Miami Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert is coming off another lost season due to a knee injury. He followed his old offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel to Miami with the hopes of restarting his career. What can fantasy football managers expect from Mostert in the 2022 season, and is he a good value at his current ADP in fantasy football drafts?
Raheem Mostert’s fantasy outlook for 2022
Mostert’s career path is about as uncommon as it gets. The 2015 UDFA had a total of seven carries over his first three seasons. He broke out over the final stretch of the 2019 campaign, where he averaged 17.4 PPR fantasy points per game from Weeks 12-17.
Unfortunately, that 2019 season would be the only one Mostert was ever healthy. He played 15 games that year. The following year, Mostert entered as the clear lead back for the 49ers but managed to play in just eight games. He averaged a respectable 12.5 ppg that year. Mostert’s 2021 season ended in the first quarter of Week 1.
At his best, Mostert is a slashing one-cut back that makes the most out of his runs. He averaged 6.3 yards per touch in 2019 and was top five in yards created per touch. Mostert also led the NFL in the percentage of carries that went for 15+ yards.
Now, after back-to-back injury-ravaged seasons and at 30 years old, Mostert is looking for a fresh start in Miami.
How the Dolphins’ depth chart impacts Raheem Mostert’s fantasy projection for the season
Last season, the Dolphins’ backfield was a cluster of replacement-level running backs. Three of them are gone. The only ones remaining are Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed — for now. Both flashed at times, but the former seventh-round pick and UDFA, respectively, were never likely to remain atop this depth chart.
This offseason, the Dolphins made it a point to address their backfield without doing something crazy like signing anyone to a big contract or using a high draft pick on a rookie. The Dolphins signed Chase Edmonds, Mostert, and Sony Michel. We can say with a high degree of confidence that these are the top three backs on the roster.
Given how the NFL and fans view Tua Tagovailoa, the perception is this is a run-first offense. In actuality, the Dolphins had the seventh-highest neutral game script pass rate last season, throwing the ball 60% of the time.
With that said, McDaniel comes from Kyle Shanahan’s zone-running school. There’s certainly a narrative to paint that Mostert was brought in to be his lead runner, with Edmonds as the primary receiving back.
Mostert carries more risk than reward
The problem with Mostert’s fantasy outlook is there are so many potential problems and just not enough upside. In a best-case scenario, he emerges as the primary runner and goal-line back. With a career-high target share of 7% in 2020, Mostert will never play that role. Even if Edmonds gets hurt, Gaskin would probably take over before Mostert. If everything breaks right, Mostert could be a 12-14 carry-per-game RB who scores a few touchdowns.
Now for the bad part. We don’t really know if Mostert can still play football at the same level he could before injuring his knee multiple times. So, we have questions about if his talent is still there. Then, there’s the distinct possibility he just can’t beat out Michel for carries. There’s also a chance Edmonds sees more work on the ground than many analysts are projecting.
Ultimately, Mostert checks too many boxes on the list of things I try to avoid in a fantasy RB. Between his age, injury history, the crowded backfield, and lack of receiving role, the most likely outcome is Mostert not being particularly fantasy-relevant in 2022.
Mostert’s ADP for 2022
Mostert’s ADP is all over the place, depending on the source. It averages out to around 145th overall and roughly the RB50. In PFN’s consensus 2022 PPR fantasy rankings, we have him slightly lower in terms of the position as the RB57. However, due to the way we value RBs, and the absence of kickers and defenses from our rankings, Moore is actually ranked almost exactly where his ADP resides.
The problem is that Mostert does not have a defined role and has a chequered injury history, to say the least. At best, he’ll be an early-down back with goal-line carries. At worst, he plays behind Michel and Gaskin and barely sees the field.
I have no interest in drafting Mostert at all. There’s very little upside, and his floor is missing a majority of the season. Although he’s very inexpensive, there are better darts to throw late in fantasy drafts.