Rennie can't turn rocks into diamonds but not all hope's lost for Wallabies
Dave Rennie is a smart operator, but he’s no miracle worker.
Contrary to what’s been said over the past few weeks, although there may have been much chopping and changing to the Wallabies team throughout the year, you can bet your bottom dollar that Dave Rennie has a very clear idea in his head who would make the line-up in a World Cup knockout match if it were being played next weekend.
There’s a narrative going around that Rennie needs to settle on a first-choice side now but that’s not the approach the Kiwi adopted when he led the Chiefs to back-to-back titles in 2012 and 2013. Every week, five or six players would shuffle in and out of the run-on XV, bar a few men who simply couldn’t be left out. Come the finals series, however, Rennie picked a team and stuck with it – and it paid massive dividends.
Undoubtedly, Rennie is taking a similar approach to his stint in charge of the Wallabies. A clear selection pattern has emerged in some positions and the vast majority of punters could select the bulk of the starting side that Rennie would opt for if Saturday’s match against Wales were a World Cup final.
James Slipper, Dave Porecki and Allan Alaalatoa have missed just a handful of matches between them and are the clear-cut first-choice front row.
In the loose forwards, Michael Hooper is nailed on at No 7 and Rob Valetini has started all but two Tests this season at the back of the scrum (he was rested against Italy and shifted to the blindside flank in the second Bledisloe Cup clash).
Nic White has been a constant at halfback, a fit Samu Kerevi is world-class and Len Ikitau has made the No 13 jersey his own since debuting last year.
Throw in Tom Wright and Marika Koroibete, and you have a consistent spine of players who Rennie has called upon week after week.
There are a number of strong back-ups across the board too, with Angus Bell, Taniela Tupou, Folau Fainga’a, Pete Samu, Jake Gordon and Hunter Paisami regularly featuring in the 23 or stepping into starting roles when injuries have forced Rennie’s hand.
Said injuries have complicated things in a few positions, of course – as well as the unavailability of some players throughout the season.
The locking situation is somewhat unclear, with Rory Arnold and Will Skelton getting limited opportunities due to the above issues. Matt Philip, Cadeyrn Neville and Nick Frost have all been afforded plenty of minutes throughout the year while Jed Holloway has split his time between the second and back rows.
The No 10 jersey remains the biggest concern, with Quade Cooper ostensibly the first-choice in the position but getting just one start there this year. Bernard Foley is serviceable, as is James O’Connor – but they’re not going to win Australia a World Cup.
Perhaps the biggest blight of Rennie’s career has now been bringing in a new talent at flyhalf but the only real option in that role is Noah Lolesio. If Rennie had stuck with Lolesio throughout 2021 and 2022, would the Wallabies be in a better position heading into next year’s tournament?
Outside of Lolesio, the cupboard is bare. The likes of Tane Edmed, Ben Donaldson and Will Harrison will never be greats of the game and putting Australia’s faith in one of that trio to lead them to glory in 2027 will backfire spectacularly.
That really emphasises the biggest problem in Australia – and it’s not Rennie’s selection policy.
The fact of the matter is that the players are simply not as good as the generational talents of the past. Perhaps that’s a product of the resources in Australia or the ongoing battle for talent with the NRL, but it’s clear as day that the youngsters coming through the ranks aren’t up to the standards of a top-three Test rugby nation – and that means no matter who’s in charge of the Wallabies, they’re always going to struggle to compete with the likes of New Zealand, Ireland, France and England.
That doesn’t mean they can’t grab wins against those nations. The recent loss to Ireland showed that it’s entirely possible for Australia to remain competitive with the best sides in the world, but there’ll also be a few 40-point thumpings along the way. The Australia of 2022 is no different to the Ireland side of the early 2000s, or a post-2003 England.
In years gone by, the Wallabies would be able to put out a second-string side and still put Italy to the sword – but that’s just not the case anymore, as Rennie found out in Florence.
A World Cup title looks out of reach for the Wallabies at present but with Rennie at the helm, there’s the distinct possibility that a semi-final finish is in reach – and that would be a mighty fine achievement for the current Australian side. Should Rennie’s men top their pool in France (their main competitor is Wales), they’ll almost certainly face off with Argentina in the quarters, giving them a very real chance of progressing to the next stage of the competition.
They could even cause an upset in the semi-finals – as they almost did in Dublin in the weekend gone.
But ultimately, Australia’s lack of success this year or next won’t be a result of too much chopping and changing by Rennie. There are bigger issues at play.
Comments on RugbyPass
Christie says he’s ‘so much more than English'. Yes, you people of mixed immigrant descent are so superior to your hosts.
4 Go to commentsGood article on referees, and one in particular, and then the analysis on the Saints game. Thanks Nick. I had not seen the game, so had a look before commenting. The quality of the rugby is just sky high, and the one thing I pick out, in addition to all your points, is how very relaxed Pearce is, always calm, always in control, instructions and responses clear and concise. He is very clearly enjoying his work. That is one very good Northampton team. They conceded a fair number of turnovers early, but always had the defence to deny any significant advantage to Saracens. The other game I watched on the weekend was Toulouse and Pau, and was very impressed by the quality of rugby in both. The level of ambition very high, passing very accurate a high % of time, wonderful stepping/seam finding ability by players 1 - 15. Just exhilarating rugby to watch. The first try of the game by Pau was a thing of beauty. I would judge the quality of rugby in the Premiership/Top14/URC/Champions Cup is well above where we are in Australia and NZ atm.
27 Go to commentsWell said Aurelie, your refereeing is excellent. Keep up the good work, You may get to ref the next Womens Rugby World Cup Final if the French fall at the wayside. There is really only one competitor and that is Aimee.
1 Go to commentsInteresting and all these players are making their mark and I love to see all the nations improving. However, if you ask the main team, England, who else they would add to their team if possible, it is the raw speed of Jaz Joyce. The Red Roses have so much all round talent, they recognise that raw speed is the one thing it is difficult to counter.
1 Go to commentsDifferent countries, different expectations. Foster did not deliver enough over four years to keep NZers happy, even if the All Blacks had have won the final he would still be known as the coach who lost back to back tests at home, lost a home series, first losses to Argentina etc. Other countries would have been happy with 68% win rate and making a WC final. I’d rather the All Blacks be consistently dominant rather than dominant for 7 weeks once every four years.
10 Go to commentsHi Brett, it would be tragic if jobs in Aussie rugby couldn't be found for Cheika and Friend.
1 Go to commentsHe’s looking pretty flash. Would like to see him in a black jersey.
1 Go to commentsSiya is our captain. He’s 32 years old and there are a lot of hungry guys coming through. He’s probably got another 2 seasons at test level and I’d like to see him remain captain for as long as he’s good enough to make the team.
1 Go to commentsGood luck…Theyrecgoing to need it. I dont think the elderly silverblack 7s will make the playoffs
1 Go to commentsIt’s been class to see him get a proper run of games injury free & build some form, and blimey his ceiling on performance is high, it’s still unknown how good he can be because he always got injury setbacks which always tend to affect the most explosive athletes. But he’s really showing what he’s made of now, and still only 23 ! Proper chuffed for him . Come on you saints !
2 Go to commentsOllie Blyth Lafferty shows promise.
4 Go to commentsAverage career length in the NFL is 3.3 years. Shorter for running backs (2.6), and wide receivers (2.8). Undrafted players (like LRZ) average is 1.75 years. These lower numbers are offset by kickers, long snappers etc. Rugby career are 3 or 4 times longer. Average age for NFL draft is 23, which is LRZ's age. However the draft kids are ready for action, with many years of high school and college experience. They still have a steep NFL learning curve, but they have tons of muscle memory and mental models about the game. He does not. Lets say LRZ gets into the Chiefs practice squad, and maybe makes it to the game day roster for some of the 17-20 games in the 2024-2025 season. And let’s say they give him some snaps as a 1st and 2nd down running back (usually a shared role). That’s maybe 10 or 15 touches per game, maybe 100 for the season. As a wide receiver it’s likely to be less. It could be more if he is picked for more snaps, but he would need to be elite vs some incredible athletes with tons more experience. Unlikely. And that’s the first year of his 1.75 year NFL career. Of course he could be exceptional and stretch that career to 3 years, or 4. But the chances of him becoming an NFL star, with a long career, are very small indeed. Even if LRZ can do it, the idea that there could be a trend of many rugby players beating those odds is fanciful.
15 Go to commentsI always wonder how the narrative would have been different if Ramos didn't miss that penalty in the QF or if France went for the line rather than posts. Or if England scored when they were 5m out. It's easy to say you prefer to win the world cup when you win it but not being a dominant team inbetween is why SA will never be in the same conversation as the 2015 All Blacks. We lose to France in the world cup and Rassie would have resigned, people would have questioned why he went with such an old squad and the Springboks 2019 victory will just be seen as lucky. That’s the danger of putting all your eggs into the world cup. Your team never defines an era like England, Australia, NZ and soon France and Ireland will.
10 Go to commentsAnother point about this is you’ve got to know your ref and do preparation on him before the game. Luke Pearce has low tolerance for time wasting, so it’s not a good idea to push his buttons in this facet of the game.
27 Go to commentsGreat to read a proper review of his performance instead of people moaning about him hurrying up that goal kicking because it was within the time limit. My argument is that the kicker broke the general time wasting law even though he didn't break the shot clock law. A valid point though is that they should be encouraging more refs to ref this way and teams should know what to expect every week.
27 Go to commentsGetting very twitchy there’s still no sign of Cokanasiga signing on…
1 Go to commentsGreat précis of the situation Jamie. WP is the epitome of a residency player, one who bought the dream and invested his all. As for the pathway, hopefully McGuigan will ensure things improve since he appears to know what he’s doing, so far at least. That said it will take time for sure. Prop is probably a position that needs very specialist coaching and conditioning from a very early stage more so than most and it goes back, once again, to the investment in players at clubs and schools. Scotland are nowhere near the level of English or Irish schools structures and as long as that remains the case, it’s going to be a struggle.
4 Go to commentsBurke, Spink and Hartley is a highly promising midfield axis for Salaries to build their backline around.
7 Go to commentsGreat news. Hope he turns out as good as Glen Jackson
7 Go to commentsI support strict policing of the 5 second law, however I question if a scrum, which takes time out of the game itself, is the correct sanction. Maybe the law should be the ref calls “use it 5” and if the ball hasn't been used after 5 seconds, the ball is deemed to be out, there's no offside line anymore and the yappy little scrum-half is fair game.
27 Go to comments