MoA - Ukraine Open Thread 2022-62
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May 08, 2022

Ukraine Open Thread 2022-62

Only news & views related to the Ukraine conflict ...

Posted by b on May 8, 2022 at 14:04 UTC | Permalink

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Transcript of President Putin's Victory Day 2022 speech (from kremlin.ru)

President of Russia Vladimir Putin:

"Fellow Russian citizens,

Dear veterans,

Comrade soldiers and seamen, sergeants and sergeant majors, midshipmen and warrant officers,

Comrade officers, generals and admirals,

I congratulate you on the Day of Great Victory!

The defence of our Motherland when its destiny was at stake has always been sacred. It was the feeling of true patriotism that Minin and Pozharsky’s militia stood up for the Fatherland, soldiers went on the offensive at the Borodino Field and fought the enemy outside Moscow and Leningrad, Kiev and Minsk, Stalingrad and Kursk, Sevastopol and Kharkov.

Today, as in the past, you are fighting for our people in Donbass, for the security of our Motherland, for Russia.

May 9, 1945 has been enshrined in world history forever as a triumph of the united Soviet people, its cohesion and spiritual power, an unparalleled feat on the front lines and on the home front.

Victory Day is intimately dear to all of us. There is no family in Russia that was not burnt by the Great Patriotic War. Its memory never fades. On this day, children, grandchildren and great-grandchildren of the heroes march in an endless flow of the Immortal Regiment. They carry photos of their family members, the fallen soldiers who remained young forever, and the veterans who are already gone.

We take pride in the unconquered courageous generation of the victors, we are proud of being their successors, and it is our duty to preserve the memory of those who defeated Nazism and entrusted us with being vigilant and doing everything to thwart the horror of another global war.

Therefore, despite all controversies in international relations, Russia has always advocated the establishment of an equal and indivisible security system which is critically needed for the entire international community.

Last December we proposed signing a treaty on security guarantees. Russia urged the West to hold an honest dialogue in search for meaningful and compromising solutions, and to take account of each other’s interests. All in vain. NATO countries did not want to heed us, which means they had totally different plans. And we saw it.

Another punitive operation in Donbass, an invasion of our historic lands, including Crimea, was openly in the making. Kiev declared that it could attain nuclear weapons. The NATO bloc launched an active military build-up on the territories adjacent to us.

Thus, an absolutely unacceptable threat to us was steadily being created right on our borders. There was every indication that a clash with neo-Nazis and Banderites backed by the United States and their minions was unavoidable.

Let me repeat, we saw the military infrastructure being built up, hundreds of foreign advisors starting work, and regular supplies of cutting-edge weaponry being delivered from NATO countries. The threat grew every day.

Russia launched a pre-emptive strike at the aggression. It was a forced, timely and the only correct decision. A decision by a sovereign, strong and independent country.

The United States began claiming their exceptionalism, particularly after the collapse of the Soviet Union, thus denigrating not just the entire world but also their satellites, who have to pretend not to see anything, and to obediently put up with it.

But we are a different country. Russia has a different character. We will never give up our love for our Motherland, our faith and traditional values, our ancestors’ customs and respect for all peoples and cultures.

Meanwhile, the West seems to be set to cancel these millennia-old values. Such moral degradation underlies the cynical falsifications of World War II history, escalating Russophobia, praising traitors, mocking their victims’ memory and crossing out the courage of those who won the Victory through suffering.

We are aware that US veterans who wanted to come to the parade in Moscow were actually forbidden to do so. But I want them to know: We are proud of your deeds and your contribution to our common Victory.

We honour all soldiers of the allied armies – the Americans, the English, the French, Resistance fighters, brave soldiers and partisans in China – all those who defeated Nazism and militarism.

Comrades,

Donbass militia alongside with the Russian Army are fighting on their land today, where princes Svyatoslav and Vladimir Monomakh’s retainers, solders under the command of Rumyantsev and Potemkin, Suvorov and Brusilov crushed their enemies, where Great Patriotic War heroes Nikolai Vatutin, Sidor Kovpak and Lyudmila Pavlichenko stood to the end.

I am addressing our Armed Forces and Donbass militia. You are fighting for our Motherland, its future, so that nobody forgets the lessons of World War II, so that there is no place in the world for torturers, death squads and Nazis.

Today, we bow our heads to the sacred memory of all those who lost their lives in the Great Patriotic War, the memories of the sons, daughters, fathers, mothers, grandfathers, husbands, wives, brothers, sisters, relatives and friends.

We bow our heads to the memory of the Odessa martyrs who were burned alive in the House of Trade Unions in May 2014, to the memory of the old people, women and children of Donbass who were killed in atrocious and barbaric shelling by neo-Nazis. We bow our heads to our fighting comrades who died a brave death in the righteous battle – for Russia.

I declare a minute of silence.

(A minute of silence.)


The loss of each officer and soldier is painful for all of us and an irretrievable loss for the families and friends. The government, regional authorities, enterprises and public organisations will do everything to wrap such families in care and help them. Special support will be given to the children of the killed and wounded comrades-in-arms. The Presidential Executive Order to this effect was signed today.

I wish a speedy recovery to the wounded soldiers and officers, and I thank doctors, paramedics, nurses and staff of military hospitals for their selfless work. Our deepest gratitude goes to you for saving each life, oftentimes sparing no thought for yourselves under shelling on the frontlines.

Comrades,

Soldiers and officers from many regions of our enormous Motherland, including those who arrived straight from Donbass, from the combat area, are standing now shoulder-to-shoulder here, on Red Square.

We remember how Russia’s enemies tried to use international terrorist gangs against us, how they tried to seed inter-ethnic and religious strife so as to weaken us from within and divide us. They failed completely.

Today, our warriors of different ethnicities are fighting together, shielding each other from bullets and shrapnel like brothers.

This is where the power of Russia lies, a great invincible power of our united multi-ethnic nation.

You are defending today what your fathers, grandfathers and great-grandfathers fought for. The wellbeing and security of their Motherland was their top priority in life. Loyalty to our Fatherland is the main value and a reliable foundation of Russia’s independence for us, their successors, too.

Those who crushed Nazism during the Great Patriotic War showed us an example of heroism for all ages. This is the generation of victors, and we will always look up to them.

Glory to our heroic Armed Forces!

For Russia! For Victory!

Hooray!"

Posted by: Andrew Celestina | May 9 2022 11:40 utc | 201

CharlesLutherThanos | May 9 2022 9:27 utc | 176

https://www.yahoo.com/news/putin-doubling-down-offensive-russias-115519724.html
"Putin is 'doubling down' with new offensive by Russia's flagging army because he can't afford to lose, CIA director says"

Basic rule of thumb for western propaganda is projection.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 9 2022 11:41 utc | 202

Soooo, no speculation about any other reasons (besides official) for cancellation of the aerial part of the parade?

My crazy take on this is that NATO can cover Moscow with some sort of EW systems that can disturb comm and nav so you dont want to fly formations over your capital city in those conditions... Thou storms do fall in the same category of unwanted events...

Posted by: Lurker | May 9 2022 11:42 utc | 203

Lurker@200 completely removed any chance of a kama kazie pilot hiding 'behind' the display planes and making an attack. Anything in the air within several hundred miles gets shot down, mind you, it's not like some Orcs with boxcutters could take control of civilian plans and cause major damage.....like that's ever happened.... anywhere.

Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | May 9 2022 11:56 utc | 204

Posted by: CharlesLutherThanos | May 9 2022 10:48 utc | 190

I think you misunderstand what I was trying to say. The neocolonialists or internationalists do not wish to occupy territory or even to invade or indulge in large scale military activity but by proxy wars and regime change will alter society and rentier capitalism ideology becomes acceptable under their influence. After all Russia is halfway there. Many who are socialists are taking the side of Russia in its current form which is full of rampant oligarchy and exploitatitive capitalism. And irony of ironies, the west first turned on their own capitalist class first to apply sanctions on them hoping that they will then be able to put insider pressure.

Posted by: Orage | May 9 2022 12:19 utc | 205

Please note that the Russian Communist Party is one of the largest on Planet Earth, and it's a sign of how democratic Russia is that it is allowed to survive and contest elections (no such thing would be permissible in the UK or the US. The last time the American Communist Party looked likely to achieve breakthroughs in the 'democratic' system of the US, the State simply shut it down, and no liberal protested).

Because of the Americans' attack/war on Russia, Russia is going to have to turn away from neoliberalism, away from 'globalisation' and it will, of necessity, be forced to turn towards China, the most democratic (i.e. Communist) country on Planet Earth. This will obviously have a positive impact on the Russian polity, especially as the Fourth Reich (the US) becomes increasingly racist, fascist and totalitarian (cf also Europe).

Posted by: Hidari | May 9 2022 12:30 utc | 206

Posted by: Andrew Celestina | May 9 2022 11:40 utc | 198

Thank you for posting Putin's speech. I love the emphasis on history to explain today's situation. In contrast the typical Westerner hardly remembers what he vigorously spewed hatred for yesterday, and his future vision certainly doesn't go further than the next quarterly financial report.

Posted by: Sarmat | May 9 2022 12:35 utc | 207

I keep looking for more information on the alleged capture of Canadian and NATO Lieutenant General Trevor Cadieu but can't find anything. It's been over a week. This is what I've got on the episode.

https://johnplatinumgoss.com/2022/05/09/lieutenant-general-trevor-cadieu-and-azovstal/

Posted by: John Goss | May 9 2022 8:08 utc | 168

Your blog post was solid and the timeline you provide supplies the reasons why he did not likely ever make it to Mariupol. That he would then have immediately been put in charge of the alleged bio-lab there is just nonsense.

The more likely scenario is that he is working in a NATO facility in Romania or Turkey.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | May 9 2022 12:40 utc | 208

Posted by: Andrew Celestina | May 9 2022 11:40 utc | 198

"This is where the power of Russia lies, a great invincible power of our united multi-ethnic nation.

Glory to our heroic Armed Forces!

For Russia! For Victory!

Hooray!"
"

Wish I lived in a country whose leader could give such an intelligent, impassioned, patriotic, moral and rousing speech.

Such things are rare in world history. In an Empire of Lies they are impossible.

Posted by: Scorpion | May 9 2022 12:52 utc | 209

Good read from Greece

https://warnews247.gr/asyllipti-tragodia-oi-oukranoi-chanoun-1-000-andres-ana-24-ores-evrexe-iskander-k-stin-odisso-isopedothike-vasi-misthoforon/

Russia hit a merc hotel in Odessa....sounds like some Beavers got skinned. Took out most of the recent arms deliveries also.

Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | May 9 2022 12:55 utc | 210

John Goss | May 9 2022 8:08 utc | 168

Zakharova mentioned the subject but neither confirmed or denied. Kadyrov in his telegram channel said they had delivered a big fish to Putin and there were four more big fish of the shark variety. I copied and pasted the machine translation from his telegram channel to a comment thread here around March 4. That has now been wiped from his telegram account but still many references to it on twitter.
After the last lot of civilians/hostages were evacuated Zelensky stated that all civilians were out of the steelworks which struck me as odd.

My guess is the other big fish are either out of the steelworks or dead. Possibly they gave themselves up, but it is also possible they were used as bargaining chips to get the hostages out. Four big fish exchanged for the lives of the 250 or so civilians that were in the bunkers at the steelworks?

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 9 2022 13:08 utc | 211

Posted by: K | May 9 2022 11:36 utc | 196
I am very appreciative of your answer but will try to explain why I disagree.
"So the ties between Russia and China run deeper than westerners can appreciate with our dog eat dog phosophy. They are both very old collectivist societies, Russia has been communist before and is witnessing the absolute decadence and depravity of the liberal capitalist system breaking down before their eyes."

Russia may have been communist before but its break up with communism has been extremely disruptive and whereas there is a tradition of collectivism, this has now been demolished and since 1990 Russia has effectively been a capitalist society with a prominent and influential class of oligarchs. Although Putin has reversed some of this he has not entirely managed to rein in the oligarchs and the ordinary Russian is not living a socialist paradise. Even during the days of the USSR there was a longstanding standoff between the two communist countries.
"Of course this incorporates trade and defense issues, but I think its a serious mistake to presume that either China or Russia made their alliance based solely or even primarily on $$$"
I have not said or implied that this was only a financial alliance. It is mainly one of mutual self preservation against an outside threat. Other financial considerations are beneficial but in my view, secondary and complimentary.
"Also your statement "The old Marxian exploitative capitalism whereby the capitalist owns the means of production in order to make goods is no longer needed" doesn't make sense since Marx wrote about the workers owning the means of production not the capitalists, so I'm not sure what you meant by this."
Excuse my garbled writing. What I meant was that the old style capitalism that Marx described and asked workers to unite and fight against was that of the capitalist owning the means of production and exploiting labour to extract added value and convert that to vast profits. Current US and UK style capitalism does away with workers and makes money out of investments in others and in usery.
"As to leftists addressing this issue with clarity there are many eloquent socialist/Marxist leftists on this blog who regularly post excellent commentary. From my perspective even though Russia is not currently communist, they also aren't imperialist or colonial so less like the US and UK, I have no expertise to make predictions but my hunch is that Russia will become more of a conservative socialist democracy perhaps in a unique way that has not been done before."
I have no doubt that this is the case. But one of the indicators of whether something is socialist or not is whether it will benefit the working class struggle for decent wages and there is doubt that this war will whatever the outcome.

Posted by: Orage | May 9 2022 13:10 utc | 212

May 9 Victory Day celebrations in Kherson and Melitopol (videos). Finally people can freely celebrate the victory of their fathers and grandfathers over Nazism, as they used to do from 1945 up until a few years ago, when Ukrainian authorities started gradually morphing the May 9 Victory Day into May 8 “Remembrance and Reconciliation” Day and Ukrainian nationalists started assaulting Red Army veterans during the celebrations.

Posted by: S | May 9 2022 13:11 utc | 213

K@196
Follow the pseudonym:
"..Alfred Richard Orage[p] (22 January 1873 – 6 November 1934) was a British influential figure in socialist politics and modernist culture, now best known for editing the magazine The New Age before the First World War. While he was working as a schoolteacher in Leeds he pursued various interests, including Plato, the Independent Labour Party and theosophy. In 1900 he met Holbrook Jackson and three years later they co-founded the Leeds Arts Club, which became a centre of modernist culture in Britain.[1] After 1924, Orage went to France to work with George Gurdjieff and was then sent to the United States by Gurdjieff to raise funds and lecture. He translated several of Gurdjieff's works...." Wikip.
Orage was the editor of The New Age.

Posted by: bevin | May 9 2022 13:16 utc | 214

@208

'What I meant was that the old style capitalism that Marx described and asked workers to unite and fight against was that of the capitalist owning the means of production and exploiting labour to extract added value and convert that to vast profits. '

One of the reason that Michael Hudson is one of the few Marxist economists still talking sense is that he has read more than Volume One of Capital. If you go ahead to Volume 3, Marx talks about financialization etc, and what he says is much more of relevance to today's world.

CF here

https://michael-hudson.com/2021/07/finance-capitalism-versus-industrial-capitalism-the-rentier-resurgence-and-takeover/


This is why some people talk about our current socio-economic set up as really being a form of neo-feudalism instead of capitalism 'proper', where the mass of people are really serfs, controlled and constrained by debt bondage, while oligarchs at the top, who have made their money fro usury, debt, speculation etc. are really feudal overlords, like kings and landowners in the 12th century, who don't make anything but simply extract money from pre-existing entities (land, the stock market).

Posted by: Hidari | May 9 2022 13:22 utc | 215

Paul Greenwood @183

Ah yes, it seems my plea for an absence of patronising responses fell on stoney ground.

Shoot from the hip and don’t bother reading what I actually wrote, i.e. the main gist and not just where the commas should go.

Posted by: echelon | May 9 2022 13:27 utc | 216

Posted by: CharlesLutherThanos | May 9 2022 2:54 utc | 134

You can’t separate geopolitics from economics. It simply doesn’t work that way, especially now. Europe’s economy (the EU) is dominated by German industry running a trade surplus which puts many other European countries at economic disadvantage. But German industry is based heavily on cheap Russian gas. The companies (all fully international) can move but that doesn’t help German workers and all the economic activity that they generate.

I’m certainly not suggesting that europe falls into an abyss it cannot be extricated from. But I question what the US can provide Europe. We buy our stuff from China. Also, the EU was originally an economic union turned political. It’s highly unlikely that the political survives economic turmoil. Already the EU is suggesting that consensus will be thrown away for majority because a few nations refuse to get on board with banning Russian hydrocarbons. Nations leaving the EU is a distinct possibility and that is a geopolitical problem for the US.

While it is clear that the geopolitical goal of the US was to split Europe (especially Germany) from Russia, it is not at all clear that things are going according to plan. I maintain that the plan was to secure the gas fields in the Donbas for fracking and supplying europe with non-Russian gas. It’s the only explanation I’ve found that makes sense given that every oil/gas producing power says that Russian supplies cannot be replaced with existing production.

But even in that plan, forcing Russia and China together has been recognized by US foreign policy as disastrous since at least the end of WWII. Splitting them was a primary goal of US foreign policy for decades. Then it wasn’t economic so much as military geopolitical. Now it is both. This would all be different if the US was still an industrial powerhouse, but it isn’t. It’s a declining power with a financialized economy that’s brittle.

If Ukraine took the Donbas and Russia could be destabilized to the point of collapse/regime change and if a new regime was super western friendly, then the plan of splitting Europe from Russia works. But that’s a plan based on best case scenarios that has already failed and it currently looks like any hope of a turnaround is fading very fast. The Russian economy was supposed to be collapsed already.

That europe could have been the prize doesn’t mean that is now. Nor does it mean that “Europe” will survive in its present form over the medium term. The article’s author is using a lot of unexplained assumptions and so are you. But once the assumptions break down into unpredictable variables, the analysis from them fails as a predictive model.

Posted by: Lex | May 9 2022 13:29 utc | 217

Posted by: Orage | May 9 2022 13:10 utc | 208

Russia and China have been steadily developing themselves into a symbiote, an alliance featuring mutual interdependence by design. Recently they have started openly proclaiming this.

This is not an ideological union necessarily though clearly they share a vision of how states should function in relation to other states. More geographical, situational and united in a common need to flourish outside the command and control of a unipolar wannabe.

Doubtless this western generated war is in response to this powerful Eurasian alliance. They will either break it by humiliating Russia somehow - or worse - or they are creating chaos in order negotiate terms for how things proceed in the emerging multipolar Era which this alliance has already made seemingly inevitable.

Posted by: Scorpion | May 9 2022 13:32 utc | 218

I have read the G7 Statement today after their meeting yesterday. They accuse Russia of "breaching the international rules based order". I didn't think we had an international rules based order rather, that the UN is founded on International Law not rules. This is the speak of the NWO which, as far as I can tell, is not yet in place and Russia and China have given it one massive punch in the face. The other thing the Leaders at the G7 stated it was 'an honour' to have Zelensky there. So, they are honouring a liar, a thief, a tin pot nazi dictator and a totally incompetent fool. Shame on them. Mind you, with BoJo there, he's in the same league as Zelensky - 2 clowns but dangerous ones. BTW I thought Putin's speech today was simple, great, relevant and true. I watched the March of the Immortal Regiment and was moved to tears. Go Russia, Go!!

Posted by: Jo Dominich | May 9 2022 13:41 utc | 219

"...Very likely, what Europe can deliver to the United States would exceed what Russia can deliver to China, so that a loss of Russia to China would be more than compensated by the gains from a tightening of American hegemony over Western Europe..."
I understand that to be his own assessment. Oldhippie and I have questioned it.
juliania@100

That is where I think that Streeck is wrong. And you are both right.
The reverse is true. Europe has relatively little value to the US, but preventing it from completing the integration of Eurasia- in which Europe has much more value- is important.
BRI works and is unbeatable if it ranges from Vladivostock to Lisbon. If it only reaches to Minsk or Odessa it is diminished.
Am I being clear? The point is that the US just wants to keep Europe out of Eurasia. It has no idea, as the last seventy years has shown and current events prove, what, in any constructive sense, to do with it.

Posted by: bevin | May 9 2022 13:42 utc | 220

Natalia Usmanova was interviewed almost 2 minutes by a journalist where Reuters only showed 1min including a framing that Russia caused damage and agony and that she is so terrified.

When you listen to everything she said, she calls out the Asov as the bad guys.

A very good example on how western media is manipulating the facts supporting a certain narrative.

Posted by: Rasta @184
----------------------------

This is nothing new here. It's the Western MSM's tradition: "manufacturing narratives".

Check the full video of "iconic" Tiananmen Tank Man, which shows the tanks were actually leaving Tiananmen, trying to avoid the Tank Man and the Tank Man acutally climb onto the top of the tank .

Also check out:

- non-existing "Tiananmen Massacre" confirmed by the cables from American Embassy in Beijing ;

- Black info and media gullibility: creation of the Tiananmen myth;

- CBS finally admits "There Was No Tiananmen Square Massacre"

Yet, New York Times' journalist Nicolas Kristof won the most prestigious Pulitz award for his reporting about Tiananmen Square Massacre. The gullible Westerners still hold memoerials for this non-existing massacre year after year.

This tells you how powerful and influencial Western MSM is in terms of manufacturing narratives to brainwash its audience.

Posted by: lulu | May 9 2022 13:43 utc | 221

Richard Head@187

Thanks for the full 2-minute video interview of Natalia Usmanova! We should spread it to as many people as we can to wake up those who still in total belief that the Western MSM is trustworthy.

Posted by: lulu | May 9 2022 13:47 utc | 222

@ Andrew Celestina | May 9 2022 11:40 utc | 198

Warms thanks for contributing the transcript of Putin's speech.

Posted by: Aleph_Null | May 9 2022 13:53 utc | 223

When criticism is a complement.

DemoN-azi website The Hill throws mud at Trump with an article
about a book written by Mark Esper, the former Secretary of Defense under President Trump.

How much mud sticks depends upon how much you lean DemoN-azi (Democrat-Nazi).

For example, from the article:

https://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/media/3481518-esper-recalls-outlandish-trump-foreign-policy-proposals-in-new-memoir/


Mark Esper, the former Secretary of Defense under President Trump, says that the former president proposed a number of “outlandish” foreign policy proposals while he was in the White House,...

In a new excerpt, shared by Politico, Esper wrote that shortly after he was hired to be the new Pentagon chief in 2019, Trump was railing against NATO and corruption in Ukraine, two personal issues that the rest of the national security and foreign policy team tried to tamp down because they weren’t considered leading concerns at the time.

The Hill article references another article by Politico, another DemoNazi website.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/05/09/mark-esper-memoir-taliban-trump-afghanistan-00030810


When he [Trump] questioned, “Why are we even giving them this stuff [security assistance] in the first place,” I ran through a series of arguments that failed time and time again: deterrence of Russian aggression; showing Moscow our commitment to our partners; and aiding a democracy under siege. I then pivoted to the fact that “Congress appropriated the funding, and we don’t really have a choice” to not release it. “It is the law, Mr. President,” I said bluntly. With his arms folded in front of him as he leaned forward into his desk, he was silent. He didn’t seem to care.

I believe Esper's is lying to the President here. It is very much *not* "the law". The President sets foreign policy not Congress.

Posted by: librul | May 9 2022 13:58 utc | 224

https://mobile.twitter.com/OSINT88/status/1523403272517976064?t=Zy8syOL2CEZ83OPt22s1Gw&s=09

Four hours ago got out of bed and saw this information posted in three different feeds. The version above is as close to an origin as I can find. If this was real would expect it to be everywhere.

Suspect that is a real document that does not mean what someone claims it means.

Tired of information operations.

Posted by: Oldhippie | May 9 2022 14:03 utc | 225

AC @ 198; Many thanks for the posting the Putin speech..

Posted by: vetinLA | May 9 2022 14:03 utc | 226

Posted by: librul | May 9 2022 13:58 utc | 220

the republican establishment is every bit as much pro nazi as the democrat establishment. the uniparty.

Posted by: pretzelattack | May 9 2022 14:12 utc | 227

i mean Mark Esper is an example. Trump was in some ways probably as easy to manipulate as Biden.

Posted by: pretzelattack | May 9 2022 14:13 utc | 228

Posted by: Jo Dominich | May 9 2022 13:41 utc | 215

"I have read the G7 Statement today after their meeting yesterday. They accuse Russia of "breaching the international rules based order".
"

If the G7 sez Russia broke the rools, then she did cuz them's the rools wot the G7 sez!

Posted by: Scorpion | May 9 2022 14:14 utc | 229

A short film showing the start of a nuclear war. Appropriate viewing for all.

https://youtu.be/dtblQTbG0Ek

Posted by: morongobill | May 9 2022 14:18 utc | 230

Why US Strategy Will Fail

bevin | May 8 2022 19:03 utc | 52 introduced the following:


the US has decided on a long term bloc strategy which will have two key features, apart from guaranteeing a permanent arms economy to hobble Eurasia's plan to escape poverty by investing in peaceful pursuits and social infrastructure.

The first is the 'weakening' of Russia

The second is to tie up Europe

This is a re-run of Kennan's 1947 foreign policy containment strategy.

In 1947 this strategy worked as:
1) US benefited from seizure of German intellectual property
-- also UK technical advances (Radar, cryptography, early computer tech, operations research, wizard war)

2) Rest of world productive capacity destroyed
-- US gained global markets
-- US FDI to supplement US production (notably Canada, later ROW)
-- Assisted by Marshall Plan transfers (Give them money to buy our exports)

3) US GI bill resulted in vast improvement in human capital
-- Assisted by high calibre educated immigrant inflows fleeing the devastation in Europe.

4) US control of International organizations World Bank, IMF, UN, etc.

5) War delivered Fossil Fuel (FF) mechanization. US greatest global FF producer
and therefore best able to benefit from this in form of highway system, supply chain transport, the "vacation," the motel, fast food, the shopping mall, and suburban development.

6) Baby boom resulted in massive investment in social infrastructure: schools, hospitals, bridges, roadways, etc. Increase in internal labour market demand.

7) Cultural hegemony (coca cola, later McDonalds et al) rock and roll, literature, and art leadership. The US was an attractive leading edge society and offered expanding opportunity to its domestic population and to immigrants. A rising tide which lifted all boats.

8) Creation of the "enemy" and the offer of a US nuclear shield. I suggest this only came about because of the foregoing. PAX Americana did not create the modern world. WWII gave birth to "modernity," the US was the leading beneficiary, and PAX Americana was an outcome, not a cause.

Today
1) Technical advances more evenly distributed. Norway makes an advanced naval strike missile. Turkey produces advanced drones. Russia and China lead in hypersonics, China leads in AI, communications, high speed rail, EV production, space exploration.

2) Demand shifting to Global South which offers cheap labour and an increasing middle class market. US market is bi-polar with enormous concentration of wealth in top 10% and an eroding middle class. Chinese FDI displacing US.

3) US human capital edge displaced by wokism, poor quality public school system, conformist mediocrity vs meritocracy, focus on job skills in place of how to think. US still attracting high quality immigrants but this may change as US global leadership is increasingly called into question. Bulk of immigration is of low calibre likely to be displaced by AI automation.

4) No change as of yet. But a key concern of RF, China and the Global South going forward. A multi-polar world will demand multi-polar institutions.

5) Need to move away from FF mechanized supply chains to electrification and low emissions supply chains. A complex and rapidly evolving area of debate but includes such things as China's development of pedestrian centred cities linked by high speed levitated rail.

6) US massive immigration intended to compensate for low replacement rate. Immigrant communities have higher birth rates and will form majority population within 18 years or so. This immigration issue, and "wokism" constitute a significant source of social conflict undermining US "melting pot" cultural homogenization. China is centred on Han culture and RF on slavic culture. Global South experiencing the greatest population growth rate and an increasing middle class leading to greater economic opportunity for all as the economic tide goes out in the US.

7) Cultural hegemony in decline. China produces blockbuster movies celebrating its "victory" in the Chosin Reservoir battle. RF will likely deliver a movie on the liberation of Donbass. India is developing its own cultural industry. This trend likely to accelerate and is abetted by the ubiquity of low cost computing and necessary software coupled with Internet distribution channels. Current US cultural hegemony is depended on MSM censorship and cancel culture and is deemed extremely fragile for this reason. Once the public gets to see "behind the curtain" you cannot put the toothpaste back in the tube and social unrest erupts.

8) I argue the US is attempting a return of Kennan's 1947 containment strategy but this attempt will fail as the necessary precursor elements are either not present, or are in decline in the US.

22-2-22 and the SPO will likely go down in history as a major turning point in global history equivalent to 1066, 1789, or 1776. This is dependent on the world surviving to afford us the longue durée. Our surviving the contemporary period is not assured. As for music this is what the future sounds like:
https://youtu.be/b97hqSDRspw
One picture is worth 1,000 songs

Posted by: Sushi | May 9 2022 14:20 utc | 231

From the Streek screed:
"
" It is interesting to note that after more than two months of war Russian gas is still being delivered through Ukrainian pipelines. While the Ukrainian government could shut these down any moment, it does not do so, probably to enable itself and associated oligarchs to continue collecting transit fees. This does not keep Ukraine from demanding that Germany and other countries end their use of Russian gas immediately, in order to no longer finance ‘Putin’s war’.
"

This is yet another example of how something stinks, doesn't add up, makes no sense etc.

The quantum crowd talk about there being different parallel levels of reality. Like with a cell phone there is the circuitry, then there is software, then there is the GUI interface with text, voice etc. The circuitry knows not what the text or video communicate; the software knows neither the circuitry nor the output and so on.

Similarly, there are different levels in national and geopolitical affairs. We tend to see things on one main level, maybe a few more if we have access or technical expertise. But no-one - even the leaders - knows them all.

Meanwhile, nobody is blowing up the pipeline. Of course not....

Posted by: Scorpion | May 9 2022 14:23 utc | 232

@ Roger # 92

That was a solid assumption back when the US was a huge 300+m industrial country with no other country being able to compete following the breakup of the Soviet Union/Warsaw Pact and the bottom falling out in any case from the Russian Federation successor state with no evidence to date that it can recover.

But 20 years after shipping off the industrial base to China now the US has to face a country that is rapidly becoming a peer competitor with a greater population and soon GDP and an authoritarian government with clear goals that can keep a lid on unsustainable cost overruns like we saw run rampant in the US after the fall of the Soviet Union.

Posted by: Altai | May 9 2022 14:33 utc | 233

The Nazi's don't care about civilians, even children for that matter.


"Militants of Ukrainian nationalist battalion have set up a stronghold and a munitions depot in the building of a children’s hospital in Kharkov, Mikhail Mizintsev, chief of Russia’s National Defense Management Center, said on Sunday.

"Militants of nationalist battalions have set up a stronghold and a munitions depot in the building of children’s hospital No22 for infectious diseases in Kharkov," said Mizintsev, also who heads the Russian Joint Coordination Headquarters for Humanitarian Response in Ukraine.""

Posted by: Republicofscotland | May 9 2022 14:38 utc | 234

Sushi I believe that we a getting somewhere. I suspect that b recommended Streeck not as an endorsement of all he wrote but as being provocative and insightful. I agree with the assessment. I also drew attention to Streecks recent articles in the EU and the death of democracy in Europe.
See 216 above to oldhippie and Juliana.
The underlying reality is that the US is a maritime power, with coastal interests wherever the sea leads it whilst China, Russia, Iran are land powers with interior lines. The sort of thing that Mackinder noted.
I suppose this means that Russia must take the Black Sea coast back in the current campaign.
A problem that we haven't discussed here is the dilemma facing the US: it is all very well to keep the war going to 'weaken' Russia, but it could equally well lead to Russia's strengthening. The longer the war goes on the more likely is Russia to keep going west. Had the Ukrainians made peace last week they would very likely have kept Odessa. Had they made peace in February they could have kept-under the not very onerous Minsk conditions, the entire east.
If peace isn't made until June Kiev could come into play.
The US is acting irresponsibly, keeping the war going really does not benefit it at all. It makes the gutter press happy by providing lurid copy. And it keeps the Merchants of Death content as PAC coffer filing time comes up again. But, as in roulette, doubling down means increasing the extent of potential losses.
Have they fallen into a Russian trap?
Excellent music , thanks.

Posted by: bevin | May 9 2022 14:39 utc | 235

Next the Nazi's move into a school.

"Ukrainian troops have organized combat emplacements in a school and a kindergarten in Kramatorsk in the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), Mikhail Mizintsev, chief of Russia’s National Defense Management Center, said on Sunday.

"Combat emplacements of the Ukrainian army have been organized in school No20 and kindergarten No87 in Kramatorsk, the Donetsk People’s Republic. Civilians, residents of the nearby houses are kept by force in the basement premises. Approaches to the buildings have been mined,""

Posted by: Republicofscotland | May 9 2022 14:40 utc | 236

Posted by: oldhippie | May 8 2022 20:46 utc | 71

I’d say the cultural significance of Lvov goes with Cracow and Prague as major cities in 19 century Austro Hungarian empire. Note the none of the 3 had been destroyed during WWII. Somehow the Soviets and the Germans reached and agreement. Warsaw and Berlin had been completely destroyed

Posted by: RJB | May 9 2022 14:43 utc | 237

More Western weapons funneled into Ukraine taken out by the RF.


"Russian high-precision air-to-surface missiles hit Western weapons and military hardware delivered to the Sol railway station, Russian Defense Ministry Spokesman Igor Konashenkov said on Sunday.

"High-precision air-based missiles of the Russian aerospace forces destroyed weapons and military hardware delivered from the United States and Western countries to the sol railway station near the city of Soledar, as well as manpower from the Ukrainian army reserve,""

Posted by: Republicofscotland | May 9 2022 14:44 utc | 238

Nazi missile shotdown heading for civilian area in Lugansk today.


"Air defense forces of the Lugansk People’s Republic (LPR) shot down a Ukrainian Tochka-U missile that targeted a residential area in the settlement of Novaya Astrakhan, the LPR people’s militia reported on Monday.

"On the day of celebrating the Great Victory, the Ukrainian Neo-Nazi forces bombarded a residential area in the community of Novaya Astrakhan, firing a 9M79-1 Tochka-U ballistic missile," the LPR people’s militia said on its Telegram channel.

The emergency warning system helped avoid casualties among civilians, the LPR people’s militia said."

Posted by: Republicofscotland | May 9 2022 14:47 utc | 239

Some Ukrainian or Polish terrorists have attacked the Russian ambassador to Poland in Warsaw while he was paying homage to the fallen in WWII in a wreath laying ceremony.

https://twitter.com/RWApodcast/status/1523604768198856704

It is clear that there was no scurity whatsoever on the part of the Polish government, as it is mandatory for the host country on foreign diplomats.

In the end, the attackers, two young women who remained besides the ambassador even after the agression without any police doing anything, what could have ended in a death attack if intended, ended so covered in syrop as the ambassador and his fellow companions.

That the Polish society do not react to this outrage, after having suffered the genocide by these same criminals´ancestors who now run amok in Europe under the protection and funding of the Biden administration, that of the UK, Germany and France, and the negligence of the rest of governemnts in the EU, will come to bite them, along the EU citiznery at the due time.

The Russians are quite able to defend themselves, but, what would be the job of these hooligans in Europe once they do not have the Russians at hand, and in the middle of a total financial collapse in the whole West?

I fear that anybody not obeying the government directives and mandates dictated in the US and the WEF will be thrown at these rabid dogs, what you, Europeans, are going to do then?


Posted by: Ghost of Mozgovoy | May 9 2022 14:50 utc | 240

From Streek again, the beginning of the oft-discussed passage on this thread:
"Ukrainian politics apart, an American proxy war for Ukraine may force Russia into a close relationship of dependence on Beijing, securing China a captive Eurasian ally and giving it assured access to Russian resources, at bargain prices as the West would no longer compete for them."

This author is about 10 years out of date. The Russia-China alliance is way beyond his ken - as seems to be the case with most Western policy-makers albeit perhaps that is just what is presented on the public consumption level.

Also, the word 'America' is almost meaningless now, the difference between the desires of the people and the actions of their ruling class being now extreme. It is quite likely that America is about to go into profound internal chaos soon. His article treats 'America' as if it is a dependable, well-understood entity with dependable, easily understood policies. (Not!)

Incidentally, the same US power networks pushing this war seem to be in cahoots (in the "Biden" administration) with the same ones bringing the country to its knees ASAP. For why?

We wonders, aye, we wonders...

Posted by: Scorpion | May 9 2022 14:54 utc | 241

This is big:

Hamas delegation to Moscow four days ago: https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20220505-senior-hamas-delegation-in-russia-for-talks/


May 5, 2022 at 10:33 am

A senior Hamas delegation arrived in Moscow on Tuesday at the invitation of Russia's Foreign Ministry to hold "important discussions" with Russian officials, Tass reported yesterday.

Deputy Head of Hamas' Political Bureau, Moussa Abu Marzouk, led the delegation, which included Fathi Hammad and Hussam Badran, as well as the movement's representative in Moscow.

Sources reported by Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper said that the Hamas officials were scheduled to hold talks with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov.

The sources also expected that the Hamas delegation might attend a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov. It is also planning to hold talks with the Russian parliament and the Federation Council, as well as to meet with Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov.

The israelis are *not* going to be happy. Perhaps they'll shut up about Lavrov's apparent 'gaffe' the other day.

Interesting to see Ramzan Kadyrov in the house too ...

This reminds me of an Islamic prophecy (Sura Tul Rum) that in the end times the [inheritors of ] Rome will find common cause with Muslim forces and do battle against Gog of Magog (Yajuj and Majuj).

Posted by: Arch Bungle | May 9 2022 14:55 utc | 242

Seeing the multiple comments about Lviv and Poland I'll share an interesting "discovery" I made while reading about WW I. The official reason why Poland lost Lviv is given as being because of a neurotic Zionist British Foreign Office diplomat named Sir Lewis Namier, who single handed redrew the Curzon Line before giving it to the Soviets. Original being called version "A" which included Lviv and the changed version "B" where it would be in the Soviet area.

What's particularly interesting about this British diplomat is that he was not British. He was born in Poland and his original name at birth was Lewis Bernstein. More details about this very interesting history can be found here,

https://tinyurl.com/3c8tzruy

This historical figure has much in common with what Lavrov recently said as well as the following article's hero Bernays, with whom he has much in common.

See on ZH today's article,

The Psychology Of Manipulation: 6 Lessons From The Master Of Propaganda

According to Bernays, those doing the “governing” constitute an invisible ruling class that “understand the mental processes and social patterns of the masses”.

MON MAY 9, AT 5:20 AM


I love how this "theme" repeats itself over and over and over when big screen historical events are discussed.


*******
Let the old bones stay buried and not give them the power to hurt the present living

Posted by: hk | May 8 2022 19:32 utc | 58

Tell that to the North American Indians.

If I was an Indian watching any of the John Ford's westerns with the imagery of the West, I'd be reminding myself immediately that all that I see was stolen from me and not "Oh, well. Easy come easy go." No matter the amount of time, the land is theirs because that land was STOLEN. Not sold, not given, not traded ..... STOLEN.
******

Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 9 2022 2:23 utc | 129
Poland is a captured State, much like Ukraine today. More similarity than meets the eye. There is no geopolitical decision that they make that is not cleared first by their Western Masters. To think otherwise I think is wishful thinking.

Posted by: Tom_12 | May 9 2022 14:57 utc | 243

Posted by: Ghost of Mozgovoy | May 9 2022 14:50 utc | 236

"That the Polish society do not react to this outrage, after having suffered the genocide by these same criminals´ancestors who now run amok in Europe..."

Except this time the Nazis in question are run and trained by Jewish oligarchs and Zionist-friendly US G-men not inhuman anti-Jewish Aryans. The former are good guys so we just let any cognitive dissonance pass and blindly trust that our Dear Leaders know what they are doing; we tighten our belts, restrict bathing as requested, wear more sweaters in winter and ask what else we can do along with begging to be allowed to stay at home wearing our useless surgical masks again plus of course: more jabs please!

Posted by: Scorpion | May 9 2022 15:00 utc | 244

His name at birth was Ludwik Bernstein Niemirowski

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | May 9 2022 15:03 utc | 245

First time in 8 long years that the citizens of Melitopol are able to celebrate Victory Day without being attacked by rabid criminal neonazis...For all Europe to see, that what Russia is doing is liberating oppressed people by the nazis and their Western curators.

https://twitter.com/VeraVanHorne/status/1523577253380202496?cxt=HHwWgIC9-ZHc6qQqAAAA

Posted by: Ghost of Mozgovoy | May 9 2022 15:04 utc | 246

"That the Polish society do not react to this outrage, after having suffered the genocide by these same criminals´ancestors who now run amok in Europe..."

If you are referring to the physical attack on the Russian Ambassador it reveals P{Poland as unfit to host any embassy whatsoever. It is a legal requirement of the host country to protect the Embassy and staff of foreign representatives. If Poland cannot do this it should state so and warm all foreigners they are not safe in Poland or its capital.

It was a basket case country before 1939 and seems to have reverted to type in recent years. It is frankly giving the appearance of being a country in steep decline and will certainly go into economic reverse with such incidents. Hardly likely China will invest there and with von der Leyen gagging to run up more debts and pay for golden lavatories for Zelensky it is clear Poland will no longer be recipient of EU funds as it has been.

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | May 9 2022 15:09 utc | 247

Posted by: Ghost of Mozgovoy | May 9 2022 14:50 utc | 236

The payback will come in the Future. Seeing the number of Ukrainian flags there I would put my bet on some Ukrainians doing this. But who knows, Poland I suspect has plenty of historically illiterate idiots. Any reasonable person would not do something like this when it involves remembering the dead who gave up their lives to clear the country of invaders. If the Soviet Army did not enter I am almost positive US/Allies would have come to an agreement with the Germans and the Great Game would have gone on being played as always, over the dead bodies of the Pawns and the Poles speaking German.

Posted by: Tom_12 | May 9 2022 15:09 utc | 248

Posted by: Tom_12 | May 9 2022 14:57 utc | 239

You may find this interesting.........

http://web.archive.org/web/20151222102914/http://journals.indexcopernicus.com/fulltxt.php?ICID=1127276">http://journals.indexcopernicus.com/fulltxt.php?ICID=1127276">http://web.archive.org/web/20151222102914/http://journals.indexcopernicus.com/fulltxt.php?ICID=1127276

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | May 9 2022 15:20 utc | 249

Sorry bit of a botched Url because Wayback Machine has not catalogued it......

However, one should question the belief that the nfluence of Namier was as far‐reaching as is quite often assumed in Polish historiography. In fact, he himself remarked that the Poles were building a false picture of him when he wrote to his father: “it is simply humorous how they have concocted such a legend about me”99. In truth, he was only the supplier of conve‐ nient arguments of an ethnographic and political character. The extent to which the British took no account of him as a person was proved by Namier himself when he left the Foreign Office offended at the off‐handed attitude to his commitment to the British side.
The interpretation that speaks of him as the author of the Curzon Line is there‐ fore false. The most tenable view would seem to be that all that Namier’s only part in this story was that of an individual who drew this line on a map. Later, tak‐ ing this proposal, the British ineptly changed the text of the note sent to Moscow which reflected their wish to censure the wayward conduct of the Poles in their part of eastern Europe and their attempts at implementing their own political concep‐ tions. With certainty, no one at this time could have guessed just how great a role this document was to play again in the next global conflict.

Bartłomiej Rusin Jagellonian University
Lewis Namier, the Curzon Line, and the shaping of Poland’s eastern frontier after World War I1

This article is an expanded version of a fragment of my master’s thesis on “The history of the concept of the Curzon Line and the shaping of Poland’s eastern border, 1918‐1945” written under the supervision of Dr. Grzegorz Mazur and defended in 2010 at the Institute of Political Studies and International Relation of the Jagellonian University.
PL ISSN 1230-5057

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | May 9 2022 15:27 utc | 250

Putin's Victory Day Address

Posted by: Andrew Celestina | May 9 2022 11:40 utc | 198

Thank you, Andrew.

Posted by: juliania | May 9 2022 15:31 utc | 251

His name at birth was Ludwik Bernstein Niemirowski

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | May 9 2022 15:03 utc | 241

Not based on his father's last name.

From the paper I referenced.

The family moved successively to Kobyłowłok, Nowosiółki Skałackiej and
Koszyłowice (in the Austrian partition), where it acquired an estate in the district
of Zaleszczyki (895 hectares), seeking to root itself in the Polish land‑owning class.
At the same time, the Bernsteins were landowners in Popowce (400 hectares) and Biała
(435 hectares). Such extensive domains enabled the young Ludwik to undertake
studies abroad in the later period. As he claimed, he was raised as a Pole. Polish was
spoken in his family home. His teachers were people tied with the Polish indepen‑
dence‑orientated left who were still students at the time, among others Edmund
Weissberg, Stanisław Kot and Marian Kukieł. It is also known that towards the end
of the 19th century (1897 to be precise), they were officially registered as being of
the Mosaic faith. They later converted to Roman Catholicism, but Ludwik refused
baptism. It may have been then that the family changed its name to Niemirowski,
though there is no certainty as to whether both issues were interlinked. For certain
there were no earlier links between the Niemirowskis and the Bernsteins 9
.

I bet the family bought the right to the last name, which was common practice in that part of the World inorder to be less conspicuous.

Józef Niemirowski (Bernstein)
Birthdate: 1858
Death: 1922 (63-64)

Immediate Family:

Son of Jakób Chaim Bernstein and Balbina (Bluma) Bernstein (Wilner)

Husband of Anna Niemirowska

Father of Teodora Modzelewska and Sir Lewis Bernstein Namier

Brother of Gabriela / Gitla Pessa Parnas; Sara Rittenberg; Ruchla Bernsztein; Rywka / Rebeka Jawetz; Debora Bernstein and 10 others


Posted by: Tom_12 | May 9 2022 15:35 utc | 252

Thanks to Andrew Celestina @198 for posting Putin's speech transcript. I'm reposting the core of Putin's speech, the part that few in the West will be allowed to read or hear:

We are proud of the unconquered, valiant generation of victors, that we are their heirs, and it is our duty to preserve the memory of those who crushed Nazism, who bequeathed us to be vigilant and do everything to ensure that the horror of the global war does not happen again.

And therefore, despite all the disagreements in international relations, Russia has always advocated the creation of a system of equal and indivisible security, a system that is vital for the entire world community.

Last December, we proposed to conclude an agreement on security assurances. Russia called on the West to engage in an honest dialogue, to search for reasonable, compromise solutions, and to take into account each other's interests. All in vain. Nato countries did not want to hear us, which means that in fact they had completely different plans. And we've seen that.

Preparations were openly underway for another punitive operation in the Donbas, for the invasion of our historical lands, including Crimea. Kiev announced the possible acquisition of nuclear weapons. NATO has begun active military development of the adjacent territories.

Thus, a threat was systematically created that was absolutely unacceptable for us, and right at our borders. Everything said that a clash with neo-Nazis, Banderaites, on whom the United States and its junior companions bet, would be inevitable.

Let me repeat that we have seen how the military infrastructure is unfolding, how hundreds of foreign advisers have begun to work, and there have been regular deliveries of the most modern weapons from NATO countries. The danger grew by the day.

Russia gave a preemptive rebuff to the aggression. It was a forced, timely and the only correct decision. The decision of a sovereign, strong, independent country.

The United States of America, especially after the collapse of the Soviet Union, began to talk about its exclusivity, thereby humiliating not only the whole world, but also its satellites, who have to pretend that they do not notice anything, and dutifully swallow all this.

But we are a different country. Russia has a different character. We will never give up love for the Motherland, from faith and traditional values, from the customs of our ancestors, from respect for all peoples and cultures.

And in the West, these thousand-year-old values, apparently, decided to cancel. Such moral degradation became the basis for cynical falsifications of the history of World War II, incitement of Russophobia, glorification of traitors, mockery of the memory of their victims, crossing out the courage of those who obtained and suffered the Victory. [My Emphasis}

After his speech and the parade, Putin met with the father of the Hero of Russia Vladimir Zhoga and presented Artem Vladimirovich Zhoga with the star of the Hero of Russia, which was posthumously awarded to his son, Vladimir Zhoga, the commander of the Sparta battalion who died in Donbass.

Putin then took part in the Immortal Battalion March, of which there's video here. The official Kremlin video of the Victory Parade is atop the page with Putin's speech below. Video of Putin laying a wreath at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier is here.

Happy Victory Day to all barflies!!

Posted by: karlof1 | May 9 2022 15:36 utc | 253

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | May 9 2022 15:27 utc | 246

Looks like you did not look at the tinyurl link I gave in my comment #239. Have a look at,

Posted by: Tom_12 | May 9 2022 14:57 utc | 239

Posted by: Tom_12 | May 9 2022 15:42 utc | 254

"...a neurotic Zionist British Foreign Office diplomat named Sir Lewis Namier,.."
Somewhere in here, on one of the shelves of books, is a volume of essays entitled Vanished Supremacies, I wish that I could find it but it would take a while. In which, among the memorable phrases which this master of English prose used, or in this case chose from an official report, is one featuring "Poles in Top Hats.." As I recollect it, after half a century, those Poles were visitors to the Frankfurt Diet of 1848 warning the democrats there of the danger, to property, of awakening the Ukrainian serfs from their political and national slumber.
Again my memory is not very fresh, but I believe that the saviour of those Poles and their Top Hats, not to mention property, was Tsar Nicholas and his army.

Namier was indeed neurotic, zionist and a Tory but he was also one of the most important British Historians of the C20th. And, as I said, a very elegant essayist to boot.

Posted by: bevin | May 9 2022 15:48 utc | 255

Posted by: Scorpion | May 9 2022 8:08 utc | 169

Thanks for the 'overpriced Hummer' image, Scorpion - also others posting on this subject.

Posted by: juliania | May 9 2022 15:50 utc | 256

What is the reason given for no flyovers in the Victory Parade?

Posted by: Norwegian | May 9 2022 15:55 utc | 257

Has Scholz taken complete leave of his senses ? With statements like this today he is clearly hellbent on destroying Germany economically and socially and splitting the whole country asunder.

The man is so so weak and politically inept

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | May 8 2022 17:50 utc | 42

That's the way Mutti wanted all her underlings.
Who was her original totally forgotten anointed heir?
Von Der Leyden was so bad she was packed of to Brussels.
And here we are!
Mediocre political ability everywhere.
Especially in Germany but not exclusively limited to there.

Posted by: Jpc | May 9 2022 15:59 utc | 258

Norwegian | May 9 2022 15:55 utc | 253

Weather. Parts of Russia have experienced severe weather over the last few days. Very strong winds from dry storms (severe weather keeping fire fighting aircraft grounded), but flyovers look to have been canceled right across Russia.
I would guess there was some sort of terrorist threat from the usual culprits.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 9 2022 16:02 utc | 259

A report to b:

The following poster has inaccurately posted a quote he attributes to me:

Posted by: Undercutter | May 9 2022 4:29 utc | 151

I did not say it.

Posted by: juliania | May 9 2022 16:06 utc | 260

@Peter AU1 | May 9 2022 16:02 utc | 255

Weather

Thank you. One can speculate, but that does not seem unreasonable. I saw a clip from a parade in Norilsk with a snow blizzard https://t.me/intelslava/28379

Posted by: Norwegian | May 9 2022 16:11 utc | 261

Sushi @227--

That's a nice recap. It's hard to choose the correct elements for such a list so it doesn't become overly long and cumbersome. Two big differences between then and now are government bureaucrats were more in control than the Oligarchs and electoral politics still offered choices--the Duopoly hadn't been invented yet--although today's Fascism had already arisen thanks to JE Hoover, McCarthy, ongoing virulent racism, and others. Divide and Rule as a tool wasn't really employed until the Freedom Marches and Cuban Revolution began to change the post-war dynamics in the late 1950s. The former presented huge problems for perception managers in Washington as no one could aver the USA had achieved the Four Freedoms when so many millions were clearly subjected to Fascist Rule, and their persecution was allowed to be broadcast globally. We might also write about Soviet failures to capitalize on that glaring contradiction from 1964-1978 with the USSR's leadership's failure to develop its own consumer society while its internal corruption rose markedly. Essentially, the failure to greatly improve the lives of the generation from 1964-1984 is what caused the USSR's fall. IMO, today's Russian leaders have learned much from past failures and have deployed developmental goals that will make the USSR appear as a weak shadow by comparison. As many have noted, Russia and the Outlaw US Empire are heading in opposite directions.

Posted by: karlof1 | May 9 2022 16:19 utc | 262

One of the Nazi (Azov) commanders tried to escape from the Azovstal complex in a tank, he didn't make it.

https://twitter.com/timand2037/status/1523436162836172800

Posted by: Republicofscotland | May 9 2022 16:22 utc | 263

Posted by: bevin | May 9 2022 13:42 utc | 216

Thank you, bevin. Not to belabor a dead horse, but rather bury it, I would equate the Streek article to a labyrinth; the minotaur is the final sentence which many who have been enjoying the ins and outs of the journey thereto may overlook. I think b posted it as a warning to readers of a convoluted strategy to change perceptions and also minds, the poisoned pill in the candybar, if you like.

Posted by: juliania | May 9 2022 16:29 utc | 264

Posted by: karlof1 | May 9 2022 15:36 utc | 249

The west lives in a political reality show of its own making, with the tinsel, clowns and courtiers that remind me of Velázquez and Goya paintings with all those runts running around for the court merriment. Yesterday was the turn of Cacofonix Bono and his side kick, today the turn is for the richest and smarter guy in the whole galaxy, can have all the money in the world Elon but Rogozin wiped his ass with your face this morning, not only compossing songs but denying you something a lot dearer than money, the right to partake in a world celebrated party, the defeat of nazism, and not only that, you got the label of collaborator by providing the neonazis with military grade communication tools. And just to bury that rich guy in the mud, out in space the Russian cosmonauts unfurled the Banner of Victory. Eat your heart out Elon, and go to the underground to drop some coins on Cacofonix and The Itch.

https://t.me/rogozin_do/2667

Picking up that link I realized that the clowns had company, oh la la son of Pierre, if your “pére” would be here to see you, Rogozin informs us that the 9th of May poster boy Justin and I’m no fascist ‘cause I’m jew Zelensky spend their time granting a medal to a dog, the pen full of lice and dogs barking at each other, or so says Rogozin.

https://t.me/rogozin_do/2676

Posted by: Paco | May 9 2022 16:31 utc | 265

@ Sushi | May 9 2022 14:20 utc | 227 / @ 231 bevin... thanks for the input.... valuable insights!

Posted by: james | May 9 2022 16:39 utc | 266

Posted by: Republicofscotland | May 9 2022 16:22 utc | 263

A couple of other tweets found from your link:

@ILRUSSO1
the wife of a Ukrainian soldier in Azovstal. He said: 'The situation is very serious and it is getting worse. There are many injured who will not be up to seeing tomorrow. My husband asked me to google how he can survive without water

@The_Real_Fly
Azov Battalion: Our forces trapped inside the Azovstal complex do not have sufficient reserves of drinking water and food.

Posted by: Sarmat | May 9 2022 16:44 utc | 267

Yesterday, b suggested reading Tom Friedman's NYT op/ed. Today, Global Times editorialized it very mockingly:

"'I love you, but I can't protect you.' Anyone in love but with a sober mind could realize that this is not true love. In its love affair with Ukraine, the US does not even bother to pretend that it is a scumbag ... '[F]alling in love with Ukraine' in ways that will get the US enmeshed there forever is 'the height of folly'....

"Friedman was trying to assure those who believe the US would be foolish enough to join a war for Ukraine: Don't hold the naive illusion that the US would shed blood for it. There is no such a thing. What the US wants is to maximize its own interests when both Russia and Ukraine are bleeding....

"A prolonged war suits US interests best - it not only serves the US' long-term strategic goal of containing Russia, but also caters to the huge appetite of the military-industrial complex of the country. 'Saving Ukraine' is the dramatic effect the US wants to create, but what it really wants is to stay behind and exploit the benefits. For the US, Ukraine is just a tool to meet its needs....

"'So long as the fight stays on Ukrainian soil, and the fighters in the air and on the ground remain Ukrainian, the moral calculus is simple.'

"Shen Yi, a professor at the School of International Relations and Public Affairs of Fudan University, told the Global Times that Friedman had delivered the message clearly that Ukraine should serve US interests, not the other way round, and all those who want to latch on to the US and believe the US can be hijacked, be it today's Ukraine [yesterday's Kurd's] or the island of Taiwan in the future, are only having fond dreams.

"'The US has no guts. It fans the flames, but dares not shoulder responsibilities. The US' strategic calculations in the Ukraine crisis shows that it is outwardly strong but inwardly weak,' remarked Shen." [My Emphasis]

For Chinese, the Outlaw US Empire's motives are transparent, and that's likely the same for many other nations since the track record is so well established. That is itself is the major reason why most of the planet backs Russia and not NATO.

Posted by: karlof1 | May 9 2022 16:55 utc | 268

About russophobia:

There is a constant resistance against any argument or evidence which comes from the possibility that it could lead to a more pro Russia view on this conflict.
So better to disregard it. Don’t read or watch it.
It’s psychology, and no matter of educational background.
So you are against the Empire or not.
No idea where this comes from. What makes the difference here. It’s not the partisan orientation, not intelligence or personal history.
I stopped all my arguing even with closest friends.
The political development is a question of power. Nothing about enlightenment. Revolutions are always a play of the mighty, and never result from intellect.

Posted by: njet | May 9 2022 16:56 utc | 269

Paco @265--

Decades ago, I thought of buying a U2 album but bought one by the Scorpions instead. I was pleased with that choice as events proved my suspicions of U2 correct. IMO, the editorial I parsed @268 says it all--the Outlaw US Empire and all that's attached to it is a "scumbag," particularly Bono and Musk.

At some point, Humanism will triumph over Capitalism and Imperialism. Only one thing can prevent that: The bruised ego of some nuclear armed NATO national leader.

Posted by: karlof1 | May 9 2022 17:13 utc | 270

By the response of the Polish Interior Minister, justifying the attack on the Russian ambassador, one would say that it was organized by himself.

https://www.rt.com/news/555196-poland-envoy-attack-response/

When in the Earth before this any official has justified an agression on grounds of a military conforntation in or with any country.

One would say that the "rules based order" changes as the wind blows, without notice...

For the same token Eastern Ukrainian refugees in Poland would have jusitified attacking any Ukrainian official at hand, of whom there are a bunch in Poland, starting with Azov Commander Biletsy and Right Sektor leader Yarosh, as rumor has...

When in the Earth an Interior Minister justifies violence in any way, all the more against acredited foreign officials?

Should we start justifiably attacking any US official because of their military interventions everywhere?

This minister should either resign or give and explanation.

Posted by: Ghost of Mozgovoy | May 9 2022 17:38 utc | 271

At some point, Humanism will triumph over Capitalism and Imperialism.
Posted by: karlof1 | May 9 2022 17:13 utc | 270

I've been carping, here and there, about prognostication. Now here you go with that "I'm sure everything will work out fine" bromide. You sound like my saintly, departed grandma. You also remind me of something another optimistically-inclined prognosticator said:

Let us realize the arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice.

The person who said that had a different kind of faith than my own -- a faith in some kind of historical progress, for which I find no basis. Of course not. The point of faith is believing something, even though there's no particular reason to believe it. For instance: I have a faith that truth is good for you, in the long run. But this faith of mine diametrically contradicts any available evidence.

Posted by: Aleph_Null | May 9 2022 17:40 utc | 272

Posted by: Paco | May 9 2022 16:31 utc | 265

I can't figure out who wrote that first paragraph, you or karlov1, but that is some serious, genius-level prose sallying forth there.

(It begins with: "The west lives in a political reality show of its own making...." )

Muchas Gracias!!

Posted by: Scorpion | May 9 2022 17:42 utc | 273

Aleph_Null @272--

Well, us historians aren't supposed to make prognostications, but I was writing from the political-economist/sociological-anthropological part of my brain which affirms/attests to such progress. IMO, it's imperative to recall the 1/8th of the world that's Europhile isn't anywhere near the majority, and that collectively based socio-cultural nations/peoples are the majority. Xi's/China's vision--A Shared Future for Humanity--is a goal likely shared by 90% if not more. Only an extremely tiny minority desire a different future, but IMO they aren't powerful enough to attain their evil dreams as they are currently being dehorsed from their mounts.

It's my opinion that most historians are likely futurists too, as it's very difficult to examine the past without contemplating the future that past will usher forth. Sure, we fail--the War to End All Wars didn't. And the Century of the Common Man has yet to manifest itself. But constantly being 100% cynical isn't good for the heart or soul which are lessons my elders taught me.

Posted by: karlof1 | May 9 2022 18:12 utc | 274

Karlof1 @ 253. Great post. I enjoyed the video links to the Victory Parade in Moscow. What a Statesman Putin shows he really is. I was impressed by him joining the March of the Immortal Regiment with a picture of his father. He is clearly not someone who is afraid of his own citizens and is a Hands On President. I think back to the Remembrance Day Memorials here I think it was 2 years ago (may be 3yrs) when BoJo, clearly drunk, started off too early to place his Wreath and then placed it upside down. We've got him and the Russian's have Putin. How I wish there were Statesmen in this Country. Jeremy Corbyn could have been but, as he's the best Prime Minister the UK never had, we will never know. Like Putin, Corbyn is a very serious minded politician, loves his country and had a great economic plan for its improvement. But, hey ho, we've got Bojo on par with Zelensky who didn't appear to be able to muster up any Statesmanlike qualities for the Victory Day Celebrations in the Ukraine. Fancy putting up a photo to commemorate the Day of an Army Soldier wearing the Nazi Logo. The man isn't fit for office.

Posted by: Jo Dominich | May 9 2022 18:14 utc | 275

Jo Dominich @275--

Thanks for your reply. Yes, it's a shame UK got Bojo instead of Corbyn. Quite the Royalty show of power for those curious enough to take a deep look. I blame Cromwell or those who bought him, the latter being most likely. IMO, England's Civil War changed very little aside from providing the precedent of Regicide for the French to latter emulate.

Posted by: karlof1 | May 9 2022 18:29 utc | 276

In another thread I commented (on b's "must read") that most political prognostication strikes me as whimsical fairytales, imagined to occur on a previous planet, not the one we do and will inhabit. I think I can reduce the graphs I track, as a means of gaining some insight into the planet's immediate future, down to two. One of them our fault, the other just our bad luck in the year 2022.

Our fault: The ceaseless, exponential trend of GHG accumulation in Earth's atmosphere. Most explosively, presumably self-sustaining from not-so-permanent permafrost thaw, the chart for methane:
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends_ch4/
Two straight years of unprecedented increase comes close to statistical confirmation of a new baseline beneath which it does not sink, because more methane makes for more methane (until all the permafrost is gone).

Bad luck: We're riding the rise of the Sun's mysterious 11-year sunspot cycle. More sunspots means more solar storms, showering Earth with more radiation:
https://spot.colorado.edu/%7Ekoppg/TSI/
From Greg's TSI Page (Total Solar Irradiance) we can see this cycle last crested in 2015. Now it's headed back up again, toward a 2026 peak. The difference Greg measures here, from roughly 1360 to 1362 Watts per square meter, is amazingly minuscule -- but the climate records show that just a little dab of this solar radiation will do ya.

Posted by: Aleph_Null | May 9 2022 19:18 utc | 277

@bevin 235:
"The US is acting irresponsibly, keeping the war going really does not benefit it at all."

You are assuming, it seems, that those pulling the strings there want what is good. Seems to me they are determined to crash the country as soon as they can without being blamed.

Posted by: Scorpion | May 9 2022 19:32 utc | 278

Posted by: Ghost of Mozgovoy | May 9 2022 17:38 utc | 271

The same people running Ukraine (Kiev) are the ones running Poland. I wouldn't expect any civilized behavior from them. It's just wishful thinking.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/poland-appoints-ex-banker-with-jewish-roots-as-prime-minister/

"rules based order" = "no rules"

At least it wasn't as bad as the case in Turkey.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/3/9/turkey-sentence-five-people-for-life-over-russian-envoys-killing

Was that incident really just an "unfortunate" accident of sleeping on the job for the security detail ?

Posted by: Tom_12 | May 9 2022 19:32 utc | 279

Posted by: Scorpion | May 9 2022 17:42 utc | 273

Thanks to you, it is Victory day after all, inspiration is in the air.

Posted by: Paco | May 9 2022 19:39 utc | 280

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | May 9 2022 15:20

Here’s a valid link to your article, Paul:

https://tinyurl.com/mr2ctp8y

(Sigh. Not only do I have to do everything at home, but also keep the shop.)

Posted by: Leuk | May 9 2022 20:25 utc | 281

Posted by: Paco | May 9 2022 19:39 utc | 280

"Thanks to you, it is Victory day after all, inspiration is in the air."

Well its my birthday so trying to spread a little good cheer...

Posted by: Scorpion | May 9 2022 21:06 utc | 282

Let us realize the arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice.

The person who said that had a different kind of faith than my own -- a faith in some kind of historical progress, for which I find no basis. Of course not. The point of faith is believing something, even though there's no particular reason to believe it. For instance: I have a faith that truth is good for you, in the long run. But this faith of mine diametrically contradicts any available evidence.

Posted by: Aleph_Null | May 9 2022 17:40 utc | 272


Ah, but the quote is much more perceptive than the man who uttered it. After all, once that arc bends toward justice, it continues to bend back downward. Justice is just the midpoint on the arc. As we see now.

Posted by: malenkov | May 9 2022 22:27 utc | 283

Posted by: Aleph_Null | May 9 2022 17:40 utc | 272


The person who said that had a different kind of faith than my own -- a faith in some kind of historical progress, for which I find no basis.

You must be blind then.

The evidence is before your very eyes.

7 Billion Humans on the earth and growing, where once we were a fragile few, on the brink of extinction.

Average Life spans increased to almost double what they once were.

Medical and Technological supports for our fragile bodies far beyond what was possible just 100 years ago.

More entertainment, leisure (for what it's worse) and opportunities to kill ourselves with pleasure than was ever possible.

More Justice for women, children and men than was ever available in the past.

I could go on, but the empirical evidence for historical progress is apparent to even a 12 year old.

You'd have to have been born in a third world country, like I was, for this to be apparent ...

Posted by: Arch Bungle | May 10 2022 2:14 utc | 284

I've only been able to skim this thread, but commenters indicate that Bono has been out being pompous again on the world stage. At such times it's crucial to revisit John Cooper Clarke's wonderful poem, "Bongo's Trousers":

Bongo's Trousers

The quality is very bad (audience cell phone recording), but the stand-up humor is priceless.

Posted by: Grieved | May 10 2022 2:44 utc | 285

arch Bungle 284

"More Justice for women, children and men than was ever available in the past."

this sentence can be argued over ad nauseam.

Justice would have to be defined, to start with. Social? Economical? Racial? Religious?

And exactly where?

Suppose a woman mistakenly slaps you. Or even your own wife slaps you or pretends you did. Will you get justice?

Are you sure you can be black and be decently treated by the police?

You must be applauding the new LBGTxyz tolerance?

Can you be Russian and be looked upon with benevolence?

We can discuss that statement...

Sad new justice indeed.

Posted by: CarlD | May 10 2022 3:10 utc | 286

@Scorpion | May 9 2022 19:32 utc | 278

Seems to me they are determined to crash the country as soon as they can without being blamed.

That thought occurred to me way back in March of 2020 and I've believed it ever since.

Posted by: majoab | May 10 2022 6:26 utc | 287

I could go on, but the empirical evidence for historical progress is apparent to even a 12 year old.

You'd have to have been born in a third world country, like I was, for this to be apparent ...
Posted by: Arch Bungle | May 10 2022 2:14 utc | 284

It might be arguable that the things you mention, especially those related to technology and the growth of the human population, have been "progress," i.e. good for humanity.

It is not possible to argue that those things have been good for the planet where we live and evolved nor for the creatures with whom we share the Earth. And that fact is catching up with us now, making it apparent that all that "progress" was not good for us in the long run.

Posted by: Henry Moon Pie | May 10 2022 6:41 utc | 288

Posted by: Enigma | May 8 2022 14:36 utc | 3

> "Just wondering, it seems Ukraine has limitless supply of fighter jets and helicopters. How come they keep flying these crafts knowing they will be shot down?"

As Ukraine had to know of the likely scenario that Russia would come hard at their airports before or after any escalation in the Donbas, with help of NATO, they prepared for a decentralized air force, hidden in various locations (maybe even around or over the border) and flying solo missions mostly, ah hoc support and not in any formation or other forms of organized air operation.

This is not just a theory, there have been some witnesses and interview with relevant personnel, kind of bragging about it really. But it's really a handicapped air force, flying short and low altitude missions. The amount of linked NATO/US radar and satellite systems in combination with the remaining SAM installations do prevent complete domination of the skies over Ukraine. This only will change when all systems are tracked and taken out, one by one. After that, the conflict ends.

Posted by: John Dowser | May 10 2022 10:00 utc | 289

@Aleph_Null | May 9 2022 19:18 utc | 277

Our fault: The ceaseless, exponential trend of GHG accumulation in Earth's atmosphere. Most explosively, presumably self-sustaining from not-so-permanent permafrost thaw, the chart for methane:
There is no factual evidence that the so called greenhouse gasses have the claimed catastrophic effects, only flawed computer models that have failed to predict anything in the real world. It is non-scientific dogma driven by destructive politics. The climate is driven by the Sun.

Bad luck: We're riding the rise of the Sun's mysterious 11-year sunspot cycle. More sunspots means more solar storms, showering Earth with more radiation:

The solar cycle is actually 11 years on average, and mainly in the 20th century. In the 19th century the average was different and longer. https://www.sidc.be/silso/spotless# see "Evolution of spotless days in SC24-25".

The actual cycle length is in fact 22 years, because it is a magnetic phenomenon, and the polarity flips with each cycle. We are now in the beginning of cycle 25, which looks to be a low activity cycle like cycle 24, with many spotless days. Some have suggested we are entering a grand solar minimum similar to the Maunder minumum 1645-1715, characterised by no or very few sunspots and very low temperatures in Europe.

High solar activity does not necessarily mean harmful radiation, because the most powerful events tend to happen in periods of low activity, ref https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_Event in 1859, caused by a Coronal Mass Ejection. An event like that today would be "interesting" wrt. electronic devices.

Posted by: Norwegian | May 10 2022 10:45 utc | 291

Posted by: Norwegian | May 10 2022 10:50 utc | 290

It is not possible to argue that those things have been good for the planet where we live and evolved nor for the creatures with whom we share the Earth. And that fact is catching up with us now, making it apparent that all that "progress" was not good for us in the long run.

Posted by: Henry Moon Pie | May 10 2022 6:41 utc | 288

I think the problem is a lot of the "progress" turned out to be cheap plastic crap intended mainly to make a quick profit, and deceptive services that are intended to extract rent, and lots and lots of waste also intended to make quick profits.

I think the main effect is we are making the planet unsuitable for creatures like we are. We have no respect or gratitude. Instead of working with and enhancing, we consume and degrade. Stupid.

How many generations of crap do we have in our storage lockers?

Creatures that crap up their own nests cannot stay anywhere long.

Anyway, thank you for your comment.

Posted by: Bemildred | May 10 2022 11:46 utc | 291

There is no factual evidence that the so called greenhouse gasses have the claimed catastrophic effects, only flawed computer models that have failed to predict anything in the real world. It is non-scientific dogma driven by destructive politics. The climate is driven by the Sun.

Posted by: Norwegian | May 10 2022 10:50 utc | 290

It's true that these sun cycles affect Earth's climate, but it would be rather myopic to think that the content of the atmosphere didn't also have powerful effects. For example, substantial volcanic activity can put a lot of dust in the atmosphere, shielding the Earth from some of the sun's rays and dropping temperature.

The effects of GreenHouse Gases is less intuitive but no less real. Here's an article describing the role of GHGs in warming the climate.
These effects have been confirmed experimentally:

So what happens to those photons? “Greenhouse gas molecules will absorb that light, causing the bonds between atoms to vibrate,” says Jesse Kroll, Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Chemical Engineering at MIT. “This traps the energy, which would otherwise go back into space, and so has the effect of heating up the atmosphere.” Basically, the bonds between the carbon and oxygen atoms in our CO2 molecule bend and stretch to absorb photons. (With other greenhouse gases, the molecular bonds are different, but in all cases, they absorb photons, stopping them from leaving the atmosphere.)

Those experimental results serve as part of the basis of the computer models you're talking about. The other component is what we know about the relationship between GHGs and temperature through time. This article discusses the history of GHGs and temperature as scientists have been able to determine using data from ice core samples and elsewhere. Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere have not been this high since the Pliocine 3 million years ago.

Human civilization has all taken place in the Holocene, the most stable and human-friendly period in Earth's history as far as we know. Why we keep hearing about 1.5 degrees Centigrade is because temperatures have never been warmer than that during the entire Holocene. It would seem a major violation of the precautionary principle to let the temperature rise above that when we don't know what will happen, especially considering that the likely results will render Earth a lot less human-friendly place, especially for things like agriculture.

Of course, if allowing the world's rich (the richest 10% contribute 50% of carbon emissions) to live in McMansions and drive giant pickup trucks is the most important thing to society, then it makes sense to claim the models are bad and who really knows. If other things, like the survival of human civilization, are important to us, then we'd better cut carbon emissions radically and quickly beginning yesterday.

Posted by: Henry Moon Pie | May 10 2022 13:51 utc | 292

Bemildred @291 re Henry Moon Pie @288

I think the problem is a lot of the "progress" turned out to be cheap plastic crap intended mainly to make a quick profit, and deceptive services that are intended to extract rent, and lots and lots of waste also intended to make quick profits.

I quite agree. One key example is manufacturing a new car, washing machine or refrigerator. Which bright spark decided that its component parts should cross an international border 3-5-10-15 times (and probably back again) as each far-away place adds just the tiniest bit of value?

They complain about problems with the supply chain but have they never heard of warehousing?

Posted by: echelon | May 10 2022 14:14 utc | 293

They complain about problems with the supply chain but have they never heard of warehousing?

Posted by: echelon | May 10 2022 14:14 utc | 293

First everything had a little clock in it, then a little radio, then a little calculator, and so on, now everything has batteries and bluetooth and wifi and gps. This is like putting tail-fins on a car and hood ornaments. And none of it will last, remain useful, for very long. They are working on not letting us repair things. This is all very wasteful of "non-renewable resources", all this marketing bullshit.

Posted by: Bemildred | May 10 2022 14:43 utc | 294

Good interview with Mearsheimer on CGTN (from mid-April):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=74iAMskV68Y

Posted by: farm ecologist | May 10 2022 15:49 utc | 295

Posted by: Henry Moon Pie | May 10 2022 6:41 utc | 288


It might be arguable that the things you mention, especially those related to technology and the growth of the human population, have been "progress," i.e. good for humanity.

It can be argued that the definition of "is" really is *is*, if you get my drift.


It is not possible to argue that those things have been good for the planet where we live and evolved nor for the creatures with whom we share the Earth...

That is a different argument, for me, though I agree these arguments are linked.

My metric for progress is simply the most empirical one:

The abundance, duration and quality of a particular kind of life, i.e Human Life.

There are 7+ billion of us upon the earth right now, where a few thousand years ago we numbered only in the millions.
Our average lifespans have increased, and the quality of medical support (or at least it's availability) has improved by and large.

That is is all, and I think that's a good enough metric.

These are practical, practicable metrics not philosophical, theosophical or otherwise esoteric ones - for those could be argued without end or resolution.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | May 10 2022 21:28 utc | 296

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