Population projection

30 March 2023 Long-term care projection: 1.8 million more people in need of long-term care expected until 2055

The number of people in need of long-term care in Germany will go up by 37% until 2055 just because the population is ageing. Their number will increase from roughly 5.0 million at the end of 2021 to approximately 6.8 million in 2055, according to the results provided by the long-term care projection of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). It will stand at roughly 5.6 million (+14%) already in 2035. No great changes are expected after 2055 as the large birth cohorts of the 1950s and 1960s, the baby boomers, will then be replaced by smaller birth cohorts of older age. In 2070, the number of people in need of long-term care as defined by the Long-Term Care Insurance Act (German Social Code, Book XI) is expected to total approximately 6.9 million (+38%). This is shown by a variant of the long-term care projection with long-term care rates being kept constant. The long-term care rate is calculated as follows: people in need of long-term care as a proportion of the population, by age and sex. It shows people’s risk of needing long-term care at a specific age.

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