forests, 
forest forage is of distinct value to the rural popu- 
lation. In the humid East, grazing is usually detri- 
mental to hardwood forests. In the West, where wild- 
land forage largely involves the national forests and 
the public domain, economic and social welfare is 
frequently dependent upon forest-land forage. 

The American tendency to abuse and ruin grazing 
lands is historic. Overgrazing has been followed, all 
too often, by capture of soil by relatively worthless 
weeds, and erosion. This process has adversely affected 
enormous farm values, thus contributing to collapse 
of economic and social structures. 

Technologies developed through research and ap- 
plied administratively on the national forests, and 
other technologies now in process of development, 
promise to show the way to halting overgrazing and its 
inevitable consequences. Among these techniques are : 
Improved systems of grazing to bring about natural 
revegetation, obtain more stable forage production, and 
minimize livestock damage to tunber production; de- 
velopment of methods and species for artificial reseed- 
ing of wild-land ranges and abandoned dry farms. 
Soil science, botany, range ecology, and the behavior of 
soils and plant and animal life under different methods 
of treatment are involved. 

Combined into a socio-technical system of control, 
such techniques i)romise to bring huge benefits if they 
are extended to our seven hundred-odd million acres 
of range lands. For this resource might then con- 
tribute far more than it ever has done to the support 
of successful homes and prosperous communities. 



{h) To wildlife. — A substantial part of the i-emain- 
ii!g wildlife in the United States, valuable for food, fur, 
and hunting, or for aesthetic i)urposes, finds its home on 
forest, range, and other wild lands. Wildlife directly 
interests more than 13.000,000 people who hunt and fisli 
each year. It helps support many more and adds to the 
happiness of millions who are eager to catch a glimpse 
of wildlife in its home envii-onments. This subject is 
dealt with in the section which follows, entitled "Tech- 
nology ami Wildlife." 

What the Future Holds for Forestry 

Piiniarily it holds an inescapable obligation to de- 
termine which lands of the Nation will render their 
highest and most permanent social and economic serv- 
ice through forest use, and to apply to such lands the 
best principles of management that can be evolved by 
human intelligence through the processes of science and 
research. It holds the need to substitute for crude 
processes of utilization new principles and methods 
through which the potentialities for human service, in- 
herent in forests most completely, can be realized. It 
holds for the wood technologist, the chemist, and tlie 
silviculturist boundless opportunity for the develop- 
ment of new technologies contributing to Inunan 
progress and welfare. 

The potentialities of forests and their products have 
been only partially and vaguely determined. Their 
latent values as sources of both mechanical and human 
energy largely remain to be developed. Under skilled 
technical direction of the scientist they may be em- 
ployed to supply a wide array of human needs in ways 
superior to those by which such needs now are met, 
and thereby develop a new outlet for labor. Wood as 
a source of mechanical energy has now passed beyontl 
the field of experimentation. It is our greatest source 
of cellulose. Its preeminence as a source of numerous 
elements or substances basic to a wide array of useful 
commodities already is established. 

Restoration of the United States to a condition of 
natural equilibrium is vital to its security and perma- 
nence. That requires the restoration of forests to 
much of the land from which they unwisely have been 
removed. To that end, ways must be devised whereby 
the products of forests may replace our nonrenewable 
natural resources. That is the field which lies ahead 
for the scientist and the technician. 



XII. TECHNOLOGY AND WILDLIFE 



Few students of technology recognize the social im- 
portance of wildlife and the rapid strides which are 



" This section was prepared from information supplied by W. L. 
Mc.4tee. Technical Adviser and Research Specialist, Bureau of Biological 
Surrey, U. S. Department of Agriculture, and other sources. 



being made in technologies affecting its preservation, 
development, and utilization. Publicly sponsored ac- 
tivity is increasing in resear-ch and management both 
in States and by the Federal Government. Wildlife 
is so closely associated with agriculture, with farms 



136 



National Resources Committee 



and forests, that this technology deserves consideration 
with otlier fields more familiarly associated with the 
tei'm "agricultural technology." 

Because of long-continued and thoughtless exploita- 
tion, wildlife was greatly reduced. On areas where op- 
portunities have been provided for demonstrating 
wildlife teclmiques, however, many striking instances 
of restoration have resulted. 

Restoration has social significance not merely in sat- 
isfaction to sportsmen. It has meant a contribution 
to returning the balance of nature, to increasing the 
number of persons who depend upon wildlife, directly 
and indirectly, as a source of income; it has contrib- 
uted to the food supply and to aesthetic satisfactions. 
Wildlife management is a field of knowledge and ac- 
tivity which promises to advance fur in the next two 
generations. 

Instances of restoration, reversing the trend of wild- 
life depletion, has been accomplished by development 
and application of techniques having to do with pro- 
duction and use of foi-age, as well as bio-ecological 
methods involving technical determination of food, 
feeding, and other wildlife habits. 

Among teclmiques comiected with wildlife gener- 
ally those of classifying animals, working out influ- 
ences of environment, and tracing their movements 
were prominent in early techniques of the Biological 
Survey and are still continued as basic research. 
Identification is the key to all that is known of rela- 
tionships, distribution, and habits, and it enables tho 
wildlife technician to shape his practice in the light 
of knowledge that all investigators, everywhere, have 
accumulated. 

Millions of records from all sources have been as- 
sembled providing a satisfactory basis for generaliza- 
tions in regard to the migration work. The technique 
of bird banding has been adopted, improved, and ex- 
tended. Through it the movements of individual birds 
are traced, thus making possible more accurate defini- 
tion of migration routes, general biiil flyways, and 



winter and summer ranges. Tlie scientific data bear- 
ing on the ranges and movements of birds are indis- 
pensable to proper conduct of wildlife management 
I>roblems involving more than a single State. They 
have resulted in the annual promulgation of regula- 
tions protecting birds migrating between the United 
States and Canada, and the establishment of a sys- 
tem of migratory bird refuges giving adequate pro- 
tection to wildfowl on the breeding and wintering 
grounds, and throughout the major flyways of the 
United States. 

The technique of food habits research involves lab- 
oratory analyses of all sorts as well as field investiga- 
tions of feeding habits and of the utilization of food 
supplies. 

From the technique of research into their food hab- 
its have developed a number of other techniques for 
the improvement of environment, and for the encour- 
agement of desirable and the control of undesirable 
species. Originally developed to throw light on eco- 
nomic values in relation to agriculture, horticulture, 
and forestry, this work soon responded to the needs 
of wildlife management. 

Ell'orts to increase the more valuable kinds of wild- 
life developed in one direction into recommendations 
as to choice of kinds, care of propagating material, 
and as to where, when, and how to set out valuable 
v,ild-duck food plants. Plants affording refuge shel- 
ter and nesting cover were included and tlie technique 
became one of general improvement of the environ- 
ment of ^\ild fowl. These recommendations were 
acted upon extensively through a long series of j'ears 
and resulted in great improvement of some properties 
(up to a tenfold increase by the financial scale), and 
are now serving as the basis of development and im- 
2)rovement of the vast new system of Federal migra- 
tory bird refuges (over 100 totaling more than 1,600,- 
000 acres) . Recommendations as to the value of marsh 
aiid aquatic plants and as to methods of propagating 
tliem have been of value also to muskrat farming. 



XIII. THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 



Advances of the dairy industry result from efforts 
in three main directions: Improvement of quality of 
dairy products, efficient and economical production of 
milk, and the efficient distribution and consumption of 
milk and products manufactured mainly from milk. 
The last may include tlie develo|)nient of new products 
as well as the extension of the use of those already 
developed. The aim in these fields of effort is to pro- 
mote the use of greater quantities of dairy products. 
This can be accomplished most readily by decreasing 



"This section \v,is prep.ircd by E. O. Wliittier. Senior Chemist, 
Bureau of Dairy Industry. tJ. S. Department of Agriculture. 



the cost of milk pi-oducts to consumers and by im- 
proving quality. For, although the nutritive and salu- 
tary advantages of milk and its derivatives in the diet 
are of great social importance, these reasons for in- 
creasing consumption are not so readily accepted by 
consumers as the most immediate and urgent argu- 
ments of greater saving of expense and of greater dc- 
sirabilitj'^ of the product. 

Decrease of retail prices cannot reasonably be made 
arbitrarily by cutting the dairy farmer's income, but 
must be brought about through greater efficiency and 
economy in production and disti-ibution of dairy 



Technological Trends 



137 



products. Research and dissemination of the results 
of research are the means wliereby quality inipro^e- 
ment is bein£T effected. 

Breeding 

Increase in our knowledge of the laws of breeding 
of dairy cattle and the wider dissemination of that 
knowledge are capable of increasing the average quan- 
tity of milk produced per cow, and of increasing the 
average quantity of fat per cow, not only through the 
increased quantity of milk, but possibly also through 
the increased percentage of fat. At present, fat is 
the most valuable constituent of milk from the dollar 
standpoint. It may seem to some observers that the 
possibility in maximum milk and fat yield per cow has 
advanced close to its limit, but much certainly remains 
to be done in carrying the available knowledge of 
better breeding to the dairy farmer and in inducing 
him to adopt its principles. As these j)rinciples are 
adopted, the overhead of labor and maintenance costs 
per unit of product decreases and a lowering of price 
to tlie consumer becomes possible. 

Feeding 

The cow is frequently spoken of as a machine for 
the conversion of feed into milk. The comparison is 
valid, not only for the function of the animal, but also 
for the relationship between the types of raw material 
fed and tin- quantity and quality of the finished 
product. 

There is a tendency to change from llie older rations 
of hay and grain for dairy cows to rations containing 
greater proportions of roughage — or even roughage 
alone — in the form of pasturage, well-cured hay, and 
silage. This change has recently been given impetus 
by methods of ensiling grasses, which contain no fer- 
mentable sugar, by the addition of molasses, whey, or 
other source of fermentable sugar or of mineral acid; 
and by a method of artificially drying of roughage so 
as to retain practically all of the nuti-itive constituents 
that were present in the green material. 

Not only is there a direct economy in this scheme of 
feeding, but the quantity of vitamin A in the ration 
is thereby considerably augmented. Occasionally an 
extreme deficiency of vitamin A in the diet of the cow 
causes calves to be born blind or dead. Furthermore, 
the vitamin A supply of the cow is reflected in the 
vitamin A content of the cream and butter derived 
from the cow, which vitally affects human nutrition. 
This will be mentioned in that connection later. 

The growing of more roughages and legumes, and of 
less grain, is of vital importance to the Nation in pre- 
venting soil erosion and in increasing and retaining 
soil fertility. Since from 70 to 90 percent of the grains 
grown are used for livestock feeding, an extension of 



the feeding oi roughage would cause a redistribution 
of livestock farming. A smaller number of cattle 
would be kept in the vicinity of large cities, where 
large (juantities of purcliased feeds are fed, and tliose 
farmers who now specialize in raising grain would 
tend to raise livestock. 

P^xperiments have shown that cows will produce 
about 70 percent as much milk on a ration consisting 
entirely of roughage of good quality as they will on a 
full-grain ration. Statistics indicate that tlie full- 
grain ration represents the average dairy feed of this 
country. If all our dairy cows were shifted from 
a full-grain ration to a roughage ration, it would take 
50 percent more cows to produce the same quantity of 
milk as is produced at present. 

The social change in many rural areas would be great, 
since the entire method of cropping would be changed. 
Instead of the routine of plowing, seeding, cultivating, 
and threshing each year, most of the land would be laid 
to perennial grasses and legumes that would be cut 
frequently at early stages of growth in order to obtain 
the maximum nutritive values. This fi-equent cutting 
would help in the control of weeds. Irrigation would 
become more common in those regions where necessary 
in order to maintain a more nearly constant rate of 
growth of herbage during the growing season. The 
appearance of the countryside would be vastly im- 
proved, since gullies, eroded areas, and weed patches 
would be largely eliminated and the fields would come 
to resemble lawns. 

Delivery of Dairy Products 

The question of changing methods and time of de- 
livery of family milk supplies and the forms in which 
milk is offered becomes increasingly important socially. 
At present in most cities the milkman starts on his 
rounds at a very early hour in order that fresh milk 
and cream may be delivered in time for his customers' 
breakfasts. This schedule makes his life abnormal and 
irritates that great number of light sleepers. For each 
quart, or 2 pounds of milk on his truck, the milkman 
carries 2.6 pounds of bottle and bottle case, and for the 
smaller units of cream the proportion of dead load is 
still greater. Only between one-third and one-half the 
load on an outgoing truck consists of milk. The cost 
of such a method of retail delivery averages about 4 
cents per quart. In summer, the milk is sometunes 
warm when the customer takes it into the house; in 
winter, it is frequenth' fi'ozen. Overlapping of routes 
is a large question. 

Researches in refrigeration, in container technology, 
and ill the chemistry and bacteriology of dairy prod- 
ucts have shown ways out of some of these awkward 
conditions. The greater refinements in sanitation on 
the farm and in the dairy, the development of more 



138 



National Resources Committee 



effective refrigeration for the farm, for tank cars and 
trucks, for the dairy plant and for tlie home, and the 
attainment of greater speeds of transportation, have 
all contributed to make retail milk more palatable, 
much safer, and much less rapidly perishable than it 
was only a few years ago. It may now be kept for 
several days in the home refrigerator in excellent con- 
dition, instead of souring witliin a few hours. This 
points toward <lelivci"y of milk at times more conveni- 
ent for both delivei-y man and customer. Daylight 
deliveries are alreacly made in a few cities. 

When the single-trip lightweight containers already 
in limited use in a few cities for milk sold from stores 
become somewhat less expensive and sufficiently dur- 
able to be used more than once, they will be used in 
retail deliveries. Other develojiments that tend to in- 
crease the salable proportion of the milk truck's load 
are the popularizing of milk powder and of frozen 
concentrated milk. Kesearch will make it possible to 
accomplish sterilization with less or no cooked taste 
imparted to the milk. This will lead to greater use 
of evapoi-ated milk in place of fresh milk. 

Cheese 

Cheese is a relatively neglected item of diet in the 
United States, the per-capita consumption in Eui-opo 
being from two to three times greater than here. Con- 
sumption of large quantities of meat of itself need 
not affect cheese consumption unfavorably, for in Eng- 
land the consumption of both moat and cheese is high. 
Higher quality and somewhat lower prices appear to 
be the feasible means of increasing cheese consump- 
tion. Increased domestic production of high-grade 
cheeses of considerable variety should decrease prices 
noticeably. If part or all of the 60,000,000 pounds of 
relatively high-priced cheeses of foreign types now 
imported were manufactured in this country, the pro- 
ducer of cheese milk woidd benefit by higher milk 
prices, both because of the increased volume of milk 
required and because of the leveling-ui) effect of the 
greater market value of the foreign-type cheeses. 
Use of pasteurized milk in cheese making is likely to 
bring the South more extensively into this industrj', 
thereby giving serious competition to the cheese 
makers of the northern-producing areas, such as Wis- 
consin, New York, and Ohio. 

The development of domestic processeel cheese and 
cheese spreads has definitely increased the domestic 
consumption of cheese. Each cheese can now be mai - 
keted economically in the warmer sections where for- 
merly, because only large units were available, there 
was a large proportion of waste from drying and 
molding in retail stores. The current development of 
ripening and marketing Cheddar cheese in cans will 
stimulate cheese consumption, as will any other factor 



that improves the quality of cheese as received by 
consumers. 

Previous to the World AVar, cottage cheese was 
made and used almost exclusively on the farms. As 
a result of efforts to popularize its wider use, it is 
being manufactured in city dairies from surplus milk 
and is used in ever-increasing quantities by our city 
jKipulation. 

Butter 

Within recent years there has been a marked in- 
crease in the popularity of sweet-cream butter. The 
slowly increasing manufacture of this butter has 
already had the effect in certain dairy areas of de- 
creasing or abolishing the separation of cream on the 
farm and of requiring dairy transportation of greater 
frequency and greater volume. 

A definite preference among consumers for a yel- 
low butter has caused the rather general addition of 
artificial coloring matter, a practice that has legal 
protection. The recent discovery that the natural yel- 
low color of butter is a good approximate index to its 
vitamin A potency seems to point logically to a re- 
versed legislative attitude that will insist eventuallj' 
on having artificially colored butter so marked on its 
container. The recent tendency for consumer prefer- 
ence for lighter-colored butter is likely to subside as 
the knowledge of the relationship between natural 
color and vitamin A potency becomes more widespread. 
This subject is highly important socially from the 
standpoint of public health. 

Ice Cream 

The development of the commercial ice-cream busi- 
ness to a position of importance in the United States 
has taken place mostly in the last 25 years. Produc- 
tion has more than tripled in that time. Within the 
last 5 years the increasing use of electric and gas re- 
frigerators in the home and the greater availability 
of carbon-dioxide ice have shifted the place of con- 
sumption of much of the ice cream from the candy 
and drug stores to the home. Use of packages shaped 
to fit easily into the freezing compartments of re- 
frigerators will probably accelerate this shift. The 
heralded use of the home refrigerator for the actual 
freezing of ice cream has not yet developed to appreci- 
able extent, apparently because of the lack of a stir- 
ring device to whip in air and prevent formation of 
large ice crystals during freezing. Freezing units 
with agitators are now available for refrigerators, and 
ice-cream mix in milk bottles can be bought in some 
cities. Both developments aim to shift a portion of 
ice-cream making from the factory to the home, inci- 
dentally increasing the quantity of ice cream consumed. 



Technological Trends 



139 



Byproducts 

One highly intrigiiinj^ method of reducing the cost 
of dair}- products to the consumer for the purpose 
of increasing consumption is that of shifting a por- 
tion of the total costs of production to valuable by- 
products of skim milJc and whey. Skim milk con- 
tains approximately 2.5 percent casein and nearly 5 
percent milk sugar; whey contains 5 percent milk 
sugar, 0.75 percent protein, and 0.75 percent salts. 
About 40,000,000 pounds of casein are used industrially 
per 3'ear in this country, most of it in the paper in- 
dustry. The recent conunercial development in Italy 
of Lanital, a textile yarn from casein, is too new for 
valid predictions to be made of its effect on our dairy 
or textile industi'ies. 

The 5 percent of milk sugar in whey continues to 
be a problem in economic utilization. Though valuable 
nutritionally, it is expensive to isolate and refine in the 



small quantities at present in demand. As a raw ma- 
terial for fermentation to organic acids, milk sugar 
has possibilities that are already materializing in one 
plant built especially for carrying out the fermenta- 
tion to lactic acid. It seems logical that dried whey 
should be used as food, since it consists chiefly of sugar, 
protein, and nutritionally valuable salts. It is now 
used to some extent in feeds for poultry and swine, 
such use nearly doubling the net income from whey 
over what would be realized from it without drying. 
A beneficial effect on quality, and consequently con- 
sumption, of butter will result from the more exten- 
sive and profitable utilization of bypi-oducts. The 
farmer, instead of delivering infrequently a com- 
paratively low-grade hand-separated cream to the 
dairy, will deliver with greater frequency sweet whole 
milk, --vhich, by factory handling, will yield a better 
grade cream and a hiirher score butter. 



XIV. COTTON PICKERS 



No, you dare not make war on cotton. No power on earth 
Clares to make war upon it. Cotton is kinj; I 

(Hon. J. H. Hammond, in a speech delivertMl before the fnili'd Slates 
Senate, March 4, 1858.) 

Cotton, perhaps more than any other important 
crop, has resisted the general trend of technology in 
agriculture. There have been advances, of course, over 
the prmiitivo methods employed a century ago, par- 
ticularly in breaking the soil, distributing fertilizer 
where fertilizer is used, and in seeding and cultivating. 
But two of the major operations, chopping and pick- 
ing, are still with but few exceptions performed by 
hand throughout the Cotton Belt. 

The reasons, superficially, ai'e obvious. First, the 
very nature of these operations — requiring, as they 
do, the exercise of a selective judgment not easily trans- 
ferred to machinery — offers a considerable obstacle to 
mechanization. Second, labor throughout the South 
in normal times is plentiful and cheap — conditions 
which tend to be perpetuated by the cotton economy, 
and there is no great incentive to save labor time by 
transferring to machinery work otherwise performed 
by hand unless the labor saved, in terms of money 
costs, more than offsets the cost of the machinery. 

In fairness to inventors, however, it cannot be said 
that they have not tried to solve the picking problem. 
For generations they have worked to transfer to tire- 
less machines the work now performed by human 
hands. And although the picker has only recently 
come to wide public attention, the records of the 
United States Patent Office reveal a startling list of 
patents granted on cotton harvesting devices of vary- 



ing description and merit. The first patent was issued 
in 1850. By 1864 there were 12. Since 1SG5, patents 
for pickers or other cotton harvesting devices, includ- 
ing strippers, have been granted every year except 
1899, and the total number granted now exceeds 900. 
But even so, the cotton crop is still largely gathered by 
hand just as it was a hundred years ago. 

Tempered by so long a record of costly experiment 
and failure, most people have grown callous to the 
ever-recurring rinnor that a practicable mechanical 
cotton picker is at last a reality. Today the rmnor 
is more persistent than ever before." 

Even though King Cotton be regarded as something 
of a despot, exultation at this prospect of emanci- 
pating millions of his subjects is not unmixed with 
grave skepticism and misgivings. There is skepticism 
because the tidings have often been shouted before, 
and foiHid false; there are misgivings because, if they 
are not false, there is reason to cringe before the pos- 
sible consequences. Reassurance is wanted that a ma- 
chine capable of picking in 1 day as much cotton as 
an experienced hand can pick in a month will be a 
blessing, not a curse, to mankind. The legendary 
Frankenstein monster turned upon his inventors and 
destroyed them. The victims had failed to make ade- 
<|uate preparations for the control of their creation. 
It is not too early, therefore, to look into .some of 



"This section was prepared by Roman L. Home, of the Agricultural 
Adjustment Administration. 



" See Oliver Carlson, The Revolution in Cotton, The American Mercury 
34 (134), 129-136, February 1935; Oliver Carlson. The South Faces Dis- 
aster, The American Mercury, 37 (145), 1-8, January 1930; William 
and Kathryn Cordell, The Cotton Picker — Friend or Frankenstein? 
Common Sense 5 (6), 18-21, June 1936; W. Carroll Munro, King Cot- 
ton's stepchildren. Current History 44 (3). 66-70, June 1930; Victor 
Weybright, Two Men and Their Machine, Survey Graphic 25 (7), 432- 
433. July 1936. 



140 



National Resources Committee 



the problems that would be raised if this dream of 
a century, a successful mechanical cotton picker should 
come true. 

Cotton's Rise to World Power and Fame 

Once before cotton was the spearhead of cataclys- 
mic change — of the revolution which removed pro- 
duction for the market from the home to the factory 
and added an era to the economic organization of 
civilized man. It is more than idle fancy to suppose 
that cotton may again play a significant part in fun- 
damental economic and social rearrangement. 

Although cotton fi-om planting to harvest has 
largely defied mechanization, cotton as a raw material 
in the fabrication of textiles played a dominant role 
a few generations ago in the series of convulsive 
changes — technological, economic, and social — known 
as the industrial revolution. A brief review of these 
changes will help to fix in better perspective the posi- 
tion and importance of the cotton crop in the United 
States today, and perhaps throw light on the possible 
effects of a mechanical picker. 

Until the eighteenth century cotton was virtually 
a novelty even in England. It was a product of for- 
eign soils, India and the West Indies, and as such 
was more amenable to technological change than were 
raw materials going into the long-established linen 
and woolen industries. From the invention of Kay's 
%ing shuttle in 1733, which practically doubled the 
weaver's output of cloth, to the invention of Comp- 
ton's "mule" in 1779, which increased the spinners' 
output of yarn a thousandfold, technological im- 
provements went forward in every department of tex- 
tile manufacture. Until the latter part of the eight- 
eenth centur}' both the loom and the spinning wheel, 
however, were still hand o))erated, with improvements 
first in weaving and then in spinning disturbing the 
balance of the production process. It remained for 
Dr. Edmund Cartwriglit, in 1785, to perfect the power 
loom which di"ove weaving from the family fireside 
to the site of power — first water and later steam — and 
paved the way for the modern factoi-y system. 

It must not be supposed, however, that modern in- 
dustrial capitalism was ushered in without challenge. 
Thei'e was resistance then, as now, to machinery which 
saved a man's back at the expense of his job. John 
Kay, his home razed by disgruntled workers, was 
forced to flee the country. Hargieaves. the inventor 
of the spinning jenny (1770), fared badly at the hands 
of his neighbors and was forced to move to a distant 
village to carry on his work. Compton sought seclu- 
sion in an attic in a desperate attempt to foil a sus- 
picious and threatening mob. But however distress- 
ing the temporary maladjustments which resulted 
fi'om these advances in technology, the material well- 



being of the average man in the long run was im- 
measurably improved. 

By 1790 the revolutionary advances in cotton textile 
manufacture had shifted the immediate emphasis from 
technology in fabrication to the more pressing problem 
of relieving the acute shortage in raw materials. In 
the United States cotton cultivation was restricted to 
the coastal plains of South Carolina and Georgia, 
where the entire crop for 1791 did not exceed 2,000,000 
pounds, or about 4,000 bales, as contrasted with pres- 
ent production ranging from 12 to 15 million bales.^' 
Failure of the South to exploit the possibilities of 
cotton growing prior to 1790 was due to the more 
profitable alternative uses to which the land could be 
put — so long as the lint had to be separated from the 
seed by hand. Meanwhile British textile manufac- 
turers had to look to other countries where hand labor 
was cheaper for their supplies of raw cotton. This 
obstacle was removed once and for all by the inven- 
tion of the cotton gin in 1793, an event of major im- 
portance in the birth of a new industrial order. Cot- 
ton culture spread north to the "frost line", and south 
and west under the banner of slave-holders prior to the 
Civil War. In 1790 there were only 677,897 slaves 
in the entire country. By 1860 there were 3.933,760 
with only a few hundred scattered north of Mason and 
Dixon's line. 

Meanwhile, advances in technology, both in agri- 
culture and in manufacturing, led to a reduction in 
the proportion of income which the average man had 
to spend for food and textiles, thus leaving a larger 
proportion to be spent on other necessities and on 
luxuries. 

The Cotton Belt 

The Cotton Belt, extending south and west from the 
southeastern tip of Virginia, is one of the most highly 
specialized agricultural regions in the world. On the 
north the Cotton Belt is bounded by the "frost line", 
which dips irregularly southwest as it crosses the 
higher altitudes, marking the upper limit of the 200- 
day frost-free season, and an average summer temper- 
ature ranging around 77° F. On the south it is 
bounded by a subtropical border beginning in the 
Carolinas and following the coast line, taking in the 
greater part of Florida and extending west around 
the Gulf, where excessive rainfall in early autumn 
would interfere with the picking season. Approxi- 
mately 1.600 miles long and from 125 to 500 miles in 
width, the Cotton Belt comprises about one-sixth of the 
area of continental United States. Here, on 3 percent 



" M. B. nammond. The Cotton Industry : An Essay in American Eco- 
nomic History. Part I. Tlic Cotton Culture and the Cotton Trade. 
Publications of the American Economic Association, new series, no. T, 
p. 21, 1S97. 



Technological Trends 



141 



of tlie earth's land surface, nearly 60 percent of the 
world's cotton was produced in the decade of the 
twenties. Seventy-five years ago, when Senator Ham- 
mond delivered his impassioned speech arraigning 
King Cotton against the world, the South was prob- 
fi.bly 2>ro(li"^i'i» 90 percent of the world's cotton 
supply. 

The population of the Cotton Belt proper in 1930 
was approximately 21i/^ millions, one-half of which — 
or about 10% millions — was classed as belonging to 
the rural farm group. The other half was about 
equally divided between urban and nonfarm rural 
groups. Of the total, 30 ^jercent, or about 6I/2 millions, 
are Negroes, more than half of whom live on farms. 
And while Negroes constitute only about 35 percent 
of the rural farm population for tlie Cotton Belt as 
a whole, in two States — South Carolina and Missis- 
sippi — NegX'oes on farms are slightly in excess of 
whites. At the western extremity of the Cotton Belt, 
however, Negroes constitute a very small minority of 
the total population. Although in the last decade 
there was a steady migration to the industrial North, 
the Negro, the mule, and the plow are still character- 
istic of the social and economic system which prevails 
in the greater part of the rural South. 

The abolition of slavery first led to experiments in 
money-wage relationships between the plantation 
owner and the freed Negro. But the Negro's training 
generally had not made him a thrifty and long-calcu- 
lating individual. He was inclined to work until he 
got paid, and then, regardless of the season, was likely 
to set forth to enjoy his new freedom until funds ran 
out. Wliat was the meaning of freedom if he still 
had to work all tlie time? The landlord could get no 
satisfaction by suing for nonperformance of contracts. 

A system evolved which ga^e the freedmen a sus- 
tained interest in the crop from beginning to end, and 
at the same time left active management in the hands 
of the landlord or his manager. The Negroes, for the 
most part, were peiniiless as well as illiterate and im- 
provident, with limited opportunities for improvement. 
As they did not have the capital to set up as full- 
fledged tenants, they gradually' dropped into one of 
the several stages of tenancy distinguished by the 
more or less complete dependencA^ of the tenant upon 
the landlord not only for seed, livestock, and tools 
but also for the bare necessities of food, shelter, and 
clothing. As the decades rolled by the small one- 
mule farmer, whether white or Negro, frequently was 
forced to surrender his ownership status for something 
easier at the moment, but definitely lower in the social 
and economic scale. In 1880, for example, 38 percent 
of the farmers in Texas were tenants, as contrasted 
with 57 percent in 1935. In the same period tenancy 



in Mississippi increased from 44 to 70 percent, in Ala- 
bama from 47 to 64 percent. 

According to the accompanying table, 58.4 percent of 
all farmers in the Cotton Belt are tenants. Of the 
total, whites outnumber Negroes by more than a quar- 
ter of a million, and the trend over the past decade has 
been toward an increase in the proportion of white to 
Negro tenancy. 

Tenant farmers — Percentage of all farmers, 1880-1935' 





United 
States 


Cotton 
Belt 




United 
States 


Cotton 
Belt 


1880 •. 


25.6 
35.3 

38.1 


40.0 
52.1 
55.2 


1930 


42.4 
12. 1 


61 3 


1900 






1920 











' Adapted from the United States Census of Auriculturo. 1935. States included in 
the Cotton Belt: North Carolina, South Caroliua, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, 
Tennessee, Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Texas. 

Meanwhile the center of the Cotton Belt has been 
shifting westward, approximately half the crop now 
being produced west of the Mississippi River where, 
especially in the uplands of Texas and Oklahoma, 
mechanization of cotton culture has already made con- 
siderable progress. The newer lands generally pro- 
duce cotton at lower cost in terms of man- and horse- 
hours than that prevailing east of the Mississippi. 
Moreover, the larger farm units in the Wesf^ make pos- 
sible a more economical use of machinery and labor. 
For all farms reporting cotton in the four older cotton 
States of the Southeast — North Carolina, South Caro- 
lina, Georgia, and Alabama — only 9.3 acres on the 
average are devoted to cotton. In Arkansas, Oklahoma, 
and Texas, on the otiier liand, 22 acres of every farm 
on the average are devoted to cotton. 

Mechanization of Cotton Culture 

Suppose tlmt a successful mechanical cotton picker — 
capable of picking five thousand jjounds a day — is, 
or soon will be, a reality, and that it will be manufac- 
tured on a large scale and sold for approximately 
$1,000. Wliat social and economic consequences might 
we expect? 

Until mechanical cotton picking passes beyond the 
experimental stage limited progress can be made at 
mechanizing any preceding stage of the cotton crop. 
Tractors, gang-plows and other implements of modern 
agriculture have not played a more important role in 
the Cotton Belt because the labor of millions of work- 
ers — men, women, and children, white and Negro — is 
required for the picking season. Since the cheap labor 
is there, the cotton producer uses it as much as possible 
thi'onghout the year rather than purchase expensive 
machinery. Furthermore, so long as a tractor, for 
example, cannot be used in the picking season, none 



142 



National Resources Committee 



but the lar<;er operators can afford to own one merely 
for turning the soil. Tlie advent of a mechanical cot- 
ton picker, assuming its ready adoption, would make 
the tractor practically indispensable in the ])icking 
season. Thus the tractor's availability would be an 
incentive for substituting its use for that of horse- 
power in prei)aring the land for planting in the spring. 
It is probable that "chopping" could be further mech- 
anized if that operation were the last requiring a con- 
siderable amount of hand labor. There are 8 to 9 
million individuals in neai-ly 2 million tenant families 
in the 10 Cotton States. If mechanization proceeded 
rapidly without substantial change in the present cot- 
ton acreage, it has been estimated that at least one- 
fourth of these tenant families to three-fourths of these 
would no longer be needed. But any such estimate is 
likely to be unrealistic until the rate at which mechani- 
zation would proceed can be forecast — and this in turn 
awaits proof that the picker is practical and that it 
can be produced at low cost. 

If, on the other hand, lower cost of production leads 
to increased consumption of cotton both at home and 
abroad, acreage will be expanded and many who would 
otherwise be unemployed will find work not only in the 
cotton fields but throughout the agencies engaged in 
handling and processing cotton. Moreover, further re- 
duction in the cost of textiles will tend to expand con- 
sumer demands in other directions and, in turn, pro- 
vide more jobs. Lower production costs offer some, but 
limited, assurance that we shall recapture the foreign 
markets once dominated by American cotton, because 
the same machinery would be available to other cotton- 
gi-owing countries. India, Brazil, China, Argentina, 
and Russia are also important cotton-i>ro(lucing 
countries. 

Although mechanization of cotton culture would un- 
doubtedly hit the tenant and "cropper" farmers haid- 
est, it would also intensify the struggle of the small 
farmer-owner who, with family labor, one or two 
mules, and rather primitive implements, has long 
struggled for a bare subsistence — often against harsh 
terms for credit both for fertilizer at the nearest vil- 
lage and for provisions at the crossroads store. He 
will be unable to buy a mechanical cotton picker and a 
tractor, and even if he could, its use would be un- 
economical on small acreage. When cotton is 10 to 12 
cents a pound the average small farmer little more 
than breaks even.'® If with the introduction of a me- 
chanical picker cotton can be produced profitably at a 
lower price on the larger farms, the small farmer may 
be overwhelmed by competition unless hand-picked cot- 



ton, because of its freedom from trash, discoloration, 
and roping, comes to conuuand a material premium 
over machine-picked cotton. 

In a restricted section of Texas an improved sub- 
stitute for hand labor in picking has been in use for 
more than a decade. A sled or "stripper" is dragged 
along the rows gatliering both the open and unopened 
bolls. In sections where this device is used, however, 
a large percentage of the bolls ripen at the same time. 
A study made a few years ago reveals that even by 
this crude method of gathering cotton one man with 
two horses and a "sled" can harvest about 41/0 acres, 
or a little less than two bales a day at an operating cost 
of about $3 a bale on the basis of current dollar values, 
as contrasted with the cost of hand-picking ranging 
from $12 to $15 a bale.-" There is, of course, a certain 
amount of foreign matter gathered which both in- 
creases the cost of ginning and lowers the quality of 
the fiber. This method of gathering the cotton crop 
in areas where it can be applied reduces by about 
three-fourths the man-hours required in picking, and, 
consequently the family size cotton farm can be 
increased in about the same proportion.^' 

Cotton Pickers 

Exhibitions and tests in 1936 of cotton pickers in 
Texas and Mississippi have led many people to believe 
that the key to complete mechanization of the cotton 
industry is closer to a reality today than ever before. 
It will require several years thoroughly to test the 
machines on different soils, topography and varieties 
of cotton. But if the confidence of the inventoi-s is 
justified, the picker will inevitably create new social 
and economic problems. 

In the hundred and forty years since Eli Wliitney 
patented the gin, millions of dollars have been spent 
and the inventive genius of thousands of men has been 
concentrated upon this search for a mechanical sub- 
stitute for human fingers. If this substitute has now 
been found, it will deserve a place high among the in- 
ventions and discoveries which have profoundly af- 
fected the social and economic arrangements of man- 
kind. 

Pulled by a tractor, the newer type of cotton pickers 
straddles the row of cotton thrusting hundreds of 
spindles into the open bolls. The cotton, along with 
a considerable amount of trash, is wound about the 
spindles, removed mechanically, and conveyed to a 
container on the machine. 

In exhibition tests one of these pickers is reported 
to have picked as much as 5,000 pounds of seed cotton 



" In 1929 the gross farm Income per farm from all sources averaged 
$1,571 for the 10 cotton States, and In 1934, $669. At the same time, 
the pross farm inronn* fi>r the remainder of the Vnited States ;iveragod 
$2,414 and $1,353. respectively. 



" L. P. Gabbard and F. R. Jones, Large-Scale Cotton Production In 

Texas. Texas .\gricultural Experiment Station bull. 362. 1927. 24 pp. 

"Mechanization of A^jriciilture as a Factor in Lal>or Displacement, 
Monthly Labor Review 33 (4) ; 749-783. October 1931. 



Technological Trends 



143 



a day, as contrasted to 125 to 150 pounds a daj- for the 
average hand picker. Until more machines are pro- 
duced and more intensive studies are completed, the 
cost of picking a bale of cotton with the mechanical 
picker nuist remain in doubt. It is worth pointing 
out, however, that man}- cost items are involved, such 
as depreciation, interest on investment, normal repairs, 
taxes, housing, and insurance, all of which might be 
classed as overliead ex]>enses. In addition, there are 
such dii-ect oi)erating expenses as operators' wages, 
tractor cost, value of cotton lint and seed left in the 
field, and the loss in value from lowered quality. It 
is the total of all these items in comparison with the 
cost of hand jiicking which will largely determine the 
final economic feasibility of the mechanical cotton 
picker. For the moment, however, we are concerned 
only with the possible effects of a successful picker, if 
and when introduced. 

If we assume that cotton acreage will remain about 
tlie same, and that a successful machine will be pro- 
duced in large quantities and sold to all who can afford 
to buy, tenant farming as it now exists in the South 
would undergo change. Some tenants and share- 
croppers would still be needed as laborers in the cotton 
fields, but many would have to turn elsewhere for a 
livelihood. 

Would they pour into the North and seek employ- 
ment in industry? If so, what would be the effect on 
organized labor, wages, and standards of living among 
both skilled and unskilled workers? Many of the 
people from the rural South have had almost no ex- 
perience with industrial discipline and complicated 
machinery; could they be trained to useful and self- 
supporting employment? 

On the farms of the 10 cotton States are to be found 
70 percent of all mules and 16 percent of all horses on 
farms in the United States. These 5,000.000 horses 
and mules, upward of 30 percent of the total num- 
ber of horses and mules on farms in the United States, 
together consume annually the produce from approxi- 
mately 25,000,000 acres of farm land. Will the cotton 
picker, necessitating the use of a tractor, force the 
elimination of a large percentage of these horses and 
mules, along with the hoe, the one-horse plow, and the 
great hordes of roving cotton pickers? If so, smaller 
acreage will be required to feed the working stock of 
the Nation. 

The good and the bad effects of such a machine are 
not clearly and distinctly set apart. The cotton picker 
would cut down sharpU" the greatest single source of 
employment for woman and child labor in America. 
They could not compete with a successful mechanical 
cotton picker, especially in the river bottom areas of 
MississijDpi and Arkansas, and in the Gulf coast prairie 




;e 19. Ilanil pi'l 



lllllllir l/llHMlBJl '^ 

~\:^\\ ami laborious. 



and the Texas black prairie, where high acre yields 
and large plantations would probably encourage the 
adoption of new mechanical equipment. Their backs 
and their hands would be spared the labor. But how 
else, it may be asked, are these people to make a living? 
Would a larger percentage of them be driven into 
domestic service? Or might the mechanical picker 
result in employment of fewer members of a family, 
but these at better wages, thus releasing women and 
children for other tasks which might contribute to 
higher educational and living standards? This latter 
course is not improbable in view of the experience 
with advances in machinery in other agricultural 
l^ursuits. 

These effects are based upon the supposition that 
the cotton picker will be rapidly introduced, privately 
purchased, and employed just as any other piece of 
capital eqiiipment is purchased and employed. Per- 
haps arrangements can be invented which will help 
to distribute widely the profits derived from conserv- 
ing human laboi*. Many questions which arise may 
never have to be answered if, as in the case of many 
imi)rovements, the cotton picker requires decades 
rather than just a few years to get into common use. 
Given a long period of introduction the period for 
readjustment would be longer and individuals actually 
displaced by this labor-saving device might be ab- 
sorbed elsewhere with only limited shock. The key to 




FiiiURE 20. Meclianical picking (with an exporimontal macliine). 



144 

the degree of disturbance wliich the cotton picker will 
create, therefore, to a large extent lies in the length of 
the period of introduction. 

Does the solution lie in whole or in part in the de- 
velopment of farm cooperatives, or more diAcrsified 
farming? Will northern industry move into the 
South and take u]) the slack in the labor siij^ply? 



National Resources Committee 

Perhaps new industries will grow out of the small 
beginnings that have been made in air conditioning, 
large-scale production of prefabricated houses, and 
rural electrification — to the benefit of all parts of the 
country. A cotton picker would prove advantageous 
if, as millions were released from the cotton fields, new 
industries surged forward to employ idle hands. 



II. THE MINERAL INDUSTRIES 

By F. G. Tryon, T. T. Read, K. C. Ileald, G. S. Kice, and Oliver Bowles ' 



The Double Task of Mineral Technology - 

Tlie task of mineral technology is to supply the 
fuels and the raw materials for which modern life has 
come to depend on the resources of the undcr-earth. 
Ours is the age of the power machine and the min- 
erals furnish both the power and the metal for the 
macliine. The minei-als now supply 90 percent of the 
national requirements for energy — water power fur- 
nishing 10 percent. Aside from the manufacture of 
food products and textiles, tlie minerals have become 
the greatest of the raw materials of industry, the chief 
bases of chemical manufacture, the chief materials of 
construction. It is hard to imagine any activity of 
modern life which does not utilize either energy de- 
rived from mineral fuel or articles fabricated from 
mineral raw materials, and in large part the progress 
of invention has been an inci-easing ingenuity in de- 
vising means to use the energy or the exceptional ma- 
terials made available by the mines. The story of such 
inventions built around the minerals is reserved for 
later chapters. In this chapter we shall stop with the 
delivery of the fuel or the material ready for use by 
other industry. This involves following the crude 
mineral through the stage of concentration, and smelt- 
ing or refining, but not through subsequent shaping, 
alloying or fabrication. The contributions of min- 
eral technology so defined are registered primarily in 
lowering the costs of other industry or in widening 
the range of useful materials available. 

This primary service of mineral technology is un- 
derstood even by the citizen whose direct contacts with 
the {)roducts of the mines and wells are limited to the 
purchase of fuel for his furnace or gasoline for his 
car. What the ordinary citizen does not understand 
is that mineral technology works imder a constantly 
increasing handicap. 

The miner faces a double task. He begins on the 
richest and most accessible of the Ivnown deposits and 
as these are exhausted turns unavoidably to leaner 
ores and thinner beds, or to less accessible deposits 

' The contributions of the several authors arc indicated in the foot- 
notes to the individual sections. 

The data contributed b.v Messrs. Tryon, Rice, and Bowles and the 
charts presented in this chapter are preliminary results of the WorliS 
Progress Administralion National Research Troject on Reemployment 
Opportunities and Recent Changes in Industrial Techniques and are 
published with permission of the director of the project and the Direc- 
tor of the U. S. Bureau of Mines. 

= By F. G. Tryon, U. S.. Bureau of Mines. 



lying at greater depllis or greater distances from mar- 
ket (fig. 21).= 

Except as chance or patient exploration find other 
new deposits, equal in richness or in accessibility to 
those exhausted, mineral extraction always faces the 
prospect of increasing physical obstacles. In manu- 
facturing every advance in technology assures a net 
gain in efficiency; in mining it may be offset by the 
increasing handicaps of nature. The miner is like a 
man rowing upstream. 

Mineral economics, therefore, is the record of strug- 
gle between opposing forces. On the one hand is the 
factor of exhaustion, with its burden of accumulating 
handicaps. On the other is mineral technology, aided 
by its allies, exploration and transport. Finding of 
new deposits gives the mining engineer new ground to 
work upon and expansion of the transportation net- 
work may open up deposits known but i^reviously in- 
accessible. The result of the struggle differs fi'om 
place to place. In thousands of individual mines and 
scores of districts depletion has the best of it. If the 
world were dependent on the copper mines of Corn- 
wall, or the silver-lead of ancient Laurium, the best 
of its technology could not avert a huge increase in 
price and a curtailment of supply. But taking the 
world as a whole, technology and its allies have gen- 
erally the best of it, and their victory has nowhere been 
more striking than in the United States. Despite the 
exhaustion of many older districts and the forced resort 
to greater depth and lower grades of ore shown in 
figure 21, technology has provided American industry 
with an increasing quantity of mineral available at de- 
clining price. Down to the time of the World War 



' The data in fig, 21 are derived as follows : ,\Tcraie yield of copper 
at Calumet and Hecla mines from U. S. Geological Survey Prof. Paper 
144, p. 80, and later published annual reports of the Calumet and 
Ilecla Consolidated Copper Co. Note that because of con.solidations 
i-ffccted. from time to time the record is not exMctly conipiirablc, because 
of inclusion in later years of properties with ores of naturally lower 
grades. However, the broad picture of declining yield in comparison 
with the early years of this famous district is undoubtedly correct. 
Average yield of all copper mines from E. W. Pebrson. U. S. Bureau of 
Mines, I, C. 6773. 

Average yield of mercury at New Almnden from J. W. Fnrness, U. S. 
Bureau of Mines, Mineral Resources 1027. pf. I. p. 62 ; at all mercury 
mines from annual mercury reports of U. S. Bureau of Mines, and a 
special compilatitjn by H. M. Meyer. 

Average depth and thieljness of beds at Pennsylvania anthracite 
mines from studies of D. C. Ashmead, summarized in Report of the 
U. S. Coal Commission (192.")), p. 661, and extended by Mr. Ashmead 
to 1931 for use in the present study. 

Average depth of Illinois bituminous mines comiiuted by J. Edward 
Ely from annual coal reports of the Illinois Department of Mines. 

Percentage of dry holes in drilling for oil and gas from annual 
petroleum reports of the U. S. Bureau of Mines (Mineral Resources, 
1930, pt. II, p. 861) and U. S. Geological Survey Bull. 394, pp. 40-41. 

14.5 



146 

tlie output of all tlio majcn- ininci-als prew by Ipaps ami 
bounds (fio;. '22).* TlieieafliT anthracite and <jokl de- 
clined, and bitiuninous coal and iron ore checked their 



National Resources Committee 







' ' ■•I'lll | H M I III! I , ,|,| || I I 

DEPTH -ANTHRACITE 




100 rrr:-zyr.'rt^.->-nrr<rtT^iT,7i-i^.-, v 



OIL AND GAS 

PERCENT OF DRY MOLES 



7 n y 



gso 




FiGiKK 21. Iiuliciitors of the inorea^ing ii.itiiial difTicultiON in mining. 
1870-1(13.".. 

Depletion of the rich and accessible deposits forces resort to leaner 
deposits at greater depth or greater distance from market. The chart 
shows the increasing natural difficulties of mining as indicated by 
Increasing depth of shafts and diminishing thickness of scams in 
certain coal fields, the growing percentage of dry holes in drilling 
for oil and gas, and the <lecllning yield of metal from nonfcrrons ores. 

The Increase in grade of ore indicated for 1!121. and for in:il to l!i.'!4. are 
due to the effect of depression prices in sluitting down liiL-h-cosi 
mines or forcing the operator to practice selective mining of the richest 
portions of his ore body, thereby reducing the grade obtainable later. 



'The data used in flg. 2'J are derived as follows: Index numbers of 
mineral output (physical volume of production at mines and quarries 
and at oil and gas wells) are from an original study by F. J. Me- 
''arlhy. r. S. Bureau of Mines, details of which are to be published 
later, and are subject to revision. Index numbers of men employed 
at mines and iiuarries are based on annual reports of W. W. Adams, 
Chief. Kmployment Statistics Section. V. S. Bureau of Mines, covering 
the period 1911 to 1934. anil loniparable data for the period 1889-90, 



OUTPUT AND 

EMPLOYMENT 

MINES AND QUARRIES 

1911-100 




reso 1695 1900 IQ05 IfllO 1915 1920 t92S 1930 1930 




1890 1695 1900 I90S 1910 I91S 1920 1925 1930 19^ 



-20 
-40 
-60 



■^ 



ix: 



SILVERi>N ALUMINUM 



RELATIVE PRICES OF MINERALS 

ABOVE OR BELOW THE ALL-COMMODITY INDEX 
1900-1909 AVERAGE = 1000 



■A 



flRON 



:^NCj-_5H 



:-\ 



ALL- -2v. COMMODITY. LEVEL-> 



LEAD ^COPPER 



^ 



-TsOIL 



'\ .--^OV-'^-.SlLkR ~~ZZINC 
Vj — '* COPPER- 



y. 



'ALUMIIvlUM 



1690- 


1890- 


1910- 


1910- 


1920- 


1925- 


1930 


ia99 


1909 


t9t« 


'919 


1924 


1929 


1934 



Figure 22. Trend of protUiction. number of men employed, and relative 
prices in the mineral industries, 1890-1935. 

Despite the Increase in natural diffleuUies. technology has been suc- 
cessful in supplying increasing; qnantities of the products of the 
underearth. Mineral output prew by leaps and bounds down to the 
end of the World War. During the litllU's production of oil and gas 
increased at an accelerated rate: production of other mines and 
quarries as a group slackened its former growth under the iulluence 
of changes in demand. (During the great depression all branches 
experienced a decline in demand.) 

The number of workers employed reflects the.se changes in demand and 
also very great increases in technical efficiency, Tlie number on the 
rolls of mines and quarries declined after VX2'A, while that at oil and 
gas wells continued to increase. (Kmployment data for oil and gas 
are preliminary approximations.) 

Technical advances in most of the mineral industries more than sufllce 
to absorb the increased difficulties of mining and prices of minerals 
have declined in relation to the all-commodity level. 



1900. 1902. and 1009-10, developed by F. G. Tryon from the Census of 
Occupations and Census of Mines and Quarries. Index of men em- 
ployed at oil and gas wells is based upon the fragmentary observations 
of the (^ensus of Occupations which are rough approximations only. 
Data on relative prices of minerals and other commodities compiled 
from various primary sources. 



Technological Trends 

former rate of growtli, but in iiuuiy other lines advance 
persisted. The composite curve of all mineral produc- 
tion shown in %ure 22 continued to rise down to the 
coming of the great depression in 1929. Certain com- 
ponents had, indeed, fallen awaj^, but aside from gold, 
mercury, and, in some measure, anthracite, the slacken- 
ing of output was due to changes in tlemand rather 
than to depletion. 

While sujiply was increasing, mineral prices were 
declinin<'- in relation to the all-conunodity level. Price 



147 

movemenls of certain meiais are recorded in the chap- 
ter (in metallurgj' and those for others are .shown in 
figure 22. 

The best inde.\ of the position of mineral technology 
is probably the output per worker, sketched for the 
principal minerals in figure 23.'' With the exceptions 
of antliracite and mercury, all of the branches of min- 



s Reproduced by permission fmiii tlio section on MiiieriU ;md I'ower 
Resources, by F. G. Tryon and Margaret 11, Scljocnrdd, in liocent 
Social Trends (1932). p. 70. 



1,250 
1.000 

750 

500 

250 



COAL- PER YEAR 

Net tons per man 




















A 






r«^ 


fA 


i^ 


r" 


Y 




Slilffi 


■^ 























COAL- PER DAY 

Net tons per man 






A 








J 


^ 


w 


J 




3ituminous ( 
J 


^^— J. 1 


/ 


^nthrc 


icite 'f 























OIL AND GAS 

Billion B.t. u. per man-year, 
^approximate 



03 



s 

OO 



0) 


(\J 


CO 


o 


DO 


0> 



CD 

8 



o 

03 



O 
OO 



o> CM g> 

(O o o 

CO (31 (3> 



0> 01 
— OJ 

<3) C3) 




50.000 



40,000 



30.000 



20.000 



10,000 



1,500 



COPPER METAL 

Pounds per man-year 






1 














/ 






^ 




^-^ 


y 


f 






/ 










^ 


^ 













2,500 



2,000 



1,500 



1,000 



500 



IRON ORE 

Long tons per man-year 




/ 














/ 










^ 




r 








/ 


^ 


M 




-x 


— 


^ 


Y 









50 



40 



30 



20 



10 



i MERCURY 

FlasKs per man-year 





F. G. TRVON ANO M. .. 5CH0ENPELD ^ ''^^TE^T.<^^:r'"^°DV''°^ 

Figure 23. Trend of output per worker in tlie mines of ttie United States. 
In most branches ot mining, teclinology and discovery of new deposits liave eflected a large increase in the output per worker, the advance being accelerated in tlie decade (oUowmg 
the war. Among the mineral industries shown, only anthracite and mercury mining exhibit a declinein the output per man. Both of these industries are characterized by 
advanced depletion. 
The date for oil and gas are the roughest of approximations, but may serve to indicate the trend. 



148 



National Resources Committee 



ing tliere shown exhibit a great increase in yield per 
worker. The gains in productivity are apparent be- 
ginning with tlie earliest record, but they seem to 
have been somewhat accelerated during the decade of 
the 1920"s. 

Prior to 1923, the labor force engaged in mineral ex- 
traction increased both absolutely and in relation to the 
working population as a whole. Thereafter, tlie com- 
bined effects of the acceleration of technique and the 
retardation of demand produced a sudden change and 
the number of workers engaged in the mineral indus- 
tries declined from 11)2;5 to^ 1929 (fig. 22). Of the 
major branches of mineral extraction, only oil and gas 
continued to provide more jobs. With the onset of 
the great depression, of course, both output and em- 
ploj'ment have decreased in substantially all branches 
except gold. 

The change in demand for man-power is seen in the 
proportion of the national working force engaged in 
mineral extraction, summarized below. 

Percent of the total gainfully occupied ic/io leerc engaged in 
mineral exlra<:lion 



Year 


Percent 


Year 


Percent 


1870 


1.5 
1.6 
l.S 
2.1 


1910 


2 


1880 


1920 


2 7 


1890 


1930 


2.0 


1900 











Down to 1920 niiniiig required a steadily increasing 
proportion of the working force. Since then the pro- 
portion has declined. 

The future contributions of technolog}- must there- 
fore be weighed against the prospect of mounting diffi- 
culties. For the immediate future further gains in 
productivity of labor and reduction in cost seem rea- 
sonably sure. But in the longer view the machine civ- 
ilization faces a challenge in the increasing handicaps 
of mineral depletion. Without painting a j)icture of 
gloom the prospect is that America will ultimately 
have to devote far more effort to the task of mineral 
extraction. The answer to the challenge is twofold: 
eliminate waste and improve technolog}'. 

The lines of technological attack vary with the dif- 
ferent minerals. They include learning to find con- 
cealed deposits, penetrating to lower depths, using 
leaner ores or complex refractory ores by mass meth- 
ods of mining and by imi)roveinents in concentration 
and smelting, recovery of byproducts, mechanization 
of work now done by hand, and reduction of the acci- 
dent hazard. Safety in mines is not merely a humani- 
tarian problem, for unless the hazard can be controlled, 
mining becomes physically impossible or cost abnor- 
: fially high. 



It is one thing to outline the task of technology, an- 
other to trace its probable success. Even the cautious 
observer who seeks to paddle in the charted waters of 
present trends may find himself swept downstream by 
a current of prediction into whirlpools that sink his 
fragile craft. The writer of this introduction recalls 
assumptions confidently made a decade ago which ex- 
perience has already proven wrong. The hazard of 
forecast is especially serious in a field that involves not 
only the uncertainties of invention, but the unpredict- 
able factor of mineral discovery, and it has led astray 
even so practical a mind as Edison's." All that can 
well be done is to trace existing currents of technologic 
change, and to ask in what direction they seem to be 
sweeping the mineral industries. This is attempted in 
the following pages, each collaborator writing about 
the field that interests him most, and expressing, nec- 
essarily, his own judgments. First to be discussed is 
the general problem of the search for new deposits. 
Thereafter it will be in order to consider in turn the 
principal branches of mining, to mention the problems 
of mine safety, and finally to attempt a thumbnail 
sketch of the composite effects of the changes in process 
upon American life. 

The Technique of Exploration ' 

Passing of the Old-Time Prospector. — Until re- 
cently the search for new mineral deposits depended 
chiefly on the adventui'ous efforts of the individual 
prospector. Most of the world's loiown store of metal 
was first discovered by men trained in the school of 
adversity but lacking either scientific or technical 
guidance. In areas where deposits outcropped at the 
surface, the principal metal-mining districts were 
found relatively soon after the region was occupied 
by people who knew the value of the metals. In 
North America the golden age of surface prospecting 
followed the discovery of the yellow metal in Cali- 
fornia and within the next half century a wave of 
exploration swept over the western United States, 
Australia, British Columbia, Alaska, and many other 
lands. Figure 24 suggests how large a part of the 
present source of metalliferous wealth in the United 
States was found in this way and how small, by com- 
parison, have been the finds of the last quarter cen- 
tury. In the United States, at least, it is clear that 
the contribution of the old-time prospector, equipped 
with pick and burro has now been largely made, 
though the depression has sent thousands of men into 
the hills again to search for gold. Except as new 
methods for locating concealed deposits may be de- 



" Mining and Jfetallurgy, November 1931, p. 508. 

' By K. C. Ileald. staff geologist. Gulf Oil Corporation. Pittsburgh, Ta. 



Technological Trends 

veloped, the influence of the factor of discovery is 
slowing down. 

In striking contrast to the metals is the record of 
discovery of the major oil pools, summarized in the 
same diagram. In this fiehl tiie untrained individual 
could accomplish little. 'I'lie short life of the typical 
oil 2wol and the growing demand for petroleum prod- 
ucts furnished a powerful incentive for organized 
search and were a major factor in the development of 
new methods of exploration. 

Rise of a Scie7ice of Exploration. — While geologic 
science has been applied for many years to the search 
for mineral deposits, the only industry which can be 
said to have organized a mass attack upon the problem 
is petroleum. Today, the oil industry employs thou- 
sands of geologists. Their ellectiveness is proved by 
the fact that most of the petroleum currently produced 
in the United States comes from fields where no seep- 
ages of oil or of gas, the visible signs that attracted the 
early explorers, exist. The geologist is trained to 
consider every factor that is significant and has 
learned to recognize the promise of regions where there 
are no surface traces of these substances. 

In other branches of mining also, there lias in recent 
years been increased employment of men to search 
for mineral deposits. The State and Federal surveys 
have rendered valuable service, and the larger metal 
mining companies, in particular, maintain geologic 



25 



20 



8 '5 



I 10 

z 



RATE OF DISCOVERY 
OF NEW DEPOSITS 



OIL FIELDS 
(50 LARGEST) 



METAL DISTRICTS 
(35 LARGEST) 







BEFORE 1640 1850 I860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 

1840 '^^ '^^ ^^ "^O TO TO TO TO TO TO 

1849 IS59 1869 1679 1889 1899 1909 1919 1929 1939 



F. G. THVON 

5. BUREAU OF MINES 



MINE MECHANIZATION AND PRODUCTIVITY STUDY 
W. P. A. HATIONAL RESEARCH PROJECT 



FiGUKE 24. Trends in discovery of new mineral deposits as indic.ited by 
the number of major mi'tal-mining districts and major oil fields dis- 
covered in each decade from 1840 to 1930. 

In metal mining the discovery of new deposits is slowing down. Of the 
35 leading metalliferous districts only 5 have been discovered since 
1900 and none at all since 1910. In oil, on the other hand, discovery 
is still exceedingly active and out of the 50 largest pools 20 were 
discovered in the decade 1920-30. 



149 

staffs. If the experience of the petroleum industry is 
any criterion, this tendency, if continued and intensi- 
fied, will have important results. AVliile the search 
for concealed ore deposits appears inherently more diffi- 
cult than for petroleum, it seems reasonable to conclude 
tliat the science of exploration for many types of 
minerals is in its infancy. 

Discovery of all the important mineral deposits in 
any given area is not today possible. Even were 
geology a mature science, it could discover only a 
fraction of the mineral accumulations, since the geol- 
ogist must draw his deducticms from conditions ob- 
served on the surface of the earth and in holes that 
penetrate, at most, but 10 or 12 thousand feet below 
its surface. If discovery is to be even approximately 
complete, geology must be supplemented by equipment 
iind methods that will supply information about the 
rock conditions deep below the earth's surface, and 
these methods must secure the required knowledge 
more rapidly and more clieaply than the slow and 
costly procedure of drilling deep holes. 

Methods of this character are at hand. The science 
of physics has come to the aid of the geologic prospec- 
tor. The physicist, to satisfy his passion for precise 
and minute measurement, developed sensitive instru- 
ments to determine the pull of gravity, the effect of 
tlie earth's magnetic field, the rates at which vibrations 
could be transmitted through rocks of different types, 
and other measurable effects that may tell of condi- 
tions deep below the earth's surface. These instru- 
ments have enormously increased the resources of the 
trained prospector. 

In some fields of exploration geophysical methods 
are now intensively applied. Millions of dollars have 
been spent on their develoi)ment and application, and 
their use gives employment, directly or indirectly, to 
tliousands in the United States alone. Their record 
of success is impressive when it is recognized that the 
methods are very young, that most of the geophysical 
effort to find mineral deposits has been concentrated 
in North America, and tliat more than nine-tenths 
of it has been directed to the search for oil or gas. 
Petroleum and natural gas deposits in foreign lands 
and deposits of other minerals everywhere, that can 
be found only through applied geophysics, remain 
to be discovered. 

The first contribution of geophysics to the science 
of prospecting was the discovery of bodies of iron 
ore. Instruments that today would be considered 
crude were used to localize areas of higli magnetic 
intensity. Underlying some of these areas bodies of 
iron ore were found. Although this method was the 
pioneer, its application has thus far been quite limited. 
Only one of the measurably magnetic quantities — ^the 



150 



National Resources Committee 



vertical component of tlie earth's magnetic field — ^has 
been extensively studied, and there is still stron<r 
disagreement as to the origin and significance of the 
magnetic plienomena recorded by the instruments. 
The record of this method as applied to mineral dis- 
covery is not impressive but, in the writer's o[)inion. 
its future has more promise than its ])ast might in- 
dicate. 

Seismology is, today, more extensively used than 
otlier geopliysical methods. This method permits the 
prospector to learn something about conditions at 
dei^tlis as great as 15,000 or more feet, although the 
information about those conditions is not precise. 
Under favorable circumstances the areas where condi- 
tions suggest the existence of oil pools, and even the 
approximate depth at which certain significant layere 
of rock, likely to be closely associated with petroleum, 
will be encountered by the drill, may be determined. 

In spite of its achievements, applied seismology must 
be rated as a A^ery imperfect science. In many areas 
consistent and understandable residts cannot be secured. 
The theory upon which depends the interpretation of 
the results is incomplete, even with respect to the con- 
ditions in the oil-bearing areas where a great deal of 
work has been done, and much of the theory that will 
be demanded when seismology is intensively employed 
in the search for minerals other than petroleum un- 
questionably remains to be developed. 

Methods which measure either tlie total force or 
some component of gravity have been strikingly suc- 
cessful only in coastal Louisiana and Texas, where 
oil fields are associated with great masses of salt. 
This salt is so mucli lighter than the rocks that sur- 
round it that the gravity effect is, in many instances, 
very easy to detect with the precise instruments now 
available. Modest successes have been scored in other 
areas, but it has been learned that translating gravity 
into geology is even more difficult than translating 
seismology into geology. These methods call for idtni- 
l)recision both in tlie actual physical measurements 
and in the thought applied to their interpretation. 
Unquestionably technique and theory thus far un- 
developed will be needed when gravity is extensively 
used to find the ores of metals. 

Methods that utilize measurable electrical properties 
of the earth, such as conductivity, resistance, and in- 
duced magnetism, have been tried with small success by 
the petroleimi industry and have been, in large meas- 
ure, discarded. It does not follow that these methods 
are without promise. However, the evidence most help- 
ful in locating oil and gas fields could be secured at 
less cost and with greater assurance of accuracy in 
other ways. Electrical methods have a modest record 
of success in connection with the search for certain 
types of ore deposits but. in their present state of 



development, they appear to have a very limited field 
of application. The fact that far less time and money 
have been spent on their development than on either 
the seismic or gravitational methods probably means 
that their ultimate usefulness cannot be correctly 
appraised by their past record or their present 
limitations. 

Future of Dificovery. — If discovery of new deposits 
should cease today, proven reserves in the United 
States would meet the requirements of this country 
for a period ranging from perhaps 10 years for pe- 
troleiun to probably more than 2.000 years for coal. 
However, discovery will not cease in any predictable 
time. In the year 1935 about 50 new oil and gas-yield- 
ing fields were found in the State of Texas alone, 
nor did discover}- lag in other areas. In the petroleum 
industry we maj- safely count on great additions to 
reserves through discovery of unexploited pay sands in 
many of the fields that are now producing, both by 
deeper drilling and by intensive prospecting of strata 
already penetrated. The successes attained in petro- 
leiun offer hope that resources of other minerals may 
also be increased. Over the world as a whole there is 
a possibility of enormous additions to available 
I'eserves. 

At the same time, we should guard against a too 
easy optimism, for the application of geophysical 
methods to the search for metals has encountered 
baffling obstacles of observation and interpretation. 
While the new geophysics is to be credited with find- 
ing numerous oil pools and with much success in the 
search for underground water supplies, it has found 
few new metal mines. With the instruments and the 
methods thus far developed, it has proved exceedingly 
diflicult to find metalliferous ore deposits of any type 
when concealed at depth. For this reason we may 
anticipate that, in the search for metal, geophysical 
methods will first be applied to enlarging the bound- 
aries of known mineralized areas. They have, for 
example, been used to locate a large extension of the 
gold-bearing formation of the South African Rand. 
In time, the methods so developed may be applied 
with greater chance of success to the far more difficult 
job of exploration in new areas where no sign of the 
presence of metal is afforded by the sm-face. 

Insofar as world supply of the minerals is con- 
cerned, there is little cause for immediate anxiety. 
It is true that most of the accessible parts of the earth 
have been at least casually inspected by the prospec- 
tor, but important deposits not accompanied by con- 
spicuous manifestations must await discovery in those 
regions where exploration is made difficult by the 
inliospitality of man or of nature. These include the 
very cold areas where climate and lack of transpor- 
tation make it hard to live and tlie surface covering 



Technological Trends 



151 



of tundra, moraine, ami ice make it liard to observe; 
the tropics wliere heat, disease, antl scant popuhition 
make travel and even life precarious, and jungle 
an<l swamp conceal surface indications of minerals; 
and the hinterlands of civilization in j)arts of Asia, 
Africa, and J^outh America where there is danger from 
unfriendly peoi)le. These regions are immense, ami 
even the scanty attention they have ret'eived has proved 
they contain imijortaiit supplies of minerals. How- 
ever, before they are explored and their mineral 
wealth made available, those areas that are more ac- 
cessible will be more intensively and scientifically 
prospected. 

It is believed that the intensive geologic attack, 
aided by an aggressiv-e technology, may reveal new 
types of mineral deposits and that the geophysical at- 
tack will reveal mineral resources that cannot be dis- 
covered by existing methods. 

Ultimate exhaustion of many minerals is inevitable, 
but in no case will exhaustion he catastro[)hic. Many 
imi)oi'tant minerals maintain their commanding posi- 
tion, even today, only because they are slightly cheaper 
or have slightl}' superior qualities to those of other 
substances that are available in abundance and that 
are clamoring for a market. 

The cost of intensive exploration will tend to con- 
centrate discoveries in the hands of organizations 
financially able to stand a heavy, long-continued outlay 
before compensating returns are realized. Judging 
from the experience of the petroleum industi-y, con- 
tinued advance in methods and effectiveness of dis- 
covery is intensified by the profit motive. Such ad- 
vance will demand an increase in the number and scope 
of research laboratories, since fundamental research 
is essential to the successful adaptation of geological 
and geophysical methods to mineral discovery. Work 
of this type can be effective only when there is stead- 
fast purpose and uninterrupted financial support, con- 
ditions which are often best found in the research or- 
ganizations of private enterprise. At the same time, 
fundamental research should be strengthened under 
academic and governmental auspices. 

It is to be anticipated that improved prospecting 
methods will rejuvenate some inactive areas and will 
bring im{)ortant activities into areas now unoccupied. 
They will force some develoiJment of highways, rail- 
roads, and pipe lines. They will probably result in 
some increase in the number of small centers of 
population. 

Technology in Coal Mining » 

In coal mining present technologic development cen- 
ters around machines to reduce hand labor. Limita- 



' By F. G. Tryon. The writer is deeply indebted to L. N. Plein and 
F. E. Berquist for information and criticism. 

ST78°— 37 11 



tions of space compel restricting our discussion to 
bituminous coal, though it will be understood that 
essentially parallel develoi^ments are in process under 
the shar])ly ilifferent physical conditions of the 
anthracite mines. 

Strip or Open-pit Mining. — The substitution of 
power for human muscle reaches its maximum in stri]> 
or open-cut mining. In limited areas where the coal 
seam lies close to the surface, the overlying dirt or 
rock may be removed with power shovels and the coal 
loaded into cai'S or trucks, usuallj' with smaller shovels 
of the same type. The use of open-cut methods is 
expanding, both in coal and in certain branches of 
metal mining (see fig. 28). The lines of technical 
advance have included the application of caterpillar 
mounts, replacement of steam by electric power, devel- 
opment of machine methods of shifting the tracks on 
which the coal or ore cars enter and leave the pit, or 
even elimination of the tracks by use of motor trucks. 
But the most important change has been the simple 
evolution in the size, power, and range of the shovel. 
Capacity of the dipper of the largest shovels has in- 
creased from a maximum of about 4 cubic yards in 
1914 to 32 cubic yards, and the physical limits have not 
yet been reached. These enormous machines can han- 
dle not only dirt but sometimes beds of limestone and 
shale and permit the removal of 50 feet of overburden 
to recover a 6-foot seam of coal. 

The immediate outlook points to further expansion 
of stripping as opj^osed to underground mining, 
though the long-run outlook is for exhaustion of the 
areas which can be worked by stripping. As tlie thick- 
ness of the overburden to be handled increases, the 
costs of stripping mount, and ultimately expansion of 
stripping will be checkmated by the competition of 
underground methods, which are also undergoing im- 
provement. The rise of open-cut mining poses an 
obvious problem of technologic unem])loyment. Only 
a half or a third as much labor as in underground 
mining may be required, and where conditions are 
especially favorable the method provides the cheapest 
fuel and metal thus far attained. 

Open-cut mining recovers a high percentage of the 
mineral resource but dissipates the soil resource. In 
some cases the surface has little or no value for agri- 
culture, but in still others it may be excellent farm 
land. Present practice leaves behind an irregular 
waste of barren subsoil, mixed oftentimes with broken 
rock, on which vegetation of any kind is slow to rees- 
tablish itself. It is estimated that a total of 30,000 
acres of land has been thus devastated by the mining 
of bituminous coal and lignite in the Mississippi Valley 
and Eastern States. In Illinois the total area suitable 
for stripping, and subject therefore to devastation, is 
estimated at 183,000 acres, about equal to the area 



152 



National Resources Committee 



recently reclaimed by the Italian Government in the 
draining of the Pontine Marshes. Some effort has 
been directed to planting the strip spoil banks with 
timber or fruit trees, but the scale of such measures of 
restoration in the United States is so far very small in 
comparison with the need. 

The Miner^s Task Underground. — The underground 
work of coal mining is divided among two main 
groups of workers: The miners proper or "tonnage 
men" who dig the coal at the working face, and the 
"day men" who carry on the auxiliary tasks of haul- 
age, ventilation, pumping, power supply, timbering, 
and maintenance. Among the tasks of the day men, 
the chief field of mechanization has been haulage. 
Animal power has given place to mechanical traction 
on main-line haulage in all but the smallest mines. 
Even in the gathering of cars from individual working 
places to be made up into trains, the mule is rapidly 
giving way to the faster and more powerful electric 
locomotive, and low-built machines have been do- 
\cl()ped for use in thin seams. In some areas electri- 
fication of haulage is now approaching the satura- 
tion point. A prospective change to Diesel locomotives 
will be discussed later in connection with mine safetj'. 
Another line of expected development is increased use 
of belt or trough conveyors for transporting coal from 
the face to central loading points, or even to the 
surface. 

At present the most active field of mechanization 
relates to the work of the men at the face who consti- 
tute, under the system of hand loading, from 50 to 70 
percent of the entire working force. To understand 
the great changes that are in prospect it is well to 
fix in mind the principal steps in the work of the 
old-fashioned pick miner in the bituminous coal fields. 
Generally, though not always, he took care of his 
room, setting the necessary props and incidentally 
carrying the track forward as the face advanced. 
(Sometimes, where the roof was too low or other con- 
ditions prevented the mule or the earlier types of 
locomotive from entering his room, he was expected 
to push the empty mine car up to the face, and push 
the loads back.) The labor directly associated willi 
digging the coal involved three main tasks : Undercut- 
ting the seam, boring shot holes and preparing the 
charge of powder, and shoveling the coal when broken 
down into the mine car. 

The Cutting Machine. — ^The first of these tasks to 
be mechanized was the undercutting of the seam. 
Lying on his side, the old-time miner was expected 
to cut with his pick a horizontal slot or kerf some 2 
or 3 feet back under the bottom of the seam so that 
when loosened it would fall. This arduous and also 
very dangerous task early attracted the attention of 
inventors. Practical cutting machines were introduced 



in the late eighties and have undergone steady im- 
provement. From 5 percent in 1891. the year of the 
first statistical record, the proportion cut by machine 
gradually increased to 84 percent in 1934. In the 
meantime the machines available have so increased in 
size, mobility, and speed that the average daily ton- 
nage per machine has been multiplied threefold (fig. 
25). Machines are now available which will make 
horizontal cuts anywhere in the coal face, and also ver- 
tical shearing cuts either in the middle or along the side 
of the room, thereby increasing the proportion of lump 
coal and facilitating the subsequent task of loading. 
In most districts, the cutting machine is now about as 
widely used as conditions permit (in some fields it 
is not readily applicable) although improvements in 
design and steady replacement of less efficient types 
will doubtless continue. We mention the cutter and 
plot its course in figure 25 because it illustrates the 
time often required to bring a new machine into 
general use. 

The miner's next task, the drilling of shot holes, is 
still generally done by hand with a long steel auger. 
But where haulage has been electrified it is a simple 
matter to bring power to the face and to bore the 
holes W'ith an electric drill. This practice has now 
extended to something like 15 or 20 percent of the 
total output and seems destined to spread over most 
of the industry. 

To prepare the shot itself requires considerable time, 
but little or no strength. Tliere is a tendency, however, 
to provide the miner with prepared cartridges and clay 
ready for tamping, and to assign the task of setting off 
the charge to special shot firers, sometimes when the 
main shift has left the mine. To permit blasting while 
men are at work, mechanical substitutes for powder 
have been developed, such as cylinders of compressed 
carbon dioxide or air, which can be discharged with 
shattering effect. 

Mechanical Loading.- — After the coal is shot down, 
comes the greatest of the hand miner's tasks, that of 
shoveling the coal into the mine car. This involves 
lifting the coal vertically a height from 2 to 5 feet 
iuid casting it horizontally perhaps 6 or 12 feet. The 
tonnage handled each year equals the total weight 
moved in excavating the Panama Canal, and until re- 
cently this work was all done by human muscle. At 
a wage of $5.50 a da}', the mechanical work developed 
by the miner in this task costs the equivalent of about 
$7.50 a kilowatt-hour. So great and so heavy labor 
was early a target for inventors, but the cramped 
space and other obstacles to movement underground 
defeated efforts at mechanization until recently, and 
long after the work of undercutting was successfully 
mechanized, hand loading continued to require armies 



Technological Trends 



153 



of heavy labor. As late as 1923, hand shoveling in 
the coal mines was the largest single task of some 
490,000 men. 

The first machine for loading in rooms to attract 
public notice appeared in 1903 but disputes with the 
mine workers over the wage rate to be paid and oper- 
ating difficulties ]irevenled its adoption. Other ma- 
chines M-ere in use privately by 1918, but the com- 
mercial application of the mobile-type loading ma- 
chine may be said to date from 1922 when the iirst 
machines designed by Joseph F. Joy appeared upon 
the market. 

The number and variety of the machines now avail- 
able is surprising. There are machines designed for 
driving entries and for loading in I'ooms, and still 
others for long-face work; machines designed to move 
on rails and others with caterpillar mount which 
ci'awl about under their own power. They include 
mobile loading machines which pick or push the coal 
onto an elevating conveyor, or gather it up by the 
motion of ingenious clawlike arms; the underground 
jjower shovel which braces itself between the roof and 
floor with a hydraulic jack, thrusts its scoop into the 
pile of broken coal, swings around and ejects the load 
into the waiting mine car; (he duckbill attached to a 
shaker conveyor which shuffles its way under the pile 
of coal ; and the scraper, dragging the broken coal to a 
loading platform at the end of a long face. 

These machines, where successfully emjjloyed, vir- 
tually eliminate hand shoveling, except for incidental 
clean up. Still other machines, although not abolish- 
ing the use of the shovel, greatly reduce the labor. 
Material savings are made by portable elevating ma- 
chines known as pit-car loaders. With this type of 
machine tiie shoveler need raise the coal only a few 
inches from the floor to a conveyor which then lifts 
ic into the mine car. Finally there is the hand-loaded 
face conveyor, first used in the United States in 1905 
and later reintroduced from Europe about 1911, which 
if it does not eliminate the hand shovel at least cuts 
down the labor by reducing the height to which the 
miner must lift the coal, and the distance to which 
he must cast it. The face conveyor also serves to 
transport the coal from the face out to a main con- 
veyor, or to the power haulage way along the enti-y, 
thereby eliminating the heavy task of car pushing 
sometimes required and otherwise facilitating trans- 
port. For these reasons the face conveyor is especially 
useful in thin seams. It is probable that the savings 
ultimately possible have not yet been realized in many 
conveyor installations. 

The tonnage of bituminous coal loaded by use of 
machines of all of these types has increased from 
1.500,000 in 1923, the year of the first statistical record. 



to 47,000,000 in 1935, and now amounts to 13.6 percent 
of the underground production. (The tonnage of 
Pennsylvania anthracite similarly loaded has increased 
to 9,300,000 or 21 percent of the underground output.) 
For the industry as a whole, the new machinery, there- 
fore, is just getting under way. That it is destined to 
spread very widely is shown by the fact that in some 
districts the great bulk of the output is ah'eady mech- 
anized. In 1935, 90 percent of the Wyoming i)roduc- 
tion was mechanically loaded, 62 percent of the Indiana 
production, and 56 percent of the Illinois production. 
The process of trial and error is adaj)f ing the new 
machinery to the widely varying conditions of different 
mines. Present indications are that the scraper type is 
not likely to expand much further, for, unless the bot- 
tom is hard, it gathers dirt along with the coal; that 
the pit-car loader is an intermediate stage to be re- 
placed later by full meclianization ; and that the types 
most likely to find ultimate acceptance are the mobile 
loader, the duckbill-equipped conveyor, and various 



. , . , 1 . . , . . ■ ■ . 


1 1 . 1 










■ ' ' ' 




MACHINE CUTTING 
AND LOADING 




■ 




■ 








y 




^ 






■ 


: 


'ER CEN 
BV MA 


T CUT 




y 










■ 


^ 








PER CENT LOADED 
BY MACHINE *^.. 


^ 


^ 


- 




1905 I9r0 



FiGCRH 25. Technologic trends in tile Ijitumiuous coal mining in<liislry 
(excluding strip mines). 

Tlie nndeicutting machine, introduced in the late SO's, has now about 
reached the saturation point. Its course is being followed by the 
loading machine, introduced commercially about 1922 and now affect- 
ing 13 percent of the output. Loading machinery of one type or 
another seems- destined to spread over virtually all the industry. 
Parallel advances have occurred in mechanical cleaning by washing. 

The result of these factors is a notable increase in the output per man 
per da/ which bids fair to continue. Meantime, the increase in the 
size and efBciency of machines is indicated by the growing tonnage 
per cutting machine per day. 

The decrease in daily output per man and per machine after 1932 is 
associated with the shortening of hours following the N. K. A. code. 



154 



National Resources Committee 



forms of hand-loaded face conveyors, which perform 
functions of transport as well as of loadinji. SelectioTi 
from the alternative types is governed largely by seam 
conditions. Oftentimes two or more t^'pes may be 
advantageously used in the same mine, and locally 
there are signs of a tendency to combine mobile ma- 
chines for loading with conveyor units for initial 
transportation of the coal. In some veins obstacles 
may possibly prevent the use of such machinery, but 
the opinion may be hazarded that by one device or 
another the great majority of the larger mines can be 
mechanized, with a capacity sufficient to supply the 
national requirements. It must be recognized, how- 
ever, that much time may often be required to find the 
right type of machine, to make the radical changes in 
mining practice necessary and to train men in its use. 
There are also many old mines where short expectancy 
of life and the cost of changing over the existing lay- 
out would outweigh the possible saving. Technical 
difficulties and inertia, therefore, combine to force a 
liig between invention and application. Truck mines 
serving a local market may survive with hand loading 
by virtue of their advantage in shipping costs. 

The rate at which the meclianization of loading can 
go on within a given area depends partly on the wage 
rate. The districts of the West where mechanical 
loading lias now become general were marked by rela- 
tively high wage rates, and conversely the districts 
where wage rates were low, found little incentive to 
mechanize. With the recovery in wage rates which 
began in October 1933, sales of equipment have multi- 
plied and numerous companies in the East and Soutli 
that formerly saw no advantage in mechanical load- 
ing are now installing macliinery. In 1936 more ma- 
chines have been sold in West Virginia than in any 
other State. 

Some light on the possible rate of increase is thrown 
by the past record of the introduction of the cutting 
machine given in figure 25. The first 10 years of the 
loading machine have followed a course much like that 
of its predecessor. It is well to remember, however, 
that the cutting machine had to make its way in an 
industry which was just beginning to use electric 
power. The loading machine enters at a time when 
primary haulage is already electrified in all but the 
smaller mines, making the task of bringing power to 
the face comparatively easy. The loader may there- 
fore spread more rapidly than did the cutter. 

Another new machine is the coal saw, a very thin 
cutter which is used to sever the block of coal on two, 
three, or four sides, instead of on one or at most two as 
is now done with the standard cutting machine. Saws 
have been introduced, but are not yet used on a sub- 
stantial scale. 



Mechanical Cleaning. — Mechanical loading under- 
ground has also stimulated changes in the work of 
preparation on the surface. The hand miner was ex- 
pected to watch for pieces of slate or boney coal as 
he shoveled, and to throw them back into the waste. 
The loading machine could not do this, and where the 
amount of impure material was serious, it became 
necessary to transfer the work of removing it to the 
surface. The change came at a time when inventors 
were already engaged on the task of improving quality 
by the reduction of ash and sulphur, and when new 
methods of mechanical cleaning were under way. The 
fundamental problem is to separate the coal from the 
slightlj' heavier impurities, and the agencies used have 
included shaking tables, moving currents of water and 
of air, and a suspension of fine sand in water, which 
floats the coal like a heavy solution. Such methods are 
found to be the only practicable way of cleaning the 
tmaller sizes, though for the sizes above about 4 inches, 
picking by hand on a conveyor table remains the best 
metiiod. The tonnage of bituminous mechanically 
cleaned has increased from 3.8 percent of the total out- 
jnit in 1906 to 12.3 percent in 1935 (fig. 25), and fur- 
ther extension is assured." 

Minor developments in the general field of prepara- 
tion include removal of dust by air or hy treatment 
with calcium chloride, or with oil sprays, and the 
appearance of "packageil fuel" — cube-shaped bricjuets 
wrapped in paper. 

It will be understood that at the same time marked 
advances have occurred in the prejjaration of I'einisyl- 
vania anthracite. Indeed, the ait of coal preparation 
in America largely developed in the anthracite region, 
wliere natural conditions and marki't ])references 
stimulated gi'eat attention to the sizing and cleaning 
of the coal. 

Seine Social Consequences. — The mechanical changes 
under way in the bituminous coal mines constitute a 
major fechnical development. Mechanical cleaning 
yields a better and more uniform product, mechanical 
loading reduces the cost. 

At a wage rate of 80 cents an hour, savings with (he 
large mobile machines that entirely eliminate hand 
shoveling are claimed in the order of 15 to 55 cents a 
ton. Against this nuist usually be set some sacrifice 
in sales prices or an increase in cleaning costs. The 
loading machine usually results in a smaller propor- 
tion of lump coal, and it often increases the i)ercentage 
of ash so nuich that tlie operator must install mechani- 



• As only the smaller sizes require ineclianical treatment, tlie total 
production of tlio mines equipped for meclianical cleaning represents a 
much larger fraction of tlie national output — 24 percent in 1935. For 
this reason the curve of percentage mechanically cleaned in fig. 25 is 
plotted on a larger scale thau the percentage mechanically cut and 
loaded. 



Technological Trends 



155 



cal cleaning at a cost of perhaps 10 or 20 cents a ton. 
But there remains under favorable conditions a ma- 
terial saving. Savings with pit-car loaders or con- 
vej'ors are smaller. AVage rates being equal, therefore, 
these inventions point to reduction in price to the 
consumer. The actual course of prices dejjends largely 
upon the course of wages, and as wages in some dis- 
tricts fell during the depression to bare subsistence 
levels, future prices may be higher than the depression 
low despite the savings in the man-hours required to 
produce the coal. 

The machines introduce new accident hazards. Tliey 
may raise enough dust to be trying on the men. They 
may also influence the percentage of coal recovered in 
mining. Under some conditions, the use of face con- 
veyors permits the mining of thin coal now regarded 
as unworkable. Under still others, use of the mobile 
loader, especially, may induce practices that decrease 
I'ecovery. The question deserves further study, for 
the wastes of coal in mining are already grave — the 
avoidable losses in the bituminous mines averaging 20 
l)ercent, or 150,000,000 tons in an ordinary year.'" 

Overshadowing other social effects is the possible in- 
fluence upon the mine workers. The short-run effect 
is to inject an element of technologic unemployment in 
an industry where other factors have already reduced 
the niuiiber of jobs. The decline of 247,000 in the 
number of men employed at bituminous coal mines 
since 1923 is due chiefly to other causes — to the liquida- 
tion of surplus capacity created by the war and to 
changes in demand associated with fuel efficiency, oil 
and gas competition, and the depression of general 
business. These other causes have thus far over- 
shadowed the factor of technologic displacement, yet 
it is clear that the introduction of mechanical loading 
does work to curtail jobs. Any attempt to estimate 
the extent of such displacement requires much more 
accurate data than are yet available. A few mines 
which passed from 100 percent hand loading to 100 
percent loading with mobile machines show a reduc- 
tion in the man-hours required per ton of coal amount- 
ing to about 35 percent in the course of 10 years. How 
far these are typical it is not yet possible to say. Dis- 
placement with pit-car loaders and conveyors appears 
to be much less, while mechanical cleaning usually 
works to increase the number of jobs. 

No forecast can be attempted here of the amount of 
future labor displacement or of the rate at which it 
can proceed. The answer depends on many imponder- 
ables, such as the future of demand, improvements in 
the machines, the bargaining power of the mine work- 



" Rice, George S., Fieldner. A. C, and Tryon, F. G., Consorv.qtion of 
Coal Resources, Third World I'ower Conference, Washington, T>. C, 
1936. 



ers, the wage rate, and the hours of labor. The his- 
tory of the cutting machine indicates that it may be 
many years before the introduction of the loading 
machine is complete. Yet it would indicate, also, that 
e-xcept as other factors operate to spread the available 
work, tlic new machines may locally create a definite 
l)roblem of unemployment. Obviously, this will be 
most apparent in districts where hand loading is still 
entrenched. 

At the same time, it is clear that to attempt to block 
the advance of mechanization would offer no solution 
for the difficulties of the industry. Unless it is pro- 
posed to throw the entire burden on the mine workers 
by cutting wage rates, mechanization is the chief hope 
of meeting the competition of other fuels or other 
coal fields paying lower rates. It is a .striking fact 
that in Wyoming, Montana, Illinois, and Indiana the 
only mines which seemed clearly able to survive the 
intensely competive conditions of the last decade — 
aside from strip pits and little truck mines — were the 
mines that managed to mechanize. Tliey have main- 
tained employment far better than the mines which 
were unable to adopt the new technique. In any dis- 
trict where costs can be reduced by mechanization, 
failure to mechanize in the face of competition may 
actually reduce employment more than mechanization 
itself. 

The long-run effects of mechanization are clearly 
favorable to the miner. They lighten his arduous 
task, increase his productivity, facilitate the payment 
of adequate wages, and strengthen the industry's posi- 
tion in competing with other fuels. Technologic prog- 
ress is essential to meet the growing market pressure 
from petroleum and natural gas. Helping to offset 
the displacement of jobs in the mines is the additional 
employment generated in manufacturing the new 
macliinery. 

The loading machinery likewise affects the kind of 
worker needed. Certain of the old skills are no longer 
required though familiarity with the customs and the 
dangers of life underground remains essential. The 
machines put a premium on quick-reaction time, adap- 
tability, intelligence, mechanical knowledge, and abil- 
ity to work under supervision. They favor younger 
men and the prospect of working up to machine jobs 
tends to attract youths with better education who 
foi'merly had no interest in the mines. Older men 
without machine experience are handicapped and it 
is possible that the young men now recruited for serv- 
ice with the machines may be superannuated at an 
earlier ^ge than prevailed under hand loading. The 
changes in cliaracter of the working force will be dis- 
cussed further in recapitulating the effects of tech- 
nology upon the mineral industries as a whole. 



156 



National Resources Committee 



Petroleum and Natural Gas " 

Technique of Oil and Gas Production. — The simple 
technique for drilling oil and gas wells and for re- 
covering those minerals, that was practiced during the 
eai'ly days of the petroleum industry, is changing 
rapidly. For example, ojierators now imdertake to 
drill wells 7,000 to 10,000 feet deep with as much 
confidence as was felt, a few years ago, in under- 
taking to attain less than half those depths. The 
changes are less in fundamental method than in im- 
provement of design and quality of equipment and 
better understanding of the difficulties that must be 
overcome. The equipment and materials now avail- 
able are strong enough to withstand the stresses that 
would normally be expected in a well 15,000 feet deep, 
which is more tlian 2,000 feet deeper than the deepest 
hole yet drilled and 5,000 feet deeper than the deepest 
well yielding oil or natural gas. 

Improvement in understanding of the difficulties 
to be overcome and in design and application of 
methods and instruments to combat those difficulties 
have kept pace with improvement in equipment. 
Most deep holes are surveyed periodically as drilling 
progresses, and the drilling operations are so con- 
ducted as to insure the verticality of the bore; prac- 
tices have been devised to decrease the number of holes 
that are lost due to drilling equipment sticking or 
twisting off in the hole; the experienced drillers now 
detect the inuninence of blow-outs of high-pressure 
gas which, in the early years, wrecked many drilling 
wells and were a substantial cause of human casualties, 
and take steps that either prevent or control the ex- 
plosive escape of gas; cements and technique have 
been developed that will permit the casing in deep 
wells to be securely anchored in spite of the high 
temperatui'es characteristic of great depth; and each 
of many minor improvements has added its bit to the 
technology of deep drilling. 

The improvement in methods of increasing the flow 
of wells, when once drilled, has been equally remark- 
able. The percentage of wells that, a few years ago, 
would have been abandoned as dry or, at best, would 
have been very small wells has been sharply decreased. 
In some areas that were practically abandoned a few 
years ago because profitable production could not be 
secured, excellent wells are now being completed in 
pay sands once considered worthless. In other areas 
Avells which api)arently were approaching the end of 
their productive life have been rejuvenated. 

Improvements in discovery methods promise to be 
even more important than improvement in completion 
technique. "We now know that in the past many 



^ By K. C. Ileald. stair gcolciplse. Cult" Oil C.irporation. 



prospective wells were abandoned because of an er- 
roneous belief on the part of the driller either that 
oil or gas pays had not been penetrated by the hole, 
or that their nature was such that profitable produc- 
tion was highly improbable. Various practices and 
instnunents have been developed and successfully ap- 
plied, proving that the criteria on which the early 
driller i)iuned his faith were not dependable, and as a 
result oil is today being discovered in holes that, in 
the past, would have been abandoned as absolute fail- 
ures. ITiis both increases the available supply of pe- 
troleum and gas and reduces the losses of the oil and 
gas industries. 

The technique of producing the oil from wells is 
also being revolutionized. Scientific analysis of the 
conditions that control the occurrence of oil and gas 
has indicated many desirable modifications of tradi- 
tional practice. The immature stage of the attack is 
manife.stetl by many of the treatises and discussions 
dealing with the conditions that affect the business of 
recovering oil and gas fi'om their sands. There is a 
tendency, characteristic of adolescence rather than of 
maturity, to theorize far beyond proved facts, but the 
trend is healthy and toward improved effectiveness. 

One of (he manifestations of this changing tech- 
nique is the recognition of the role of natural gas in 
forcing oil from the underground reservoir. "Wastes 
of gas continue on a very large scale, but from eco- 
nomic more than technical causes, and great progress 
in the conservation of gas pressure, and in the use of 
gas itself has been made. Another change is the will- 
ingness to take oil slowly from a well, in spite of the 
delayed return on the invested capital, if thereby an 
inci-eased ultimate recovery- may be hoped for. 

Many very important problems are just beginning 
to be recognized. For example, it is now known that 
rarely is an oil-bearing sand uniform in texture. 
Laboratoi-y studies indicate that oil and gas will be 
exhausted from the coarser-textured layers of the sand, 
and that water will invade these layers and appear in 
the oil wells long before the finely textured layers are 
depleted of their oil. Under such circumstances it is 
to be expected that after a period so much of the fluid 
pumped from a well will be water that the operation 
will not return a profit and the well must be 
abandoned, leaving behind much of the oil in the fine- 
grained pay. No effective method for combating this 
condition has been developed. In fact, no serious 
attack lias been attempted. 

During the past few years there has been a growth 
of the activities designed to recover oil from fields that, 
iMuler traditional methods of oj^eration, would be re- 
garded as almost or quite exhausted. It has been 
proved that in many of these old fields much more oil 



Technological Trends 



157 



is left in the sands than is recovered from the wells. 
Injection of tr«s and of water under pressure has suh- 
stantiallj' increased recovery in some areas, but a hu<j;e 
volume of oil is left behind by even the best of present 
methods. Increased efl'ectiveness can come only witli 
increased knowledge of tlie laws that govern the oc- 
currence of oil in rocks and that will permit its re- 
covery from the tiny interstices in which it is tra])i)ed. 
Tliere is an encouraging increase in the numbei- of 
operations designed to recover oil from semi-depleted 
fields and in tlie researcli under way in company lab- 
oratories and educational centers. 

The trend is toward more scientific operation. We 
may say tliat the possibilities of api)lied .science in 
the field of oil and gas production are just beginning 
to be appreciated, and may predict that tlie scientific 
attack will be intensified. It should lead to tlie em- 
ployment of more technically trained men, both in the 
field and in the laboratory, and also should demand 
an increase in unskilled labor due to the develo])ment 
of new jjractices. In short, the petroleum and natural 
gas industries will benefit from technologic employ- 
ment. 

Present developments indicate that we may look 
forward to a great deal of activity, not oidy in new 
fields but also in old, semi-depleted fields with neces- 
sary employment of capital and labor. Tliere will 
also probably be an increase of the small industries 
furnishing special service to the oil and gas industry — 
consulting laboratories, well cementing companies, well 
surveying organizations, casing perforators, and 
others. 

Pipe Lines. — The fluid nature of oil and gas early 
led to the development of a specialized form of trans- 
portation to carry the product from field to refinery 
or place of use. The pipe line systems form an essen- 
tial part of the petroleum and natural gas industries 
and in most instances are clo.sely integrated either with 
llie stages of production or with refining and distribu- 
tion, or with both. The evolution of pipe-line trans- 
portation is one of the chief technologic contributions 
of oil and gas engineering. Technical improvement 
has developed step by step from small beginnings, and 
has gathered momentum in the last 15 years, as indi- 
cated for example by the increasing radius of trans- 
mission of natural gas. Among the specific advances 
are the introduction of welded joints, higher operating 
pressures, labor-saving machinery in trenching and in 
laying pipe, and the appearance of thin-walled, seam- 
less pipe of high-carbon steel in diameters up to 24 
inches. The growth and present extent of the pipe 
line systems are shown in the maps and charts of the 
report on transportation, which discusses the pipe 
lines in greater detail as a part of the transportation 
equipment of the country as a whole. 



Indicators of the rapidity of technical advance in 
the oil and gas industry are given in figure 26.'- 

Refining. — Petroleum refining in America was born 
in 1855, before the first commercial oil well was 
drilled, when Benjamin Silliman, Jr., of Yale Uni- 
versity, determined that "rock oil" sent to him from 
Pennsylvania could, by distillation, be separated into 
fractions some of which were suitable for the ])roduc- 
tion of gas, for ilhunination, and for lubrication. 
The scientific attack on refining problems has steadily 
intensified and it is stated that today "in the United 
States chemical work in petroleum and related fields 
C(juals in quality, as well as in volume, the chemical 
Mork in all other fields combined." '^ Petroleum re- 
filling is therefore very properly discussed in a later 
chapter dealing with chemical engineering and the 
present chapter need sketch only its relations io the 
primary task of mineral technology in (levelo])ing 
the resources of the under-earth. 

The record of the response of the refining industry 
to the ci'eation of new needs augurs well f(n- its fu- 
ture iJroductivity. For years the products needed 
from petroleum were kerosene and lubricants. These 
needs were met and products that could not be uti- 
lized were wasted. However, knowledge of the nature 
and availability of gasoline permitted the invention 
and development of the internal-combustion engine. 
The great and persistent increase in demand for gas- 
oline was met in part by discovery of additional crude 
oil, and in part by invention of the cracking pi-ocess. 
Were it not for cracking, refiners would, today, have 
to process almost twice as much crude oil in order to 
supply the demand for gasoline. (See fig. 26.) The 
possibilities of additional benefits from this process are 
far from fully explored. 

Characteristics of gasoline obtained by cracking 
permitted modification of engine design resulting in 
economies of construction and performance, lowering 
both the initial cost and the cost of operation of auto- 
mobiles. Additional progress in this same direction 
is promised by polymerization, a newcomer. Prod- 
ucts supplied by this process have permitted impor- 
tant changes in design of aeronautic engines — changes 



'- The tliita in fig. 26 are derived as follows : Tlie depth to tlie 
sliallowest pay sand in new pools found is computed by N, 11. Fitzgerald 
from records of 706 oil pools described in "Petroleum Develojiment and 
Technology", Transactions. American Institute of Mining and Metal- 
lurgical Engineers, vol. 118, 1936. All pools for which depth of shal- 
lowest producing horizon was reported have been included. The record 
of deei)est wells is from DeGoIyer. "Historical Notes on the Development 
of the Technique of Prospecting for Petroleum,'' quoted by Pogue. Fuel 
consumption per barrel of crude run to stills is from F. G. Tryon and 
H. O. Rogers "Statistical Studies of Progress in Fuel Efficiency," Trans- 
actions. Second World I'ower Conference, vol. VI. p. 244, Berlin, 1930, 
with dafa for 1930 to 1934 supplied by N. Yaworski. Percentage yield 
of gasoline from G. R. Hopkin.s, annual petroleum reports of U. S. 
Bureau of Mines, with data from Census of Manufactures prior to 1916. 

"Hopkins, M. B. Chemical Trends in the Petroleum Industry. World 
Petroleum, July 1936. 



158 

that could not be considered practicable before both 
the quality and quantity of the fuel supply for these 
improved engines were assured. It is believed that 
improvement in automotive engines will fullnw the 
road opened by the aeronautic engineer. 

The development of lubricants has been equally im- 
portant. In fact, technology does not at present know 
of processes that could supply our needs for lubri- 
cants from raw materials other than i)c'trolouia. The 
present trend is to refine petroleum so that the yield of 
gasoline will be as great as possible, at the expense 
of all other possible petroleum ])roducts. "\Mien 




NATURAL GAS -PIPE LINES 



WOAKINC PRE55Ufl£ OF NEWEST LINE T 
CALIFORNIA SYSTEM ^ | I 



,.J 



^^U 



Imaximijm transmission distance 
all svstcms (approximate) 





1 REFINERY EFFICIENCY 1 
















i ^ 


^ 






ruCL 

PER BAftm 


CONSUMPTtC'.^ 
-L RON TC 




\ 


— «^ 


















, 




1 












^ 




PERCENTAGE YIELD 1 ^ 
Of GASOLINE ^"-fc.,!. 
FROM CRUDE 1 

■. . . 1 , , ! , , 1 


. .i.. .. 1.. .. 1.. ..1... - 



I89S 1900 I90& 1910 I9l5 



1920 1925 1930 I93S 



FiGUBB 26. Indicators of technical progress in the oil and gas industry. 

Technological advance in oil and gas production is indicated by the 
increasing depth of drilling. Several wells are producing at 10,000 
feet, one has been drilled to 12,700 feet, and still deeper holes are 
anticipated. (Data from DeGolycr and others.) 

Progress in pipe-line construction is indicated by tlie increasing radius 
of transmission of natural gas. This is made possible by stronger 
pipe, welded joints, increased worltlng pressures and capacity, and 
reductions in cost of trenching and laying pipe. 

Progress in refining is indicated by the increase in yield of gasoline and 
the declining consumption of fuel per barrel of crude oil refined. 



National Resources Committee 

shortage of crude petroleum is definitely in sight it 
is to be expected that this tendency will be reversed 
and that the eli'ort will be concentrated on high yields 
of lubricants. 

The basic qualities that control lubricating value 
are not well understood. It may be said that devel- 
opment in the production and skilled use of lubricants 
is in its infancy in spite of the hundreds of lubricat- 
ing compounds, each for a specialized purpose, now 
available. Solvent refining, a development of recent 
years, has added gi-eatly to the flexibility with which 
a desired lubricant can be produced. Increased de- 
velopment and application of this process to a wider 
range of uses is anticipated. 

Recently the demand for furnace oils for domestic 
heating has swelled to unprecedented proportions. 
So far as published information will indicate, this de- 
mand has found the technologist somewhat unprepared. 
There appears to be a dearth of studies to determine 
the most desirable qualities and methods of producing 
and utilizing these oils. 

There have been a multitude of other developments, 
unimportant to the petroleum industry because of the 
comparatively small volume of material involved, but 
highly important in their contribution to the etfec- 
tiveness and comfort of life. New chemicals are being 
found, almost from day to day. Some have already 
found places in industry and promise to become indis- 
pensable. Others will displace materials now in use. 
The hardship on the present purveyoi-s of the dis- 
placed materials will be compensated, from a national 
viewpoint, by the increase of available resources for 
a given purpose. Others may result in the develop- 
ment of new industries. Some are filling needs not pre- 
viously met, as, for example, the effective insecticides 
and fungicides that recently have appeared. 

It is encouraging that the most important develop- 
ments are in the direction of conservation. Thus the 
polymerization process utilizes i"aw materials that pre- 
viously were either wasted or burned under boilers. 
Cracking makes gasoline out of raw materials that 
earlier were considered suitable only for fuel. Solvent 
refining promises to permit tlie manufacture of valu- 
able lubricants from raw materials previously con- 
sidered unsuitable. 

The record of refinery construction during the past 
2 years is evidence of the seriousness with which the 
refining industry is undertaking to apply recent im- 
provements in technology. In fact technology is re- 
sponsible in part for the fact that there is today sub- 
stantially more refinery capacity in the United States 
than is needed to supply the Nation's needs of refined 
products. The mere fact that a plant exists does not 
justify its operation. We are long on refineries, but 



Technological Trends 



159 



we are short on refineries competent to utilize crude 
l^ctroleiim to the best advantage. 

Tiiere is no apparent prospect of interruption of the 
trend toward intensive tccimologic attack on relinery 
problems with resultant improvement of products now 
in demand, development of new products, and conver- 
sion to higher use of moi-e and more of the available 
raw material. 

Motor Fuel and Lubricants from Other Rata Mate- 
rials. — Much has been written about the possibility of 
securing motor fuel and lubricants fi-om substitute 
raw materials such as coal and oil shale. The develop- 
ment of methods of utilizing these alternative sources 
is among the most important achievements in the field 
of mineral technology and has gone far enough to 
eflfectively dispel the bogey of a break-down of civil- 
ization through failure of the petroleum supply. It 
is essential to realize, however, that the alternative 
sources are inherently high-cost, and available — by any 
techniques now Iviiown — oidy at prices several times 
what American consumers are accustomed to pay. At 
jjrcscnt oil shale and coal contribute only an insignifi- 
cant part of the world's supplj' of motor fuel and 
nothing of its lubricants. 

Benzol, wliich is a liquid fuel suitable for use in 
internal-combustion engines, is recovered as a byprod- 
uct in converting coal into high-temperature coke such 
as is used in the iron and steel industry. At ]iresent 
the world's production of benzol is about 0,000,000 
barrels a year, only part of which is available for motor 
fuel since there is an established demand for other 
purposes. If the entire world production were utilized 
as motor fuel it would supply only about ly^, percent 
of the demand for motor fuel in the United States 
alone. 

There has been a slow development of low-tempera- 
ture coke plants. By this process half to two-thirds 
of a barrel of liquid oil can be obtained per ton of coal, 
and this oil can be converted into motor fuel and fuel 
oil subject to somewhat more tlian normal refining 
losses. The quantity of crude oil produced at the three 
small plants now operating in the United States is at 
most a few thousand barrels a year. If all the bitu- 
minous coal mined in the United States in 1935 had 
been subjected to low-temperature carbonization it 
might have yielded, allov.ing for refining losses, about 
100,000,000 ban-els of motor fuel, or about one-fourth 
of our domestic demand. A market would have to be 
found for at least 280,000,000 tons of low-temperature 
coke. The investment in plant would be stupendous. 
It seems obvious that no substantial supplement to our 
supply of petroleum from this source will be available 
during the next 10 years. 

Hydrogenation of coal probably has intrigued the 
lay mind more than any other j)roposed process for 

877S»— 37 V2 



securing motor fuel and lubricants from coal. There 
is a popular belief that coal can be liquefietl, combined 
\\\i\\ hydrogen, and made to yield any desired type of 
liquid oil. Actually, although work on this process 
has been in progress for 23 years since Bergius first 
announced that he had succeeded in liquefying coal 
and combining it with hydrogen to produce desirable 
types of liquid hydr()carl)ons, there are today less than 
a half-dozen j^lants operating on a commercial scale. 
All of these are maintained by Government aid in 
comitries that have to import most or all of their 
jietroleum requirements. The most intensive develop- 
ment has been in Germany and in England. The 
actual i)roduction of the German works has been less 
than one and a Juilf million barrels per year, which 
would be hardly a day's supply for the automobiles of 
the United States. The total production to date from 
the English works has been less than 2 million barrels. 
The cost of this motor fuel is indicated by a statement 
credited to the head of the German Wintershall Co." 
to the effect that the cost ratio between imported and 
home-produced motor fuel was as 7 to 25. In other 
words, each gallon of motor fuel produced from coal 
cost somewhat more than three times as much as a 
gallon of imported motor fuel manufactured from 
petroleum. 

No lubricating oil has been produced from coal on 
a commercial scale so far as the writer can learn. 

Alcohol can be used as a fuel in internal-combustion 
engines, and many nations, under the pressure of in- 
terested groups or of the desire to develop a domestic 
supply of fuel for their automobiles, have passed 
laws requiring a certain amount of alcohol to be mixed 
\vith all gasoline used in automobiles. The result has 
been to greatly increase either the dii"ect or the 
indirect cost of motor fuel. Experience to date indi- 
cates that if we had to rely exclusively on alcohol 
produced by methods now prevalent in European coun- 
tries, the cost of motor fuel would be increased by 300 
to 1,000 percent. 

However, since alcohol is a serviceable fuel, we may 
anticipate the development of processes that will de- 
crease the cost of producing alcohol and it -will prob- 
ably be used to supplement gasoline should the need 
arise. 

Oil shale is a third possible source of synthetic 
motor fuel. In the United States alone there is more 
potential motor fuel in oil shale than will ever be 
I^roduced from the oil fields of this country. How- 
ever, only so much is commercially available as can 
be produced at a cost that will justify its use. At the 



" Germany's Synthetic Motor Fuel Production. Petroleum Times, 
Alay IG, 1936. 



160 



National Resources Committee 



nioiiK'nt (his iinioiiiits to zero. The status of oil shale 
was admirably described by Gavin,'° who said : 

It is hardly believed tliat sliale oil, considered in a large 
way, will be a competitor of petroleum ; it is more likely to be 
a slowly developed successor of petrolouin. 

The writer liclieves that the oil shale industry will ulti- 
mately be an industry of great magnitude and commercial 
importance in this country, but many years and much money 
will be required before it reaches this status. In its last 
analysis, it is an industry comparable with the low-grade-ore 
mining industries of the Western States and, like them, will 
require the services of the highest types of business, executive 
and technical skill, hacked by large capital, and which can 
afford and be prepared to wait a considerable time for a con- 
servative return on the investment. 

Althouprh the above was written 12 years ajrc it 
applies with equal force today. It is not anticipated 
that the production of sliale oil will become an im- 
l)ortant industry in the United States during the 
present general ion. 

In Europe an appreciable number of large motor 
vehicles — buses and trucks — are driven by gasogenes. 
These are appliances, carried on the vehicle, which 
distil woody or coaly material and produce gas which 
is consumed in the motor. 

Frori the economic standpoint these appliances may 
justify themselves in regions where cost of gasoline 
is great and cost of wood or charcoal or lignite is low. 
but in general the cost and the problems of providing 
adequate and convenient fuel supjily and of disposing 
of Miiste appear to jireclude any ]>ossibility of general 
adoption of tliese devices. 

The preceding discussion has dealt exclusively with 
motor fuels. It is seen that substitutes are obtain- 
able at a price. This is not yet true of lubricants. 
Satisfactory lubricants can probably be manufactured 
from shale oil. but this has not been demonstrated. 
Excellent lubricants for certain pur]ioscs can be manu- 
factured from cei-tiiin vegetable oils, and in partic- 
ular from castor oil, but a new technology must be de- 
veloped before the lubricating needs of the world can 
be supplied from any raw material other than petro- 
leum. Looking back over the road already traversed 
in cracking the large petroleum mol'-cule into smaller 
ones, and now in recombining smaller molecules into 
larger by the process of polymerization, it does not 
seem impossible that when necessity requires the trick 
can be done. 

The United States possesses huge reserves of coal 
and of oil shale, the two most promising substitute 
raw materials. It also has a supply of petroleum ade- 
quate to meet its needs for many years to come. Other 
nations, lacking petroleum resources and driven by 
nationalistic zeal, are intensively at w-ork on processes 



to ilevelop petroleum substitutes from coal and shale. 
If they succeeil in so reducing costs as to compete suc- 
cessfully with oil from natural reservoirs, the processes 
developed will doubtless become generally available. 
In any event, if and when the need arises to replace 
petroleum products with liquid hydrocarbons from 
coal and oil shale, the United States will have the 
benefits of this pioneer work which will, by so much, 
shorten the task of our own technologists. 

This does not mean that the technology of securing 
petroleum substitutes from coal and oil shale should 
be ignored in this country. On the contrary, our 
technologists should not only keep abreast of what is 
being done abroad but should themselves give thought 
and effort to these problems. This is actually being 
done in the laboratories of the Bureau of Alines and 
at least some of the major oil companies of this coun- 
try and is obviously a fertile field for research by the 
producers of coal. 

Looking ahead, we may anticipate no great indus- 
trial development of petroleum substitutes in this 
country during the next 10 years, but may expect a 
steady increase of experimental and semi-commercial 
work looking toward the utilization of substitute ma- 
terials when econcmiic conditions warrant. The in- 
crease in cost which the substitutes imply reinforces 
the case for conserving our supplies of petroleum by 
avoidance of preventable waste. 

Nonmelallic Materials '" 

Lack of space prevents more than a passing ref- 
erence to the technical changes at work in the great 
group of nonmelallic raw nuiterials, which rank close 
to the better-known metals in point of value. Figure 
23 suggests that the nonmef allies, as exemplified by 
sulphur, gypsum, and i)liosphate, have shown an in- 
crease in out put per worker equalling or surpassing 
the metals au<l fuels. In the case of sulphur the in- 
crease is partly due to the discovery of new deposits 
but chiefly to new methods. Largely on account of 
these advances in efficiency total employment in the 
uonmetallic industries was lower during the 19iiO's 
than in 1912, despite the post-war activity in con- 
struction. 

Among the technical advances which have con- 
tributed to increasing productivity within this group 
are the unique Frasch process for mining sulphur by 
drilling wells, injecting hot water into the deixx-^it. 
melting out the sulphur and forcing it to the surface; 
the wire saw, introduced in the slate quarries in 192G, 
and now spreading to the production of building stone ; 
the sand-blast process of carving; better equipment 



" Gavin. II. J.. Oil Sbale. A Historical. Tcclinical. and Economic 
Study, Bureau of Atincs Bull. 210, 1924. 



'" I'.y Oliver Howies, i'liief Engineer. Building Materials Section, U. S. 

Ttiir-'Mti M >Iiln's 



Technological Trends 

for (lie liandliiifj of bulk material; iiuprovLMuents in 
crushing and grinding machinery ; larger and more 
efficient cement and lime kilns; and remarkable sav- 
ings in fuel consumption. (See fig. 27.'') 

MaTiy industries of this group (juarry broken rock 
and liave profited fi'om the increase in size and flexi- 
bility of power shovels already referred to in connec- 
tion with coal mining. Related economies include the 
development of improved explosives (liquid oxygen for 
the largest scale work), and the use of churn drills to 
prepare 6-inch shot holes perhaps 100 feet deep, which 
permit blasting down a whole face at once. At the 
same time, the mining of stone by luiderground meth- 
ods has been improved and extended, where special - 
quality material not available at the surface is desired. 
In the related industry of sand and gravel a very great 
increase in outjjut per man-hour has occurred, center- 
ing around the use of labor-saving machinery. 

Like other mineral industries, the nonmetallics have 
shown a trend toward concentration of business in 
larger plants. In lime, cement, and crushed stone, for 
example, the trend toward larger units is outstanding. 
(See figs. 27 and 32.) An exception to this gen- 
eral tendency is the portable crushed stone or sand and 
gravel j^lant, which can be shifted from one location 
to another. The j)()rtables draw their raw material 
from local roadside pits, and by savings in freight they 
are competing successfully' against the larger cen- 
tralized plants tied to a fixed location. 

Further economies in production costs are expected 
by mechanical improvements along the lines already 
indicated. Attention is also being centered on raising 
the quality of the product, and on recovering byprod- 
ucts from material formerly wasted. One development 
that will bear watching is the extraction of carbon 
dioxide from the silent gases of lime and cement kilns 
and its compression into "dry ice." This is already 
practiced at one or two plants. 

Perhaps the most significant change is the introduc- 
tion of froth flotation in the treatment of nomnetallic 
materials in a finely divided state. The revolutionary 
effects of this process upon metal mining arc discussed 
elsewhere (p. 166). Recently it has been applied to the 
recovery of rock phosphate, with a saving of a large 
fraction of the crude rock which was formerly wasted 
in the tailings. In some cases flotation is said to 
df)uble the recovery. Flotation is also being used bv 



'" The dat.i in fijr. 27 are derived as follows : 

Output per plant per year and per man per year computed from the 
Census of Manufactures. Output per man-hour from II. H. Hughes. 
B. W. Baglcy. nml E, T. Shuey. Cement, U. S. Bureau of Mines Minerals 
Yearbook 1935. p. 894. Percent natural cement to total and output of 
high-early-strength cement also from Bureau of Mines annual reports. 
Pounds of coal or equivalent consumed per barrel of cement from F. G. 
Tryon and II. O. Rogers. Statistical Studies of Progress in Fuel Effi- 
ciency. Transactions. Second World Power Conference, vol. VI, p. 244, 
Berlin, 1930, continued by N. Yaworski. 



161 

a Portland cement mill to purify limestone which 
would otherwise not yield a satisfactory cement, and 
it has been ajjplied ])ractically or experiment allj^ to 
other nonmetallics. Enough has been done to suggest 
that in this field, as i)reviously in metal mining, flota- 
tion may have very great effects in improving quality, 
reducing waste, and making available low-grade 
deposits formei'ly considered of no value. 



7250 2.0 




• 099 '904 1900 i9<4 



■919 "21 '23 25 "2 7 '929 J' 33 '935 



POUNDS OP COAL OH ' 
fOU'VALENT CONSUMED 
fER &ARBEL Of CEMENT 



PORTLAND 
CEMENT ONLY 




'z^-^^^ 



23 '25 *27 1929 'i' 



FiGi'RE 27. Indicators of technical progress In nonmetallic Industries as 
illustrated by cement, 1899-1930. 

The cement industry is the largest, in terms of value, of the great non- 
metallic group, and it has shown a rate of technical advance equalling 
or ex<'ecding that in most other lines of industry. 

The increase in size of plant is indicated Uy the average output per 
plant, which rose from ]4.o,000 barrels in 1899 to about 1,000,000 
liarrels in 1929 (the apparent decrease thereafter being due to the 
great depression). 

Output per man-year increased very rapidly down to 1929. The more 
accurate record of ovitpnt jier man-hour, which begins in 1928, shows a 
further increase during the depression. 

.\t the same time the (luality of the product Itas improved, as indi- 
cated, for example, liy the virtual elimination of "natural" cement 
and its replacement Ijy Portland cement. Ucccnt years have also 
seen the introduction of greatly improved portlands, such as high 
early strength cements. 

Increasing efficiency is further indicated by the remarkable savings 
in fuel required per barrel of product. This is associated with a 
luimber of technical inqirovements, one of which is the increasing 
length of kilns. 

The Major Melals '» 

Group Relations 

Iron, cojjper, lead, and zinc are ranked by every- 
one as major metals, each having a distinct industry 
for its production, reduction, refining, and fabric-a- 



"By y. T. Read, Vinton Professor of Mining, Columbia University. 
During Professor Read's absence in China, he has entrusted to Mr. 
Tryon the re.sponsibility of cutting and rearranging his original manu- 
script to meet the limitations of space and the contributions of other 
authors. 



162 



National Resources Committee 



tioii into articles of common use. Aluminum is less 
surely a member of the group. Gold and silver 
would not ordinarily be regarded as major metals, but 
they may well be included in this discussion since their 
social significance is much greater than their tech- 
nologic importance, and also because they are to so 
material a degree byproducts of copper and lead pro- 
duction that thej- exert considerable influence upon 
those industries. 

The production of the major metals from domestic 
sources depends on the existence of suitable deposits 
and on complex interrelationships with other factors. 
Since it is clearly imjjracticable to discuss all these fac- 
tors simultaneously, it seems best to first consider the 



technology of mining proper, the delivery on the sur- 
face of material originally underground; then the me- 
chanical concentration of such material preliminary to 
smelting; and finally the chemical operation of smelt- 
ing and refining. But it must be kept in mind that 
each of these operations is dependent on the others, 
and any one of them may exert a governing influence. 

Mining of Metallic Ores 

Open-pit Mining. — The proportion of the total out- 
put produced by surface or open-pit mining has been 
increasing in recent years (fig. 28) and this may be 
regarded as a highly probable trend in the years im- 
mediately ahead. As pointed out in connection with 




MILLION 
TONS 
24^ r- 



18 



ANTHRACITE 
COAL 



1909 



1914 



1919 



1924 



1929 




PER 

CENT 

100 



75 



50 



25 



1919 



I9a4 



MILLION 
TONS 



IRON ORE 



~i — I — I — r- 



TONS MINED 
FROM OPEN PITS. 



PER MILLION 

CENT POUNDS 
100 1,000 ■— 




COPPER 



80 800 



i 60 600 



40 400 



20 200 



POUNDS MINED 
FROM OPEN PITS* 



<^> 




PER 

CENT 

100 



80 



60 



40 



20 



1909 1914 



1924 1929 



1909 1914 



F. G. T«VW, W. W. AOAMS, *ND M w. QAVIS. 
U. S. BUREAU OF MINES 



MINE MEt-HANIZATtON AND PROOUCTIVITV STUW 
W.P.A. NATIONAL RCSCARCH PIXUECT 



FlGUBK 28. Rise of open-cut or strip miniDg in coal, iron, and copper. 

An outstanding technological trend, aflecting both coal and metal mining, is the rise of open-pit, or strip, mining with power shovels. Despite the exhaustion of some of the ground 

more easily available for stripping, an increase in the size and range of power shovels and other improvements is causing an expansion in relation to underground mining. 



Technological Trends 



163 



coal niiiiiiiir the increasing depths to which si rip 
mining has been carried have not resuhed from revo- 
lutionary inventions, but rather from the evolution 
of the power shovel and associated machinery, and the 
progressive finding of better solutions for such me- 
chanical problems as the starting and stopping of the 
swing of a heavy dipper, to cite one example. 

On the other hand, the present trend toward open- 
pit mining is clearly one that, except perhajis in the 
case of iron ore, must eventuallj^ slacken and reverse, 
because with the progressive exhaustion of bodies that 
lie at or near the surface, underground mining be- 
comes a necessity. Iron ore is cxcef)ted because the 
resources that lie near the surface are very large and 
it may be cheaper to bring surface-mined ore from a 
great distance than to seek to obtain it locally at 
greater depths. But no considerable amounts of lead 
or zinc arc olilained by surface mining at pi'esent, and 
nearly all the copi)er deposits of present commercial 
grade to which surface mining seems applicable are 
already being attacked in that way. 

Depth in Relation to Grade of Ore. — Even the deep- 
est of underground mining must be regarded as shal- 
low mining, when one reflects that the n^ile and a half 
below the surface to which metal-mining operations 
have penetrated represents less than one-half of 1 
percent of the total distance to the center of the earth. 
The fear of a shortage of available ore deposits thus 
may ai)pear chimerical, but it has some substantial 
basis. The ore deposits now being mined at 8,000 feet 
have persisted to that depth from their original dis- 
covery on the surface. Since the majority of deposits 
traced downward from the surface are found to ter- 
minate at lesser depths, mining at great depths will 
tyi^ically involve the finding of deposits which do not 
extend to the surface. This in itself will be an ex- 
pensive task. Furthernioi-e, working at increasing 
depths involves a progi-essive increase in operating 
costs, and tlie best that can well be hoped from im- 
proved technology is that it will slacken the rate of 
increase. 

It will be suggested that the more obvious solution 
of these difficulties is that deposits worked at great 
depths must be of higher grade or unit value. Cop- 
per ore has recently (1925-29) been mined under- 
ground at a depth of less than 1,000 feet at a produc- 
tion cost of 40 cents per ton,^^ or a little moi"e than 
3 cents per pound of copper obtained from it. A 10 
percent copper ore could, on the same basis, bear a pro- 
duction cost of $6 per ton, and such an ore could be 
worked at very great depths. Ores of so high a grade, 
however, are hard to find. The average content of 
copper ore nained in the United States 1924-33 was 



1.49 percent and the highest grade ore produced in any 
considerable quantity in 1933 M-as about GOO.OOO tons 
in Arizona, averaging 7% percent copper content, and 
corresponding to less than one-fifth of the total domes- 
tic output for that year. The easy inference that the 
way to meet increased mining costs is to find higher- 
grade ore bodies seems further blocked by the geologi- 
cal fact that most ore bodies tend to decrease rather 
than increase in grade with depth. In the case of iron 
ore, moreover, the grade of ore already mined is nearly 
as good as can theoretically be hoped for, since it ap- 
proximates pure iron oxide. Finally, one must reckon 
with the fact that rich ore does not conunonly occur 
in large bodies. The large-scale copper-mining enter- 
prises that achieve low costs are with few exceptions 
working on low-grade deposits. 

There seems, therefore, little escape from the prospect 
that metal mining in the future must adjust itself to 
greater depths or lower grade ores, or even to both. 
In the case of iron ore, such readjustments in the near 
future are not likely to be more tlian preliminary 
steps. The Lake Superior district, which now fur- 
nishes four-fifths of our iron, has reserves in ore of 
present commercial grade sufficient to supply the an- 
ticipated demand upon the district for about 40 years. 
Alabama, the next largest district, has reserves to meet 
the anticipated Southern demand for about 300 years. 
Copper reserves in ore of present commercial grade 
are sufficient for 40 years at the 10-year average of 
demand. Those of lead and zinc, on the other hand, 
are only half as great, or say a 20 years' supply in 
ores of pi-esent standards.-" It is in the case of lead 
and zinc, therefore, that we should expect to perceive 
the earliest developments of general trends in mining 
techinques to meet the changing conditions forecast 
by depletion. 

Mechanization and Mining Methods V nderground. — 
What these trends are likely to be can only be inferred 
from past experience. An outstanding feature of that 
experience has been the rise in wage rates and the 
increase in output per worker, shown in figure 23, 
made possible by the introduction of labor-saving de- 
vices. The relation between the wage rate and mech- 
anization is reciprocal. The general increase in wage 
levels over the last generation when prices of the 
metals were declining (fig. 22) has stimulated mech- 
anization, and mechanization in turn has aided the 
payment of higher wages. As the long-time trend of 
wage scales appears to be upward, metal mining tech- 
nology is likely to continue to be called on to adjust 
itself to advancing levels of wage. 



"Trans. Am. Inst. Min. and ^^Pt. Kng., 1930, p. 41. 



-" Leith, Kenneth and LiddeU, Donald M. The Mineral Reserves of 
the United States and Its Capacity for Production, National Resources 
Committee, Mar. 1936, pp. 98-100, 55, 124, 231. 



164 



National Resources Committee 



Increasing production per man-hour of labor through 
supplementing human efforts l)y mechanical power and 
devices for its more eflective api)lication involves com- 
plex problems that have already been mentioned in 
the consideration of coal mining and need not be re- 
peated here, excejit to allude to significant differences. 
In coal mining all the deposit is removed, unless part 
of it is left to support the surface, but in copper, lead, 
and zinc mining the deposits are more irregular ; and 
in most cases instead of mining the whole deposit only 
those parts rich enough to bear the cost of removal are 
taken out. This presents little difficulty where mining 
is done largely by hand labor, but segregating that 
which is not desired from that which is sought raises 
difficulties in almost every technique which seeks to 
increase output per man-hour through mechanization. 

The actual procedure of producing mineral may be 
divided into breaking the solid mass into fragments 
suitable for handling, loading the broken material 
into cars for transport, transporting it horizontally 
and hoisting it vertically. Where conditions permit, 
the two latter operations may be combined into a single 
movement on an incline. The trends in the latter two 
are so evident as to need little comment. In common 
with all transportation they involve larger cars, longer 
trains, and higher speeds of movement; likewise they 
seem to have already nearly attained the practicable 
and economic limits of development. 

Increase of output per man-hour of labor in loading 
]n'esents alternatives. Either mechanical loading may 
be substituted for hand shoveling or mining operations 
may be so planned as to draw the broken material out 
of chambers and passages above directly into the cars. 
The first has already been discussed under coal mining 
and has made substantial progress in some branches 
of metal mining; the second is not practicable in de- 
posits of no great thickness and of slight dip, such as 
coal seams. But in many deposits of metallic ore it is 
feasible to drive haulageways beneath the deposit and 
draw the ore down into them. In some cases the phys- 
ical nature of the deposit is such that it is practicable 
to "block-cave" ; that is, undercut the deposit and allow 
it to fall down from above as it is removed beneath. 
This is the procedure in the method cited on page 58 
which hag resulted in the lowest mining costs yet at- 
tained nndcrground.-^ 

One unfamiliar with mining will naturally ask why 
such a process should not at once become standard pro- 
cedure, but every miner realizes that the conditions 
which permit its application are unfortunately rather 
exceptional. Only a lunited proportion of our total 

=' rrodiictlon at the mine cited was 27 tons per man-dny. Tlio high- 
est attained in coal mining is 1.'3 tons per man per 7-liour day. and the 
average for coal production in the United States is 5 tons per man per 
day. 



miiicral is now, or is ever likely to be, mined in this 
way, because of the limitation. (On the other hand, 
when mineral occurs in deposits that are so small and 
irregular that the minimum cost of mining is, say $15 
per ton, they will still be mined if the mineral itself is 
worth more than $15 per ton. Large-scale mecliunized 
mining will never drive out high-cost, small-scale hand 
mining so long as there are high-grade deposits that 
can only be mined by these latter methods.) It may 
])rove true that increase in production per man-hour 
of labor has ali-eady reached its highest expression, and 
that the metal supplies of the future will be obtained 
at a greater expenditure of human effort. 

Mechanical effort will also be increased, the increased 
mechanical work required in hoisting ore from greater 
depths being obvious. This is not the critical factor, 
liowever, for it is common i)racfice in mining to drop 
broken ore several hundred feet before beginning to 
hoist it, merely to facilitate its handling underground. 
Ore can be successfully, and not too expensively, 
hoisted from depths two or three times as great as the 
])resent average for the United States, the problem is 
merely to fiiiil the best \\a.y of doing it at an individual 
property. A\'ith rare exception, the handling of water 
will not increase costs in deep mining, since deep 
mines, for reasons that are well understood by geolo- 
gists, tend to be dry. 

In the breaking of ore to permit its removal — as dis- 
tinct from the task of loading — no revolutionary de- 
velopments need be expected, for tlie teclinique now 
used ranges from drilling and blasting all the ore to 
undercutting it and allowing it to fall by itself with- 
out blasting. The range of cost is about the same for 
either, this odd result deriving from the fact that when 
ore "caves" many of the blocks are too large for han- 
dling and the cost of blasting or otherwise breaking 
them is such that it is just as cheap to blast all the ore, 
if it can be done on a sufficiently large scale. The cost 
of drilling holes, loading them with explosive and fir- 
ing the blast has already been reduced to where rela- 
tively little margin exists for further improvement. 

Special Problems of Deep Mining. — On the other 
hand, there are difficulties and jiroblems peculiar to 
increased depth. They center around the high temper- 
atures encountered, and the increasing pressures, which 
make the maintenance of any opening progressively- 
more difficult. 

It is now generally understood that a working man 
must be cooled, just as any internal-combustion engine 
must be cooled if it is to function efficiently. If the 
air surrounding a man is at his normal body tempera- 
ture this cooling action ceases unless the air is dry 
enough so he can be cooled by the evaporation of per- 
spiration. When air passes down into a mine it tends 
to take up moisture from contact with wet walls, and 



Technological Trends 



165 



also to warm up, from compression, one degree for 
every 200 feet of descent. In addition, the temperature 
of the rock increases as one goes deeper into the 
ground; the rate varies at different places, but may 
amount to as much as 40° in 5,000 feet. The result 
of all tliese factors is that, in most regions at a depth 
of 8,000 feet or more, the temperature and humidity 
in the working places are likely to be so high that 
no effective work is possible. The "cooling power" of 
the air must be increased, for no amount of air move- 
ment will do any good if it has no cooling power. 
Much study has been given to this prol)lem in recent 
years. In the metal mines, for example, adoption of 
better ventilation has greatly improved conditions, and 
for the depths at which we are at present working in 
the United States fairly satisfactory solutions have 
been attained. The next step is cooling the air by 
artificial refrigeration. Equipment of this character 
has been installed in two of the world's deepest mines, 
the St. John del Rey of Brazil (8,100 feet deep) and 
the Robinson Deep of South Africa (8,500 feet). Suc- 
cess of these installations may lower the effective depth 
at which mining can be carried on. How much deeper 
they, or more effective methods, may permit men to 
go, no one can predict. The problem is by no means 
easy. 

Since it is difficult to maintain conditions at which 
men can work efficiently at great depths, the logical 
inference is to try to develop methods that will utilize 
mechanical power to the maximum and require a mini- 
mum of human effort. But this leads to a conflict, 
because the power devices commonly used are usually 
electrically operated and electrical machinery typi- 
cally develops heat, thus tending to make an already 
bad situation worse. In recent years the trend has 
been away from the use of compressed air machinery 
undergi-ound, except for drilling in which it is stand- 
ard piactice, but it may prove desirable to reverse 
this trend and use compressed air much more exten- 
sively than has been the practice. Discussion of the 
technological problems involved would require too 
much space, and not be of general interest while the 
developments are still in such an embryonic stage that 
it is difficult to predict what direction they may take. 
Nor will it make much difference to the general public 
liow deep mining is done, so long as it can be done 
successfully. 

The pressure that exists in the earth at great depth 
constitutes another major problem in deep mining. 
The practical problems of protecting the miners from 
the fall of overlying material that is locally too weak 
to hold up are discussed in connection with safety 
and here we need only refer to the special problem 
that arises in all kinds of mines when the depth be- 



comes very great, with a corresponding increase in 
the stresses existing in the rocks. Not only do frag- 
ments fall from the i-oof but the bottom heaves up 
and the sides burst out, much as a nutshell flies about 
when it is cracked in a nutcracker. Meeting this con- 
dition is hampered by a lack of knowledge of all the 
factors involved, since the early attempts at meeting 
it were made by "practical"' men. Beyond venturing 
that the solution will be attained through the correct 
application of mechanical and structural principles, 
and a feeling of some confidence that a solution can 
eventually be found that will permit mining at sub- 
stantially greater depths, it is not possible to make 
definite statements regarding it at this time. For- 
tunately but few mines except those of gold have yet 
attained depths where this problem becomes very im- 
portant. Tlie gold mines of South Africa will prob- 
ably serve as an experimental laboratory in mining 
at depth with the advantage that the Union Govern- 
ment, through control of the South African pound, 
can fix the price of gold in terms of local goods and 
services at such level as may be necessary to permit 
its major industry to continue in the face of increasing 
difficulties. 

The natural thought that the great pressures exist- 
ing in depths can be utilized to cause the rock to break 
itself, and the broken rock drawn off in cars, leaving 
only lateral and vertical transportation as the remain- 
ing operations to be handled with as little manpower 
as possible, overlooks the requirement of such a method 
of attack for the opening and maintenance for years 
of passageways beneath the ore-body. And such an 
operation largely tends to substitute men who control 
the operations for miners who actually dig and shovel 
the ore. Even in a mine where all the ore is "caved" 
the output per man per day does not rise much' about 
25 tons. "Completely mechanized" mining still re- 
quires much human supervision and control. 

A recent development by which 5-foot shafts have 
been bored instead of sunk in the usual manner indi- 
cates that shafts can in the future be sunk more 
cheaply, possibly reducing the cost, at great depths, 
to one-third of what is now regarded as normal. This 
will, of course, greatly pi-omote exploitation at depth, 
since a deep shaft might easily cost $500,000. 

Outlook for Mining Costs. — The general conclusion 
that appears from our analysis of the trends of metal 
mining is that there is no reason to imagine that any 
ore will be mined in the future much more cheaply 
than some of it is now. Savings will certainly con- 
tinue from the more general adoption of methods and 
machinery already developed in the most successful 
mines, and new technical advances will doubtless 
occur. But it seems equally clear that the long run 



166 

trend will be tovranl increasing natural handicaps and 
toward higlicr wage rates. A dilemma often faced 
will be whether to produce ore from a greater depth 
or bring it from greater distance. 

Ore Dressing or Concentration 

Another solution of the growing difficulties of min- 
ing is the use of techniques which produce ore of lower 
grade at a decreased cost, as compared with continuing 
to produce ore of standard grade at increased cost. 
The needed quantities of copper, lead, and zinc have 
long been obtained by producing rather low-grade 
ores, as the figures cited for cot)pcr indicate. What is 
taken out of the ground and brought to the surface 
is, except in the case of petroleum, coal, and iron, not 
relatively pure mineral but mineral of the kinds de- 
sired mixed with waste. A 1-pound lump of ore is 
typically an intimate mixture of particles of the de- 
sired mineral with others that arc of no use; the 
problem is to separate the particles desired from the 
others. Only in the case of gold "placers" are the 
particles already separate; typically they are adher- 
ent, and must be broken apart. This is more difficult 
than removing a nut from its shell, since breaking a 
lump which is half mineral and half waste will not 
necessarily produce small particles that are either min- 
eral or waste ; they may still be half mineral and half 
waste. If the particles of mineral are only Woo i'^^^^i 
in diameter, a i/io-inch lump will still be a mixture; 
whenever the desired mineral exists in small particles, 
it cannot be separated without fine crushing. 

Until recent yeare this condition resulted in a stale- 
mate, for the mechanical processes used to separate a 
mineral from waste were effective only on particles of 
appreciable size. If the individual particles were small 
they could not be separated; unless they were small 
they were still a mixture of mineral and waste. 

But since lUOO, a new technique called froth flota- 
tion has been developed. In this process, a pulp of 
finely ground ore and water is mixed with relatively 
minute quantities of one or more chemical agents. 
The mixture is then made to froth either by mechan- 
ical agitation or by blowing into it a stream of air. 
The particles of mineral stick to the air bubbles and 
are floated to the top, to be scraped off or otherwise 
collected, while the waste particles remain below as 
tailing. The physics and chemistry of floation are 
still not fully understood, but in the separation of 
small particles the process is a revolutionary advance. 
In fact, the particles cannot be too snudl to be saved 
in this way. Flotation has the additional advantage 
that it permits an easy and effective (usually) sepa- 
ration of minerals that could not previously be sep- 
arated in any size, because they have nearly the same 
specific gravity. This results in changes in concen- 



National Resources Committee 

trating and smelting procedure iliat may best be illus- 
trated by a specific example. 

The ore in a given mine consists of an intimate mix- 
ture of copper, lead, zinc, and iron minerals, ^jIus gold 
and silver. By the older technique perhaps only two- 
thirds of the total amounts of these minerals present 
could be saved in the concentrate. Furthermore the 
zinc and iron minerals could not be separated from the 
lead, consequently they wei'e allowed to go with it to 
the final stage of smelting in which they were not 
only lost, but perhaps somewhat increased the cost of 
the lead-smelting operation. Froth flotation now per- 
mits the production of a clean copper mineral product, 
a clean lead mineral product, a zinc product, and iron 
mineral that perhaps may be sold for acid making. 
Tlie total saving may thus perhaps be puslied up to 
over 90 percent of the valuable minerals present in 
the ore, and, in addition, the higher metal content of 
the product, plus its freedom from undesirable con- 
stituents, greatly reduces the cost of the smelting. 
The business aspects of this ai"e quite clear. If the 
cost of mining the ore in this mine is $2.50 per ton and 
only one-third of the total ore is of high enough grade 
so that the margin left after paying concentration, 
transportation, and smelting charges exceeds $2.50, 
oiilj- that portion of the total ore can be mined. But 
suppose these charges can be reduced 50 cents per 
ton, they will permit ore which is worth 50 cents less 
per ton to be mined, and possibly, through simplifj-- 
ing the mining operations, lower their cost. All the 
ore can perliaps then be mined, possibly at a greater 
jjrofit per ton than would accrue from mining the 
higher-grade ore. Many mines that could not be op- 
erated at all before the advent of froth flotation have 
been turned by it into jjrofitable producers. 

The invention of flotation has proved to be among 
the most important developments in the history of 
metal-mining technology. It is one of the main fac- 
tors that has made possible the working of low-grade 
ores. Thirty-five years ago, a S-jiercent copper ore 
had no value. Today, some of the most profitable 
mines work ores of 1 percent. The change has added 
many million tons to the national ore reserves and 
directed the industry of copper mining to new centers 
of activity. In 1930, over 44 percent of the copper 
output came from the so-called porphyry mines, work- 
ing deposits that were known in 1900 but considered 
then as valueless. Meanwhile, the price of copper had 
declined from 17 cents to 13 cents a pound. Similar 
(changes have lowered the economic limits of working 
in the ores of lead and zinc, gold and silver, and some 
of the lesser metals."- In large part, the change is 



— Trjon. F. G. The Changing Distribution of Resources, in Migra- 
tion and Economic Opportunity, University of Pennsylvania Press, 
Philadelphia, 1936. 



Technological Trends 



167 



due to the introduction of the mass methods of mining 
with power shovels in open pits or witli caving sys- 
tems underground, already discussed, but in part also 
it is due to the advances in concentration methods of 
which flotation is the chief. The increasing recovery 
of the metal present in the ore and the increasing pur- 
ity of the concentrates obtained are illustrated in 
figure 29.-^ 

The question immediately arises as to what further 
developments along this line may be hoped for. Can 
districts in which the reserves of minable ore, under 
present conditions, are fairly well known expect to 
have their life greatly prolonged by further reduc- 
tions in treatment costs that will permit the mining of 
lower-grade ores? No sweeping statement can be. 
made as to this, because the ore in an individual de- 
posit may be nearly all of the same grade, with a 
sharp distinction between ore and that which is not 
ore, while in other cases it may shade gradually out 
into barren i'ock. In the latter case, large reserves of 
low-grade ore may exist and further reductions in 
concentration and smelting costs may either extend 
its i)roduction life or perhaps jicrmit an increase in 
current operations from, say, 1.000 tons daily to 2,000 
tons daily. What are the possibilities for such reduc- 
tions where low-grade reserves exist? 

In the case of froth flotation they seem to be limited 
to those general improvements common to all indus- 
trial processes. The two largest factors in the cost of 
flotation concentration are crushing and reagents. 
Both the chemistry and physics of the flotation process 
are as yet incompletely understood and some reduc- 
tion in the cost of reagents may be possible, though 
the recent trend has been rather toward the use of 
more expensive reagents wherever they would produce 
a corresponding increase in saving or improvement of 
the product. Grinding, the crushing operation neces- 
sary to produce the fine particles essential for froth 
flotation, offers less promise, since it is difficult to keep 
grinding surfaces fi-om coming into contact and thus 
destroying each other, while some ores are so hard that 
the abrading action tends to become mutual. In anj- 
case the power input required to reduce a 14-inch par- 
ticle to a corresponding number of 1/100-inch particles 
is surprisingly large, with no hint yet as to how it 
could be reduced. Except for grinding the cost of 
froth flotation is already so low that the margin for 
I'eduction is small. The present trend of research is 
toward making separations not now possible or further 
perfecting of those being made. Where a saving of 90 
percent is already being made, a further increase by 



PCRCSNT 
100 



." " 1"" 

CALUMET AND 
. HECLA MlLLv 

L_i_ 







^^>— 


. UTAH ^ 

COPPER 
• MILL 


























• 








PERCENTAGE OF RECOVERY 

OF METAL PRESENT IN THE ORE 
IN COPPER CONCENTRATION 


. . . 1 . . . i ^-- 



EFFECTIVENESS 
OF SEPARATION 

IN ZINC CONCENTRATES 



PERCENT OF ZINC IN CONCENTRATE 1 



PER CENT OF LEAD IN CONCENTRATE ' 



^ The data in fig. 29 are derived as follows : Percentage of recovery 
at Calumet and Hecla mill and Utah Copper mill from T. G. Chapman. 
Concentration ot Copper Ores in North America. U. S. Bureau of Mines. 
Bull. 392, p. 11. Percent of zinc and lead in zinc concentrates from 
W. R. Ingalls, Yearbook, American Bureau of Metal Statistics. 



FiGUUE 2U. Technologic advances in ore dressing or concentration. 

Introduction of troth flotation after 1914, along with other improve- 
ments, increased the recovery of the copper present in the ore from 
65 or 75 percent to 90 or 9.'3 percent, despite a general decline in the 
grade of ore treated. (.\t the Calumet and llccla mill flotation was 
applied only to the fine material known as slimos, and part of the 
improvement shown is due to leaching of sands and other advances.) 

At the same time, a somewhat richer concentrate was produced which 
facilitated the subsequent task of smelting. 

The improvement known as selective flotation, introduced about 1921, 
permitted increased eflfectivoness in separation of different metals 
from complex ores. This en.abled recovery of substantial amounts of 
metals formerly lost through inability to separate them. It is illus- 
trated by the trend in content of zinc concentrates. 

These technical changes and related improvements in grinding are 
among the most important factors making possible the working ot 
low-grade ones. 

(Data on copper concentration from T. G. Chapman. U. S. Bureau of 
Mines Bull. 392 ; those on zinc concentrates from W. K. Ingalls, Amer- 
ican Bureau of Metal Statistics.) 

.5 percent may be extremely important, since it may 
mean the difference between a satisfactory profit and 
none at all, but except where it means making avail- 
able ore supplies that wei-e submarginal, it makes no 
great additions to existing recoveries. 

Smelting and Refining 

Concentration processes make no change in the min- 
eral mined ; they merely separate mixtures of minerals 
into nearly pure products. A final smelting process is 
necessary to convert the mineral into metal. In the 
actual business of producing the metals, smelting is 
often integrated with mining, so that when one speaks 



168 



National Resources Committee 



of the lead industry or tlie copper industry he neces- 
sarily includes the operation of smeltiiiix and the final 
stage of refining. 

At this point mineral technology grades off into that 
special form of chemistry known us process metal- 
lurgy, for smelting and refining are commonly chem- 
ical reactions conducted on a gigantic scale. Process 
metalhirg}', in turn, is closely related to pliysical 
metallurgy, which tleals with the improvement of iho 
crude ingot metal by subsequent heat treatment or by 
mixture with otlier metals to form alloys. The trends 
of both physical and process metallurgy are the sub- 
ject of another chapter, wliich spares us the task of 
tracing them here. 

All tliat need be done now is to point out that tlie 
progress of smelting has contributed greatly to mak- 
ing the metals cheaper and more abundant. Among 
the lilies of advance developed in the later chapter are 
increasing puritj- of product, recovery of an increasing 
percentage of the metal in the ore, extraordinary sav- 
ings in fuel per pound of metal produced, savings in 
labor through mechanization, and recovery of byprod- 
ucts formerly wasted. Tlie savings effected in these 
ways have gone far to offset the increasing handicaps 
of mineral depletion and to make possible the profit- 
able treatment of low-grade ores. 

One line of development requii'es special mention. 
Partly through improvement of the familiar processes 
of fire metallurgy and partly through the develop- 
ment of electrolytic processes, there is a growing 
ability to treat complex ores containing several metals 
and to successfully separate them. This development 
makes available large tonnages of ores that formerly 
were considered unprofitable. To the generalizations 
that the metal supplies of the future will tend to come 
from greater depths and from lower-grade ores, we 
can therefore add a third one that they will also tend 
to come from moi'e complex mixtures. 

Trend in Number and Size of Mines 

The long-time trend in the metals, as in the case of 
coal, is toward fewer and larger enterprises. Unem- 
ployment and devaluation of the dollar have brought 
on a picturesque revival of small-scale gold mining but 
this seems an exception. Otherwise, the trend toward 
larger units is apparent in all three of the major 
departments — mining, concentrating, and smelting,-* 
ami most of the technical changes we have outlined 
work to favor large-scale operation. 

There is, however, one factor to be mentioned that 
encourages the smaller mine. It results from the 
mine's relations to the concentrator and smelter. For 



=*Tryon, F. G., Concciitintion and Sc.itter in the Mineral Industries, 
Study of Population Redistribution Bull. No. 4. University ot Penn- 
sylvania Press, Pliilndelphia (In preparation). 



the efficient and economical opiTation of a reduction 
plant, it should be fed with raw material of unvarying 
quality, since it is required to make a product of uni- 
form, or nearly uniform, quality. ]5ut no two shovel- 
fuls of ore as removed from a mine are exactly alike. 
Iron ores are analyzed as mined and then handled in 
such a way during transport to the blast furnaces that 
they become mixed to a practicable degree of uni- 
formity. Copper, lead, and zinc ores are much more 
variable as mined and when rich enough to be sent 
directly to a smelter, give rise to much difficulty that is 
normally met by spreading them in layers and by mix- 
ing the layers as they later are picked up for delivery 
to the furnaces. 

But where the ore goes first to a concentrating plant 
the variations in the hour-to-hour output of the mine 
may create much difficulty in adjusting the concentrat- 
ing process so as to yield a high recovery and a uni- 
form product. At a large mine, underground control 
may be exercised to produce more uniformity in the 
hourly average of material hoisted, but in a small mine 
this is less practicable. With a small mine, therefore, 
it may be better to ship the ore to a central concentrat- 
ing jilant which, by mixing the ores as received, may 
assure itself of more uniform raw material. Within 
the limits imposed by transportation costs we may 
expect a trend toward centralization of concentration, 
paralleling that which has long existed in the cen- 
tralization of smeltiiig. This in turn may react to 
permit the operation of small mines which not only 
could not bear the investment cost of a separate con- 
centration plant, but could not operate it successfully. 

Insofar as central concentrating mills do promote 
the activity of small mines, the result may be con- 
sidered wholesome. The small mine serves a useful 
purpose in national metal production in developing 
little-known prospects to a stage where larger-scale 
operation is feasible. The normal course of develop- 
ment is the finding of a small amount of mineral which 
seems to justify doing a little work to ascei-tain 
wliether there is more. If the results of this are favor- 
able, further expenditure is warranted until eventually 
there is enough evidence to justify installing large- 
scale equipment. 

This tendency can hardly be expected to offset in 
full the underlying drift toward large-scale operation 
which is disclosed, for example, in figure 32. The 
long-run tendency is clearly toward a decreasing num- 
ber of lai'ger enterprises. 

Outlook for Metal Mining 

Our review of the technologic trends in jiroduclion 
of the major metals has disclosed some tendencies al- 
ready observed in the analysis of coal mining — a 
tendency toward fewer and larger enterprises and a 



Technological Trends 



169 



tendency to subslilute mechanical power for liimian 
labor. The latter is stimulated by the long-run up- 
ward trend of wage rates and results in a gradual 
change in the kind of skills required. The possibility 
of actual job displacement depends also upon the un- 
certain factor of demand, and the outlook for reeovei'y 
of demand is perhaps more favorahle in tlie case of 
the metal group than it is in coal. 

In some degree, the technologic developments in 
progress will lead to a reduction in oi)erating costs and 
so in prices, but in the main they will bo attempts to 
combat i-ising costs due not only to the factor men- 
tioned, but also to the necessity of utilizing lower- 
grade, more complex, and deeper-lying ores. Insofar 
as these attempts are successful they will increase the 
available reserves. Exhaustion in some regions and 
expansion in others are to be expected, involving 
stranded communities and currents of population sliift. 
No sweeping changes in tlie general pattern of metal- 
mining enterprise are anticipated, but rather gradual 
growtli and readjustment along the lines indicated. 

The Lesser Mineral Industries -^ 
strategic Minerals 

The term "strategic minerals" came into use dur- 
ing the World War to designate a variety of mineral 
substances of which our requirements, previous to the 
war, had been wholly or largely supplied by imports 
from abroad. Under war conditions gi'eatly increased 
amounts of some of tliese materials wei'e required, 
imports were sometimes curtailed, and the mainte- 
nance of the supply became a major problem of mili- 
tary strategy. With the rise of economic nationalism 
since iy29 the current interest has shifted from mili- 
tary to political and commei'cial conflict, but the gen- 
eral conditions remain essentially unchanged and as- 
surance of supplies in an emergency is not the least 
problem in national defense. 

There is no definite list of strategic minerals. Each 
country has a different set, although nearly everyone 
would agree as to which the principal ones are for the 
United States. At present the American list includes 
manganese, essential for making open-hearth steel; 
tin, for food containers and bearings; mercury for det- 
onators; tungsten for high-speed tool steels and elec- 
tric light filaments; chrome ore for tanning, chemical 
manufacture, refractories, and metallurgy; graphite 
for crucibles ; mica for insulators; platinum for chemi- 
cal industry; asbestos for heat-resisting uses; nickel 
for alloy steels and plating — to mention only a few of 
the more critical uses of these materials. 

The strategic minerals fall into two general cate- 
gories : Minerals which have to possess definite physi- 



■ By T. T. Read 



cal or chemical ([ualities as ininecl in order to be ac- 
ce])table, and ores from whicli it is connnercially prac- 
ticable to recover desired metals. A good example of 
the first category is graphite. The substance itself 
occurs rather abundantly in the United States, but in 
such form that it is only practicable to produce here the 
quality known in the trade as "amorphous" graphite; 
for our supply of "chi])" and "flake" graphite we were 
before the war almost wlioUy dependent on Ceylon. 
There is no possible way to convert amorphous into 
flake graphite, and where the latter is necessary it 
nuist be obtained from the natural deposits. Mica 
and asbestos are tw'o other minei-als used in their 
natural form that must be produced in the quality 
desired. For some uses the domestic quality will suf- 
fice; for others the commercial demand is for qualities 
which as yet can only be obtained from foreign de- 
l)osits. This list could be greatly extended, but the 
examples cited must suffice to indicate the problem. 

In the second gi'ou]) the emphasis is on metallic 
content or freedom from impurities, the buyers liaving 
set standards of quality, with penalties for failure to 
meet them that often make it impossible to sell low- 
grade material. On chromium ores, for example, the 
standard is 50 percent chromic oxide on ores used for 
making ferro-chromium, with a penalty for lower 
content. For making refractories 40 peixent chromic 
oxide is acceptable, below 38 percent may be rejected. 
Similarly, manganese ore must contain over 45 per- 
cent manganese and should be low in silica and iron. 
The reason why such materials are imjiorted is either 
because the grade desired caniiot be produced here at 
all or else only at a cost too high to meet tlae delivered 
price on imported nuiterial. 

Examples of materials which a|)parently cannot be 
produced in this country are tin, nickel, and platinvun. 
Much attention has been given to the various places 
in the United States where these are known to occur, 
and the concensus is that we will probably never be 
able to supply our needs of these metals from domestic 
sources, unless indeed geophysical prospecting dis- 
closes deposits now wholly unsusjjected. Complete cer- 
tainty is impossible, as is illustrated by potash. Much 
study was given to that over a long period, with all the 
signs pointing to inability to meet our needs, only to 
have the situation completely changed by the unex- 
pected disco\'ery of large high-grade deposits in New 
Mexico, which now bid fair to make us eventually in- 
dependent of imports. Emery, on the other hand, 
which used to be imported chiefly from Asia Minor, has 
now been largely displaced by manufactured artificial 
abrasives, instead of by a domestically mined product. 
Natural sodium nitrate, long an essential import from 
Chile, has been removed from the list of strategic 
minerals by bringing to commercial success processes 



170 



National Resources Committee 



for tlie fixation of atiiiosplicric nitrofreii aiul by extoiid- 
ing liie recovery of ainiuonia in tlie coking of coal. 

The simplest way to meet our need for strategic min- 
erals would be to find deposits capable of producing 
them. Perhaps we shall repeat, in some instances, the 
experience with potash, but it is likely in most cases 
that we shall be no more successful in the future tlian 
in the jiast in approaching the problem along that line. 






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FiGUKE 30. r'atal accident rates in American mines and <iuarrics, 

1890-1935. 
Hazards in tlie mines have been increased by introduction of macliinery 

and by increasing depth, and in some cases by change In mining 

|>raeticc. 
Prevention of tlic excessively high accident rate in the United States, 

especially in the coal mines, is as much a problem of education and 

public administration as of technolosy. 
Encouraging progress has been made in lowering the death rate in 

quarries and metal mines in coal mines, particularly with reference 

to expl<isi()ns. 
The technical knowledge now^ available is sufficient, if fully applied, to 

effect a great reduction in the accident rate, as the exi)cricncc of 

Great Britain and of the best managed American mines has shown. 



In some cases there is a fair probability that processes 
can be developed for converting the kind of material 
we can produce into the grade that industry demands, 
in others there seems little possibility of such a result. 
Changing the technique of the consuming industry so 
as to use the materials we have has been the most fruit, 
ful of results so far. Almost never is the problem one 
of mining technique, and but seldom of concentration. 

No two of the minerals listed are in precisely the 
same situation, and since limitations of space forbid 
discussing them individually, it must suffice to say that 
no major developments, from the mining standpoint at 
least, seem to be in easj^ reach. 

The social significance of the minerals of the strate- 
gic class lies in their importance for national defense 
or for industrial sufficiency rather than in the volume 
of employment which mining them might afford. In 
the case of manganese ore — perhaps the largest item 
on the list for which there is hope of material produc- 
tion at home — we imported about 700.000 tons in 1929. 
At 129 tons per man per year, the average for the 
.small number of manganese mines in actual operation, 
the production of this quantity from domestic ores 
would have furnished employment to 5,400 men. 

New Raw Materials 

New luiiieral substances are that group, some of 
which have long been known in the museums and 
others have but recentl}' been discovered, that are 
either not tised at present, or only in small amounts. 
Developments that would bring them into general use 
would in effect present manufacturing industry with 
new raw materials. Some of them are potentially 
available in large amounts, such as titanium, which is 
many times more abundant than copper in the earth's 
crust but until recently was almost unused. This fact 
might be taken to indicate that there is no mining 
problem comiected with titanium, onlj- one of de- 
veloping commercial uses. But the principal plant 
udlizing titanium imports its raw material from 
Europe because the material produced abroad is more 
amenable to the mantifacturing process used. Min- 
erals containing flie mettil magnesium are another ex- 
ample. The small production now obtained is derived 
from the magnesium chloride present in certain Michi- 
gan salt brines, but there are also l)illions of tons of 
magnesium carbonate in the Pacific Northwest which 
could bo mined cheaply, and seemingly unlimited 
supplies in sea water. The prospects for cheapening 
the cost of production of this promising light metal 
are discussed in Part Three, Ch. VIII. 

On the other hand, some of these mineral substances 
are either rare, in the sense that the total amount 
known to exist in the earth's crust is extremely small, 
or else they are so disseminated through large amounts 



Technological Trends 



171 



of other material, like the bromine in sea water, that 
while the total amounts available are huiie, tlie concen- 
trated material can only be obtained by luuidling large 
tonnages. The small amount of radium produced 
yearly in the world corresponds to (he mining of a 
fairly large amount of the natural mineral which con- 
tains it, but even so the social implications of the 
production of such raw materials lie less in the work 
of mining itself than in the opportunity for exercise 
of high technical skill in subsequent operations or in 
the extremely important human purposes which the 
linal product serves. It is elsewhere (Part 'I'liree, Chs. 
\' antl VII) estimated tlial tlie modern electric light 
saves a million dollars daily in lighting costs; the 
tungsten recpiired to produce the lamps made in a year 
would probably not represent a value, at the mine, of 
more than $2(30.000. 

Fortunately a number of these substances do not 
need to be mined separately, our present supijly being 
a byproduct of the final purification of some major 
metal, as is the case with cadmium, bismuth, selenium, 
tellurium, and a number of others. The production, 
cost thus becomes largely a matter of bookkeeping, and 
the selling price usually represents "what the traffic 
will bear." Bismuth, for example, ordinarily sells for 
$1 to $1.25 ])er pound; no one but the producers can 
tell what relation that price bears to the actual, cost 
of production. How much of it is used in the United 
States is not known, as the producers do not give out 
their figures, and most of what is imported comes in as 
an impurity in lead bullion. One big manufacturer is 
reported to be willing to use a substantial tonnage of 
bismuth if the supply is assured at a satisfactory price, 
but this illustrates a common problem of this group 
of materials, since the bismuth would displace the 
antimony now being used in the lead sheaths of elec- 
tric cables, shifting the demand from one mineral 
substance to another. 

Twenty jears ago practically no cadmium was lieing 
produced, and the smelters of zinc ore, with which the 
metal is chiefly associated, at first found it easy to 
supply the limited demand. The price that I'esulted 
from increased uses later diew the copper and lead 
refineries into recovering cadmium as a byproduct, 
none of this work representing any increased mining 
but merely the utilization of something formerly 
wasted. As soon as the recovery of a byproduct 
reaches the total amount contained in the ore smelted, 
the only way to increase the supply is to seek ores 
richer in the desired byproduct or perhaps ores of the 
substance itself to be adde<l to the normal ore charge. 
Commercial mining of such ores hinges on what the 
smelters will paj' for them rather than on a theoretical 
computation of the value of the ore from its content 
and the price of the finished metal. Transportation 



charges to the smelter are another important factor, 
since such ores are likely to be low grade, and perhaps 
not easily amenable to concentration. It is highly 
Ijrobable, for example, that the trend will be toward 
iiicreased intensity of search for cadmium-bearing de- 
posits in the next few years, but as the total consump- 
tion of cadmium in this country in 1934 was only 
about 1,500 tons, not much increased mining will be 
necessary to double the supply if deposits that are at 
all rich can be discovered. No such ores are now 
being pi-oduced. 

In addition to 'cadmium, the present demand for 
selenium, tellurium, and a number of other mineral 
substances is now met by byproduct recovery. Just 
what could be done to meet a greatly increased de- 
mand no one can surely predict. Arsenic, however, is 
a byproduct of which the present supply far exceeds 
the demand. Antimony is only partly a byproduct, 
and the production is governed by its price level. 

The light metal beryllium may be cited to )nus(rate 
some of the problems that may arise in developing a 
supply of a new mineral product. The atomic weight 
of berylliimi is otily one-third that of aluminum, and 
because it is so light the percentage of beryllium to 
be found in any natural mineral is low ; beryl, the ore 
that will necessarily be chiefly relied on, contains about 
4 percent. Beryl ordinarily sells for $40 or less per 
toil at the mine, corresponding to 50 cents per pound 
of contained metal. Beryllium alloys ordinarily sell 
for about $25 per pound of beryllium contained. At 
first thought it would seem that $40 per ton for the 
mineral would give a wide margin for mining and 
concentrating cost, when it is remembered that bitu- 
minous coal is mined and sized for less than $2 per 
ton. But mining beryl is quite a different matter 
from mining coal ; beryl occurs only in what are known 
as pegmatite deposits, in which it constitutes only a 
small fraction of the total mass. In contrast to coal, 
of which the deposits are typically large and I'egular, 
pegmatite deposits are typically small and irregular 
and therefore high cost to mine. The mine price of 
beryl, therefore, represents a base level and any lower- 
ing of the sales price of beryllium must probably come 
from a reduction of the cost of extracting the metal 
from the ore. 

Outlook for the Scarcer Materials 

From what has been said it is clear that the strategic 
and new minerals are the ones for which technologic 
trends and their consequent sociological effects are 
most difficidt to predict. The outlook for any one of 
them^is affected by the possibility that geophysical 
prospecting may micover mineralized areas which are 
now wholly unknown, but it may be said that what- 
ever possibilities lie in this dii'ection seem more likely 



172 



National Resources Committee 



tu belong to a distant t'ntiirc than to the decade im- 
mediately ahead. AVhile almost anything may happen, 
some probabilities can be indicated. 

With the background of more than 20 years of stnd}^ 
of the mangane.se problem the only possibility that 
seems left for much change is the development of a 
process that will utilize the kind of material we can 
produce, and the same can be said as regards chro- 
mium. Prospects of any substantial production of tin 
from doinestic deposits are poor. Cadmium, selenium, 
and tellurium have been discussed above. There is hope 
of finding additional deposits of tungsten, but the use 
of this metal is threatened l)v substitute materials, and 
present mining is a function of taritl' protection, as is 
the case with quicksilver. No change seems indicated 
in our dependence on foreign sources for cobalt, plati- 
num, osmium, iridium, ruthenium, and palladium. 

Cesium, gallium, germanium, indium, niobium, 
scandium, tantaliun, thallium, and an even longer 
list, can pi-esumably be produced in larger amounts, 
but even a considerable increase over present levels 
Mould still be small, since most of them are little 
more than chemical curiosities. Locallj', of course, 
they might provide significant employment, since any 
demand woidd have to be met by mining, presumably 
in places where little or none now exists. The broad 
sociological implications are quite impredictable, since 
a small quantity may produce widespread effects. A 
practicable jirocess for the separation of neon made it 
available for signs; the quantity needed to produce 
all the signs manufactured in a year probably would 
not fill an ordinary sizeil bathroom. Hence it maj- be 
said that, with few exceptions, technologic trends af- 
fecting minerals in these two groups will have much 
greater effects upon the general public tlian upon 
that portion of it whicli engages in mineral procluc- 
(ion as a way of living. 

Technology and Mine Safety =" 

Mining is the most dangerous of the major indus- 
tries. In 1934 the accident frequency rate in bitumi- 
nous coal mines was 3 times the average for all in- 
dustry and the accident severity rate was 6.7 times the 
general average. Quite apart from the humanitarian 
interest in reducing the suffering involved ai-e the A-ery 
practical considerations of the financial cost of acci- 
dents and the physical limitations upon undei-ground 
work which the hazard imposes where it cannot be 
controlled. Accidents, it is noM- being realized, con- 
stitute an important element of cost, which is largely 
subject to control. Unless the problem of safety were 
met the forces of nature underground would prove 
too much for human strength and skill. From this 



point of view Sir Humphrey Davy's invention of the 
safety lamp was scarcely less imjwrtant than Savery, 
Newcomen, and Watt's invention of the steam pump- 
ing engine in enabling int'u to mine coal at gi-eat depths 
below the surface. 

The problem of reducing the present excessive acci- 
dent rates in American mines is largely one of educa- 
tion, discipline, and public administration. Constitu- 
tional authority to prescribe minimum standards of 
safety belongs to the State governments antl the regu- 
lations adopted and educational work done display the 
wide variation in vigor, intelligence, and competence 
characteristic of local administration in the United 
States. The task of the States is undoubtedly rendered 
more difficult by competitive ccmsiderations ami by the 
economic prostration of certain branches of mining, 
especially of coal. Despite these obstacles, encourag- 
ing progress has been made, yet comparison between 
American and British fatality rates, for example, 
shows that much remains to be done. 

In the field of coal mining the spectacidar hazards 
of gas and coal dust explosions have already been re- 
duced and major disasters largely eliminated (fig. 
31). Building on the primary advances of the 
safety lamp and systematic ventilation, later genera- 
tions of engineers have introduced short-flame or 
"permissible" explosives in place of black blasting 
powder (fig. 31). flame-proof or permissible electri- 
cal machinery, electric cap lamps replacing the open 
torch or carbide lamps, and the practice of rock dust- 
ing.-' These latter advances, now well iniderstood. are 
winning increasing acceptance and seem destined to 
general adoption wherever the hazard of explosion is 
serious. Another possible advance deserving of trial 
is the Diesel mine locomotive.-* European mining 
engineers claim that Diesel locomotives of certain ap- 
proved types involve less hazard of igniting gas and 
coal dust than the electric ti-olley locomotive and that 
the exhaust gases which condemned gasoline locomo- 
tives in the mines are not a serious problem with the 
Diesel. With these methods and devices at hand, it 
is now clear that there is no more necessity for a major 
explosion in a coal mine than for an epidemic of 
typhoid in a modern city. The problem is largely one 
of education. 

In the related field of mine fires, which have caused 
some of the worst disasters, in metal mines as well as 



=" fty George S. Rice, chief mintni; engineer. U. R. Buro.nii of Mines. 



'■ "I'crmissible" explosives and equipment are those ofTicially te.«te(l 
and approved by the Bureau of Mines for use in gassy mines. The 
value of rock dusting, when efficiently applied, is unquestioned. 

•" Die.sel locomotives are not so well adapted for work on heavy and 
changing grades, a fact which may prevent their use in some cases. 
Evidently, however, there are many mines in the United States where 
this would not be a serious obstacle. No locomotives of this type have 
yet been installed underground in this country. Uice, George S., and 
Harris, F. K., Diesel Mine Locomotives. V. S. Bureau of Mines. Reports 
of Invesrigations, :!320. 1036. 



Technological Trends 



173 



coal, progress is also bein<i made. Here the lines of 
attack are larjiely j)reveiitive and educational. They 
have included replacing open-flame lamps with electric 
cap lamps, lining shafts and portals with concrete, 
providing lire-fighting apparatus, assuring that the 
shaft tlirougli wliich men enter and leave shall be u.sed 
as the intake airway, anil training men how to protect 
themselves if trapped below by walling themselves in 
and conserving the uncontaminated air. Among the 
specific inventions in tliis field are oxygen breathing 
apparatus and special gas masks. 

Mining, like other industries, has its machinery haz- 
ards, aggravated by the confined space underground. 
Electrification raises dangers of its own. As on the 
surface, the lines of attack include protection from 
moving parts, careful installation, frequent inspection 
of equipment, and teaching men to be careful. Some 
larger mines have installed block signals on haulage 
lines and automatic controls in hoisting. 

But the greatest hazards to life undei-ground are 
falls of roof or coal. More than lialf the deaths are 
due to this cause. When an unfortunate Floyd Col- 
lins is ti'apped alive underground and his untrained 
friends dig frantically to rescue him, people follow 
the story from morning to evening in the daily papers. 
But death through crushing under a sudden fall is 
so conunon that it is hardly news. In the year 1929 
a total of 1,297 men were crushed to death under- 
ground. Prevention of the.se accidents is chiefly a 
matter of education, supervision, and discipline. 
"Ninety percent of the problem is management." But 
here also the searcher for inventions discovers certain 
specific ideas or devices that help. Among these are 
steel props and arches and the develoi)ment of systems 
of mining which will avoid the sudden bursts of coal 
or rock known as '"bumps" which develop under cei'tain 
conditions. Effective lighting at the face makes the 
siens of danger more visible. The miner himself can 
be protected from injury and sometimes from death 
by hard-toed boots, heavy gloves, goggles to ward off 
flying particles, and steel hats resembling a trench 
helmet. The last-named device is coming into wide 
use and has saved numerous lives and prevented many 
lesser accidents. 

No less important than accident under some condi- 
tions is the problem of occupational disease. Many 
underground dusts, such as coal, limestone, and some 
shale dusts, are thought by many authorities to cause 
little harm to the human system. But the lead- or 
arsenic-bearing dusts associated with some types of 
ore may be poisonous. The most serious problem re- 
lates to the siliceous dusts produced by drilling or 
blasting in rocks high in silica content. Here the lines 
of attack include delaying the firing of shots until 
the end of the shift and allowing time for tlic dust to 



settle, drilling with water-injection drills, wetting 
down the broken ore before it is loaded, use of respi- 
rators in extreme conditions, and adequate ventilation. 
The im])ortance of effective ventilation in reducing the 
hazard of coal-mine explosions or in cooling the tem- 
peratures of deep workings has already been men- 
tioned. In addition, it is one of the chief safeguards 
against silicosis and other pulmonary diseases. 

The i)opular discussion of silicosis now current in 
tlie papers doubtless contains much of misinforma- 
tion, but it will serve a useful purpose in directing 
scientific inquiry to an important and not fidly under- 
.stood problem. It is not too much to hope that the 
imi)rovenients in mining practice above enumerated, 
frecpient medical examination, and prompt attention 
to symptoms of danger can keep silicosis under reason- 
able control and remove this barrier to man's penetra- 
tion of the underearth. 






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FiGi-RB .'il. Coal-mine fatalities due to gas and dust explosions, and to 
the use of explosives themsclve.s. 

Hazards through explosions of gas and coal dust in .\nKTican bitumino