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As of right now when it comes to Michigan football, there are no guarantees.

Jim Harbaugh signed a contract extension this offseason, but it was a substantial pay cut, unless he meets every bonus criteria available. Those bonuses include winning the conference, the College Football Playoff and coach of the year.

With the way the 2-4 2020 campaign ended, there’s little reason to expect the Wolverines will rebound. Yes, they significantly overhauled the coaching staff, adding rising stars to both sides of the ball. But, there are few known commodities. Michigan brought in a solid recruiting class in 2021, but it’s somewhat bereft of defensive playmakers. Will the maize and blue have enough pieces to get the defense back to elite status?

Those are all big questions, and when ESPN’s David M. Hale put together his tiers of college football programs, the Wolverines were far from elite. As a matter of fact, unlike teams such as Penn State, which had a frustrating season in its own right, Michigan was all the way down in Tier 4.

On the flip side of Arizona State is Michigan, a team with an illustrious history that appears to be trending in the wrong direction. Jim Harbaugh’s contract extension represents a tepid endorsement following a 2-4 campaign in 2020 that included a loss to rival Michigan State and a narrow overtime win over lowly Rutgers. Michigan has recruited at a playoff level, but it sure feels like things are getting worse.

The Nittany Lions at least ended the 2020 season on a high note after starting the season 0-5. But there are likely more parallels between Michigan and PSU than is being admitted.

Alas, in order to get any kind of benefit of the doubt, the product on the field will have to prove that things are heading in the right direction after a moribund outing this past year.