POLITICO Playbook: It’s the pandemic, stupid

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DRIVING THE DAY

FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS, we’ve sensed a bit of dread among some otherwise sunny people in the TRUMP universe. It’s not only that they’re worried he’s going to lose. It’s also something much more fundamental: They think he’s simply blowing opportunity after opportunity.

THERE ISN’T A TON of good news these days, with roughly 1,000 Americans dying of Covid-19 every day and a larger economic downturn likely in the short and long term. BUT POLITICIANS live in the moment, and here’s the moment President DONALD TRUMP had Thursday: The economic picture was getting rosier, with GDP growing at a rate of 33.1% and new weekly jobless claims dropping to a fresh low since the coronavirus started.

CONSIDER THIS IDEA, which was posed by MATT GROSSMANN of Michigan State on Thursday night on Twitter: “Was chance that GDP growth story would be big last-minute Trump boost but doesn’t even look likely to register. Several things undermine: 1 Coverage is elsewhere 2 COVID fears 3 Market reaction 4 News outlets not touting as pure good news 5 Conservative media/Trump pre-occupied.”

CAMPAIGNS are unpredictable, and so little is within the candidate’s control. But what you talk about and how you talk about it absolutely is within your reach.

JUST TAKE A LOOK AT HOW TRUMP talked about the weekly jobless claims on Thursday -- he said they were boring: “Weekly jobless claims, this is boring but it’s really good, just hit a seven-month low.” He then went on to talk about Fox News’ JOHN ROBERTS.

TRUMP ON GDP, in Tampa: “You see the number today? 33.1 GDP. The biggest in the history of our country by almost triple, right? Almost triple. Now it’s very much bigger than any GDP we’ve ever had. You have to go back to the 1950s, and then it’s less than half. This is the greatest number, 33.1%.” HE THEN continued on, talking about other items.

THE PRESIDENT SEEMS TO BELIEVE HUNTER BIDEN is a better closing message. HERE’S TRUMP IN TAMPA: “I get a call from all the experts, right? Guys that ran for president six, seven, eight times. Never got past the first round, but they’re calling me up, ‘Sir, you shouldn’t be speaking about Hunter. You shouldn’t be saying bad things about Biden because nobody cares.’ I disagree. Maybe that’s why I’m here and they’re not. But they say, ‘Talk about your economic success. Talk about 33.1%, the greatest in history.’ Now, look, if I do, I mean, how many times can I say it? I’ll say it five or six times during the speech. 33.1.”

“But you look at that and you look at Tucker Carlson, what he did the other night. Great. Great. And followed up by Sean and followed up by Laura. And the next day, nothing at all, right?”

MUCH OF THIS IS EERILY REMINISCENT of 2016, when HILLARY CLINTON’S email issues dominated the final days of the campaign. But this time, TRUMP is trying to inject into the campaign a story that’s only existing in the right-wing mediasphere. As we have mentioned, the WSJ and other right-leaning, nonpartisan and left-leaning outlets haven’t found any evidence that JOE BIDEN got involved in his son’s business activities. On Thursday night, Sinclair’s JAMES ROSEN reported that the FBI is looking into HUNTER BIDEN -- but, again, this story seems to be chiefly carried by Sinclair.

IT’S THE PANDEMIC, STUPID -- a riff on the JAMES CARVILLE line from the 1992 campaign, which was the last time a Democratic challenger beat a Republican incumbent. Polls show time and time again that the coronavirus is what matters in this election. And headlines like this -- AP: “‘So frustrating’: Grave missteps seen in U.S. virus response” -- seem to be driving the political dynamics with 4 DAYS until Election Day.

CLOSING MESSAGE, CONTINUED … NBC’S SAHIL KAPUR: “Trump adviser Stephen Miller reveals aggressive second-term immigration agenda”: “President Donald Trump’s senior adviser Stephen Miller has fleshed out plans to rev up Trump’s restrictive immigration agenda if he wins re-election next week, offering a stark contrast to the platform of Democratic nominee Joe Biden.

“In a 30-minute phone interview Thursday with NBC News, Miller outlined four major priorities: limiting asylum grants, punishing and outlawing so-called sanctuary cities, expanding the so-called travel ban with tougher screening for visa applicants and slapping new limits on work visas. The objective, he said, is ‘raising and enhancing the standard for entry’ to the United States.”

SEN. DAVID PERDUE (R-Ga.) pulled out of his final debate with JON OSSOFF to attend an event with TRUMP. CNN

Happy Friday. SPOTTED: a masked AL FRANKEN at DCA boarding a Delta flight to LAX.

WAPO’S TOLUSE OLORUNNIPA: “As Election Day nears, Trump ponders becoming one thing he so despises: A loser”: “Trailing in the polls and with little time left to change the trajectory or closing themes of the presidential race, President Trump has spent the final days of the campaign complaining that the coronavirus crisis is getting too much coverage — and openly musing about losing.

“Trump has publicly lamented about what a loss would mean, spoken longingly of riding off into the sunset and made unsubstantiated claims that voter fraud could cost him the election. He has sarcastically threatened to fire state officials if he doesn’t win and excoriated his rival Joe Biden as someone it would be particularly embarrassing to lose to.”

DRIVING THE DAY … TRUMP’S FRIDAY -- The president will leave the White House at 11 a.m. en route to Waterford Township, Mich. He will deliver a campaign speech at 1 p.m. at the Oakland County International Airport. He will depart at 2:40 p.m. and travel to Green Bay Austin Straubel International Airport, where he will speak at a campaign rally at 3 p.m. CDT. He’ll depart at 4:35 p.m. en route to Rochester, Minn. Trump will speak at a campaign rally at 5:45 p.m. He’ll depart at 6:50 p.m. and return to Washington. He’ll arrive at the White House at 10:30 p.m.

VP MIKE PENCE will leave Reno, Nev., at 10:30 a.m. PDT and travel to Flagstaff, Ariz. He will speak at a campaign rally at 12:05 p.m. MDT. Afterward, he’ll travel to Tucson, Ariz., and speak at a campaign rally at 2:30 p.m. Pence will depart at 3:50 p.m. for Washington. He’ll arrive at 10:40 p.m.

JOE BIDEN will travel to Des Moines, Iowa, in the afternoon and speak at a drive-in event. He will travel to St. Paul, Minn., and speak at a drive-in event. In the evening, he will deliver remarks in Milwaukee on voting. …

SEN. KAMALA HARRIS (D-Calif.) will travel to Fort Worth for a voter mobilization event. She’ll participate in an event with Julián Castro and Beto O’Rourke in McAllen, Texas. In the evening, she will participate in a voter mobilization event in Houston. DOUG EMHOFF will be in Las Vegas for a drive-in car rally with Rep. Susie Lee (D-Nev.). He will also attend the start of a canvas shift with Rep. Dina Titus (D-Nev.).

SPEAKER NANCY PELOSI named HENRY CONNELLY comms director. CONNELLY has been the speaker’s lead spokesperson on health care, tax and trade. “For the past seven years, Henry has been an indispensable strategic asset for my office and for the House Democratic Caucus.

“During this pivotal, transformational moment, as we prepare for a Democratic White House and Congress, Henry will be a tremendous force for progress in his new role as Communications Director, as he helps shape and deliver Democrats’ message of progress For The People.”

CORONAVIRUS RAGING … 8.9 MILLION Americans have tested positive for the coronavirus. … 228,668 Americans have died. … Thursday set a new record, with nearly 90,000 new reported cases in the U.S. … WAPO notes that coronavirus cases are up in every swing state.

-- UTAH GOV. GARY HERBERT sounded the alarm on Twitter on Thursday about the deluge of cases rocking the state and how its hospitals “are overwhelmed and unable to provide good care to everyone who needs it. We have seen this in Italy. We have seen this in New York. We could see this in Utah if things do not change.”

MEANWHILE -- “Pence absent from Covid-19 planning calls for more than a month,” by Adam Cancryn and Dan Goldberg: “When Vice President Mike Pence first took charge of the White House’s coronavirus task force, among his earliest moves was establishing a standing call with all 50 governors aimed at closely coordinating the nation’s pandemic fight. Yet as the U.S. confronts its biggest Covid-19 surge to date, Pence hasn’t attended one of those meetings in over a month.

“Pence – who has been touting the Trump administration’s response effort on the campaign trail for weeks – is not expected to be on the line again Friday, when the group holds its first governors call since Oct. 13, said a person with knowledge of the plan. It’s a prolonged absence that represents just the latest sign of the task force’s diminished role in the face of the worsening public health crisis it was originally created to combat.”

STEVEN SHEPARD: “Trump’s chances hinge on a polling screw-up way worse than 2016”: “President Donald Trump still has a path to a second term. But it would take a polling debacle that would make 2016 look like a banner year. According to a series of battleground state polls conducted and released in the week following the last Trump-Biden debate, the president’s chances of winning a second term now require winning states where he still trails with only days to go until voting concludes.

“In most of the core swing states, Joe Biden has maintained a stable — though not overwhelming — lead over Trump in polls over the past few months, continuing into the final week of the election. Some of the state polling averages have tightened slightly since the last debate, though Biden remains consistently ahead. In three live-interview polls of Florida all released on Thursday, Biden led Trump by between 3 and 5 points.

“In some of the potentially decisive states, like Pennsylvania, the polls would have to be wrong to a significant greater — greater than the errors in 2016 — for Trump to win. The latest polling averages show Biden with a 5-point lead. It’s not impossible, but you have to squint to see how Biden’s lead won’t hold up on Election Day. Even signs that were more apparent four years ago — whether in real-time or in retrospect — are more ambiguous this year.”

OLD HABITS DIE HARD … NYT’S SYDNEY EMBER: “No Selfies or Hugs, but Biden Is Sneaking In Meet and Greets”: “Though he is not quite kissing babies or walking a rope line, Mr. Biden has quietly continued chit-chatting and snapping photographs with supporters behind the scenes. Most of the encounters are not public, and they often happen far from the watchful eyes of reporters. Participants have been instructed not to take their own pictures of their interactions and to put away their cellphones before meeting Mr. Biden — a protocol that the campaign has instituted for sanitation reasons but that means there are few records of the interactions on personal social media accounts or otherwise, if there are any at all.

“During a campaign trip this month to Erie County, Pa., where Mr. Biden toured a plumbers union training center and delivered a speech, he met one-on-one in an airport hangar with local leaders and supporters including Jim Wertz, the chair of the local Democratic Party. When Mr. Wertz told Mr. Biden that his young daughter had debated at school in favor of the question ‘why should Joe Biden be the next president of the United States?’ Mr. Biden asked for her number and called her.” NYT

FLORIDA, FLORIDA, FLORIDA -- “‘We’ve got to stop the bleeding’: Democrats sound alarm in Miami,” by Marc Caputo and Matt Dixon in Miami: “Democrats are sounding the alarm about weak voter turnout rates in Florida’s biggest county, Miami-Dade, where a strong Republican showing is endangering Joe Biden’s chances in the nation’s biggest swing state.

“No Democrat can win Florida without a huge turnout and big winning margins here to offset losses elsewhere in the state. But Democrats are turning out at lower rates than Republicans and at lower rates than at this point in 2016, when Hillary Clinton won by 29 percentage points here and still lost the state to Donald Trump.

“One particular area of concern is the relative share of ballots cast by young voters of color and less-reliable Democratic voters. Part of the problem, according to interviews with a dozen Democratic elected officials and operatives, is the Biden campaign‘s decision to discourage field staff from knocking on doors during the pandemic and its subsequent delay in greenlighting — and funding — a return to door-to-door canvassing.”

VOTING IN TEXAS IS EXPLODING, via the HOUSTON CHRONICLE: “As of Oct. 27, 46% of registered voters (or 7.8 million people) in Texas had cast ballots in the 2020 election, even with four days left in early voting. The previous record was set in 2016, when 43.5% of registered voters (6.6 million voters) cast ballots during all of early voting.”

BATTLE FOR THE SENATE -- “The independent candidate that could decide the Senate,” by Marianne LeVine and Burgess Everett: “Progressive independent Lisa Savage would be an obvious spoiler for a Democratic candidate in most races. But she vows her presence in Maine’s wild Senate contest won’t hurt Democrat Sara Gideon, and may even help.

“Maine is crucial to Senate Republicans’ path to keeping their majority. And the race between GOP Sen. Susan Collins and Gideon, the Democratic state house speaker, could come down to the state’s unique voting system for federal races, which allows voters to select multiple candidates and rank them [in] order of their preference. If no candidate clears a 50 percent threshold, then the race immediately tabulates voters’ second choices.

“While Savage is unabashedly to the left of Gideon and supports big ideas like Medicare for All and a Green New Deal, she says the state’s ranked choice voting rules won’t undermine Gideon — even if she takes a significant chunk of the vote. Savage even claims to have tried to establish a pact with Democrats to ensure that Collins is gone on Nov. 3.

“Savage, in an interview, said she approached the Gideon campaign with a proposal: both candidates would encourage their supporters, using the state’s atypical voting system, to rank the other as their second choice. She says the Gideon campaign declined to participate. And Savage is telling her supporters to rank Gideon second anyway, trying to block out the Republican senator.”

REP. ERIC SWALWELL (D-Calif.) has secured permission from TAYLOR SWIFT to use her song “Only the Young” in a new video for his PAC, Remedy PAC.

COURT WATCH -- “Federal appeals court suggests late-arriving Minnesota ballots may be tossed,” by Zach Montellaro

-- “In Voting Cases, Chief Justice Roberts Is Alone but in Control,” by NYT’s Adam Liptak

TV TONIGHT -- PBS’ “Washington Week” with Bob Costa: Kristen Welker, Dan Balz and Yamiche Alcindor.

SUNDAY SO FAR …

  • FOX

    “Fox News Sunday”: Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) … Corey Lewandowski. Panel: Karl Rove, Kristen Soltis Anderson and Juan Williams. Power Player: Arnon Mishkin.

  • CBS

    “Face the Nation”: RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel … Rep. Val Demings (D-Fla.) … Scott Gottlieb … CBS battleground tracker with Anthony Salvanto.

  • NBC

    “Meet the Press”: Panel: Kasie Hunt, Rich Lowry, Claire McCaskill and Kristen Welker.

  • ABC

    “This Week”: Anita Dunn. Panel: Rahm Emanuel, Chris Christie, Donna Brazile and Sara Fagen.

  • Sinclair

    “America This Week with Eric Bolling”: Larry Kudlow … Bill O’Reilly … Rudy Giuliani … Carrie Severino … Michael Knowles … Amber Phillips.

  • Gray TV

    “Full Court Press with Greta Van Susteren”: Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) … Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.).

PLAYBOOK READS

DEEP DIVE … TIM ALBERTA in Luzerne County, Pa.: “A Journey into the Heart of America’s Voting Paranoia”

BEYOND THE BELTWAY -- “The next blow for businesses: Tax hikes that threaten more layoffs,” by Katherine Landergan and Rebecca Rainey: “Businesses across the nation could soon face state tax increases to pay for the surge in Americans filing for unemployment benefits this year, further straining employers at a time when many are fighting for survival.

“Massachusetts, New Jersey and Alabama are among the states looking at tax hikes that could cost employers billions of dollars. It would be a gut punch for businesses struggling because of the pandemic — and some fear it could trigger even more layoffs or prevent new hires. Governors have been pressing the federal government to come through with more funds, but talks between House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the White House over a new economic relief package have dragged on for months with no deal in sight, and state aid is one of the major sticking points.”

WHAT THE LEFT IS READING -- “How a fake persona laid the groundwork for a Hunter Biden conspiracy deluge,” by NBC’s Ben Collins and Brandy Zadrozny: “One month before a purported leak of files from Hunter Biden’s laptop, a fake ‘intelligence’ document about him went viral on the right-wing internet, asserting an elaborate conspiracy theory involving former Vice President Joe Biden’s son and business in China.

“The document, a 64-page composition that was later disseminated by close associates of President Donald Trump, appears to be the work of a fake ‘intelligence firm’ called Typhoon Investigations, according to researchers and public documents.

“The author of the document, a self-identified Swiss security analyst named Martin Aspen, is a fabricated identity, according to analysis by disinformation researchers, who also concluded that Aspen’s profile picture was created with an artificial intelligence face generator. The intelligence firm that Aspen lists as his previous employer said that no one by that name had ever worked for the company and that no one by that name lives in Switzerland, according to public records and social media searches.”

MEDIAWATCH -- GLENN GREENWALD goes solo: “My Resignation From The Intercept: The same trends of repression, censorship and ideological homogeneity plaguing the national press generally have engulfed the media outlet I co-founded, culminating in censorship of my own articles.” … The Intercept fires back: “The narrative Glenn presents about his departure is teeming with distortions and inaccuracies — all of them designed to make him appear as a victim, rather than a grown person throwing a tantrum.”

-- “Wikipedia buttons up key pages ahead of U.S. election,” by Reuters’ Elizabeth Culliford

PLAYBOOKERS

Send tips to Eli Okun and Garrett Ross at [email protected].

WEDDING -- Ana Rosa Quintana, senior policy analyst for Latin America at the Heritage Foundation, and Paul Lovett, a career civil servant, eloped at the Hope and Glory Inn in Irvington, Va., on Oct. 22. They met on eHarmony in 2016, and are planning a larger wedding for the spring. Pic … Another pic

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Rebecca Schieber, political director at Targeted Victory. How she got her start: “I started my career as Carly Fiorina’s body woman for her 2016 campaign. It was easily the best introduction to politics a person could ask for and incredible to work for someone as wonderful as Carly. While not scientific, I have basically been to every Panera in Iowa and New Hampshire.” Playbook Q&A

BIRTHDAYS: Ivanka Trump is 39, celebrating by hosting a MAGA event in Wisconsin … Maggie Haberman … Rep. Frank Pallone (D-N.J.) is 69 … Andrea Mitchell, NBC News chief foreign affairs correspondent and anchor of MSNBC’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” (h/ts Rachel Adler and Ben Chang) … Mitch Stewart, founding partner at 270 Strategies … Lindsay Jancek … U.S. Ambassador to the Netherlands Pete Hoekstra is 67 … former Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.) is 65 … Jeff Larson … Mitch Glazier, chair and CEO of the Recording Industry Association of America … David Krone … POLITICO’s Ally Mutnick, Bill Mahoney, Mark Rush and Sophia Socarras … Lizette Alvarez … Tim Roemer, executive director and strategic counselor at APCO Worldwide, is 64 … Scott Fay, VP of the End Citizens United Action Fund, is 41 …

… Lauren Zelt, founder and CEO of Zelt Communications … Paul Rosen, partner at Crowell and Moring … Ian Millhiser … Edwin Foulke … former Rep. Bruce Braley (D-Iowa) is 63 (h/t Jon Haber) … former Rep. Joe Heck (R-Nev.) is 59 … Laurence Leamer is 79 … Nu Wexler … Tarai Zemba … POLITICO Europe’s Annabelle Dickson … Hanna Grimm … Boeing’s Alexandra Viers … Advoc8’s Laura Mullen … Josh Rosenblum, comms officer at the Pew Charitable Trusts … Mary Sullivan ... Christine Zdelar ... Jeremy Gold (h/t Teresa Vilmain) … James Richardson, managing director at Dentons … Coy Knobel ... Richard Marks ... Michael Petricone ... Samantha Turner … Jeremy Holden ... Joe Sterling is 7-0 … Justin Hage … Lauren Callahan … Evan Reese … Robert Caro is 85 … Doug Gansler is 58 … Leah Laukien (h/t K.P. Smith)

CORRECTION: An earlier version of this Playbook misstated the name of Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s new comms director. It is Henry Connelly.