Joe Biden won in Arizona, flipping a state Donald Trump won in 2016.

Taking Biden at face value about Michigan and Wisconsin — where, for what it's worth (not that much), the exit poll data looks pretty good for him and he came in with a significant polling lead — here's where the map goes: If Biden wins those two, plus Maine, Nevada and Arizona, but nothing else, he's at 269 electoral votes. Which means he's a Nebraska-02 (where he's currently leading) away from hitting 270 on the number, WITHOUT Pennsylvania and Maine's 2nd District.

Arizona has only been called by Fox as well. Long day or two ahead.

Alex's sources are likely right, and it's going to be a long wait. Now that California is in Biden's column, he's at 209 electoral votes, to Trump's 119. Let's assume Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas are going to Trump. Give him Hawaii, Biden needs to find 58 electoral votes somewhere — some combination of Minnesota (10), Arizona (11), Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10), Pennsylvania (20), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), Maine (3), ME-02 (1), NE-02 (1), Georgia (16). He can lose Georgia, but then he needs to win EVERYTHING ELSE if he also lost Pennsylvania.

Nancy Charlie Laura One point is even if Biden wins AZ he still needs to win every one of the blue wall states. It gives them far less flexibility than they'd hoped had they taken NC.

Steven Agree -- winning Arizona opens the path to victory for Biden. If Biden wins AZ and runs the table in the Rust Belt -- WI/MI/PA -- he wins. NC won't matter.

Trump campaign officials tells me they're nervous about AZ, but have seen their expectations met or surpassed in terms of day-of GOP turnout so far and are holding out hope for the same in AZ. One campaign adviser I spoke with cited exit polls that showed the economy may be the lead issue for AZ voters – men and women included

Steven Yup, Arizona is the swing state that may break for Biden and change the map.

So far, the night has gone exactly how President Trump needed it to go to have a chance to win a second term. But that might end in Arizona. If Joe Biden's current 9-point lead holds up, it gives Biden a little bit of breathing room, which he hasn't gotten in the results thus far.

If Maricopa goes for Biden, that's going to require an even bigger rural turnout for Trump.

Maricopa County has voted Republican in every election since 1948; with 77% of estimated votes reported, Biden is up 54-45.

Trump only narrowly won Maricopa in 2016. This year, his prospects have faded amid Latino population growth and the rising tide of moderate, white, college-educated suburbanites.

Those Arizona numbers show Biden ahead in Maricopa County, home to more than 60 percent of the state's voters.

Big dump of Arizona votes...69% now in

Laura Charlie Sabrina The question for me is does it point to a lack of investment on the part of the Biden campaign directly to Latinos? But the anti-immigration policies (and Trump’s warnings of socialism) and general rhetoric around immigrants obviously play very different in Arizona, Nevada and Texas than they do in Florida.

In Arizona, it doesn't mean Biden can't win with a white coalition as well, but recent polling in Arizona, including final NYT/Siena poll did not show Trump breaking through his 2016 numbers with Latinos in the state.

Observation of Miami-Dade and Biden’s underperformance there compared with Clinton is it’s difficult at the moment to extrapolate what this means for Latino voters in states like Nevada, Arizona and Texas. Could be a warning sign, but also could be unique to Trump’s efforts in Fla, with Cuban, Venezuelan and Puerto Rican voters. 

Laura what I found most fascinating about your reporting from Arizona--other than the grassroots game plan to woo Latino voters--were the elderly white Republicans defecting from Trump.

Charlie That's right it's a genuine battleground and voters in the state are not used to it. Many complained about all the ads; Phoenix was the top media market for Biden in the final six weeks of the election. Democrats and Republicans in Arizona both say Trump accelerated Arizona turning purple. Add a growing Latino population, shifting attitudes among white suburban voters and migration from California and you have a new battleground.

Another key Sun Belt state tonight is Arizona. Laura You've spent alot of time there and written some super smart stories about it. Why is that suddenly in play for Joe Biden? I mean, that's a state that's only voted once for a Dem nominee (Clinton in 96) since 1952.

Good evening from the great Midwest. I’m just dying to know whether Team Biden can flip one of the tougher states on their map like AZ, NC or GA. The Biden campaign seems least confident about Florida but seemed to feel pretty good about reclaiming the Blue Wall. I’m also keeping an eye on Wisconsin, a battleground close to my heart (and to my home). Democrats there are feeling good because they ran up such a strong lead in early voting.

Happy Election Day! No surprise, I'm watching the battle for Senate control. Republicans go into the night with a 53-47 majority. There are a huge number of potentially competitive races. The likeliest flip for Republicans is Alabama. The likeliest flips for Democrats are Colorado and Arizona, followed by tight races in Maine, North Carolina and Iowa. If Democrats can flip two of those three, they'll likely win back the majority six years after losing it. There are also races in Montana, South Carolina, Kansas, Alaska and Texas that could flip if Democrats are having a REALLY good night. And if Republicans are having a really strong night, Michigan is their next best opportunity. The possibilities are a little dizzying.

But one thing to keep a close eye on: Georgia. Two races in that state, and one is almost certain to head to a January 5 runoff, while the other is going to be extremely close and could potentially also go to a runoff. So the majority could be won tonight. Or... it could be won in January.

Good evening from DC! I’m watching Arizona tonight. (I just returned from a quick trip to the state.) A Democratic presidential candidate hasn’t won there since Bill Clinton in 1996 and tonight its genuinely in play for Joe Biden. Aware of the stakes, President Trump and VP Pence made swings through the state in the final week while Biden only visited the state once in the general election. We could also know the result tonight and if Biden flips that state, Trump’s road to 270 becomes a lot harder. Keep your eyes on Maricopa County. I’ll also be keeping an eye on where key voting blocs — Black voters, Latinos, white women — land.