The first installment of what I hope will be a continuing "Yes, No, Maybe So" slate of predictions, where I lay out my wide pool of contenders and weigh each of their pros and cons. If this goes over well enough, I'd love to do additional installments for the other major categories, and a more abbreviated version for the technical categories.

I'm sure I'm leaving out some viable contenders, but these are the 30 titles that stood out to me the most while surveying the field:

BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR

THE ACTOR (Neon)
Duke Johnson, Ken Kao, Abigail Spencer and Paul Young
Logline: When New York actor Paul Cole is beaten and left for dead in 1950s Ohio, he loses his memory and finds himself stranded in a mysterious small town where he struggles to get back home and reclaim what he's lost.
Yes: An intriguing collection of talent with an intriguing story. Ryan Gosling was attached to this project for a while before the role passed onto André Holland, a supremely underrated actor who feels primed for his big moment. A period piece about memory and performance could resonate strongly with Academy voters.
No: Duke Johnson's past work is all stop-motion animation;his only feature length credit was co-directing Anomalisa. A promising debut to be sure, but how does his skillset translate to live-action? How weird will this be? Are we going to get a trailer and discover that this is all performed with puppets?
Maybe So: Neon acquired this picture a while ago (when Gosling was still attached). They'll be a powerful campaign patron should it take off at the fests. And besides, this sounds like exactly the sort of project that hangs under the radar until it surprises big time.

THE APPRENTICE (No Distributor)
Amy Baer, Daniel Bekerman, Jacob Jarek, Producers
Logline: The story of how a young Donald Trump started his real estate business in New York during the 1970s and '80s.
Yes: Well, it will certainly drum up attention. Trying to dramatize the most notorious figure in modern America is a tall order, but honing in on his tutelage under Roy Cohn's dark arts is probably the only conceivable angle you could take that doesn't just regurgitate things everyone has already lived through. There's chatter that it might premiere at Cannes, which could be an ideal launching pad.
No: The subject is about as polarizing as it gets, to put it mildly, and flat out revolting to most voters in Hollywood. There is zero chance this will be a flattering portrait of Trump, but the mere association might be too off-putting.
Maybe So: This feels ludicrous to say, but the election could very well decide this movie's awards prospects. If Trump is a vanquished foe after November, then The Apprentice could actually be boosted as a way of rubbing salt in his wounds. If he regains power, then it could become just too painful for the Academy to stomach.

BIRD (A24)
Lee Groombridge, Juliette Howell and Tessa Ross
Logline: The plot is currently unknown.
Yes: Starring two of the hottest actors around with Keoghan and Rogowski, and Andrea Arnold's reputation has been steadily building over the last decade. Seems primed for a festival run where it could make a huge splash.
No: We know next to nothing about it, other than some paparazzi set photos that suggest a youth culture milieu. Andrea Arnold may have a Short Film Oscar already, but this would have to be a big level up in appeal to do much better than her previous feature length work. It could prove to be just another respected work that's held at arm's length rather than a proper breakout.
Maybe So: Considering the promising trend of more and more women filmmakers finally getting their due, Arnold does stand out as one of the big great hopes of continuing that trend this year.

BLITZ (Apple Original Films)
Lee Groombridge, Juliette Howell and Tessa Ross
Logline: Follows the stories of a group of Londoners during the events of the British capital bombing in World War II.
Yes: A WWII epic from a filmmaker who has claimed Oscar's biggest prize before. Tremendous cast and a potentially passionate BAFTA constituency. This has all the makings of an early frontrunner on paper.
No: "Early frontrunner on paper" is often a curse. McQueen hit with 12 Years a Slave, but Widows was completely ignored.
Maybe So: With Apple behind this (and presuming that a major studio collaborates with them to provide a wide theatrical run), Blitz is coming into the season from a position of strength.

THE BRUTALIST (Focus Features)
Nick Gordon, D.J. Gugenheim, Andrew Lauren, Producers
Logline: When visionary architect László Toth and his wife Erzsébet flee post-war Europe in 1947 to rebuild their legacy and witness the birth of modern America, their lives are changed forever by a mysterious and wealthy client.
Yes: An ambitious premise from a very ambitious filmmaker, imagining an artist placed in history out of whole cloth. That's the sort of conceit that gave us Tár. Interestingly, the architect character appears to be named after a historical madman who desecrated one of Michelangelo's works while claiming he was Jesus Christ. The high art milieu could give it some prestige even if it's not based on a real person.
No: Corbet is a very idiosyncratic filmmaker whose most recent film, Vox Lux, was tremendously polarizing. Virtually the entire cast had a changeover due to Covid delays; will the new ensemble slot into these characters or jarringly feel like the B team?
Maybe So: This project weathered a lot of setbacks before finally coming to fruition. If the labor of love shines through, the reception may finally match Corbet's high aspirations.

A COMPLETE UNKNOWN (Searchlight Pictures)
Fred Berger, Bob Bookman, Alan Gasmer, Producers
Logline: A young Bob Dylan shakes up the folk music scene when he plugs in his electric guitar at the Newport Folk Festival in 1965.
Yes: A big glitzy biopic of an icon, smartly focusing on an inflection point in his career instead of trying to cover the whole arc. Starring Chalamet just after he's solidified himself as a bankable movie star. Mangold showed great utility in this genre with Walk the Line.
No: It's only shooting now after Covid delays. Is it even possible for this to come out this calendar year? Even if they rush, it's going to be tight. This might be a conversation best saved for 2025.
Maybe So: If Mangold manages to crank this out in time for a holiday release, it could be Searchlight's priority for awards season.

CONCLAVE (Focus Features)
Alice Dawson, Robert Harris, Juliette Howell, Producers
Logline: Cardinal Lawrence is tasked with leading one of the world's most secretive and ancient events, selecting a new Pope, where he finds himself at the center of a conspiracy that could shake the very foundation of The Church.
Yes: Berger's follow-up to All Quiet on the Western Front, which did exceedingly well at the 2023 Oscars. Based on a Robert Harris novel that The Guardian praised as "unputdownable," it has all the makings of a salacious procedural with the trimmings of grandeur. "Ace actors scheming in backrooms with high stakes" is the kind of entertainment we got in droves back in the 1990s. That could be refreshing.
No: European directors who break out with a native film often stumble when they make the transition to English-language pictures. Do Vatican machinations still interest enough people? It could prove too pulpy to be taken that seriously.
Maybe So: Focus Features notably made an early announcement that this would be a November release, indicating a high degree of confidence. They might already well know this will be their prized pony of the year.

DÌDI (Focus Features)
Valerie Bush, Carlos López Estrada, Josh Peters and Sean Wang
Logline: An impressionable 13-year-old Taiwanese American boy learns what his family can't teach him: how to skate, how to flirt, and how to love your mom.
Yes: Snagged both the coveted audience and jury prizes at Sundance this year, an early signpost for a strong Oscar run in years past.
No: Many films that won big at Sundance didn't go on to make much noise, and while Dìdi's reviews have been very good, it wasn't a sensation like CODA, Minari or Past Lives. Child-centered stories face some obstacles with appealing to the Academy.
Maybe So: If none of Focus Features' other prospects pan out, then they'll go all-in on this acquisition.

DUNE: PART TWO (Warner Bros.)
Cale Boyter, Tanya Lapointe, Patrick McCormick, Producers
Logline: Paul Atreides unites with Chani and the Fremen while seeking revenge against the conspirators who destroyed his family.
Yes: Beaucoup bucks at the box-office and rave reviews. Consensus is that it's a major achievement, and a marked improvement upon the first installment's comparatively measured reception, and Part One racked up a ton of hardware nonetheless.
No: Early release date. Science-fiction bias. The Academy have a longstanding aversion to sequels, and it's generally understood that this will be a middle chapter: will voters prefer to keep their powder dry for the seemingly inevitable Dune: Messiah?
Maybe So: Its nomination is the only sure bet we've got this early in the year. If no consensus contender emerges while this movie's popularity endures, things could get spicy.

EMMANUELLE (Neon)
Reginald de Guillebon, Marion Delord and Audrey Diwan
Logline: Follows a woman and the series of erotic fantasies that she entertains.
Yes: Audrey Diwan impressed with Happening just a few years ago, and she has a savvy patron in Neon this time out. The Academy has gotten more international, and European talent could find a lot of openings in this post-strike year.
No: A film comprised of erotic vignettes doesn't exactly scream crossover potential. Even if it hits critically it could be too niche, too French to resonate beyond the International category.
Maybe So: Neon's English-language prospects this year also have quirky conceits. If this emerges as their most approachable title by default, their prioritization could make all the difference.

THE END (Neon)
Joshua Oppenheimer and Signe Byrge Sørensen
Logline: A Golden Age-style musical about the last human family.
Yes: The conceit is ambitious and eye-catching, and it has a very impressive cast. Joshua Oppenheimer is widely revered for his documentarian work in Indonesian, and his narrative debut will arrive with a lot of curiosity.
No: The conceit may be ambitious and eye-catching, but it's also bizarre. This is a musical and the film's composer, Josh Schmidt, has mostly only done underground theatre. Tilda Swinton's involvement is a huge endorsement of quality potential, but the projects she chooses are often too niche for awards traction.
Maybe So: Recent Academy choices indicate increasing open mindedness about outré fare. For whatever it's worth, Josh Schmidt's music samples are quite beautiful. This early out, it really comes down to whether you trust in Oppenheimer's talent. If it makes a splash at the fests, anything's possible.

THE FIRE INSIDE (Amazon MGM Studios)
Michael De Luca, Elishia Holmes and Barry Jenkins
Logline: The story of Claressa 'T-Rex' Shields, a boxer from Flint, Michigan who trained to become the first woman in her country's history to win an Olympic gold medal in the sport.
Yes: Barry Jenkins wrote and is producing this sports story, which is a huge plus in the prestige department. Marks the directorial debut of Rachel Morrison, a widely respected cinematographer who broke the glass ceiling in that Oscar category. Boxing pictures have historically done very well at the Academy.
No: Films written by a beloved filmmaker but not directed by them haven't had a glowing track record. The expected August release date also indicates that this might be more of a commercial play. Also... "Flint Strong" was a much better title.
Maybe So: If it's a critical hit, the inspirational uplift can help it stand out amidst a field of dour contenders.

GLADIATOR II (Paramount Pictures)
Lucy Fisher, David Franzoni, Ridley Scott and Douglas Wick
Logline: Follows Lucius, the son of Maximus' love Lucilla, after Maximus' death.
Yes: The follow-up to an enduringly popular best picture winner starring one of the hottest actors on the market. In an awkward year that's still playing catchup after the strikes, it will stand out as a contender that's both populist and prestigious.
No: The Academy normally doesn't go for sequels, and this year's slate is already full of them. Ridley Scott's track record has been so spotty lately that the reception is a total crapshoot to predict. The reportedly gargantuan budget will also make it challenging for this to break even at the box office.
Maybe So: Ridley Scott's track record was going through an even rougher patch in the years leading up to The Martian, and that film racked up 7 nominations. Bloated budget or not, this could potentially make a ton of money, and that would go a long way in a year defined by box office anxiety. And last year's Napoleon still got a respectable slew of nods even with an anemic reaction.

FURIOSA: A MAD MAX SAGA (Warner Bros.)
George Miller and Doug Mitchell
Logline: The origin story of renegade warrior Furiosa before her encounter and teamup with Mad Max.
Yes: Miller's return to the Mad Max world after Fury Road dazzled nearly a decade ago. Starring one of the hottest stars around. Furiosa the character has grown more and more iconic over recent years.
No: Following up a beloved predecessor is a double-edged sword, and it is very difficult to recapture lightning in a bottle. What's worse, it's a prequel. Even if it absolutely rocks, there could be an air of "been there, done that already." And having to weather comparisons will be tough.
Maybe So: After all the challenges Fury Road faced, doubt George Miller at your own peril.

HARD TRUTHS (Bleecker Street Media)
Georgina Lowe
Logline: Ongoing exploration of the contemporary world with a tragicomic study of human strengths and weaknesses.
Yes: One of Britain's most beloved filmmakers returns after an extended break and reunites with the star of his biggest Oscars breakout. Leigh's track record is platinum, and a well-acted humanist drama could highly resonate in a season full of spectacles.
No: It could be deflected as "too small." Bleecker Street doesn't have an encouraging record of garnering big nods. Leigh is a legend but his last film, Peterloo, was viewed as something of a misfire. Has it been too long since he reasserted his reputation?
Maybe So: Given how infrequently Leigh works nowadays, this could be his last film, adding some sentiment. The BAFTA crowd could give it a big boost.

JAY KELLY (Netflix)
Noah Baumbach, David Heyman and Amy Pascal
Logline: Plot details are being kept under wraps.
Yes: The star wattage is blinding and Baumbach's awards breakthrough with Marriage Story has only been bolstered since by Barbie. This could very well be Netflix's primary play this year.
No: We have no idea what it's about. There hasn't even been an official title announcement yet; "Jay Kelly" is just a rumor at this point. Baumbach's brand broke through when he tackled something as emotionally resonant as divorce, but the majority of his filmography has been prickly and unconcerned with being liked. The pedigree is there, but the story could be a dealbreaker.
Maybe So: We've gotten one hint about the tone of the project from Netflix's Scott Stuber, who described it as "kind of Jerry Maguire-esque, for lack of a better analogy, but a really great life-affirming movie." If that bears out with the finished product, then this could be Baumbach's most viable awards contender yet.

JOKER: FOLIE À DEUX (Warner Bros.)
Joseph Garner, Todd Phillips and Emma Tillinger Koskoff
Logline: Sequel to the film "Joker" from 2019.
Yes: Sequel to a massive hit that performed extremely well in a competitive Oscars year. The genre changeup also might help it evade the "been there, done that" fatigue. And don't forget: Gaga!
No: The first Joker was hugely polarizing, and its detractors will have their knives out for this entry. The conceit of a comic book film played straight as a grim drama won't be fresh anymore. Part of the original's appeal was that it was pitched as a standalone; maybe the Academy will grow disinterested now that this venture is looking more and more like a franchise.
Maybe So: It will likely make a ton of money. Even if it proves as polarizing as the first, it might also be just as popular.

JUROR #2 (Warner Bros.)
Clint Eastwood, Adam Goodman, Jessica Meier, Producers
Logline: A juror serving on a murder trial realizes he may be at fault for the victim's death.
Yes: Just when you thought Clint had hung it up, he's back for one last(?) ride. The pitch is an immediate attention-grabber and the cast is excellent. If it's a solid hit, there will be a lot of sentiment about giving Eastwood one last pat on the back.
No: It's been a decade since an Eastwood movie connected with the Academy in a major way. This also might just be too pulpy: even if it's well-liked, it might not be taken seriously enough for awards season.
Maybe So: Warner Bros. has a very stacked year with a lot of prestigious epics... but they're all sequels or prequels. Maybe it'll be their original drama that stands out from the pack.

KINDS OF KINDNESS (Searchlight Pictures)
Ed Guiney, Yorgos Lanthimos, Andrew Lowe and Kasia Malipan
Logline: A contemporary film, set in the U.S. -- three different stories, with four or five actors who play one part in each story.
Yes: Lanthimos is on a roll and has assembled a platinum cast. Momentum goes a long way, and Poor Things proved that he doesn't have to tone down his idiosyncrasies to impress the Academy.
No: It's an anthology film, a peculiar genre that is often admired but rarely embraced. The summer release date suggests that Searchlight already knows this is a tough sell for awards season.
Maybe So: If the film is received as another jewel in Lanthimos' crown and not just as a modest palate cleanser after Poor Things, then maybe his streak will continue unabated.

MEGALOPOLIS (No Distributor)
Michael Bederman and Francis Ford Coppola
Logline: An architect wants to rebuild New York City as a utopia following a devastating disaster.
Yes: Already one of the most talked about projects of the year, where you just gotta admire the audacity. An eighty-something Coppola selling his lucrative vineyard to fund his dream project, with Adam Driver lending his star power to get it over the line. From a cineaste perspective, there's a lot to root for here.
No: Well... there's a not-insignificant chance that this film is a disaster. Coppola hasn't made a successful film of this scale since Dracula over 30 years ago, and his most recent work has been idiosyncratic to the point of feeling like student films, for better and worse.
Maybe So: Even if Megalopolis has a smooth landing, its awards prospects still feel very slim. But, even so... it'd be tremendously exciting if this got anywhere.

MOTHER MARY (A24)
Toby Halbrooks, Jeanie Igoe, David Lowery, Producers
Logline: Follows the relationship between a fictional musician and a famous fashion designer.
Yes: The sheer talent behind it is intriguing. David Lowery has availed himself as a tremendously gifted filmmaker, his noble failure to polish up a throwaway Disney Pan remake aside. This could be just the stylish ticket to break him through, bring Hathaway back into the awards conversation, and anoint Michaela Coel a movie star.
No: This premise could be the stuff of Letterboxd users' dreams, but it might also be too cool and niche for serious awards consideration. A24 already has an obvious contender in Sing Sing, and garnering multiple best picture nominees is hard.
Maybe So: It really depends on whether you trust the talent involved, and have the hunch that they might just unleash something special that overcomes any prestige bias.

THE NICKEL BOYS (Amazon MGM Studios)
Joslyn Barnes, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner and David Levine
Logline: Explores the story of Elwood Curtis, a young African-American boy who is sent to the Nickel Academy, a fictional version of the Dozier School, after he is falsely accused of a crime.
Yes: It's adapting a Pulitzer Prize-winning book, which is a good place to start. It will be politically topical, and RaMell Ross proved himself a highly observant and stylish filmmaker with his documentary Hale County This Morning, This Evening.
No: It's going to be quite the bummer, and sometimes that just simply turns people off. Ross impressed with his documentary work, but narrative film is a whole other ballgame.
Maybe So: But hey, the transition from documentaries to fiction filmmaking worked out for Bennett Miller. Amazon seems reengaged with awards season after integrating MGM, and this is their most prestigious prospect on paper for the year.

NOSFERATU (Focus Features)
Chris Columbus, Eleanor Columbus, Robert Eggers, Producers
Logline: A gothic tale of obsession between a haunted young woman and the terrifying vampire infatuated with her, causing untold horror in its wake.
Yes: Eggers finally gets to realize his dream project. A lavish rendition of one of cinema's foundational works. Eggers' reputation has been steadily building; this might be his moment.
No: The genre bias is going to be extremely steep, maybe even insurmountable. Academy voters don't tend to go for movies that scare the shit out of them. It's a remake, and that Christmas release date has almost become a kiss of death for awards prospects.
Maybe So: If Focus Features has faith in its prospects, they'd be smart to give it a fall festival run beforehand. If it proves a smash at Venice, Telluride or Toronto, then who the hell knows.

PARTHENOPE (No Distributor)
Lorenzo Mieli, Adrvan Safee, Paolo Sorrentino and Anthony Vaccarello
Logline: Partenope is a woman who bears the name of her city. Is she a siren or a myth?
Yes: In an environment where more and more renowned world artists are getting recognized by the increasingly international Academy, Sorrentino seems like an obvious candidate for a breakout. This Fellini-esque odyssey looks opulent, with Gary Oldman on hand to provide a familiar face.
No: Sorrentino won the International Oscar a decade ago with The Great Beauty and cracked the category again with The Hand of God, but he's not everybody's cup of tea. Given his past work, who knows how his film about a potentially manic pixie siren girl will go over with American critics.
Maybe So: Films shot in black and white have been such a recurring presence in the best picture category lately that it's beginning to feel like a mandatory slot.

THE PIANO LESSON (Netflix)
Todd Black and Denzel Washington
Logline: Follows the lives of the Charles family as they deal with themes of family legacy and more, in deciding what to do with an heirloom, the family piano.
Yes: August Wilson adaptations have had a good track record in the past decade, and this iteration has an excellent array of talent. Denzel Washington is a valuable producer to have on hand, and Samuel L. Jackson's return to prestigious fare could drum up excitement.
No: The Broadway production with this same cast received a polite but muted reception and was mostly ignored by the Tonys. The director is completely green and it could easily fall into the dreaded "too stagy" trap. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom had juice in the acting categories and still got snubbed in the big category.
Maybe So: This is Netflix's most outwardly prestigious contender on paper for now. If Baumbach's project doesn't take off and if there's no hot international acquisition in the offing, The Piano Lesson could comfortably coast on the largesse of their campaign coffers.

QUEER (No Distributor)
Luca Guadagnino and Lorenzo Mieli
Logline: Lee, who recounts his life in Mexico City among American expatriate college students and bar owners surviving on part-time jobs and GI Bill benefits. He driven to pursue a young man named Allerton, who is based on Adelbert Lewis Marker.
Yes: A hot, sleazy William S. Burroughs adaptation from the great Luca Guadagnino, starring one of the world's biggest movie stars in a rare dramatic role. The sheer star power from Craig will garner a lot of attention, and seeing him stretch his range (yet again) could make this an attractive package deal.
No: Guadagnino connected with Call Me By Your Name, but his work before and since hasn't really been Oscar's bag. Even if this proves to be a great vehicle for Craig's first nomination, the rest of the movie might not be along for the ride.
Maybe So: If it gets snagged up by a formidable distributor, a smart campaign could make all the difference.

A REAL PAIN (Searchlight Pictures)
Jesse Eisenberg, Ali Herting and Emma Stone, Producers
Logline: Mismatched cousins David and Benji reunite for a tour through Poland to honor their beloved grandmother.
Yes: Made a splash at Sundance, where it garnered a glowing seal of critical approval. People love this movie. It could endure as Searchlight's primary pony in the race.
No: Might be deemed too "small" to withstand flashier competition or get relegated to a more modest campaign push by Searchlight if one of their other titles looks to have higher upside.
Maybe So: Having two well-known and well-liked stars will definitely help with campaigning and visibility.

THE ROOM NEXT DOOR (Sony Pictures Classics)
Augustín Almodóvar
Logline: Martha's strained relationship with her mother fractures completely when a misunderstanding drives them apart. Their mutual friend Ingrid sees both sides of the rift.
Yes: The Spanish master Pedro Almodóvar finally makes his long-awaited English-language feature film debut. That cast is outstanding. It's filming now; given the scale of Almodóvar's dramas a 2024 release is feasible.
No: It might not be ready in time for 2024. Even though Almodóvar has taken baby steps towards English with two short films, the transition to a different language can be tricky for even the most adept filmmakers. He would've cracked the Best Picture field in 2002 with Talk to Her if the field was expanded then, but the rest of his filmography has never really come close.
Maybe So: Sony Pictures Classics is a dependable campaigner; they might be able to work wonders with the added star power.

SING SING (A24)
Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar and Monique Walton
Logline: Divine G, imprisoned at Sing Sing for a crime he didn't commit, finds purpose by acting in a theatre group alongside other incarcerated men in this story of resilience, humanity, and the transformative power of art.
Yes: Already minted as a critic's darling from last year's TIFF. It enters this year with outstanding early reviews and a great meta narrative. Colman Domingo has a lot of heat coming right off his awards breakout with Rustin.
No: Currently scheduled for a July release date. Can it maintain momentum over such a long stretch before nomination season? A24 might have an even flashier contender in store.
Maybe So: Its ensemble of former inmates and alumni from Sing Sing's real-life rehabilitation program might make for a very winning band of ambassadors on the campaign trail.

SNL 1975 (Sony Pictures)
Jason Blumenfeld, Gil Kenan, Jason Reitman and Peter Rice
Logline: Follow the behind-the-scenes story in the moments leading up to SNL's first broadcast.
Yes: Hollywood loves celebrations of showbiz and dramatizations of famous people. Saturday Night Live is a beloved comedy institution, and Reitman scored big with the Academy once upon a time.
No: This is a very fresh-faced cast. Will it be ridiculed as Muppet Babies at the Wax Museum? Trying to recreate the spontaneity of sketches is extremely tricky and could fall flat on its face. Reitman hasn't made a movie that rises above "pretty good" at best since his aughts golden run; this would have to be a major return to form if it's going to work.
Maybe So: We're just one year away from Saturday Night Live's 50th anniversary. If this movie is even just solid, there could be a wave of nostalgia to acknowledge the titans of a genre that the Academy has notoriously ignored throughout its history.

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My Current Predicted Ten

• The Actor

• The Apprentice

• Bird

• Blitz

• Conclave

• Dune: Part Two

• The Nickel Boys

• Parthenope

• A Real Pain

• Sing Sing