The 2024 Battleground Counties: Clark County, Nevada

Much of the attention each presidential election cycle centers on swing states where the outcome can have an outsize impact on who wins the White House. But candidate campaigns and political analysts also zero in on smaller areas where factors like demographics and turnout can play critical roles in the race's ultimate outcome.

Enter battleground counties. Often – but not always – these geographic puzzle pieces are part of a larger swing state. They can offer clues to broader patterns among key groups like Hispanic voters or blue-collar workers, as well as to the strength of a party's turnout infrastructure and where it's chosen to make investments. Sometimes, the key is simply for a party to perform to its historical strength in a given county. If a party underperforms its historical vote share in a key county, it risks losing the state and the larger national race to 270 electoral votes.

With the 2024 presidential election approaching and a rematch of incumbent President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump looking likely, U.S. News is spotlighting 13 battleground counties across the U.S., examining their past presidential track records and explaining why they're important this year.

Among the 13 counties on our list is Clark County, Nevada.

Why Is Clark County Important?

Of the presidential battleground states, Nevada has the fewest electoral votes, with six. But since 2000, the state has been hotly contested in four of the six presidential contests. In 2000, 2004, 2016 and 2020, the winner in Nevada has edged the loser by 2 to 3 percentage points, though former President Barack Obama won Nevada by 12 and 6 points in his two races in 2008 and 2012. Senate, gubernatorial and other statewide races in Nevada have often been close during that period as well.

Clark County, which includes Las Vegas and its environs, is home to almost three-quarters of Nevada’s population, making it the single biggest factor in winning the state. Historically, the county votes Democratic, but the precise share of the vote for Democrats there, and the overall level of turnout, matters hugely for who wins the state.

Jon Ralston, editor of the Nevada Independent, says that “in all the decades I have covered Nevada politics, this year could be the most volatile, especially because nonpartisan registration is now the plurality in the state. Which way those independents lean, which campaigns are most adept at finding their indie voters, will win."

Who Lives in Clark County?

Only about 28% of Clark County’s 2.3 million-plus residents live in Las Vegas proper; the famous casino-hotels on the “Strip” are technically in the county rather than the city. The second-biggest city in Clark County is the suburb of Henderson, followed by North Las Vegas.

Clark County is diverse. It’s about 39% non-Hispanic white, 33% Hispanic, 14% Black and 11% Asian. It has a larger share of foreign-born residents than the U.S. as a whole (22% to 14%) and a slightly smaller share of senior citizens than the nation does.

Clark County’s economy is heavily tilted toward Las Vegas’ signature casinos, with revenues flowing from a combination of gaming and more family-friendly entertainment. Most of the largest employers in Clark County belong to the hospitality sector, and this means that pay is relatively modest. Median household income is about $5,000 a year less than it is for the nation, and the poverty rate is almost 2 percentage points higher than the U.S. level. A bit over 26% of Clark County residents have bachelor’s degrees, about 8 percentage points lower than the U.S. average.

How Has Clark County Tended to Vote?

The hospitality workforce in Clark County is highly unionized, and the unions are used to flexing their political muscle, almost always on behalf of Democrats.

So the issue in every campaign cycle, including 2024, is less about whether Clark County will vote Democratic, but whether its Democratic vote will be sufficient to carry the party statewide.

“The Democrats rely on their reliable ‘Reid Machine,’” the political organization built by the late Sen. Harry Reid, says Jeremy Gelman, a University of Nevada-Reno political scientist. “It involves a massive turnout operation, organized in close coordination with the powerful Culinary Union in Clark County. This usually involves a well-coordinated, extensive door-to-door get-out-the-vote campaign that reminds Democratic voters to turn out.”

In the past four presidential races, Democrats have won Clark County by enough votes to ensure a statewide victory, though in 2016 and 2020, the statewide Democratic wins have been narrow. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won Clark County by about 10 points and the state by a little over 2 points. In 2020, Biden won Clark County by about 10 points and the state by 2.4 points.

The unions’ muscle extends to down-ballot races. In the 2022 Senate race, incumbent Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto won Clark County by 53,000-plus votes, enabling her statewide victory of fewer than 8,000 votes. But in the 2022 gubernatorial race, incumbent Democrat Steve Sisolak won Clark County by a bit under 39,000 votes, which was not enough to buoy him statewide. Sisolak lost his seat by more than 15,000 votes.

How Could the 2024 Campaign Play Out in Clark County?

Gelman expects a “highly nationalized” campaign, although Nevada’s history of economic booms and busts suggests the economy could be an especially potent issue this year. He adds that Nevada “is not a particularly religious state,” so the issues that “animate the religious right do not resonate as much here.”

For Democrats, the goal for 2024 is to “ensure that the Reid Machine is firing on all cylinders and that the party continues to refine its get-out-the-vote efforts to leverage Nevada's recently implemented voting laws, including mail voting and same-day registration,” says David Damore, a University of Nevada-Las Vegas political scientist. Reid died in December 2021, and his machine largely met expectations in the 2022 midterms.

The goal for Republicans, Damore says, is “to cut the Democratic margin with Latino voters. So far, the GOP has made some inroads there, but not enough to move the needle statewide.”

Damore says the GOP also needs to “encourage its voters to use early and mail voting instead of waiting until Election Day to vote,” as Trump often has urged his supporters.

What Other Races on the 2024 Ballot Could Have an Impact?

Nevada is hosting another high-profile Senate race in 2024, with Democrat Jacky Rosen seeking a second term. Her race ranks among the most competitive in the country, and the contest is expected to draw large amounts of cash and extensive advertising.

What Other Counties in Nevada Are Worth Keeping an Eye On?

The only other county in Nevada with political significance is Washoe County, which includes Reno.

Washoe County is home to less than 16% of Nevada’s population, but it’s a crucial slice of the electorate, because Washoe has often served as the decider between the Democratic stronghold of Clark County and the roughly 10% of the state that resides in the heavily Republican counties known as “the rurals.” Its drift toward the Democrats in recent elections has proved crucial to recent Democratic statewide wins.