Racing.com's Harry White explains why your horse can or can't win the Hareeba Stakes at Mornington
Race 9 – Hareeba Stakes (1200m) 4.35pm
1. JIGSAW $8 (Ladbrokes fixed-win odds at time of publishing)
Why he can win: He has done enough in two runs this time in, has a solid third-up record and did win this race last year.
Why he can’t win: He hasn't managed to win again since this time last year and did have a prep to forget last time in work.
2. SAVANNAH CLOUD $12
Why he can win: He comes here off a last-start win when dropping back to this distance range and is hard-fit fourth-up.
Why he can’t win: Where he settles in the run from a low draw could be make or break.
3. THE INFERNO $9.50
Why he can win: He is a distance specialist who's class should carry him a long way in a field of this calibre.
Why he can’t win: Sticky gate and he is nearing to 1000 days since he last won a race.
4. HOLYFIELD $71
Why he can win: He is much better suited second-up with a fitness base over this 1200m journey.
Why he can’t win: It has been a long time since he last won and the inside draw likely sees him buried in the run.
5. PINTOFF $9.50
Why he can win: He made it two from two last prep and has now swapped into a leading stable, has jumped out nicely and has had early market support at odds.
Why he can’t win: While his distance record is good, he was capped to 1000m last prep and comes up against more seasoned horses who have a fitness base.
6. CURRAN $17
Why he can win: He can come to hand quickly, this is is home track and there looks enough speed on paper to suit his racing pattern.
Why he can’t win: Tends to concede a head start and will need everything in front of him to pan out perfectly in the run.
7. FASHION SHOOT $23
Why she can win: She drops back to arguably her pet distance range and has been racing well across the ditch.
Why she can’t win: Sticky gate and the market support isn't there to suggest her overseas form will measure up.
8. NICOLINI VITO $16
Why he can win: His first-up record is strong, as is the jockey/trainer combination.
Why he can’t win: Her is likely to settle right back in the run so will need plenty of luck and/or a well timed ride.
9. LA DANSEUSE ROUGE $9
Why she can win: She has been jumping out well leading into the prep and has only missed a quinella finish once in four first-up runs.
Why she can’t win: The carpark draw does her no favours.
10. MAHARBA $5.50
Why he can win: He strips fitter third-up, loves this distance range and is racing well this time in handy form reference races.
Why he can’t win: Where he settles in the run from a tricky gate could be make or break.
11. GRANT IMPACT $5
Why he can win: He will have derived good benefit from a solid first-up run off a long spell and maps to be prominent in the run.
Why he can’t win: There are other speed influences drawn inside of him, so he may have to work early for a forward spot.
12. POLAND $34
Why he can win: He is coming off two months between runs and doesn't look unsuited coming back in trip (despite being 0/4 at 1200m).
Why he can’t win: It's been nearly 1200 days since he last won a race and recent form leaves a bit to be desired.
13. PARTY FOR ONE $27
Why she can win: She strips fitter third-up and the booking of Beau Mertens is a good one (35% winning strike-rate at the track this season).
Why she can’t win: The sticky gate all but ensures she will likely be ridden back to finish off and the drop in distance looks a negative.
14. STARLIGHT SCOPE $41
Why she can win: Her first-up record is solid, she is locally trained and usually puts herself in a forward spot in running.
Why she can’t win: She might need luck early getting across from a wide draw with plenty of other on pacers drawn inside of her.
15. DEVIL'S THROAT $12
Why he can win: He has been jumping out well, has a good first-up record and can utilise a low draw.
Why he can’t win: He bled in just his one run last preparation so the lack of recent racing may be a knock.
Odds correct at time of publishing, subject to change. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.