After a year in television that’s been both violently bleak and relentlessly optimistic, how can anyone predict who comes out on top? We’ll give it a try. Ahead, our Emmy nominations 2022 predictions represent our best effort to see the future in a slew of Emmy categories, from the juggernaut showdown of Succession vs. Squid Game in best drama series to the return battle of Saturday Night Live vs. A Black Lady Sketch Show in variety sketch series. In between, there are Oscar winners squaring off, comedy veterans fending off newcomers, and the eternally unpredictable guest-actor categories. Join us as we make our best guess, and tune in to watch the Emmy nominations announcement on July 12.

Drama Series

Better Call Saul
Ozark
Severance
Squid Game
Stranger Things
Succession
Yellowjackets
Yellowstone

Just how unbeatable is Succession? The HBO drama, which swept the Emmys in its last year of eligibility (2020), faces that question this go-round, with acclaim and buzz as strong as ever but some spritely new contenders sure to steal a little bit of its thunder. At minimum, the returning champ will be nominated again, along with fellow category stalwarts Better Call Saul, Stranger Things, and Ozark—the latter of which could garner some serious heat as it competes for its final season. Then you have to figure Yellowstone will at last make its mark here—like many beloved dramas before it, such as The Americans and Friday Night Lights, it can take voters a few seasons to catch onto a hit. With SAG and PGA nominations now under the Paramount Network Western’s belt, it’s clear the industry has caught up to viewers.

A guide to Hollywood’s biggest races

That leaves three spots, with several more returning contenders in the mix: NBC’s This Is Us, a four-time nominee in this field, went out on a high, while Netflix’s Bridgerton was cited last year and roared back with record-setting ratings (if not great reviews). There’s also BBC America’s Killing Eve, which ended with too much of a whimper to make a final mark here. Indeed, all told, there’s no denying that the momentum is with the newcomers: Netflix’s Squid Game, a sure thing for a nod and likely Succession’s biggest competition; Showtime’s Yellowjackets, a word-of-mouth phenomenon already nominated for top industry awards like WGA; and Apple TV+’s Severance, the critical darling that found its audience slowly but very surely. Can all three make the cut? We say yes—but it’s close. —David Canfield

Actor in a Drama Series

Sterling K. Brown, This Is Us
Brian Cox, Succession
Lee Jung-jae, Squid Game
Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
Adam Scott, Severance
Jeremy Strong, Succession

The ongoing battle between Kendall and Logan Roy will continue at the Emmys this year, with both Jeremy Strong and Brian Cox likely to represent Succession here. Strong's performance has gotten more attention than ever since that infamous New Yorker profile, but standing in the way of a repeat victory is Bob Odenkirk—who may well be the one to beat this year. We expect Emmy voters will take what actually is their final chance to reward Sterling K. Brown for This Is Us, and get on board a Squid Game surge with a nomination for SAG Award winner Lee Jung-jae. For that last spot, it could very well finally be time for Kevin Costner to represent the juggernaut Yellowstone, or for Jason Bateman to take a victory lap for Ozark. But we’re taking a flyer on breakout freshman series Severance and its star, Adam Scott, who has somehow never been Emmy nominated. It’s high time for that to change. —Katey Rich

Actress in a Drama Series

Jennifer Aniston, The Morning Show
Laura Linney, Ozark
Melanie Lynskey, Yellowjackets
Mandy Moore, This Is Us
Kelly Reilly, Yellowstone
Zendaya, Euphoria

Can even a beloved star like Jennifer Aniston overcome the largely ridiculed second season of The Morning Show to score a second nomination for her lead performance? That’s one of the questions animating this category this year, which otherwise looks like it’ll be populated, per usual, by both vets (previous nominee Moore; previous winner Zendaya; Linney, up for her last outing in Ozark) and first-timers (Lynskey, a sentimental favorite for her raw work in Showtime’s survival drama; Reilly, who seems likely to ride a new wave of appreciation for TV’s most-watched show). Their nominations will most likely crowd out two women who once seemed like sure things every year: Sandra Oh and Jodie Comer, whose series, Killing Eve, sputtered out this spring, leaving an internet uproar in its wake. —Hillary Busis

Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Jonathan Banks, Better Call Saul
Nicholas Braun, Succession
Billy Crudup, The Morning Show
Kieran Culkin, Succession
Giancarlo Esposito, Better Call Saul
Matthew Macfadyen, Succession
Oh Yeong-su, Squid Game
John Turturro, Severance

Welcome to Succession-fest! HBO’s Emmy-winning drama could potentially nab half of the eight available slots for best supporting actor in a drama series this year. Of the cabal of corporate bros who are most likely to earn Emmy nominations, your best bets are Kieran Culkin’s text-trigger-happy Roman and Matthew Macfadyen’s conniving Tom. We think Nicholas Braun’s Greg the Egg will get a lift as well, potentially leaving costar Alan Ruck out in the cold (sorry, Con!). Expect 2020 best-supporting-actor winner Billy Crudup to make the cut once more, as well as Better Call Saul costars Jonathan Banks and Giancarlo Esposito. That leaves two potential slots for new shows: Squid Game and Severance. South Korean actor Oh Yeong-Su, who played Oh Il-nam on Netflix smash hit, should follow up his untelevised Golden Globe win with an Emmy nomination. And beloved character actor and previous Emmy winner John Turturro has a great shot of rounding out the category, representing Severance’s stellar ensemble cast. —Chris Murphy

Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

Patricia Arquette, Severance
Julia Garner, Ozark
Hoyeon, Squid Game
Christina Ricci, Yellowjackets
Rhea Seehorn, Better Call Saul
Sadie Sink, Stranger Things
Sarah Snook, Succession
Sydney Sweeney, Euphoria

Beyond two-time category winner Julia Garner and nominee Sarah Snook, this field feels fairly open. Hot off her surprise SAG Award win, expect Hoyeon to continue her Squid Game hot streak. Patricia Arquette, who has Emmys for Medium and The Act, is a front-runner for her turn as Severance’s chilling corporate overlord. And thanks to her shrewd shift from lead, where all of her costars are competing, Christina Ricci is a likely inclusion for Yellowjackets. Just as record ratings yielded supporting-actress nods for Game of Thrones, the similarly zeitgeisty Euphoria and Stranger Things may follow suit. Cassie’s emotional roller coaster of a season on Euphoria means good things for Sydney Sweeney’s odds. And Sadie Sink is poised to become the second Hawkins, Indiana, teen (after two-time nominee Millie Bobby Brown) to get a nod for her Kate Bush–assisted standout episode, “Dear Billy.” Finally, after six seasons of exemplary work on Better Call Saul, this should be the year Rhea Seehorn cuts through the noise—but beware J. Smith Cameron’s scene-stealing season on Succession. —Savannah Walsh

Guest Actor in a Drama Series

Adrien Brody, Succession
Ron Cephas Jones, This Is Us
James Cromwell, Succession
Colman Domingo, Euphoria
Martin Short, The Morning Show
Alexander Skarsgård, Succession

Could Martin Short score rare double nominations this year—one in lead comedy actor for Only Murders in the Building, one in this more eclectic category? That may depend on how enamored the TV Academy is of the final season of Ozark, and the first season of Severance. Both Tom Pelphrey and Yul Vazquez, respectively, could sneak into guest actor, particularly if The Morning Show is overlooked more broadly. But it’s hard to imagine any of those possibilities ultimately triumphing over the guest men of Succession, a mighty trio of profane powerhouse performances—from Brody’s billionaire to Skarsgård’s billionaire to Cromwell’s mere millionaire. —H.B.

Guest Actress in a Drama Series

Hope Davis, Succession
Rosario Dawson, The Book of Boba Fett
Sanaa Lathan, Succession
Elaine May, The Good Fight
Harriet Walter, Succession
Jacki Weaver, Yellowstone

With last year’s nominations juggernaut in this category The Handmaid’s Tale ineligible, we’re expecting a stronger-than-ever showing for Succession, which somehow makes room for outstanding guest performance alongside its huge central cast. Harriet Walter has been nominated for the show before, and the past season featured plum roles for both Sanaa Lathan as a calculating attorney and Hope Davis (a two-time Emmy nominee) as a corporate scion who fits right in with the Roys. Elsewhere, Elaine May’s appearance as none other than Ruth Bader Ginsburg on The Good Fight seems irresistible, and the pop-culture dominance of Rosario Dawson’s The Book of Boba Fett feels like a worthy inclusion as well. And finally, two-time Oscar nominee Jacki Weaver ought to easily ride the Yellowstone wave into a spot on this list. —K.R.

Writing for a Drama Series

Jesse Armstrong, Succession (“All the Bells Say”)
Dan Erickson, Severance (“The We We Are”)
Hwang Dong-hyuk, Squid Game (“One Lucky Day”)
Ashley Lyle and Bart Nickerson, Yellowjackets (“Pilot”)
Chris Mundy, Ozark (“A Hard Way to Go”)
Thomas Schnauz, Better Call Saul (“Plan and Execution”)
Taylor Sheridan, Yellowstone (“Half the Money”)

The writers’ branch of the Television Academy leans toward slightly more adventurous work than its peers, which means even if Severance doesn’t land otherwise, the one episode submitted on the ballot (the exceptional season finale) should be a shoo-in for recognition. Ditto Succession and Squid Game, drama-series front-runners with only one writing contender apiece. Both Ozark and Yellowjackets, meanwhile, submitted two episodes. These voters love pilots, which should be enough for a newbie like Showtime’s survival thriller, while Ozark’s strategy to dominate the field tracks, seeing as it got three writing nominations for its last season. Similarly, Better Call Saul has, as usual, completely saturated the ballot by submitting six episodes. Do these top contenders split themselves out of nominations? Lucky for both shows, the writing branch has nominated them consistently. We’ll bet that Saul’s midseason finale and Ozark’s series finale, respectively, garner sufficient support. Finally, if Yellowstone gets its long-awaited Emmy moment as expected, bet that Taylor Sheridan will too. —D.C.

Directing for a Drama Series

Jason Bateman, Ozark (“A Hard Way to Go”)
Hwang Dong-hyuk, Squid Game (“Red Light, Green Light”)
Karyn Kusama, Yellowjackets (“Pilot”)
Shawn Levy, Stranger Things (“Chapter Four: Dear Billy”)
Mark Mylod, Succession (“All the Bells Say”)
Lorene Scafaria, Succession (“Too Much Birthday”)
Ben Stiller, Severance (“The We We Are”)

This category tends to align with the best-drama-series front-runners, making at least two nominations for Succession likely: Mark Mylod’s Shakespearan finale and Lorene Scafaria’s tension-filled take on Kendall’s 40th birthday. Pilots for breakout shows Yellowjackets and Squid Game are strong contenders, as are the propulsive finales of Ozark (directed by previous category winner Jason Bateman) and Severance. Expect Stranger Things to capture the last spot for its buzzy fourth season. Two episodes were submitted, including the Duffer brothers’ midseason finale, but Shawn Levy’s entry, “Chapter Four: Dear Billy,” (Or That Time Sadie Sink Ran Up a Hill) could woo voters given its choke hold on the zeitgeist. —S.W.

Comedy Series

Abbott Elementary
Atlanta
Barry
Curb Your Enthusiasm
Hacks
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Only Murders in the Building
Ted Lasso

By my count, 14 past nominees in this category are in contention this year—for eight slots. And that doesn’t even count the many freshmen likely to crash the race. So many hearts to break!

Start with the reigning champ, Ted Lasso, and the show which surely finished just behind it, Hacks. Even with a little steam lost on both streaming breakouts, there’s no reason they’ll fall out after such an impressive first-year haul. (Sadly, 2021’s other first-time category nominees—Pen15, Cobra Kai, Emily in Paris, and The Flight Attendant—will not be pulling off an encore with so much added competition.) Similarly, after taking the year(s) off, it’s hard to see how Barry or The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel would get cut—the former is coming off of its most acclaimed run to date, while the latter is a past category winner with enough goodwill left over.

Atlanta, Black-ish, Curb Your Enthusiasm, Insecure, Russian Doll, and What We Do in the Shadows are also all back in the running after taking at least a year off. Of the six, Black-ish and Insecure feel likeliest to fade—both ended months before voting commenced, and neither was ever a favorite with voters, exactly—while Atlanta, divisive as it may have been in season three, seems safest to return based on its track record. It’s likely behind two red-hot newbies, though, in Only Murders in the Building, which Hulu hopes can go all the way, and Abbott Elementary, the great broadcast hope nicely fitting into Black-ish’s ABC spot. The eighth spot is a toss-up: It could be any of those aforementioned vets, or another acclaimed first-timer like FX’s Reservation Dogs. To me, it feels foolish to bet against Curb Your Enthusiasm, which has been nominated here every time possible since its second season in…2002. For a certain, sizable segment of the Academy, it’s still running very strong. —D.C.

Actor in a Comedy Series

Anthony Anderson, Black-ish
Bill Hader, Barry
Nicholas Hoult, The Great
Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building
Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building
Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso

In a crowded field, best actor in a comedy series looks like it might come down to a two-horse race between two Saturday Night Live vets and previous winners in this category: Jason Sudeikis for Ted Lasso, and Bill Hader for Barry. Sudeikis took home the trophy last year, while Hader won back-to-back in 2018 and 2019—and Barry’s critically acclaimed return after multiple years off air might give Hader the slight edge. Either way, you can bet they’ll both be nominated. Expect two more slots to go to another SNL veteran and a 15-time SNL host: Martin Short and Steve Martin for their career-best work in Only Murders in the Building.

The last two slots are somewhat more up for grabs. Anthony Anderson has earned a whopping seven consecutive Emmy nominations for his work on Black-ish, and with the series coming to an end this spring, he’s likely to be nominated again. Perhaps 2017 best-actor-in-a-comedy winner Donald Glover will nab a nom for the return of Atlanta. But given the show’s divisive third season and the fact that Glover only appeared in about half the episodes, we’re going to bet on SAG nominee Nicholas Hoult to nab the final slot for his stellar work on season two of The Great. —C.M.

Actress in a Comedy Series

Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary
Selena Gomez, Only Murders in the Building
Sarah Lancashire, Julia
Issa Rae, Insecure
Jean Smart, Hacks

The dominant force of last season, Jean Smart, will be back to defend her crown here against a wide range of veterans and newcomers. With Insecure airing its final season, multihyphenate Issa Rae ought to return alongside a new writer-star, Abbott Elementary’s Quinta Brunson. Selena Gomez will be among many nominees for Hulu’s breakout hit Only Murders in the Building, and while it’s possible The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel won’t get the huge nominations tally it’s been known for in years past, it’s hard to imagine its Emmy-winning lead, Rachel Brosnahan, missing out. Finally, HBO Max’s Julia has been a quiet smash in the past few months, and everyone who’s seen it has raved about star Sarah Lancashire, making her American TV debut after decades of beloved work in Britain. An Emmy nomination ought to introduce her to an even broader, adoring audience. —K.R.

Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Anthony Carrigan, Barry
Paul W. Downs, Hacks
Brett Goldstein, Ted Lasso
Nick Mohammed, Ted Lasso
Tony Shalhoub, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Kenan Thompson, Saturday Night Live
Henry Winkler, Barry
Bowen Yang, Saturday Night Live

We’re anticipating a couple of wild cards in this category, or at least one: Downs, who won an Emmy last year for writing the pilot of Hacks and seems poised to earn his first-ever acting nomination for the show’s second season, which gave him a big, Jerry Maguire–esque moment. That ascension may depend, however, on how Hacks performs overall; it’s up against stiff competition in the form of beloved programs like Ted Lasso and Barry, a pair of bona fide Emmy juggernauts. (Even if it increasingly feels wrong to call either one a straight-up comedy. Same goes for Hacks, for that matter.) We can likely count on another nom for Tony Shalhoub’s long list, despite Mrs. Maisel’s less than critically beloved fourth season, and more accolades for SNL standouts Thompson and Yang. But there’s so much TV out there that it also seems wrong to discount dark horses like Stephen Root (another one from Barry), Brian Tyree Henry (of Atlanta), or even Taika Waititi, taking a trip in front of the camera for the cult favorite Our Flag Means Death. —H.B.

Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Alex Borstein, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Hannah Einbinder, Hacks
Sarah Goldberg, Barry
Janelle James, Abbott Elementary
Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live
Cecily Strong, Saturday Night Live
Juno Temple, Ted Lasso
Hannah Waddingham, Ted Lasso

Three supporting-actress champs may duke this one out: Returning winner Waddingham, showing no signs of slowing down; Maisel’s Borstein, who got series-best material this season; and SNL’s McKinnon, whose grand farewell could translate to a final awards embrace. Beyond that, for the rest of the nominations, who knows? Hopefully, the particularly standout performances have a leg up despite an abundance of competition: Barry’s Goldberg, so tremendous in this past run of episodes (she was nominated once before); Hacks’ Einbinder, still matching Jean Smart punch line for punch line; and Abbott Elementary’s James, who steals every scene she’s in. You could just as easily predict her Abbott costar Sheryl Lee Ralph; ditto fellow SNL departee Aidy Bryant. But it’ll take a lot for voters to ignore SNL’s Strong, such a consistent standout in sketches, or Lasso’s Temple, who would’ve won last year if not for her costar. With so many others you can’t rule out—Only Murders’ Amy Ryan, Hacks’ Meg Stalter, The Other Two’s Molly Shannon, Insecure’s Yvonne Orji, Atlanta’s Zazie Beetz—some big surprises are inevitable. —D.C.

Guest Actor in a Comedy Series

Jerrod Carmichael, Saturday Night Live
James Caverly, Only Murders in the Building
Nathan Lane, Only Murders in the Building
John Mulaney, Saturday Night Live
Devon Sawa, Hacks
Jason Sudeikis, Saturday Night Live

Saturday Night Live hosts have dominated this category for years, meaning surefire nods for comedic performers with major years—Jason Sudeikis (also likely to be recognized for Ted Lasso), Jerrod Carmichael (his groundbreaking special, Rothaniel, is a front-runner too) and John Mulaney (currently on his sprawling post-rehab tour, From Scratch). The other half will be occupied by standouts from best-comedy-series heavyweights. Devon Sawa memorably romanced Jean Smart’s Deborah Vance on Hacks; Nathan Lane gave a scene-stealing turn as scheming deli tycoon Teddy Dimas on Only Murders in the Building; and so did James Caverly, who headlines the show’s largely spoken-dialogue-free episode “The Boy From 6B” as Lane’s mysterious deaf son, Theo. If those last two actors are nominated, they’ll each make history—Lane as the most nominated in this category, and Caverly as the first deaf actor ever honored. —S.W.

Guest Actress in a Comedy Series

Gillian Anderson, The Great
Ariana DeBose, Saturday Night Live
Jane Lynch, Only Murders in the Building
Laurie Metcalf, Hacks
Tracey Ullman, Curb Your Enthusiasm
Harriet Walter, Ted Lasso

Congratulations, Ariana DeBose! You’ve likely been welcomed into one of the most august clubs in entertainment—not the list of women who’ve won a best-supporting-actress Oscar (although, uh, you’re in that one too), but this year’s guest-actress-in-a-comedy-series category, otherwise populated by stately stars of a certain age. DeBose took the stage on SNL shortly after winning a Golden Globe for West Side Story, and weeks before snagging an Oscar for the same performance; she feels like a sure thing. So do the venerable Jane Lynch, Laurie Metcalf, Gillian Anderson, and Tracey Ullman, who have collectively won 16 Emmy awards across their careers. The only question mark here may be Walter, a sure thing for Succession but a slightly less definite nominee for her run on Ted Lasso as Rebecca’s stiff upper lip of a mother. If Emmy love for Lasso is dimmed even slightly, Jane Adams (as Ava’s slightly offbeat mother on Hacks) or Sharon Stone (as another formidable mother on The Flight Attendant) could sneak in. —H.B.

Writing for a Comedy Series

Lucia Aniello, Paul W. Downs, and Jen Statsky, Hacks (“The One, the Only”)
Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary (“Pilot”)
Stephen Glover, Atlanta (“Three Slaps”)
Bill Hader and Alec Berg, Barry (“starting now”)
Sterlin Harjo and Taika Waititi, Reservation Dogs (“F*ckin’ Rez Dogs”)
David Jenkins and Yvonne Zima, Our Flag Means Death (“Act of Grace”)
Steve Martin and John Hoffman, Only Murders in the Building (“True Crime”)

Like many of the other comedy categories this year, the writing-for-a-comedy-series category is frankly overstuffed with past Emmy darlings like Atlanta and Barry. As such, some deserving contenders—like Anna Konkle’s candlelit episode of Pen15, “Luminaria,” or either of Girls5Eva’s submissions, “B.P.E.” and “Tour Mode”—might end up on the chopping block. Expect both *Atlanta—*whose season premiere reimagined a real-life tragedy—and Barry, whose harrowing season three finale shocked and moved audiences, to both appear at least once on this list, if not multiple times. Last year’s winner, Hacks, will also probably return to the category with its season two finale, “The One, the Only.”

As for new blood, the pilots of Abbott Elementary and Only Murders in the Building have the best shot at making the cut. With two slots left, any number of comedies like Ted Lasso, The Flight Attendant, and Russian Doll could make their way in. But we’re putting our money on Oscar-winning screenwriter Taika Waititi, who has two projects in consideration in this category: Reservation Dogs and Our Flag Means Death. Waititi would be nominated only for cowriting the pilot of Reservation Dogs, so we’re giving the edge to that project. But don’t be surprised if the queer pirate romance Our Flag Means Death, which he executive produces, snags a nod as well. —C.M.

Directing for a Comedy Series

Lucia Aniello, Hacks (“There Will Be Blood”)
Jamie Babbit, Only Murders in the Building (“True Crime”)
Cherien Dabis, Only Murders in the Building (“The Boy From 6B”)
MJ Delaney, Ted Lasso (“No Weddings and a Funeral”)
Randall Einhorn, Abbott Elementary (“Pilot”)
Bill Hader, Barry (“710N”)
Hiro Murai, Atlanta (“New Jazz”)

Between Hacks, Barry, and Atlanta, you’ve got three former winners that remain three of the best-directed shows on the air—and with only one episode submitted apiece here, they should be safe to return. Only Murders in the Building has two episodes on the ballot (including the standout episode “The Boy From 6B”), and the Hulu comedy boasts the kind of stylish, meticulous design that the directing branch should really go for. That leaves two or three slots, which you can say Ted Lasso safely takes up—that show has a lot on the ballot, understandably since it so dominated this race last year—or that Abbott Elementary puts a dent in with Randall Einhorn’s pitch-perfect pilot. With Lasso losing a tad bit of steam, we’ll go with a split. —D.C.

Limited Series

Dopesick
The Dropout
Gaslit
The Staircase
The White Lotus

Looking for a buzzy series based on a salacious true story? Odds are you’ll find it here—except, with just five shows to list, inevitably some much-discussed limited series will miss out. Hulu seems most likely to reign supreme with both The Dropout and Dopesick, which have sustained their buzz in part thanks to provocative lead performances from Amanda Seyfried and Michael Keaton, respectively. Last summer’s The White Lotus was such a smash that it’s held its buzz as well—imagine how many Emmy voters have arrived at a luxury hotel in the past year and thought of Murray Bartlett or Jennifer Coolidge. After that it gets tricky, especially given how many of the contenders debuted during the same two-month period in the spring. We’re betting that The Staircase sucked up enough of the true-crime oxygen to beat out the likes of Under the Banner of Heaven and Candy for a spot. And though Starz’s Gaslit had a more muted run, its star pedigree ought to help it make the list in the end. —K.R.

Actor in a Limited Series or TV Movie

Colin Firth, The Staircase
Andrew Garfield, Under the Banner of Heaven
Oscar Isaac, Scenes From a Marriage
Samuel L. Jackson, The Last Days of Ptolemy Grey
Michael Keaton, Dopesick
Jared Leto, WeCrashed

For once, we’ve got a very competitive category here. (No offense, Halston’s Ewan McGregor.) Michael Keaton has led the way since Dopesick’s fall premiere, and after his rousing SAG Awards speech, this remains so. But depending on how The Staircase or Under the Banner of Heaven perform overall in noms, the stellar performances at their center—from Colin Firth and Andrew Garfield, respectively—could give him a run for his money. Oscar Isaac has two contending projects, but the very Emmy-friendly Scenes From a Marriage seems likelier than Moon Knight to bring him his first nod, especially with newly minted Oscar winner Jessica Chastain as his costar. To round things out, you could either go with stars of buzzier projects—Sebastian Stan in Pam & Tommy, Himesh Patel in Station Eleven—or stars whose performances in less-noteworthy projects garnered attention, like Jared Leto, Samuel L. Jackson, or The Survivor’s Ben Foster. (The latter is at a frustrating disadvantage, since TV movies aren’t getting the time of day from Emmy voters anymore.) It’s hard to say between the two factions, so we’ll lean toward the work that might stir a bit more passion. —D.C.

Actress in a Limited Series or TV Movie

Viola Davis, The First Lady
Julia Garner, Inventing Anna
Lily James, Pam & Tommy
Margaret Qualley, Maid
Julia Roberts, Gaslit
Amanda Seyfried, The Dropout

As usual, this category is poised to be the biggest bloodbath at the Emmys, pitting multiple Oscar winners against each other—so many, in fact, that some of the Oscar winners in contention won’t even make the final cut. (Our apologies, Anne Hathaway of WeCrashed and Renée Zellweger of The Thing About Pam.) The two front-runners, though, are actors who haven’t won that statuette yet: Amanda Seyfried, mesmerizing as an unblinking Elizabeth Holmes on The Dropout, and Margaret Qualley, whose fierce performance as an impoverished mother made Maid a must-see. Pam & Tommy had a comparatively smaller cultural footprint than either of those shows, but Lily James so nailed her transformation into Pamela Anderson (prosthetic boobs and all) that she seems assured of recognition. Ditto Julia Garner, whose Inventing Anna accent was wild enough to sustain entire news cycles.

The question, then, is which Oscar victors will be nominated alongside them. There are three major possibilities: Viola Davis, playing an ambivalent Michelle Obama on The First Lady; Julia Roberts as loquacious firebrand Martha Mitchell on Gaslit; and Jessica Chastain as a woman whose personal life falls apart on Scenes From a Marriage. None of those series made as big an impression as their respective networks might have hoped, which could leave one or more of their stars out in the cold come nomination morning. And as much as we hate to pick favorites, the weakest link might just be the most recent Oscar winner: Chastain, whose series feels like a remnant of an earlier pandemic age. —H.B.

Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or TV Movie

Naveen Andrews, The Dropout
Murray Bartlett, The White Lotus
Jake Lacy, The White Lotus
Will Poulter, Dopesick
Nick Robinson, Maid
Michael Stuhlbarg, Dopesick
Sam Waterston, The Dropout

A stake in this category was planted last July by Murray Bartlett’s ticking time bomb of a luxury-resort manager in The White Lotus. He’s likely to be joined by at least one hotel guest, and Jake Lacy’s insufferable Shane is one of the ensemble’s showiest performances. Naveen Andrews transforms into Elizabeth Holmes’s right-hand Sunny Balwani in The Dropout, also home to a commanding turn from Sam Waterston (elsewhere on the ballot for Grace and Frankie’s final season) as Theranos board member George Shultz. Michael Stuhlbarg is eligible for both The Staircase and Dopesick, but his role in the latter as Purdue Pharma tycoon Richard Sackler looms larger. As a pharmaceutical rep experiencing a crisis of conscience, Will Poulter’s heartbreaking rehab scene opposite lead actor front-runner Michael Keaton should nab him a slot. Rounding out the field is Nick Robinson, who plays the omnipresent abusive ex in Netflix’s Maid, a series that’s maintained staying power since October. Then again, in a category this crowded a surprise pick could emerge. Perhaps voters will take notice of Shea Whigham’s maniacal meltdown in Gaslit or remember that Clive Owen played Bill Clinton amongst a starry Impeachment ensemble last fall. —S.W.

Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or TV Movie

Connie Britton, The White Lotus
Jennifer Coolidge, The White Lotus
Alexandra Daddario, The White Lotus
Kaitlyn Dever, Dopesick
Andie MacDowell, Maid
Laurie Metcalf, The Dropout
Anika Noni Rose, Maid

Although it feels like years since we all checked into Mike White’s Hawaiian resort from hell, HBO’s buzzy miniseries is poised to make a big splash in this category. Jennifer Coolidge’s grieving and emotionally volatile Tanya is a shoo-in for the nomination (and quite possibly, the win), and there’s a good possibility she’ll be joined by several of her costars. We’re placing our bets on Connie Britton’s high-powered She-E-O and Alexandra Daddario’s newlywed in over her head. Outside of Lotus land, Kaitlyn Dever should score a nomination for her heartbreaking work as a coal miner in Virginia who becomes addicted to opioids in Dopesick. Anika Noni Rose and Andie MacDowell may both find themselves nominated for their work in Maid, in which MacDowell’s real-life daughter Margaret Qualley plays a young mother escaping an abusive relationship who begins housecleaning for Rose. Leave it to 11-time Emmy nominee and three-time winner Laurie Metcalf to round out the category for her sharp and blistering work as Dr. Phyllis Gardner—one of Elizabeth Holmes’s first skeptics—on The Dropout. —C.M.

Writing for a Limited Series

Antonio Campos, The Staircase
Elizabeth Meriwether, The Dropout
Molly Smith Metzler, Maid
Patrick Somerville, Station Eleven
Danny Strong, Dopesick
Mike White, The White Lotus

Smartly, many of the strongest the limited-series contenders—Dopesick, The White Lotus, Maid, and The Dropout—submitted just one episode here, despite many having the option to add on. Accordingly, all should comfortably figure in to the final category, especially since others like Under the Banner of Heaven and Gaslit may have too much going on here to make it through. Station Eleven also shrewdly submitted only a single contender, and even if the critically supported HBO Max drama doesn’t hit with voters elsewhere, it feels like a show the writers’ branch will go out on a limb for. Finally, while The Staircase has two episodes on the ballot and could theoretically split votes, we figure it’s got enough heat to make it through with at least one. —D.C.

Directing for a Limited Series

Antonio Campos, The Staircase
Hiro Murai, Station Eleven
Michael Showalter, The Dropout
Danny Strong, Dopesick
John Wells, Maid
Mike White, The White Lotus

Naturally, this lineup ought to match the best-limited-series nominees closely—and for directors who were also the guiding creative force behind their series, like Antonio Campos and Mike White, the link seems even more inextricable. Six-time Emmy winner John Wells seems like a natural inclusion here, and though Hiro Murai has yet to win his first statue, he’s become such a major force in the current television age that he feels hard to ignore. Michael Showalter, having recently directed Jessica Chastain to an Oscar win in The Eyes of Tammy Faye, ought to be rewarded for yet another actress-centric feat in The Dropout—even if, once again, his lead actress feels more likely to go home victorious than he does. —K.R.

Competition Program

The Amazing Race
Nailed It!
RuPaul’s Drag Race
Top Chef
The Voice

As ever it was, so shall it be. We would be shocked to see the competition-program category—previously known as the reality-competition-program category—deviate from the same list of series nominated last year: stalwart CBS travel contest The Amazing Race, irreverent Netflix baking send-up Nailed It!, four-time consecutive winner RuPaul’s Drag Race, Bravo foodie feast Top Chef, and NBC talent tentpole The Voice, which premiered in 2011 but is somehow soon to debut its 22nd season. After all, they didn’t come here to make friends. —H.B.

Reality Host

Bobby Berk, Karamo Brown, Tan France, Antoni Porowski, and Jonathan Van Ness, Queer Eye
Nicole Byer, Nailed It!
Padma Lakshmi, Top Chef
Mark Cuban, Barbara Corcoran, Lori Greiner, Robert Herjavec, Daymond John, and Kevin O’Leary, Shark Tank
Lizzo, Lizzo’s Watch Out for the Big Grrrls
RuPaul, RuPaul’s Drag Race

We hope RuPaul is ready to put that bass in his walk, as he is practically assured another nomination for best reality host after leading another spectacular year of RuPaul’s Drag Race. RuPaul has now won best reality host six years running at the Emmys, and is the most awarded person of color in Emmy history. So really, this category is more a question of who will join Ru in the nomination circle. Nicole Byer is quickly becoming another host favorite at the Emmys, earning back-to-back nominations the two previous years for her delightful work hosting Netflix’s Nailed It! Another staple—Padma Lakshmi—should be prepared to go to the Emmys for her work cohosting Top Chef. Two other large groups of hosts—the hosts of Queer Eye and *Shark Tank—*will most likely be nominated as well. If the Emmys go for a sixth nominee, don’t be surprised if you find Lizzo on the short list for her Prime Video series, Lizzo’s Watch Out for the Big Grrrls, where she auditions 13 women to be her backup dancers. —C.M.

Variety Talk Series

The Daily Show With Trevor Noah
Jimmy Kimmel Live!
Last Week Tonight With John Oliver
The Late Late Show With James Corden
The Late Show With Stephen Colbert

Thanks to an eleventh hour campaign from late-night producers, this category will retain its five nomination slots. (Originally, only four nominees were going to make the cut because 19 shows were submitted this year, just shy of the 20 required for five.) Expect four of last year’s nominees, including six-time category winner Last Week Tonight, to return. That leaves an open space, which could go to Conan for its final 12 episodes (although conventional wisdom suggests its best shot was in 2021) or Late Night With Seth Meyers, which has long been on the edge of a first-time nod in the category. However, buzz leans toward The Late Late Show—a series that’s been MIA from the category since 2019, but could get a boost following news that James Corden will exit as host in 2023. Then again, nothing could reinvigorate this lineup like a surprise from, say, the perennially underrated Desus & Mero. —S.W.

Variety Sketch Series

A Black Lady Sketch Show
Saturday Night Live

Oh look, another year of this category fielding a mere two nominees, due to Emmy rules that probably need to change. And look: The two nominees from last year are back in contention again. I love Ziwe, The Amber Ruffin Show, and others as much as the next pundit, but sadly, this one isn’t complicated. —D.C.