Monthly Outlook

The colder but generally calmer weather may continue until the middle of next week, with a more northerly flow prevailing. The second half of next week may see more changeable conditions and temperatures could rise towards the weekend.

The beginning of May could be generally drier, calmer and warmer, with a high pressure influence north-east of the UK reaching Fennoscandia still the more likely scenario, but there is a lot of uncertainty.

High pressure will remain over the United Kingdom over the weekend, bringing drier and calmer conditions to many of us, except for northern and north-eastern Scotland and eastern parts of England, where it will be a little more changeable with some showers and windier conditions.

Temperatures will fall back below average over the weekend and early next week, except in Scotland and Northern Ireland. A few chilly nights are still likely though.

Next week, high pressure is likely to shift west and north-west of Scotland at first and move towards Iceland and Greenland later in the week, resulting in an overall more northerly flow with some changeable weather at times and generally cooler weather continuing.

However, drier, calmer and slightly warmer conditions are expected to continue across much of Scotland and Northern Ireland early next week. Winds are expected to die down in most parts of the UK.

During the second half of next week, there is a chance that the high pressure will gradually retreat or be pushed back towards the Azores. This means that a westerly North Atlantic flow is possible by the end of next week, with wetter and windier conditions and gradually rising temperatures.

The other scenario is for a more blocked pattern, allowing a cooler north-westerly or northerly flow to persist for longer, with embedded or surrounding areas of low pressure and changeable conditions at times. However, the uncertainty about this remains relatively high.

Confidence in the forecasts for late April and early May continues to decline as increasingly uncertain weather patterns develop.

The global models are predicting a build-up and reformation of high pressure to the north or north-east of the UK and a trough over southern and central Europe, while the low pressure over central Europe could extend to at least parts of southern England.

However, the start to this week could be wetter and windier in view of the previous week's pattern with a more westerly or north-westerly Atlantic flow. Temperatures are likely to be around average at first, with calmer and drier conditions expected in the north and north-west, while the south could become somewhat wetter and windier.

Temperatures may rise above average later.

According to the global weather models, the high pressure stays north of the UK and extends to Scandinavia and even north-west Russia, while the low pressure may mainly affect the southern parts of the UK. Temperatures will rise.

Higher winds and wetter conditions are expected, especially in the southern parts of the country, though Scotland and Northern Ireland could remain drier.

There is also a chance that conditions will calm overall, and temperatures will continue to rise as the area of high pressure over Scandinavia continues to establish itself, bringing with it a warm and dry easterly flow.

However, there remains some risk of a wetter westerly or even north-westerly flow bringing cooler conditions at times. Confidence remains low.

We will see which trend will continue into mid- to late May. Some of the factors mentioned in the previous reports, such as the influence of the late state of the stratospheric polar vortex and the upcoming final stratospheric warming and some other factors, are still contradictory.