good once morning. thanks for joining us this morning. . i am maria bartiromo. it is wednesday, november 15. 8:00 a.m. on the east coast, time for hot topic of the hour biden administration focusing on green climate change energy

agenda ahead of president of biden meeting with xi jinping california governor gavin newsom giving xi warm welcome on tarmac in san francisco yesterday meanwhile, u.s. announced agreement to restart climate talks with china, plans to back a global renutritiously target president biden also a climate assessment event in d.c. yesterday here is what he said. >> we have to keep going. above all it shows us climate action offers on opportunity for nation to come together do some really big things. i have seen firsthand what reports make clear. the devastating toll of climate change existential threat to all of us is the ultimate threat to humanity, climate change. maria: [chuckling]. >> biggest threat to humanity. adam: if lie is big enough you say enough times, yep people catch on. maria: come together joe come together and accept all these

new rules that we're putting in your life to pay more around climate change, accept the fact that you are going technique changing the way you live, getting rid of certain appliances, accept the fact that it is going to be much more expensive for you. >> china isn't going to pitch in one dollar or india or russia consider what do they have in common bee biggest polluters in the world same president makes argument climate change a is more of a threat to this country than nuclear war, at last check wouldn't be very good for climate if nuclear bombs are going off all over the place just argument i don't know. maria: whether be rules businesses follow because of agenda. stacey: it is a headline for a lot of companies they do what they have to do take a --

if you talk behind scenes it is not really where they are toing to be investing in it is not a priority, let's, the consumer some will pay extra for sustainability the majority will tell you, not going to do it. maria: not going to do it but they have to follow certain rules if in securities and exchange commission rule. stacey: very expensive to complement different rules regulations, as you say there are so many things in the world to worry about impact, much more than that. maria: making you sit in podium climate change is bigger threat than wide-open border border terrorists getting apprehend. >>. adam: that is talking point, do good in the world it is so, ub artificial ace ingenerous, rsg, as money manager don't

skr esg environmental, social governance issues box checking insincere, completely missing the point. >> you know what is insincere cleanup in san francisco, to make it look beautiful for xi jinping. w. how about citizens in a live there cleanup for them get this a check tv news crew was reportedly robbed covering asia summit in a are san francisco a cameraman covering a shot three masked men approached with guns at stomach and head as gavin newsom slammed after city got a face-lift ahead of summit xi jinping's approval biden being urged meet with city homeless population during trip to see issue firsthand a check tv camera crew has guns pointed at camera guy's stomach other

crewmen at his head. >> reminds me six months ago a cyy true went to on the all have to interview mayor about homeless problem came out car had been broken into equipment stolen, here it is just happening time and time again, because you have a group of people running the city of san francisco. who up until this past week, simple were willing to let homeless people rule the roost. >> gavin newsom, so, not running a campaign just meeting leader of china just going to china meeting the head of the communist party but no says not running for president. >> when you run your state like china i guess best to go to china meet with president of china how do we implement some draconian rules in our state, plan b, remember if joe biden doesn't run in people's ice look at the way california is run right now campant homelessness drug use obviously, crime is out of

control, the most expensive state in the country to live in highest income taxes in the country most people leaving any state in the country than any other is california where are they going? florida tennessee in common no income taxes, lower crime. maria: i hope that voters when makes it official gavin newsom makes it official yeah, i am going to run for president i hope voters remember, his performance on in state of california, he is cute, young, fresh face. >> approval rating according to poll in california 44% in california his own state doesn't even like him he can't get half voters, bumper sticker, a winner. >> a shutdown averted mike johnson with a big win scoring a major victory with clean continuing resolution no israel ukraine funding passes

overwhelming democrat support florida congresswoman is here with more on that you are watching "mornings with maria" live on fox business, stay with us. ♪ , every -- whatever know, ♪ ♪ . . ♪ explore endless design possibilities. to find your personal style. endless hardie® siding colors. textures and styles. it's possible. with james hardie™. ♪ is it possible to fall in love with your home... ...before you even step inside? ♪ discover the magnolia home james hardie collection. available now in siding colors, styles and textures. curated by joanna gaines.

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hi, i'm stacey, and i've lost 60 pounds on golo. (guitar music) i was surprised with the golo plan, i was not hungry. thanks to release, i don't feel the need to go for snacks or go back for seconds. give golo a try. this plan works. resolution yesterday that would avert a government shutdown should it pass senate likely, 336 lawmakers voted for two-step proposal would fund part of government until january 19 the rest until february 2shs mike johnson getting edge when democrat support passing that bill over 90 republicans voted against it johnson released this statement after the passage of today's continuing resolution, puts house republicans in best position to fight for conservative policy victory joining me florida congresswoman anna paulina luna member of house oversight committee congresswoman do you agree with that nie i mean i

can tell you he is very knew at the job but i was very disappointed to see the cr go through, you know i was for cr under mccarthy my family willing to give up salaries to work through some issues, have tough conversations during a potential government shutdown it was is not back then not good now. >> you voted against. >> it yes, ma'am. >> what happens do you expect it to pass the senate and what are the priorities you you in the house going forward? >> yes, so as far as we're hearing do i think that it will pass in the senate. right now the house is actually working on finishing those appropriation bills single -- bills frankly that hoping getting back to regular order obviously, growing pains american people are witnessing us go through again going back to the real reason why i ran for office, and why many colleagues voted against this

is we don't i mean, more -- don't need more spending in washington seems that has kind of been how washington functioned last over a decade, so we are trying to break from what would be considered normal up here do our jobs. speaker also reportedly told moderate republicans there is insufficient evidence to start impeachment proceedings against president biden wants lawmakers to take time not rush to conclusions congresswoman. . what former speaker kevin mccarthy was removed you said you would only back a new speaker willing to bring up a vote on impeachment. where do things stand today? >> i dual stand by that not question -- actual a speaker johnson on conference call that we had sunday, ultimately he said that was misreported he backs impeachment inquiry wants to allow representatives comer jordan to do what they're doing but that he did

indeed back that did say that was disinformation. >> what can you tell us about investigation you are oversight you have seen evidence that of you talked with us about, including to 20 shell companies that vice president joe biden set up while in office, 176 suspicious after i reports witness testimony what do you believe most damning evidence that you've seen terms your chairman james comer used? as of right now for me i think the smoking gun was when you had with whistleblowers forward to the fbi, fbi as you know tried to hide that document from us, ultimately stated that there was either recordings that existed of joe biden being on some of these calls and having information that this administration has been brokering deals while then-vice president was in office to remember there is 10% for "the big guy" "the big

guy" being joe biden, i do believe that we have enough evidence to move forward and bring that vote to the floor right now. but we also just issuing by we i mean chairman comer issued more subpoenas effort to bring ford more evidence do i believe maria we will likely see that vote forward probably in january, after the holidays. >> what are you expecting in terms of subpoenas wit tments hunter biden got a spp when under oath. exactly something i think chairman comer needs to apply pressure on been doing it, i i would hope to get people in front of krong kim frankly tired of the fact people look at subpoenas don't respect us seems like they think republican jelled majority is a joke they don't have to answer to congress, one, i am very interested in seeing, what exactly conversations took place with joe biden, and hunter biden on the phone i think is going to be incredibly important to access

some of those bank records, but again we have to start these proceedings because it does feel like for a long time we've been stonewalled i think once american people have full transparency, we can conduct in a very public setting i think that is when we will see more information come forward again i have been a huge advocate for this i think we need to proceed forward as you saw yesterday in hearings it is getting contentious in washington tensions at an all-time high. >> you introduced a bill yesterday would stop foreign adversaries from a accessing or exploiting with americans's personal data prohibits tiktok facebook, instagram from storing any citizen data in a physical data center in a foreign defiers like china cuba iran north korea russia we know skyrocketing prosecute communist party or social media companies. >> certainly so, you know my background was in social media, one of the biggest it

seems like a form of news currency information on american people, whether it is for corporate marketing or whether targeting for elections or whether nefarious platforms like tiktok are collecting data on you users owned, operated by countries, that don't have an invested interest in seeing united states or western culture survive and succeed what my bill is hoping to do is protect information of american users of that data in my opinion is probably some of the most you've and also precious information we currently have in this digital age. >> very important thanks for taking it on congresswoman good to see you this morning. thank you. >> thank you, god breszmee and to you you ana paulina, breaking news the israel defense forces launched a trd

operation in gaza's largess hospital fox news correspondent live with more alex. >> hi maria, so we are learning more about what justice took place behind me if i step out of camera can give you a look at smoke that is still on hillside right here my photographer is going to push in all from missile rocket attacks that took place really within last 30 minutes, our team ran down to the bottom shelter we've a monitor down there from the camera that is up here able to see 15 strikes from hezbollah again hitting just above where we were taking shelter this is a reality for a lot of evacuated towns just military presence at this point the idf says continuing to become much more disastrous situation tens continues to flare up from right now the idf is pressing forward in gaza now entering o al-shifa hospital largest hospital in gaza that is where the idf says hamas built a

stronghold today we are learn whatting, they have found ammunition other military infrastructure inside the hospital, pentagon confirmed they believe there is adequate edge tos suggest that hamas really is using medical facilities to not only store military equipment but else potentially story hostages, at the same time we did see new footage coming out about some hospitals in hospital workers al-shifa released by gaza health ministry shows smoke newed as patients being pulled out on stretchers u.n. warning not able to pretty much a lot of workers inside that hospital we have footage about idf today on the ground continuing to push forward the country defense minister said not safe anywhere until hostages come home we are learning more about the possible new hostage negotiation deal would intail

entail brornld by egypt qatar if israel agree need to release women children held in israel palestinian women and children israel would have to increase the amount of humanitarian said sent to gaza in exchange for that some hostages would potentially be released returned back home this would also include, a three-day cease-fire called on by hamas a lot of potentials on the table seems like israel really would have to do quite a lot in order to get those hostages back but we've continually heard from government that is the main priority is to find those hostages, because situation continues to get worse and worse as every day every week goes by, the conditions, but lived through what they've suffered last several weeks . >> 240 hostages unbelievably thank you be safe great work we will watch your reporting, alex hogan this morning in

israel thank you. we'll be right back.. . (adventurous music) ♪ ♪ ♪ be ready for any market with a liquid etf. get in and out with dia.

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through power outages with unlimited cellular data and up to 4 hours of battery back-up to keep you online. only from xfinity. home of the xfinity 10g network. maria: welcome back. markets rallying this morning take a look at futures indicating a gain 1125 on dow industrials nasdaq up 117 right now that is ahead of october producer price index

out a in exactly five minutes economists expecting prices up one-tenth of one percent month-over-month up 1.9% year-over-year ppi, also waiting retail sales economists expecting consumer spendsing to fall 3/10 of a percent month-over-month talking about it with chief investment offer louis navellier how important are reports to you what are you expecting? >> well, on the ppi, i want to look at service costs, that is the only ppi elevated, but has moderated the recently we want to see further moderation, been negative some months importing deflation from china we have a strong dollar as far as retail sales a little confusing with target tjx news this morning, you know target is up on a same-store sales decline 4.9% tjx down with 6%

same-store sales increase, so, retail is whoever can manage operating margins, eke out -- we want to see, the spending that is always interesting. >> stacey widlitz with us. stacey: hi, there, you know interesting because you have seen target down 23% year-to-date, including this rally, tjx up 15% even though slightly down, but, so how do you think about expectations? and how do you think about the fact that most of the not of increases the come through pricing? what happens next what does this look like? >> a direct retailer is best model out there versus the ones with boxes, the stores. so i don't have a store retail right now i just have ones that operate direct, something like elf cosmetics an example, and, that is the more

efficient sales model what i noticed is that whenever i buy something register it they try to sell to me direct, sir circumvent who i bought it from i hope storefront sales pick up one day out only sales are more efficient. >> talking macrostory for awhile as interest rates have gone higher, 11 rate hikes from the fed here is a look at 10-year treasury after yesterday's cpi report 10-year up 2 1/4 basis points a level 4.46%, the "the wall street journal" nick timiraos writing that cooling inflation, will likely end the fade rate hikes as new estimates, central bank will cut interest rates deeply this spring, do you agree with that. >> one hundred percent, yeah. i expect that on december meeting, the announcement will no show right increase chairman powell already hinted

that after press conference, the fed wants to stay out of political debate, so a they will be cutting rates many times in 2024 probably 3%, just stay out don't want to be blamed for any woes in america they have to follow market rates market rates are going down they will catch up with them. maria: adam johnson. adam: hi good to see you, the small caps up to 2 russell 2000 not a hugh high over 500 days only happened five times in 50 years, large because of interest rates. if in fact you are right i hope you are the fed is done beating fed done is this a signal having to back in small caps further out on risk spectrum. >> a great point we had early january, yesterday, nothing less than incredible probably a real jan effect in january but small caps tend to be

stronger from november through april, may. and very sensitive to pension fund very volume sensitive. a strong dollar also helps some small caps because don't have currency risk big multinationals i was very encouraged by that rally yesterday, get more follow-through today. maria: how are you allocating money in, if face of all that louis. >> i tend to fine-tune portfolios i have a little cash i think any cash i have will be vested last week december i want to stay out of the the way we are become to folk a firm market through thanksgiving then might have, some backing and filling i see nothing but good news holidays help every in holidays friends, family football food all that everyone, off from the marketed we will have a very strong january, animals

election year good for market everybody running around promising everything and anything, that -- >> so you are going into a seasonally positive period for stocks you want to own stocks what you are saying? >> have absolutely. especially in falling rate environment, you know. of course, the button investors suffered last three years finally getting some money back here, in the last, couple weeks, but, you know,, it is -- something called velocity of money how fast money changes hands what we want in retail sales other reports like that is that the money remains healthied we have two americas one 20% can't pay bills, then there is upper 20%, flush, that upper 20% driving it home. markets near highs of the morning, given the economic data that is hitting the tape we've got ppi out retail

sales, out with dow industrials up 121 nasdaq up 116. s&p 500 higher by 23. gerri willis covering retail sales expected down 3/10 of a percent retail sales ppi expected up one thenno month month, gerri doubtful numbers. retail sales for the month, up 2.5%, that compares with september reading 3.8% gain, month-over-month, 0.1% i believe that is a gain with expectation that would it fall 0.3%. and auto sales really point 1% increase was expected to be flat. ppi let's go to inflation, this is your prices paid by wholesalers year-over-year for the month 2.7% gain compared to 1.9% that is a sign of

inflation. prices paid by wholesalers, but for the month, october, down.5. 0.5%, food an emergency core, 2.4% gain compared to expectations of.3%. and year-over-year.1% compared to expectations of 2.7%, so we're seeing strong inflation numbers here. it looks like we're seeing continuing spending by consumers been a big question how strong consumers would be, these numbers look like very positive. for the holidays season. >> yesterday don lufkin was on said there is going to be a negative number in near-term exactly what we're getting ppi fo october down 5/10 of a percent interesting to see movement the dow shot up, up 150 points a minute ago now up 94s losing steam here, ppi retail sales,

better-than-expected this morning joining us to react kansas city, kansas city federal reserve weather ceo thomas hoenig, former toys "r" us ceo are former tr is vice chairman, adam johnson joe concha stacey widlitz what is your reaction to gathers real sales down 5/10 of a percent, 2.7% year year retail sales up would be tenth off a of one percent versus estimate called for dln. >> i think it is you know -- most importantly inflation numbers continue to come in, favorably i think that is a big change for the fed. number one, they are now -- already -- from 2% target primary they want soft landing taking over so there are going to you are not seeing rate increases let time so long as supplies up inflation, let

time heal inflation i think a big deal, the retail sales numbers, you know -- as negative, but beyond that aren't so strong they feel they have to slow that down at all. so there are going to be very strong, now whole discussion going forward will be how soon will they cut just talked about it a minute ago that is going to be -- the topic for the rest of this year. maria: i keep thinking if they are going to cut rates going to be if in response to real weak economy jerry storch your take on holiday season last time you were not expecting a positive showing over holidays what is your expectation now going into year-end. >> numbers simply confirm what i've been saying better that have been expected 2.5% year-over-year increase retail sales is lower than ccpi

number we got, so down 1d -- 11.8% year-over-year month october, building materials home depot lowe's down 5.6% we saw home depot yesterday saying down 3%, for the quarter. health -- gasoline station down 8% probably good news sporting news down, department stores down 4.1% or 1.2% from prior month, so for retailers of things going to report comp sales on those things we talked today target down 4.9%, very clear that going into holiday here consumers buying less than they did last year, certainly inflation adjusted basis very tough holiday for retailers of things of products that you buy, so up restaurants could be up travel could be up but not what retailers saw that is not good news for retail stocks. >> great point how do you

counter that look, we're looking at an economy that is slowing, that is no secret here. >> well, yeah, when i look at retailer sales i look at bars and restaurants because if people are out about drinking a good sign, that is what has been happening recent months, i restaurant sales didn't see detail yet but the definitely spending on services, goods are a problem, again, a retail direct retailer store stronts. >> stacey thoughts on numbers this morning. stacey: there a little bit better than expected we talked about, certainly i think that there here and have-nots, you know look at tjx numbers, homegoods up 9% to comp, t.j. was up 7% in target down 4, tjx killing with it traffic all traffic, definitely winners, losers into next year

jerry talking about the fact we have to grow units there are the retailers doing that certainly retailers won't be able to do that. >> joe? look from macro level maria what does this mean for 2024? we heard falls saying usually election years it is correct, the economy usually does better, the question is does that translate into joe biden's overall approval on the economy where languishing in 30s people still think inflation is too high wages aren't keeping up with it the way they should hasn't last three years or so, does joe biden get political capital out of positive reports, in '24 if economy does improve or has impression been set he is not person to stewarded this country and donald trump or republican nominee is the person. >> you are looking at inflation data macrostory on retail how do you see it. >> i will make two comments on inflation first of all it was lower than expected, for

second day in a row that is a big deal why stocks up a lot yesterday why stocks are up again today. that is point number one, number two that is a little bit, viewers may hear disinflation, disinflation a weird term means prices are still going up, but not going up as much as they were. so when we talk about inflation falling it is a little disingenuous we can say inflation is coming down but as it is still going up, i think that is what consumers are trying to wrestle with yep still out there just -- hurting us a little bit less, i take that as progress, that is why markets are up today. maria: that target story is really, ripping through markets, stock up 13% right now, on these numbers, even if we're talking about slow season to come? >> well, clearly, what tr is going getting better control over business so operating

gross margin rate story able to be able reduce inventories drive up gross mash rates weren't able to do anything but lose market share if you went in target stores i did you saw a lot of -- out of stuff out of halloween costumes before halloween means selling at high price but not selling enough so shrinking walmart up 6% target down 5% 11% spread same-store sales,again we see huge market share shifting into a wallwall out of target that is not a winning hand for long term they have to do both grow the company and deliver on profit, wall street relieved at least control of inventory, generating a profit stock same as before pandemic four years gone nowhere walmart doubled in market value. >> i am glad you mentioned

shrink, because that is what many people call retail crime i ask you about retail crime a california sheriff is accusing target executives preventing law enforcement from arresting shoplifters does target have a responsibility to shareholders to stake every step to correct a down on, or potentially doing to share responsibilities by not doing that. >> trying too hard to thread a needle between you know doing what is necessary, to address the retail crime issue, and appearing like they are kind of good people, doing right things for a customers, it is one thing to say that they don't want their own people he to tackle customers in aisles we heard a lot why don't store the lows go after people well, we don't want them to get hurt different thing when you say don't even let police do it do it behind store apparently going on here, i think can't have it both ways can't complain about the, let police do their job. >> have you pushed out

expectations for recession into new year, tell me mow you see things why it has taken so long to see an impact of 11 rate hikes. >> i think there's several reasons, one i think we underestimated the extent of fiscal stimulus, not just pandemic immediately but chips act infrastructure act stimulated economy given strong third quarter, for example,, part of that was i think that is -- that is a big issue for the delay i think, also, last spring we had that banking hiccup fed put another 4 hundred billion back into the reserves, that i think stimulated carried forward market pick up on down to 2% sooner, let things -- the pressures feeling why you are going to see some rate cuts

include slowing economy, very likely, to -- avoid a recession. the fact banking industry fragile i think if getting rates download help banking i think people understatement how fragile banking industry is employment rising aware of that not raising rates going to be under pressure to lower rates sooner even with inflation above 3% that is i think the danger for inflation, in the future final fiscal policy, is a mess. they're under pressure now to begin to -- shall we say easy up on quantitative tightening, i think the economy is going to slow more, going to stand down be under pressure -- and you will see how that plays out, but i think there is still a -- a good risk of a recession. and the fed, walking this very fine line. maria: so are you looking at

the odds of another rake hike lessening? yesterday, after cpi number, it felt like wall street was just putting that aside. rate hike nothing --r. >> i think rate hike is off the table unless a very big surprise in inflation. also letting real rates rise, so long as they don't lower rates letting real rates rise if inflation comes down betting on that slowing economy i think rates are still high enough economy is still fragile enough that risks of of recession remaining next year. then will accelerate rate cut quickly, i think a lot of pressure on fed to lower rates almost immediately even with inflation 3 to 4% range in terms of core inflation. >> louis navellier is this rally separate and part from the macrostory? i mean feels like doesn't have anything to do with what we're seeing in real fundamentals, i

know this is better better number but you are seeing layoffs you are seeing expectations for a recession next year. yet stocks up 7% in november nasdaq up 30 plus percent year-to-date, what do you do with that as investor. >> we have positive arranges to s&p nvidia grand fan ale next week that number the further, but fourth first second quarter, much stronger due to year-over-year comparisons energy rejoins the party energy did not the favorable year-over-year comparisons this quart but will in upcoming quarters much stronger earnings growth going to drive p/e ratios longer, small cap 4 1/2 times next year, large cap 13 times, next year's estimated earnings, so, when earnings come out will

shed p/e ratios down i think a natural appreciation, lot of thing a lot of growth energy exports exporting 4.8 million barrels crude oil saudi arabia natural gas, lgm going everywhere, diesel gasoline, et cetera, people don't see that, that economic growth but it is happening. that is why trade deficit is shrinking so fast. >>. >> i have a question for you since you were chairman of target toys "r" us you have seen it all back in cycle of lean, lean inventories in the past black friday the holds given everything away last year too much inventory what do you think it looks like this year? are he retailers still, inventory going to push promotions hurt margins to get consumer out there motivated for nonessentials. >> they have to sales 130i7k

going through earlier look at report you see a lot of negatives here year-over-year basis, as you know, you are in retailing, pay most attention same-store sales, a bunch retailers running negative same-store sales. from month of october going into november and december thinking what are we going to do we have to promote, in order to drive the business doesn't mean that they haven't been trying to -- reach inventories aren't lean on those will sell out when it gets to black friday itself keep in mind a lot of products are bought for black prooit closest out products deals from vendors, specials i expect to try to make noise in black friday black friday will be largest in-store shopping day of the year not what it used to be probably going to be you know a fraction a half, of way it used to be more focus on stats leading up to

christmas colleague concluding super saturday right before they have to be aggressive even though lean i think disappointment here in sales not as robust as some expected it to be. maria: how does china fit into all this to many hoenig china pumped bash into system overnight stimulus funding one reason saw gains in asian market, put context obsess all of this for us as china pumps new cash into a banking system. >> china has their own economic mess going on right now, and the central bank the government there is finally recognized that putting money in because banks are finally exposed to losses even more so than ours, and reacting to that, that is he full expected don't want that prices my more than we do stepped up to it

they are economy in many ways is worse than ours as they try -- pandemic very unsuccessfully doing it what you are going to see more of i think coming out of china. they have very -- problems. maria: joe. >> question for jerry talk about black friday before maybe short of expectations as far as buying in stores maybe because of inflation savings eaten into don't have as muc to spend for holidays a forecast as if far as cyber-monday i can say i don't accept foot in a stoefrg through amazon online dealership i don't like lines hate parking cars a mile away from place too cold so that like the rest of is. >> pretty much much like rest of us. >> i thought you are smo. sundaying pessimist. >> i am lazy shop at home have it delivered as opposed to going to the store dealing with people. >> i tried to be realist black

friday internet killed black friday because why is wait in line deal with all that even though some think it is fun, when all the items, on internet almost at the same time sometimes day before thanksgiving day or thanksgiving eve nights internet killed black friday. as far as the cyber-monday, today's rel sales for example one area year-over-year none store retailer up year-over-year growing, capturing massive share not all happening on cyber-monday anymore there is a lot of deals stwart amazon does prime days october a lot pulled forward people run internet deals call it black friday throughout november a lot spread out cyber-monday should be bigger than cyber-monday last year by a few percent see reports records cybermonday, up 3%or something like that versus, not kind of we used to

see 20% year-over-year compound he increases on cybermovbd not seeing that anymore people love internet just being spread out. >> how weak could this season be a surprise for people? >> again you know all i am trying to say that is when you keep saying consumers strong, i consumer spending money but on services, a lot of services, by the way,r healthcare, rent greatly inflated in value when you look at sales physical products across the economy units moving are down, down month after month inflation adjusted core federally 1.6% year-over-year increase core retail on report came out today inflation, cpi, 3% less units being sold you could see retailers disappointed i still think up whether one percent, 2% or 3%, year-over-year

intreefr not robust holiday season when context of inflation probably, basically flat, old days we expected a lot more out of the holiday season. of course, of course, fed looking at that thomas hoenig as perhaps weak spot expecting things to slow down in new year, when would you expect fed to start cutting interest rates? >> -- great question. i think they will going to watch two things watch the inflation rate, core inflation rate if that gets down below or close to 3% inclined to ease on fact down this will carrier forward especially as, that will influence the cut the first a really bad season as talking here with retail sales, looks like, unemployment rising economy slowing under a lot of

pressure to raise to lower rates even within committee i think that is part of it so, you know depending how inflation comes down next year, i think will influence them finally you have often issue on your hands with norms debt has to be issued that is going to put i know down right now overtime should put upward pressure on a yield curve as 8 hundred billion per quarter, driving out some private sector that will put pressure on the fed to lower rates to counter that, reenter support mechanism for federal government debt issuance every quarter every month as it goes forward i think it will hit sometime next year but if they don't get inflation number down, raising rates later they've got to be very judicious how fast they bring rates down, in the coming year

so i would say second quarter third quarter may start toying with idea bringing rates down. >> louis navellier how does that square away in terms of your investing, we're talking about you probably riding the rally into year-end next year optimism around holidays, what are you looking for, as an indicator for you to pivot? >> well there's a leadership problem, right now, what i am really just trying to lock in on stocks, you unfortunately, the market will probably get more narrow as we get higher i can only buy from five sectors right now i wouldn't be surprised, if come april i am down to four sectors i don't see breadth power expanding like we want it is a very, very narrow market. >> what are the sectors? >> semiconductors computing

energy stocks refiners a int. >> i disagree with, american yenning newte owns a lot of press conference i don't own oil i feel a range trade buy at 65 sell at 95, so kind of a no man's lands backing off but you get to you make a really interesting point you are reallying on long four sectors, i am looking for this thing, to broaden out, and to date because of rates all the high risks stuff has been awful from small caps, to clean energy, to the ipo index to biotechnology, the ark o innovation etf struggled as well, what gets this thing to

broaden out. >> how fast money changes hands business you households are pinched higher rate environment upper 20% don't have debt the baby boomers, outside of those everybody else is struggling, that is why millennials aren't buying homes. maria: look at mortgage rates did i step on you finishing your thought earlier? please continue. i thought you asked my a different question, sorry. no. i'm sorry, mortgage rates? yes. >> what do you want to say about mortgage rates louis said hung in people not buying homes. >> i am no tt sure many people other than top of the pyramid is buying homes right now mortgages very expensive, the

-- under writing standards, stricterer banking industry is vulnerable -- pulling back, and i think, right now it is very difficult to apply homes at mortgage rates i think that is going to continue. >> that is part of the slowdown coming putting pressure on fed sooner to lower rates than later, balancing, they have they know, if they ease too soon they know they risk reigniting inflation they have that trade-off trying to balance i think, as time goes, if disinflation continues, there are going to when you get close to 3% core going to be yes, we can cut rates now. >> i mean, you have pointed out weak spots in this mack store, even when we've got headline i want to get your take on that

every time we look at the jobs numbers it has been good jobs and looks like people are so confident you have the job to increase their spending by also focused on the household survey this is something different, isn't that right. >> it does the jobs are not as plentiful as they are presented one report and we are seeing more layoffs, things are slowing that's a big factor, they have been able to see the job market is stronger to keep the retire for longer because that receipt and the job numbers look less vigorous in the unemployment number does continue to rise and the argument will go away and they will feel more pressure to bring it down, even though i see the longer-term yields coming

down i think that's temporary because the amount of debt that has to be issued by the federal government has to credit the private sector that will raise interest rates in the future and that will cause more difficulties for the fed going forward and putting more pressure and to be active in lowering rates and easy enough on the physical side for the government. especially in an election year. maria: great point stacy of walmart and macy's, what are your expectations on those two they could be market movers. >> i think walmart will continue to benefit from food inflation and the ability to pass on as cost are coming onto the consumer continuing to gain market share, there are over 50% food so huge beneficiary in that traffic they get into been doing a great job at executing, macy's i think you might fall into another target which is not as bad as expectation, easy compares, however, in the long term i won't go near it i think

the department stores including nordstrom is the decline that will not change anytime soon so to avoid those in some of the other numbers coming up that it could be really important as we saw the huge rally and interest-rate retail socks like williams-sonoma, the homebuilders, williams-sonoma is reporting on thursday and the reality of the situation will be quite different than the release that we seen in the stock movements. maria: it's a very bifurcated market isn't it? the. >> it is you just heard louis say he is long energy and tech and not much else because not much else is participated. maria: a really great conversation we appreciate your time, thomas hoenig, louis, joe concha, thank you very much, great conversation, we have a market off of the highs this morning we are 30 minutes away from the opening bell, the dow industrial up 75, had been up 150 right after the numbers in the ppi and the retail sales number came ou