Both Russia and Ukraine in recent days have discussed the subject of peace negotiations over the 10-month-old war in Ukraine.
First, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Sunday in an interview with a Russian state TV outlet that he is "prepared to negotiate some acceptable outcomes with all the participants of this process." He added that "it's not us who refuse talks, it's them."
On Monday, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba spoke with the Associated Press about hopes of holding a "peace summit" in February, with the goal of ending Russia's ongoing attacks on his country. "Every war ends in a diplomatic way," he said. "Every war ends as a result of the actions taken on the battlefield and at the negotiating table."
However, given statements made by Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky about the conditions necessary for them to accept a peace deal, the prospect of the war ending soon seems unlikely.
Russia's Demands
While the Kremlin may be opening the door for negotiations, the assaults on Ukraine haven't relented. Putin's Sunday interview came as his forces unleashed attacks on the cities of Kramatorsk and Avdiivka, and a countrywide air raid alert in Ukraine was sounded twice during the day.
On Tuesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov went into more detail about the conditions Russia considers necessary for peace. Ukraine must surrender or the war will continue, he said.
Denazification and Demilitarization
Speaking with the government news agency Tass, Lavrov repeated an unproven claim Russia has made since the beginning of its invasion: that part of its war rationale is to fight against a proliferation of neo-Nazism in Ukraine. He again called for the vague conditions of "denazification and demilitarization."
Ukraine Must Give Up Territories Russia Annexed
Perhaps the main peace condition for Russia is holding control over four regions—Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk—that Putin formally annexed in September. The annexation came even though Russia lacked full control over the territories, and the Russian military has since lost control of some parts of the regions.
"Our proposals for the demilitarization and de-Nazification of the territories controlled by the [Ukrainian] regime, the elimination of threats to Russia's security emanating from there, including our new lands, are well known to the enemy," Lavrov told Tass when discussing possible peace negotiations.
He continued, "The point is simple: Fulfill them for your own good. Otherwise, the issue will be decided by the Russian army."
Ukraine's Demands
When Kuleba spoke with the AP about a possible peace summit, he suggested that U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres could mediate the proceedings. But he also said Russia would be invited only if it is facing war crimes prosecution in an international court, which all but guarantees the Kremlin will not participate in any such summit.
Russia Withdraws All Forces From Ukraine
As a major condition for peace, Zelensky has called on Putin to send his troops back home. Speaking to leaders from the Group of Seven nations earlier this month, Zelensky said peace would start with Putin withdrawing troops from Ukraine.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded by telling reporters that Zelensky's conditions would result only in "a continuation of hostilities."
Lawrence Reardon, a professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire, told Newsweek that Zelensky has been taking steps to shore up support for a Russian withdrawal.
"President Zelensky has sought to consolidate NATO material and moral support to achieve Ukraine's goal of expelling all Russian occupiers from Ukrainian soil," Reardon said.
Russia Faces Punishment
"A crime has been committed against Ukraine, and we demand punishment," Zelensky said in a September video message played at the U.N. General Assembly in New York.
The Ukrainian leader has called multiple times for Russia to face some form of punishment for the war, through further sanctions and with the U.N. stripping Moscow of its powerful role as a permanent Security Council member.
Ukrainian Security
Zelensky has also spoken about security guarantees for Ukraine as a condition for peace, as well as getting the world to unite in preventing Russia from future armed aggression.
Not Giving Up Territory
Zelensky's repeated demands for the restoration of Ukraine's territorial integrity could be the biggest sticking point in any negotiations. Putin wants to keep the regions he's annexed, but Zelensky insists those territories must remain part of Ukraine.
Last week, Zelensky visited the United States, where he met with President Joe Biden and addressed Congress. During the trip, he spoke of a "just peace," which he said would include "no compromises as to the sovereignty, freedom and territorial integrity of my country" and "payback for all the damages inflicted by Russian aggression."
Reardon said, "President Biden no doubt will continue to rally NATO to support the Ukraine war effort," which could allow Zelensky more time to fight on and give him more negotiating leverage.
Mark N. Katz, a professor of government and politics at George Mason University, told Newsweek that Putin is unlikely to agree to Zelensky's conditions.
"Putin may say he's interested in negotiating, but I don't think that he's willing to withdraw troops or renounce the annexations of Ukrainian territory even that he has lost or never gained," Katz said. "His main goal in saying he is ready to negotiate is to get the U.S. and NATO to cut back or stop aiding Ukraine—at which point he hopes to at minimum keep the territory he has already claimed. And that might be just his starting point. If the West cuts off aid to Ukraine, is it really going to start it back up if Putin thinks he can successively seize small bits of territory from an isolated Ukraine? And if he succeeds at that, why won't he try for more?"
Zelensky has seemingly dropped at least one demand he previously said had to be implemented before peace talks would resume: Putin's leaving the presidency.
The Kyiv Post said in November that "in contrast to previous announcements," Zelensky's talks of peace negotiations at that time omitted "the requirement that Putin must be removed from office before such discussions can occur."
Newsweek reached out to Ukraine's Foreign Ministry and the Kremlin for comment.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
Jon Jackson is an Associate Editor at Newsweek based in New York. His focus is on reporting on the Ukraine ... Read more
To read how Newsweek uses AI as a newsroom tool, Click here.
