Vladislaus II of Hungary dies in 1504

Fehérvári · Apr 5, 2019

Vladislaus II had a stroke in 1504 IOTL. Now what if that stroke took his life? He only had a daughter, Anne at that point, his OTL son, the future Louis II was born only in 1506. What would happen to Hungary? According to the Treaty of Pozsony(Pressburg) of 1491, the Habsburgs had a clear claim on the throne, but the Polish-Lithuanian Jagiellons might try something as well. It's also not clear which Habsburg would the throne be claimed for.

Another important aspect is that of the Hungarian nobility's. Who would they support? Or rather, who would support who? Interesting thing to note, that Matthias Corvinus' bastard son, John Corvinus is still alive at this point. Could he attempt to gain the throne? Or if not, who would he support?

What are your thoughts?

Jan Olbracht · Apr 5, 2019

Vladislaus' brother Sigismund is governor of Silesia at the time (and is known for managing these lands well), and he is friend of János Zápolya, thus he would have significant support in struggle for Hungarian throne.

Fehérvári · Apr 5, 2019

Jan Olbracht said:
Vladislaus' brother Sigismund is governor of Silesia at the time (and is known for managing these lands well), and he is friend of János Zápolya, thus he would have significant support in struggle for Hungarian throne.

The support from Szapolyai/Zápolya could be counterproductive though, as he, or rather, his father made most of the other magnates his enemy, especially John Corvinus. Would Bakócz side with them? Because, that's an entirely different situation then.

Jan Olbracht · Apr 5, 2019

Sigismund was governor of Silesia, which was part of Kingdom of Bohemia, so likely he would start there and claim Bohemian throne first (having large part of the Kingdom already under his rule he would be in good position to do it). If Sigismund is successfull in Bohemia, his chances in Hungary would also vastly increase.
@krieger

Jan Olbracht · Apr 5, 2019

Sigismund was quite capable governor of Silesia, so if Silesian estates supported his candidature rest of Kingdom of Bohemia should follow IMHO, fearing, that otherwise Silesia could drift towards Poland.

Fehérvári · Apr 5, 2019

Jan Olbracht said:
Sigismund was governor of Silesia, which was part of Kingdom of Bohemia, so likely he would start there and claim Bohemian throne first (having large part of the Kingdom already under his rule he would be in good position to do it). If Sigismund is successfull in Bohemia, his chances in Hungary would also vastly increase.

Jan Olbracht said:
Sigismund was quite capable governor of Silesia, so if Silesian estates supported his candidature rest of Kingdom of Bohemia should follow IMHO, fearing, that otherwise Silesia could drift towards Poland.

Does Sigismund has the means to resist the Habsburgs though?

Jan Olbracht · Apr 5, 2019

Fehérvári said:
Does Sigismund has the means to resist the Habsburgs though?

Internal support would be deciding factor. Czechs themselves would decide who should rule them.

Fehérvári · Apr 5, 2019

Jan Olbracht said:
Internal support would be deciding factor. Czechs themselves would decide who should rule them.

Let's assume, that Sigismund establishes himself in Bohemia then. Now, what about Hungary? There are lots of potential claimants there: The Habsburgs, Sigismund, Szapolyai, and even Corvinus.

Corvinus would be mostly supported by the nobility in the South, most notably the Frangepáns/Frankopans and Újlaki Lőrinc/Lawrence of Ilok. I'm not sure about the Zrínyis/Zrinskis though, they might side with the Habsburgs. For Szapolyai, he would be mostly supported by the common nobility in general, but Corvinus might snatch some support from there too. The Habsburgs and Sigismund would be mostly supported by the magnates opposing both Szapolyai and Corvinus, but I'm not sure about the exact strength of their factions. Bakócz might side with the Habsburgs though, potentially having imperial support for a future papal election might come in handy for him.

Thoughts?

Jan Olbracht · Apr 5, 2019

Sigismund on the throne means that status quo is kept, thus he'd be seen by many as compromise candidate.

krieger · Apr 5, 2019

Fehérvári said:
Let's assume, that Sigismund establishes himself in Bohemia then. Now, what about Hungary? There are lots of potential claimants there: The Habsburgs, Sigismund, Szapolyai, and even Corvinus.

Corvinus would be mostly supported by the nobility in the South, most notably the Frangepáns/Frankopans and Újlaki Lőrinc/Lawrence of Ilok. I'm not sure about the Zrínyis/Zrinskis though, they might side with the Habsburgs. For Szapolyai, he would be mostly supported by the common nobility in general, but Corvinus might snatch some support from there too. The Habsburgs and Sigismund would be mostly supported by the magnates opposing both Szapolyai and Corvinus, but I'm not sure about the exact strength of their factions. Bakócz might side with the Habsburgs though, potentially having imperial support for a future papal election might come in handy for him.

Thoughts?

Sigismund still can marry Barbara Szapolyai thus gathering Szapolyai support. I see that you want to save Hungary from Mohacs, but IMHO even with Sigismund taking the throne it wouldn't happen. Sigismund was more capable than this eldest brother and he would not piss of Ottomans. For me Corvinus would have little chance to succeed. He is a bastard, and he's young and inexperieced. In addition, a fair share of Hungarian nobiliity wasn't exactly fond of Hunyadis. Even during Matt's reign there was a plot to dethronize him and replace with Jagiellon. Maximilan is an only serious competitor for Sigismund, but he's not too popular among lesser nobles. Hungarian diet outright banned Habsburgs from succeeding the throne in 1506. Sigismund is the most likely candidate to win.

Fehérvári · Apr 5, 2019

Jan Olbracht said:
Sigismund on the throne means that status quo is kept, thus he'd be seen by many as compromise candidate.

Still, I don't think the Habsburgs would allow it to happen without a fight. They have rights to the thrones afterall. Maybe if Sigismund would be willing to sign a treaty regarding his heirless death resulting in a Habsburg inheritance of his thrones. As an assurance, his niece, the daughter of Vladislaus II could be bethrothed to one of Maximilians grandsons, Ferdinand to be exact (just like OTL).

Now, if the sceniario goes like this, and Sigismund inherits Poland-Lithuania in 1506, like IOTL, then that could lead to some very interesting sceniarios.

krieger · Apr 5, 2019

Fehérvári said:
Still, I don't think the Habsburgs would allow it to happen without a fight. They have rights to the thrones afterall. Maybe if Sigismund would be willing to sign a treaty regarding his heirless death resulting in a Habsburg inheritance of his thrones. As an assurance, his niece, the daughter of Vladislaus II could be bethrothed to one of Maximilians grandsons, Ferdinand to be exact (just like OTL).

Now, if the sceniario goes like this, and Sigismund inherits Poland-Lithuania in 1506, like IOTL, then that could lead to some very interesting sceniarios.

Rights are dubious in the case of post-Posthoumous Hungary, Leopoldine Habsburgs have exactly zero Luxembourg blood in their veins, and Jagiellons are among closest heirs of Elizabeth of Luxembourg. Deal seems likely, Sigismund would be willing to make it in exchange of being recognized as a king of Hungary. When Sigismund inherits Poland-Lithuania the huge empire is born, but Poland and Hungary will IMHO compete for leadership in this union, and the outcome depends of many factors (approach of the monarchs, activity of Turks/Moscow, etc, etc). And when Barbara Szapolayi dies who is exactly Sigismund going to marry? And with Louis II never born there is no husband for Mary of Austria.

Fehérvári · Apr 5, 2019

krieger said:
Sigismund still can marry Barbara Szapolyai thus gathering Szapolyai support.

Barbara/Borbála is around 9 at the time, while Sigismund is almost 40. Even with Medieval measures, that's a bit far-fetched imo.

krieger said:
I see that you want to save Hungary from Mohacs, but IMHO even with Sigismund taking the throne it wouldn't happen.

Well, that's just you and your pessimism

. Anyway, we're not quite there yet to discuss that in the context of the sceniario.

krieger said:
Sigismund was more capable than this eldest brother and he would not piss of Ottomans.

Having such a large continous empire would piss off the Ottomans nevertheless, but I get what you're saying.

krieger said:
For me Corvinus would have little chance to succeed. He is a bastard, and he's young and inexperieced. In addition, a fair share of Hungarian nobiliity wasn't exactly fond of Hunyadis.

He wasn't that young by this point though. And he certainly amassed a lot of experience in fighting atleast, but as you mentioned, he certainly wasn't loved by all the magnates. Still the South and a good chunk of the common nobility would side with him.

krieger said:
Even during Matt's reign there was a plot to dethronize him and replace with Jagiellon.

That happened quite a long time ago, and Corvinus had nothing to do with it.

krieger said:
Maximilan is an only serious competitor for Sigismund, but he's not too popular among lesser nobles.

That's true, but Corvinus might side with him, especially if Szapolyai sides with Sigismund like you proposed.

krieger said:
Hungarian diet outright banned Habsburgs from succeeding the throne in 1506.

The year is 1505, and not just by Habsburgs, but all foreigners were banned from taking the throne. In the end though, it wasn't a proper diet and had no legal binding.

krieger said:
Rights are dubious in the case of post-Posthoumous Hungary, Leopoldine Habsburgs have exactly zero Luxembourg blood in their veins

That doesn't matter though, since it was the Treaty of Pozsony, which assured their succession, not their relation to the Jagiellons.

krieger said:
Deal seems likely, Sigismund would be willing to make it in exchange of being recognized as a king of Hungary.

Alrighty.

krieger said:
When Sigismund inherits Poland-Lithuania the huge empire is born, but Poland and Hungary will IMHO compete for leadership in this union, and the outcome depends of many factors (approach of the monarchs, activity of Turks/Moscow, etc, etc).

That is just natural. Maybe Sigismund would take the neutral approach and rule from Prague, but I'm not sure.

krieger said:
And when Barbara Szapolayi dies who is exactly Sigismund going to marry? And with Louis II never born there is no husband for Mary of Austria.

Well, Bona Sforza is still an option, no?

Fehérvári · Apr 5, 2019

Also, if a union of Hungary, Bohemia, Poland and Lithuania being ruled by a competent ruler isn't enough to stop the Ottomans, I will eat my hat

Jan Olbracht · Apr 5, 2019

Would Sigismund even marry Barbara Zapolya, who is now his own subject? Political circumstances of such marriage would not repeat ITTL.
Perhaps Sigismund would marry Maximilian's Bavarian niece (as part of treaty with Habsburgs and because as King of Bohemia he is Bavaria's neighbour).
Sigismund IOTL tried to keep good relations with Ottomans, it would be harder ITTL but he would still try.

Gonzaga · Apr 5, 2019

For a bride, if the Habsburgs become a concern for Sigismund, what about a French alliance and a marriage to Germaine of Foix (OTL second wife of Ferdinand of Aragon and niece of Louis XII)?

Fehérvári · Apr 5, 2019

Jan Olbracht said:
Would Sigismund even marry Barbara Zapolya, who is now his own subject? Political circumstances of such marriage would not repeat ITTL.
Perhaps Sigismund would marry Maximilian's Bavarian niece (as part of treaty with Habsburgs and because as King of Bohemia he is Bavaria's neighbour).
Sigismund IOTL tried to keep good relations with Ottomans, it would be harder ITTL but he would still try.

He probably wouldn't, but not because she would be his subject, her being merely 9 is a bigger problem. Also, there's another possible choice, with just as much domestic benefits. If John Corvin still dies as OTL in late 1504, Sigismund could marry his widow, Beatrix Frankopan. The Hunyadi wealth would come under his management, and he would also acquire the support of the Frankopans. These would greatly improve his authority in Hungary. John Corvin's children doesn't really matter at this point, but if they survive, and Sigismund fails to produce a heir with Beatrix, one of them could be designated as his successor if he really wants to piss off the Habsburgs.

Fehérvári · Apr 5, 2019

Gonzaga said:
For a bride, if the Habsburgs become a concern for Sigismund, what about a French alliance and a marriage to Germaine of Foix (OTL second wife of Ferdinand of Aragon and niece of Louis XII)?

Given the Turkish threat, trying to establish peaceful relation with the Habsburgs might be a wiser choice.

Fehérvári · Apr 5, 2019

Wait a minute. Anne of Foix-Candale is still alive at this point! Wouldn't it be the most logical for Sigismund to marry her?

Gonzaga · Apr 5, 2019

Fehérvári said:
Wait a minute. Anne of Foix-Candale is still alive at this point! Wouldn't it be the most logical for Sigismund to marry her?

I'm not sure if the Church would allow him to marry the wife of his brother after she gave birth to his niece - IIRC all the cases when a brother married a former sister in law the couple never had children.

Edit: I forgot about Manuel I of Portugal. If it was ok for him, it probably would be ok for Sigismund, I guess.