Previewing the East Cambridgeshire and Waverley by-elections of 18th April 2024
“All the right votes, but not necessarily in the right order”
Two by-elections on 18th April 2024:
Ely West
East Cambridgeshire council; caused by the resignation of Liberal Democrat councillor Robert Pitt.
Last Thursday’s column focused on two wards with present or past Lib Dem strength. This week it’s more of the same as we start in the cathedral city of Ely. This lies next to the River Great Ouse on one of the few areas of high and dry ground in the fens of Cambridgeshire; effectively, Ely was an island next to the River Great Ouse. The city was originally a religious centre, with the first Ely Abbey being founded in 673 by St Etheldreda (or Audrey, or Æthelthryth), daughter of King Anna of East Anglia. The modern Ely Cathedral now stands on the site of that abbey, and its size and splendour indicates just how much money there was in the fens in mediaeval times.
While the monks served God within the Abbey, the people of the city without were also looking to make a profit — and their practices for doing this are preserved in our vocabulary. From the twelfth century an annual seven-day fair was held in Ely around St Audrey (or Etheldreda, or Æthelthryth)’s day on 23rd June. The Venerable Bede recounted that Æthelthryth (or Etheldreda, or Audrey) had died of a neck tumour; she had worn heavy necklaces in her youth, and she ascribed the tumour to God relieving her of her guilt for such youthful vanity. Many centuries later, St Audrey’s fair became notorious for the sale of tacky necklaces made from brightly-coloured silk. From this the word “tawdry” — from “St Audrey” — gradually entered the English language, originally to describe the necklaces themselves as “tawdry lace”, and then as a generic word for anything that looks cheap and gaudy.
Following the dissolution of Ely Abbey and its conversion into a cathedral, Ely went into a bit of a decline until the railways came in 1845. The city is a major railway junction in East Anglia, with lines fanning from here in five different directions — including south to Cambridge. The recent opening of Cambridge North railway station next to a large science park has made Ely an attractive location for commuters.
From 1889 to 1964 the relatively high ground of the Isle of Ely gave its name to a county, which was one of up to four historic counties (depending on how you count the Soke of Peterborough) which are now part of the modern Cambridgeshire. Because of this, there was until 1983 an Isle of Ely parliamentary seat. That was a famous Liberal by-election gain in 1973 following the death of Conservative MP Sir Harry Legge-Bourke (grandfather of the former royal nanny Tiggy Pettifer, as she is now). Mind, the Lib Dems might now want to forget that given that their winning candidate was the broadcaster, chef, dog food salesman and (it turned out) child sexual abuser Clement Freud, who went on to serve as an MP until 1987.
The name of Ely disappeared from the parliamentary map in 1983, but it will return at the next general election in the form of the Ely and East Cambridgeshire constituency. This is a redrawn version of the South East Cambridgeshire seat held by the Culture Secretary Lucy Frazer, who enjoyed a large majority in 2019.
This new parliamentary seat has similar boundaries to the area of East Cambridgeshire council, which was one of the few bright spots for the Conservatives in the 2023 local elections: East Cambridgeshire returned 15 Conservative and 13 Lib Dem councillors, exactly the same numbers as in 2019, meaning that the Liberal Democrats fell short of gaining one of their top target councils. It probably didn’t help that the county council, which is run by a Lib Dem-led coalition, had plans at the time to introduce congestion charging for the city of Cambridge.
Seven of the 13 Lib Dem councillors in East Cambridgeshire represent the three wards covering the city of Ely. Ely West ward takes in the residential western half of Ely, plus an industrial area around the railway station and some open spaces outside the city’s bypass. The large Lancaster Way business park is included in the ward. The ward is safely Liberal Democrat in local elections, and in 2023 the Lib Dem slate led here with 37% against 23% for Labour and 22% for the Conservatives. Ely West ward is part of the Ely South county council division, which the Lib Dems gained from the Conservatives in 2021.
This by-election will be defended by the Lib Dems following the resignation of Rob Pitt, who stood down from East Cambridgeshire council and the parish-level Ely city council at the beginning of March. He was deputy mayor of Ely at the time of his resignation. Before entering politics Pitt had been a high-ranking military officer who had fought in Iraq and Afghanistan, and served in the Falklands and on counter-violent extremist operations in Africa. He now works as a consultant to the Ministry of Defence, and in these troubled times Pitt’s work has expanded to the point that he no longer has time to satisfy his civic and democratic duties.
Defending for the Lib Dems is somebody who has cabinet expertise, but not in a political sense: Ross Trent is a self-employed cabinet maker who won a by-election to the city council last September in North ward, which is not part of this area. Labour have selected Adam Wilson, who was on their slate here in May 2023 and lost to Trent in that by-election four months later. Another returning candidate from 2023 is the Conservatives’ David Ambrose Smith, who is hoping to return to East Cambridgeshire council: he was a councillor for Littleport from 2011 to 2023, and he still sits on Littleport town council. Those are your three candidates.
Parliamentary constituency: South East Cambridgeshire
Parliamentary constituency (from next general election): Ely and East Cambridgeshire
Cambridgeshire county council division: Ely South
ONS Travel to Work Area: Cambridge
Postcode districts: CB6, CB7
David Ambrose Smith (C)
Ross Trent (LD)
Adam Wilson (Lab)
May 2023 result LD 1405/1324/1272 Lab 848/718/599 C 831/809/747 Grn 401 Ind 282
May 2019 result LD 1380/1330/1308 C 890/868/692 Grn 511 Lab 386/299/297 Ind 354
Previous results in detail
Farnham Castle
Waverley council, Surrey; caused by the resignation of Farnham Residents councillor Heather McClean.
We now travel to what might be the archetype of the Surrey commuter town. Farnham is located on South Western Railway’s Alton branch line, with regular trains to London: but it is also close to the Army town of Aldershot which is just over the border with Hampshire, and as such it is very much part of the military-industrial conurbation centred on the Blackwater valley. The Blackwater Valley towns all run into each other to form a surprisingly large urban area, but this is masked by the fact that the area is administratively divided between Surrey, Hampshire and Berkshire.
The military have been in Farnham for centuries, originally in the form of Farnham Castle which for centuries was a favourite residence of the bishops of Winchester. One former bishop who lived here in the fifteenth century was Cardinal Henry Beaufort, who is best known for presiding at the trial of Joan of Arc. Despite being slighted in the Civil War the castle did see some military use afterwards, as in the Second World War it was a centre for training artists in military camouflage. Today Farnham Castle is a venue for weddings, training, conferences and other events, and in 1974 a South African exile called Thabo Mbeki was married here: many years later, he would go on to succeed Nelson Mandela as president of his country.
There was a Farnham parliamentary constituency from 1918 to 1983, when the seat was redrawn with the new name of South West Surrey. The latter seat has returned three successive Conservative Cabinet ministers to parliament: Maurice Macmillan until his death in 1983, then Virginia Bottomley until her retirement in 2005, and the present Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt since then.
Hunt will be the last MP for South West Surrey, which is being split into two new seats by the Boundary Commission. He is seeking re-election in Godalming and Ash, but rather more of his former electors will go into a completely new constituency called Farnham and Bordon which will straddle the Surrey-Hampshire border. The Conservatives’ Farnham and Bordon branch have selected Gregory Stafford, brother of the Rother Valley MP Alexander Stafford, as their next parliamentary candidate: Gregory currently sits on Ealing council in London where he led the Conservative group from 2014 to 2022, and he works in the NHS as director of a clinical improvement programme.
Farnham and Bordon should be a safe Conservative seat for Gregory Stafford even given the party’s current dire polling and their awful recent form in Surrey local elections. Farnham is the largest town in the Waverley district where the Conservatives are now the third-largest group on the council: the 2023 elections here returned 22 Lib Dem councillors, 13 Farnham Residents, 10 Conservatives, 2 Labour (one of whom is the former Nottinghamshire MP Nick Palmer), 2 independents and 1 Green. A coalition administration of everybody except the Conservatives and Lib Dems is running the show. The Lib Dems are one down at the moment following the death of councillor Andrew Law in January; his seat has actually been vacant longer than this one in Farnham Castle, but the local Lib Dems have delayed that by-election until 2nd May when there will be a county-wide poll for Surrey police and crime commissioner.
As this column has recounted on two previous occasions, the Farnham Residents have been the main party in Farnham’s local elections for some time now. They won one of Castle ward’s two seats in 2015, gained the other from the Conservatives at a by-election in 2016 (Andrew’s Previews 2016, page 162) and then held a further by-election two years later (Andrew’s Previews 2018, page 184). On revised boundaries for the 2023 election, the Farnham Residents had a 50–35 lead over Labour in the town-centre Farnham Castle ward. The Residents also hold the Farnham Central division on Surrey county council.
The Farnham Residents will have to defend this by-election, the third here in eight years, following the resignation of their councillor Heather McClean in March. McClean was in her first year of office, having topped the poll in Farnham Castle ward in 2023. The reason for McClean’s resignation was not publicised, but it looks likely to be work-related because she took up a new job as an academic at UCL at the same time.
Defending for the Farnham Residents is Alan Earwaker, who is the mayor of Farnham and already represents this ward on the town council. Labour have reselected John Gaskell, who was runner-up here in 2023 and is unhappy with proposed long-term roadworks in the town centre. Also standing are Aly Fitch for the Conservatives and Theresa Meredith-Hardy for the Lib Dems — last year there was an electoral pact between the Lib Dems and the Farnham Residents, but clearly this has now broken down.
Parliamentary constituency: South West Surrey
Parliamentary constituency (from next general election): Farnham and Bordon
Surrey county council division: Farnham Central
ONS Travel to Work Area: Guildford and Aldershot
Postcode districts: GU9, GU10
Alan Earwaker (Farnham Residents)
Aly Fitch (C)
John Gaskell (Lab)
Theresa Meredith-Hardy (LD)
May 2023 result Farnham Residents 621/575 Lab 429 C 188/172
Previous results in detail
If you enjoyed these previews, there are many more like them — going back to 2016 — in the Andrew’s Previews books, which are available to buy now (link). You can also support future previews by donating to the Local Elections Archive Project (link).
Andrew Teale
