RESTRICTED EAST ASIA AND CHINA INTRODUCTION 1. East Asia is a sub region of Asia that can be defined either geographically or in cultural terms. Culturally, East Asia can be traced back to the countries that trace their evolutionary continuity to the earliest Neolithic and Bronze Age developments in what is now China or part of the world that once used Chinese writing. These countries include; China, Japan, Korea and Vietnam.1 2. Geo-politically, it covers about 12,000,000 Km sq (4,600,000 sq mi), or about 28% of Asian continent which is approximately 15% bigger than Europe. More than 1.5 billion people, about 38% of the population of Asia or Map of East Asia: China, Japan, N. 22% of the world population live in Korea, and S. Korea. Fig 1 geographical East Asia. This is about twice European population. Using the UN sub region definition, it ranks second in population density to Southern Asia.2 3. East Asia, episode of economic growth since 1960s, remarkable as it was has been a story of tales. Economists have suggested that the Asian miracle rests on four factors: the will power to catch up, geographical and cultural characteristics, population and sound economic policies. These translated into economic policies that recognized the imperatives of the world economy by promoting labour-intensive manufactured exports, convertible currencies and macroeconomic stability through a set of innovative institutions such as export processing zones, duty exemption schemes, and incentive packages for foreign direct investment. Consequently the collective inspirational East Asia miracle has created insurmountable 1 . http://afe.easia.columbia.edu/geography/geo_eastasia.html, Charles W. Holcombe, The Genesis of East Asia, 221 B.C.– A.D. 907 (University of Hawai'i Press, 2001) 2 http://www. En.Wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Asia. Accessed on 26/3/12 at 05 30 pm 1 RESTRICTED  RESTRICTED influence in the world and has made the region in terms of influence one of the most important shaping forces for the future. The World Bank in 1993, propounded a famous dictum about this economic success; “the Asian miracle.” 4. This paper analyzes East Asia in the context of the world regional system and explores how East Asia as a region of economic “tigers” impacts on the rest of the world. It explores the geography, political systems, economy and regional alliance in East Asia and their implications to the rest of the world. China as an emerging global power is examined in greater detail with a view of assessing her relevance to Africa and Uganda in particular. Regional future trends are critically analyzed in order to gain an understanding and draw lesson for Africa region and Uganda. AIM 5. The aim of this paper is to analyze the role of East Asia and China in the world and the strategic implications on Africa and Uganda in order to draw lessons and make recommendations. POLITICAL GEOGRAPHY 6. There is no agreed upon boundaries for East Asia as a sub region of Asia. Different Agencies have different boundries and brackes depending on the variables the agency is interested in. Howevever, for the purpose of this study let us look at some of these definitions. According to World Trade Organization East Asia has been used to refer to a wide geographical area covering Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, China, Fiji, Hong Kong Special Administrative Regions of China (Hong Kong, China), Indonesia, Japan, Kiribati, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Macau China, Malaysia, Mongolia, Myanmar, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Samoa, Separate Customs Territory of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu (Taipei- Chinese), Singapore, Solomon Islands, Thailand, Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu, Viet Nam and other countries and territories in Asia and the Pacific.3 The tendency of this usage, perhaps, started since the publication of World Bank on The East Asian Miracle in 1993 explaining the economic success of the Asian Tiger and emerging Southeast Asian economies. This usage has also been driven by Asia-wide economic interconnectedness since the 3 http://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/tif_e/org6_e.htm. Trade patterns and global value chains in East Asia: Composition of country groups , Accessed on 11 Mar 12 2 RESTRICTED  RESTRICTED co-operation between ASEAN and its three dialogue partners was institutionalized under the ASEAN plus three process (ASEAN+3 in 1997. 7. United Nations (UN) regional grouping however, limits East Asia to the entirety of China including (Hong Kong, Macao, Mongolia), Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Japan, and Republic of Korea. These countries are commonly seen as being encompassed by common cultural East Asia.4 This paper bases on the UN definition for the geographical scope of the study. PHYSICAL GEOGRAPHY 8. Climate and Relief. The climate of East Asia is temperate with colder winters and warm summers. However, most of the rainfall occurs during the warm summer months, rather than during the winter months like in Europe. This abundant water supply during the warm growing season allows for intensive agriculture, with two and sometimes three crop cycles per year. The summer rains are borne by monsoon winds, determined by the land mass of Central Asia. In the winter, the cold, dry heavy air over Central Asia flows outward towards the sea; in the summer months, the warm air over the Central Asian land mass rises and cooler, moist air from the ocean flows back bringing rainfall over the land. 5 In Japan's four major islands, there are a large number of active volcanoes. Mt. Fuji and other volcanoes are the result of the Fig 2 subduction6 of the Pacific plate under the Eurasian plate within the "Ring of Fire" While some parts of Japan's volcanic backbone are quiet, like Fuji, others are violent, such as the volcano at Sakurajima in 4 . 4 http://unstats.un.org/unsd/methods/m49/m49regin.htm#asia. Composition of macro geographical (continental) regions, geographical sub-regions, and selected economic and other groupings 5 . http://www.easia.columbia.edu Standard 7: Physical Processes That Shape the Patterns of Earth's Surface, Accessed on 29 Feb 12 6 .Microsoft Encarta dictionary. Slide under adjoining tectonic plate: to be carried under the edge of an adjoining continental or oceanic plate, causing tensions in the Earth's crust that can produce earthquakes or volcanic eruptions, Encarta 2007. 3 RESTRICTED  RESTRICTED Kagoshima, Kyushu.7 Tsunamis, earthquakes, volcanoes, and typhoons are among the most powerful natural features that shape and reshape lives in East Asia. The Asian "Ring of Fire" is part of a system that circles the Pacific Basin. 9. The west and north of what is China today are dominated by mountains, steppe lands, plateaus, and deserts. These areas were predominantly settled in the past by nomadic peoples. Over the course of Chinese history, nomadic peoples from China's boarder regions have often intruded upon the settled, agricultural civilization of core China, and in recent centuries, Chinese farmers have settled in the interior regions. 10. Japan is an island country composed of four main islands and thousands of smaller ones. The main islands are, at their closest point, 120 miles off the coast of Asia. Japan's geographic distance from the Asian mainland is cited as one reason why Japan has been able to consciously and deliberately borrow and adapt innovations from other civilizations and to forge a strong cultural identity. 11. The Korean peninsula shares boarders with China and Russia; it is the portion of the Asian mainland closest to the Japanese islands. The Korean peninsula is well endowed with natural resources. Japanese islands lack most of the natural resources necessary to support an industrialized economy. These resources must be imported. The distinctive geographical characteristics of China Japan and Korea influenced the historical development of each country and continue to shape their common future as a region. 12. Rice, the primary cereal crop grown in East Asia, is particularly suited to the warm, wet growing season. Rice is best grown in flooded fields, or paddies. Since rice produces a much higher yield per acre than does a crop such as wheat, it can support a much greater population per acre than wheat. Climate, agriculture, and population size are closely related in East Asia where large population densities have existed throughout history. 13. Population. More than 1.5 billion people, about 38% of the population of Asia or 22% of all the people in the world, live in geographic East Asia, about twice Europe's population. The region is one of 7 .Idem 4 RESTRICTED  RESTRICTED the world's most populated places, with a population density of 133 inhabitants per square kilometer (340 /sq mi), being about three times the world average of 45 /km2 (120 /sq mi). Using the UN sub region definitions, it ranks second in population only to Southern Asia.8 14. China and Japan are two of the world's most populous countries. China supports approximately 1/5th of the world's population but has only 7% of the world's arable land. Japan is the 8th most populous country in the world; its land area is comparable to that of Italy or California. Japan's population in 2010 was 127. 650. 000 million less than half that of the United States, which had 281,000,000 people. China's population is 1.338.3 billion, nearly five times larger than that of the United States.9 15. Area and demographics per country, human development index and capital cities of East Asia. Country Area km² Population HDI Population density Capital (2010) per km² China (PRC) 9,596,96 1,339,724,85 0.663 138 Beijing 1 2 Hong Kong, 1,104 7,061,200 0.862 6,390 Hong Kong China Japan 377,930 127,950,000 0.884 337 Tokyo North 120,538 24,346,000 No Data 198 Pyongyang Korea South 99,828 48,988,833 0.877 500 Seoul Korea Taiwan 36,188 23,174,528 0.868 639 Taipei (ROC) Table 2: Area and Demographics per Country. Source: World Bank 2006a. (www.worldbank.org/hnppublications) 8 . http://go.worldbank.org/K67SR8GMQ0 . Publications & Reports on Environment (Accessed on 5 Mar 12) 9 . Idem 5 RESTRICTED  RESTRICTED 16. Environment. The East Asia is growing faster than any other region. While rapid economic growth has contributed to significant improvements in human welfare, it has also led to profound socio- economic changes, and serious environmental implications such as air and water pollution, rapid depletion and degradation of natural resources, and the rapid loss of the region’s rich biodiversity endowment.10 These, in turn, affect people’s health, livelihood, and security, and compromise the potential of sustained growth and its benefits for future generations. Recent trends such as increasing regional integration and globalization have introduced new challenges with wide ranging implications – not least for the environment. 17. World Bank environment oriented activities in the East Asia and Pacific region aim to help client countries meet their current environmental challenges and to build a framework for an environmentally sustainable future. New and emerging challenges are putting many important habitats and environmental services in danger. In response, governments in the region are working with the Bank and increasing their support for environmental improvements, resulting in many examples of successful and innovative work. 18. Environmental challenges faced in East Asia include among others: Pollution, particularly poor air quality and low access to clean water; sanitation and solid waste collection/disposal; Natural resource degradation, including deforestation, land degradation, loss of biodiversity and increasing water scarcity; Regional and global environment challenges, including chemical pollution and climate change; Environmental management capacity and environmental information.11 CULTURE AND RELIGION 19. Historically, many societies in East Asia have been part of the Chinese cultural sphere, and East Asian vocabulary and scripts are often derived from Classical Chinese and Chinese script. Chinese civilization written script, Confucian thought, and Buddhism that had come to China from India spread 10 . http://www.worldbank.org/eapenvironment/sea-asia. World Bank Report on Strategic Environmental Assessments (SEA) in Asia and Southeast Asia (Accessed on 5 Mar 12 11 Idem 6 RESTRICTED  RESTRICTED northward to the Korean peninsula and then to the islands of Japan, and southward to what is today northern Vietnam; engendering dialogue and exchange among the four countries of the East Asian cultural sphere.12 20. The cultures of the people in East Asia are influenced and deeply permeated by the religious beliefs and practices which are expressed in language, music, dance, dress and all social systems. Major religions include Buddhism (mostly Mahayana), Confucianism or Neo-Confucianism, Taoism, Chinese folk religion in China, Shinto in Japan, Shamanism in Korea, Mongolia and other indigenous populations of northern East Asia, and recently Christianity in South Korea. Here however, we shall only address three major religions that cut across the East Asia. EAST ASIAN POLITICAL SYSTEMS 21. East Asia political systems can be summarized on the basis of its characteristics as: “Asian style democracy”, Patron-client communitarianism; and personalism; (dominant political party and strong state). This characterization may be more broadly applied to East Asian political systems. However, without seeking too much detail in Asian political systems, we shall focus on two major characteristics of East Asian political systems, that is, the unipolar nature of political power and the paternalistic power relations. The former constitutes the “hard ware,” the institutional side of the East Asian political system, while the latter is to be regarded as its “software,” culture side. The two aspects of East Asian politics affect each other, making the whole system work in “Asian ways.” 13 In this paper, we will deal with the former, the hard ware side of the political systems. 22. Political power in East Asian countries has been more or less concentrated in unitary power centers. Thus, borrowing from the field of international relations, we may call East Asian political systems unipolar systems. This relates to the way in which political power and political institutions are 12 . Charles Holcombe, A History of East Asia from origins of civilization to the twenty first century (New York: Cambridge University press1956), PP 30. 13 . Kim Yu n g - m y u n g, Understanding East Asian Political Systems: Origins, Characteristics, and Changes ,Journal of East Asian Studies, Vol. 3, No. 1, 2003, pp. 54 7 RESTRICTED  RESTRICTED structured and thus constitute the edifice of the East Asian political system. Political power in East Asia is unitary in the sense that it is concentrated in one center, be it a personal ruler, a monolithic party, or some coalition of political, bureaucratic, and economic elites. The unitary power center may be challenged from within the power center or without, but the power center in East Asia has been relatively strong enough to maintain its basic resources and means for control despite significant changes in several cases. 23. The unipolar nature of East Asian power is maintained not only within the ruling bloc, but also between the state and society. With the power concentration within their modern apparatus, East Asian states have been successful in controlling and managing an underdeveloped and fragmented civil society. This contrasts to East Asia’s traditional state-society relations where both state and society were relatively static and the state’s control over the society was much less comprehensive. The all-out control of East Asian states over the society is rather a modern phenomenon, a result of the development of modern nation-states after World War II, either through revolution or other means, including the foreign imposition of a particular regime, as in Japan. 24. In the Communist systems of China, and North Korea, power is concentrated in a monolithic party which is closely interwoven with the state, jointly dominating and controlling the still dormant civil society. In capitalist Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, the state took a leading role in carrying out economic development programs, rendering the concept of “developmental state” a powerful analytical tool for explaining the political economy of these countries.14 In this way, despite differing natures of political and economic systems, East Asian political systems show common characteristics of power concentration within a small group of power- holders. ORIGINS OF THE UNIPOLAR SYSTEM 25. East Asian states after World War II shared a common threat perception and pursued single minded strategies for survival and development, manifested in the competition between Communist and neo-mercantilist pursuits for national power. In the process of building unipolar regimes in East Asia, foreign forces played a great part, especially due to the Cold War. The role of the Soviet Union and the 14 . Ibid PP 19 8 RESTRICTED  RESTRICTED United States was particularly decisive for the divided nations of East Asia, the two Koreas and the two Chinas. 26. We also find that the smaller the country was, the stronger foreign influence was, and vice versa. China, one of the largest countries in the world, maintained greater or lesser degrees of political and ideological independence from the Soviet Union, but the small North Korean regime was virtually imposed upon by the Soviets who occupied the territory after World War II. Taiwan was smaller than China and was under greater influence of its patron power, the United States, to the degree that the regime’s legitimacy has depended, at least in part, upon the latter’s moral and political support.15 TYPES OF EAST ASIAN POLITICAL REGIME 27. We classify East Asian unipolar regimes according to the nature of the ruling group, or the location of ultimate power. Some of this characterization parallels with the well-known typologies of party system, but we do not base our typology on party system, because, in many cases, especially those of the one-man rule discussed below, political parties have only auxiliary roles in the political process. We identify three types of unipolar political systems in East Asia. These are, one-party system, one-man system, and the oligarchical unipolar system. 28. One-Party Regime. This is a political system in which one political party, usually characterized as Leninist or quasi-Leninist, dominates the state and society. There are two groups - one Communist, the other Nationalist. China and North Korea belong to the first category and Taiwan to the second. China and Taiwan represented two contrasting models of economic development, communist and capitalist, but shared similar characteristics of one-party rule. The major political components of the Chinese one party system are usually identified as a monolithic and all pervasive party and an enforced official Communist ideology. North Korea show similar patterns of monopoly of power by a monolithic Communist party. Taiwan before democratization had a similar regime structure with the Leninist monopoly of power by the Kuomintang (KMT), with the state no less pervasive and penetrating than the Communist counterpart.16 15 . Opcit, Kim yung- Myung, PP 57 16 Samuel P. Huntington, Political Order in Changing Societies. New Haven: Yale University Press, 1968, PP. 412-420 9 RESTRICTED  RESTRICTED 29. One-man Rule or Personal Regime. In one-man rule, political parties and other institutions notwithstanding, power is concentrated in the hands of one strong man. A clear East Asian example of personal regime is South Korea. In South Korea there has until recently been a dominant party since the establishment of the Liberal Party by Syngman Rhee in 1951, but those parties alternated depending upon the will and necessity of the individual rulers. In other words, in South Korea, political parties were mere devices of maintaining the personal rule of successive individual rulers, which did not change much under democratized Kim Dae-Jung government (1998-2003). Personal rule is also observed in one-party regimes. In early stages, one-party regime is almost always dominated by one strong man, which we witnessed in China under Mao Zedong and Deng Xiao ping and Taiwan under Chiang Kaishek. 30. The most salient example is North Korea under Kim Un; in fact, North Korean politics’ personalization is much more salient than South Korea’s in both depth and longevity, so much so that we recently witnessed a dynastic power succession in this country. Dynastic politics was also seen in Taiwan in the power succession from the elder Chiang to his son Chiang Chung kuo. In this sense, one-man rule is more universal than one-party rule in East Asia, but we still regard the latter as a separate category because of the basic difference found between the two; one party rule is more institutionalized than one- man rule lacking an enduring party, which means much in practices and changes in each type of rule. To put it succinctly, individual governments as well as the regime itself are more stabilized and thus more enduring in more institutionalized one-party regimes than in more unstable one-man regimes. For the same reason, regime change in one-party system is usually slower, more piecemeal, and more controlled than in a more turbulent and volatile one-man regime. We clearly saw this difference in the cases of Taiwan and South Korea, otherwise similar in both political and economic development patterns. 31. Oligarchical Unipolar System. One may wonder why the Japanese political system is characterized here as unipolar, because it has well-established liberal democratic institutions. Although pluralism exists and her political regime may be defined as liberal democratic, power in Japan is concentrated and distributed among a small circle of conservative politicians, big businessmen and 10 RESTRICTED  RESTRICTED bureaucrats of higher posts. This is why we call the Japanese regime unipolar or more specifically, oligarchically unipolar.17 32. The Japanese system is less than pluralistic in the sense that meaningful alternatives for national development do not exist within the system while power is not distributed extensively throughout a wide spectrum of social sectors. Although oligarchical in its basic nature, pluralistic elements certainly exist among the three actors within the Japanese oligarchy and between the oligarchy and forces at large. This makes Japan more pluralistic both socially and politically than other unipolar systems in East Asia, which probably reflects the fact that Japan had earlier and longer experience with modernization and liberalization than other Asian countries. Japanese politics also appears to be more institutionalized and less personalized than in other East Asian countries. Party politics, although dominated by one party, has survived without unconstitutional interruption. However, compared with Western democracies, Japanese politics is still highly personalized, depending upon factional and network politics in which patron-client relationships dominate. ORIGINS OF UNIPOLAR REGIMES 33. Huntington sought the origin of the one-party system in a modernizing society in its socio- political bifurcation. In a bifurcated society, according to him, political leaders are pressed to integrate polarized political interests, and they put great efforts to organize and legitimize rule by one social force over the other. They seek to secure political control and legitimacy through creating a dominant party. This happens mostly in early to middle stages of modernization, frequently through revolution.18 34. Huntington’s thesis applies to the East Asian cases. The emergence of China’s one-party system was primarily a product of the national crisis that China has encountered since the turn of the century. China was torn between antagonistic forces in the midst of the imperialist intrusion and as is well documented, the Communist Party (CCP) emerged as the eventual victor with highly monopolized and concentrated power. The Taiwan regime had the same origin except that it was imposed by the nationalist 17 . Kim Yu n g - m y u n g, Understanding East Asian Political Systems: Origins, Characteristics, and Changes ,Journal of East Asian Studies, Vol. 3, No. 1, 2003, p. 60 18 . Ibid, p 12 11 RESTRICTED  RESTRICTED KMT. The internal structure of the CCP and the KMT was basically the same as the Leninist doctrine of democratic centralism, which reflected the same need for the centralization of power in the wake of military and ideological struggles with both foreign and domestic force. ALLIANCES ENVIRONMENT IN EAST ASIA 35. Historical, ideological and power politics, continue to dominate and shape alliances and relations in East Asia and particularly with Japan and South Korea on one hand as a major regional actor alongside China and North Korea and in some aspects South Korea, especially on the issue of Japan’s occupation and belligerence during the World War II period and earlier. East Asia has had a very long history of interaction and conflict, albeit also many years of positive cooperation and integration. Japan’s occupation of sizeable areas of China and Koreas in the first half of the 20 th century and the atrocities that Japan’s imperial forces committed against the Chinese and Koreans have played a much greater role in current relations. China, South Korea and North Korea’s attitude towards Japan has a strong foundation in the unfortunate conflicts between 1894 and 1945. The Sino-Japanese war and Japan’s occupation of Korea involved a great number of atrocities that these countries feel has not been properly addressed, even if the great majority of Japanese have expressed great remorse over this unfortunate history. 36. Ideology. Another historical factor that sets foundation for regional alliances in East Asia was the Communist triumph in China on October 1, 1949 under Mao Zedong. This triumph was a great shock to the United States as it extended influence into the heart of Asia and onto the doorstep of occupied Japan. The sheer physical size of Soviet Russia and China and of their combined populations, gave a double threat to the American policy of containment against communism consequently sparking off the United States and Russia scramble for alliances within the region that ultimately resulted into a full scale war on either side of the 38th parallel on Korean peninsula. 37. The Third factor is China’s perceived build-up of its military capabilities to challenge the existing ‘status-quo in East Asia as illustrated by China’s steepened defense spending and the up-gradation of her strategic arsenal of nuclear weapons and Inter Continental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs), her strategic forays by its nuclear submarines in the Pacific and intrusions in Japanese naval waters, attempts to intensify the Russia-China strategic relationship and her threats of military intervention in Taiwan dispute 12 RESTRICTED  RESTRICTED and North Korea’s nuclear capability. These are some of the major arguments that are shaping the types of alliances in East Asia sub region. Consequently the United States has not taken lightly to the emerging strategic challenge from China and North Korea and has responded by forging alliances with Japan, Taiwan and South Korea to counter China- North Korea perceived threat. 38. Ideology has reinforced the historical rivalry along the ideological parallel of Capitalism consisting of Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong in the ambit of US protection versus communism consisting of China and North Korea backed by Russia. China allies with North Korea as buffer in her northeast against Japan and made alliances with the Russia against the marauding influence of United States of America and her allies. The ideological alliances that grew out of the cold war struggle shape the security environment in East Asia and have culminated into several bilateral and multilateral alliances in the region with USA and Russia as key actors. This leaves the region a potential area of international conflict, with a number of possible flash points and with absence of a strong regional organization able to deal with conflict resolution. Below are some of the critical alliances in the region. EXTERNAL ALLIANCES 39. South Korea- Japan and USA Alliance . North Korea’s nuclear capability has served to drive closer trilateral cooperation among the United States, Japan, and South Korea. In the aftermath of North Korea’s shelling of Yeonpyeong Island in November 2010, the South Koreans sent military observers to participate in joint U.S.-Japan defense exercises for the first time in history and later both sides announced plans to sign an agreement to allow for the exchange of military goods and services during peacetime operations. In the past, U.S. officials’ attempts to foster this coordination were often frustrated because of tension between Seoul and Tokyo. Tokyo’s new activism in pursuing trilateral and bilateral cooperation with South Korea may have been inspired by a demonstrated strengthening of the U.S.-South Korean alliance. Some analysts see a sense of competition between the two capitals that may drive Tokyo to move forward more aggressively on the alliance in order to counter China’s perceived growing military capabilities. 13 RESTRICTED  RESTRICTED 40. U.S.-Japan alliance. U.S.-Japan Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security, Japan hosts a carrier battle group, the III Marine Expeditionary Force, the 5th Air Force, and elements of the Army's I Corps. The US maintains approximately 50,000 troops in Japan. However, the increasing power of China and her rhetoric against the unipolarity and arrogance of the USA in the region and international relations has created a threat perception of strategic concern in East Asia, consequently leading to new military tensions in the region. The Senkakus dispute between Japan and China and United States intervention on the basis of the provisions of US- Japan treaty and US policy declaration to defend Taiwan at all cost raises the possibility of a U.S - China confrontation. In general, the U.S-Japan alliance complicates East Asia internal relations as illustrated during the Taiwan Straits tensions in 1996 US deployment of aircraft carriers in response to missile tests conducted by China and the April 2001 US EP-3 spy plane incident over Hainan. 41. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). This was established in 2001 with China, Russian, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan as members while Iran, India, Pakistan and Mongolia are observers. This alliance is caucused around China as a deliberate alternative to the ideology of United States of America currently being promoted in the world. The SCO’s declared principles has inbuilt dual function; one of providing a basis for members to work together productively, and the outward-looking one; of challenging USA orchestrated a threat of both strategic and philosophical unipolarity in international relations. 42. Second, the SCO both channels and illuminates many of the most interesting issues and themes of Asian security today. It embodies a new and unprecedented model of Chinese–Russian relations following the initial post-World War II Sino-Soviet pact, the relapse into hostile competition between two great Communist powers after 1958, and the gradual reconciliation between the two countries. It also sheds light on China’s and Russia’s view of the US engagement in the region. Subsequently the Shanghai Cooperation Organization has made a call for immediate withdrawal of US military presence from Central Asia. We can therefore postulate that as the situation unfolds in East Asia today, global peace and stability will greatly hinge these strategic developments and alliances in the 21st century. 43. East Asia today is in a Cold War mode, primarily because the two major strategic partners of the Cold War in this region, the United States and Japan fear that China’s strategic trajectory is taking shape in a way that threatens their national security interests especially the Russia-China Strategic Partnership 14 RESTRICTED  RESTRICTED and China Japan deteriorating relationship over the regional hegemonic politics. Will this lead the world to another possibility of globalized of big power confrontation as was the case during the cold war? No definite answer now but time will tell. REGIONAL BI AND MULT ALLIANCES 44. There are several regional Bi/Mult Institutions in East Asia such as ASEAN+3 (Association of Southeast Asian Nations+ China, Japan and South Korea), EAS (East Asia Summit) and APEC (Asia- Pacific Economic Cooperation). These are the shaping forces of East Asia integration or hybrid regionalism. Through the regional cooperation framework, there are trilateral summit of China, Japan and South Korea, ASEAN+3, EAS, and APEC. The frequent meetings of the leaders of East Asian countries are beneficial for the mutual confidence building and serves as an arena to strengthen regional identity. 19 East Asia has also a regional free trade arrangement (FTA) to facilitate trade and economic cooperation between regional states and apparently the FTA is experiencing boom, recent global economic crisis notwithstanding. 45. Regional financial cooperation is highly sophisticated and the financial cooperation of East Asia proceeds faster than many areas in the rest of the world and could be a fine point for East Asian states to deepen their cooperation. The Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI)20 after its startup in 2000, now has the network of 16 bilateral arrangements among the ASEAN plus Three countries worth approximately US$90 billion. In order to further enhance the CMI’s effectiveness, and as “a self-managed reserve pooling arrangement governed by a single contractual agreement, on 28 December 2009, the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization Agreement was signed and took effect on 24 March 2010. A foreign exchange reserves pool worth 120 billion dollars was created to deal with regional financial crisis. 19 . YUAN Chong, East Asian Integration and Japan’s Regional Policy, A Research Fellow Paper: The Japan Forum on International Relations, Inc. August 2010, P, 5 20 . Chiang Mai Initiative is a multilateral currency swap arrangement among the ten members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the People's Republic of China (including Hong Kong), Japan, and South Korea. 15 RESTRICTED  RESTRICTED 46. By promoting the regional institution, Japan in particular wants to consolidate its economic position in the region, especially in Southeast Asia and balance the development of China by accommodating China into the regional institutions. Consequently this hegemonic struggle produces distrust among East Asian countries especially China and Japan, hence undermines regional cooperation. Yuan Chong, in his paper, “East Asian Integration and Japan’s Regional Policy” scorns at Japan’s regional policy and blames the failure of the present institutions for failure to play their expected role. For example, after 2008 financial crisis, South Korea signed bilateral swap agreements with U.S, China and Japan, in total disregard of the regional financial mechanism.21 47. In spite of the region’s economic success, East Asia still suffers a serious cold war hung over when it comes to security issues. The region has two major regional powers, Japan and China competing for influence in the region. Consequently realpolitik thinking prevents regional states from cooperating closer. For example, although Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralisation is welcomed by regional countries, there is need for political will and leadership of either China or Japan to transform it into a regional institution with similar capabilities as the IMF. Unfortunately the two powerful countries in the region are tangled in hegemonic rivalry hence prefer to maintain a loose and open regionalism. REGIONAL INFLUENCE ON THE WORLD 48. Global influence refers to a nation or group of nations with the ability to exert influence on a global scale. Great powers characteristically possess military and economic strength and diplomatic and cultural influence which may cause small powers to consider the opinions of great powers before taking actions of their own. International relations theorists have posited that great power status can be characterized into power capabilities, spatial aspects, and status dimensions. Although East Asia as a region has a long history of contact with the rest of the world, Japan, China and South Korea members of G 20 group of rich nations and North Korea as a nuclear power, fall in this categorization of nations with ability to exert influence in the region and beyond. After the 2008 financial crisis, East Asia received relatively less impact comparing to the rest of the world and remained the engine of world economic recovery. 21 . YUAN Chong, P, 6 16 RESTRICTED  RESTRICTED 49. Japan. Japan’s international investment position today stands at $5.96 trillion of international assets with a net position of $2.8 trillion. In a sharp contrast with its public sector finances, Japan has the strongest net international investment position of any country. 22 The rapid development of East Asian economy and huge demands of oversea markets stimulated the development of Japanese economy, which resulted in the longest economic boom after the World War II. Consequently, Japan employed her great economic success to ascend membership in various international organizations, including the United Nations, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and uses her economic power and global posture to shape the global order. 50. China. During the last three decades China's economy has grown at the phenomenal rate of 10% per year, sometimes even exceeding 12%. Can China maintain such high rates for at least another decade? China is starting from a lower base, and its 1.3 billion domestic consumers will keep rates up because their disposable incomes are growing.23 This rapid economic growth and increasingly assertive foreign policy, have transformed the geopolitical landscape in the East Asia. 51. Economically, China now exercises immense influence in many regions. From Asia to Africa, even in some parts of Europe and Latin America, China is becoming the largest trading partner of many countries; including several regional powers, as the US influence continue to a gradual decline. Along its path of development, China has introduced fresh concepts and modes and adopted some unique principles that have helped increase its global influence. The first quality is China's independent diplomacy and security policy. China has never sought the help of any other power or power group for its security, not even during difficulties. Even in the days of its alliance with the former Soviet Union, China stuck to its independent policies and refused requests that might have interfered with its national and international affairs. 52. China is a permanent member of UN Security Council, a nuclear power and the world’s second largest economy. Using both her Veto power and economic muscle China has caused a shift in balance of power, and most available indicators suggest that this will be the trend in the foreseeable future. China 22 http://macromon.wordpress.com/2011/03/14/japans-international-investment-position 23 http://www.gov.sg/government/web/content/govsg/. Lee Kuan Yu on China on 30 years of reform and opening up of China in Singapore, Dec. 16, 2008, (Xinhua/Gao Chuan) Accessed on 10 Mar 12 17 RESTRICTED  RESTRICTED working with Russia has kept a check of big powers and created a balanced resolution and fairness in the international relations. Increasingly, this balancing effect and a check on the USA and NATO is being felt and appreciated worldwide. 53. Japan, China and South Korea are members of the G 20 a group of twenty most economically prosperous countries that account for 2/3 of the global economy. Although the region’s GDP share of the world remains relatively the same since the middle of 1980s, East Asia is showing its strength in international trade and investment market. The share of East Asia trade in the world remain steady and in 2008 the total export of China, Japan and South Korea accounted for about 21.8% of the world, and the export of East Asia as a whole region exceeded a third of the total of the world. Asia trade as a whole accounted for roughly 40 percent of the total increase in world trade over the period from 1990 – 2006.24This region therefore cannot be ignored in terms of trade and investment. 54. North Korea. The PDRK has played a singular role in driving global opinion on nuclear proliferation in the 21st century. With nuclear capability, North Korea will certainly be a threat to Japan and South Korea as illustrated by the 1998 test of a Taepodong missile over Japan and so far two tests of nuclear devices and the sinking of a South Korean warship and artillery attack on Yeonpyeong Island. In the short run North Korea nuclear threat and China’s cold shoulder have pushed Seoul, Tokyo, and Washington closer into a military alliance. In 2010, Japan attended U.S.-South Korean military exercises as an observer and, months later, the South Koreans reciprocated by attending U.S.-Japan exercises as a demonstration of solidarity against North Korea’s actions. 55. However, with real possibility and determination of North Korea to acquire a nuclear bomb and failure by UN Security Council to stop her, many nations will be forced to procede with their own nuclear program contrary to the provisions of nuclear proliferation treaty especially Iran is a case in point but Japan and South Korea may want to seek their own nuclear capability. The question is, will UN Security Council or USA prevail on other states not to acquire nuclear arms? This question raises a lot of credibility and moral issues about the Security Council and USA and their relevance in policing world peace. 24 . http://www.cid.harvard.edu/archive/hiid/papers/ecgasia. Radelet S, Jong-Wha Lee et al, Economic Growth in Asia, Harvard Institute for International Development, 1997, PP, 24. Accessed 10 Mar 12 18 RESTRICTED  RESTRICTED 56. After the beginning of the new century, East Asia is playing a more important role in international politics and economy. The East Asia economy has been an important engine that draws the developments of world economy, especially after the 2008 financial and later economic crisis. The regional cooperation among East Asian states is strengthened continuously, and regional institutions become sophisticated during this process, the prospect of the East Asia Community attracts interests and concerns all over the world. Japan has been adapting its policy towards East Asia recently, and is attaching much more strategic concern to this region. In 2002, then Japanese Prime Minister Koizumi Junichiro officially proposed the idea of an East Asia community. THE RISE OF CHINA AS A GLOBAL POWER 57. China a country in East Asia officially known as the Peoples’ Republic of China (Zhonghua Renmin Gongheguo). In ancient times China was the East Asian dominant civilization. From 7 th through the 14th centuries AD China had the most advanced civilization. It had a unified hierarchical administration run by a well educated Confucian bureaucracy which made China a coherent and sophisticated society. China was the first greatest empire to survive collapse where others failed. According to Geoffrey Murray, “other great empires have been short lived lasting for a few generations or at best several centuries. The Chinese however were able to develop a relatively efficient system of government that underlying political units for over two thousand years surviving the collapse of dynasties, invasion and conquest, civil wars and disorder they created a form of centralized government that the west was not to use until 19th century”.25 58. With time the conservatism of the Confucian bureaucracy who disliked commerce and private capital, and external influence strangled Chinese trade. This led to its steady decline at a time when Europeans began their imperialist expansion. China’s political strength became threatened when European empires expanded into East Asia. Macao a small territory on China’s south eastern coast came under Portuguese control in mid 16th century. Hong Kong became a British independency in the 1840s By 19th century the country was ripe for invasion, exploitation and curving spheres of influence. Chinas last dynasty, The Qing dynasty ruled china from 1644-1911. The dynasty became highly integrated with 25 Geoffrey Murry, china The Next Super Power. China Library press, 1998. Pg 3. 19 RESTRICTED  RESTRICTED Chinese culture until its down fall. In the 18 th century, a series of events led to its down fall. Imperial corruption, a series of rebellions, natural disasters and defeat in wars against European powers greatly weakened the Qing dynasty. In 1911 the Wuchang uprising of the New Army led to the overthrow of the last empress of the Qing dynasty Dawager Longyu by the nationalists. 59. The National People’s Party was under the leadership of the Kuomintang which was established in 1912. But China embarked on a 40 years internal struggle and civil wars. The Kuomintang gradually increased its power and in 1924 they adopted the principles of the people(Nationalism, democracy and social reforms). In 1928 the reformed Kuomintang captured Beijing and was able to establish The Republic of China. But the whole country was torn between the war lords and the civil wars between the Nationalist regime of Kuomintang and the Communists under Mao Zedong. 60. Japan seeing China in that confusion decided to advance to Manchuria and conquered the province in 1931. On 7 July 1937 Japan attacked Marco Polo Bridge and attempted to occupy the five western provinces and create another state like Manchuria. They occupied Peking and Shanghai and they took Nanjing the Kuomintang capital (13 Dec 1973). Over a period of six weeks, 250,000- 300,000 Chinese were killed and women raped. The Chinese nationalists advocated for a national resistance. They called for establishment of national unity first to fight the Japanese. The Kuomintang and the Communists against all differences united against Japan. With the help of USA, Soviet Union and Germany Japan surrendered in 1945. This history is still fresh in the body politic of the Chinese people to date. It still shapes the nature, character and attitudes of relations between Japan and China and for the fore seeable future; it will among other factors define what relation will exist in East Asia as a region. 61. The union of communists and the nationalists weakened the Kuomintang administration. The Kuomintang agreement to cooperate with the communists raised national position and reputation of the communists’ movement in China and won more public sympathy. After 1945 China emerged from war but it was economically and militarily weak. Under the sphere of influence of Soviet Union in Manchuria, the nationalists were severely weakened, while the communists enjoyed the support of Soviet Union and became militarily strong. Mao Zedong their leader was able to adopt Marxist-Leninist to Chinese conditions. He taught party cadres to lead the masses and the Red Army conducted guerrilla warfare in defense of the people. Civil war broke out between the Communists and the Nationalists which concluded with Communists victory in the main land China that led to the retreat of the 20 RESTRICTED  RESTRICTED Nationalists to Taiwan in 1949. This led to the establishment of Peoples’ Republic of China under Mao Zedong. 62. Mao Zedong strong leadership brought to economic, social land political transformation of China. He introduced economic, social, culture and educational reforms that were to be the basis of today’s Chinas development. The communist party introduced land reforms which were known as the Great leap forward, aimed at rapidly transforming China from agrarian country into a modern economy. They introduced the mandatory process of agricultural collectivization to finance industrialization. By 1958, private ownership was abolished and households were put under state operated communes. Mao insisted that the communes must produce more grains for the cities and for exports. The communes became cooperatives and wages were replaced by work points. Agriculture communes also incorporated processing and construction projects. 63. Mao Zedong also introduced social and culture change that were aimed at bringing the Chinese together. He banished all religions and mystical institutions and ceremonies and replaced them with political meetings and propaganda sessions. Attempts were also made to educate the rural population especially the women. The party encouraged free speech and party criticism. According to Mao, he was following a pass of socialism that was appropriate for china and insisted that China should follow its own pass to communism. 64. Mao sought political rather than technical solutions. He used mass mobilization, social leveling and attack on bureaucratism. China refused to follow Soviet Union pass of development of social stratification. Though some of these reforms were resented, but eventually they formed the basis of Chinas development pass. These reforms were further strengthened by the 1979 reforms that reversed earlier policies and encouraged foreign investments. The Chinese called it socialism with Chinese characteristics. Dr Rosita Dellios wrote, “All of this economic activity is occurring under a communist party since the introduction of market reforms in 1979, operates a system it described as socialism with Chinese characteristics. These Chinese characteristics are a common theme in the country adaptation to the modern world.”26 CHINA ECONOMY 26 Dr Rosita Dellios. The Rise of china as a Global power. 2004-05 PP 1 21 RESTRICTED  RESTRICTED 65. When China got independence in 1949, the communist state brought majority of the economic activities under state control. It determined production pricing and distribution of goods and services. But with the influence of capitalism and weaknesses in the communist system, China began to implement economic reforms to modernize and expand its economy in 1979. With the reforms, the government has gradually lessened its control of the economy. It has allowed some aspects of a market economy and encouraging foreign investment. MAIN ECONOMIC REFORMS 66. The reform of the land management system; replacing the collective management system of the people's commune with the household contract responsibility system; gradual relaxation of control over the prices of agricultural products and devote major efforts to developing the township and village enterprises (TVEs). The change of the land system and relax of control over the prices of agricultural products, kindled the peasants' real enthusiasm for labor, thus greatly liberating the productive forces and improving the land output. According to statistics, from 1978 to 1985 grain output per capita increased by 14 percent in the countryside, cotton by 73.9 percent, oil-bearing crops by 176.4 percent, and meat by 87.8 percent. 67. The development of TVEs led to rising rural incomes and labour reallocation from agricultural to non-agricultural sectors. Meanwhile, TVEs allowed room for experiments and self-discovery, as peasants experimented on various subsectors such as food processing, handicrafts, shoes and clothing, and in the process some local advantages were found. As a result, the net income per peasant grew by 3.6 times; the number of poverty-stricken people with problems feeding and clothing themselves decreased from 250 million to 125 million, to shrink to 14.8 percent of the total population in the rural areas; and the number of poverty-stricken people went down by 17.86 million annually on average. 68. Related policies on poverty reduction in China. Since 1986, Chinese government has promulgated three files on poverty reduction policy with clear and definite objectives, targets, measures and a time limit. To further strengthen poverty relief, the Chinese Government has promulgated policies on poverty reduction and adopted a series of important measures since 1986, such as setting up special help-the-poor work units, and put forward the development-oriented poverty reduction policy. Since then, the Chinese Government has set in motion a nationwide development-oriented poverty reduction 22 RESTRICTED  RESTRICTED drive in a big, complicated and planned way, and China's help-the-poor work has entered a new historical period. a. The Seven-Year Priority Poverty Alleviation Program. It clearly stipulated that China should concentrate human, material and financial resources, mobilize the forces of all walks of life in society and work hard to basically solve the problem of food and clothing of the rural needy by the end of 2000. b. The Outline for Poverty Alleviation and Development of China's Rural Areas (2001- 2010). It set out the objectives, tasks, guiding ideology, and policies and principles for work in this regard in the coming ten years. For example, from 2001 to 2010, the aim was to solve the problem of food and clothing of the poor, further improved their production and living conditions, gradually changed the backward situation in the development of economy, society and culture. c. The Outline for Poverty Alleviation and Development of China's Rural Areas (2011- 2020). According to the file, more attention was given to increasing the incomes of the poverty- stricken population and improving their capacity. It announced that the aim of the program was to try to decrease remarkable poverty population by 2015, and have basically eliminated absolute poverty throughout China by the year 2020. The graph below shows China’s massive investment in poverty eradication. 23 RESTRICTED  RESTRICTED Fiscal Budget for Poverty Eradication in China 1986- 2009. Source: International Journal of China studies Vol. 69. According to China’s moderate leaders such as Liu Shaoqi and Deng Xiaoping, their first major step in socialist national development was the transformation of the forces of production, not the social relation of production; and focused on the development and application of science and technology, the modernization of key sectors, and the development of a skilled labor force. Education has a key role in developing the human input to production and supporting the development of science and technology. Educational institutions in China are designed to foster the acquisition of skills and knowledge (“expertise”) as well as moral development of the learner. The education system prepares a diversified workforce for an economy in need of different types of skilled labor. Consequently key schools and universities are established to harness every available potential in the search for knowledge for social transformation. The table bellow illustrates China’s educational transformational priorities. 24 RESTRICTED  RESTRICTED National students in regular institutions of higher education by field of study (1000 persons) 2008 2009 毕业生 在校学生 毕业生 在校学生 Graduates Enrolments Graduates Enrolments 大学生数 Undergraduates 5119.5 20210.2 5311.0 21446.6 理学 Science 253.5 1157.1 266.0 1206.8 工学 Engineering 1841.9 7272.0 1918.4 7741.6 农学 Agriculture 97.7 366.8 97.4 385.4 医学 Medicine 367.5 1515.0 390.5 1652.5 管理学 Administration 988.1 3958.9 1047.1 4295.0 哲学 Philosophy 1.6 8.3 1.7 8.9 农农学 Economics 259.0 1028.3 258.3 1080.2 法学 Law 208.0 695.8 200.9 694.1 教育学 Education 348.8 1042.8 328.4 1051.1 文学 Literature 740.6 3107.6 788.7 3270.3 农史学 History 12.7 57.4 13.5 60.6 Source: Tsang and Min (1992). Expansion, efficiency, and economies of scale of higher education in China Higher Education Policy 70. Today Chinese economic base is dependent on industry and manufacturing, Agriculture, services, tourism, forestry and fishing. Industry and manufacturing sector is growing rapidly and forms the backbone of Chinese economy. This is followed by services and Agriculture. Agriculture’s contribution to GDP is reducing while industry’s contribution is growing. According to Liz Julian Economic watch contributor. “Industry is growing at a rate of 8.1 percent. It accounts for 48.6 percent of GDP. Services count for 40.5 percent of GDP and 10 percent of GDP comes from Agriculture. China has a labour force of 819.5 million people 39.5 percent is employed in Agriculture, 27.2 percent in industry and 33.2 percent in services”.27 71. China’s economy is growing at an average rate of 10 percent. It is increasing its purchasing power and the standards of living of the Chinese people are improving. According to CIA World Fact Book, China’s GDP statistics of 2010/11 indicated, “GDP (purchasing power parity) US dollars 9.872 trillion 27 http://www.economywatch.com Accessed on 25 Feb12 at 2050Hrs. 25 RESTRICTED  RESTRICTED (2010 est). GDP Global ranked third behind the European Union and American and the largest and fastest developing economy. GDP real growth rate at 10% (2010 ast); Labour force of 819.5 million, first global ranking (2010 est) and the population below poverty line at 2.8 percent”. 28With this excellent economic performance, it it is predicted that China may overtake USA as the world’s largest economy by 2020. 72. In a period of 10 years China has been able to become the 2nd largest economy from the 6 th position. In 2000, China topped Italy to become the world sixth biggest economy. In 2005, it over took France to become the 5th largest economy. In 2006 it moved on and over took United Kingdom to become the 4 th. In 2007 China became the 3rd largest economy after over taking Germany. In 2010 it became the 2nd largest after over taking Japan. If this trend continues, it is likely to overtake USA to become number one world largest economy. 73. This economic rapid growth comes with both challenges and benefits. China currently is doing a lot of manufacturing and produces a lot of goods. The challenges are how to maintain the momentum, how to get resources to feed the growing industries and how to acquire markets and maintain the existing ones. China is currently the leading importer of both industrial and commercial goods. Its purchasing power has increased which is a positive indicator for regional and international trade. Countries in the region are benefiting from this existing market. China is likely to continue to invest in other countries to get resources to maintain its rapid growing economy. However the majority of Chinese are still poor. There is poverty amidst economic growth. The problem to the government is still on to have an equitable distribution of resources POLITICAL SYSTEMS IN CHINA 28 http://www Chinamike.com Accessed on 25 Feb 12 at 2210Hrs. 26 RESTRICTED  RESTRICTED 74. One Party State. The Chinese Communist Party by all purpose and intent dominates and controls political life, the state and society in China. The major political components of the Chinese one party system are usually identified as a monolithic and all pervasive party and an enforced official Communist ideology. The CCP maintains the right of political leadership of the country, with other political groups acting in conformity with the CCP ideology and political leadership. The head of the state is the president who is elected to a five year term by the National peoples’ Congress. President is largely a ceremonial office. 75. The highest organ in the government is the legislative council called the National peoples’ congress (NPC). Members are chosen for a five year term in indirect elections by the provincial congress, recommended by the Chinese Communist Party, the ruling party that came to power in 1949. The executive power rests with the state council headed by the Premier. The Premier is nominated by the president and elected by the National peoples’ Congress to a two- four years term. 76. Under one country of China, there are two political system schemes. The special administrative regions of Hong Kong and Macau operate under multiparty system. The rest is a one party system. However there are other eight minor parties which operate under the leadership of the majority party. Although opposition parties are not officially banned in main land China, the CPC maintains control over the political system. Other political parties have no right to collect funds or own property in the name of the party. These parties include Revolutionary Committee of the Kuomintang which was formed by the leftist members of Kuomintang who never fled to Taiwan. The China Democratic League, China Democratic National Construction Association, China Association for Promoting Democracy, Chinese Peasants’ Workers’ Democratic Party. Others are Zhingongdang of China or China Party for Public Interests, Jiusan Society or September 3 Society and Taiwan Democratic Self Government. 77. Local Administration. China is organized into 22 provinces, 5 autonomous regions, 4 autonomous municipalities and 2 special autonomous regions. The 22 provinces are; An hui, Fujian, Gansu, Guangdong, Guizhou, Hainan, Hebei, Heilong Henan, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangsu Jiangxi, Jilin, Liaoning, Qinghai, Shaanxi, Shandong, Shanxi, Sichuan, Yunnan, Zhejiang. Taiwan is counted as the 23rd province. The five autonomous provinces are; Guangxi, Nei Mongol (Inner Mongolia), Ningxia, Xinjiang Uygur and Xizang (Tibet). While the four autonomous municipalities are; Beijing, Chong Qing, shanghai and Tianjin. The two special autonomous regions are Hong Kong and Macao. 27 RESTRICTED  RESTRICTED 78. Military. The 1982 Chinese constitution vests supreme command of the armed forces in the Central Military Commission (CMC), the organ independent of civilian control; The military force of China is the peoples’ Liberation Army (PLA) and it has four services; National Army, Navy, Air force and Artillery. Other separate forces associated with PLA are; the peoples’ Armed Police, the Railway Police and the local military forces. China is a nuclear power and continues to upgrade her military strategic arsenal of nuclear weapons and Inter Continental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) and coalesce with Russia strategic to match the US- Japan military capabilities. Consequently the United States has not taken lightly to the emerging strategic challenge hence resurging regional cold war mode. 79. Chinas increasing economic weight will unavoidably bring increased political and military influence globally. China’s growing military might is becoming a threat to other powers especially the United States of America. Chine might use this Military strength for political influence in eastern Asia’s American allies and this might change the balance of power or probably could check America’s dominance. MAJOR PROLEMS OF FUTURE CONCERN IN CHINA 80. China today is faced with a lot of challenges that if not properly addressed will cause social and political unrest and some diplomatic problems. These problems are both internal and external and are political, social or economical. China is faced with internal social issues that Chinese government has faced considerable difficulty in trying to solve. These are regional imbalance, population pressure, unemployment, social unrest and environmental problems. 81. China has several environmental issues that severely affect Chinese environment. One of the most serious negative consequences of rapid industrial development is increased environmental degradation. Increased human activities have disrupted and put diverse effects on the climate in china. This is inconsistent with global climatic change. Climate change characterized by global warming is as a result 28 RESTRICTED  RESTRICTED of concentration of green gas in the atmosphere. This is carbon dioxide gas emitted from burned fossil. China has experienced a rise in temperature with time. There is considerable change in precipitation between regions. China is likely to experience extreme climate weather events. Arid areas would become large and it is likely to experience rise in sea level. Therefore china and other industrialized countries need to put on measures to reduce on gases’ emission into the atmosphere. Otherwise it is a global concern for the future generation. 82. Another social issue of great concern is over population that the Beijing administration needs to tackle. China has been implementing a one child policy that restricts couples to one child. This was created to alleviate social, economical and environmental problems. This policy has brought an irreversible damage to the Chinese population structure. The number of elderly is becoming bigger than the young ones. The Chinese have preferred to have boys than girls resulting in acute shortage of females. According to a report by family planning commission “the male /female ratio is the highest in the world and stands at 1.13 male / 1 female. In 2020 there will be 30 million more men than women in china”.29 This situation needs to be addressed otherwise it will lead to social instability. China is likely to face a burden of aging population and decline of its labour force. 83. There is a severe shortage of water in China. Because of industrial growth, over use, pollution pressure, irrigation and domestic use, water shortage in china is expected to shrink. Water shortage is much severe in the north which has about 42 percent of the population but has only 8 percent of country’s water. Shortage of water has led to lost crops and low industrial output. Shrinking water supply is a point of concern to Chinese government and should put on measures to solve water problems. Otherwise there would be civil unrest caused by shortage of this important resource. 84. Amongst the social problems in China is income inequality and unemployment. There is a widening gap between the rich and the poor. The effects could be social and political unrest. The disparity is also between the rural and urban incomes. China has a system of registration called Hukou for the rural households. This gives them low wages and incomes whenever they migrate into cities. This to many, has been seen as an institutionalized source of inequality and disparity among the population. And it is seen as deterrence for the rural citizens to seek for higher standards of living in the cities. This also is seen as a legacy of dualistic economy, serving as a measure of limiting urban migration thus 29 hhtp://laowaiblog.com Accessed on 3 Mar 12 at 1453Hrs 29 RESTRICTED  RESTRICTED denying rural citizens better living conditions. This coupled with unemployment especially in the interior, are causes to worry. The government of China needs to address these problems to avoid civil unrest. 85. China is also faced with border conflicts with the neighboring countries. One of the worrying problems is the South China Sea which is a regional important energy lane from Asian sea. The South China Sea is claimed entirely China. But other nations in the region including Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam and Brunei have competing claims. They say that they have a stake in the sea and are free to explore resources like oil and gas. China maintains that it is illegal for any country, government or company to develop oil or natural gas in these waters without China’s permission. Other world powers like USA and the United Kingdom say that South China Sea is left free as it is an important passage way for international commerce. America has warned that clashes will occur if the problems are not resolved on an agreed approach. America called for greater international attention to resolve maritime disputes that threaten trade. Involvement of world powers means that China is not going to be left free to continue to claim maritime and territorial sovereignty over the sea. 86. Other territorial disputes of future concern are disputes with Japan, Vietnam and Philippines. In the East China Sea, the Islands of Senkaku and Diaoyu are both claimed by China and Japan. The two countries claim for fishing rights around these Islands. There is growing tension between the two countries. In South China Sea, Vietnam claim sovereignty of Paracel Islands whose territory it shared with China. Today the islands are con trolled by Chinese military. Because of this, tensions have been rising in recent years. Also in the South China Sea Philippine has been at log heads with China over a group of Islands. China claims the entire sea based on the old maps. Philippine says that the area is more than 370 km beyond China national coastline and is well in Philippine exclusive economic zone. Philippines have repeatedly referred to the UN convention of the law of the sea in its dispute with China. With the involvement of super powers especially USA interest in these sea routes, China is likely to be coerced to resolve territorial disputes if it is to pursue its policy of non confrontational. CHINA’S FOREIGN POLICY 87. Foreign policy is a country foreign relations policy consisting of foreign interests. They are strategies chosen by the state to safe guard its national interests and achieve its goals. The approaches are strategically employed and the national accomplishment can either be cooperation by peaceful means or 30 RESTRICTED  RESTRICTED through exploitation. China poses a non-interference policy and Endeavour to pursue peaceful diplomatic relationships. 88. China’s role in the new world order makes it one of the countries to have an increased demand of inputs such as capital technology, natural resources and access to markets. The economic factor and the world competing demands have made China to develop political interests in other countries’ affairs. China’s leaders have embarked on commercial diplomacy as a means of forging political ties to other countries. This will guarantee them of resources, where to invest or attract capital from and expand their export market. 89. Phillip C. Saunders said “over the last 15 years, China’s international economic interests have expanded and the Chinese foreign policy has become more active in response. This strategic track is driven primarily by international threats and opportunities and China’s changing role in the global balance of power”.30 Consequently China changed strategy and ended diplomatic and economic isolation in line with the economic reforms. These made Chinese economy to compete favorably for markets and resources outside China. Disintegration of Soviet Union allowed China to establish relations with anti communist countries like South Korea, became more active outside East Asia. 90. In 1990s China sought to end all border disputes in Asia, improve ties with Washington and European capitals. Phillip Saunders said “stabilization of relationship with United states has been a key part of China’s foreign policy. But China has also made increased efforts to strengthen ties with other countries wary of perceived US unilateralism and disregard for international norms. In 2001-2002 China established strategic partnership with major European countries and began to repair ties with India. China also deepened economic and political ties with East Asia via its relationship with ASEAN”. 31 The strategy of non aggression is designed to enable China access other countries’ markets and invest its capital. The diplomacy that china is building is an indication that it seeks good relationship with all countries to guarantee her economic interests. 30 Phillip C. Saunders, China Global Activism: Strategy, Drivers and Tools. Nation Defense University press, Washington DC, 2006, PP, 4. 31 Ibid pg 6. 31 RESTRICTED  RESTRICTED 91. In a bid to develop these diplomatic relationships China has invested and given Aid to countries in all regions of the world. Geographical distribution of Chinas foreign Aid shows a cooperatively even coverage. Recipient covers countries in Asia, Africa, Latin America, the Caribbean, Oceania and East Europe. The chart below shows China’s foreign Aid fund distribution by regions in 2009. Fig. 4. China’s Foreign Aid Distribution. Source: Information office of the state council of Peoples’ Republic of China. Beijing, April 2011 AFRICA IN CHINA’S FOREIGN POLICY 92. According to Chinese government, china is following a path of peaceful development and pursues an independent foreign policy of peace. That china stands ready to develop friendly relations and cooperation with all countries. In this regard, china is pursuing cooperation with Africa which has the largest number of developing countries in the world. In recent years china has increased its political, economical, social and military activities in Africa. Politically, china has exchanged high level visits with African leaders, exchange between political parties and has had consultation mechanisms with African states. Others are cooperation in international affairs and exchange between local governments. China is doing this with a view of facilitating communication, deepening friendship and promoting mutual understanding and trust. 32 RESTRICTED  RESTRICTED 93. In economic field, china has increased trading partnership with Africa government. It has increased investments, financial cooperation and giving preferential loans. It has increased in Agriculture and infrastructural development. It has given relief and reduced debts to African states. Socially china cooperates with African governments in education, culture and human resource development through people to people exchange. Source: Fig 5: AU HQ in Addis- Ethiopia built on China's $150m grant 94. In peace and security, China has increased military cooperation with African countries. Conflict settlement and peace keeping operations and has had cooperation in non-traditional threats in order to exchange intelligence and to explore more active ways and means for closer cooperation. However, China’s interest in developing countries should not be taken to be on face value alone. Like all countries, China’s vested interests in Africa are largely economical. China has continued to invest resources in Africa to build economic ties with African countries. Africans vast expanses of land, rich natural resources and huge potential for development have attracted powerful countries. Professor Ernest Wilson, Professor of government and politics at university of Mary land said, “Beijing is pursuing a different kind of policy that favors economics over political rhetoric. This transition from a moist orientation to a market economy foreign policy, has led the Chinese to enhance their presence in Africa in search for raw materials and oil”.32 32 http://www.yourdaily.com Accessed on 28Feb12 at 2134Hrs. 33 RESTRICTED  RESTRICTED 95. This is an indication that China’s economic growth and the demand for raw materials and oil are driving factors for its interests in Africa. China has doubled in building infrastructure and other developmental projects. But these ones could be meant to enhance their economic activities. China’s manufacturing sector targets minerals like Aluminum, copper, Nickel, Iron ore etc. Chinese state controlled companies are out in Africa for exploration and to make supply contracts with commodity producing countries. 96. China’s fast growing industrial sector could be targeting Africa as an off loading ground for its products. No wonder cheap Chinese products have flooded the markets in Africa. These products range from toys, clothes, electronics, and construction materials. It should therefore be noted that the massive investments Chinese are doing in Africa is an Fig 6 indication of building good will for future investment. According to The New Vision of 1 March 2012 “China investments in Africa has grown rapidly in recent years surging from 490m at the end of 2003 to 14.7b in 2010”.33 The Fig 5 show foreign investments China made to African countries in 2005. SINO- UGANDA RELATIONS Map showing China’s Trade Relations with Africa 97. Uganda like any other country in Africa and as part of global economy has not been left out in this new world order. China has had long diplomatic relationship with Uganda since 1962. On 18 October 1962 China and Uganda signed a joint communiqué to set up diplomatic relations. China is one of the first countries to open diplomatic missions in Uganda. 98. But it should be noted that, during that period it was the time of cold war between the west and East. China was still pursuing its policy of communism. Therefore the relationship china made with 33 The New Vision, 1 Mar 12, PP 12 34 RESTRICTED  RESTRICTED Uganda was about china getting allies to its Eastern bloc. This was political other than economical. With the collapse of Soviet Union and China making economic reforms, its interests in Uganda have since changed from political to economical. China has invested resources to build political, economical and social ties with Uganda. Politically, according to the China ambassador to Uganda, Zhao Yali, China Uganda political relationship has deepened “The frequent mutual visits by both countries leaders play a vital role in promoting sino-Uganda relations. President Museveni has visited China four times and established relationship with leaders of three generations. In 2001 Hu Jintao then vice president of PRC visited Uganda. China premier Wen Jiabao visited in 2006 and foreign minister, Yang Jiechi, put Uganda as one of the first group countries in his trips abroad in 2008”.34 99. It is not surprising that if China is to access Uganda’s market, invest its capital and get raw materials, then it must create good political relations. To advance its intention China has made investments in Uganda and economic activities are increasing. Some of the activities are; construction of a 1721 acre Kibimba rice scheme in 1973, Doho rice scheme in 1989 and Uganda industrial research institute at Nakawa. Others are Mandela National stadium (Nambole) in 1997, ministry of foreign affairs headquarters at US $ 6.5m, Jiefang trucks to UPDF and other different governmental organizations. 100. According to Chinese embassy in Uganda “The bilateral trade had recorded over 10 million us dollars before 1990. Since 1999 the bilateral trade has witnessed rapid growth recorded and $10.85m in 1999 and $15.27m in 2000. $17.48m in 2001 and $54.89m in 2003, a 63% increase than the same period in 2002. From January to June 2004 it has reached $36.81m, 80.5%increase than the same period in 2003”.35 From 1993 to 2011 the total amount of Chinese investment in Uganda reached $ 596m and around 265 Chinese companies opened their businesses in Uganda. Last year the amount of bilateral trade reached $400m with China export to Uganda amounting to $359m increasing by 43.7% and with Uganda Export to china totaling $ 40m jumping to 49.5%” 36. However this trade is not balancing. There is a deficit because Uganda is importing much and exporting less to Chinese market. This deficit is not good for Uganda’s economy. 34 Idem. The New Vision. 35 http://Ug. china-embassy:org Accessed on 1 Mar 12 at 2124 Hrs 36 Idem. The New Vision. 35 RESTRICTED  RESTRICTED 101. Currently the Chinese government through export import bank is to construct a four lane toll high way liking Entebbe international air port and Kampala at a cost of $350m. The Uganda china friendship Agricultural technology demonstration centre in Kajjasi is already in use. China National Offshore Oil Company (CNOOC) signed an agreement with TULLOW for exploration of oil in Uganda. Some Chinese companies have bided for the construction of Karuma Hydro power station. These economic activities of China in Uganda are probably meant to develop favorable condition for future investment. 102. However, cheap products from china are a cause to worry to Uganda’s economy. The products are not good for Uganda’s industrial growth. Majority of Ugandans are poor. They will prefer cheap products made in China than Uganda products. Chinese Engineers and construction companies bid lower than Uganda companies. But the product of their construction work sometimes is not good. This is not good for Uganda’s development. Also Uganda’s trade deficit with china has more profound effects to the economy. FUTURE TRENDS 103. The twentieth century is likely to witness the descent of the West and a reorientation of the world toward the East. As China gets more powerful and the United States' position erodes, two things are likely to happen: China will try to use its growing influence to reshape the rules and institutions of the international system to better serve its interests, and other states in the system especially the declining hegemony will start to see China as a growing security threat. The result of these developments predictably, will be tension, distrust, and conflict, the typical features of a power transition. In this view, the drama of China's rise will feature an increasingly powerful China and a declining United States locked in an epic battle over the rules and leadership of the international system. And as the world's largest country emerges not from within but outside the established post-World War II international order, it is a drama that will end with the grand ascendance of China and the onset of an Asian-centered world order. 36 RESTRICTED  RESTRICTED 104. The institute of strategic studies Fort Lesley however, has a contrary view. It postulates that China would never carry out power politics at present or in the future, as a developed and much strong nation. It argues that resources spent pursuing power politics would adversely affect the peoples’ welfare and delay the nation’s prosperity and China is aware of this. Accordingly, the most urgent tasks for China are to fully develop social productive forces, to concentrate on economic modernization, to dramatically raise comprehensive national strength, to eradicate backwardness and poverty and to improve the living conditions of the people”.37 Taking into consideration the above factors, China will most likely be involved in a scramble for resources and markets globally hence causing clash of interests with USA and other big players. However, China will likely adopt a peaceful cooperation and mutual development, a strategy that will undercut US influence in her hitherto economic enclaves. This invariably reinforces the idea that the global balance of power is likely to shift from the West to the East. 105. China 2030, according to World Bank report, China has the potential to be a modern, harmonious and creative high-income society by 2030.38 China is now the world’s largest exporter and manufacturer, and is second largest economy. Even if growth moderates, China is likely to become a high-income economy and the world’s largest economy before 2030. Their huge market and economy will still enjoy a very high growth rate in the fore seeable future. Some observers believe that the American era is coming to an end, as the Western-oriented world order is replaced by one increasingly dominated by the East. The question is no longer how but when? 106. However to seize its opportunities and realize its development vision for 2030, China needs to implement a new development strategy in its next phase of development. After more than 30 years of rapid growth, China has reached turning point in its development path. Therefore, she will have to strengthen the foundations for a market based economy by redefining the role of government, restructure state enterprises and banks, develop the private sector and deepen both political and financial reforms. The role of the government and party in production and business, need to change fundamentally. 37 Michael W.Everett and Mary A. Sommerville Multilateral Activities in South East Asia, National Defence University Press, Fort Lesley J.MC Washington DC.1995,pg 79. 38 www.worldbank.org, China 2030: Building a Modern, Harmonious, and Creative High-Income. Accessed 16 Mar 12 37 RESTRICTED  RESTRICTED CONCLUSION 107. There is no agreed upon demarcation of East Asia as a sub region. Different actors use different yard stick to define East Asia depending on the variables the actor is dealing with. Whereas some scholars prefer to confine East Asia to its historical perspective as those countries connected to the Chine’s ancestry, the business and political actors prefer to the perspective of the entire geographical region covering Asia and the Pacific including India and Australia. (Para 1-4) 108. East Asia shares a common Chinese cultural ancestry and East Asian vocabulary and scripts is derived from Classical Chinese script. The region had historical connection with India as Buddhism came to China from India and spread northward to the Korean peninsula and then to the islands of Japan; engendering dialogue and exchange among the four countries of the East Asian cultural. (Para 6-7) Hence the region is a religious and cultural melting pot with culture shaped around Buddhism, Confucianism, Taoism, Shinto, Shamanism and Christian westernization especially in South Korea and Hong Kong. 109. The region sits on a dynamite of volcanic activity as Japan's four major islands, Mt. Fuji and other volcanoes are the result of the subduction of the Pacific plate under the Eurasian plate within the "Ring of Fire" and parts of Japan's volcanic backbone are violent such as the volcano at Sakurajima in Kagoshima, Kyushu hence Tsunamis, earthquakes, volcanoes, and typhoons are among the most powerful natural forces that shape and reshape lives in East Asia. (Para 11) 110. Rice, the primary cereal crop grown in East Asia, is particularly suited to the warm, wet growing season and forms a major component of East Asia economy hence is both a subsistence and export crop on which greater part of the population depends. (Para 15) 38 RESTRICTED  RESTRICTED 111. China and Japan are two of the world's most populous countries. China supports approximately 1/5th of the world's population but has only 7% of the world's arable land. Japan is the 10th most populous country in the world; its land area is comparable to that of Italy or California. Japan's population in 2012 was 127,650,000, less than half that of the United States, which had 281,000,000 people. (Para16-17) 112. East Asia is growing faster than any other region with the second and third largest economies situated here. While rapid economic growth has contributed to significant improvements in human welfare, there are serious environmental challenges as a consequence. Pollution, particularly chemical, poor air quality and low access to clean water; sanitation and solid waste disposal; Natural resource degradation, including deforestation, land degradation, loss of biodiversity and increasing water scarcity and climate change. (Para 21-23) 113. Political systems in East Asia can be summarized as Patron-client communitarianism; and personalism. This can further be narrowed down to the unipolar nature of political power and the paternalistic power relations reflected in Socialist/Communism and Capitalist economic model in the region respectively. These systems cannot be equated to western democracy, nonetheless; political governance has a direct bearing to the economic prosperity of the region hence dispelling the dictum that development is synonymous with democracy. (Para 23-36) 114. There are several Regional Institutions in East Asia such as ASEAN+3, APEC and EAS and the recent one Chiang Mai Initiative side by side competing external alliances involving USA and Russia. These are the shaping forces of East Asia integration or regionalism and disintegration. Through the regional cooperation framework, there are trilateral summit of China, Japan and South Korea, and frequent meetings of the leaders of East Asian countries. These are beneficial for the mutual confidence and serves as an arena to strengthen regional identity. However, the external alliances reinforced by the 39 RESTRICTED  RESTRICTED notion of hegemonic competition between Japan and China often culminate in realpolitik taking centre stage at the detriment of closer cooperating.(Para 37-43) 115. East Asia plays an important role in international politics and economy. The East Asia economy has been an engine that draws the developments of world economy, especially after the 2008 financial and economic crisis. East Asia occupies an important role in world economy. Although the region’s GDP share of the world remains relatively the same since the middle of 1980s, the share of Asia trade in the world accounted for about 21.8% of the world, and the export of East Asia as a whole region exceeded a third of the total of the world. (Para 44-52) 116. The emergence of China as the world’s second largest economy and the stunting US economy shifts the global balance of power to the East. However, the relenting US and Russian interests in the region and Sino- Japans nationalism, sets the region on a collision course. East Asia today is in a Cold War mode, primarily because the two major strategic partners of the Cold War in this region, the United States and Japan fear that China’s strategic trajectory is taking shape in a way that threatens their national security interests especially the Russia-China Strategic Partnership and China-Japan deteriorating relationship over the regional hegemonic politics. (Para 53-56) 117. The China’s foreign policy is designed to enable her access resources and markets to sustain her “hungry” economy. The non aggression, non interference foreign policy is in fact a selfish strategy that trades off moral responsibility and human rights for economic development hence undermines China’s criticism of the USA as a global moral crusader with ulterior motive. Ironically China is seeking to play global leadership role with selfish motive shrouded in a non aggression foreign policy. (Para 69-78) 118. Uganda and China has over time evolved towards economic integration as China invest in Uganda’s economy and Uganda exports raw and finished goods to China. China supports Uganda in infrastructure development such as the construction of a 1721 acre Kibimba rice scheme in 1973, Doho rice scheme in 1989 and Uganda industrial research institute at Nakawa, Mandela National stadium - 40 RESTRICTED  RESTRICTED 1997, ministry of foreign affairs headquarters at US $ 6.5m as well as budget support as a quid-pro-quo for Uganda’s economic cooperation. Nevertheless this has had negative consequences as well. Cheap and substandard goods from China on Uganda’s market not only undermine Uganda’s economic growth but are also a hazard to health. (Para 79-84) 119. China’s economic growth is likely to continue for the foreseeable future and become the largest world economy by 2020. These developments will inevitably shift the global balance of power from the west to the East. However, China’s military capabilities and Sino-Russia strategic relationship versus the Tri-lateral military integration of USA, Japan and South Korea and the creation of US Pacific Command, will be the major factors upon which global peace and stability will greatly hinge in the 21 st century. (Para 85-87) RECOMMENDATIONS 120. In the view of the drama of China's rise as an increasingly powerful Nation and a declining United States in an epic battle over the rules and leadership of the international system, it is recommended that Uganda and Africa should study these trends and align herself accordingly. China as the world’s largest developing economy with a possibility of ascendance to world super power status and the onset of an Asian-centered world order cannot be ignored. 121. The economic success of East Asia from agrarian to industrialized, hi-tech economies in a period of less than 50 years is a good example for Africa and Uganda. Africa should reflect on the experience of EA and draw lessons especially on market capitalism without renouncing the fundamental role of the state in guiding economic development especially in identifying the strategic transformational social- economic levers and eeradicating corruption as a national enemy to the development and security of a nation. 122. East Asian states after World War II shared a common threat perception and pursued single minded strategies for survival and development. It is recommended that Africa should pursue 41 RESTRICTED  RESTRICTED eeconomic nationalism and consistent application of the state in pursuit of power and wealth through home grown capabilities and reverse engineering which are a function of massive investment in Research and Development. With abundant resources, knowledge based skilled human resource and Africa’s huge market, Africa can become the richest and most powerful continent on planet Earth. 123. The socialist national development was based on realization of the importance of transformation of the forces of production, not the social relation of production; and focused on the development and application of science and technology, the development of a skilled labor force through education. Educational institutions in China are designed to foster the acquisition of skills, knowledge and expertise. It is recommended that Uganda and Africa should where possible copy cut this policy of education to enable generate productive labour force a prerequisite for industrialization. 124. It is recommended that Uganda and Africa should however not be duped by the China led world order as a paradigm shift from the current world order. In principal, there is no difference between USA and China. Their modus operandi aside, both countries will influence the international system to enhance their power. The better side of US is that they are open; China’s camouflaged motives should never be under rated. 125. Finally Africa needs a joint development strategy that makes Africa an influential global economic player in the 2nd half of the 21st century. This strategy should focus on developing the human resource, infrastructure, energy, industrialization, markets through regional integration and governance. 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