Ukraine Open Thread 2022-192
Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.
Please stick to the topic.
The current open thread for other issues is here.
Posted by b on November 6, 2022 at 13:07 UTC | Permalink
next page »🇺🇸🛰🇺🇦🇷🇺Defense News: The United States is increasing the grouping of satellites to conduct reconnaissance for the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in Ukraine on the eve of the offensive in the Kherson direction.The US National Directorate of Military Space Intelligence (NRO) has accelerated a program to increase the grouping of satellites in Ukraine at the expense of commercial satellite companies. To this end, NRO will additionally use the resources of five companies: the American division of Airbus, the California Capella Space and Umbra, the Florida PredaSAR and the American branch of the Finnish ICEYE.
According to the publication, the NRO has an orbital satellite grouping consisting of 50 satellites for intelligence gathering. It is reported that they monitor the movement of Russian troops, the course of hostilities in Ukraine, and also monitor the situation on the implementation of the "grain deal" in the Black Sea.
https://t.me/azmilitary11/27853
One of the reasons for the increase in reconnaissance satellites is the need to more quickly transmit the necessary intelligence data to Kiev on the eve of a massive offensive on Kherson. For the transfer of intelligence data to Kiev, it takes time to declassify them. Pictures of private companies can be transmitted immediately.
https://t.me/azmilitary11/27854
Posted by: Down South | Nov 6 2022 13:11 utc | 2
❗️The offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Kherson can be stopped due to NATO's mistake:According to the Military Chronicle, for a breakthrough in the Berislav direction, the Armed Forces of Ukraine plan to use small infantry units equipped with VAB light armored personnel carriers made in France and British Husky TSVs, delivered to replace the BTR-70 and BTR-80 lost in battles with an 8 × 8 wheel arrangement.
By the beginning of November, 90% of the 28th mountain assault brigade, the 60th infantry and the 46th brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were equipped with these types of vehicles. According to radio interception, the command of the 46th brigade doubts the effectiveness of this equipment against Russian artillery and at the end of October appealed to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with a request to cancel the attack on Berislav without heavy weapons cover.
According to the Military Chronicle, it became known from the radio interception of the 46th brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine that the command of this formation was ready to attack in the Berislav direction only if the 17th tank brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was supported. However, in this formation, less than half of the tanks needed by the brigade according to the regular structure are in combat readiness.
Serious damage to the French and British armored personnel carriers in the areas of concentration of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is caused by the Giacint-S and Msta-B guns, as well as the division of the special power of the Malka guns of 203 mm caliber from the artillery sleeve of the RF Armed Forces on the left bank of the Dnieper.
The combat work of artillery of the RF Armed Forces in the Berislav direction exacerbated another problem of the Armed Forces of Ukraine - poor staffing with spare parts and specialized tires for foreign-made armored personnel carriers.
Due to the error of equipment senders in NATO countries, the VAB, Husky TSV armored personnel carriers, as well as American FMTV M1083 tractors (transport of M777 howitzers with a protected cab) were delivered to Ukraine without spare wheels. Splinters of 152-mm shells hit the wheels repeatedly, which led to the fact that the armored vehicles had to be written off.
The use of third-party rubber and a different size leads to overheating of the transmission, engine breakdowns and off-road problems.
Before the start of the expected November offensive, losses in light armored vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine can reach 70%. After that, the Ukrainian troops risk losing the possibility of tactical maneuver and will be forced to switch to passive defense.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/18935
Posted by: Down South | Nov 6 2022 13:16 utc | 3
Interesting read from Larry Johnson
Quick answer–NO!! The United States military is outfitted with the most expensive weapons systems in the world. But the process of deciding what to build and deploy is not based on a well-defined national security strategy that recognizes how those systems would be used in a real war.The prime example of the folly of the U.S. Defense industry is the air craft carrier task forces that represents the chief means for the U.S. to project force overseas. Why do I say “folly”? Because the Russians and Chinese have produced and deployed hypersonic missiles that can penetrate the anti-missile systems that are supposed to protect the carriers.
In the event of a shooting war with China over Taiwan, any U.S. carriers deployed within 500 miles of China would be sitting ducks.
CAN THE UNITED STATES FIGHT A TWO FRONT WAR?
Posted by: Down South | Nov 6 2022 13:34 utc | 4
Are the Russians capable of shuttering the Satellite observation systems? If the Russian can do so they can mask the offensives they are planning or stymie and Ukie lunges. Either attack the software via hacking or the physical infrastructure of the modules or the control rooms.
Posted by: Wokechoke | Nov 6 2022 13:37 utc | 5
Large UAF attacks yesterday near Kupyansk and Lyman. Combined loss estimates during and after these attacks include over 500 personnel (100 foreign mercenaries from air strikes), 11 tanks, 14 light armored fighting vehicles and a lot of pickup/technicals.
Then some smaller skirmishes in Pavlograd/Ugledar and Nikolaev / Krivoi Rog. Judging by White House statement of Zelensky needing to be open for "negotiation" and talk/rumor of Kiev evacuation, cracks in Nato performance and morale appear.
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 6 2022 13:38 utc | 6
I saw casualty estimates posted in the last open thread which were very favorable to Russia. However, if the very favorable ratios are not likely to be true then do not share what is likely false information. Our collective goal is to help Russia. We are not helping Russia by sustaining false information. If the number of Ukrainian combat casualties is for instance only 2x to Russian combat casualties which would be pessimistic for the Russian war effort then it should be discussed in the open. If the current Russian strategy is not working then it has to change course. Without reliable estimates how is it possible to determine if the Russian strategy is working or not working?
If based on reliable estimates it is determined the strategy is not working then Russia will seriously have to consider taking on a huge risk to save itself from defeat. One risk pathway is Russia working with Iran to start a proxy war in the east part of Syria. If the US is cleared from Syria, it will threaten Israel. US foreign policy is controlled by Jews. Russia will be in a better position to negotiate with the US if Israel is threatened through Syria. If the US attacks Iran after the start of the proxy war then Russia will need to send support for Iran. This means world war so it all has to be carefully considered. If the combat casualty is not favorable to Russia then it leads to this difficult decision.
Posted by: calculation | Nov 6 2022 13:42 utc | 7
@ Wokechoke
We know Russia has direct-ascent anti-satellite missiles. They’ve also tested a mysterious satellite that can split in two, maneuver to keep pace with another satellite, and shoot projectiles. My question is: how many of these systems did they build?
Also, do they have the balls to use them? Direct attacks on U.S. satellites invite direct war with USA. I think if they have these systems, they’ll use them only after USA openly attacks Russian soil.
Posted by: GoFast | Nov 6 2022 13:49 utc | 8
The chaos and disjointed and confused tactical/logistical disaster of the Ukrainian forces under the advanced imaging and SAT intelligence is consistently being destroyed by the Russian forces. Russia has yet to deploy its most lethal conventional weaponry that the West is so desperate for Russia not deploying it because US/NATO are getting so frustrated for not knowing what else Russia has its arsenal of Russia's most advanced defense weaponry. So far Ukraine and its entire anti-Russian coalition is getting their asses kicked big time. Because of the disastrous Ukrainian+USA+UK+Germany+Israel+EU+5-eyes countries are getting pretty beatings by the Russians. And this is the reason now the genocidal Pentagon is considering using Iraq deployed and failed "depleted Uranium" and "mini nuclear arsenal for the defeat of Ukraine is imminent and that is an unacceptable outcome for the uber Zionists hellbent to defeat Russia!
Posted by: Allan Kaplan | Nov 6 2022 13:53 utc | 9
One might question the ability of Ukrainian Soldiers to change a tire (a wheel - a tire mounted on a rim) in the mud or generally otherwise.
Because they're receiving NATO vehicles without spare tires. And even ones with the wrong size wheels.
Lighter, 4x4 may be better than heavier 8x8 vehicles, but with the wrong wheels and no spares?
It seems at least, now AFU soldiers are expressing some reluctance about offensive maneuvers which lead to many losses.
Posted by: Chaka Khagan | Nov 6 2022 13:59 utc | 10
A bunch of nukes with all the sats moving into position, they are going to spook Russia into striking first if this keeps going on.
Posted by: OhhCanada | Nov 6 2022 14:06 utc | 11
A couple key quotes from the BBC:
"It is very difficult and slow-going. They control the sky. They've got much more military equipment, more people and more ammunition." (Ukrainian Soldier)
and,
"First of all, we need reactive artillery that can hit up to 300km (180 miles) from us. And we need an air defence system - basics for any army in the world that wants to go on the offensive." Ukrainian Maj Gen Dymytro Marchenko
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63489081
So based on their own words the Ukrainians are outnumbered and outgunned with the Russians controlling the skies.
Anyone still think the Russians are suffering more losses than the Ukrainians?
Posted by: Tom | Nov 6 2022 14:13 utc | 12
calculation | Nov 6 2022 13:42 utc | 7
Without reliable estimates how is it possible to determine if the Russian strategy is working or not working
Guess you'll need a verified carnage count.
Posted by: john | Nov 6 2022 14:13 utc | 13
The best I read till now is to divert acción and push out the yanquees out of siria where they are uninvited, threathening Israel, and they atole oil, very WebKit position
Posted by: María Vaz | Nov 6 2022 14:20 utc | 14
reply to 7
It's fair that Ukr. troop losses are only estimates. However, we went thru some weeks of very minor claims that followed heavy claims (mobilization was needed). Now, claims are getting big again. So in relative terms, I think heavy losses in Ukraine are credible - and all the more so because they lack armor and try to fight with pickup trucks or the like.
Russia is playing 'rope a dope' with Ukraine. Ukraine must keep attacking and that means horrific losses.
Posted by: Eighthman | Nov 6 2022 14:24 utc | 15
Sorry the errors, I repeat, I don’t know how to fix them.
The best I read till now is to divert acción and push out the yanquees out of siria where they are uninvited, threathening Israel, and they stole oil there, very Weak position
Posted by: María Vaz | Nov 6 2022 14:26 utc | 16
"Are the Russians capable of shuttering the Satellite observation systems?"
Even if they have the capability I would be surprised if they use it anytime before actual NATO forces are on the front line ... that's the whole point of the USA spending $$$$ on a losing cause ... to find out Russian capabilities and deplete them of their best weapons. IMO Russia is sandbagging. The only way we'll find out is from Ukrainian reports and it's not in their interests to talk either.
Posted by: Dave_k | Nov 6 2022 14:33 utc | 17
There's one mysterious angle to this whole situation and it centers around North Korea. Basically, anytime North Korea gets riled up enough about some US / SK war games or maneuvers the US always backs down. However, in the case of Russia the US seems to constantly ramp things up. In fact, there is no way the US /NATO would ever attack a North Korean bridge, its port, or sink one of its capital ships without expecting a full military retaliation from North Korea. Yet, in the case of Russia they done seem to care or expect payback. Is the US more afraid of North Korea then Russia ?
Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | Nov 6 2022 14:36 utc | 18
This is troubling, the tag is Sladkov's and I check it on his TG and it's there so would say it's true. Mud or otherwise the Ukrainians or Poles or whatever still have a lot of fight in them. Cross posted with I think his comments from the TG - Victor, vicktop55
Khodakovsky warned that it would be. But there are too many idiots.
WarGonzo: Everything is objectively bad on Pavlovka. The first joy from the fact that the Donbass special forces of the OBTF and the Cascade went there was replaced by extremely depressing news about the situation of the 155th brigade of the Pacific Fleet. Khodakovsky openly runs into those who planned the operation (so far without names). A colleague and our military "father" Sladkov reports painful losses and the appeal of marines from the 155th to the leadership of the RF Ministry of Defense. We are waiting for specifics and organizational conclusions.
I knew what it would be. Khodakovsky reasonably predicted everything a week ago.
Sladkov: URGENT!!!
DIFFICULT SITUATION IN PAVLOVKA (DPR). MARINES OF OUR 155th Brigade APPEALED TO THE GOVERNOR OF PRIMORYE OLEG KOZHEMIAKO.
I am not sending a letter. Its essence was transferred to the Russian Ministry of Defense. Original in Primorye. It has been said: great losses, the inability to convey to the top management information about our high useless losses in people and technology. I have the numbers, but then it's up to the Prosecutor General's Office.
The marines are asking Oleg Kozhemyako to contact the Defense Ministry to send a commission to urgently analyze the situation. There are three loud names in the letter, I know, but I don’t quote. However, I am publishing the post myself, because they have been talking upstairs about the situation in Pavlovka for several days, and the blood is pouring and pouring.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 6 2022 14:53 utc | 19
Posted by: Dave_k | Nov 6 2022 14:33 utc | 17
Some people claim Russia could destroy "all Nato satellites" in case of war. I don't think that's true, even if they used all their missiles they would still need to destroy thousands, maybe tens of thousands US satellites. And also in "case of war" they would first and foremost need air defense against Nato aircraft and missiles, so they can't afford to spend on satellites.
Some kind of space vehicle with a particle beam weapon would probably be more viable for the long run. The vehicle could cruise over Eurasian space and destroy all foreign satellites that try to enter the space. There would probably need to be more than 1.
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 6 2022 14:57 utc | 20
Concerning quotes and talk from the NRO this morning as regards increases in Satellite Recon vehicle total:
The number mentioned is 50. These will be mostly Low Earth Orbit and apparently commercial. This would be satellites of the Landsat or Indian array type. Note this is not new launches, and almost certainly not maneuvering to new orbits.
Rather than additional hardware in orbit, the issue would be allocation of analysts on the ground and their time spent on the data that is already being downlinked.
Getting tactically useful information from imagery requires fast turnaround. Capturing images on one day and analyzing them and reporting their content the next day is likely not very useful. A big analyst budget should be able to take some hours off of this, but it's never going to be instantaneous. Note also that the Russians will have an advantage always in that their satellite resources can downlink to Russian analysis facilities almost in real time as the satellite passes over Ukraine. It's a matter of geometry and geography. Line of sight.
American orbital assets have to be visible to the ground station that will collect the downlink for it to happen. I don't personally know of any navy ships with that capability, but it's certainly possible. From a Navy shipboard capability, that information could then be uplinked to a geosynchronous platform(s) for transfer around the world and back down into the US facilities for analysis.
Overall conclusion, extra satellites mean less than analysis time/budget. Russia's recon will always have a geography advantage for time of collection and analysis.
This is all further evidence that satellite recon has rendered lessons of warfare history somewhat unimportant.
Posted by: I Know Things | Nov 6 2022 14:59 utc | 21
Yet, in the case of Russia they done seem to care or expect payback. Is the US more afraid of North Korea then Russia ?
Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | Nov 6 2022 14:36 utc | 18
What's to be gained from a conflict with NK?
There's no amazing resources gain just for one.
Plus two allies would suffer enormous damages.
And if NK got a nuke away how does the US retaliate without bringing China into the conflict.
One NK nuke over California and the emp wipes every electrical device out.
Posted by: jpc | Nov 6 2022 15:02 utc | 22
cracks in Nato performance and morale appear.
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 6 2022 13:38 utc | 6
---
I can't recall who is and isn't US, but a good phrase used here is "it's all over but the crying".
Actually, it was all over way back when Russia didn't collapse. Come to think of it, that would be a good project/essay for someone to study and publish.
Is there a day/week where one could point to and ID a specific point at which the crisis passed? (Was there even actually such a point or was it just the grand cacophony of western media?)
There wasn't ever any real intention to engage in a land battle over Ukraine. Rather, as has been pointed out by so many, it became an exercise is testing equipment, drawing down stores in order to acquire fresh toys, money laundering and career advancement.
From a US perspective, its basically off the news. Sure, you can go find news if you so desire, but it's not being trumpeted 24/7 in your face as it was just a few months back.
That both tells and reassures me of some basic American characteristics:
One, very short attention spans; No ancient blood feuds here. Remember, everyone here is a product of people literally walking away from family/regional connections.
Two, we haven't had an actual existentional fight on our land for 160 years. It's why Americans won't accept large losses - these overseas adventures are all fine and dandy if the losses are kept to a minimum.
Three, dropping Ukraine doesn't mean the battle for Russia is over. Rather, it will simply transition to another theater in the so called hybrid scheme.
In fact, we could even become great pals again and include Russia in the dollar regime. As I keep saying, $usd = energy.
Russia has the energy, so why not accept a sweet heart deal that leads to an economic building boom?
It's the old make or buy analysis: go your own way with all the attendant, drawn out sabotage and interference, or reach an agreement where both parties benefit today?
Posted by: B9k9 | Nov 6 2022 15:06 utc | 23
jpc [22]
You are so ill-educated
North Korea is resource rich especially in rare earth minerals
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Nov 6 2022 15:10 utc | 24
Our collective goal is to help Russia.
Posted by: calculation | Nov 6 2022 13:42 utc | 7
---
Who's this "we" kimosabe?
If I may speak for the American contingent, our goal is to destroy the neo cons. Russia is simply providing necessary foreign assistance in a manner similar to the French 250 years ago.
If this war can break the back of the deep state and cease the imperial adventures, "normal" Americans can go back to their true desire: one upping friends and rivals in the quest for economic (class) achievement.
Posted by: B9k9 | Nov 6 2022 15:17 utc | 25
@Dave_k: I suppose such satellites ("particle beam weapon") already exist. Used for WTC 911, California and other forest fires, attack on Crimean munitions depot...maybe the Moskva ship too. Probably somebody also manipulates weather in grand scale for geopolitical reasons, climate change hoax as a cover.
Problem is, if Russia shuts satellites down, she will also lose it's satellites. Makes only sense in a really big show down (aka end of the world).
Posted by: Synth | Nov 6 2022 15:22 utc | 26
" Plus two allies would suffer enormous damages.
And if NK got a nuke away how does the US retaliate without bringing China into the conflict.
One NK nuke over California and the emp wipes every electrical device out.
Posted by: jpc | Nov 6 2022 15:02 utc | 22 "
You make it sound like none of these things would happen if Russia was attacked directly. My question still stands. Why does the US seem more afraid of NK then Russia ?
Posted by: Deplorable Commisar | Nov 6 2022 15:28 utc | 27
@19
Pavlovka will fall, but it will take time. Clearly, Russia does not want to "spend" soldiers in assaults as they did in WOII and who can blame them. Even so, there will be losses, just not on that "epic" (in fact, totally inhuman) scale. I guess none of the keyboard-office chair heroes claiming for hastier Russian involvement have a son on the frontline and most of them probably haven't seen mutilated bodies except on their screens (without any of the real horror). In a way, as to speed, there's even an Aesopus (and La Fontaine) fable that could be applied here. I think the Russians learned their lessons well, those of WOII, the Cold War and Afghanistan with it. The USA seems to think no lesson is ever needed.
Posted by: Anthony | Nov 6 2022 15:31 utc | 28
@ Deplorable Commisar | Nov 6 2022 15:28 utc | 27 re: Why does the US seem more afraid of NK then Russia ?
This is nothing more than a conclusory allegation. How would one attempt to engage such an ill-contrived thought of yours?
Posted by: BigTex | Nov 6 2022 15:37 utc | 29
Russian marines of the 155th Brigade in Pavolvka have been taking staggering casualties and have written a letter that goes as follows (Source: https://t.me/vicktop55/8390 ):
Letter from the Marines of Russia, who die in vain near Pavlovka, to the Governor of Primorye, Oleg Kozhemyako. no comments
“Dear Oleg Nikolaevich. The Marines of the 155th Marine Brigade are addressing you.
Once again, we were thrown into an incomprehensible offensive by General M. and his corefan countryman A. in order for M. to earn bonuses in front of the Chief of the General Staff, and A. comrade M. promised the Hero of Russia.
As a result, we and the marines of Kamchatka are advancing on Pavlovka. As a result of the "carefully" planned offensive by the "great generals", we lost about ... people in 4 days killed, wounded and missing. We lost ... percent of military equipment. This is just our team.
The command of the district, together with A., hide this and take the official figures of losses for fear of responsibility.
How they were going to capture the settlement by slipping through the forest plantations, in which the enemy remained now destroying ours on the ways of evacuating the wounded and transporting ammunition. In addition, Pavlovka is below Ugledar, from which they hit us.
Oleg Nikolaevich, Primorye people! How long will such mediocrity as M. and A. plan military operations for the sake of their reports and receive awards at the cost of the lives of so many people.
They don't care about anything just to show themselves. They call people meat.
We ask you to turn to the Supreme Commander so that they send a commission not from the Ministry of Defense, where M. protects G., but an independent one.
Let them be asked the purpose of such actions, their provision, and the results without embellishment.
How much can we endure!”
In the film Liberation (Part 2, unless I'm mistaken), Soviet soldiers in the offensive on Minsk were ordered to stand and fight on the west bank of the Dneiper to the last, not knowing that they were only a diversion to keep the Germans busy while Zhukov's devastating offensive was built up elsewhere on the front. Unfortunately we don't have a Zhukov now. But hopefully the thinking is the same.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Nov 6 2022 15:40 utc | 30
RT headline 6th November --
"Ukraine bombed dam with American missiles – Kherson officials
Six rockets from US-supplied systems were fired at the key infrastructure, with one making it through, emergencies services report"
When will the gifting of F35s begin?
Posted by: Elmagnostic | Nov 6 2022 15:42 utc | 31
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 6 2022 14:57 utc | 20
Some people claim Russia could destroy "all Nato satellites" in case of war. I don't think that's true
It is true.
Moreover, it's easy.
All that's needed is sufficiently widespread shrapnel pollution in the orbital band to wipe out most satellites in the orbital.
Then there's emp.
Then there's satellite hunting drones that can cut up what remains ...
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 6 2022 15:45 utc | 32
" This is nothing more than a conclusory allegation. How would one attempt to engage such an ill-contrived thought of yours?
Posted by: BigTex | Nov 6 2022 15:37 utc | 29 "
Yet you conveniently failed to address this point.
" In fact, there is no way the US /NATO would ever attack a North Korean bridge, its port, or sink one of its capital ships without expecting a full military retaliation from North Korea. "
Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | Nov 6 2022 15:53 utc | 33
It is true.
Moreover, it's easy.
All that's needed is sufficiently widespread shrapnel pollution in the orbital band to wipe out most satellites in the orbital.
Then there's emp.
Then there's satellite hunting drones that can cut up what remains ...
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 6 2022 15:45 utc | 32
Yes, there is no place to hide, and you aren't going anywhere fast either. No foxholes, no nothing. Like the gunfight at the OK corral.
Setting off an EMP would be an interesting experiment at this point. What would still work?
Posted by: Bemildred | Nov 6 2022 15:55 utc | 34
ZH has a posting up about the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam in southern Ukraine being hit.
The quote
"Today at 10:00 there was a hit of six HIMARS rockets. Air defense units shot down five missiles, one hit a lock of the Kakhovka dam, which was damaged," Russian news agencies quoted local emergency authorities as saying.
The posting then goes on to write about Z
The Kakhovka dam has for months been at the center of competing accusations and claims, with President Zelensky saying weeks ago that Russian troops are plotting a 'false flag' detonation of the large structure in order to trigger cataclysmic flooding.Zelensky appealed to world powers to ensure the dam's safe operation by sending an international mission to protect and operate it, pointing out that if the dam burst it would case a "catastrophe on a grand scale".
"The dam of this hydroelectric power plant holds about 18 million cubic meters of water," he said in statements last month. "If Russian terrorists blow up this dam, more than 80 settlements, including Kherson, will be in the zone of rapid flooding. Hundreds, hundreds of thousands of people may be affected."
So just how did Russia get 6 HIMAR rockets to fire at the dam? I know, minor details....
Posted by: psychohistorian | Nov 6 2022 15:59 utc | 35
@ Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | Nov 6 2022 15:53 utc | 33
Again with the conclusory statements. I do not believe you realize that (i) you are offering an opinion and then (ii) you are asking everyone to validate your opinion. I'm not failing to address any "point" you have made. You merely stated an opinion without any supporting facts. You are free to believe what you wish; however, asking for others to bolster your rambling thoughts seems weak-minded.
Posted by: BigTex | Nov 6 2022 16:04 utc | 36
@ psychohistorian | Nov 6 2022 15:59 utc | 35
Also the Kakhovka dam is the basis of water delivery to Crimea. Built in Soviet times in the 1950s, the Kakhovka dam pumps water into the North Crimean canal, which starts in southern Ukraine and crosses the entire Crimean peninsula.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Nov 6 2022 16:09 utc | 37
Pepe Escobar has another posting up at The Cradle linked below with lots of detail
No pain, no grain: Putin’s Black Sea comeback
The ending quote
What changes with Russia “suspending” its own deal with Ankara and the UN, is that from now on, Moscow can proceed anyway it deems fit to neutralize terrorist threats and even invade and take over Ukrainian ports: that will not represent a violation of the deal with Ankara and the UN.So in this respect, it is a game-changer.
Seems like Erdogan fully understood the stakes, and told Kiev in no uncertain terms to behave. There’s no guarantee, though, that western powers won’t come up with another Black Sea provocation. Which means that sooner or later – perhaps by the Spring of 2023 – General Armageddon will have to come up with the goods. That translates as advancing all the way to Odessa.
Posted by: psychohistorian | Nov 6 2022 16:10 utc | 38
There's now 2 chemical tankers, "Mainland" and "Brave", off Odessa, they seem to be idling or anchored. Yesterday Champion Pula was at Yuzhne port. Obviously they are transporting fuel to be used in the Kherson front yet allowed free travel.
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 6 2022 16:22 utc | 39
Russia has maneuverable "inspector satellites" whose capabilities are unknown but they can maneuver to other satellites orbit.
They also have ground based missiles and air launched missiles that can target satellites.
They also have the "peresevet" laser system that can reportedly blind satellites from the ground.
And finally they have airborne and ground based EW systems that can affect satellite transmissions.
I don't pretend to know Russia's true capabilities or intentions ... anyone who does, especially official sources, is FOS ... this is just what's on the internet. You can't trust anything the Russians say about their capabilities because disinformation has ALWAYS been a major tactic in how Russia has conducted wars by design. They learned this from the Mongols.
Posted by: Dave_k | Nov 6 2022 16:24 utc | 40
Biswapriya Purkayast @ 30
Unfortunately we don't have a Zhukov now. But hopefully the thinking is the same.
No Konev or Chuikov either, or Molotv and hate to say it, Stalin. These people knew what they were facing, from all sides, friends and enemies, they never let down their guard before, during, or after the war. Seems Putin, Lavrov, Shoigu, maybe Surovikin have to relearn every thing from scratch. Looking at history seems it takes about two years for a military, on both sides, to shake out the dead wood and get on with the real war.
The Soviets in WW2 would send men in battle with no gun where they waited for someone to fall in front of them so that they can pick it up and continue advancing. If the Russians are really attacking with a 1 to 3 disadvantage then every man they loose is a big gain for Ukraine, so loosing RF lives is very problematic in this SMO. Calculations must be made differently that WW2. The Russians today are in no position to throw their own soldiers into the meat grinder to create diversions, all I see here is a loss of limited precious resources, men and machines. Looks to me like they over extended their lines once again and got trapped.
The mobilized reserves will help but they will be green. Territories the size of Ukraine need million man armies to make any progress. Apparently and uncharacteristically NATO and the USA understood this from the start, saw the meat grinder coming, built up a huge army of Ukrainians not caring less about carnage while RF prepared to fight Syria on the home front, easy-peasy.
Thankfully the west doesn't have any way of putting together a million man army seeing that not a single leader in the EU or USA has over 30% support. In every country in the west people detest their leaders and their neoliberal devastation so for now I don’t see people running to the recruitment office. However, I think the USA is working on Gulf of Tonkin or a Pearl Harbor the latter being what they would really need to go all in.
I think the reports from Pavlovka are as bad as they sound and what we know, two paragraphs on TG, is heavily censored.
RF also lost a Priest today:
Father Mikhail died near Pavlovka together with the soldiers of the 155th brigade of marines. The ROC said that the rector of the patriarchal metochion at the headquarters of the Strategic Missile Forces, Archpriest Mikhail Vasiliev, died during a special operation.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 6 2022 16:38 utc | 41
DC@#18
Now Russia vs. the combined West WW3 is fully in the open. I recently pointed out that the US was afraid to attack Iran.
You have correctly pointed out that they are also afraid to take on N Korea.
With woke nonsense, big overspending for inferior weapons and having not faced serious opponent (they lost to all 2nd & 3rd tiers), I have called US military paper tiger.
Here's the problem. Russia seems a squirt gun against the paper tiger. They need to be a flame thrower.
Posted by: Parfum | Nov 6 2022 16:44 utc | 42
unimperator @ 39
There's now 2 chemical tankers, "Mainland" and "Brave", off Odessa, they seem to be idling or anchored.
...and not shooting down any Global Hawks anywhere over the Black Sea international waters be damned. They need a little bit of that GW Bush cowboy "bring it on bravado". Maybe Mr. Bravado Medvedev should be in charge? Maybe it's all 8th dimensional Twister judo plotted out in mystic secret btwn RF China Iran and the Saudies under the Get Smart "Cone of Silence." Multipolar world victory will blindside us all.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 6 2022 16:49 utc | 43
@ Parfum | Nov 6 2022 16:44 utc | 42
With woke nonsense, big overspending . . .
"Overspending" is their goal. Yes, war is a racket and so is almost-war. It's been US policy in Korea for decades. Trump tried to start an end to war status in Korea with the Singapore Agreement but then nothing more was heard about it.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Nov 6 2022 16:51 utc | 44
calculation @7 <-- A silly poster who thinks the Russian high command lurks in the dark corners of the bar eavesdropping for strategy ideas. How foolish!
"Our collective goal is to help Russia."
Sez who? And jawboning here at the whiskey (uisce?) bar over a fine Irish single malt helps the Russians how, exactly?
I think most of the legit posters (and lurkers) at the bar are here to develop their wisdom and share knowledge for personal, internal reasons. I'm pretty sure it is only the trolls who come here and post thinking they are going to change the world, or earn a paycheck, as the case may be. While I've seen many ripples disturbing the "official" imperial narratives that clearly originated with our host's work, and sometimes even from posters in these fora, I don't think any of the legitimate barflies are so arrogant and narcissistic as to think their opinions will decide the war!
No, the only kind of poster who would post concern here that some of the perspectives widely accepted by the community don't align with the narratives that the imperial mass media is desperately doing the hard-sell on would be a concern ... something or another. What's that word I'm thinking of? You know, those primitive creatures who live under bridges and prey on the unwary? One of those that pretends to be concerned for the unwary in order to instill FUD is what I'm talking about.
Posted by: William Gruff | Nov 6 2022 16:51 utc | 45
B9k9 @ 25
Who's this "we" kimosabe? If I may speak for the American contingent, our goal is to destroy the neo cons. Russia is simply providing necessary foreign assistance in a manner similar to the French 250 years ago. If this war can break the back of the deep state and cease the imperial adventures, "normal" Americans can go back to their true desire: one upping friends and rivals in the quest for economic (class) achievement.
Good post.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 6 2022 16:55 utc | 46
@ Biswapriya Purkayast
Fake news buddy! keep spreading it long and large, only buffoons and kiddies will believe your fairy tale stories.
Posted by: crazycanuck | Nov 6 2022 17:00 utc | 47
crazycanuck @ 47
Maybe you should show required courtesy to others here by reading through the posts first not to mention do some extracurricular reading. I had already posted about Pavlovka and stated it's verified from Sladkov's TG. Sladkov? Google it.
That said beats me, maybe Sladkov got duped or his TG got hacked.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 6 2022 17:19 utc | 48
A HIMARS warhead is 200 lbs (91 kg).
Not exactly a 'dambuster,' cf. the RAF 617 Squadron raid on the dams in the Ruhrgebiet, using specially designed bombs with 6,600 lb (3,000 kg) Torpex.
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Nov 6 2022 17:28 utc | 49
Several posters have called for Russia to "end it," but an "end" can come about only with the concurrence of the US government. Yet I'm not sure what situation in Ukraine would induce the US government to abandon its goal of destroying Russia. And even if such a situation could occur in principle, it would need to be determined whether Russia could feasibly expend the resources to bring it about.
Posted by: David Levin | Nov 6 2022 17:33 utc | 50
@calculation #7
It is a myth that Russia needs "our" help to defeat Ukraine.
Those who are bought into the idea that media narrative matters once shooting starts, are confused.
These are the same people raised under an environment where the US and EU governments have to hide, redirect, pretend ignorance etc in order to deploy force don't understand that Putin and the Russian government are actually the ones restraining the far more aggressive (at this point) Russian public opinion.
Nor am I the least bit convinced that relative casualty figures matter for Russia. Russia could trade off 2 for 1 and would still do it as they firmly believe Ukraine is an existential issue.
For Ukraine - if the conflict were truly a groundswell, casualty ratios would not matter either. The North Vietnamese and Vietcong lost at least 2 or 3 times more dead than ARVN+US, but they were fine doing so in order to win.
But in reality, there is a small cabal of elites in Ukraine plus a 2-3% ultranationalists in the population who are really supporting the war - everyone else is just trying to get by. And so the only hope is to inflict enough pain that Russia stops - but I have already made it clear that this would not happen anyway.
And so here we are: Ukraine is not going to stop until it is defeated, and in doing so, ensures that the outcome will be the worst possible one for that country and its people.
Posted by: c1ue | Nov 6 2022 17:43 utc | 51
No negotiations. Those will only be stalling tactics by the US/UK. Total victory is the only way. Anything else will eventually result in Russian disaster. One side or the other is going to lose everything. Sad but true, I think.
Posted by: Leroy | Nov 6 2022 17:55 utc | 52
@B9k9 | Nov 6 2022 15:06 utc | 23
...dropping Ukraine doesn't mean the battle for Russia is over. Rather, it will simply transition to another theater...
Sure thing. The other side of the coin is that Russia can switch to securing its new territories with regular personnel. This frees battle-hardened professionals (Wagner in the first place). They can become actors in other theaters as well, promising quicker gains there than any "battle for Russia", regardless of the theater. From the RF point of view, it would IMO be a waste to not benefit from "re-using" SMO structures, which become more and more refined and experienced (and bloated) the longer the SMO lasts. Just sell their services along with Russian weapons. I see a market for this kind of metastases, just another instance of multipolarity. The West is to blame, again. "Forever war" is not a one-sided thing. They introduced it and this is the reason why RF has developed suitable structures.
Posted by: OttoE | Nov 6 2022 18:00 utc | 53
@48
one source is never enough to be sure. There are lots of Telegram channels quite critical of the Russian command, eg some affiliated with the Wagner group, that would not hesitate to report on Russian extraordinary losses, but until now, they only mention a "heavy battle" in Pavlovka. And it's hard to know what channels are independent from one another. So I think we need to use a telescope, not a microscope, to really gauge the battle line evolution. Let's see what flag is raised in Pavlovka in a month or so. As in Bakmuth etc...
Posted by: Anthony | Nov 6 2022 18:02 utc | 54
Concerning "shooting down" satellites.
1) They don't de-orbit. They are not shot "down".
2) Filling a satellite traverse "band" with debris implies the debris has tiny propulsion on it, which it does not. If you explode a vehicle, the particles of debris begin to spread outwards. They don't stop. There are no thrusters on the slivers of metal to get them to stop. They start spreading out and they spread out forever. Any such cloud becomes larger and larger, and less and less dense.
3) Orbits have parameters. Equatorial inclination is one of these, and the relevant satellites, being polar, have inclinations of about 90 degrees. They also have altitude, and they are ellipses. Nearly circular but never exactly. Hitting the target is not easy. Or rather, it is very easy. If you put enough mass into orbit and explode it, and let the cloud of debris spread -- and then launch another and another, you can absolutely deny satellites the relevant altitudes. Nearly forever. Spaceflight for all of mankind would end for centuries. It takes 100s of years for a 400 mile orbit to decay.
3)
Posted by: I Know Things | Nov 6 2022 18:02 utc | 55
Can someone with knowledge of "satellite technology" perhaps test my theory?
Would it be possible to manipulate the satellite software? Since the satellites can only be reached remotely in order to update and configure the software, as well as to carry out position corrections depending on their capabilities, I see this as an approach to solving the problem. In any case, weak points have already been discovered in the Starlink terminals. https://www.wired.co.uk/article/starlink-internet-dish-hack
If I am informed correctly, the SL satellites are powered by an ion engine. Is there enough power to arrange "a meeting for satellites" at one point, or for a joint trip (gravity) to space or Earth?
The Russians have always been good at finding pragmatic solutions.
Posted by: 600w | Nov 6 2022 18:06 utc | 56
Deplorably Dumb Commissar has switched his “concern” from Russian volunteer rates to a sudden interest in North Korea. If you are trying to troll this Ukraine thread, I suggest you try a new one, or better yet, stick it in your ear. XXO.
Posted by: Zed | Nov 6 2022 18:08 utc | 57
@GoFast #8 that is IF they have those weapons systems and IF they got the balls to use them. I have my doubts on both after watching this war the past 8 months. Russia is using drones to drop almost by hand, anti-personnel ordnance. GLONASS is good i guess. They can shoot bus sized un-maneuverable soviet era sats in a predictable orbit, can they kinetically hit starlink sats that are the size of an amazon delivery box? can they visually blind the entire 1000 strong starlink fleet? hack the entire network? I have my doubts.
Posted by: jayco | Nov 6 2022 18:13 utc | 58
Posted by: 600w | Nov 6 2022 18:06 utc | 56
Another possibility is to put a self propulsion vehicle, carrying a parabel/half circle shaped "web" which can "catch" satellites. Sort of a space garbage collector. After you have some satellites in the "net", point the thing towards the sun, accelerate, de-accelerate, the satellites will fly into eternal glory. Bring the vehicle back to orbit and continue, happy hunting.
AFAIK satellites do not have propulsion per se, but some kind of directional thrusters to orient it, not sufficient to push it to space.
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 6 2022 18:20 utc | 59
ZH
"Italy Is A Fully Sovereign Country" – Italy's New Conservative Govt Refuses To Dock Migrants From German NGO Ships
That's an easy win for the new gov of Italy.
Turn away the brown and black refugees from NATO's wars.
But not a peep about leaving NATO.
True independence!
Posted by: Battenmountain | Nov 6 2022 18:28 utc | 60
Regarding Meloni last week she spent a two day retreat at Draghi's house. Unheard of, typical is a retreat with members of your own coalition to put together your cabinet. It's like Trump winning and spending two days in Obama's house before getting to work on his own administration.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 6 2022 18:42 utc | 61
"Forever war" is not a one-sided thing.
Posted by: OttoE | Nov 6 2022 18:00 utc | 53
---
As clue noted above, the % of people in favor of continued hostilities is really quite small.
In reality, and this speaks to Russian youth as well, your everyday person pretty much just wants to earn a (good) income, own a home/car/toy, score regular pussy, party and have a good time.
If you sail, surf or travel, you will know the Russians were everywhere throughout Bali, Thailand and other party hotspots. It actually became a cliche,'crazy Russian (chicks)'.
So when an existentional crisis ends, it's time for everyone to get back to the business of enjoying life.
That's why I believe that after the electoral blowout next week, the Ukraine spigot will bev turned off.
There will be calls to investigate the origins of the war as it will be used to score political points by hanging this albatross around the Biden/blinken regimes neck.
We'll go back to trying to isolate China while attempting to bring Russia back into the fold. Levis, pop music, fast food, the whole western cultural experience (sans woke shit) for the offing.
They've got the energy, we've got $uncle bucks. The spending explosion in Moscow and other regional hotspots is just sitting there waiting to be launched.
Posted by: B9k9 | Nov 6 2022 18:42 utc | 62
@60 battenmountain
While I feel your point, it is still a win for the people of Italy.
Our American/EU elite do not feel any effects of large migration and merely use this force as a political pawn.
This is a win for the people for which the elite are allowing to buy time.
I admit leaving NATO and disbanding the EU is the end goal, but it is a pretty good start from Italy here.
Posted by: NemesisCalling | Nov 6 2022 19:12 utc | 63
At the moment it appears that Russia is performing "Maskirovka" on the Kherson front
https://twitter.com/301military/status/1589311638766690309
https://t.me/readovkanews/46301
Posted by: Athanasios | Nov 6 2022 19:30 utc | 64
Evacuations as Ukrainian forces fire missiles at dam damaging it.
" Some 1,000 people have been evacuated from the city of Novaya Kakhovka in the Kherson region, Ruslan Agayev, a spokesman for the city administration, said on Sunday.
"Jointly with the Russian emergencies ministry, some 900-1,000 people [have been evacuated], according to the official requests from people," he said.
According to Agayev, evacuation proceeds seven days a week. People are being taken to Crimea by buses and further on to the Krasnodar Territory by railway transport.
Kherson Region governor Vladimir Saldo said on October 18 that people living on the Dnieper right bank would be relocated to the left bank due to the risk of flooding triggered by Ukraine’s attack on the Kakhovka hydropower plant. On October 31, he said that the evacuation zone on the left-bank part of the region would be expanded to a distance of 15 kilometers from the Dnieper."
https://tass.com/politics/1532843
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Nov 6 2022 19:36 utc | 65
@Posted by: unimperator | Nov 6 2022 14:57 utc | 20
Russia could destory all American satellites by launching enough debris into low earth orbit. It would affect all satellite communications, though, and probably turn low earth orbit into a dead zone for the foreseeable future. It might still be worth considering for Russia, since the USA benefits much more from satellite communication than anyone else does.
Posted by: FVK | Nov 6 2022 19:47 utc | 66
That's why I believe that after the electoral blowout next week, the Ukraine spigot will bev turned off.
B9k9
imo, publicly, some will be reduced, but the real money will still go to things like the German base now being exclusively dedicated to training and sending in Ukrainian soldiers and coordinate.
https://www.armytimes.com/news/your-army/2022/10/03/us-may-establish-new-command-in-germany-to-arm-ukraine-report/
and NED (national endowment for democracy) will be fomenting "revolutions" within and on the borders of russia, not to mention all the nato "drills" and selling new weaponry to everyone. as others have mentioned, we have succeeded in selling the idea of permanent war.
still, if we can avoid the nukes, any progress in ramping down Ukraine is awesome.
i can't link it, but i just saw some female broadcasters fawning over a ukronazi soldier (photos with swastikas, but not on the show) who is apparently going into schools to speak. doesn't get much more authoritarian than that. i work in a school and this enrages me. we are training racist facists. yay us.
Posted by: polarbear4 | Nov 6 2022 19:49 utc | 67
Is it possible that peace talks might be on the cards.
"The Biden administration is privately encouraging Ukraine’s leaders to signal an openness to negotiate with Russia and drop their public refusal to engage in peace talks unless President Vladimir Putin is removed from power, the Washington Post reports.
The paper quoted unnamed people familiar with the discussions as saying that the request by American officials was a calculated attempt to ensure Kiev maintains the support of other nations facing constituencies wary of fueling a war for many years to come."
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Nov 6 2022 19:52 utc | 68
Posted by: jayco | Nov 6 2022 18:13 utc | 58
Don’t have to blind them as I have heard the Russians destroy them by spoofing geolocation on the receiving pads. So I assume data still comes in but it is useless as it is too questionable.
Posted by: Battenmountain | Nov 6 2022 18:28 utc | 60
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 6 2022 18:42 utc | 61
Meloni is a fraud and captive opposition. She will at most make some airwaves about immigrants. Apart from that she is a mother - hen and will simply hatch her clutch. Won’t go against Israel or Nato. In fact the first thing she did was publicly swear fealty to Israel and Nato ,in that order. If she gets too tough on immigrants the Americans will nuke another Genoan bridge just as they did last time.
Posted by: Brother Ma | Nov 6 2022 19:59 utc | 69
Is it possible that peace talks might be on the cards.
As far as I understand the US administration if advising Kiev to give the impression of being open to negotiations, in order to keep the support of countries from the rest of the world.
It certainly is not meant to have real negotiations. The US is still doing fine with the war in the Ukraine. The MIC is making super profits, the EU competitors are deindustrialized and what money they have left they need to spend on incredibly expensive LNG imports from the US.
The puppets in the EU and the mad dogs in the UK are still all for war without end, because that is what their boss in Washington thinks is needed. The European peoples and economy, and of course the people in Ukraine be damned.
Posted by: Ronald Portier | Nov 6 2022 20:02 utc | 70
US is still in Syria stealing oil.
Israel bombs whatever they want anywhere in the ME.
All you virtue signallers, try flying a Palestine flag. Instead of Ukraine.
You could not find it on a map.
Posted by: Sockpup | Nov 6 2022 20:06 utc | 71
@ I Know Things #21
If you're talking about Landsat satellites (NASA/USGS), there are currently 2 in orbit providing imagery. The resolution is 30x30m multi-spectral, 15x15m pan. Each acquires the same place on the Earth every 16 days so with 2 in orbit, that frequency is reduced to 8 days. You cannot see tanks or such detail in their imagery and I've looked at thousands of those images over the years. You can see changes in land cover, such a wheat field now torn up by having a number of heavy vehicles moving around on the field but not the actual pieces of equipment. Landsat is good at looking at landscape patterns; where there are noticeable patches of trees, where there are open fields, making land cover maps and such.
Posted by: DakotaRog | Nov 6 2022 20:09 utc | 72
jpc [22]
You are so ill-educated
North Korea is resource rich especially in rare earth minerals
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Nov 6 2022 15:10 utc | 24
Rich enough to provoke a potentially catastrophic exchange?
I'm aware that there's minerals there but nothing like Afghanistan to mention one other country.
Thanks for the heads up vis the abundance of minerals Paul.
Very pompous response though!
Expected more from you.
Regards and how we can be civil in future.
jpc
Posted by: jpc | Nov 6 2022 20:20 utc | 73
Looks like the novelty has worn off:
"US officials have reportedly warned the Ukrainian government in private that it needs to signal an openness to negotiating with Russia."
"Officials in Washington have warned that “Ukraine fatigue” among allies could worsen if Kyiv continues to be closed to negotiations, the Washington Post reported. US officials told the paper that Ukraine’s position on negotiations with Russia is wearing thin among allies who are worried about the economic effects of a protracted war."
Finally the penny has dropped. Dumb fucks.
Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Nov 6 2022 20:21 utc | 74
@ Biswapriya Purkayast
You write a good fake letter, Sir.
Posted by: HERMIUS | Nov 6 2022 20:30 utc | 75
Why does the US seem more afraid of NK then Russia ?
Posted by: Deplorable Commisar | Nov 6 2022 15:28 utc | 27
Simply put.
Risk benefit is massively in NKs favour.
Posted by: jpc | Nov 6 2022 20:30 utc | 76
“Ukraine fatigue” is a story line created by the bidens to get votes. It's shelf life ends November 9.
The bidens have too much of themselves invested in their often stated goal, i.e., end Putin.
The bidens in Ukraine are writing history, their ego knows it, and, right or wrong, they want to write the ending of that story.
Posted by: Johnny Dollar | Nov 6 2022 20:47 utc | 77
B9k9 | Nov 6 2022 18:42 utc | 62
I agree. Most soldiers want and will go back to normal. Still, the professional soldiers do exactly what you say. They earn a good, even way above average income. I recall having read 5k monthly base, 1k per day in the combat zone. (Wagner, USDs). - For them, there is a market, say in Africa, Latin America, Middle East,... Their combat experience is a big plus, something which western forces lack in this hardness and abundance. Add training capabilities to LDPR militia...
I'm not so sure that Russia can be quickly be brought back to trusting the West. Although it is my dream too and the right thing to do. After all, they are Europeans. Something which European elites openly deny. There was a pundit in one of the public TV talk shows here who claimed that "they look like Europeans but are culturally Asians with another attitude towards violence and death... that's why they kill and have a different mental approach to being killed...". Add Borrell's infamous "garden and jungle" comparison for EU / non-EU areas.
Apropos "Western cultural experience". A loosely related anecdote with emphasis on what you probably didn't allude to: 10 years ago, here in East Germany, we had regular line flights between Berlin, Leipzig and Dresden to/from Moscow and Petersburg. Plus lots of charter flights during holiday seasons (e.g. Christmas / Orthodox New Year). They brought crowds of tourist-shoppers. Everybody liked it, retail and gastronomy in particular. My wine wholesaler was pissed when sanctions stopped it in 2014. At that time, my then neighbor, a lady from Lwow, Ukraine, brushed up her Russian-speaking skills in evening classes, after having been for 25 years in Germany together with her German husband, an alumnus from a USSR University. As a tourist guide, she felt that the over-proportional fraction of Russian-speaking city-, museum- and concert- visitors deserved adequate attention. THIS IS THE "NORMAL" I wish we’ll come back to. Levis are overrated. Fast food too, obviously. (I prefer Pierre Cardin. And I BDS the Evil Empire wherever I can, in spite of having been in 30+ states and met a lot of good, friendly and professional yet colloquial people).
Good luck in in isolating China. Futile attempt. Their Walmart sales are not nothing. But India, Pakistan, Indonesia, even Japan,… 10 times more lucrative. The US should think of something better than that.
Posted by: OttoE | Nov 6 2022 20:47 utc | 78
[9] Russia has yet to deploy its most lethal conventional weaponry
What weaponry/systems is that they have not yet deployed?
Posted by: Bill Smith | Nov 6 2022 20:49 utc | 79
[38] So in this respect, it is a game-changer.
Why is it a game changer? The Russian 'withdrawal' was ignored when all those ships left Odessa the day or so after Russia withdrew. Who has seen these 'written' guarantees that is claimed Ukraine gave? What do they say?
Posted by: Bill Smith | Nov 6 2022 20:59 utc | 80
@Brother Ma #69 youre right i have no doubt the russians have very creative ways to sort of close the tech gap and defeat a lot of that gap by simple creativty, us relies too much on complicated bullshit technology, HOWEVER, as far as defeating an entire fleet of say 1000 550 pound pallet sized satellites in the starlink constellation, im really not sure russia can do that, despite the very good russian porpoganda against my point, do russians have lasers and what have you, and hackers and super advanced weapons??? their marketing says so, FOR SURE ANDRE MARTYANOV SAYS SO! ...haha..
look ...the pengram has a lot of bloat, but just by sheer force of the amount of bloat they would be more advanced than anyone right? but look at china; they just steal shit, and russia does too, so do the israelis, the americans, my point is , look at what china is capable of and compare to russian "avant gard",,,, and "checkmate" GREAT IDEAS but where is the industrial capacity?
not in russia. not in usa. its in freaking china and germany...ooppps! or was!... and freaking twaiwan... this chips ban on china is like the colombians banning coccaine to tony montana!
anyway, lets hope i get a 15 megaton warhead on my head ;)
Posted by: jayco | Nov 6 2022 21:21 utc | 81
@80
both an ethical and a political game-changer. It's not about ships that leave Odessa (would they took all the criminals with them) but the ones that enter, carrying secret Western weapons shipments. Should the Russians again be able to prove this, they would have the moral high ground (but admittedly I think Russia will need and want to move on Odessa anyway). As to political: for Erdogan the grain shipments are of real importance and he's not going to bow to British instructions there. He wouldn't appreciate another shipload of British or Dutch drones to Odessa (especially since they are not from Bayraktar....). That's realpolitik I think.
Concerning Russia's armoury (79): well, who knows? At the very least, their top-notch tank divisions have not entered the Ukraine as far as I know, but as the Germans may remember, they may appear rather suddenly, but only if really really necessary - remember Kursk.
Posted by: anthony | Nov 6 2022 21:30 utc | 82
@ Republicofscotland | Nov 6 2022 19:52 utc | 68
Is it possible that peace talks might be in the cards.
There certainly is a need for it, the problem is that the US has a great difficulty finding anyone who can play those cards. I have joked that the State Dept. motto -- Diplomacy In Action -- is really diplomacy inaction. State's diplomacy entirely consists of sanctions these days. Antony Blinken practicing diplomacy? He is not capable of it, because the US is a world hegemon and has had no need for diplomacy. Just follow the "rules-based order!"
Posted by: Don Bacon | Nov 6 2022 21:44 utc | 83
joe biden and the geniuses in power right now have banned "smart" us citizens from working in chieeeena! in SOFTWARE lol AS IF asians slavs and west asians cant code without mit caltech douchebags. joe should put the kamal on a "learn to code"(bichezzz) tour
Posted by: but SHIB | Nov 6 2022 21:46 utc | 84
Of the neatrly 5,000 satelites in orbit. usa has nearly 3,000.https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.statista.com/statistics/264472/number-of-satellites-in-orbit-by-operating-country/&ved=2ahUKEwjGhKWoyJr7AhUz7TgGHaZDCXoQFnoECA0QAQ&usg=AOvVaw0SypIcDWIYSCTv54nCfUXg">https://www.statista.com/statistics/264472/number-of-satellites-in-orbit-by-operating-country/&ved=2ahUKEwjGhKWoyJr7AhUz7TgGHaZDCXoQFnoECA0QAQ&usg=AOvVaw0SypIcDWIYSCTv54nCfUXg">https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.statista.com/statistics/264472/number-of-satellites-in-orbit-by-operating-country/&ved=2ahUKEwjGhKWoyJr7AhUz7TgGHaZDCXoQFnoECA0QAQ&usg=AOvVaw0SypIcDWIYSCTv54nCfUXg
this will change rapidly. The new head of Rosmoscos Dmitry Rogozin aims to launch a satelite per day by next year.
Posted by: hankster | Nov 6 2022 22:11 utc | 85
calculation | Nov 6 2022 13:42 utc | 7
"Without reliable estimates how is it possible to determine if the Russian strategy is working or not working."
I have reliable estimates. Around 6,000 Russian KIA with a total of around 11,000 KIA for the allies as a whole.
For Ukraine and associated mercenaries around 70,000 KIA.
Russia maintains 1:6 casualty rates. For the strategy to work 1:4 casualty rate is minimally needed, ergo, we can safely say the strategy is working.
Posted by: Haassaan | Nov 6 2022 22:13 utc | 86
" [9] Russia has yet to deploy its most lethal conventional weaponry
What weaponry/systems is that they have not yet deployed?
Posted by: Bill Smith | Nov 6 2022 20:49 utc | 79 "
Sharks with laser beams.
Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | Nov 6 2022 22:16 utc | 87
Why does the US seem more afraid of NK then Russia ?
Posted by: Deplorable Commisar | Nov 6 2022 15:28 utc | 27
"Seem" being the key word here. As in they "seem" to be more afraid of North Korea to you. And you have been consistently wrong, so something "seems" to be something in your eyes in reality is likely the opposite.
If you think USA is more afraid of NK, than it would "seem" your cognitive abilities are poor.
Posted by: Haassaan | Nov 6 2022 22:29 utc | 88
" Simply put.
Risk benefit is massively in NKs favour.
Posted by: jpc | Nov 6 2022 20:30 utc | 76 "
In other words, the US is more sure of North Korea retaliating then it is of Russia retaliating. That's not good as I would think the US would fear both equally.
Posted by: Deplorable Commisar | Nov 6 2022 22:31 utc | 89
" If you think USA is more afraid of NK, than it would "seem" your cognitive abilities are poor.
Posted by: Haassaan | Nov 6 2022 22:29 utc | 88 "
How many NK bridges has NATO attacked recently ? NK ports attacked ? How many NK soldiers have, openly supplied, Western weapons killed ?
Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | Nov 6 2022 22:35 utc | 90
Can anyone provide reliable information on the situation regarding General Alexander Lapin? The western media is claiming that he has been sacked for his "failure" to hold the Kharkiv region of Ukraine back in September. There are even stories claiming that his body was found in a river in Russia. All of this seems fake, but it has been actively promoted by AAP and Reuters, and amplified across multiple western media outlets.
Posted by: Rousillon | Nov 6 2022 22:51 utc | 91
on yesterdays musk thread. today comes probably something that would give everyone a giggle.
Elon Musk said that journalists who have the pronoun "they / them" in their profile will pay 16 dollars a month for account verification, not eight, since "they" is plural.
LGBT people have never been trolled like this before.
Posted by: hankster | Nov 6 2022 23:13 utc | 92
@90
North Korea is the gift that keeps on giving to the US because it is the un-ended war that justifies the US desire to maintain a presence in the area. The US keeps South Korea under its thumb with 30,000 US troops, command authority over South Korea's large military, a US Air Force base one air-hour from Beijing, plus bases and many troops in nearby Japan. The US recently flew bombers over South Korea to remind North Korea of the complete destruction of its country by US aerial bombing seventy years ago.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Nov 6 2022 23:23 utc | 93
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 6 2022 17:19 utc | 48
A response to Sladkov https://twitter.com/failure1991/status/1589317988108292096
Posted by: Peter Williams | Nov 6 2022 23:32 utc | 94
@ hankster
Oh dammit, I might have to start liking Musk now, stickler for correct English language usage that I am . . .
Posted by: malenkov | Nov 6 2022 23:33 utc | 95
@ hankster | Nov 6 2022 23:13 utc | 92 with the musk report of doubling the pronoun they/them folks account verification cost for Twitter....LOL!!!
Maybe there is hope for teaching people to talk about mixed economies instead of capitalism/socialism/whateverism and then public/private finance.....but this is a Ukraine thread, sorry.
Regarding Ukraine.....I just scanned Reuters and it is mid-page before one sees anything about Ukraine and then some ditty about Z saying Russia is suffering heavy losses.
US midterms and a full moon on Tuesday.
Posted by: psychohistorian | Nov 6 2022 23:43 utc | 96
Posted by: Parfum | Nov 6 2022 16:44 utc | 42
Here's the problem. Russia seems a squirt gun against the paper tiger. They need to be a flame thrower.
Nay, my good sir, a "squirt gun" is the ide
Posted by: Sarlat La Canède | Nov 7 2022 0:02 utc | 97
Posted by: but SHIB | Nov 6 2022 21:46 utc | 84
kamal on a "learn to code"(bichezzz) tour
It's been years since I've seen a yanqui or limey coding. They're all "agile coaches", "developer advocates " or "product owners" overseeing hordes of Chinese and Indian coders via zoom ...
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 7 2022 0:02 utc | 98
Bloody hell !
Here's the problem. Russia seems a squirt gun against the paper tiger. They need to be a flame thrower.A 'squirt gun', which I presume to be a water pistol, is, is, the ideal weapon against a paper tiger !!
More oxo ! And whisky !
Love to all etc..
Posted by: Sarlat La Canède | Nov 7 2022 0:06 utc | 99
,I guess by now many will have raed Grayzone's expose Leaked documents: British spies constructing secret terror army in Ukraine which details by way of a leaked document tranche, the efforts of a cadre of englander former military especially navy special boat service & intelligence 'hi flyers' to grab some of that lovely cash floating about since amerika foolishly decided to blow it's tax revenue on blowing up roads & bridges in the Ukraine rather than building roads & bridges in amerika.
At one point the greedy little englanders quote GBP £900,000 per man per year to place saboteurs in Crimea, which sorta tells us how much these scum are motivated by economic issues rather than 'liberty' freedom & apple pie.
The entire episode is enlightening in the sense that this one particular groups efforts to emulate Le Mesurier's efforts with the white caps in Syria, gives a pretty strong indication of where england's interest in Ukraine really lies especially given the recent lack of success they have had. some 3 power poles in Crimea were knocked over on the weekend, plus of course the failure to destroy Kerch bridge and the last farce of attacking Russia's protection squadron for the grain deal by sending drones down an established 'humanitarian' corridor which didn't damage much other than the grain deal.
I notice that today's graun claims that amerikan officials are pressuring Zelensky to at least pretend to talk with Russia lest everyone come down with Ukraine fatigue and wonder if maybe everyone has been considering some aspects of this conflict arse about face.
We all assume that Johnson went to Ukraine to lean on Zelensky to stop his talks with Russia back in March as england being amerika's messenger, but given that thus far it has been england who Russia claims to have proof of blowing the pipelines, attacking Russian ships etc, is it not possible that it has been the englanders who have been really driving the thing from the get go.
It is they who rabbit on about a 'special relationship' with amerika then stick their paws out for save Ukie funds, their economy is the most buggered in europe next to Ukraine so could it be that englander military brass who have a big say in what the Tory party in power does, are pushing this war along just for their own selfish interests?
Of course amerika had to have been on board to a certain extent but it seems that it has been england who has been trying to do all the really big stuff to crank up the conflict so it isn't a stretch really to imagine that it is england who are making this war spin outta control just for the sake of a few quid.
Posted by: Debsisdead | Nov 7 2022 0:14 utc | 100
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[Forwarded from MoD Russia]
⚡ Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation in Ukraine (6 November 2022)
Part 1 (read Part 2 (https://t.me/mod_russia_en/4894))
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation.
💥 In Kupyansk direction, 1 battalion tactical group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), supported by a group of nationalists, attempted to attack Russian forces' positions at a narrow front stretch towards Novosyolovskoye (Lugansk People's Republic).
◽ The enemy units have been stopped by strikes launched by Army Aviation, heavy flamethrower systems, artillery, and intensive action of Russian forces. These units are under fire attacks.
◽ Moreover, an enemy company tactical group attempted to attack Russian positions near Kotlyarovka (Kharkov region).
◽ Firepower's operation has resulted in the frustration of the attack launched by the AFU units.
Up to 200 Ukrainian personnel, 8 tanks, 9 armoured fighting vehicles, and 8 pickups have been eliminated in the abovementioned direction.
💥 In Krasny Liman direction, 2 enemy battalion tactical groups made an unsuccessful attempt to launch an attack towards Ploshchanka, Artyomovka, Stelmakhovka (Lugansk People's Republic), and Yampolovka (Donetsk People's Republic).
◽ Attacks launched by Russian artillery and Army Aviation have resulted in the elimination of up to 250 Ukrainian personnel and nationalists, 2 tanks, 4 armoured fighting vehicles, 1 Grad multiple-launch rocket system (MLRS), 1 self-propelled artillery system, and 12 motor vehicles.
◽ In addition, a high-precision attack launched by Russian Aerospace Forces has resulted in the elimination of up to 100 militants from nationalist groups, and mercenaries, including about 40 mercenaries from the USA, United Kingdom, and Poland, as well as 10 armoured fighting vehicles.
💥 In South Donetsk direction, Russian artillery units and assault groups have neutralised AFU units near Pavlovka and Novomikhaylovka (Donetsk People's Republic).
◽ Up to 70 Ukrainian personnel, 1 tank, 1 infantry fighting vehicle, 4 pickups, and 2 U.S.-manufactured M-777 howitzers have been eliminated.
💥 In Nikolayev–Krivoy Rog direction, up to 1 enemy mechanised infantry company attacked Russian forces' positions towards Sablukovka and Pyatikhatki (Kherson region).
◽ Firepower's operation, and successful action of Russian units have resulted in driving the enemy back to initial positions.
◽ Over 50 Ukrainian personnel, 8 armoured fighting vehicles, and 10 motor vehicles have been eliminated.
◽ Moreover, 2 AFU self-propelled artillery systems have been destroyed by loitering ordnance near Novopetrovka (Kherson region).
💥 Operational-Tactical and Army Aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery have neutralised 1 command post of 72nd Mechanised Infantry Brigade of the AFU near Prechistovka (Donetsk People's Republic), as well as 67 artillery units at their firing positions, manpower and hardware in 184 areas.
◽ 1 ordnance depot of 65th Mechanised Brigade of the AFU has been destroyed near Zaporozhye.
◽ Moreover, an attack launched at the ordnance depot of the AFU near Krasnoarmeysk (Donetsk People's Republic) has resulted in the destruction of 120 rockets launched by U.S.-manufactured HIMARS MLRS, 250 rockets launched by Smerch MLRS, and 2 transport-loading vehicles.
◽ Fighter Aviation of Russian Aerospace Forces has shot down 1 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) over Jarylgach Island (Kherson region).
#MoD #Russia #Ukraine #report
@mod_russia_en
⚡ Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation in Ukraine (6 November 2022)
Part 2 (read Part 1 (https://t.me/mod_russia_en/4893))
💥 Air defence facilities have shot down 16 UAVs near Plodovoye, Vishnevoye, Lvovo, Pershotravnevoye, Ishchenka, Bruskinskoye, Novaya Kakhvoka (Kherson region), Snigiryovka (Nikolayev region), Nikolskoye, Volnovakha, Lyubovka and Novoandreyevka (Donetsk People's Republic).
◽ 8 rockets, including 6 launched by U.S.-manufactured HIMARS MLRS, have been intercepted near Antonovka (Kherson region), and Donetsk, 2 rockets launched by Olkha MLRS near Antonovka (Kherson region), as well as 1 U.S.-manufactured HARM anti-radiation missile near Novaya Kakhovka (Kherson region).
◽ Moreover, 1 Ukrainian Tochka-U ballistic missile has been shot down near Kuzemovka (Lugansk People's Republic).
📊 In total, 331 airplanes and 169 helicopters, 2,452 unmanned aerial vehicles, 386 air defence missile systems, 6,398 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 883 fighting vehicles equipped with MLRS, 3,560 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 7,086 units of special military hardware have been destroyed during the special military operation.
***
⚠️ Kiev regime continues its provocations aimed at creating a possible technological disaster at the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant.
◽ Over the past 24 hours, AFU artillery units have launched 15 large-calibre projectiles at Energodar, and the territory adjacent to the nuclear power plant.
◽ The shelling was conducted from AFU-controlled areas of Vysshetarasovka and Kapulovka (Dnepropetrovsk region).
💥 Russian artillery's counterattack has resulted in the destruction of 1 Ukrainian Msta-B howitzer, and 2 AFU vehicles.
◽ The radiation environment at the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant remains normal.
#MoD #Russia #Ukraine #report
@mod_russia_en
Posted by: summary | Nov 6 2022 13:09 utc | 1