The 2024 Swing States: Why Michigan Could Sway the Presidential Election

Voters in November will choose the next president of the United States, with the end result expected to be either a second term for President Joe Biden or a return to the White House for former President Donald Trump. Every vote matters, but the electoral results in a handful of key swing states will play major roles in determining the ultimate outcome.

What exactly is a swing state? There’s a literal by-the-book – or dictionary – definition: “A U.S. state in which Republican and Democratic candidates have similar levels of support and which is considered to play a key role in the outcome of presidential elections.”

Yet there are still nuances at play, and though the group of swing states each presidential cycle is often similar, variations can occur due to factors like changing demographics, voter turnout and other circumstances. Georgia, for example, is now a swing state on the heels of Biden's win there in 2020, in large part due to the support of Black voters. He was the first Democratic presidential candidate to take Georgia in almost three decades.

For its part, Michigan had been a reliably blue Midwestern state in recent decades after voting exclusively Republican in the 1970s and 1980s. But similar to Wisconsin, it became a major battleground after Trump won there by less than 11,000 votes in 2016. Biden notched a victory there over Trump in 2020, though by a wider margin.

Biden including Michigan on his post-State of the Union barnstorming slate in early March highlights its importance in the 2024 contest, while Trump held a rally there in February ahead of the state’s GOP primary and returned with a stop in Grand Rapids on April 2 to deliver remarks focused on the southern border.

The Great Lakes State, which was No. 42 in the most recent Best States rankings from U.S. News, holds 15 electoral votes, placing it in the top 10 among all U.S. states and also pointing to the crucial role it could play in the race for the White House.

Here’s everything you need to know about Michigan as a 2024 battleground.

Why Michigan Is Important in the Presidential Race

U.S. News in January handicapped Michigan as a “toss-up” in the 2024 presidential election, even though the Democratic candidate has prevailed in all but one contest there since 1992. The winner in Michigan also has gone on to win the White House in nine of the last 12 presidential elections.

Biden has focused on the state with recent trips as he seeks to hold tight to the “blue wall” of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania that helped him defeat Trump four years ago. But Michigan, where the Biden reelection campaign plans to open more than 15 field offices, could prove to be more challenging for Biden to win again amid criticism of the administration’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war in places like Dearborn – a Detroit suburb with the nation’s highest concentration of Arab Americans, according to The Associated Press – and among younger voters. Biden won the Michigan Democratic primary in February but saw 13% of voters go with an “uncommitted” option.

While Trump has had to focus on his various legal battles recently, he also has traveled to Michigan multiple times in recent months, including a September stop where he criticized Biden’s push for electric cars during remarks to auto workers near Detroit. And after his April 2 trip to Grand Rapids, Trump returned to Michigan with a visit to Freeland on May 1.

How Michigan Voted in Past Presidential Elections

Biden carried Michigan in 2020 by close to 3 percentage points. Trump won it in 2016 by a very small margin.

Key Voter Groups in Michigan

Nearly three-quarters (74%) of Michiganders are white, but the state is also home to a sizable Black population (14.1%). The next-largest group by race or ethnicity is the Hispanic population, which comprises 5.7%. Michigan also has experienced slow population growth over the years – having had 21 Electoral College votes in the 1970s and now standing at 15, after losing one more vote from 2020 to 2024.

As in Wisconsin, a key group for both candidates in Michigan is white working-class voters. And with auto manufacturing a major player in the state’s economy – Michigan is home to General Motors and Ford, along with the North American headquarters of Stellantis – the union vote will be one to watch.

In 2023, union members accounted for 12.8% of wage and salary workers in the state, which was above the national mark of 10%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Biden earned an endorsement from the United Auto Workers in January and became the first sitting president to walk a picket line last year in Michigan, though Trump is hoping to cut into his competitor’s union backing. Both candidates have courted support from the Teamsters union.

Also important are Black voters – whom Biden may need to shore up support from in the state – and Michigan’s comparatively sizable Arab American population, given discontent over how Biden has handled Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza. Michigan additionally saw strong turnout in the 2022 midterms by young voters, whom Democrats are hoping will continue to turn their way on Election Day despite displeasure with Biden about the war in Gaza and a potential ban of the popular TikTok app.

The independent vote also will be important in Michigan, as it will be across the country for both Biden and Trump. Independents helped Trump win the state in 2016, and helped Biden retake it in 2020.

Key Issues to Voters in Michigan

A February survey from Emerson College Polling and The Hill showed the economy was the top issue for close to a third (31%) of Michigan voters. That issue was followed by immigration (13%), threats to democracy (12%), health care (10%), housing affordability (8%), education (7%), crime (7%) and abortion access (5%).

Results from another survey – conducted in November and released in December by the Detroit Regional Chamber and Glengariff Group, Inc. – echoed concerns about the economy, with inflation and the cost of goods being “top-of-mind concerns for Michigan voters.”

How the Candidates Have Addressed Issues Key to Michigan

The economy: In his State of the Union address, Biden spoke of America’s “comeback” – one that he said includes “building an economy from the middle out and the bottom up, not the top down.”

“I inherited an economy that was on the brink,” he said, also touting hundreds of thousands of new manufacturing jobs created and calling America “the manufacturing capital of the world.” “Now our economy is the envy of the world.”

Trump has indicated on his social media platform that recent stock market gains should be credited to him, and that “EVERYTHING ELSE IS TERRIBLE.”

Immigration: Biden recently got more aggressive in his messaging about immigration, which has become a bigger threat to his reelection prospects. The president noted in the State of the Union efforts to pass a bipartisan immigration reform bill, which was later torpedoed in Congress amid opposition from Trump. But Biden was also criticized by progressives and immigration advocates for using the term “illegal” in a reference to the alleged killer of Georgia nursing student Laken Riley.

Trump has long made immigration a big part of his platform, recently saying migrants are “poisoning the blood of our country,” a remark that Biden called out in his address to Congress. The former president also has vowed to launch a massive deportation effort if reelected.

“The biggest threat to your union is millions of people coming across the border,” Trump said during his February rally in Michigan, after reportedly mentioning both the Teamsters and UAW. “You’re not going to have your jobs anymore.”

During his April 2 remarks in Grand Rapids, the former president used the word "animals" to refer to immigrants in the U.S. illegally and suspected of committing crimes, and accused Biden of creating a "border bloodbath." He also reportedly referenced the recent fatal shooting of Ruby Garcia, 25, in the Grand Rapids area. Brandon Ortiz-Vite, who was in a relationship with Garcia, was charged in her death. Ortiz-Vite was deported to Mexico in 2020 but later reentered the U.S. illegally, CBS reported.

Trump in Michigan said he'd spoken with Garcia's family – a claim refuted by Garcia's sister.

Threats to democracy: Biden has made threats to democracy a focus of his campaign, referencing the Jan. 6 insurrection attempt in 2021 during his State of the Union address and saying “democracy must be defended.”

Trump has repeated false claims that the 2020 election was stolen from him. In February, he said he had once told another country’s leader that he’d encourage Russia to do “whatever the hell they want” to a NATO member country who did not meet the alliance’s defense spending guidelines.

Health care: Biden in the State of the Union touted efforts to lower the cost of prescription drugs and championed the Affordable Care Act, known as Obamacare, as “still a very big deal.” “Over 100 million of you can no longer be denied health insurance because of a preexisting condition,” he said.

During Trump’s presidency, congressional Republicans unsuccessfully tried to repeal Obamacare. In November, Trump said on social media that he wants to “replace” it.

“Obamacare Sucks!!!” he wrote.

The Latest Polling

A CBS News/YouGov poll released in late April found Biden with a 51% to 49% head-to-head matchup advantage over Trump in Michigan. With other candidates such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr. included, the president’s lead changed to 45% to 43%.

Emerson College’s February survey found Trump leading Biden 46%-44%, while 10% of respondents were undecided. The president also had a 38% job approval rating.

Michigan’s independent voters were even more supportive of Trump, with a margin of 43% to 37%. Trump had a 12-point lead among male voters in the state, while Biden had a 5-point lead among women voters.

In March, Wall Street Journal polling found Trump with a 2-point lead over Biden in a race with third-party and independent candidates included. He held a 3-point lead in a head-to-head matchup.