Discussion Official 2020 Stock Market Thread

ponyo · Jan 25, 2020

zinfamous said:
That's not why SPaceX isn't public. It isn't public because that industry can't properly do its work and also deal with garbage shareholders demanding that they know better. No one ever would have gone to the moon, or done anything in space, really, if that work was public. This is actually why I'm not convinced that Virgin Galactic will be all that successful.

Exactly. But it's not so much garbage shareholders but rather garbage analysts who couldn't even tie their shoelaces let alone model or value companies setting/expecting unrealistic sales targets, revenues, or growth rates for the company. Then they play their games and downgrade and reduce the price targets and punish the company if they miss by a penny. And you have shortseller leaches and parasites like Jim Chanos paying reporters and the media to make up and spread lies and FUD and trying to kill innocent companies who depend on the capital market to function.

Private companies like SpaceX have private stock and shareholders too. But they don't have shortsellers, and they don't have to answer to stupid garbage analysts who add zero value to the company or its mission. In many ways, Tesla would be better off being private so they wouldn't have to worry about minor quarter to quarter fluctuations and just concentrate on yearly growth targets and its mission. But that time has passed. Chamath is very familiar with what happened to Tesla at the hands of vicious shortsellers and hedge funds. He's going to do his best to control and shield Virgin Galactic so the same thing doesn't happen to SPCE stock. We'll see if he's successful. I'm betting more on Chamath and Branson than I am on Virgin Galactic as a company. Just like in many ways I'm betting on Elon Musk at Tesla and SpaceX. I expect great things from SpaceX this year and the coming years. I think SpaceX will lift up the entire space sector industry and bring up Virgin Galactic with it. At least that's what I'm betting on. People will bet on SPCE because it's the closest public stock to SpaceX.

s0me0nesmind1 · Jan 25, 2020

zinfamous said:
That's not why SPaceX isn't public. It isn't public because that industry can't properly do its work and also deal with garbage shareholders demanding that they know better. No one ever would have gone to the moon, or done anything in space, really, if that work was public. This is actually why I'm not convinced that Virgin Galactic will be all that successful.

I don't buy that. Boeing and Lockheed have a hell of a lot to do with the space industry and they are public?

s0me0nesmind1 · Jan 25, 2020

ponyo said:
Exactly. But it's not so much garbage shareholders but rather garbage analysts who couldn't even tie their shoelaces let alone model or value companies setting/expecting unrealistic sales targets, revenues, or growth rates for the company. Then they play their games and downgrade and reduce the price targets and punish the company if they miss by a penny. And you have shortseller leaches and parasites like Jim Chanos paying reporters and the media to make up and spread lies and FUD and trying to kill innocent companies who depend on the capital market to function.

Private companies like SpaceX have private stock and shareholders too. But they don't have shortsellers, and they don't have to answer to stupid garbage analysts who add zero value to the company or its mission. In many ways, Tesla would be better off being private so they wouldn't have to worry about minor quarter to quarter fluctuations and just concentrate on yearly growth targets and its mission. But that time has passed. Chamath is very familiar with what happened to Tesla at the hands of vicious shortsellers and hedge funds. He's going to do his best to control and shield Virgin Galactic so the same thing doesn't happen to SPCE stock. We'll see if he's successful. I'm betting more on Chamath and Branson than I am on Virgin Galactic as a company. Just like in many ways I'm betting on Elon Musk at Tesla and SpaceX. I expect great things from SpaceX this year and the coming years. I think SpaceX will lift up the entire space sector industry and bring up Virgin Galactic with it. At least that's what I'm betting on. People will bet on SPCE because it's the closest public stock to SpaceX.

Hehe - In my life I've been on a few shareholder calls for kicks - and you're absolutely right that some of the questions they ask are honestly so fucking retarded it's worthy of taking them out back and shooting them in the head for asking such asinine questions.

ponyo · Jan 25, 2020

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/13/this-tech-ipo-has-everyone-talking.html

This article talks about Social Capital Hedosophia IPO which occurred in 2017. It's (SPAC) special purpose acquisition company. Chamath Palihapitiya set up this Soical Capital for the sole purpose to invest in technology company that was not yet public. And Chamath sat on the money he raised until last year when he decided Virgin Galactic was the company he thought he could make money for himself and his investors. So that's why he did the reverse merger IPO with Virgin Galactic to create SPCE. So if you buy SPCE, you're betting on Chamath and his ability to spot a deal. And I like my chances with Chamath. Dude is great speaker and sharp cookie.

FelixDeCat · Jan 26, 2020

zinfamous said:
That's not why SPaceX isn't public. It isn't public because that industry can't properly do its work and also deal with garbage shareholders demanding that they know better. No one ever would have gone to the moon, or done anything in space, really, if that work was public. This is actually why I'm not convinced that Virgin Galactic will be all that successful.

Probably, but its waaaay too soon to pass judgement. First come the rides into space then maybe tourism. Starting around 1980 I have dreamed about hotels or cruise ships in space. Hopefully I live long enough to see that.

But this is going to take a while to come to fruition and shareholders sometimes do make noise in the short term.

I really do want this to work. Im ready to book my cabin on the space cruiser that will orbit the moon.

FelixDeCat · Jan 26, 2020

GOLD going higher.....rocket bombs hit US Embassy compound. Current price $1585.

Could this be the year of $2,000 gold?

And of course, I already sold everything sub $1500. Tempted to buy and ounce or two right now......

zinfamous · Jan 26, 2020

s0me0nesmind1 said:
I don't buy that. Boeing and Lockheed have a hell of a lot to do with the space industry and they are public?

they are basically the biggest government contractors anywhere, so.....

ponyo · Jan 26, 2020

FelixDeCat said:
GOLD going higher.....rocket bombs hit US Embassy compound. Current price $1585.

Could this be the year of $2,000 gold?

And of course, I already sold everything sub $1500. Tempted to buy and ounce or two right now......

I have little bit of gold.

FelixDeCat · Jan 26, 2020

Futures looking kind of ugly ATM. Must be that news of that Chinese virus thingy spreading worldwide.

Thanks Xi JinPing!

dasherHampton · Jan 26, 2020

I have 50 Krugerrands. I inherited them.

They're in a safety deposit box as a sort of armageddon currency, I guess.

ponyo · Jan 27, 2020

Yesterday I wanted to buy puts on FXI this morning. But too late to the party today since I didn't buy Friday. So I'm going to sit on my hand this morning. Not buying this dip and will use any bounce to sell to reduce some risks.

ponyo · Jan 27, 2020

Ok. Changed my mind and bought more SPCE at 15.95. Thinking of selling some lower strike puts on SPCE to collect the premium and buy shares if it drops below strike price.

EDIT: Also sold 6 of the TSLA Jan 31 $800 covered calls for $1 each. As long as TSLA is not over $800 a share this Friday, that's easy $600 total premium I pocket on shares I was going to hold anyway.

ponyo · Jan 27, 2020

Ok. I just had a vision. SPCE is going to $42. So now my plan is to accumulate 5,000 to 10,000 share position in SPCE before that happens. I just sold 10 of the SPCE Feb 21 puts for $0.64 each and collected $640 in premium. If SPCE falls to <$14 before or on Feb 21, I'll be happy to buy 1,000 shares at $14 each.

EDIT: Just sold another 10 of the SPCE Feb 21 puts for $0.55 each. So that's now 2,000 shares purchase commitment at $14. Baby hit me one more time. I'm not scared of coronavirus.

ponyo · Jan 27, 2020

This is very interesting. So apparently there are warrants for SPCE. It trades under symbol SPCE/WS or SPCE+ I guess depending on the broker you use. Warrants are basically leap options. This Virgin Galactic warrant is like 4 year call option. Each warrant gives you the right to buy a share of Virgin Galactic in 2024 for $11.50 each. So I just bought 500 warrants for $6.65 each. I looked at leap options for SPCE but I think warrants are far better way to play if you believe in the long term future of SPCE. I think the warrants are cheap given the 4 year window time frame.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exotic-strategy-playing-virgin-galactic-195209557.html

So instead of 10k straight shares of SPCE, I'm going to use combination of shares and warrants to establish my position.

ponyo · Jan 27, 2020

bought another 1,500 shares of SPCE+ warrants. Now holding 2k shares of SPCE and 2k shares of SPCE+ warrants.

FelixDeCat · Jan 27, 2020

ponyo said:
Ok. I just had a vision. SPCE is going to $42. So now my plan is to accumulate 5,000 to 10,000 share position in SPCE before that happens. I just sold 10 of the SPCE Feb 21 puts for $0.64 each and collected $640 in premium. If SPCE falls to <$14 before or on Feb 21, I'll be happy to buy 1,000 shares at $14 each.

EDIT: Just sold another 10 of the SPCE Feb 21 puts for $0.55 each. So that's now 2,000 shares purchase commitment at $14. Baby hit me one more time. I'm not scared of coronavirus.

I've had visions myself that have come true but they seem so unbelievable. To me they are from God. But you want to make sure that you are not fooling yourself, that can happen too.

ponyo · Jan 29, 2020

TSLA reports Q4 earnings after the close today. Best chart I've seen of TSLA. Love it.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1217015635021971456

FelixDeCat · Jan 29, 2020

Looks like SPCE will consolidate prior to earnings. $15?

Tempted to buy 100 shares at that price.

FelixDeCat · Jan 29, 2020

Looks like the market is buying Tesla no matter the price or performance. Now $625.

ponyo · Jan 29, 2020

FelixDeCat said:
Looks like the market is buying Tesla no matter the price or performance. Now $625.

jpiniero · Jan 30, 2020

Fed rate cut odds have jumped significantly. Currently forecasting a cut by Summer and perhaps a second one by the end of the year.

ponyo · Jan 30, 2020

I closed out my 6 contracts of TSLA Jan 31 $800 covered calls. Post earnings IV crush dropped the price down to $0.04 on the options. I could let it expire completely worthless tomorrow, I think 96% gain on those options is good enough. No need to be a pig and try to get the remaining 4% and have some crazy short squeeze happen on TSLA and have my shares called away at $800. I also bought to close out 4 contracts of TSLA Feb 7 $750 calls that's expiring next week for $2.74. Again the same reason. I sold the covered calls in the $7-8 range. No need to be greedy and have face ripping short squeeze in TSLA happen next week and risk getting my shares called away at $750.

Not going to do any other trading today. I'm going to enjoy rest of the day and take the wife on a date.

ponyo · Jan 31, 2020

Elon Musk released EDM solo on SoundCloud. It's titled "Don’t Doubt ur Vibe." He also changed his Twitter handle to say:
E.D.M
Born 69 days after 4/20

haha. I love this man. Such a legend! TSLA going to $694.20 next!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1223128794396938241

FelixDeCat · Jan 31, 2020

Good idea. TSLA has been the stock of the year so far. But odds are for a small pullback in all stocks.

Also....

Omg the sky is falling! Panic Sell!

Also...

Bought a 2018 gold 1oz Kangaroo for $1625.

That makes one.

ponyo · Jan 31, 2020

FelixDeCat said:
Good idea. TSLA has been the stock of the year so far. But odds are for a small pullback in all stocks.

Also....

Omg the sky is falling! Panic Sell!

Also...

Bought a 2018 gold 1oz Kangaroo for $1625.

That makes one.

If you like gold coins, I have a bunch I can sell to you for pretty close to spot.

Discussion ***Official*** 2020 Stock Market Thread

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Discussion Official 2020 Stock Market Thread