Welcome to the record breaking October 2020 edition of Electric Vehicle [EV] company news. October saw another month of huge interest and news on EVs, in particular in Tesla (TSLA) and the newer EV start-ups.
We also saw a new all-time record for global EV sales and market share for September 2020, smashing the past record. This was mostly due to a massive surge in Europe EV sales and a strong pick up in China EV sales. Europe's YTD EV market share is now at 9% suggesting we may soon enter an era of above 10% market share in Europe with China not so far behind at 5.2% YTD EV market share.
UBS forecast EV/ICE parity by 2024. UBS posed the question why would anyone buy an ICE vehicle from 2025? The only reason I can think of is that availability maybe the problem, as the EV metal miners would be unlikely to meet demand in a "100% EV-world" by 2025.
Chinese new all-stars NIO and XPeng reported excellent September sales results. We also saw Fisker Inc., Lordstown Motors and Hyliion Holdings all complete their SPAC mergers and become listed this past month.
Global electric car sales as of end September 2020
Global electric car sales finished September 2020 with a record breaking 345,000 sales for the month (smashing the past record by over 50,000), up 91% on September 2019, with a record market share of 4.9% for September 2020, and 3.4% YTD. Tesla continues to dominate the pack.
Note 68% of all global electric car sales in September 2020 were 100% battery electric vehicles (BEVs), the balance being hybrids.
China electric car sales were 131,000 in September 2020, up 66% on September 2019. Electric car market share in China for September was 6.3%, and 5.2% YTD. A September 2020 report from Bloomberg Green stated: "China's updated NEV target for 2025 is 15% to 25%. For 2035 the NEV target will be 50% to 60%."
Europe electric car sales were 160,000 in September 2020, up 166% on September 2019. Europe electric car market share was 12% in September, and 9.0% YTD. In September Norway plug-in EVs sale hit 82% market share.
US electric car sales were not reported by EV Sales in September 2020 as it appears many ICE brands don't want to publish their EV sales numbers.
Note: The above sales include light commercial vehicles.
Note: An acknowledgement to Jose Pontes of EV Sales and EV Volumes for his excellent work compiling all the electric car sales quoted above and below.
Global electric car sales by manufacturer for September 2020
Source: EV-Sales Blogspot
Note: XPeng is not yet shown in the table above but are rising fast with 8,578 sales in Q3, 2020, a 266% YoY increase.
EV sales forecast to really take off from 2022 as affordability kicks in
The chart below aligns with my research that electric car sales will really take off after 2022, when my model forecasts electric and ICE car price parity.
BloombergNEF 2020 forecast for annual electric vehicle sales are:
- 10% share by 2025 (~9m pa)
- 28% share by 2030 (~24m pa)
- 58% share by 2040 (~54m pa)
Note: Since Tesla Battery day these forecasts are likely to increase.
BNEF updated 2020 EV forecasts
The BNEF 2020 forecast with the raw numbers and country share
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance [BNEF] 2020 EV report
EV market news
On October 16 Bloomberg reported:
Battery fires put BMW and Ford on back foot as EVs take off. Companies join GM, Hyundai in having models go up in flames. First, Hyundai Motor Co. made headlines about its electric cars catching fire. Five days later, it was General Motors Co. and Ford Motor Co. The next day, it was BMW AG......“What we’re seeing with new fires has more to do with the landslide of new EV models and higher sales in the last couple of years -- there are more fires because there are more EVs,” said Sam Jaffe, managing director at Cairn Energy Research Advisors...... “Pursuing a higher battery density will normally mean you need to sacrifice safety"..... “Batteries are a dance of optimization between a myriad different design, cost, safety, and performance factors,” said Vivas Kumar, a principal consultant at industry adviser Benchmark Mineral Intelligence and previously a member of Tesla Inc.’s battery supply chain team. “If this trend of recalls due to fires continues, it will force OEMs to consider an increased emphasis on safety by foregoing progress on some of those other elements.”
On October 20 Seeking Alpha reported: "New Jersey follows California's suit in banning gas car sales....by 2035."
On October 22 The Guardian reported:
Electric cars 'as cheap to manufacture' as regular models by 2024. Analysis by UBS suggests shift away from fossil fuel vehicles may be imminent.....The extra cost of manufacturing battery electric cars versus their fossil fuel equivalents will diminish to just $1,900 (£1,470) per car by 2022, and disappear completely by 2024, according to research by the investment bank UBS. The research is based on detailed analysis of batteries from the seven largest manufacturers. Reaching cost parity with the internal combustion engine [ICE] is seen as a key milestone in the world’s transition away from burning fossil fuels......UBS said it expected battery costs to drop to below $100 per kilowatt hour (kWh), a key milestone, by 2022......“There are not many reasons left to buy an ICE car after 2025,” said Tim Bush, a UBS analyst.....The rapid reduction of battery costs is expected to trigger a faster switch to electric vehicles than previously expected. Globally UBS said electric cars’ market share would reach 17% by 2025. By 2030 electric cars should account for 40% of global sales.
Note: My updated forecast is for EV market share to reach 20% by 2025 and 70% by 2030, driven by Tesla's Battery Day announcement to have a US$25,000 EV in about 3 years (~2024) and EV/ICE cost parity by 2023. Renault will soon have a US$23,000 EV ready for Europe.
On October 22 CNBC reported:
China’s electric car strategy is starting to go global – and the U.S. is lagging behind...... “Over the next five years we anticipate Chinese players across the EV supply chain to aggressively enter the overseas market,” UBS analysts wrote in a note Wednesday......In just one sign of how far ahead China has progressed in electric vehicle development, out of 142 lithium-ion battery megafactories under construction globally, 107 are set for China, versus nine in the U.S.
On October 23 Reuters reported:
Biden campaign tells miners it supports domestic production of EV metals. Joe Biden’s campaign has privately told U.S. miners it would support boosting domestic production of metals used to make electric vehicles, solar panels and other products crucial to his climate plan, according to three sources familiar with the matter, in a boon for the mining industry.
On October 29 Green car Congress reported:
China sets its sights on global EV dominance. The world’s largest automotive market, China, is looking to become a dominant player in the rising global electric vehicle market. Chinese EV manufacturers are expected to start expanding overseas, while Beijing already controls a large part of the global EV supply chain, beginning with critical minerals processing. China is the world’s top EV market, and the government is looking to have new energy vehicle [NEV] sales at up to 25 percent of all sales by 2025, although it is not looking to ban sales of new gasoline-powered vehicles anytime soon.
On October 31 FleetNews reported:
Electrified cars outsell diesel for first time across Europe. Felipe Munoz, global analyst at JATO Dynamics, said: “The shift from ICEs to EVs is finally taking place. Although this is largely down to government policies and incentives, consumers are also now ready to adopt these new technologies.”
EV company news
Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA)
Tesla is currently ranked the number 1 globally with 18% global market share. Tesla is 3rd in Europe with 9% market share, and number 2 in China with 12% market share. Tesla is still assumed to be the number 1 electric car seller in the US by far. Tesla Model 3 (13% share) continues to dominate global sales by model, with over triple the market share of 2nd place Renault Zoe (4%).
On October 2, Teslarati reported:
Tesla finally has a date for its India entry. The long-awaited arrival of Tesla’s electric vehicles is coming in 2021 after Musk indicated that next year would be the time when the company finally attempts to enter the competitive Indian car market.
On October 2, Green Car Reports reported:
Tesla reports record deliveries for Q3 2020. Tesla has broken a new record for vehicle deliveries, claiming it delivered 139,300 vehicles globally July through September of 2020, according to preliminary counts released Friday morning. That Q3 result is up dramatically versus 2020 Q1 and Q2 numbers, which were 88,400 and 90,650, respectively. It also handily beat the previous record of 112,000 deliveries in Q4 of 2019. Production reported for the quarter that just ended was higher than the 145,036 vehicles Tesla delivered for the quarter. That included combined production at Tesla’s Fremont, California, plant and in China.
On October 7 Seeking Alpha reported:
Tesla wins Street-high $578 price target as New Street sees 'hyper growth.' Tesla gains a new bull as New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu upgrades shares to Buy from Neutral and raises his price target to a Street-high $578 from $400 previously, saying the company has a "decade of hyper growth ahead" and has "no credible competition on the horizon."..... "Amazon has traded in the 50x-100x earnings range for over a decade, and we expect Tesla to follow suit," Ferragu writes.
On October 12 Teslarati reported: "Tesla’s debt rating moves closer to ‘investment grade’ following S&P boost."
On October 16 Seeking Alpha reported:
Morgan Stanley hails Tesla's mobility service upside...Morgan Stanley is positive on Tesla's mobility/transport as a service model, also known as TaaS..... "We forecast a launch of 1,000 cars (from the existing fleet) in Tesla Mobility by 2021, rising to 500k cars by 2030, which would account for 2.7% of our Tesla global fleet estimate (18.6mm units) by that year.... our valuation of Tesla Mobility rises to $42bn ($41/share) vs. $7.3bn ($7/share) previously.
Morgan Stanley's Tesla PTs - Bull, Base, & Bear
Note: Seeking Alpha gives a great summary of most analysts updated Tesla price targets here.
On October 21 Seeking Alpha reported on Tesla's Q3 earnings results:
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.76 beats by $0.16; GAAP EPS of $0.27 misses by $0.16. Revenue of $8.77B (+39.2% Y/Y) beats by $460M. Automotive margin of 27.7% vs. 24.1% consensus, 25.4% in Q2.
On October 21 CNBC reported:
Tesla shares jump 5% after reporting fifth consecutive quarter of profits......Automotive revenue comprised $7.6 billion, about 91% of the total for the quarter. Automotive gross margins, excluding regulatory credits, rose from 18.7% to 23.7% sequentially. Tesla raked in $397 million in regulatory credits during the quarter nearly doubling the amount it made from these “green” credits year-over-year..... (Guidance remains at) 500,000 deliveries in 2020.
Tesla's revenue breakup - 91% from automotive; balance from Energy generation & Storage and Services & Other
Source: CNBC
Source: CNBC
On October 23 Bloomberg reported:
Tesla is recalling about 30,000 imported vehicles in China. Tesla Inc. is recalling about 30,000 imported Model S and Model X vehicles in China because of suspension problems....The company is recalling vehicles made between Sept. 17, 2013, and Jan. 15, 2018.
On October 26 Electrek reported:
Tesla announces up to $12 billion investment for electric car and battery factories in just 2 years......."Owing and subject to the foregoing as well as the pipeline of announced projects under development and all other continuing infrastructure growth, we currently expect our capital expenditures to be at the high end of our range of $2.5 to $3.5 billion in 2020 and increase to $4.5 to $6 billion in each of the next two fiscal years"......
Tesla's next EVs - Cybertruck, ATV, Roadster 2, Semi
Investors can read my June 2019 Blog post: "Tesla - A Look At The Positives And The Negatives,"where I rated the stock a buy. It was trading at USD 196.80 (post 5:1 stock split is equivalent to USD 39.36). Or my latest Tesla article on Trend Investing - "Tesla Just Put The Accelerator Down On The EV And Battery Boom."
Volkswagen Group [Xetra:VOW](OTCPK:VWAGY) (OTCPK:VLKAF)/ Audi (OTCPK:AUDVF)/ Lamborghini/ Porsche (OTCPK:POAHF)/ Skoda
Volkswagen is currently ranked the number 2 top-selling global electric car manufacturer with 6% market share, and number 1 in Europe with 10% market share.
On October 11, CleanTechnica reported: "Norwegian importer expects EVs to claim 90% of Volkswagen sales in 2021."
On October 13, Automotive News China reported: "Audi, FAW sign deal on new EV joint venture."
On October 22, Automotive News China reported: "VW gains share despite sales decline in first 3 quarters."
On October 22, Automotive News China reported:
VW-backed battery maker Guoxuan eyes 100-GWh capacity by 2025. Chinese battery maker Guoxuan High-tech, which is backed by Volkswagen Group, plans to have annual battery manufacturing capacity of 100 gigawatt-hours by 2025, an official said on Thursday. VW said in May that it planned to pay 1.1 billion euros ($1.3 billion) to acquire 26.5 percent of Guoxuan to become its biggest shareholder.
BYD Co. [SHE: 002594][HK:1211](OTCPK:BYDDY) (OTCPK:OTCPK:BYDDF)
BYD is currently ranked the number 3 globally with 6% global market share, and is ranked number 1 in China with 15% market share.
On October 16, BYD Co. reported: "Bus industry experts put forward strong case for eMobility at BYD UK's keynote 'Building Back Better' Webinar."
On October 20 PRNewswire reported: "Senmiao Technology announces signing of Framework Agreement with BYD to purchase and jointly promote electric vehicles for ride-sharing."
On October 21, BYD Co. reported:
BYD and Hino sign an agreement to establish a joint venture for Commercial Battery Electric Vehicles development. BYD Auto Industry Co. Ltd [BYD] and Hino Motors Ltd. [Hino] signed a joint venture agreement today to set up a new company for commercial battery electric vehicles [BEVs] development. This new venture is scheduled to be established within China in 2021, with BYD and Hino each making a 50% capital investment. It will combine the strengths of both companies to develop BEVs and electric units and will aim to quickly implement the ideal products for customer needs, primarily in the Asian market. The venture plans to initially launch vehicles under the Hino brand in the first half of the 2020s.
BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY), Mini
BMW is currently ranked the number 4 global electric car manufacturer with 6% global market share. BMW is fifth in Europe with 8% market share.
On October 7, BMW Group Reported:
BMW Group posts solid third-quarter sales growth.....With 54,719 units delivered in the third quarter, the company sold 46.6 percent more electrified vehicles than in the same period of the previous year. The new plug-in hybrid variants of the BMW X2*, BMW 3 Series and BMW 5 Series underscore the BMW Group’s leading role in the premium electrified segment in Europe and worldwide. Deliveries of the fully-electric BMW iX3* will begin before the end of 2020. Next year, the BMW Group will continue the systematic electrification of its model line-up, with the fully-electric BMW i4 and the BMW iNEXT. The company plans to have more than seven million electrified vehicles on the roads by 2030; two thirds of them fully-electric. By 2023, the BMW Group will offer customers no fewer than 25 electrified models......
On October 21, Green Car Reports reported: "BMW has made 200,000 of its quirky i3 electric cars."
Beijing Automotive Group Co. (BAIC) [HK:1958) (OTC:BCCMY), SAIC Motor Corporation Limited [SAIC] [CH:600104] (SAIC includes Roewe, MG, Baojun, Maxus) + SAIC/GM JV (Wuling Hong Guang)
SAIC is global number 12 with 3% market share, and number 5 in China with ~6% market share. SGMW (SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile) is global number 11 with 3% market share. If we add the two together SAIC would rank fifth globally.
On October 20, Bloomberg Quint reported:
Chinese firm BAIC’s electric-vehicle unit bets on luxury model for comeback. Beijing Automotive Group Co.’s electric-car unit hopes to put its recent lackluster performance behind it with the launch this weekend of a new high-end model called the Arcfox. Shanghai-listed BAIC BluePark New Energy Technology Co., whose sales plunged almost 80% in the first nine months of this year, should be able to resume year-on-year growth in 2021 with the new lineup, President Liu Yu said in an interview. The Arcfox αT will retail for between 250,000 yuan ($37,360) and 300,000 yuan and be followed by another two models next year, Liu said. He expects total sales of new energy vehicles in China, the world’s largest EV market for five consecutive years, to rise by as much as 30% next year.
On October 27 Shine reported:
SAIC Volkswagen starts production of electric vehicle in Jiading. Shanghai-based automaker SAIC Volkswagen's first electric compact sport-utility vehicle, known as the ID.4 X, was put into production in Jiading District on Tuesday. It indicates that Volkswagen Group's first plant dedicated to producing electric cars based on the new modular electric vehicle platform, known as MEB, has officially started production. It also represents that Shanghai automobile companies are making further progress in the production and manufacturing of new-energy vehicles...... SAIC Volkswagen’s plant with the MEB platform in Jiading District covers an area of 405,600 square meters, with a planned annual production capacity of 300,000 vehicles......It took two years to put the factory into production, with investment of more than 17 billion yuan (US$2.54 billion) by both parties of shareholders.
The SAIC-Volkswagen ID.4 X China production has begun
Renault [FR:RNO] (OTC:RNSDF)/ Nissan (OTCPK:NSANY)/ Mitsubishi (OTCPK:MSBHY, OTCPK:MMTOF)
Renault is ranked number 5 globally with 4% market share, and is currently number 2 in Europe with 9% market share. Nissan is currently ranked number 14 for global electric car sales with 2% market share.
On October 16, Groupe Renault reported:
All-new Twingo electric behind the wheel of the new queen of the city. With Twingo Electric, Renault’s iconic small city car now offers its all-electric engine.......By going all-electric, Twingo is more than ever the queen of the city!
Twingo electric
On October 19 MSN.com reported:
This will be Europe's cheapest electric car come spring. While Europe has certainly had small electric hatches like the Renault Zoe, Nissan Leaf and the SEAT Mii, the subcompact Spring will be less expensive still with a starting price expected to land less than $23,000, prior to any national incentives....The Dacia Spring will be powered by a 26.8-kWh lithium ion battery, giving it a 140-mile range in the slightly optimistic WLTP cycle.
Renault's Dacia 'Spring' compact SUV
On October 21, Groupe Renault reported: "Renault eWays: The group presents two major new energy storage projects."
On October 23 Bloomberg reported:
Renault beats revenue estimates as electric-car sales surge......Although revenue fell 8.2% to 10.37 billion euros ($12.2 billion) in a period still marked by the pandemic, it surpassed the 9.96 billion-euro average of estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The French manufacturer sold fewer passenger cars and trucks in the quarter, but sales of the battery-powered Zoe more than doubled.
Daimler-Mercedes (OTCPK:DDAIF, OTCPK:DDAIY) (Smart - 50% JV between Daimler and Geely)
Mercedes is ranked number 6 globally with 4% market share.
On October 7 Business Insider reported:
Mercedes plans a new slew of EVs, including AMG performance cars and ultra-luxury Maybach models.....It will start producing bigger all-electric models first......Mercedes’ all-new big-car platform, the Electric Vehicle Architecture, will debut with the EQS in 2021. The EQS will be an all-electric, S-Class-like luxury sedan. Following that will be electrified versions of other Mercedes cars, including AMG, Maybach, and G models.
On October 7, Mercedez Benz reported:
......Mercedes-Benz has teased the Vision EQXX, partially revealing it in two images..... “We have to set up a group of engineers to take on an extraordinary task: to build the longest-range and highest efficiency electric car the world has ever seen”, promises Markus Schafer, head of research and development. “This is a serious project, chasing next-generation technologies. We intend to incorporate the learning into the next generation of series production cars”, he adds.
On October 20, Mercedez Benz reported:
Official confirmation: Mercedes EQE, EQE SUV, and EQS SUV (with video). In addition to Mercedes EQS, EQA and EQB, Mercedes has confirmed the upcoming Mercedes EQE limousine and the upcoming luxury SUVs Mercedes EQE SUV and EQS SUV. Out of the 10 planned full electric models we already know 7: Mercedes EQC launched in 2019, Mercedes EQS luxury limousine and EQA and EQB compact SUVs. They will be joined by the Mercedes EQE limousine, the big class SUV based on the EQE and the luxury SUV based on the Mercedes EQS.
Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd (OTCPK:GELYY, HK:0175), Volvo Cars, Kandi Technologies Group (NASDAQ:KNDI), Proton, Lotus
Volvo is currently ranked number 7 in the global electric car manufacturer's sales ranking with 4% global market share.
On October 2, Green Car Reports reported:
2021 Volvo XC40 Recharge electric SUV production begins, US deliveries by January......The Recharge was engineered and developed concurrently with the Polestar 2 by the same Volvo-led engineering teams in Sweden, and with the same designer, Thomas Ingenlath.
On October 22, Green Car Reports reported: "Volvo XC40 Recharge arrives in early 2021, starts at $54,895."
2021 Volvo XC40 Recharge
Hyundai (OTC:HYMTF), Kia (OTC:KIMTF)
Hyundai is currently ranked number 9 in the global electric car manufacturer's sales ranking with 4% global market share.
Kia is currently ranked number 10 in the global electric car manufacturer's sales ranking with 3% global market share.
On October 9, Hyundai reported: "Hyundai Motorsport joins PURE ETCR with Veloster N ETCR showcase."
Hyundai Veloster N ETCR
On October 12 Bloomberg reported:
Hyundai mulls global recall of EV after battery fire reports......Other EV makers including Tesla Inc., Porsche Automobil Holding SE, NIO Inc. and Audi AG have also carried out recalls and investigations in the past due to potential fire risks with their vehicles.
On October 27, Hyundai reported: "Size Matters: Hyundai Motor’s smallest EV revealed." Highlights include:
- "Hyundai revealed teaser images and video of mini EV based on ‘45’ Concept.
- One-of-a-kind EV features Emotion Adaptive Vehicle Control [EAVC] technology.
- Details to come on plans to offer unique mobility experience to young customers."
Hyundai Motor's smallest EV
Peugeot SA [FR:UG][PA:PEUP](OTCPK:PEUGF) (OTCPK:PEUGY)/Citroen, Fiat Chrysler (NYSE:FCAU)
On October 27, Performance Drive reported:
Peugeot e-208 EV more likely for Australia than regular 208. Peugeot Australia is planning to launch a plug-in hybrid [PHEV] version of the 3008 mid-size SUV next year and potentially the electric version of the new 208 – the e-208 – in 2022.
Toyota (NYSE:TM)/ Lexus
On October 6, Toyota reported:
Toyota and Hino to jointly Develop Class 8 fuel cell electric truck for North America. Hydrogen-powered truck will offer heavy-duty capability and clean emissions.
On October 27 Reuters reported:
Toyota-Panasonic battery JV to boost efficiency to catch up with Chinese rivals. A joint battery venture of Toyota Motor Corp and Panasonic Corp aims to boost efficiency of development and production processes by 10 times to better compete with larger Chinese rivals, its chief said on Tuesday.
Ford (NYSE:F)
On October 15, Ford reported: "Electrified variants of passenger cars gain traction in Q3. Puma production shows strongest mHEV take rate with 74 percent mix."
On October 28, Ford reported: "Ford’s strong Q3 driven by higher demand, operating execution, with game-changing vehicle launches starting in fourth quarter."
- "......Readies for fourth-quarter launches of three anticipated, all-new vehicles: 2021 F-150, all-electric Mustang Mach-E, and Bronco Sport –first of new Bronco family of products......"
Nio Inc. (NIO)
On October 2, Nio Inc. reported:
NIO Inc. provides September and third quarter 2020 delivery update. NIO delivered 4,708 vehicles in September 2020, increasing by 133.2% year-over-year. NIO delivered 12,206 vehicles in the three months ended September 2020, increasing by 154.3% year-over-year....
On October 14 Seeking Alpha reported:
Nio +9% after JPMorgan picks as premium space winner in China......"We expect Nio to be a long term winner in the premium space among Chinese brands vs. Xpeng leading the mass market, while BYD should likely see strong EV demand with rising external battery sales from 2022," write analyst Nick Lai and team. The firm believes the NEV market in China is not a "winner takes all" but sees a "rising tide lifts all boats" scenario."
XPeng Inc. (Xiaopeng Motors) (XPEV)
On September 25 Benzinga reported: "UBS initiates coverage on XPeng with buy rating, announces price target of $25."
On September 28 Seeking Alpha reported:
XPeng gets government support for new smart EV manufacturing base in Guangzhou....Guangdong Xiaopeng Motors Technology, a wholly owned subsidiary of XPeng in China will receive RMB4B financing from Guangzhou GET Investment Holdings to help fuel company's growth as well as support the construction of a new Smart EV manufacturing base for XPeng in the Guangzhou Economic and Technological Development Zone.
On October 4, XPeng reported:
XPeng announces vehicle delivery results in September and third quarter of 2020. XPeng achieved a record month of 3,478 Smart EV deliveries in September 2020, a 31% increase from August and a 145% increase year-over-year. The deliveries consisted of 2,573 P7s, the Company’s smart sports sedan, and 905 G3s, its compact smart SUV. In the third quarter of 2020, XPeng delivered a total of 8,578 Smart EVs, consisting of 6,210 P7s and 2,368 G3s, representing an increase of 266% year-over-year. “We are pleased to have achieved a record month of deliveries, which demonstrates our ability to execute our strategy, accelerate sales of our Smart EVs and expand our service and charging network,” said Mr. He Xiaopeng, Chairman and CEO of XPeng.
On October 14 Seeking Alpha reported:
....JPMorgan......"We expect Nio to be a long term winner in the premium space among Chinese brands vs. Xpeng leading the mass market, while BYD should likely see strong EV demand with rising external battery sales from 2022," write analyst Nick Lai and team.....
On October 20, XPeng reported: "XPeng completes production of 10,000 units of P7 smart EV sedan."
You can read my recent Trend Investing article on XPeng Motors here.
Li-Auto (LI)
On October 2 Li-Auto announced:
Li Auto Inc.....an innovator in China’s new energy vehicle market, today announced that the Company delivered 3,504 Li ONEs in September 2020. The Company’s vehicle deliveries in the third quarter of 2020 reached 8,660 units, representing a 31.1% quarter-over-quarter increase.
General Motors/Chevrolet (NYSE:GM)
On October 16, Green Car Reports reported:
GMC Hummer EV plant set up for electric vehicles exclusively, renamed Factory Zero.....The factory, GM said, will be a launchpad for the company’s new generation of electric vehicles, led by the GMC Hummer EV SUT and SUV, as well as the Cruise Origin self-driving people-mover.
On October 20 CNBC reported:
GM unveils Hummer EV as ‘world’s first supertruck’ for $112,600 starting in 2021...... A $99,995 version will be available a year later, followed by $89,995 and $79,995 models in the springs of 2023 and 2024, respectively.
2022 GMC Hummer EV sport utility truck
On October 20 CNBC reported:
GM to invest more than $2 billion in U.S. manufacturing to increase electric vehicle production...... Since March 2019, GM has committed to invest more than $4.5 billion in three U.S. manufacturing sites to prepare for EV-related production. The company has previously said it plans to release at least 20 new electric vehicles globally by 2023...... Roughly $2 billion of that money will go toward a plant in Spring Hill, Tennessee, for production of future electric vehicles, including the recently unveiled Cadillac Lyriq crossover.
GM's Cadillac Lyriq crossover BEV
On October 20, General Motors reported: "GM Investing $2 billion to transition Spring Hill, Tennessee Plant to build electric vehicles, including Cadillac LYRIQ."
Tata Motors (TTM) group (Jaguar, Land Rover)
On October 1, Tata Motors reported:
Tata Motors registered domestic sales of 1,06,888 units in Q2 FY21.....The company also sold 924 EVs in Q2 FY21, with an encouraging response received for Nexon EV.”
On October 24, Tata Motors reported: "Tata Motors consolidated Q2 FY21 results: EBIT breakeven and positive free cash flows delivered in the quarter."
- ".....Electrified portfolio expanded to include seven plug-in hybrid (PHEV) and nine mild-hybrid [MHEV] models."
On October 15 Reuters reported:
Fisker closes deal for supplier Magna (Magna International Inc. [TSX:MG] (MGA) to build its SUV, take stake in startup.....As part of the deal, Magna will receive warrants to purchase a stake of up to 6% in Fisker.....Magna retrofits vehicles for Alphabet's Waymo and builds vehicles for BMW AG, Daimler AG's Mercedes-Benz and Tata Motors Ltd's Jaguar Land Rover at its plant in Graz, Austria. Fisker is targeting initial sales of 8,000 SUVs in 2022, 51,000 in 2023 and 175,000 in 2024. Fisker and Magna are in talks with major EV battery manufacturers about supplying the necessary batteries, a Fisker spokesman said.
Note: Magna also will provide the underlying platform for the all-electric SUV.
On October 22 Electrive reported:
Danish ride-hailing company Viggo orders 300 Fisker Ocean.......Fisker has agreed to deliver them in the fourth quarter of 2022.
On October 28 Henrik Fisker tweeted in regard to the SPAQ merger: "YES! $SPAQ All approvals have passed!" See here.
Fisker Ocean set to be built by Magna in Austria starting late 2022 and scaling rapidly
Source: Henrik Fisker Twitter
You can read my Trend Investing article on Fisker Inc. here. Also a recent Kramer interview with Henrik Fisker here.
Lordstown Motors (RIDE)
On October 27, Green Car Reports reported:
Lordstown Motors becomes publicly traded, before delivering its electric trucks. Lordstown Motors hasn't delivered a single vehicle yet, but it is now a publicly-traded company. The electric-truck firm began trading on the NASDAQ Monday, under the ticker symbol "RIDE."
Lordstown Endurance
Workhorse Group Inc. (WKHS)
On October 12, PR Newswire reported:
Workhorse secures $200 million financing from institutional lenders......entered into a note purchase agreement (the "NPA") under which it will sell $200 million aggregate principal amount of its 4.0% Senior Secured Convertible Notes due 2024 (the "Notes") to two institutional lenders. The proceeds of the offering before expenses are expected to be approximately $194.5 million and will be used to increase and accelerate production volume, advance new products to market, replace previous higher cost financings, and support current working capital and other general corporate purposes. In addition, Workhorse has entered into an exchange agreement (the "Exchange Agreement") with the holder of its existing 4.5% convertible notes (the "Existing Notes") to exchange the full $70.0 million outstanding principal amount of those notes for shares of the Company's common stock. After the closing and release of the proceeds, the Company will have over $270 million in cash available.
On October 16, PR Newswire reported: "Workhorse closes $200 million financing from Institutional Lenders."
Hyliion Holdings (HYLN)
On September 28, Hyliion Holdings announced: "Tortoise acquisition shareholders just approved its merger with Hyliion."
On October 23, Austin Business Journal reported:
As electric vehicles take off, Hyliion prepares to ramp up production after going public. Revenue is $1M this year but $344M projected by 2022.
Canoo Holdings (CNOO)/ Hennessy Capital Acquisition (NASDAQ:HCAC) merger
No significant news for the month.
Nikola Corporation (NKLA)
On October 1, Reuters reported:
Nikola CEO confident of closing deal with energy partner, shares up almost 21%. “We’ve talked to all of those folks and those discussions are continuing,” he said in an interview. “We’re confident that we’re still going to hit the milestones laid out there of announcing a partner by the end of the year and getting stations going starting next year.”
On October 19, Green Car Reports reported:
Nikola "base plan" might drop Badger electric pickup if GM deal falls through. As its deal with General Motors remains in limbo, Nikola Motors executives this week talked up reverting to a "base plan," and dropping the Badger electric pickup truck GM was to help launch. Nikola first discussed building hydrogen fuel-cell semi trucks—and a network of hydrogen stations for them—before unveiling the Badger, a battery-electric truck with what is essentially a fuel-cell range extender.
Lucid Motors (formerly Atieva) (private)
On October 14, Lucid Air reported:
Lucid Motors expands luxury EV lineup with its most attainable Lucid Air model yet, featuring 406 miles of range and 480 horsepower from just $69,900.....
Lucid Air
Rivian Automotive (private)
On October 8, The Verge reported: "Amazon unveils its new electric delivery vans built by Rivian. The delivery giant aims to have 10,000 vehicles on the road by 2022."
Amazon new electric delivery van built by Rivian
Faraday Future (private)
On October 2, Automotive News China reported:
Faraday Future engaged in talks to go public through merger, CEO says. Electric vehicle startup Faraday Future aims to close a deal soon to go public through a reverse merger with a special-purchase acquisition company [SPAC], its CEO said on Monday. "We are working on such a deal ... and will be able to announce something hopefully quite soon," Carsten Breitfeld said of the possibility of a SPAC deal. Breitfeld declined to say who Faraday is negotiating with or when a deal would close.
EV fleet purchasing & financing
Ideanomics Inc. (IDEX)
On October 15, Ideanomics Inc. reported: "Ideanomics announces MEG September and Q3 sales activity." Highlights include:
- "A total of 423 units delivered in September.
- A total of 626 units delivered in Q3.
- An additional 440 units were invoiced in Q3 and are pending delivery."
On October 22, Ideanomics Inc. reported: "Ideanomics invests in California-based e-Tractor Company, Solectrac." Highlights include:
- Ideanomics acquires a 15% stake in e-Tractor company Solectrac, whose mission is to offer farmers independence from the pollution, infrastructure, and price volatility associated with fossil fuels.
- According to Research And Markets, the global agricultural tractor market is currently valued at $75 billion and poised for rapid growth.
- The largest segment for agricultural tractors is the below 40HP segment, where Solectrac's initial three models address the broad needs of the market."
Three wheel EV companies
Arcimoto Inc. (FUV)
On October 26, Businesswire reported:
Arcimoto partners with DHL to provide nationwide home delivery of electric fun utility vehicles. “This partnership represents an incredible milestone for Arcimoto and our direct-to-customer sales model. As we plan for mass production, a seamless delivery solution from our factory is vitally important,” said Arcimoto Founder and CEO, Mark Frohnmayer. .... Using its digital logistics solutions, DHL Global Forwarding will deliver the FUV directly to customers’ homes.
You can read my Arcimoto Trend Investing article here, and my recent CEO interview here.
Electrameccanica Vehicles Corp. (SOLO)
On October 6, Electrameccanica Vehicles Corp. reported:
ElectraMeccanica names Arizona and Tennessee as two finalist states for SOLO EV U.S. Assembly Facility and Engineering Technical Center.
Other EV or EV related companies
Other EV companies I am following include Atlis Motors, Ayro, Inc. (AYRO), Blink Charging (BLNK), Byton (private), Chery Automobile Co. Ltd. (private), Didi Chuxing, Dyson (private), Evergrande, Great Wall Motors, GreenPower Motor Company Inc. [TSXV:GPV] (GP), Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Honda [TYO:7267] (HMC) (OTCPK:HNDAF), Mahindra & Mahindra (OTC:MAHDY), Mazda (OTCPK:MZDAY), Niu Technologies (NIU), Qiantu Motor, Subaru (OTCPK:FUJHY), Suzuki Motor Corp. [TYO: 7269] (OTCPK:SZKMY) (OTCPK:SZKMF), WM Motor, and Zhi Dou (private).
The list of countries and cities banning (or planning to ban) petrol and diesel vehicles include at least - Norway (2025), Netherlands (2030), China (25% EVs by 2025), Germany (?2030), Hong Kong (2030-40), Ireland (2030), Israel (2030), India (30% by 2030), Scotland (2032), UK (2035), France (2040), Taiwan (2040), Singapore (2040), Japan (2050); Rome (2024), Athens (2025), Paris (2025), London, Stuttgart, Mexico City (2025), Madrid (2025), Amsterdam, Brussels, Hainan (2030), California (2035).
Autonomous Driving/Connectivity/Onboard entertainment/Ride sharing (TaaS)/ EV leasing/renting
On October 16 Techcrunch reported:
Cruise can now test driverless vehicles on the streets of San Francisco..... The driverless permit, which means no humans will be behind the wheel, comes with certain restrictions. The Cruise vehicles are designed to operate on roads with posted speed limits not exceeding 30 miles per hour, during all times of the day and night, but will not test during heavy fog or heavy rain......Cruise is the fifth company to be issued the driverless permit in California. Waymo, AutoX, Nuro and Zoox also have driverless permits.
On October 19 Seeking Alpha reported:
Cruise gives chase to Waymo in autonomous tech battle. Ark Research analyst Tasha Keeney.... says Cruise is in all likelihood about two years behind Waymo (GOOG) (GOOGL), which is ramping toward a full commercial autonomous taxi network launch in Phoenix. "ARK's research suggests that the autonomous driving industry will submit to natural geographic monopolies thanks to the amount of location-specific driving data necessary to launch. With high vehicle utilization rates, first movers will be able to collect 'big data' and build significant barriers to entry...... "With the largest autonomous-capable fleet in the world, Tesla could have a significant advantage over competitors. GM's scale and manufacturing capability could provide Cruise with a competitive advantage over Waymo, which outsources production to traditional automakers....
BNEF 2020 forecasts by fleet type
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance [BNEF] 2020 EV report
Conclusion
September 2020 global electric car sales smashed all past records up 91% YoY hitting a record 4.9% global market share (3.4% YTD), 6.3% share in China, 12% in Europe, and no updated figures for the US.
Highlights for the month were:
- EV battery fires may cause manufacturers to reconsider battery safety systems, including battery chemistry.
- New Jersey follows California's suit in banning gas car sales....by 2035.
- UBS forecasts US$100kWh batteries by 2022, EV/ICE parity by 2024 and says: “There are not many reasons left to buy an ICE car after 2025”. UBS says electric cars’ market share would reach 17% by 2025 and 40% by 2030.
- China’s electric car strategy is starting to go global, US is lagging behind. UBS says out of 142 lithium-ion battery megafactories under construction globally, 107 are set for China.
- Biden campaign tells miners it supports domestic production of EV metals.
- Electrified cars outsell diesel for first time across Europe.
- Tesla to enter India starting in 2021. Morgan Stanley hails Tesla's mobility service upside. Tesla achieves fifth consecutive profitable quarter, guidance remains at 500,000 deliveries in 2020. Tesla is recalling about 30,000 imported vehicles in China due to suspension problems. Tesla announces up to $12 billion investment for electric car and battery factories in just two years.
- By 2023 BMW Group to offer no fewer than 25 electrified models.
- The SAIC-Volkswagen ID.4 X China production has begun, capacity of 300,000 EVs pa.
- Renault beats revenue estimates as electric-car sales surge. Renault Dacia Spring to be Europe's cheapest electric car come spring at ~US$23,000.
- Mercedes plans a new slew of EVs, starting with bigger models first.
- GM unveils Hummer EV as "world’s first supertruck" for $112,600 starting in 2021. GM's Cadillac Lyriq crossover BEV to follow.
- Toyota-Panasonic battery JV to boost efficiency by 10x to catch up with Chinese rivals.
- JPMorgan's Chinese EV picks - Nio (premium market), XPeng (mass market), and BYD Co.
- XPeng - UBS buy rating and PT of $25. XPeng gets government support for new smart EV manufacturing base in Guangzhou. XPeng record deliveries.
- Fisker closes deal for supplier Magna and targets to reach 175,000 EV sales pa in 2024. Fisker merger with SPAQ completes successfully.
- Lordtown Motors and Hyliion Holdings both complete their SPAC mergers.
- Faraday Future engaged in talks to go public through [SPAC] merger.
- Arcimoto partners with DHL to provide nationwide home delivery of electric fun utility vehicles.
- Cruise can now test driverless vehicles on the streets of San Francisco. Ark Research says Cruise is in all likelihood about two years behind Waymo. With the largest autonomous-capable fleet in the world, Tesla could have a significant advantage over competitors.
As usual all comments are welcome.
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